Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / The Show I've Wanted to Make for Years

Transcript

The Show I've Wanted to Make for Years · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable,
• 0:03
  the show about prediction markets and the
• 0:05
  news through the lens of prediction markets.
• 0:07
  Um,
• 0:08
  why are we in Washington DC to do this?
• 0:11
  Well,
• 0:11
  it is Earth Day,
• 0:12
  and so this week I'm flying all over the country just to punish the planet,
• 0:16
  because that's what I do.
• 0:18
  Punish the planet.
• 0:20
  Um,
• 0:20
  we actually,
• 0:21
  we're kind of set to start next week,
• 0:23
  uh,
• 0:24
  with the actual show,
• 0:25
  uh,
• 0:26
  and it'll be a show that you're getting Monday through Thursday,
• 0:29
  uh,
• 0:30
  you know,
• 0:30
  every week.
• 0:31
  Uh,
• 0:31
  and we're gonna start next week.
• 0:32
  They're in the middle of building the studios down in the Blaze in,
• 0:35
  uh,
• 0:35
  in Dallas.
• 0:36
  I'm up in DC right now,
• 0:37
  but we kind of had this DC opportunity
• 0:40
  pop up and,
• 0:41
  uh,
• 0:42
  you know,
• 0:42
  we wanted to kind of
• 0:44
  get up here and take advantage of it,
• 0:45
  honestly.
• 0:46
  We get to meet a bunch of people.
• 0:47
  We've been doing a bunch of meetings kind of behind the scenes
• 0:50
  as well.
• 0:51
  And uh since we had this opportunity,
• 0:53
  we thought maybe we just could bring you some content this week.
• 0:55
  Uh,
• 0:56
  the full show is gonna start,
• 0:57
  uh,
• 0:58
  next week,
• 0:58
  we think,
• 0:59
  you know,
• 0:59
  assuming there's not like a giant fire at the studios,
• 1:02
  uh,
• 1:02
  you never know
• 1:03
  when,
• 1:03
  uh,
• 1:04
  you know.
• 1:04
  You know,
• 1:04
  some protesters will break in and light it all on fire.
• 1:07
  But
• 1:07
  for the time being,
• 1:08
  we think it's going to be done,
• 1:09
  uh,
• 1:09
  next week,
• 1:10
  and we'll have content,
• 1:11
  you know,
• 1:11
  for you leading up to that,
• 1:12
  no matter what,
• 1:13
  right?
• 1:13
  Like some live streams,
• 1:14
  some,
• 1:15
  uh,
• 1:15
  ask,
• 1:15
  ask me anything,
• 1:16
  all sorts of stuff leading up to next week when the show
• 1:19
  actually starts from its home base in Dallas.
• 1:22
  What I wanted to do today,
• 1:24
  kind of as a,
• 1:25
  as a pseudo first episode,
• 1:27
  um,
• 1:28
  is
• 1:29
  To
• 1:30
  talk to you about
• 1:31
  kind of the way that I wanted to bridge
• 1:33
  the old stuff to the new stuff.
• 1:35
  Because,
• 1:36
  you know,
• 1:37
  you might,
• 1:37
  you know,
• 1:38
  we,
• 1:38
  we kind of start this show predictable
• 1:40
  with a pretty tight group.
• 1:41
  I know there are people who are really active in the prediction market,
• 1:45
  uh,
• 1:46
  world that are following the show or they're following closely what we're doing,
• 1:49
  and that's great.
• 1:50
  We're excited about that.
• 1:52
  But we're gonna start mostly with a,
• 1:53
  with a pretty tight group.
• 1:55
  And,
• 1:55
  you know,
• 1:55
  you're,
• 1:56
  if you're in that group,
• 1:57
  you've probably been around for a long time.
• 1:58
  You have been listening for a decade,
• 2:00
  2,
• 2:01
  maybe almost 3 decades.
• 2:03
  Uh,
• 2:03
  when it comes back to Studios America,
• 2:05
  Wonderful World of Stew before that,
• 2:07
  Patton Stew,
• 2:08
  uh,
• 2:08
  the Glenn Beck program,
• 2:09
  of course,
• 2:11
  all the things that we've done kind of together over a very long period of time.
• 2:14
  And we've been together through a million different news cycles,
• 2:18
  uh,
• 2:18
  a million different politicians.
• 2:21
  I will say when I look back
• 2:22
  at old footage,
• 2:23
  I've also realized you've gone on a million different weight fluctuations with me,
• 2:27
  and I,
• 2:27
  I appreciate you sticking through each and every one of those.
• 2:30
  Uh,
• 2:31
  my closet is,
• 2:32
  uh,
• 2:32
  not large enough to hold all the clothing,
• 2:34
  uh,
• 2:34
  but
• 2:35
  I'm glad you're still here.
• 2:37
  Uh,
• 2:37
  this is a bit of a different
• 2:39
  thing.
• 2:40
  I mean,
• 2:40
  change
• 2:41
  here is a little weird,
• 2:42
  right?
• 2:43
  Change can be odd and it can be unsettling,
• 2:45
  and it can be,
• 2:46
  uh,
• 2:47
  you know,
• 2:47
  when you,
• 2:47
  you're taken out of what you expect on a day to day basis,
• 2:50
  uh,
• 2:50
  I know that can be strange.
• 2:52
  And while this is a new show,
• 2:54
  it is about the news,
• 2:56
  uh,
• 2:56
  still through the lens of prediction markets.
• 2:59
  But
• 2:59
  it's about the news,
• 3:00
  we're gonna be analyzing the news.
• 3:02
  Um,
• 3:02
  you might not know anything about prediction markets,
• 3:05
  and honestly,
• 3:06
  that's totally fine.
• 3:07
  I still think you're going to get a lot
• 3:09
  out of the show on a day to day basis.
• 3:11
  Um,
• 3:12
  you know,
• 3:12
  you,
• 3:13
  the media
• 3:14
  is.
• 3:16
  Kind of now trying to figure out
• 3:18
  what prediction markets are and how they're gonna handle them.
• 3:21
  You know,
• 3:21
  it's interesting to watch,
• 3:22
  you'll see all these sort of like
• 3:25
  reports uh that are,
• 3:26
  you know,
• 3:27
  almost like grandmotherly.
• 3:29
  Like there's a scalding,
• 3:30
  uh,
• 3:30
  scolding you for all of the,
• 3:32
  uh,
• 3:33
  you know,
• 3:33
  all the,
• 3:34
  all the people that go on prediction markets and do things that are bad.
• 3:38
  Um,
• 3:39
  that's important to talk about,
• 3:40
  you want to make sure that these things are,
• 3:42
  uh,
• 3:43
  on the up and up as much as possible.
• 3:45
  But it's also like a really small part of the story here,
• 3:47
  and,
• 3:48
  you know,
• 3:49
  it is important to understand
• 3:52
  exactly why those things happen
• 3:54
  and,
• 3:54
  you know,
• 3:54
  it's funny to watch them at the same time they're,
• 3:57
  you know,
• 3:57
  scolding you or scolding the world about the,
• 4:00
  the casinoization of America.
• 4:02
  Half of these networks are all taking money from these prediction markets,
• 4:05
  uh,
• 4:06
  because,
• 4:07
  you know,
• 4:07
  they're,
• 4:07
  they're sponsoring stuff.
• 4:08
  There is real value there.
• 4:10
  And if you don't know anything
• 4:12
  about prediction markets,
• 4:14
  That's totally fine.
• 4:15
  Like it's,
• 4:16
  you're still gonna get something out
• 4:17
  of this program,
• 4:18
  I think.
• 4:18
  Um,
• 4:19
  now,
• 4:19
  you might hear it's all about gambling.
• 4:21
  I don't think that's true,
• 4:22
  we'll talk about that and I'll explain why I don't think that's true.
• 4:24
  I think,
• 4:25
  you know,
• 4:25
  just like anything else,
• 4:26
  you can approach all sorts of stuff,
• 4:27
  as you can approach stock market
• 4:29
  investing as meme stocks and penny stocks,
• 4:32
  and it might feel a lot like gambling.
• 4:34
  You can do the same thing in prediction markets,
• 4:35
  you can throw crazy bets all over the place if you want.
• 4:39
  That's not what we're gonna do here.
• 4:40
  Like that's not our interest.
• 4:42
  I don't want to do it that way.
• 4:43
  I think there's real utility to these markets,
• 4:45
  and I think not only will it help us
• 4:47
  maybe make some money together,
• 4:49
  but also,
• 4:50
  uh,
• 4:50
  you know,
• 4:51
  inform
• 4:52
  us as to what the world,
• 4:53
  what in the world is actually going on.
• 4:55
  You may never
• 4:57
  invest a dollar
• 4:58
  in a prediction market.
• 5:00
  That's totally fine.
• 5:01
  You may have no interest in investing a dollar in a prediction market.
• 5:04
  That's totally fine as well.
• 5:06
  There's going to be a ton of overlap between,
• 5:08
  you know,
• 5:08
  Studios America
• 5:10
  and,
• 5:10
  you know,
• 5:10
  what I did on the Glenn Beck program.
• 5:12
  I will still be calling AOC a moron,
• 5:14
  probably multiple times per
• 5:16
  show.
• 5:16
  I wish I could stop that.
• 5:17
  I feel bad about it at times because she's,
• 5:19
  you know,
• 5:20
  she's got the brain of a mouse.
• 5:21
  Uh,
• 5:21
  but,
• 5:22
  I will still continue to do that,
• 5:24
  you know,
• 5:24
  I'm still a conservative,
• 5:25
  I'm still a a a a nerd,
• 5:28
  and I will still,
• 5:29
  uh,
• 5:30
  you know,
• 5:30
  taunt Dallas Cowboys fans whenever possible.
• 5:32
  These are all things that are going to be central parts of this program.
• 5:36
  And I will be analyzing the news.
• 5:38
  Uh,
• 5:38
  I will be analyzing elections
• 5:40
  and
• 5:41
  the events that are important to you,
• 5:42
  that the events that affect you the most.
• 5:44
  Obviously,
• 5:45
  in this time period,
• 5:47
  elections are gonna be a big focus.
• 5:49
  And
• 5:50
  if you follow what I did on Studios America,
• 5:52
  on the Glenn Beck program,
• 5:53
  you know,
• 5:53
  that was kind of my beat,
• 5:55
  right?
• 5:55
  Like I,
• 5:55
  I mean,
• 5:56
  I,
• 5:56
  I built uh election models to try to predict what was going to happen.
• 6:00
  Uh,
• 6:00
  we,
• 6:01
  uh,
• 6:01
  we used all of this data,
• 6:03
  we analyzed the elections,
• 6:05
  uh,
• 6:05
  over the years,
• 6:06
  uh,
• 6:06
  for,
• 6:07
  you know,
• 6:07
  for show after show after show,
• 6:09
  election after election after election.
• 6:10
  It's one of the things
• 6:11
  that,
• 6:12
  you know,
• 6:12
  I,
• 6:12
  I just became known for because honestly,
• 6:15
  uh,
• 6:15
  I'm a loser and I like spreadsheets.
• 6:17
  Uh,
• 6:17
  so,
• 6:17
  you know,
• 6:18
  we wound up really kind of digging into that over a long period of time.
• 6:21
  Uh,
• 6:22
  so I'll be analyzing the news here,
• 6:23
  you'll still get that,
• 6:24
  you'll still get all the election analysis that you
• 6:27
  That you kind of expect uh from the stuff that I've been doing on previous shows.
• 6:31
  The difference here though is we're implementing
• 6:33
  a whole new data set
• 6:35
  in a much more serious way with prediction markets.
• 6:38
  And I've always used prediction markets as part of
• 6:40
  my analysis when it comes to breaking down elections.
• 6:43
  I think it's a really good way to think about them.
• 6:45
  It's a good way to understand.
• 6:47
  Um,
• 6:48
  you know,
• 6:48
  what's coming next,
• 6:49
  because they are able to synthesize
• 6:52
  tons and tons and tons of data points
• 6:54
  into one thing,
• 6:55
  so you can really get it,
• 6:57
  you can understand it,
• 6:58
  you can see,
• 6:58
  hey,
• 6:58
  wait a minute,
• 6:59
  I think that's too high,
• 6:59
  I think that's too low,
• 7:00
  but it gives you something to really work off of.
• 7:02
  A lot of times we have problems in the media,
• 7:05
  where hosts and shows and all of these things
• 7:09
  wind up
• 7:10
  throwing in a lot of what they want to happen,
• 7:13
  of what they're hoping will happen.
• 7:15
  As opposed to talking about the real world as it is.
• 7:18
  And
• 7:19
  there will be times the real world as it is sucks.
• 7:23
  We want you to know about that.
• 7:25
  The same thing on the other side,
• 7:26
  there's gonna be times where it's great.
• 7:28
  I don't want the media to beat you down on that.
• 7:29
  I want you to know
• 7:30
  as much as we can possibly know about what's coming around the corner,
• 7:33
  so you can prepare for it.
• 7:35
  Um,
• 7:36
  as we
• 7:37
  kind of implement
• 7:38
  these prediction markets into our analysis.
• 7:40
  Um,
• 7:41
  you should know a few things about why we're doing it.
• 7:45
  Now,
• 7:45
  prediction markets have been around for a long time,
• 7:47
  you know,
• 7:47
  despite the efforts of Elizabeth Warren and all of the Elizabeth Warren's,
• 7:52
  uh,
• 7:52
  that exist here in this wonderful city
• 7:55
  of Washington DC.
• 7:57
  Uh,
• 7:57
  prediction markets are gonna come under attack from those people.
• 8:00
  They're already out there doing it.
• 8:02
  They're already attacking them because,
• 8:03
  of course,
• 8:03
  they have interest into,
• 8:05
  like,
• 8:05
  their whole job is to fool you into not knowing what the truth is.
• 8:10
  So of course they don't like these things,
• 8:12
  right?
• 8:13
  That is
• 8:14
  quite obvious.
• 8:16
  When you hear people talk about how bad they are and how horrible they are,
• 8:21
  understand that for at least some of them,
• 8:22
  that's a big motivation.
• 8:24
  I do think that there are,
• 8:25
  there are groups of people who are concerned about
• 8:27
  some of the effects on them that are much more genuine,
• 8:30
  more earnest.
• 8:31
  Uh,
• 8:32
  that's different with Elizabeth Warren and AOC and those types.
• 8:35
  I mean John Oliver is another one.
• 8:38
  you know,
• 8:38
  you can't,
• 8:39
  you know what they're doing there,
• 8:40
  and we'll talk about that.
• 8:41
  I,
• 8:41
  I want to make sure that people understand.
• 8:43
  Uh,
• 8:44
  where
• 8:45
  those people,
• 8:45
  those criticisms are coming from,
• 8:47
  because they're not from a natural and normal and,
• 8:49
  um,
• 8:51
  from a place that's,
• 8:52
  that's that,
• 8:52
  that is,
• 8:53
  uh,
• 8:54
  I,
• 8:54
  I would say,
• 8:55
  has the,
• 8:55
  the best interests at heart.
• 8:58
  That's a problem.
• 8:59
  That's what,
• 9:00
  uh,
• 9:00
  a lot of the big nice buildings in this,
• 9:02
  uh,
• 9:02
  in the city are built around,
• 9:04
  and we of course are going to be pushing back against that.
• 9:07
  Um,
• 9:07
  the person who knows the most about
• 9:11
  how these things will develop in the future,
• 9:13
  uh,
• 9:14
  really in across the,
• 9:15
  the US and,
• 9:16
  uh,
• 9:17
  how global markets can play into this if they're going to come here as well,
• 9:20
  uh,
• 9:21
  and honestly,
• 9:22
  not to mention about how they will develop and,
• 9:24
  and,
• 9:24
  and,
• 9:25
  uh,
• 9:25
  what they can offer the economy.
• 9:27
  Is a guy named Michael Selig.
• 9:29
  Now he is the 16th chairman of the CFTC.
• 9:32
  Uh,
• 9:33
  he's appointed by Donald Trump.
• 9:34
  Uh,
• 9:34
  he was sworn in a few months ago,
• 9:35
  I think December.
• 9:37
  Uh,
• 9:37
  the CFTC is the,
• 9:39
  you know,
• 9:39
  one of these 9 zillion,
• 9:41
  uh,
• 9:42
  organizations,
• 9:43
  the regulatory organizations here in Washington.
• 9:45
  Uh,
• 9:45
  they oversee prediction markets and a lot more than that,
• 9:48
  right?
• 9:49
  They were created a long time ago to oversee agriculture,
• 9:52
  and it's grown into,
• 9:53
  uh,
• 9:54
  to this where the CFTC has.
• 9:56
  Uh,
• 9:57
  oversight of all of these prediction markets.
• 9:59
  He's the head of the CFTC,
• 10:01
  the big,
• 10:01
  the big cheese,
• 10:02
  the head honcho,
• 10:03
  and also
• 10:05
  not going to be on the top of his resume,
• 10:06
  but also
• 10:07
  our first guest on Predictable
• 10:09
  on tomorrow's program.
• 10:10
  We'll talk to the head of the CFTC,
• 10:13
  Michael Selig,
• 10:14
  who can talk to us about pretty much everything
• 10:16
  when it comes down
• 10:17
  to prediction markets,
• 10:18
  how they're looked at,
• 10:19
  if they have a future,
• 10:21
  do they bring any utility
• 10:22
  to our world?
• 10:23
  Do they help?
• 10:24
  Do they hurt?
• 10:25
  You know,
• 10:25
  what about all the criticisms that you keep hearing in the media?
• 10:27
  I'm gonna ask him all that stuff.
• 10:29
  on tomorrow's program,
• 10:30
  he's the first guest on Predictable,
• 10:32
  Michael Selig,
• 10:33
  chairman,
• 10:33
  chairman of the CFTC.
• 10:36
  Now,
• 10:36
  next week when the studio's finished,
• 10:38
  we'll start having full episodes.
• 10:39
  It'll feel more like a real show than,
• 10:41
  you know,
• 10:41
  what we're doing here today,
• 10:42
  just kind of talking,
• 10:43
  um,
• 10:44
  you know,
• 10:44
  and we will have,
• 10:46
  we're gonna have multiple goals.
• 10:48
  When you know,
• 10:49
  I had done the same type of thing for a long time.
• 10:53
  Which was look at the news every day
• 10:55
  and try to figure out,
• 10:56
  um,
• 10:57
  you know,
• 10:57
  what it means,
• 10:58
  uh,
• 10:58
  we would analyze it,
• 10:59
  we'd look at how to try to make the world a better place
• 11:02
  and try to prepare you for what was coming.
• 11:04
  And I think we did a,
• 11:05
  uh,
• 11:06
  look,
• 11:06
  I think we did a pretty good job doing that.
• 11:08
  I hope you enjoyed it,
• 11:09
  you're here for a reason,
• 11:10
  I,
• 11:10
  I assume,
• 11:11
  um,
• 11:12
  but,
• 11:12
  uh,
• 11:13
  you know.
• 11:14
  It was
• 11:16
  There's a lot of surrounding stuff really in,
• 11:18
  in,
• 11:19
  you know,
• 11:19
  conservative media,
• 11:20
  in,
• 11:20
  you know,
• 11:21
  mainstream media,
• 11:22
  uh,
• 11:22
  left-wing media,
• 11:23
  right?
• 11:23
  There's a lot going on.
• 11:24
  And I,
• 11:25
  I will say like we are on this show,
• 11:27
  predictable.
• 11:28
  We are going to look for ways
• 11:30
  for you and I to make some money.
• 11:33
  I,
• 11:33
  I'm being
• 11:34
  quite honest about that.
• 11:35
  I wanna make sure you understand that.
• 11:36
  Are we gonna look for ways to make you some money?
• 11:38
  Oh yeah.
• 11:39
  I mean,
• 11:40
  I think it's ridiculous that you're paying for your own vacations.
• 11:42
  That's crazy.
• 11:42
  That's not the way this world is.
• 11:43
  Supposed to work.
• 11:44
  Let's figure that out together.
• 11:46
  I think we can do that,
• 11:46
  or at least make a good dentity to it.
• 11:48
  Maybe,
• 11:49
  you know,
• 11:50
  it'll just be a few dinners out.
• 11:51
  Maybe,
• 11:52
  who knows what it could be.
• 11:53
  I will say there are opportunities out there.
• 11:55
  I'm looking for them all the time.
• 11:56
  We have a bunch of people behind the scenes also looking for them all the time.
• 11:59
  This company was built with that in mind
• 12:01
  to make sure that we could actually help people,
• 12:04
  uh,
• 12:04
  make a little bit of a profit.
• 12:07
  Uh,
• 12:07
  turn the knowledge that you have about the news,
• 12:10
  turn the knowledge that you have about the world around you.
• 12:13
  Um,
• 12:13
  you know,
• 12:13
  I always think of an example of like,
• 12:15
  you know,
• 12:15
  you,
• 12:16
  you watch the,
• 12:17
  you know,
• 12:17
  one of the typical cable news channels,
• 12:20
  and what you might see is,
• 12:21
  oh gosh,
• 12:22
  which way is this guy gonna vote?
• 12:23
  He's gonna vote this way,
• 12:24
  he's gonna go vote vote this way.
• 12:25
  You may very well know that guy,
• 12:27
  right?
• 12:27
  You know that,
• 12:28
  and I'm not saying you go out to dinner with him.
• 12:29
  I'm saying you've watched him over and over and over again.
• 12:32
  And you've seen him over and over and over again,
• 12:35
  let you down.
• 12:36
  You've seen him over and over and over again,
• 12:38
  fold at the last second,
• 12:39
  some special interest group comes in and makes them change their vote.
• 12:43
  If you know that's coming,
• 12:44
  you should be paid for the pain,
• 12:46
  right?
• 12:47
  And I do,
• 12:48
  this is a central part of,
• 12:50
  of why we're doing this show
• 12:52
  is we really do think there those examples are out there where we can actually profit
• 12:56
  off of these events
• 12:57
  and,
• 12:57
  and give you access to for a way to make to a way to make money that is,
• 13:02
  you know,
• 13:02
  a lot more difficult
• 13:03
  than,
• 13:04
  um,
• 13:04
  uh,
• 13:05
  like a lot of times
• 13:06
  what you have access to now is a lot more
• 13:08
  difficult than what I think prediction markets can provide.
• 13:11
  If you are an idiot,
• 13:12
  you will lose a lot of money.
• 13:14
  You can lose a lot of money on prediction markets.
• 13:16
  Um,
• 13:16
  if you,
• 13:17
  uh,
• 13:17
  make massive bets on things you're not,
• 13:19
  uh,
• 13:20
  if,
• 13:20
  you know,
• 13:20
  and I use that word intentionally,
• 13:22
  if you're making bets,
• 13:23
  then you're gambling.
• 13:25
  If you're trying to invest your money,
• 13:26
  you can actually grow it,
• 13:27
  and I think we could do that together.
• 13:29
  Um,
• 13:29
  you know,
• 13:29
  I've
• 13:31
  been able to do this over a long
• 13:33
  period of time successfully,
• 13:34
  and I think we can continue that together,
• 13:36
  um,
• 13:37
  but,
• 13:38
  More importantly than that,
• 13:39
  more importantly than,
• 13:40
  uh,
• 13:41
  you know,
• 13:41
  paying for your dinners or vacations.
• 13:43
  We're gonna soon be launching into the meat of a very important election season.
• 13:48
  And,
• 13:48
  you know,
• 13:48
  the news and commentary space,
• 13:50
  the way it is right now,
• 13:51
  you know,
• 13:51
  while there's still certainly a lot of people I really like in it,
• 13:54
  like there's
• 13:55
  a lot of commentators I really like and are super reliable,
• 13:58
  um,
• 14:00
  it's also kind of become unhinged a little bit at times.
• 14:03
  I don't know if you've noticed this.
• 14:05
  You watched,
• 14:06
  uh,
• 14:06
  the mainstream media,
• 14:07
  do you have any
• 14:10
  thought that they're trying to give you the truth?
• 14:12
  Are they trying to give you the truth or are they trying to push you
• 14:15
  toward an agenda?
• 14:16
  Now,
• 14:16
  you can go back,
• 14:17
  I mean,
• 14:17
  I listened to,
• 14:18
  you know,
• 14:18
  I started listening to Rush Limbaugh back in,
• 14:20
  you know,
• 14:20
  the 90s,
• 14:21
  right?
• 14:21
  And I remember
• 14:23
  learning a lot of things from,
• 14:24
  from Rush and he was bringing up points like this back in the day,
• 14:26
  like this is not a new problem,
• 14:28
  the media's always been against you,
• 14:30
  um in that way.
• 14:31
  You add on to that,
• 14:32
  right now we have campaigns that are uh constantly trying to mislead you.
• 14:38
  Um,
• 14:39
  you have
• 14:40
  social media that is out there.
• 14:42
  You know,
• 14:42
  it's much more systematic now.
• 14:44
  I mean,
• 14:44
  if you go back to the 90s when Rush was talking about it,
• 14:46
  he was,
• 14:47
  I mean I remember Rush reading like New York Times
• 14:49
  op-eds like beginning to end and picking them apart.
• 14:52
  And
• 14:53
  you know,
• 14:53
  you think about those now,
• 14:54
  I feel like a lot of those just kind of come and go.
• 14:56
  People don't even notice them.
• 14:57
  Back then,
• 14:57
  they were really important.
• 14:58
  There was this big statement made and it was important
• 15:00
  that Rush was there to push back against it.
• 15:02
  Now there's so much crap and trash everywhere,
• 15:04
  it's impossible
• 15:05
  to unwind it.
• 15:06
  I
• 15:07
  want to help unwind it.
• 15:09
  Each side is trying to basically out meme the other,
• 15:12
  and there's honestly very little,
• 15:14
  little,
• 15:15
  little reliable information because people are incentivized to
• 15:19
  get you to do something.
• 15:21
  If there's a good result for you,
• 15:23
  and this goes to even our side sometimes,
• 15:25
  right?
• 15:25
  Like,
• 15:26
  a lot of this is motivated by good things because they want,
• 15:29
  you know,
• 15:29
  they want you to,
• 15:31
  uh,
• 15:31
  they,
• 15:31
  they want a certain candidate to win.
• 15:33
  They know it's really important to the country.
• 15:35
  And they don't want you to be sort of demoralized,
• 15:38
  right?
• 15:38
  Oh gosh,
• 15:39
  it looks like this person's going
• 15:40
  to win or lose.
• 15:41
  I am of the opinion that
• 15:43
  I want to trust you
• 15:45
  with the information.
• 15:46
  I want you to get the correct information and I want to trust you with it.
• 15:49
  And I want you to maybe invest some of your money or not,
• 15:52
  but I want you to know what's coming.
• 15:54
  And,
• 15:55
  you know,
• 15:55
  a lot of people ask me like,
• 15:57
  well,
• 15:57
  why,
• 15:57
  you know,
• 15:57
  you talk about prediction markets and why they're accurate,
• 16:00
  but like what does that mean?
• 16:01
  Why,
• 16:01
  why do prediction markets work?
• 16:04
  It's funny,
• 16:05
  as conservatives,
• 16:06
  we know this inherently.
• 16:07
  And this is one of the things that drew me
• 16:09
  to this show,
• 16:10
  to do this for the first time,
• 16:12
  to kind of make a big change,
• 16:14
  right,
• 16:14
  in my life.
• 16:15
  And if you're,
• 16:16
  you know,
• 16:16
  a longtime
• 16:17
  viewer or listener,
• 16:18
  kind of in your life too,
• 16:19
  if that was part of your daily diet
• 16:21
  of shows like,
• 16:22
  hey,
• 16:22
  you know,
• 16:22
  this is a big difference,
• 16:24
  right?
• 16:24
  Why did I want to make this change?
• 16:26
  Why do prediction markets work?
• 16:27
  Well,
• 16:28
  we know this
• 16:29
  as conservatives.
• 16:32
  Markets make things better.
• 16:34
  Because
• 16:35
  they honestly
• 16:36
  force you
• 16:37
  into a place of truth.
• 16:39
  If the government tried to,
• 16:40
  you know,
• 16:41
  uh,
• 16:42
  we,
• 16:42
  we,
• 16:42
  we,
• 16:42
  we know this is wrong.
• 16:43
  If the government tries to basically like set the price of bananas,
• 16:47
  right?
• 16:48
  If the government comes in and does that,
• 16:49
  we know that
• 16:50
  there will be,
• 16:51
  you know,
• 16:51
  activists and special interests and they'll all rush,
• 16:53
  rush in and they'll,
• 16:54
  they'll tell you why it actually has to be $10.
• 16:57
  And then it'll be $20 and by the,
• 16:59
  by the end of it,
• 16:59
  a loaf of banana bread is more than a mortgage.
• 17:01
  Like this is what happens
• 17:03
  with the government.
• 17:04
  We know this,
• 17:04
  right?
• 17:05
  We've seen this.
• 17:05
  Think about cars.
• 17:07
  Go back to
• 17:08
  the Soviet Union and the cars that they produced,
• 17:10
  right?
• 17:11
  Total crap boxes,
• 17:12
  right?
• 17:12
  And these cars,
• 17:13
  they looked terrible,
• 17:14
  they didn't run,
• 17:15
  there was no parts for them when you needed them.
• 17:17
  Because
• 17:18
  this was a top-down government system.
• 17:20
  We were able to dismantle that system,
• 17:22
  you know,
• 17:22
  certainly
• 17:23
  not the only part of this,
• 17:24
  but the reason why
• 17:25
  capitalism
• 17:26
  has largely won around the world
• 17:29
  is because people understand
• 17:31
  that markets wind up doing a better job at these things
• 17:35
  than individuals can,
• 17:37
  uh,
• 17:37
  than powerful people at central governments can.
• 17:40
  I mean,
• 17:40
  even China has been forced to embrace
• 17:44
  large swaths of capitalism.
• 17:46
  To try to make their system
• 17:48
  work better
• 17:49
  so it wouldn't fail every 10 or 15 years after every 5 to 10 year plan.
• 17:54
  Um
• 17:55
  If you think about news and and information.
• 18:00
  We almost have a system
• 18:02
  where
• 18:03
  it's more top down.
• 18:05
  What we see is the CBS and the NBC and the ABC and the New York Times
• 18:10
  all getting together and having their spin on what is supposed to happen.
• 18:15
  And,
• 18:15
  you know,
• 18:15
  even commentators on both sides and campaigns in the middle,
• 18:19
  all trying to tell you what they want to happen,
• 18:21
  and their,
• 18:22
  their incentive,
• 18:24
  incentives almost always work.
• 18:26
  Their incentive though is to push you in one direction or the other.
• 18:30
  Their incentives are not aligned with getting you the best information possible.
• 18:35
  And
• 18:36
  that is,
• 18:37
  you know,
• 18:38
  a lot of times,
• 18:39
  you know,
• 18:39
  commentary and,
• 18:40
  and information,
• 18:42
  there are different incentives.
• 18:43
  There are,
• 18:43
  it's,
• 18:43
  you know,
• 18:44
  it can be clickbaitity,
• 18:45
  it can be,
• 18:45
  uh,
• 18:46
  you know,
• 18:46
  uh,
• 18:48
  engagement farming,
• 18:49
  it can be all of this.
• 18:50
  It can be the equivalent of government priced bananas.
• 18:53
  It can be overvalued,
• 18:54
  it can be propped up,
• 18:55
  it can be ultimately not worth what you're paying.
• 18:58
  In this case,
• 18:59
  we all understand when there's a free market,
• 19:02
  you know,
• 19:03
  whether it comes to cars or bananas,
• 19:05
  you're going to be able to get a better price and eventually a better product.
• 19:10
  And it's funny that we just have kind of taken that as conservatives.
• 19:14
  We've decided,
• 19:15
  hey,
• 19:15
  well,
• 19:15
  this is the way it is.
• 19:17
  Let's try to get some other sources of information and,
• 19:19
  and,
• 19:19
  you know,
• 19:20
  certainly there are market forces on the side of that,
• 19:22
  right,
• 19:22
  where they,
• 19:22
  you know,
• 19:23
  some will succeed,
• 19:24
  some will fail because of,
• 19:25
  of market forces.
• 19:26
  But when it comes to actually delivering the truth,
• 19:29
  that part of it
• 19:30
  is something true or not,
• 19:32
  the incentives aren't always aligned
• 19:34
  with what's best for you.
• 19:36
  So how do we get better information?
• 19:39
  At predictable,
• 19:40
  we're going to implement prediction markets into that information feed,
• 19:43
  because
• 19:44
  when we do,
• 19:44
  we wind up with superior information.
• 19:47
  We know these things long before
• 19:50
  others do.
• 19:51
  That's really important
• 19:53
  because it gets you,
• 19:54
  it puts you in a place where you're able to prepare for what's coming.
• 19:57
  We're still gonna analyze news,
• 19:58
  we're still gonna break stuff down
• 20:00
  as always.
• 20:01
  But I think using these markets as a better way to get you information and analysis
• 20:05
  is really gonna help that process.
• 20:07
  We're not going away from news analysis,
• 20:09
  we're trying to do it in a better way.
• 20:11
  And it's amazing
• 20:13
  how many people I talk to on a day to day basis
• 20:15
  that are surprised about what's happening in the world.
• 20:19
  What's,
• 20:20
  wow,
• 20:20
  this thing happened and it's a shock,
• 20:22
  you know,
• 20:22
  um,
• 20:23
  uh,
• 20:23
  this election we had the other night in Virginia.
• 20:26
  I mean,
• 20:27
  can you believe they're doing that?
• 20:28
  Hm,
• 20:28
  yeah,
• 20:29
  kind of,
• 20:30
  frankly,
• 20:30
  yes,
• 20:31
  kind of,
• 20:31
  I can.
• 20:32
  Um,
• 20:32
  you know,
• 20:32
  these are people that I talk to often
• 20:35
  who are,
• 20:35
  you know,
• 20:35
  good people,
• 20:36
  they're productive people,
• 20:37
  and that's kind of the important part.
• 20:38
  Like,
• 20:39
  they're people,
• 20:39
  unlike me that are actually
• 20:41
  adding something to the economy,
• 20:43
  building things,
• 20:44
  helping people,
• 20:45
  doing real jobs,
• 20:47
  unlike talking into a stupid camera over and over again.
• 20:49
  Uh,
• 20:50
  and this is on the left and the right,
• 20:51
  by the way,
• 20:52
  you know,
• 20:53
  millions and millions and millions and millions of people were shocked.
• 20:57
  By Donald Trump winning in 2024.
• 20:59
  Why?
• 21:00
  Why did that happen?
• 21:01
  Why were they shocked?
• 21:03
  You might not have been shocked.
• 21:04
  I wasn't shocked.
• 21:05
  We weren't shocked at all here.
• 21:07
  We made money on that election
• 21:09
  because
• 21:10
  we thought there was a really good chance Donald Trump was going to win.
• 21:12
  Thought it would be close,
• 21:13
  but we thought Donald Trump would win.
• 21:15
  We weren't shocked by that outcome,
• 21:17
  and we made money.
• 21:18
  Millions and millions of people were also shocked by Joe Biden winning in 2020.
• 21:21
  Now I,
• 21:22
  I,
• 21:22
  I was shocked that we could be that stupid.
• 21:24
  I mean that was
• 21:25
  shocking and kind of
• 21:26
  shook me to my core.
• 21:29
  But regardless of,
• 21:29
  of,
• 21:30
  of what you think about,
• 21:31
  you know,
• 21:31
  how that election went down.
• 21:33
  We weren't shocked by the result,
• 21:35
  honestly.
• 21:36
  We,
• 21:36
  we,
• 21:36
  you know,
• 21:37
  I,
• 21:37
  I talked about this on the Glenn Beck program at the time,
• 21:40
  what I thought was going to happen.
• 21:42
  In fact,
• 21:42
  we wound up,
• 21:43
  uh,
• 21:43
  calling the electoral count,
• 21:44
  exactly,
• 21:45
  uh,
• 21:45
  and,
• 21:46
  you know,
• 21:46
  because of that,
• 21:47
  we were able to do very,
• 21:48
  very well in that election.
• 21:49
  We made money off of that,
• 21:51
  at least until Biden destroyed the economy and then we lost it again.
• 21:55
  But
• 21:56
  that's secondary.
• 21:57
  Uh,
• 21:57
  at least we had that money to lose.
• 22:00
  Um.
• 22:00
  I wasn't happy about that victory for,
• 22:03
  for Joe Biden,
• 22:04
  whatever
• 22:05
  type of victory you wanna call it,
• 22:06
  but I will say it was something that we did see coming
• 22:11
  pretty clearly.
• 22:12
  Um,
• 22:13
  and I will say this as well,
• 22:14
  importantly,
• 22:15
  I think,
• 22:16
  I was among those who was
• 22:18
  pretty shocked by Trump's win in 2016,
• 22:20
  like I didn't necessarily see that one coming.
• 22:23
  But the,
• 22:23
  the important part of that story is
• 22:26
  that we also made money in 2016 on these elections.
• 22:30
  You don't have to know everything about the future
• 22:33
  to be able to profit in prediction markets
• 22:36
  and to know more about the news and what's coming down the line.
• 22:40
  We were focused on finding value.
• 22:42
  I was looking at that and saying,
• 22:43
  wait a minute,
• 22:45
  I don't think Donald Trump's gonna win this election,
• 22:47
  but
• 22:48
  he's got a way better chance than
• 22:50
  15%,
• 22:51
  which is what the media was telling you,
• 22:53
  uh,
• 22:53
  or even lower.
• 22:54
  I mean,
• 22:54
  I was buying shares on,
• 22:56
  you know,
• 22:56
  the way the prediction markets work is basically you think of it as a,
• 22:59
  um,
• 23:00
  You know,
• 23:00
  if you have,
• 23:00
  uh,
• 23:01
  a,
• 23:01
  a dollar,
• 23:02
  right,
• 23:02
  um,
• 23:02
  if,
• 23:03
  and you think of it as like a percentage,
• 23:04
  right,
• 23:04
  if there's a 10% chance of something happened,
• 23:06
  you can buy a share of this at
• 23:08
  10 cents,
• 23:09
  and if you're right,
• 23:10
  it will go to $1.
• 23:11
  So for every 10 cents you invest,
• 23:13
  you get a $1 return.
• 23:15
  Uh,
• 23:15
  uh,
• 23:15
  and
• 23:16
  I can remember on the night of the election in 2016,
• 23:19
  buying shares of Donald Trump to become president of the United States on that night
• 23:23
  at 9%.
• 23:25
  Which was able to give me,
• 23:26
  you know,
• 23:26
  about 11 times plus
• 23:28
  my money in that market.
• 23:29
  Now,
• 23:30
  we realized that he had a much better chance to win.
• 23:32
  We recognized that there was a chance too.
• 23:34
  I thought it was over 50% that he was not going to win,
• 23:37
  but when you do this methodically,
• 23:39
  when you look at these markets over a long period of time,
• 23:42
  you can find edges,
• 23:43
  and
• 23:44
  if you continually search for value
• 23:47
  over a long period of time.
• 23:49
  You wind up coming out way ahead,
• 23:51
  and that's what we've been able to do for a long
• 23:53
  period of time.
• 23:54
  This isn't something I'm jumping into because
• 23:56
  all of a sudden there are commercials on TV for calcium polymarket.
• 24:00
  You know,
• 24:00
  I'm glad that they're,
• 24:01
  they're launching these things.
• 24:02
  I'm glad,
• 24:03
  you know,
• 24:03
  them,
• 24:03
  predict it,
• 24:04
  all these guys are coming into this field.
• 24:05
  There's gonna be,
• 24:06
  there's rumors of 10 to 20 more prediction markets coming in,
• 24:09
  and all of them will give us different data points
• 24:12
  and opportunities
• 24:13
  to try to do better.
• 24:14
  But this is not a new thing to me.
• 24:16
  I've been doing this for a very long time.
• 24:18
  I,
• 24:18
  uh,
• 24:19
  you know,
• 24:19
  I think the first election I was really active in prediction markets here was 2014.
• 24:25
  So going back quite a long way,
• 24:26
  it might have been 2012.
• 24:28
  I have to go back and look at that,
• 24:29
  honestly,
• 24:29
  it might have been 2012,
• 24:30
  but I think it was 2014.
• 24:31
  Uh,
• 24:32
  I,
• 24:32
  we,
• 24:33
  uh,
• 24:33
  met a couple of the guys I worked with at the Blaze,
• 24:35
  met with a guy
• 24:36
  who was in one of the very first
• 24:38
  prediction markets.
• 24:40
  Uh,
• 24:40
  when we talked about how these things worked and why they were interesting,
• 24:43
  why they're important,
• 24:44
  back in 2005.
• 24:46
  So that is over 20 years ago now,
• 24:48
  which makes me feel incredibly old,
• 24:49
  now that I
• 24:51
  say that out loud.
• 24:52
  Uh,
• 24:52
  but the point is,
• 24:53
  uh,
• 24:53
  you know,
• 24:54
  This is something that we've been thinking about for a long time.
• 24:57
  I've been implementing slowly into the way that we look at the world,
• 25:00
  and we're going to go even farther now.
• 25:02
  Uh,
• 25:02
  we have opportunities with much,
• 25:03
  much more data,
• 25:04
  with more people in these markets than ever before,
• 25:07
  with more smart people in these markets than ever before.
• 25:09
  We have an opportunity to look at these,
• 25:11
  get incredible
• 25:13
  information as to what is coming
• 25:14
  next,
• 25:15
  and also
• 25:16
  get some incredible opportunities
• 25:18
  as well.
• 25:18
  The point is,
• 25:19
  you shouldn't be shocked
• 25:21
  by what's coming.
• 25:22
  You might have been shocked by a previous election.
• 25:24
  You might have been shocked by what something that one of these politicians did,
• 25:26
  but you shouldn't be shocked at what the outcome is.
• 25:29
  You know,
• 25:29
  no one knows the future.
• 25:31
  But we can get a lot closer than the disaster of a media that we have right now.
• 25:37
  The name of the show,
• 25:38
  you'll be seeing it on this channel,
• 25:40
  is predictable,
• 25:41
  and that is
• 25:43
  because that's what the world should be.
• 25:45
  It should be a little bit more predictable.
• 25:48
  We're gonna be
• 25:49
  doing our best to get you closer to a
• 25:51
  predictable world in what feels like completely unpredictable times.
• 25:55
  So,
• 25:56
  I ask you to tell somebody about this if you think they might be interested in,
• 25:59
  you know,
• 26:00
  serious election content and understanding the world.
• 26:03
  And look,
• 26:04
  we're gonna have fun too.
• 26:05
  We'll have election content,
• 26:06
  we will have,
• 26:07
  uh,
• 26:07
  stuff on sports,
• 26:08
  we'll have stuff on culture.
• 26:10
  Uh,
• 26:10
  there's all sorts of different markets,
• 26:12
  really,
• 26:12
  you can,
• 26:13
  uh,
• 26:14
  almost anything
• 26:15
  you can find a market on to try to understand what's going on in that world.
• 26:19
  Sometimes it'll just be opportunities to say,
• 26:21
  hey,
• 26:21
  wait a minute,
• 26:21
  this,
• 26:22
  this is what I kind of like,
• 26:23
  and maybe we should look into this one a little bit further.
• 26:25
  Sometimes it will be really important things that
• 26:28
  are affecting your day to day life.
• 26:30
  So,
• 26:31
  if you have anyone that you know,
• 26:32
  please share this with them.
• 26:33
  Let them know we're gonna be
• 26:35
  right here on YouTube.com
• 26:37
  at Predictable
• 26:38
  show.
• 26:39
  Uh,
• 26:39
  we will be all over the place.
• 26:40
  You'll be on your podcast feed and,
• 26:42
  and everything as well.
• 26:44
  And tomorrow,
• 26:44
  we will be talking to
• 26:46
  Chairman Michael Selig on tomorrow's program of the CFTC.
• 26:50
  Kind of the way that they,
• 26:51
  they oversee,
• 26:52
  uh,
• 26:53
  this,
• 26:53
  uh,
• 26:54
  this,
• 26:55
  you know,
• 26:55
  this whole new world.
• 26:57
  How are they gonna see,
• 26:58
  how are they gonna deal with the threats?
• 26:59
  How are they gonna deal
• 27:00
  uh with the,
• 27:01
  the benefits of prediction markets.
• 27:03
  We'll get into all of that with him
• 27:04
  tomorrow on the show for our first guest,
• 27:06
  Michael Selig,
• 27:07
  chairman of the CFTTC.
• 27:09
  Another,
• 27:10
  uh,
• 27:11
  thing just to throw your way.
• 27:13
  If,
• 27:13
  if you're maybe already kind of interested in this stuff,
• 27:16
  if you think
• 27:17
  this is something
• 27:18
  that you're gonna wanna follow for really good electric uh election breakdowns.
• 27:23
  And also,
• 27:25
  um,
• 27:25
  you know,
• 27:26
  uh,
• 27:26
  opportunities in this world.
• 27:28
  We have a sub stack that is at predictableshow.com.
• 27:32
  It's,
• 27:32
  you know,
• 27:32
  predictable.substack.com,
• 27:34
  but if you go to predictableshow.com,
• 27:35
  it'll send you right there.
• 27:37
  There we'll give you,
• 27:38
  uh,
• 27:38
  you know,
• 27:39
  you can,
• 27:39
  you'll be able to check out the show there,
• 27:41
  you'll be able to check out a bunch of different live streams and additional
• 27:44
  broadcasts that we do.
• 27:46
  And on top of that,
• 27:48
  there's a lot,
• 27:48
  gonna be a lot of written stuff like articles,
• 27:50
  uh,
• 27:51
  certain market breakdowns.
• 27:52
  Um,
• 27:53
  we'll try to keep it entertaining too.
• 27:55
  I mean,
• 27:55
  I wanted to kind of break down the,
• 27:57
  the more high-minded,
• 27:58
  uh,
• 27:58
  things we're trying to do here,
• 27:59
  but we're also gonna screw around a lot because honestly,
• 28:01
  I can't deal with the world without doing that.
• 28:03
  So,
• 28:04
  we will,
• 28:04
  uh,
• 28:05
  we'll give you,
• 28:06
  uh,
• 28:06
  articles,
• 28:07
  breakdowns,
• 28:08
  uh,
• 28:08
  with the edge,
• 28:09
  I think that you're used to,
• 28:10
  uh,
• 28:10
  from,
• 28:11
  um,
• 28:11
  you know,
• 28:12
  content that I've been involved in.
• 28:14
  Uh,
• 28:14
  and we will kind of bring that to you,
• 28:17
  you know,
• 28:17
  on a day to day basis.
• 28:18
  So that's a really important place to go.
• 28:20
  Go there,
• 28:20
  predictableshow.com,
• 28:21
  just use your email,
• 28:22
  it's,
• 28:22
  it's free to sign up,
• 28:24
  and you'll get all this,
• 28:25
  uh,
• 28:25
  breakdown.
• 28:25
  I wanna make sure you get this information,
• 28:27
  uh,
• 28:28
  in,
• 28:28
  in,
• 28:28
  in all the different ways that we are,
• 28:30
  uh,
• 28:30
  trying to supply it to you.
• 28:32
  So it's kind of a brave new world out there.
• 28:34
  I hope you'll join us on the journey through it.
• 28:37
  It is predictableShow.com,
• 28:38
  YouTube.com/atpredictableshow.
• 28:41
  Uh,
• 28:42
  of course,
• 28:42
  all the social media out there
• 28:44
  as well,
• 28:44
  where we can kind of direct you,
• 28:46
  uh,
• 28:46
  to,
• 28:47
  uh,
• 28:47
  be able to get the access to the information
• 28:49
  that I think you honestly need and deserve.
• 28:52
  So,
• 28:52
  join us,
• 28:53
  predictableShow.com,
• 28:55
  and we will see you with Chairman of the CFTC Michael Selig
• 29:00
  tomorrow.