Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #89: Industrializing the Blame Game, VC-Backed Startups and Fraud, Will You Quit on Me?
Transcript
- 0:00One repeat founder in the piece captures the dynamic bluntly by calling low risk, high
- 0:04upside, founding opportunities of starting a company and flooding the market in his own
- 0:08words as a nice way to get, you know, a job at Anthropic.
- 0:12Has your read on founder commitment changed at all given how accessible and lucrative those
- 0:15outcomes have become?
- 0:17Even if Anthropic offered me a $100,000,000, what else are you supposed to say?
- 0:21As a founder, if you want the money, like, I think some of these fundraisers are
- 0:26advertisements.
- 0:27They're a way to, like, advertise to the labs that you exist and that you're around.
- 0:33It's the week of August 3.
- 0:35Welcome to the Learning Corner, a Precursor Ventures podcast.
- 0:42Welcome to the Learning Corner by Precursor.
- 0:44I'm Mia Farnham, and I'm joined by our GP and managing partner, Charles Hudson, where we will
- 0:48be talking through the articles and Goodreads that caught our team's attention over the past
- 0:53week.
- 0:54Last episode, you got to meet Alina, who's one of our interns, and this week, we've got the
- 0:58other half of our great intern class, Braylen, here on the podcast.
- 1:03Thanks so much for joining us this week.
- 1:05We're excited to have you.
- 1:06I'm excited.
- 1:07I'm excited to have this conversation.
- 1:09Awesome.
- 1:10Over our first piece this week, Angela McNeil, author of her blog called the handshake
- 1:15protocol, released a piece titled The Architecture of Blame, which centers around the
- 1:20looming question of who's on the hook when an agent fails.
- 1:23Angela's argument is that blame doesn't become unanswerable because of AI.
- 1:28It becomes unanswerable when systems are designed to lose the answer, and humans have
- 1:34been building those systems through bureaucracy, policy, and org charts for
- 1:38decades.
- 1:40What AI threatens to do is industrialize that pattern, taking what used to require a whole
- 1:44bureaucracy to sustain and running it at machine speed across every workflow at once.
- 1:50The counterintuitive flip she makes is that a properly instrumented AI agent is actually the
- 1:55most auditable actor in your entire enterprise, more accountable than any person on the payroll
- 2:00who can only reconstruct a past decision from memory after the fact.
- 2:04She lands on attribution being a design time act, not forensics.
- 2:09Identity on every action, scoped authority, and scoped audit trail are the three things you
- 2:15build in advance, so the question of who owned a decision is never a fire drill after
- 2:20something breaks.
- 2:21We've been running, I feel like the past episodes in themes by accident, and I feel like
- 2:26this week's is on, like, truth telling and finger pointing and blame.
- 2:31Angela opens with a reminder that accountability gaps aren't an AI invention.
- 2:35So they're not new.
- 2:36Long before any model existed, humans built these gaps into their institutions.
- 2:41She gave examples of the insurance claim denied by the policy where everyone agrees it's wrong
- 2:47that it's not covered, no one can fix it, or the patient record owned by a process that no
- 2:52one has touched or edited since 2019.
- 2:55And the real risk Angela Flags isn't that AI creates this pattern, it's that it
- 3:00industrializes it, taking what used to require entire processes and people in place to sustain
- 3:06and running it at matching speed across every workflow at once.
- 3:09So if humans were building these accountability gaps long before AI existed, Charles, what
- 3:16changes occur when you hand that same pattern back to something that never sleeps and scales
- 3:22infinitely in Damn.
- 3:24World of agents?
- 3:25It's funny.
- 3:25This reminded me a lot of one of the best books I read in a while, which is Unaccountability
- 3:30Machine that, James Chan from Bloomberg referred me to a while ago.
- 3:34It's a really good book about basically how systems are designed so that no individual is
- 3:40accountable.
- 3:40It talks a lot about the impact of that on bureaucracy.
- 3:43And I think about this, and as someone who uses a lot of AI and has agents, if agents were
- 3:48really deterministic and followed all the rules, this would be a great framework.
- 3:52They mostly do that, but sometimes agents like humans, in my experience, do things and you go,
- 3:57why did you do that?
- 3:58And it's just like, I'm sorry.
- 3:59I'm like, well, that I'm not asking you to apologize.
- 4:01I'm asking you to explain why you did this aberrant thing.
- 4:04And sometimes the agents either can't or refuse to tell you why they did the thing that they
- 4:09did.
- 4:09I think one of the fundamental decisions everybody needs to make about AI is, like, how
- 4:14much authority and autonomy do you wanna give AI?
- 4:16And if you think of, like, your AI agents as employees, in most cases, you wouldn't give a
- 4:20brand new hire authority to ship to production without somebody looking at the code first.
- 4:26And the same way I have some friends who have AI agents that send emails without human
- 4:30review.
- 4:30I'm like, that sounds dangerous to me.
- 4:32The only way you're gonna catch those things is on the way out.
- 4:35I read this as like quality control for agents as a design decision.
- 4:39And it's as much about quality control, it is about blame.
- 4:41And like how often do you as a human wanna have somebody in the loop inspecting the outputs?
- 4:46And I find the challenging thing is you can look at something and it can work perfectly for
- 4:51two weeks, and then something in the underlying model changes.
- 4:53And a process that was working fine suddenly does And if you're not watching, and if you're
- 4:58not monitoring just like you would any other human employee or literally mechanical process,
- 5:03things drift.
- 5:04So you need to have eyes on these things.
- 5:05And I think this nirvana that you would set something and forget it, and it would just
- 5:09run-in perpetuity autonomously is nowhere near where we are today, if we ever get there at
- 5:13all.
- 5:13One thing that she did bring up was the big pros that you get from agents running these
- 5:20processes is potentially having the most accountable paper trail that you've ever had in
- 5:24comparison to people because she talks about human memory as the one piece that's basically
- 5:29rung true when you have to relook at a process and see what went wrong.
- 5:33I agree with her that there's an opportunity for agents to really step in and and really
- 5:38show what the process look like and what things touch, but to your point Charles I've had
- 5:41multiple instances where I've asked how you came, how you as the agent came to a specific
- 5:47action and not that it lies but it gets confused and then I almost have to be like
- 5:52that's actually not that couldn't possibly be where you got the data because that's not where
- 5:55it lives and it goes, oh, you're right.
- 5:57And so again, we're not there at least maybe within the build of the agents that I have.
- 6:02I have to be more robust in terms of how I construct them so that I can catch those little
- 6:07moments along the way.
- 6:08The paper trail piece still exists even though we're in a different setup of it all.
- 6:12It's a different paper trail.
- 6:14If an API call to a model returned a result, who's responsible?
- 6:18At least with the at least with the human process, there's like a person you could go
- 6:21talk to.
- 6:22Here in many cases, the agent is some combination of code, API calls, a model, which
- 6:28all work together in sometimes unpredictable ways.
- 6:31Carlson, I'm curious to know too kinda looking at it as a follow-up.
- 6:34The piece also makes the case that the organizations who can answer who owned this at
- 6:37any moment are actually the ones who can move the fastest.
- 6:40Right?
- 6:41And so we talk a little bit about kinda the audit trail that lets you deploy into kind of
- 6:45those consequential territories without flinch.
- 6:47I'm curious to know from an investment standpoint, you know, do you buy the framing
- 6:51that building this accountability infrastructure is seen as a competitive
- 6:54advantage, or do you look at it more so as not just a, you know, compliance tax?
- 6:59I think it's really important to understand drift.
- 7:02This is, like, one thing I've really come to learn in the last nine months.
- 7:06I have a bunch of models that work for a long time and then they stop.
- 7:09And sometimes they stop because I've learned something new that I haven't shared with the
- 7:14model or the agent, and so the expected result like the agent's still doing the thing it's
- 7:19supposed to do, it just isn't doing what I want it to do.
- 7:21And that's I mean, in other cases, it's something in the plumbing changed.
- 7:24Some of these things will break silently and they won't tell you.
- 7:27And if you don't have good, basically, sensors looking at the output, things can can go
- 7:31haywire for a while and you just don't know.
- 7:33If you're gonna build these things and use them for important decisions, it's imperative that
- 7:38you have the ability to audit and analyze.
- 7:41This is what went in and this came out.
- 7:42Did I get what I expected and what caused the drift?
- 7:46And everybody I know who runs a lot of these agents has this story.
- 7:48Oh, yeah.
- 7:49I realized that this thing was broken for two weeks and I didn't really realize how broken it
- 7:52was until I gave it kind of a deep inspection and realized, oh, this thing's messed up.
- 7:57And there are layers of severity.
- 7:58We've talked about this months ago, Charles.
- 8:01Remember when we walked through that article of either it was Burger King or McDonald, 100
- 8:05drinks were placed Yeah.
- 8:06Almost like an AI.
- 8:07Honestly, that's just funny.
- 8:09Like, it's just like a funny incident.
- 8:10The range here or the outcomes become far more drastic when and even Angela mentions it.
- 8:16If you bring this into health care, if you bring this into law, there are just far more
- 8:21drastic outcomes and negative things that can happen if things aren't watched.
- 8:26And so I think that's where the finger pointing and the blame becomes such a higher point of
- 8:31contention because at the end of the day, I think the the piece talks about the
- 8:35accountability sink.
- 8:36Who's around the drain at the end of the day to take the blame?
- 8:39And if there's almost too robust of a process, no one is.
- 8:43And so there's just no one there.
- 8:45And that's where I think this article brings attention of, is this gonna be so archetype
- 8:49that there is no one to blame at the end of the day when things go wrong?
- 8:53And is that actually something that organizations wanna design?
- 8:56I think you're gonna end up in a lot of cases where there's gonna be somebody whose job it is
- 9:01to use a model they didn't build or use an agent they didn't build.
- 9:04And if it goes wrong, they're gonna say, I didn't build the agent.
- 9:07I was just the agent the company built.
- 9:10The person who built the model who built the agent is gonna say, look.
- 9:14The agent did what it was supposed to do.
- 9:15It's actually Claude's fault or it's OpenAI's fault.
- 9:19It's the LOM or the underlying model provider's fault.
- 9:23And very few people are gonna be able to fully diagnose who's really at fault.
- 9:28And I think you're gonna end up with a bunch of finger pointing standoffs the majority of what
- 9:31happens in corporate America anytime something goes wrong.
- 9:34Yeah.
- 9:34Do you think that it will be an assumption in the future that you should you as the employee
- 9:40should be able to tinker around and improve the agent when it fails?
- 9:43That should be something that's within your wheel wheelhouse?
- 9:45I don't think most people want that responsibility.
- 9:48Right.
- 9:48It'd be like if you were working at an insurance company and you're like, oh, our
- 9:51underwriting model is predicting death rates wrong.
- 9:54I'm gonna go in here and tinker with the weights.
- 9:55Most people would be like, hey.
- 9:56That's, like, beyond my pay grade.
- 9:57Our next piece is a TechCrunch article covering two new academic papers, one from Imperial
- 10:03College and Emilion Business School and one from the University of Toronto.
- 10:07The map fraud patterns across VC backed startups from 2000 to 2023.
- 10:12The headline finding is that companies with venture funding were more likely to face fraud
- 10:16charges than those that didn't take it, and startups launched during overheated markets
- 10:20with weak investor due diligence are 19% more likely to later commit fraud.
- 10:26As a follow on to those statistics, researchers introduced this concept of facading and gives
- 10:32the example where founders have moved surface lies about performance to reinforce facading
- 10:37where fake customers, contracts, invoices are generated to back up those lies and going as
- 10:41deep as to where entire parallel realities are constructed around capabilities that simply
- 10:46don't exist.
- 10:47What makes this especially pointed in in the call out that investors are not just passive
- 10:52victims here and in some cases, co create fraud by continuing to back found as previously
- 10:57accused of misconduct.
- 10:58The researchers call for more accountability on the investor side, including SEC audits after
- 11:03startups hit large investment thresholds and investors being held liable for corporate
- 11:08governance failures.
- 11:09Reframing fraud is really a solo act.
- 11:12So, obviously, you know, a lot there.
- 11:13Definitely timing, you know, in terms of kinda where we're seeing in the market, but then also
- 11:18as we continue the conversation around compliance and accountability.
- 11:21I'm curious, Charles, you know, given that read, know, your initial thoughts, you know, at
- 11:26a high level.
- 11:26It matches my experience, which is that we've had a bunch of episodes about revenue.
- 11:30Like, what is we spent more time talking about what is revenue than I thought we'd ever spend
- 11:34in the modern era.
- 11:36I think part of that is because founders and and investors exist in this ecosystem with it's
- 11:42a feedback loop.
- 11:43With investors who are like, I wanna see more growth.
- 11:45Some businesses can really achieve that growth through honest means and other people say,
- 11:48look, they rationalize.
- 11:50If I can just get this round done and if we fudge the growth we'll go back to doing it the
- 11:55right way on the other side and I think we generally know how that happens.
- 11:58One thing I've learned is that there's far more fraud in my opinion in the venture startup
- 12:03ecosystem than ever gets reported.
- 12:06And part of the challenge is no one has the incentive to report it.
- 12:10There are cases I know of where both a founder and a VC, no fraud has happened.
- 12:14And there's usually not always a great reason to report.
- 12:18If you think about, like, the Charlie Davis thing, that was when a big public company has
- 12:21egg on its face over an acquisition.
- 12:23Your your options are to prosecute the fraud or just say, hey.
- 12:27We didn't do a good job on our due diligence.
- 12:29Like, my bad.
- 12:30And that's not gonna happen.
- 12:31If if a VC and a founder know, if the founder and VC both come out about this fraud, they
- 12:37they everyone has to take accountability for what happened.
- 12:39The investor has to say, hey, this thing happened under my watch.
- 12:41I should have been paying more attention.
- 12:42I didn't ask enough questions.
- 12:43The founders just say, was like a criminal or I did something wrong.
- 12:47And in many cases, there's fraud at companies that are not consequential.
- 12:50Companies like go to zero or they don't matter or they wind down and people bury the fraud or
- 12:56the bad action with the company, which is a shame because oftentimes those people go on to
- 13:00do the same thing in their next company.
- 13:04And investors may or may not learn the lesson that they learn when this fraud is more public.
- 13:08Most things are not Theranos.
- 13:10Right.
- 13:11They're just they're not.
- 13:12Oh, this company lied about a couple of an account and that enabled them to get a
- 13:16financing done, but it wasn't a lot of money for the person who wrote the check and the
- 13:20company failed anyway.
- 13:21So you're like, well, what's what's the point?
- 13:24I do think the pressure right now that companies are under to show these crazy growth
- 13:28rates.
- 13:28And the irony is sometimes you learn after the fact that the crazy growth rate was never real
- 13:32or the crazy growth rate itself was a product of dodgy processes and suddenly everybody has
- 13:37engaged in collective bad behavior chasing a target that was never real.
- 13:42I'm a 100% certain there will be companies whose ARR revenue reported growth ramps.
- 13:48We will look back on them and say, oh, that wasn't what we thought it was, and maybe we
- 13:51shouldn't have all been chasing that.
- 13:52They break down levels of faceting into three categories and they start with surface level
- 13:58which is what I see all the time.
- 13:59I actually don't even know if I can really call out and slap the hands of founders or
- 14:04investors.
- 14:05It's just I mean, it's media.
- 14:07It's being able to put your numbers out for people to see And since they're private
- 14:11companies and they're so early, I think that exists throughout our ecosystem.
- 14:14That's just like something that you have to sniff out as an investor.
- 14:17When somebody gives you a update about their their company, something was a company that you
- 14:21haven't invested in, like, you have to then do the diligence to see what am I missing here.
- 14:26If it's all positive and rosy, the deep facade, that's what you're referencing, Charles.
- 14:32Like, that's what Times bestselling novels are built off of, like the better know story.
- 14:36Those happen those are quite rare.
- 14:38And so that's why when they when they come out, like, it is such a blockbuster event.
- 14:43I know the piece talks about different remedies that we can make to solve this, and one of them
- 14:47was broader SEC audits.
- 14:50I find the friction in that knowing that the way that I know venture works, especially in
- 14:55hypey, bubbly markets, new rounds with new valuations just happen so quickly.
- 15:00There's no time to do that.
- 15:02And then it kind of ties into the process of why founders enjoy staying private longer
- 15:08Yeah.
- 15:08Now more than ever because there's just so much more at stake when you go public.
- 15:12So again, all themes we've talked about, but it's unclear to me how you break the cycle,
- 15:17especially in a market that we're in today.
- 15:19Yeah.
- 15:20I mean, you could I think what you said is really true.
- 15:22In hot markets, most people make the calculus.
- 15:25Hey.
- 15:26If I ask a lot of questions and do a lot of diligence, I might not win this round.
- 15:30And if I'm gonna do the round, make the investment anyway, what's the point of doing
- 15:35all the due diligence if I know if I already made up my mind?
- 15:37Yeah.
- 15:38Audit financials would catch some of this stuff, but in general, I find that orchestrated
- 15:43fraud usually starts at the top at most startups.
- 15:46And so I do think if there were more corrective consequences for board members, management, and
- 15:51investors, there'd be less of this.
- 15:53Yeah.
- 15:53I don't think any of those people want that to happen.
- 15:56Yeah.
- 15:57And so I I think I've just sort of concluded that a certain amount of fraud and misbehavior
- 16:03is an occupational hazard of being a venture capitalist who invest in private companies.
- 16:06And my job as a VC is to try to sniff it out Mhmm.
- 16:10Before I make an investment.
- 16:12And if I find it after I make an investment, to try to fix it.
- 16:16But most VCs are non control investors.
- 16:19And so in some cases, the only remedy you really have is to try to get rid of the person
- 16:23in charge of the company, which most VC funds aren't willing to do.
- 16:26It's also like most of the things I found out in our portfolio companies in the rare cases
- 16:29something bad has happened, it has been a lower level person telling me, hey, this CEO is like
- 16:34up to something or like I'm resigning because I'm really uncomfortable with the way that
- 16:38we're presenting financials to the board or the way that we're talking about our pipeline or
- 16:43this upcoming product.
- 16:44Like, it's usually like an internal junior person on their way out the door who tells you,
- 16:49like, look here.
- 16:50This is where the bodies are buried.
- 16:52Yeah.
- 16:53And the behavior starting at the top, it doesn't really take that Hollywood form of
- 16:57people gathering into a room usually and that this is how we're going map it out.
- 17:01It's usually just pressure, pressure coming from every type of angle that instills this new
- 17:05energy in your organization of, we need to move quicker.
- 17:08And I don't think we can do that without fabricating a bit of this in some way, shape,
- 17:14or form.
- 17:14We go to great lengths in venture land to not call fraud fraud.
- 17:18Facetting and fudging, and sometimes people are just straight up lying.
- 17:23They're just lying.
- 17:24Plain language makes these things easier to understand.
- 17:27My last piece on what my line is for surface level facade.
- 17:31Yesterday on LinkedIn, I think I saw one founder post like a growth map, obviously, in
- 17:37like the normal x y axis that shows how much they've grown month or month.
- 17:42And it literally was just a line.
- 17:43There were no numbers, and it just showed a line that increased over time with like a lot
- 17:48of interactions and comments, and I was sort of like, yeah, I mean, it's not false, but it
- 17:53could just be the y axis is literally like a dollar to like $10 and like that's just like
- 17:59the beginning parts of how people kind of get into the swirl of how can I put out signals
- 18:04that things are going well, but also fall in the realm of what's passable, which that's
- 18:08what's scary and but I think it's worth the job to what you just said?
- 18:11Yeah.
- 18:11And I think about accounting just kinda having that background all the time.
- 18:14We kinda lean into the trust but verify.
- 18:16That's kinda just always been a written rule of, you know, being able to scope out those
- 18:20opportunities and what those may look like.
- 18:22And so definitely spot on in the sense of, you know, how you gotta sometimes just pull, let's
- 18:27just say, pull the rug up to see what's under there.
- 18:29So our last piece is from the Wall Street Journal titled VCs are asking founders, will
- 18:34you quit on me?
- 18:35By Yulia Chernova covering how the AI is feeling a wave of founder poaching and acqui
- 18:42hires that is leaving early stage investors feeling shortchanged.
- 18:46Backed by the stat, the venture backed startup acquisitions in the AI sector jumped from a 100
- 18:50in 2014 to 322 last year and are already on a pace to exceed that in 2026 with 245 deals
- 18:58through early June alone.
- 18:59The dynamic that AI labs and big tech companies are dangling hard to resist offers that found
- 19:04this is happening.
- 19:06And what we see after VCs are already invested at high valuations is that founders are now
- 19:11walking away with large equity packages while investors often just get their money back.
- 19:16And so the article highlights VCs now explicitly asking the diligence, will you sell
- 19:20to a lab in a year?
- 19:21Which is a question that they say never had kinda asked before in attempt to re found a
- 19:26commitment through long dinners, conversations rather than pitch decks.
- 19:29One repeat founder in the piece captures the dynamic bluntly by calling low risk, high
- 19:33upside, found an opportunities of starting a company and flooding the market in his own
- 19:38words as a nice way to get, you know, a job at Anthropic.
- 19:41And so, Charles, you know, I wanna pause for your thoughts on this piece.
- 19:45And specifically, has your read on founding commitment changed at all given how accessible
- 19:49and lucrative those outcomes have become?
- 19:51I try very hard not to ask people questions where, like, there's only one right answer.
- 19:56And if you say, are you gonna quit it?
- 19:57Everybody's like, no.
- 19:58I'm gonna I'm in it for the long haul.
- 20:00I'm, like, totally gonna do this even if Anthropic offered me a $100,000,000.
- 20:05What else are you supposed to say as a founder?
- 20:08If you want the money and one of my friends this weekend, we were talking about this very
- 20:13this very theme.
- 20:14And he's like, I think some of these fundraisers are advertisements.
- 20:17They're a way to like advertise to the labs that you exist and that you're around and to
- 20:23give them some sense of what it would take to get you.
- 20:26We have a one of our existing portfolio companies, one of the co founders, is probably
- 20:29gonna go join one of the the the big labs.
- 20:32And it's a lot of money and his co founder was like, this is what they offered him.
- 20:36I was like, he's probably gonna take it.
- 20:37It's a lot of money.
- 20:38I didn't I didn't feel I didn't feel like wronged.
- 20:41I said, look, my job is to find people who want to build great companies and who will who
- 20:48believe that, like, the best bet they can make is on themselves as a founder.
- 20:51I think if you're running a company and somebody offers you $20,000,000 to join a lab
- 20:57company in, compensation over a couple of years, if you don't think you can make that in
- 21:02your own startup like risk adjusted, you're gonna take it.
- 21:06And so like the ways I can the only ironically, some of the ways to solve this are a, find
- 21:10people who are just maniacally committed, but every founder tells you that.
- 21:14Two, find companies that raise so much money that like they can afford to remain independent
- 21:20and that the lure of like a big payday, it doesn't matter because they already have the
- 21:24resources.
- 21:25Or three, just accept this has been an issue in every cycle since mobile because in my mind
- 21:30mobile is really when aqua hires became a thing.
- 21:32And I think the model providers are doing exactly what they should do, which is if they
- 21:36see talent that they think they want that could be effective in their organization, they should
- 21:42go get it.
- 21:43And if they are able to pay more and those people think, hey I mean, the truth is what
- 21:48these people are really telling you is, I think I I am better off working at Anthropic.
- 21:52I will make more money for myself and my family than I am being the founder of this company.
- 21:56And that's as much an assessment about Anthropic as it is about the thing they're
- 22:00working on.
- 22:00Yeah.
- 22:01The irony of it all is that the companies that this happens to the most frequently, I would go
- 22:06out on a limb and say, probably raise debt valuations that are at the higher end of the
- 22:11bubble.
- 22:12And so the tension is tough of investors being like, this is worth paying up for.
- 22:16And then feeling like, oh, like, this actually came out in a direction that I probably didn't
- 22:22want, but what can you do at that moment?
- 22:24I think if you invest in a company where the founders are AI researchers doing AI research y
- 22:29things, part of your memo has to say, there is a chance these people will get poached
- 22:34Yeah.
- 22:34And that they will end up at the model provider, and I will maybe get back my money or
- 22:39my money and then some but this won't be a home run.
- 22:41And like that, I if ironically, if I were making those investments, that would be like my
- 22:45principal fear.
- 22:47It's not the companies go to zero, it's that they go to one x.
- 22:49And you get your money back in some weird acqui hire, acqui license deal.
- 22:52They go make a bunch of money, and you're left with the shell of a company that you have to
- 22:56figure out what to do with.
- 22:56I wish I had better news.
- 22:58There's something really interesting sitting at the intersection of this piece in the fraud
- 23:01article that we just discussed.
- 23:03On one side, investors are setting expectations pretty extreme that founders feel pressured to
- 23:07misrepresent what they built.
- 23:09And then on the other end, they're now asking founders to prove that they have conviction to
- 23:13state the course no matter what.
- 23:15Gives me a how do you, like, hold both of those dynamics at the same time?
- 23:19Right?
- 23:19They would talk a lot about kinda, like, some of the struggles from both ends, but in those,
- 23:24you know, pressure moments yet, you know, moments where you're also trying to build
- 23:27conviction.
- 23:28How do you kinda balance those dynamics?
- 23:30We're in this world where, for investors, the only companies that really matter are the big
- 23:35scaled outcomes.
- 23:36That's it.
- 23:36That's kind of the whole game right now.
- 23:38It's the whole business.
- 23:39Kinda stinks, it is what it is.
- 23:41Which means investors are trying to figure out very quickly, is this company SpaceX?
- 23:46Is this company Databricks?
- 23:47Is this company gonna make me famous and and rich?
- 23:50My friend Reese like Reese sent like one of these like memes around with like the parent in
- 23:55a pool with two kids.
- 23:57And like one kid's on the ledge.
- 23:59It says like mega fun VC.
- 24:00It has a kid on the ledge where it's holding its hands.
- 24:03And it says current portfolio founder.
- 24:05And the kids like drowning the parents like not paying attention to them.
- 24:08Then at the bottom of the ocean, has like a skeleton in a chair and it says portfolio
- 24:12companies that won't even help the fund get to one x.
- 24:15And it I do think like we're in this dynamic where investors wanna win the deal and founders
- 24:20wanna get the money.
- 24:21And then as soon as that's over, investors are like, great.
- 24:24Is this company gonna matter?
- 24:26If it's gonna matter, I'm gonna put pressure on it to continue to grow.
- 24:29And if it doesn't matter, I don't care.
- 24:32And founders are like, I wanna be in the bucket of companies that matter.
- 24:35And I know the the bucket of companies that matter are the high performers.
- 24:38I need to make sure I'm a high performer.
- 24:40I think the difference or something that feels meaningfully different here is that the the
- 24:43term of high performer, I think, now is tied heavily to to signal, like outward signal.
- 24:49I can come in the firm in the terms of high valuation, large round, large social media
- 24:53presence, building in public, all of that, which I don't know.
- 24:57Look, we've seen over cycles there there isn't all too much data that that is the recipe for
- 25:03creating strong outcomes.
- 25:05Yeah.
- 25:05But we've we as venture and the ecosystem to your point, think we are just in this cloud of
- 25:13figuring out what to make sense of the entire investment stack from LPs to GPs all the way
- 25:20down to founders.
- 25:21Yeah.
- 25:21And so people are trying to figure out where their priorities lie.
- 25:25And so I to your point, like, if I'm a founder and I'm presented with a $20,000,000 cash offer
- 25:31to go join a AI lab company and I just raised 6 to $10,000,000, like, I debate that pretty
- 25:39heavily.
- 25:39And I actually would say I would actually appreciate a founder who's like, yeah.
- 25:44If I came along, like, I would look at it.
- 25:45Because I think that's a little bit more realistic than you telling me, like, I'm here
- 25:48until the day I die.
- 25:49Be like, okay.
- 25:50Like, well, I've seen companies shut down all the time, so it's okay that you can have, like,
- 25:54a different answer to this question.
- 25:55But I don't know if that level of transparency will actually ever come out, candidly.
- 26:00And I think, honestly, most people don't know.
- 26:02It's one thing to be like, oh, yeah.
- 26:03If it showed up, I wouldn't take it.
- 26:05How do you know that?
- 26:06Yeah.
- 26:06You don't?
- 26:07Yeah.
- 26:07Well, we are all out of time.
- 26:09Thank you, Charles, for joining us.
- 26:11Thank you, Braylen, for joining us as well.
- 26:13To all of our subscribers, please like and share with friends, and we will talk with you
- 26:17all next week.
- 26:18Thank you.
- 26:19Bye.