Latest / The Fourcast / Will the Conservatives sack Kemi Badenoch?

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Will the Conservatives sack Kemi Badenoch? · The Fourcast

0:00
Could the Conservative Party cease to exist?
0:02
Yes. Oh, absolutely, yes.
0:03
Yes or no, I think it will continue.
0:05
To I think it's, but it's completely profound, the crisis
0:07
and as the party has moved steadily to the right, so things
0:12
have got worse and worse. Liz Cross isn't here as far as
0:15
we know, unless Therese corrects me.
0:17
Does she want a defective reform?
0:19
I don't believe that's the case at all.
0:21
Would you like to? Do you fancy it?
0:23
No, I know it's probably the most ridiculous question you've
0:26
ever asked. Every senior conservative you
0:29
speak to here in the bars, at the parties says that they think
0:32
Kemi Bade not will be out by December, by May, or certainly
0:35
before the general election. How long does Kemi Bade not
0:37
have? Hello and welcome to the
0:43
forecast. We're in Manchester for the
0:45
Conservative Party conference where Kemi Badnock is fighting
0:48
for her political life. She's making two speeches, a
0:50
Blizzard of policy announcements less than a year after winning
0:54
the leadership, and urging her party to regroup after it cycled
0:57
through 5 leaders in eight years.
1:00
But few here believe that she will survive much longer.
1:03
Joining me to discuss all of this, Lord Daniel Finkelstein
1:06
and Baroness Teres Coffee. We'll be asking how long can
1:09
Badnock last? Who could replace her?
1:11
And is a pact with Reform now the Tory Party's best hope?
1:15
Well, Denny Finkelstein has been a Blizzard of policy
1:19
announcement, hasn't it? ECHR welfare, this and that.
1:23
I mean, we were promised nothing until 2027, A period of
1:26
thinking. What happened?
1:28
Well, I think they do need to make some sort of impact.
1:30
They, they, people want to think you've thought your policies
1:32
through, but you can't wait forever.
1:34
And I did think actually both main parties made a mistake
1:39
leaving the summer completely to Nigel Farage, who was able to
1:42
make quite a big impact during that period.
1:45
You can't really do that. So I maybe the experience of
1:48
that made her move a bit quicker.
1:50
But there's another reason, which is if you're going to do
1:51
the ECHR policy, you don't really want to be arguing about
1:55
that during the run up to the general election.
1:59
You want to move on to the economy if you can.
2:01
And So what you want to do, and a bit like William Hague did
2:03
immediately after you got elected on Europe, which is try
2:06
to see whether you can discipline the party behind a
2:09
single policy and then move on from it, whether that will prove
2:13
actually possible. But I understand, I understand
2:16
the timing issues at least right?
2:18
But I mean, they're also talking about the economy and cutting
2:20
benefits, basically ripping off reforms policy word for word.
2:24
It's a bit panicked, isn't it Therese?
2:27
I didn't think it's panicked at all.
2:28
I think they've gone through a lot of detailed work and
2:30
actually some of what's been mentioned today.
2:33
Helen Wheatley spoke about this a few months ago.
2:36
So if nothing else, I think how can I put it, reforms seem to be
2:41
just picking up almost like a bingo calls as without actually
2:45
having done the work and the detail behind it.
2:48
So in terms of I think the timing is right to use
2:52
conference to start to do some significant policy
2:56
pronouncements. And for example, David Wolfson,
3:01
we know him in the House of Lords.
3:03
He's a respected guy. He's done a lot of work.
3:07
Whether or not everybody will agree with him or not, that's a
3:09
different story. But nevertheless, that's still
3:13
shows the depth that Kemi and her team are going through in
3:17
order to come up with, you know, justifying and affect their
3:21
decisions. I think also we've got to avoid
3:23
kind of like journalistic overlay of kind of like, let's
3:26
let me give you an example, Ed Miliband sandwich, right?
3:30
You just take a sandwich. Everyone used it as a narrative
3:34
to tell a story about Ed Miliband not being very
3:36
appealing to the electorate. And there was David Miliband and
3:38
the banana. Exactly.
3:39
And that was exactly the same thing.
3:40
There was nothing wrong with it whatsoever in either incident.
3:43
So the word panic or they're copying reform, reform.
3:48
If reform and the conservatives have announced the same policy.
3:50
The right question is, is this a good idea?
3:53
We're overlaying split though we're over.
3:56
Well, that's a that that we can come on to whether it's.
3:58
A good idea? Well, is it, is it a good idea?
4:00
Because there are splits on the ECHR, on welfare, on, on all
4:03
sorts of. People.
4:04
So I, I'm pretty sympathetic to the welfare policies actually.
4:09
I think in general you have to save money on welfare and we've
4:13
also got to have a, a welfare system which people feel is
4:16
reciprocal. I paid in, therefore I got out.
4:18
So I think looking at the migration issue and welfare at
4:22
the same time, that's not a bad idea.
4:24
You won't save lots of money during that, but I think people
4:27
it will help the fairness of the system.
4:29
On the ECHR. I've never been supportive of
4:32
leaving, not because I'm actually hugely ideological
4:37
about it, but I just question whether the wrench from the
4:41
international system is worth the gain on migration.
4:44
So my view is yeah. I mean, it won't make much
4:46
difference, says David Gore for. A conservative I think that
4:48
argument that's the argument that that I find most
4:50
persuasive. Look my my view is the world
4:55
community of of people who are with small our Liberal Democrats
4:59
has got to get a grip on migration and I am willing to be
5:03
supportive of anything even things that I'd previously be
5:08
hovering over and big amendments to the refugee convention, for
5:12
example to get a grip on this. I'm just not absolutely clear
5:15
this would I? I think the proportion of our
5:18
illegal immigration cases that are genuinely being held up by
5:22
the Human Rights Act and the ECHR is small.
5:26
I think there's a chance the Conservative Party will will
5:28
have difficulties uniting over it.
5:31
But more than that, I think the electorate, despite wanting
5:35
migration to be dealt with, might actually balk at very big
5:40
radical change. People are quite loss averse.
5:42
So I'm not sure from either a political or a policy point of
5:46
view that it's the right the right policy.
5:49
If I think back, Theresa May in 2016 said she'd rather leave the
5:53
ECHR than leave the EU and she's no soft touch on a lot of this
5:59
stuff. So I think there's been merit at
6:02
investigating it and that's why I think David Wilson work is
6:06
being useful for people who are concerned more generally about
6:10
significant change in institutions.
6:12
But there's no doubt that legal judgements made not just in the
6:16
UK but at the ECHR level, are getting further and further away
6:21
from what was supposed to be the basis.
6:23
Former Lord Chancellor He was writing in The Times this
6:26
morning about the tiny proportion of cases that have
6:28
actually been affected by the ECHR.
6:30
I'm not an ideologue about either the Human Rights Act or
6:34
the ECHRI, think both of those things are are pragmatic
6:38
matters. First of all, I don't think it's
6:40
a big it's a solution to this problem.
6:43
Secondly, it would be better if you're if we could have a
6:47
European wide solution. So I think the right position
6:50
for the Conservative Party would be to put pressure on the
6:53
government to engage, which it doesn't do in big negotiation
6:57
about it. But I'm dubious so.
6:59
You're sounding like you're sounding like a member of the
7:00
Labour government, I must say, But we'll come on.
7:02
No, I'm not. I'm not.
7:03
I'm not asking this that's. Not that's not true at all.
7:06
Sorry, No, that isn't true because I'm, I'm highly critical
7:09
of their failure to lead international efforts to change
7:14
the Human Rights Act and, and, and the ECHR.
7:17
So, but you know, I'm not afraid of being said to have a position
7:24
that might be the same as Shabana Mahmood on something.
7:26
Liz Cross isn't here as far as we know, unless Therese corrects
7:29
me. Is she?
7:32
Do you think she might defect her reform or would she not?
7:34
Be welcome if Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because, and
7:37
I'll tell you what he'll do if she tries to do this, not that
7:40
you'll know much, much better. So you'll know whether she would
7:43
do this. But Nigel Farage will say I'm
7:45
not accepting somebody who thinks that Tommy Robinson is is
7:49
unacceptably demonised. So he'll use that.
7:51
What? She said in AUS.
7:53
Podcast she did and it's she'll use that Liz was somebody that I
7:57
actually liked a lot and I I find her public contributions
8:06
since she's lost Alicia completely baffling behaviour to
8:08
be. Honest, she doesn't the dark
8:09
side. Hasn't she?
8:10
Well, you know, look, it depends whether the people have will
8:12
have their own view about whether it's dark side or not,
8:14
obviously. Well.
8:15
All right, I'm well, as far as I'm concerned, yes, being the
8:20
ally of Steve Bannon and and normalising Tommy Robinson is
8:23
the dark side, definitely. And I find that bewildering
8:28
position for a Conservative who was senior enough to be the
8:31
leader of the party to take. So I'm very I'm, I'm dismayed by
8:34
it in the extreme. And but I don't think that I
8:37
think that Nigel Farage wouldn't accept her because he'd know
8:39
what he was important. Does she want to defect to?
8:41
Reform. I don't believe that's the case
8:43
at all. Have you?
8:44
Spoken to her about it. I don't need to speak to her
8:46
about it. She won't be defecting to reform
8:48
so. Would you like to?
8:51
Do you fancy it? No, honestly, it's probably the
8:55
most ridiculous question you've ever asked.
8:57
So you are Tory till the. Last breath, right?
9:00
Through and through. I grew up in Liverpool, there
9:03
was a little girl. I did have a Conservative MP.
9:05
You haven't. Quite answered the question.
9:07
What? Will you remain A Tory until
9:09
you're dying breath? Yeah, right.
9:12
Of course. I mean, a lot of your colleagues
9:14
are considering following the team Dory's, you know, I mean
9:17
like Danny. Kruger, there's a brilliant
9:19
sentence. A lot of our colleagues, a lot
9:21
of our colleagues are not considering following the team.
9:23
Torres, Danny. Kruger, I went on to say.
9:28
Well, Jane Berry, Danny, So it's a very interesting question, one
9:30
of the questions, I think some. People are keen for power and
9:32
they see reform as the way to get there.
9:34
One of the questions that was asked about Charlie Kirk,
9:36
interestingly was and, and I hope you start to come back to
9:40
your point about Danny Kirk, was, was Charlie Kirk far right?
9:43
And what they failed to appreciate is what he was, was
9:45
actually a Christian fundamentalist and his politics
9:48
were very much influenced by that.
9:49
And it wasn't really easy to put that on the right left spectrum.
9:53
Some of it was highly compassionate.
9:55
Some of it is what we traditionally regard as far
9:57
right. OK, But you couldn't put him on
9:59
that spectrum. A bit similar.
10:01
Danny's politics are very difficult for me to to kind of
10:05
compare myself to because we start with such different.
10:09
Some of his answers is because Jesus said so, right?
10:12
And which he genuinely and seriously means.
10:14
And I've got huge respect for people of faith, just that isn't
10:18
my fate. So it's very hard for me to to
10:20
relate to it sometimes. So you are.
10:23
You're you're a Christian, you know, do you see that appeal?
10:26
And also you said something very interesting that I wanted you to
10:29
expand on that You said a lot of your colleagues who are thinking
10:32
about defecting to reform, they sense power I.
10:35
Don't want to give you the impression that I know lots of
10:37
people who are thinking are defecting to reform because I
10:39
don't, but I can see that some people are attracted by the
10:43
basis of getting re elected and getting into power.
10:47
Quite a lot of the people. And Nadine has perhaps an
10:49
unusual exception that she did serve in cabinet, as did Jake
10:54
Berry. But most of the people who've
10:57
moved didn't really reach that level under a Conservative
11:01
government. So perhaps they see an
11:03
opportunity there and that enough of the policies are
11:06
similar, But nevertheless, I actually don't particularly know
11:12
people who are lining up to jump to reforms.
11:15
I mean, obviously lots of people who voted Conservative are at
11:18
the moment intending to vote reform.
11:20
That will mean a proportion of people in the party want to do
11:23
that. The interesting thing is
11:24
actually not how many have done that, but how few and how not.
11:28
Stunning. I mean that Danny Kruger is a
11:31
mid level person. How, how not that senior has
11:35
been, but you know, who knows the the the kind of maths of it
11:38
suggests that that will they'll be quite a bit more.
11:41
So, staying on the maths, I want to just propose a thought
11:44
experiment for you both. You know you're on the threshold
11:46
of a general election. The polls are still the way they
11:49
are. If it is the price of getting
11:52
yourselves back into power to do a merger or some kind of pact
11:56
with Reform that sees Nigel Farage installed in Downing St.
11:59
would. You do it.
11:59
Depends who. I know this is funniest
12:01
questions. It depends exactly who Reform
12:03
is, and we don't know that question.
12:07
It depends whether it's the party that Nigel Farage wants to
12:11
produce or the party that he's going to produce if.
12:13
They stay away from the Tommy Robinsons in the far right.
12:15
I don't think I, I, that's, that's not enough myself, by the
12:19
way, for me, because obviously I'm not, I don't have Nigel
12:22
Farage's politics either, right? I, the question is whether he,
12:27
whether he's going to take that party and move it to war with
12:30
Danny Kruger back towards the Conservative Party and be a
12:33
group of people with whom the Conservative Party can have a
12:36
relationship. It wouldn't be my personal
12:38
relationship, right? So if he does that though, you
12:40
can see a lot of people saying right this.
12:42
Is our best. There's a lot of there's not
12:44
this, not what I think is going to happen.
12:45
So I think I, I don't think this party's, the Reform Party's got
12:51
to problems along with its big strength.
12:54
So it has a huge demographic. It has got a clear diagnosis of
12:59
what's wrong with the country, which I don't have to agree
13:00
with. But you know, there are bits
13:03
that I agree with, but I don't think it's the central thing.
13:05
But what it also has is it's, it's incredibly reliant on Nigel
13:08
Farage. And secondly, it is pulled
13:11
towards the online right. And Nigel Farage may or may not
13:15
have the power to keep it from that.
13:18
And I just don't know the answer to that question.
13:20
And I don't want to be part of, you know, an Elon Musk party or
13:25
a Donald Trump party. And personally, and I think the
13:31
chances are pretty high that's actually the party that Nigel
13:34
Farage is going to end up with. And.
13:37
But Theresa, if it's if it's a question of being out of power
13:41
in the wilderness for generations, possibly ceasing to
13:43
exist as an independent party, would you advocate doing a deal
13:48
with Nigel Farage on those? Grounds I'm not very big on
13:50
doing hypotheticals. So I think, I think that's not.
13:53
A deal because he doesn't think. We're the same.
13:56
Well, I think Reform are benefiting from a frustration of
13:59
the British public of a plague on both your houses to
14:03
Conservatives who they chopped out and then a very frustrated
14:05
with Labour. And that's what we're seeing.
14:09
We're seeing something a somewhat simplistic approach of
14:11
reform on how would they'd solve every problem going.
14:14
So we're not going to do that. It's an.
14:16
SDP flash in the pan potentially.
14:18
Don't we? I don't want to say flash in the
14:19
pan, no. Reforms much more than that.
14:22
So the the reason why reforms much more than that is that the
14:25
working class conservative vote with the small C conservative
14:29
vote is much larger than I think was the was the size of the SDP
14:34
willing middle class, particularly not in the early
14:36
1980s. So it's got a much more solid
14:39
basis and it probably can reach 3031%.
14:43
Now the thing with 3031% is in 1931, thirty percent produced an
14:48
absolute calamity for the Labour Party, right?
14:51
In 19, 2019, 32% produced an absolute calamity for Jeremy
14:58
Corbyn. In twenty, 2433% produced a
15:01
landslide for Keir Starmer. So it just depend, you know that
15:05
isn't, that is not an unbeatable proportion of the population.
15:09
Right, but Teresa, you didn't quite answer my question in if
15:12
it is the only way of the Tories surviving getting back into
15:15
power, do you do a deal with with Reform?
15:18
I don't think Kemi will do that at all.
15:20
Well, no, but Kemi might not be there.
15:22
We'll come on to that in a minute.
15:23
We had a we. Just so be clear, we had an
15:27
electoral pact with Danny Kruger until about 3 weeks ago.
15:30
So that answers your question, right?
15:32
So there are certainly people in Reform.
15:35
I had a long standing political relationship and friendship with
15:38
Tim Montgomery who's now in Reform.
15:41
We've had a, I had a tempestuous and very difficult political
15:45
relationship with Nadine Doris, but it was electoral pact.
15:48
OK. So the question of whether
15:51
Therese and I could have an electoral pact with, with some
15:54
of the people in Reform obviously because we've had one,
15:57
right? Could we, could we have an
15:59
alliance with some of the voters of Reform?
16:00
Yes, because conservative governments have relied on those
16:02
voters repeatedly. Well, I suppose, But the
16:05
question is the Reform is an organization.
16:06
So yeah, we do not yet know whether Reform is going to be
16:10
large enough. This is not probably a moot
16:12
question because Reform doesn't want a relationship with the
16:15
Conservative Party. So all these hypotheticals piled
16:18
on top of the others. I mean, it's not mere political
16:20
evasion not to answer this. But the Tories have no God-given
16:24
right to exist, do they? I mean, there are people, a lot
16:26
of people around here and you look at how empty the exhibition
16:29
hall is and we'll come back to that in a second, but there's
16:33
there is an existential crisis looming over this party.
16:36
I think the Conservatives are going to be still obviously
16:40
contesting the next election in a fulsome way and and deserve
16:43
to, you know, we have a proud history in this within our
16:48
country. We have had electoral success.
16:51
Yes, we are going through a very difficult moment.
16:54
I'm not pretending otherwise. But the party made a choice of
16:58
leader last year. Kemi is now at the stage
17:00
starting to roll out policies and I think that we just need to
17:04
continue to build with the aspect of credibility.
17:06
This party could cease to exist. It's completely profound, the
17:09
crisis and basically as the party has moved steadily to the
17:16
right to try to to win these vote, things got worse and
17:20
worse. Because the obvious thing the
17:22
Conservative Party offers is a broad coalition for people of
17:27
the, of the, of the rights. Well, it certainly does, but but
17:33
it's the, the, the truth is that the Conservative Party is needs
17:38
every needs everybody that was in it, right.
17:41
It needs to build a broad coalition and it the what the
17:45
the the one advantage that the Conservative Party retains over
17:50
reform is that I think it's possible for a form to get 32%
17:56
of the vote for a for a project of the right.
18:02
You can only get 40% if it becomes the seriously left wing
18:05
party on economics could do that, but then it would be very
18:10
off putting to all conservatives.
18:12
It would cease to be competing with conservatives in that way
18:15
and it'd become a broader party. The Conservative Party has, can
18:20
and has been a party of 40%. But this question you're asking
18:23
of us, it's reasonable to ask of us.
18:25
The governing party only has two or three points more than the
18:28
Conservative Party. So this I realised that there's
18:32
the whole thing is because they're in power.
18:34
This it's not unreasonable by the way, but because they're in
18:36
power, everybody turns up to watch the governing party, most
18:42
of whom were what Maurice Glassman called the lanyard
18:44
class. In other words, it's like
18:45
British Gas is there right rather than delicate.
18:50
But every all of the main political parties have got a big
18:55
challenge because it's fragmenting, which is Which is
18:57
why Keir Starmer won the last general election with an
19:01
objectively tiny proportion of voters, a massive landslide with
19:05
33% of. The voters just answer yes or no
19:07
question. Could the Conservative Party
19:09
cease to exist? Yes.
19:10
Oh, absolutely, yes. Yes or no, I think it will
19:12
continue. To I think it's but you asked me
19:14
yes or no, But is it likely? No, I don't think that's what's.
19:17
Going to happen. OK.
19:17
How long does Kemi Veit not have?
19:20
Well, I'm I'm interested by people just saying this is a
19:24
make or break conference. I think this is going to be a
19:27
good conference for Kemi. I think there are definitely,
19:31
I'm sure there are MPs who undoubtedly have already decided
19:36
that they want a different leader, but yeah, and a lot.
19:39
Of a lot are on manoeuvres. Aren't, as a significant number
19:41
I speak to, are also very conscious of the recent history,
19:45
don't believe that chopping and changing the captain is going to
19:48
make a difference. They have confidence in aspects
19:52
of Kenny's approach in trying to do some proper thinking.
19:56
I guess one of the things, I forgive me, Danny has got a
20:01
really interesting experience and of being in government or
20:06
not as a minister, but. Behind the scenes.
20:08
Guiding and I remember a discussion I had with Kemi, I
20:14
can't quite recall when, but it's just like what are the
20:16
challenges when you come into a cabinet role, when you come into
20:19
government several years down the line, you it's actually
20:24
difficult to bring new thinking. It's difficult to you've got
20:28
your legacy that or the manifestos back from 2010 and
20:32
that you have to deliver and you don't really have any choice in
20:35
that unless or don't take the role.
20:38
So this is the first opportunity in a while that the concertos
20:42
have had to not trash try and trash the past, but to have a
20:46
proper thing about what the conservative solution is for
20:50
this this phase of the 21st century.
20:52
People always say, by the way, just to back up that they would
20:55
say, you know, the Tories need a period in opposition in order to
20:59
think. And then you get into
21:00
opposition. Everyone goes, I can't believe
21:01
you're rethinking, you know, and didn't isn't that what everyone
21:06
told the Conservative body to do?
21:07
Every senior conservative you speak to here in the bars, at
21:10
the parties says that they think Kemi Baidenot will be out by
21:13
December, by May or certainly before the general election.
21:17
But I've certainly heard that, obviously, because, you know,
21:19
any political journalist has done that, has heard that, and
21:21
I've heard that too. Not sure.
21:23
I think it's a very sensible thing to do and.
21:27
But it's inevitable. No, it's not.
21:30
I think politics is never inevitable.
21:32
Do I think it's a high probability?
21:34
Yeah, I think it is a high probability just judging by
21:37
talking to Conservative MPs and activists.
21:41
The thing that holds it back are two things.
21:43
First of all, it's always harder to remove the leader than it
21:46
seems. There's a lot of people, for
21:48
example, who were on the front bench when it and they'll be as
21:51
a proportion that's larger right then who don't then want to
21:55
resign. They the moment somebody
21:58
proposes no confidence, they immediately come and say,
22:00
actually, we're on side. So it, it, it, it's hard to, if
22:04
you keep your relations in good order, it can be hard to do.
22:09
Boris Johnson had to really work very hard on tipping himself
22:12
out. But naturally the experiences if
22:16
you if you do have one of these votes of confidence, it's very
22:19
destabilising. I think it's she's clearly got
22:23
some difficulties because the party's trying casting around
22:25
for anything to do that will remote change the situation.
22:28
The only thing that would change it.
22:30
I think this isn't quite the right strategy, but actually I
22:32
don't think she's a bad public performer, for example.
22:38
And I think that the electorate, there's actually, you know, the
22:41
polling that I've seen, the electorate is they don't know
22:43
who she is. Yeah, literally every pollster
22:46
says. They that's true, but those
22:47
people don't know lots of political personalities.
22:49
I mean, we did a poll for the Times.
22:51
We were asking people what do you think of Keir Starmer?
22:53
And one of the people said, what's a Keir Starmer, right.
22:56
So people do people do people don't know who the leader of the
22:59
opposition is a lot of the time they didn't know Jeremy Corbyn
23:01
was for example, even though you're quite well in 2017.
23:04
So that's not my critical problem with that.
23:07
My critical problem is whether or not just when they do see
23:12
her, they, they, they actually quite like they're ready to hear
23:16
more, but they haven't heard more.
23:17
So there are two questions. Yeah, they.
23:18
Can't say a single. Thing can she force away onto
23:21
the political agenda. Hard but not impossible, more
23:23
made more difficult. If there's a kind of default
23:26
every time you do something, you're panicking sort of thing.
23:28
But so that's up to the media a little bit as to whether we're
23:32
going to cover what she says. And then when she does, do does
23:35
she do? Does she have a strategy that
23:37
broadens the Tory Party's appeal and doesn't just double down on
23:41
something that doesn't seem to me to work?
23:43
So the broadening, the appeal or re broadening is absolutely key.
23:46
And going back to some, I won't say back to basics as such, but
23:50
going back to something simpler, being on the side of people
23:53
trying to get on the housing ladder and challenging the cost
23:56
of living or tackling, that has to be the way forward.
23:59
And I do believe that's what we're seeing.
24:01
But given that we've all heard the open discussion about her
24:05
leadership, Rob Jenrick has been quite careful not to do an Andy
24:08
Burnham. He's not really put himself out
24:10
there as much as he perhaps could have done this week so
24:12
far. Other contenders?
24:14
James Cleverly? Mel Stride?
24:16
Chris Philp? Could they skip a generation, go
24:18
for Claire Coutinho? Katie Lamb?
24:20
I mean, who do you reckon might be the next leader?
24:23
Whoever and whenever? That I'm not going to go down
24:26
this route because I do think there are still actually rather
24:29
a lot of sensible heads left in the Conservative parliamentary
24:32
party. Who have just have seen what's
24:34
happened in the last five years and that chopping and changing
24:37
has not helped anybody. It's not helped the
24:39
conservatives. OK, who are you?
24:40
Impressed with? That's a different question.
24:44
I'll ask you that one as. Well, it's an entirely different
24:46
question. So I think James Cleverly has
24:50
got a broader appeal and I like that at A at a different end of
24:55
the spectrum, both two of the people you mentioned, Katie Lamb
24:58
and Claire Coutinho, great capable people.
25:00
So is. There an argument for skipping a
25:02
generation. I don't.
25:03
Well, I don't do. You mean by that 2024 intake?
25:09
There's clearly an argument. Yeah, potentially or just
25:12
younger. No, I don't think it would make
25:13
any difference to do that unless you unless you were able to
25:17
change your strategy at the same time, which the Conservative
25:20
Party I don't think is about to do.
25:22
So no is actually the answer. I I would not.
25:27
I think that setting down the route of removing can be to
25:30
replace it with someone else who people also won't have heard of
25:34
isn't a particularly good idea. Well, that.
25:36
Does that does apply to James Kevin as?
25:38
Well, sorry, I didn't say that it should drop by.
25:40
So you asked me who I was impressed by and what?
25:42
Recommends him to you. Is that you?
25:44
I'm not in favour of doing it at all, but if you.
25:46
Had to. But I don't have to.
25:49
OK, Therese well. If you had to.
25:52
I think there's some interesting thought processes.
25:55
I mean, Nick, Timothy, I think is brings a lot of interesting
25:59
thinking to, to to that. I mean people, a lot of people
26:05
have different backstories and how they've got into into
26:08
politics, got into Parliament. I think I don't want to set
26:13
hairs running particularly. I think Kemi made some changes
26:17
to her team. I think Helen Whiteley's doing a
26:19
good job at DWPI, think she's thinking things through in a
26:23
good systematic way. So I'm I'm not looking for other
26:27
people to try and knock Chemi off.
26:30
One aspect of her, what she's doing I really approve of, which
26:33
is she is giving a bit of serious thought to how things
26:36
will work. She does think that is a bit of
26:39
the conservative bill that I've, I've obviously said I don't
26:42
think it's quite the right strategy.
26:43
That bit I'm really strongly for.
26:45
So funny if the the bit that people have given her the most
26:48
grief for, which is, you know, why are we waiting for her to
26:51
say things? She does seem to me, and the
26:55
Wolfson report was an example of that on the ECHR, not a policy
26:58
that I agree with, but some trouble.
27:00
They took some trouble to, to see whether the policy, what the
27:04
implications of it would be. That's a good strategy.
27:06
Just finally, I mean, I know you've both attended a hell of a
27:10
lot of conferences. Is this the emptiest conference
27:13
that you've seen in terms of the conference stands here, the tiny
27:17
hall, the number of delegates? Well, I, my very first was back
27:21
in 1991 when I was a student. So I think it is, it is slow
27:27
down on members numbers. But what I always love, what I
27:31
love coming to conference is to get to talk to the members.
27:33
And understandably we were in government for so long, quite a
27:37
lot of people get squeezed out. You know, the lobbyists were
27:41
here, they're not. It was very busy last year, I
27:44
think because of the leadership contest and not quite the same
27:46
this year, but I actually enjoy the opportunity to go and talk
27:50
and see what's going on in the grass roots in different parts.
27:53
Of time. More time to talk to fewer
27:54
people. I went to the 1989 SDP
27:57
conference in Coventry and I was on the national executive and
28:01
almost nobody spoke and we had to go and rush into the bars to
28:04
get people so the debates would last long enough.
28:06
And then during the last, after the end of the leaders speech,
28:09
David Owen's speech, we all stood up, moved our chair back
28:12
and knocked the platform over. So this conference is not the
28:16
emptiest conference I've ever. But it's the emptiest Tory.
28:18
It's still. Expensive to come to Manchester.
28:21
I mean, genuinely, those sound like an invasion.
28:22
I haven't been around, but when you saw the pictures of Mel
28:26
Stride's conference, it clearly was.
28:29
Yeah, clearly was. And that's not that surprising.
28:31
I mean that all we're seeing is what you can read in the opinion
28:34
polls. Just.
28:35
The fringe is still busy, the fringe is busy, and the fringe
28:38
has always been the most interesting bit of.
28:39
Conference, I mean, I don't, I mean, I think that's a
28:42
reasonable observation, but I'm I'm not sure that it changes
28:45
anything to make it. We know that the Conservative
28:47
Party's in a lot of trouble, OK, But I still had, there's still
28:51
something in the Conservative idea which and potential breadth
28:55
that gives it some possibility for recovery, even though it
29:00
looks distant to me at the moment.
29:02
Danny Finkelstein, Torres Coffee, Thank you both very much
29:05
for joining us. That is it for the forecast.
29:06
Thank you very much for watching.