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NFL Conference Championship Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. Ime
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network Thursday,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: numbers have been moving a little bit for the conference
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: championship games in the a f C in the NFC
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: between the Bengals and the Chiefs and the Rams and
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: the Niners. Certainly, if numbers haven't been moving, opinions have
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: been solidifying. We're gonna break it all down. Me and
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: my BFF, Mikempadre and my companion, Mr. Professional Better Simon Hunter. Yeah,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: it's always better sweet, but it's like it's starting to
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: set in now. We only got three games left. I
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: love it. This is the best football, but it's I'm
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: gonna miss it all. The other day, I was I
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: don't know, probably slicing or smashing an avocado, or you know,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: getting some macadamia nuts in a bowl or whatever it is.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I thought to myself it was a little bit winsome
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: because I thought, there's not another Monday night football game
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: until September. It's amazing how long we go without football.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: It is, but it's also amazing how long the season is.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Like I was looking at our shows. We started doing
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: like I think in July, we started doing like divisions,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: and it's just crazy to think it's it's about to
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: be February. It's it's crazy how football now. It's it's
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: twelve months out of the year. They're like, again, we
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: joke we're going to the off season. Chad knows there
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: really is no off season for football. It's a joke
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: with Matt Mitchell. I have three phones. Who has three phones?
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Just football betters? Because just I got a phone for
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: my life, I got a phone for other professionals. I
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: have a phone now for runners. It's like the way
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: it is now, it's just crazy how much goes on
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: in the off season. Like like we talked last week
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: about the draft. That's probably one of the bigger things
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: going on with pros right now. Pros are getting ready
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: for the draft. So it's just it's just never anybody
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna miss the games for sure. Well let's
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: get to it, man. Normally, we do sharp calls where
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: we get some feedback from the other professional betters who
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: have listened to the show on Tuesday and have called
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: you and said, they hate what we're saying. They love
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: what we're saying. There's only two games, so instead of
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: sort of going directly into sharp calls, let's just assume
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: everything is a sharp call. The first game, the Bengals
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. This is this game is fascinating right
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: now because it's it's sitting on seven. I bet the
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Bengals at seven and a half. There was one book
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: as of this morning that still has seven and a
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: half legal book, Uh not Fandel, So I won't name
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: it specifically. I'm like, I gotta take the Bengals at
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: this point. I'm even inclined to take the Bengals at seven.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: The more I'm thinking about it, the more it's shaping
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: up like right spot, right matchup, right offense against the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: right defense to be able to keep this game close. Well,
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I saw that your old set employee, John, who works
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: for a said book you just talked about put out
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: there that over sixty percent of the money the bets
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: right now at that book is on the Bengals. So
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: it could be once again we talked about the seven
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: a half. Maybe it's just because of that, but they
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: haven't moved. They're getting all that money, Chad, and they
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: haven't moved. So talked to a bunch of pros. Of course,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: they love the Dogs this weekend, Like I knew. I
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: knew coming into it that I was gonna be an
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: island again. We talked last week the pros. I loved
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: the Bills. They love them, they really really did. And
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I took big bets. I sent out big bets for
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the Bills. I sent out really big bets with the
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Bucks too. They had a tough weekend last week, a
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: lot of these, so I'm not as scary as I
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: usually am when I'm talking to really legit pros and
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: they're like on the other side of me. I've looked
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: a couple that like the Chiefs as well, Like they
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: kind of view it from same point as me. It's
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: like we have a once in a generation talent my
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: homes and he just does not let us down, like
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: in these positions at home, doesn't let us down. And
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I I really do believe. Again, I don't want to
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: shoot on the Bengals because it's been an unreal year,
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Like this is an incredible run, but what are we
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: doing here? It's like they beat their car on short
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: rest at home and Derek car could have tied the
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: game slash one at the very end of that game.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: They just beat Tennessee on the road against Tennessee team.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: That what they put up nineteen points to beat Tennessee
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: like a lot. Like again, I keep talking about things
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: break your way. It's been great for the Bengals, and
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: that's why I don't want to shoot on them two
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: hard because I could see a way they could win
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: this game. Again, They've already beaten this Chiefs, this Chief's team.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: But me and Chad joked about during the season that
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: was at home and they were getting every little call
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: they needed, like oh, thirty and fifteen p I on
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs, like just kept working out for them, where
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs just did nothing that second half. Again, they
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: put up three points total in the second half against
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: this Bengals defense. So a lot of pros I've talked
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: to they think that the Bengals defense is better than
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: people give them credit for. And that's all fine and good,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: but I I told you last week, it really pissed
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: me off when people talk about these defenses when it's
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: like it's my homes. It's not your defense that's gonna
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: win you these matchups against my Homes. At your offense,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: you need to outscore him and then somehow get a
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: turnover against him. So I had nothing to change, buddy, Like,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: if you're giving me seven, I'm still gonna take it.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: I get why you're taking the seven half. I know
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: a bunch of the pros have taken the seven half,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: but I am starting to feel more and more comfortable
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: taking this Chief's team, knowing that so much Bangal money
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: is coming in, like people are betting them that's gonna
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: become a public dog. It's like last week with the Bills.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: If you were getting my homes, not with the public
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: at home, you're probably a good good value on that line.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: Let me play massive Devil's advocate, because a lot of
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: what you were talking about is Bengals winning. I don't
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: need the Bengals to win, and seven and a half
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: or seven just feels like a huge number, even with
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes, because it's not like the Chiefs have been
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: blowing people out this year, and we know that their
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: record when they've been big favorites over the past couple
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: of years has not been very good. And what we
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: love about Mahomes. What scares us about Mahomes is when
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: he is a short favorite betting against him like we
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: did with the Bills, but a big favorite in a
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: game with a quarterback across the line who it's pretty unfazed,
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: who's got explosive playmakers going against a defense that we
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: talked about as as it's improved talking about the Chiefs,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: but they're not good. They're not because h Allen just
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: carved him up. Guy. They haven't been good all year
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: whenever they've played, whenever they've played a good team. If
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: you look at Justin Herbert covering him up, look at
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: Teddy fucking Bridgewater covering them up in that goes Gate.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: It hasn't been one of those things where they're able
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: to blow teams out. Do you remember the name of
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: the backup for the Jets. Yeah, he was that guy.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: He had like that guy, like the guy who everyone
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: got off. He was like the current Warner for a week.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you're gonna shoot on the Chiefs defense
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: like the bangals over here, ain't really They didn't really
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: set the world on fire. And that's me says Okay,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Then then the play doesn't necessarily mean it's not a
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: side play. It's probably an over I just think I'm
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: looking at this and thinking more and more, we're just
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be an opposite side of this. I guess, yeah,
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: that's great, great for me. Um, I don't know that
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: it is, although I do think it's pretty possible. I
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: took the Bengals plus seven in scoot Roulette and the Chiefs.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Did I take the Chiefs? Damn? It's all good. I know.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: You get out there, you listen to your other shows,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: you hear other opinions, and it was just like last
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: week I had to beg you to take the fourty
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: niners on Saturday, I'm a beg you again to take
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: this number that was entirely different. That was entirely different
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: because I didn't have a strong opinion on that one.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: Where I I am developing an opinion. And by the way,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: it's only on the hook at seven, I have less
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: of an opinion at seven and a half. I feel
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: like that's just sort of the advantage. No, it's fair. Again,
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: It's just it's a key number. But I just think
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: it's a sharp like, not a sharp trap, but it's
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: just a trap like they're gonna the public loves Joe Burrow.
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: You're gonna see Joe cool tweets all week. How this
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: guy is dominated teams above five dres since his college
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: career and this is the run of Joe Burrow making
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: it to the super Bowl. I'm I just don't want
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: to shoot on too much because I want this to happen,
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: Like none of us want another Brady dynasty like my homes.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: I love them a home story, but yes, the better
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: story is Joe Burrow moving on. I just think their
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: second yend, Like who else is gonna bet in minus
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: seven and a half with this Chief's team. It feels
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: like very few of us will be taking that number
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: just because it's more pill taking the seven and a
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: half plus. It's never fun where it's like, okay, now
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: we need two scores again. That's the that's the key
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: number about seven and a half. That's two scores. That's
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: just not a touchdown. So I can't fault you chat
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: for being sucked in. But that's how the books do it.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: That get you with those numbers. You know, you say
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: it as if like I'm being a sucker and I'm
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: a square. The Bengals are pent the square butt at
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: seven and a half, talking about it as if it's
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: a win and there's a narrative. I'm only looking at
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: the number, the hook and the opportunity. I'm just saying
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be way different if they're down twenty at halftime,
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: not at home, if they're on the road at Arrowhead
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: like they were last time. It's tough. That's a tough
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: number to take. That's just why, Like I've had so
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: many pros reach out to me. It's like I hear you,
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: like it feels like this weekend is very easy. You
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: take a seven and a half of the Bengals and
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: you take the three and a half of the forty niners,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: and it's my job to take a step back and
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: be like, what are we really doing here? We gotta
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: watch the line movement and that one book, but that
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: we cannot mention. That's weird that they're getting a ton
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: of money on this seven a half and they're just
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: letting it sit there like that is very weird because
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: most books have moved it at this point because they
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: got the Bengals money. Now they're happy to take Chiefs money,
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: where this one book has just been sitting there all
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: week just taking tons and tons and tons of Bengals money. Well,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: if the line keeps moving and it potentially moves off
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: the six and the seven, and it gets the six
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and a half, then I'll play the chief six and
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: a half and I'll get a middle that would be
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: amazing if you hit that middle, you know, or I'll
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: bid it live. There's ways to get out of this,
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: like right now. But but to me, every scenario about
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: this plays out with the Bengals having an opportunity to cover.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: They can be down fourteen with a minute and a
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: half left and carve up the chief secondary and score
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: that touchdown. It's just this is not too like it
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: was against the Bills. It is seven and a half.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: There's too much in play for that number. I like
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: the bank that Chiefs have to be winning by three
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: touchdowns for this late in the fourth quarter for this
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: number not to be in play. That's what I'm trying
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: to say to you, is that like they're they're getting you,
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: that this is like a kind of get your kind
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: of number where they know what they're doing. These books
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: know what they're doing, and like I look at this
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: number and I can already tell it's you probably have
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: a less than forty chance if I even if I
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: run the model of covering this number, just in the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: simple fact that it's too easy. If they're down fourteen,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: all you need a touchdown chat and you're gonna be
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: covering against the Chiefs, which we know. People watch last week.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: They saw this Chief's defense give up a ton of yards.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: They remember the last time these two teams played in
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Broth turn all over the field. They know what they're doing. Buddy,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you they're sucking in it. Just the more
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I've talked to others pros, the more I've looked at
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: this number, it just feels like such a trap. Live
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: and learn. Well, guess what you got. You and I
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: are going to be on opposite side of this one. Good,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: We'll see how it goes. I'm gonna make that my
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: big ball is better than the week than Chiefs. Oh,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: well you probably you probably should. Yeah, it feels like
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna been in Island again with this easteam like
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: everywhere you pro is gonna take the Bengals. So the
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: big balls better the week. Simon, We've never done this before.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: We've never differed on a big balls better the week.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: But you're on the Chiefs and I'm on the Bengals.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: It's not gonna work out for you. I just think
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: the difference is I want to be on the Bengals
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half. I'll take the Chiefs minus
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: ten if that makes you feel better. That's how confident
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: I am in this Chief's number. Wow. Yeah, I think
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: it's a bad number. This number just stinks to me,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: like again like six or six and six and a half,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: that's what I mean. I like, I just see what
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: the books doing here. It's a trap, Like it's bad.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: If all of a sudden come this weekend apes on
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: the money and apes and the tickets is on the Chiefs,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: You're you've hit a home run chat like you've literally
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: nailed this number. But just watching the line movement, seeing
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: that betting public is coming from, it's like I feel
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: like they're sucking me in because I know I want
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: to take the Bengals. I told you, I think it's
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: a good number for the Bengals, and it's like they
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: know what they're doing, Like the public has shifted so
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: much for some reason, they just don't like the Chiefs.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Even though we just saw the Chiefs doing something we've
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: ever seen before. The public is still betting this Bengals
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: team just because they think they're getting such a good number.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Of the money is on the Bengals. Of the bets
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: are on the Chiefs. That's not one book like you name,
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: it's consensus. So you truly are on an island in
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: this one. It's a good place to be with my homes. Buddy,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: You'll learn, Baby, you'll learn. Don't don't fucking talk to
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: me that way. I've been doing this for twenty years.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: I've been in the game. You're a Johnny come Lately.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: You were fucking eleven when I was doing this. Yeah,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: but who has three cell phones? And who has one? Chat?
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: I only need one because I'm not. I'm not tied
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: to so many people, all right. I own my time,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: I own my destiny. You gotta like you know, you're
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: working for people. I don't work for anybody. But I
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: also have probably more underlings than you, and you own
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: a run a company, so it's a little different. As
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: I just said, I just came out of a budget
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: meeting with our CFO and our CEO mapping out like,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: here's what we've got to spend blah blah blah. And
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: at some point they said something and I said, throughout
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: my career, my only job manage myself out, find enough
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: smart people that I become irrelevant, and if they gotta
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: fire me, they gotta fire me. So I don't want
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: the underlinks. I am looking to get people like Matt Mitchell,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: who are so good at their job that I don't
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: even have to ask questions. They just tell me what
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: they're doing, and I'm like, sounds like a good idea.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I can't confirm that this has been the strategy as
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: I've witnessed it. Yeah, sounds good to me, and we
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: can just saying real quick, we both liked you over right.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: I think we have to probably gonna be five to one,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: six to one the money coming in on it, but
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I just touched on it. We don't think the Chief's
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: defense is that good, and I don't think that Bengals
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: defense is that good. So even if it's like last game,
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: it's only got forty points headed into the fourth quarter,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: we might see another thirty points, twenty one points in
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: the fourth quarter. So I love these kind of overs.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: You're never really out of it. Yeah, this could get ugly.
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• 18:22
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Niners and the rams.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I am shocked, Simon. We talked about this on Tuesday.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: This number still hanging a fucking meat ball out at
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: three and a half. What are the books doing? What
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: are the pros doing? Why is it not moving? Well?
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: I think we touched on it like pros. The pros
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: eren on the Rams a lot of them the preseason,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: bet them for the Super Bowl. They bet him again
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: the start of the playoffs, and they just liked this team.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: Where there's a bunch of us that we bought into
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: the four Niners head into the playoffs, We've bet them
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: every round and we've taken their money line and we're
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: we're right there still with them. It's it's more interesting
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: to me that the public is on the Rams as well,
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: where I don't know. I guess maybe Jimmy did look
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: that bad against Green Bay, but it's like sod Aaron Rodgers.
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: It's a lot to do with the weather, the conditions,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: like what they're playing with. Um, yeah, green green Bay's
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: defense is pretty good, and I'm shocked at the public.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: I just bought into Stafford and I gave about a
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: stat that it was UM teams that are two and
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: oh against UH teams during the regular season in the
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: playoffs are fourteen and seven. I looked it up. They
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: are three and five on the road and that's said matchupup.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: So if you're going off those little trends, that does
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: typically goes towards the RAMS team. But the more film
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: I break down about when these teams match up, it's
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: just Shanahan really does have mcveigh's number um defensively and offensively.
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Damiko Ryan's last time they played, he really took away
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: what the team wants to do in this RAMS team,
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: which is get the ball downfield to Cooper, Cup and
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Odell like they like throwing it from fifteen to twenty five,
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Like that's that's Stafford's happy place, and and they ran
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: a really nice zone against that, and it just didn't work.
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: And I'm coming back and looking at this number, and
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: like Chad just said, why the hell is it still
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: setting on three and a half. Maybe they just need
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: to need more for Niners money and because so much
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: more money and tickets have coming on the Rams. But
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: I don't get it either, buddy. It's like literally making
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: me scared because I just think we're getting such a
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: good number. It's the same thing with that Bengal seven
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's like it's a really good number.
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: But I love this one so which wore this FOURT
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: niners team because I can just see this being such
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: a close, slug it out kind of game. With these
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: two teams match up so well with one another, you
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: know exactly what each each team wants to do. Again,
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: we've heard the stat these six and oh Shane their
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: last six meetings against McVeigh. I'm getting three and a half.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: The public likes the Rams, the betting, the money, The
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: pros like the Rams, love it, Chad Love love love
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: love the fours again in this position, I'll take their
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: money line just because I I do believe they will win.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: But the three and a half, that's the bet right there, Like,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: that's such a good key number. Hoping we would get
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: the four, maybe more big money would come in on
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: this Ramps team, but it hasn't happened yet. So you know,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: if you've already grabbed the three and a half, just waits.
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: Maybe you'll be able to get that four if more
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: money this weekend comes in on this number. Because I
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: do believe this is the second game, So my kickoff
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: it could be up to you for for this four
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: nine team. Yeah, it's fascinating I mean the truth. There's
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of the logic you're giving me about the
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: Niners applies to the Bengals. The only thing we have
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: here is a significantly larger set of data by which
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: to examine this game. And everything you said about McVeigh
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: and Shanahan is true. The stats all bear it out.
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: This is a team that against each other, I would
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: say home field is probably worth zero. So in reality
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the Rams maybe should be power rated is one, if anything, right,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: so I'll automatically getting two and a half points of value. Shanahan,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: as we discussed eighteen and ten, is a really dog
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: seven and three against the spread against McKay four and
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: oh as a dog against McVeigh the past two seasons,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: six and oh the past three seasons, one all five
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: games when he's been a dog the past three seasons.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: Jimmy g this is great. I took this from Stucky
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast fifteen and four as a
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: dog fourteen and five straight up as a dog, best
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: winning percentage of any QB in the Super Bowl era
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: as a dog. And this is a question that I
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: think applies to the Bengals and also applies to Jimmy
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: G at what point does their ability to sort of
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: win on flute plays or win by things that are
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: outside consistency or that are sort of variants that you
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: can't account for become something that you have to account for.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: The Bengals keep winning these odd games based on freak
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: things because Joe Burrow at the end of the game
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: finds a way to get to Jamaar Chase and put
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: them in a position to keep it close. Jimmy ge
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: keeps winning in these odd games because he finds a
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: way to make the right play or gets put in
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: a position to make the right play at the right time.
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: That's not something you can account for in the model.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: It's just something you have to count for as the individual.
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: People don't give enough respect to my homes, Like this
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: is just different. This game Jimmy Geeve or Stafford's way
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: different than Joe Burrow versus my homes. It's like, what
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: was it last year the Bills went to go play
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: against the Chiefs and they lost what was a thirty
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: eight to twenty and that ANFC title game last year.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: It's like there's something about the first time getting that
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: we saw how Josh Allen was in that playoff game.
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: No fear that. That dude literally had zero fear in
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: that game this year against that Chiefs team because he
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: had been there, he had done that. Joe Burwin ever
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: been there, He ain't never done that. It's like a
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: perfect storm where they got the nice matchups he had
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: to play. Derek Carr at home, played a sloppy game,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: but did just enough got his confidence built that he
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: went to that Tennessee game, got the shikicked out of
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: him and was able to put up nineteen points and
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: win like his like that's not gonna happen my homes
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: and throw in three picks like it's just a lot
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: of stuff is broken for this Bengals team. Where I
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: think it catches up nowhere. This four yars team feels
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: like the Giants team of old they had. They have
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: more sustainable things. They have the front four like the
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Giants had that can put pressure on the quarterback. They
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: have the weapon in Debo like they had with Plaxico
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: or the running game with Jacobs that Giants team. It's
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: like there's little things that relate where that old school
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Giants team, which is you win with your front four,
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: you have a quarterback that you don't ask to do
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: too much, but it can be clutch in big moments
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: and coming into the playoffs. The reason I like the
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: four nine so much was that win against the Rams.
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: That was a clutch drive and win by Jimmy. Jimmy
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: was down seventeen less than two minutes to go. I
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: think they're on their ten yard line. He fucking drove
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: that field on the road against that Rams team to
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs. And like, I want to shoot on
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Jimy because Jimmy is what he is. He's inconsistent, he's
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: not gonna win you the games. But he's also been
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: this quarterback that in big, big moments he's able put
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: his team in position to win the game, Like he
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: put Debot in that third and seven spot that run
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: that ball up the right and get that first down.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: Like he just puts teams in the right position. It
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: gives them the right confidence. So yeah, I'm I'm I
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: get what you're saying. That cha, that's why we keep
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: talking about the Bengals game. I can't fault you for
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: liking that back door. It's like, that's a huge number
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: we've seen this chief defense give up plays touchdowns in seconds,
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: like Jamaar Chase can make the right round. He could
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: take it all way down the field and you're right
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: with like a minute ago, they could be down by
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: six or down by seven like and cover that number.
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: So that's why I'm not gonna faulter that one. But
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: this one, the Rams, I don't see the logic and
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: taking this Rams number, taking the minus three and a half,
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: it's a bad number. The Rams already good team, but
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: they just don't match up well against this Foreigners team,
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: like some teams just match up really well. So I
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: hate fading a lot of pros. But that's There's a
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: couple of games at this point, and kind of guys
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: love what they love, so guys love their Rams. I
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: make this line minus two Rams. I have them winning
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: by my system, but I don't think they're gonna win.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: I do believe in this foreign Anders team to cover
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: or and win. I'm with you, Simon says, Bet the
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Niners plus three and a half. That was our call
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, no reason to change it today. Go go
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: for the gold, Go for the goal. Bet the Niners
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: plus three and a half. This is going to be
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: interesting because come Sunday, you and I are not going
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: to have the same records. Like I'm gonna be on
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: the Bengals, You're gonna be on the Chiefs. We're both
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Niners. Worst case we're both one
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: on one because we're both nothing changed for me on
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: the total either. I don't know about you. I still
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: I like the under. I think it's moved down again,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: it's down to four, it's down to forty six, But
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: still like it. Still like the under. Both these teams
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: will just know these both these offenses so well, I
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: could just see it being kind of a field goal
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: close match up kind of game. That's why I like
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: we talked about I think three and a half such
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: an important number, feels like a field goal game. So
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: but again, if they touched all we down to forty three,
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: I'll start looking over because there's some key numbers. But
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: right now, like like the under. All right, so we've
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: just scided that are big balls better? The week is
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: really just Simon's big balls better the week it's going
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: to be the Chiefs. The flip side is the big
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: balls better the week could be the Bengals plus seven
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: and a half because we're like going against each other
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: on that, So depending on who you believe in more
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: depending on whose logic and argument you believed in more
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: on this podcast, you the listener, your big balls better
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: the week is either the Bengals or the Chiefs putting
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: kids against their parents? Yead, how can you do this
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: to our things? I know, I feel terrible. People have
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: to choose. All right, Simon, we've done it. We've done
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: all we can do today. We'll be back on Tuesday,
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: and we'll know who was right who was wrong about
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: the Bengals and the Chiefs. We will have this conversation
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. I'm convinced me. At Action Network HQ previewing
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: the Conference title Games eleven a m. Eastern You, Chris Rabon,
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Sean Kroner, Dan Ravel Samantha Pavidi on the news desk Unilse.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: She wrote, today, huh am I saying anything, Matt Mitchell
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: when I'm missing anything? Now, you just mentioned that it's
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: difficult to choose between your children in terms of picking
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: a favorite. I mean every parent knows that that's not true.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: But beyond that, clean show, I didn't say it's difficult
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: to choose your favorite child. I say it's difficult to
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: choose who you're going to go with as a parent.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is only one life, vest I feel
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: like we all know which one it would be. But hey, listen,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: that's just splitting hairs. Why do I feel like you're
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: not going to choose me Between the two of you,
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: it's Chad because you'd be so much easier to carry
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: the safety bob. All right. This has been the favorites
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: from the Volume podcast Network, downloaded on Spotify, Apple Podcast,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: where you can also rate review, give us five stars.
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Say whatever you want, we don't care. We'll read the
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: meanest ones on air and to Tuesday, I love you.