Latest / Toadstool Sports / Friday BEST BETS | Can I Get Anything Right? | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/3/26

Transcript

Friday BEST BETS | Can I Get Anything Right? | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 7/3/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm and a.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Hole in your chips. The black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:25
  Speaker 3: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head.
• 0:29
  Speaker 4: Now you stare at the chips.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Like they made you this man.
• 0:33
  Speaker 4: But don't you go quiet?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 4: Your name steal mean something on somebody for show?
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby, look at me, now, hold on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: hold on, nothing nice not no, hold.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: On, hold on, let me.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: But it don't get the crown.
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: And stay with me. Now, what's up? Everybody? It's towed
• 1:29
  Speaker 4: back with you toadstool sports. Happy July fourth weekend, everybody,
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: Hopefully everybody's celebrating that. There's nothing to celebrate on this
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: fucking show. Everybody, have a good, good day, today, good night, tonight.
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: Don't listen to me. Why are you even here? Go celebrate?
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: Don't work today, Go launch some fireworks. Drink beer even
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: though I'm a sober man. Now I've got some fun
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: theme non alcoholic beers here. Go do some cooking out whatever,
• 2:01
  Speaker 4: celebrate the independence of America? Go do it? What else
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: do you want me to say? Yesterday, we obviously should
• 2:11
  Speaker 4: have won Cincinnati. Milwaukee first five under Chase Burns was good.
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: Jacob Mizerowski one inning, he gave up four runs. Guess
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: how many of those runs were earned runs? Did you
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: watch the game? Guess how many zero zero earned runs. So,
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: if you want to take into account, like just the
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: runs that were earned in that game, the score was
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: one to one at the end of the fifth inning
• 2:35
  Speaker 4: based on the earned runs four unearned runs scored in
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: the second inning by Cincinnati. What do you want me
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: to do? Milwaukee just fielding mistakes and the whole thing
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: just blows up. I can't get anything right, even though
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: that was clearly the correct play, and then the other
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: one wasn't right from ber Valdez can just fuck off.
• 2:57
  Speaker 4: I hate that guy. I hate Valdez. He should have
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: had a good matchup there. Yeah that didn't happen because
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: he sucked ass and Evaldi was fine enough. But yeah,
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: Valdez was so bad that it didn't even matter. That
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: game could That game had no chance to go under.
• 3:15
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna give you multiple plays today, and you know
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: they're all gonna lose. So don't listen to anything that
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: I have to say here. Yeah, whatever, we have an
• 3:25
  Speaker 4: afternoon Wrigley game again. I don't know why. I mean,
• 3:28
  Speaker 4: I do know why, because it's historic Wrigley, the last
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: stadium to get lights. Whatever this is Saint Louis and
• 3:35
  Speaker 4: the Cubs. It's not really good for the Cubs because
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: the Cubs played yesterday. I'm pretty sure, right or no way,
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: they were off yesterday. What am I talking about? Saint
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Louis did play yesterday? All right, never mind, So yeah,
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: it's it's not good for Saint Louis. Saint Louis played
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: yesterday and they beat Atlanta, and now Saint Louis has
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: to turn around and play an afternoon game, traveling from
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: Atlanta to Chicago after a big win over the Braves.
• 3:59
  Speaker 4: So yeah, this is a bad spot for Saint Louis. However,
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: if you want to play the Cubs here, you have
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: to back good old David Peterson. So do you think
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: I want to do that? No, no, I do not.
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: The Cubs were off yesterday. Cubs of course the prior game,
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: I believe they had a twenty three to three win,
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: is that right? Yes? Over San Diego. I mean I
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: don't really want any part of the Cubs after they
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: won twenty three to three. You know what I mean,
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: any team that wins like that, I don't think you
• 4:32
  Speaker 4: want to play on them in the next game. That's
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: also kind of keeping me off the over, because I
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: actually do like the over in this game. The Cubs,
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: of course, have arrested bullpen. Saint Louis's bullpen is trashed.
• 4:44
  Speaker 4: They used six guys out of the bullpen yesterday. The
• 4:47
  Speaker 4: Cubs are the number ten bullpen based on whip. I
• 4:51
  Speaker 4: think there may be a little bit better than that.
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis is twenty first. I think they're probably not
• 4:56
  Speaker 4: that bad either, but yeah, the Cubs clearly have a
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: bullpen advantage here. Cubs are number three in offense. They've
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: been hitting better well. I mean, they just scored twenty
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: three runs. That's gonna skew their numbers a bit, but
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: they're still a good offense. Saint Louis is middle of
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: the pack sixteenth, tied with Baltimore. Saint Louis is going
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: with Andre Piante, who doesn't really have bad numbers really,
• 5:19
  Speaker 4: even though I don't think he's that good. Three point
• 5:22
  Speaker 4: eight three RA, one point two to three whip, that's
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: not awful. He's good on the road. Two point seven
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: three Roady ra although he did face the Cubs at
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: the end of May at home, and that wasn't good.
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: He gave up eight hits, four runs in three innings,
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: three strikeouts, one walk. Yeah, not great. His numbers against
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: the Cubs, yeah, not great. In seventy six at bats,
• 5:47
  Speaker 4: three eighty two, batting average allowed, one thousand and seventy
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: two ohps twelve, ten strike out walk ratio very bad. So,
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: you know, I mean, even though I know Chicago you
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: want to fade the they put up twenty three runs
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: in the last game. I don't really see them being
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: held to a low run total here, you know what
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: I mean? Pretty much all the indicators, they look like
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: they have a good offensive matchup here. Even though Payante's
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: in the good road split of his year. I don't
• 6:17
  Speaker 4: want to back the Cubs as a side because I'm
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: not gonna back David Peterson. This guy blows. He wasn't
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: even good enough for the Mets. Although you know, like
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: I said with Eric Lauer, you could make the argument that,
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: well Peterson was on the Mets. You know, he was
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: on this team that was struggling. Maybe him going to
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: a contending team will actually make him pitch better, It's possible.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: I've never thought that Peterson was good. Though He's got
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: a five point eight six e R, one point five
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: to nine whip that's not good seven point one five
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: home era, but take into account that was pretty much
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: all with the Mets. In fact, I believe he only
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: has one start so far with the Cubs, which was
• 6:56
  Speaker 4: this last outing against Milwaukee, and he was okay. He
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: held Milwaukee to two earned runs in five to two
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: thirds innings in Milwaukee, two strikeouts, no walks. I mean,
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: he was better than you could hope for. Is he
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: gonna continue pitching that well? Yeah, I don't know about that. Uh,
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: probably not. Numbers against Saint Louis not good twenty four
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: at bats, although pretty much all of their hitters have
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: seen him. Three seventy five average, one thousand and forty
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: eight ohps, five to two strike out walk ratio. So
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: leg I said, I think you gotta go over if
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: you're gonna play this game. It's not gonna be on
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: my card. But I don't love playing the over with
• 7:35
  Speaker 4: the Cubs coming off a twenty three run effort, and
• 7:38
  Speaker 4: maybe the Cubs will be a little bit lesser offensively,
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: just because they didn't play yesterday. Of course they're not
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: gonna put up twenty three runs again. But this to
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: me still looks like it's gonna be a high scoring game.
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: The money doesn't agree. Sixty three percent of tickets on
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: the over, fifty five percent of the cash on the under.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: I don't understand what's going on with understand what's going
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: on with that. The totals ten and a half. So
• 8:00
  Speaker 4: the odds makers are kind of telling you they think
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: it's gonna be a high scoring game, but it looks
• 8:03
  Speaker 4: like it's probably also because of the Wrigley Lake effect,
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: which you know that always affects the total. Last Cub series,
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: that was part of the reason why the Cubs put
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: up so many runs was they're basically playing in hurricane
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: force wins, blowing out of the stadium in that game,
• 8:21
  Speaker 4: and it still didn't even help San Diego that much.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean that series was definitely was like
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: definitely an over type of series. You know, maybe this
• 8:31
  Speaker 4: one will be as well. I think over makes the
• 8:34
  Speaker 4: most sense to me in this game. Money is backing
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis. I can kind of see the argument for it,
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: but I mean, I would only do it in the
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: first five. There's no way that you could back Saint
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: Louis full game here. I mean, they're the unrested team
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: and having to travel, and they don't have a good bullpen,
• 8:51
  Speaker 4: and their bullpen's unrested. Seventy percent of the tickets on
• 8:55
  Speaker 4: the Cubs, eighty eight percent of the cash on Saint Louis.
• 8:58
  Speaker 4: You know, I don't even know if I agree with
• 9:00
  Speaker 4: Saint Louis. I wouldn't touch that. I think over is
• 9:04
  Speaker 4: the only way to really look at that game. But
• 9:06
  Speaker 4: still not gonna do it. Pittsburgh and Washington. Washington is
• 9:12
  Speaker 4: returning home from a road trip, and you know I
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: talk about road trip returns not a good spot. You
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: have to get back to home life. Washington somehow unloaded
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: on the Red Sox pitching at the end of that
• 9:23
  Speaker 4: last years. The Washington is one of the best road
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: offenses though in baseball. But they just went to Baltimore
• 9:29
  Speaker 4: and then Boston, not really a long road trip geographically,
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: but still returning home from being away for a week. However,
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: Washington clearly has a starting pitching advantage here, so I
• 9:41
  Speaker 4: don't really want to fade them. Pittsburgh just had a
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: pretty good win over Philadelphia. They split the series with Philadelphia,
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: and Pittsburgh played yesterday, so you know, I don't really
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: want to fade Washington for that reason.
• 9:56
  Speaker 5: Either.
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: Washington has a rest advantage. Washington did not play yesterday.
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: Washington is returning over from a road trip, which is
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: a negative because you get distracted, you have to get
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: back to home life whatever. Pittsburgh played yesterday though, and
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: beat Philadelphia, so that's not a good spot for Pittsburgh either.
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: As far as the bullpens, yeah, I mean these are
• 10:17
  Speaker 4: not good bullpens. Pittsburgh twenty second, Washington twenty sixth. That's
• 10:22
  Speaker 4: pretty much about accurate. Pittsburgh is the better of the
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: two for what that's worth, but they're also not rested.
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh used three relief pitchers yesterday Washington. Both teams have
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: a good offense, Pittsburgh number two, Washington number four. This
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: could be another high scoring series here. I know, I
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: feel like some of these games just seem like overs here.
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: Mitch Keller is pitching for Pittsburgh. He you know, I mean,
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: he's been okay, but he had a bit of an
• 10:48
  Speaker 4: issue recently, had a couple of bad starts over the
• 10:52
  Speaker 4: past month. Four point eight seventy RA one point three
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: whip not great, pretty good on the road, three point
• 10:58
  Speaker 4: nine to six roady RA. He was fine in his
• 11:01
  Speaker 4: last two starts, so those are both at home, but
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: he bounced back, had a couple of good starts there after.
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: He was just walking a lot of guys for a
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: few starts in a row. I don't know what the
• 11:11
  Speaker 4: deal was with that. He's got a pretty low hit
• 11:13
  Speaker 4: rate here, his walk rate is too high to some degree,
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: I would say, yeah, and his strike out rate is
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: not that high. Keller against Washington not good. In ninety
• 11:26
  Speaker 4: two at bats. They've had a lot of experience against him.
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: Three zero four batting average, seven to seventy seven OPS,
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: eighteen to seven strike out walk ratio. None of that
• 11:36
  Speaker 4: is really good at all. By the way, I did
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: forget to just do the overview of these other pitchers.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: Payonte has kind of a low hit rate for Saint
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: louis pretty low walk rate, but he doesn't strike anybody out.
• 11:47
  Speaker 4: So just giving you the style overview there, and David
• 11:51
  Speaker 4: Peterson blows. Peterson has a high hit rate, high walk rate,
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: and his strike gut rate is mediocre, I would say,
• 11:59
  Speaker 4: so that's what you're getting there. Anyway, back to this game,
• 12:02
  Speaker 4: Washington has Foster Griffin pitching one of the biggest surprises
• 12:06
  Speaker 4: of the year. Really, Like, again, you don't really get
• 12:09
  Speaker 4: a thirty year old guy who just doesn't have much
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: major league experience and he's having a great season. I
• 12:15
  Speaker 4: don't get it, but I mean I don't see too
• 12:17
  Speaker 4: much of a reason to question it. He's got a
• 12:19
  Speaker 4: two point nine to three ERA, one point zero four whip.
• 12:22
  Speaker 4: This is good stuff. He's a little bit worse at
• 12:25
  Speaker 4: home three point one to two home ERA. He was
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: awesome in June. He had a thirty three to four
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: strike got walk ratio and one point one five ERA
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: in June. He allowed one or zero earned run in
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: every start in June. Yeah, that's pretty good, you know. Uh,
• 12:43
  Speaker 4: he's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, reasonably
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: high strikeout rate. Yeah, I mean it looks legitimate to me.
• 12:51
  Speaker 4: And he's going up against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has fifteen of
• 12:56
  Speaker 4: bats against it. They have actually had success against them.
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: The six Eyes that have faced him three point thirty
• 13:01
  Speaker 4: three average, nine to eight OPS, four to one strike
• 13:05
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio. Yeah, I mean, Griffin still is the
• 13:09
  Speaker 4: better pitcher here. The money is coming in on Washington.
• 13:12
  Speaker 4: Washington's at about minus one forty seventy two percent of
• 13:15
  Speaker 4: the tickets, ninety five percent of the cash on Washington,
• 13:19
  Speaker 4: I mean Washington. They do have a rest advantage, they
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: do have the better starting pitcher. They're also in a
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: dreaded return home spot, which I don't like. Totals nine
• 13:28
  Speaker 4: and a half fifty three percent of tickets, fifty nine
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: percent of the cash on the over. Again, I think
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: maybe the over is the better way to play this.
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: I don't like this one nearly as much as the
• 13:38
  Speaker 4: other one, even though the market actually agrees with this
• 13:40
  Speaker 4: one more that other game. I think both starters are
• 13:44
  Speaker 4: pretty fatabal Pyonte and Peterson this game. I don't dislike
• 13:49
  Speaker 4: either of these starters as much, but they don't have
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: good matchup numbers. Then you have two bad bullpens here,
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: so that might be enough to get the job done
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: on the over here. I don't want to do it,
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: but that might be the way I would lean. Although
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: hitting a lot of times will struggle a little bit
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: upon the return home spot. The hitters can be distracted
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: and whatever. So yeah, I mean it's a game. I'm
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: staying away from again Minnesota and the Yankees. The Yankees
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: have lost six games in a row. I don't know
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: seven games in a row. Excuse me. I think before
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: that they hadn't lost more than like four in a
• 14:22
  Speaker 4: row all season. They got swept by the Red Sox
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: in a four game series and then swept by Detroit
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: at home in a three game series. Detroit's not even
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: good on the road. Probably a good time for the
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: Yankees to have a day off, which is what happened yesterday.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: So the Yankees day off, staying at home should be
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: a pretty good spot for them to bounce back. Here.
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: They get Minnesota coming in Minnesota is not very good,
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: although Minnesota does hit well. At least Minnesota did not
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: play yesterday either. I don't think they beat Houston the
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: prior day. Now they're traveling from Houston to New York.
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: Both teams have a day off here. I don't know
• 15:00
  Speaker 4: that the day off is gonna help Minnesota's bullpend. This
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: is a garbage bullpend here. Yankees bullpen has actually been
• 15:06
  Speaker 4: really good. They're at number four and they have the
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: second best era right now. I don't think they're quite
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: that good, but they're pretty good. Minnesota is one of
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: the worst. They're at twenty ninth, really bad bullpen, so
• 15:19
  Speaker 4: Yankees have an advantage there. Yankees offense has dropped a
• 15:21
  Speaker 4: little bit over that past stretch. You know, you can
• 15:25
  Speaker 4: explain why they weren't that good against the Red Sox
• 15:27
  Speaker 4: because the Red Sox pitch well Minnesota or excuse the
• 15:31
  Speaker 4: Detroit you know, maybe not quite as much. So I
• 15:34
  Speaker 4: don't know how the Yankees didn't really get anything going
• 15:36
  Speaker 4: in that series. Yankees are sixth in offense right now,
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: but I think they are better than that. Minnesota eleventh.
• 15:44
  Speaker 4: Minnesota has been at capable offense as well. Minnesota's going
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: with Mike Parades starting here. Still doesn't have his mug
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: shot on ESPN. Still don't really know what to do
• 15:54
  Speaker 4: with this guy. He's kind of a small frame pitcher,
• 15:58
  Speaker 4: which kind of leads me to believe he doesn't really
• 15:59
  Speaker 4: throw that hard. But I don't really remember what his
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: scouting reports said. His numbers have been okay so far.
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: I think this is only uh yeah, this is his
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: only season in the Major So far, he's made four
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: starts and two relief appearances. Four point two six ERA,
• 16:14
  Speaker 4: one point twenty six Whip he's been good on the
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: road three point three to one road ra he's been okay,
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: Like he hasn't gone that deep into any of his outings.
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: They are ramping him up a little bit. He's thrown
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: up to seventy five pitches in his last two games basically,
• 16:28
  Speaker 4: so they're ramping him up a bit. But he doesn't
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: strike guys out. So again, like I said, I don't
• 16:33
  Speaker 4: think he throws hard, but he does have a pretty
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: low hit rate. His walk rate is not too bad,
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: so he's not really putting a lot of guys on base,
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: but he doesn't blow guys away either. The Yankees haven't
• 16:43
  Speaker 4: seen him before. I don't know how much of an
• 16:45
  Speaker 4: edge that's really gonna be. But you know, young pitchers
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: not having not having been seen before, he is usually
• 16:51
  Speaker 4: a little bit of an edge to the pitcher. But
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: in this case, I don't know. Man having to go
• 16:55
  Speaker 4: to New York and facing a New York offense here,
• 16:58
  Speaker 4: the Yankees offense, Yankees are probably gonna do some damage there.
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: Yankees are going with Garrett Cole. You know, he missed
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: an entire season with injury. He's back. He's looked pretty
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: good at times. He's looked not so good at times,
• 17:12
  Speaker 4: already a four point h six ERA one point two
• 17:15
  Speaker 4: to two whip. You know, I don't know if he's
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: ever gonna be what he once was, because he is
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: up there in age now at thirty five. He's still
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: a pretty capable pitcher. Though probably he's still a pretty
• 17:26
  Speaker 4: good pitcher. I would say his numbers are all right there.
• 17:29
  Speaker 4: He's been good at home so far at three point
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: one two ERA. Wasn't good against the Red Sox last
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: time or Detroit the time before that. Cole kind of
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: notoriously struggles in Fenway Park though, although this current Red
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: Sox iteration is not a good hitting team, neither is
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: Detroit really so not a great sign that he wasn't
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: great in those starts. He did still have ten strikeouts
• 17:51
  Speaker 4: in two walks, though, so his command was all right,
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: but he was too hittable in those two starts. Overall,
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: his numbers are not bad here. Hit ray below one
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: per inning is, walk rate is okay. Strikeout rate is
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: not what it once was, though it's a little bit
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: low for what you usually get out of him. His numbers,
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: it gets Minnesota, they're kind of weird. I mean Minnesota
• 18:13
  Speaker 4: on these four hitters who have faced him twenty five
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: at bats. It's a small sample, but half of the
• 18:18
  Speaker 4: hits they have against them are home runs, two from
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: Buckston and one from Larnac. They have nine strikeouts, four walks,
• 18:25
  Speaker 4: three walks from Bell two forty average, not really high,
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: but a nine to forty five ops. I don't know
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: what you do with that information because it's such a
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: small sample size, Like, does Minnesota actually hit him? Well,
• 18:39
  Speaker 4: maybe they do. You know, Minnesota is at least capable.
• 18:43
  Speaker 4: I don't know. This total is high, man, this is
• 18:46
  Speaker 4: high for for a Garrett Cole game. The totals at
• 18:50
  Speaker 4: ten and the money's backing the over sixty two percent
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash on the over.
• 18:56
  Speaker 4: I probably agree with the over on this one. I
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: think they're there might be more ways to get there
• 19:01
  Speaker 4: with the over than anything else in this game. Yankees
• 19:05
  Speaker 4: are public, of course, that makes sense. They're always gonna
• 19:08
  Speaker 4: be eighty five percent of they are almost always eighty
• 19:11
  Speaker 4: five percent of tickets, eighty seven percent of the cash
• 19:13
  Speaker 4: on them. They're at minus one eighty seven though, or so.
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: I mean, you're paying too much of a price for
• 19:20
  Speaker 4: the Yankees. Man almost always. You know, with Garrett Cole
• 19:23
  Speaker 4: on the mound and the Yankees, you know, you have
• 19:25
  Speaker 4: to pay a premium for the Yankees. You can't really
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: lay the money line with them, you know. I mean,
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: if you wanted to do like a run line se
• 19:33
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't even do that. I don't think even though
• 19:35
  Speaker 4: they should bounce back and win here, you would expect.
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: But I think if you're gonna try to just back
• 19:41
  Speaker 4: the Yankees here, I would back the Yankees team total over.
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: And you know, maybe that's the better way to do it,
• 19:46
  Speaker 4: because I think if the game's gonna go over, it's
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: gonna be the Yankees doing most of that damage. And
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: I know the Yankees have not been hitting well recently,
• 19:53
  Speaker 4: but this is still a really good offense. Even with
• 19:55
  Speaker 4: Judge not there, this is probably a little bit more ideal.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: I know, you don't know what you're gonna get out
• 20:01
  Speaker 4: of parades. Maybe the Yankees will struggle to figure him out,
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: but you do have Minnesota's bullpen in your back pocket.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: If you do it that way. Yeah, I think either
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: over or Yankees team total over makes the most sense there.
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: Though if you do the Yankees one, you're gonna need
• 20:15
  Speaker 4: them to probably score six runs here, so they're capable
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: of doing it. But yeah, I mean, I'm gonna you know,
• 20:24
  Speaker 4: I'm staying away. The next game will be a play
• 20:26
  Speaker 4: for me. This game. This is mostly a situational play.
• 20:36
  Speaker 4: But I do think we have the better starting pitcher
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: for us as well. With Baltimore money line full game
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: minus one twenty, I think we got a lot of
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: advantages here. Baltimore has a rest advantage. So Baltimore did
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: not play yesterday. They did beat the White Sox, but
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: the good thing about that is it ended a Dude,
• 20:54
  Speaker 4: what the fuck? What is going on here? Paul Skins
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: in an A's uniform? Is he gonna get traded to
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: the A's what's happening? I don't think so.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: Uh.
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: Baltimore beat the White Sox in their last game, but
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's gonna put them in a letdown
• 21:08
  Speaker 4: spot here because they ended a four game losing streak.
• 21:11
  Speaker 4: So I think you get positive momentum a lot of
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: times when you break a losing streak, and I think
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: that momentum tends to carry over when you start a
• 21:19
  Speaker 4: new series, usually starting starting a new road series, I
• 21:22
  Speaker 4: mean starting a road trip. Usually your focus because you
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: want to get the road trip off on the right foot.
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is rested. Cincinnati not only played yesterday, but they
• 21:31
  Speaker 4: beat Milwaukee, and I told you they were aided by
• 21:34
  Speaker 4: bad fielding which killed our underplay, which absolutely should have
• 21:38
  Speaker 4: been a winner. Really, the more questionable questionable part of
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: that was gonna be Chase Burns, and Burns was really
• 21:45
  Speaker 4: good in the game and Missierowski wasn't even bad in
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: the game. Just the fielding ruined the game. Four under
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: and runs. Dude, there is nothing you could do about that.
• 21:54
  Speaker 4: Nothing you could do about it. Now, Cincinnati, they did
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: also end a four game losing streak, so since they're
• 22:01
  Speaker 4: in that similar spot in that way where they broke
• 22:04
  Speaker 4: a losing streak. But the reason why I don't like
• 22:06
  Speaker 4: this for Cincinnati is they don't have a day off
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: and the returning home from a road trip, so this
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: is a multiple negative here. You know, I talk about
• 22:14
  Speaker 4: when a team returns home from the road a lot
• 22:16
  Speaker 4: of times they get distracted, and their road trip is
• 22:19
  Speaker 4: a big deal. They went to Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, so
• 22:21
  Speaker 4: they played all divisional opponents. Finally got a big win.
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: They beat miss Zurowski yesterday. Man, that's a big deal.
• 22:27
  Speaker 4: And now they're returning home from that. I think it
• 22:29
  Speaker 4: could be a letdown spot plus lack of rest, plus
• 22:32
  Speaker 4: it's a return home spot, and it could be a
• 22:34
  Speaker 4: distraction because how much attention do you think Cincinnati is
• 22:37
  Speaker 4: gonna pay to an American League team coming in and
• 22:40
  Speaker 4: not even a particularly good one. Yeah, I don't know.
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: It does not look like the best spot for Cincinnati
• 22:46
  Speaker 4: to me at all. So this is this is the
• 22:48
  Speaker 4: best situational spot on the board. But I also think
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: that we have the better starting pitcher here and the
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: better bullpen, so I like that too. Cincinnati's bullpen is trash.
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: They used three guys yesterday. At least Burns kind of
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: saved them a little bit. But they're the twenty eighth
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: ranked bullpen, so this is definitely a bullpen you could fade.
• 23:07
  Speaker 4: Baltimore is ranked fourteenth. They're like a mediocre bullpen. So
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: I think I'm okay with leaving Baltimore's bullpen, and especially
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: given that they're rested as well in Cincinnati's is and
• 23:17
  Speaker 4: so that should exacerbate the somewhat you know, the bullpen
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: edge that they have to some extent hitting wise, Baltimore
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: is also better. Baltimore's tied in sixteenth with the Cardinals.
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: The Birds both sixteenth. There, the Reds have not been
• 23:33
  Speaker 4: hitting well. The Reds are twenty third tied with the
• 23:35
  Speaker 4: Blue Jays, not a good sign, even though they probably
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: do hit a little bit better at home. We're gonna
• 23:40
  Speaker 4: back Trevor Rodgers now. His matchup numbers don't look that good,
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: but it's a small sample size. And I know I've
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: been blasting Rogers this season because I don't know what
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: happened to him, because last year he was actually awesome
• 23:51
  Speaker 4: for the Orioles, just from out of nowhere. This year
• 23:54
  Speaker 4: he has not been good. However, if you look at
• 23:57
  Speaker 4: what he's done over his past few starts, he looks
• 24:00
  Speaker 4: like he's in form again. Man, So Rogers looks like
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: he is starting to pitch better again. It is becoming
• 24:05
  Speaker 4: a beautiful day in the neighborhood again. I know his
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: numbers don't look very good here four point nine to
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: ninety RA one point three to one whip. He probably
• 24:14
  Speaker 4: indicates his era should be a little bit better than
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: it is. He's been slightly less bad on the road,
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: but really close era wise there four point nine to
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: four road ra But you look at what he's done
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: over the month of June. He had a two point
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: zero five ERA, twenty three strikeouts, six walks, twenty two
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: hits allowed in thirty and two thirds innings. So while
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: that wasn't really a high strikeout rate, he wasn't walking guys,
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: he wasn't allowing hits, and he was not allowing runs.
• 24:41
  Speaker 4: And he faced a couple of good offenses in there too.
• 24:44
  Speaker 4: He faced Dodgers on the road, Washington at home. Those
• 24:48
  Speaker 4: were his last two starts. He went thirteen to third
• 24:50
  Speaker 4: innings over those two starts and only allowed six hits
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: and one ear in run, had thirteen strikeouts and two walks.
• 24:57
  Speaker 4: So he looks like he's back right now. Man, He's
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: a good That is a good sign that he was
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: able to basically shred two of the top five offenses
• 25:05
  Speaker 4: in baseball. That's good. So Rogers looks like he's back
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: in form here, man. And I did warn you he
• 25:12
  Speaker 4: does not have good numbers against Cincinnati, but I'm okay
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: with it because he's he's still the better pitcher here
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: and he still has better a better matchup outlook than
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: what's on the other side, which I'll talk about in
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: a minute. Rogers only fourteen at bats against Cincinnati, So
• 25:28
  Speaker 4: how much weight do you really put into that. They
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: do have a two eighty six average against him, and
• 25:32
  Speaker 4: they do have two of them runs off him, blid
• 25:35
  Speaker 4: A and De la Cruz eleven to twenty six ops.
• 25:38
  Speaker 4: I know that looks bad. It's really high, but again,
• 25:41
  Speaker 4: only six of their hitters have faced him. It's a
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: small sample. They haven't seen Rogers this year, so they're
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: not recently familiar with him. I don't even know if
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: they faced him last year, to be honest, So Rodgers
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: is not really familiar to them, you know. And Rodgers,
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: like I said, his career wasn't really that good until
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: last year when he found something it started better. So
• 26:01
  Speaker 4: I don't think we could put I don't think we
• 26:03
  Speaker 4: should put that much weight into these numbers. Six to
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: three strike a walker ra this year. They're also not
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: that good. But I prefer what we see there to
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: Brady Singer, who is just not great and not in
• 26:13
  Speaker 4: good form right now. Singer, he's definitely the worst of
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: these two pitchers. Five point one two ERA, one point
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: five to four whip, not good. He is good at home, though,
• 26:22
  Speaker 4: I realize that three point twenty five Homie Ray, so
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: he's been much better at home, So usually you do
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: want to not really fade him when he's at home.
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna do it anyway. I know the last time
• 26:33
  Speaker 4: at home he pitched well against Milwaukee. That is a
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: good sign. He was good in the previous home start,
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: but that was against the Mets. I mean, they are
• 26:40
  Speaker 4: a crap offense. He was bad in his last start,
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: but it was on the road against Pittsburgh, So maybe
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: you do have to give him a pass for that
• 26:47
  Speaker 4: because Pittsburgh they're a good hitting team at home. But
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: I just don't love what we're seeing out a Singer.
• 26:53
  Speaker 4: Dude just overall, really really high hit rate overall. I
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: know it's gone down a bit this past month, but
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, he faced some really weak offenses
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: in there. San Diego, Mets. Baltimore is obviously a step
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: up from those two teams. Singer still is a pretty
• 27:11
  Speaker 4: low strikeout rate. His walk rate actually isn't too bad,
• 27:14
  Speaker 4: but his problem is he's way too hittable and he
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: does allow a fair amount of home runs even though
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: he's not really a huge fly ball pitcher. The home
• 27:22
  Speaker 4: runs could be an issue, you know, back at home here,
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: even though I know his era is better at home,
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: but you look at his numbers against Baltimore. He doesn't
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: do well against Baltimore. They have twenty six at bats
• 27:33
  Speaker 4: against him. I know it's not the biggest sample, but
• 27:36
  Speaker 4: it's you know, not it's at least I think we
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: can gauge something from this three zero eight batting average
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: allowed nine to seventy three ohps. And it's not just
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: like one guy, you know, doing a bunch of damage here.
• 27:47
  Speaker 4: It's the whole lineup kind of evenly spaced out with
• 27:51
  Speaker 4: the damage there. Seven strikeouts, two walks. Yeah, so I
• 27:55
  Speaker 4: like it, man. The situation I think is really strong
• 27:57
  Speaker 4: to play Baltimore here for all the reasons I gave you.
• 28:00
  Speaker 4: The money doesn't agree. No, the money is agreeing with me.
• 28:02
  Speaker 4: Now there you go, baby, My handicapping is right on again.
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: Fifty three percent, fifty three percent of the tickets, ninety
• 28:09
  Speaker 4: three percent of the cash on Baltimore. Dude, I was
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: going against the market. Read what I was seeing when
• 28:14
  Speaker 4: I handicapped this this morning. The market was completely disagreeing
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: with me. Now it's coming to me, baby, Maybe maybe
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: it's just because I'm being spied on. I'm so you know,
• 28:25
  Speaker 4: I'm such a talented handicapper that I moved my mind
• 28:28
  Speaker 4: moves the line, you know what I mean. Or well,
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: it wasn't the line though. It was the money though.
• 28:33
  Speaker 4: But maybe it's a bunch of professionals following my lead,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: the lead of my mind. But yeah, the number hasn't
• 28:40
  Speaker 4: really moved. Baltimore's in the minus one twenties. I think
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: you can find a price right around that. Baltimore money
• 28:46
  Speaker 4: line is the play there. We also have another high
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: total there. The totals ten money coming in in the
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: over based on those you know, matchup numbers that we
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: just saw, and I don't like either bullpen either. I
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: think over does also make sense in that game. So
• 29:00
  Speaker 4: I know, four straight games, I think the over makes sense,
• 29:03
  Speaker 4: but I like Baltimore to win that game. Mister Pinsey,
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: what's up, dude? Stop saying that. Stop jinxing me. It's
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: not gonna be a fucking bounce back. There's no rhyme
• 29:14
  Speaker 4: or reason of this other than the fact that I'm
• 29:16
  Speaker 4: good at what I do. Zach, what's up? Yes, thank you,
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: I'm pissed off. Uh yeah, Gerald what's up, Kyle? What's up? Yeah?
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: Do you see the black cloud? I don't know. Is
• 29:27
  Speaker 4: it cloudy today? It feels darker. Maybe it's just my mindset,
• 29:31
  Speaker 4: but it feels like it's darker today. Maybe it is
• 29:34
  Speaker 4: raining today. I don't know, Kyle. Yes, what's up, mister Pinsey? Yeah?
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: Fuck pre game, dude. Fuck those assholes. Their ceo seems
• 29:42
  Speaker 4: like he disappeared. He used to do a podcast and
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: that podcast disappeared. They claim that they're fixing their shit,
• 29:50
  Speaker 4: and it hasn't been fixed for months now. They were
• 29:53
  Speaker 4: literally the best free tool to use for looking at
• 29:58
  Speaker 4: sportsbook action. They're done. Fuck them. Uh, I'm using wager Talk.
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: Wayger Talk is using odds Logic, which is a good screen, dude,
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: odds Logic, it's a fairly expensive tool. I'm considering maybe
• 30:12
  Speaker 4: buying it, you know, and maybe trying to cut my
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: costs otherwise. This is like a free version, a limited
• 30:19
  Speaker 4: version that doesn't refresh as quickly or whatever of odds Logic.
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: That's what wager talk uses. Wager Talk. I'm gonna tell you, dude,
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: wayser Talk. I would support them just in that they
• 30:30
  Speaker 4: have a lot of good content and they're guys are
• 30:32
  Speaker 4: the guys that have learned the most from especially Marco Diangelos,
• 30:35
  Speaker 4: and he's one of the founders of it. So he
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: left that other site to I don't know if I'm
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: allowed to talk about any of that, but I mean,
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: that's just publicly known that that's what happened on. Some
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: of the other guys also left that other site and
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: came to wager Talk. So you know Yanni the Greek
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: aka Vegas Runner Ace, you know, that guy really really
• 30:56
  Speaker 4: great with the market reading stuff. So I've been following
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: him for a long time too. And then yeah, wager
• 31:01
  Speaker 4: Talk's got some of the better content, dude, you know.
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: And I always I shout out the Morning Wager because
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: they've shouted me out before because I am always in
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: their comments section or whatever, which is Brian Power and
• 31:13
  Speaker 4: Mark Zeno, although Zeno is at one of the other sites,
• 31:17
  Speaker 4: Picks and Parlay, as I believe is what it is.
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: I think they're like sister sites though, but they put
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: on both of their YouTube channels. They have The Morning
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: Wager every weekday morning. I watch that show, and a
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: lot of times they're in line with my thinking. A
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: lot of times they're also not so you know, it's
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: always good to have, you know, differing opinions that try
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: to check your own opinion against others. You know, other
• 31:41
  Speaker 4: guys that do this, you know what I mean. So,
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: and they have a really good dynamic on that show.
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: It's it's almost like a comedy duo. So I like
• 31:48
  Speaker 4: that show, Dirty Sock, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: Thank you? Yes, reverse chinks me, yes, thank you. All right,
• 31:59
  Speaker 4: this show is taking way too long, dude. I want
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: to get through this show. Yes, I gave you Baltimore.
• 32:04
  Speaker 4: This next game, I like this next game, This next game.
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: You know, I was considering it. Let me look at
• 32:09
  Speaker 4: what Action Network says about this next game, because this
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: next game it's White Sox Cleveland. To me, it looks
• 32:17
  Speaker 4: like it's fairly one sided with the pitching matchup. Let
• 32:21
  Speaker 4: me see. Yeah, I mean, Action Network seems like it
• 32:26
  Speaker 4: has a slight agreement with me in the market read there.
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: I like Cleveland in this game, but Cleveland did win yesterday.
• 32:34
  Speaker 4: I don't know how Cleveland's offense has actually been a
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: little bit better in the last two games. They're staying
• 32:40
  Speaker 4: at home here. Of course, these seems like I said,
• 32:41
  Speaker 4: they started this series yesterday, so the series has already begun.
• 32:46
  Speaker 4: Cleveland won the game six to five. Again, kind of
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: surprising that Cleveland's offense has been able to do something
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: the last two games because we know Jose Ramirez is
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: out with a broken hand. This offense has really struggled
• 32:59
  Speaker 4: quite a bit. The White so definitely have the better offense,
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: but like I pointed out yesterday, I kind of worried
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: about I liked the White Sox pitching matchup yesterday with
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: Davis Martin, but there were some concerns with it because
• 33:12
  Speaker 4: it looked way too easy to play the White Sox,
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: and in this game, it looks even easier. Right, you
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: get the White Sox off a loss, and the White
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: Sox are gonna be an underdog here. It looks so
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: easy to take the White Sox, right, although these teams
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: I think have similar records right now. But the public,
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: the public is always playing the offense. And that's Chicago,
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: you know what I mean. So the public is gonna be,
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: oh my god, I get the White Sox offense is
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: an underdog here, They're gonna want to do that. I
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: don't like it just because I think this is a
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: pretty big pitching mismatch in favor of Cleveland, to be honest,
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: and that is why Cleveland is favored. You're paying for
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: it a little bit, but I still think the price
• 33:47
  Speaker 4: isn't that bad. Cleveland did use three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: The White Sox used four. Cleveland, Like I said yesterday,
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: I think they do have the better bullpen. The ranked seventeenth,
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: the White Sox are ranked twentieth. They both have an
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: ERA around four, but Cleveland's is on the correct side
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: of it, and I think Cleveland's is the better bullpenal
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: though Cleveland probably used their better relievers, though you know
• 34:10
  Speaker 4: what they didn't. I think Cleveland must have all won
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: the game of the ninth inning or something yesterday because
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: they use like Goddess and Festas. They're like back end
• 34:18
  Speaker 4: two guys, and those guys didn't see the game yesterday,
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: so although they were also not rested. But yeah, Cleveland,
• 34:25
  Speaker 4: so their better relievers are also available here Cleveland's. So
• 34:28
  Speaker 4: Cleveland does have a bullpen edge. White Sox clearly have
• 34:31
  Speaker 4: an offensive edge. Like I said, they're number seven, Cleveland
• 34:34
  Speaker 4: is number twenty eight. But this is again pitching I
• 34:39
  Speaker 4: think matters a little bit more than hitting. And the
• 34:41
  Speaker 4: White Sox are going with Anthony K. I don't think
• 34:45
  Speaker 4: he's good, obviously, he's I think he's kind of just
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: an older journeyman pitcher, kind of a converted relievers. He's
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: been decent this season, but I just don't think he's
• 34:55
  Speaker 4: very good. His numbers are getting worse. Four point five yr,
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: one point four to three whip is definitely not good,
• 35:02
  Speaker 4: probably as era should be higher than it is. He's
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: been bad on the road six point four Roady ra
• 35:08
  Speaker 4: pitched against Cleveland two starts ago. He did really well
• 35:12
  Speaker 4: though at home against Cleveland. That was his only really
• 35:15
  Speaker 4: good recent start. Well, actually he pitched really well against
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers at home as well, But all of his
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: recent road starts were bad. And his recent home start
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: was bad as well against Kansas City. You know, that's
• 35:27
  Speaker 4: not good that he did bad against Kansas City and
• 35:29
  Speaker 4: his last start because Kansas City they can't hit on
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: the road, so that is not a good sign. But yes,
• 35:36
  Speaker 4: K did pretty much dominate Cleveland to start before that.
• 35:39
  Speaker 4: In Chicago, he went six shutout innings, eight strikeouts, two walks,
• 35:43
  Speaker 4: three hits loud. That was like he looked like a
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: really good pitcher. In that one, so Cleveland. You know,
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: part of my worry here is that Cleveland doesn't match
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: up well against him. Now Cleveland did just see him,
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: so that might help them, you know, figure him out
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: and do better this time. And yeah, I think Ven's
• 36:00
  Speaker 4: offense will at least get something done against him. Here.
• 36:04
  Speaker 4: They have eighteen of bats against him one to sixty
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: seven average four point fifty two obs. I just don't
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: really know if I want to jump in and fade that, man,
• 36:12
  Speaker 4: I mean, this is still bad. Uh Cleveland. They have
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: no extra base hits against him, six strikeouts, three walks,
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: so most of that is that one to start from K.
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: My worry here is that even though a lot of
• 36:24
  Speaker 4: things line up against K here, like the fact that
• 36:26
  Speaker 4: he sucks, he's really bad on the road, wasn't good
• 36:29
  Speaker 4: in his last start. But he does have a good
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: match up here. So that's one of my issues with it.
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: But obviously Gavin Williams is the better pitcher here. He's
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: going for Cleveland. He's having a good season. I think
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: this has been his best season so far, at least,
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: don't want to jinx him. Three point eight one ERA
• 36:46
  Speaker 4: one point one to seven whip really good at home
• 36:48
  Speaker 4: two point seven four homi RA, so the home road
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: splits heavily favor Williams here. Williams has been pitching pretty
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: well pretty much throughout the last month month. Plot basically
• 37:02
  Speaker 4: had a bad start in there at Milwaukee, you know.
• 37:05
  Speaker 4: I mean, he wasn't as bad as maybe it looked,
• 37:07
  Speaker 4: because he didn't really put that many guys on base
• 37:09
  Speaker 4: in that one. Other than that, he's allowed three or
• 37:12
  Speaker 4: fewer earned runs in whatever that is. I think that's
• 37:18
  Speaker 4: I can't, dude, I can't. I can't see how many
• 37:20
  Speaker 4: rows there are anymore because of my stroke seven of
• 37:23
  Speaker 4: his last eight games. I think that's what that is.
• 37:25
  Speaker 4: He's got a high strikeout rate, so he's fooling guys
• 37:28
  Speaker 4: at the major league level low hit rate, they haven't
• 37:30
  Speaker 4: really been able to hit him that well. He's a grinder.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: He's thrown a lot of innings already, though sometimes that
• 37:36
  Speaker 4: will catch up with you as the season goes. But
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: it looks like he's been a little bit more limited recently.
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: Well really it's because he's been inefficient with his pitches though,
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: so maybe that's a little bit of an issue. His
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: walk rate is reasonably low as well. He did face
• 37:51
  Speaker 4: the White Sox in that series that I mentioned that
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: was a couple series ago. He did well. He pitched
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: on the road in that one where he's not as good.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: He only went five innings. He was a little bit inefficient,
• 38:03
  Speaker 4: but he had eight strikeouts, one walk, two runs, a
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: lot of five hits. So he did pitch well there.
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: And he does have good numbers against the White Sox,
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: so he's able to silence this good offense. They have
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: thirty one at bats against him. Ten strikeouts is a
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: lot four walks, although a lot of that was the
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: last start two twenty six average, six h five ops.
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: Williams has been good. Like I said, I would play
• 38:28
  Speaker 4: Cleveland if I was going to play this game close
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: to making the cut. And but dude, I don't want
• 38:32
  Speaker 4: to talk about close to making the cut because you
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: remember what my first game was that I left off
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: my card yesterday, first five under in Anaheim and Seattle.
• 38:41
  Speaker 4: That was a one nothing game. For the full game yesterday,
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: Urania was wild. I will say that he walked a
• 38:49
  Speaker 4: bunch of guys in the game, but he allowed one
• 38:51
  Speaker 4: run I think, or maybe no runs in the game.
• 38:53
  Speaker 4: So yeah, that game would have been a winner. For
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: me if I just added it to my card, I
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: was right. That was my bubble Play one game. I
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: left off the card that I liked enough to almost
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: put it on. That was my bubble Play. I'm pissed
• 39:06
  Speaker 4: because that was an easy, easy winner. Bryce Miller was
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: excellent in the game, Thomas, what's up? Thanks for hanging out?
• 39:17
  Speaker 4: All right? And then what else was I gonna say here? Oh? Yeah,
• 39:20
  Speaker 4: the market read dude, this is gonna take forever this show.
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: And we have a couple of teams not playing. Philadelphia
• 39:28
  Speaker 4: is not playing today because there's a World Cup game
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: in Philly. So Philadelphia and I forget who their opponent
• 39:35
  Speaker 4: is over the weekend, but they have a day off today.
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: Those two teams. Let me see what was I looking at?
• 39:42
  Speaker 4: Oh yeah, Cleveland. Yeah, the money is definitely back in Cleveland.
• 39:46
  Speaker 4: Fifty eight percent of tickets, eighty eight percent of the
• 39:48
  Speaker 4: cash on them or in the minus one thirty something range. Yeah,
• 39:52
  Speaker 4: I do like it. I would play Cleveland full game
• 39:55
  Speaker 4: money line in that game. That's how I would play it.
• 39:58
  Speaker 4: Met's in Atlanta. I consider this game. I like the
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: Mets in this game. Atlanta is staying at home though,
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: and they have lost four out of their last five.
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: But they've been playing bad baseball recently. Man, there's no
• 40:10
  Speaker 4: way around it. They haven't been playing well. They haven't
• 40:13
  Speaker 4: been hitting well. They don't hit particularly well at home.
• 40:16
  Speaker 4: So this Atlanta team's just not playing well. I mean,
• 40:18
  Speaker 4: maybe it could be a bounce back spot after losing
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: the Saint Louis series yesterday. But the Mets are coming
• 40:23
  Speaker 4: in with rest, although the Mets are really bad on
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: the road, so I don't love that Mets are coming
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: in off of playing Toronto. I don't want to talk
• 40:33
  Speaker 4: about that because that was another loser. We had. Freddie
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: Peralta awful in that game. What are you doing, dude, Peralta.
• 40:40
  Speaker 4: He's just continuing to fuck me over. And I used
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: to like the dude. I used to get some wins
• 40:46
  Speaker 4: playing on Peralta. Why does he hate me now? But
• 40:51
  Speaker 4: the Mets are coming in from Toronto, so I don't
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: exactly love the travel spot here. Mets didn't play yesterday though,
• 40:56
  Speaker 4: so the Mets have extra rest. So that's what we
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: have going on here. The Mets have a travel disadvantage,
• 41:02
  Speaker 4: but Atlanta has a rest disadvantage because Atlanta played yesterday,
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: so you got that now, Atlanta does have the better
• 41:11
  Speaker 4: bullpenal though they did use relief pitchers yesterday and the
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: Mets did not. Atlanta only used two. Though Atlanta's the
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: best bullpen in baseball, the Mets are ranked second. Though
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: the Mets they're competitive, They're not a bad bullpen. They're
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: probably like a top several bullpen. Atlanta's fallen way off
• 41:30
  Speaker 4: offensively though. They were like in the top several offenses
• 41:33
  Speaker 4: all year and now they're down to eighteenth. Yeah, things
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: are not going right for this Atlanta offense right now. Man,
• 41:41
  Speaker 4: I don't know what's what's the deal. The Mets are
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: dead last again though the Mets have fallen behind San
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: Diego again, so yeah, Atlanta still has the better offense
• 41:50
  Speaker 4: in this matchup. I think the Mets could have the
• 41:53
  Speaker 4: better starting pitcher, though they got Christian Scott going. Scott's
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: you know, he had a kind of a delayed start
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: to his career, I think because of some injuries. He's
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: made nineteen career starts, including last year, and then this
• 42:07
  Speaker 4: year he's been okay. He's got a three point two
• 42:10
  Speaker 4: a RA this year. Those one point three to three
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: whip does indicate that his era should be higher than that,
• 42:15
  Speaker 4: but he's not bad. He's been good on the road
• 42:18
  Speaker 4: two point one six roadie I Ray. So sometimes I
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: think these younger pitchers a lot of times, they kind
• 42:24
  Speaker 4: of do better on the road sometimes because it's like
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: there's less pressure on you, less expected of you. I
• 42:30
  Speaker 4: worry a little bit though, because Scott didn't go deep
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: into his last two starts. The Mets still actually won
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: them both though, So the Mets have won four starts
• 42:38
  Speaker 4: in a row of his and they've won six of
• 42:40
  Speaker 4: his last seven starts, So the Mets have been winning
• 42:43
  Speaker 4: with Scott on the mound. He's not allowing that many runs.
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: But one concern, like I said, is he's not going
• 42:48
  Speaker 4: that deep into these outings, so that's a little bit
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: of a concern. They're keeping him a little bit on
• 42:53
  Speaker 4: a pitch count. He's just inefficient with his pitches right now.
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: Overall numbers pretty low. Hit rate is pretty good. His
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: walk rate is definitely too high though he's got some
• 43:04
  Speaker 4: walk issues, which isn't that great, although it's gotten a
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: little bit better recently. His strikeout rate is high, so
• 43:10
  Speaker 4: that's a good sign that he's able to strike guys
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: out at the major league level. So I do think
• 43:14
  Speaker 4: Scott is pretty good. I believe Atlanta has seen him
• 43:17
  Speaker 4: before a little bit. Yeah, they have fifteen of bats
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: against him, but they have not done much against him.
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: In fact, they only have three hits against him, and
• 43:25
  Speaker 4: all of them are Michael Harris and all of them
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: are singles, So do what you want with that info.
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: But yeah, they have six batters who have seen him,
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: and only one of them has any hits off him.
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: Six strikeouts, one walk. The walk is Austin Riley, two
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: hunderd batting average allowed four to fifty ops. So in
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: a very small sample size, Scott has done well against Atlanta.
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: I don't believe they've seen him this year. You may
• 43:50
  Speaker 4: have to check me on that be I'm pretty sure
• 43:51
  Speaker 4: that Atlanta hasn't faced him this year, so they don't
• 43:55
  Speaker 4: have any recent familiarity with Scott. So, you know, I
• 43:58
  Speaker 4: talk about how these young pictures sometimes when these face
• 44:00
  Speaker 4: him a second time, they'll do better off that pitcher.
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: But I might not happen here because they haven't seen
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: him in like a year. So Scott, I think, I
• 44:10
  Speaker 4: think he sets up to pitch pretty well here, and
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: I actually prefer him over Grant Holmes Holmes has some
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: kind of similar numbers to Scott in a way. Though
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: he's pitching for the Braves. He's he's a pretty medio
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: mediocre pitcher man. He's a He's got a three point
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: nine to six y RA, one point three to six whip.
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: He's not as good at home, ohthough last year he
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: was better at home, So I don't know what to
• 44:31
  Speaker 4: make of that four point two to six Homie RA.
• 44:34
  Speaker 4: This year, he's not going deep into his outings either.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: He's failed to make it five innings and four starts
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: in a row, and it's not a good sign. Really.
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: The Braves have lost all four of those games. So
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: you have Scott on the one hand, the Mets are
• 44:47
  Speaker 4: winning all of his games. The Braves are losing all
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: of Holmes games, and that's not a good sign because
• 44:54
  Speaker 4: the last three of them Holmes faced San Francisco twice
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: and San Diego and those are not good offenses. Holmes
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: wasn't exactly bad in those outings, but that's not a
• 45:05
  Speaker 4: good sign that they're losing those games to teams that
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: don't hit. But part of it was that at Atlanta
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: got shut out in two of those games though, so
• 45:13
  Speaker 4: Atlanta just couldn't even hit the ball at all in
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: those games. But Holmes has some other issues though. Holmes
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: is walking a ton of guys. Dude. He walked eight
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: guys across the first game against San Francisco and the
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: game against San Diego in six to two thirds innings.
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: Is that bad? Yeah, Holmes does have a low hit
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: ran on the season, his walk rate is too high,
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: and his strike got raided is pretty mediocre. So yeah,
• 45:39
  Speaker 4: Holmes has issues with walks. Man, I don't really love
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: the guy, you know, nothing personal. I mean I like
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: his hair and the stash, so you know, he he
• 45:49
  Speaker 4: has the look of, you know, a pitcher that would
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: have been in the league in like the nineties, which
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: I like. But there's not a lot of not a
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: lot else to like here except he is actually good
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: against the Mets, I mean, not surprising, probably because the
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: Mets don't hit well twenty one at bats, one ninety
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: batting average, four ninety nine ohps, eight to two strike
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: out walk ratio. So I don't really want to fade that.
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: You know, it looks like a bad spot for Atlanta
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: sort of in that they're at rest disadvantage here. But
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: I don't like the travel spot. Really for the Mets,
• 46:24
  Speaker 4: I think maybe an under might be the better approach here.
• 46:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, you got two good bullpens here. The money's
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: on the over and the totals nine and a half,
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: which you know that makes me hesitate on that because
• 46:36
  Speaker 4: when the of course, when the osbakers put a total
• 46:39
  Speaker 4: up there like that, they're basically telling you they think
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: they're gonna be runs here. But this Atlanta offense has
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: been bad recently, like I said, and the Mets have
• 46:47
  Speaker 4: been bad offensively all seasons. You're getting two offenses that
• 46:51
  Speaker 4: are not playing well. You're getting two starters that I
• 46:54
  Speaker 4: think match up pretty well here, two good bullpens. It
• 46:58
  Speaker 4: seems like an under to me. Fifty eight percent of
• 47:01
  Speaker 4: tickets on the over, eighty percent of the cash on
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: the over, money backing the over. It's not gonna be
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: on my card or anything, seventy one percent of tickets,
• 47:08
  Speaker 4: eighty five percent of the cash on Atlanta. It looks
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: way too easy to play Atlanta. Again, I lean to
• 47:13
  Speaker 4: the Mets here, Yeah, I would not play Atlanta at
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: minus one twelve or whatever. It looks way too easy
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: to play Atlanta, dude. Like when you get the team
• 47:24
  Speaker 4: with the better record. I know they've not been playing
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: well recently, and the public is usually recency biased, but
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: the public are clearly going to be on Atlanta here
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: and again, it just looks way too easy to do
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: it the team with the way better record. It's like
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: a pick the winner situation. And the Mets have a
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: pitcher that nobody really knows who he is, so I
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: think Scott is a little bit under the radar. I
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: would lean towards the Mets, and I think you can
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: keep the bullpen in in that one because they do
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: at least have a bullpen rest edge there, and their
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: bullpen is fairly trustworthy. So all right, Next game San
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: Francisco in Colorado. I don't know what's going on with this,
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: because Scisco they did I think they did announce Web
• 48:03
  Speaker 4: as their starter, but now they're undecided. So I don't
• 48:06
  Speaker 4: know what San Francisco's doing here. If they're gonna push
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: Web back. Is Web injured? I don't know what the
• 48:11
  Speaker 4: deal is here. No, he's active. It looks fine. I
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: don't know. I don't know what San Francisco's doing here,
• 48:18
  Speaker 4: but Web may pitch today, so I don't know. Colorado
• 48:21
  Speaker 4: is an arrest disadvantage. Colorado played yesterday and they they
• 48:25
  Speaker 4: blasted Miami yesterday fourteen to four. So Colorado was able
• 48:30
  Speaker 4: to get the last two games of the Miami series
• 48:33
  Speaker 4: to even the series yesterday. You know, Colorado, they're hitting
• 48:38
  Speaker 4: well right now at the very least, but they're at
• 48:40
  Speaker 4: arrest disadvantage. San Francisco didn't play yesterday, and they're coming
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: in from Arizona, so it's a familiar travel spot from them.
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: Not a big deal there going from Arizona to Colorado,
• 48:52
  Speaker 4: although Colorado, you know, it's a hit or friendly ballpark.
• 48:55
  Speaker 4: But that's another reason why San Francisco they're definitely gonna
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: use Web at some point in this series. I'll handicap
• 49:01
  Speaker 4: it is if Web is pitching, though, so I think
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: it is likely that he will. So San Francisco has
• 49:06
  Speaker 4: a rest advantage here. They do have the better bullpen
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: as well. Colorado used three relief pitchers yesterday. Colorado not
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: a good bullpen. They're ranked twenty seventh. They're one of
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: the three bullpens with a five plus RA not good.
• 49:20
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's ranked twenty fifth, but they're in the mid fours.
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: Eer Wise, I don't think they're that bad. I think
• 49:26
  Speaker 4: they're like a mid tier bullpen. So yeah, San Francisco
• 49:30
  Speaker 4: more rested, and they definitely have the better bullpen, so
• 49:32
  Speaker 4: they have a bullpen edge Colorado. They've been hitting well.
• 49:36
  Speaker 4: They're at number five offensively right now. San Francisco's tied
• 49:40
  Speaker 4: in twelve with the Astros. I don't agree with that. Again,
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: San Francisco's numbers are skewed by a couple of major outliers.
• 49:47
  Speaker 4: They're not a good hitting team. I think they're gonna
• 49:50
  Speaker 4: drop back down into the bottom third, so I don't
• 49:52
  Speaker 4: think their offense is that good. I do like Logan
• 49:55
  Speaker 4: Webb though, as you guys know, web is also completely rebound,
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: but after he was bad at the beginning of the season.
• 50:02
  Speaker 4: But he's a really consistent pitcher and we know who
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: he is, and I'm assuming he's still pitching today, but
• 50:07
  Speaker 4: he might not. But he's been good for you know,
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: a month or so now. He's got a three point
• 50:12
  Speaker 4: h nine YRRA in the season, one point six whip,
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: so he's completely turned to season around. Those are good numbers,
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: even better than his numbers usually he's usually pretty good,
• 50:21
  Speaker 4: but this is even better than that. So he's been
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: excellent recently, and we did win backing him in a
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: game against Milwaukee not that long ago. He's been good
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: on the road as well. Two point eight to four
• 50:32
  Speaker 4: Roady Ray, although he is usually not quite as good
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: on the road. But the good thing for him in
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: course field is that he's a ground ball pitcher. He
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: does not allow a lot of fly balls. He's not
• 50:41
  Speaker 4: allowed a lot of home runs, so he he does
• 50:45
  Speaker 4: have a style that works well in course field, uh
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: to keep the runs limited. He's got a low hit
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: rate on the season. His strikeout rate is low, but
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: he's not a strikeout pitcher. He has a low walk
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: rate too. Usually his walk rate's a little bit higher
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: than it is right now. But he's been excellent over
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: the past month. Like the month of June, he was awesome.
• 51:03
  Speaker 4: He had a point seven to one ERA, twenty nine
• 51:06
  Speaker 4: to four strike up walk ratio, nineteen hits allowed in
• 51:09
  Speaker 4: thirty eight innings and only allowed one home run, and
• 51:11
  Speaker 4: he went seven or more innings in every start. And
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: he faced Milwaukee, Washington, the Cubs, Miami in Atlanta. So
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: the worst offense that he faced there, I would say,
• 51:21
  Speaker 4: is Miami over that stretch, and most of the offenses
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: are like top ten offenses there or close to it.
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, he's clearly informed right now. However,
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: for whatever reason, he actually isn't good against Colorado. They
• 51:37
  Speaker 4: have ninety nine at bats against him three twenty three
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: average seven to sixty six OPS, so the OPS isn't
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: that high, but they do hit him for average twenty
• 51:46
  Speaker 4: one to six strike out walk ratio though, is pretty
• 51:48
  Speaker 4: good for WEB. But yeah, I mean I worry a
• 51:51
  Speaker 4: little bit about that matchup. His numbers against the Rockies
• 51:54
  Speaker 4: hitters just aren't that good. He's the better pitcher in
• 51:57
  Speaker 4: this matchup though, assuming he is pitching, he'll be going
• 52:00
  Speaker 4: up against Ryan Feltner. Although Feldner is actually one of
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: the better Rocky starters, you know, grading on the Rockies curve,
• 52:08
  Speaker 4: he might be their best starter. He's got a four
• 52:11
  Speaker 4: point four to two ERA one point two to five
• 52:13
  Speaker 4: whip that's actually that's elite for a Rockies pitcher. He's
• 52:18
  Speaker 4: been a little bit better at home surprisingly four point
• 52:21
  Speaker 4: three to three home e RA. Feldner is not really
• 52:24
  Speaker 4: an extreme fly ball pitcher, so that does help him
• 52:27
  Speaker 4: out a little bit. He hasn't allowed that many home runs,
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: but you know, he's got some issues still. I mean,
• 52:32
  Speaker 4: he's not a strike up pitcher. He still walks too
• 52:34
  Speaker 4: many guys. He hasn't allowed that many hits, but his
• 52:37
  Speaker 4: walk rate is way too high. And again, you're gonna
• 52:40
  Speaker 4: get in trouble if you walk guys anywhere, but especially
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: in course field. And his strikeout rate is low. So
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I still don't think Feltner is really
• 52:49
  Speaker 4: that good, but he's fasically. San Francisco they're not a
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: good offense, and he pitched here in cors Field against
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: them back on May thirtieth, and he was really good
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: in that outing. He went six shutout in four hits,
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: allowed no walks, although I only had two strikeouts, but
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: he stifled San Francisco there. San Francisco is not a
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: good offense, as I pointed out. However, you know, San
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: Francisco they did explode for some runs somewhat recently, and
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: this is a ballpark where they could potentially do that.
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: San Francisco, though they have not had success against Feltner,
• 53:23
  Speaker 4: they have forty four at bats against some one fifty
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: nine average, allowed four to seventeen ops, ten to three
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: strikeout walk ratio, only two extra base hits that are
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: doubles from Ariahs and Gilbert. Yeah, so I like Web
• 53:39
  Speaker 4: in this one. But although they pulled them from the
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: aboard here, the line was gonna be in the minus
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: one fifties. It might change if Web is not pitching,
• 53:46
  Speaker 4: if San Francisco downgrades their starter. Basically, if it's anybody
• 53:50
  Speaker 4: except for Web, it's gonna be a downgrade, So that
• 53:53
  Speaker 4: number might drop a little bit. You might actually get
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: some value in Colorado here, man, although the money looks
• 53:59
  Speaker 4: like it's a on San fran fifty percent ticket sixty
• 54:02
  Speaker 4: six percent of the cash on the Giants, I think
• 54:05
  Speaker 4: you might be able to try like Colorado first five
• 54:09
  Speaker 4: on the run line or something here. You know, I
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: don't necessarily I don't really want to fade Web though,
• 54:16
  Speaker 4: but Feldner, I mean, if it's especially if dude, if
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: San Francisco announces somebody other than Web, you're still gonna
• 54:23
  Speaker 4: get Colorado as an underdog here, and you'll get Feltner,
• 54:26
  Speaker 4: who actually does match up pretty well here, and as
• 54:29
  Speaker 4: okay numbers, you're gonna get him against the San Francisco
• 54:33
  Speaker 4: pitcher that probably isn't that good. So you might be
• 54:36
  Speaker 4: able to take a shot with Colorado first five on
• 54:39
  Speaker 4: the run line here, but they are to rest disadvantage.
• 54:41
  Speaker 4: To keep that in mind, I don't love that. And
• 54:44
  Speaker 4: obviously you have to avoid their bullpen, I mean their bullpen. Yeah,
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: it's bad, all right, Apple TV. Tampa Bay and Houston
• 54:54
  Speaker 4: kind of into your interesting matchup here, and then I'll
• 54:56
  Speaker 4: take a break after I do this one right on time. Baby.
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: Houston was off yesterday, so Houston has a rest edge
• 55:03
  Speaker 4: and a travel edge, so those are negatives for Tampa
• 55:05
  Speaker 4: Bay here, man. Tampa Bay is having to travel in
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: from Kansas City, I believe, or wait, is Tampa Bay
• 55:13
  Speaker 4: coming in from home? I'll look at a minute, I
• 55:15
  Speaker 4: forget they might be coming in from home. Actually Houston
• 55:18
  Speaker 4: is staying at home though, and didn't play yesterday, so
• 55:21
  Speaker 4: Houston has some advantages here, man, And they just lost
• 55:23
  Speaker 4: to Minnesota at home, so Houston should be in a
• 55:26
  Speaker 4: bounced back spot. Tampa Bay is probably feeling pretty good
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: about themselves right now because they just, dude, they've won
• 55:33
  Speaker 4: eight games in a row. So it's like not something
• 55:36
  Speaker 4: you really want to fade here. Necessarily, if you want
• 55:38
  Speaker 4: to fade them, you're gonna jump in front of a train.
• 55:40
  Speaker 4: But maybe this is when you do it, because I mean,
• 55:43
  Speaker 4: look who they beat over that stretch, right, They beat
• 55:46
  Speaker 4: Kansas City in five of those eight games, five of
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: them were against Kansas City. So hold on a minute,
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: Kansas City, Yeah, they suck, sorry, Zach. And Arizona was
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: the other opponent in there. Ah, that doesn't impress me
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: that much. The Tampa Bay beat Arizona, So Tampa Bay
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: and they might be feeling pretty good right now because
• 56:07
  Speaker 4: the Yankees at the same time lost seven games in
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: a row. So Tampa Bay now has a four game
• 56:12
  Speaker 4: lead in the Al East. They're not as good as
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: the Yankees. Sorry, I hate it. I fucking hate it.
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: I fucking hate the Yankees. But the Yankees are clearly
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: the best team in the American League. The oddsmakers, the
• 56:25
  Speaker 4: way they line games will tell you that Tampa Bay
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: is obviously not bad, but they've overperformed like they will
• 56:32
  Speaker 4: be a playoff team almost certainly. The American League sucks,
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: But Tampa Bay is not this good, is what I'm saying. Now.
• 56:39
  Speaker 4: They played yesterday, They beat Kansas City yesterday to finish
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: that sweep off. But they're an arrest disadvantage down. Yes,
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: actually I was right that they were traveling from Kansas City,
• 56:51
  Speaker 4: so that's actually a little bit better. Probably, well, I
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: don't know. I mean, if Tampa Bay was starting a
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: road trip, they might be a little bit more focus.
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: But they're coming in from Kansas City here, and they're
• 57:01
  Speaker 4: having to step up in class to play Houston because
• 57:03
  Speaker 4: Houston is better than Kansas City. Houston is rested. Like
• 57:07
  Speaker 4: I said, Tampa Bay, let us men a little bit.
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: I guess Tampa Bay used three relief pitchers yesterday. And
• 57:14
  Speaker 4: I don't love their bullpen, even though they ranked ninth,
• 57:16
  Speaker 4: which makes them seem pretty good. I think they're like
• 57:19
  Speaker 4: a mediocre bullpen though they have a pretty mediocre era. Houston,
• 57:24
  Speaker 4: believe it or not, has a better bullpen era now.
• 57:27
  Speaker 4: After Houston was miserable from the out of the bullpen
• 57:30
  Speaker 4: to start the season, Houston is all the way up
• 57:32
  Speaker 4: to sixteenth. Yeah, they're definitely officially a mediocre bullpen now
• 57:37
  Speaker 4: and Houston's more rested, so that should help Houston a
• 57:40
  Speaker 4: little bit here. Nick Martinez is going for Tampa Bay.
• 57:44
  Speaker 4: He's having a good season, although he is one of
• 57:47
  Speaker 4: those guys that pitches to contact, so the advanced analytics
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: guys don't really like guys like that, and he's up
• 57:53
  Speaker 4: there in age, but Tampa Bay they got good pitching
• 57:56
  Speaker 4: coaching men. I mean, Martinez has been okay throughout his
• 58:00
  Speaker 4: but he's definitely found something even better this year because
• 58:03
  Speaker 4: he's got a two point six to six ERA, one
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: point one five whip. I mean, you can't really complain
• 58:08
  Speaker 4: about any of that. Even though he pitches to contact,
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: it's not resulting in guys getting on base. He's been
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: really good on the road two point one to eight
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: road y RA. So I don't really want to jump
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: in front of Martinez here necessarily. He wasn't as good
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: over the past month though. He had a five point
• 58:25
  Speaker 4: one four ERA in June, but he faced you know
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers in there, Washington. Uh, those are a couple
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: of his lesser starts there. Although he also wasn't good
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: against Detroit, which is less of a good sign. So yeah,
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: he's a little bit out of form right now. But overall,
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: I mean, his hit rate has been okay. His walk
• 58:44
  Speaker 4: rate is really low. He doesn't walk guys, but he does,
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: Like I said, he pitches to contact, so a lot
• 58:49
  Speaker 4: of those pitches are going over the plate, and he
• 58:52
  Speaker 4: has a low strikeout rate and a high fly ball rate.
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, that does look a little bit dangerous
• 58:58
  Speaker 4: profile wise, but it hasn't really translated into allowing a
• 59:01
  Speaker 4: lot of home runs though, so he's still been pretty good.
• 59:04
  Speaker 4: But yeah, he does not fool guys. He doesn't strike
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: guys out. Martinez against Houston, I believe Houston has some good,
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: pretty good number They have okay numbers against him. It's
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: all pretty average, really, seventy three at bats, Houston has
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: a two sixty average, seven to fourteen ops against him,
• 59:22
  Speaker 4: seven to three strike out walk ratio, So those numbers
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: don't really favor one side or the other here. They're
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: like right in line with the averages. They're actually slightly
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: i would say, tilted towards Martinez a little bit there.
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: So he bitch is okay against Houston. Spencer Arraghetty is
• 59:39
  Speaker 4: pictured for Houston. Raghetty is definitely the picture with the
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: higher ceiling here.
• 59:44
  Speaker 5: Man.
• 59:44
  Speaker 4: He's the way younger pitcher, and he's the pitcher that
• 59:47
  Speaker 4: strikes way more guys out, which you could probably tell
• 59:51
  Speaker 4: just by looking at him. But Raghetty has really been
• 59:54
  Speaker 4: struggling over the past few starts. He's got a four
• 59:57
  Speaker 4: ERA now and at one point two to nine whip
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: is a bit concerning. His walk rate has definitely been
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: concerning all season. He does pitch pretty well at home
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 4: still though three point five to six home he ra
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: But you look at what he's done recently. Most of
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 4: it's been on the road. But his last two starts,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 4: one start at home, one on the road against Cleveland
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 4: and then Detroit. That's not good because those are not
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 4: really good offenses. He gave up fourteen runs and nine
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: innings there. That's not good, dude, on eleven hits. But
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: he did also walk five guys in that one start
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: against Detroit, so his walk issues seem to be returning
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: a little bit here. However, his strikeout rate has still
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: been really good over that whole stretch. The last four starts,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: seven or more strike cuts in all of them. So
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: I don't know what we do with a guy like
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: this man. He's wild, you know, he might walk a
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: ton of guys. He allowed six home runs over those
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: last two starts, which seems a little bit fluky, though
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: he's still striking guys out. You know, he is a
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: fly ball pitcher, but the home runs haven't really been
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 4: that much of an issue for him. In fact, He's
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: only allowed nine on the seasons. The fact that he
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: allowed six in the last two starts does seem like
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 4: an outlier. He does have a low hit rate. His
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 4: walk rate is still too high though that's that's his
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 4: one actual issue really is the walks, and he does
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 4: have a pretty high strikeout rate. So what do we
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 4: do with him? Because he was, you know, chugging along
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 4: having issues with walks, but he was allowing very few
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 4: runs and then all of a sudden he had a
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: really bad month in June with a ninety RA. It's
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 4: hard to back him right now, man, because it does
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 4: look like he's not in good form right now. His
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: thatmbers against Tampa Bay, they really haven't seen him though
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 4: Tampa Bay only has three guys who have seen him.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: Diaz has the only hit, a single. They're one for
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: five combined off him, two strikeouts, two walks, two hundred
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 4: batting average six twenty nine ohps. One of those walks
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 4: is also DS. I don't know what we do with
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: this game, man. I don't Tampa Bay being favored on
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: the road though, I don't about that. I mean Houston
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: they have the rest advantage, They have a travel advantage
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: here and you could argue Houston as the better starter here.
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: The money is heavily on Houston here. Again, it looks
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: too easy to play Tampa Bay.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Dude.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 4: It's basically like a Pickham price here. You got seventy
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: three percent of the tickets on Tampa Bay. The public
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: is gonna take Tampa Bay because they've been on fire,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: they won eight games in a row, they have a
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 4: really good record. Yeah, there might be some value they'll
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 4: look at towards Houston here. Obviously, the oddsmakers are not
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 4: gonna just hand you money, you know what I mean.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: So they're telling you they feel like this is a
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 4: pretty even game here. Overall, seventy nine percent of the
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: cash on Houston. You know, if you play Houston, maybe
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 4: you do go full game with it two just to
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: take advantage of the rest edged. Does that mean you
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: actually back Houston's bullpen here? I think maybe you do.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 4: I think Houston's bullpen might actually have a little bit
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 4: of an edge here because I think the bullpens are
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 4: close talent level wise, and Tampa Bay is less rested
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: in that department. The money is also coming in on
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 4: the over the totals at eight and a half. I
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: could see that, you know, I mean, I still don't
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 4: love either bullpen and you know, both starters. There are
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 4: a lot of question marks with those starters, so I
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 4: could see the over coming in here. I mean, the
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 4: totals not really indicative of much. It being at eight
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 4: and a half. It is slightly skewed to the over though,
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 4: so it is on the higher side, a little bit
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 4: more towards nine. The oddsmakers, I guess, are kind of
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: leaning a little bit more towards this being a higher
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 4: scoring game, I guess, but the totals kind of right
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 4: there in no man's land. I'll be back in a second.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 4: I have a play in the next game, and it
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 4: is a game that involves my Boston Red Sox, so
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: I don't even want to talk about them. I've got
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: to play. I think there's a way to attack that game.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back and yeah, then I'm gonna talk
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: about w I have a WNBA play, But it's gonna
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: be a game where I'm gonna recommend waiting just for
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 4: information to come out. But I'm gonna say we're gonna
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: play on the play that I'm gonna make. We're gonna
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 4: play it either way. It's just a matter of we
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 4: might get a better number on it if we wait.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 4: That's the only thing. And I think if we I
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 4: think the chances are if we wait and and the
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: info comes out, it's gonna it's gonna be a player.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 4: If that player winds up not playing, you probably know
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: what I'm talking about if you follow my w n
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 4: B A handicapping. Right now, it looks like she's not
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 4: gonna play. And if that is the case, then I
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 4: think the number won't move that much. So I don't
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 4: think we're gonna lose that much value on it, and
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 4: I don't think it's gonna go through a key number. However,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: on the other hand, if if she is gonna play,
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: then we're fading that team obviously, So we're gonna get
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: a better number if we If we wait and she
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 4: does play, you know what I mean. So that's why
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna say Wight on the w n B A game.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 4: But I'll be right, I don't want to do I'm
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 4: gonna have to say it again, so I don't wanna,
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 4: you know, make this show even longer. But hold on,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 4: I'll be right back. Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself.
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 4: We're on OWN seven run over the last two days
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 4: after tonight, it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 4: how I'm gonna start off this show. Horrible Sunday one
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 4: and five. I don't even know what to tell you
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 4: about that. I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 4: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 4: slump continuing. Two straight losses, not a good day at all.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 4: Own four, that's have not had a good season.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: Man with wookends the slump that I'm on, and the
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: slump continues.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 4: I've reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 4: my Bruins hat.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: March e is that what it is? I don't even
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 4: know it's it's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know what day it is anymore. But I
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 4: don't even know what data is anymore. Men, back with
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: you after the worst day that I could possibly have,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: Back with you as I always am.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: Until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 5: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 5: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 5: doing this.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 4: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 4: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 4: fucking kill me, please.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 5: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 4: All right, Red Sox and Anaheim, We're gonna do what
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 4: I should have done yesterday. First five under four in
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 4: this one is is my approach here in this game.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox, they did have a day off yesterday,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 4: but I talk about how days off I think they
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 4: can kind of cool the hitting. Obviously it'll rest the bullpens.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 4: But obviously I don't want anything to do with Anaheim's
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 4: bullpen as far as an under, so I'm gonna avoid
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 4: the bullpens here. Red Sox have a day off. They're
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 4: traveling cross country though, and you know I talk about
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 4: how East Coast team going west for a late night game,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 4: it can affect their hitting, It affects their biological clock.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 4: Now with the Red Sox, Wilson Contrera has got suspended
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 4: for seven games for really not doing that much in
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 4: that incident with Washington with Kde Cavali and whatever. Kavale, dude,
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's kind of an idiot, like you know,
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 4: I'm I think he's a decent pitcher, but he's still young.
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 4: You know, he's only pitched in the majors for a
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 4: couple of years, and he's like ten years younger than Contreras,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: and he's yelling sit down, boy when he strikes Contreras
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 4: on I hate you know, everybody's saying it's racism whatever.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: I don't give a shit about any of that. I
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 4: think that's bullshit. It's it's not racism. But what I
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 4: think is stupid about it is that Cavali has not
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 4: earned his stripes, you know what I mean. It's an
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 4: unres and rule and base in any sport really, where
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 4: if you're a young guy like that and you haven't
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 4: really done anything in the majors yet and you yell
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 4: like that at a at a dude that's in his
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 4: thirties and he's been in the league for a decade
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 4: and he's he has earned his stripes, You're not supposed
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 4: to do that, man. So that's why I could see
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 4: why Contreras took exception of that, and the league just
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 4: wants to make make a huge issue out of this
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 4: because Contrera's has been really fired up over the last
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 4: few games, you know, including in that Yankees game the
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 4: bench clearing brawl that wasn't even a brawl. It's also stupid, dude.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 4: I think he might be appealing those, that's the things.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 4: So I don't know if Contrera's is gonna be in
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox lineum or not, but he's been their
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 4: best hitter, even though he was one of their offseason pickups.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 4: So if he's out of the lineup, obviously that helps
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 4: this under but I think even if he is in
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 4: the lineup he might have some mental distractions going on here.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 4: You know, I don't care either way, although if he's out,
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 4: you know, it'll it'll help display if he's out, but
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 4: I think we could still get there even if he
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 4: is gonna play. But yeah, just somebody keep in mind
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 4: that the Red Sox offense might be even worse off
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 4: right now without Catrera's here. Red Sox offense has not
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 4: been good anyway, you know, just going over what we
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 4: have here, the Red Sox bullpen is still pretty good
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 4: at number six, though they have had some issues recently,
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 4: but they're still pretty good and at least they're now
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 4: rested again. Anaheim's bullpen stinks. They're twenty fourth. We're gonna
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 4: avoid their bullpen here. Offensively, Anaheim hasn't been that good.
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 4: I mean their twentieth they hit a lot of home runs,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 4: but they really don't hit for a good average. So
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 4: I think we could keep Anaheim's offense in check. And
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox offense does not scare me. They're tied
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 4: in twenty fifth with Arizona and Seattle, so even though
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 4: I think Seattle's a little bit better than that, I
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 4: even think the Red Sox are a little bit better.
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 4: I think all three of those teams, Arizona two are
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 4: probably all better than that. But yeah, Red Sox have
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 4: been struggling day off plus time change. I think the
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 4: Red Sox offense is gonna struggle here. I also I
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 4: think the pitcher they're going up against is really good.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 4: Anaheim did play yesterday. They're returning home from a road trip,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 4: by the way, but it was a quick road trip
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 4: to Seattle. They got swept on the road trip, and
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 4: it's not the typical road trip return because it is
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 4: still only returning from a one game series where they're
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 4: still coming back from Seattle. So you know, the road
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 4: trips can kind of affect the hitting as well. You
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 4: can still be a little bit distracted, have to get
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 4: back to home life. Maybe they won't pay that much
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 4: attention to a last place Red Sox team, you know whatever.
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 4: Anaheim used two relief pitchers yesterday, but they still they
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 4: don't have a good bullpen. But we're looking at the
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 4: starters here, man, that's really what we're focused on. We're
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 4: gonna back Jake Bennett for the Red Sox. He's pitching well,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 4: he's one of this. You know, the Red Sox have
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 4: this arsenal of talented, young left handed pitchers, some of
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 4: them big dudes, and he's one of them, even though
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 4: he doesn't really throw that hard. But he looked good
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 4: in his last start again the Yankees. Now one concern
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 4: is maybe he's in a letdown spot like Peyton Totley
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 4: was really bad the other day. He was coming off
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 4: a very fiery performance against the Yankees. Totally was in
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 4: a letdown spot after that. Possibly I still didn't think
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 4: he was gonna do bad. But I think this is
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 4: a better set up here, man, Bennett. I mean, you
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 4: get to pitch on the road. The pressure is a
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 4: little bit off. He is coming off a good game
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 4: against the Yankees with Bennett's been pitching well as well.
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 4: Three point two seventy RRA, one point six whip. He's
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 4: got a same road and home e RA, so he
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 4: has insignificant splits completely. He's given up four or fewer
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 4: in runs and all of his starts so far, which
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 4: is a decent sign pitching well in some harsh environments.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 4: He pitched well in Colorado prior to that Yankees start,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 4: so he's been able to pitch well in some pretty
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 4: difficult road environments, let's say, or at least that one.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 4: He wasn't as good on the road against Tamba Bay,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 4: but still not bad here. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 4: low walk rate. He does not really give out free passes.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 4: His strikeout rate is low, which is a little bit concerning.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 4: He does jam a lot of guys and get them
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 4: to hit into a lot of ground balls, which helps
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 4: quite a bit this month though. If you look at
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 4: his June numbers, twenty one to three strike out walk ratio,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 4: seventeen hits around in twenty two and two thirds innings.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 4: That's pretty good. And the other thing that I like
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 4: about this under is the Red Sox have not scored
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 4: behind him. The Red Sox have scored in his games.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 4: They've scored one, four, five, zero, two and four. That's
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 4: what they've scored in his starts here, if I got
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 4: that right. So they don't really back him with runs,
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 4: Like I said, they don't really score that much. So
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 4: I think backing him to do well, but doing it
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 4: by way of the under makes a lot of sense
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 4: to me here. So that's what we're gonna do. And
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 4: of course he's never been seen before by Anaheims, so
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 4: he does have the unfamiliarity edge here, which I think
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 4: usually does help pitcher a little bit. A young talented pitcher,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 4: usually the offense is going to struggle to figure him
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 4: out a little bit. So I like Bennett to do
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 4: pretty well here, but I think the better pitcher is
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 4: on the other side. Reed Debt Meers. You know, I've
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 4: talked about him on the show. He's good, dude. He's
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 4: having his best season easily this year. He seems to
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 4: be really kind of yeah, like his career is taking
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 4: off this season. Three point eight to eight ERA one
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 4: point oh six whip really good. He's not as good
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 4: at home, I know, four point three to five home
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 4: E Ray but his home opponent batting average is one
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 4: ninety nine though, so I think I think that Ray
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 4: is a little bit misleading, dude, because you look at
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 4: his numbers here, like the hit rates still low, the
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 4: batting average is really low, so I don't even know
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 4: what the deal is. Like the walk rate's not even
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 4: that high either, so it looks to me like he's
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 4: just gotten unlucky at home. Like I guess it's the
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 4: home run rate being slightly higher, I guess is what's
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 4: doing it. So, yeah, he's not actually bad at home. Uh, Denver's.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 4: He's had a really good season. Man. He's pitched well
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 4: in almost all of his recent starts yet, like really
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 4: really good stuff two or fewer earned runs, and all
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 4: but one start in June and that one start where
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 4: he didn't do that was on the road at the A's,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 4: so that's obviously pitcher unfriendly environment. One concern is he
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 4: did have seven walks over his last two starts, but
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 4: that was both against the A's, so I don't really
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 4: see that happening in this game, and it hasn't been
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 4: a long term issue. He's got a low hit rate,
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is not too bad on the season,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 4: his strike gout rate is high. He's good. I think
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 4: he's one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Like this,
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 4: dude is solid and doesn't get the accolades because he's
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 4: on a bad team. His era. I think it actually
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 4: should be lower than it is now. The Red Sox
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 4: have faced him before, they have done mediocre against him,
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 4: kind of two sixty nine average, where the ops is
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 4: pretty low, six sixty eight, and he has struck out them,
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 4: struck out eleven of them with two walks at twenty
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 4: six innings. So eleven strikeout twenty six at bats. Excuse me,
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 4: eleven strikeouts. That's a really high strikeout rate. So yeah,
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 4: I think Dettmers does match up fine here, and I
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 4: believe those numbers were all in the past. I don't
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 4: think he's faced the Red Sox this year. I don't
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 4: even think these teams have played against each other yet
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 4: this year, so I'm not total I'm not totally sure
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 4: about that, but yeah, so Detmars is not faced Boston
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 4: this year, so the Red Sox have not seen Debtmers
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 4: at his best, which is this year. So yeah, I
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 4: think the under makes a lot of sense here early
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 4: in the game and the money seems like it agrees
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 4: with this too. The total in the full game seven
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: and a half, and this is a somewhat hitter friendly ballpark,
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 4: so the odds makers are really telling you something. With
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 4: a pretty low total of seven and a half, we're
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 4: focusing on the first five, and I found a good
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 4: number on it. This was at I forget which book.
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 4: I think it was at the Roman Emperor book. It
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 4: might have been at the m book with the lie
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 4: and it was one of those two seventy six percent
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 4: of the tickets on the over fifty five percent of
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over. So the money is fading
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 4: the over here. So dude, I actually do feel good
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 4: about these two plays with the market read looking like
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 4: it's in line with me right now. It might not
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 4: be the case later in the day and whatever, but
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 4: it's looking good to me right now. So I like
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 4: what I'm doing with these two plays. Dude, Yeah, I
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 4: feel pretty good. So yeah, that's the play there, first
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 4: five under Red Sox Angels, all right, Miami at the A's.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 4: Of course, we have to take into account this is
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 4: a very hitter friendly ballpark. The A's they basically play
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 4: in like a bandbox. Triple A Stadium, very very hitter friendly.
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 4: Miami just came off of Colorado series, and Miami's unrested
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 4: because they played yesterday, But the fact that they just
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 4: playing in Colorado at least means they know they're familiar
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 4: with playing in a very hitter friendly environment. At the
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 4: very least. They split that series with Colorado and three
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 4: of the four games went over the totals, so keep
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 4: that in mind. Even though Miami is a very good bullpen,
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 4: it didn't even matter in that Colorado series, So keep
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 4: that in mind. The A's could be in a little
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 4: bit of a letdown, maybe because they did beat the
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 4: Dodgers in their last game, and I believe they were
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 4: off yesterday and staying at home though, so the A's
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 4: have a rest advantage and a travel edge because they're
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 4: staying at home. The A's did break a four game
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 4: losing streak though, so they might have a little bit
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: of momentum from that there, and maybe that momentum will
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 4: carry Miami. Let me look at their bullpen usage. They
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 4: used three relief pitchers yesterday. They're still a better bullpen
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 4: than the A's, though Miami is still ranked third in
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 4: bullpen I don't think they're quite that good, but they're
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 4: pretty good. The A's bullpen is significantly worse at twenty
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 4: third with an ERA of almost five, so yes, you
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 4: get a bullpen advantage still with Miami here, even with
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 4: the rest situation. I don't think Miami used any of
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 4: their good relievers really in a blowout game yesterday. Either.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 4: The A's are better offensively, obviously they're eighth, but Miami
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 4: hasn't been that bad at fourteenth. This hm this pitching matchup, though,
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 4: Tyler Phillips, this is a very hard pitching matchup to
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 4: figure out. Tyler Phillips is pitching for the Marlins. He
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 4: was going in what I considered to be bullpen games
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 4: for a while, but I don't even consider them to
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 4: be that anymore. Like he's a converted reliever, but he's
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 4: just out there making full starts now, so I don't
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 4: even really consider this to be a bullpen game at
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 4: this point. He's got a three point oh two ERA.
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 4: His whip is a bit high though, at one point
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 4: three one, so he's not really as good as his
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 4: RA makes it look. He's really been bad on the
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 4: road though. Five point six seven. Rodeo ram So he
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 4: pitches better in that home stadium, which is more pitcher friendly.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 4: I don't know if we could trust him on the
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 4: road man. His fly ball rate's not that high though,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 4: and he's got a low hit rate. His walk rate
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 4: is way too high though, so that's his one issue.
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 4: His walks are ridiculous and his strike out rates also
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 4: not really that high, so his strike out walk ratio
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 4: is very ugly. So I don't trust Phillips, although he
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 4: at least doesn't allow that many home runs really, but
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 4: still there's not a lot to really love here, to
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 4: be honest, like he does still have a really high
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 4: hit rate or excuse a really high walk rate excuse
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 4: me recently and then in his one star where he
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 4: didn't walk anybody last time out and went seven and
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 4: a third innings against Saint Louis and was fairly good
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 4: and a lot only two arned runs. Red flag was
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 4: that he only walked one guy, so that's not good.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 4: And his strike got rate, like I said, is pretty low,
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 4: so I don't think Phillips is as good as Zra Mix.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 4: And look, Miami's lost most of his appearances, so that's
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 4: not a good sign either, So I don't love Phillips here.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 4: It's a very difficult environment for him. The A's do
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 4: only have three guys or four guys who have faced
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 4: him eight at bats. The only hit is a double
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 4: from Langaliers one strike, got one walk, which is from
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 4: McNeil one twenty five average four to seventy two ops.
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 4: So even though his matchup members look okay here and
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 4: he is unfamiliar to them, I don't really expect that
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 4: much out of Phillips here. Jack Perkins is pitching for
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 4: the a I think Perkins is actually a little bit
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 4: better than his era looks. His ERA is six. He's
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 4: still a really young guy. I think he has some talent,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 4: he has some strikeout ability, but it's not a good
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 4: pitching environment man pitching in the A stadium, so that's
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 4: a problem for him. But his whip is one point
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 4: three to three, which I know isn't good, but it
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 4: does indicate his ERA should be lower than it is.
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 4: He's had some issues at home though, six point two
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 4: to three home era doesn't look like he pitches too
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 4: well in this environment. Pitched pretty well last time out
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 4: on the road against Anaheim, but that was not in
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 4: this stadium. You know, he's still been struggling. He's not
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 4: going that deep into these outings yet. I think they
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 4: are limiting his pitch count, which makes sense because they
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 4: don't want to like overwork a young guy like this,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 4: although he is in his mid twenties at this point.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 4: He has a high strikeout rate, so that's good. So
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 4: he does strike a lot of guys out, But some
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 4: of these other numbers, man, I don't know, well, actually
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 4: I don't know. His hit rate is right at one
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 4: per inning, which I guess isn't that bad, and then
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 4: his walk rate is actually not really that high, So
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 4: his overall numbers actually do suggest that he's not that bad.
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 4: The home runs might be a bit of an issue, though.
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 4: His fly ball rate is really pretty extreme, so that's
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 4: not good pitching in this A's stadium. You know, if
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 4: you have a high fly ball rate, that that's not
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 4: gonna fly, you know what I mean, Or it is
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 4: going to fly in a bad way in the stadium,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 4: So that's not a good thing. I believe Miami hasn't
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 4: seen him before. Yeah, so Perkins does have an unfamiliarity
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 4: edge at least, you know, I think he does have
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 4: some talent. He's got strikeout ability, but his fly ball
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 4: rate is just not good for this stadium. So I
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 4: think there are more indicators towards an over in this
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 4: game than anything else. I don't really want to do it,
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 4: but the money does seem to agree. The total is
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 4: at ten and a half, so the oddsmakers are kind
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 4: of telling you they think it's gonna be a high
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 4: scoring game. But of course it's an A's stadium game,
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 4: so they do kind of have to throw up a
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 4: total that high. Fifty five tickets eighty seven percent of
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 4: the cash on the over money coming in on the
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 4: over here. Miami played mostly really high scoring games in
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 4: that series in Colorado as well, so this is not Miami,
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 4: you know. Uh So Miami has been locked into some
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 4: high scoring affairs there, so yeah, I think it could
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 4: definitely be high scoring, all right. Milwaukee and Arizona is
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 4: also on Apple TV. Probably Tampa Houston's gonna get more
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 4: eyes on it, but I don't know, because Milwaukee's good,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 4: but Arizona has not been very good. Arizona is staying
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 4: at home here. They do have a day off as well,
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 4: so Arizona is another team It has rest and a
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 4: travel edge, So so a couple of extra advantages. The
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 4: A's have that advantage too, by the way, and I
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 4: guess I forgot to mention the side in that AA's game.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 4: The Aas are a favorite at around minus one thirty,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 4: and the money's back in Miami fifty percent of tickets
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 4: seventy two percent of the cash on Miami. I mean
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 4: Miami is the better pitching. I guess I would say
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 4: I don't love Phillips, though I think you could argue
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 4: that Perkins is better just because he has a higher
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 4: ceiling than phil So I don't know. I mean, Miami's
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 4: bullpen is definitely better, but I don't know about that.
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 4: I don't think I like Miami in that game, to
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 4: be honest. I think maybe A's first five in that
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 4: game makes some sense there, as with a rest edge
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 4: and a travel edge there. But yes, Arizona has a
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 4: rest edge and a travel edge here as well. Milwaukee's
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 4: starting a road trip after a loss though, so Milwaukee,
• 1:23:22
  Speaker 4: it's not exactly a bad spot starting a road trip,
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 4: but again they're at a rest disadvantage Arizona staying at home.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee did use a lot of their relief pitchers recently.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 4: They use four guys yesterday but they did not use
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 4: their better relievers. Really, so Milwaukee's top end relievers are
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 4: available here. Milwaukee's thirteenth in bullpen, Arizona seventh. But Milwaukee's
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 4: ERA is like half a run better more than that.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 4: So Milwaukee is the better bullpen, even though I think
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 4: whip is a better indicator. But even given that, you know,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 4: I've been saying it like all season, I still think
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 4: Milwaukee's bullpen is the better of the Offensively, Milwaukee is
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 4: better the ranked tenth. Arizona's twenty fifth, as I already said,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 4: tied with Boston and Seattle, not great. Milwaukee's probably got
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 4: the starting pitching edge year as well, because they got
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 4: Kyle Harrison going. He's been good neither. I mean, that's
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 4: understating it. Two point five seventy array, one point zero four.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 4: Whip hasn't been as good on the road though, four
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 4: point two Roady Ray, so Harrison might be a little
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 4: bit fatable on the road maybe in certain spots. He's
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 4: been really really good, though, I mean his road numbers
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 4: are also being skewed. Keep that in mind, because he
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 4: had one really bad start on the road in that
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 4: ridiculous Vegas stadium that the A's were playing in, I
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 4: would throw that out completely. I think that's just a
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 4: complete outlier. Harrison's been really really good again since that start,
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 4: so I would completely ignore that if you throw that
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 4: start out. Harrison is not allowed more than two earned
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 4: runs in any start this season, So yeah, it seems
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 4: like an outlier to me. He's got low hit rate,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 4: he's got a nice, really high strikeout rate, pretty low
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 4: walk rate as well. Yeah, this is some good stuff.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 4: The Red Sox should not have traded him away the
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 4: Red Sox. You know, he's another lefty too, guy that
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 4: the Red Sox would like to have. The Red Sox
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 4: could have an arsenal of all left They could have
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 4: an entire rotation of good lefties. Dude. Imagine that with
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 4: if Crochet was healthy and they had Crochet totally, Bennett Early,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 4: and Harrison literally an entire rotation that's good of lefties.
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 4: That would be crazy, dude. And I think they're all
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 4: above six feet tall too. Anyway, Harrison, he's good. His
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 4: numbers against Arizona are actually not good though, in twenty
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 4: seven at bats four oh seven average allowed, onenty twenty
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 4: and one ops. So I don't know what to make
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 4: of this because here's the thing. Six to one strike
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 4: a walk ratio is good. Arizona has seen a lot
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 4: of them because Harrison was on the Giants, So the
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 4: good thing for Arizona is they're familiar with him. The thing, though,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 4: is that when Harrison was pitching for San Francisco, he
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 4: was nowhere near as good as he is right now.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 4: So I don't think Arizona has faced Harrison like the really,
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 4: really good Harrison that we get this year, you know
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 4: what I mean, So what do we do? How much
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 4: do we weigh those numbers, because yeah, Arizona's not faced
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 4: him this year. So even though Arizona was good against
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 4: the San Francisco Harrison, I don't think they're gonna be
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 4: able to do as well against the Brewers Harrison. So
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 4: I mean, obviously I don't want to bank on him
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 4: doing bad when he's only been bad and literally one
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 4: start this entire season. I don't think you could predict
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 4: that Harrison's gonna do bad. I mean, it could be
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 4: a matchup where maybe he struggles a little bit. I
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 4: wouldn't be I wouldn't want to bank on it. Though
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 4: Jose Cabrero is pitching for the Diamondbacks. He's a young guy.
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 4: He still doesn't have his picture on ESPN here. I
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 4: tried to back him in his last start and he
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 4: wasn't great. He's only made two starts in his career
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 4: so far. He's got a three point six y ARRA
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 4: and one point two whip. Not bad numbers still, though,
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 4: and I think he does have some talent his home start.
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 4: He's only made one start at home and one on
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 4: the road. He didn't do well enough to get us
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 4: that win on the road there. He does have a
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 4: zero er RA at home though, which was a five
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 4: inning performance where he shutout Minnesota. His last start. He
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 4: wasn't as good at Tampa Bay, but he got a
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 4: little bit unlucky, I would say a lot, a couple
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 4: of home runs there. His numbers overall, I mean his
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 4: strikeout rate, you want to see it be higher than
• 1:27:26
  Speaker 4: it is, but his walk rate is reasonably low. Hit
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 4: rate is right at one per inning. You know, these
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 4: numbers are not too bad. And again he's the guy
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 4: that does have some talent. And of course he does
• 1:27:37
  Speaker 4: have an advantage here where he's unfamiliar to the opposing lineup,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 4: which is who was I don't even care who it is.
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 4: They haven't seen him before. It's Milwaukee, although yeah, Milwaukee's
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 4: a decent offense, but still, yeah, Cabrera might line up
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 4: well here too. I think this game looks like an under.
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 4: I would probably I think I would go maybe he
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 4: could go full game. I don't know. I mean, you're
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 4: getting a key number of nine potentially year FD and
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 4: DK both have a nine juice to the under and
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 4: about minus one twenties, so you're getting on that key
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 4: number nine if you do it that way. Although going
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 4: under nine does worry me. I've done it before, of course,
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 4: but sometimes you know, the nine usually is an indicator
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 4: that the osbagers think it's gonna be a high scoring game.
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 4: But that is pretty high for a Harrison game. So
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 4: I don't know, man, I mean, you could go first
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 4: five under if you want to avoid the bullpens. I
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: think Arizona's bullpen is a little bit more questionable. I
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 4: don't hate the bullpens though, sixty seven percent of tickets
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 4: on the over seventy three percent of the cash on
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 4: the over, but I lean under in this game. I
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 4: could see the argument for either first five or full
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 4: game under. I think I would lean a little bit
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 4: more towards full game because you're on that key number
• 1:28:46
  Speaker 4: and nine there, and at least Harrison might get you
• 1:28:50
  Speaker 4: a little bit deeper into the game. You know. I
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 4: don't know what else to think about that, but I
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 4: do worry about Harrison's matchup numbers a bit. The money
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 4: is back in Milwaukee, by the way, one fifty something
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 4: seventy eight percent of the tickets, ninety four percent of
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 4: the cash on Milwaukee, So the money is on Milwaukee there.
• 1:29:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know about that. I mean, everybody kind of knows,
• 1:29:11
  Speaker 4: like Milwaukee's got the better record, their better team. Everybody
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 4: kind of knows Harrison's good at this point, So there
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 4: might be a little bit of value with maybe looking
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 4: towards Arizona getting them is a huge dog here. Maybe
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 4: they could stay in that game. I feel like when
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 4: I say that, sometimes it does pan out, But I
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 4: don't know, you know, I don't know how often that's
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 4: the game. It might be often enough that it overcomes, uh,
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 4: you know, the underdog. When you're playing underdogs, you don't
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 4: even need to win half of them, you know what
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 4: I mean. Uh, So whatever San Diego with the Dodger
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 4: is one of the big weekend series. Here, Happy America
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 4: with this, uh what looks like apple pie chips or
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 4: something with is or apple pie fried dough? What is
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 4: this year? I don't even know what. This is the
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 4: Dodger Stadium right now, dude, I'm gonna, I'm gonna. I'm
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 4: taking a little bit of a side. It's apple pie nachos.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 4: It's at Arizona Stadium, So there you go. Yeah, I
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 4: would I would absolutely eat that cinnamon and sugar tortilla
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 4: chips that that's what we're seeing there. I knew it
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 4: was something apple pie because obviously it's got apple pie
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 4: filling and what looks like vanilla ice cream and the
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 4: caramel or something and whipped cream. Yeah, there you go,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 4: bourbon caramel and it's vanilla fro yo because you got
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 4: you gotta be a little bit healthier. But yeah, I
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 4: would smash that. But yes, Happy America. There you go.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 4: Two hundred and fifty baby. Anyway, Dodgers won the game
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 4: in a ridiculously high scoring twelve seven game. Yesterday. I
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 4: did lean over yesterday. I did mention that as a
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 4: play I believe one of the options. I think I
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 4: also kind of threw out there was Dodger team total over.
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 4: I believe yesterday, if you did either one of those,
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 4: you easily won that game. So there you go. It
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 4: wasn't a good pitching matchup. It was Vasquez against Sasaki.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 4: Sandy Diego used three relief pitchers yesterday. They're better relievers
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 4: are available except Adam or A Dom I don't know
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 4: how you pronounced his name. He's hurt right now. But
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 4: their bullpen is still really good. I think they're a
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 4: little bit better than the Dodgers. Well, when the Dodgers
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 4: used six relief pitchers yesterday, so looks like Sasaki did
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 4: he even pitch. I don't know what he I don't
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 4: know what that is. Dodgers are ranked fifth and bullpen
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 4: San Diego is twelfth, but I don't think that's really
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 4: giving you the full picture. San Diego's got the better
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 4: uh eerra, but I think they're the better bullpen. I
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 4: think San Diego is like a top five bullpen. Dodgers
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 4: I don't think are quite at that level, but they're
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 4: both pretty good bullpens. This is a much better bitching
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 4: matchup today than yesterday. Michael King is pitching for San Diego.
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 4: He's good three point five to five VRRA one point
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 4: one to eight whip. He is a little bit worse
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 4: on the road three point nine to six roa DRA
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 4: is still not bad. Of course, San Diego is a
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 4: pitcher of friendly park, so he makes sense he pitches
• 1:31:57
  Speaker 4: better at home. He just faced the Dodgers, though, and
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 4: he was not good. And that was at home, so
• 1:32:03
  Speaker 4: that's not a good sign. Pitching at home in a
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 4: more pitcher from the environment where he usually does better. Yeah,
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 4: it didn't go well. He only went four and a
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 4: third innings, given it four runs on three hits, though,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 4: but the problem was he walked four guys, so it
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 4: wasn't really him getting unlucky. I mean, he was wild.
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 4: And he's walked three plus guys in three of his
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 4: last four outings. That's not a good sign. I know
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 4: the Dodgers are a really tough lineup to face, but
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 4: he has to face them again right away after that
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 4: other one, and in LA this time. Probably not great.
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 4: I did have five strikeouts in that one. But he's
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 4: been yeah, I mean he's been walk heavy recently. I
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 4: mean the walks are a little bit of an issue
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 4: with him, but they've been more of an issue recently
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 4: He's got a low hit rate, which is good. His
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 4: walk rate is a little bit high, like I was
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 4: alluding to high recently, and his strikeout rate is actually
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 4: kind of low. You know. I thought in the past
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 4: that he was more of a strike up pitcher than this,
• 1:32:58
  Speaker 4: but maybe I'm wrong about that. But this is not
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 4: a particularly good matchup for him. The Dodgers have a
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 4: two to fifty average off which isn't that high, but
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 4: they have an eight to twenty eight ops and they
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 4: have drawn a lot of walks off him. Thirty strikeout
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 4: sixteen walks. That is a really bad ratio in one
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 4: hundred and twenty four at bats. So Dodgers are really
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 4: familiar with King. King does not really have the upper
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 4: hand against them at all, I think. Yeah, the Dodgers
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 4: have the upper hand against him. So not a good
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 4: matchup for him. And he also has to go up
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 4: against Shohey Otani, who is the better of the two pitchers,
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 4: even though they're both good. Otani one point five eighty
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 4: ra point nine whip one point seven home ye ray,
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 4: believe it or not, is worse than his roadira, but yeah,
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 4: that's still good. He's allowed no more than four and
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 4: runs in any outing this season. He's allowed more than
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 4: three only once. He's allowed more than two only twice,
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 4: although both of those starts did come in June. But
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 4: I mean, he still wasn't even bad. Like one of
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 4: those was on the road against Pittsburgh. That's a difficult
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 4: place to pitch a really good offense. Tampa Bay. You know,
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 4: they're a capable offense. I don't know what to make
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 4: of that one. Padres have a very weak offense. The
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 4: last time he faced San Diego was in San Diego
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 4: on May twentieth. Then he actually wasn't excellent in that one.
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 4: He shut them out for five innings, but he was
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 4: kind of inefficient. You give up three hits, four strikeouts,
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 4: two walks. It wasn't the best start, but it was
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 4: still good, you know. And against San Diego, they don't
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 4: have good numbers off him. Fifty four at bats two
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 4: twenty two average, six to seventy seven ops. It's not
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 4: total domination, but he's he's definitely been, you know, he's
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 4: had the upper hand against San Diego. Still, twelve strikeouts,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 4: five walks is not a great ratio, but other than that,
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 4: pretty good. You know. I don't really think the Dodgers
• 1:34:47
  Speaker 4: are gonna lose this game. I think the matchup edge
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 4: does go to the Dodgers here. You know, I don't
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 4: know what the best way to play them. You can't
• 1:34:55
  Speaker 4: really play them here because they're like minus two fifty
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 4: and the money is fading them. And understand why ninety
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 4: tickets eighty eight percent of the cash on the Dodgers
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 4: totals eight. I mean, the thing is, if you're expecting
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 4: this to be a low scoring game, san Diego has
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 4: the better bullpen and their starting pitcher is a very
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 4: capable pitcher. So given all that, I mean, it does
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 4: make sense that you could maybe see some value on
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 4: San Diego just because the price is so extreme minus
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 4: two fifty. Like Kings should probably not be that big
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 4: of an underdog man, even though I know this is
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 4: not the greatest matchup for him. I still think the
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 4: Dodgers do probably win this game. But I don't, you know,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 4: I mean, you could lay a run line, I guess
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 4: on the Dodgers. I don't even know if I would
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 4: do that. The money's also back in the over pretty
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 4: strongly at eight. But this game looks more like an
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 4: under to me. I think it's I think there are
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 4: more pieces that fit for an under than an over.
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 4: Both starting pitchers are good, even though Kings matchup really
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 4: isn't that good, and the bullpens are both good. So
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 4: I think there's more in line with an under in
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 4: this game than an over. But yeah, I mean, I
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 4: don't see a great and you know, just a great
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 4: way to attack this, you know what I mean. You
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 4: could go Dodgers team total over again, probably gonna need
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 4: him to score five if you do it that way,
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 4: which they could definitely do. But you know, I don't
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 4: know if I want to do that necessarily in a
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 4: game where I think it might be a bit lower scoring.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 4: So I don't know, man, Maybe the way the best
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 4: way to still play this is to lay the Dodgers
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 4: minus want to have runs and just hope they win
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 4: the game, like, you know, five to three or something.
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 4: I mean, I don't I don't want to just hope.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 4: Last game is Toronto and Seattle. In jesssic scenario, Seattle
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 4: played yesterday and they're staying at home. Toronto did not
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 4: play yesterday, so uh, Seattle is at a rest disadvantage
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 4: and they just swept Anaheim at home. Of course, I
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 4: liked it the first five under quite a bit in
• 1:36:54
  Speaker 4: that game is that I didn't put it on my card,
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 4: and now I'm pissed Toronto. Uh was all yesterday, but
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 4: they're traveling cross country and you know, I talk about
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 4: how difficult that is. So even though Toronto has a
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 4: rest advantage here, the travel could hurt them, you know,
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 4: because they have to go all the way to the
• 1:37:11
  Speaker 4: West coast for a late, late game. So I talk
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 4: about that east Eastern Eastern time zone teams going out west.
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 4: It's not very helpful for them to have to go
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 4: out west. And I believe Toronto's in the Eastern time zone, right.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 4: I know there's almost sort of a Midwestern team, but
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 4: I think they are. Somebody could correct we have them
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 4: wrong about that, I'm pretty sure. But yeah, Toronto, yeah
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 4: going for even if they were not, even if it
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 4: wasn't that, they're traveling multiple time zones and then having
• 1:37:37
  Speaker 4: to play late on your biological clock. That's not good. Now.
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 4: Seattle they do. I think they do still have a
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 4: bullpen edge. They did use two of their better relievers
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 4: yesterday though, so I don't know. The bullpen's maybe even
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 4: out a little bit. Seattle's ran eighteenth but I think
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 4: that's really under selling them. They're not bad. Their ERA
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 4: is better than Toronto, who's that eleventh right now. In bullpen,
• 1:38:00
  Speaker 4: I think these are both okay bullpen. I think Seattle's
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 4: actually a good bullpen and Toronto's an okay bullpen in
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 4: my opinion, Seattle, like I said, they've been struggling offensively,
• 1:38:09
  Speaker 4: even though I think they have some of their guys back.
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 4: They're still tied in twenty fifth with the Red Sox
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 4: in Arizona. That's not good. Toronto's not a great offense
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 4: either though, at twenty third tied with the Reds not great.
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 4: So you know, this game does look like it's gonna
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 4: be a lower scoring game. Toronto's going with Dylan Cease.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 4: He's been good except again, you know, he does get
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 4: a bit wild three point oh two ERA, one point
• 1:38:33
  Speaker 4: two to four whip three point three to four road
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 4: the race. He's a little bit worse on the road.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 4: But this is a pitcher friendly stadium here. Cease wasn't
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 4: very good in his last outing though against Texas. This
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 4: was this start was just insane, dude. He went four
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 4: and two thirds innings, four earned runs. What was insane
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 4: about it is he had five walks, so he had
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 4: more than one walk per inning, but he's still had
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 4: twice as many strikeouts his walks. He had ten strikeouts.
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 4: Cease has thrown over one hundred pitches in three straight games,
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 4: which I don't exactly love, and he's walked four plus
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 4: in each of those outings. So in the last three games.
• 1:39:12
  Speaker 4: This is yeah, I mean, these numbers are just ridiculous.
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 4: So thirteen walks in the last three starts, but also whatever,
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 4: this is twenty five strikeouts. I mean these I don't
• 1:39:25
  Speaker 4: understan dude. These numbers are just so ridiculous. Like, he
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 4: has a walk rate that's so high that it would
• 1:39:30
  Speaker 4: just destroy any other pitcher. But he also has a
• 1:39:33
  Speaker 4: ridiculously high strikeout rate. He has one of the highest
• 1:39:36
  Speaker 4: strikeout rates in baseball. He's walking almost one guy every
• 1:39:40
  Speaker 4: two winnings. But he's getting away with it because he
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 4: allows very few hits, doesn't allow any home runs basically,
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 4: and his strikeout rate is really high. I still don't
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 4: like this walk rate though, but yeah, I mean, see
• 1:39:52
  Speaker 4: he does what he does, you know what you're gonna
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 4: get out of him pretty much. His numbers against Seattle
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 4: are decent in fifty two at bats two fifty average,
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 4: seven to twenty seven ops. Those are not great numbers,
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 4: but they're slightly in favor of Cease fifteen to fours
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 4: right at walk ratio is actually okay. Both home runs
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 4: he's allowed to Seattle or to a Rose Rayna who
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 4: is back from injury. But still most of the rest
• 1:40:17
  Speaker 4: of their guys don't do a whole lot against them.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 4: Nailer is seven for twenty five, but the rest of
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 4: these guys don't do too much against them, although most
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 4: of the guys haven't really seen him that much. But yeah,
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 4: I think more it's more in line with Cease pitching
• 1:40:30
  Speaker 4: well here. And then we do have a big wildcard
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 4: in Luis Castillo pitching for Seattle, who is back in
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 4: their starting rotation. You know what. I think maybe his
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 4: confidence will come back because he was pitching really poorly
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 4: this year, inexplicably, even though he's been pretty good throughout
• 1:40:46
  Speaker 4: his career and he's been a staple of Seattle's rotation,
• 1:40:50
  Speaker 4: you know. So, I don't understand why his numbers are
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 4: so much worse this year four point nine to three ERA,
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 4: one point three to six win. But they're actually getting
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 4: better and I think maybe his confidence has come back
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 4: because they decided to put him back in the starting
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 4: rotation after they had him, you know, going behind openers
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 4: and having him come out of the bullpen and whatever.
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 4: He pitched well his last time out at Cleveland, which
• 1:41:10
  Speaker 4: I know that's not saying much because Cleveland's offense is bad,
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 4: but he went six innings, allowed one or run of
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 4: four hits, four strikeouts, one walk, And if you want
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 4: a confidence boost, that might give it to you. And
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 4: he's back in the starting rotation, you know, so he
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 4: might actually carry that momentum forward here. He's been worse
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 4: at home, which just makes no sense to me. I
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 4: don't know what the deal is here. Five point six'
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 4: eight Homira is really really bad, even though usually Seattle's
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 4: pitchers are better at home because it's a pitcher friendly park.
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 4: But I think he should do well here. Generally, I
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 4: think he does pitch better at home throughout his career.
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 4: Toronto's not a good offense, so I think he should
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 4: pitch well now. Remember though, I did mention though that
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 4: Toronto they're gonna have some motivational edges here, so don't
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 4: forget that or excusely Seeattle is gonna have some motivational
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 4: edges year because you remember the last time Seattle played
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 4: Toronto here what was happening. It was the ALCS and
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 4: Seattle lost in I think in a dramatic extra inning
• 1:42:11
  Speaker 4: Game seven, if I remember, if I remember that correctly,
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 4: I forget. Maybe it was Game six. I don't remember.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 4: But Seattle, this is an ALCS revenge series here, So
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 4: Seattle is definitely gonna have revenge on their mind in
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 4: the series. They're definitely gonna be motivated here man. Seattle
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 4: is They're definitely gonna have their sights set on this series,
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 4: even though Toronto's not playing well this year, just because
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 4: Toronto was the team and eliminated them, you know, in
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 4: in the ALCS. So that is a that is one
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 4: of the revenge spots that matters. Now. Castillo does have
• 1:42:42
  Speaker 4: good numbers against Toronto in one hundred and nine at bats,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 4: so we have a big sample. He has a really
• 1:42:47
  Speaker 4: good thirty to six strike out walk ratio against them
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 4: two twenty average six thirty seven oh ps. So I
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 4: do still think the better way to play this game
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 4: is to go under, though I think that's what I
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 4: would do in this game. There are some question marks
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 4: with it. Of course, Castillo is a major question mark,
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 4: and the money's coming in on Toronto. Toronto's laying a
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 4: price that Minus won twenty six sixty percent of tickets
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 4: on them, sixty six percent of the cash on Toronto. Now,
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 4: Toronto does have the rest edge, like I said, but
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 4: going cross country might be a little bit difficult for them.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 4: And you're paying a price, dude, you're paying for cease
• 1:43:22
  Speaker 4: being on the mound, you know what I mean. Like,
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 4: I think you might see some you might see some
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 4: value on Seattle here, man, because Seattle's just not that
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 4: bad of a team. I think Castillo might be getting
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 4: a little bit overlooked here. You're getting Seattle at least
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 4: in a travel edge here, with a motivational edge here
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 4: to start this revenge series, staying at home and getting
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 4: them as an underdogs. So they think there are some
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 4: reasons to maybe look towards Seattle here. The money's also
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 4: backing the over which I don't understand. The totals at seven,
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 4: so it's a very low total. Oddsmakers know what they're
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 4: doing with that. They're telling you something with that total, Man,
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 4: they think this is gonna be a pitching duel here
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 4: pretty much sixty seven percent of tickets on the over,
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 4: eighty two percent of the cash on the over. I
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 4: still think my preferred way in this game is to
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 4: go under the total. At least you can get under
• 1:44:11
  Speaker 4: that key number seven most likely. I don't know if
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 4: you're gonna see a seven and a half anywhere. It
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 4: looks like the restaurant slash hotel with the guitar that's
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 4: mostly only available in Florida. They got a heavily juice
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 4: seven and a half under. But yeah, I think mostly
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 4: you're gonna be looking at a seven to the to
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 4: the under, but at least you're still on that key
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 4: number seven. All right, w n B A man, this
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 4: is gonna be a long This is gonna be long here.
• 1:44:42
  Speaker 4: I have WNBA play but I hold on, I don't know.
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 4: I actually have a World Cup play tune. Hopefully we
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 4: can get back on the winning side of the World
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 4: Cup because I'm owen no ow and oh and no
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 4: oh and one in the knockout round, even though I
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 4: was five and one in the group stage. Give me
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 4: a second, I haven't I haven't put the the NBA
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 4: game in yet. But we don't know what number we're
• 1:45:03
  Speaker 4: gonna get on this, so leg I said, this is
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 4: tentative and I'm recommending waiting to see what number you
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 4: get on this. But I'm not gonna talk about that
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 4: game first. I don't think first game is Minnesota and
• 1:45:14
  Speaker 4: New York New York. I mean they could be in
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 4: a little bit of a letdown spot because they did
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 4: just win the Commissioners Cup, so remember they return home.
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 4: I think we got a little bit screwed, you know,
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 4: with Vegas not covering in that game. Remember Asia Wilson
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 4: was out in that game, which is sort of a
• 1:45:32
  Speaker 4: hint as to where I'm going with my play today.
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 4: The Liberty could be in a little bit of a
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 4: letdown spot after that, but they're also not gonna overlook Minnesota. Man,
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 4: Minnesota is the best team in the league, even though
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 4: there's still without Collier, so when she comes back, I mean,
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 4: they're gonna probably be ridiculously dominant. Now, Minnesota is really
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 4: good on the road at nine to one. I've talked
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 4: about the Liberty aren't that good at home six and four,
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 4: and I mentioned that with my Vegas play because Vegas
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: has also been on the road. Yeah, Like, to me,
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 4: it just seems like the Western Conference is just a
• 1:46:05
  Speaker 4: lot stronger than the Eastern Conference in this league this
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 4: year Minnesota, I mean, they're having to travel in from Dallas,
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 4: but Minnesota has a rest edge, of course, because New
• 1:46:14
  Speaker 4: York played in the Commissioner's Cup on Tuesday. Every other
• 1:46:17
  Speaker 4: one of these teams has been off for a while.
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 4: But you remember, I always say that when a team
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 4: goes into a break on a good note, which Minnesota did.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 4: They beat Washington barely, though, but then they beat Dallas.
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 4: That was a nice win on the road against a
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 4: pretty good Dallas team. Their momentum could get stopped by
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 4: having extra time off, so that is a little bit
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 4: of a worry. Although I don't think Minnesota is gonna
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 4: overlook New York here. I think it's gonna be a
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 4: big game for both teams. Now the money is fading.
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 4: Minnesota seventy two percent of ticket seventy percent of the
• 1:46:46
  Speaker 4: cash on them, they're laying two and a half. So
• 1:46:49
  Speaker 4: that's what the oddsmakers think about this. Though. The oddsmakers
• 1:46:52
  Speaker 4: are basically telling you Minnesota is the better team here.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 4: The public kind of knows that too, because they have
• 1:46:57
  Speaker 4: the better record. But I kind of lean Minnesota here man,
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 4: I think it is a little bit of a letdown,
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 4: possibly because of the Commissioner's Cup win for New York.
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 4: I don't want to do it, but I think that,
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 4: you know, might be a look there. All right, Kenneth,
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 4: what's up? Man? Mischaracterized stories? Get the hell out of here. Man, ever,
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 4: everybody go give Kenneth a bunch of shit on Twitter.
• 1:47:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna respond to this. I don't mischaracterize anything.
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 4: Get on my level, bitch. I have way more followers
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 4: and way more popularity than you ever will because I
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 4: know what I'm doing as far as what I'm posting,
• 1:47:37
  Speaker 4: and I only post the truth as well. So I
• 1:47:42
  Speaker 4: don't know what else to say about that. I don't
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 4: even know what story you're talking about, but you're You're
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 4: a complete bitch. Get out of Get out of my mentions,
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 4: you coward. All right, let me see what was I tell? Yeah, dude,
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 4: this is also talk about sports on this This is
• 1:47:58
  Speaker 4: my sports show, asshole, all right now, Chicago, Vegas, this
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 4: is my play now you guys. Here's the thing, man,
• 1:48:06
  Speaker 4: it looks like we actually probably know at this point
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 4: what's going on with the Wilson injury. It looks like
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 4: she is not gonna play, but I'm still gonna make
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 4: this play here. Now I might like it a little
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 4: bit more now. I found Chicago at plus eight and
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 4: a half out there now, and I, well, I guess unfortunately, Well,
• 1:48:21
  Speaker 4: let me see if there's still an eight and a
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 4: half out there. Unfortunately, I might have to because I
• 1:48:26
  Speaker 4: did say weight on this, so I might have to
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 4: change this to a seven and a half, which I
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 4: don't want to do. Hold on, let me let me
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 4: look at the injury report here, because I think the
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 4: only reason why I would have dropped is because Wilson
• 1:48:39
  Speaker 4: it's been announced that she's out, she's still questionable. Yeah,
• 1:48:46
  Speaker 4: I don't know. I would still wait. I would just
• 1:48:49
  Speaker 4: wait on this, wait for the information because I think
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 4: the really at this point, all you could all you
• 1:48:54
  Speaker 4: could really do is get a better number on this
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 4: at this point, you know what I mean. So if
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 4: Wilson come back, you're gonna you're gonna get a better
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 4: number on this. So I would just wait. I'm gonna
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 4: I'm calling it eight and a half for now because
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 4: that's what I found it this morning. But I have
• 1:49:08
  Speaker 4: to count it as you know, the whatever we do.
• 1:49:10
  Speaker 4: Like I'm gonna wait. I'm gonna count it as whatever
• 1:49:12
  Speaker 4: I find throughout the day as the best the best
• 1:49:15
  Speaker 4: number that I can get see if I time it right.
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 4: But I like Chicago in this game, man, plus the points.
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 4: And I know they let us down in the in
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 4: the last game against Vegas, and then Vegas let us
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 4: down in the next game. But look at the spot
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 4: for Vegas here, dude. They were turning over from a
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 4: road trip. Uh So you know, I don't like teams
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 4: are turning over from road trips. They were on the
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 4: road for not quite a week, but still they're on
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 4: the road in Chicago. On Sunday. They beat Chicago, so
• 1:49:43
  Speaker 4: they just beat Chicago on the road, so they just
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 4: might overlook Chicago now now that they've beat them on
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 4: the road. And of course, you remember what I talked
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 4: about in this game here Vegas. This was a little
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 4: bit misleading, dude. Vegas shot fifty two percent from the
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 4: field from three, so those are some outliers that are
• 1:50:01
  Speaker 4: probably not gonna remain. And they hit thirty one free
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 4: throws compared to Chicago only hitting sixteen, so Vegas was
• 1:50:10
  Speaker 4: plus fifteen from the free throw line. They hit one
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 4: more three and hit a way higher percentage from three.
• 1:50:17
  Speaker 4: Chicago had eighty field goal attempts to Vegas is sixty three.
• 1:50:21
  Speaker 4: And somehow Chicago lost this game and didn't even cover.
• 1:50:25
  Speaker 4: It's obviously bullshit. And really the only quarter that decided
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 4: the game was the second quarter, So this game was bullshit.
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 4: I'm still pissed about it. Chicago won the rebound battle, dude,
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 4: so Chicago clearly should have covered this game. They missed
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 4: the plus seven. Of course, it was plus seven remembers,
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 4: so that was with Wilson playing for Vegas. Remember, so
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 4: if Wilson is going to play, I expect this number
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 4: to be like ten and a half. So I think
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 4: that's what we're hoping for. Because you know, the other
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 4: thing I'm gonna say is, if Wilson comes back here,
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 4: I'm still gonna I'm still gonna make the play at
• 1:50:59
  Speaker 4: the better number because you know, I always talking about
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 4: the reverse injured player spot. When one of your best
• 1:51:03
  Speaker 4: players comes back, you know what I mean, you have
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 4: to work her back in, you have to readjust again,
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 4: you have to get your you know, you have to
• 1:51:11
  Speaker 4: change your roles again. And the team's gonna be a
• 1:51:13
  Speaker 4: little bit overvalued, right, And they have to work her
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 4: back a little bit. So if that happens, if Wilson
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 4: comes back, this is still gonna be a play. But
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 4: again I'm saying, just wait until we know, so you'll
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 4: either make the play at like plus ten and a
• 1:51:27
  Speaker 4: half if she is coming back, or you're gonna probably
• 1:51:30
  Speaker 4: wind up on a plus seven and a half. But
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 4: I still think that's fine because you're still getting the
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 4: best of the key number there. And again this was
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 4: an outlier for Vegas there. They didn't even deserve to
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 4: win that game. Now, the returning home and I talk
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 4: about how the return home spot is a distraction, but
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 4: in addition to that, it could be a hangover spot
• 1:51:49
  Speaker 4: because Vegas just played. They lost for US in that
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 4: New York Commissioner's Cup game, So Vegas they played well
• 1:51:56
  Speaker 4: enough to get that game in my opinion, dude, even
• 1:51:59
  Speaker 4: without Wilson. You know, they were just a little bit
• 1:52:02
  Speaker 4: on the short end of that which I know that's
• 1:52:05
  Speaker 4: a positive for Vegas, but the fact that they played
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 4: better than it looked in that game. But other than that,
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: this is a bad spot. Dude. They're returning home across country,
• 1:52:14
  Speaker 4: by the way, so they're gonna have to play a
• 1:52:16
  Speaker 4: late night game after being on the East Coast. After
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 4: being on the East Coast on Tuesdays, you know, not
• 1:52:21
  Speaker 4: that much time to readjust to the time zone. So
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 4: I don't like that either. Meanwhile, Chicago is coming from
• 1:52:28
  Speaker 4: the Central time zone. Literally played Vegas in their last game,
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 4: and they have extra time off, So Chicago has a
• 1:52:34
  Speaker 4: rest advantage here, and they've had more time to adjust
• 1:52:37
  Speaker 4: to the time zone, and they are you know, they
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 4: at least have an advantage of having to only cross
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 4: two time zones instead of three here, but it's still
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 4: an advantage to them just because they've had time off
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 4: to adjust to it. So another advantage for Chicago here.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 4: Vegas might be hungover from that big game against New York,
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 4: and Vegas has a huge game on Sunday two days
• 1:52:58
  Speaker 4: from now. They got an ESPN game gets Indiana against
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 4: Caitlyn Clark, so you know that's gonna be a big game.
• 1:53:05
  Speaker 4: So this is a sandwich spot for Vegas plus a
• 1:53:08
  Speaker 4: quick revenge spot for Chicago. Plus it's a zig zag spot,
• 1:53:12
  Speaker 4: a road reversal revenge spot off a misleading result, and
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 4: if Wilson comes back, it's also gonna be reversed. Injured
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 4: player theory spots, So how many of the angles that
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 4: I look for a lineup in this game, even if
• 1:53:23
  Speaker 4: we don't get the injured player spot, I say, do
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 4: it take the points with Chicago, you know, take the
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 4: seven and a half. If you can't get any better
• 1:53:32
  Speaker 4: than that, That's what we're gonna do here. The money
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 4: doesn't agree with me on this. By the way, we
• 1:53:37
  Speaker 4: have seventy five tickets eighty four percent of the cash
• 1:53:39
  Speaker 4: on Vegas at minus seven and a half right now.
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 4: Obviously I do not agree. I know it is a
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 4: really high total though, at one eighty and a half,
• 1:53:47
  Speaker 4: which you know, I don't love playing underdogs when it's
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 4: gonna be really high total like that. But this spot
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 4: looks really good for it, and I was gonna say one,
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 4: oh yeah, I was gonna say one other thing. Vegas
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 4: is not as good at home. They're only five and
• 1:54:01
  Speaker 4: three at home, so this is a team that's kind
• 1:54:04
  Speaker 4: of beatable at home. And you're not even asking Chicago
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 4: to win, you're only asking him to cover all though,
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 4: Like I said, whenever you play on the underdog like
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 4: this in a range like this, I would say put
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 4: ten percent of it on the money line. We've I
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 4: think we've had two outright wins fading Vegas at home
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 4: this year with some pretty big underdogs. So that's a
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 4: decent sign. And yeah, if the if the line winds
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 4: up being ten and a half because Wilson comes back,
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 4: I would say put like maybe three percent on the
• 1:54:32
  Speaker 4: money line instead. All right, what else do we have here? Oh?
• 1:54:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah we have I'm gonna give out a play in
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 4: the World Cup as well. First game up is in
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 4: the afternoon. I do not want anything to do with
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 4: this game, which is a game between two teams that
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 4: I think are not gonna last long here. Whoever wins
• 1:54:49
  Speaker 4: this game I think is gone. In the next game,
• 1:54:52
  Speaker 4: Australia in Egypt. Yeah, I'm not impressed. Man, I don't
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 4: know what else to tell you. Australia, they did beat
• 1:55:01
  Speaker 4: I think it was a really misleading result. I think
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 4: Turkey was actually the better team in that game. That
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 4: doesn't that really just tells me that it was misleading
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 4: and it makes Australia look better than they actually were.
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 4: Australia lost to the US, I mean expected loss there,
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 4: and then they drew with Paraguay, which is gonna make
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 4: them look good because Paraguay just knocked out Germany. But
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 4: come on, man, I mean you're really gonna do you really?
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 4: People are gonna look at this as, oh, Austria is
• 1:55:28
  Speaker 4: better than Germany, or Australia is better than Germany because
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 4: Austria drew with Paraguay and Paraguay beat Germany. Now if
• 1:55:37
  Speaker 4: you handicapped like that, you're gonna be in the poorhouse.
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 4: Don't be an idiot. Germany is obviously way better than Australia.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 4: Outliers happen. This Australia team is not good, and they
• 1:55:49
  Speaker 4: played that Paraguay game in Santa Clara, California, so they're
• 1:55:52
  Speaker 4: traveling from there to Arlington, Texas for this. Egypt, I
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 4: think is coming in from somewhere on the Eastern time zone.
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 4: Egypt just had a draw with Iran, so nobody's gonna
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 4: give Egypt much credit for that. That was in Seattle,
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 4: actually my mistake. So these teams are all coming from
• 1:56:08
  Speaker 4: the West coast. Yeah, I mean, this is an ugly game.
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 4: It doesn't look good. Obviously, Iran not a very good team,
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 4: and Iran actually had more expected goals even though Egypt
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 4: had more possessions. It was a weird game. I think
• 1:56:23
  Speaker 4: Egypt gets this thing done. I mean, I don't know, man,
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 4: I think you could just play Egypt to advance. I
• 1:56:29
  Speaker 4: think that might be what I would do. I think
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 4: they were about minus one forty because they're plus one
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 4: thirty five on the three away line. And remember the
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 4: three way line and the totals and stuff like this
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 4: are only first ninety minutes. They don't include extra time
• 1:56:43
  Speaker 4: or anything else. But I think Egypt probably wins. I
• 1:56:46
  Speaker 4: think Australia is the team that's a little bit overvalued here. Egypt.
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 4: I mean, they were not that impressive either, but they
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 4: did face Belgium and play them to a draw. They
• 1:56:58
  Speaker 4: had an expected win over News England, who's really bad,
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 4: but they played a more difficult opponent in my opinion.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 4: I know US has favored over Belgium, but that's because
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 4: all the books are in the US and they all
• 1:57:10
  Speaker 4: know the US is gonna get heavy, heavy betting money.
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 4: The US is not actually better than Belgium, so I
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 4: think I think Egypt has actually faced a slightly more
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 4: difficult schedule here in my opinion, although well, Turkey is
• 1:57:24
  Speaker 4: not that bad, but I mean Paraguay in Australia or excuse me,
• 1:57:29
  Speaker 4: Paguay is bad, but yeah, the US is okay, whatever,
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 4: But yeah, I think Egypt to advance kind of makes
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 4: sense here. It's a low total, by the way, one
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 4: and a half, so oddsmakers are expecting not a lot
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 4: of goals here. But yeah, I mean, I don't know.
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 4: I think Egypt to advance might be the best way
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 4: to go because then you get either they win in
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 4: they could win in regular time, they could win an
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 4: extra time or winning penalties, and that any one of
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 4: those would win the bet for you if you do
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 4: it that way. All right, The next game up is
• 1:58:00
  Speaker 4: I almost wanted to play this Argentina and cape Verde.
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 4: These games are all on Fox Today and Telemundo and
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 4: Fox One, but not Fox Sports one. Now cape Verde.
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 4: They're just overvalued, dude. In my opinion. My problem is
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 4: I think Argentina is overvalued too. That's my problem. I
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 4: think both teams are over hyped because when I first
• 1:58:22
  Speaker 4: saw this, I was thinking I wanted to find a
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 4: way to play Argentina. I mean, people think cape Verde
• 1:58:27
  Speaker 4: can like hang in this game, it seems because oh
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 4: they had a draw with Spain and they had a
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 4: draw with Uruguay. Yeah, I know, but if you dig
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 4: into those games, Spain and Uruguay both dominated cape Verde
• 1:58:40
  Speaker 4: in those games. Those are both really misleading results. I
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 4: think it's bullshit. I know those are not easy opponents
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 4: to face, but still, then Cape Verdet had a draw
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 4: with Saudi Arabia, which is not a good sign. Saudi
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 4: Arabia is not good. So cape Verde, by the way,
• 1:58:57
  Speaker 4: they somehow made the knockout run. I think they were
• 1:58:59
  Speaker 4: the last team making into the knockout round. They only
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 4: had three points because they had three draws, so they
• 1:59:05
  Speaker 4: just had a better goal differential than Scotland. Scotland actually
• 1:59:09
  Speaker 4: won a game and Cape Verde did not, although Scotland
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 4: beat Haiti or whatever, but yeah, Scotland got bounced by
• 1:59:15
  Speaker 4: Cape Verde because of gold differential. I'm pretty sure this
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 4: is a different animal with Argentina. Argentina's minus seven hundred,
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 4: so obviously they're expected to easily win this game. This
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 4: game is in Miami. Argentina just beat Jordan, which who
• 1:59:30
  Speaker 4: cares easy win? That was in Arlington, Texas, so you know,
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 4: the travel spots not horrible from Argentina. Here. Argentina, they
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 4: did play a weaker schedule though, I mean they played
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 4: a pretty weak schedule. They played Algeria, Austria and Jordan. Yeah,
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 4: that's pretty weak. You know, Algeria did not look very
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 4: good yesterday. I told you I thought Switzerland would win.
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 4: Algeria did not look very good there, Arthus Argentie, Algeria
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 4: did not look good. Algeria excusely did not look good
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 4: last night. All these a teams, man, But yeah, my
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 4: worry with Argentina they have not faced a difficult schedule.
• 2:00:11
  Speaker 4: Cape Verde is actually more battle tested here, So that's
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 4: the other worry that I have here. But I think
• 2:00:16
  Speaker 4: Argentina does win this game pretty easily.
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 4: It's a total of only two and a half. And
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 4: usually you see, like I said, with like England the
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 4: other day and whatever, usually you see a three and
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 4: a half with a team that's very heavily favored. But
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 4: some of these teams just don't play very high scoring games.
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 4: And I think the air around Argentina, Oh, well, they
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 4: have Messi. They score a lot, and he's been scoring
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 4: a lot. Give him credit. He's got a lot of
• 2:00:41
  Speaker 4: goals already in the World Cup here. But I don't know, man,
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 4: I think Argentina is a little bit over hyped because
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 4: of MESSI he's pretty old now, I don't know, but
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 4: he is playing in Miami, though, so I think that
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 4: will give him a little bit of an edge here
• 2:00:54
  Speaker 4: because I believe he correct me if I'm wrong, but
• 2:00:57
  Speaker 4: he plays for Miami's MLS team, right, so he's he
• 2:01:01
  Speaker 4: kind of has a home crowd in Miami. So I
• 2:01:04
  Speaker 4: do believe that Argentina will have a crowd edge in
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 4: this game here. Plus cape Verrett. I mean, cape Verdet
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 4: is a pretty small nation, especially compared to Argentina. So yeah,
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 4: probably you're gonna have a Argentina with a fan edge here.
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 4: You know, I think the way to play this game
• 2:01:20
  Speaker 4: is probably I mean you could look at the win
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 4: to nil market, but I think Argentina win to nil
• 2:01:27
  Speaker 4: is still like minus one ninety. I mean that's a
• 2:01:29
  Speaker 4: lot better than minus seven hundred, of course, So you
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 4: could do that, like play Argentina to win without allowing
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 4: a goal, you know what I mean? Because Cape Verdet
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 4: has scored zero in two of their three games, and
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 4: Argentina has allowed zero and two of their three, and
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 4: they tend to kind of play I think they kind
• 2:01:47
  Speaker 4: of are playing these lower scoring games. I think Argentina
• 2:01:50
  Speaker 4: win to nil. Maybe actually is the way to play this.
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 4: But you have to lay minus one ninety so that
• 2:01:56
  Speaker 4: does worry me a little bit, but it's a lot. Again,
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 4: it's a lot better than seven hundred. I did give
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 4: out a similar price on Switzerland back in the group
• 2:02:03
  Speaker 4: stage with a within a winner an easy winner. There
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 4: another way that you could do this. I would lean
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 4: Argentina minus the two and a half goals too. I
• 2:02:12
  Speaker 4: worry about that because the over unders two and a half.
• 2:02:15
  Speaker 4: So really, like if you're laying Argentina minus two and
• 2:02:19
  Speaker 4: a half, you're you pretty much need this game to
• 2:02:21
  Speaker 4: be specifically a three to nothing win for Argentina. Like
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 4: I mean, I could see this game being two nothing Argentina,
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 4: I could see it being three to one, and either
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 4: one of those will lose you that bet if you
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 4: lay the minus two and a half, So that does
• 2:02:34
  Speaker 4: worry me a little bit. But you could do it
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 4: that way. You could lay the Argentina minus two and
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 4: a half. You know, I do think Argentina will win
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 4: this fairly easily though in my opinion, But you know,
• 2:02:48
  Speaker 4: I gave you my concerns with it too, and then
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 4: we we're gonna play this last game, which is my
• 2:02:52
  Speaker 4: last bet. We we gotta get a knockout win right here, man,
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 4: And I think we get a little bit of an
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 4: of an undervalue team here. I looked at the market
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 4: read at least on Action Network is actually saying that
• 2:03:06
  Speaker 4: the public is on Columbia a bit here, and Ghana
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 4: is actually getting more of the money. So I'm gonna
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 4: give out Ghana. I know this is a little bit juicy,
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 4: but this is the best way that I could find
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 4: to play this plus one and a half goals at
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 4: minus one fifty nine. And you might say, well, why
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 4: didn't I do a split bet here with a little
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 4: bit on the goal line and a little bit on
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 4: the money line like I do in baseball and hockey.
• 2:03:29
  Speaker 4: Soccer is a little bit different, man, Like the best
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 4: money line you can find on Ghana on the three
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 4: way line is actually plus eight hundred, believe it or not.
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 4: So some of the books really kind of think that
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 4: a draw is somewhat likely here, which makes me like
• 2:03:44
  Speaker 4: this plus one and a half more. But if you
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 4: wanted to do a split bet that way, and the
• 2:03:48
  Speaker 4: plus one and a half and the plus eight hundred,
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 4: the numbers just get all skewed like you're just putting
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 4: like very very little on one side of it, and
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 4: you're putting so little on the money line part of it.
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 4: It basically the whole bet winds up being on the
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 4: run line part of it anyway, So it doesn't even
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 4: make sense. Like it's almost it's very similar to doing
• 2:04:07
  Speaker 4: it this way. I know, we're laying one fifty nine
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 4: minus one fifty nine on this. It's a little bit pricey,
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 4: but this is the way that I found to play this.
• 2:04:14
  Speaker 4: Like I was thinking maybe gana wind draw, but the
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 4: wind draw was like ridiculous plus, but actually maybe that
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 4: you know, you could split between this and the wind
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 4: draw I get. I don't know, man, the wind draw
• 2:04:27
  Speaker 4: is like plus two hundred something, I think, or plus.
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 4: It might even be plus three hundred almost. I think
• 2:04:34
  Speaker 4: it's plus two hundred something. So this is the best
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 4: way that I could see playing this. Oh, by the way,
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 4: Argentina Cape Verde. By the way, I forgot to mention
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 4: their travel situation here. Argentina is traveling from Texas. I
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 4: think I did say that Cape Verding played in Houston,
• 2:04:51
  Speaker 4: so they're both coming in from Texas there, So stuff
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 4: to keep in mind. There this game, we have a
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 4: Columbia coming in to Kansas City from playing in Miami.
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 4: So Colombia is coming from Miami and Ghana, I believe
• 2:05:07
  Speaker 4: is I don't. I don't even remember where Ghana was.
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 4: Ghana was in Philadelphia, So I don't really think it's
• 2:05:12
  Speaker 4: a big edge one way or the other. But what
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 4: I think is the edge here is the situation. Uh,
• 2:05:18
  Speaker 4: Colombia just had a draw with Portugal. Dude, that's a
• 2:05:21
  Speaker 4: huge deal. I mean, Portugal still has all this name recognition,
• 2:05:24
  Speaker 4: people still consider them to be one of the top
• 2:05:27
  Speaker 4: several teams here. I think Portugal's overrated, but Colombia had
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 4: a draw with them zero zero. That was a huge
• 2:05:35
  Speaker 4: game for Colombia. That makes them look really good and
• 2:05:39
  Speaker 4: that's what they're coming off of. And actually they outplayed Portugal,
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 4: although of course Portugal didn't really need a win, like
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 4: they might have just played for a draw here, you
• 2:05:47
  Speaker 4: know what I mean, Portugal, they were gonna advance anyway.
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 4: I don't know if they really cared about, you know,
• 2:05:52
  Speaker 4: getting the top spot in the group or not. Now,
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 4: Colombia did outplay them, which is kind of damning for Portugal.
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 4: But Colombia is still in the put up one point
• 2:06:00
  Speaker 4: seven expected goals. I know that's pretty good when playing
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 4: against Portugal, and they won the possession battle, whatever. But
• 2:06:06
  Speaker 4: Colombia was the much more motivated team I think in
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 4: that game. This game, I'm not sure that they will
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 4: be and they're coming off that huge game. I mean, well,
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 4: obviously it's knockout. Both teams are gonna be super motivated
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 4: because it's the knockout stage. And while yes, I think
• 2:06:20
  Speaker 4: Colombia should win an advance and I did pick them
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 4: to advance in my bracket and whatever, Ghana will win
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 4: for us if they lose my one here, and I
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 4: think that's fairly likely because if you look at these
• 2:06:31
  Speaker 4: other Colombia games, look at their games due they had
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 4: a one nothing win over Dr Congo, which does not
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 4: impress me, and Colombia almost had a zero zero draw.
• 2:06:41
  Speaker 4: They scored at the seventy six minute mark to finally score.
• 2:06:45
  Speaker 4: That's not a good sign because they were a big
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 4: favorite against Congo and didn't do well. And I mean,
• 2:06:51
  Speaker 4: look at how low scoring this game really was. Both
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 4: teams had below one expected goals here. So Colombia this
• 2:07:00
  Speaker 4: helps us out here because we need Colombia to just
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 4: not score that much here, and I think that very
• 2:07:04
  Speaker 4: well maybe the case here. I mean Colombia did win
• 2:07:07
  Speaker 4: the possession battle, had way more shots. I mean that
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 4: was expected against a very inferior opponent, but they were
• 2:07:13
  Speaker 4: not impressive in that game, so that would would worry me.
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 4: With Colombia and their other game, you know, they beat
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 4: Who's Bekistan, I mean that's not impressive either. Everybody beat
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 4: whos Bekistan. Whoz Bekistan lost all three of their matches.
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 4: They suck, They picked up zero points. I'm pretty sure
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 4: Colombia in that game they only had one point six
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 4: to one expected goals. I think that's kind of a
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 4: red flag. They won three to one, but they only
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 4: had four shots on goal one point six to one expected.
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 4: They won the possession battle, but they didn't really dominate
• 2:07:44
  Speaker 4: it like they probably should have. One of their goals
• 2:07:46
  Speaker 4: was kind of fluky, really late in stoppage time too.
• 2:07:51
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean Colombia did not really score as
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 4: many goals, like they scored more goals than they should have.
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 4: Is when I meant to say, meanwhile, Ghana has actually
• 2:08:02
  Speaker 4: been more battle tested in my opinion. Ghana. They beat Panama,
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 4: I know that's not that impressive, but they beat they
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 4: had a draw with England, so they're definitely battle tested.
• 2:08:13
  Speaker 4: If they were able to do that, that's pretty impressive,
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 4: and I know it was a little bit misleading. England
• 2:08:19
  Speaker 4: did kind of dominate the game sort of like they
• 2:08:22
  Speaker 4: dominated possession, but England did not really have many good
• 2:08:25
  Speaker 4: scoring chances at all in that game. So Ghana, they're
• 2:08:28
  Speaker 4: not really a good offense really, but they are good
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 4: on defense, and that's what you want here, man. You
• 2:08:34
  Speaker 4: want a team that's battle tested when you're taking a
• 2:08:37
  Speaker 4: plus one and a half goals, you want a team
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 4: that's battle tested and and has been able to keep
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 4: opponents from scoring. And the best offense they faced was Croatia,
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 4: in my opinion, the last time they played, and this
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 4: game almost wound up being a one to one draw.
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 4: Croatia scored late to win it. They held Croatia to
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 4: point four to two expected goals, man, so that's pretty good.
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 4: Like Ghana. Their defenses is playing pretty well and possession
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 4: was almost even in this one. So Ghana actually played
• 2:09:07
  Speaker 4: pretty well as an underdog here too. So, dude, Ghana,
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 4: they've been they're more battle tested, Dude, Ghana has been
• 2:09:13
  Speaker 4: an underdog in two of their three matches, and they've
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 4: covered the plus one and a half goals. They've covered
• 2:09:19
  Speaker 4: every single match. Uh so they have not lost by
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 4: more than one in any match, and basically every one
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 4: of their games almost kind of looked like a draw
• 2:09:28
  Speaker 4: for the most part. So yeah, actually, except for the
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 4: Panama one, I didn't really look at the expected goals there.
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 4: I'm getting into it a little bit too much here,
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 4: but hold on, I guess I'll just do it now
• 2:09:41
  Speaker 4: that I mentioned it. And yes, it's a long show today. Man,
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 4: it's Friday night, you know whatever, we're talking about Friday
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 4: night action here. Hopefully we get this right, man, because
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 4: I want to keep winning in in the in World Cup.
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 4: Here five five and two, you know, still not bad.
• 2:10:01
  Speaker 4: I wanted to look at Ghana and Panama. Let me
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 4: just look at this. I'm guessing that it was like
• 2:10:07
  Speaker 4: a low scoring game is expected. Ghana won the game
• 2:10:09
  Speaker 4: and stoppage time, so, like I said, this was almost
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 4: a zero zero draw. Yeah. I mean, Ghana lost the
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 4: possession battle in this game, which isn't really that good,
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 4: but they did win the expected goals battle. I don't
• 2:10:19
  Speaker 4: really know how ESPN tallies that or whatever service is
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 4: tallying that, but whatever. Yeah, I think Ghana's undervalued here, man,
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 4: that's my point. I think they've been more battle tested,
• 2:10:32
  Speaker 4: and I think Columbia is a little bit overvalued based
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 4: on what they just did. And I think it could
• 2:10:37
  Speaker 4: be a hangover a little bit coming up that huge
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 4: game against Portugal, whereas Ghana, I know they're coming up
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 4: a pretty big win game as well, losing kind of
• 2:10:46
  Speaker 4: dramatically to Croatia, but I put less weight into that.
• 2:10:50
  Speaker 4: So and again I showed you how these teams have
• 2:10:52
  Speaker 4: played these games. They basically both have played some pretty
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 4: low scoring games here looking at the expected goals, the
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 4: expected goals have had these games being pretty pretty low scoring.
• 2:11:03
  Speaker 4: So this to me looks like it could be a
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 4: low scoring game. The total is two and a half,
• 2:11:07
  Speaker 4: where it usually is, but you know, yeah, I mean
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 4: I like this. I will take the plus one and
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 4: a half. I know you're laying a little bit of
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 4: juice for it, but thank you, thank you, sir. Anyway,
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 4: that's gonna do it. That's the last game to talk about.
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 4: So all the places today, we have the Baltimore Orioles
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 4: on the money line, we have the Red Sox and
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 4: Angels first five under four we have. I said, wait,
• 2:11:33
  Speaker 4: play the Chicago Sky but weight and it's either gonna
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 4: be plus seven and a half at this point or
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 4: plus ten and a half, So I'm gonna probably score
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 4: it at one of those. I'm gonna I'm gonna do
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 4: what I what I'm telling you to do, and I'm
• 2:11:43
  Speaker 4: gonna keep keep watching the market, just watch the injury report.
• 2:11:46
  Speaker 4: But really, I think just take a look, like you know,
• 2:11:49
  Speaker 4: the game's gonna be I think at eight pm or
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 4: something or or no, it might be later in that
• 2:11:54
  Speaker 4: Eastern I mean, but whatever, just keep an eye on it,
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 4: like look around like maybe six pm. Take a look
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 4: at the Asia report. I don't think the line is
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 4: gonna drop that much more from the seven and a half,
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 4: you know, because that's what they were laying on the road,
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 4: so it can't really drop that much more than that.
• 2:12:11
  Speaker 4: So you know, I would take the points with Chicago
• 2:12:14
  Speaker 4: there and then yeah, and it might be ten and
• 2:12:17
  Speaker 4: a half if she does come back, and then we're
• 2:12:21
  Speaker 4: on Ghana in the World Cup plus one and a
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 4: half goals of they'll laying a little bit of juice
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 4: with that. But I think that's the better way to
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 4: play that. That's gonna do it. Learn it ton on Twitter,
• 2:12:29
  Speaker 4: learn it tone on Instagram, like subscribe to the channel here,
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 4: got to get to five hundred. Man, I know people
• 2:12:35
  Speaker 4: don't want to follow me anymore because we've been ice
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 4: cold recently. Oh sorry, I didn't put that up because
• 2:12:39
  Speaker 4: I don't even want to do it. But there it is.
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 4: It's still a good run over the last eighty nine days.
• 2:12:44
  Speaker 4: Like I said, you can't run at sixty seven percent,
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 4: it's impossible. So you knew there was gonna be a
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 4: bad regression and we've hit it right now. I win
• 2:12:53
  Speaker 4: more than I lose, and that's what I do with
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 4: baseball has really really regressed badly after I was really hot,
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what else to tell you about that.
• 2:13:02
  Speaker 4: Then we've still won on the season in baseball. Then
• 2:13:05
  Speaker 4: we still want on the year overraw by a decent amount.
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 4: What else did I have to say? Uh? Covered in
• 2:13:12
  Speaker 4: yuke is my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 4: that up. My voice is not holding up Paedreon dot
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 4: com sash learned to toad You want to support me
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 4: that way? Some bonus yuke stuff there. If my voice
• 2:13:21
  Speaker 4: ever comes around because I want to, you know, start
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 4: doing some live jams and stuff. Listen to this show,
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 4: Toadstool Sports on audio. You can find it on an
• 2:13:29
  Speaker 4: Apple spreaker. Numbers have been doing okay over there, but
• 2:13:32
  Speaker 4: obviously I want those numbers to skyrocket if possible. Loser cast,
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 4: I will be back on Tuesday night. It was on
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 4: Monday this week. And check that out New York Giants
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 4: g Spot podcast and that is it. Got to eat
• 2:13:45
  Speaker 4: some lunch soon. I appreciate everybody, peace, but don't.
• 2:13:50
  Speaker 2: You go quiet. Don't you play it from the flow.
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 3: Your name still means something to somebody for show.
• 2:13:58
  Speaker 2: Put the glass down, babe, look at me.
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 1: Now, hold on, hold on.
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 2: Nothing nice, now, hold on, hold on.
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 1: Let me foll you.
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 3: That bites, but it don't get the crown. Hold on,
• 2:14:32
  Speaker 3: hold on
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 4: And stay with me now