Latest / The Financial Exchange Show / Can a baby bonus really make Americans have more kids?
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- 0:00Speaker 1: The Financial Exchange is produced by Money Matters Radio and
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- 0:34Speaker 1: Exchange with Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane, your exclusive look
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- 1:01Speaker 1: a donation today. This is the Financial Exchange with Mike Armstrong,
- 1:06Speaker 1: and Paul Lane.
- 1:11Speaker 2: Good morning, Welcome back to the Financial Exchange on the
- 1:15Speaker 2: last Monday of June here as we head into the
- 1:17Speaker 2: July fourth holiday week, as a reminder, shortened trading week
- 1:21Speaker 2: here with markets closing at one pm on Thursday and
- 1:23Speaker 2: then all day Friday. It's Mike, Paul and Tucker with
- 1:26Speaker 2: you on a morning where we've got the Dow, SMPN,
- 1:29Speaker 2: NASDAC all positive to the tune of about a quarter
- 1:32Speaker 2: of one percent in early trading. We do have the
- 1:36Speaker 2: Senate making its way through the big beautiful bill over
- 1:41Speaker 2: in DC here and attempting to move that thing forward.
- 1:47Speaker 2: Generally speaking, we are looking at a lock in of
- 1:50Speaker 2: tax cuts, but you know, there's a little bit of
- 1:52Speaker 2: something in there for everybody. We're seeing some temporary cuts
- 1:55Speaker 2: on taxes on overtime as well as tips, some more
- 2:00Speaker 2: permanent tax cuts for seniors over the age of sixty
- 2:04Speaker 2: five who will not be getting an exclusion on their
- 2:06Speaker 2: Social Security but will be receiving a larger standard deduction
- 2:11Speaker 2: on their income, so in effect wiping out some of
- 2:14Speaker 2: those Social Security taxes cuts, the Medicaid cuts two, a
- 2:17Speaker 2: bunch of solar programs, wind programs, green you know, green
- 2:20Speaker 2: evy tax credits generally any other big highlights for you,
- 2:25Speaker 2: Paul from the.
- 2:25Speaker 3: Bill pumping up the child tax credit. Child tax credit
- 2:28Speaker 3: will be affected.
- 2:29Speaker 2: So you know, Paul's gonna have three more kids, as
- 2:31Speaker 2: we know, and so we will see. We're in the
- 2:35Speaker 2: midst of this kind of voter rama here in the Senate,
- 2:37Speaker 2: or will be soon, and we will see what guts
- 2:40Speaker 2: in what gets out. One of the biggest things that
- 2:43Speaker 2: you know, we took we took up in the first
- 2:46Speaker 2: hour of the program is that they're effectively the Republican
- 2:50Speaker 2: led Senate is waiving a magic wand here to basically
- 2:54Speaker 2: say that the effects of this bill are null and
- 2:57Speaker 2: void or nil on the overall budget because a lot
- 3:01Speaker 2: of the tax cuts that they're proposing are already law,
- 3:03Speaker 2: they're just renewing them. Normally, you would look at this
- 3:06Speaker 2: as some three point eight trillion dollars added to the deficit.
- 3:09Speaker 3: Over a decade.
- 3:10Speaker 2: They're doing some pretty interesting math over there in DC
- 3:13Speaker 2: at the moment, so we will see where it goes
- 3:15Speaker 2: from here. And that interesting math is drawing the objections.
- 3:18Speaker 2: Even if some Republicans with over the weekend rand Paul
- 3:21Speaker 2: voting against this bill as well as a few others
- 3:25Speaker 2: anything else catching your eyes in markets at the moment,
- 3:29Speaker 2: Bond prices are pretty stable at the time being. We've
- 3:32Speaker 2: got oil prices down again by about one percent.
- 3:35Speaker 4: No, it's a relatively quiet week in terms of economic activity. Really,
- 3:39Speaker 4: that job support on Thursday is the one that will
- 3:41Speaker 4: be most attuned to. This week pretty light in terms
- 3:44Speaker 4: of earnings and things like that.
- 3:45Speaker 2: Then let's turn over to the housing market. We talk
- 3:49Speaker 2: a lot about it because pretty darn interesting to people.
- 3:52Speaker 2: Everybody needs a place to live, and Baron's has a piece.
- 3:55Speaker 2: A shrinking housing market means upheaval for buyers out there.
- 4:00Speaker 2: I don't know that every article that's written about the
- 4:03Speaker 2: housing market these days is so dramatic. How does the
- 4:07Speaker 2: shrinking housing market mean upheaval for buyers these daies? Paul,
- 4:11Speaker 2: are you seeing upheaval in the housing markets? I'm not sure,
- 4:14Speaker 2: I am No.
- 4:15Speaker 3: I mean, it's this idea.
- 4:17Speaker 4: This comes back to an issue that's gone on with
- 4:21Speaker 4: Compass and Zillo in terms of the battle for listings
- 4:26Speaker 4: and access to viewing available homes online. But I feel
- 4:30Speaker 4: as if Mike, just to step back to your earlier point,
- 4:33Speaker 4: there's always this focus on trying to make a huge
- 4:36Speaker 4: call on the housing market at one direction or another.
- 4:39Speaker 4: It seems like everyone wants to be able to say
- 4:42Speaker 4: it's going to be you know, this two thousand and
- 4:44Speaker 4: eight situation of huge drops and you know, bargains everywhere,
- 4:49Speaker 4: or to the contrary. I mean, we did see to
- 4:51Speaker 4: be fair significant run up post twenty twenty in thus values,
- 4:54Speaker 4: so that was a period of time. But oftentimes, if
- 4:57Speaker 4: you look at historical transfer the housing market, it kind
- 4:59Speaker 4: of just putters along, you know, two or three percent
- 5:01Speaker 4: increase every single year, and that's where we seem to
- 5:05Speaker 4: be trending.
- 5:06Speaker 3: To me at this point in time.
- 5:08Speaker 4: I can't see a huge catalyst for change on mortgage
- 5:12Speaker 4: rate mortgage interest rates, to be fair, that's a very
- 5:14Speaker 4: difficult area to predict where they're going to trend. But yeah,
- 5:18Speaker 4: it seems as if they would they're going to stay
- 5:20Speaker 4: in a tighter range this year. We've talked about the
- 5:22Speaker 4: inventory issue for shows and shows and weeks on end,
- 5:26Speaker 4: and that isn't any clear resolution there. So I just
- 5:29Speaker 4: don't know if I can get behind any huge stake
- 5:31Speaker 4: up because all of the variables that you would measure
- 5:34Speaker 4: in terms of inventory, interest rates, and the amount of
- 5:37Speaker 4: people out there looking to buy and sell not a
- 5:40Speaker 4: huge change.
- 5:41Speaker 3: Really. Yeah.
- 5:42Speaker 2: One area it is making a bit of an upheaval
- 5:45Speaker 2: would be in the markets related to housing. Right, So
- 5:49Speaker 2: you do have home Depot, for example, closing on a
- 5:52Speaker 2: big purchase and attempt to draw their contractors in closer.
- 5:57Speaker 2: You have a compass you mentioned buying up a bunch
- 6:00Speaker 2: of smaller brokerages because in spite of what you might
- 6:03Speaker 2: say for the housing market itself, which again, while this
- 6:07Speaker 2: differs a lot on a state by state basis, on
- 6:10Speaker 2: a national basis, we're not looking all that different in
- 6:13Speaker 2: terms of inventory than what we looked like in twenty nineteen.
- 6:16Speaker 2: The big difference is pricing is way higher and interest
- 6:20Speaker 2: rates are way higher, So the eligible buyers to make
- 6:23Speaker 2: those purchases are not showing up in droves, and for
- 6:26Speaker 2: whatever reason, mainly probably because there's been no big economic
- 6:31Speaker 2: push for this to happen, those sellers just aren't in
- 6:34Speaker 2: a rush to sell. Buy and large are not cutting
- 6:36Speaker 2: prices as much as most would think, and they're just
- 6:38Speaker 2: kind of holding on at this point. But when you
- 6:42Speaker 2: talk about brokers or brokerages that make all of their
- 6:46Speaker 2: money on the transaction of a piece of real estate. Yeah,
- 6:50Speaker 2: it's been pretty rough for them, and so Compass has
- 6:52Speaker 2: been out there buying one piece that I found fast.
- 6:55Speaker 2: And when you guys go and look at real estate listenings,
- 6:57Speaker 2: where do you go?
- 7:00Speaker 3: Zillo? Okay? I do.
- 7:01Speaker 2: For whatever reason, I like Redfinn. I've always been on
- 7:04Speaker 2: redfin and so I just am used to the website.
- 7:07Speaker 2: I don't know why, but I use Redfind but Zillo
- 7:09Speaker 2: is way more popular. The unique visits to Zillo in
- 7:15Speaker 2: the first quarter of this year were two point four
- 7:18Speaker 2: billion unique visits. I think in a whole year. You
- 7:23Speaker 2: know how many real estate units get sold in a
- 7:26Speaker 2: given year, It's it's a fraction of that. And so
- 7:28Speaker 2: what Zilla was experiencing is kind of this moment where
- 7:33Speaker 2: they're almost a social media company.
- 7:36Speaker 3: Hmm. I mean, I don't know about you guys. This
- 7:39Speaker 3: is a hobby for me.
- 7:40Speaker 2: I like, you know, I went on vacation this weekend
- 7:43Speaker 2: out to Western Massachusets south to Lennox. I was browsing
- 7:46Speaker 2: real estate listings the whole time I was there. I'm
- 7:48Speaker 2: always curious. It's it's weird. It's a weird hobby. But
- 7:51Speaker 2: I'm apparently not unique in this one. Like I send
- 7:55Speaker 2: it to my wife and was like, Oh, check out
- 7:56Speaker 2: this place that we can't afford. This is pretty cool.
- 8:00Speaker 2: That is pretty interesting to be by the way, I
- 8:03Speaker 2: took a look at. According to similar Web, which is
- 8:05Speaker 2: like a website ranking tool that looks at traffic, in
- 8:08Speaker 2: the month of May, Zillo was the fifteenth most popular
- 8:11Speaker 2: website in the world.
- 8:12Speaker 4: Wow.
- 8:13Speaker 2: That puts them on like weather dot com status. They
- 8:17Speaker 2: had almost as many unique visits as the New York
- 8:19Speaker 2: Times during the month of May.
- 8:21Speaker 3: Like that is a huge I think opportunity.
- 8:25Speaker 2: Quite honestly, Again, I don't use Zillo very frequently, but
- 8:28Speaker 2: the only advertising I've ever seen on it is for realtors.
- 8:32Speaker 4: Big connection with realtors. I mean when I'm trying to
- 8:35Speaker 4: think of other ways you could diversify.
- 8:37Speaker 2: Furniture, Like how many people are looking at houses because
- 8:43Speaker 2: they like the design aesthetics of a certain house and sharing.
- 8:46Speaker 3: It with a group in that way, shape or form.
- 8:49Speaker 2: Like the way it's being talked about these days. People
- 8:51Speaker 2: are like, hey, you know, you should create Zillo more
- 8:53Speaker 2: of a social media platform where you can directly share
- 8:56Speaker 2: these things.
- 8:57Speaker 4: Landscaping, yeah, pool company loans.
- 9:01Speaker 2: So our loans existing advertisers on there because I just
- 9:05Speaker 2: saw a loan one. Yeah okay, yeah, VA loan all right,
- 9:07Speaker 2: So they're moving into new areas. But I mean that
- 9:10Speaker 2: type of web traffic in a market like this where
- 9:13Speaker 2: there are just not very many buyers, is indicative of
- 9:17Speaker 2: something else.
- 9:17Speaker 3: To me.
- 9:18Speaker 2: It's people are looking at this site not while being
- 9:22Speaker 2: serious about buying real estate, which I find fascinating and
- 9:25Speaker 2: also a remarkable business opportunity for Zilla to try to
- 9:28Speaker 2: take advantage of recent history would suggest that maybe they're
- 9:31Speaker 2: not so good at that. I remember, this is the
- 9:33Speaker 2: company that attempted to buy houses in what was one
- 9:37Speaker 2: of the best buyers market out there markets out there
- 9:40Speaker 2: in like twenty nineteen and twenty twenty, and then lost
- 9:44Speaker 2: money on it and had to close the unit down.
- 9:46Speaker 2: So they do not have a great track record on
- 9:50Speaker 2: this stuff. But I mean, this is your bread and butter, guys.
- 9:52Speaker 2: You are attracting visitors to your website. They are sharing
- 9:57Speaker 2: that stuff with their user group, with their friends. You
- 10:00Speaker 2: got to capitalize on that.
- 10:01Speaker 4: But if we were to play it the other way,
- 10:03Speaker 4: let's say you're the furniture company that you're mentioning that
- 10:05Speaker 4: you want to advertise is that the best way to
- 10:07Speaker 4: allocate your advertising dollars. You're a pool company or a
- 10:10Speaker 4: Lanscape company, is it to allocate that to Mike Armstrong,
- 10:13Speaker 4: who's really just kind of on a pipe dream? Or
- 10:16Speaker 4: I've done the same thing too. Well, what if we
- 10:18Speaker 4: move down to North Carolina?
- 10:19Speaker 1: You know what?
- 10:19Speaker 4: You go down that road of sort of what we
- 10:22Speaker 4: look like. It's like the exercise you go through when
- 10:24Speaker 4: you buy the lottery ticket out. This is the first
- 10:26Speaker 4: thing I do with it? Is that a serious qualified buyer?
- 10:28Speaker 3: I don't know.
- 10:29Speaker 4: I'm just sort of kicking that around. Do they get
- 10:31Speaker 4: the return on it as much as they do with
- 10:34Speaker 4: the realtor side where that's where Razil really makes his
- 10:37Speaker 4: money is hooking up listings with realtors.
- 10:40Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I don't know. Yeah, I guess. I
- 10:42Speaker 2: genuinely don't know. But I would think by and large,
- 10:46Speaker 2: you've got a oftentimes wealthy demographic there, and you're posting,
- 10:51Speaker 2: you would end up advertising against stuff that can in
- 10:55Speaker 2: no way be deemed controversial. MM, Like you go on YouTube, Well,
- 11:01Speaker 2: I might accidentally advertise next to some g hotty video
- 11:05Speaker 2: or some terrible, terrible thing that I don't want my
- 11:07Speaker 2: advertisement to appear next to You're not gonna get that
- 11:10Speaker 2: on Zilla.
- 11:10Speaker 4: Two point four billion is a lot of eyeballs.
- 11:13Speaker 3: There to go out. It is a lot of eyeballs.
- 11:15Speaker 5: S extra to the number six one, seven, three, six,
- 11:17Speaker 5: two thirteen eighty five simply puts Eyebrowzillo all the time.
- 11:21Speaker 3: So fun, yeah, fun.
- 11:22Speaker 2: I genuinely like I use it in the same way
- 11:26Speaker 2: that I think people use Facebook frequently, which is just escapism, uh,
- 11:30Speaker 2: just entertaining value.
- 11:32Speaker 3: So interesting, interesting place that they find themselves in.
- 11:35Speaker 2: But yeah, the housing market if you're looking for that
- 11:37Speaker 2: deal of the century still ain't have.
- 11:39Speaker 5: You uh sorry, have you seen Speaking of social media,
- 11:42Speaker 5: do you follow Zillo Gone Wild? No, check it out.
- 11:46Speaker 5: It's very interesting listenings mainly just these like massive, massive
- 11:51Speaker 5: mansions with like amazing amenities. But Zillo Gone Wild is same.
- 11:55Speaker 5: I'm looking for the follow.
- 11:57Speaker 2: I want to find the opposite of like toilets and
- 12:01Speaker 2: kitchens just horrible designs on zoo.
- 12:04Speaker 5: Oh yeah, no, you get some of that. You'll get
- 12:05Speaker 5: some of that that too. It's not just like luxury things.
- 12:08Speaker 5: I'm very interesting homes.
- 12:10Speaker 3: Let's take a quick break.
- 12:11Speaker 2: When we come back, we're gonna be playing a little
- 12:13Speaker 2: bit of trivia here next on the Financial Exchange.
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- 12:56Speaker 5: All right, it's time for trivia here on the Financial Exchange.
- 12:59Speaker 5: And today is Michael Phelps' fortieth birthday. Phelps is the
- 13:03Speaker 5: most decorated Olympian in history. Is he holds the records
- 13:07Speaker 5: for the record for most medals and most gold medals.
- 13:11Speaker 5: So trivia question today, how many gold medals did Michael
- 13:15Speaker 5: Phelps win in his Olympic career? Once again, how many
- 13:20Speaker 5: gold medals? Gold medals did Michael Phelps win in his
- 13:25Speaker 5: Olympic career? Be the fifth person today to text us
- 13:29Speaker 5: at six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five
- 13:32Speaker 5: with the correct answer, and you win a Financial Exchange
- 13:34Speaker 5: Show T shirt.
- 13:35Speaker 3: Once again.
- 13:36Speaker 5: The fifth correct response to text us to the number
- 13:39Speaker 5: six one seven three six two thirteen eighty five will
- 13:42Speaker 5: win that T shirt. See complete contest rules at Financial
- 13:45Speaker 5: Exchange Show dot com.
- 13:46Speaker 4: Such a swarms have such an unfair advantage with that
- 13:49Speaker 4: gold medal.
- 13:50Speaker 3: They yeah, jerks like Usain Bolt.
- 13:54Speaker 4: You know he can't win like seven eight different races
- 13:57Speaker 4: like stylistically medical phelps gain.
- 14:01Speaker 2: Question for each of you, what were what were your
- 14:03Speaker 2: first summer jobs or what types of summer jobs you guys?
- 14:06Speaker 3: Camp counselor camp counselor that's pretty solid.
- 14:08Speaker 5: Tucker, uh valet for a car dealership, service department like it?
- 14:13Speaker 1: You?
- 14:14Speaker 2: Yeah, primarily office copy boy.
- 14:17Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, I've done a lot of that too, But
- 14:20Speaker 3: in either case, your time. Copies, copies and cop I'm
- 14:24Speaker 3: strong copies and coffee, baby. I was good at filing too.
- 14:29Speaker 4: This paperwork that's been here since the nineties. Who wants
- 14:32Speaker 4: you to sort through?
- 14:32Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, precisely. Uh So.
- 14:35Speaker 2: According to New York Times, the rite of passage summer
- 14:38Speaker 2: job is disappearing, and I'm kind of surprised by this,
- 14:43Speaker 2: and it goes it goes against what I had been
- 14:47Speaker 2: saying about the labor market, because we've been focusing a
- 14:49Speaker 2: lot recently on the difficulty that college grads are seeing
- 14:54Speaker 2: out there finding a job. And to be clear, the
- 14:57Speaker 2: unemployment rate for twenty to twenty five four year olds
- 15:00Speaker 2: with a college degree is sitting around twenty fourteen levels,
- 15:05Speaker 2: which I consider high. Like that, that sounds pretty darn
- 15:08Speaker 2: high to me, given the state of labor market in
- 15:12Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, and according to York Times, the unemployment
- 15:16Speaker 2: rate now for teenagers is sitting around thirteen percent. Now,
- 15:22Speaker 2: the unemployment rate for teenagers is always pretty darn high,
- 15:28Speaker 2: like it never gets terribly low. They're not always looking
- 15:32Speaker 2: for work. But I'm looking at the data series here
- 15:36Speaker 2: from the Saint Louis Federal Reserve and it is sitting
- 15:38Speaker 2: right at thirteen point four percent, which is a high
- 15:41Speaker 2: for the May time period, you know, going back several years.
- 15:46Speaker 2: I will also say, however, that compared to post Great Recession,
- 15:52Speaker 2: this is this is nothing. So in May of twenty ten,
- 15:56Speaker 2: the unemployment rate for sixteen to nineteen year olds was
- 15:58Speaker 2: twenty six and a half percent. So there's a different
- 16:02Speaker 2: story going on here. I'm not saying this doesn't exist,
- 16:04Speaker 2: and the youth unemployment rate has dramatically increased. Here's why
- 16:07Speaker 2: I'm kind of surprised by all this, though, is We've
- 16:09Speaker 2: been talking at length about the number of deportations, the
- 16:13Speaker 2: number of people who are working in generally lower wage
- 16:17Speaker 2: jobs that can no longer do so because of either
- 16:20Speaker 2: threat of deportation, family members being deported, or just crackdowns generally.
- 16:24Speaker 2: I would have thought that would have opened up opportunities
- 16:27Speaker 2: for American sixteen to nineteen year olds. You are not
- 16:31Speaker 2: seeing that so much. One of the explanations that's given here, though,
- 16:35Speaker 2: is a drop in travel this summer. Sure, there is
- 16:39Speaker 2: being reported a pretty significant drop in vacation travel to
- 16:43Speaker 2: large portions of the country, especially from Canadians and Europeans
- 16:46Speaker 2: coming here, and so maybe that explains some of it,
- 16:51Speaker 2: but I don't know. This doesn't really fit within the
- 16:54Speaker 2: narrative that I had been spinning.
- 16:56Speaker 4: I would have predicted the parallel to I believe it
- 16:58Speaker 4: was the summer of twenty twenty one, where we're year
- 17:01Speaker 4: post COVID, where I believe it was difficult for international
- 17:05Speaker 4: visas to be obtained for some work. And I thought
- 17:07Speaker 4: we'd have similar sorts of parallels to that, where you
- 17:10Speaker 4: have these people from other countries that perhaps are more
- 17:13Speaker 4: hesitant to come over to the United States because of
- 17:15Speaker 4: some of the immigration reform, and as a result, I
- 17:18Speaker 4: remember in that summer, it opened up huge opportunities for
- 17:21Speaker 4: these the demographic that we're talking about here, those younger workers.
- 17:24Speaker 4: There was signing bonuses and other sorts of efforts really
- 17:27Speaker 4: to try and get these teenagers to work. And here
- 17:30Speaker 4: we sit, you know, three or four summers later, and
- 17:34Speaker 4: we're in a point where it seems like it is
- 17:36Speaker 4: a tighter labor market. And I'm just surprised by that,
- 17:38Speaker 4: because as much as perhaps international tourism is down, still
- 17:42Speaker 4: much of the domestic tourism seasonally in the Hamptons or
- 17:45Speaker 4: Kipcot or other areas in the country seems like it's
- 17:48Speaker 4: still there and out in force.
- 17:51Speaker 2: So again, this one is very different from the college
- 17:54Speaker 2: grad story because again the severity of what we've experienced recently. Again,
- 17:59Speaker 2: the unemployment rate for sixteen to nineteen year olds did
- 18:05Speaker 2: not even get below like twenty percent until twenty fourteen,
- 18:09Speaker 2: So for us to be sitting at thirteen now is
- 18:12Speaker 2: not really absolutely shocking. It's just a bit surprising to
- 18:16Speaker 2: me given where we are with other things. I guess
- 18:19Speaker 2: I keep going back to the same thing to blame here, right,
- 18:22Speaker 2: If we're going to bring up AI and automation as
- 18:26Speaker 2: a source of blame for white excuse me for college
- 18:30Speaker 2: grads that are level pantry level positions white collar jobs.
- 18:35Speaker 2: There that might be happening in those blue collar summer
- 18:39Speaker 2: jobs too.
- 18:40Speaker 3: I mean, do you but it's like the local.
- 18:41Speaker 4: Ice cream store, the bagel place, like, do.
- 18:44Speaker 3: They the likely ice cream short are they going to?
- 18:46Speaker 3: The last time I chop.
- 18:49Speaker 2: The Needham train station ice cream shop did not have
- 18:53Speaker 2: an ordering kiosk last time I checked, and the line
- 18:56Speaker 2: was also usually pretty long, So you right there.
- 18:59Speaker 3: I don't don't at the train station. Yeah, yeah, I
- 19:02Speaker 3: don't know that. I'm gonna go on the train more. Yeah. Yeah.
- 19:06Speaker 2: There's like four Needham train stops, so I'm gonna make
- 19:08Speaker 2: you guess which one it is.
- 19:09Speaker 3: But there's a.
- 19:11Speaker 2: Top notch ice cream shop right at the train station
- 19:13Speaker 2: in need They do not have an ordering kiosk. They
- 19:17Speaker 2: only started taking credit cards like last year, So yeah,
- 19:21Speaker 2: there should be plenty of those jobs as far as
- 19:23Speaker 2: I'm concerned.
- 19:23Speaker 4: It was so hard in twenty ten to get a
- 19:25Speaker 4: summer job. Flashbacks to that.
- 19:26Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break here. When we come back,
- 19:29Speaker 2: we'll have the trivia winner for you next.
- 19:41Speaker 1: Bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio. Every day,
- 19:45Speaker 1: it's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 19:51Speaker 1: Time now for Wall Street. Watch a complete look at
- 19:54Speaker 1: what's moving market so far today right here on the
- 19:58Speaker 1: Financial Exchange Radio Network.
- 20:00Speaker 5: Markets in positive territory adding to their recent record highs
- 20:04Speaker 5: as investors ready for a shortened holiday trading week highlighted
- 20:07Speaker 5: by jobs report on Thursday. Trade also back on the
- 20:11Speaker 5: spotlight after Canada withdrew its digital service tax and an
- 20:14Speaker 5: effort to move trade talks along with the US. And
- 20:17Speaker 5: of course, we await developments on President Trump's Big Beautiful
- 20:21Speaker 5: Bill for final passage in the Senate. Right now, Dow
- 20:25Speaker 5: is up by nearly half a percent, or two hundred
- 20:27Speaker 5: and ten points. SMP five hundred is up a quarter
- 20:30Speaker 5: percent higher, NASDAC up by two tenths of one percent.
- 20:33Speaker 5: Russell two thousand is edging two points higher. Ten yurar
- 20:37Speaker 5: treasure reeled down by one basis point at four point
- 20:39Speaker 5: two six percent and crude oil for treating one percent
- 20:43Speaker 5: today trading at sixty four dollars in eighty two cents
- 20:46Speaker 5: a barrel. Maderner now up by over three percent after
- 20:50Speaker 5: the local biotech company's experimental flu vaccine showed a positive
- 20:54Speaker 5: response in a late stage trial, opening the way for
- 20:58Speaker 5: the standalone shot and a combination COVID shot. Meanwhile, the
- 21:01Speaker 5: Justice Department settled its lawsuit challenging Hewlett Packard enterprises fourteen
- 21:07Speaker 5: billion dollar deal to buy Juniper. Hewlett Packard shares are
- 21:10Speaker 5: up by thirteen percent, while Juniper stock is climbing over
- 21:14Speaker 5: eight percent higher. Elsewhere, home Depots said that it is
- 21:17Speaker 5: buying GMS, a building products distributor, for about four point
- 21:22Speaker 5: three billion dollars as the retailer moves to draw more
- 21:25Speaker 5: sales from contractors and other home professionals. Home Depot shares
- 21:29Speaker 5: are pulling back slightly, while GMS shares are up by
- 21:33Speaker 5: eleven percent. Oracle is up by five percent after a
- 21:38Speaker 5: recent filing showed a Cloud deal that would add over
- 21:41Speaker 5: thirty billion dollars annually, and Disney shares rising over one
- 21:46Speaker 5: percent higher after Jeffrey's upgraded the stock to buy from hold,
- 21:49Speaker 5: where the investment firm said Disney's Park's business is holding
- 21:52Speaker 5: up well and that the cruise revenue could jump in
- 21:55Speaker 5: the next year when two new ships are launched, Briscila.
- 22:00Speaker 5: And that is Wall Street Watch. And in the previous segment,
- 22:03Speaker 5: we asked you the trivia question how many gold medals
- 22:05Speaker 5: did Michael Phelps win in his Olympic career? That would
- 22:09Speaker 5: be twenty three gold medals. Trev from Revere, Mass is
- 22:13Speaker 5: our winner today taking home a Financial Exchange Show teachhert
- 22:16Speaker 5: Congrats to Trev. We play trivia every day here in
- 22:19Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
- 22:23Speaker 5: Show dot com.
- 22:24Speaker 3: Paul Wealthy Americans are not feeling wealthy.
- 22:28Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal has a piece of a few different
- 22:30Speaker 2: interviews that they've done as well as some surveys that
- 22:33Speaker 2: are out there on just talking to the wealthiest Americans
- 22:37Speaker 2: that are out there. And to be clear what we're
- 22:39Speaker 2: talking about here, if you are making one hundred and
- 22:43Speaker 2: thirty thousand dollars per year or more, that puts you
- 22:47Speaker 2: in the top third of income producing households.
- 22:53Speaker 3: And when you go ask those people, hey, how do
- 22:57Speaker 3: you feel? Do you feel wealthy?
- 22:58Speaker 2: Only about twenty six percent said that they were better
- 23:02Speaker 2: off than a year ago. That's the about lowest level
- 23:06Speaker 2: since the depth of the financial crisis back in two
- 23:08Speaker 2: thousand and nine in terms of how people are feeling.
- 23:10Speaker 2: This was a survey that was conducted through through June.
- 23:14Speaker 2: What do you make of a study like this? Is
- 23:16Speaker 2: it I feel like I could put us positive slant
- 23:20Speaker 2: on this, which is, you know, Americans are always trying
- 23:23Speaker 2: to find that next buck and improve their lives more,
- 23:26Speaker 2: and that's maybe uniquely American, maybe not the other side
- 23:30Speaker 2: of this would be that we are horrible savers, not
- 23:34Speaker 2: very good with our personal finances, and therefore might be
- 23:37Speaker 2: able to pull in three hundred thousand dollars and still
- 23:39Speaker 2: struggle financially.
- 23:41Speaker 4: I would say that it's probably more that for the
- 23:44Speaker 4: former that you said that there is always this competition
- 23:48Speaker 4: to keep up with the jones is and sort of,
- 23:50Speaker 4: you know, try and get to the next threshold of wealth.
- 23:54Speaker 4: But also to me, it's a commentary on the affordability
- 23:58Speaker 4: piece that we've talked about the housing market a lot,
- 24:00Speaker 4: where yes, these seven percent thirty year fixed mortgage historically,
- 24:05Speaker 4: there are many listeners who I'm sure would tell us
- 24:07Speaker 4: that their first mortgage was much higher on a percent
- 24:10Speaker 4: basis from an interest rate perspective. However, the affordability pairs
- 24:14Speaker 4: the two things together. The fact that home prices in
- 24:16Speaker 4: many areas have gone up fifty percent over the last
- 24:19Speaker 4: five years, and you have borrowing costs that are twice
- 24:22Speaker 4: as high as they were at that initial start in
- 24:25Speaker 4: twenty nineteen or twenty twenty. Those two combinations combined make
- 24:29Speaker 4: it so that it is more challenging for those people
- 24:33Speaker 4: to afford in those wealthier areas. Look at the Greater
- 24:36Speaker 4: Boston area that you know we broadcast out of. It's
- 24:39Speaker 4: really dang competitive to buy a house around here. You
- 24:42Speaker 4: are up against people that are mentioned in this article,
- 24:45Speaker 4: whether it's IPO windfalls, executives who are making huge top
- 24:49Speaker 4: dollar money, and the school teachers you know in the
- 24:53Speaker 4: Greater Boston area, it's just harder and harder for them
- 24:56Speaker 4: to be able to keep up. The one statistic was
- 24:59Speaker 4: mentioned here, ninety percent of households that have the top
- 25:02Speaker 4: ten percent of income owned a Sorry, people who had
- 25:07Speaker 4: the top ten percent of income nationally, ninety percent of
- 25:10Speaker 4: them own households in twenty twenty two. That's a heavy percentage,
- 25:12Speaker 4: nine out of ten, but that rate was ninety five
- 25:15Speaker 4: percent in two thousand and one. It's not enough anymore
- 25:18Speaker 4: to be over that one hundred and thirty thousand in
- 25:21Speaker 4: some areas.
- 25:21Speaker 2: I keep going back to, there is no dollar threshold
- 25:25Speaker 2: that magically makes you financially well off. That's because I'm
- 25:32Speaker 2: sure you've met with it too. But like I go
- 25:35Speaker 2: back to this scenario, right, I have definitely met people
- 25:38Speaker 2: earning more than half a million dollars a year who
- 25:41Speaker 2: feel like they're tight, who are objectively objectively tight. Yeah,
- 25:46Speaker 2: how do you have this much debt when you are
- 25:48Speaker 2: pulling in this much? And you know it's private tuition,
- 25:52Speaker 2: it's you know sports, you know, club sports for the kids,
- 25:55Speaker 2: it's summer camps, it's it's these things that are incredibly
- 25:59Speaker 2: expensive and ultimately optional really, but it all comes back
- 26:04Speaker 2: down to you know, good versus bad savers, and you
- 26:09Speaker 2: know where that where that all goes.
- 26:13Speaker 3: We we have a piece.
- 26:14Speaker 2: This month from the Armstrong Advisory Group and it's not
- 26:19Speaker 2: directly to you know, raising kids or anything like that,
- 26:22Speaker 2: but it's all about retiring and putting together that checklist.
- 26:26Speaker 2: And obviously it's the last day of June, so I'm
- 26:28Speaker 2: going to talk about this one a little bit and
- 26:30Speaker 2: give you the details on how to get your copy
- 26:32Speaker 2: of this guide. But we put together what we hope
- 26:35Speaker 2: to be, you know, a pretty concise checklist that you
- 26:39Speaker 2: can go through piece by piece.
- 26:40Speaker 3: And it's not that you'll be able to say, oh.
- 26:44Speaker 2: Yeah, I now have gone through each one of these
- 26:47Speaker 2: and fully understand all of them. But it's more to say, hey,
- 26:50Speaker 2: if there's any of these you haven't gotten a full
- 26:52Speaker 2: understanding of, you might want to seriously consider doing that
- 26:56Speaker 2: before you pull the trigger on retirement. You know, addressing
- 27:01Speaker 2: outstanding debt is a common one there, Paul, and I
- 27:04Speaker 2: think there's this real push from pre retirees. It's like, God,
- 27:08Speaker 2: this would just be so much easier if I didn't
- 27:10Speaker 2: have my mortgage. But there are pitfalls there, right, you know,
- 27:13Speaker 2: you speak to somebody and it's like, oh, yeah, finally
- 27:15Speaker 2: got rid of that mortgage that I was paying. It's like, yeah,
- 27:18Speaker 2: but you were down to all the principle on a
- 27:20Speaker 2: three and a half percent interest rate. In the meantime,
- 27:23Speaker 2: you have a nine percent car loan that's sitting out there.
- 27:25Speaker 2: What was truly better for your overall financial situation? I
- 27:29Speaker 2: know that was a big monthly payment that we knocked
- 27:31Speaker 2: off the list, But is that the best way to
- 27:34Speaker 2: address your outstanding debt?
- 27:37Speaker 3: There's I think a couple of ways.
- 27:39Speaker 2: To think about your retirement date, right, And I've had
- 27:42Speaker 2: this conversation with folks, But do I have a retirement
- 27:45Speaker 2: age or do I have a retirement lifestyle goal? And
- 27:50Speaker 2: you can have either Like some people, it's no. At
- 27:53Speaker 2: sixty five, I've been breaking my back for this job.
- 27:55Speaker 2: I am done at sixty five. The second I can
- 27:57Speaker 2: get on Medicare, this job is over. You just tell
- 27:59Speaker 2: me how much which I can spend, and I will
- 28:01Speaker 2: make my life work with that. For others that' say, hey,
- 28:03Speaker 2: this is pay me a picture of the lifestyle that
- 28:05Speaker 2: I want to have. How much savings do I need
- 28:09Speaker 2: to do between now and retirement in order to make
- 28:11Speaker 2: that happen? And both are perfectly reasonable scenarios, I think,
- 28:14Speaker 2: But you have to kind of do the work and
- 28:16Speaker 2: answer which one am I trying to accomplish. Here our
- 28:20Speaker 2: new guide for the month of June. As I mentioned,
- 28:22Speaker 2: it's your retirement preparation checklist. It's just a great way
- 28:26Speaker 2: to take a look piece by piece. If you're I
- 28:29Speaker 2: would say, anywhere within the next fifteen years of staring
- 28:31Speaker 2: down that retirement number. Hey, have I thought of all
- 28:35Speaker 2: of these different considerations before I go and pull that
- 28:39Speaker 2: oftentimes permanent trigger of walking away from my income source.
- 28:43Speaker 2: Give us a ring at eight hundred three nine three
- 28:45Speaker 2: four zero zero one will hook you up with your
- 28:47Speaker 2: free copy of our new guide for the month of June. Again,
- 28:51Speaker 2: it's the last day of the month, last opportunity to
- 28:52Speaker 2: get the guide eight hundred three nine three four zero
- 28:56Speaker 2: zero one.
- 28:57Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory, a registered
- 29:00Speaker 1: investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any Armstrong
- 29:03Speaker 1: Guide a specific financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult your
- 29:06Speaker 1: own financial, tax and the state planning advisors before making
- 29:08Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
- 29:11Speaker 1: advisory services.
- 29:14Speaker 3: Paul and Tucker? What the is this? Financial Times? Who
- 29:19Speaker 3: is writing this? Bloomberg market Watch? Market Match wants to
- 29:23Speaker 3: know how much would they need to pay you to
- 29:25Speaker 3: have another kid?
- 29:28Speaker 5: Let's see, it's more than a thousand dollars, more than
- 29:31Speaker 5: a grand the Trump the MAGA account is what's going
- 29:36Speaker 5: on there?
- 29:37Speaker 3: It's a thousand bucks. Isn't going to get you too far?
- 29:40Speaker 2: No, We've talked a lot about this, but I don't
- 29:42Speaker 2: know what the magic number is to actually increase the
- 29:45Speaker 2: birth rate.
- 29:46Speaker 5: One hundred and fifty thousand dollars I would consider it.
- 29:48Speaker 5: I'm not even kidding five hundred.
- 29:50Speaker 2: Market market Watch asks this question of, you know, can
- 29:53Speaker 2: a baby bon bonus really make Americans have more kids?
- 29:58Speaker 3: A baby bonus in and of its self.
- 30:00Speaker 2: Probably not, because to that point it'd have to be
- 30:04Speaker 2: pretty substantial to move the needle for most people.
- 30:07Speaker 4: I'll go further with Meg that might definitely not not,
- 30:10Speaker 4: probably not, definitely not.
- 30:12Speaker 2: I guess the question that mark Watch raises is like,
- 30:16Speaker 2: there probably are some families there where Yeah, if you
- 30:19Speaker 2: throw a few grant them, then like, yeah, we're going
- 30:22Speaker 2: from seven kids to eight kids, and that's a meaningful
- 30:25Speaker 2: impact to me. My point would be, if you actually
- 30:29Speaker 2: are going to try and develop policy that is going
- 30:32Speaker 2: to increase your birth rate, prepared for it to be
- 30:36Speaker 2: outrageously expensive, because it is probably not just a cash bonus.
- 30:39Speaker 2: It is probably a combination of subsidized child care, additional paid.
- 30:45Speaker 3: Leave for mothers and fathers.
- 30:48Speaker 2: It is going to be very, very costly, and I
- 30:52Speaker 2: don't know that society is willing to pay that cost
- 30:55Speaker 2: to try and increase the birth rate. There have been
- 30:57Speaker 2: a number of studies that have looked at this in
- 30:58Speaker 2: other countries, and half measures don't get the job done.
- 31:03Speaker 2: There have been a few success stories, but they've done
- 31:05Speaker 2: the things that I've talked about. It's like, oh, yeah,
- 31:07Speaker 2: free childcare for everyone up to a certain age, massively
- 31:11Speaker 2: long paid leave, and just a societal shift towards yeah,
- 31:15Speaker 2: we're going to really address this issue. In those cases,
- 31:18Speaker 2: there have been some success, but it's a lot of money.
- 31:22Speaker 4: I wasn't even aware that there had been successes. I
- 31:24Speaker 4: know South Korea has tried and failed on some of
- 31:26Speaker 4: these initiatives, and there's some other countries out there that
- 31:28Speaker 4: are escaping me right now that have tried.
- 31:30Speaker 3: It appears that AI is just gonna be cheaper. I
- 31:34Speaker 3: just as sad as that sounds. AI might be cheaper.
- 31:38Speaker 3: There's also the society.
- 31:39Speaker 4: You know, it's it's really not anyone's business to make
- 31:44Speaker 4: an incentive or I just don't know if you can
- 31:46Speaker 4: change societal views on it. That's it's people's individual decision,
- 31:50Speaker 4: and those have shifted dramatically regardless of the cost that
- 31:55Speaker 4: I don't know even with all the investment in infrastructure,
- 31:58Speaker 4: can you really correct, correct change the way people view things?
- 32:01Speaker 4: And it's ultimately I'm never it's it's up to anybody.
- 32:05Speaker 2: Paul's you want to bring back policies of shaming people
- 32:07Speaker 2: who don't have.
- 32:08Speaker 4: Kids, I'm not at your not touching that thing with
- 32:11Speaker 4: a ten football on anyone to do whatever the heck
- 32:13Speaker 4: they want.
- 32:14Speaker 3: You can quote me on that, you can call.
- 32:15Speaker 4: Me and they can do whatever the heck they want.
- 32:17Speaker 2: Let's take a quick break when we come back, a
- 32:19Speaker 2: bit of snacker Latin.
- 32:20Speaker 3: I promise not to put more words in Paul's mouth.
- 32:23Speaker 4: Quote me on that.
- 32:25Speaker 1: Find daily interviews and full shows of the Financial Exchange
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- 33:04Speaker 5: This segment of the Financial exchange is brought to in
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- 33:35Speaker 2: Paul, I've got a problem with some reporting from New
- 33:38Speaker 2: York Times. There's nothing to do with the accuracy or
- 33:40Speaker 2: political bias.
- 33:43Speaker 3: The title of the article is gen Z.
- 33:45Speaker 2: It turns out is great at saving for retirement and
- 33:49Speaker 2: the oldest gen Z is twenty eight years old. There
- 33:51Speaker 2: was nothing nice written about millennials until we all turned
- 33:55Speaker 2: like forty.
- 33:55Speaker 3: What is happening here?
- 33:57Speaker 2: We're not allowed to complement twenty eight year olds on
- 33:59Speaker 2: their financial discipline? Like does this actually prove that the
- 34:02Speaker 2: millennials were the worst generation?
- 34:05Speaker 3: They were just perhaps the whipping boy uh.
- 34:08Speaker 2: Man that is disappointing apparently, though, according to some actual
- 34:13Speaker 2: data and not just interviews, gen zers are actually saving money.
- 34:18Speaker 2: They're being financially disciplined, they're putting money into their four
- 34:21Speaker 2: oh one ks. According to Tia Kraft, a report from
- 34:26Speaker 2: one of the large retirement retirement well service providers what
- 34:32Speaker 2: do we call ti craft, Yeah, something like that, the
- 34:36Speaker 2: twenty percent of gen zers are saving for retirement at
- 34:39Speaker 2: this stage. They're also contributing to four to one K
- 34:42Speaker 2: plans at higher rates than millennials did when we first
- 34:45Speaker 2: entered the workforce, according to a twenty twenty three Vanguard study. So,
- 34:49Speaker 2: I don't know what it is about these loser gen
- 34:52Speaker 2: zers who don't spend their money and instead save for retirement.
- 34:56Speaker 2: Who even cares about retirement? It's like sixty years away.
- 34:59Speaker 2: Guys don't worry about it. Yet they are not yolo ing.
- 35:04Speaker 2: That's because they're just money there for one case.
- 35:06Speaker 4: You know how we put the negatives, man, they're just
- 35:07Speaker 4: stuck looking at their phones. They're not out there and
- 35:09Speaker 4: doing stuff, be an active and then you know.
- 35:12Speaker 2: So we can still calling we can still call them losers,
- 35:14Speaker 2: but they're not financially or financially financially.
- 35:18Speaker 3: Responsible losers, that is what we'll call them.
- 35:21Speaker 4: But the the auto enrollment feature all jokes aside the
- 35:26Speaker 4: auto en roman feature on four one case I think
- 35:28Speaker 4: is a fantastic.
- 35:29Speaker 3: Might be a contributor that contributes to some of this, though.
- 35:35Speaker 1: They're like, oh, I guess.
- 35:38Speaker 3: The other the other that's a pay stab.
- 35:42Speaker 5: Direct deposit. What the other piece is If you look
- 35:45Speaker 5: at the market history too. Here millennials are coming out
- 35:49Speaker 5: in the timeframe that's post two thousand and eight, perhaps
- 35:51Speaker 5: more fears about the market. You've seen over the course
- 35:54Speaker 5: of the last geeze ten to fifteen years a remarkably
- 35:59Speaker 5: strong You go back fifteen years to twenty ten on,
- 36:02Speaker 5: you've seen almost very little financial turmoil relative to what
- 36:06Speaker 5: we saw in two thousand and eight. Perhaps that is
- 36:09Speaker 5: part of that equation as well.
- 36:11Speaker 2: And apparently more people are also contributing to an IRA
- 36:16Speaker 2: than millennials did. So of those who contribute to an
- 36:19Speaker 2: IRA or ROTH, forty one percent where under the age
- 36:21Speaker 2: of forty and twenty twenty two. This they're trying to
- 36:24Speaker 2: attribute to internet based education on retirement accounts, which again
- 36:29Speaker 2: I can buy the caveat there being there is from
- 36:34Speaker 2: what I have seen three to four times bad advice
- 36:38Speaker 2: on the internet for retirement savings and general financial advice,
- 36:42Speaker 2: then there is good. So it's interesting that you need
- 36:44Speaker 2: to parse through all that. But maybe gen Z's getting
- 36:46Speaker 2: pretty good at that too.
- 36:47Speaker 4: The roth ira is something that I wish I knew
- 36:50Speaker 4: about when I was younger. Maybe that is being disseminated
- 36:53Speaker 4: across other.
- 36:54Speaker 2: I'm guessing it is like it wasn't a piece of
- 36:57Speaker 2: our parents' financial literacy, right, It didn't exist when they
- 37:01Speaker 2: were in the workforce initially, and so we weren't taught
- 37:04Speaker 2: that as that age demographic, whereas gen Z probably is
- 37:08Speaker 2: being taught about it. It's, you know, probably the most
- 37:10Speaker 2: popular planning technique out there right now, quick.
- 37:13Speaker 4: One here on More people are willing to go into
- 37:17Speaker 4: pet debt even though it's going to cause them a
- 37:18Speaker 4: great deal of axide.
- 37:19Speaker 3: Tell me this is Bloomberg again telling you to kill
- 37:21Speaker 3: your pets. Who wrote this piece?
- 37:23Speaker 4: I believe this is market Watch here, but yes it
- 37:27Speaker 4: is MarketWatch. People are finding that, according to a recent
- 37:30Speaker 4: sort of sixty eight percent of couples without children are
- 37:33Speaker 4: willing to go into debt to take care of their
- 37:35Speaker 4: parents if they not their parents. That too, probably, but
- 37:39Speaker 4: their pets if a medical emergency arises, with the average
- 37:42Speaker 4: couple claiming they were willing to spend an average of
- 37:46Speaker 4: five thousand dollars for pet treatment. And I got to
- 37:50Speaker 4: tell you, Mike, we I get a lot of calls
- 37:52Speaker 4: for withdrawals from clients on pets and expenses that arise there.
- 37:56Speaker 4: It's a big sum in certain circumstances.
- 37:59Speaker 2: Is it is very very expensive. I don't know the
- 38:02Speaker 2: last time I walked out of the VET for less
- 38:03Speaker 2: than one hundred bucks. Quick break for the rest of
- 38:06Speaker 2: the day. Now, SMP NAZAC all in strongly positive territory.
- 38:10Speaker 2: We'll have a full recap for you tomorrow. Have a
- 38:12Speaker 2: great rest of your day, folks,