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Transcript

2022 Crop Tour Day 3 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: This is your host, Mike Miner.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_00: Today is August 3rd, and we've got Mike Miner on today.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Just going solo here, day three wrap-up of the crop tour for the United States here.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: And uh to get started, we had a decent pop on the overnight here.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: The grain market's back up another four cents on corn to five ninety-eight.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_00: And we had the November soybeans,$13.97, up about 10 cents yesterday.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: They got whacked a little bit yesterday again with uh some changing weather models there.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: We did see a little bit more rain in the uh in the Euro model for the western part of the corn belt here, and a little bit uh less in the GFS model, but we did put some more rains in over the next couple weeks.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Overall, it's still hot and dry in the western corn belt here over the next two weeks, but uh we did see uh see quite a bit of rain yesterday going through the eastern corn belt in Illinois.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_00: Uh continuing to see some of those showers here today, a little bit north of us.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: We uh did travel yesterday from uh about Champaign, uh Illinois, about the center of the state, moved straight west to Crawfordsville, just north of Indianapolis yesterday, then worked our way into Ohio, just north of Dayton, kind of worked through that, went north a little bit, and then started working our way back west again.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: So ended uh ended the day uh south of Fort Wayne, closer to the central part of the state, just north of Crawfordsville a little bit again as we wrap back north.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Um overall, uh there are large expectations for this crop in the eastern corn belt to try to make up for some of the shortfalls of the crop in the western corn belt.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: And what we started to see yesterday was as we moved towards the eastern side of Illinois, uh, some of the samples continued to be a little bit disappointing.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of the disappointing samples yesterday were shorter length.
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_00: The round counts were still pretty good yet.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: Uh maturity maybe wasn't quite there, very similar to some of the 2020 years, um, something like that, maturity-wise over here, but overall it it looked decent.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_00: It was just a little bit shorter ear, and uh, we continue to see that at a lot of the stops that we have seen 40 counts, you know, 35 to 40 counts in the past.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we're getting the same round count on some of those, but it is significantly shorter, probably five to ten kernel lengths shorter, and a little bit of tip back here and there.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: And uh we did see this more on the eastern side of Illinois, kind of where that drought is in the western side of Indiana.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: So that did uh make its presence in the drought map, anyways.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_00: But as we worked uh east, it was a fine line between the uh the wet or the the dry spot and the western side of the state.
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: You had uh a small gap where it was kind of perfect between the two, between Ohio and uh Indiana.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: And then as we started to get into Ohio, we did see really, really wet conditions into Ohio from um from this spring and that have started to dry out a little bit.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: They did get their crop in.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Uh most fields seem to be planted, but they were planted incredibly late from a lot of the reports.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: So end of May, beginning of June, a lot of corn going in in that time frame.
• 3:42
  SPEAKER_00: And you could definitely tell the difference between the fields that got in early and late.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we have a pretty couple pretty good pictures on that, anyways, but that um in Ohio type area there, that's gonna struggle a little bit.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: Further east, the reports seem to have a pretty good crop into central Ohio.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing to complain about in the central part of the state.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: And then um as we worked west again last night, it really didn't take too much uh too much time to get back to some normal looking corn stands, uh pretty decent consistency across the field.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: The soybeans were a little bit more disappointing on the trip here yesterday.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: They continue to be a little bit more up down, especially from that Ohio back through the w northwestern uh or the northern part of Indiana.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: Uh still continuing to see a lot of up down in these shorter soybeans, and uh that is a that is definitely a trend that we have noticed here.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: So uh there were some question marks that were raised yesterday and a couple of the stops there uh about the ability for this crop in the east to try to make up for the crop in the west.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: And it's we found a lot of average crops, I should say.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: If you take the five-year averages, seems like that's what they came out at.
• 4:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um it wasn't fantastic, probably not complete record crops over here, but it's it's a pretty good crop from what we've seen so far.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: And we're gonna see some really important areas here as we move on the the northern part of Indiana and uh Illinois today.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um that's gonna and into oh into Iowa.
• 5:14
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna go through some really good production areas that we look uh to try to make up for it.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: They've been catching some really nice rainfall here through these states here over the past couple weeks, though.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: You can tell, and uh it's gonna help finish this crop out.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Really great weather for Cropville, and uh it's not it's maybe not gonna be a complete record over here, but I I think we have good crops in uh in areas that matter, but um not quite as good as what I was expecting with the reports going into it.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: So we're gonna we're gonna keep that in mind when we come up with some of the final estimations.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: I know uh Lucas Peters, he is gonna make his way into some drier spots into South Dakota and the southeast part of the state today.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we'll be uh keeping touch with him through his journey today.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Otherwise, folks, we'll catch you uh tomorrow.
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna end up about Cedar Rapids type area tonight and take off and finish our tour tomorrow and have that day's report, and then Friday will be the tell all.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: We will come out with our final estimates, talk about a the crop tour in general, and uh really have some fun numbers to talk about.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be interesting.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: Um a lot of our numbers are coming in fairly fairly close to what uh uh Stone X came out with uh so far from their um from the report they released here last night or this morning.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: So that is something to keep in mind too, and uh we're really looking forward to seeing what uh what these last few days have entail for us.
• 6:43
  SPEAKER_00: So if you have any questions, please reach out to us.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we'll be around.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: Please reach out to us from our website at professionalagmarketing.com or check out our newly added hog specific podcast named Hog Market Talk that's released every Thursday.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk and loss that is not suitable for all investors.