Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 179 - 12/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum
Transcript
- 0:19Hello, and welcome to episode 179 of the All Systems Go Sports
- 0:25Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
- 0:28I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
- 0:35Happy Tuesday. The early portion of the week
- 0:38rolls on here guys. We got a lot to get to on
- 0:41today's podcast. It is going to be a big hoops
- 0:44day for today, including both NBA and college.
- 0:47I got 3 bets for you and college basketball couple dogs.
- 0:52I hope they're going to bark for us with some really good edges
- 0:54here in terms of Ken Palm sound the alarm, whoo, as well as some
- 0:58good rhythm edges and then a late night obscure low bets,
- 1:02higher dollars, sharp line move and then going to go to the NBA
- 1:05couple plays in the NBA. I'm looking at a total.
- 1:07There's only two games here, but a total as well as a player
- 1:10prop. I'm going to see if we can maybe
- 1:12layer in player props here a little bit more.
- 1:14I'm thinking, hey, we got these great rhythm edges, why don't I
- 1:17bet more NBA player props? If I'm not liking a side or a
- 1:20total and don't see an edge either way, maybe there's a
- 1:23player who we can bet on to go over or under.
- 1:25So do have one player that you'll probably never guess who
- 1:28it is, but I'm going to look toward him going over his
- 1:31rebound and assist prop for tonight.
- 1:33So 5 pack overall, 3 in college, 2 in the NBA.
- 1:36You guys know the drill. Can we find a way to get three
- 1:39or more? And he got a winning night.
- 1:41Now, looking back to our last night, guys, I thought we were
- 1:43going to do it. I thought we were going to post
- 1:45the winning night because we need it after a rough weekend
- 1:48and what happened? Nope, more more the same, more
- 1:50the bad beats 2 and 3 -. 1.3 units.
- 1:53Last night did start the night off right with South Carolina
- 1:56State getting it done on the money line which was great.
- 1:59Also had CD Lamb go over his receiving prop number that was
- 2:0266 1/2. Rhythm predicted closer to 80.
- 2:06He finished with 96. So I'm thinking OK, we we only
- 2:09need one out of the next three bets to win and boom, we'll have
- 2:12a winning night. But what happened?
- 2:14Norfolk State gets rolled in the second-half.
- 2:16That wasn't fun. But the coup de grace, the one
- 2:18that really, really hurt, the one that really destroyed the
- 2:21night was the Dallas Cowboys in that idiot backup player who I
- 2:26actually kind of feel bad for. But blocked kick.
- 2:29All they got to do is not touch the ball.
- 2:31Dallas gets the ball back in a tied game.
- 2:34Even if they kick a field goal and we get Cincinnati score a
- 2:37touchdown, you still cover with the with the 5 1/2 or 4 1/2.
- 2:42What happens? Some idiot secondary guy touches
- 2:45the ball, turns it over. Just absolutely brutal.
- 2:48These bad beats. In a way, it's like each night,
- 2:51in what new way can you inflict pain on me?
- 2:54In the most ridiculous, disgusting ways.
- 2:56But that backup guy who just got elevated to the active roster,
- 3:00touching the ball and screwing up a huge block kick, for us,
- 3:03that was about as bad as it gets.
- 3:05And if you saw Michael Parsons, he lost his mind.
- 3:07I kind of lost mine too. But the way it's been recently,
- 3:09I'm almost waiting for that ridiculous, terrible thing to
- 3:12happen. When you're when you're
- 3:13struggling, feels like these breaks never go your way.
- 3:16When you're hot, if you're hot, he doesn't touch that ball.
- 3:18It's just the way betting goes. But that was a double way me
- 3:21because we end up losing on Dallas because instead of
- 3:24getting the ball back in, since he's end with an opportunity to
- 3:27win the game and cover the number, they give it up since he
- 3:30scores a touchdown. And why was that brutal?
- 3:32Because that touchdown killed the Dallas 5 1/2.
- 3:35And then also, you know, if Dallas were to get that ball
- 3:38back in score, we could have even cashed that over because if
- 3:42they, you know, kick a field goal, you come back with a
- 3:44touchdown or they score a touchdown, there's an
- 3:46opportunity to go over that, that 50 or 49 1/2.
- 3:50So even worse, the fact that we beat the closing line with
- 3:53Dallas, like, I don't know what's worse, guys, Would you
- 3:55rather make a sharp bet and beat the closing line and lose or
- 3:58maybe just get rolled and never be in it?
- 4:01In a way, it's I almost feel like these bad beats are worse.
- 4:03They're more painful. But that's sports betting.
- 4:05Got to have thick skin. We continue to grind.
- 4:07We don't get down again, beat the closing line, Dallas 5 1/2,
- 4:11they close 4 1/2, they make a terrible, disgusting error,
- 4:15mistake, whatever you want to call it.
- 4:16And if like, if you're that guy, it's like, dude, what are you
- 4:18doing? Just don't touch the ball anyway
- 4:21that that kind of stuff happens when you're struggling.
- 4:23But anyway, guys 2 and 3 -, 1.3 units.
- 4:26Let's see if we can get it back and start a winning streak for
- 4:28today. Maybe we'll get these bad beats
- 4:30to go our way and we'll get some good breaks when we need it the
- 4:33most. I do want to mention before we
- 4:34dev in our sweats, 4:00 Eastern Time today, I'm doing my first
- 4:38ever TikTok live on behalf of rhythm.
- 4:41So it's going to be similar to the Sunday sweats, but it'll be
- 4:44live on TikTok. I have never logged into TikTok.
- 4:47My loves, my wife loves TikTok, but you kids seem to like it.
- 4:51Rhythm wants to promote the Tick Tock account.
- 4:53So if you're a tick tocker, a tick tocker and you don't stop.
- 4:57I will be there for Eastern Time live from 4:00 to 5:00 going
- 5:00over college basketball sweats for tonight, so look forward to
- 5:03seeing you guys there. And of course, there's always
- 5:06all the best bets available on Juice Reel just by clicking the
- 5:09link when I tweeted out each day for my Twitter account at Josh
- 5:12under score Insights. Or of course, you can follow by
- 5:15having the juice real app going to social click find juicers
- 5:18search ASG under score podcast. But with that being said, let's
- 5:22see if we can win some bets here for tonight.
- 5:24So I want to start off with some college basketball because big
- 5:27college slate tonight. I think there's some
- 5:29opportunities here to make some money.
- 5:31So I don't know how like the first game here, 7:00 Eastern
- 5:34Time, Penn State and Rutgers. Now Penn State comes in.
- 5:38By the way, this is the most heavily bet game of the night.
- 5:39So keep in mind what we like to do in these heavily back games.
- 5:43Go contrarian. But Penn State comes in eight
- 5:46and one. They won two in a row, just took
- 5:48down Purdue. Remember, we had them in a
- 5:51unranked home fav ranked opponent versus Purdue.
- 5:52They won 81 to 70, covered as a 2 point home favorite.
- 5:56On the other hand, Rutgers five and four, they've lost three
- 5:58straight, just fell to Ohio State 80 to 66.
- 6:02Did not cover as a 5 1/2 point Rd. dog.
- 6:04So what have you seen across the market here?
- 6:06Well, this one's kind of an interesting cap because this
- 6:08game opened Rutgers around a one point favorite at home and
- 6:12Rutgers got steamed up all the way to -3 1/2.
- 6:16So on the one hand, I'm saying to myself, OK, pretty clear we
- 6:18got some respective money going with Rutgers.
- 6:21I take a look at the bet splits. Rutgers is getting around 60% of
- 6:24bets, 65% of dollars At DraftKings.
- 6:27At Circa, they're getting 70% of bets, 75% of dollars.
- 6:31So you do have the low, low bets, higher dollars.
- 6:32But also look at it another way. Most heavily bet game of the
- 6:36night, majority of bets here on Rutgers.
- 6:38I'm not going to say it's only public because again, you had
- 6:40that line move -1 up to -3 1/2. But then when I started thinking
- 6:45about, I said, oh, do I want a money line?
- 6:47Rutgers, you know, they're like -165 on the money line.
- 6:50And then I said to myself, what's Ken Palm have?
- 6:52What's, what does Rhythm have? And I pop open my, my Ken Palm
- 6:56account and I, I heard an alarm go off my head.
- 6:58Woo, woo, Ken Palm sound the alarm.
- 7:01You know why? Because Ken Palm has Penn State
- 7:03winning this game by two points. Winning by two points.
- 7:06So what does that mean? That means that, hey, we have a
- 7:09Ken Palm sound the alarm. Ken Palm's got a team winning
- 7:11yet in the market, their dog getting points.
- 7:14Then I dig in a little bit deeper and our friends at
- 7:16Rhythm, they have Penn State plus 1.5 S Ken Palms got him
- 7:22winning. Rhythm has him losing by 1 1/2,
- 7:25and in the betting market, we can buy low and get a 3 1/2.
- 7:28So that's what I did. I took the 3 1/2 here with Penn
- 7:31State. I had a couple people jump out
- 7:33to me and say, hey, you got to take Rutgers.
- 7:34It's fishy. They have the worst record.
- 7:36Penn State's off a big upset when I totally get that.
- 7:39I think that's why you might have seen that early move toward
- 7:41Rutgers. But it got to a point, and this
- 7:43is something that I always look toward when I'm looking at line
- 7:45movement. I'm looking at 1:00 which
- 7:48direction the line is moving, how little or small it's moved
- 7:51in that direction. And then also, you know, is it
- 7:54is there a point at which it hits a high watermark and starts
- 7:57to fall back? And I'm starting to see that at
- 7:593 1/2 because I jumped on Penn State plus 3 1/2 and I'm
- 8:03starting to see a lot of these 3 1/2 get back down to three.
- 8:05So that's telling me that maybe that 3 1/2 was kind of the key
- 8:08number, kind of the high watermark, the best number
- 8:11you're going to get and now starting to see it get back down
- 8:13to three. So if you're going to go, and I
- 8:15wouldn't really call this a quote UN quote sharp bet for
- 8:18Penn State, but it is contrarian at DraftKings and at Circa,
- 8:22you're getting like 40 percent, 30% of bets on Penn State and
- 8:25most heavily bet game the night. So you are contrarian.
- 8:28I'm not going to call it sharp because you don't have RLM, but
- 8:30you do have an inflated line contrarian opportunity again
- 8:35where Ken Palms got him winning, rhythms got him losing by 1 1/2
- 8:37and we're getting a 3 1/2. Dig a little bit deeper here.
- 8:41You do have Ken Palm ranking Penn State much higher, 33 in
- 8:45the country versus 74th. The better offensive efficiency,
- 8:4925th versus 62nd, better defensive efficiency, 37th
- 8:53versus 96th. Nittany Lions by the way, better
- 8:56effective field goal percentage, 59% versus 51%, better
- 9:01three-point shooting, 38% versus 32%.
- 9:04You also have the conference dog angle.
- 9:06So built in familiarity levels, the playing field benefits the
- 9:08team getting points and the Nittany Lions also have a rest
- 9:12advantage. Last played on December 5th,
- 9:14Rutgers played on December 7th. So if you saw that line move
- 9:17toward Rutgers and you said, oh, this is an automatic Rutgers
- 9:19play, I get that you did have the line move.
- 9:22But with Ken Pom saying we should win the game with ruck
- 9:24with Penn State and we are contrarian and it's an inflated
- 9:27line opportunity and rhythms got close to a 1 1/2.
- 9:30I'm taking the points here, guys.
- 9:31I'm going Penn State plus 3 1/2. Shop around.
- 9:34You should be able to find that 3 1/2.
- 9:36But again, a lot of books are getting down to three.
- 9:38You'd love to get that hook and then see this thing close at
- 9:413:00 with some CLV, even though CLV hasn't been kind of us
- 9:44lately. Again, you always want to
- 9:45program your brain to try to beat the market because that
- 9:48will increase your chances of winning long term.
- 9:51But whoa, whoa, let's go. Penn State plus 3 1/2.
- 9:54Next one for you, Late night sweat, Michigan and Arkansas.
- 9:58Now this is a Madison Square Garden game, neutral court New
- 10:01York City. It's part of the Jimmy V
- 10:02classic. If you have 5 minutes, you
- 10:05should watch the Jimmy V speech from back in the day.
- 10:07It'll make you cry, but boy is it a great speech.
- 10:10And if you got a couple extra units, donate to a charity
- 10:12today. Nothing wrong with that as well.
- 10:15Anyway, Arkansas comes in seven and two.
- 10:17They've won two straight, just beat UTSA 75 to 60.
- 10:21Didn't cover though as a 19 1/2 point home favorite.
- 10:24Meanwhile, Michigan 8 and one ranked 14th.
- 10:26They've won seven in a row. We've played him a couple times
- 10:29and they've come through. They beat Iowa 8583 last time,
- 10:33last time out, but they didn't cover as a nine and a half point
- 10:35home favorite. What are we seeing across the
- 10:37market here? Well, this one's interesting
- 10:39because it opened Michigan -4 1/2 neutral court and the public
- 10:43doesn't really know what to do. They like Michigan because
- 10:45they're ranked in a good record, but Arkansas is pretty good
- 10:48team. You know, Coach Cal is, is over
- 10:49there now and they don't know whether to take the points or
- 10:52lay them. But what do we always look for?
- 10:555050 line move when tickets are even.
- 10:57Theoretically, a line shouldn't move at all because the odds
- 10:59makers pretty much have no reason to adjust the price if
- 11:01they have balanced action yet. 5050 and this line is going
- 11:05toward Arkansas. So Arkansas went from plus 4 1/2
- 11:08down to +4 and some books are even down to 3 1/2.
- 11:12So that told me that respected sharp wagers are going
- 11:14Razorbacks in the points I jumped on Arkansas +4.
- 11:18Shop around, you should be able to get a four.
- 11:20But also cool things to like about Arkansas one at Circa they
- 11:23have a really good bets with. They're only getting 54% of bets
- 11:27but 91% of dollars tells me the bigger sharper wagers are liking
- 11:31Arkansas on this one. Also we have Ken Palm putting
- 11:35Michigan here with a win by 4 exactly so you don't have the
- 11:38edge. I would have loved to have
- 11:39gotten the hook with a four and a half, but it's not like he's
- 11:41got him winning by 6 or 8. You know?
- 11:43Still, you're right on the number.
- 11:44Arkansas, though, has the better three-point shooting 36% versus
- 11:4835%, better free throw shooting, 72% versus 69%.
- 11:53They take better care of the ball.
- 11:54This could be important here in a tight game, but Arkansas ranks
- 11:57157 in the country in terms of turning it over.
- 12:00When you have the ball, do you give it up?
- 12:02Michigan ranks 335. Michigan really can turn it
- 12:05over, which can keep you in the game if you're Arkansas
- 12:08Razorbacks are a dog who can score system match or averaging
- 12:10nearly 80 points a game. So hopefully score enough to
- 12:13keep pace cover the number and classic buy low unranked dog
- 12:18verse sell high ranked opponent. So tickets are relatively split,
- 12:21but big money on Sir at circa is on Arkansas.
- 12:24The lines going to Arkansas. We got some advantages here
- 12:27offensively and taking care of the ball and our friends at
- 12:29rhythm. They have Arkansas plus 3.5 and
- 12:33+3. So I'm going to take the points
- 12:35in Madison Square Garden, give me Arkansas.
- 12:38Michigan can win, but can you win by three or less?
- 12:41I'm taking Arkansas +4. Now, those are your two most
- 12:44heavily bet games tonight. Now let's go to a tiny little
- 12:46game that pace basically no one's looking at in terms of the
- 12:50public perspective, but we like these obscure sharp line moves.
- 12:53This reminds me quite a bit in terms of last night's game,
- 12:57South Carolina State. And the other thing about
- 12:59Norfolk State last night, guys, did you guys notice?
- 13:01We money line them -3 1/2, they close 4 1/2, we still lose
- 13:03Norfolk State. So I don't know it's just
- 13:05bizarre in the betting market recently.
- 13:08But anyway, Portland comes in at home for this one.
- 13:12They are let's see, three and six haven't been great.
- 13:16They've lost for their last five lost to Kent State 76 to 57,
- 13:20didn't cover as a 13 1/2 point Rd. dog.
- 13:23Kansas City coming here on the road, four and seven have
- 13:26dropped three straight. Just lost to Montana State 74 to
- 13:2962 didn't cover as a nine point Rd. dog.
- 13:32What are we seeing across the market here?
- 13:34Well, it's a 10:00 game late night.
- 13:36It's extremely low bet. No one, no one has any interest
- 13:38in this game. We have a good sharp line move
- 13:40in favor of Portland this game. Open Portland.
- 13:43The pilots by the way, great, great nickname.
- 13:46Open very short -1 Portland. Now Portland's up to -2 1/2.
- 13:51Some shops are juiced like it may even go to three.
- 13:53So one sided movement in favor of Portland.
- 13:56Now at Circa, Portland is only getting 33% of spread bets, but
- 14:0098% of spread dollars. That tells me the wise guys who
- 14:04like this game, even though the public doesn't care about it,
- 14:06the wise guys are heavy on Portland here.
- 14:08Great low bets, higher dollar split.
- 14:10Now Ken Palm is Portland winning by one, and then Rhythm has
- 14:14Portland -1.2. So it's not a huge edge there.
- 14:17But that tells me, hey, I'm going money line.
- 14:20Instead of laying the points laying at 2 1/2 for three, they
- 14:22win by, you know, one or two. I lose my 2 1/2 for three, but
- 14:26this is a case where money line isn't that that terrible I got
- 14:29-145 which is an awful but again, money line Short
- 14:32favorites. You want to win that bet if they
- 14:34win below the margin, but you'll like this on the money line. 68%
- 14:39bets 80% dollars at DraftKings. SO1 sided action on Portland to
- 14:43win the game. Portland has the better
- 14:45effective field goal percentage, 47% versus 42%.
- 14:49They shoot the three better 32% versus 28%.
- 14:52They do have a one day rest advantage.
- 14:55Last played December 6th versus Kansas City, playing on the 7th
- 14:58and home Rd. on the road this year, Kansas City O and four at
- 15:03home, Portland two and one. So the two early games we talked
- 15:07about where you know kind of line move, contrarian plays.
- 15:10This one is a little bit obscure line move with a with a good
- 15:14edge here to hopefully win straight up.
- 15:15So I took Portland the pilots baby, let's win the damn game.
- 15:19I got him at -145 So Penn State plus 3 1/2, Arkansas plus 4
- 15:24Portland State money line -145 Now over to the NBA.
- 15:29Two games tonight and I got 2 bets for you.
- 15:32First one, 7:00 game here tonight.
- 15:34We have the Orlando Magic playing the Milwaukee Bucks and
- 15:39I believe this is one of the one of the games for the cup.
- 15:44Yeah, the NBA Cup quarter quarterfinals, So we have seen
- 15:47this line move toward the Magic. Bucks were as high as -8 1/2.
- 15:51Now line is down to 7 or 6 1/2. We didn't see the total tick up
- 15:55to 13 and F up to 2:15. But what I noticed is a really
- 15:59good play here on a particular player.
- 16:02It's not Giannis, it's not Chris Middleton or Dame Willard or the
- 16:07Magic. You don't even know these guys
- 16:08anymore. Franz Wagner got hurt, Bang,
- 16:10Carroll got hurt, but it's Torian Prince.
- 16:13So Torian Prince over 3 1/2 rebounds and assists.
- 16:18So he's got to get a combined 4 rebounds and assists, 4
- 16:21rebounds, no assists. You know, 2 rebounds, 2 assists,
- 16:24whatever combination over 3 1/2. So we need 4 / 3 1/2 rebounds
- 16:29and assists at -115. Now couple things to like about
- 16:33this Torian Prince play is the fact that you have a really good
- 16:38rhythm edge. So Rhythm is predicting a
- 16:40combined rebounds and assists 6.2.
- 16:43So obviously over three and half we need 4 to cash.
- 16:45Rhythm is predicting 6.2. Also, if you go to the rhythm
- 16:49page and you just go to props, it'll give you the basically the
- 16:52best props of the day. This is one of your best props
- 16:54of the day. 61.2 distance to market, 86% win probability.
- 16:59Torian Prince is obviously no All Star, but he has gone over
- 17:03this number and four of his last five at home.
- 17:05He's gone over an 8 of his last 10 at home.
- 17:09He's averaging at home 5.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists and
- 17:14usually even better at home than on the road.
- 17:16On the road, 3.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists.
- 17:19But this is a guy who gets typically around, you know, he's
- 17:21a starter. He gets around 20 minutes a
- 17:23night and can you get us a few rebounds, a few assists?
- 17:26This is what one of the top rhythm angles of the night.
- 17:29I like it as well because it's kind of an under the radar guy
- 17:31that no one's thinking about yet.
- 17:33Rhythm has a really good model here for him to hopefully cash
- 17:36this ticket for us. So I'm going to go Tory and
- 17:37Prince on the Bucks on their starters, but maybe you never
- 17:41heard of him. Remember, he was at Baylor and
- 17:43he's really good. He's bounced around.
- 17:44He's a veteran at this point. But over 3 1/2 rebounds and
- 17:47assists at -115 I got that that I think ESPN bet, but let's go
- 17:52Torian Prince. Then last bit of the night, we
- 17:56got another NBA Cup game, quarterfinals, Dallas Mavericks
- 17:59in the Oklahoma City Thunder going in this one.
- 18:01We have Oklahoma City around -4 1/2 favorite.
- 18:05The total is what I'm going to focus on because I'm going to
- 18:08play a contrarian inflated under give me Mavericks Thunder under.
- 18:13Now here's the thing. Try to find the hook on the
- 18:15under 231 1/2. I was able to find that at bet
- 18:18MGM under 231 1/2 at -115. But a couple things like about
- 18:22this under. The first is that it has risen
- 18:25it open at 228 1/2. It's all the way up to two 31231
- 18:291/2. So again, there was some money
- 18:31to hit the over, but now if you're playing the over two
- 18:3331231 1/2, you're getting the worst of it.
- 18:36So why not sell high and play a a inflated under It's very
- 18:41contrarian. By the way, this is a nine 930
- 18:45game on TNT. So contrarian and a heavily bet
- 18:48primetime game at DraftKings. Only 25% of bets are taking the
- 18:52under, but it's accounting for 46% of dollars.
- 18:55So heavily bet primetime go under and then at circa caters
- 18:59to sharper betters only 50% of bets on the under, but it
- 19:02accounts for 88% of dollars. Great low bets, higher dollars
- 19:06bets with other thing I like about this under two really good
- 19:10defensive efficiency teams. OKC is number one in the NBA and
- 19:14defensive efficiency Dallas is number 9.
- 19:17You also look at the Rhythm Edge here.
- 19:18Rhythm has a 230.4 and a 229.5 predicted model here.
- 19:25So it's the most heavily bet game of the night.
- 19:27It's on TNT heavily bet primetime public's going over
- 19:3175% of bets of DraftKings. Yet we can sell high and go
- 19:34under and go contrarian with a great bet split at circa 2 top
- 19:3810 defensive efficiency teams with an inflated under with
- 19:42rhythm again cashing by the skin of your teeth 23229 I'm going to
- 19:46play this under guys give me under 231 1/2.
- 19:49Do your best to find the hook that's at bet MGM under 231 1/2
- 19:53Dallas and OK C so that about does everybody another pod here
- 19:57in the books. Can we win a damn bet?
- 19:59I tell you, when things are going well, you feel like you
- 20:01can't lose when things are. Not going well.
- 20:04It's like, how are you going to hurt me again tonight?
- 20:06But of course, things aren't going well.
- 20:08Don't give up, don't go on tilt, don't try to, you know, get it
- 20:11all back in one fell swoop. Grinders with blinders.
- 20:14Let's see if we can get three wins out of our five bets here
- 20:16for tonight. So finishing up the pod here, as
- 20:19always, wrapping it up. First thing I want to mention is
- 20:21thank you for tuning in, taking the time out of your day to
- 20:23listen to these breakdowns. And of course, it means a lot to
- 20:26me that again, you have busy lives.
- 20:29You put put aside, I don't know, half hour to listen to each
- 20:31podcast and grind with a team. And at least I know when you
- 20:34know I'm getting bad beated by the Cowboys.
- 20:36Maybe I'm not alone. So misery loves company
- 20:38sometimes. But I can tell you it will turn
- 20:41and hopefully it'll turn tonight.
- 20:42But anyway, if you enjoy the pod #1 thank you.
- 20:45Secondly, could you please help me grow the pod by doing one
- 20:48very simple, easy thing? Could you give this podcast a
- 20:51five star review on Spotify or iTunes?
- 20:54I would go a long way to helping us grow the pod to gain more
- 20:57listens, more likes. If you want to leave a good note
- 21:00or click the follow button or recommend it to a friend, that
- 21:02will be also be just great. So I would appreciate a five
- 21:05star review if you can spare one.
- 21:07Secondly, I know it's the holiday season and you enjoy
- 21:10data-driven betting and maybe you have someone in your life
- 21:12who needs to be introduced to data-driven betting and I have
- 21:16the perfect way to do it. You get them a book, a book
- 21:18called the all the everything guy is almost going to call my
- 21:21my podcast, not the all systems go sports book, but the
- 21:26everything guide to sports betting.
- 21:27That's right, my baby. I wrote that book a couple years
- 21:30ago, a few years ago at this point, time flies, but it's got
- 21:32everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are set, how
- 21:35and why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate
- 21:37sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
- 21:40for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
- 21:43included in the everything guide to sports betting.
- 21:45So with, you know, Christmas closing in Hanukkah, before you
- 21:48know it, you got to get that stocking stuff for that gift.
- 21:51You have no clue what to get. Your dad, your uncle, your
- 21:53cousin, your mom, your aunt, your grandparent, your
- 21:56granddaughter. Get on the everything guide to
- 21:58sports betting. Maybe they can turn 15 bucks
- 22:01into 100 bucks. That'll be pretty cool.
- 22:03Now if you haven't done it yet, I also would love for you guys
- 22:06to download both Rhythm and Juice Reel, my two favorite
- 22:08sports betting apps. Once you get those downloaded,
- 22:11you'll be off and running. But Rhythm is great for their AI
- 22:13backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
- 22:16Helped us cash CD Lamb last night and then also juice reel
- 22:20where the all systems go podcast best bets are located each day,
- 22:23but also you can get robo Jackson best bet picks,
- 22:27arbitrage plays, sharp mush indicators, shop for the best
- 22:30line futures prices, and you know what if you have great bets
- 22:33that you want to share with the world, you can post your plays
- 22:36there and charge whatever you want a dollar a week, $100 a
- 22:40week. It's up to you, but it gives you
- 22:41the freedom to bet on yourself if you have some good bets that
- 22:44you want to share with the world.
- 22:46But of course, once you download them, use the seven day free
- 22:49trial, see if you like it and I think you will.
- 22:52Lastly, of course, I'm going to leave you with a couple things.
- 22:54First, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
- 22:58River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
- 23:00Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or
- 23:03Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
- 23:06woods in Massachusetts. We're out in the desert where
- 23:09the true grinders get down or Billy Walter sends his number
- 23:11runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
- 23:14Point. Sweat and sharp and train plays
- 23:16jumping in the stadium swimming pool at Circa.
- 23:18When you cash a big ticket, you're going to flash me at
- 23:20least a couple winners. CD Lamb, South Carolina State.
- 23:24But man, the Cowboys plus 5 1/2 put it right up there with the
- 23:27bad beats that we've been suffering recently.
- 23:30Ozuri a war away over one away. Come on, man, you had to touch
- 23:36that ball and kill us last night.
- 23:39Absolutely brutal. But hey, hopefully, hopefully
- 23:42those breaks will start to go our way starting tonight.
- 23:44But guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
- 23:46you. We're going to post about the
- 23:47book Sweatshop Contrarian plays all night long.
- 23:50So have a great night everybody. Let's see if we can cash some
- 23:52tickets. As always, whether up or down,
- 23:55hot or cold, treading water, fighting for a win, avoiding bad
- 23:59beats and and been trying to get back to our covers.
- 24:02Whatever the case may be, try not to overreact.
- 24:05Good or bad, up or down, let's stick with it.
- 24:08Let's continue to flat bet. Let's play the system matches
- 24:11and let's have this luck turn a little bit here as we've been in
- 24:13a bit of a rough a rough patch since Friday.
- 24:16But of course, guys, my parting words, as always, stay sharp,
- 24:19stay contrarian, bet against the public, place yourself on the
- 24:21side of the house. Always be with the smart money,
- 24:24never against the will smart money.
- 24:25Win every time. No, we beat the closing line
- 24:28with the Cowboys, beat the closing line with Norfolk State.
- 24:31What happened? We lost both bets, but I can
- 24:33tell you one thing, if you consistently beat closing lines
- 24:35long term, if you're consistently betting games with
- 24:38your head and not your heart against the public, with the
- 24:40house, with the pros flatbed, avoid parlays, get that CLV.
- 24:44You know, hey, we're going to be OK long term if we stick to that
- 24:47blueprint. So have a great night everybody.
- 24:49See if we can get some winners and of course, we'll be right
- 24:52back at it. Win, lose or draw for tomorrow,
- 24:55which will be episode 180 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
- 24:58podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, enjoy the
- 25:02hoops tonight.