Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 61 - 6/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 61 - 6/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 61 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday. The work week is coming to an
0:37
end. We got a big weekend ahead here,
0:39
guys. Today was, and if you missed it,
0:41
the Celtics championship parade. So if you're like me in New
0:45
England, in the city of Boston, no, I didn't go to the parade.
0:48
I'm, I'm getting a little bit too old for that.
0:50
I guess maybe if I'm lucky enough to, you know, have a kid
0:53
one day who's a fan, I'll take him or her to their first
0:55
championship parade. But waking up early, boozing for
0:59
breakfast, I don't know, 30, I'm 37 years old.
1:01
I don't know if I can turn around that quickly anymore
1:04
because I do have a big weekend and I'm going to a big wedding.
1:07
So shout out to my buddy Fed who I grew up with.
1:09
He is getting married to a beautiful girl, his bride to be
1:13
Sue Ellen this weekend. So I actually meeting up with
1:16
the crew tomorrow, have a huge day rehearsal dinner, wedding is
1:19
on Sunday, staying the night Saturday and Sunday night.
1:23
So I'm very much looking forward to that.
1:24
A big weekend ahead, but a lot to talk about on today's
1:27
podcast. Now looking back toward last
1:29
night, one and 1 -, 0.09 units, basically a Washington Yankees.
1:35
What a pathetic no show absolutely rolled by the
1:38
Baltimore Orioles. So throw that one aside.
1:40
Not even close. But we did have a good winner
1:42
there with the Sparks and the Liberty to the over and the
1:44
WNBA. Remember, we had a market move
1:47
to the over where the total opened 162 1/2 got bet up to 165
1:51
and a half. 166 had a great bet split to the over.
1:54
But the cherry on top was our friends at Rhythm and their
1:57
predictive model telling us to go over.
2:00
Remember they are projecting or predicting around 167 points.
2:04
And the brand new community model, which I've been getting a
2:07
lot of questions about, the people want it because Rhythm
2:10
has been working on a new model where basically they kind of
2:13
poll everyone who has a Rhythm account and has created a
2:16
betting system. And if you have a system match
2:17
on that particular game, you know, where are the models
2:20
leaning? Well, last night we talked about
2:22
how the community model edge was on the over, 72.5% of community
2:27
models were on that over, and again, 72.5%.
2:30
As a contrarian, that gets you scared.
2:32
You don't want to be with the majority there.
2:34
But in this situation, I want to be with the majority because
2:36
it's not the public, it's not the drunk guys at the bar who
2:39
have a rhythm account. It's the wise guys and wise gals
2:42
who are into predictive modeling.
2:44
So the fact that we had heavy betting and model matches on the
2:47
over, that was a good sign. So you're able to get that over
2:50
as ended up being a 93 to 80 game.
2:53
Now looking back toward or looking forward toward today, I
2:56
got a huge slate of action for you guys last night.
3:00
Again, only two, only two plays tonight.
3:03
We're locked and loaded. I have a 7 pack.
3:05
That's right. I'm walking the edge here.
3:07
I don't like to have too many more bets than 7 bets a night.
3:11
But I found a lot of system matches that said, hey, let's
3:13
give it a shot. Because again, I tried to
3:15
whittle them down and say, hey, let me lay off this one, lay off
3:17
that one, but really can make a case for them all.
3:19
So I'm going to ride with a big seven pack tonight, six Major
3:23
League Baseball bets as well as awnba play another game here
3:27
where I'm targeting a total and then you know what it is.
3:31
You know what it ain't, but what it is is aufc Friday biting in
3:36
the arena. I have a biting bet for you with
3:38
a huge steam move, a great low bets, higher dollar bet split
3:42
and a big youth advantage. So stay tuned for who that match
3:45
is for the UFC this weekend. So without further ado real
3:49
quick because of the great winner there from rhythm.
3:52
Have you downloaded the rhythm app yet?
3:53
Well, you better go do it. All you got to do is go to my
3:56
Twitter page at Josh under score insights, very top of the page,
4:00
the pinned tweet. You'll see a link there with a
4:02
custom link for rhythm. Give it a give it a shot 7 day
4:05
free trial, predictive analytics and edges for both game bets and
4:10
props. Obviously WNBA is the go to
4:12
right now, but really golf I, I don't probably give golf it's
4:16
due, but really rhythm does a great job with their AI caddy.
4:19
So if you like betting golf rhythm can help you actually bet
4:21
hole to hole. So like you know, going on to
4:23
the into the 4th hole, you know what's the edge on a birdie
4:27
versus a par rhythm is doing a great job there.
4:29
So if you haven't done it yet, you can also click the custom
4:32
link within the bio description of this podcast, but make sure
4:35
you go sign up and give rhythm a shot.
4:37
I think you're going to like it. So with that being said, let's
4:40
get right into some Major League Baseball 'cause as I, as I
4:42
mentioned at the outset, it's a big baseball night for you guys.
4:46
So first on the board, I'm going to look toward an interleague
4:48
match up here, 6:40 PM Eastern Time, the Tampa Bay Rays and the
4:52
Pittsburgh Pirates. Now going to this one, one thing
4:56
I've noticed is a big steam move in favor of Tampa Bay.
4:59
Now setting the stage here. Both teams are below 500.
5:02
Tampa Bay comes into this 136 and 39, but they did just take
5:06
two or three from the Twins and they have won three of their
5:09
last four. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, very
5:11
similar 36 and 38, they just took two or three from
5:15
Cincinnati and they've also won three or four.
5:17
So it looks like pretty even on paper.
5:19
And really where this thing opened was basically a pick em
5:21
game. You had pretty much a, you know
5:24
-110 both sides. You had some shops.
5:27
Pittsburgh slightly favored at -115.
5:30
What we've seen across the market is a big dog to fave line
5:33
move or pick em to fave line move in favor of the Tampa Bay
5:36
Rays. The Rays at one point getting
5:38
plus 100 maybe -1 O 5. They've moved all the way to
5:41
-120 I see one shop even a little bit higher, inching up
5:44
closer toward -130 So pretty consistent movement.
5:48
As soon as the sign was available.
5:49
A lot of smart money hammer Tampa Bay.
5:51
So that was the first thing that jumped out to me.
5:53
Now pitching advantage here. Hopefully we'll have an
5:56
advantage in favor of Tampa Bay. Ryan Peppiot, four and four,
6:00
4.57 ERA. He'll be opposed by Carmen.
6:03
I'm going to butcher this kids name.
6:05
Carmen Mlodsky, Ski Mlansky. Mlod Skinsky, I can't, I'm
6:11
sorry, buddy, I can't pronounce your name.
6:12
Anyway, one and two, 4.42 ERA Milad Skinsky looks like he's
6:17
going to just be an opener, so maybe just go one inning or two
6:19
innings. But Ryan Peppiot, he's actually
6:21
been much better on the road than at home on the road, 3.18
6:24
ERA versus at home 5.36. He's going to a pitcher's
6:28
ballpark on the road here for tonight.
6:30
So hopefully that's an advantage in favor of Tampa.
6:32
I forgot to mention this, the outset, but a great bet split on
6:35
Tampa Bay. Only 54% of bets, but 69% of
6:39
money on Tampa Bay. So basically a 5050 line move,
6:43
54% slight, slight, tiny majority.
6:46
You really shouldn't see a, you know, 15/20/25 cents steam move
6:49
off 54%. So tells us that even though the
6:51
public split again, nearly seven out of $10 are on Tampa, causing
6:55
that move in favor of the Rays. And then Rays would also match
6:58
quite a few betting systems here.
7:00
Short Rd. favorites Sweet spot -130 or less.
7:03
Those teams are 109 and 8656% with a 4% ROI this year.
7:08
If you are a road favorite with steam Rd. favorite with Steam
7:11
$0.10 or more 43 and 2365 percent, 10% ROI.
7:16
Both teams are below 500. Take the favorite very simple
7:19
here. Also matching with Tampa, that's
7:21
152 and one O 260%. And then lastly a non division
7:25
Rd. favorite off a win 87 and 6657% and you have that classic
7:31
interleague favorite as well. Lack of familiarity, hopefully
7:34
benefiting the better team here. So you add it all up, Tampa,
7:37
Pittsburgh, they look very similar on paper, but all the
7:39
smart money's pouring in on the Rays.
7:41
So that's where I'm going. Give me Tampa Bay guys, shop
7:43
round. I got the Rays at -123 keep on
7:47
cruising. I'm a glutton for punishment.
7:49
And even though this team was a complete embarrassment and not
7:52
even, not even close, they'd maybe score one or two runs and
7:55
keep up three the very next inning.
7:57
You know, I'm talking about the Yankees again.
7:59
How pathetic was that yesterday? But here I am going right back
8:02
to the well playing New York. Give me the Yankees here today,
8:05
guys. This looks fishy in favor of New
8:07
York. Now the Braves going into it
8:10
entering the the Bronx here for a big series 41 and 31.
8:14
They just swept the Tigers. They won the series finale on
8:16
Wednesday 7 to nothing as a -, 130 home favorite.
8:19
Meanwhile, the Yankees 51 and 26 lost two O 3 of the OS again
8:23
lost seventeen to five yesterday as a -, 165 home favorite on you
8:27
know, side note, Luis heel, I give you props.
8:30
Rookie of the year favorite. Been great all year.
8:33
And then the time I bet on you, I give up like eight runs.
8:35
So thanks to Luis Heel. Anyway, pitching matchup for
8:38
tonight, Chris Sale, the lefty nine and two, 2.98 ERA.
8:42
He'll be opposed by fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon.
8:45
Nine and three, 3.28 ERA. But this is all about a dog to
8:49
fave line move in favor of the Yankees because the Atlanta
8:52
Braves went into this one running -115 road favorite.
8:55
Now it's flipped to Yankees -115 or even Yankees -120.
9:00
So a dog to fave line move against Atlanta in favor of New
9:03
York. Now the Yankees are getting
9:05
around 70% of bets but 80% of dollars.
9:08
So pretty good low bets, higher dollars bet split in their
9:10
favor. I'm going to bank on the Yankees
9:12
bats hopefully coming to play and hopefully, dear God can
9:15
they're pitching be a little bit better than yesterday.
9:17
But the Yankees bats two 52113 homers, 389 runs scored.
9:22
Braves are only hitting 24679 homers, 320 runs scored.
9:27
And then a lot of system matches here on the Yankees, favorites
9:30
off a loss versus an opponent off a win.
9:33
Very simple. 241 and one, 5261 percent, 5% ROI.
9:38
Also system match here would be a winning team that's favored
9:43
off a loss, 61% this season. The Yankees, by the way, are 40
9:47
and 2067% with a 12% ROI as a favorite.
9:51
Even though they lost yesterday as a favorite, they're still the
9:54
4th best chalk team in baseball. Coral Tibetting seen some under
9:58
money come in total was eight down to 7 1/2.
10:01
But that would match with a favorite low total.
10:03
So if your amount of expected run scored more likely to come
10:06
from quote UN quote that better team.
10:08
That system that we talked about previously that when a favorite
10:11
sees the total fall in the same game, the favorite end ends up
10:15
winning 59% of the time this season.
10:17
And then Chris Sale 6 ERA in three June starts, he's given up
10:21
twelve runs and 18 innings pitched.
10:23
Rodon has been good at home, 32.3 OERA at home versus 3.86 on
10:28
the road. So the Yankees owe US1 tonight
10:30
and they better get us a win. I'm on the Yankees dog to fave
10:33
line move. I got New York, I got a -, 115.
10:36
Now you're looking at around -120 next one up, Toronto Blue
10:41
Jays at the Cleveland Guardians. I'm going Guardians here guys.
10:45
Little bit of line movement, favorite of Cleveland.
10:47
They went from around -120 to -125 -, 130.
10:51
But let's set the stage here. Blue Jays are 35 and 39.
10:54
Just got swept by the Red Sox, lost that last series finale
10:57
seven to three as a -, 135 home favorite.
11:00
On the flip side, the Guardians 46 and 26 just took two or three
11:03
against the Mariners. You may have had them yesterday.
11:06
That was a sharp report play that I wrote about.
11:08
So maybe you got a winner with with the Guardians yesterday,
11:11
but they won six to three as a -, 125 home favorite.
11:15
Tonight series opener. The Jays are sending out Rady
11:18
Ariel Rodriguez. He's O and one 4.11 ERAI believe
11:21
he's coming off the DL. He hasn't pitched in quite a
11:23
while or the injured list now as they like to call it, but he'll
11:27
be opposed by the ageless wonder.
11:28
Carlos Carrasco, two and six 5.8 OERA.
11:32
Again, numbers don't really, you know, give, give you much
11:35
confidence in Carrasco, but hopefully the line movement will
11:38
give you some confidence here in the guardians.
11:40
Anyway, guardians -120 closer to now -130 so line movement in
11:43
their favor. Guardians are getting 80% of
11:46
bets, 95% of dollars, a big plus 15% smart money discrepancy.
11:51
I'm going to bank on Cleveland's offense.
11:52
They're hitting two 4482 bombs, 360 runs scored.
11:57
Toronto's hitting two 2233, only 60 homers, 287 runs scored.
12:03
Guardians, by the way, 32 and 1470 percent, 22% ROI as a
12:08
favorite this year. And when they are a home
12:10
favorite, they're 21 and 775%, almost a 30% ROI.
12:15
Those are the two best chalk records in baseball overall and
12:18
at home Toronto, by the way, just 17 and 20 on the road.
12:21
Cleveland 23 and nine at home. One of the best home teams.
12:24
Guardians have that classic non division favorite value.
12:27
So lack of familiarity benefiting the better team.
12:30
Cleveland six and four over their last 10, they're hitting
12:32
278 with a 352 ERA. Toronto's four and six, their
12:37
last ten only hitting 231 with a 364 ERA.
12:40
And then lastly, you know, again, it's a relatively short
12:43
chalk price here for Cleveland, but if it gets into a tight game
12:46
late, you know, hopefully Cleveland rolls.
12:48
But if we're into a beat off here late, hopefully that's an
12:50
advantage to the guardians because they have the much
12:52
better bullpen. Guardians have the top bullpen
12:55
in baseball, 2.36 ERA. Blue Jays have the fifth worst
12:59
4.66. So I'm going to Cleveland here
13:01
guys, shop round. I got guardians at -125.
13:04
Now you're looking as a little bit higher, maybe closer to a -,
13:07
130. Keep on cruising my Boston Red
13:10
Sox facing the Cincinnati red legs.
13:13
Let's go Red Sox. I'm a Sox fan and I'm a fan of a
13:17
sharp move on Boston here for tonight.
13:19
So Red Sox coming to this one five games above 500.
13:22
I believe that's the maybe the first time all year they've been
13:25
five games up. But they're 40 and 35.
13:27
They're playing great. They've won seven of their last
13:29
eight. They just swept the Blue Jays.
13:31
They won that series finale seven to three as a + 120 Rd.
13:34
dog. Meanwhile, the Red Legs, 35 and
13:36
39 just dropped two or three against the Pirates.
13:39
They lost on Wednesday and the series finale won nothing as a +
13:43
115 road dog. Tonight's interleague series
13:46
opener, the Red Sox are going with Rady Cutter Crawford, who's
13:49
three and six with a 3.54 ERA. He'll be opposed by the Reds
13:53
lefty Andrew Abbott. Five and six, 3.42 ERA.
13:57
So what have you seen across the market here?
13:59
Well, another dog to fave line move, this time in favor of
14:02
Boston. This game opened with the Reds a
14:05
short -115 home favorite. Now it's flipped to Boston -115
14:09
and Boston is even as high as -120 at some shop.
14:12
So we talked earlier about that dog to fave move in favor of
14:15
Tampa Bay, in favor of New York. Well, same sort of thing here.
14:19
You're seeing this big line move in favor of the Red Sox dog to
14:22
fave, which you always love to see.
14:24
Red Sox are getting 72% of bets, but 81% of dollars.
14:28
So low bets, higher dollars bet split.
14:30
Also the better offense. Red Sox bats have been real hot
14:33
recently. They're hitting 25481 homers,
14:36
350 runs scored. Reds are hitting 2/25/72 homers.
14:41
309 runs scored since the matches here on Boston.
14:45
Both day off take the favorite as both teams were off
14:48
yesterday. Favorite in here in this game is
14:50
Boston. Those favorites are 497 and
14:53
three O 862% with a 3% ROI since 20/20.
14:58
Sweet spot short Rd. favorites -130 or less 56% with a 4% ROI.
15:03
Home Rd. splits since he a game below 500 at home. 18 and 19.
15:07
Red Sox been pretty good on the road, 22 and 15, and Cutter
15:11
Crawford been better on the road than at home.
15:13
On the road, 2.6 to ERA. At home, 4.15.
15:17
Meanwhile, the Red Sox against southpaws, they're hitting 259.
15:20
That's the 10th best in baseball.
15:22
But the Sox are red hot. They got a good steam move dog
15:25
to fave interleague. Favorite system match.
15:27
I'm going with the Red Sox here, guys, shop round.
15:29
I got the Red Sox at -115 Now you're looking maybe closer to
15:32
-120. Keep on cruising.
15:35
Another 7:10 PM first pitch, Seattle and Miami.
15:39
Seattle here on the road going to Miami.
15:42
We just mentioned Seattle having just dropped two of three
15:45
against the Guardians. The Mariners still low on the
15:47
year are 44 and 33. Meanwhile, Miami 25 and 49.
15:52
They did just take two or three against Saint Louis.
15:54
But looking toward the pitching match up here for tonight.
15:57
George Kirby going for the Mariners.
15:59
He's six and five with a 3.54 ERA.
16:02
He'll be opposed by Taylor. Sorry.
16:04
Trevor Rogers, who's one and eight five point O 9 ERA.
16:08
What are we seeing across the market here?
16:10
Well, a ton of movement in favor of Seattle.
16:13
This game opened with Seattle around a -, 150 Rd. favorite.
16:17
Now Seattle's up to around -170 I see some shops even closer to
16:21
-180 so consistent one way movement in favor of the
16:24
Mariners tells me a lot of smart money has hit the Mariners.
16:28
Mariners are getting 90% bets, but 94% dollars.
16:32
If we dig a little deeper here, one thing the advantage
16:35
hopefully for Seattle would be the offense that have 85 bombs,
16:39
299 runs scored, only 59 homers with 264 runs scored for Miami.
16:45
Digging into the pitchers as well, George Kirby, he has a 1.5
16:49
OERA in three June starts. Seattle is 3 and O in those
16:53
games. Miami, this is a crazy stat.
16:56
Trevor Rogers has made fourteen starts this year.
16:58
Miami is one in 13 in those fourteen starts and at home he
17:03
has an ERA of 5.35 versus 4.75 on the road.
17:07
So I want to back Kirby. I want to bet against Rogers.
17:10
Interleague favorite. Also a correlative betting
17:13
favorite. Low total told this one is 7
17:15
1/2. Bunch of system matches on the
17:17
Mariners Rd. favorites with steam 65% this year.
17:21
A good favorite off a loss versus bad team.
17:23
Also 65% this season. Winning team favored off after a
17:27
loss, 61% favored off a loss opponent off a win 62%.
17:32
They're all matching here in favor of Seattle.
17:34
And to put a little cherry on top, our friends at Juice Reel
17:38
are Robo Jackson AI the bot, the guy who recommends 2 bets each
17:43
day from compiling all the Juice Reel data.
17:46
One of his two best bet recommendations today is
17:49
Seattle. So with Juice Reel recommending
17:51
Seattle, sharp line move towards Seattle.
17:53
A lot of system matches. I'm going with Seattle here
17:55
guys, shop round. I got the Mariners at -170 then
18:00
last bet of the night in Major League Baseball before we get to
18:02
some WNBA and finish up with some biting little bit of UFC.
18:06
Let's go to the Colorado Rockies.
18:08
What do you say? Let's go to Colorado where
18:10
Washington is visiting. The Colorado Rockies going into
18:14
this one we have. The Washington Nationals have
18:17
been pretty competitive this year.
18:19
They're only two games below 536 and 38.
18:22
They just dropped two or three though against Arizona.
18:26
Meanwhile, the Rockies, one of the worst teams in baseball, 26
18:29
and 49, just dropped three or four against the Dodgers.
18:32
If you had the the Rockies or the run line a few days ago when
18:37
Hernandez should have struck out and then it was a bad call and
18:39
then he hit a home run and they lost again.
18:41
I I can't get over that. I had no, I had no dog in that
18:43
fight. But that was just an incredible
18:45
situation if you if you know what I'm talking about.
18:47
But anyway, game one of the series pitching match up here.
18:51
We have the nationals going with DJ hers.
18:55
He's one and one lefty 3.77 ERA. He'll be opposed by Dakota
18:59
Hudson two and nine 4.89 ERA. But what have we seen across the
19:03
market here? Well, really all movement in
19:05
favor of the Nationals. That's where I'm going.
19:07
Give me the Nats guys. This game opened very short,
19:11
like a pick em or a very short, you know, Washington -110 -,
19:15
115. Now we're seeing Washington.
19:17
Washington up to -120 -, 125 S good movement here in favor of
19:22
the Nationals. Looks very similar, you know,
19:25
kind of to that kind of Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rd. movement as
19:29
well. But line going to Washington,
19:32
Washington's getting 70% of bets, nearly 80% of dollars.
19:36
And a lot of system matches on Washington one would be just in
19:39
general the short Rd. favorite -130 or less the sweet spot
19:43
favorite. 109 and 8656 percent, 4% ROI, both below 500.
19:49
Take the favorite 60% Rd. favorite off a loss and also
19:53
fade. Colorado literally have a system
19:55
called fade call 49 and 2665 percent 5% ROI.
20:00
You'll get Dakota Hudson, he's been bad at home, 7.16 ERA on
20:04
the road he's been decent 3 point O 9.
20:06
Colorado is also only 15 and 22 at home.
20:08
One of the worst home teams in baseball and a non division
20:12
favorite. Lack of familiarity benefiting
20:14
the better team which would match with Washington.
20:16
So I'm taking a shot with the nationals give me Washington.
20:19
I got the Nats at -120 so a six pack.
20:23
Can we get four or more Tampa Bay, New York Yankees, Cleveland
20:28
Guardians, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners and the
20:31
Washington Nationals? Now over to the WNBA because
20:35
there's only one game or there's two games tonight.
20:38
Caitlin Clark I know was in one of them.
20:39
Let's go to the other game, Connecticut Sun and the Las
20:42
Vegas Aces. Now, this one's interesting for
20:45
a couple reasons. One, are the records of these
20:47
teams. This is a 10:00 game.
20:49
The Sun coming to this 113. And one really the best team in
20:53
the WNBA, the Aces, who won it last year and were considered
20:56
the favorite and the best team in the WNBA.
20:59
They're only seven and six. So it's surprising to see Vegas,
21:02
you know, barely above 500. The line did move a little bit
21:06
toward the sun. They went from getting 6 now to
21:08
to getting 5. So if you like a side, you know,
21:11
sun obviously is taking in some line movement.
21:13
But I'm going to look toward the total here.
21:15
I'm going to go right back to the well with hopefully another
21:18
high scoring game. Give me the OVA in this one.
21:20
This looks like exactly carbon copy of the game we won last
21:24
night where we saw the sparks and liberty fly over.
21:28
What I like about this one is the fact that this total open
21:31
162 1/2. It's not been bet up to 165.
21:35
Now some shops are 164 1/2. So try to find a 164 1/2.
21:40
I'm going over here. Just like last night we saw that
21:42
total rise. So right off the bat tells us
21:45
smart money hit this over again. WNBA is a niche market, not a
21:49
ton of public betting. So it tells us that wise guys,
21:52
wise gals who capped the league and know the league and power
21:54
rate the league, they said, hey, this could be a higher scoring
21:57
game. Let's hit the over as soon as it
21:58
opens. But really no buy back
22:00
whatsoever, which is another good sign here.
22:03
Decent bet split around 70% bets, 80% money is on this over.
22:08
If you look at some of the angles here to play the over,
22:11
one would be the aces. They are #1 In terms of pace,
22:14
they're kind of like Gonzaga, You know, they get up and down
22:16
the court score a lot. Aces are #1 offensive rating,
22:20
the sun are #4 offensive rating, so two really good offensive
22:24
clubs. Aces are #1 in points, averaging
22:27
87 points a game. Sun are #6 averaging 81 points a
22:30
game. Both these teams are tied for
22:34
the most free throws made per game, nearly 17 a game.
22:37
So if we get to the line, make your free throws.
22:39
Aces, by the way, they score a lot, they give up a lot.
22:42
I think that's the play here. If you're taking the over, it's
22:43
really the aces style of play. They they're fast, they score a
22:46
lot, they give up a lot. They're averaging, as I
22:48
mentioned, 87 a game, but then giving up 86 a game.
22:52
But the last little cherry on top here would be a system
22:55
match, the same system match that we played yesterday for
22:59
Sparks. Liberty matches this one, and
23:01
it's our system play. When the total rises at least a
23:04
point, take the over. Very, very simple, But you see
23:07
the total go up a point. Follow that sharp money going
23:10
over that system is 22 and 1363% with a 21% ROI.
23:17
So again, you see the total rise.
23:18
Good indication that smart money hit the over.
23:20
So I'm going right back to the, well, Sun Aces over.
23:24
Try to shop around because there's a 164 1/2 out there.
23:28
There's a lot of 160 fives. Try to find the over 164 1/2 for
23:32
Sun Aces over. Now to finish up the pod because
23:37
on Fridays we like to get to place some bets on the UFC
23:40
biting. And I'm really excited because
23:42
tomorrow we have to go and show up at my buddy's wedding venue
23:47
event. We got to get to the hotel at
23:48
11:00 AM. There's going to be a brunch and
23:50
there's going to be UFC that we're going to sweat during the
23:52
day. We're either going to go to Top
23:53
Golf or go to Plain Ridge Park Casino at night.
23:56
So I don't know which one. We'll draw straws and see what
23:59
we end up doing. And then the wedding's on
24:01
Sunday. I can't wait.
24:02
It's going to be a great weekend with my best friends that I grew
24:05
up with and my buddy Fed is pretty much the last of the crew
24:08
to get married. So this is going to be a blowout
24:10
wedding. I'm excited.
24:11
But anyway, we're going to be sweating UFC tomorrow and I do
24:14
have a bet for you. So for those who are unfamiliar
24:17
with UFCI, always try to, you know, kind of mention this but
24:21
different ways to approach it. My way is I have a little bit of
24:24
a model here. I'm looking for younger, taller,
24:27
longer reach line movement, good bet split in terms of bets in
24:32
dollars. So as I'm looking at all of the
24:35
fights or bites for this weekend, I stumbled on one in
24:39
particular that caught my eye. And it is the Bantam weight for
24:43
the UFC Fight Night for tomorrow between King Kyung Ho and Muin
24:49
Gafurov. And I'm going with Muin Gafurov.
24:54
MUIN, his last name is Gafurov. GAFUROV.
24:59
Why do I like Goforov? Well, First off, woke up this
25:02
morning, got a nice little e-mail from my buddy John Ewing
25:04
at Bet MGM. And I noticed that my guy Muin
25:08
Gafurov has one of the best low bets, higher dollars bet split
25:12
and one of the best sharp line moves in his favor.
25:14
So Goforov actually open this one at Bet MGM as just a very
25:19
slight -115 favorite. Now he's been bet up all the way
25:23
to -160 some shops are even like -165 S boom, big movement
25:29
hitting Gofor off -115 to -165 Then we look at the bet split on
25:34
Gofor off. He's only getting 45% of bets,
25:38
but 65% of dollars. So he's getting less than half
25:41
the tickets, but nearly 2/3 of the wagers.
25:43
So what does that tell us? Tells us that he's basically
25:45
contrarian. Publix on Kyung Ho Kang yet
25:49
lines going to Mouin Gofurov. So tells us smart money here is
25:53
on Gofurov. A reverse line move, a fade, the
25:56
trendy dog, a low bets, higher dollars bet split, A + 20% smart
25:59
money discrepancy in front of or in favor of Gofurov.
26:03
Now we got the basically the line movement and the bet split.
26:07
Let's go to the tail of the tape.
26:09
Now, Gofurov isn't checking every box, but he's checking off
26:12
one very important box to me, and that is a youth advantage.
26:16
Muin Ghafurov is 28 years old. His opponent King is 36 years
26:22
old. So that is A8 year youth
26:25
advantage. And again, I always mention
26:27
this, but one of my mentors at the UFC, back in the COVID days
26:30
when nothing was going on and I thought the world was ending and
26:33
we'd never have sports again, we had UFC.
26:35
I'd try to be the best UFC fighter I could be, but one of
26:38
my mentors always told me fade fighters who are 35 or older,
26:42
fade fighters who are five years older than their opponent.
26:45
So the fact that our guy Goforoff is 28 and also he's on
26:49
the rise. He's in his prime versus Kang,
26:52
who's 36 and kind of on the decline.
26:55
I want to bet against King. I want to be on the younger.
26:57
Goforoff now doesn't have the height advantage.
27:00
He's 5-6. His opponent's 5/8 doesn't have
27:03
a reach advantage, 68 inches. His opponent, 73 inches.
27:06
So Goforoff doesn't have the height or the reach, but he's
27:09
got a huge youth advantage. He's got a big sharp line move.
27:12
He's got a great bet split. He's also reading in terms of
27:16
allowing significant strikes, basically how much punishment do
27:18
you take? You basically have Goforoff
27:21
who's better at protecting himself.
27:23
He's only giving up 2.95 significant strikes per minute
27:26
versus 3.33 for King. And then lastly, I think there
27:30
could be a motivational edge for Goforoff because he lost his
27:33
last two fights and his last one I I was reading about he got a
27:37
rear naked choke like in the first round.
27:39
So before it would even started, it was over.
27:41
So I think you're going to get a good effort out of Goforoff and
27:43
the fact that smart money is pouring in in his favour gives
27:47
me more confidence to place a bet on Goforov.
27:49
So for biting fighting tomorrow in the UFC Octagon, I'm going
27:54
with Mouine Goforov on the money line.
27:57
I got Goforov at -160. So that about does it for
28:02
episode 61 of the All systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
28:06
by Rhythm. First off, guys, thank you for
28:09
listening. Thank you for tuning in.
28:11
I want to let you know that I appreciate you taking the time
28:14
out of your day to pull up a chair to the virtual bar to
28:16
listen to about the breakdowns. Maybe you play all the the
28:19
fights or maybe you look forward to one or the other.
28:22
You pick and choose. I hope you know that.
28:23
Any bet that I mentioned on the pot, I personally have put my
28:26
money down on it. But First off, thank you for
28:29
listening. And secondly, can I ask a favor
28:31
of you? Can you make my day by giving
28:34
this podcast a 5 star review? If you're listening on Spotify
28:37
or iTunes, five stars goes a long way.
28:40
Only takes 2 seconds to do it, but it'll help us to rise up the
28:43
ranks and hopefully gain some more credibility and some more
28:46
eyeballs as we look to grow this pod organically.
28:49
Secondly, if you like the breakdowns and the approach to
28:51
sports betting here, no nonsense data, no opinion.
28:55
Just let's go where the smart money's going.
28:57
Let's bet against the public. Let's make sharp bets based on
29:00
our head and not our heart. If that strategy appeals to you,
29:03
I think it probably does if you're listening to this pod.
29:05
But if it appeals to you and you want to learn more and become an
29:07
even better data-driven sports, better than guess what, I wrote
29:10
a book. It's called the everything Guide
29:12
to Sports betting. Just pick up a copy for you or
29:14
for a friend, you can go to Amazon.com.
29:17
It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
29:19
set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
29:22
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
29:25
how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
29:27
management plan. It's all included in my book,
29:30
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
29:32
So it's a great stocking stuffer.
29:33
I know we're a ways away from the holidays, but you know,
29:36
Father's Day just just passed. Maybe it's somebody's birthday.
29:40
Maybe you just want to learn more about sports betting or
29:43
give it to that buddy of yours that parlays everything and then
29:45
say, hey, don't parlay. Flat bet, my man.
29:48
But anyway, pick one up and when I see at the book, I'll sign it
29:50
for you. I'll buy you a beer or a ginger
29:52
ale if you don't drink. But that about does it.
29:55
As we wrap up another week here, going to the tail end of June,
29:59
pretty pretty soon before, you know, it'll be 4th of July.
30:01
But I didn't know if you guys heard this.
30:03
No, Joey Chestnut, or at least as of now, he's not going to be
30:06
in the hot dog contest. So I got to figure out who I'm
30:08
going to take anyway. If if you what did I want to
30:14
say? Oh, of course, mentioned
30:16
earlier, but rhythm juice reel, go sign up for those seven day
30:19
free trials, which give you a leg up here as you're trying to
30:22
make the sharpest bet that you can make.
30:24
But lastly, I always like to end the pod on this, whether I see
30:27
you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode
30:30
Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
30:32
Sun, down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
30:35
Park Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
30:39
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
30:41
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners, where
30:44
the lowest use possible sound at the South Point or sweating,
30:47
sharp contraining plays jumping in the stadium swim pool at
30:49
Circa. When you cash a big ticket,
30:51
wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me, that Yankees
30:54
ticket. What a pathetic performance.
30:56
But you know what? Show me that.
30:57
Sparks Liberty ova with a little assist from Rhythm.
31:01
Nice winner there in the WNBA then guess what?
31:03
First one's on me, next one's on you.
31:04
We're going to post about the book Sweat sharp contrarian
31:07
plays all night long. So have a fantastic Friday
31:10
everybody, have an even better weekend.
31:12
And my parting words as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian.
31:15
Bet against the public, place yourself on the side of the
31:17
house. Always be with the smart money,
31:19
never against the, well, smart money one.
31:21
Every time. Of course not.
31:22
But remember, we're always playing that long game.
31:24
Betting ain't easy. It's hard.
31:26
That's why when you're struggling, can't get too down
31:28
on yourself when you're doing well, give you some confidence
31:30
so you can succeed in a difficult market.
31:32
But if we can find that sweet spot, fearless but discipline,
31:36
get down on the games that fit our model against the public,
31:38
with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get
31:42
that closing line value. If we can do that, we're going
31:44
to be successful sports bettors. So again, have a great weekend.
31:48
I can't wait for a big wedding weekend.
31:50
I really enjoy weddings because it's a chance to hang out with
31:53
your friends and have a couple adult beverages and enjoy the
31:56
times. But hopefully you can cash them
31:57
tickets along the way. Enjoy UFC everybody, I will see
32:01
you at Top Golf or maybe maybe the Plain Ridge Park Casino
32:05
Saturday night. But either way guys, all jokes
32:07
aside, have a great weekend. I'll see you back on Monday for
32:09
episode 62 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
32:14
by Rhythm. Have a great weekend everybody,
32:16
Good luck.