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AFC North Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I
0:16
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman, chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
0:20
Speaker 1: Packed Packed Show today continuing our division previews. I think
0:25
Speaker 1: we're previewing what I believe to be the best division
0:29
Speaker 1: in all of football. I am joined as I am
0:33
Speaker 1: for every episode by my bff, my companion Michael Padre
0:37
Speaker 1: from Maui with live reports on the devastation professional better
0:44
Speaker 1: Simon hunter HEADO. So I man, please tell us your
0:50
Speaker 1: status and that you're safe.
0:54
Speaker 2: Hello Chad, Yeah, I am safe. I'm in Keihe, which
0:58
Speaker 2: is another part of Maui. That's it. Did We did
1:02
Speaker 2: have a little bit of fire scary here, but it's
1:04
Speaker 2: it's the opposite side of the island compared to Lahina,
1:06
Speaker 2: which it's devastating. I don't even know. I can't even
1:11
Speaker 2: talk about it, but it's basically uh an old whaling village.
1:16
Speaker 2: Lahina is completely gone. So where I'm at, it's more modern,
1:20
Speaker 2: it's a little more built up. And yeah, thank you
1:24
Speaker 2: to the Mali firefighters. They they put out all the
1:28
Speaker 2: fires by me, and it's just yeah, it's been scary.
1:30
Speaker 2: Forty eight hours, had the bags packed by the front
1:33
Speaker 2: door and ready to go at any moment, but feeling
1:36
Speaker 2: very lucky. Chad, have internet, have water, have light like electricity.
1:42
Speaker 2: You know most of the island right now don't have
1:44
Speaker 2: those luxuries. So yeah, definitely, really really scary seventy two
1:48
Speaker 2: hours here on the island, and uh yeah, makes you
1:52
Speaker 2: makes you feel love chat when so many people reach
1:54
Speaker 2: out to you. You're not dead, but do you realize
1:55
Speaker 2: how many people do care about you? So a lot
1:58
Speaker 2: of people reached out. One thing everyone that did donate
2:01
Speaker 2: to Maui Food, which is something I did promote on
2:04
Speaker 2: my Twitter page, which is just you know, they're feeding
2:08
Speaker 2: all these families who've lost their homes and their businesses.
2:10
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's tough right now in Mali, but
2:13
Speaker 2: definitely definitely makes you feel lucky and appreciative of what
2:15
Speaker 2: you do have in life.
2:18
Speaker 1: You've been giving me and Matt Mitchell updates and slack
2:23
Speaker 1: and we've been following the news. Very scary. Glad you've
2:28
Speaker 1: been keeping a surprise. Glad you're okay. You're a fucking
2:32
Speaker 1: pro for jumping on the podcast today.
2:35
Speaker 2: Considering good distraction, my friend.
2:37
Speaker 1: Yeah, considering you've been you know, planning to escape and
2:42
Speaker 1: on the verge of being told to evacuate for what
2:46
Speaker 1: feels like seventy two hours and have probably slept a
2:50
Speaker 1: total of seventy two minutes in that window. So thanks
2:56
Speaker 1: for coming on.
2:58
Speaker 2: No, it's it's been really rough. It's just all about perspective.
3:01
Speaker 2: It's just I have a way better than a lot
3:04
Speaker 2: of people are right now. So I do feel very lucky.
3:08
Speaker 1: And yes, if you can, this is a plea on
3:15
Speaker 1: behalf of Simon. Everybody always needs something. There's a lot
3:21
Speaker 1: of bad stuff going on in the world. It is
3:24
Speaker 1: especially heightened in Maui right now. If you're able follow
3:28
Speaker 1: up on what Simon posted on Twitter, give if you
3:32
Speaker 1: can in other news, Simon, you're a professional better. I
3:38
Speaker 1: have been in the betting media coverage space for going
3:44
Speaker 1: on twenty five years. The most interesting, respected, revered, beloved
3:52
Speaker 1: in terms of what he's been able to do in
3:55
Speaker 1: betting from a professional perspective, man is Billy. There has
4:01
Speaker 1: been an aura of mystery around the guy for going
4:04
Speaker 1: on forty something years now, widely believed to be the best, better,
4:10
Speaker 1: best sports better in history. Part of the computer group
4:14
Speaker 1: going back to the eighties. That was one of the
4:17
Speaker 1: first teams of people that were using computers to build
4:22
Speaker 1: models that allowed them to act faster and find edges
4:26
Speaker 1: and bet more. Volume has since gone on and become
4:29
Speaker 1: one of the guys who was doing it at massive,
4:32
Speaker 1: massive scale, and really respected by folks like Simon who
4:38
Speaker 1: have been professional betters forever. Other folks that I know
4:41
Speaker 1: in Vegas talk about him in hush tones. A lot
4:44
Speaker 1: of people still refer to him as mister Walters, even
4:47
Speaker 1: if they are his contemporary or have never even met
4:50
Speaker 1: the guy. Of course, famously was profiled in Sixty Minutes
4:55
Speaker 1: with his private jets and how he's moving markets. And
4:59
Speaker 1: more often than not, if a line moves, it has
5:02
Speaker 1: been impacted by Billy Walters, no matter what the sport.
5:05
Speaker 1: So Billy obviously if you don't not obviously, but if
5:08
Speaker 1: you don't know. Several years ago was caught up in
5:12
Speaker 1: an insider trading scandal and he ultimately went to jail.
5:17
Speaker 1: He is out of jail. One of the people who
5:19
Speaker 1: he was famously connected to was Phil Nicholson, and Billy
5:24
Speaker 1: now has a book coming out in a couple of
5:26
Speaker 1: weeks exerted by Alan Schipknuck and the Firepit Collective. A
5:32
Speaker 1: newser on actionnetwork dot Com this morning by Dani Ravel
5:37
Speaker 1: focuses very specifically on Billy and his ledger, in which
5:43
Speaker 1: he claims in his ledger that Phil bett more than
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Speaker 1: a billion dollars over thirty years through Billy's system, and
5:53
Speaker 1: that part of the process was because Phil is an
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Speaker 1: amateur better who is famous, his limits were crazy high.
6:00
Speaker 1: He could get four hundred thousand dollars down on a game.
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Speaker 1: Billy because he's Billy could get two thousand, four thousand.
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Speaker 1: So for access to Billy's system, he would Phil would
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Speaker 1: let would make Billy's bets and so Billy has a
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Speaker 1: ledger of everything Phil was betting. Claims he bet more
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Speaker 1: than a billion dollars over thirty years, lost one hundred
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Speaker 1: million dollars. Also claims that Phil tried to bet on
6:22
Speaker 1: the Ryder Cup when Phil was playing for the Ryder
6:26
Speaker 1: Cup the twenty fourteen explosive allegations. Simon, forgetting about that
6:34
Speaker 1: for a second. Give me your thoughts on Billy Walters
6:37
Speaker 1: and sort of his status from your point of view.
6:41
Speaker 2: The best wagon describe, especially for these old heads, is
6:44
Speaker 2: they used to been old saying that that guy shook
6:46
Speaker 2: Sinatra's hand. That's how it feels with Billy. If you're
6:50
Speaker 2: a better it's like I've shaken Billy's hand before, and
6:55
Speaker 2: you know, I only talked to him for maybe five minutes,
6:58
Speaker 2: but yeah, it's just there's an or around him, and
7:01
Speaker 2: it's just you know, there's very few living legends in life,
7:04
Speaker 2: and he's definitely one of them. And when I met him,
7:06
Speaker 2: it was probably six months into me being a runner,
7:09
Speaker 2: so this was before I believe even went to jail.
7:13
Speaker 2: And this was kind of the height of Billy in
7:15
Speaker 2: Vegas at the time. I mean, he was the guy,
7:18
Speaker 2: and you know, you had to be in the world
7:20
Speaker 2: to know who he was. But once you're in the world,
7:23
Speaker 2: you realized he is the guy, like he's he is
7:26
Speaker 2: at the top of the mountaintop you're looking up at
7:28
Speaker 2: and you know, Billy was always known to go about
7:32
Speaker 2: and did his things his own way and aultate at
7:35
Speaker 2: the end of it. He paid the price for that.
7:36
Speaker 2: But you know, a lot of shady stuff goes on
7:39
Speaker 2: in Vegas and not everyone gets caught, and you know,
7:42
Speaker 2: Billy eventually crossed the line and he got caught. So
7:46
Speaker 2: cannot wait to read this book. I mean, the secrets
7:48
Speaker 2: he's going to give out, it's going to be amazing.
7:50
Speaker 2: It's going to be really cool to read. And yeah,
7:54
Speaker 2: I thought, you know, not that I thought that he
7:58
Speaker 2: would be telling all this about Phil because him and
8:01
Speaker 2: Phil obviously had a friendship there and not other were
8:03
Speaker 2: they just business partners. The obviously had a friendship there.
8:06
Speaker 2: So it's gonna be interesting to read about what went
8:08
Speaker 2: awry for them to not be as close as ust
8:12
Speaker 2: to be because he's putting all his business out there, Chad,
8:15
Speaker 2: And you know, if I was close to anyone in life,
8:17
Speaker 2: even if weren't friends anymore, I don't know if I'd
8:18
Speaker 2: ever do that. So it is interesting that Billy is
8:20
Speaker 2: going that route.
8:22
Speaker 1: Well, look in the story that Darren has and that's
8:26
Speaker 1: posted from the book. The excerpt from the book, it
8:30
Speaker 1: seems like Billy is incredibly angry that when he was
8:36
Speaker 1: being prosecuted for insider trading, Phil had the opportunity to
8:44
Speaker 1: absolve him of some of the charges in relation to
8:49
Speaker 1: did he give Phil any insider tips? And Phil pled
8:55
Speaker 1: the fifth on the stand, which didn't help Billy, and
8:59
Speaker 1: he feels certainly that that is a reason why he
9:04
Speaker 1: ended up in prison, and you know what they say,
9:07
Speaker 1: He's got the receipts.
9:09
Speaker 2: And now it's starting to make more sense.
9:13
Speaker 1: The dude unloaded in the book, Unloaded in the excerpt
9:20
Speaker 1: that Alan Shipnak posted, and that in the news that
9:23
Speaker 1: we have at actionnetwork dot com. Check out the story
9:26
Speaker 1: from Darren Ravel. It's fascinating, it's explosive, and you're right,
9:30
Speaker 1: Billy's been a guy who for years people have been
9:33
Speaker 1: wanting to get to his story. I remember years ago
9:37
Speaker 1: when I was running ESPN, the magazine at ESPN dot com.
9:40
Speaker 1: Mike Fish, who's a great investigative reporter and was at
9:45
Speaker 1: ESPN or had been at ESPN for years at that point,
9:49
Speaker 1: had been tracking down Billy, tracking down Billy, tracking down Billy.
9:52
Speaker 1: Finally got a really great story about Billy, and it
9:57
Speaker 1: was one of the first times that someone was able
10:00
Speaker 1: to get inside of Billy's world in a way that
10:04
Speaker 1: wasn't shaded by people who had agendas who wanted to
10:07
Speaker 1: be close to Billy, or by Billy trying to push
10:10
Speaker 1: an agenda himself. And the guy is fascinating. I mean,
10:14
Speaker 1: the mega industry he has built, all judgment aside is
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Speaker 1: profound and I'm excited to read the full book too.
10:27
Speaker 1: I can't wait.
10:28
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't wait.
10:31
Speaker 1: Simon. I've been doing a lot of research for our
10:33
Speaker 1: division previews, and I can tell you right now two
10:38
Speaker 1: things I can tell you. AFC North best division in football.
10:43
Speaker 1: I got a lot of reasons to think that. Two
10:46
Speaker 1: of the best coaches, two of the best quarterbacks, some
10:50
Speaker 1: of the best storytelling, narrative scenarios. I just think this
10:56
Speaker 1: division is awesome. We're going to get to all of it,
11:00
Speaker 1: but first, I want to remind everybody The Favorite podcast
11:04
Speaker 1: is proudly presented by Bet three six five, the world
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Speaker 1: in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, and Iowa. Gambling problem
11:24
Speaker 1: caller text one eight hundred gambler. Look, I feel like
11:31
Speaker 1: we're going to surprise some people with where we land
11:33
Speaker 1: on some of these bets today. You and I have
11:36
Speaker 1: not discussed the AFC North at all. In my research,
11:40
Speaker 1: it became more and more clear We're probably going to
11:43
Speaker 1: be aligned on a couple of points of conversation that
11:45
Speaker 1: I think is going to tickle some people.
11:51
Speaker 2: What do you think about how do you think I
11:52
Speaker 2: think this is the best this is the best division?
11:56
Speaker 1: Where do you think? Look, dude, I'm looking at the numbers.
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Speaker 1: I see delta from from Cincinnati at plus one forty
12:07
Speaker 1: to win the division and Pittsburgh at plus five point fifty.
12:11
Speaker 1: Their season win totals eleven and a half for the Bengals,
12:14
Speaker 1: eight and a half for the Steelers. That is the
12:17
Speaker 1: highest sort of aggregate win total for any division. Yeah,
12:22
Speaker 1: only division where every team is above eight wins. And
12:29
Speaker 1: I look at all the other stats, like there's no
12:32
Speaker 1: defensive line in this division that is ranked lower than eleven. Right,
12:37
Speaker 1: they just have talent at every level. So why are
12:41
Speaker 1: you surprised I'm saying that? What did you think I
12:42
Speaker 1: would say it is?
12:44
Speaker 2: I thought you'd probably go AFC East, But it may
12:48
Speaker 2: well just because you have well maybe no, and maybe
12:50
Speaker 2: you did not. You didn't have Rogers your top ten.
12:52
Speaker 2: But I was gonna say just because you had Josh
12:54
Speaker 2: Allen Rogers and two in your top ten quarterbacks. But
12:56
Speaker 2: that makes sense if you had Rogers outside your top ten.
12:58
Speaker 2: But no, this is we talk all the time. This
13:02
Speaker 2: is literally the golden age of quarterbacks. Like this division
13:05
Speaker 2: that you know, AFC West, you got Russ Herbert and
13:11
Speaker 2: Mahomes and then you got this division here where I
13:14
Speaker 2: mean you just talked to it. You got Watson, you
13:17
Speaker 2: got Lamar, you got Joey the man, the myth, the legend,
13:21
Speaker 2: and you know, we don't know how we feel about
13:23
Speaker 2: him up in South Jersey's own Kenny Pickett, you're right,
13:25
Speaker 2: chat now I'm thinking about it. It is pretty incredible
13:28
Speaker 2: how good these three different conferences are, let alone just
13:31
Speaker 2: this one division. I mean, this is pretty incredible. We're
13:34
Speaker 2: in this right now. Football, But dude, not just that.
13:38
Speaker 1: Think about the coaches that you most like to bet on.
13:42
Speaker 1: We've talked about this so many times, right, Two of
13:45
Speaker 1: the coaches that we most like to bet on, say,
13:48
Speaker 1: two of the five coaches we most like to bet on, yeah,
13:52
Speaker 1: are in this division, John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin.
13:56
Speaker 2: All right, hit that horn, baby, let's dance.
13:59
Speaker 1: Yeah again. I'll say the other coaches that we love.
14:01
Speaker 1: We love to bet on Belichick, we love to bet
14:04
Speaker 1: on Mike Vrabel. We love to bet on Andy Reid,
14:08
Speaker 1: but we really love to bet on Mike Tomlin and
14:11
Speaker 1: John Harbaugh.
14:15
Speaker 2: I love the false enthusiasm. I'm gonna see if we
14:17
Speaker 2: can make one of you guys quit today.
14:19
Speaker 1: Tomlin has never finished below five hundred in his career.
14:24
Speaker 1: And we're talking about quarterbacks like Duck Hodges that he's
14:27
Speaker 1: been coaching, right, Harbaugh, Like, think about what Harbad did
14:32
Speaker 1: last year. That team with a second and third string
14:36
Speaker 1: combination of quarterbacks should have beaten the Bengals in the
14:39
Speaker 1: wild card game if not for that fumble. Harpball is
14:43
Speaker 1: a genius coach. So this division is stacked. It's stacked.
14:49
Speaker 2: It's tough.
14:50
Speaker 1: What are we gonna do with this?
14:52
Speaker 2: Let me go down the gain know exactly what we're
14:54
Speaker 2: gonna do.
14:55
Speaker 1: I do too, I know exactly what we're gonna do too.
15:00
Speaker 1: I'm curious to know if we're gonna land in the
15:01
Speaker 1: same place. So let me go down the odds right now.
15:03
Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus one forty, Baltimore plus two twenty, Cleveland plus
15:10
Speaker 1: three fifty, Pittsburgh plus five fifty. Here's my deduction right now.
15:19
Speaker 1: Are you ready?
15:20
Speaker 2: Yeah?
15:23
Speaker 1: And let me say this. I fucking love Kenny Pickett.
15:28
Speaker 1: I think Kenny Pickett is a fucking baller. I think
15:32
Speaker 1: he's gonna be great for that team. I think his
15:34
Speaker 1: teammates love him. There was a play last year where
15:37
Speaker 1: he felt like he got hit late. Do you remember
15:40
Speaker 1: the play that I'm talking about? And he got up
15:42
Speaker 1: and he was ready to throw down and it was fantastic,
15:48
Speaker 1: and I think it rallied the team. I think we
15:50
Speaker 1: saw his ability to be a playmaker. You know, they've
15:56
Speaker 1: got a really strong defensive line.
16:01
Speaker 2: Excuse me, get chat, I'm talking about it, Kenny, pick
16:05
Speaker 2: it any pick me up.
16:09
Speaker 1: But I feel like we got to go with Cleveland
16:10
Speaker 1: plus three fifty to win the division.
16:12
Speaker 2: So bad, right lined? Yeah, dude, Oh my god.
16:16
Speaker 1: Oh my god. We did not discuss this once. And
16:21
Speaker 1: I was doing the research and I looked at everything.
16:24
Speaker 1: I'm like, holy fuck, this roster is unbelievable. Plus three fifty.
16:29
Speaker 1: Their total is eight and a half minus one seventy
16:32
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five to the over, plus one
16:35
Speaker 1: forty for the under. Fuck. This is a good team.
16:38
Speaker 2: I honestly, when I look at them on paper, I
16:40
Speaker 2: don't get how they can afford this team. If you
16:42
Speaker 2: look at their D line it doesn't make sense how
16:45
Speaker 2: they can give to Shaan Watson, what was it, two
16:48
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty million all guaranteed money and still they
16:52
Speaker 2: have Nick Chubb, they have an incredible offensive line, they
16:54
Speaker 2: have a Mark Cooper, and then go look at their
16:57
Speaker 2: d line. People, if you haven't seen who they have
16:58
Speaker 2: added to this defense, you know they're just I can't.
17:02
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad, Like they have arguably the best
17:06
Speaker 2: defensive player now in football and Miles Garrett. But we're
17:09
Speaker 2: betting on Watson to turn back into what he used
17:11
Speaker 2: to be, right, I think that's the biggest fear here. Like,
17:14
Speaker 2: and again we're getting the number four. It if Watson
17:16
Speaker 2: had came back last year and had thrown say, twenty
17:19
Speaker 2: touchdowns of four interceptions in that final run he had
17:22
Speaker 2: with that team, Mean and Chat would not be getting
17:24
Speaker 2: this number. This would be a totally different number. But
17:27
Speaker 2: the public is just out on Watson. Like, the only
17:29
Speaker 2: people taking Watson right now they're pros and Cleveland Brown fans.
17:32
Speaker 2: Like the public, it's totally off of them. I would
17:35
Speaker 2: say the most public bet team right now this division,
17:38
Speaker 2: it's gonna be the Bengals, right They're the team that's
17:40
Speaker 2: won this division tiers in a row. Joe Burrow's cool
17:43
Speaker 2: as shit man like Joe Burrow can do no wrong.
17:45
Speaker 2: He's just a really likable, good dude. You don't got
17:49
Speaker 2: that on Watson. No one's saying that about Watson. I
17:52
Speaker 2: think even still, you're gonna have to talk ahead to
17:54
Speaker 2: be like preference, talk about what he did. Right. We
17:58
Speaker 2: all agree, huge scumback. We both I think got him
18:01
Speaker 2: top five just three years ago in our QBU rankings.
18:03
Speaker 1: Really certain. I still had them top ten this year.
18:07
Speaker 1: I have them top ten.
18:09
Speaker 2: I know all the talents there. It's it's all about
18:11
Speaker 2: if you can get that mental confidence back, which you
18:13
Speaker 2: can see he had lost. Right, he took a year
18:16
Speaker 2: and a half off of football. I mean that's that's
18:18
Speaker 2: a big deal. Yeah, we're playing fire here, but over
18:21
Speaker 2: eight and a half we're gonna be on it. It sucks.
18:23
Speaker 2: It's all up to minus one seventy. If you can
18:25
Speaker 2: get the juice down and take over nine, I would
18:28
Speaker 2: take that number. I got them at ten point two wins,
18:30
Speaker 2: so I got them a full game and a half
18:32
Speaker 2: over this eight and a half wins, So I like
18:34
Speaker 2: the value there. But this divisionally, this was just plus
18:38
Speaker 2: four hundred not even three weeks ago, and then Joe
18:41
Speaker 2: Burrow pulled up with the calf string and this number dropped,
18:44
Speaker 2: so dropped down to three twenty. Now with the news
18:46
Speaker 2: that Joe's probably gonna be back for week one, it's
18:48
Speaker 2: gone up a little bit back to three point fifty.
18:51
Speaker 2: Still like the value, I mean, it's still great value
18:53
Speaker 2: in this Browns team that if they do upset the
18:55
Speaker 2: Bengals week one. I mean, this is easy. He's going
18:58
Speaker 2: to drop to two seventy five two fifty for this division.
19:00
Speaker 2: So yeah, I love that you're on this team. Chat.
19:03
Speaker 2: It's just it's the pro play you have to if
19:07
Speaker 2: you're just betting off pure value base them the Ravens
19:13
Speaker 2: and the Bengals. The difference is so small. It really
19:17
Speaker 2: is that small, people like, it's not as big as
19:20
Speaker 2: the books are making out to be. So yeah, I'm
19:23
Speaker 2: happy to here chet you like the Browns because I
19:25
Speaker 2: hate doing it. I feel like a gross human doing it.
19:28
Speaker 2: But this is our job. It's a business, and we're
19:31
Speaker 2: just playing the number here. We're trying not to look
19:33
Speaker 2: at the individuals and how horrible people they are, Like,
19:35
Speaker 2: we're just playing the numbers here.
19:37
Speaker 1: We don't get to choose the opportunity. Yeah, all we
19:40
Speaker 1: can do is play the opportunity. Let me give you
19:43
Speaker 1: some stats, Okay, to back up what we're talking about.
19:46
Speaker 1: And this is again you and I had not discussed this,
19:49
Speaker 1: as the beauty of doing it live is. We did
19:53
Speaker 1: not share notes on this particular bet, but I was
19:57
Speaker 1: doing my research last night, so so I will say
20:01
Speaker 1: that a Cordner Sean Kerner, the AFC North has the
20:06
Speaker 1: hardest schedule in the NFL, and that makes sense because
20:10
Speaker 1: we think it's the best division in the NFL. So
20:12
Speaker 1: according to Kerner, the Browns have the what looks like
20:17
Speaker 1: sixth or seventh hardest schedule. I'm doing it backwards because
20:21
Speaker 1: we rank it one to thirty two. The Bengals have
20:24
Speaker 1: the second hardest schedule, the Ravens have the fourth, the
20:27
Speaker 1: Steelers have the fifth. Right, so number one, number two.
20:32
Speaker 1: Simon talked about their defensive line. Miles Garrett probably the
20:36
Speaker 1: most dominant edge rusher in football, if not along with
20:40
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald, the most dominant defensive lineman. They added Zadarius Smith.
20:46
Speaker 1: It's the first time in Miles Garrett's career is there
20:48
Speaker 1: Darius Smith, who had ten sacks for the Viking last year,
20:51
Speaker 1: the first time Miles Garrett's career that he's had any
20:55
Speaker 1: kind of support. Jadavon Clowney was not support. Jadagon Clowney
20:59
Speaker 1: was kind of a clown on the other side of
21:01
Speaker 1: the line. So the fact that Miles Garrett might not
21:04
Speaker 1: be blocked double team done every single play. Right now,
21:08
Speaker 1: they are sixth sixth best defensive line according to PFF.
21:13
Speaker 1: You gotta love this defensive line, Simon, mm hmm. This
21:19
Speaker 1: offensive line?
21:20
Speaker 2: Who was raking ahead of them? I thes are up, uh.
21:26
Speaker 1: The Eagles, the Niners, Uh, the Steelers are fifth, and
21:31
Speaker 1: I think that's really because of t J. Watt and
21:34
Speaker 1: Alex Highsmith who had such a great year last year.
21:36
Speaker 1: But we'll get to that. This Brown's offensive line, according
21:41
Speaker 1: to PFF, ranked second. You got center Ethan Posick who
21:47
Speaker 1: had a great, great year.
21:49
Speaker 2: Right.
21:52
Speaker 1: Joel pittonio All Pro left guard one sack all season
21:57
Speaker 1: last year. So where do you have it? Where do
22:01
Speaker 1: you have the Browns offensive line ranked.
22:04
Speaker 2: Top three in their d lines? Top three? That's why
22:06
Speaker 2: I was interesting that made number six. But again it's
22:08
Speaker 2: all preseason. Everyone can do their own list. But Chad's
22:12
Speaker 2: no stranger to this is the exact same reason I
22:14
Speaker 2: was all in on the Eagles last year. I had
22:16
Speaker 2: the Eagles ranked as a top three offensive line and
22:18
Speaker 2: a top three defensive line and took a lot of
22:20
Speaker 2: shit for it. People are like, this Eagles team barely cracked.
22:23
Speaker 2: I think it was forty sacks the year before, and
22:26
Speaker 2: I kept saying that was irrelevant to this upcoming season.
22:28
Speaker 2: They'd obviously added pieces to that defensive line that made
22:31
Speaker 2: a big difference. Did I know they're gonna get seventy sacks? No,
22:34
Speaker 2: No one can build a model that can predict the
22:36
Speaker 2: D line and get seventy sacks last year. But just
22:38
Speaker 2: projecting out this Browns D line, I got them breaking
22:41
Speaker 2: fifty five sixty sacks. That's a big deal on a
22:44
Speaker 2: defense like this. So yeah, I'm very very high on
22:48
Speaker 2: this O line and very very high on this D line.
22:50
Speaker 2: And to me, no stranger to that, Chad. Everyone knows
22:53
Speaker 2: that that's my secret sauce. Like, that's two things I
22:56
Speaker 2: really look into that a lot of people don't pay
22:58
Speaker 2: attention to it, and it's a big deal to me. So
23:00
Speaker 2: you nailed it. It's it's it's why I've upgraded them
23:02
Speaker 2: so much, and I still think they're undervalued in the
23:04
Speaker 2: public the public side, they just they don't they don't
23:07
Speaker 2: really care about O line and D line talk Chad,
23:09
Speaker 2: but they really should.
23:11
Speaker 1: By the way, I'm remiss for not telling people to
23:14
Speaker 1: like this video on YouTube. Like it, like it, like it,
23:18
Speaker 1: subscribe to Action Networks YouTube channel. Two things Simon one,
23:24
Speaker 1: it's not so secret. We're talking about how much you
23:26
Speaker 1: love the offensive line and defensive line all the time.
23:29
Speaker 1: And I think the trenches are why NFL betters, professional
23:32
Speaker 1: betters watch preseason games. The number of times I've sat
23:36
Speaker 1: with professional betters and they are talking about betting preseason
23:40
Speaker 1: and then talking about watching preseason. They're not doing it
23:43
Speaker 1: because there are degenerate reasons to doing it to do it.
23:48
Speaker 1: They're doing it because at some point in week five
23:52
Speaker 1: and some point in week twelve, a left guard a
23:55
Speaker 1: right tackle for some team is going to go down,
23:59
Speaker 1: and professional betters to know, Okay, is the second string
24:02
Speaker 1: tackle good enough to fill that role without too much
24:07
Speaker 1: of a diminished impact, Like is that going to work out?
24:11
Speaker 1: So that's why guys are watching the preseason games, because
24:14
Speaker 1: they're judging the offensive and defensive lines. It's everything, which
24:18
Speaker 1: is why Simon, I think you and I both landed
24:20
Speaker 1: on the Browns, even though we still have a lot
24:23
Speaker 1: of questions about Deshaun Watson and can he come back. Yeah,
24:26
Speaker 1: that's the biggest question. But foundationally, these the Browns are
24:30
Speaker 1: just so strong, great, this is.
24:33
Speaker 2: In my lifetime. This is the best the Browns I
24:35
Speaker 2: have ever been like. They have it. It's all there
24:38
Speaker 2: on paper, everything they've been building to this whole tanking, analytics,
24:42
Speaker 2: everything I've done all these years getting rid of Baker right,
24:45
Speaker 2: Baker took them to the playoffs. They want a playoff
24:48
Speaker 2: game with Baker and they cut ties on the following
24:50
Speaker 2: year just because the ownership, the GM, all of them
24:53
Speaker 2: looked at this team on paper and said, what's the
24:56
Speaker 2: one thing we're missing, And to them it was a
24:57
Speaker 2: quarterback position. They wanted to improve it. Say what you
25:01
Speaker 2: want about the Deshaun Watson move they made, Clearly it's right.
25:04
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield now is on his third team in two years.
25:08
Speaker 2: Clearly the move is justifying the sense that they didn't
25:11
Speaker 2: think he was the guy, and the rest of the
25:12
Speaker 2: NFL is agreeing with him. The question now is what
25:15
Speaker 2: Chad just mentioned, can Deshaun Watson find what he has
25:18
Speaker 2: lost these last couple of seasons. We just we don't know,
25:21
Speaker 2: but we're betting on that he does, just because of
25:23
Speaker 2: the value that is there in this number.
25:26
Speaker 1: I want to go to the next team on this list,
25:28
Speaker 1: which we think is the most interesting, which is the
25:30
Speaker 1: Steelers a plus five point fifty. There's a great TikTok
25:34
Speaker 1: trend going around right now, Mike Tomlin doing Mike Tomlin
25:38
Speaker 1: sayings and it's fantastic. What what you know? We know
25:43
Speaker 1: how much Matt Metroll loves to drop Mike tomlinisms into
25:48
Speaker 1: the podcast.
25:49
Speaker 2: So that's why the people kill me for catchphrases. But
25:52
Speaker 2: I'm trying to capture a thought succainctly without damn talking
25:56
Speaker 2: too much, because I just hate talking. I'd rather do.
26:00
Speaker 1: We love Mike Tomlin. We love Mike Tomlin as an underdog.
26:03
Speaker 1: We love Mike Tomlin on the road as an underdog.
26:06
Speaker 1: Eight and a half wins minus one fifty to the over,
26:09
Speaker 1: plus one twenty to the under. There's no reason to
26:12
Speaker 1: bet the under here. The Steelers have the fifth best
26:16
Speaker 1: D line according to Pro Football Focus. They have a
26:20
Speaker 1: middle of the pack O line, really good passing O line,
26:24
Speaker 1: really bad running O line. I don't think we're taking
26:29
Speaker 1: them to win the division. I don't know if I
26:32
Speaker 1: like the juice on the eight and a half either.
26:35
Speaker 2: I used all theirs luck up last year. I mean
26:37
Speaker 2: we both took their over luck and yeah we did.
26:42
Speaker 2: I got them slanated towards the under, but it's by
26:45
Speaker 2: not even ero point three. Like I got them at
26:47
Speaker 2: eight point two wins and the over is eight and
26:49
Speaker 2: a half, So no value there to me. I'm not
26:52
Speaker 2: here to force total you know, win total bets. But yeah,
26:56
Speaker 2: they're this is one of the teams I'm excited about
26:59
Speaker 2: because if he does make that next step, they're gonna
27:02
Speaker 2: be really good. Like I have really good receivers. I
27:04
Speaker 2: know they Broughden Robinson as well, Like they have a
27:06
Speaker 2: really good core there for him, and obviously Algie Harris
27:10
Speaker 2: in the backfield one of the better running backs in
27:11
Speaker 2: all football. So yeah, it's all there for Pittsburgh. But
27:16
Speaker 2: in this division, man, with these quarterbacks, like I just
27:19
Speaker 2: it's hard to get behind Kenny. I mean, it is
27:22
Speaker 2: all there for them, But I think last year it
27:26
Speaker 2: was a little bit of a year early, right, So
27:28
Speaker 2: this year, to me, them getting to eight and nine,
27:31
Speaker 2: seven and ten, that just feels right like they're gonna
27:34
Speaker 2: steal some games in this division. You know, they're playing
27:37
Speaker 2: the NFC West. It's it's gonna be hard to see
27:40
Speaker 2: them stealing games from the forty nine ers, the Rams
27:42
Speaker 2: and Seattle there. But you know, it's just just a
27:46
Speaker 2: really tough schedule for this this Steelers team. So Week one, mean,
27:50
Speaker 2: Chad loved them plus three at home against the forty
27:53
Speaker 2: nine ers, But yep, for the season win total, division,
27:56
Speaker 2: super Bowl odds, I got, I got nothing invested in
27:59
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh at this point, Chad, So definitely a team I've
28:01
Speaker 2: just stayed away from it this point.
28:04
Speaker 1: Reminder, you can follow me and Simon in the award
28:08
Speaker 1: winning Action Network app. You can see all of our
28:10
Speaker 1: bets right now. You can see that we loved Cleveland
28:14
Speaker 1: plus two and a half against Cincinnati in Week one.
28:18
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow's not playing. We liked that even more.
28:21
Speaker 2: It's down to a pick and plus one out in
28:23
Speaker 2: most books.
28:24
Speaker 1: There you go, that's in Cleveland. And we liked San Francisco.
28:27
Speaker 1: We liked pitt plus three at home against San Francisco
28:31
Speaker 1: in Week one. Two. That's a little bit of a
28:33
Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan inflation, and you kidding me? We're gonna bet
28:36
Speaker 1: against Mike Tomlin as a home dog in Week one
28:39
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty three NFL season. Not a chance.
28:45
Speaker 1: Guess what. Guess what, Simon, I don't know about you.
28:50
Speaker 1: I got my delivery from Factor this week. All the
28:58
Speaker 1: meals that we're getting. The prep meals fall is around
29:01
Speaker 1: the corner. We get pretty busy around here. That's why
29:04
Speaker 1: we are so excited about our new sponsor, Factor, America's
29:09
Speaker 1: number one ready to eat meal kit, who sent us
29:13
Speaker 1: ready to eat meals straight to our door. Matt, we
29:19
Speaker 1: talked about this. You've been a Factor guy for months now.
29:22
Speaker 1: I'm a Factor guy. I'm a Factor guy so much,
29:26
Speaker 1: Matt that I think they sent me eight meals forty
29:29
Speaker 1: eight hours ago. Five of them are gone, and my
29:32
Speaker 1: sixteen year old is texting me. He knows I like
29:35
Speaker 1: him so much, asking me if he can eat them.
29:38
Speaker 1: He never asked me if he can do anything, yet
29:40
Speaker 1: he knows I like Factor so much. He's asking me
29:42
Speaker 1: if he can eat my meals. Matt, you've been on
29:46
Speaker 1: this bandwagon.
29:47
Speaker 3: I would be deep cold in the ground before I
29:51
Speaker 3: let any child of mine eat one of these meals.
29:53
Speaker 3: They can eat out of a goddamn fashman before they
29:57
Speaker 3: eat one of these Factor meals. Hi head to me yesterday,
30:00
Speaker 3: I've already had my traditional ten am Central Time lunch
30:04
Speaker 3: a Factor.
30:05
Speaker 1: I love it.
30:05
Speaker 3: And one thing I failed to note last time is
30:07
Speaker 3: I've done all the meal delivery systems, all the different kits,
30:12
Speaker 3: all of them. I had issues with them being late,
30:15
Speaker 3: which the sticks are pretty high when it comes to
30:17
Speaker 3: feeding me, and Factor is the only one that has always,
30:21
Speaker 3: always always delivered exactly on time, which is crucial to
30:24
Speaker 3: keep the chains running around here. So yeah, they're delicious,
30:27
Speaker 3: they're not frozen. They just take a couple of minutes
30:29
Speaker 3: to prepare. Literally it's two minutes. And it's something that
30:32
Speaker 3: Chad and I now have in common, as we are
30:34
Speaker 3: essentially in equal shape and we'll live to an equal age.
30:39
Speaker 3: Ask anyone that knows us.
30:41
Speaker 1: You couldn't think of two people who eat from the
30:43
Speaker 1: more opposite ends of the spectrum than me and Matt Mitchell.
30:47
Speaker 1: And yet with Factor, we are skipping the trips to
30:50
Speaker 1: the grocery store. We're skipping the chopping, the prepping, the
30:53
Speaker 1: cleaning up to Factors Fresh never frozen meals are ready
30:58
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31:01
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31:22
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31:24
Speaker 1: this week. All right, Simon, we went deep on the Browns.
31:28
Speaker 1: We've said pretty much all there is to say about
31:29
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I want to leave Joe Burrow in the
31:31
Speaker 1: Bengals for last. Baltimore is at plus two twenty. Their
31:46
Speaker 1: season win total is nine and a half. It's minus
31:50
Speaker 1: one seventy to the over plus one forty to the under.
31:55
Speaker 1: Another fascinating roster, right, Like this offensive line top five
32:02
Speaker 1: according to PFF. Defensive line not very good at all,
32:06
Speaker 1: which is anomaly for the Ravens. How are you judging
32:10
Speaker 1: this team? Yeah?
32:13
Speaker 2: Really excited about their offense, right. I think this is
32:15
Speaker 2: the first time in Lamar's career he's had legit wide receivers.
32:20
Speaker 2: He's got Odell out there. It's remained to be seen
32:24
Speaker 2: by things. A Flowers is gonna be a legit good player,
32:26
Speaker 2: like that's could they drafted this year? Yeah, you know,
32:29
Speaker 2: that's the big question is what is this new offense
32:32
Speaker 2: gonna look like with Lamar? And that's the only reason people,
32:35
Speaker 2: I'm not so heavily involved on them where I like
32:38
Speaker 2: that this is year two for Watson in his system,
32:40
Speaker 2: where this is Lamar's for sure in this new system.
32:43
Speaker 2: So I think there's a lot of growing pains. You know,
32:47
Speaker 2: there are certain people where yes, I do care if
32:49
Speaker 2: they're throwing a lot of interceptions in preseason, but ninety
32:52
Speaker 2: nine percent of the time I really don't care. And
32:54
Speaker 2: Lamar's on those guys, I do not care. Lamar could
32:56
Speaker 2: throw ten picks a day, I don't care. They're just
32:59
Speaker 2: working stuff out right now. So to me, when people
33:01
Speaker 2: are like, are you worried about what you're seeing out
33:03
Speaker 2: of camp for the Ravens, not at all, Like let
33:07
Speaker 2: them work that stuff out. But yeah, it's just a
33:11
Speaker 2: weird number on them. That's why I'm not huge on
33:13
Speaker 2: them this year. Like I remember last year, we talked
33:15
Speaker 2: a lot during the off season. We liked them at
33:16
Speaker 2: twenty to one, twenty one to one to win the
33:19
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. It's weird they're eighteen to one. I don't
33:22
Speaker 2: know if they got that much better. They should have been
33:24
Speaker 2: bumped up to eighteen to one. They're still like we
33:26
Speaker 2: already talk about they're sill in the division with Joey
33:28
Speaker 2: Cool Joe Burrow, and we think the Browns are going
33:31
Speaker 2: to be better and we think, you know, Pittsburgh is
33:33
Speaker 2: still gonna be right there. So it is interesting they've
33:36
Speaker 2: bumped them down a little bit the books, but divisional odds,
33:40
Speaker 2: this would be the second team I've taken. I did
33:43
Speaker 2: put a small bet on them when the Joe Burrow
33:45
Speaker 2: first happened the injury, I didn't know if it was
33:47
Speaker 2: an acl MCL like, I didn't know what was happening
33:49
Speaker 2: to Joe. Now we do know, right it's just a
33:51
Speaker 2: calf string. He should be back to start the season.
33:55
Speaker 2: By the time I made the bet on the Ravens,
33:56
Speaker 2: I didn't know that, So I was basically just hedging
33:58
Speaker 2: my already bet that I had in Cleveland on this
34:02
Speaker 2: Ravens team. And you know, I liked them, but we
34:07
Speaker 2: can't we can't not talk about Lamar being one and
34:10
Speaker 2: three in the playoffs like that is that is a
34:12
Speaker 2: that is a real thing. Lamar in his career is
34:14
Speaker 2: one and three and last year. I still don't get
34:18
Speaker 2: why nothing ever came out of it. But this is
34:21
Speaker 2: a man that didn't show up to his team's games
34:23
Speaker 2: and their playoff game when he was hurt like that.
34:27
Speaker 2: To me, I hated it. I hated it so much
34:31
Speaker 2: just because I'm a competitor and it's just all about
34:33
Speaker 2: the team. And that was very me, me, me, me of
34:35
Speaker 2: him to not go to his team's playoff game. And
34:39
Speaker 2: you know, say what you wanted about Carson Wentz, Carson Wentz,
34:42
Speaker 2: whatever's happened in his career. That man was there every
34:45
Speaker 2: game on that Super Bowl run, and he was wearing
34:47
Speaker 2: the head set doing all that shit that you know,
34:50
Speaker 2: he hated watching another man lead his team to a
34:52
Speaker 2: super Bowl win, but he was a man and he
34:54
Speaker 2: was there for his team, and he didn't. Lamar didn't.
34:56
Speaker 2: And you know, he's got a little bit of a
34:59
Speaker 2: pass on that, But I think a lot of teammates
35:01
Speaker 2: didn't give him a pass on that, and I think
35:02
Speaker 2: he's had to earn back everything with his team, and
35:05
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not going to be big on them
35:07
Speaker 2: this year, but if this offense really clicks Lamar's getting
35:11
Speaker 2: the ball downfield with accuracy, maybe my tune will have
35:14
Speaker 2: changed midway through the season, because again he does have
35:16
Speaker 2: incredible weapons, like now that he is Odell who has
35:19
Speaker 2: apparently looked great in camp, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews. Hopefully JK.
35:23
Speaker 2: Dobbins gets back the next week or two and really
35:25
Speaker 2: starts ramping up his, uh, you know, his fitness level
35:29
Speaker 2: for this team because they need him. That that's a
35:31
Speaker 2: big deal. I have JK back at that running back position.
35:33
Speaker 2: That is a big deal to have him because he
35:35
Speaker 2: is that good. So yeah, to me, the oriason on
35:39
Speaker 2: my healthy invest in them is because all these question
35:41
Speaker 2: marks I have with this team right now, Chat, there's
35:43
Speaker 2: just too many for me. So I've I've throw a
35:45
Speaker 2: small bet on their over win total. I believe it's
35:48
Speaker 2: nine and a half at bet three six five right now,
35:50
Speaker 2: So giving a little bet on that had them at
35:54
Speaker 2: ten point ten point six, So you know, I have
35:57
Speaker 2: them at more wins in the Browns. It's just that's
35:59
Speaker 2: a fluctuate during the season. But it's mainly just because
36:04
Speaker 2: it's all there for this team, Like they have the coaching,
36:06
Speaker 2: they have the offense, they have the former MVP and
36:08
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, Like, they have to start putting it together
36:11
Speaker 2: at some point, right, this kid can't keep being one
36:14
Speaker 2: and three in his career in the playoffs. Eventually they
36:16
Speaker 2: have to start making these moves. So just historically, I
36:21
Speaker 2: like to back the Ravens after a down year and
36:24
Speaker 2: last year, people forget they were the one seed until
36:26
Speaker 2: Lamar went down. They were having a great season, really
36:30
Speaker 2: really good, putting it all together. Lamar got injured, they
36:33
Speaker 2: fought through it somehow made the playoffs as what was
36:37
Speaker 2: it a sixth seed? Maybe it was a seventh seed
36:39
Speaker 2: and Chad said it. They were literally on the goal
36:42
Speaker 2: line with a backup quarterback ready to take a seven
36:44
Speaker 2: point lead against the Bengals in the playoffs. Like, this
36:47
Speaker 2: team has the talent, it's just kNN they put it
36:49
Speaker 2: all together. So just value base wise, I think divisionally,
36:53
Speaker 2: the better odds to me are the Browns. But if
36:56
Speaker 2: you hate the Browns, you're looking for it tem the
36:57
Speaker 2: ben this division, I got no issue taking the race.
37:00
Speaker 2: They have to me the same exact amount of upside
37:03
Speaker 2: as that Browns team does they just it's all there,
37:05
Speaker 2: It's just all can they put it all together with
37:07
Speaker 2: this new offensive scheme.
37:09
Speaker 1: So here's my feeling. And I think you answered your
37:11
Speaker 1: own question, which is why are the Ravens at eighteen
37:15
Speaker 1: to one Super Bowl ads when in years past we
37:19
Speaker 1: were getting them twenty twenty two and that twenty to
37:21
Speaker 1: twenty five range. And I think it's for a couple
37:24
Speaker 1: of reasons. The bookmakers haven't forgot that this was a
37:28
Speaker 1: team that was the number one seed. The bookmakers haven't
37:31
Speaker 1: forgot that it's a team that had the Bengals beat
37:36
Speaker 1: if not for that fumble with playing with backup players,
37:41
Speaker 1: And so they haven't forgot that John Harbaugh is one
37:45
Speaker 1: of the best coaches in the NFL. They you look
37:48
Speaker 1: at it as Lamar Jackson disappeared on his team and
37:53
Speaker 1: may have been a bit Poudy, may have been sort
37:57
Speaker 1: of playing games because he was in a contract year
38:00
Speaker 1: and maybe was using hard negotiating tactics. Anything on that
38:05
Speaker 1: spectrum could have been true. But now they're looking at
38:10
Speaker 1: it as Lamar's in camp, he's healthy, he's happy, he's motivated,
38:17
Speaker 1: and all of these things might have been true in
38:20
Speaker 1: his MVP season. They might have been true in the
38:22
Speaker 1: year after, but there was diminishing motivation and diminishing health.
38:25
Speaker 1: Certainly as he got closer to that contract year. All
38:29
Speaker 1: those problems are gone, and I actually don't think players care.
38:32
Speaker 1: I think they recognize there's a business. They probably understood
38:35
Speaker 1: he was doing some of these tactics because it's a business,
38:39
Speaker 1: and he was protecting himself for what was going to
38:41
Speaker 1: be a massive contract. To me, that's water the bridge.
38:44
Speaker 1: When you're in camp and you're playing. He's their guy.
38:47
Speaker 1: They're one hundred percent behind him. I think that's why
38:50
Speaker 1: the numbers are a little bit depressed. I think it's
38:52
Speaker 1: why it is lower than we think it should be.
38:54
Speaker 2: Well, as someone that watches, you know, I don't know
38:59
Speaker 2: how many times. It's probably I probably watched the Last
39:01
Speaker 2: Dance one hundred times. At this point, Chad, did people
39:04
Speaker 2: ever forgive Scottie Pippen for sitting out in that game
39:07
Speaker 2: because he didn't get the final shot?
39:08
Speaker 1: That's different.
39:10
Speaker 2: I'm just saying that.
39:12
Speaker 1: No, it's not. No, you can't just say it's different.
39:15
Speaker 1: It's totally different. And I agree, Listen, they.
39:18
Speaker 2: Needed him, they needed him in the playoff run and
39:21
Speaker 2: he wasn't there for his team, and that again, maybe
39:23
Speaker 2: they're not saying it to the media, but as a
39:26
Speaker 2: man to a man that he left them for dead
39:29
Speaker 2: because he wanted his one whatever it was.
39:31
Speaker 1: There is a massive difference, a massive difference between Scottie
39:36
Speaker 1: Pippen petulant, petulantly saying I'm not going in the game
39:41
Speaker 1: as one of the best players in the NBA about.
39:45
Speaker 2: He said, I'm not playing in that game.
39:47
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, as the face of the franchise in
39:49
Speaker 1: the final seconds, the final seconds because I'm not getting
39:54
Speaker 1: the ball, and Lamar Jackson, who had been playing hurt
39:57
Speaker 1: all year long, deciding I'm not comfortable playing, I'm going
40:01
Speaker 1: to protect myself and then not being on the field
40:04
Speaker 1: when he wasn't going to be playing anyways because he
40:06
Speaker 1: was injured. I don't think players are going to hold
40:08
Speaker 1: that against him one hundred percent. Players should hold it
40:12
Speaker 1: against Scotty Pippen.
40:14
Speaker 2: They still do.
40:18
Speaker 1: They absolutely should. I still hold it against Scotty Pippen,
40:24
Speaker 1: And which is the right thing to do? All right? Listen,
40:27
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41:25
Speaker 1: price guaranteed. One team left to talk about the Cincinnati
41:30
Speaker 1: Joe's plus one forty at bet three sixty five. The
41:34
Speaker 1: Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same way that they
41:38
Speaker 1: started it, with a die hard commitment.
41:41
Speaker 2: The Bengals battled tenaciously.
41:44
Speaker 1: Eleven and a half, and I made a note in
41:46
Speaker 1: my notes here. I circled it. I wrote interesting, I
41:50
Speaker 1: circled that. I put three exclamation points. Okay, the over
41:55
Speaker 1: right now on bet three six five for eleven and
41:58
Speaker 1: a half wins for the Bengals plus one third under
42:01
Speaker 1: minus one sixty. Bengals have the second hardest schedule in
42:05
Speaker 1: the NFL. According to Sean Cerner. They are on the
42:08
Speaker 1: road at the Chiefs, on the road at San Francisco,
42:13
Speaker 1: on the road at Cleveland with Joe Burrow banged up
42:16
Speaker 1: against our favorite team in the division, Cleveland Browns. What
42:19
Speaker 1: are we thinking here, Simon eleven and a half, let's
42:21
Speaker 1: start with that. We don't talk about the division. We're
42:23
Speaker 1: not gonna bet Cincinnati plus one forty, but we're getting
42:27
Speaker 1: plus one thirty on over eleven and a half.
42:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's just because everyone's gonna bet the under.
42:32
Speaker 2: If you're smart, you bet the under, just because they've
42:34
Speaker 2: been so fortunate. So I would say most guys that
42:37
Speaker 2: model them out, I don't think anyone's gonna have them
42:39
Speaker 2: at twelve wins, right so right there, just because Jed
42:43
Speaker 2: already talked about it's such a hard division, and who
42:45
Speaker 2: they play outside their own division again, it's they won
42:49
Speaker 2: their division last year. That means they play a first
42:50
Speaker 2: place schedule like that's that's a big deal. That means
42:54
Speaker 2: they're guaranteed to play the Bills, They're guaranteed to play
42:56
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. Those are other teams that want their division.
42:57
Speaker 2: They're guarantee to play the Jaguars, So you know, die
43:00
Speaker 2: right there, that's a big deal. So you know, Bengals fans,
43:05
Speaker 2: don't be upset. Every pro is going to take your
43:08
Speaker 2: guys under. It's just the way it is. When you
43:10
Speaker 2: have a team as this, this overachieving year and year out,
43:15
Speaker 2: people are gonna take their under. So the general public
43:18
Speaker 2: loves this team. They love Joe Burrow. You know, they
43:22
Speaker 2: probably do have the best three wide receivers in all football.
43:24
Speaker 2: Right Boyd's their third receiver. He's probably number two or
43:27
Speaker 2: number one on most teams. Crazy talented team. It's all there.
43:31
Speaker 2: Joe Mixon's back, it's it's all there. We get it, Bengals,
43:35
Speaker 2: but can't bet it. There's no value. There's no value
43:38
Speaker 2: on this team divisionally, no value on their win total.
43:41
Speaker 2: Like I have them at right there. I got them
43:43
Speaker 2: at eleven wins, So I'll take a small bet on
43:46
Speaker 2: their under. But you know, as strong positions go, me
43:51
Speaker 2: and Chat are gonna be fading this team a lot.
43:52
Speaker 2: It's just they're the darling of most people that they
43:55
Speaker 2: just if you're a casual viewer, why would you not
43:58
Speaker 2: like betting on the Bengals. Joe Borrow has been nothing
44:00
Speaker 2: but good to you. He's been successful if you've been
44:02
Speaker 2: betting on him these last couple of years. So, yeah,
44:04
Speaker 2: just like last year, they came up that Super Bowl hangover.
44:10
Speaker 2: They had some ugly losses to start the year last year. Now,
44:13
Speaker 2: I think a lot of that goes into Joe. He'd
44:15
Speaker 2: gotten that surgery, right, what do you get is appendix removed? Yeah?
44:19
Speaker 2: I think so something like that to start the year.
44:21
Speaker 2: So he didn't have camp his rookie year. He didn't
44:25
Speaker 2: have camp because I think because of COVID. There's just
44:27
Speaker 2: Joe hasn't had a camp his entire career. Like now
44:29
Speaker 2: he's missing camp again this year with a calf stream.
44:33
Speaker 2: I expect him to come out slow. I mean shit,
44:35
Speaker 2: people forget they lost to Cooper Rush in that Dallas
44:38
Speaker 2: Cowboy team. Like they just had weird, weird starts of
44:42
Speaker 2: the season last year. I think they'll have it again
44:44
Speaker 2: this year. But this division is so good. I don't
44:46
Speaker 2: think they're gonna have the luck of Lamar getting hurt
44:50
Speaker 2: and falling off, so they're able to come and rally
44:52
Speaker 2: and win this division like they got very lucky last year.
44:56
Speaker 2: And we already talked about if you would have came
44:58
Speaker 2: to anyone two years ago and said, what odds would
45:03
Speaker 2: you give the Bengals to win this division three straight years?
45:06
Speaker 2: You've been already be giving me ten thousand and one odds. Right,
45:08
Speaker 2: this is before we know how great Joe was. They're
45:11
Speaker 2: here now, they've won two straight years. They're now, Chad,
45:14
Speaker 2: you said a plus one forty to win this division.
45:16
Speaker 2: Those are very short odds for what we talked about.
45:18
Speaker 2: It is, I'm gonna be the best division in this
45:20
Speaker 2: entire league. So yeah, just no value. You can't you
45:25
Speaker 2: can't want to bet how the pros bet and take
45:27
Speaker 2: any type of positive bet on this Bengals team, unless
45:30
Speaker 2: you want to do Joe Burrow to lead the league
45:33
Speaker 2: in passing yards or you know, any individual awards. It's
45:36
Speaker 2: just team wise, there's just no value there. This team
45:40
Speaker 2: has nothing good to bet on. Mid season. That could change,
45:45
Speaker 2: right me and Chad. If this team starts two to four,
45:48
Speaker 2: I am more than happy to come back in on
45:50
Speaker 2: this team to make the playoffs and then the Super
45:52
Speaker 2: Bowl odds, but as we sit here in August, terrible,
45:56
Speaker 2: terrible odds to bet on this team. So I hope
45:58
Speaker 2: people heed my advice. Take your fantom away. Just don't
46:02
Speaker 2: bet on this team right now. There's just no value
46:04
Speaker 2: in it. There will be later in the season right now.
46:07
Speaker 2: I just I cannot invest positively in this team right now,
46:11
Speaker 2: just because I hate to be a downer, but it's
46:14
Speaker 2: just overinflated, Like this is all over inflated just because
46:17
Speaker 2: of what they've done these past two seasons. So yeah,
46:20
Speaker 2: happy to take their under in the win total, but
46:22
Speaker 2: that's where it stops for me. I just I'm not
46:24
Speaker 2: going to be betting heavily against this team on win
46:27
Speaker 2: toll just because there's not that much value there.
46:30
Speaker 1: They added Orlando Brown Junior to the offensive line, so
46:34
Speaker 1: their offensive line, which has been an issue for years,
46:38
Speaker 1: slightly slightly better. It's interesting, it's interesting you say that
46:43
Speaker 1: about Joe Burrow and betting individual awards. Sean Kerner, in
46:49
Speaker 1: his QB Tiers piece for Action Network Download the Action
46:52
Speaker 1: Network Up, Get it on an actionnetwork dot Com says
46:56
Speaker 1: that he has Joe Burrow after Patrick Mahomes, the second
47:02
Speaker 1: most likely quarterback to throw fifty plus touchdown passes this season.
47:08
Speaker 1: So look that was before the injury. If Joe Burrow
47:13
Speaker 1: plays all seventeen games, I think that stat and that
47:17
Speaker 1: metric holds up that model for Kerner. He also pointed
47:20
Speaker 1: out he's better as a fantasy quarterback than you would
47:25
Speaker 1: think because last season he had twenty five plus rush
47:30
Speaker 1: yards and or one touchdown in half of the games
47:34
Speaker 1: that he played, so much better. To Simon's point, if
47:40
Speaker 1: you want to, if you have to bet on the Bengals,
47:44
Speaker 1: look for some longerish odds on Joe Burrow individual passing stats.
47:49
Speaker 1: But yeah, generally we're passing on the Bengals. I feel
47:52
Speaker 1: like this is the best division of football. I think
47:55
Speaker 1: we've proven it, and we're walking away to me with
47:58
Speaker 1: one bet that we absolutely positively love based on the pricing,
48:05
Speaker 1: and one bet that we love if you can get
48:07
Speaker 1: a reduced juice, and both of them are the Cleveland Browns.
48:10
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns plus three fifty at bet three six five
48:12
Speaker 1: to win the division. Cleveland Brown's over eight and a half.
48:16
Speaker 1: Right now, it's pretty expensive. Minus one seventy at bet
48:19
Speaker 1: three six five. But Simon, you've got him at nearly
48:22
Speaker 1: a game and a half better than that, so probably
48:25
Speaker 1: worth taking a plunge there.
48:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, just really tough lines with this division and the book.
48:30
Speaker 2: The books are smart the.
48:31
Speaker 1: Way they said these best division in football.
48:35
Speaker 2: And I would say the only reason I wouldn't bet
48:37
Speaker 2: that Joe Burrow to reach that number of touchdown passes
48:41
Speaker 2: is Joe Mixon is too good. Like I think there's
48:43
Speaker 2: there's too many times there'll be in the red zone
48:45
Speaker 2: and they'll just feed it to Joe, Like Joe has
48:48
Speaker 2: a nose, Joe Mix, I'm talking here, he has a
48:50
Speaker 2: nose for the end zone. That's the only knockout I
48:53
Speaker 2: have on that. Just they have a top five running back.
48:56
Speaker 2: It's really hard not to feed that guy when you
48:58
Speaker 2: get in the red zone. He's just that good. So yeah, Chad,
49:02
Speaker 2: the only other bet I'd really make other than the
49:04
Speaker 2: Browns would be the over for that Ravens team. But
49:07
Speaker 2: you're you're right, Like, do I feel really confidhanded out
49:10
Speaker 2: the bangles under?
49:11
Speaker 1: No?
49:12
Speaker 2: I really have to hold my nose and do it.
49:14
Speaker 2: Like it sucks to bet against Joe Burrow, but We're
49:17
Speaker 2: just going by the book, and the book says you
49:19
Speaker 2: take this under in one of the toughest divisions of football.
49:23
Speaker 1: By the way, the under is minus one sixty. So
49:26
Speaker 1: you're not getting, you know, any kind of favors or
49:28
Speaker 1: discounts because that's it, you know that, That's what a
49:32
Speaker 1: lot of people are thinking about. Yeah, all right, listen,
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