Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / CFP Semifinals Preview | Picks, Betting Odds & Game Predictions

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CFP Semifinals Preview | Picks, Betting Odds & Game Predictions · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:03
  Hello everybody. Welcome to Targeting Winners.
• 0:05
  Thank you for listening on Spotify and Apple Podcast.
• 0:09
  Please like and subscribe to our channel on YouTube, leave a
• 0:13
  comment, leave a rating five stars.
• 0:15
  We really appreciate it. And today I am, as always,
• 0:18
  joined with Darren and Peter. Darren, give us a weather
• 0:23
  update. Another freezing rain outbreak
• 0:27
  on on top of an inch and 1/2 or so of snow.
• 0:31
  God, I hate this state so much. And you guys, I say you guys are
• 0:38
  from around here. You know what exactly what I'm
• 0:41
  talking about, but literally 6:00 AM 6/15, I'm out there, the
• 0:46
  plow comes by and you know when they come down the street like
• 0:48
  two or three times, it's like a foot of just big frozen.
• 0:52
  Making my back hurt already. Just listen to.
• 0:55
  You it's like. Just the.
• 0:58
  Worst and then followed that up with a dentist appointment, then
• 1:01
  a trip to motor vehicle So. Which is the worst of the three?
• 1:04
  That that's a That's a good pole.
• 1:07
  That's three shitty things. What's the worst of the three?
• 1:11
  Oh, you. Well, a quick little story about
• 1:13
  the the motor vehicle trip. So, you know, my son is going to
• 1:16
  school for physical therapy. He's got his last semester
• 1:19
  coming up and they're taking a trip to Anaheim for something
• 1:23
  school related. So we're like, all right, well,
• 1:26
  we got to get you a real ID, otherwise you can't get on a
• 1:28
  plane. So we find his birth
• 1:30
  certificate, the Social Security card, something current with the
• 1:32
  address on it. We get some motor vehicles
• 1:35
  today. We fill out a form, we wait 45
• 1:37
  minutes. We get in line delays like, can
• 1:39
  I see your license? My son hands her his license.
• 1:42
  She's like, you already have a real ID.
• 1:43
  I'm like what? The fuck?
• 1:48
  Surprise so. So I think because at the time
• 1:51
  then they were instituting it, you know, he was 17, he was
• 1:54
  getting his permit. It switched over to a license, I
• 1:56
  think she said. Because, you know, we knew this
• 1:58
  was going to happen. Everybody that would, yeah, we
• 2:01
  just gave him real IDs. And I was like, and The thing
• 2:04
  is, I'm in line with him and I'm like, yeah, your license have to
• 2:07
  have this star on it. Now, did we think either of us
• 2:09
  would look at his license while we were in line?
• 2:11
  No, I got all the way out. She's like, yeah, you already
• 2:14
  have that. I'm like, just kill me.
• 2:16
  Just just so. Yeah, so that.
• 2:19
  So if I'm a little surlier than normal, I apologize.
• 2:25
  And as you heard, we're also joined by Pete from El Playa de
• 2:28
  Mexico, Quienis mas Majo Pedro or Ricardo Montalban.
• 2:32
  What is up, Pedro? What's up?
• 2:34
  How we doing that? Very good.
• 2:35
  It's 79° right now. It's beautiful.
• 2:38
  It's everything is good. So warmer than here.
• 2:40
  How dare you? Yeah.
• 2:42
  Hey, you know, all I care is that the Buckeyes went down and
• 2:46
  we got four teams left and I'm kind of excited about what's
• 2:49
  left here, so. And if you're watching YouTube,
• 2:52
  you can tell by the graphic on here we're talking about the
• 2:54
  semifinals. But first we got some other
• 2:58
  things to come, some house thing to do here.
• 3:00
  Coming up February 12th at 7:00, we will be joined on a live
• 3:05
  stream on YouTube by Mark Haynes from Coach's Hot Seat.
• 3:08
  You'll be answering your coaching questions, so if you
• 3:13
  want your questions answered, you can ask them during the live
• 3:15
  stream or you can e-mail us at cfbdudes@yahoo.com.
• 3:19
  For those of you who listen and don't watch on YouTube, that's
• 3:22
  the best Ave. for you. We will be replaying the live
• 3:24
  stream as always on the Spotify and all the Apple things.
• 3:31
  Well, guys, I thought it'd be a busy episode for Mark and we had
• 3:34
  had a pretty active coaching offseason. 32 of them, I believe
• 3:40
  that last count, which is a lot that's the most in quite some
• 3:45
  time. But you know, that's college
• 3:48
  football, man. Everybody's looking for the
• 3:50
  better opportunity, maybe trying to get into the NFL.
• 3:53
  And it's it's I can't. I mean, usually I keep up with
• 3:56
  it. I'm just like, I'll just wait a
• 3:58
  week and then read an article and just see where everything's
• 4:01
  at. I think we're we're OK for now.
• 4:04
  Every spot is currently full as we sit here.
• 4:08
  But, you know, I think a lot of these coordinators are going to
• 4:11
  get filled in. But all the head coaches are
• 4:12
  set. You know, school is starting for
• 4:14
  some of these programs. So I think all that stuff kind
• 4:17
  of needs to be filled and ready to roll.
• 4:20
  But as we've seen sleep with a staffer breaking to somebody's
• 4:25
  house with a butter knife, God knows what could happen.
• 4:28
  It wouldn't surprise any of us if there was literally another
• 4:31
  opening somewhere. No?
• 4:34
  But for now, yes, I, I did reach out to Mark.
• 4:36
  He's excited. He's ready to roll.
• 4:37
  I sent him the link, so hopefully he will share that in
• 4:40
  his weekly newsletter. But yeah, bring your coaching
• 4:43
  questions, man 'cause that's the guy that can answer him.
• 4:45
  Try to stump him. Let's see if we can have
• 4:47
  something like ask about the special teams coordinator for
• 4:51
  UTEP or something. He probably knows, but that'll
• 4:54
  be something to see if he's like the Mel Kiper of of the show.
• 4:57
  He is, except he makes sense and he's got better hair, so.
• 5:01
  Yeah. You know, I, I do have a
• 5:04
  question if there's any Wolverines listening to this.
• 5:06
  So obviously we have a really good coach, right?
• 5:09
  We're happy with the coach we hired.
• 5:10
  But let's just proxy this for a second.
• 5:14
  John Harbaugh just became available like yesterday.
• 5:18
  If you could, if you could horse trade and get John, would you
• 5:23
  make that trade 'cause that's a really interesting discussion
• 5:27
  because I really like the coach we have.
• 5:29
  But it's John Harbaugh who has obviously expressed interest in
• 5:33
  being at Michigan in the past. Obviously Jim has been there.
• 5:37
  It's a family thing. If you can make the trade right
• 5:41
  now, would you do it? I think it's an interesting
• 5:44
  question. I think if you're in Michigan,
• 5:46
  why wouldn't you? I mean.
• 5:47
  Yeah, it's John, right I. Mean, yeah, I mean.
• 5:50
  How much younger is he than Whittingham?
• 5:52
  Well, I mean, Whittingham's a great coach, so that's what I'm
• 5:54
  saying. I mean, it's a it's an
• 5:56
  interesting question in the sense that we already have a
• 5:58
  really freaking good coach who retained all of our young
• 6:02
  talent. So clearly a really good coach.
• 6:06
  So that's an interesting question.
• 6:10
  I think he stays in the NFL, but.
• 6:13
  Oh, he will. He will.
• 6:14
  I mean, but that's because the Michigan job is gone.
• 6:16
  But if the Michigan job is open, it'd be different.
• 6:19
  And I think that's. Keep it all in the family, I
• 6:20
  guess. Yeah.
• 6:23
  I mean, he's the only Harbaugh. He's the only Harbaugh currently
• 6:26
  welcome to back at Michigan, I believe, per the end of the day.
• 6:30
  But yeah, I mean he. Would definitely win.
• 6:33
  Yeah, if Freeman, yeah, if he wanted to swim Marcus Freeman
• 6:35
  with John Harbaugh, I wouldn't be against that.
• 6:37
  And I love Marcus Freeman. I think he's doing a great job.
• 6:40
  But let's face it, it's probably not going to be too much longer
• 6:43
  for He's in the NFL, so. Yeah.
• 6:47
  All right. And also, now we got that out of
• 6:48
  the way. We had the transfer portal
• 6:50
  opened up January 2nd. I believe it closes on the 16th.
• 6:55
  And we had some news today. Damon Williams signs a contract
• 6:59
  two or three days ago and then says, hey, what if I didn't?
• 7:04
  And besides, you have to go somewhere else.
• 7:08
  Darren, you're up with the Transfer Portal madness.
• 7:11
  What you got here? Dude, there is just so much
• 7:14
  craziness going on. I think they said like the first
• 7:16
  day like over 4500 players went in and then there was like
• 7:20
  another 3000 or something the next day.
• 7:23
  It's just, I mean, you can't even like I took a list of maybe
• 7:26
  like some of the top 152025 players out there and like most
• 7:30
  of these have already committed, but I mean, there are still some
• 7:34
  big I I don't know, all right, the biggest one, which I don't
• 7:37
  understand. I don't know if this is a great
• 7:38
  one, but if you guys have any thoughts on this, Brendan Sarsby
• 7:40
  to Texas Tech. I mean, it's not bad, but like
• 7:47
  you're, you're throwing that kind of money around.
• 7:49
  I think I would rather get Sam Levitt or you know.
• 7:54
  Guys, you're assuming it's about the money.
• 7:56
  I'm sure Sarsby went to Texas Tech and loved the facilities
• 8:01
  and the campus. I'm sure he loves wherever the
• 8:04
  hell Texas Tech is located. Where, where?
• 8:07
  Where are they? Are they in?
• 8:08
  Are they in San Antonio or Lubbock?
• 8:10
  Where? Lubbock, Right.
• 8:11
  Learn Lubbock. Yeah.
• 8:13
  He loved the town. It's a busy bump in town and
• 8:16
  that's why he went. It had nothing to do with the
• 8:17
  5,000,000 bucks. Come on.
• 8:19
  Yeah, it's 5 mil. I mean, we're Sam Levitt is
• 8:22
  still out there. I mean, I'm thinking Sam is
• 8:24
  going, Sam is going to LSU. He he's he, I I would think
• 8:28
  that's where he's going. So I'm not sure they had chance
• 8:31
  at Sam, but if I had a choice, I would take Sam.
• 8:34
  But yeah, Brandon, is that that big of a deal for fight?
• 8:37
  I don't know. I.
• 8:38
  Agree it is. And the thing with demand when
• 8:41
  he entered, he's got a do not contact act, which means he
• 8:43
  knows where he's going. So like, you know, I mean, if
• 8:49
  Sam, you know, Stan Leavitt apparently already went to
• 8:51
  Kentucky, although I don't know why you would you would go
• 8:53
  there. Well, actually, no, that's
• 8:56
  that's unfair. That's that's an incorrect
• 8:58
  statement. Their new head coaches, the OC
• 9:00
  for Oregon. And last I checked, he did well
• 9:03
  with Bonex, Dylan Gabriel and Dante Moore.
• 9:06
  So maybe that is that's fair. That's a all right.
• 9:08
  So bad on me for bringing that up.
• 9:10
  I'm sure. But I mean 5.
• 9:11
  Million too. I mean it's.
• 9:13
  Well, regardless, The thing is, that guy could make you a pro
• 9:17
  quarterback. Yeah, because he had done.
• 9:21
  Multiple times, yes. Where he's going to be doing
• 9:23
  much better than 5 million, should somebody go there and
• 9:26
  take advantage of what that guy can do?
• 9:28
  So it makes sense. Yeah, from yeah, absolutely.
• 9:31
  Makes sense, yeah. But I mean, some of the things
• 9:34
  that we figured look like, I mean, Indiana looks like the big
• 9:37
  winner so far. They got Josh Hoover from TCU,
• 9:40
  They picked up Nick Marsh, the wide receiver.
• 9:42
  I mean, they're, you know, they're already rolling and
• 9:46
  they're just already look like they're already rolling well
• 9:47
  into 2026 Iowa State. How bad do we feel for Iowa
• 9:53
  State? They've lost 19 people at last
• 9:56
  count just to Penn State following Matt Campbell.
• 10:01
  Who took the? Penn State coaching job, but I
• 10:03
  mean, as Iowa State even made them feel the team at this
• 10:05
  point, they've got to be a fade for 2026, I would think.
• 10:11
  Right. Yeah, I mean, it's just, you
• 10:13
  know, and there's some some minor quarterbacks that have
• 10:15
  been like Aiden Childs, Pete's favorite guy, who can't seem to
• 10:19
  lead an offense. He's going to Northwestern.
• 10:20
  So that that that ought to just bloom wonderfully.
• 10:24
  Colton Joseph, the Old Dominion guy, he's at Wisconsin.
• 10:27
  I don't know, how many years have we been sitting here
• 10:29
  waiting for Wisconsin to actually learn how to pass a
• 10:30
  ball? Maybe, maybe maybe they have
• 10:33
  somebody that can finally do that.
• 10:36
  Austin Simmons, the Ole Miss QB who lost his job a couple games
• 10:39
  in 'cause he got hurt. He's at Missouri now, you know,
• 10:44
  but you still got like some other non quarterbacks.
• 10:46
  I think you got Cam Coleman, the Auburn wide receiver, probably
• 10:48
  the best non QB still out there. We're not sure where he's going.
• 10:52
  But I mean, any, any move you guys think that that that you
• 10:56
  saw that was just like, Yep, that might be a bet on team for
• 10:59
  me in 2026. Not Florida State.
• 11:02
  Yeah, I got the the kid from Auburn who went to Oklahoma
• 11:05
  first or whatever. I I put a little thing together
• 11:07
  for FSU there. There we go.
• 11:10
  We're doomed. So we had 30 players leave.
• 11:12
  The entire wide receiver room is going to be new next year, I
• 11:14
  guess everyone left. So defense every level.
• 11:19
  And so what's the kid's name in Auburn that they got?
• 11:25
  Did they get they got Ashton Daniels didn't.
• 11:27
  They yeah, that. Kid Ashton's, yeah, that's
• 11:29
  probably not great. Although I did say didn't they
• 11:32
  host DJ Lagway as well the other day I think?
• 11:35
  I think he's going to Virginia. I think it's the big yeah.
• 11:39
  I saw that earlier today. I think, oh, OK.
• 11:41
  That's new. I think Damon Williams is going
• 11:42
  to LSU. That's what they were saying on
• 11:44
  Sports Center. I'm pretty sure pretty sure
• 11:48
  Diego Papi is going to be playing in the college till he's
• 11:50
  like 45. So yeah, that that's.
• 11:52
  Going Was he coming back again next year?
• 11:54
  No, he's. Suing so he'll.
• 11:55
  Probably he says he he said the bowl game was his last game, but
• 11:59
  I guess from his lawsuit he technically does have another
• 12:02
  year. Yeah, he'll, he'll keep doing
• 12:04
  that. He supposedly said that he's, I
• 12:07
  mean, he's done so much damage with his post Heisman nonsense.
• 12:10
  I mean. Nonsense.
• 12:12
  Yeah, it's just like, bro, you, you could probably come back.
• 12:15
  You're not going to make any money in the NFL with that
• 12:17
  attitude. They're they're probably all
• 12:18
  passing on you until like the seventh round.
• 12:20
  But yeah, but somebody. Will pay them to come.
• 12:22
  Back, Oh, probably, I'm just going to say this Yeah, that
• 12:26
  could be, I'm just going to say this.
• 12:28
  The one team that actually interests me a little and I
• 12:32
  believe their schedule sucks. So I, I don't know if I'm going
• 12:34
  to back this team or not, but I'm looking at Auburn because,
• 12:38
  you know, we talk about continuity from one year to the
• 12:41
  next. Well, the South Florida head
• 12:43
  coach, the South Florida offense coordinator and the South
• 12:46
  Florida quarterback, we're all on Auburn right now.
• 12:50
  So, and let's face it, Auburn, as much as we ragged them
• 12:53
  offensively, defensively they were really good.
• 12:56
  And that's the one coordinator they retained, they kept DJ
• 12:59
  Durkin. So I'm gonna that Auburn Baylor
• 13:03
  game in Week 1. I am going to be watching that
• 13:07
  from start to finish 'cause I'm dying to see what Auburn looks
• 13:10
  like. Hey, how about my Wolverines?
• 13:12
  I mean, we we have an actual coaching staff now who can coach
• 13:15
  up players. We retain all of our young
• 13:17
  talent and brought another talent, so everything I've been
• 13:21
  bitching about for the last year, I can't bitch about it
• 13:24
  anymore. So I want to see what happens.
• 13:27
  I want to see what these guys can do with the talent we have.
• 13:30
  So I'm excited about. This.
• 13:31
  Yeah, possibly I want to see. What happens?
• 13:35
  Sleeper to make the Big 10 title game.
• 13:37
  Man, if Dante Moore goes pro, you know, Ohio State.
• 13:40
  Caleb Downs just said he's entering the draft today.
• 13:42
  Julian's saying not like he played super good.
• 13:45
  I mean, if you're assuming Indiana's already going to be
• 13:47
  playing in it, they got to play somebody.
• 13:51
  Michigan's not a bad option, I agree with that.
• 13:56
  Well, should we move on to the semi finals?
• 13:58
  Sure. All right.
• 14:01
  Well, we got our first game here in Miami against Ole Miss.
• 14:04
  I think we're looking at the some of the bets we had this
• 14:08
  week. I think we're going to have a
• 14:09
  disagreement on this one. So Pete, if you want to start,
• 14:12
  we'll start with you for Miami and Ole Miss.
• 14:15
  Sure. I mean, so first of all, thank
• 14:18
  you for beating the Buckeyes. This is good.
• 14:22
  Yeah. So we were talking about it
• 14:24
  before we started here, right? It's it's interesting that Lane
• 14:27
  Kiffin has been trying to build a national championship team for
• 14:30
  a while, and I think he might have done it.
• 14:33
  I mean, this is a team that could potentially do it.
• 14:36
  They looked really good last week.
• 14:40
  So, yeah, I like how they look. I I I like how this team plays
• 14:45
  tempo. You know, obviously Miami looked
• 14:48
  really good, right. So I, I can't walk away from
• 14:51
  that team, but you know, Miami's sorry Ole misses red zone
• 14:56
  defense is is is good and I think that will play out in this
• 15:00
  game. I think Miami has been
• 15:03
  struggling late against teams that win first down and stay
• 15:08
  ahead of the schedule, which I think we're going to see here.
• 15:10
  So I like what I see again in this matchup.
• 15:13
  So I'm kind of leaning toward taking Ole Miss in the points
• 15:20
  and taking the under. I think we're going to see in
• 15:24
  both of these games, I'm prefacing a little bit, you
• 15:27
  know, these are two semi final games.
• 15:28
  I think you're going to be a little conservative, especially
• 15:32
  early on. So I think we're going to see
• 15:35
  suppression of point scoring in both of these games.
• 15:37
  This one not any different. So I do like the unders here in
• 15:44
  this game and I do like the point, especially with that
• 15:48
  hook, right, If it were three, make me a little nervous.
• 15:52
  I like that hook here. So I like Ole Miss and the hook
• 15:55
  3 1/2. So I'm taking Ole Miss and the 3
• 15:57
  1/2 and I'm taking the under in this game.
• 16:01
  I just like the way Ole Miss is playing.
• 16:03
  I honestly did not expect them to win this past week and the
• 16:06
  way they played, they've converted me a little bit.
• 16:09
  I like the way they played a lot.
• 16:10
  So that's my bet here. I got two of them, so Ole Miss
• 16:14
  plus 3 1/2 and the under. And the under, well, I think we
• 16:20
  agree on the under basically. I on the other hand, I think Ole
• 16:24
  Miss is going to get trucked after watching this game.
• 16:29
  I think that pass rush from Miami is the real deal #4 and
• 16:34
  Isadora, what's his name? Those I don't think Ole Miss
• 16:37
  isn't going to know what hit them.
• 16:39
  They run the ball. Well, I think they're going to
• 16:41
  do that and I'm going to let Carson Beck, you know, beat
• 16:44
  them. I'm thinking I originally
• 16:46
  thought it was going to be like up there like 27 to 20, but I'm
• 16:49
  thinking it's going to be more like, you know, 34 to 10 maybe
• 16:51
  if they're lucky. It's hard for me to say this.
• 16:55
  I can't stand Miami. I can make it official.
• 16:59
  They're back there. So once I say they're back,
• 17:03
  they're back my. God, Tim said.
• 17:05
  Miami's back. Oh, put that on the clock.
• 17:08
  That's never. What's worse is that this isn't
• 17:11
  like the flashy Miami, this is like the responsible Miami.
• 17:15
  It's like, you know, seeing your ex like, you know, take up yoga
• 17:19
  and like lose 30 lbs learns how to budget a wallet that's like,
• 17:22
  you know, that's horrible. So.
• 17:24
  What about crystal ball? Crystal ball is not going to do
• 17:26
  a crystal ball somewhere here. It doesn't matter.
• 17:29
  This is what I've been telling for the last couple years.
• 17:31
  Eventually he's going to have a team with enough talent that not
• 17:35
  even he can mess it up. Like there's nothing he could
• 17:37
  do. I mean, short of punting on 2nd
• 17:40
  down or something. I I don't see he's got, they're
• 17:45
  just too damn good right now. That kid, that Tony kid,
• 17:49
  Malachi, I mean that he's going to have a touchdown pass in this
• 17:53
  game too. I think he might have more TV
• 17:54
  passes in this game than back. I just see the defense shutting
• 17:58
  down Ole Miss and then Miami's going to have a home game for
• 18:03
  the championship. And they're, you know, depending
• 18:07
  who they're playing there, they're probably going to win
• 18:08
  that too. And my life will be hell.
• 18:10
  So but. Here for you.
• 18:13
  Yeah, it's, it's been a rough year.
• 18:15
  The football gods don't want me to have nice things.
• 18:17
  I've been saying that for a while.
• 18:18
  But you know, Ole Miss is going to try to speed the game up and
• 18:21
  Miami is going to be like, now we're good, we're good, we're
• 18:23
  good, just like this. So yeah, I don't know, Darren,
• 18:27
  if you have any thoughts on this one, but I got Ole Miss getting
• 18:30
  trucked. I went back and forth on this
• 18:32
  game probably a half a dozen times.
• 18:34
  Like I looked at Miami and I'm like, yeah, that defense is
• 18:38
  really, really good. Ole Miss has not seen a defense
• 18:41
  like this and in their two games so far.
• 18:43
  And then I look at Ole Miss, I'm like, wow, Miami's defense
• 18:46
  hasn't seen an offense like this in their two games so far
• 18:49
  either. So, you know, I looked at Miami.
• 18:52
  Yeah, you're right, Malachi, Tony's legit.
• 18:54
  I think it's going to be a huge Mark Fletcher game.
• 18:56
  If you're in a state where player props are a thing, I
• 18:59
  would look at over his rush total.
• 19:02
  But I mean, I still can't trust Carson Beck.
• 19:05
  I mean, in the two games they've played.
• 19:08
  Oh, yeah, OK Texas A&M and Ohio State, both excellent defensive
• 19:11
  teams. And you haven't thrown for more
• 19:12
  than 138 yards either time. So, I mean, you know, at some
• 19:16
  point, he's going to have to be relied on to make some plays
• 19:19
  and, you know, outside of some short passes and, you know, he
• 19:22
  hasn't really done that much. So, yeah, I wasn't really sure
• 19:25
  where to go with Miami. And again, Ole Miss, great.
• 19:28
  You. You played great against
• 19:30
  Georgia. Trinidad Chambliss Looks like
• 19:32
  he's playing on Madden at this point in the season.
• 19:37
  But then again, you know, Georgia, I thought Georgia's
• 19:40
  defense was going to continue to improve.
• 19:42
  This dude shredded them. I mean, my God, he made them
• 19:45
  look like, you know, Georgia never played defense before.
• 19:49
  So, you know, I don't know what to expect from this game.
• 19:52
  So. And I was talking to you guys
• 19:54
  about this or before we started. Yeah.
• 19:56
  We always say, yeah, we're we're fans first.
• 20:00
  I think I'm I'm gonna watch this one as a fan.
• 20:02
  I'm not a Carson Beck guy, I'm not a crystal ball guy, I'm not
• 20:05
  a the you guy. And the fan in me wants to see
• 20:11
  Kiffin kind of get it stuck to him.
• 20:14
  I mean, dude left. Oh, I wanna make a national
• 20:16
  championship team. Dude, you could have one and you
• 20:19
  bolted. So still getting paid though.
• 20:23
  Yeah, that's yeah. Every time they win he gets more
• 20:25
  and more money, which just seems ridiculous.
• 20:28
  I mean, you bolt mid season, you you should not be entitled to
• 20:31
  that, but he is. But yeah, the fan in me wants to
• 20:35
  see Ole Miss win and move on. The better in me always says
• 20:39
  defense wins championships and I give the huge AS to Miami there.
• 20:44
  So I'm not going to stress out tomorrow night about this one.
• 20:48
  I will listen to you 2 stress back and forth in our little
• 20:51
  group chat and I will probably blocking both of you midway
• 20:56
  through the third quarter. I have no play on this so.
• 21:02
  Looking at Miami, I'm getting like those old Raven teams by
• 21:05
  vibes, you know, like you know, they won with Trent Gilfer.
• 21:07
  You know, that's how good the team they are.
• 21:10
  They had Trent Gilfer and they still won.
• 21:12
  You know they have Carson back and they're still going to win.
• 21:14
  I'm not going to stress his bet too much.
• 21:16
  That's going to suck that Miami's going to win, but I
• 21:19
  think it's over midway through the third.
• 21:20
  I think they put the back well could very.
• 21:23
  Well, could. Let it go.
• 21:24
  I just don't. I don't see Miami letting Ole
• 21:28
  Miss go up and down the field on them like that.
• 21:30
  So, but we shall see. That's why they play the games.
• 21:35
  So all right, and no final thoughts.
• 21:37
  We'll move on to Friday night. Oregon, Indiana.
• 21:41
  It's going to be a shootout for this one looks like.
• 21:45
  Darren, let's start with you on this game.
• 21:47
  What are you thinking? Yeah, I don't know if if I see a
• 21:51
  shootout here. I did.
• 21:53
  This was my only bet. I did lay the 3 1/2 with Indiana
• 21:56
  and and for a couple reasons. The good thing about this is we
• 21:59
  do actually have a a data point that we can look back at.
• 22:02
  We all remember Indiana going into Oregon and coming out with
• 22:05
  a 30 to 20 victory. Checking the box score, really
• 22:10
  nothing kind of jumped out to me.
• 22:13
  Turnovers 2 to one. Neither quarterback really set
• 22:16
  the world on fire. I mean Mendoza barely broke 200
• 22:19
  yards neither run game. Surprised they didn't do
• 22:22
  anything either. I think Indiana only averaged
• 22:24
  like 3 yards carry and Oregon's was actually less than that.
• 22:28
  But two things I like about Indiana in this match up.
• 22:31
  And I know Pete, I, I know you disagree with me and that's
• 22:34
  totally cool. I, I love when, when the
• 22:36
  disagreements happen here. But you got to remember Indiana,
• 22:39
  they won that game by 10. But you know, 7 of Oregon's
• 22:42
  points came on a pick 6. So you take that away.
• 22:45
  I mean, Indiana really did kind of corral Dante Moore in the
• 22:49
  Oregon offense. He was, Dante Moore was sacked 6
• 22:52
  times in this game. He was only sacked like 15 times
• 22:54
  all year. So 40% of the times he went down
• 22:57
  we're because of Indiana. I mean that defense is insanely
• 23:00
  legit. And the other reason is Oregon's
• 23:03
  running game, man, their their depth is taking a hit.
• 23:08
  What's his name here? Jordan Davison.
• 23:11
  He's out for this game. He was second on the team in
• 23:14
  rushing, first in touchdowns with 15 rushing touchdowns that
• 23:17
  need to be replaced. And Makai Hughes and Jayden
• 23:20
  Lamarr are both in the portal. So they are down 3 running backs
• 23:24
  going into this game. So for a team that only averaged
• 23:28
  like 2 point something yards carry in the first match up, now
• 23:31
  they're down 3 running backs, including their main guy who
• 23:34
  scores the touchdowns for them. So I think Oregon might be
• 23:37
  coming into this a little one-dimensional.
• 23:41
  I do like their receivers though.
• 23:42
  I do like their tight end. I think they're excellent.
• 23:44
  It's just a matter of is Dante Morgan gonna have time to get
• 23:46
  the ball to them? If not, they're in for a long
• 23:48
  day. So yeah, give me give me Indiana
• 23:52
  here. Something just tells me this is
• 23:55
  it. It's just Indiana's year, man.
• 23:57
  I mean, it might be they're just, they're just on a roll,
• 24:00
  man. So yeah, I I laid the 3 1/2 with
• 24:03
  Indiana here. Peter, any thoughts?
• 24:08
  Many thoughts. And the first one is not
• 24:10
  specifically related to this. This is the first year in a long
• 24:13
  time that the four teams remaining, I don't dislike any
• 24:17
  of them. I don't care who wins.
• 24:19
  So this is kind of nice. There's no Buckeyes involved.
• 24:22
  There's nobody that I hate. This is great there.
• 24:26
  And to your point, what we've seen for a long time in football
• 24:29
  is when you have a good coaching staff, it's hard to repeat the
• 24:34
  same thing. Yes, Indiana put a ton of
• 24:37
  pressure on Oregon and earlier this year do that again, would
• 24:43
  suggest that Oregon's coaching staff does not find a way to
• 24:46
  compensate for that. And I think they're going to,
• 24:49
  right. I think they're going to find a
• 24:51
  way to compensate for that. They're going to check it down,
• 24:54
  they're going to do some screens, they're going to do
• 24:56
  some stuff to break that apart and that will change the game a
• 25:00
  bit. Now, I what you said before, I
• 25:04
  do in a way think it might be Indiana this year, right?
• 25:08
  So I'm kind of betting against myself a little bit here.
• 25:11
  Hint, hint. I'm taking India, taking Oregon
• 25:14
  to the points and the under. But so I do kind of feel like
• 25:18
  there's this kind of swell that it feels like Indiana's year,
• 25:22
  but Oregon has continued all year out kick what I thought
• 25:29
  they could do. And so this is the point where I
• 25:32
  feel like I have to bet with it. I have to because they continue
• 25:36
  to be better than I thought they would be, right?
• 25:39
  They continue to outperform. They continue to step.
• 25:42
  Up and I can't think they will. And so at this point, I am going
• 25:47
  to, I'm going to give them some props, right?
• 25:49
  I'm going to take the points. I'm going to take Oregon.
• 25:52
  They have continued to step up. I love their coaching staff.
• 25:55
  I, I just, I like the way they respond to pretty much any
• 26:00
  challenge. So I, I really like that.
• 26:02
  So I could be entirely wrong. As I said, I, I, I don't have a
• 26:08
  horse in this race. At the end of the day, I don't
• 26:10
  really care who wins this thing. So, but anyway, I got 2 bets
• 26:14
  here again, right? I am taking Oregon and the
• 26:16
  points and I'm taking the under because I do think in these
• 26:21
  games there's going to be some conservative conservatism in
• 26:25
  play. And I do think that will play
• 26:28
  into Oregon here, right? A little conservatism, all of
• 26:32
  that. That's going to do this defense
• 26:33
  is ridiculously good. Got that.
• 26:35
  So they're going to slow it Oregon down.
• 26:37
  But I do think we're going to see some on the same on the
• 26:39
  other side as well. So so yeah, Oregon +4 and the
• 26:44
  under. All right, I want to go on to
• 26:47
  get my picks. We're going to disagree again,
• 26:49
  and I've got, I'm right with Indiana here with Darren on
• 26:52
  that. You know, they convert 55% on
• 26:57
  3rd down, so they're the best in the country at that.
• 26:59
  They're going to stay on the field a lot.
• 27:02
  Oregon is explosive. They're very efficient.
• 27:05
  They can score in a hurry. But Indiana is built to stop
• 27:09
  teams like that. They have great discipline.
• 27:13
  They play with good tempo, they win the turnover battle a little
• 27:17
  bit. As far as the over goes, this
• 27:19
  doesn't have to be a giant shootout.
• 27:21
  I mean, if for the over to hit. So I like the over of 46 1/2
• 27:26
  basically. I can see the score being, you
• 27:28
  know, you know, 2824 or something like that.
• 27:33
  So I'm actually going to go opposite with you.
• 27:35
  I'm going to take the over and I'm going to take Indiana laying
• 27:38
  the 3 1/2. Any final thoughts for Darren or
• 27:42
  Pete? Any?
• 27:44
  I just got a couple. I mean, like I said, you know
• 27:46
  what both of you guys said, you know, excellent points.
• 27:49
  I agree with that. But if you look at that box
• 27:51
  score, like nobody on Oregon really like stood out.
• 27:55
  Like all their big playmakers kind of got bottled up.
• 27:59
  You know, they didn't have a wide receiver with more than 44
• 28:01
  yards. They didn't have a running back
• 28:03
  with over 60 yards. Yeah, you look at the at the
• 28:06
  Indiana side, Omar Cooper, who's actually a really good receiver,
• 28:09
  quietly had seven for 58. But Elijah Sarat went eight for
• 28:12
  1/21 with a touchdown. I So if Oregon can make those
• 28:16
  adjustments, and I agree with Pete, they've they've got
• 28:18
  excellent coordinators now they've got Indiana on film,
• 28:22
  they can certainly make those adjustments.
• 28:24
  But if they focus on Sarat, does Cooper go off?
• 28:28
  I mean, if they try and stop Mendoza from running, does Hemby
• 28:32
  have an amazing day? I mean this, I just, I mean, I
• 28:37
  don't want to say Indian's got more weapons 'cause I don't
• 28:40
  think they do. I think they're pretty even as
• 28:42
  far as the talent on the, on the skill positions.
• 28:46
  But I mean, Indiana rolled into Oregon place that very few
• 28:49
  people go and win and they, they shut that offense down.
• 28:53
  I mean, now we're on a neutral field.
• 28:54
  Landing, you know, we pick on Franklin, you know, Landing
• 28:58
  hasn't had as as much experience, but he's like O and
• 29:01
  two against the spread and O and two straight up on a neutral
• 29:04
  field underdog. So if you're a trends guy, maybe
• 29:07
  consider that. I just get if Oregon makes the
• 29:12
  adjustments, then Pete's going to hit this without sweating.
• 29:16
  If Signetti and his staff are like, OK, this is what Oregon's
• 29:19
  going to do to stop us, Let's do this.
• 29:22
  Yeah. Yeah.
• 29:23
  Dante Moore and Oregon's coordinators are in for for
• 29:25
  another long day, but these. Are going to be two really fun
• 29:30
  games. Honestly these these matchups
• 29:32
  are fun. I can't wait to watch these two
• 29:35
  games. I have a question for you guys.
• 29:37
  Does is the national, are we looking at the national
• 29:39
  champion? Whoever comes out of this game,
• 29:41
  are they, are they shoo in here? Well, I don't know.
• 29:48
  I don't know. If they're playing Ole Miss,
• 29:50
  yes, I think both of these teams can beat Ole Miss playing Miami
• 29:54
  in Miami, I don't think. That that's a challenge, yeah.
• 29:57
  That's going to be tough. And that's a home game for Miami
• 30:00
  that that's going to be a challenge for anybody.
• 30:03
  Well, right back to 1986, you know, the Orange Bowl for the
• 30:06
  championship. Oh, look, it's Miami against
• 30:08
  Oklahoma or Penn State or whoever they had to play.
• 30:10
  It's they get a home game. It's got to love it so. 1986
• 30:14
  last time my back didn't hurt. But you still had the shovel
• 30:20
  snow, so there you go. 6:15 in the morning baby, welcome to New
• 30:24
  York. God this stage sucks.
• 30:26
  Anyway, all right, guys, let's wrap this up a little bit.
• 30:33
  So let's do our picks, Peter. Go first.
• 30:37
  Yeah, I went all in with everything here.
• 30:39
  So Ole Miss plus 3 1/2 with Miami, and I took the under in
• 30:45
  that game as well. Oregon plus 4 1/2 over Indiana
• 30:48
  and I took the under in that game as well.
• 30:52
  I also pretty much almost did everything opposite of you.
• 30:55
  I got Miami -3 1/2 over Ole Miss and I've got the under in that
• 30:59
  game 52 2 points and Indiana -3 1/2 over Oregon and I have
• 31:05
  Oregon and Indiana hitting the over of 46 1/2.
• 31:09
  Darren. Yeah, I'm donating and whopping
• 31:11
  one play to this week's show here.
• 31:14
  First of all, shout out to Arizona after I gave you out as
• 31:18
  as a pick in your bowl game. You have like 11 people opt out
• 31:20
  eight hours before kickoff. Thanks a lot guys.
• 31:23
  Be looking to bet against you with all my hearts next year.
• 31:26
  You mastered. But yeah, I I am laying 3 1/2
• 31:29
  with Indiana. Yeah, exactly.
• 31:32
  I texted you guys out like they're not even watching.
• 31:34
  I'm going to bed. Yeah, Indiana laying the 3 1/2
• 31:37
  over order. All right, that'll do it.
• 31:40
  Don't forget to send your questions to cfpdudes@yahoo.com
• 31:44
  for the live stream coming up with Mark from Coach's Hot Seat.
• 31:49
  Thank you all for listening. We'll be back as we get down to
• 31:51
  the itty Gritty going to the finals.
• 31:54
  Thanks again and we'll see you next week.