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Power Islands: The AI Boom Wants Its Own Grid, and the Oil Patch Is Selling the Islands · Silicon & Shale Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: I read a press release this week the way you read a wedding registry.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know the feeling.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody you like is getting married.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: You open the list and it's 16 of everything.
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: 16 place settings, 16 of the fancy towels.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Except your 16 place settings were combined cycle gas turbines.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: 720 megawatts each.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Venture Global, October 15th.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: Power and grid frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes Energy Services
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: for up to 16 new Power Island units plus the transformer equipment.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: A pathway, their word, to up to 10 gigawatts of new compute capacity by the end of 2034.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_00: And the CEO, Mike Sable, calls it a vertically integrated AI utility.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Which is a great phrase.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: I wrote it on a sticky note.
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Of course you did.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: But here's the thing about a registry.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody has bought anything yet.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: Venture Global says it expects to place its first Power Island purchase order by
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: the end of 2026.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_00: There's no named data center customer, no named site for the new units, and no price.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: So a frame agreement is the registry.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: A frame agreement is a menu.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: You've agreed on the restaurant.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: You have not ordered dinner.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: And half the headlines this week wrote it up like the food was already on the table.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: In fairness to the menu, the restaurant has served food before.
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_01: They've got about four and a half gigawatts of modular gas-fired generation
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: across their LNG plants.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: Six power islands,
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: ordered,
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: in construction or operating, running their own facilities behind the meter.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: That's real steel.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_00: That part's real.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: Four and a half running or being built ten on the menu.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Hang on to the menu, by the way.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: I have a feeling somebody this week actually orders something.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: And whoever orders is still going to need a pipe,
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_01: a permit, and a gas nomination every single morning.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's the week we're in.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Silicon & Shale, where the oil patch meets the algorithm.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: Episode 20, week of October 19th, 2026.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Packer.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Derek.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: This week on the energy side,
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_00: Venture Global's Power Islands,
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: a rig count that touched its 2026 high and then blinked,
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: record Permian gas,
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: and the Texas Permit Pause's first report card, which landed Monday.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: On the AI side,
• 1:50
  SPEAKER_00: Seek pairs up with a company calling its model the first foundation model built
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: for energy operations, and SLB signs Total Energies for 15 years of well planning.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: And in the collision zone,
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_01: an AI campus in New Mexico that needs 17-some miles of gas pipe
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_01: before it can do anything.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: The question all episode is the same one.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: What's signed versus what's actually ordered, permitted, or running?
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with the menu.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: So I have to do something first, because it's going to bother me the whole segment if I don't.
• 2:15
  SPEAKER_01: When the Venture Global News broke, I read the headline, Up to 10 gigawatts.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I sent a friend a message that said,
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: and I'm quoting myself, Venture Global just ordered 10 gigs of gas turbines for AI.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Ordered.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Ordered.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_01: I used the word ordered.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: I didn't open the release until after lunch.
• 2:30
  SPEAKER_01: And the release doesn't say ordered anywhere.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_01: It says frame agreements.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: It says may enter into certain definitive reservation agreements.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: And it says the first purchase order is expected by the end of the year.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: So the quiet part is that you did exactly what the release was built to make you do.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_01: That's enough.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's all I've got.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do the work.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Which verb actually landed on October 15th?
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: Signed.
• 2:51
  SPEAKER_01: They signed frame agreements.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: That's a real verb and it's not nothing.
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: Under these frameworks,
• 2:55
  SPEAKER_01: they may sign definitive reservation agreements with agreed pricing
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: and delivery terms to reserve manufacturing capability over time.
• 3:02
  SPEAKER_01: The release says that preserves their flexibility on timing and scope and
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_01: that they'll build in stages as customer commitments come in.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'll grant you that.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: 10 gigawatts on paper,
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: zero purchase orders,
• 3:11
  SPEAKER_00: and they're honest about the zero if you read past the headline.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: The release also says the company would file its first permit applications that same week.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: As of today, we couldn't confirm what got filed or where.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: And they don't say where the data centers go.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_01: Their three named LNG projects, Calcazoo Pass, Plaquemines, and CP2, are in Louisiana.
• 3:28
  SPEAKER_01: But the release does not tie the new units to any site.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: So no pins on any map from us?
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: No pins.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: The thing that got me, though, is the phrase, grid independent.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: They're saying,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_01: we don't need the public grid,
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: we'll generate behind the meter and plug compute straight into it.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: And okay, you can do that.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: But your gas still comes from somewhere.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: Your turbines still need fuel every day.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: You're independent of the transmission line.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: You're not independent of the gas business.
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_00: Which is a nice segue to the part of the gas business that showed up for work, the rig count.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_01: The 600 number.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Baker Hughes, weekend at October 9th, the U.S. hit 603 rigs, and the Permian hit 274.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: Both the highest counts of 2026 and the first U.S. count of 600 or more since May of 2024.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: Then the very next week,
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: ended October 16th, the U.S. held flat at 603 and the Permian slipped 2 to 272.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: Haynesville down 1 to 56.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: So we touched the ceiling and immediately backed off.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: Or it's noise.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Two rigs in the Permian is somebody finishing a pad and not spotting the next one yet.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_00: What's not noise is the gas.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: RBN, the analyst firm,
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: has Permian gas production averaging a record 23.9 BCFF a day for
• 4:35
  SPEAKER_00: the week ended October 12th.
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_01: Which is wild with a flat to down rig count.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's not wild if you've watched what's happened to laterals and completions over
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: the last few years.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: You don't need more rigs to make more gas when every well is doing more work.
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_00: The question is where the molecules go.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: That's the takeaway piece.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: RBN says about 2.3 BCF a day of new takeaway capacity has come online this year,
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_01: and Blackcomb is expected to add about 2.5 more by year-end.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: Expected?
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: Expected.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_01: Not flowing.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not ordering Blackcomb for anyone.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_01: I've learned my lesson for the day.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_00: 2.3 in service, 2.5 on the schedule.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's a better ratio than the menu, I'll say that.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_01: But that's exactly where the venture global story connects, right?
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_01: If even a slice of that 10 gigawatt pathway turns into real gas burn,
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_01: that's real incremental demand pulling on basins like the Permian.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: If.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_01: You keep saying if, like I'm the one who announced 10 gigawatts on a frame agreement.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: You're the one who texted it as an order.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, that's fair.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: Look, the rig count and the gas-to-power story run on two different clocks.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: The rig count is a this-week number.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody counted rigs.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: The 10 gigawatt number is a by-the-end-of-2034-subject-to-customer-commitments number.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: Those two shouldn't share a sentence without a very large asterisk.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's not a region retreating.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_01: That's a region holding steady while the Permian softens by two.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_00: It tells me there are operators in Oklahoma drilling to their plan and their hedges.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't tell me there's some shift from the Permian to the MidCon.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not saying shift.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: I'm saying the flat count in a week the Permian drops suggests those programs are locked in.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_01: They're not reacting to the same weekly signal.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of those are smaller programs on acreage people have held for years.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: They don't react to weekly signals.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: They react to their bank.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: That's a feature, not a thesis.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_01: So should we be worried about the plateau?
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Define worried.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a marketer trying to fill space on a new pipe, you want those rigs running.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_00: If you're a royalty owner waiting on takeaway, you want the pipe built before the wells.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: Everybody's worried about something different, and they're all a little right.
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_00: The honest answer is one more week of counts tells us nothing, and the plateau question is open.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_01: Texas.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_01: Because this one finally has a document.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: September 21st,
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_00: Governor Abbott directed the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality,
• 6:57
  SPEAKER_00: TCEQ, to halt all permits sought by data centers until RCOT completes its audit.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: And the same release says TCEQ shall provide an update to the governor's office
• 7:06
  SPEAKER_00: on its compliance by Monday, October 19th, 2026.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: And it
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_01: showed up.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: It showed up.
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: In episode 19,
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: we said that if TCEQ says something on October 19th that changes the story,
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: we'd come back and say so.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: So here's us coming back.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: TCEQ posted a one-page letter to the governor dated October 19th,
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: signed by its interim executive director, Stephen Scharr.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: It says TCEQ has paused the issuance of all permits related to the construction
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: or development of infrastructure directly supporting data centers.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_00: Staff are screening pending applications and pausing the ones subject to
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: the directive,
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: and it's screening claimed authorizations,
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: the ones that don't need the agency to affirmatively issue a permit,
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: and suspending those for data center activities where possible.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_01: Where possible is doing some work there, and not everybody's buying it.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_01: The Texas Tribune reported on October 20th that
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_01: the advocacy group Public Citizen says some data center-related permits kept moving
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: after the directive, including stormwater construction permits.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_01: TCEQ's spokesman told the Tribune those stormwater permits had been suspended,
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_01: and the governor's office said, no permits have been approved.
• 8:05
  SPEAKER_00: So the verb TCEQ is using is paused.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: The verb the critics are using is moved.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_00: We're not refereeing that one.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: Both are on the record, and both are linked.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_01: And the structure of the pause is still what matters for anybody building.
• 8:17
  SPEAKER_01: The Texas Law Book ran an analysis on October 7th that says,
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_01: the order reaches data centers that plan to rely entirely
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: on behind-the-meter generation,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: and that co-located
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: and behind-the-meter generation developers serving data centers face the pause too.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: So the workaround
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: needs a permit for the
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: workaround.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: And per that same lawbook piece, ERCOT is expected to finish its audit around mid-December.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: If you had a behind-the-meter gas plant tied to a data center sitting in a TCEQQ,
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: you're waiting until at least year-end, and probably not much earlier.
• 8:51
  SPEAKER_01: And here's the nuance I actually found useful in that analysis.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_01: The order is pretty clear on the big permits, like new source review air permits.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: It's less clear on standard permits and permits by rule, the registration-style paths.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: The lawyers basically said, watch how TCEQ interprets this.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: And Monday's letter is the first answer.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_01: It says, claimed authorizations are being screened and suspended where possible.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: Which is an answer with an asterisk, but it's an answer and we didn't have to make it up.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: Agreed.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: Now let me push you.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: Is the pause good policy or is it a blunt instrument?
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: Both, and I'm not being cute.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: Somebody needed to stop and count what's actually headed for the grid and the water supply.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's a fair thing for a state to want.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: But halting everything, including plants that will never touch ARCOT, is blunt.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: A behind-the-meter plant is not the same grid risk as a big load pulling off the grid.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_01: But it's the same air permit.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: It is.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_01: So if your position is that the air impact matters whether or not you're connected,
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_01: the pause-covering island-mode plants is at least consistent.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't say it doesn't make sense.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_00: I said it's blunt.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: We need to evaluate this,
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: and nobody gets a permit until we've evaluated everything,
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: our two different policies.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: One is a process, the other is a backlog.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: And the backlog would be real.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_01: When the pause lifts, everything in the queue lands on the agency's desk at once.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_00: And if any of Venture Global's 16 units were headed for Texas,
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_00: that would be a very different timeline.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: And we don't know that they are.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: The release name's no site.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_01: Which is a strange kind of advantage this month.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_01: You can't have a permit paused on a project you haven't located yet.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: It's the only advantage of not having ordered anything.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 10:18
  SPEAKER_01: The AI side.
• 10:19
  SPEAKER_01: The initial application supports KBR's Insight Digital Platform for Operating Plants
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_01: across ammonia, petrochemical, LNG, and oil and gas.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: First foundation model built for energy operations is doing a lot of lifting in that sentence.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_01: That's their claim, not mine.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: I'm attributing it.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_01: And also, a foundation model named Orbital.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_01: You'd think it would have a lot of pull.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_00: Pack.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_01: Gravity.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: I heard it as it left my mouth.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry, it's never coming back.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: It had better not.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_00: Go on.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_01: What I actually like is that the workflow is specific.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: Orbital flags equipment
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: and process issues using what they call physics grounded detection and diagnosis.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_01: Then analysts at KBR's innovation studio in Bengaluru use SEEK
• 11:17
  SPEAKER_01: to investigate what Orbital flagged and write the customer reports.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_01: So this isn't AI replaces the engineer.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_01: It's the model raises a hand and a person goes and figures out what's wrong.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the pattern that works in operations.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: The model says something looks off, somebody with experience goes and looks.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: My question is the false positive rate.
• 11:34
  SPEAKER_00: If it flags 50 things a day and 47 are noise,
• 11:37
  SPEAKER_00: those analysts stop opening the alerts inside a month.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's the killer of every anomaly system.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: Tune it too tight.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody trusts it.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_01: Too loose, it misses the thing that matters.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_01: And they didn't disclose any performance numbers.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_01: No customer results.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_01: No price.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: So which verb landed?
• 11:52
  SPEAKER_00: Because partner to advance industrial AI is a headline, not a verb.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: Signed.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_01: A commercial agreement.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_01: That's real.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's a second verb at the bottom of the release I want to flag.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_01: The company's plan to explore a two-way integration between Orbital and Seek.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: Plan to explore.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's two verbs holding hands so neither one has to do anything.
• 12:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's honest, though.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_01: Sign the commercial deal.
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_01: Exploring the deeper plumbing.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the thing I'll admit because it's actually impressive.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Putting the model in front of an analytics tool that engineers already use instead
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: of a brand new dashboard is the right shape.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: People don't adopt the screen.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: They adopt the workflow they already have with one more useful thing in it in...
• 12:28
  SPEAKER_01: And notice where the line sits.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_01: The model flags.
• 12:31
  SPEAKER_01: A person decides.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody in this release is closing a valve on the model's say-so.
• 12:35
  SPEAKER_00: Good.
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_00: Because a model acting on its own,
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: changing a set point without a person in between,
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'd need to see a year of its alerts and how often it was right before I'd even have
• 12:43
  SPEAKER_00: that conversation.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_01: Flag yes, act no.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: And to be fair to them, that's the workflow they announced.
• 12:48
  SPEAKER_01: Humans in the loop.
• 12:50
  SPEAKER_00: My worry is 18 months in when somebody at a customer looks at the bill and says,
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: why are we paying analysts to check alerts if the model already knows?
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_01: That's when the human checkpoint stops looking like overhead and starts looking like
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_01: the only part that understands the whole system.
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: And that's where a foundation model matters.
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: A foundation model implies generality.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: You can take it from an ammonia plant and put it on a gas gathering system.
• 13:09
  SPEAKER_00: But those are very different operating environments with very different failure modes.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: The physics are different.
• 13:15
  SPEAKER_00: The physics are different,
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: the instrumentation is different, and the consequence of a wrong call is different.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: A big processing plant is usually instrumented a lot more densely than
• 13:23
  SPEAKER_00: a gathering system out in the field.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_01: Where you're lucky to have the readings you want.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: So something that's physics grounded on
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: a well-instrumented plant may behave very differently on sparse field data.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: The release talks about energy environments broadly.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't say anything about how it handles that.
• 13:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's not a knock.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: It's just a question I'd ask before I signed.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's the honest summary.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_01: Promising architecture, real commercial agreement, zero disclosed results.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: The sounds right.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: Show me the data category.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: Second AI story.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_01: SLB.
• 13:49
  SPEAKER_01: October 8th.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: A 15-year agreement for total energies
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_01: to use SLB's drill plan coherent well-planning and engineering solutions.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: SLB's key points say the deployment is across Total Energy's global upstream portfolio.
• 14:01
  SPEAKER_01: Fifteen years is a long contract for software.
• 14:03
  SPEAKER_00: Fifteen years is a long contract for anything.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: That's longer than plenty of primary lease terms I've worked with.
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_01: What Drillplan does,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_01: per the release,
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_01: is move Total Energies into a digital planning environment
• 14:12
  SPEAKER_01: that integrates offset well data,
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_01: trajectory designs,
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_01: casing and completion inputs, and planning assumptions in one common foundation.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_01: So instead of the well planner in one system,
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: the directional folks on a different set of offsets,
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_01: and the casing engineer pulling from a spreadsheet somebody updated last quarter,
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: maybe it's all in one place.
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: On paper, that's what every operator wants.
• 14:30
  SPEAKER_00: I've seen well plans go sideways because the trajectory was based on offset data
• 14:34
  SPEAKER_00: that didn't include the last few wells drilled in the section.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: That's not a technology problem.
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's an information fragmentation problem.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: If drill plan actually solves that, 15 years is cheap.
• 14:43
  SPEAKER_01: Wait, you're the optimist here?
• 14:45
  SPEAKER_00: I'm being specific.
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_00: I said if.
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: The hard part isn't building the platform.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: It's getting every discipline to put their data in,
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_00: keep it current, and trust the shared version over their own private spreadsheet.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: The drilling engineer doesn't trust the completion engineer's assumptions,
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_00: so he keeps his own copy on his laptop.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_01: That's the integration tax nobody puts in a press release.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: And over 15 years,
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: Total Energies will go through how many reorganizations,
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: how many new teams who don't want to use the platform the last team picked.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_01: So your concern isn't the technology.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_01: It's sustaining the discipline for a decade and a half.
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's my concern.
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: The contract value wasn't disclosed.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: No rollout dates, no performance targets, at least not publicly.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: So we're taking it on faith that SLB built something good enough for Total Energies
• 15:23
  SPEAKER_00: to commit for 15 years.
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_01: Which makes it more interesting to me, not less.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_01: The release talks
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_01: about combining Total Energies internally developed digital expertise with
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_01: a commercial platform.
• 15:32
  SPEAKER_01: So they looked at build versus buy and decided
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: to put their own tools inside somebody else's platform for 15 years.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: That tells you how hard the integration problem is.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: Or it tells you their procurement team got a very good price.
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_01: Could be both.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_01: And a callback.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_01: Without retelling it.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_01: In episode 19, we talked about SLB and total energies through the arena collaboration.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: This relationship keeps adding verbs.
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_01: And this one isn't a pilot or a framework.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_01: It's a 15-year signed agreement.
• 15:55
  SPEAKER_00: Signed 15 years is about as close to a real verb as this business gets.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: No pathway to language they signed.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_01: And here's the honest test.
• 16:02
  SPEAKER_01: Would you let it touch yours?
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: Would you approve your own well plan out of a shared drill plan environment
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_01: without your private spreadsheet open next to it?
• 16:08
  SPEAKER_00: Honestly, the first few know I'd run my spreadsheet next to it and diff them.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: If they matched for a few months, I'd close the spreadsheet.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_00: Probably I'd still keep it on the laptop.
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_01: That's the most honest software review I've ever heard.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: And there's one small footnote from the same day.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: Cosmo Oil in Japan and GE Vernova signed a memorandum of understanding,
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: October 8th,
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: for Cosmo to beta test new generative AI asset performance management features
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_00: in real refinery maintenance.
• 16:31
  SPEAKER_01: Verb check.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_01: Signed an MOU to test.
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: That's the honest version.
• 16:35
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody's claiming it's running the refinery.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: Credit where it's due.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: They said test and they meant test.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_01: So for anyone evaluating these from an investment or operation seat, the filter's simple.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: Did they sign?
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: Did they order?
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_01: Did they file?
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: Did they get a permit?
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: Or is it running?
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_01: If it's none of those, it's a press release, not a project.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: And this week the software side had the better verbs, which I did not expect to say.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_01: So here's where it all lands on the ground.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_01: Oracle's Project Jupiter.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: A data center campus in New Mexico and it needs gas.
• 17:03
  SPEAKER_01: Not grid power.
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_01: Gas to fuel its own power plant.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: The Green Chili Line.
• 17:07
  SPEAKER_01: Pipeline and Gas Journal, October 14th, citing FERC docket, CP2680.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: TransWestern Pipeline's Green Chili Project.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_01: About 17.77 miles of 24-inch pipe, all in Doña Ana County, New Mexico.
• 17:20
  SPEAKER_01: About 400 million cubic feet a day of firm service to fuel a power plant for the campus.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_01: A dedicated microgrid using fuel cells.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_01: And Oracle went back to FERC and asked again to expedite the order because,
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: quote, time remains of the essence.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: So remember the menu from the top of the show?
• 17:35
  SPEAKER_00: This is the one this week where somebody walked into the kitchen,
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: not a frame agreement,
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: a pipe with a docket number,
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: an environmental assessment,
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: and a customer standing at Fiercy's window asking where the food is.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_01: The menu pays off.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_00: The menu pays off.
• 17:48
  SPEAKER_00: And look at what's actually in the file.
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: Fiercy staff did an environmental assessment that recommended a finding
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: of no significant impact with conditions.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: The comment period is closed.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: The shipper,
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: Green Chili Ventures,
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: holds a precedent agreement for 100% of the capacity,
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: and the service agreement has a 17-and-a-half-year term.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: But as of mid-October, no final FERC order.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: And one detail from that filing I liked, because it's the opposite of a press release.
• 18:11
  SPEAKER_01: Deliveries ramp up over a relatively short period of the term.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: They don't start at the full 400.
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's a real document talking.
• 18:17
  SPEAKER_00: A press release would have said 400 on day one.
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_01: And there's friction in the file too.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: A commenter pointed at past due milestone dates in the precedent agreement.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_01: TransWestern answered that those are target dates that don't give the shipper
• 18:27
  SPEAKER_01: a right to terminate, and that the agreement is still in full force.
• 18:30
  SPEAKER_01: So, even the real version has a little argument in it.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_00: Which is how you know it's real.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody argues about a menu.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: So, this is island mode playing out in public.
• 18:38
  SPEAKER_01: They're not asking the regional grid for power.
• 18:40
  SPEAKER_01: They're building a fuel chain from the interstate pipe to their own power plant.
• 18:43
  SPEAKER_01: And the pipe is the gating item.
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_00: And here's what I want people in our world to sit with.
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_00: When you run island mode,
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_00: when there's no grid behind you, the gas supply chain is your uptime guarantee.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: The pipe,
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_00: the compression upstream of it,
• 18:55
  SPEAKER_00: the gathering, the nominations, the generation on site.
• 18:58
  SPEAKER_00: Every link in that chain is now a possible outage for a customer with zero tolerance
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_00: for outages.
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: Zero.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_01: A data center doesn't have a productions down 8% this month.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: We'll make it up next quarter conversation.
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_01: Either the power is there or the servers go dark.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a very different reliability contract than most of the gas business was built around.
• 19:15
  SPEAKER_00: When you gather gas for a processing plant and a compressor goes down for
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: a few hours, you reroute, you have a bad day.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody loses a computing customer over it.
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: But now you might.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: That's the collision.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: Our side of the business built its reliability around commodity flow.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_01: Molecules are fungible.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: Timing flexes inside a window.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_01: An island-mode data center doesn't care about your nomination window.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_01: If a compressor station upstream hiccups at 2 in the morning,
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: the workload doesn't pause politely.
• 19:39
  SPEAKER_00: So the E&P problem is,
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: how do you run a fuel chain that has to perform like a utility when a lot
• 19:44
  SPEAKER_00: of it was built and staffed like a gathering system?
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: And that's where the seek and applied computing story stops being just a press release.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_01: Imagine something like Orbital,
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: an operations model doing physics-grounded detection,
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: watching the compressors and the meters and the pressures upstream of
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_01: a campus like this and flagging trouble before it turns into an outage.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on, I want to push on that.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: Before it happens is the pitch.
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_00: What does that look like when it's a single dedicated line out in the desert?
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_01: Fair.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: The useful version isn't a magic forecast.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's pattern recognition on vibration, temperature drift, pressure behavior.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: Stuff a good operator would notice eventually,
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: but maybe not at 2 in the morning on a Tuesday when nobody's watching that screen.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_01: The model catches the bearing that's trending hot days before it fails.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: That's the value for an island mode customer.
• 20:26
  SPEAKER_00: So, Pack, would you let it touch yours?
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: Seriously, you're a compressor station overnight unattended with a model making the calls?
• 20:32
  SPEAKER_01: Making the calls?
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: No, not yet.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: Flag and Escalate?
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, and honestly,
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_01: I'd be more comfortable with a model that wakes somebody up
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_01: because bearing vibration crossed a line than with a lot of
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_01: the alarm setups out there now,
• 20:44
  SPEAKER_01: which are basically a lit-up alarm tree that everybody has learned to ignore.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's fair.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: Alarm fatigue is real.
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_00: I've seen control rooms where the operator scrolls past most of the alarm log
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_00: because most of it is noise.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: So, the model's job isn't to replace the operator.
• 20:56
  SPEAKER_01: It's to be the filter that turns a wall of alerts into the three that matter.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: And in a fuel chain where uptime is the whole product, that filter is worth money.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: But here's my concern.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_00: We're talking about monitoring a pipe that doesn't have its final FERC order yet.
• 21:08
  SPEAKER_00: And over in Texas, the governor's pause covers behind the meter generation too.
• 21:12
  SPEAKER_01: Which is why New Mexico is interesting.
• 21:14
  SPEAKER_01: Different state and the interstate pipe runs through FERC, not TCEQ.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_01: Oracle isn't standing in the Texas line.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_01: It's standing in a different line.
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_00: And telling that line that time remains of the essence.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: So, you get this situation where the tool to watch the fuel chain might be ready,
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_01: or close to ready, before the fuel chain is allowed to exist.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_01: The model is looking for a compressor to watch, and the pipe isn't in the ground yet.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the pattern.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: The AI capability is real,
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_00: the operational need is real, and the bottleneck is somewhere nobody's modeling.
• 21:40
  SPEAKER_00: It's a docket number, it's a final order, it's a state agency that's been told to pause.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_01: But the vision,
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: the useful version,
• 21:46
  SPEAKER_01: is a gas supplier that has agreed to serve an island-mode campus,
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_01: a model watching the physical chain,
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: the anomalies feeding into an analytics tool the engineers already use.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_01: A human reviews every escalation and decides whether to roll a truck or adjust operations.
• 21:59
  SPEAKER_01: And the data center gets something closer to utility-grade reliability out of
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_01: a fuel chain that wasn't originally built for it,
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: because the monitoring closed the gap.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: And the human-approved outcome is what?
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: The compressor doesn't fail.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: The gas keeps flowing.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: The servers stay up.
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody even knows the model did anything because the failure just didn't happen.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_01: Which is the hardest thing in the world to sell.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_01: But the island mode customer changes the math.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: The downside isn't a day of reduced throughput.
• 22:23
  SPEAKER_01: The downside is a campus going dark with no grid to fall back on,
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: and a long-term customer who remembers.
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: That's what's different from normal monitoring.
• 22:30
  SPEAKER_00: The consequence went from we lose some revenue for a day to we might lose the customer.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: That changes what you're willing to spend on prevention.
• 22:37
  SPEAKER_01: And the funny part is,
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: everybody's talking about 10 gigawatts in vertically integrated AI utilities
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: and 16 turbines,
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_01: and the actual collision between oil and gas and AI might come down to
• 22:46
  SPEAKER_01: a vibration reading on a compressor upstream of a 17-mile pipe in
• 22:49
  SPEAKER_01: the New Mexico desert.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: 17.77 miles.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: Let's be precise.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: That one somebody actually had to file.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: Noted.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: And filed.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, field report.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: What's the takeaway for people who are actually operating right now?
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: We've spent most of the show on frame agreements,
• 23:03
  SPEAKER_00: foundation models, FERC dockets, and permit pauses.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's a lot of noise, and the signal-to-noise ratio in this space is honestly bad.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: It's terrible.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_01: And here's the practical version.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: If you're a landman,
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: an operator,
• 23:14
  SPEAKER_01: or a mineral owner with acreage anywhere near a proposed gas-to-power project or
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_01: a proposed data center campus,
• 23:19
  SPEAKER_01: you need to know the difference between what's been announced and what's been filed.
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_01: Those are two different universes right now.
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_00: They are.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: Or ever.
• 23:26
  SPEAKER_00: So here's my hierarchy.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: And it applies whether you're upstream, midstream, or a mineral owner getting phone calls.
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_00: The verifiable signals are three things.
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: A purchase order, not a frame agreement.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_00: A purchase order.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_00: A filed permit or docket number you can look up yourself.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_01: And an in-service date tied to actual construction milestones.
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_01: Those three tell you something real is happening.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: And a frame agreement is none of those.
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_01: A frame agreement is the menu.
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_01: An MOU is I don't even know what an MOU is in the restaurant bit.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_01: It's agreeing that food exists.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_00: That's not far off.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: And in fairness, Cosmo's MOU said exactly what it was.
• 24:10
  SPEAKER_00: A test.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's fine.
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: The problem is never the MOU.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: It's the headline that treats it like an order.
• 24:16
  SPEAKER_01: So if you're an operator and somebody approaches you about supplying gas into
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_01: a behind-the-meter power project,
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_01: the first question isn't how many megawatts or even what's the price.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_01: The first question is, show me the docket number.
• 24:27
  SPEAKER_00: And the second question is, who's your off-taker and is there a signed agreement?
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: Oracle filing on a FERC docket is real.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's a company on the record saying, we need this pipe.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: You can go read it.
• 24:37
  SPEAKER_00: A press release that says,
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: pathway to 10 gigawatts is a forward-looking statement with
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: a footnote you didn't read.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_01: Which brings me to the build list.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_01: The problem is simple.
• 24:45
  SPEAKER_01: There are filings happening right now at First Sea,
• 24:47
  SPEAKER_01: at TCEQ,
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_01: at state commissions that directly affect acreage value,
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_01: gas demand, and infrastructure near your operations.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_01: And unless somebody is checking those dockets by hand,
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_01: which almost nobody does, you're hearing about them from press releases.
• 24:59
  SPEAKER_01: Which means you're hearing late and you're hearing what the company wants you to hear.
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: Not what got filed.
• 25:04
  SPEAKER_01: So, the build idea is a docket watcher.
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_01: A simple tool that tracks FERC and TCEQ filings tied to gas-to-power
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: and data center projects near your acreage and flags status changes.
• 25:13
  SPEAKER_01: New application filed, comment period opened, environmental assessment posted, order issued.
• 25:18
  SPEAKER_01: And it tells you before the press release does.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_00: I like that more than most things you pitch in this segment.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: High praise.
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_00: Because it isn't trying to replace anybody's judgment.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_00: The information is already public.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: It's sitting in a docket.
• 25:29
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody's watching it systematically unless they're the applicant or the applicant's lawyers.
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_01: Can I push on it a little?
• 25:34
  SPEAKER_01: Dockets are messy,
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_01: names change,
• 25:36
  SPEAKER_01: a project files under some entity you've never heard of,
• 25:37
  SPEAKER_01: and a keyword search misses it.
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_01: A docket watcher that misses the one filing that matters is worse than none
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_01: because you'll trust it.
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_01: That's fair.
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_01: So, version 1 is narrow.
• 26:03
  SPEAKER_01: A short list of dockets and entities you already know about,
• 26:06
  SPEAKER_01: like CP2680, if you're in that part of New Mexico.
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_01: Watch those well before you try to watch everything.
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: Start with the dockets you can name.
• 26:13
  SPEAKER_00: I can live with that.
• 26:15
  SPEAKER_00: And it fits this week, by the way.
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_00: If you'd had one pointed at TCEQ on Monday, you'd have caught that letter the minute it posted.
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_01: And it would have been a lot faster than us refreshing the page.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: Now, one action item,
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: and this one is for the midstream folks and anyone selling gas
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: into behind-the-meter power.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_00: Start documenting your compression and gathering uptime now.
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: Because the Island Mode buyer is going to ask,
• 26:34
  SPEAKER_00: they'll want to see reliability history on your system,
• 26:36
  SPEAKER_00: and if you don't have it organized, you could lose that deal to somebody who does.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_01: That's a really good point.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: The Island Mode customer has no grid to fall back on,
• 26:44
  SPEAKER_01: so their diligence on your gas supply will look more like
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_01: a utility reliability review than a normal commercial negotiation.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_01: And if your answer to,
• 26:51
  SPEAKER_01: what was your compressor uptime over the last 12 months is, uh, let me check.
• 26:56
  SPEAKER_00: You're done.
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_01: You're done.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_01: So that's the action item, and it costs almost nothing.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: Start tracking it, even in a spreadsheet.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_01: Get it organized before somebody asks.
• 27:05
  SPEAKER_00: And that's the whole week, really.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_00: The 10 gigawatt number, the foundation models, the FERC filing.
• 27:10
  SPEAKER_00: It all comes back to one rule.
• 27:12
  SPEAKER_00: Read the docket, not the deck.
• 27:14
  SPEAKER_00: The information is in the filings.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: The story is in the press release.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_00: Those are different documents with different jobs.
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_01: Read the docket, not the deck.
• 27:21
  SPEAKER_01: I'm stealing that.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_00: It's yours.
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: And if you're hearing this and thinking,
• 27:24
  SPEAKER_01: I actually need a docket watcher for my operation,
• 27:26
  SPEAKER_01: or I need help getting my reliability data organized before
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_01: an island mode buyer comes calling, that's the kind of consulting work we do.
• 27:33
  SPEAKER_01: Reach out at siliconandshale at gemail.com.
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, messiest artifact of the week.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: Rated as always in thread protectors,
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: five is a clean box, one is a protector you found in a ditch.
• 27:44
  SPEAKER_01: Item one, vertically integrated AI utility.
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_01: Four words, one sticky note on my monitor, zero purchase orders.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_01: Two thread protectors.
• 27:52
  SPEAKER_01: I still kind of like it, and that's the problem.
• 27:54
  SPEAKER_00: Item two.
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: Plan to explore a bidirectional integration.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: A sentence where every word is in the future tense, including plan.
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_00: One and a half thread protectors.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_01: Item three.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: The first foundation model built for energy operations.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_01: Could be true.
• 28:08
  SPEAKER_01: Can't check it.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_01: Three thread protectors on the honor system.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: And a bonus from the cold open.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: One message sent by a co-host before lunch that said, ordered.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_00: One thread protector found in a ditch.
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_01: That's fair.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_01: I'd have given it zero.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: Credits.
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_01: Silicon and shale.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: Practical conversation where the oil patch meets the algorithm.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: Every source we use today is linked in the show notes.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_01: Venture Global,
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: Baker Hughes,
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: Counts Through Oil & Gas 360,
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_01: and PB Oil & Gas Magazine,
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_01: RBN Energy,
• 28:36
  SPEAKER_01: The Governor's Office,
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_01: TCEQ's Letter,
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: The Texas Law Book,
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_01: The Texas Tribune,
• 28:42
  SPEAKER_01: Seek, SLB, Cosmo Oil, and Pipeline and Gas Journal on the green chili docket.
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_00: If your company sells to operators,
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: landmen,
• 28:50
  SPEAKER_00: or anyone in the patch and you'd like to sponsor the show,
• 28:53
  SPEAKER_00: same address, siliconandshale at gmail.com.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_00: We'll use your product before we talk about it.
• 28:58
  SPEAKER_01: And when Aircot's audit lands in December,
• 28:59
  SPEAKER_01: we'll read that one too and tell you what it actually says, not what we guessed.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: One small ask.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: If this helped you tell a menu from an order,
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: a rating,
• 29:07
  SPEAKER_00: or a quick review wherever you listen helps other folks in the patch find us,
• 29:10
  SPEAKER_00: that's it.
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_00: That's the whole ask.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: And to the 16 Power Islands, we hope somebody buys you off the registry.
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_00: Pax already told a friend they did.