Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4018 Democrats PANIC as Talarico's Campaign Crumbles!

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Ep. 4018 Democrats PANIC as Talarico's Campaign Crumbles! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_03]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: Hey gang, it's me, Dr. Steve, and if you're seeing this, I'm on the road today.
• 0:25
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• 0:50
  [SPEAKER_03]: This movement does not pause when I travel.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_03]: It keeps going because you keep going.
• 0:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: God bless.
• 0:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: Again, it's me, Dr. Steve, on and what am I?
• 1:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: Turly walks.
• 1:01
  [SPEAKER_03]: Love having you here.
• 1:02
  [SPEAKER_03]: I hope you're having a glorious week.
• 1:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: You know, I thought I would address an issue that's been coming up quite a bit.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: Recently, I've been getting a lot of emails about this text messaging.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: There concerns about the Democrat candidate for the Texas Senate, James Tallerico, and whether or not he could actually pull this off.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: That's what the media saying, right?
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  [SPEAKER_03]: There's a rather formidable social media and legacy media campaign that's claiming.
• 1:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: that uh... talarico can do it he can he can finally flip Texas blue and they're pushing poles that show him beating can packed in uh... some of them by quite a lot but like four six or seven points and so the argument is that packed in is such a flawed
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  [SPEAKER_03]: candidate.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: He's so ethically compromised as admitted by even his fellow Republicans that it doesn't need look like this is the year that Texas can flip blue.
• 2:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: And what I wanted to do here today and our little curly walks together is I just want to put that whole
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  [SPEAKER_03]: notion to bed once and for all for you.
• 2:16
  [SPEAKER_03]: And just sort of smack all of us with a little bit of reality, right?
• 2:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: We always have to remember that truth itself has been politicized.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: It's been partisanized, particularly by Democrats, who are epistemological relatives.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: So what they do is they stretch and twist truth in all kinds of bizarre and crazy ways for the purpose of gaining power.
• 2:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: I should say truth claims, right?
• 2:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: Because truth by definition corresponds to reality.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And Democrats don't care about reality.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: They literally don't.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: They care about power and only power.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And they are going to twist the quote truth in all kinds of ways.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: They're going to push fake poles.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: They're going to push fake news and the legacy media to their blue and the face.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: So instead of that, let's all enjoy a nice dose of reality.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: All right, let's start with the polls themselves, the ones that are claiming that Tala Rico is way ahead.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: You got to understand two things working against polling, particularly with Texas, okay?
• 3:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: Two things, ideology and inaccuracy, ideology and inaccuracy.
• 3:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: So ideologically, you know, pulling outlets
• 3:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: but there have been a number of studies out there that have confirmed us, right?
• 3:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: Polls have overestimated Democrats support by an average of four points over the last decade.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: So for example, in 2020, 94% of polls overestimated Biden's performance, 94% that's not a coincidence.
• 4:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: Now in fairness, it's partly due to the fact
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  [SPEAKER_03]: that the number of respondents to polls has dropped from 20% of the population in 2000 to roughly 5% today.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And that 5% again studies have confirmed this.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: Our disproportionately made up of urban college educated institutionally trusting and Democrat leaning respondents.
• 4:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: And yet they refuse to fix their methodology and they refuse to fix their methodology precisely because they share in the same ideology as that 5% so that's the first problem you're dealing with it's an ideological problem with polls, but then there's a second problem and that's the increasing number of polling inaccuracies most of the polls.
• 5:06
  [SPEAKER_03]: that showed Paxton leading Coran in the primaries, were actually off by about 20%, 20 points.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: Paxton crushed Coran in by nearly 30 points, but most polls had him ahead by around 10.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And that points to the fact that Texas is a notoriously hard state to poll.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: I mean, if you think about the second largest state in the country,
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  [SPEAKER_03]: It's got 30 million people.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: It has 254 counties and so a real accurate polling, a proportionate representation of the Texas population there is very costly and very complex and
• 6:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: of a Democrat winning the statewide race, given the elections over the last say 30 years.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And the historical odds, if we do that, the historical odds against Tallah weeko, they're simply overwhelming.
• 6:19
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• 6:30
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• 6:33
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• 6:36
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• 6:40
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• 6:44
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• 6:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: That actually, you know, they did
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• 7:10
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• 7:11
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• 7:17
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• 7:30
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• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_03]: So once again, that number is triple eight, 59070233.
• 9:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: When all is said and done, the fundamentals simply are not there for him in any way shape or form.
• 9:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: So since 2012, across the country, all across the country,
• 9:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: 91% of Senate races have been won by whichever party carried that state in the most recent presidential election, 91%.
• 9:55
  [SPEAKER_03]: So whichever presidential candidate a state voted for in the next Senate election, they voted for the same party, 91% of the time.
• 10:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: 2024 in many ways was the cycle
• 10:14
  [SPEAKER_03]: Every state that went for Trump by double digits, now has two Republican senators, every state that voted for Trump by double digits, now has two Republican senators, Trump carry taxes by 14 points.
• 10:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: And taxes Republicans have won every single statewide race for 30 consecutive years.
• 10:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: Since 1996, Republicans have won 66 consecutive statewide victories.
• 10:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: Freaking Lloyd Benson was Texas's last Democrat elected senator back in 1988.
• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_03]: That's not a streak.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: That's a structural condition.
• 11:00
  [SPEAKER_03]: So the question isn't whether Telerico can win.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: He can come close enough to force Republicans to have to spend money.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: That's the most optimistic Democrat scenario, realistically.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: It's a beta-style near-mess, keeping it within single digits.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: But a win, natural win, a win,
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  [SPEAKER_03]: would require a level of ticket splitting that is essentially vanished from American politics in the state that hasn't elected the Democrat statewide since 1994.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: That's when Bush, Bush Jr., won the governor's ship.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And keep in mind that Texas has gotten even redder since Beto's near-miss in 2018.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: That's that.
• 11:56
  [SPEAKER_03]: So what about Paxton's supposed irredeemable flaws, right?
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  [SPEAKER_03]: He's been indicted on state felony securities fraud charges.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: He was never convicted, but he was indicted.
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: He's been impeached for alleged bribery and obstruction of justice.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: And he's been caught having a number of extra marital fairs.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: But again, all we have to do is look at the fundamentals.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: three times in a row and in the last two elections he won despite the scandals.
• 12:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: He was reelected in 2018 after his securities fraud indictment and he was reelected again in 2022 after being investigated by the FBI for bribery.
• 12:45
  [SPEAKER_03]: So I think the pattern here is rather clear here.
• 12:49
  [SPEAKER_03]: Texas Republican voters have consistently priced in Paxton scandals, and they voted for him anyway for right or for wrong.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: That's just the political reality.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: They treat the scandals more, well, either is politically motivated prosecutions or as irrelevant to his performance as AG, which they really like.
• 13:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's a keep in mind, it's the same thing with Trump.
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  [SPEAKER_03]: Remember, electing Trump was electing a felon, right?
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  [SPEAKER_03]: George Sloppeloppelous as Trump likes to call him.
• 13:24
  [SPEAKER_03]: So Tolerico's strategy of leaning into Paxton's scandals is futile.
• 13:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: All of Paxton's opponents have already tried it, but to no avail.
• 13:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: These scandals have already been litigated
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: and they lost each and every time, just like they did with Trump.
• 13:48
  [SPEAKER_03]: But I think perhaps, most telling, the most telling sign that Tullarico won't come anywhere near the Texas Senate is the fact that he just occupies such a radically different cultural space than most Texans.
• 14:05
  [SPEAKER_03]: You know, Texas is center-right majority is defined by
• 14:12
  [SPEAKER_03]: very deep, Christian faith, overwhelmingly conservative evangelical Protestant, traditional Catholic.
• 14:20
  [SPEAKER_03]: They have a very strong biblical anthropology that treats gender as binary.
• 14:28
  [SPEAKER_03]: There's only one man, or there's only a man and a woman, only two genders.
• 14:31
  [SPEAKER_03]: They believe life overwhelmingly.
• 14:33
  [SPEAKER_03]: They believe life begins at conception.
• 14:36
  [SPEAKER_03]: And religious identity is inseparable from civic life.
• 14:42
  [SPEAKER_03]: Texas is culturally patriotic.
• 14:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: They're institutionally skeptical federal power and they're shaped by strong frontier ethos, self-reliance, gun ownership, and family-centered community life, and barbecue.
• 14:58
  [SPEAKER_03]: Hispanic Texans, for sure, now a plurality of the state, they're largely culturally conservative on faith, family, border security,
• 15:07
  [SPEAKER_03]: And that's why they've been trending Republican, particularly in the Rio Grande Valley area, precise it for those reasons.
• 15:17
  [SPEAKER_03]: Talarico occupies nearly the opposite coordinate on every axis.
• 15:23
  [SPEAKER_03]: He declares God non-binary from the House floor.
• 15:27
  [SPEAKER_03]: He uses scripture to justify abortion.
• 15:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: He claims that there are six biological sexes.
• 15:34
  [SPEAKER_03]: He calls white men the greatest terrorist thread.
• 15:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: And he brags about teaching liberal propaganda to school children.
• 15:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: In Texas, you have to understand that's not a heterodox candidacy.
• 15:47
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's a cultural provocation, aimed squarely at the convictions of the overwhelming majority of voters he needs to persuade to vote for him.
• 15:59
  [SPEAKER_03]: So it doesn't matter what we're looking at,
• 16:04
  [SPEAKER_03]: and their unreliability, or the past election patterns, or pastens prior runs, or the radically alien cultural space that Tolerico and Habits, any one of those would be enough to sink his campaign.
• 16:21
  [SPEAKER_03]: But putting them all together, Tolerico's campaign ended before it ever began.
• 16:29
  [SPEAKER_03]: So what do you guys think?
• 16:30
  [SPEAKER_03]: I wanna hear what you have to say.
• 16:32
  [SPEAKER_03]: Let me know in the comment section below and as always make sure to smack that thumbs subscribe button for breaking news and analysis.
• 16:37
  [SPEAKER_03]: You're not gonna get anywhere else.
• 16:38
  [SPEAKER_03]: Love you guys.
• 16:39
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thanks for coming along with me on my walk.
• 16:40
  [SPEAKER_03]: It's a beautiful day.
• 16:41
  [SPEAKER_03]: I hope you have a wonderful one.
• 16:43
  [SPEAKER_03]: God bless.
• 16:44
  [SPEAKER_03]: Thanks so much for listening this episode of the Turley Talks Podcast.
• 16:48
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• 17:01
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