Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Why Hogs Don’t Care About the Headlines | Hog Talk March 10th, 2026

Transcript

Why Hogs Don’t Care About the Headlines | Hog Talk March 10th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Hog Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Your weekly deep dive into hog market fundamentals, breaking news in industry inside.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Pat, how's it going?
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Good.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: How are you this morning, Mike?
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're doing really good.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the hog market here a little bit.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Just a quick overview for everyone listening.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh and we're meeting here uh on Tuesday, mid uh mid-morning.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna be talking about the hog market.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: We're gonna start off with some technicals first, and then we're gonna dive into some more fundamentals here.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_01: But uh it's been a fun chart here recently, looking at a lot of the commodities, Pat.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like hogs have been somewhat insulated compared to some of the other commodities.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think about the the technicals right now?
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, a lot of volatility in the outside markets, as you mentioned.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_02: Uh crazy movement in that crude oil uh complex uh Sunday night through Monday here.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_02: And and um, you know, as a result of that, we've seen uh a little bit lower beef prices, some concern about what's going on in Greeley, Colorado, sort of adding to all of that.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_02: And the HUD complex got got sucked into that a little bit on Monday, but uh a nice little rebound here this morning.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_02: Um uh nice strength and cutout values yesterday, morning and afternoon, certainly providing support in the lean hog complex.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: And and uh um yeah, from a technical perspective, um we do have uh, I guess the April chart pulled up here, but it's uh you know, there's a little bit of gap up there towards the top end of this trading range, and and uh you know maybe there's an opportunity for us to go back and and challenge that here.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_02: But you know, Mike, with five weeks left, um, you know, we're gonna be more tied to what's going on with the index and and uh with with cutout trade here as we go.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_02: And and so far we're seeing a nice steady appreciation in in uh um in index uh uh numbers here.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: We're gonna have some firmer cash this week.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: But um, you know, all in all, spot fundamentals continue to be pretty solid.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_02: What's the future outlook look like here with Ice Wayne prices?
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, we've got uh that that's a little bit of a change here over the last couple of weeks.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_02: I I think the last time that I ever I had the opportunity to visit with you on this podcast, we were talking about how we had um space chasing baby pigs a little bit.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_02: Um that seems to be flipping some, and we want to be pretty cautious and careful about making that observation.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_02: But you know, as we're looking at this uh uh futures market opportunity uh uh six months out here, of course we're into a declining, depreciating market is just from a seasonal perspective.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_02: But we've also seen uh uh the expected correction in isoene values and maybe just a little bit more readily available.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_02: And so a whole lot of discussion in the industry as we uh you know at pork forum last week and the state shows uh you know, the month or so uh you know preceding that, as it relates to the health challenges in the industry, as it relates to um the supply side, relatively tight uh uh economics here, and and then the corresponding um higher ice wine values as a result.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: And that does seem to be calming down just a little bit and maybe a little bit more than what you would expect from a seasonal perspective.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_01: Current numbers running really close on uh market hog uh harvest here, uh close to last year's levels.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_01: How is that versus expectations here?
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, well we you know we we had over a hundred thousand, a hundred and eight thousand uh uh harvested last Saturday.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: So a pretty good Saturday harvest there put took last week's uh harvest rates up to just sort of 2.5 million, um, you know, a slight decline from the week prior, but uh um a little bit of an increase from a year ago.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_02: And so um so the amount uh, and then you couple that with what's going on with weights here, um, you know, we're getting uh uh plenty of pork production onto the market um relative to expectations and relative to a year ago.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_02: And cutout values, and we can move on to that, um, are certainly uh uh uh being supported rather well.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: Now, one of the things that we're looking at and talking about as we uh uh get into uh um this next week and the week after here is is the relatively wide premium that uh April Futures, just five weeks from expiration, is carrying to an index that from a historical perspective this time of year can be pretty flat, right?
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_02: And we've also talked about that quite a bit here in the last month or so.
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_02: But just uh, you know, it does, it does uh the uh the spot fundamentals are good, but uh the futures market uh is showing a fair bit of optimism relative to those spot fundamentals.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_02: And we've also now moved those summer markets back to some of our old highs.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, we've recently seen you know December 26 pigs and you know that Q4 forward um um uh opportunity uh you know rival the best numbers that we've seen.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_02: Continue to see expanded um opportunities for for crush, you know, in that deferred time slot, Mike.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_02: And so, you know, it's uh a real nice opportunity.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, let's let's talk about grains here just a little bit while we're while we're uh um talking about hog crush.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_02: And and so, you know, we have seen a little bit of a pop-up here in in uh um what's going on in the corn and meal complex in particular.
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you want to make a few observations just as it relates to what's going on on supply side fundamentals?
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: For sure.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the grain markets as of late, like a lot of these commodities, have been getting pushed around mainly by the inflation hedge story.
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we're buying crude oil.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_01: Now, corn and soybeans are probably more attached to crude oil than it's ever been.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_01: You know, the last time we started wars in the Middle East, things like ethanol and biofuels really weren't a thing at that point in the early 2000s yet.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_01: And it was right after that that we started to become more uh self-sufficient in the energy space.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: And now we're the large we produce like 22% of the world's crude oil supply.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_01: We're the largest producer in the world.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we're very self-su self-efficient.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: We uh we export energy now.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: So uh when it comes to corn and soybeans, we're very, very tied closely to the company.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_02: Sorry to interrupt you here, Mike, but just not only um is the greens complex more tied to the energy complex than what it was back in 08, um, but also this recent growth phenomenon, and you were educating me on this topic last week, of uh, you know, renewable diesel is much easier to slide into the diesel fuel supply than what ethanol ever was and even is to this day.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_02: Is that that statement accurate?
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_02: Correct.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: It's a it's the same molecule as diesel.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_01: You can't even tell under a microscope.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_01: So there's no barriers and they don't have any max on it either.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_01: So California is up to 75% of the diesel they use as biofuel or renewable diesel pad.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_02: That's right.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: And so that that connection is even even stronger tied, right?
• 6:59
  SPEAKER_02: Uh the relationship between uh soybeans and and crude oil.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_01: And they can flex into a lot more of that demand too.
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_01: It's pretty easy for them to do that.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're in the growth mode of that as well.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of plants are coming online.
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_01: You sent me something this morning about one going up by Grand Forks, I believe.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_01: So I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't a pipeline right underneath where that plant uh is being constructed, right?
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like it.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_01: So this this grain space has been impacted very heavily compared to the other egg commodities by this war so far.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_01: Corn, um, given just where managed money is, they could add a lot more contracts on in this corn space still.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: Soybeans were nearing a record, so we'll see if that starts to become a little bit of a cap.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: But both wheat and corn have some room to go if the funds really wanted to pile into this thing.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_01: Especially before, you know, adding weather premium and all those things.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: But uh Wasd Airport here and uh probably not trading a whole lot of fundamentals lately, so we'll see if we get to do some of that.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we might tie back into that just a little bit, and just uh a little bit um intermediate to longer term as it relates to uh energy and and uh in commodities, corn and soybeans in particular.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I you know the the the Trump administration is gonna be uh fairly strongly motivated to try to keep these oil prices in check.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, having uh some economic activity challenges going into midterms is certainly um not uh on their wish list by any stretch of the imagination, right?
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_02: And so yeah, so there there's there's a likely uh well we we experienced it yesterday, right?
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_02: Crude traded up to 120 and then back down to 90 bucks as as uh as we started to talk about releasing strategic reserves and those sorts of things.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: Talk about the importance of working orders over the last 24 hours because a lot of these moves are happening at midnight too.
• 8:44
  SPEAKER_01: You know, corn traded two cents from five dollars yesterday.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_01: So crude oil bounced right up to that you know resistance line from all the way back to 08 and 22.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: So uh just a little snip of a reminder for how important working orders are.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_02: Great point.
• 8:59
  SPEAKER_02: And and uh that's why, right, we when we have the opportunity to sit down with our clients and and work through the strategic plan week over week, month over month, it always includes um uh firm offers working orders in order to to uh execute uh um not only when we have this type of volatility in the markets, but also to some extent to save ourselves from ourselves, right?
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_02: It gets a little bit tough to make that decision.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: For sure.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_01: Any final thoughts for our listeners?
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, I I just uh just in general, first of all, thank you.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for the opportunity to uh engage with with everyone uh you know over the last four or five weeks or so.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_02: It's been great uh traveling around and looking forward to a trip to the Eastern Corn Belt uh um here shortly and and to get get in front of a few more folks here.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_02: But but um thanks for that opportunity.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks for the opportunity to to work with our customers and and uh looking forward um to uh taking advantage of of the opportunities this market is presenting for us.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_01: It is presentation time of the year.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think you and I both we got what Illinois, Ohio, Missouri just by the end of this week, Pat.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_02: Busy three days, yeah it is.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_02: All right, looking forward to it.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_02: Thank you.