Latest / The Fourcast / Was Trump's Venezuela attack all about oil?
Transcript
- 0:00Trump has a sort of fantasy of resource imperialism rather than
- 0:03actually being involved in the details and the reality.
- 0:06There is this vast wealth sitting underneath Venezuela.
- 0:10Extracting Maduro might have been the easy part because
- 0:13extracting Venezuelan oil might be a lot harder.
- 0:20Hello and welcome to the forecast.
- 0:22Venezuela has long been a country of contradictions,
- 0:25sitting on the world's largest oil reserves while its economy
- 0:28collapsed around it. Now Donald Trump's removal of
- 0:31Nicolas Maduro and Washington's effective control of the country
- 0:34has pushed Venezuela back to the centre of global politics.
- 0:38At stake is not only a vast energy price, but a bigger shift
- 0:42in how nations compete for resources, from crude oil to the
- 0:45critical minerals shaping the future of technology.
- 0:48To unpack what Trump's move really means, what is happening
- 0:51inside Venezuela's broken energy sector, and how all of this
- 0:55connects to a wider global race, I'm joined by our economics
- 0:58correspondent Helia Abrahami and journalist Henry Sanderson,
- 1:01who's an expert in resources and an associate fellow at RUSI.
- 1:06Welcome to you both, Henry Sanderson.
- 1:08First, I mean, it feels really seismic what has happened in
- 1:10terms of the world order. But what is it really about?
- 1:15So what I think it's really about is kind of what what Trump
- 1:17revealed in the the national security strategy, which is
- 1:20defining Latin America as in the US backyard as part of their
- 1:25interests, their region, and sending a message that China
- 1:28should get out and and Russia should get out.
- 1:31But it's so. This is a Don Row doctrine.
- 1:33He's renamed. The Monroe Doctrine hasn't.
- 1:35That's exactly right. But also with Trump, of course,
- 1:38it's always personal. I think he was taunted by
- 1:40Maduro, sort of dancing and singing and provoking him.
- 1:44So it's also a bit of a bit of that.
- 1:46We never know with Trump how much a strategy, how much is
- 1:49sort of his personal animosity. But I think more broadly, it is
- 1:53about trying to reclaim Latin America because we saw this
- 1:55extraordinary advance by China right across the continent over
- 1:59the last decade and investing in in all sorts of resources, which
- 2:03I can talk more about. Well, we'll talk about resources
- 2:05and we'll also talk about where else in America's backyard.
- 2:08We'll come back to that. But Helia, what's it all about?
- 2:10I mean, as you said at the beginning, there is this vast
- 2:14wealth sitting underneath Venezuela, the world's largest
- 2:18oil reserves, 20% of the world's entire oil reserves is sat in
- 2:23the Orinoco Basin. Now, extracting Maduro might
- 2:28have been the easy part because attracting Venezuelan oil might
- 2:33be a lot harder. Despite having these huge
- 2:36reserves, oil production in Venezuela has really created.
- 2:41I mean, it's less than 1,000,000 barrels a day and that is 1% if
- 2:47not a bit less than the whole world production.
- 2:50So it's it's, it's a challenge. The easy part must have been the
- 2:53political stuff. What's more difficult is getting
- 2:56their hands on the. Yeah.
- 2:57And, and Henry, you know, it was, there were parallels with
- 3:01other events in history, other US actions, but it was
- 3:04unprecedented in its nature. Markets don't tend to like that
- 3:07kind of thing, do they? So how?
- 3:08What was the immediate reaction? Yeah, you would think markets
- 3:11would be on edge, but actually oil prices the last time we
- 3:14tried to fallen today and that's because the global markets awash
- 3:18in oil. So it's not like a sudden
- 3:20shortage. And as just mentioned,
- 3:21Venezuela's production has has completely collapsed.
- 3:24You know, it's it's three times more decades ago.
- 3:28So that's the reason the market is not really paying a lot of
- 3:31attention to that. But I think behind the market
- 3:33reaction is this other very important seismic shift, which
- 3:37is the rise of electric vehicles.
- 3:39And China is a massive oil consumer and 50% of new car
- 3:43sales in China are EVs and that's going to get to 70% by
- 3:46the end of the decade. So what actually is the longer
- 3:49term forecast for oil? And this is so important because
- 3:53who's going to plow billions into Venezuela when you have an
- 3:56uncertain outlook? Of course, Trump's bullish on
- 3:59oil, but but what actually is the the longer term forecast?
- 4:02One of the most important questions.
- 4:05Well. So yeah, Helia, pick up on that
- 4:06point about oil prices in the, you know, now and in the coming.
- 4:09I mean, oil is around $60.00 and it's coming down.
- 4:13And next year, as Henry was saying, there's actually a glut
- 4:17in world oil supply. Why is that?
- 4:20Well, because you've got OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia
- 4:23turning on the taps under pressure from Trump.
- 4:25Remember that in his first aid, Kathy, he said he wants oil
- 4:29prices, energy prices to come down.
- 4:32But you've also got other countries, non APEC countries,
- 4:36neighbors of Venezuela like Guyana, Brazil, Norway, even
- 4:40bringing on oil supply in that global world, though, I think
- 4:45it's very important to say that exactly the kind of oil that's
- 4:50in Venezuela is the kind of oil that American refineries really
- 4:55know how to use and are desperate for or chronically
- 4:59short of at the moment. And those refineries are based
- 5:03in states that Trump is is very popular in.
- 5:07Yeah. And.
- 5:08There is one U.S. oil giant in there at the moment.
- 5:10Isn't there Chevron in Venezuela?
- 5:12Chevron, but they they operate, I think.
- 5:14So in the 90s when Hugo Chavez came in, they were naturalized,
- 5:18appropriated. Yeah.
- 5:20Thank you very much. But you've got these American
- 5:24companies like Chevron, like ExxonMobil, who were two
- 5:27companies at that time. You've got Conoco Phillips that
- 5:30had lost lots of money. Now Chevron operates there, but
- 5:34it operates as AJV with the nationalized Venezuelan oil
- 5:39company. That is a very different kind of
- 5:41setup to actually owning the oil and owning the production and
- 5:45being able to start new projects, whereas where the real
- 5:49profits are. And I come back to the US oil
- 5:52companies going going in, in just a moment, but just explain
- 5:54this business that we talked about in the intro earlier
- 5:57before we move on. Venezuela has the largest oil
- 5:59reserves in the world and yet production has collapsed.
- 6:02Just explain what's behind that. I mean, mismanagement, There's
- 6:06been lots of obviously U.S. companies, European companies
- 6:12were pushed out of Venezuela. It was nationalized under Hugo
- 6:18Chavez. A lot of money in the
- 6:20infrastructure was wasn't put in.
- 6:23So years and years of underinvestment has led to this
- 6:28kind of creaking infrastructure where there are oil drills that
- 6:31are left abandoned, there are spills that go unchecked and
- 6:36there's been lots of fraud as well, as well as a kind of big
- 6:39accident. So huge problems so.
- 6:42Henry, we said, what is this really all about?
- 6:44Is it an economic act or is it about resources?
- 6:47Or is other two interlinked? Yeah, I think interlinked, I
- 6:50think Trump does have this vision and strategy of securing
- 6:55resources. You know, China has gone around
- 6:57the world, as I said, under the noses of the US over the last
- 7:00decade. They're late to the game.
- 7:02Also the US, they feel like they're they've really got
- 7:05behind that. China has had the head start in
- 7:09getting minerals, getting resources and I think.
- 7:12As it's doing across Africa. As it's as it's done across
- 7:15Africa. I mean, The thing is that people
- 7:18around Trump, Trump and Trump, I think is starting to believe
- 7:21that they are really late to the game and that they need to act
- 7:25now because they want to milk American dominance.
- 7:29So, So what? Just explain this term, resource
- 7:31nationalism. That's doing the rounds, Henry.
- 7:33Yes, Resource nationalism is basically governments of
- 7:35resource rich countries trying to get a greater share of the
- 7:38resources for themselves or moving up the value chain.
- 7:41In essence saying you can have our resources if you invest in
- 7:44processing or smelters. And Indonesia is a really
- 7:48classic example of this. It's basically a few years ago
- 7:51said we're going to ban exports of nickel unless you build
- 7:54smelters and other refineries in Indonesia.
- 7:57And China invested billions of dollars in doing exactly that.
- 8:00And Indonesia got the jobs, moved up the value chain, is now
- 8:04producing batteries and electric vehicles.
- 8:06So that is a, for example, it is fair enough, but the problem is
- 8:10if you don't have the infrastructure or the workforce
- 8:14that Indonesia has, you know, you can end up, you know, not
- 8:18exporting resources and not creating jobs and also leading
- 8:22to to prices to rise and investors to leave.
- 8:25But listen, Kathy, there is a panic with American bosses.
- 8:29There was a tech boss that said to me recently that he thought
- 8:33that, like many people think, China has already won the AI
- 8:38robotics race. People are seeing China invest
- 8:42in their military. They're seeing them invest in
- 8:44AI. They're seeing them, you know,
- 8:47be a huge kind of proponent of resource nationalism.
- 8:51They just. Don't make as much noise as
- 8:53Donald Trump does about it well. Donald Trump makes quite a bit
- 8:56of noise, so it's the. Noisiest world leader, but I
- 8:58mean, where does he sit in this resource?
- 9:00Nationalism, then. Well, I think he he looks at the
- 9:03world and you know, he's one of those people who probably looks
- 9:05at the dictators around the world and thinks why are we not
- 9:09doing the same? Why are we not expanding and
- 9:12making the most? I think he's been clear about
- 9:14why is the US not capitalizing on its economic power in
- 9:19actually monetizing it. That's what the trade wars were
- 9:23about last year. And now you're seeing that
- 9:26enacted in trying to make a stamp stamp forward for
- 9:29resources. We've been talking, talking
- 9:31about the markets we've defined this term resource nationalism.
- 9:34But let's talk about what it means for ordinary Venezuelans,
- 9:36for Americans and for all of us around the world because I was
- 9:39really struck talking to an American Venezuelan journalist
- 9:43in Venezuela over the weekend. And today.
- 9:45In fact, you know, she can't be absolutely, you know, speak from
- 9:50the heart about what's happening there because there's people are
- 9:53too fearful, you know, still, and and quite rightly so, you
- 9:56know, there are armed gangs marauding the streets with with
- 9:59weapons. So yet you sense from the
- 10:03Venezuelan diaspora a sense of euphoria and hope.
- 10:07What does all of this mean in terms of we were talking about
- 10:10oil prices for American consumers, for Venezuelan
- 10:14consumers? If the market is stabilized by
- 10:16Trump, what does it mean for all of us?
- 10:19Well, I mean, let's talk about Venezuela first start, you know,
- 10:22where GDP per capita is below $4000.
- 10:27The opposition leader who actually beat out Donald Trump
- 10:30for the Nobel Peace Prize has been quite clear that she
- 10:34welcomes private companies to come and drill and win new
- 10:38contracts and buy oil assets in order to try and stimulate
- 10:44economic growth. So there is, there are some
- 10:47signals that the people within Venezuela are keen on that and
- 10:51certainly there is a sense that the government hasn't run the
- 10:57oil asset, hasn't managed to bring some of the wealth that's
- 11:00in its land to its people. We talked about Chevron already,
- 11:04the US oil, John, already operating in Venezuela.
- 11:07But as Helia said in a joint venture, it's sort of not, you
- 11:09know, it's by no means what we understand as sort of
- 11:12capitalism. But are there signs from the US
- 11:15that other firms are heading there?
- 11:16Trump seemed to suggest that at the weekend.
- 11:18What are you hearing about that? Yeah, that's we've seen signs
- 11:21that other companies are interested.
- 11:23But again, the proof is in the pudding how much they're
- 11:25actually willing to invest and getting involved because it's
- 11:28been the graveyard of a lot of investors.
- 11:31We mentioned the nationalizations earlier, but if
- 11:33you look at China, they lent over $60 billion to Venezuela
- 11:38and they got very little oil. The default on, on the money I
- 11:43think Venezuela still owns owes China 10 to 12 billion.
- 11:47So they didn't succeed in sorting out the oil industry in
- 11:50Venezuela as you said, in partnership with the state owned
- 11:53company. So remains to be seen what model
- 11:56is actually going to be effective in.
- 11:58But when you talk about the nationalizations, you know,
- 12:00expropriations as, as it's being described, I mean, this is a
- 12:03highly risky proposition for any corporate looking to invest,
- 12:08isn't it? Just spell that out for us in
- 12:09general terms. Yeah, it is.
- 12:10I mean, I think as we've mentioned, the infrastructure,
- 12:13the corruption, all these sort of problems and yes, he's the.
- 12:16Brain drain. There's been, there's a huge
- 12:18amount of engineers, scientists who have left Venezuela.
- 12:24I mean, I think Ukraine is the only other country where more
- 12:26people have left than Venezuela. So yeah, the brain drain is
- 12:30real. Huge problems.
- 12:32And Cathy, you know, you could look at Iraq as a salient
- 12:36comparison because the the US invaded in 2003.
- 12:42And again, there was speculation it was really about the oil.
- 12:46Discuss. But it wasn't until 2008 that
- 12:50oil production increased, and it wasn't really until 2011 that
- 12:55you really saw oil supply ramp up massively.
- 13:01So these things are not, you know, easy.
- 13:04They're complicated. And you've also got
- 13:06constitutional problem here. As you said, at the moment, the
- 13:10Venezuelan constitution forbids foreign ownership.
- 13:13So you would need a change in the Venezuelan constitution to
- 13:17allow American companies to allow European companies to
- 13:22invest. And I think they would need some
- 13:25reassurance that the political landscape is going to be a bit
- 13:28more stable. When you've got civilians
- 13:31marauding the streets with weapons on motorbikes, that
- 13:33doesn't inspire confidence to most corporates, does it?
- 13:36And this is a fundamental contradiction at the heart of
- 13:38Trump's resource strategy, which is resources is a long term
- 13:41game. All of these projects are long
- 13:43term, take decades of investment.
- 13:47You know, does the US have that kind of continuity of policy
- 13:49that China has or patience and patience, right.
- 13:52And and this is the whole problem, like Greenland,
- 13:54Ukraine, it's going to take years for for projects to be
- 13:57developed. And can the US support
- 14:01throughout all those years or because Trump has a sort of
- 14:03fantasy of resource imperialism rather than actually being
- 14:07involved in the details and the reality.
- 14:09And he's also killing a lot of industries that need resources,
- 14:13such as clean energy industries. And these are the very
- 14:15industries that China dominates. And that's why China is securing
- 14:19a lot of Latin America's resources.
- 14:21So the US has a contradiction. There's a contradiction in his
- 14:24whole premise that I want oil prices to come down, and yet
- 14:28drill, baby, drill, those two things don't work within America
- 14:32itself. Not not to mention the fact that
- 14:35it doesn't get ourselves fossil fuels.
- 14:37But the shale industry in the US, you know, has a problem
- 14:41because if oil prices come down, American shale companies start
- 14:46to lose money. Well, I want to zoom out, and I
- 14:48was looking around to see if we used to have a globe in here.
- 14:51And I wanted to sort of like, you know, address the globe
- 14:53because it literally effects every corner of the world.
- 14:56What's happened in the last few days, doesn't it?
- 14:58So let's look at Russia because the plummeting oil prices that
- 15:01you were speaking about has an impact potentially on Russia's
- 15:04war in Ukraine, doesn't it? Because it's funding that from
- 15:08selling oil. So if oil prices are plummeting,
- 15:10it could undercut Russia's success in Ukraine, couldn't it?
- 15:13Yeah, I mean, there's one argument that I think Oleg
- 15:16Deripaska I saw posted. The Russian oligarch.
- 15:20That's right, yeah, that US could now and if you add up
- 15:22Canada, Guyana, Brazil, you know, US has a greater share of
- 15:28the globe's oil supply with Venezuela.
- 15:30So yeah, could they could they influence prices and and damage
- 15:33Russia? I don't know.
- 15:35Again, as we've, we've talked about on this podcast,
- 15:37Venezuela's oil production is, is, is small at the moment, you
- 15:40know, million barrels a day or, or something around that.
- 15:43So we need, as we said, it takes years to kind of boost the
- 15:45industry. So it remains to be seen, you
- 15:48know, what kind of control the US could have.
- 15:51But no doubt the US is a fossil fuel power, is becoming a
- 15:55greater fossil fuel oil power. But is that the right game to be
- 16:00in? That's my question.
- 16:01You know, and China's the opposite side.
- 16:02It's a clean energy superpower and you've got to look at what
- 16:05investors are are thinking and shares of clean energy companies
- 16:09have actually done well over Trump over the last 12.
- 16:11Months, yeah, but is that about to change?
- 16:12If you've got this potential glut of oil and cheaper oil, is
- 16:18that going to? For example, here we hear a lot
- 16:20of pressure on the government in the UK about their net zero
- 16:24drive and their push for renewables.
- 16:26Are the opposition going to start saying we should take
- 16:28advantage of this glut of cheap oil?
- 16:32Yes, I, I think outside China could well change and we've seen
- 16:35backlash, we've seen a lot of questioning of net 0 targets
- 16:38unpopularity. So yes, I think it could.
- 16:41But China is, again is the big consumer of all resources and
- 16:45all commodities and they have a firm strategy for electric
- 16:48vehicles, for moving off oil. They don't want to rely on oil
- 16:51imports, especially not in the current environment.
- 16:54So I think that is pretty certain and that's going to be
- 16:58the direction China takes, which will impact all commodities.
- 17:02Look, cheaper oil is good for consumers.
- 17:05It's good for consumers in the US, which Donald Trump is very
- 17:08keen on. It's very important for him.
- 17:10And the whole affordability issue in the US, it's good for
- 17:14consumers in the UK. The the question is, you know,
- 17:19what does it mean in terms of the move to green energy?
- 17:23Does it disincentivize our move away from fossil fuels?
- 17:27But also the irony of the fact that it actually hurts US
- 17:32producers. And I think that is quite
- 17:34interesting. You were talking about Russia.
- 17:37Lower oil price hurts Iran, it hurts Russia.
- 17:41Taking away Venezuelan oil won't damage China, but Venezuelan 80%
- 17:47of the Venezuelan and oil now goes to China so although.
- 17:50Trump has made noises about, you know, they'll get all the oil
- 17:53They're they're currently buying from Venezuela.
- 17:55And we saw these what they called dark tankers, you know,
- 17:58ghost. Tankers.
- 17:59Ghost tankers. Exactly.
- 18:00Ghost tankers. Dark mode sailing out of.
- 18:03I think that that point is interesting because the bigger
- 18:06issue here is, is Trump sort of dividing the world up into
- 18:09spheres of influence? Are we going to see a big grand
- 18:12bargain where it's like you get out of Latin America, but you
- 18:15can have the Pacific or you, you know, Southeast Asia, Russia
- 18:18can, you know, And that's the bigger question in my mind.
- 18:21It's total. Imperialist vibes, isn't it?
- 18:23Yes, it's a throwback to dividing up up the world.
- 18:26Because you heard Marco Rubio on the weekend saying again, we're
- 18:29not going to allow our adversaries to create a base in
- 18:34the Western Hemisphere. I mean, people like Chevron have
- 18:37said for years, this hasn't happened.
- 18:39Actually, China hasn't created a base in Venezuela.
- 18:42They haven't really capitalized on the fact that the US
- 18:46operators have have disappeared. But obviously it helps the
- 18:50narrative. Maybe you don't need to have a
- 18:52complete invasion of American companies in order to control
- 18:57the tap. It makes Chinese teapot
- 18:59refineries have to pay more for oil.
- 19:03That helps US strategic intentions and it puts pressure
- 19:08on other countries. But it's a new colonialism,
- 19:10isn't it? Yeah, But I think the biggest
- 19:12issue in my mind is these Latin American countries, the the
- 19:15reason why China was so successful in Latin.
- 19:17These countries are new, essentially neutral.
- 19:21A country like Chile, China is their biggest export market.
- 19:24They don't want to upset China and they're not picking sides.
- 19:29And this is the issue is, are these countries going to sign up
- 19:32to this new, you know, Monroe Doctrine, you know, are they
- 19:36willing to alienate and push back against China?
- 19:38I just don't think so because China is the source of trade but
- 19:43there's a non. Buyer like, I mean, think of
- 19:45their agriculture at the moment. Think of soybeans.
- 19:47We've talked about on this show, soybeans and American farmers,
- 19:50Brazil, Argentina, huge soybean kind of growers and they all
- 19:56sell it to China. So the China's position in Latin
- 19:59America, despite all of Trump's, you know, cries to the contrary,
- 20:03is very powerful. Well, let's talk about we've
- 20:06talked about colonialism and imperialism.
- 20:08So let's look at where this goes next because Trump has been
- 20:14clear today that Greenland is potentially in his sights.
- 20:17He said it before, but he said it with new clarity today.
- 20:21He's also talked about Cuba, even Mexico, which is bizarre
- 20:26because Mexico and the US are jointly hosting the World Cup.
- 20:29So how does that work? And how much of this is serious?
- 20:31What's your answer to How serious is he about Greenland,
- 20:34for example? Well, I think we've been told to
- 20:36take him out of his word, right? And we should actually believe
- 20:39what he says. And as we can see from from the
- 20:41action that was initiated, I think, yeah, we should be, we
- 20:45should be concerned. And we saw Denmark, I think put
- 20:46out a strong, strong statement. So, so, so we should be
- 20:51concerned, I mean, I think. Enough now, they said, didn't
- 20:53they? It was in sort of Trump esque
- 20:55terms, which is obviously the way that people, world leaders
- 20:58think they have to talk to Trump these days.
- 21:00Yeah. But I think you know Greenland,
- 21:01the resource angle is spurious right there.
- 21:03Yes, there are resources, but again, I don't like this the
- 21:06reserves term that we've talked about, you know, yes, may maybe
- 21:09resources, but at what price to get out, what kind of CapEx,
- 21:13who's who's going to spend the money?
- 21:15Well, is that is that tricky to to?
- 21:16It's really tricky to get to the resource beneath Greenland.
- 21:19Yeah, quality of the raw success.
- 21:20You know, there's lots of problems.
- 21:22Not that you know you would seize Greenland and tomorrow be
- 21:24a big producer of rare earths. Shipping lanes as well with
- 21:28Greenland as. Well, yes, it's obviously a
- 21:29strategic angles, but a big, big, big question is if he goes
- 21:32to Greenland. About colonialism.
- 21:35Yeah, what would Europe do? This could be a test of
- 21:37Europe's, you know. Well, Europe has been.
- 21:41Europe's metal. Europe's metal has been limp, to
- 21:45say the least, since the attack happened, hasn't it?
- 21:48So where in the spheres of influence?
- 21:51We've talked about China, we've talked about America, we've
- 21:54mentioned Russia. That's how it's sort of carved
- 21:57up, isn't it? Do you want to add anyone else
- 21:59into that? I, I think Europe is in a tricky
- 22:01situation because it, it, you know, it's a big market for, for
- 22:04China. Does it push back against,
- 22:06against China risk, risk upsetting China.
- 22:09It's now the US, we saw from the national security strategy, the
- 22:13US really down on Europe saying Europe is, you know, facing huge
- 22:18cultural problems. So US is also is becoming
- 22:21antagonistic to Europe. So where does, where does Europe
- 22:25go? I I think the only answer is
- 22:29greater European unity, right and and greater resolve, you
- 22:33know, within Europe. Let's end with asking the
- 22:35question that I've been asking myself all weekend and asking
- 22:38every guest I get on the program.
- 22:40What next? What is your prediction in terms
- 22:42of what Donald Trump does next in Venezuela, but beyond
- 22:46Venezuela too? And how does this just build a
- 22:50picture of this new era of resource nationalism, resort
- 22:55colonialism, new imperialism, whatever you want to call it,
- 22:58your terminology? What are what are we looking at
- 23:00next? Yeah.
- 23:01So I mean, Venezuela seems incredibly uncertain from what I
- 23:03read. Again, I'm not obviously there,
- 23:05but what actually is the US going to do to to to run the
- 23:09place? I mean, he initially said we're
- 23:10going to run it. And then I think the State
- 23:12Department sort of cooled that down.
- 23:14What are they actually gonna do? And the similar, you mentioned
- 23:17Iraq earlier, but, you know, it went into Iraq, but then there
- 23:20was no plan right for for Day 2 or actually running the country.
- 23:22And it was chaos. And we could still see boots on
- 23:25the ground in Venezuela. That has not been ruled.
- 23:26Out hasn't ruled that out. So how What are they actually
- 23:29gonna do? Are they gonna run the country?
- 23:31Because, you know, they've had this very successful mission?
- 23:35That's the kind of thing Trump likes, He said.
- 23:37It was like watching TV. But to your point that the you
- 23:40know the concentration span isn't there for the long term,
- 23:43these are. That's the problem sugar hit and
- 23:45that's that's my answer to your question about the whole
- 23:48strategy is what follow the money, right.
- 23:50Yes, you've got what he wants Greenland and all these other
- 23:53places. Is the money from from U.S.
- 23:56companies actually going to follow and actually invest in
- 23:59these? Countries this weekend, Who's an
- 24:02energy analyst said said that they think that it would cost
- 24:06$110 billion in order to get Venezuelan production to where
- 24:11it was just 10 years ago. That's huge, The money for
- 24:15rebuilding Gaza, rebuilding Ukraine.
- 24:17The US has got fingers in all. These pies exactly for U.S.
- 24:20companies to actually spend that money when the climate is
- 24:24uncertain where the political landscapes are in certain not
- 24:27just in Venezuela by the way, but in the US because what
- 24:30happens when Trump in three years time is no longer in
- 24:34office and. What would you call this new era
- 24:36we're in? Then?
- 24:37Ioffer you various terminologies.
- 24:38What would you go? For I think it's a scramble for
- 24:40resources against the backdrop of a tested energy transition,
- 24:45which on the one hand, China is leading and, and the US is is
- 24:48fighting against. But just to the earlier point, I
- 24:51think the difference, the US in many ways is trying to do a
- 24:53China, but the difference is the companies still operate As for
- 24:57profit corporates. Chinese companies can be told to
- 25:00go in and make losses and and invest and.
- 25:02Suck it. Up.
- 25:03But U.S. companies just can't do that.
- 25:05So how will the corporate side of America follow Trump's
- 25:08policies? As I say, follow the money.
- 25:10Are they actually going to back his broader strategy?
- 25:14Helia Henry, thank you both very much.
- 25:17That is it for this episode of The FORECAST.
- 25:19Until next time, goodbye.