Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL First Look | Week 16 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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NFL First Look | Week 16 | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:06
All system's going clear the lift. What's up everyone? Tyler Tamberline here aka
0:39
Totag and Tambo back for another edition of the NFL First Look Show Here on
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a Tuesday with my guy Degenerate seventy five as always, gonna break all things
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down for you. Interesting week. We've got the Thursday night football game.
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We've got a couple of games on Saturday. We've got a trio games on
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Monday for Christmas holiday season for everybody. Happy Holidays to everybody out there in
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advance. But we're gonna bring take it down for you. We're going to
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go through the nine game slate on Sunday. Decent little slate in front of
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us here, DJ, my man, what's going on? How you doing
1:07
this week? Pretty good? More playing slap dick quarterbacks and skinny stacks and
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having good weeks. Literally, I've had three really good weeks this year,
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and every time it's been a slap dick quarterback, skinny stack. Who's got
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me there? So I think I have dialed in my process only slap dick
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quarterbacks for me. Yeah. Yeah. It's been working out for you though,
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so it's good to stick with as the season goes on. Sometimes that's
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the best way, and we've been getting there with guys like Desmond Ritter and
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Jordan Love and case Keatum, and regardless of how things are shaken out,
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we're going to talk through this slate and get to all that before we get
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into I just want to say what's up. Some guys go collect first in
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shout out to you. Appreciate that. Billy, though, wants to know
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ranchwater or another week coming right at you, another week of boring old cold
1:45
brew coffee. I've heard some people say, hey, you know that's the
1:48
full serving size of cold brew you're drinking there when you're as big as me.
1:52
This is drink size, Bud. This is just a small little sample
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of how much coffee I drink. And then Jerry Matt, always in here
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trying to work on his games, says, Heinekey slap incoming this week?
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What do we think it's gonna be him this week? So no Ritter on
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the table this week, even though they are back at home and that's where
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he plays better. They're going with Heineke crazy. I mean, just looking
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at that total right there. Every time I see the Colts, this is
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just something wrong with my brain. I always think sneaky shootout. I think
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that every time I see the Colts symbol, yeah, we're gonna get there.
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I mean that I'm interested to see where you go with this slate on
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some of these games. There's as I was going through it on pre show,
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there was two or three spots where I was interested in breaking it all
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down again, just to let you guys know, if you want to go
2:30
over and get involved at ship at nation dot com, where we'll have all
2:34
the updates throughout the week as the week goes on, projections, ownership,
2:38
the slate plans, the player pulls all the full breakdowns. You can use
2:40
promo code DJEN seventy five D E G E N seventy five gets you ten
2:45
percent off. Basically, if you just want to try for a month,
2:47
you get it around sixty two bucks. It works out to do about two
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dollars a day. You get into the discord, you get all the other
2:53
sports we're covering right now, NBA, PGA is coming back soon, we
2:57
got MMA, NHL, MLB's off break right now. But then of course
3:00
you get the education courses as always, and if you do just want to
3:04
sign up here free, no credit card information required, just get our NFL
3:07
DFS showdown mini course. You can just put your email in there, click
3:10
sign up and they'll send it out to you right away. Dj I'm gonna
3:14
let you talk about your site here for a little bit. I know you
3:15
got some new stuff going on here, djen seventy five dot com. If
3:19
you guys haven't checked it out, I'll let you take over from there.
3:21
Yeah, I mean, it's the best to me, this is the best
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time a year to sign up. We've got like if no one plays college
3:27
football DFS except the sweatiest tryhards, and shame on you for not trying it.
3:30
With all these bowls and all the weird news, it's a great time
3:32
to get in there. It's one of the few sports that you can really
3:35
have an edge simply just by the people you play, like just literally pick
3:38
some plays, which is not even on brand for me. A great time
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for NFL with the season wrapping up and teams shutting it down, having to
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be on top of injury news, playoffs rolling around, and of course PGA
3:49
is coming back and you will never meet a sweatier tryhard than me at PGA
3:52
DFS Tournament of Champions comes back. I'm gonna treat it like the fucking Masters
3:54
because I'm so excited for golf. Yeah, golf's gonna be awesome. Can't
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wait to get back to. If you guys want to try out dijit at
4:00
seventy five dot com. A yeah, use my code. I always forget
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to fucking say it. Use the code. Is it? Is it?
4:08
Tampo? Ship it's what's is it? Ship it right? Ship it?
4:10
Ship it is the code. That's how fucking good I am at knowing stuff.
4:13
There you go. Not a good salesman. I'm just good at talking
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shit. We all have our skills. Yeah, that's right. And then
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we've got I think the projections aren't loaded yet, but we can use this
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to go game by game. Both of us obviously have partnerships with the solver.
4:25
If you guys are looking to get an optimizer, the best way to
4:27
do it pair both of our sites together, go over and get the solver
4:30
from one or the other, doesn't matter, and then you can get it
4:31
auto SYNCD up for all of our projections together. So lots of good stuff
4:35
there, collaborations incoming, all of that stuff there. Let's start it off.
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Do you have anything you want to talk about from last week before we
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hop into the nine games, we've been going ten to twelve gamers, so
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we do have like a game worth of option here that we could talk about
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something from last week, you know, I like, just my biggest takeaway
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because we were talking about this before we went on the air, is how
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like you know people, I think most people would have agreed that we're pretty
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advanced players. We've been doing this a long time. We play high limits,
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we risk a lot of money at this, but like we're still always
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learning and trying to get better. And it's just the biggest breakthrough I've had
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this year is how much I enjoy skinny stacking cheap quarterbacks and then going and
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getting these really expensive pieces and playing them together where you know, like a
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lot of people played McCaffrey, a lot of people played Karen Williams, more
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people than I thought played Cooper Cup, but hardly anybody played all three of
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those guys together, right. And I was able to get all three of
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those guys together in a lineup, and in that afternoon I was shooting up.
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I'm telling you, if McLaurin doesn't get tackled at the fucking one yard
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line, I'm pretty sure I would have got top five in the Wildcat still
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finished like top twenty, but like it was that close to being there simply
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just because I had chalky pieces, but I had them together, whereas not
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everybody had that. And it's just like thinking through your lineup and how you're
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constructing it different is so much more important than I've got this three thousand dollars
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sleeper guy that could go off. Yeah, look at I've talked about this
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forever. You talked about the greatest sport coming back in golf, where it's
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like we always talk about, Oh, I got the diamond in the rough
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this week. This amateur's getting his start. He's gonna come through. When
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he top twenties, I'm gonna ship everything. It's like, well, you
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still got to get the other five spots, right, So I hope you're
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investing ten to fifteen percent of your one hundred plus lineup portfolio into this player
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because if he comes through, you're gonna want to have outs to get to
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the top. And you just said it here though, you'll make it make
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sense. We talk about learning all the time. The more you learn,
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the more you earn. You got to put the time in to figure this
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stuff out, And you mentioned it like when you have Kieran Williams and Cup,
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a lot of people think, well, how can you roll that out
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there without Stafford? There's no way that can get there without Stafford. They'll
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say, but wait, Stafford's not gonna run the ball a bunch. It's
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not necessary, it's not necess it's not necessarily you're gona see him throw three
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or four touchdowns those guys. What if Kieran Williams runs into gets a bunch
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of checkdowns that he racks up, and then it's just one touchdown, ten
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catches for eighty yards, not even the bonus for Cup that still adds up.
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It doesn't necessarily mean that you need Stafford. So what if case Keenum
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at four K could match Matt Stafford. You put them with Noah Brown,
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cut it off. It's nine K for a quarterback one and a wide receiver
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one with a bunch of injury stuff going on there, and it allows you
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to fit CMC still into that mix. It allows you to still get a
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guy like Terry McLaurin on the run back, so on and so forth.
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You've now got yourself a nice lineup that even in the highest it doesn't matter
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even in the largest fields or the highest stakes, where you can get away
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with even more mistakes. It actually can work in both because you're packing in
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a ton of sealing options into those lineups. So I really like that call
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that you brought up. I definitely think that's key. And then Ryan says,
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here and I'll get you to answer this one quick. Do you change
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your process throughout the year. If not, what makes you skew away from
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that process? I think within a given year, Ryan, it can be
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a little dangerous to overreact to a ten fifteen week sample like this is why
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I always tell people at NFL, you literally probably need about three years of
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real data on your results to kind of know what best fits for you.
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Right. So I've been doing this long enough in NFL that I don't usually
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overreact, but I will, you know, I will tinker with stuff and
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see what I like, and then I will, you know, I will
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shift it. But I'll never like reinvent my process because I have a bad
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six or seven week run. But I will look and see is there anything
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I could be doing different and something that I've really focused on more this year
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just because I've found out what's working for me. I haven't changed how I
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select my player pool the contest I'm playing, but I have tweaked how I
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construct my rosters. And I have found from me that I really enjoyed these
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skinny, stacked, cheap quarterbacks and allowing me to get multiple pay up options
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and simply constructing my roster different has been something that I've tweaked in my process
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this year. Yeah, and we always talk about this. I mean,
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obviously we've talked on both our sites plenty and we're not going to talk too
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much more, but just to say, obviously we talk a lot about building
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your own process, being able to know and recognize that where you can do
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it. But we have this course over at ship a Nation that Hoop and
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I record. It's four hours. There's members in the chat right now that
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I know have taken it. We'll be able to say hopefully good things about
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it. But part of the process conversation is everybody says trust the process,
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but most people don't even have one, and most content providers don't teach you
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how to create one of your own. So we talk a lot about this
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with creating your own process, goals and mindset, bank roll, management,
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contest selection, dj and I know you're preaching both of these all the time.
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Pretty much every single stream that you do coincides really well with what we're
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doing over at ship a Nation. But to add on to that, one
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thing I talk about in the course, and just to answer Ryan's question,
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is I talk about trust the progress. Everyone says trust the process. We've
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heard that a million times. If you have a process, great, if
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you don't get onto a site or get somewhere that they can help you create
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one of your own. But once you have something set up, it's not
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going to be your final process. That's what Djon just said. We're working
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on this over time as we go on, but you need to trust the
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progress. If you're sucking every week and not having any type of outcoming,
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you're seeing mistakes made, and you're watching review shows and seeing that you're way
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offline from what some of the success were of the more successful players. Not
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just the winning lineup because that can be crazy some weeks, but we go
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through some of these successful players and what they're doing. If you're having if
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you're way off of all that, that's where you should be trying to work
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on tweaking your process. If you're having progress, you're like, well,
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I came sixth, but I didn't win, so I must not be doing
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anything right. You literally came sixth. It's the difference of five spots.
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The first You do need luck and some variants to go in your favor down
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the stretch of these large field tournaments, especially any tournament for that matter.
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But that is something that I would say as well, you really want to
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look after it from that angle. Anything else you want to add, my
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friend, If not, we can get into the first game. We go
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right inside the dome early on here, Indian Atlanta is gonna kick off this
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slate nine games. Yeah, one more thing. If Terry McLaurin just sticks
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his fucking arm out, I win forty five thousand more dollars this week.
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So like it's literally like that much of a difference. Just don't go down
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at the one dickhead, and like that's the difference. He was a good
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play, It was a good runback. He correlated nicely with Cupp and Karen
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Williams. And to look, I had a solid week, but I could
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have had a massive week. If a guy just sticks his arm out,
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that's how then the margins can be and you can't overreact to. Man,
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I don't ever win them real big brass as well. I mean literally it
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can be that. It can literally be a half a yard difference. Yeah,
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and some of the members are taking it like this and to your point
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on Arry mclaur and just to say one more thing, last week the T
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Higgins touchdown, catch and grab and then this arms swing around. Yeah,
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like again, I know if you wish you could get that half the time
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for everybody. We need when we need it, and you don't want it
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when it's again. But man, just overall talking NFL and being a fan
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of the game, what an incredible play, not just the catch and the
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swing, the arm and all just the combined piece of it all. I
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mean that literally made Odell Beckham's career a play like that. T Higgins had
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just already been an incredible start to him when he's healthy and in there.
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That was an awesome catch. Yeah. I mean Saturday was such a fun
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slate because with that early game I was telling everybody, this is a great
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chance to get leverage pieces. In the first game, you got these high
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leverage guys like Jordan Addison and T Higgins and nobody's gonna play, and if
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you can hit them in the early game, you can have the rest of
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the slate by the nuts and we'll have those late swap options. And it
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literally worked out exactly like that, where all the high leverage pieces hit in
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the early game and really give you a leg up on the rest of the
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day if you had the stones to play them. Yeah, I agree,
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and go collect makes a good point too. Even when Terry finally goes off,
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he still finds a way to cost some of us. Funny true yourself
11:48
included there. I will go to this first game in a second. I
11:50
will say this too, because we're getting late in the season and it's been
11:54
a season of SIMS conversations. I still think a lot of people are overthinking
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at least parts this. I think this could be affecting ownership some and some
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of the swings that we're seeing in that because more people are trusting that a
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lot of sites so using older strategies, not maybe adapting for it from that
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angle. But when you say so many people using SIMS now, the data
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is at least out there from a lot of places that actually not many people
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have converted to these SIMS, not just because they're extremely expensive, but because
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they don't know what to do with them. So even if they are adding
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them, it might be for like a small period of time realizing they have
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no clue how to use them, and then backing away from that. There
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could be more on that in the future, but just for now, I
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don't think you will. I think again, whether you're brand new, intermedia,
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advanced, whatever, focus on what you've got set up right now,
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tweak that, and then see how your progress looks on paper. DJN go
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back to you here, Indy and Atlanta, go ahead. I'm gonna just
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get one thing in on the SIMS. SIMS. The kind of people that
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are signing up for SIMS, I would say about eighty to ninety percent of
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them are freshmen in college and they're trying to go do PhD work. They're
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not ready for it. So even when they try to use it, they
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think it's going to be this magical cure all and they're not ready for that
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level. And the like, I'm just I'm not worried about SIMS yet.
13:01
I'm not even close to worried about SIMS. So, you know, maybe
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for a few top players, yeah, you know, the PhD players,
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they're probably doing even better with the SIMS. I have no doubt that these
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some of these top players are doing better because of SIMS. But like for
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that, you know, for the regular players that are trying to just jump
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to the front of the line without having a process by using SIMS, like
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you're not that guy, Pal, You're not that guy, and I'm not
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fucking worried about you. Well, yeah, because there's there's even gonna be
13:24
intermediate to advanced type players that still aren't using them right or figuring them out
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correctly or knowing how to use them just yet. So that's gonna take time.
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But the players that are already crushing and were crushing using SIMS, they
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still have the same stuff. They still are working in tweaking their sims for
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it. It's not like they got this new stuff themselves. It's other people
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that are just thinking, like you said, I love that analogy of like
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they're skipping the line thinking that because you pay one hundred and ninety nine bucks
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extra or one to eighty a month, you get this free pass to free
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money that that's just not how it works. And there's a lot of things
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that go into them. The inputs you put into them, but also contest
13:56
For contest sims, it's all about the field that you create, and there's
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certain sites out there working very hard and probably doing great jobs and putting in
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a good effort to create these fields. But then when they get that wrong,
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that can throw a lot of stuff off as well. So again too
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early for all this, but we'll get into this. They would be so
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much better taking that one hundred and eighty dollars put in the putting it into
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lineups every week and learning from the school of hard knocks and seeing what works
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and what doesn't work. Then they would paying for this. I think this
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magical cure all of SIMS. But you know what, maybe I'm just old
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school. It's fine. Like again, we'll see where it continues to go.
14:28
And I'm not against them. I'm just saying I agree with everything you
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said about where people are overrating them, thinking that everybody has them, which
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isn't even true, and then on top of it, thinking that everyone that
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has them just gets this free pass or automatically knows how to do everything with
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them. There's just so many other factors that go into it. Knowing what
14:43
they are and how to use them. So that's kind of the angle that
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I would take it from. Okay, we've done enough, we're getting into
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the slate. We got nine games. I'll let you kick this one off.
14:50
It is going to be Heinikey. It was announced today, so some
14:54
of the stuff out there will still show Ritter when the projections pop in.
14:58
Obviously we got them both right here. Forty eight hundred bucks for Heinike.
15:01
We get a again with This is going to be a suffering thing to say,
15:05
but you know, we get a dream spot for Jean Robinson who did
15:09
not come through for people last week. You know, we've seen the stats
15:13
on London and Pitts at home they've been better, but that was with Ritters.
15:16
So now it's Heinike. And then from a defense perspective, I actually
15:20
think Atlanta d could be in play here as well. Thirty three hundred,
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So give me your thoughts on Atlanta, Indiana Indianapolis. First thoughts on this
15:26
game. Forty four point total early on in the Dome in Atlanta. I
15:31
you know, I always think sneaky shootout, and then anytime I see the
15:35
Colts, I say sneaky shootout. So when I see both of them,
15:37
does that mean it's an automatic shootout. I gotta tell you just off the
15:39
top, Taylor, Heineke can throw a forward pass better than Desmond Ritter can
15:43
that, I promise you, Okay, And he and Drake London is actually
15:46
kind of like a good receiver now with Bijon with Pitts at home against the
15:52
Colts that we're sure is going to push him. I could just I'm looking
15:54
and seeing a lot of good games on this slate. But if I'm doing
15:56
that, I only play slaptick quarterbacks with a skinny stack. How am I
16:00
not giving strong consideration to a Heineke London stack here? Yeah? I agree?
16:04
And you said it best there, Like he said, you think you
16:06
could throw it even better than like I said, at forty eight hundred bucks,
16:08
pretty easy to load up. It's only fifty one hundred for Drake London.
16:11
I mean, you put this stack in, you still have five point
16:14
seven k left on average, and you still get to put a cheap d
16:17
in there, probably a cheaper tight end all that you can really start to
16:21
build up. And again, like you said earlier, I guess people don't.
16:22
I mean, maybe this is the new thing or the opposite thing or
16:26
whatever. It might be maybe people are overstacking or stacking too much in some
16:29
cases, but you are allowed to just play these two guys and stop now.
16:32
If you want to put an indie guy in, I get that too,
16:33
and hope for the back and forth. But there's a world, a
16:37
very real world, where just these two get there. And to your point,
16:38
you talked about your wildcat close call the winning lineup last week. We
16:42
did the review on Monday of Neil prow winning that tournament was a Joe Flacco,
16:48
Amari Cooper and Joku. Now it was a triple stack, but there
16:51
was no run back. It's on a perceived poor team, like a bad
16:55
team in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns, even though the record is still
16:57
pretty solid and Flaco looks awesome coming off the couch these last couple of weeks.
17:00
And Djoku is the second coming of Gronkowski or whoever you want to give
17:04
that label or title to. But either way, like you said, just
17:07
people still I think you have to do all this stuff. There's no way
17:11
you could just play this and get there. But there is a way.
17:12
So you've talked about it, you've shown it. Anything else you want anything
17:15
from the indie side you're super high on here. I mean, what's up
17:18
with all these injuries? I'm seeing Moss, Taylor, and Pittman all with
17:22
Q tags, so we do have any news on them because you know,
17:25
I always like Taylor or Moss when the other one's out, not necessarily when
17:27
they're together. And then Pittman is kind of like, I mean that dude's
17:30
a usage monster. Yeah, he has been. I don't know exactly what
17:33
we're gonna see. If anyone has more that could throw it out in there
17:36
and we could circle back to it. The latest on Pittman is nothing updated.
17:41
Obviously. All they want to talk about is the suspension because that nasty
17:45
hit that he took or whatever. But don't see much else there. He
17:48
would be at least somewhat interesting though, because seventy four hundred. This is
17:51
a spot where we talk about an NBA DFS all the time where everyone's like,
17:53
what automatically value means super cheap. But lately we've seen some of these
17:57
guys that are probably like nine K wide receiver ones the way their volume is
18:02
actually turning out, or seven K when they're priced at five K, eight
18:06
K when they're priced at seven K ET cetera. Where you can still get
18:07
a ton of volume out of them and they can actually be a value at
18:11
their price tag, even though their price is kind of mid range to upper
18:15
end. So that's why I went with Cooper Cup last week. I was
18:18
like, Cooper Cup, if he's going to get back to being the old
18:19
Cooper Cup, he's an eighty eight hundred dollars plus receiver and I'm getting him
18:22
met. I believe he was seventy six hundred last week. It just seemed
18:26
like too good of a value if he's getting back healthy and the Rams are
18:29
back to being a functional offense. Yeah, set seventy eight hundred, and
18:32
Nikool was seventy three hundred, and then Kieran Williams was seventy five hundred.
18:36
That Kieran Williams is even better example, I think too. Like again,
18:38
he had the ownership, but the value was that he was underpriced, Like
18:42
you just knew for what the use that she'd been getting, the workload,
18:45
the spot everything. That's why a lot of people played seventy five to eighty
18:48
percent of him. Some of the better players in the world that had one
18:52
hundred plus lineup still were just heavy on him. They said, that's gonna
18:55
be their stand. They'll get overweight on him. That's speaking to say that
18:57
he is actually a ball you even though his price is seventy five hundred dollars,
19:03
that can still be value. And I kind of think that's the same
19:04
take here within this game. Let's move on, Let's go to Green Bay,
19:08
Carolina. Here, someone said earlier in the chat about our guy,
19:11
Mayo said, is it gonna be another week where Mayo TALKSI and to Bryce
19:15
Young, So talk to me about this one. I'm curious where your takes
19:18
are within this game because it's a lower total thirty six and a half.
19:22
But as we've talked all season, that's not necessarily a thing when it comes
19:26
to fantasy score, and we care about the fantasy points, not the game
19:30
points or the total points of the game. Sometimes they go together and correlate
19:33
well and oftentimes, but in this case, some of these cheaper plays when
19:37
nobody in this game is more expensive, nobody in play in this game is
19:41
more expensive than Jordan Love at sixty five hundred, you can get lots of
19:45
action within this spot. What's your thoughts in this game? I mean,
19:48
these are the kind of games I like to come in and usually grab a
19:51
one off piece, right, Like, in these games, even if like
19:53
let's say the score is what Vegas says and it's basically twenty one to sixteen,
19:56
right, that's not exactly lighten up the scoreboard fantas wise, But in
20:00
a twenty one sixteen game, a guy can still easily score like twenty five
20:03
thirty fantasy points and be part of an optimal lineup. And so, like,
20:07
you know, to me, I think the more obvious idea is probably
20:10
to look at Green Bay. You know, Aaron Jones, I guess we
20:14
got to see what happened with Jayden Reid if he's gonna be okay, But
20:15
what you know, a guy like that, I think there's some really nice
20:18
one off pieces playing against Swiss cheese Panthers defense. Yeah, I'm just trying
20:22
to see that too. Hurt his toe or whatever. We'll go back to
20:26
that one. But just to have note here that Chap mentioned it too,
20:27
So a feeling back down to best Buy pricing fifty nine hundred bucks. Yeah,
20:33
seven targets a week, like that's a potential one off if you could
20:36
see him be worth more again. At some point talked about Hubbard last week
20:41
twenty bus So that was one thing. I will say this, and I'm
20:42
not sure if you have a take on this one to kind of correlate like
20:45
tying last week into this week. In doing the review show yesterday, a
20:48
lot of the Sharper players had a bunch of Chuba Hubbard in their lineups,
20:53
and I know he was like opposite side of Bijon and that game potential and
20:57
all that, But did you have a take on Hubbard at all from last
21:00
week and then leading into this week he has I guess he'd been getting twenty
21:03
five, twenty three carries, touchdowns, red zone work, all that stuff,
21:08
so I could see it from that angle, but still just fifty seven
21:11
hundred and now goes up against Green Bay, which has been a pretty good
21:14
matchup. Yeah, I mean, like if that usage, that seems really
21:18
nice. But I don't fall in love with running backs rushing attempts right Like
21:21
it's just to me, the only rushing attempts I truly care about a lot
21:25
are goal lines. With my running backs, I want guys who are going
21:26
to be getting those targets out of the backfield, And like that's what I
21:30
was looking at. You a Hubbard last week, but then when I saw
21:33
he had had zero and two targets in the past two games, it really
21:36
makes me wonder what is his upside right when you take away him not being
21:38
highly involved in the passing game and not getting a ton of goal line carries
21:42
mainly just because they're never fucking down there. It really just kind of killed
21:45
my interest in him, although I was strongly considering him. But those are
21:48
the two things I like for running backs, targets and goal line carries.
21:52
Yeah, and I guess that's I mean, people were probably taking it based
21:55
on those twenty two and twenty three carries. But to your point, is
21:56
I like he even came through, So it's just one of those things.
22:00
But I definitely think that's interesting. Nick. We'll get your question there in
22:03
a second. I do like that one, but let's finish out this game
22:04
first. Interestingly enough, so Aaron Jones opposite side. Pretty much any matchup
22:10
anybody, sorry, matching up with Carolina has been in a good spot this
22:12
season. I was just trying to see his finish the last game here.
22:15
I'll pull up the log. Looks like you at nine pretty solid, but
22:18
he got but those four targets out of the backfield. That's what interests me
22:21
way more than the thirteen rushing attempts. Yeah, so you got it there.
22:23
You're seeing on your side too, So fifty yards fifty three yards on
22:26
the ground or whatever I wonder too. Like last week this was the other
22:30
thing. So you know, people keep bringing it up. But Jordan Love
22:33
is now sixty five hundred. It's a little bit more than last week at
22:36
sixty two hundred. But I don't know if you've seen this on the season.
22:37
I rattled off the stat yesterday, but it's one, two, three,
22:41
four, five, six, seven eight. Nine of the weeks he's
22:45
played this season, he's been over eighteen DraftKings points, and five of six
22:51
of them over twenty and five of those six are over twenty one. So
22:55
I mean the guy does put up Fantasy points regardless. He has some stacking
22:59
options with him. Could you have any interest in him here within this game?
23:02
I'll tell you what. If Watson and Reader out, it makes me
23:06
a lot more interested in Jordan Love because I think you're basically going to see
23:08
Wis and Dobbs and Craft be the really only three viable targets that he would
23:12
have right that would get enough usage to consider form my lineups. So if
23:17
Reid and Watson are out and I get that condensed usage to the pass catchers,
23:22
I would be interested in Love. Yeah, I think that's something there.
23:25
And then two, I saw one more thing that I like. Yeah,
23:26
this one. Our guy Byron says Panthers could be interesting against the story
23:30
Joe Berry deal like they're twenty four hundred if they are missing pieces. There
23:34
is two ways to look at it. The way you just said, I'm
23:37
with you when I get it even more condensed target Tree, and I can
23:40
take Yeah, he's sixty five hundred for Jordan Love, but he's put up
23:42
those numbers. Eighteen is a pretty fair floor for what we've seen, like
23:45
an average, I should say the floor has been lower, but still you
23:48
can then get him with cheaper guys to balance it out and that lower ownership
23:52
and keep that price cheap on the overall stack. That's where you start to
23:55
see in our stack rankings at shippin Nation, you get those value stacks.
23:59
That's one where I could see it, But you can also look at it
24:00
from the other side of this page and say, yeah, he's gonna be
24:03
missing some dudes. If that's the case, we'll see how the injuries shake
24:06
out by the end of the week. Sometimes it is fine just to stack
24:08
up that defense again against them if you're not gonna get any other pieces.
24:11
Or maybe it's a way if Hubbard picks up steam because of the usage lately,
24:15
it's a way to balance that out. Some of not as many people
24:18
are on Carolina. There's lots of different ways that we can look at it.
24:21
Cleveland Houston coming up next. But before we go to that one,
24:23
I want to get to next question here quick. Here's one for you.
24:26
Djenny says, how much weight do you put into teams with a playoff run
24:30
still versus teams with nothing left to play for? Does this change the games
24:33
you focus on? So yeah, not really. I would say maybe for
24:37
like an old wide receiver, an old running back, maybe they want to
24:40
leave a little bit, you know, not take all the tread off those
24:42
tires. But by and large, all these guys in these games are still
24:45
playing for contracts. They're still playing to make a roster next year. These
24:48
are professionals who do this for a living and they've got a lot to play
24:51
for. So the whole motivation thing as far as players go, I'm not
24:55
worried about it. The only way I'd be worried about it is if the
24:57
coaches want to nerve a couple play because they realized there's not a lot left
25:02
to play for. But from the players side, not worried at all.
25:04
And I think a lot of these coaches are going to continue to even keep
25:07
their guys out there because you know, they got to keep their fucking jobs.
25:10
And seven and ten's a lot better than five and twelve. Yeah,
25:14
I agree on that. And that's the other angle to it too. You
25:15
start to see like these teams, whether it's the owners getting involved, the
25:18
gms, whatever it might be, to say, hey, let's start this
25:21
guy instead, and you know, maybe they're trying to tank now a little
25:23
bit. The problem is you can't force that guy to actually tank. I
25:26
mean people joke around about it, like money under the table and stuff,
25:30
but in all reality, the point is they're going out fighting for their future
25:33
within this league, so they're gonna go out and try and play to win
25:36
as well. And I know some people were saying that about Cincy last week,
25:38
like why since even trying to win this game down the stretch, Like
25:41
they're not going to just stop like he has to still go out and get
25:44
it in there. So it's hard to know, but I do think some
25:47
of the stuff you talked about, like people can pull some guys. I
25:48
know last week people were talking about with what was it Gibson, Antonio Gibson
25:52
and somebody else for Washington saw a little bit of that. We see some
25:56
teams where, like you said, they'll start trying out some rookie he's more
26:00
as or some you know, some second year stuff like that to give them
26:03
a little bit more opportunity just to see what they've got. Well maybe trying
26:06
to tank. They can get away with it because they, oh, well
26:07
we got to see what he's got too, so let's give it a shot.
26:11
So something to think about. But I think about it pretty much identical
26:14
to you. Let's move on, Let's go to Houston Cleveland here, and
26:18
are we still wacko for Flacco or what are you doing? This guy's been
26:21
incredible since he's been back. Elijah Moore still cheap Amari Cooper to your original
26:26
point or might like I guess my point, but you really sealed it with
26:27
the Amari Cooper thoughts and you said it for Cooper cup story I'm saying it
26:32
for Amari Cooper is like, again, you're getting a wide receiver one with
26:36
a quarterback that's shown some ability here and now he's only sixty He's still only
26:40
sixty four hundred and Joku fifty three hundred. Bit of a price bump,
26:44
And then of course we'll get all the guys on the other side. If
26:45
there's any love on the Houston side, what are you doing here within this
26:48
game? First of all, the incredible thing about Joe Flacco is not even
26:52
how good he's been, but how much he has increased the value of the
26:55
pass catchers for Cleveland. Right, He's made them like such better options to
26:59
play in your DFS lineups, Cooper and Najoku specifically. And here's what I
27:03
would say, I'm pretty sure c J. Stroud is going to be back
27:04
this week, right. He was out last week with the concussion. They
27:07
almost always miss a week and they're almost always back the second week. They're
27:11
at home, they're in the dome. We know that CJ. Stroud when
27:14
he's healthy, they have a very good offense. And if you think that
27:18
we're gonna see Houston get to their normal, you know, four hundred yards
27:21
of offense twenty four to twenty eight points that we've kind of come to expect
27:23
from them. How do you not think Joe Flacco is going to be passing
27:26
that ball around forty times this game and just peppering Cooper and Nadjoku with targets.
27:32
This just seems like a perfect scoring environment to me. Yeah, it's
27:34
been good, and you know, in Houston's kind of decid'd rather that than
27:37
even the games that he's been having. In good games, some of them
27:41
have been at home in the Dog Pound, and now you're getting to go
27:42
to Houston to have this spot. I don't hate that. It's still very
27:47
affordable because of Flaco's price point at fifty five hundred. Go to the other
27:49
side with the Murray, Cooper and Joku, stack those guys all up.
27:53
Cleveland defense could still be a thing here thirty four hundred. That is a
27:56
very good defense, regardless of who comes back for Houston. So I don't
28:00
hate bringing that up, Jerome Ford, if you wanted to get different.
28:03
If the Flacco side does get super popular, I don't hate it. It
28:07
isn't the worst matchup on the ground going against Houston, but I know we
28:10
saw hunting there last week too, So lots of different ways that you can
28:14
go about this spot. Metchi was a guy that I know some people were
28:17
trying to make work last week. He did nothing. I think he got.
28:21
Uh let me see if I can. I tried to make Hutchinson work.
28:23
Yeah, that was fine too. I thought, Hey, he got
28:26
he got like I mean, he got the targets like I mean, he
28:27
had a coup, He had some red zone targets. Just didn't get there.
28:30
Man, two different times he was open for a touchdown. What the
28:33
hell is he? I want to I want to see what he did.
28:34
I want to see how many targets he got. I don't even see him
28:37
on it. No else fails. We go this way, I guess.
28:40
Let's see. So this was week fifteen, he had three targets. Yeah,
28:45
well I hey, but you know what, you can't take that five
28:48
yard rush away from me. That those are my point five He got the
28:51
five, Yeah, he got the five rushers. The Let me see here,
28:53
what was the other one we were just talking about? Was Machi?
28:56
Did you say MATCHI yeah, Matchie. I just was curious he got he
28:57
got one target for d so one point one canton. That's double Hutchinson and
29:03
he's more than double Hutchinson. Just a huge week for those two guys.
29:07
But hey, we've seen this before. You go to the next week and
29:08
it ends up being the spot. So either way, they're both three k.
29:12
I'm not saying to go crazy on them, but if there's other guys
29:15
you can use in the spot, that's fine. I'm gonna stick to the
29:18
Moors, the Coopers, the n Joku's, the guys on the Houston side
29:21
are are fine as well. But for me, not much else here within
29:23
this one. Let's go to Detroit, Minnesota. I think this is the
29:26
biggest total we've seen so far. There's gonna be a bigger one to end
29:30
the slate, but for this one here, forty seven right now is what
29:34
we're looking at. I think it's gonna be Mullins again, right It's Mullins
29:37
and Golf. Yeah, I mean that's my understanding. And Nick Mullins was
29:42
pretty solid, pretty solid right like he was. He can throw the forward
29:47
pass. I think that's what we need to What I took away from that
29:48
game and what was crazy is it wasn't even Justin Jefferson who was eating up
29:52
all the usage. He spread it around quite nicely, and it was good
29:55
to see Justin Jefferson make it through a full game still look explosive, and
29:59
I think even at eighty one hundred dollars, which seems like an incredible value
30:02
for him being at home against the Lions who just love to give up way
30:04
too many points, I think you're gonna see Justin Jefferson like probably under twenty
30:08
percent this week, eighty one hundred dollars in a high scoring game with a
30:12
quarterback who can actually throw a forward pass. I think Justin Jefferson could be
30:15
like my Cooper Cup was last week, just a guy like I just have
30:18
a fucking feeling. Yeah, this is the hard part too, right,
30:21
because they're one hundred bucks apart obviously a monra and think about Goff too.
30:25
People make fun of him and all these other things. But Detroit has still
30:26
been playing very good football, mind you. I think some of this is
30:30
to do with their strength of schedule, but still going inside, staying within,
30:33
Like again, I think I think there's a static. I don't think
30:36
Goff plays outside anymore for the rest of the year, between all the games
30:40
that he's got our Dome games on the road, Dome games at home,
30:42
but you could definitely see a bit of a back and forth here. Do
30:45
you have any take on running back like the Ty Chandler looked really good last
30:49
week, Jamior Gibbs. I know they're not the best fantasy matchups on paper.
30:53
Later in the year we have better DVP rankings. We see all that
30:56
stuff, but we see people beat those up all the time. Look at
30:59
Kenneth wat the third last night, run all over Philly when that's not really
31:03
what happens usually. It was no problem for him last night, so it
31:06
can always change up game to game. Any thoughts on Chandler, Gibbs,
31:08
so Montgomery, any of these running backs in this spot on that three game
31:11
Saturday, say, Chandler was one of my favorite plays because a lot of
31:15
times we see these backup running backs move to the starting role and like we
31:18
quickly realized, like, you're not that guy, pal, Like you know,
31:21
like you're a second, you're the second. You're the backup for a
31:22
reason. But I've always thought Ty Chandler was a real talent. I was
31:26
like, this guy is probably a better player than Alexander Madison, and he's
31:30
going to take this role and run with it. He's not a guy who's
31:32
just getting an opportunities, a guy who's getting an opportunity and is actually a
31:36
good player, right, And I love him. And if Madison's out again
31:38
at fifty six hundred, you best believe I'm playing ty Chandler. He just
31:41
highly involved in the game plan and more than anything, he's good at American
31:45
football. I agree and Ross said earlier about Jordan Love and Aaron Jones for
31:51
the Millie to copy the Baker Mayfield and Rashad White build from last week.
31:56
Realistically, I think this could be a spot you could go with Mullins and
32:00
ty Chandler and pick up twenty plus points from both of them, and they're
32:04
both at really fair prices fifty six hundred and fifty three hundred. You can
32:07
get there on that type of mini stack that just not many people are going
32:10
to get to, and then it's up to you what you want to run
32:13
back. On the other side, we could also see a little bit of
32:15
a battle of the tight ends, but they're both both expensive. Hawkinson and
32:19
Laporta two guys that both project super well. Are that mid upper range any
32:23
take there before we move on to this next game. I mean I love
32:25
Laporta. He's so good at like, he is so good like he is
32:29
a big talent. I think he's going to end up being like a top
32:31
five tight end for the next decade. Problem is is like the Lions,
32:35
just they got a lot of mouths to feed, right, Gibbs and Montgomery
32:37
are going to get theirs. Amen, Ral is going to get his that
32:40
pluth Threa of Slaptick wide receivers they have, Raymond and Reynolds and and Jamison
32:45
are all going to get at a little nibble of the pie. And like
32:47
at some point, it's like man Laporta, everybody saw what a monster game
32:51
he had last week, But don't let it get twisted. He only had
32:53
five catches, right, and for for six thousand dollars, you kind of
32:57
want your tie our sixty four hundred dollars. You want your tie in to
33:00
get more than six targets. Yeah, the three tds comes in handy when
33:04
it's on five catches, right, six targets. Five to three of the
33:07
five catches were for touchdowns. So definitely, well, I guess this is
33:10
I'll say this two though, again not expecting that nor is anybody out there.
33:14
You're not but again not necessarily needing that on the next time around,
33:17
so you can still get their different ways. But I'm with you, I
33:20
want to see a little bit more volume. And then somebody said Hawk is
33:22
better. It was Jerry says Hawk is better than Laporta and cheaper. Hawk
33:25
Revenge Game two. Don't forget Hawk Revenge game, big time narrative going back.
33:30
I may just run one more thing by it. This is one of
33:31
those games where you could run a Minnesota stacked and then unbelievably not have a
33:36
Lions run back right, because there is a chance the Lions could score twenty
33:39
eight points and none of their guys could have a monster game because they spread
33:43
it around so much. Gibbs gets a touchdown, Montgomery gets a touchdown,
33:45
Amenrod gets a touchdown, and they you know, Laporta gets seven catches for
33:49
sixty years. They all have very nice, solid games, but none of
33:52
them go for thirty or thirty five points. And you can easily survive that
33:54
because they spread it around so much. And that's going to push Minnesota to
33:58
maybe go get twenty one twenty for twenty eight points and have a big game,
34:01
and you can just do it about just stacking the Minnesota side and not
34:05
the Detroit side. Yeah, one hundred percent agree. Again, we'll have
34:08
to wait on the Madison news. I think I'm not sure what the latest
34:10
update is on him. Maybe I could just pull it here quickly just to
34:14
see what the early morning stuff is. But I want, I hope that
34:16
slap dicks out, so do. I just want to had to handle of
34:20
missing another practice. That's all this last, so Madison to return to practice.
34:24
This is yesterday. Ty Chandler will see featured role, so we'll see
34:29
how it actually shakes out by the end of the week. But I really
34:30
like the spot for ty Chandler, and I think your point was valid,
34:34
and like I said, you could even just go with those top two.
34:37
But the interesting note to this point would be is if you run like what
34:39
I've got on the screen here, Mullins Chandler a Manra, you know,
34:45
for a hundred bucks lest you could triple stack, which is what most people
34:47
a Mulleins. So I got no problem just running it out the two to
34:52
one with the guy that's a hundred bucks more than who most would end up
34:54
with in their lineup. There's just another unique way is Jefferson any good ownership
35:00
am I just? Am I being too hopeful by saying he's going to be
35:01
under twenty percent this week? Are people going to realize, wait, justin
35:05
Jefferson's the best player in the NFL, and he's eighty one hundred dollars at
35:07
home against the Lions. The matchup is pretty good. I don't know how
35:10
it's actually going to shake out, but I think people are going to be
35:14
comfortable with it. I don't think people care that it was only fifteen points
35:16
last game, because they saw that he still got the full workload. It
35:20
just didn't pay off. And we've seen that plenty of times, Like look
35:22
at CMC last week. There was a bunch of twenty twos and eighteens that
35:25
added up where people were still saying, forget it, this is going to
35:29
be the spot where he goes thirty five plus and he goes for forty four.
35:31
People just chase instances like that, and for good reason. It's a
35:35
good matchup. So don't know if he's going to be over twenty, but
35:38
I think you will be owned for sure. So I'll have to wait and
35:40
see how that shakes out. When we get to the end of the week.
35:44
Let's move on, Let's go to this next one. Here, we
35:45
got Washington, New York thirty eight point total. What's the deal here,
35:50
Like, Zach, remember last week they were saying how Aaron Rodgers is medically
35:53
cleared now and all this, do we have any news on that? I
35:57
mean, I was I thought the article I read so that he was only
36:00
going to suit up if they won last week. Because now I think they're
36:02
mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, So there's really not a lot of upside for
36:06
him coming back other than him like trying to prove modern medicine wrong. Right,
36:09
Like, I think that's really the only upside because they're playing for nothing
36:13
now, so I don't think there's any chance he's going to play. Quick
36:15
quick note on it, Like some back and forth reports here that are going
36:20
against each other. One says like Jets officials don't want the quarterback to play
36:22
even if he's activated for my R. So that's how the team is looking
36:27
at it. And then Roger's saying he wants to play even with them being
36:31
out as the deadline nears, he wants to still get in and play.
36:36
So we'll see how it actually shakes out. I can't. I don't know
36:37
if he's gonna play. I can't imagine that he plays. So probably gonna
36:40
be Zach Wilson at forty eight hundred again. But what's your thoughts on this
36:44
game? Anybody that you liked within this one? Well, I know a
36:46
little secret that not a lot of people know. The Commanders fucking suck,
36:49
and so that really makes me, like Breese Hall and Garrett Wilson. I
36:52
feel like one of those dudes is just due for a monster game. I
36:54
think people are going to see this total, They're going to see the Jets,
36:58
and they're gonna forget the breeze. Haull Garrett Wilson are legit top ten
37:00
players at their positions, but we forget about them just because they're on a
37:05
team that has a quarterback that like is just hot garbage. So those are
37:08
two guys I'm certainly gonna be looking at. I think those price tags are
37:12
going to keep their ownership fairly benign, and I'm very interested bub Yeah.
37:16
And then the other thing is like the Zach Wilson concussion thing, and then
37:21
apparently his mom just spoke on it like an hour ago and said he was
37:23
hiding concussion symptoms, So I don't know what is gonna be. So I
37:28
can't imagine Rogers. I never imagine that at all. And then you know
37:32
Zach Wilson walked to await and see the concussion side of things. But even
37:36
still, like you said, if whoever's in, I think you could still
37:38
pick up some one off pieces here. I think Breis Hall, Garrett Wilson,
37:43
okay with either of those, even probably Tyler Conklin. But the Jets
37:46
d also at thirty one hundred. If you're gonna get this guy here just
37:50
throwing the ball as he does, he might any word, if Jacoby Brissett's
37:54
gonna start, because he looked really good when he came in a garbage time
37:58
and was like bringing the maners back. Yeah that's the other thing too.
38:01
We got to see him at that SIT's probably what they should do. But
38:04
will they Yeah, I mean yeah, I don't know why they're so in
38:07
love with Sam Howell, but whatever. And you think they're running a fantasy
38:10
team, like we got to have him for the fantasy output. Bro,
38:13
you're in the NFL. You're trying to win games, and like, that
38:15
guy's not a winning NFL quarterback sorry to tell you. Yeah, two tds.
38:20
He looked pretty good there. I don't know. Again, we'll see
38:22
how this picks up as the week goes on, but for forty nine hundred
38:23
percent starting, I'm sure some people will at least consider it for the price
38:28
alone. But again, it's not that much more to get up to some
38:30
of these other guys in this spot. That game we need a little bit
38:32
more information on as the week goes on. Let's go to this. Next
38:36
one is Seattle, Tennessee. We just saw Seattle crush last night with Drew
38:40
Lock come back and get the job I guess not crushed. They got the
38:43
job done though in the end some crazy catches from DK metcalf down the stretch,
38:46
the touchdown catch from JSN, and then a couple of really bad decisions
38:52
on Jalen Hurts, this part where he threw those long balls, like you
38:53
know at the end he needed thirteen yards to get in the field goal range
38:57
for Jake Elliott, the guy that we saw kick the fifth nine yard are
39:00
in a rainstorm and make it through like I'm not sure what that play call
39:04
was at the end or if he just did it because hoping for the old
39:06
Mike Tomlin passer interference when you got nothing else going on and just try and
39:09
get it called. But either way, Seattle got the job done. Drew
39:13
Locke almost in tears after the game, and now they came up today and
39:16
still said, yeah, but Gino's still gonna be our guy. So it
39:20
looks like Gino versus Will Levis. But then I don't know what's what's up
39:23
with Will Levis. He's Q tag as well. Yeah. To me,
39:27
this just strikes me as a game that's gonna be sloggy afin. I think
39:30
you're gonna see something like thirty runs per team in this game, and they're
39:32
gonna have like fifty five plays total, and this game is gonna be over
39:37
like all the other games will still have ten minutes left in the fourth quarter
39:39
and this game will already be over. That's just what it feels like.
39:42
I feel like you're gonna see a steady dose of old Kenneth Walker and Derreck
39:45
Henry and man, I'm telling you, Tash Spears is good. He just
39:47
doesn't get enough opportunities. Those all three of those guys would actually interest me.
39:52
If I think this game is just gonna be a run fest because you
39:54
can see Vegas has a decent total on it, right, like it's over
39:58
forty what is that forty forty two or so? So I could you know,
40:00
somebody's got to fall into the box. Why can't it be some of
40:02
these running backs? Yeah, I like that. I just looked it up
40:07
to the Levis ankle injury, so it could be Tannehill or Malik Willis.
40:10
They say so again, another just ridiculous spot here of these these back and
40:15
forth quarterbacks. But I'm with you, I would probably rather pick it up
40:19
on one of these other spots here. But it is a good matchup.
40:22
I will say that for forty two point total, a little bit of a
40:24
back and forth to see. And then like Sean says, oh, we're
40:27
gonna have to wait. It might be Tennessee this time that we have to
40:30
wait on whether it's Levis, Tannehill, or Malik Willis. But he said,
40:34
were gonna have to wait twenty minutes. That was a shit show last
40:36
night waiting on that, just to try and get that's what college football's like.
40:38
I don't expect that from NFL. Yeah, exactly exactly. Everyone said
40:43
that. Now you'll know what it's like playing some cfbdfs, so it definitely
40:46
sucks. You gotta just go with your stand I know it was just wild,
40:49
but like that, you know, when you got a guy start,
40:51
when a guy takes the first when he takes the snaps of the first team,
40:54
the other guy's a long shot to play. And then Gino doesn't even
40:59
show up in war and he's not out there. Everyone's like, but should
41:01
I still play him? Because what if this? What if that? You
41:04
still have to start the starting quarterback in your lineups and take a shot.
41:07
It doesn't always, it's not gonna work out sometimes, but just to say
41:09
it, if I'm picking the side there and you're putting your real money on
41:12
it, I would suggest sticking with the side of what makes the most sense.
41:15
And then we finally saw it and got the news, but still before
41:17
that is considering the other way. I couldn't do that myself. I thought
41:21
Lock looked pretty good last night. I thought he looked like a serviceable NFL
41:23
quarterback. Yeah, he always takes some flat for sure. I know,
41:28
like yesterday it was sort of back and forth in our chat, going back
41:30
and forth about if he was actually good or not. I thought more people
41:32
thought he was good than not. I don't. I don't think he's great,
41:36
but I thought he was fine for yesterday. Like you said, he
41:37
came through it. He got the job done in the end, which is
41:39
all it really matters. It's hard to win in the nibit. Dude.
41:42
It's a gunslinger, he really is. But Pete Carroll has turned into like
41:45
the most conservative coach in the NFL. Him And what is it, Demiko
41:47
Ryans like those guys they are, Oh, they're such pussies. Yeah,
41:52
I wish I would have thought more of that last night. I know,
41:53
like it was very close in the end, and it's a little quick rant,
41:55
but just the like the Walker side of things last night, horrible match
41:59
up on paper, which you know is gonna come in with lower ownership,
42:01
opposite side of Swift who got the late ownership. I was still okay with
42:06
Swift getting similar ownership to Hertz because I think again people always forget this thing
42:10
called roster construction and salary, where you need you need certain things to happen.
42:14
For example, the Hurts lineup that got to the optimal that was a
42:17
one to five with Jalen Hurts and five Seattle guys. It did only have
42:21
a two point nine point dissillee in there at two percent ownership or one point
42:25
nine points to two percent ownership. But it also at JSN you needed that
42:30
fifty six hundred dollars value receiver to get the whole way there with the touchdown
42:34
at the end, you needed Swift to fall out the one yard line to
42:37
get the second touchdown twice. Yeah, price, so it matters, right,
42:42
That's all I'm saying. I bring that up all the time, but
42:44
I mean for me, the other side of it with Walker, there was
42:46
that Drew Locke is starting, maybe keep the ball out of his hand some
42:51
and get Hurts off the field. Try and keep the ball out of his
42:53
hands some at home at center and center. There's a way to make it
42:57
work. And that's what they ended up doing. He was thirty something points
43:00
in the captain at much less price than a guy like Jalen Hurt. So
43:04
I always would play like that. I always like that. Anything else here
43:07
that you want to mention within this game, I think you know. Tennessee
43:09
defense twenty six hundred was one last thing. Chig thirty one hundred, like
43:14
the Tennessee side at least has some interest, but it's hard when you just
43:17
saw what happened with guys like Hopkins and all that. I kind of leaned
43:21
the running backs more, just like you'd mentioned. So we can go on
43:23
Jacksonville Tampa Bay. This is the three game afternoon site that we've got here,
43:29
So there's three games in the afternoon. We'll start with this one,
43:31
Jacksonville Tampa Bay. And everyone wants to talk about Baker Mayfield. Ay,
43:36
just like last week, the three afternoon games all enticing, aren't they?
43:38
Like I saved so many of my roster spots for afternoon games last week,
43:43
which was great because I hit a couple of nice pieces early on and then
43:45
you just get the boat race everybody in the afternoon if you're over leveraged and
43:49
those games go off like you anticipate. Hey, you know how I always
43:53
say this about the Colts. Every time I see Tampa Bay. I always
43:55
think sneaky shootout And like you know, on the Rosetta Stone that I do
44:00
on my site, we mark games that we think are sneaky shootout games,
44:02
and one of the ones we had was that Tampa Bay game, and sure,
44:06
shit, Baker Mayfield just I think he has taken it personally that I
44:09
keep saying that he's not a good fantasy quarterback and his mission in life is
44:13
just to prove me wrong. So I think I'm gonna have to back off
44:15
my stands that he is not a good fantasy quarterback and say that he is
44:19
a serviceable fantasy quarterback. Yeah, well, what was it. Let's see
44:22
now, we'll pull it up here. Since you've been saying it twenty and
44:27
thirty three, the last two weeks, you've been saying it is how he
44:30
put it up. But I mean three hundred and eighty one yards on twenty
44:32
two of twenty eight, like four touchdowns. Literally everything went his way there.
44:37
I mean again, the only thing is when you look at this on
44:39
paper, it's pretty much every spot right, Rashab White's decent spot, Baker's
44:45
in a great spot. You look at Evans, you know, even Godwin
44:47
getting back into the mix again. Finally, these last couple of weeks,
44:52
Aughton, both guys really in this game, Aughton and Ingram in both defenses
44:54
are twenty six and twenty nine. There's a lot of ways this game could
44:58
go. But the other thing is Lawrence I believe is in the concussion Protocol
45:01
as well, I didn't know that. I didn't I didn't see that.
45:06
So, yeah, if Lawrence is out, I think that that's a huge
45:07
nerve to obviously to all the pass catchers for Jacksonville. But if he's active,
45:12
I'm just gonna I mean Jay Jones at some point. Zay Jones is
45:15
an actual NFL wide receiver and if he's going to get eight targets minimum,
45:20
it's really hard to not play him at forty two hundred dollars. Yeah,
45:22
what's the best way then? Just saying that, Let's imagine if Trevor Lawrence
45:25
is out, then how do you like going about this? Do you like
45:29
the Baker's side with somebody and then bring it back with a Jones or what?
45:32
What are some of the ways you're seeing that you can mix this game
45:35
up? Yeah? I mean like, if Lawrence is out, to me,
45:37
that kills a lot of the quote unquote sneaky upside of this game,
45:42
and I would probably be pretty cold on it, right, Like I think,
45:44
I think in a game like that, if Lawrence is out, the
45:46
only two guys I'm really giving a hard consideration to three guys both of the
45:51
running backs White and Etn would be guys I would consider because I feel like
45:53
this kind of just turns into a better version of Seattle, Tennessee. And
45:57
then Zay Jones just because you know, like Zay Jones is out on the
46:00
field a lot, and you know, old Bethard's still going to throw the
46:02
ball probably thirty to thirty five times, and I think Zay's going to get
46:06
twenty five percent of that usage. So those would be the only three guys
46:09
I would really consider. You know, I can't pay up for Evan Ingram
46:12
at fifty four hundred bucks when he doesn't have Lawrence throwing in the ball.
46:15
That's just me though. Yeah, we'll see if this happens. And I
46:16
did see this injury late. I just looked this up. I didn't think
46:19
it was bad as what it was, but Jay Jones left the game.
46:22
I knew this lake as a big Ravens fan, obviously watching this just to
46:24
see it. It sucked to see Keith Mitchell go down. I knew that
46:28
was a bad one, and maybe that's why I thought this was less than
46:30
it was. But there is an article from this morning that says Doug Peterson
46:35
commented that the injury looked bad on the field this isn't great news for Jones.
46:39
We'll see blah blah blah. But we'll get more details in the coming
46:43
day. So again that'll be something else you'll have to keep an eye on
46:45
within that game. Just get off this. Go back to it for two
46:49
seconds here, you know. Or Washington season, and we saw Agnew come
46:53
out last week again too, right, he got that one catch for seventy
46:58
yard touchdown on top of the other catch. But still, you know,
47:00
Parker Washington has been a guy that we've been seeing in the mix. And
47:04
look six three six type targets. Didn't get the touchdown last game, say
47:07
all, but it was Agnew season, but really the workload was still there.
47:10
It was just Agnew caught the bomb. So that's kind of the thing
47:14
there, Yeah, it does, say and then Ridley sixty three hundred,
47:17
he'll be a guy that's harder for me to ignore as well, and maybe
47:20
others also because you know, looking at it, I just want to see
47:23
one thing. Still had twelve and thirteen targets, So this is the crazy
47:27
part. His last three draftings scoring outputs eight point nine, nine point three,
47:31
seven point three, but he's getting twelve, thirteen and eight targets,
47:37
which is more than his three previous games of six, nine and three.
47:39
So you know, average wise, he's way up there. He could be
47:44
in play, And again that's a value at sixty three hundred because you're still
47:46
going to get output and opportunity at that price point versus just saying, oh,
47:52
but he's not cheap. He's sixty three hundred, but he's you know,
47:54
he's a wide receiver one further team, and he's got possible injury stuff
47:59
that's got lean in his favor as well, especially if Trevor Lawrence does clear
48:02
the concussion protocol. So, like to me, ridly, his value goes
48:07
way up if Zay Jones is out and Trevor Lawrence is in like that,
48:08
that's a double bump for me. Yeah, and this is the coach.
48:12
I mean, they talked about it's a bad hamstring injury. So that's what
48:15
they were talking about in the latest article that you can find on news.
48:19
So I want to just keep that in mind as the week goes on,
48:22
and even if he does, even if he is active from that, you
48:24
got to expect a little bit of production dip because hamstrings are not good for
48:28
wide receivers. Yeah, and the reinjury goes up and all that. I
48:30
usually don't like playing around with that type of stuff when it is, you
48:34
know, lower body injuries to football players are typically tougher to go through,
48:37
or if it's like a finger or something in balls with their actual catching hand,
48:40
things like that angle. But for most part, anything hamstring, ankle,
48:45
anything like that, you're you're not usually messed around me. It's like
48:46
a golfer with a wrist issue. Big red flag, Big red flag,
48:51
gonna be tough exactly. Chad did ask earlier because the guy Trevor Bryant said,
48:55
is it going to be a chock? Justin Field's DJ more week?
49:00
So this game is in Chicago, it's not in Arizona. Forty four and
49:02
a half point total, Chicago favored by four and a half at home.
49:07
Where are you going with this one? Early on? I'll just say,
49:08
initially, if Justin Fields isn't the highest ooned quarterback on this slight, I'll
49:12
be stunned. Like people love this guy, and for good reason. He's
49:15
an awesome fantasy quarterback, right Like he just he does two things well.
49:19
He runs and he chunks the ball deep. And that's like the two most
49:22
valuable things your quarterback can do right, and he does both of those.
49:25
And yes, sometimes he'll flame out. It's crazy that that Cleveland game Sneaky
49:30
was like a high scoring game last week and he didn't even manage twelve points.
49:34
Right, But like his ability to have these monster games playing against notoriously
49:37
one of the easiest defenses in the NFL this year at DFS, if he's
49:43
not twenty percent owned in the higher the higher stake stuff, I will be
49:45
shocked. Another nice thing about him is you only need a skinny stack him
49:50
just running with Kamet, just running with Dj Moore. Oor shit, you
49:52
could probably even run the guy naked because he has the ability to run two
49:55
touchdowns in Yeah, he definitely does. I mean it is in saying that
50:00
he would be the most popular at seventy one hundred and with the output that
50:04
we've seen lately. Again, we'll see where everything shakes out with injuries on
50:07
the week and where people end up going. But the challenge is it's also
50:09
really difficult to leverage him. Like it's a great matchup on the ground for
50:13
Chicago, but with all those guys, it's always tough to sift through and
50:16
pick there. It's not really the best matchup for comment on paper, but
50:21
I love McBride. McBride's still only fifty seven hundred. I think this guy
50:23
should be like seventy five hundred based on the workload that he's getting, So
50:28
it just seems like a wrong price. I'm sure he's going to be very
50:30
popular again, but I again think it's for good reason, not just again.
50:34
You go back and look at the results twenty three, twenty three,
50:36
thirteen, nine, twenty four. It's not just those, it's eleven nine
50:39
nine seven nine fourteen. The targets are insane, and he's getting there often
50:44
enough that I don't care. Fifty seven hundred. It's a fair price.
50:46
Just got to find a way to get on. I I have a real
50:49
hot take on him. Trey McBride is good at American football. There you
50:52
go. That's my spicy take. I thought you're gonna have a secret note
50:54
he had written down really good. Oh only I always have the same note
51:00
written down. It's right here. Patrick Rodgers is a fucking loser. That's
51:04
my only note that I ever wrote right down. And you can apply it
51:06
and just change the name out at the set. It even helps you at
51:08
NFL. Just remember that even when you're doing NFL lineups. So the other
51:13
thing is DJ Moore sixty nine hundred, that's the real best buy pricing that
51:16
we always talk about is just the perfect price right there. Obviously been you
51:21
know, a great season for him so far, and then you look at
51:22
it. Obviously a lot of that has to do with Justin Fields last week
51:25
not his best week. So that's why I'm wondering, like again, when
51:29
people say, is it's going to be the most popular stack or if Fields
51:31
is the most popular, feel like there's enough people that look at it and
51:34
still don't get there because seventy one and sixty nine hundred for the combination of
51:38
them. Maybe that's the reason when you see that later in the week that
51:42
you want to go there. I don't know. But anything more on the
51:45
Arizona side, James Connor Kyler with a stack. We already talked about McBride,
51:50
but anything else on the opposite side of this game that you really like.
51:52
Kyler's just not good this year, man, Like he's just not himself.
51:54
And I hope that he becomes that electric player we used to see the
51:59
little you know, little min mini mouse just run around the field. I
52:01
just don't think he'll ever have that explosion again. And that was his that
52:05
was his secret sauce, right, was just running around creating these crazy plays
52:07
and scoring touchdowns on plays that add no business. And he doesn't have that
52:12
anymore. And Kyler Murray is not a guy, you know, all five
52:14
foot two of him just sitting there in the pocket that's gonna pick you apart
52:16
like Manning or Brady could. Right. So I just I just with him
52:22
losing that big playability, it just kind of kills his upside to my excitement
52:25
about him. Yeah, Jerry just asked this, like Murray being seven time,
52:29
and I'm actually, I don't think you need Kyler for McBride. McBride
52:31
can go nine for one hundred and no touchdowns and still crush. And then
52:35
he says the same thing I was gonna say about Connor's actually brought up Connors
52:38
last week. I really like that to try and keep San Francisco off the
52:42
field, opposite side of McCaffrey at huge shock. You could play them both
52:45
together, because they do. It's not really the same thing, you know,
52:47
how CMC's gonna get there a million different ways Connor's just going to be
52:51
the guy that gets there his own way. But in this spot, again,
52:53
it's almost like the Kuan Williams Cooper Cup thing, but for way cheaper.
52:58
Last week Cooper Cup was seventy it's fifty seven hundred and a different position
53:01
for McBride last week Kieran Williams was seventy five hundred. It's way cheaper to
53:06
get James Connor. You could just play both of those guys if you want
53:07
a piece of this game, and not have to worry about getting anything else
53:10
around them if you didn't want to, and just hope that Connors does his
53:14
job for his price on the ground, and that McBride continues to rack up
53:17
those catches. And even if it is a bit of an uglier game than
53:21
what some suggest or think, then you could actually still pick him up that
53:24
way, because they just run, run, run, get in the box
53:27
once or twice for a guy like Connor's, and then you have McBride pick
53:30
up all that chunk yardage and the third down stuff and all that. You
53:34
know. Nine for one hundred and zero still not a horrible day for a
53:37
guy like him there. So I think there's lots of ways to go about
53:40
matching this stuff up. But last time I checked, James Connor like never
53:44
leaves the field, which is like I've heard that it's easier to score Fantasy
53:46
points when you're on the field. A great DFS player once told me that
53:51
fifty nine hundred bucks. Yeah, last week again, same thing. So
53:53
he's getting targets still similar to your Hubbard take, but it's similar numbers,
53:59
but like again three two, five, and you know, Kyler can always
54:01
check down to him closer to that red zone end zone area as well.
54:06
He's still getting good yardage on the ground, good attempts, lots of opportunity.
54:09
You know, I think he's fine. And again, don't think you
54:12
need him with any type of stacker. You don't have to force that just
54:15
because. So that would be my final note on this game, and that
54:17
leads us into the big game, the big guy talking about the big game.
54:21
What do we got here on this one? We got a fifty one
54:23
and a half point total in Miami, Dallas, rous Miami. I mean
54:27
there's good games on like for example, Christmas Day, that night game Baltimore
54:31
San Francisco is gonna be awesome. But this is another game that I'm looking
54:35
forward to it, and it happens to be the last game of the slate.
54:37
There's two of them, the Arizona and we just talked about in this
54:39
one. But to round out a Sunday afternoon, I got no problem with
54:42
this game. What's your thoughts on? Initial instinct is the players in this
54:45
game are just too expensive, you know, like you, You're one of
54:49
the people that's always championed this, like Tyreek Hill, Ceedee Lamb. One,
54:52
if not both of those guys is probably going to go for thirty points
54:54
this game, and people are like, see, you had to have them,
54:57
But like at those price tags, that's not necessarily the case. Depending
55:00
on how the rest of the slave plays out, these guys could each go
55:02
for thirty and neither of them could even stiff, being close to an optimal
55:06
depending on what the other people are doing points per dollar. I think guys
55:09
like you know, like a guy like Jaylen Waddle, I think is overpriced.
55:13
You know, this is all assuming Tyreek Kill plays. I cannot imagine
55:15
they would keep him out for a game this big. You know, Jayleen
55:19
Wattle's overpriced. Most and a chan they step on each other's dicks at those
55:22
prices, you know, like I just I can't. The only Cowboy I'm
55:27
really interested in is Ceedee Lamb, and he's just too expensive. So like
55:30
this might be one of those things I just hold my breath and fade the
55:32
game, much like I did the Buffalo Cowboys game last week. Yeah,
55:37
and I will say similar spot. Right, you got two very expensive quarterbacks.
55:42
This was you know, we could just do it last week. What
55:44
was it? It was Dak Josh Allen, it was Diggs, Ceedee Lamb.
55:47
And then you go from there in the other spots with Ferguson. And
55:51
now this is a little bit different because last week we had the other guys
55:53
there like Kinkaid and whoever was on the opposite side of that forget. I
55:58
think it was Ferguson, but just to say it in this spot here.
56:00
The one thing about that, though, is that there was a way to
56:04
leverage it last week, and there was a way to get a piece of
56:06
that action, and it was through James Cook and not just being results oriented
56:09
as much as if you think about it, we all said everyone said the
56:13
same thing. We said, all the pieces are expensive. Turned out to
56:15
be true. Harder for them to get there even with the news. Obviously
56:20
Waddle was fine, but again the reason Wadal didn't kill people is because he
56:22
was only like two or three percent owned. In most tournaments, not enough
56:25
people converted their lineups with the last minute news of Tyreek. So that's fine.
56:30
But everyone said Buffalo was gonna smash Dallas. It was gonna be a
56:34
letdown spot for the Cowboys. Cowboys are looking ahead to their Miami game here,
56:37
which Nick brings up, maybe Dallas is gonna smash this week after blowing
56:40
it in the look at the spot. But everyone's saying all that stuff.
56:44
Then why would you knock get in on a guy like James Cook who had
56:46
just got like twenty five carries the week before or whatever or something like that,
56:50
twenty five point sorry the week before and a bunch of carries like that,
56:52
and then nobody really did it. He ended up being like four percent
56:55
in the large field twenty dollars million. I think it was like four point
56:58
eight percent. Any way, you can see to do that here in this
57:00
fun I mean, Tony Poler is the only one that makes sense, But
57:04
like he's not trending up like James Cook was. In my opinion, he's
57:07
trending down, not just in productivity but in usage. So I don't even
57:10
know that he would be a comparable comparison to Cook. Yeah, that is
57:15
true. I guess if you could see a way that, like Nick says
57:17
that you could see Dallas being up, I could see that you can get
57:22
small pieces here like you could pick up. I had Ferguson tagged on here
57:24
as well, so he was an option for me. Man, it's just
57:30
really tough. The thing is though, too tyreek back. I can't imagine
57:35
he misses another one in ninety six Hund, Like I said, not only
57:37
to the point you made of how hard it is for a guy like that
57:38
to get there, he needs like forty points, probably thirty plus. There's
57:42
no way you can put a real number. I'm the advocate of that as
57:44
well. We don't know what we're saying is that thirty is not guaranteed to
57:47
be enough, because there's so many other guys on this site that could put
57:51
up their own thirty at a much cheaper price. There's definitely options throughout those
57:53
games we talked about. There's the guys just in that Detroit mini game alone,
57:58
both Jefferson and a Monroe could beat Tyreek on this site for thousands on
58:01
thousands of dollars cheaper a couple of almost a thousand, almost like one.
58:07
Yeah. Yeah, So that's my point there, and it's like, again,
58:09
Tyreek can burn. This coverage Dallas D has actually been pretty good,
58:14
but just in general, it's an opportunity. And then Dallas D's three thousand
58:17
going against Miami. Jerry just brought that up. I had them tagged as
58:21
well, Gallup and Cook. So where people are gonna go if they go
58:23
here you see forty nine and thirty two hundred. I think that's more where
58:28
people end up than paying up for Waddle again with Tyreek back, or paying
58:31
up for Tyreek. And I do think Tyreek's ownership will come in lower than
58:36
what you would think because again a lot of people think you just everyone goes
58:38
there. More people are catching onto this, but they're seeing it too.
58:42
A lot of stuff has to happen right in order for it to get there.
58:45
Yes, sir, I agree, this is gonna be a game.
58:47
I'm just gonna have to strategically fade probably. I mean, I'll probably play
58:51
a piece or two like I did from that other one. But like,
58:52
this isn't where I want to get my money in because I don't like what
58:54
it does to my roster composition. Yeah, I agree, man, all
58:59
right, we got through. We're just under an hour. Any final thoughts
59:01
for this slate before we get out of here. This is our second last
59:04
show of the season. Just a quick note for everybody. This show will
59:07
be next week on the twenty seventh. Next week, it'll be on Wednesday
59:13
at one pm Eastern on the DJEN seventy five YouTube channel. That's twelve o'clock
59:16
in the Lowerd's time zone. It'll be our last one of the season because
59:20
it's week seventeen next week, right, and then we're taking off week eighteen,
59:22
and then we will be back in January doing golf, So be looking
59:25
out for that because I'm gonna you know, I love Monday first price reactions
59:30
to DraftKings pricing and being like, what the hell are you thinking? Guys?
59:35
Quit putting the endterns on this shit? Anything else for this slate?
59:38
You want to talk about nothing? It is a good slate. This is
59:40
a good slate. I mean like, there's a lot of options this week.
59:44
This might be I'm not a guy that normally does the one to fifty
59:46
max. But there's like like four quarterbacks that kind of fit my like cheap
59:51
slaptick quarterbacks that I want, a skinny stack that I might just have to
59:52
go, might have to go spam the millionaire maker. It's you know,
59:55
here in America, we have to pay taxes on our winnings tambo, So
1:00:00
it'd be a great week to either go win a million bucks or just lose
1:00:02
some money for to make my tax bill a little lower. Yeah, that's
1:00:07
what a lot of people are working on right there was it called tax harvesting
1:00:09
season, trying to get that. Go justam this shit out of contest and
1:00:14
be like, well I lost, but really I won because I'm paying a
1:00:15
lot less taxes now, free money. Sunday never had a better meeting than
1:00:20
now. So I hear what you're saying there. Thank you guys so much
1:00:22
for watching. I appreciate all the support. As always, we'll have more
1:00:25
content throughout the week. At djen seventy five dot com. You can use
1:00:29
promo code ship it there, or you can go to ship at nation dot
1:00:30
com use promo code djen seventy five there and get yourself teen percent off at
1:00:35
either site combined, The two get into the discords for Degeneral seventy five,
1:00:38
and for myself to tag and tambo let ship it to Hans hands with hand mist