Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / MMA Show | March 23, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

Transcript

MMA Show | March 23, 2024 | UFC Fight Night DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  All systems going on clear lift. What's going on? Everybody? Happy Friday.
• 0:39
  Hope y'all have a good weekend, Have a good week so far,
• 0:42
  Have a good weekend. On tap March Madness, m m A, n
• 0:46
  b A, n h L, PGA Showdown, NASCAR. Too much money
• 0:51
  be made this week, Big Marley Hunter k up top like usual in the
• 0:55
  m m A streets. Love to see that Ge Kuiper in here, Lone
• 0:58
  Wolf Ben and p E T. Robert Payaneya. What's going on? Everybody?
• 1:03
  Appreciate everyone hanging out watching live, watching on playback. Of course,
• 1:07
  Big Marley, I'll throw it to you, because, man, what a
• 1:10
  card we have this Friday name value. There's some good fights litter top to
• 1:15
  bottom, thirteen fights at the Apex seven pm Eastern. But man, and
• 1:19
  we're talking dfs, it's one of the craziest cards I can remember. Like
• 1:23
  minus two ten the biggest favorite, then minus two to five, then minus
• 1:27
  two hundred, otherwise all other favorites in the minus one hundred range finishes.
• 1:34
  I mean, yeah, more finished. I think with like seven of the
• 1:36
  thirteen or something like that, maybe eight are expected to finish. But even
• 1:38
  the ones that are expected to finish is kind of slightly favored. I think
• 1:42
  we could see a lot of decisions, a lot of close fights, ownership,
• 1:47
  pretty spread outs. It's a tough card, no doubt about that.
• 1:51
  And I struggle finding some fades on this one. How do you see this
• 1:53
  one? How do you like it? On a scale like one to ten?
• 1:57
  Are you increasing volume? Taking a little back? I mean, it's
• 1:59
  a crazy How you doing today? I'm good, I'm good. Yeah,
• 2:01
  I'm looking forward to this card mainly because of DFS. I think it's a
• 2:06
  solid slate where you can really do anything you want. On this card,
• 2:09
  I have a couple fights I plan on fading, maybe another fighter too along
• 2:15
  the way. But yeah, it's it's a tough card. I've been trying
• 2:19
  to build lineups, like not handbuilding, but I've even been trying to mess
• 2:22
  with the solver and I've not been loving my exposures that I've been getting.
• 2:25
  But it's it's tough. I feel like I can go from ranges from like
• 2:30
  twenty to forty on multiple people on this card and I'd be okay with it.
• 2:34
  You could leave like three grand salary on the table, You'd probably be
• 2:38
  okay. Be optimal. Maybe I have a good chance at winning too,
• 2:42
  So lots of ways to go. Hopefully we make it a good one.
• 2:46
  Looking forward to talking to you about it. Yeah, no, I'm excited
• 2:50
  to go through these. You might change my opinions on some. I mean
• 2:53
  yeah, broad slay overview for me. Before you go fight by fight.
• 2:57
  You could definitely leave money on the table, Like if there's ever a slate
• 3:00
  you could leave thousands on the table, it's this one. Because DraftKings pricing,
• 3:04
  they don't price anybody the same. They go eighty two hundred, eight
• 3:07
  thousand most fights, sometimes eighty one eighty one, and then they just go
• 3:10
  the smallest favorite by Monday or whatever they do, closest line fight eight two
• 3:15
  eight k, next one, eighty three, seventy nine, et cetera.
• 3:17
  So the biggest favorite on the card is minus two hundred. Someone's got to
• 3:21
  be ninety four hundred on this card, so we do have a ninety four
• 3:24
  hundred, ninety three, ninety two, et cetera. But they have awful
• 3:28
  money line equity compared to their pricing. When you look at some of these,
• 3:32
  like eighty four hundred, fighters almost have the same money line fight or
• 3:37
  money line as some of these nine k guys. So definitely you can leave
• 3:39
  money on the table on DraftKings. No doubt about that. Ownership is going
• 3:44
  to be spread out. It's I mean, it's not a week you have
• 3:46
  to worry as much about getting unique because I think there's just so many good
• 3:51
  combinations. Ownership's already up on the site. So if you are a premium
• 3:53
  member at chipination dot com, projections ownership already up. Everything else will be
• 3:59
  up after the show to check it out. But yeah, you can leave
• 4:02
  money. It's very tough. It's hard to narrow the pool for me.
• 4:06
  Yeah, that's the broad slate. We'll go fight by fight like always again.
• 4:10
  Hoop fifteen is that promo code, all the MMA stuff, projections,
• 4:14
  ownership up, everything will be up after PGA showdown, still, NBA,
• 4:17
  him and AIDS will be on the show. Our Rideo's going tomorrow Live Final.
• 4:23
  Make sure to wish him good luck there, NHL going on, NASCAR
• 4:27
  going on, so much going on again, Chipnation dot Com. Hoop fifteen
• 4:30
  is the promo fifteen percent off and shout out to you. I say it
• 4:33
  all the time, Marlee. Ownership then absolutely money though it's pretty tough this
• 4:39
  week to do ownership, though there's no doubt about that. I think it'll
• 4:42
  be relatively spread out. Appreciate that, Romie, we're doing well. Hit
• 4:46
  that like, of course, we do appreciate it. Anything from you on
• 4:48
  Marlee fight like broad a slate overview. You kind of gave yours, but
• 4:54
  or you just want to go fight by fight, Bob the top. I'm
• 4:57
  ready to get right into it. Do it. Mick Parkin two big boy
• 5:00
  fights on the card, one to start it off and then co main event
• 5:04
  Mick Parkin Mohammed, Usman eighty four hundred, park in seventy eight hundred Usman
• 5:10
  parking minus one forty five Usman plus one twenty five. On the way back,
• 5:15
  it's fight plus one twenty to finish, Parking plus two to seventy five
• 5:17
  inside the distance Usman plus two eighty five. All right, big Marley,
• 5:24
  I'm starting it off with a fade, and it's a scary fade. First
• 5:28
  fight of the night. Big boys out there, small cage. A lot
• 5:31
  of crazy stuff can happen, but you gotta have I mean, I wanted
• 5:35
  four fades on this card in twenty in below. I needed some underway tags.
• 5:40
  All of you. I think you can make a case for every fighter
• 5:42
  on this card to be optimal, Like plus one eighty is the biggest dog
• 5:46
  on the card, so anyone's live to win. I think most fighters have
• 5:50
  passed the victory. At least you can talk yourself into it when you look
• 5:54
  at their ownership. I'm not getting to this one man, Mohammed Usman really
• 5:58
  boring. He wants to wrestle and just lay on you, very low volume.
• 6:01
  I mean man Parkin didn't look great last time out either. I think
• 6:05
  it's strikings mid. I don't think he gets takedowns. I think it's Usman.
• 6:09
  If anything, I think this fight a lot of it plays out against
• 6:12
  the defence, back and forth, jockeying for position. You do get cage
• 6:16
  control, clinch control for that on DraftKings, But yeah, I mean a
• 6:20
  I don't even know you're Parlang. Who's gonna win this fight. I'm picking
• 6:24
  park Parking because I just think Usman's no good and the volume is so low.
• 6:28
  But eighty four hundred. I prefer the Talbot time In fight, which
• 6:31
  I don't even love that much. I prefer the Ogden Halibo fight, especially
• 6:35
  the Hallibo side. The billy Q fights in that range which I prefer right
• 6:40
  there, Like, I just know, thanks to this fight relative to what's
• 6:43
  in its range, winner give me eighty points in this one. Let's move
• 6:46
  on. Tell me if you have anything different. Yeah, I guess I
• 6:50
  like it more than you do, mainly just because they're big boys, that
• 6:56
  the knockout is always in play for heavyweight. And then I also think that
• 6:59
  either one of them could mix in multiple takedowns and have a good success in
• 7:03
  top control. I don't really expect anything on the the from either guy.
• 7:09
  I guess on the bottom, but I would say that Ousman's just the stronger
• 7:13
  wrestler, but Parkin maybe the more technical and better grappler, more technical wrestler,
• 7:18
  better grappler of the two. And then the striking, it's really Ousman
• 7:23
  just power again, Like he's got an overhand right that you got to watch
• 7:26
  out for, but he's not gonna have a ton of volume, and he's
• 7:30
  never thrown a leg kick in his life, so it's really all you got
• 7:33
  to watch is the left and the right. That's it. And then he
• 7:39
  might try and do a double leg with just pure power. But if he
• 7:43
  doesn't get the takedowns and he doesn't get a knockout. I just think Parkin's
• 7:46
  gonna be the more technical fighter, mix in all the striking tools and just
• 7:50
  kind of pick him apart on the feet. And I also think he could
• 7:53
  land takedowns of his own and maybe score well that way. He had what
• 7:58
  three takedowns in his last fight, scored eighty three DraftKings points. That's not
• 8:03
  great, but he only landed thirty nine significant strikes on the feet, and
• 8:07
  I think that Usman's a lot more hit aable, he's a lot slower.
• 8:09
  I think he could land more strikes on the feet and maybe still have three
• 8:13
  takedowns and have that same ground success on this one. So instead of playing
• 8:18
  both sides, I'm gonna take a stand on this one. I will play
• 8:20
  some Parking, but I'll probably be underway or fading Ousman. It could burn
• 8:24
  me. It could definitely burn me with like a first round knockout on the
• 8:28
  Usman side, But I just don't think he's very good. Same with Parkin,
• 8:31
  but I just think Parking's better and more well rounded. Yeah, thankfully
• 8:35
  for me. I'll be at the Live finals, some drinks will be going
• 8:37
  down. It's a late start, so I can very well put that phone
• 8:41
  down. I'll watch that first fight someone gets a knockout and early that phone's
• 8:46
  getting tossed, and yeah that'll be good Sea, Yeah that'll then I'll just
• 8:50
  go on to NBA and sweat out with Rio. But yeah, it's it's
• 8:54
  scary for sure, big boys, small cage, both inside the distance,
• 8:58
  props under plus three hundred. I think you're crazy to play this fight at
• 9:01
  all. I wrote in the slate plan too. If I'm playing one point
• 9:03
  fifty, I think I'm leaving every single fighter in my pool, and I
• 9:07
  don't love to do that all twenty six. But again, I think every
• 9:09
  single fighter could have a path, and then you diversify more, you expect
• 9:13
  to get more back. You play MMA, it's first or last. You
• 9:18
  just need one lineup to take first. Especially with the chops this week,
• 9:20
  I wouldn't worry about chops as much. Like there's plenty of fifty K lineups
• 9:24
  out there that'll have no dupes and that you can actually make pretty solid I
• 9:28
  think this weekend. So yeah, man, it's a tough one. I'm
• 9:33
  excited to see what kind of phase you got on this one on this car
• 9:35
  because I struggled, but I'm off for this one to start, big boys,
• 9:39
  I will be holding my breath, no doubt about that. What's going
• 9:43
  on, Colin Te Hope you're doing well? Hippers going to pick up a
• 9:46
  six sixty six Chevy. Definitely not a car man over here, but I
• 9:50
  know sixty six is pretty old, so I hope that thing can get you
• 9:54
  back home. Devin, what's going on? Man up this morning? Swapped
• 10:01
  us? Yes, i'man cash now. DFS is so fun. DFS can
• 10:03
  be a brutal game, for sure. We'll get it back this week.
• 10:07
  And Cam is in here, Shark is in here as well. Hope you
• 10:09
  guys are doing well. Let's keep it rolling though, Big Marley. Next
• 10:13
  fight on the card we have, Oh, this should be a fun one.
• 10:18
  Andre Lima igor Da Silva minus one eighty is Lima plus one fifty five
• 10:22
  is DA Silva. Odds in this one minus one sixty five to finish,
• 10:26
  Lima plus one thirty Da Silva plus or plus two seventy five inside the distance.
• 10:33
  I'm excited for this one. Two young kids twenty five years old for
• 10:37
  Lima twenty years old, for several Reno. I think this is gonna be
• 10:41
  a high paced fight. You look at inside the distance props and both guys,
• 10:46
  it screams good fights. I think the pace is pretty high. I'm
• 10:50
  not sure like minus one sixty five. I'm not as convinced we see a
• 10:52
  finish in this fight, but especially if the egor wins, I'm not sure
• 10:56
  we need it. I think some wrestling could be mixed in on this fight.
• 11:00
  Yeah, two young kids, two guys. I'm excited about the future,
• 11:03
  twenty five, twenty years old. I'm excited for this one. How
• 11:05
  do you see it going down? What's your prefer side and do you see
• 11:09
  do you see enough takedowns being implemented or volume? Like a decision These guys,
• 11:13
  mainly Lima could end up on the optimal. Yeah, I'm looking forward
• 11:18
  to this fight. I think they're both solid prospects. Da Silva or Severino,
• 11:24
  whatever you want to call him. His kid's only twenty years Oh,
• 11:26
  I should say that quick. We're depending where you look Da Silva or Severino,
• 11:31
  they're the same people, Igor, da Silva, Severino. We look
• 11:33
  on Fando DraftKings. I think it's different. So yeah, keep going.
• 11:39
  So, Yes, Severino's only twenty years old, and I'm already impressed with
• 11:43
  this kid. He's aggressive on the feet. He's got a real mean upper
• 11:46
  cut that he can connect with, and just the pressure alone on the feet
• 11:50
  is going to keep him around for a while, I think. But he
• 11:52
  had five takedowns as well, in like the first two rounds or something of
• 11:58
  his Tender series fight. I did. I did the math on it.
• 12:03
  What he would have scored in that one if it was a real fight,
• 12:05
  and it would have been one hundred and fifty one point three to one DraftKings
• 12:09
  points from this kid. We'll take that. And yeah, I would take
• 12:13
  that for sure, especially at his price, Like if you don't have if
• 12:16
  you don't have something, I don't care what price, ten point five k
• 12:18
  I'm taking it. But uh and I, I mean, I think he's
• 12:22
  in play for that type of style against a lot of people. But Lima
• 12:28
  is a good kickboxer. He's gonna be a lot harder to hit on the
• 12:31
  feet. He's gonna have power of his own that Severino's gonna have to watch
• 12:35
  for. So I think if this fight takes place at range, it's gonna
• 12:37
  be Lima's fight. But he's gonna need a knockout to pay off a nine
• 12:41
  K salary in a fight that's at range. I also think Lima could get
• 12:46
  a couple of takedowns of his own, but he does have power with his
• 12:50
  punches and his kicks, and Severno's aggressive, so I think the knockouts in
• 12:54
  play on this one. But my preferred play is gonna be Severino. I
• 12:58
  just I love the pressure. I think if he can get this more of
• 13:00
  a dirty striking fight, get on the inside, he could even win that
• 13:03
  type of fight. But it's the takedowns that's way for me. If he
• 13:05
  can just go in there and wrestle this guy or really clinch up against the
• 13:09
  cage, do some dirty work there, I think this is closer to a
• 13:13
  pick and fight. So Severino is my pick. If sever Reno wins,
• 13:16
  I feel confident he's gonna score more than ten X, whereas if Lima wins,
• 13:22
  even ten X is tough. So I'll be underweight on on Lima,
• 13:24
  but I'll still get some exposure there, and then Severino's a guy that I
• 13:28
  want to be overweight on. But I like a handful of underdogs on this
• 13:31
  card. Yeah, I definitely am not worried about like stacking, I think
• 13:35
  is one of the worst things you can do on this card, I am
• 13:37
  not worried about what dogs come through. I'll be mixing and matching plenty of
• 13:41
  them. There's so many closely line fights or you're gonna see plenty of plus
• 13:45
  money people come through. I like I will say, I think I like
• 13:48
  Lima a little more than you. I do like Severino. He is my
• 13:52
  preferred play with the savings eighteen hundred like and might sound crazy to you.
• 13:56
  You can build a line up plug and Lima, take Lima out and go
• 14:00
  several Reno. He's not that big of a dog. He just says that
• 14:03
  much upside. You can do that pretty much every single What have we got
• 14:07
  the biggest one ninety four hundred Carl Williams or ninety three hundred Carl Williams,
• 14:13
  and then we got Tafa at sixty nine hundred. You can leave twenty four
• 14:16
  hundred. Tafa is first round. He has one minute bonus knockout power.
• 14:20
  Actually, so first round knockout Carl Williams, take him out, Go Tafa.
• 14:26
  You're leaving twenty four hundred. That means the show is that you can
• 14:28
  definitely leave thousands on the table on this card. But yeah, just back
• 14:31
  to it. I have a little more interest in Andre Lima than you,
• 14:35
  just because his ownership has to be capped to an extent because the people,
• 14:39
  the main people. People will play above nine k Carl Williams for the wrestling
• 14:43
  upside and Rose for the main five round main event favorites. I think or
• 14:50
  Lima probably is like twenty eight to twenty five percent owned. It's relatively low
• 14:54
  when you know Rose and Carl Williams are gonna be forty plus percent own,
• 14:58
  high pay fights favor to finish. I do like Leam, I think a
• 15:01
  little more than you, but I like Savarino as well. So great fights
• 15:05
  to target one of my favorites on the card to watch and to play in
• 15:09
  DFS. Keep it going. Next fights on the card we have very low,
• 15:16
  pretty low on fight on this card. One. I'm definitely interested in
• 15:20
  your take. Dirus zala Kova taking on Monserrat Rendon Zalakhova minus two ten Rendon
• 15:26
  plus one eighty. This fights plus one eighty to finish most of the finishing
• 15:31
  equity on the Zalankova side at plus two ten Rendon plus eight hundred. We
• 15:37
  have Zalakova making her UFC debut, Rendon making her second walk Clear's day baby
• 15:45
  clash of styles. Zalakova wants to keep it on the feet, looks to
• 15:48
  have pretty solid hands. Rendon does not look to have solid hand, but
• 15:52
  she wants to wrestle. Had success in her debut against vital put up ninety
• 15:56
  DK points. I take ninety DK points out of very low owned. Rendon
• 16:00
  is the biggest dog on the card right now. And again like, I'm
• 16:03
  not even fading this fight. This is not my other fade because last styles
• 16:08
  are very intriguing to me. Zella Kova's got some hands, Like I think
• 16:12
  a knockout is in play. I don't bank on knockouts for light woman's lighter
• 16:18
  divisions more times than not, but she has pop. I don't know if
• 16:21
  Rendont can take it all fifteen minutes, if Zalekova can stuff takedowns and who
• 16:26
  knows on the other side, Rendaon't will be low owned. The path of
• 16:27
  victory is takedowns, control time, etc. It's a woman's mma, man,
• 16:33
  you could get a ninety one hundred out of nowhere from Rendeau. People
• 16:37
  will be tilting, She'll be low owned. She has upside though, there's
• 16:40
  a path, So yeah, I like this fight. What about you.
• 16:42
  I'm on Zelkova side, though I think she I think her hands are too
• 16:45
  much. Yeah, I actually don't like this fight. It's going to be
• 16:48
  a fade for me, all right. But I think you can make a
• 16:53
  case for both sides. The the Zella Khova, whatever you want to call
• 16:59
  her. She is the better striker, the much quicker striker, the more
• 17:03
  dangerous striker in this one, and she will be low owned. She's plus
• 17:06
  two ten to win inside the distance, which which is pretty solid. That's
• 17:11
  a thirty two and a half or close to thirty two and a half percent
• 17:14
  chance of finishing the fight, and if she's she's probably gonna be less than
• 17:18
  half of that in ownership. So I feel like you can make a case
• 17:22
  for her finishing this fight because she does have a decent striking edge. And
• 17:26
  then you made the case for Rendon. She needs to get the fight to
• 17:30
  the ground. She scored ninety in her first fight getting the fight to the
• 17:33
  ground. But my issue is that all three of her takedowns in that fight
• 17:38
  came off of catching lake kicks. She caught three of Vital's forty seven lake
• 17:45
  kicks, and she got takedowns on three of them. She had no real
• 17:49
  wrestling attempts on this one, and I don't think this Zeleasnikova needs to throw
• 17:55
  that many late kicks. She's got a big advantage just with her hands alone,
• 17:57
  So if she can just not throw kicks, keep this fight on the
• 18:00
  feet. I think she wins a striking base decision and scores less than ten
• 18:06
  X. So that's what I'm hoping for. And I'm just gonna fade this
• 18:08
  fight hoping that that's the case because I feel like they'll get enough ownership where
• 18:12
  I'd rather get leveraged to other people rather than taking my chances on this fight.
• 18:17
  And I just feel like more times than not, z Lesnikova wins a
• 18:21
  decision or wins without scoring ninety plus points in this one. And I don't
• 18:25
  like Rendon as much as the field's gonna lent her. Yeah sounds good.
• 18:29
  I'll say what we have Brendon at fourteen percent? Yeah, that makes sense.
• 18:33
  I mean, so ownership is going to be spread out on this card
• 18:37
  for sure. And if here's so, like I said, if I'm playing
• 18:38
  one fifty, I will have I will not exce out any fighter before doing
• 18:44
  my builds, which shows like it's tough fades are very tough for me.
• 18:48
  In my opinion. I like the fade in the first fight. Marley likes
• 18:52
  this fade, and I will just get right into this next one. Steven
• 18:56
  win. Jarno erins it says the other faith for me. Minus one eighty
• 18:59
  five is is win plus one sixty is Errans fights plus one ten to finish
• 19:03
  win plus two forty Aarons plus three hundred, so you I mean, And
• 19:07
  then it's also the most Steven wins, the highest priced fighter on the card.
• 19:12
  Aarons is the lowest ninety four hundred and sixty eight hundred. This will
• 19:15
  be the lowest total ownership fight on the card. I don't even think it's
• 19:19
  going to be close. So plus one ten to finish, that's pretty much
• 19:23
  a coin flip. Plus two forty inside the distance isn't bad. Plus three
• 19:27
  hundred inside the distance, That sixty eight hundred definitely isn't bad, especially when
• 19:32
  you're saying he's only plus one sixty he's gonna be low owned. This is
• 19:36
  kind of what I'm saying. If I'm playing a bunch of teams, I'm
• 19:37
  fine having Aaron's in there. I'm fine having Win in there. They both
• 19:41
  have a path. Now when I playing twenty teams and want to make cuts
• 19:45
  and limit my player pool, Jano Aarons has looked bad in the UFC so
• 19:48
  far. Steven win. He looks like he has solid volume, like he
• 19:53
  can put up some numbers, but man, like even a third round knockout,
• 19:57
  he's ninety four hundred. Comparing him to everyone in that range, even
• 20:03
  a hundred might be enough, and I think a hundred's not gonna say that's
• 20:06
  a ceiling, but that's definitely a very good outcome for whin who is This
• 20:10
  fight's favored to go over two and a half rounds, not the biggest knockout
• 20:15
  power does have solid volume. Yeah, I mean at the end of the
• 20:18
  day, I'm fade in this fight and twenty and below its low owned.
• 20:21
  Do you want to play it for that reason? I don't think it's crazy,
• 20:23
  but yeah, not for me. What about you? Yeah, I'm
• 20:26
  gonna fade this fight as well. I think new End wins the fight.
• 20:30
  He can't put up good volume, he'll be lowaned, maybe get a TKO
• 20:34
  along the way, and that would be the case for playing him. But
• 20:38
  I feel like Aaron's is the more dangerous fighter of the two. I just
• 20:44
  don't think he has any real chance to be the minute winner in this one.
• 20:47
  So he's relying on that quick choke or quick knockout, and I just
• 20:49
  don't think it's very likely. If I had to play one, I guess
• 20:52
  I'd rather take the underdog. But I just I like too many other underdogs
• 20:56
  on this car. So I'm just gonna ex both of these guys out.
• 20:59
  Hope that a new win scores eighty points in a win. Sorry I was,
• 21:06
  I was looking at other stuff. Yeah, win and win as you
• 21:08
  were making me laugh. Yeah, I hope he scores. Hope he scores
• 21:11
  seventy points in a win as well. Not much really more to add in
• 21:15
  that fight. Not a hot take by either of us. Again, the
• 21:18
  lowest combined ownership on the card I think will be that fights. But ownership
• 21:23
  ownership matters for sure on this card, but it doesn't matter as much as
• 21:27
  some others. With just a very unique DFS card. We have no favorites
• 21:32
  above minus two fifteen thirteen fights. Don't see that every day. It's going
• 21:36
  on, Jacob Stubbs. Awesome to see in the discord as well. This
• 21:40
  morning, Marque going on good Beatay, Happy birthday, Marquee. Hope you
• 21:44
  have a great day. Hope you have a good weekend. And Jacob,
• 21:47
  I saw you signed up. I do hope you use that promo code who
• 21:49
  fifteen. Anyone out there looking to joint chipinnation dot com, we want to
• 21:53
  just give it a try for a week. Check out what we have.
• 21:56
  We don't have discord for weekly packages just content on the site, but monthly,
• 22:00
  six month annual packages do include the discord. Use that promo code Hoop
• 22:06
  fifteen to get in for fifteen percent off. MMBA projections and ownership are up
• 22:11
  on the site right now, so if you are a member, head over
• 22:14
  open that tab you can follow along when we're going through. Everything else will
• 22:18
  be up shortly after this show. Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on
• 22:22
  the card. I'm excited for this one. DFS wise, I'm kind of
• 22:26
  torn though. Miles Johns Cody Gibson eighty two hundred John's eight thousand is Cody
• 22:32
  Gibson looking at the odds Johns minus one thirty seven, Cody Gibson plus one
• 22:37
  seventeen sites plus one twenty to finish, Miles Johns plus two to twenty five
• 22:42
  inside the distance Cody Gibson plus three sixty five. I'll I'm gonna say the
• 22:49
  ownership in this one. I was going back and forth. So the cheaper
• 22:52
  fighter and the dog Cody Gibson. We have at nineteen percent, the favorite
• 22:56
  Miles John's at eighty two percent. We have at fifteen percent. And I
• 23:00
  do think that's right. I think the dog, Cody Gibson does get more
• 23:03
  ownership because people are just I mean that last fight against Brad Katona, Cody
• 23:07
  Gibson put on a very very fun performance. He showed that he has a
• 23:11
  ton of volume. I mean, he's got a very good chin. He
• 23:15
  does something, whereas Miles Johns has been lower volume. Both guys who have
• 23:18
  a wrestling background. I'm curious to see how you see if you see either
• 23:22
  guy going for us fensa takedowns. John's is the more heavy handed guy.
• 23:26
  I like the leg kicks. He slows down as the fight goes on.
• 23:30
  He at least he has in the past. Cody Gibson only gets better.
• 23:33
  It's a good fight for sure, real life fight for sure. I'm on
• 23:37
  Myles john side, and I do love seeing a lot of people I gives
• 23:40
  him and thinking he'll be a little higher owned and I'm not even gonna I
• 23:44
  think Johns can knock him out. I think the leg kicks can hurt him
• 23:47
  early, stifle some of the movement. John's does have power. Gibson has
• 23:51
  a good chin, but man, he got rot to plenty by Katona.
• 23:53
  It only takes one. I mean we saw Dover. You have a chin
• 23:57
  until you don't, etc. Not saying he does have a chin, but
• 24:00
  he got Colcock by Farvola when people thought he was invincible. John's decision or
• 24:06
  finish. But I'm on the john side in this one, and I do
• 24:07
  think he will be lower on the Gibson. How do you see it going?
• 24:11
  Yeah, I'm on the other side of this one. I like the
• 24:14
  underdog and Gibson. I mean, just with the pace alone. In that
• 24:17
  last fight he landed like one hundred and sixty four strikes in three rounds.
• 24:22
  I don't think John's can do that. I don't think that's in his game.
• 24:25
  And he's taking this fight on short notice. So I just think that
• 24:29
  the longer this goes, the more he's gonna start slowing down and Gibson can
• 24:32
  pick up the pace. And if Gibson I mean, if Gibson won that
• 24:34
  fight, he was scored ninety seven points. That's that's solid. John's has
• 24:38
  never scored ninety seven points. The most John's ever scored is eighty seven.
• 24:42
  But a John's, Yeah, this week, I'm trying to talk myself into
• 24:53
  fading Johns, to be honest with you, eighty two hundred though, I
• 24:56
  mean even a second round knockout he can get there with though, But I
• 25:00
  mean he averages seventy points in his wins. He's the better wrestler of the
• 25:06
  two, but he doesn't wrestle. He just landed a career best two takedowns
• 25:08
  in his last fight, so I don't trust his wrestling pace. He's got
• 25:12
  knockout power, but he just doesn't throw enough punches for me to rely on
• 25:15
  him knocking Gibson out. So I like the underdog to just kind of drown
• 25:19
  him with the pace, maybe finish them late. Gibson could mixing takedowns too.
• 25:25
  He took down Sterling like three times way back in the day, but
• 25:27
  still Sterling that's a freaking investment. I don't know that John's is taking down
• 25:32
  Sterling, So I think there's just more ways for Gibson to score well.
• 25:36
  I trust his pace a lot more, and John's is a fighter who I
• 25:37
  really try to avoid, like a long term fade on DraftKings for me,
• 25:42
  just based on pace alone. I hate these guys who waste too much cage
• 25:45
  time and you don't use your best assets, which for him would really be
• 25:49
  his wrestling in my opinion. So I'm gonna fade the short notice guy.
• 25:53
  Give me overweight on Gibson, maybe fully fading John's, but underweight for sure.
• 25:59
  Yeah, I didn't makes sense. I think it'll be a good fight.
• 26:00
  Why, Like John's a's gonna be low owned. I think Gibson because
• 26:06
  fading John's historically has been definitely good in DraftKings, but I think Gibson will
• 26:08
  make it kind of like we'll get to the Billy cuz the Wall fight the
• 26:12
  laws Andy has been pretty boring at dfs too, But the opponent is just
• 26:17
  if they're in your face, bringing the pace, the pressure, you gotta
• 26:18
  land something. Ill fight now won't be enough to be optimal, probably not
• 26:23
  if it goes all three rounds, especially on the John side, like you
• 26:26
  might need a Johns finish probably to be optimal. Plus two twenty five inside
• 26:32
  the distance isn't bad fifteen percent. I'm taking Johnson win. Good fight,
• 26:37
  though Rigatoni likes violence in that one. Gibson to break them. What's going
• 26:41
  on, man, I hope you're doing well. We'll keep it rolling.
• 26:42
  Plenty of fights still left to talk about it. Actually, let me refresh
• 26:45
  way ins When I look before everyone made weights thus far, that walked.
• 26:52
  Yeah, everyone's made weight thus far and only Shambazian and Dobson are still the
• 26:57
  walk is how I'm seeing it. So yep, Paul, looks like we
• 27:00
  should have all thirteen fights, which is big. Next fight, all baby,
• 27:04
  this one's gonna be fun. My favorite on the night. That actually
• 27:08
  probably not a hot take though. The most likely to finish Ricardo Homos Julian
• 27:12
  Rosa eighty nine hundred is Homos seventy three hundred is Arosa minus two fifteen for
• 27:19
  this fight to excuse me to finish, we have Ramos plus one to twenty
• 27:25
  inside the distance Erosa plus two to twenty five. All right, man,
• 27:30
  is Arosa gonna get cold cocked, go to sleep or see actually not gonna
• 27:36
  go to sleep and then win this fight as a dog because this line's crazy.
• 27:40
  If if you tell me doesn't get knocked out. I like Ramos.
• 27:41
  I like this fight. In general, most of my lineups will have one
• 27:45
  of this fight. I'm not making any rules on the card, but man
• 27:48
  like the pace in this fight, how Arosa fights, the volume and just
• 27:52
  his chindy and that bad Ramos. I think it Nixon some takedowns, juicyj
• 27:57
  gets back up like high scrambles. Fun fights. Can Rosa stand fifteen minutes
• 28:03
  though? That's the real question I got for you. Yeah, I would
• 28:07
  like to know that as well. But definitely one of the top fights,
• 28:11
  top two fights on the card in my opinion, because of the pace Erosa
• 28:15
  sets. Like all of his fights are high scoring. When Eroso wins,
• 28:21
  he averages one hundred and four and a half points, and that's that's a
• 28:25
  lie for every one of his fights. He could win this fight by any
• 28:26
  method. I would say that Ramos has more power. Ramos maybe the better
• 28:33
  overall grappler, but Ramos got submitted by a striker in his last fight in
• 28:38
  Crazy, and Erosa is twelve and zero to the submission, so a grappling
• 28:41
  match would be fun. I'm not really sure who would win that, but
• 28:45
  I do feel like Ramos is more likely to land takedowns on this one and
• 28:48
  then the chin on Erosa. I mean, this guy's been knocked out eight
• 28:51
  times. That's a lot, So I mean, I just don't trust a
• 28:56
  lot in his last two fights. I mean, the guys that knocked him
• 28:59
  out aren't really knocking out out punchers like they don't have they're not power strikers,
• 29:02
  and they still knock this guy out. So the same kind of goes
• 29:06
  for Ramos. He's not a power striker, but he throws some awkward stuff.
• 29:10
  Maybe he could land a spinning elbow or something like that. One spinning
• 29:12
  elbow probably puts Eurosa to sleep for a while, So I'm gonna take Ramos
• 29:18
  to win by knockout. The worry would be that Ramos wins a decision though,
• 29:22
  and doesn't mix in more than like two or three takedowns in this fight
• 29:25
  at eighty nine hundred, I don't know that he makes the optimal in that
• 29:29
  win. But on the Erosa side, any win from Erosa's probably going to
• 29:33
  be on the optimal lineup, so I won't leverage on both sides of this
• 29:37
  fight. Ideally, if I was just making one lineup on the whole card,
• 29:40
  though, I'd go with Ramos. You remember that at Danny Chava spinning
• 29:45
  back of a knockout of Ramos. We be back and watching it. Dude,
• 29:48
  that was right in front of me. That was Austin, Texas.
• 29:49
  That was literally directly Oh my gosh, Javes was out for minutes. It
• 29:55
  was one of the scariest knockouts, just right on all my he is spinning
• 30:00
  elbow techniques Fiez Rosa with one of those puppies. Yeah, he's Rosa is
• 30:03
  gonna be out for probably more than a couple of minutes. Unfortunately, You're
• 30:08
  right, this is this is the hardest card I played. This is Yeah,
• 30:12
  it's a good heart because you know, you know, you can make
• 30:17
  a lot of very good lineups and still not be holding hands with a million
• 30:19
  people. The worst lineups are like ten fight cards that looks really easy,
• 30:23
  but if you win, you're gonna be chopping a million ways. It's a
• 30:26
  great card that way, where chops shouldn't be much. But yeah, I
• 30:30
  mean trying to get six winners, trying to get the optimal for scores like
• 30:33
  that part is really really hard on this card. So yeah, it's definitely
• 30:38
  tough. I know she's put in our discord yesterday, and I asked him
• 30:42
  a follow up question, like he doesn't think anyone's gonna hit the optimal in
• 30:45
  the flagship. I asked him what odds are there? Because I think he's
• 30:48
  right. More likely than not, no one's gonna have the true optimal.
• 30:53
  But I wonder what odds and if anyone in here has a good guest to
• 30:56
  set that out. I'm very curious to hear that you have any thoughts on
• 31:00
  that, Big Marley. Yeah, that's tough. I don't really know how
• 31:03
  to handicap that, but I would say I got like thirty five percent.
• 31:07
  Someone's going to get a sixty five not but I'm spitballing off the brain.
• 31:11
  No analytics behind that. Yeah, I feel like thirty I feel like I
• 31:17
  would take the over thirty five percent of someone hitting the nuts. Yeah,
• 31:19
  it's tough, though, I mean it depends on how much is the salaries
• 31:22
  left on the table, That's what I mean. It's so viable that a
• 31:26
  three K winner could be and like, and most people are to do that,
• 31:30
  usually exciting myself. I almost never leave three k, Like fifteen hundred
• 31:33
  is a sweet spot, I would say for me when I sat like my
• 31:38
  Yeah, my minimum on the solver is usually like fifteen hundred on the table.
• 31:42
  This week I might be okay with like three k or something like that.
• 31:45
  I might not even set it to be honest, and just let it
• 31:48
  roll. Uh. Yeah. I've also been I don't know what I'm gonna
• 31:52
  do on this guy. I've been thinking maybe I'll do between thirty one hundred
• 31:56
  and fifty lineups. I'm really I have no idea. I don't know either
• 32:00
  in the middle. But I've been working on like seventy five builds and it's's
• 32:04
  not getting there for me. So I think I'm gonna have to bump it
• 32:07
  up. See what one fifty looks like. I'll be doing that after the
• 32:08
  show. But you guys can hit me up in discord with any questions on
• 32:12
  my overall lineups tomorrow on fight day. Yeah, just overall, this is
• 32:16
  gonna be one of the best fights to target. I want this in.
• 32:20
  I would say at least three fourths of my total line ups. I like
• 32:23
  it. I love it. Yeah, talk to a little broad slid.
• 32:25
  I don't even know. We'll see how much time I have tomorrow, very
• 32:29
  busy day. I head I'll be playing some Linus for sure. Do I
• 32:32
  have one to fifty. We'll see the three dollars one fifty max still up.
• 32:36
  There always a good contest next fight on the card. It's still plenty
• 32:39
  left to talk about. One of the best fights to target on the card
• 32:42
  to a very interesting fight. I have interest on one side, not really
• 32:46
  the other side. Trey Ogden Kurt Hollibau eighty or Ogden minus one forty five
• 32:52
  Halliba plus one twenty five. This fights plus one oh five to finish the
• 32:58
  dog, and Hallibah is a better more likely to finish at plus two hundred
• 33:01
  inside the distance compared to Ogden at plus three fifty. And yeah, I
• 33:06
  mean I'm on the Kurt side to win this fight. I'm on the Kurt
• 33:09
  side more importantly to play in DFS because he actually does something. Trey Ogden
• 33:15
  is notorious for not doing shit. Now he wins. I mean he got
• 33:20
  robbed, all right. Let's say that he'd beat he beating Nicholas Mada a
• 33:22
  pillar to post from the beginning to the end. The ref absolutely screwed him.
• 33:27
  It would have been. He was a dog in that one that I
• 33:30
  had decent on exposure to. That was a very tilting. I think I
• 33:32
  had a tile lineup with him in that book. That's that's for another day,
• 33:37
  but minus one forty five for Ogden, like he needs to get takedowns
• 33:42
  in control time to be optimal. I mean how much control time? How
• 33:46
  much is he gonna be safe on top against Hollibo. He's a good grappler,
• 33:50
  for sure, is Ogden. All of his wins submission all he has.
• 33:52
  All his finish wins have come by submission eleven to the sixteen. He
• 33:55
  has no knockout wins, but man Kirk can can grab ten of his twenty
• 34:00
  wins. I sub seven by ko tricky black belt just submitted Austin Hubbard to
• 34:06
  get the other contract, his second UFC stint. Give me the guy that's
• 34:09
  more dangerous, that'll walk forward. I think he's the better striker. I
• 34:13
  think he throws more volume. He just has more pass at seventy seven hundred
• 34:16
  eighty five hundred. He's gonna be low on as Trey acting, but he
• 34:22
  just doesn't have the upside. I don't think so. Yeah. Right now
• 34:25
  I have him as a fit or has him as underweight, because I think
• 34:29
  he's gonna be low owned. He just talked me into a fade though.
• 34:31
  Should I had one of these parking ousmans and just fade fade him completely?
• 34:37
  Yeah? I think so, I'm gonna fade Ogden. He's coming off his
• 34:40
  career best performance. Had you got to finish, he would have scored like
• 34:44
  ninety points or something. I think, so that solid. I'm taking ninety
• 34:49
  nine. But that's against the guy who doesn't know how to grapple. Kurt
• 34:52
  Calibum knows how to grapple. And then in his win before that sixty five
• 34:57
  points. Let's give him. I'm uh, let's somehow give him the win.
• 35:01
  After that, he would scored forty seven points like this. Yeah,
• 35:05
  he just doesn't do enough. I think Hollibaugh's the more active striker. Halliball
• 35:09
  definitely has more punching power, and I think Halliball is the better wrestler of
• 35:14
  the two. Also, they're both solid grapplers, but Ogden has been submitted
• 35:17
  three times already, so I favor Hallibah on this one. The only thing
• 35:22
  I don't like about him is his age. He's got He's like thirty seven,
• 35:24
  thirty eight years old now he's getting up there, but Ogden's like thirty
• 35:29
  five, thirty six years old too. He's getting up there as well,
• 35:31
  so it's not that much of a benefit for the Ogden side. I think
• 35:35
  he's riding high right now off of his last performance based on these odds,
• 35:39
  and I just think it's recency bias. Give me the underdog. I'll be
• 35:43
  overweight to Hallibah, and I'm gonna fade Ogden if Ogden wins, I don't
• 35:46
  think he's scoring to next. Yeah, I think I'm still gonna keep it
• 35:50
  because I like the two fight fades I have and then like ogdd. Why
• 35:53
  I think Ogden's fine in this is he's gonna be low owned and this fight
• 35:58
  could play take place on the mat like ten to fifteen minutes or eleven to
• 36:01
  fifteen minutes, both guys black belts, both guys comfortable on the mat,
• 36:06
  like you could get some reversals top control, like just some random points on
• 36:10
  the mats that add up. So I'll keep him in there for that and
• 36:14
  just say maybe he is, how about his fine off of his back and
• 36:16
  Ogden just stay safe Lanso strikes, I don't know. I mean he's gonna
• 36:22
  be low on. When I'm trying to talk myself into something, I don't
• 36:24
  like Usman Parkin and I don't like win Errands. I'm gonna keep Ogden underweight
• 36:30
  now, but in general, if you want a fifth fade, it would
• 36:31
  definitely be Tray Ogden. It's my fifth fade on the card. But yeah,
• 36:36
  we're both on Kurt side. DFS as a pick et cetera. Love
• 36:39
  to see that. Let's get going. Next fight on the card, and
• 36:44
  this one should be pretty fun. Fernando Padilla Luis Paeo minus one seventy plus
• 36:49
  one forty five is Paeo minus one eighty for this fight to finish Padilla plus
• 36:53
  one thirty inside the distance Playo plus two fifty. I'll throw it too right
• 36:59
  away. This is one of the most likely fights to finish on the card.
• 37:01
  I'll throw it to you because you mentioned that without saying the name Fernando
• 37:06
  Padilla a couple of fights ago. When you're talking Juicy j right when you're
• 37:09
  talking about Juicy gate Jay getting knocked out by something without that much pop,
• 37:14
  I think you were talking about Fernando Piddia. Yeah, take this fight away.
• 37:19
  I'm expecting a fun fight. Yeah, I mean, Padia's got a
• 37:22
  lot of finishes, like he's got a lot of knockouts, but I just
• 37:24
  don't think he's a power puncher. He's more of a guy who's gonna jab
• 37:28
  you up, tap you up until you can't take it any more type of
• 37:30
  thing. We're on the other side, Pujuelo is a guy who's trying to
• 37:34
  take your head off. Every single time he's throwing a punch. He's trying
• 37:36
  to hurt you, uh, and he's pretty aggressive with it as well.
• 37:39
  I also think he has much worse striking defense. He also doesn't eat shots
• 37:44
  well. He covers up and goes against the cage, which I'm never a
• 37:46
  big fan of. I think Padia can get off with the striking there,
• 37:50
  So I just think we're gonna need a finish from either one of these guys
• 37:53
  to have one hundred point potential. Padillas are more likely wrestler, more in
• 37:59
  our better grapple of the two, but I don't really see him going for
• 38:01
  any takedown attempts here, So I think he's probably gonna win a striking match,
• 38:07
  and if it's a decision, I don't think he's gonna score over ten
• 38:10
  X. If he can put up volume and then get a TKO, then
• 38:14
  we're talking. Then we have one hundred plus point upside, and I do
• 38:16
  want some Padia exposure for that reason. And then on the other end,
• 38:21
  Pouelo is gonna be aggressive, He's gonna be throwing heavy, He's gonna be
• 38:23
  throwing a lot. So I think if he is able to win even a
• 38:25
  decision, he probably is flirting with ten X, but he has knockout upside
• 38:30
  where he could score one hundred points that way. I don't know what to
• 38:35
  do with this fight. This is one where I'm just gonna like, let
• 38:37
  the solver or do its thing. I'll put projections in and I think I
• 38:39
  said in my in the fight rankings, I'd be fine with anywhere from twenty
• 38:44
  to forty percent, maybe even fifteen to forty five percent. Padia, like,
• 38:49
  I'm fine with any of that. Whereas Pajuelo, I like him.
• 38:52
  I want some exposure, but I like other dogs more so. I probably
• 38:57
  just end up around field weight, make sure I don't get burned, but
• 39:00
  I don't want too much leverage there. I want other spots to be my
• 39:02
  lever spot. So give me Padilla to win a unanimous decision, probably score
• 39:09
  eighty points something good. Yeah, I don't have too much more to that.
• 39:14
  It's not a fight that I'm like. I like the homos Erosa fighte
• 39:17
  way way more. I'm not making any rules on this card, but it
• 39:22
  is one of the most likely fights to finish. Paelo's style looks to just
• 39:24
  be potting forward. I'll throw a lot of volume. I'll make it a
• 39:28
  fun fight. We do have the smaller octagon at the APEX. Like,
• 39:31
  I think Padilla is a more skilled fighter. I prefer Padilla, even with
• 39:36
  him being more expensive. I don't expect really takedowns, but man, I
• 39:39
  think he can counter punch and kets. But pael at some point with some
• 39:44
  shot, I agree. If it goes a decision, I don't think you
• 39:45
  want it. Both guys are going to get some ownership in it. Yeah,
• 39:50
  maybe it's just more of a round the field slightly overweight to Padilla at
• 39:54
  the end of the day. If I love my script, like I like
• 39:58
  how everything else is, and I had forty percent or twenty percent PA,
• 40:01
  I think I'd be fine with it and just go from there. Kind of
• 40:05
  what you're saying. It's not a fight that I want to make or break
• 40:07
  my nights, because yeah, I think it'll be a if it finishes,
• 40:12
  I think someone's gonna be on the optimal. I guess that's not really hot
• 40:14
  take when I say it out loud, sounds pretty dumb. If it finishes,
• 40:16
  will be optimal, but Peo style, like I think Padilla can get
• 40:21
  off on him and then maybe mixing takedowns if he has getting over aggressive something
• 40:24
  like that. So yeah, give you the Padilla side. Definitely will be
• 40:28
  playing to Paheo as a dog though. Five fights left on this card.
• 40:32
  Again, appreciate ever hanging out like button if you haven't already, helps us
• 40:36
  out a ton, watching live, watching the playback. Hope y'all doing well.
• 40:39
  Huge weekend MMA, marsh Madness, NHL, MLB will be next weekend,
• 40:46
  NBA, NASCAR, Come on man, PGA show Down. Plenty of
• 40:51
  money to be made there. Head over shippingnation dot com. Get in the
• 40:53
  discord, make sure you use that promo code Hoop fifteen gets you fifteen percent
• 40:59
  off. Five fights left, Five pretty solid fights for a fight night all
• 41:05
  and I say these are pretty solid fights. This one for sure right here,
• 41:07
  Billy quarantine use of zilal minus all right, seen a lot of line
• 41:13
  movement in this one, depending on the book. I always go from bed
• 41:15
  online, bet on minu fight odds, do io use of za Wall is
• 41:20
  now the small favorite at minus one fifteen billy Q minus one oh five.
• 41:24
  You go and look at some other books like Fandle minus one twenty two billy
• 41:28
  Q plus or plus one hundred z Law. Always make sure the line shop
• 41:32
  for sure. Moral of the story is billy Q opened minus three hundred even
• 41:37
  earlier this week a couple of days ago minus one sixty, A lot of
• 41:40
  money coming in on the Zilaal side plus one eighty five to finish billy Q
• 41:45
  plus three twenty five Zaalul plus four hundred. All right, Big Marley,
• 41:50
  I need you to help me because I had billy Q overweight Zalal underweight.
• 41:54
  I still want to keep it like that because the wall is gonna be one
• 41:58
  of the most popular underdogs on the sleigh now. I think like he's a
• 42:00
  favorite at seventy six hundred. If the line even goes wider, people will
• 42:05
  always go there. He's a great real life fighter, but he hasn't scored
• 42:08
  great in dfs. He can be low volume. I do think he has
• 42:12
  takedown upside in this fight against billy Q, though, and billy Q.
• 42:15
  I don't think it's just gonna stay on his back all round. So as
• 42:19
  the Lull can chain takedowns, there's upside there. I mean billy Q,
• 42:22
  I don't really need to say anything, like all billy Q fights are fun.
• 42:25
  The dude throws a ton of volume. He's in your face, he
• 42:28
  wants to break you. If he wins, he has big upside in decision
• 42:31
  in a finish, whatever it may be. So I'll always play some billy
• 42:35
  Q. He's going to be lower owned than he usually is, and now
• 42:38
  we get some leverage off as a lall who will be popular. I'm on
• 42:43
  the billy Q side in DFS more so just game theory. How he scores
• 42:47
  can totally make cases versus the LULL, But I think I still want to
• 42:51
  be underweight as him as one of the most popular dogs. We have thirty
• 42:53
  percent as the second highest owned dog behind Kee Boss, and I wouldn't even
• 42:58
  be surprised if he was the highest own dog, especially if the line movement
• 43:01
  keeps going his way. So yeah, I'd just rather take some shots,
• 43:05
  I guess on these other dogs thirteen fights, plenty of them are alive.
• 43:08
  That's how I see it. Right now. But yeah, told me always
• 43:13
  twenty percent. Maybe it's a little different question. I'll throw it to you
• 43:15
  on this one though, take it away. Yeah, I mean this actually
• 43:21
  DraftKings wise, this reminds me of two fights last weekend. The Amram,
• 43:25
  the Amram whatever her name is over to Kenna. McKenna's line shot up from
• 43:30
  like pick them to minus one seventy five, and I was like, well,
• 43:34
  let me just take the other side. I like Amram a lot more
• 43:36
  now. The other one was piel hoe versus Osborne. Piel Hooe was the
• 43:40
  one that was needed again and this, I feel like Quarantino should be the
• 43:44
  favorite here. And he's also a great DraftKings scorer. He averages one hundred
• 43:49
  and thirteen points in his wins and he can set a pace for a full
• 43:54
  three rounds. He's a slow starter, so I think that could be a
• 43:59
  worry, but we're in the small cage. I think either of these guys
• 44:04
  could mix in takedowns. But I just think that Quarantio does a lot more
• 44:08
  with his takedowns. He'll threaten for more submissions. I think he'll land a
• 44:12
  lot more strikes on the ground. And Zilial has this lateral movement that's really
• 44:16
  tricky to get a hold of, and you can't really land volume against Zilial
• 44:22
  on the feet like we would want Quarantio to do, so I don't think
• 44:24
  a striking match would be what we want here, But if he can limit
• 44:29
  the lateral movement by taking him down, I think that Quarantio could win all
• 44:32
  three rounds on the wrestling department here. But it's just a pace from him
• 44:36
  that I love. He'll pick it up as the fight moves along, and
• 44:39
  he has one hundred and thirty point potential. I don't think that this is
• 44:43
  the fight to get that, but I do think he has one of the
• 44:45
  higher ceilings on the card still. And then Zilal, I do think he's
• 44:49
  a live underdog. It's a really close fight here. He could win all
• 44:52
  three rounds. He could mix in takedowns too, but I don't see him
• 44:54
  having a ton of volume, and I think he's more likely to score,
• 45:00
  you know, around ten x. If he does get a win here,
• 45:01
  maybe the pressure from Quarantier makes it makes him pick it up a little bit
• 45:05
  more and we have possible like eighty five ninety point upside from Zilal. But
• 45:09
  the new ownership takes me off of him. I'm gonna be probably half the
• 45:14
  field, maybe even less on the Zilu side, and now I might even
• 45:16
  double up the field on the quarantio side. So I love the line movement.
• 45:21
  I think it's brought some value on the betting side as well. So
• 45:24
  yeah, All on the quarantio one for me, I like it. I
• 45:28
  like hearing that for sure, because mine went to the game Theory DFS side.
• 45:31
  He just said it at the end. I was already on the Billy
• 45:34
  qu side just because in DFS, just because how we fights, there's all
• 45:37
  all side. It makes sense, like Billy Q high pay, so All
• 45:42
  will have to do more than he usually does in other fights to get it.
• 45:45
  But as the second most popular dog, like that's not a hot take
• 45:47
  by any means. I think his ownership will be a lot of it because
• 45:51
  of the money line movements. And at the end of the day, there's
• 45:53
  thirteen fights and plus one eighty is the biggest dog. If any of these
• 45:58
  dogs can win, the big Boy scores all wins and get you seventy five
• 46:02
  to thirty percent, you want none, like absolutely zero of it. So
• 46:06
  yeah, I'm gonna be underweight as game theory. For sure a popular dog
• 46:09
  because the line movement still pick them. Yeah, I mean it feels pretty
• 46:14
  obvious to me. Billy Q side Preferman dfs, I'll be underweight to the
• 46:17
  loll but again I'm not axing him out. Like still a very good fighter.
• 46:22
  Billy Q will push the pace. There is aloud said he's on the
• 46:24
  optimal, but he's thirty percent. That's also why four fights left very curious
• 46:30
  to hear this one Peyton Talbot Cameron Simon minus one forty Talbot plus one twenty
• 46:35
  is Cameron Simon fight to finish plus one thirty five Talbot plus two fifteen inside
• 46:40
  the distance Cameron Simon plus four fifty. So I put one of my bigger
• 46:46
  bets I've made on Talbot Saturday night, a little drunk at the casino,
• 46:52
  at the blackjack table, I open up Twitter, shout out Clint Diehard MMA
• 46:59
  five the big bet Talbot whatever may be minus one ten. So I look
• 47:04
  at the odds, I'm like, wow, this does feel a little light
• 47:07
  against Cameron Simon, Like is he gonna wrestle for fifteen? He's a solid
• 47:10
  fighter, but like on the feet, I just feel like the volume the
• 47:15
  jab. I think Talbot can take over as the fight goes. Simon has
• 47:19
  good cardio too, but I just think the volume is gonna be on Talbot.
• 47:22
  I don't see Simon wrestling for fifteen. So long story short, Yeah,
• 47:25
  I put put some cheese on. I got minus one fifteen and Caesar's
• 47:30
  and FanDuel Softies linnits too small, so I had to get minus one twenty
• 47:36
  on DraftKings. They gave me what I wanted, got the line movement,
• 47:40
  but it came back a little bit. It was up to minus one sixteen.
• 47:44
  Now it came back to minus one forty some spots. Uh oh,
• 47:47
  got Talbot's side. I see Shark on Talibot. You're scaring me. Shark,
• 47:52
  talk to me, Talk to me, Big Marley. I'm gonna be
• 47:55
  on the other side. Oh do I do I take my Do I take
• 48:00
  ild and take my couple of dollars and cash out. I don't know.
• 48:04
  I don't have a strong take on it. It's more that I just I
• 48:08
  got to this fight after the move So Simon's or Salmon was like plus one
• 48:14
  thirty or something when I started doing this fight, and I thought it's just
• 48:17
  a little bit closer to pick him in my opinion, So the plus is
• 48:21
  what sold me. But had it moved the other way and Talbot had the
• 48:22
  plus next to his name, I would have picking him here. So my
• 48:27
  thing is I favor Cameron Salmon in the first round. I think he's the
• 48:31
  more dangerous striker in the first round. I think it's going to be a
• 48:35
  high paced fight on both sides. I think it's the highest pace fight on
• 48:37
  the whole card, But I also give Samon the wrestling and grappling edge in
• 48:42
  the first round. The second round is where it gets interesting because I think
• 48:46
  Salmon starts to slow down, Talbot starts to pick it up. Maybe Salmon
• 48:51
  win's the first half, Talbot wins the second half, and then the third
• 48:54
  round. I like Talbot to win in the third, and Talbot can put
• 48:58
  up even if he takes the first round off, you can put up enough
• 49:00
  volume to still score close to one hundred points probably, and the second and
• 49:05
  third, especially if Salmon starts to slow down, maybe Talbot could try and
• 49:07
  land a couple of takedowns of his own if he wants to. I just
• 49:12
  like both sides because it's right there in the mid range. Both of them
• 49:14
  have one hundred point potential and I expect you know, around ten x or
• 49:19
  more if either of them win a decision, And I would say the main
• 49:22
  worry is that it is so close that neither nobody knows who wins after the
• 49:27
  fight. It's gonna be a split decision either way, and the winner,
• 49:30
  no matter who it is, is gonna score between seventy five and eighty five
• 49:32
  points. That's the main worry. But still even seventy five and eighty five
• 49:37
  points, you could you know dead. So I'm just gonna load up on
• 49:40
  this fight, not gonna load up. It's it's my uh at best,
• 49:45
  it's my third favorite fight on the card, but probably my fourth favorite fight
• 49:49
  I'm thinking, But I just like both sides. I will just take the
• 49:52
  discount. I will go overweight to Salmon and I'll go underweight to Talbot,
• 49:57
  which I have the field as the opposite. I have Talbot is the higher
• 50:00
  owned guy of the two. I definitely expect Talbot to be the higher owned
• 50:04
  And like I don't even love it in DFS as I don't love this fight
• 50:08
  as much as you and DFS because I don't think Simon's finishing Talbot. I
• 50:14
  think you want multiple takedowns control time for Simon to get optimal. Do you
• 50:17
  think do you think you wrestles? No, I mean maybe Salmon, Like
• 50:23
  Salmon does not have good takedown defense, but every time he gets taken down
• 50:27
  and he's like, it's not in his last fight, but every time he
• 50:30
  was taken down before his last fight, he's getting a reversal and then dominating
• 50:32
  on the ground himself. So I think Talbot is gonna think his edge is
• 50:37
  on the feet here, so why go for taking You think you think same?
• 50:39
  I think same is more likely to geta goes for takedowns. Yes,
• 50:44
  I think you do think so. Yes, I think he's more likely.
• 50:47
  Yeah, I mean, I I bet Talban. I think he has the
• 50:50
  advantage on the feed. I think the volume will be there, so I
• 50:52
  think saman might try and mix in, which he can. I mean,
• 50:55
  but I don't know how good Cortes is inner series, Like he is a
• 51:00
  primary wrestler. He ain't a great one, but man, Talbot stuffed all
• 51:04
  those takedowns, like Corte has gotten deep on a lot of those shots too,
• 51:07
  which I feel like, now that I'm saying it out loud, majority
• 51:10
  of people probably would have finished on those takedowns where Talbot was able to stay
• 51:14
  on his feet. He is long for the division, he's tall, but
• 51:17
  I'm still not sold on the takedown defense he was taking on twice in the
• 51:21
  first round last fight. I'm on Talbot, young kid, a lot of
• 51:23
  volume. He's taking that a lot in the regional scene too, Like he
• 51:28
  doesn't have great takedown defense either. So I do think it would be smart
• 51:31
  of saman to look for takedowns, especially in the first round. But my
• 51:35
  worries that tires him out quicker if you're not able to get a finish,
• 51:37
  and then that is what's going to help out Talbot by coming back winning the
• 51:40
  second and third. Maybe. So at this point, I mean, I
• 51:44
  feel like you you definitely got a good line, But at this point I
• 51:46
  would wait after the first round try and get a better line on Talbot,
• 51:52
  maybe live or something like that. Yeah, yeah, no, I mean
• 51:54
  I beat line movement. We'll see what I do. Yeah, shout out
• 51:58
  you, Clint Nless. We lose that week and then I'll have to take
• 52:00
  that shot out of the way. Just kidding, Yeah, I mean,
• 52:04
  Stephen Cooslo was taken dude down. He took down Terrence and Mitchell's cheeks.
• 52:07
  Yeah, it'll be a that'll be a good fight. It'll be a good
• 52:09
  fight for sure. I'll be on the Talviot side. I'll probably let it
• 52:13
  ride, probably letting a ride. Sharp three fights left Edmond, Schabasi and
• 52:16
  aj Dobson. Minus two oh five is Shabazian, plus one seventy five is
• 52:22
  Dopson minus one sixty five for this fight to finish Shabazi and plus one zero
• 52:27
  five inside the distance dops And plus three seventy five. I like this fight.
• 52:31
  I like this fight. I think Edmund gets him at some point.
• 52:35
  I got Edmund by knockout. Dude's still only twenty six years old, like
• 52:39
  came into the UFC with all the hype in the world. Has fought very
• 52:43
  good competition, kind of got exposed in his defensive wrestling, which is the
• 52:46
  reason he's lost a decent bit of fights. Also hasn't really paced himself fast
• 52:52
  finish or fast starter, slows down as the fight goes. I mean,
• 52:55
  man, I just think it at distance. I think it's at all day
• 53:00
  Dobson. I don't think he's bad man. He means he's durable, he's
• 53:02
  strong, But I just think Edmund is the way more technical fighter. He
• 53:06
  has more power. I think he knocks out Dobson first or second round.
• 53:10
  But if Dawson wins, I mean man Edmond can slow down. I think
• 53:15
  takedowns Dowson would more than likely need because I do feel confident Edmund winning the
• 53:21
  striking exchanges. But if Dawson wins, I'm expecting takedowns, control time,
• 53:25
  maybe even a late finish if Edmund gases or something, so I'll be playing
• 53:30
  him at seventy one hundred. He'll be relatively low owned on this card too.
• 53:32
  But yeah, I like Edmund, and again his ownership has to be
• 53:36
  capped to an extent. With Carl Williams and Rose right above him, we're
• 53:40
  going to get more ownership. So yeah, I like this fight. Evan's
• 53:43
  side for me, Big Marley, Yep, you're good. You're good fixing
• 53:47
  his mic, take your time, take your time, let me back.
• 54:00
  Yeah, I can't touch this thing or else it just on me. You're
• 54:05
  good. Yeah. I like this fight, but more so more so on
• 54:08
  the underdog. For me. One of us are winning the money, one
• 54:13
  of us losing it, one of us winning this week, and that's fine.
• 54:15
  It's just another one where I think it's closer to a pick and fight.
• 54:20
  Both guys solid strikers, but Shabazian does slow down as the fight moves
• 54:27
  along, as you mentioned, and I think that Dobson could pick it up
• 54:30
  as the fight moves along. But at the same time, Dobson is so
• 54:35
  freaking dangerous early in fights too when he wants to be. And I think
• 54:38
  if these guys are fighting in a phone booth, I actually favored Dobson that
• 54:42
  in that matchup, even in the first round. I do think that Shabazi
• 54:45
  is a better at range striker, though I think he's probably our minute winner
• 54:50
  in the first round. Either of them could land takedowns. They're not necessarily
• 54:52
  wrestlers, but they could just kind of exploit the other one's weakness by not
• 54:58
  having a bottom game on the ground. So I think both sides have a
• 55:01
  path to a high score with the knockout and mixing in some wrestling. But
• 55:07
  with Shabazi and he like I think he has to get a knockout to pay
• 55:09
  off a ninety one hundred dollars price tag. I mean, maybe on this
• 55:13
  card you don't even need like one hundred points from him, but I just
• 55:16
  like other favorites. More so, I'll be underweight on Shabazian and then on
• 55:22
  Dobson's side if he wins a decision. Maybe we're flirting with ten x,
• 55:25
  but he has a knockout power in any round, so I think he has
• 55:29
  one hundred point potential, won't get too much ownership. So I'm gonna be
• 55:34
  on the Dobson side. And you mentioned it before, man, I don't
• 55:36
  hate building a Shabazian lineup and then just taking him out, putting Dobson in
• 55:40
  two grand on the table. Nobody else canna have that line up. Yeah,
• 55:44
  no, it's so you can do that in pretty much any of these
• 55:46
  fights, Like it is so viable if Dobson wins. His offside is just
• 55:52
  as much pretty much as admints, Like you think you get a first round
• 55:54
  knockout. We think Admin can get a first run knockout. You're not.
• 55:58
  You're giving up win equity, but you're also giving up if the end the
• 56:01
  lineup of zero dollars, you win and you get fifty people, let's just
• 56:06
  say for thirteen k, or you take it out and then you go Dobson
• 56:10
  set of thirteen K. If Dobson gets an outscores that's optimal. You can
• 56:14
  win one hundred K solo thirteen K one hundred k even at those money line
• 56:17
  onds. Like You'll take that chance any day of the week, So I
• 56:21
  definitely do like that. Please you think Aj Dobson, whoever wrestle heavy coach
• 56:28
  Chavazi is Yeah, I do think so. I think so because I think
• 56:31
  Shavazian's gonna piece him up at distance and maybe not and knock him out.
• 56:35
  So I think Dobson eventually is gonna want to panic wrestle or just wrestle from
• 56:38
  the start. Personally, yeah, I think he could. Man, I
• 56:42
  would prefer you just go out there and try and take off Shabazi's head in
• 56:45
  the first round, like some of Dobson's regional scene fights, Like these people
• 56:50
  were scared to be in front of the Yeah, it's knocking them out quick.
• 56:53
  So I would like bring that back out, just get super aggressive and
• 56:57
  try and kill this guy. And I think he could do it. But
• 56:59
  yeah, at the same time, I mean, I don't know how much
• 57:00
  you want to really bring in Mark Coleman aspect of it, but you could
• 57:07
  look at that both ways. Maybe I want to wrestle for my wrestling coach,
• 57:08
  or maybe I want to freaking just knock this guy out, and I
• 57:12
  don't get paid by the hour, so let me get out quick. So
• 57:15
  I don't know, I don't really look at that too much different, but
• 57:16
  maybe just win wise, you want to give Dobson more equity because he has
• 57:22
  more to fight for or whatever, I would say, go ahead, but
• 57:24
  I already like him enough. Yeah, fair enough. Two fights left on
• 57:28
  the card, Big Boys. The second of two Big Boy fights. Carl
• 57:32
  Williams justin TAFA minus one eighty two is Carl Williams plus one fifty seven is
• 57:37
  justin Tafa CITs minus one eighty to finish, Carl Williams plus one fifty five
• 57:42
  inside the distance justin TAFA plus two hundred. We have I'll say our ownership
• 57:47
  out loud in this one, Carl Williams. We have the highest owned fighter
• 57:52
  on the card at fifty one percent. Justin Tafa at sixteen percent. Why
• 57:57
  Carl Williams we have is the highest owned. He's a DFS monster when he
• 58:00
  wins. I mean, he's a wrestler evers over four takedowns per fifteen and
• 58:05
  he's going against someone primary striker has not fought wrestlers. Just saw his brother.
• 58:12
  Nothing off his back, literally nothing off his back against Alima. Also
• 58:16
  no answer to any leg kicks. Justin Tafa Williams. Williams wants it on
• 58:22
  the map. Tafa wants it on the feet. Pretty much that simple.
• 58:25
  I mentioned it earlier. That's why I think you can go ninety three hundred
• 58:29
  take out Williams sixty nine hundred Tafa. It feels really gross. But again
• 58:32
  plus one fifty seven plus two hundred inside the distance, the power advantage,
• 58:37
  the advantage on the feet, like it's not crazy about any means, what's
• 58:42
  Justin toff in round one plus two seventy five Carl Williams in round one plus
• 58:45
  four to twenty five. I mean, I'll throw it to you on that
• 58:49
  note, I picked, I'm picking Justin Tafa. He's my pick hot take
• 58:53
  contrarion. However, in DFS, I mean, I'm still like Tafa,
• 58:59
  so I still should get or of him. But man, if Carl Williams
• 59:01
  wins this fight, it's almost like a lock to be one hundred plus,
• 59:05
  whereas you can't really say that about anybody else on this card. So if
• 59:08
  he wins minus one eighty two, maybe I should just get like his win
• 59:12
  equity minus one eighty and gets something like that, because I think his win
• 59:15
  equity is pretty much his optimal equity. Man, there's plenty of pass where
• 59:21
  he doesn't get this fight on the mat and tough A knocks him out or
• 59:23
  something like that. So yeah, I'm on top of him. I'm not
• 59:30
  so what I say. You're on Williams already. We've been different every fight.
• 59:32
  You gotta be on Williams. Definitely on Williams. Here, Williams my
• 59:37
  favorite play on the whole card. I didn't even know how I was gonna
• 59:38
  look at the rest of this card, but I put Williams on my core
• 59:40
  plays on Monday. I saw that almost the lead in. I was like,
• 59:45
  he obviously meant to do that. So but yeah, I just think
• 59:51
  that the lines are not wide enough on this one. To be honest with
• 59:52
  you, like, if we're turning knockouts off, I'm not sure Tafa beats
• 59:55
  this guy in a striking match. Well, you can't turn knockouts off.
• 1:00:00
  Well, I mean you can, because freaking Tafa went three rounds with Jared
• 1:00:04
  Vandera lost, went three rounds with Carlos Felipe, lost, and all these
• 1:00:09
  wins that he got, they're all first round knockouts. He's landed a total
• 1:00:14
  of thirty four strikes in these wins. That's just not a guy that I
• 1:00:16
  like to bank on. He's a first round knockout or bust type of fighter
• 1:00:21
  in my opinion. Maybe he's so cheap that the ownership isn't high enough,
• 1:00:24
  probably because if he wins my first round knockout, he's on the optimal lineup.
• 1:00:29
  But I just love fading those types of fighters, And I think Williams
• 1:00:32
  could beat this guy on the feet, but you get one takedown on this
• 1:00:36
  guy, Tafa's gonna have absolutely nothing to offer. So Williams is gonna spend
• 1:00:39
  the rest of the time either getting these little pillow strikes that count now,
• 1:00:45
  or he's gonna finish this guy on the mat. He's gonna have absolutely nothing
• 1:00:49
  offer, just like his brother, just like Tui Vasa, just like Tyson
• 1:00:52
  Pedro all his boys who just got dominated on the ground recently. He's gonna
• 1:00:55
  be the same thing. So give me Williams. I'm gonna be close to
• 1:00:59
  all in on the fight because of the Williams side. I want him and
• 1:01:01
  damn near every lineup I create, but I'll probably just throw in Tafa for
• 1:01:05
  the others. But I would say, like on your on your side,
• 1:01:08
  maybe don't match his win odds minus one Ady, we're looking at like sixty
• 1:01:13
  five percent. I definitely like sixty five percent. But I don't think any
• 1:01:16
  win from Williams gets there, because I think he could outstrike this guy just
• 1:01:21
  like he did Chase Sherman and win, what like with seventy two points something
• 1:01:24
  like that. Yeah, I think Williams is better everywhere except for power and
• 1:01:30
  Taf as the perfect guy that I like to fade. So give me the
• 1:01:34
  knockout to not come and Williams to dominate this guy on the ground. Yeah,
• 1:01:37
  no, I hear you. I mean I think it was mainly the
• 1:01:39
  Bresky fight. I was like, dude, Carl Williams looks awful. Bresky
• 1:01:44
  somehow looked worse, like both of them had zero gas tank left, and
• 1:01:46
  him like he was dragging him to the mat. He somehow gets up.
• 1:01:50
  Then you like a four minute oxygen break halfway through the second like, and
• 1:01:53
  I saw that Carl Williams. But I was like, all right, then
• 1:01:55
  Chase Sherman couldn't even get got him at once, but he couldn't even get
• 1:01:59
  him down. I was like, all right, Tafa, give him a
• 1:02:01
  upper cut, give him something right in the middle. But to be honest,
• 1:02:05
  I mean, Sherman's more mobile than Tafa, and at least when Sherman
• 1:02:09
  is on his back, like you feel a little like if Tafa gets stuck
• 1:02:12
  on his back in the middle of the octagon, I don't see him getting
• 1:02:15
  up, Like I really don't see him getting up. So I get all
• 1:02:19
  the Williams stuff. He's the highest, is the highest owned fighter on the
• 1:02:22
  card for a reason. It's him a Rose and they're in a tier of
• 1:02:24
  their own. It's how I see it. So I feel like I'm probably
• 1:02:30
  real high on that Williams ownership too, with his line kind of shrinking this
• 1:02:34
  week, but it's like my own personal love for him. This week,
• 1:02:37
  I was like, I gotta put him up there high. I wouldn't be
• 1:02:39
  surprised if it was like forty seven forty seven with Rose and Tafa or something
• 1:02:44
  like or Rose and Williams, excuse me, or something like that. But
• 1:02:47
  I mean, I assume a lot of people that play listen to a lot
• 1:02:50
  of shows, or they just will look that he can take that people down.
• 1:02:52
  He had his upside look at a game log. So I don't know.
• 1:02:55
  Yeah, maybe a little hot on his ownership, but he's gonna be
• 1:02:59
  him and Rose to the high zone fighters on the car. There's no doubt
• 1:03:01
  about that. Let's fight on the car. Let's get right into it.
• 1:03:04
  Rose down the unis aman the Heboss minus two hundred is Rose plus one seventy
• 1:03:09
  is Heboss fights minus one seventy five to finish Rose plus one fifteen inside the
• 1:03:15
  distance Heboss plus three hundred. I mean, I'll say it. I guess
• 1:03:20
  right away, I'm gonna be underweight on Rose. I'm gonna be overweight on
• 1:03:22
  Hebos. I think the line's fair. I guess. I don't know.
• 1:03:27
  I still think it's even a little wide. Hey, you don't know what
• 1:03:30
  Rose is gonna show up. More importantly though, for DFS, Rose can
• 1:03:35
  win this fight in multiple ways and still not be optimal. A third round
• 1:03:37
  knockout, second round knockoutside, even guaranteed thickets passed the third round. I
• 1:03:44
  mean, we've seen her in plenty of very boring fights. Hebos is more
• 1:03:46
  active, like we'll push a higher pace than as far as a fight etc.
• 1:03:51
  Then the Furo fight. I think she does have durability concerns, so
• 1:03:54
  Rose can definitely catch her. But Rose isn't really high volume. I don't
• 1:03:59
  think she's gonna be landing takedowns and a bunch of control time third round,
• 1:04:02
  fourth round, fifth hour knockout. Sure, but I think the volume is
• 1:04:05
  already gonna be a low enough where you won't be optimal. At the end
• 1:04:09
  of the day, at ninety two hundred, she's gonna be over forty percent
• 1:04:12
  own as one of the highest fighters on the slate. I get it.
• 1:04:15
  It's because it's twenty five minutes, it's five rounds, et cetera. Give
• 1:04:17
  me these, Let me see who else is all about in the nine k.
• 1:04:21
  Give me Andre Lima over him, Give me Ricardo Hamos over him.
• 1:04:27
  Give me Padilla over like him. I keep saying him her. Give me
• 1:04:30
  Fernando Padee over her. Give me Edmund over her. Give me Carl Williams
• 1:04:32
  over the end of the day, at this ownership, I'm gonna be underweight.
• 1:04:35
  I'll be playing keyboss as leverage off a Rose. But she's also gonna
• 1:04:40
  be popular too, so at the end of the day, I'll just probably
• 1:04:43
  be underweight on this fight. What are your favorite underdogs? I will say
• 1:04:46
  you can rewind the show. We talked about a lot of them. Otherwise,
• 1:04:48
  the tier rankings at schipanation dot com breaks down every upper tier, mid
• 1:04:54
  tier, lower tier. You can find that very easy and then slate plan
• 1:04:58
  fight rankings, et cetera. Yeah, I'll be underweight on this fight,
• 1:05:00
  though more interest on the Heba side. What about you? Yeah, I
• 1:05:05
  think that all makes sense. Usually I have main events or really just five
• 1:05:11
  round fights as five stars over at ship innation dot com. But this one
• 1:05:15
  I went four star because of the Rose side. Just ninety two dollars is
• 1:05:18
  a lot to pay, and she's the type of fighter who's gonna just dance
• 1:05:23
  around in the octagon. She can avoid a lot of strikes and then throw
• 1:05:27
  hers when she wants to, but she's not a really high volume striker,
• 1:05:30
  and then she also doesn't mix in her wrestling a lot. I do give
• 1:05:33
  her the ultimate edge everywhere. I think she's a slightly better striker, maybe
• 1:05:39
  more dangerous grappler. Wrestling's probably close, but I just give the slide edge
• 1:05:45
  to Rose. And then the main thing is just that Rebus has no chin
• 1:05:51
  man she's She's the female Erosa, and I just don't trust her chin at
• 1:05:56
  all, especially against someone like Rose, who's a sniper can knock her out
• 1:06:00
  with a paunch or a kick. So ultimately I'm taking Rows to get a
• 1:06:03
  knockout. That's why I do like her, but I probably am not going
• 1:06:08
  to get any real leverage to her ownership. She's high enough already, so
• 1:06:11
  I think that the best move is to I don't know about the best move,
• 1:06:15
  but the move that I've been thinking about is just to try and fade
• 1:06:18
  this fight in as many lineups as I can and get different from the field
• 1:06:23
  that way, especially the ones where I'm not leaving a lot of salary on
• 1:06:26
  the table. But on the other side, Rebus. I mean, if
• 1:06:30
  you go and look at the stats on this fight, every single stat from
• 1:06:33
  reach down favors Rebus, striking pace, striking accuracy, striking defense, take
• 1:06:40
  down, accuracy, takedown, defil, every single thing favors Rebus. And
• 1:06:43
  if this is a five round fight, it's really a coin flip in my
• 1:06:46
  opinion, So I would rather if we knew that was the case. There's
• 1:06:49
  no finish in this fight. Fade Rows easy, and then you load up
• 1:06:55
  on Rebus. She might not win it, but it's fifty to fifty,
• 1:06:58
  so I still think she's going to score well over ten x and she's probably
• 1:07:00
  gonna score closer to one hundred points and break the slate. So I'm really
• 1:07:04
  fine doing anything with this fight, but I prefer the Rose side just because
• 1:07:10
  I'm getting I'm picking her to get a knockout could be the way to go.
• 1:07:15
  What if I told you Rose gets a knockout in either three, four
• 1:07:17
  or five, what odds do you think she has a chance at out to
• 1:07:21
  them? Yeah, I would say not great odds, you know, like
• 1:07:25
  twenty less than twenty percent, And it would really come down to how many
• 1:07:30
  takedowns she mixed in before that? How many? How many do you think
• 1:07:32
  do you think she? Uh? She makes it a good bit, And
• 1:07:36
  if I was coach, I would want her to, Like I would want
• 1:07:39
  her to get a takedown early so that reebas is guessing what's coming next,
• 1:07:44
  and then that way, I think Rose can really style on the feet.
• 1:07:46
  But I don't know. It could be none, could be could be zero.
• 1:07:49
  It could also be a freaking seventy strikes in five rounds, or it
• 1:07:55
  could be a head kick in thirty five seconds. Yeah, could knock her
• 1:07:58
  out in the first minute. Yeah, I don't know, man, It's
• 1:08:00
  just a tough one. People like will DM me in discord, But hey,
• 1:08:04
  what do you think of my lineup? You can put either side of
• 1:08:08
  this fight in there. You could fade it and I'm probably gonna say I
• 1:08:11
  like it. Just don't stack it, Yeah, one hundred percent. Don't
• 1:08:14
  sack. Well, here we go, somehow that's gonna be I'm the winner.
• 1:08:16
  Yeah, don't don't stack it for sure. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:08:20
  I'm just saying underweight because I think it's pretty much ten minutes. Rose has
• 1:08:24
  the first two rounds to get a finish more than likely to be on the
• 1:08:28
  optimal over four and a half rounds plus one fifteen over three and a half
• 1:08:31
  favored forty plus percent on for Rose. Like I just I'm gonna take other
• 1:08:36
  shots, more so on the upper two. Not that I'm completely fading,
• 1:08:40
  but I will be underweights similar like I did with Sean o'melly And I was
• 1:08:45
  definitely wrong on Sean o'melley. You needed him to win. I had in
• 1:08:48
  my pool. I had a couple of really good teams with him. That's
• 1:08:50
  why I won't fully cross off some chalk five round fighter. But I do
• 1:08:55
  know I want to be underweight. I'll just be underweight to this whole fight
• 1:08:58
  with more fades than than the public. Yeah, And so I say,
• 1:09:01
  like, I want to go underweight or I can fade this fight. But
• 1:09:04
  then when I start building lineups, I like Rose more than Shabazi, I'm
• 1:09:10
  picking Shabazi and to lose, I'm picking Lima to lose. I like Rose.
• 1:09:15
  And when I like Rose more than Zelesnikova, I like more Rose more
• 1:09:19
  than Padilla. So I feel like I'm gonna end up with more Rose then,
• 1:09:24
  like I want to. But if I handbuild any lineups for like the
• 1:09:27
  big fifteen dollars contest, I'm gonna try and fade Rose in that. And
• 1:09:30
  then for the mini max if I do one hundred and fifty, maybe I'll
• 1:09:33
  go underweight to the whole fight in those. Yeah. No, I have
• 1:09:36
  no freaking idea. What's gonna happen for you? It's tough because like I
• 1:09:40
  like we talked about, I like Zellnkova, I like Lima, I like
• 1:09:43
  Putty, I like all the id men like talk in ownership relative to Roses,
• 1:09:47
  like I'm gonna be taking all of them half the ownership or a court,
• 1:09:53
  whatever it is, I'll be taking the ownership discount more times than not.
• 1:09:57
  Awesome, awesome breakdown as always. Thirteen fights. It's very very tough
• 1:10:00
  DFS card, no doubt about that. Did our best to try and help
• 1:10:03
  you out again. Everyone made way too, every single fighters. We don't
• 1:10:08
  have to worry about any fights hopefully being off please no fights, no one
• 1:10:12
  pulling out after lock. Thirteen fights APEX seven PM, Eastern Big Boy Prize
• 1:10:17
  pools. Very fun, very hard, very interesting DFS card again. We
• 1:10:23
  got you covered at Chippination dot Com projections, ownership up, Marley's fight rankings
• 1:10:28
  up. All my stuff will be up shortly after the show. NBA today,
• 1:10:31
  NHL going on NASCAR this weekend, PGA this week, and MLB starting
• 1:10:36
  next week. Great time to be a sports fan. College basketball on right
• 1:10:40
  now. Enjoys the sports. Let's try and make some money. Use that
• 1:10:44
  code code who fifteen if you want to head this ship. Nation dot Com
• 1:10:46
  gets you fifteen percent off your packages. Final words to the people, Dave
• 1:10:50
  Marley, Yeah, final words. Last week we had Rio Hebrew Cheetah take
• 1:10:58
  down the main I think he was in second place, but he won like
• 1:11:00
  twenty two grand. Then the next night he won his chance to the NBA
• 1:11:04
  Live Final tomorrow, So good luck to Hebrew Cheetah. I hope you take
• 1:11:09
  that thing down. That'll be sick. But you cannot skip out on UFC
• 1:11:13
  because the last time he won big in the UFC, he took it down
• 1:11:16
  the next week as well, so you got to go back to back.
• 1:11:18
  Rio, I hope tomorrow is a life changer for you. Good luck to
• 1:11:21
  him, good luck to you title, good luck to everybody listening. Let's
• 1:11:25
  ship it, yeah, sir, thank you very much. Good luck to
• 1:11:28
  Rio. Indeed, I will say everyone out there, I haven't even told
• 1:11:30
  Big Marley yet. MMA show will be next Wednesday instead of Friday. I'll
• 1:11:34
  be out in Vegas for my Baster party join the weekend, so we'll get
• 1:11:39
  out a little earlier for y'all. Wednesday'd be on the lookout for that.
• 1:11:42
  Didn't even tell Big Marley. We'll find the time that works though. Good
• 1:11:45
  luck everybody. Hope you guys have a good weekend for Big Marley. I'm
• 1:11:48
  titled talent, be safe. Good luck. Most have plans and pass and
• 1:12:13
  still mother Han Fams must have them still mother any times, and then still
• 1:12:28
  Mother any fas