Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 95 - 8/12/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:18Hello, and welcome to episode 95 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:24Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:27I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:34Happy Monday, a new week begins. Can you believe it?
- 0:38We're almost halfway through August, the summers flying by,
- 0:41footballs in the air, but we're still going to grind some Major
- 0:44League Baseball. Today I got a 5 pack of sweats
- 0:47for you, including a bunch of short favorites.
- 0:49Got a lot of steam, some reverse line movement.
- 0:52We got some trendy dogs here to fade.
- 0:54So I'm looking forward to a big Major League Baseball day with
- 0:56you guys in the arena. 5 pack. You guys know the drill.
- 0:59Let's try to go three and two eek out a winning day.
- 1:02Now, how was your weekend? I think you had a good weekend
- 1:05because most importantly, we extended are biting winning
- 1:09streak to nine straight. That's right, our ninth straight
- 1:12win on a Saturday. You love to see it.
- 1:15And the model once again came through Jana Santos getting it
- 1:18done for the team. Why do we pick Jana Santos?
- 1:21Well, she had a really sharp line move -125 to around -145
- 1:26even crept up. It might have even closed around
- 1:28-150 - 160 half the tickets, but nearly eight out of $10.00.
- 1:33So we had low bets, higher dollars, sharp line move.
- 1:35Now, she didn't have the youth or the height, but she had a
- 1:38reach advantage, more significant strikes per minute.
- 1:41I think that is such an important stat when you're
- 1:43betting UFC. Remember she had 4.16 per
- 1:46minute. Her opponent Chandler had 3.45.
- 1:49And the reason why that's important is because when you
- 1:51when you're and if you're watching this fight like I was,
- 1:53I always love it when it's on like ABC or ESPNI don't have to
- 1:57get all my friends together and and split the money and then pay
- 1:59for pay-per-view. But it was so important because
- 2:02we identified the fact that, hey, she's more offensive and
- 2:04you always want more significant strikes per minute because if it
- 2:07goes to decision, that's going to be, you know, scorecards are
- 2:10going to show, hey, this person had way more offense than the
- 2:13opponent. And if you watch that bout,
- 2:15Santos tons of leg kicks much more, you know, offensive
- 2:19minded. And that was a big part as well
- 2:21as our striking accuracy and also desperate off of off of
- 2:25three losses, facing better competition, more experience in
- 2:28the UFC chef's kiss, Yana Santos biting, extending the UFC St. to
- 2:34nine straight baby. So I'm already waiting for
- 2:36Saturday, trying to make it 10 straight again.
- 2:39Going to kind of keep keep my distance here.
- 2:41Let the dust settle, wait for that e-mail from my buddy John
- 2:44Ewing like we try to do every Friday and get down in a sharp
- 2:48contrarian. Hopefully if we can go sharp
- 2:50contrarian, low bets, higher dollars as well as the younger,
- 2:53taller, longer reach. We love that as well.
- 2:55So anyway, I know you had a good weekend with Santos coming
- 2:58through in the arena. We're going to turn the page
- 3:00here guys. Again, win, lose or draw model
- 3:02stays the same. We're looking for sharp
- 3:04contrarian plays, data-driven bats, and I got 5 for you A5
- 3:07pack in Major League Baseball today.
- 3:09So without further ado, let's not waste any more time.
- 3:11Let's get right into it. So first put on the board for me
- 3:15a 6:40 PM Eastern Time first pitch, the Saint Louis Cardinals
- 3:18and the Cincinnati Reds. Now a little background here,
- 3:21the Cardinals 60 and 58, they just split A2 game series
- 3:24against the Royals, lost the finale on Saturday, 8:00 to 3:00
- 3:28as a + 105 road dog. Meanwhile, the Reds 57 and 61,
- 3:32they just dropped to a three against the Brewers.
- 3:35Did avoid the sweep though, had a win yesterday, four to three
- 3:37in the finale as a + 115 road dog.
- 3:40So for this series opener, Cardinals are going to go with
- 3:43the ready Sunny Gray. The veteran is 11 and six with a
- 3:463.65 ERA this year. Meanwhile, the Reds are going to
- 3:49go with the lefty Andrew Abbott, who's 9:00 and 9:00 with a 3.7 O
- 3:52ERA. So what have we seen across the
- 3:54market here? Well, good sharp steam in favor
- 3:57of the road favorite. I'm going Cardinals, guys.
- 3:59Cardinals open this game as low as a -, 120 -, 125 road
- 4:04favorite. Now the Cardinals are up to -135
- 4:07even -140 And when I wrote about this around noontime or around
- 4:11noon, 12:30 for vsyn.com, which I always read the sharp reports
- 4:15for. You can always check them out
- 4:17prior to the pod. Think of it as maybe a little
- 4:19appetizer before the main course of the all systems go pod
- 4:22powered by rhythm. But I got down on the Cardinals
- 4:24at -135 so now they're up to -140 again, great sign when you
- 4:29have consistent movement and steam with no buyback.
- 4:31On the one hand, you can say, hey, you laid a 135, I got to
- 4:34lay 140. I'm not happy about that, which
- 4:37is true. You're paying a more expensive
- 4:38price, but ask yourself, why has it gotten more expensive?
- 4:41Because more smart money has come in.
- 4:43So it's always a good sign when there's consistent movement in
- 4:46One Direction with no buyback. Now, the thing I also like about
- 4:49the Cardinals is they're really not that popular.
- 4:50They're only getting around 60% of bets.
- 4:53So again, 60% a line really shouldn't move.
- 4:56You know what, $0.20, something like that.
- 4:58It should probably be a little less.
- 5:00However, telling us only 60% bets, that means the majority of
- 5:03money, not the tickets, but the money.
- 5:05The big respected money is coming in on the Cardinals.
- 5:08Now. The Cardinals are matching quite
- 5:09a few betting systems here. If you look at favorites off a
- 5:12loss, playing an opponent off a win.
- 5:14One of our just classic buy low sell high spots. 381 and 261
- 5:18this year, 59% with a 2% ROI. Rd. favorites getting steam
- 5:23$0.10 or more, 65 and 3764% with a 7% ROI.
- 5:30You also have a nice rest first tired advantage.
- 5:33Cardinals did not play yesterday and the Reds did play and they
- 5:36were in Milwaukee. So Saint Louis had a day off
- 5:39since he had a play in Milwaukee announced to travel back to
- 5:42Cincinnati. So Saint Louis, all their
- 5:44position players got and they got a lot of veterans, guys
- 5:47like, you know, Goldschmidt and Arenado, extra day of rest as
- 5:51well as your bullpen versus Cincinnati who had to play
- 5:53again. That's a rest first tired
- 5:55advantage in favor of the Cardinals.
- 5:56I'm also going to bank on the bats of Saint Louis.
- 5:58They're hitting 247 this year versus only 2:30 for Cincinnati.
- 6:03And digging into these pictures a little bit, I want to back
- 6:05Sonny Gray. I want to bet against Abbott.
- 6:07Sonny Gray has a 2.57 ERA in two August starts.
- 6:10He's only given up four runs in 14 innings pitched.
- 6:14Abbott, by the way, has a 7.71 ERA in two August starts, giving
- 6:18up eight earned runs and about 9.1 innings pitched.
- 6:21So again, you've seen Gray better than Abbott.
- 6:23We got a good steam move towards towards Saint Louis Reds, by the
- 6:27way, O and four and Abbott's last four starts.
- 6:29So the Saint Louis Cardinals team, they're madding to me.
- 6:32I feel like I bet on them, they lose, I bet against them, they
- 6:34win. This is just for whatever
- 6:35reason, one of my bugaboo teams this year, but they're starting
- 6:38to play a little bit better. They're fighting for a playoff
- 6:41spot. Reds are kind of going the other
- 6:42way. I'm going to follow the good
- 6:44sharps team. Give me the Saint Louis
- 6:45Cardinals on the money line. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first
- 6:49pitch early start here tonight. Guys, let's go around -135 now
- 6:53you're up to around as high as -140 keep on cruising.
- 6:57Another early one, Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays.
- 7:01This is a 6:50 PM Eastern Time. First pitch down at the Trop.
- 7:04Astros come in 62 and 55. Just swept my Red Sox.
- 7:08They cruise 1:50 yesterday as a -, 145 road favorite.
- 7:12Meanwhile, the Rays, who are 59 and 58, just dropped two or
- 7:15three against the Orioles but did avoid the sweep.
- 7:17Had a big two to one win yesterday as a -. 115 home
- 7:20favorite. So in tonight's series opener
- 7:23pitching matchup, the Strohs are going to go with lefty Framber
- 7:26Valdez, who's 11 and five with a 3.46 ERA.
- 7:29Meanwhile, the Rays are going to go with the ready Taj Bradley,
- 7:33who's six and six with a three-point O 7 ERA.
- 7:35So what do we see across the market here?
- 7:37Well, if you like Saint Louis, thank you.
- 7:39Like Houston, same sort of thing here.
- 7:41We had Houston open as a very short Rd. favorite around -115
- 7:45and we've now seen the Astros get bet up to around -125 even
- 7:48-130 so consistent movement in favor of Houston.
- 7:52Now the Strohs, they're getting 79% of bets, but 87% of dollars.
- 7:57So nice low bets, higher dollars bet split with pro and Joe
- 8:00action as well as that good steam move in their favor and
- 8:03then rattle off a few systems here.
- 8:04Non division Rd. favorites off a win.
- 8:06They're 138 and 9958% with a 3% ROI.
- 8:11You also have the sweet spot short Rd. favorite system match.
- 8:14If you're a road favorite -130 or less.
- 8:16Those teams are 178 and one 4256% because you're laying
- 8:21shorter juice there. It's a 4% ROI.
- 8:23Now I'm going to bank on the Astros offense.
- 8:26If you watch the series against the Red Sox, man, they were
- 8:28they're just hitting bombs left and right, clearing the monster,
- 8:32Bregman and Alvarez yesterday. But if you look at the offense
- 8:35overall, big advantage for Houston.
- 8:37They're hitting 262 on the year, 137 homers, 542 runs scored.
- 8:43Tampa Bay, meanwhile, hitting only 234 with 110 homers, 460
- 8:48runs scored. Now we have classic favorite low
- 8:50total correlative betting value with Houston told this one is 7
- 8:541/2 and it's actually been bet down.
- 8:56I believe it's some shops down to seven.
- 8:57So the fact that lines moving toward the favorite Houston, the
- 9:00totals dropping and hopefully this is a three to one three
- 9:03nothing win that kind of game. But you would have that
- 9:05correlative betting fair amount of expected runs scored more
- 9:08likely to come from that better team was favored to win.
- 9:11By the way, Houston 8 and O and Valdez's last eight starts, he's
- 9:14only he's given up two earned runs or less and four of his
- 9:17last five starts. He's really pitching well.
- 9:19Bradley, by the way, he had a really good kind of, I don't
- 9:22know, three or four start streak going, but he's kind of gone the
- 9:25other way. He has an 8.8 O ERA.
- 9:28In his last two starts, he's giving up nine runs and 9.2
- 9:31innings pitched. So again, if you like Saint
- 9:33Louis, you like Houston. Rd.
- 9:34Favorite. Good sharp steam, bunch of good
- 9:37system matches here, better bats.
- 9:38I'm going to back Valdez and go Houston here.
- 9:41Shop around. I got Houston at -125 keep on
- 9:45cruising. LA Dodgers visiting the
- 9:47Milwaukee Brew Crew now going to this one.
- 9:50We have the Dodgers, who are now on the year 69 and 49.
- 9:55They just swept the Pirates, winning three straight in Los
- 10:00Angeles. Meanwhile, the Brew Crew just
- 10:02mentioned them. They took two or three against
- 10:03Cincinnati. They're 67 and 50 on the year.
- 10:05So what have we seen across the market?
- 10:08Well, let's first start off with the pitching matchup.
- 10:10We have the the Dodgers going with the ageless Wander the
- 10:14lefty Clayton Kershaw O and two 4.3 ERA.
- 10:18Opposing pitcher will be Freddy Peralta, the righty seven and
- 10:21six with a four point O2 ERA. What have we seen across the
- 10:25market? Well, this looks like a good
- 10:27sharp steam move and a good buy. Low opportunity on the Dodgers.
- 10:31This game open at most shops with Milwaukee listed as a very
- 10:34short favorite -110 -, 115. We're basically on a pick em now
- 10:38-110 -, 1 O 5 both sides. I'm even seeing some shops hop
- 10:42the fence and maybe go Dodgers short favorite like -110 -, 115.
- 10:47So it's notable to me that we've seen this movement all one sided
- 10:50in favor of LA and there's a lot of reasons to like the Dodgers
- 10:53in the spot. So #1 aside from the line move,
- 10:56a lot of betting systems. If you look at non division Rd.
- 11:00favorites off a win, again, it's a pick em type game.
- 11:02But you are seeing some shops Dodgers, that's technically the
- 11:05favorite non division Rd. favorite off a win. 58 percent,
- 11:093% ROI this year. Short Rd. faves -130 or less the
- 11:12sweet spot system match favorite low total total in this one is
- 11:178. We also have kind of a value
- 11:19plan on the Dodgers. Like I have a system here.
- 11:21If you look at the Dodgers and I call them value value play when
- 11:25they're -150 or less, that may seem kind of high, but basically
- 11:29either your, your favorite, it's a, it's a favorite value place.
- 11:32So you got to be a favorite, but a short favorite of -150 or less
- 11:36this year in that situation. Because again, dodgers are
- 11:39typically laying -200 or more. They're 22 and 1363 percent, 12%
- 11:45ROI over the last three years in this spot, 73 and 3965 percent,
- 11:5115% ROI. So again, if, if the Dodgers are
- 11:54typically getting 90% of bets -200 if they're basically a pick
- 11:58em, hey, that's a value play that I want to make on LA.
- 12:02Now, if we are looking at these pitchers a little bit more,
- 12:06Kershaw is making his fourth start of the year.
- 12:08So he's actually gotten better in each start.
- 12:10So I think the more kind of, you know, experience, obviously he's
- 12:13an experienced pitcher, but coming off a major injury kind
- 12:16of getting into the groove, he's trending in an upward direction.
- 12:19Peralta's going the other way. The Brewers are two and four in
- 12:22his last six starts. He's got an area of 4.4 O at
- 12:25home versus 3.66 on the road. Also batting average about even
- 12:30both these teams around 2:50-ish.
- 12:32But more explosive offense is LA.
- 12:34They've hit 156 homers, only 126 for Milwaukee.
- 12:39They scored 582 runs, 570 for Milwaukee.
- 12:42And if you remember, I'm kind of surprised Milwaukee still
- 12:46playing pretty decent. But Christian Yelich I believe
- 12:48is out for the year out indefinitely.
- 12:50So I think at some point maybe water seeps, seeps its level
- 12:54here and maybe Milwaukee misses, misses Yelich in games like
- 12:59this. Also Dodgers, I don't know if
- 13:02you mentioned this, 2IN1 head to head against Milwaukee.
- 13:05So again, this is a value play. If you're giving me Dodgers with
- 13:08a good sharp line, move dog to fave or dog to pick them, pick
- 13:12them price in a value spot. I'm going to make that bet every
- 13:15time. So give me Dodgers.
- 13:17Shop around. I was able to get the Dodgers at
- 13:19-110 keep on cruising. This number crept up quite a
- 13:23bit. Hopefully you can get them under
- 13:25-200 maybe around -195 I'm talking the San Diego fathers at
- 13:30home against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
- 13:33Now set the stage for this one. There's a late game tonight.
- 13:36Put on a pot of coffee. You got two late games for you,
- 13:38this one. And then I'm going to talk
- 13:39Atlanta and San Fran in a second.
- 13:41But 9:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch, the Pirates come in 56
- 13:45and 61. It just got swept by the
- 13:47Dodgers. Lost six to five yesterday as a
- 13:49big plus. 221 Rd. dog. Meanwhile, the Padres, they are
- 13:5466 and 53, just took two or three against the Marlins but
- 13:59did not complete the sweep in that one.
- 14:01They lost seven to six yesterday as a -. 200 Rd. favorite in
- 14:05tonight's series opener, the Pirates are going to go to the
- 14:07lefty Marco Gonzalez. He's one in one of the 4.5 O
- 14:10ERA. Padres are going to go with
- 14:12ready Joe Musgrove. More on him in a bit.
- 14:14He's three and four of the 5.66 area, but he's coming off 60 day
- 14:18injured list. So what are we seeing across the
- 14:20market here? Well, massive steam in favor of
- 14:23San Diego. The Padres open this game as low
- 14:26as -165 not seeing them get bet up upwards of now -200 so it's
- 14:31always important to me to try to get a team just a little bit
- 14:35less than -200 I always think about it as you know, if you lay
- 14:38-200 always bet Tris first bet to when you're risking one unit,
- 14:42you're getting a half unit back. You can get me like, you know,
- 14:45.52 units back, .54 units back. Whole point being is, you know,
- 14:50if you're able to stack a little bit more than 1/2 overall, it
- 14:53could lead you to a winning night when you kind of calculate
- 14:56all your place together. So I was able to get San Diego
- 14:59at -190 I do see a couple -190 fives out there.
- 15:02I also see some -2 hundreds. So just shop around.
- 15:05As always have multiple outs try to find something sub -200 but a
- 15:09massive steam move toward the Padres San Diego, 84% of bets,
- 15:13nearly 90% of money. So low bets, higher dollars and
- 15:17really one sided action in their favor from both pros and joes
- 15:20along with that huge, you know, 35 cent steam move home
- 15:24favorites off a loss with a winning record against teams
- 15:26with a losing record who missed the playoffs the previous year.
- 15:29Really good system match would match here on Padres with the
- 15:33dads. They are 55 and 2966% with a 3%
- 15:37ROI this year. San Diego is 7 and 278 percent.
- 15:4133% ROI as a favorite in August. They're actually the best chalk
- 15:45team this month. Padres also had that correlative
- 15:47betting favorite low total almost.
- 15:49I do see some shops creeping up to 8 1/2 but some shops are
- 15:53still at 8 that would technically be favorite low
- 15:55total. Also non division favorite.
- 15:57Lack of familiarity benefiting the better team that would match
- 16:00with San Diego and also the offense.
- 16:02I'm going to bank on San Diego's offense playing well.
- 16:05Hopefully they're hitting 266 on the year, 136 homers, 569 runs
- 16:10scored. Pittsburgh's only hitting 235
- 16:13with 117 homers, 493 runs scored.
- 16:17Padres are three and O against the Pirates this year.
- 16:20San Diego is 8 and two over their last ten games, hitting
- 16:23287 with a 3.33 ERA. Pittsburgh's one and nine over
- 16:28the last 10, hitting 260 through the 5.92 ERA.
- 16:31And we do have Musgrove coming back from the 60 ADL, but it
- 16:35looks like he's overcome his injury and hopefully he'll pitch
- 16:39well here for us tonight. So you add it all up.
- 16:41I know it's a kind of a expensive price.
- 16:44Try to find something sub 200. I'm going.
- 16:46San Diego fathers, let's go Dad at -190 keep on cruising.
- 16:51Last bit of the night, staying up late.
- 16:53Atlanta Braves, San Francisco G men.
- 16:57Now, this one is interesting for a variety of reasons.
- 17:00Let's set the stage though for this one.
- 17:01The Braves come in 61 and 56. The Braves just lost two or
- 17:06three against Colorado. Did you guys see, I think it was
- 17:08yesterday they had a nine to two lead or 9, nothing or whatever.
- 17:12They give up seven runs in the ninth and lost to Colorado,
- 17:15which, man, if you had Atlanta yesterday, man, that's about as
- 17:19bad as it gets for a blown, blown win.
- 17:22Giants, meanwhile, just took two or three against Detroit.
- 17:25They're 61 and 59 on the year. So pitching matchup for tonight
- 17:29should be a pretty good matchup. And you can see the total is so
- 17:31low at 6 1/2. Why is it so low?
- 17:33Because he got 2 great lefties. Chris Sale is going for the
- 17:37Atlanta Braves. He's 13 and three with a 2.75
- 17:40ERA. Blake Snell, two and three, 4.31
- 17:44ERA. But that doesn't tell the whole
- 17:45story. I'm going to give me more
- 17:46numbers on Snell. We've been riding him recently
- 17:49and I'm riding him here again tonight.
- 17:51I'll tell you why I like San Francisco.
- 17:53So I'm going Giants. I got the Giants at -110 Here's
- 17:57why I like the Giants. The public is all over the
- 18:00Atlanta Braves. The Atlanta Braves are getting
- 18:0261% of bets, yet we actually saw this line flip dog to favorite
- 18:07in favor of the Giants. So nearly 2/3 of bets are on
- 18:10Atlanta. Atlanta opens around -110 -, 115
- 18:14road favorite. Even though Atlanta is getting
- 18:17majority of bets, this line is flipped toward San Francisco.
- 18:20So San Francisco went from, you know, minus one O 5 + 1 O 5
- 18:23short home dog to now laying -110 -, 115.
- 18:27So that tells me we have a fade the trendy dog Publix fading
- 18:30Atlanta going or Publix riding Atlanta sharps are fading
- 18:33Atlanta going with San Fran with that good sharp dog to fave RLM
- 18:38only getting 39% of bets is also the most heavily bet game of the
- 18:41night. So I want to be contrarian and
- 18:43go against the public and most heavily bet game of the night.
- 18:45Now if you look at San Francisco, they're 2IN1 head to
- 18:49head against Atlanta this year. But here are the stats that I'm
- 18:51leaning on. Favorite low total.
- 18:53Snell is now in the Giants are around a -. 110 - 115 favorite
- 18:58total. 6 1/2 if your amount of expected run scored.
- 19:01Again, correlative betting favorite low total but also non
- 19:05division favorite. Lack of familiarity benefiting
- 19:07who's favored to win, which would be San Fran Home Rd.
- 19:10splits. San Fran is 35 and 24 at home.
- 19:14Atlanta is 29 and 30 on the road.
- 19:17San Fran is hitting 265 against lefties this year.
- 19:21That's the 4th best in baseball. Atlanta is only hitting 255
- 19:25against lefties. That's 12th.
- 19:27So actually, you've seen the Giants better against lefties
- 19:30than Atlanta. You.
- 19:30That may not be what you would expect.
- 19:32Also, if you look at the last 10 games, Giants are seven and
- 19:35three, hitting 241 of the 3.74 ERA.
- 19:39Braves are three and seven. Now they're hitting 264, but a
- 19:427.16 ERA. Their pitching has really,
- 19:44really failed them and they're going up against a really good
- 19:47San Fran starter here tonight. Also wanted to mention this
- 19:51about Snell, but he is or the giants are five and one in his
- 19:56last six starts. Remember he threw the no no a
- 19:58few starts ago. He's got a 1.8 O ERA and two
- 20:01August starts at home. 3.67 ERA on the road 5 point O 8.
- 20:07So once I saw that this line started to flip dog to fave in
- 20:09favor of San Fran public on Atlanta, but line was going to
- 20:13the G men. I said I got to go G men in the
- 20:15spot. So I'm staying up late.
- 20:17I'm an East Coaster and in the outskirts of Boston.
- 20:20And I'm going to watch the Giants and root like heck for
- 20:23them hopefully to win this game tonight.
- 20:25So shop around. I'm going G man got the Giants
- 20:29at -110 So Saint Louis, Houston, LA Dodgers, San Diego Padres,
- 20:35and the San Francisco Giants 5 pack.
- 20:37Can we get three or more? That's the goal.
- 20:40So that about does it for episode 95 of the All Systems Go
- 20:44Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 20:46This is the part of the pod where I ask a favor of you.
- 20:49Could you please make my day? And it'll only take two seconds,
- 20:53literally 2 seconds, maybe 3 seconds.
- 20:55OK. But could you please, if you
- 20:57enjoy this podcast, give it a 5 star review.
- 21:00I'm really trying to get the ratings up so we can gain more
- 21:03credibility, gain more eyeballs and watch this pod grow
- 21:05organically. But if you are listening on
- 21:07Spotify or iTunes, you have the option to rate and review.
- 21:11Could you please give it five stars?
- 21:13That really make my day. And I would really appreciate
- 21:15that as we continue to grow the pod getting ready for football
- 21:18season. Secondly, if you enjoy this
- 21:21podcast because of the style of betting that we teach every
- 21:25single day, data-driven, sharp, contrarian betting, No opinion,
- 21:29no parlays, no, I hope, I think, I want I I want this team's
- 21:34going to kill this team. Oh, why?
- 21:36Because this team's great. No, no, no, no opinion based
- 21:38betting. We bet based on what the market
- 21:41is telling us. Reading the market like Wall
- 21:43Street traders approach the stock market.
- 21:45If this style of betting focusing on line movement,
- 21:48system matches, bet splits, you know all the contrarian and
- 21:52sharp indicators that we look toward flat betting, not
- 21:54parlaying, grinding, grinding, grinding.
- 21:56If this style appeals to you, then guess what?
- 21:59I wrote a book and you might be interested in buying this book.
- 22:02Support the team, make me happy. But it's not just a charity.
- 22:05You're going to get something out of it whether you buy it for
- 22:07yourself or gift it to that buddy of yours who always
- 22:10parlays everything, loses all the time, but loves betting and
- 22:13wants to get become a better, better.
- 22:15Then guess what? Go to Amazon.com, type in the
- 22:18Everything Guide to Sports betting.
- 22:20Pick up a copy for you or for a friend.
- 22:22It would mean the world to me. Guys got everything.
- 22:24I've learned in the industry, how lines are set, how and why
- 22:27they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
- 22:30action, how to go contrarian, how to place a bet in person or
- 22:32online. Getting ready for football
- 22:34season, which is only a few weeks away, regular season that
- 22:37is. I have a full chapter on how to
- 22:39bet the NFL, so support the team.
- 22:42Buy my book, the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
- 22:44And if you pick it up, number one, I'm going to say thank you
- 22:46right now. If you've already picked it up
- 22:48or you're planning on it, I'll meet you at the sports book.
- 22:50I'll sign my book and I'll buy you a beer.
- 22:52That's a promise. And I'll buy a ginger ale.
- 22:55If you don't drink, that's fine too.
- 22:56And we'll sweat, sharpen train plays all night long.
- 22:59Lastly, before we get out of here, a couple things.
- 23:02One, have you taken advantage of Rhythm and have you taken
- 23:05advantage of Juice Reel, my two favorite sports betting apps?
- 23:08If you haven't, I want you to go sign up right now for a 7 day
- 23:11free trial. I use Juice Reel and Rhythm
- 23:13every single day. Our rhythm is unbelievably sharp
- 23:16for data-driven bets, including game bets and models and
- 23:20predictions as well as player props.
- 23:22Right now we're going to get WNBA coming back to Rhythm.
- 23:25You have do have golf. We got football right around the
- 23:28corner as well as Juice Reel. Juice Reel had a huge sharp mush
- 23:31win for us last night. If you're on the Mariners and
- 23:33saw my tweet, but sharp mush opportunities.
- 23:36It locates where in the app the the sharpest and best winning
- 23:39betters are on team A, but the worst betters are on team B.
- 23:42It lets you know what those games are each day.
- 23:44Basically the top pro versus Joe bet.
- 23:46You can play the Robo Jackson best bet picks each day.
- 23:49Two of them which come out at noon every single afternoon, as
- 23:52well as the arbitrage bets syncing up your sports books,
- 23:56learning about yourself as a sports better, getting a running
- 23:58report card. These are two great apps.
- 24:00I want you guys to use them like I use them to help you win.
- 24:03So to go sign up, give it a 7 day free trial.
- 24:06All you got to do is click the bio description of this podcast.
- 24:09If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, there should be a
- 24:12link there and you want to click that custom link.
- 24:14You can also click it in my my Twitter profile at Josh under
- 24:17score insights. But that would mean a lot to me.
- 24:20And I know rhythm and juice real, they're they want to help
- 24:23you win. That's why I really like them.
- 24:24This isn't, you know, you know, touting for a sports book.
- 24:28This is helping the better win, which is what we're always
- 24:31trying to do. But go sign up.
- 24:32You're going to love juice real. You're going to love rhythm.
- 24:35Lastly, guys, of course, I'll leave you with a couple things.
- 24:38One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 24:41River in Rhode Island, the Brook in New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
- 24:45Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
- 24:48Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
- 24:51woods in Massachusetts. Actually just found out that my
- 24:53buddy came, came in a little bit of money and he's going to buy
- 24:57us all a suite where we can go to The MGM in Springfield in
- 25:00November and sweat some games together.
- 25:02That just came came about the other day.
- 25:04I'm looking forward to that. Or of course, out in the desert
- 25:06where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends
- 25:08his number number runners, where the lowest juice possible is
- 25:11found, the South point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays.
- 25:13Jumping in the stadium swimming pool at Circa.
- 25:16When you catch a big ticket, you're going to walk up to me.
- 25:19There's only 1 ticket. You're going to show me biting.
- 25:22Show me a Yana Santos. Huge winning bout.
- 25:26Fight for us. Low bets, higher dollars, sharp
- 25:29line move. More experience, more
- 25:30significant strikes per minute. Chefs kiss 9 straight baby and
- 25:34the UFC and guess what First one's on me, next one's on you
- 25:38again. We'll post about the book Sweat
- 25:39Sharp Contrarian plays all night long.
- 25:41Lastly, of course, parting words I leave you with at the end of
- 25:45every podcast. Stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
- 25:49against the public, place yourself on the side of the
- 25:51house. Always be with the smart money,
- 25:53never against it. Will smart money win every
- 25:55single game? Of course not.
- 25:57Betting is difficult. That's why when you win, you
- 25:59feel a sense of accomplishment. When you lose, don't get too
- 26:02down on yourself. It's a very difficult industry.
- 26:04We're trying to predict the unpredictable, but I can tell
- 26:07you this, if we stay true to the model against the public, with
- 26:10the house, with the with the pros, avoid parlays, get that
- 26:15CLV. If we can do that, we're going
- 26:16to be successful sports bettors. So we got a big night of MLB
- 26:20sweats, guys. Hope you have a fantastic
- 26:22Monday. We're going to come right back
- 26:23at it tomorrow for episode 96 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 26:27Betting pod powered by Rhythm. Have a great money and everybody
- 26:31good luck.