Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Module 3 - Understanding Bowman Color

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Module 3 - Understanding Bowman Color · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Alright, guys, welcome back in to the Scout and the Speculator podcast brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v1.com. The absolute best place on the internet for all of your Bowman buying, investing, selling data needs. I could go on with that for probably 30 minutes or so, but in the interest of time, ⁓ I'm introducing my co-host Jeremy Brown. ⁓ today we're going to get into how we buy, where we buy, and kinda what we buy. ⁓ this is the first of a series of what we're gonna call little modules. ⁓ we're gonna try to keep it around fifteen minutes and just give you guys the short, the sweet on ⁓ some bigger, kinda overarching topics in Bowman. Please do feel free to send us ideas for these. We have a whole bunch ⁓ written down and kinda in the backlog, but Jheremy: Yeah, hey. Jaba: Anything you guys want to hear us talk about, kind of our opinion or you know, something confusing that you'd like us to explain a little bit more in depth, please do let us know. Cause kind of the whole point of this podcast is to get you guys the information that you want, need, and ⁓ you know, just anything useful for ⁓ Bowman baseball cards. So without any further ado, I'm gonna kick it over to Jeremy. Jeremy, how do you You know, kind of look at what you buy, you know, what's your kind of buying ethos and most importantly I would say where do you do the majority of your buying? Jheremy: So I'm I'm like literally you can't see 'cause it's audio, but I'm going through like stacks of cards next to me, just getting like little refreshers 'cause for some reason I remember every place I purchased a card, how much I bought it for, where I bought it for. ⁓ honestly Most of my spending, I would say comes at card shows in person, which I know some people are probably listening, like, well shit, there's no card shows near me. Like, how do I like and we are lucky up here, right? You and I both live in Massachusetts. We have if we wanted to, we have a card show every Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Different spot might be some overlap of dealers, but between Connecticut and Massachusetts, even if you get down into the Atlantic, mid-Atlantic region area, we could literally find a card show every day. So putting that aside, because that isn't available for everybody. I do a lot of card shop purchases. Again, hopefully you have a good card shop near you within the vicinity. Maybe make it a point to find something within an hour, go check it out, try it out. You never know what's going to be there until you do go there. ⁓ and then whatnot in eBay. Those are kind of like the ⁓ I guess just online commerce, right? Because you're you have little apps like Mercari or Collects, stuff like that too. But whatnot and eBay, I go on kicks where all of a sudden like I read something and I gotta have something of that guy, right? Like we've all been there, that FOMO kicks in and eBay is your quickest. I can go there, I can bin it, I can be good to go. ⁓ whatnot, you might find a deal strolling as a stream, looking in people's shops, stuff like that. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: But for the most part, I would say my best deals come in person at card shows. Guys are more likely to give you a deal because there's no taxes, there's no fees, ⁓ straight cash to their pockets. So ⁓ curious about you though, because I know we kind of operate similarly, but also on different wavelengths at times. Jaba: Yeah, for sure. And before I get into it, I do wanna say, I know Jeremy said, ⁓ you know, we are lucky, you know, kinda here in the northeast with the amount of card shows we have. ⁓ there's a website. It's ⁓ sportscollectors digest dot com. Where if you just Google card shows near me and click that link, it w it does break it out by a state. I don't know if it's a you know, completely, you know, perfect look at things, but it does give you some sort of a schedule on what's going on in your state. so Jheremy: Well. And I I'll say, ⁓ do it on your computer, not your phone, 'cause it is a monstrosity of info and on your phone it just constantly kicks you back to the topic trying to scroll through Jaba: Yeah. And it it's one of those websites that looks like it was made like thirty years ago and never touched. So it might you know, might blow up your phone, but it it it is a great resource. But ⁓ Jheremy: But it works. So Just safe. Yeah, that's a good call. Jaba: For me, there's definitely a lot of you know, in common with Jeremy. I think buying at shows is great, especially if you walk up to somebody, they have a ton of Bowman. You know, if you wanna buy, you know, fifteen, twenty cards, doesn't even matter if they're you know, I'm not talking, you know, you're buying five thousand worth of cards. I'm saying if he has, you know, twenty base cards that you like, ⁓ you're almost definitely gonna get a really good deal. You know, if you're just kinda taking ball. ⁓ I think people are quite open to ⁓ you know, shaving some off if you're taking a bunch off their hands. And I think card shows also are a great place to kind of meet people and network and kind of hit you get to know these dealers, these sellers, and even buyer-to-buyer. I mean, that's how I met Jeremy at a show. Jheremy: How's it pretending? What? Jaba: you know, people are gonna reach out to you with cards, they know who you like and they'll say, ⁓ like, do you wanna buy this off me? Kinda the more people you know, the easier it gets and I would say the hardest part is just putting yourself out there, you know, meeting people, being friendly, and ⁓ from there it really is kind of an exponential growth in terms of your network of buyers and sellers that you talk to. as far as card shops go, I'm not as lucky. Jeremy lives in the suburbs. ⁓ I'm in the city of Boston and basically all I have here is like a Tom Brady card vault. ⁓ I'm not even gonna get started on that. That will be you know, that will overtake the episode completely. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: ⁓ I did go out to a a shop out by ⁓ Jeremy about an hour west of the city, had a great time, you know, I was kinda blown away. I was like, ⁓ is this like what ⁓ LCS is supposed to be? and now I'm kind of, you know, trying to track down the next one and look for places like that, 'cause I can go sit in front of a dollar box or like a five dollar box. You could lock me in there for a week with no food and I would not notice. Like you'd unlock the door and I'd be like, ⁓ how long has it been? Jheremy: Right. What day is it? Jaba: Exactly. Like that that is like my favorite thing. I mean no matter how big cards I get into, ⁓ you know, just digging through like five dollar boxes of Bowman stuff, looking for like little deals, that that is my absolute favorite thing to do. Yeah, it i it it's Jheremy: Those yeah, ⁓ by far my favorite at card shows. Like a good white box. And they don't have to be dollar boxes. It can be five, ten dollar boxes. Like you can find some absolute gems. So I guess I'm I'm cutting you off and cutting back to where I said. Like the value boxes it shows, that's where I do like most of my quote unquote damage. I'm not really a showcase shopper too much. ⁓ sticker prices still make me pucker up. Whereas I have no problem sitting at a five row, finding that Axial Plas two ninety nine auto that's stickered at ten bucks, knowing I can turn that into a fifty dollar. Bill or Pedro Ramirez base auto for five that I turned to forty. Like those wins for those are that's as much ⁓ that's a lie. That's more fun for me than going and like popping a Seth Hernandez base auto at two hundred when it comps at two fifty. Jaba: Yeah. And I I think, you know, like like I said, even as I get into kind of bigger cards here, there's like nothing more satisfying than finding something that you know is underpriced in a dollar box, especially because I think these vendors that are doing it every week, they're not, you know, setting their boxes every week. You know, it's not like it's like a twice a year activity where they're like, Okay, here's all the stuff, you know, as of this week that is worth, you know, five dollars or so. You know, you'll find stuff that's been in there for a year of a guy that's blown up. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: You know, you'll find a $30 base auto in a $5 box or something. And, you know, like Jeremy said, it it is probably my favorite thing to do in the hobby too. And that has kind of stayed true as I've grown and gotten into bigger cards. Just nothing can beat that for me. I'm not sure it ever will. ⁓ I will say I'm definitely probably more online heavy than Jeremy. ⁓ I'm a big fan of basically just eBay auctions, especially from consigner. that's a place where Prospect Pulse, our ⁓ sponsor, is huge for me. You can basically see every single Bowman auction ending that night and exactly what time it's ending at, the guy's slash line, ⁓ kind of pricing trends, the last five auction sales. ⁓ you you have everything in front of you that you need. So, what I'll do is, you know, for any guy that I remotely like, it doesn't even have to be, you know, ⁓ I'm sticking to five or ten names. It'll be anybody that I think is, you know, a solid baseball player, I'll go through, I'll make a list, and then I'll bid, you know, 75% of comps, 80% of comps, depending on how much I like the guy. You know, I spend like an hour or two a day doing this, and I probably bid on, you know, 150 cards, and some days I'll get three, some days I'll get 25. And that's just kind of how you build up a a bit of a war chest ⁓ in terms of investment names. And even if it's not your favorite guys, you know that you're getting everything below kind of comps. And You know you're getting good deals, and if it's guys that you like, you then believe that not only did you get it below comps, but the car is going to go up in value as well. So that's kind of a twofer. ⁓ whatnot, I do a little buying, it's tough. ⁓ you know, the big rooms that have the best stuff ⁓ are always gonna be harder to get a deal, and then the smaller rooms you can find deals, but generally speaking, they're smaller for a reason. I mean, when I started selling on whatnot and my rooms were small, it you know kind of reflected the stuff that I was able to sell and that's not you know to put anyone down or dissuade anybody from using whatnot you know nobody's gonna be starting with you know monster cards and that's kind of how I grew my channel you know it's just starting with lower stuff you know taking some hits and ⁓ building up from there but I would say the most critical lesson for me in terms of buying is if you're buying from these consigners on eBay whether it be DC Sports Quick Consign those are two of my favorites Jheremy: Right. Jaba: You know, you'll see a card that's worth like seven dollars at auction, then you see the shipping, and the shipping says, you know, plus five ninety-nine. Immediately you're gonna be like, ⁓ you know, I'm not doing that. That's ridiculous. You know, I'm paying the same for shipping as I am for the card. you know, how am I gonna make money on that? Or how is that gonna be a valid investment? The thing some people don't know is it's like a bar tab. So once you make your first purchase with one of those consigners, you have a week to check out, and everything you buy. buy from them after that will be like fifty cent shipping. And then once you hit a certain number, it's just free shipping. So basically if you're buying one card from them, you know, if you buy a $10 card, it's gonna be six dollars to get that shipped. But if you buy fifty ten dollar cards worth five hundred dollars, the shipping's gonna be like nine dollars all in. So the ProRata share of your shipping is going to go down dramatically and you will be shot. Jheremy: You're talking like almost pennies a card. Pennies a card when you're doing like the ten day checkout. So Jaba: Yeah, i i it it's literally pennies per card. And you know, for me, someone trying to r run a whatnot show, do shows in person, that is so huge for me to just be able to get cost effective inventory that I know, okay, well, you know, not all these are gonna sell well on whatnot, but I will have enough bulk to be able to run these shows and consistently kind of put out ⁓ content and all of that. So I I would say that the consignment houses on eBay, ⁓ and using the shipping like a bar tab, you know, I always just start one Monday and then on Thursday or Jheremy: It makes it way more digestive. Jaba: So all kind of cash out. They they ship fast. Yeah, it it it's that that's probably my number one on how to buy. And in terms of what I buy, I just buy the guys I like or just guys that I think are okay at good prices and you know from there you really can't go wrong because I I I I think profit is made off the by. So I think if you're reaching on stuff, you know it it's fine if it's a guy you love and it's your favorite team, you know, I'm not telling you, ⁓ you know, you're an idiot if you buy it, if you just go on and bin it at like 110, 120%. You know, go get your guys, collect what you like. But for me, ⁓ when it comes to stuff I'm trying to make money on, ⁓ the money's made on Jheremy: Thousand percent. Jaba: the buy and the more kind of under comp stuff you can get, you know, you just build up a war chest of stuff that you know you can make a few bucks on. And that's you know, that's what it's all about. ⁓ any closing thoughts from you Jeremy? Jheremy: Always. ⁓ yeah, one thing that made me think when you said about the new sellers that might not have the bigger stuff. The new sellers that might also just have a back wall where they're doing set prices. And that leads me to the it's okay if you wanna pay comps on somebody you like. We're all trying to get under comps, but if you are looking to like pros ⁓ like prospect instead of flip, like truly prospect, like I know you and I when Juniker first came out we were bidding them at full ask of twenty twenty-five dollars. You could probably get them cheaper if they ran in a room. But I I bought refractors at full ask. I bought mini diamond auto at full ask. Like if there's players you do like and somebody has it on the back wall and you're like, ⁓ there's we'll just throw out a Luis Hernandez base auto. I imagine he's gonna be what? Probably two hundred plus at release, I would think. Like, if somebody has him at a buck fifty. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, that's gonna be a bobber. Jheremy: Or even close one seventy five like quick. Like don't be afraid. And I'm not saying go spend a hundred and seventy five on Luis Fernandez. Maybe he settles really low right away. But like I was I was buying Florentinos at a hundred base autos, and I think he's gonna be really good. So I feel like buy buy players you believe in and just know it's okay if not everything's at eighty percent. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, and to go off the Florentino point, you were buying him at a hundred. I was buying him at a hundred. He's down at like eighty now. I am still totally fine that I bought him at a hundred. you know, I I don't really wanna, you know, chase and go completely nuts and have a hundred base autos of him. But, you know, if I can find one at seventy five, I'll buy it. I'll I'll keep adding. I I mean, if if you believe in a guy, I I mean his prices are literally down twenty percent and I don't you know, it it's not particularly meaningful to me. I I believe in the player Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Right. Yeah. It's not a detriment to you right now. You're just like Jaba: and you know, like you said with Caceres, it's like, yeah, of course, there's gonna be guys where you get them early and you're buying at 20 bucks. But if you still like a guy at his current price, I don't want people thinking, ⁓ well, he was, you know, a third of the price six months ago. You know, I'm stupid if I buy now. In the last month, I have been buying Caceris at full comp. I have one at 60. I have, I'm on my eBay history right now. From this is all from the month of August. I have one at 60, 61. Jheremy: Yeah. He was there for a while. Jaba: A refractor at 155, a base at 64. You know, I'm still buying him at full comp. And I just I have that conviction that he's probably gonna push 100. And you know, I will continue to buy him at that price, even though I have, you know, bought some at 20 and sold those off as I've gone. You know, it's kind of layering it up, which we'll kind of talk more about when we talk about selling. But, you know, like Jeremy said, it's pretty simple. Just buy what you like, buy the guys you like, and while comps are a great guideline generally speaking do not you know kind of bind yourself to them you know you don't need to shackle yourself to comps just because you don't want to you know kind of look stupid or feel like you're overpaying because if it's a guy that you like you're not overpaying Jheremy: We're at sixteen minutes. One more thing, real quick. Is on whatnot there's a lot of noise, a lot of names, a lot of people in chat saying, This kid's gonna be good, this kid's blowing up and you get a little bit of FOMO, right? Like, ⁓ he brought him up, ⁓ he brought him up and there's been several names that I've seen through chats or this or that where people like all of a sudden start pushing prospects off of maybe one good game or one good week. Like don't fall into the trap of thinking you have to buy everybody. And like it's something I've done. I've been guilty of it. I see one or two people bring up a name or talk about a player. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: I'm going and looking them up. I'm researching. I'm buying something just so I have a piece of it. Do I need to do that? No. Now I have like a bunch of cards, but that's okay. Like, but d just don't fall into that trap. It is very easy, especially with a new product release. You're not gonna know about the pirates' third baseman out of in the DSL who's 17, but somebody's gonna tell you he's a stud, all of a sudden you're buying him. You go look, he's batting a buck sixty eight with Three more three times the strikeouts to walks, and it's like, what did I just do? Like, just take a breath. You don't have to move at a hundred miles an hour. Go after players you believe in, players you've looked into. I mean shit, if a true blue of somebody's sitting there at twenty bucks in a room, like go grab it. But I wouldn't go mental, wouldn't go crazy trying to get a little piece of everybody because that's how you just end up with a desk full of cards and saying, What the hell did I do? Jaba: Yeah. Yep. And I I think with that and I'll close out with this. You definitely wanna have people that you listen to and trust and think are smarter than you. You know, for me it's like, okay, like Jeremy just knows a lot more about baseball than I ever will. And when he tells me about a guy, I listen. And you need to have those people that you talk to, but you just can't listen to like everyone's opinion and just follow anyone, you know, strangers on the internet. You need to have those people that you trust, but you also need to make your own decisions and kind of be your own person and say, you know, everyone loves this guy. I Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: don't really like his profile, that's okay. You know, there's multiple of those guys where it's just like I'm not gonna chase him and that's fine. And you know, like Jeremy said, you don't want to end up with like two cards of a hundred guys. Jheremy: Delete. Yeah, you you and I have a Yeah. Jaba: you know, you're much better off finding your twenty guys and, you know, going all in on them. ⁓ so that ⁓ that wraps up this episode kind of on how we buy. I'm sure there will be more ⁓ in the future, but this is kind of our ⁓ quick and dirty version. ⁓ so we are going to sign off there. Thank you all for listening. ⁓ love y'all and ⁓ go mats. See ya. Jheremy: That was good. That was like perfect. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, un un under twenty at least. Look what I just ⁓ pulled out of the mail speaking of. Would you like to guess what I paid for that? Jheremy: True gold. Pretty well centered too, it looks like. Left w left right. Jaba: ⁓ it's okay. It's not a ten. Jheremy: You bought it for Six hundred and sixty nine dollars. Jaba: No. It it was more than that, but it was way under comp. So it was like eight hundred. Jheremy: ⁓ I was gonna go there and then I just went with the six sixty nine. Eight hundred? Where at? eBay? What are the comps? Jaba: Yeah. eBay, yeah. They were like thirteen to fifteen. Jheremy: How? China? Jaba: The China ones are lower. ⁓ how did I get it at eight hundred? ⁓ I think it ended at like six PM on like a Saturday. ⁓ it was defin it was definitely one of them. I don't know, 'cause it went through the authenticator. So I have no idea. I thought that was good. Jheremy: Yeah. From DC. One of them. You gotta be pissed if you You gotta be pissed if you're the consignee there. Jaba: Yeah, I'd I'd be wildly unhappy. That'll be the last time I That's why I don't even do the consignment stuff, 'cause I'm like if I'm gonna get, you know, fucked, I I'm gonna be the one, you know, to blame. Yeah. It's like I I don't wanna be blaming some, you know, consignment house. I wanna know that it's my fault at least. Jheremy: Rocked. Yeah. I'm gonna be the reason for my downfall. Right. Can you tell I was leaving up cards the whole time? Jaba: ⁓ yes. I I I think I think that that's a ⁓ part of the male brain. I think if we're fidgeting with something we're actually cooking harder. ⁓ Jheremy: So one. I agree. So like there's fucking cards in here I don't even remember buying. And these are my recent pickups too. Jaba: Yeah. No, I I I get the same way where it's just like, What the fuck? Sometimes I'll get one that shows up and I'm just like, What was the Ooh, this is a nice one. This one was for my dad, so don't think I'm ⁓ Jheremy: What? You buy for your dad too. Jaba: ⁓ yeah, he's not allowed on eBay. He's he's gotten better at finding stuff, but like he he's actually gotten quite good at it, but he's still at a point where, you know, I was like a year ago where you can still miss stuff like like an IT auto or like a mojo or like Braylon Payne and 25 with non-first autos. Jheremy: Ha ha ha. Gotcha. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. Jaba: You know, he's still he's gotten very good, but you know, it's like he's not making moron mistakes, but it's still like the everyday mistakes like that I made that that are just avoidable. So he'll send me all the auctions and we'll discuss kind of what to bid and but we just got that in. That's the second one. It's twenty five of twenty five too. Jheremy: ⁓ come on, Dad. Yeah. Jesus Christ. Mazcards wants one of those and that guy fucking pays up. Yeah. Jaba: Does he? Jheremy: So if you're looking for a quick flip Jaba: ⁓ I'm just gonna bring it to white planes, honestly. Jheremy: And set it up for how much? Who knows? What? For free? For free? Good. Jaba: ⁓ three. Like three. I think I paid like twenty three on it. There's another one I bought up for like twenty six. Jheremy: Jesus. So were the blacks yours or dad's? Jaba: dad's. Jheremy: The two of ⁓ Jaba: ⁓ yeah. Like most of like the blacks and oranges are his. And then I'll just be buying like blues and golds of the same guys. So that's nice. It kind of creates a collective Jheremy: Gotcha. That's a good way to kinda go about it though. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause I I mean he wasn't you know, he was into it at first but he didn't really understand it and like he wasn't spending money on it. And then like last year I tracked all my selling on Prospect Pulse and I made like eighty-eight percent ROI, which is obviously like not completely sustainable. But, you know, he was like, Alright, like I'll give you like, you know, five grand and like I want you to buy me like cards. Jheremy: Right. Yeah. Jesus. No, it Java card. Jaba: ⁓ yeah. And it it's kinda just gone in like he's just kinda all in on it. 'Cause he's always been like very conservative with his money and stuff. Now he's like seventy three, doesn't golf and he's like so obsessed with it. Where like this is kinda his hobby. This is a fun one. Jheremy: Right, right. And he's got obviously money banked in, so he's good to go. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, the there there's definitely a ⁓ nice war chest there. Well it was funny 'cause the other day I was like, ⁓ like I'm selling this and he was like ⁓ like a ⁓ he was like or like he owed me money for a card and he like ⁓ I can't send it today like I'm moving stuff around ⁓ it definitely did because it's still running. We did lose the marker. Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: I'm just gonna write a note that we have a marker. I put a marker there, but I wrote that the last one ended around nineteen minutes. Jheremy: Yeah, yeah. Like, there's just so much, like... South of scene, Saffi auto? Say what? Jaba: Sell that. Jheremy: Probably. There's a lot of cards here I wish I could sell, but I'm just not around. Jaba: Well, if you ever need me I I can fuckin' sell a bunch of shit. I can do a standalone stream and give you all the money. I don't really care. I'm just trying to get my followers up and make it look like I have good product. So if you ever need someone to just fucking do a Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. I think you're good. Where you're at. Like this is probably worth more than the 30- 20 bucks I paid for it. I saw- I saw his bass models were like way up. Jaba: Yeah. He got hocks for a little bit too. ⁓ Well, this is a go-on. I don't know why I bought this. Jheremy: bass, ⁓ 499. Jaba: Yeah, he's I he's hitting under two hundred, not the batting averages the Jheremy: I was going to say, what's that right now? All of $7. Jaba: ⁓ fifteen dollars probably. I think I bought it basically hoping that they would just start like moving guys up. But then they actually started playing well, so Jheremy: Nice. Right. That's the button, here, throwing any strikes yet? Jaba: ⁓ I don't think so. I ⁓ once we got to like June I was just kinda I I stopped looking, frankly. Like it it was just ooh, there's an Essenberg refractor in the mail. Not auto, but Jheremy: I love that one for now. Jaba: I think J. T. Quinn might suck. I was really excited about him. Jheremy: I just bought a refractor off you. He's good. He's good. His market's just not good. Jaba: Is he? Okay. Jheremy: Is Jake Monroe still alive? Jaba: ⁓ yeah, he's doing fucking well, dude. I You want a true red t ten, Jake Monroe? Jheremy: What about Josh Newman's? have a Blue Way bottle right here. Sure don't. As stupid as it is, probably have to get this card up. Unheld Junao Inception out of 75. That's gotta go on eBay. Jaba: He hasn't Yeah. Yeah, Jake Monroe, eight eighty nine OPS, fourteen homers. He's up in double A and in thirty four games he has an eight eighty OPS. The the Homers are down. He only has three homers, but he's hitting the ball Jheremy: That's good. It's funny because he was like an afterthought in that product, big time. Jaba: He's hitting the ball in the air. He struck out twenty-seven times in thirty-four games. Five steals, so it's not like he's fast, but he's not like a total lord. I think the Angels just fucking blow. They had a really good draft. Am I am I wrong? No, twenty-five. Jheremy: Not bad. Right. Okay. This year, who'd they get? ⁓ with Bremner? Jaba: Slowinsky, Bremner, Monroe. I mean at least by their standards. Versus like a bunch of like fifth rounders just going to the majors. Jheremy: Nate's nude. Nate's nude. Right. Jaba: ⁓ alright. ⁓ I'm gonna pee again. I had a trend to cold brew. yeah, well I was trying to get whooped up. Alright. I'm gonna pee and then we'll hit selling. Jheremy: ⁓ yeah. Good God. I can tell. Be right here. Jaba: Do you have any take on the ⁓ River Ryan being a top prospect stuff at my age? Like, I know it's obviously not like a conspiracy for the Dodgers, but like do you think that that's like weird? Jheremy: It's just wild. I think if he wasn't a dodger, he's probably not in the top 100 prospects, right? Jaba: Right. But like I mean I saw people on Twitter literally saying they were like, ⁓ this is so like it looks better. Like obviously that's not the case. But like do you think that that's like insane? 'Cause I feel like it's insane. Jheremy: yeah i mean like he's twenty it like no offense to him but like i'm gonna take the eighteen-year-old with raw ability right now i feel right like Jaba: Yeah. I I think I'm two months older than him. And I've I did five years of high school and five years in the workforce already. And two months not in the workforce. Two months is a heart valve warrior. ⁓ all right, I'm gonna mark us and we go into selling, you good? Jheremy: How wild is that? Love that. Too much unemployed. Just waiting. Yeah. Jaba: ⁓ okay. Marker. Hey everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. ⁓ this is one of your two co-hosts, Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, here with my co-host Jeremy Brown, also known as JGB is it JGB Collectibles or Cards? Jheremy: ggb underscore cards underscore. Got to have the double underscore. Jaba: Gotta get that underscore at the end. ⁓ today's podcast, as always, is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulse v1.com. Follow us on socials, go check out the website. It is the absolute best place if you are a Bowman card collector or consider yourself a Bowman investor, so to speak, in any capacity. ⁓ if you're not on Prospect Pulse, you're you know, you're hurting yourself. And Jheremy: I think, ⁓ you said socials, I think we gotta get a social page. We can do stupid thumbnails together, make stupid thumbnails. Jaba: We do have to get a social. Yeah. I'll I'll put that on my list for today. Yeah. Yeah. And ⁓ we can download it gives me video clips from this. Jheremy: Awesome. Jaba: That we we can just throw up there. Anyhow, today's topic, we are ⁓ continuing our kind of mini module series on ⁓ Bowman Basics. I feel like that has a good ring to it. Maybe we call this series Bowman Basics. Alright, this is the second one we filmed, but that's going on the first one, too. I'm calling it Bowman Basics. ⁓ this is episode two of the Bowman Basics, episode three of the podcast. Not sure what order we are going to release things in, but this will definitely be the second module. Today's topic is when Jheremy: Ooh, Bowman basics. Do like a simple bit of it. Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ so we're gonna discuss kind of when we sell, why we sell, and what we sell. I wanna start today, instead of just kinda kicking it over to Jeremy or just kinda starting things myself, I wanna ask Jeremy a trivia question. I think I might have sent you this, but I saw this on Twitter ⁓ last week and I would imagine it still holds true or there's even less. There were thirty-four ⁓ hitters with Bowman Autos who debuted this year. Jheremy: Okay. Yep. Jaba: three of them has of I don't know, over the weekend, three of them have gone up from where they were on opening day. Can you name the three players? Jheremy: Yep. I can because I saw this tweet. I did see it. Although now it's yeah, yeah, Max Clark, George Lombard, who obviously it's like those are those are like their own category, right? Because they're famous. They've been famous since they were drafted. We've been waiting for their debuts and it helps that they've kind of been otherworldly ish when they got called like Max obviously lived on the barrel. Jaba: Coward. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: Lombard hit a pump, game one, hit another one, has played really good defense. Then as Merlin Valdez just went unconscious, like I think he had 14 home runs in two games. Like it was out of control in two games. Like he was that good at the plate that his base autos skyrocketed from like 25, 30 bucks all the way up to like 150. And again, you can track all that with prospect pulse. Like it shows you in real time what they were a week ago, a month ago, like Jaba: In two games. Yeah. Jheremy: You can track it that way. Jaba: Yep. It's like ⁓ it's like having a Bloomberg terminal for baseball nerds. ⁓ that's how I like to describe it. yeah, not to derail us, but ⁓ I have Esmerilin Valdez in my ⁓ Dynasty Fantasy League, and boy has he been bad in August. I I think he has one hit. so ⁓ if you have Esmerilin Valdez, you should probably unload that. ⁓ but yeah, so the lesson there to kind of kick off our selling episode is those are the three names out of thirty four hitters that Jheremy: That's rough. Jaba: that debuted this year that are up. And it's two famous guys who debuted. you know, within a week of their debut. We'll check back in like two weeks and see if they're even above the numbers they were at NS Marilyn Valdez who had a literally historical hitting stretch. everyone else is down. Weatherholt probably gonna win rookie of the year in the NL. I guess maybe Sal Stewart will. But McGonagal should win AL. ⁓ McGonagall's been like an A plus. I'm not really sure how this year could be much better for him. There's probably like a ninety seventh percentile outcome. Jheremy: Yep. Yeah, great. Jaba: He's down, it's slightly, but he's he's not up and you know he's gonna put up seven more. So I think the big lesson here is if you are looking at this from a financial perspective and trying to make money on Bowman, I feel comfortable saying that you should not be holding Bowman cards of any major league players if you're trying to make money on those cards. Obviously, you know, everyone has a PC, collect the guys you like, but if you are just purely trying to make money on a card and you still own it within a couple days of him debuting, you are going to lose money. Okay. Jheremy: How many cliched terms can we throw out real quick? Like, you keep go broke making a profit. s- a quick nickel's better than a slow dime. Yup. Jaba: ⁓ pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered. yeah. Jheremy: I mean, there's enough of them out there. Pick whichever cliche term you want to say, but like. I had that true orange at a 26 Bowman Lombard auto, right? That I bought for all in $257, like closer towards product release, just holding it, knowing, put it up, hit a home run. got binned at 600. Somebody sent me one like, Hey, look, it did 780. And I'm like, I doubled my money on a card that I'm into for 250 bucks. Like if you can a hundred percent that like, see you later. Like onto the next one. Like double my money after fees. Jaba: Yeah. Who cares? Yeah. ⁓ Jheremy: Like, how about it? Like, good for whoever got it. I hope you turn it and make a quick buck on it as well. But... Jaba: Yeah, make your make your ten, twenty percent. yeah, another kind of story here, I guess this is just gonna be the Java story time module. Back at the end of June, I was on ⁓ one of my best friend's bachelor parties down in Charleston. ⁓ obviously still buying with how easy it is. You know, if you have a cell phone, you can obviously just kind of continue your card stuff anywhere. bought a bunch of Sean Keys, had a bunch of Sean keys coming in. I'm on the golf course with my friends. I don't even golf, I was just driving the card. Saturday morning, and I see the Sean Keys got called up, and this was when he was going completely nuts in AAA, but he hadn't been there that long. I thought I had a little time. ⁓ I didn't. He got called up. I had some cards in my apartment that had just arrived. I had some on the way. I didn't have my own pictures of them. I don't feel good kind of relisting stuff off other people's pictures because I don't wanna be like, ⁓ well, I actually don't have it in hand. You know, I I just don't wanna Jheremy: minute. Jaba: you know, look sketchy in any way. So basically that was for me, that was a huge lesson. It was A, when you get cards in, you know, take pictures of ⁓ If a guy's close to debuting, take pictures of them, have ⁓ logged and cataloged. And ⁓ two, don't fly too close to the sun with debuts. ⁓ because once a guy gets called up, he's gonna go down unless he goes completely bananas and he's probably on a big team. And that's within like the first week. I mean debut day is probably like the highest. Jheremy: be that guy. Yeah. Jaba: Homer's on his debut day, probably goes a little higher, but from there it's going down. And you know, for me, I got home Monday morning and I I lost a I mean, thankfully it was Sean Keys, so everything was kind of relative. You know, you can't lose that much money on Sean Keyes, but I I lost a pretty, you know, uncomfortable amount of money ⁓ on Sean Keys, and you know, that's just gonna happen. You know, that's not something that like dissuades me, but it doesn't feel good. ⁓ and that's Jheremy: Great. Yeah, it means. No, because you just After after flipping like three cards well like that one Mistake I put it in air quotes like just put you back down to zero, right? Like Yeah Jaba: something I I never want to do again. So that's another lesson. Yeah. Yeah, and I I I think the thing for people like us and probably a lot of the people listening who are gonna be very serious, you know, Bowman collectors, investors, if you wanna call it that, you know, we're all doing enough volume and just enough deals constantly where, you know, you are going to have losers, but you will make up those losers and then hopefully, you know, go beyond that. But like everyone's gonna have losers. That's not really like, you know, my point here. You know, I guess I would say it's okay. Like i if you lose, like you don't need to hold it to the bottom. Like it's okay to lose little, ⁓ you're going to. Even the smartest people ⁓ are going to lose. to be clear, I'm not saying that's us. ⁓ but the the hypothetical smartest people. but yeah, I I I think that that's a huge part for selling. And you know, like Jeremy said, we could just sit here and spit cliches at you for 15 minutes. ⁓ we could probably do that for more like an hour. I would say for me a big strategy when I sell is kind of layering based on cost base. Jheremy: No, but it's baseball, like legitimately anything can happen. Jaba: And what I mean by that is in our buying episode, right? We talked about ⁓ June Acre Caseris, a guy that we both love. He was probably a $15-20 auto at release just about a year ago. ⁓ he's now a $60 auto, and I'm still buying him at $60, but that's not that's not the point here. ⁓ basically, you know, I bought a bunch of $20, $30, $40, $50. What I'm doing now is while I'm continuing to buy, I will take you know the cards that I have stopped. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: stocked up that were twenty dollars that are now worth sixty dollars and I'll sell those and I'll bank that profit and I'll take that money. Even though I think he's going up, you know, you never know. Like someone could get hurt, something bad could ha I mean it it it's not only is it baseball, but it's the real world too. I mean things happen Who's that? ⁓ is that Wayne Lean? Jheremy: Yeah. Baseball. Life. It's life. Yeah. I mean... Way in Lin, I bought it for like 170 bucks, blue X-Fractor. Literally 24 hours later, announce here's out for the year. That was just like good timing there. Like. I did. I bought it like 30 bucks under comps. I think I was doing about 200 and. I hope not, but we're not going to think about it. Jaba: Yeah. And you probably bought that under comps at the time, too. And No, it's probably worth what, like ninety? ⁓ I mean, well, the good news is, you know, this time next year it'll probably be back to where it was. But, you know Jheremy: Right. ⁓ here's another good one. Wander Franco Gold Mirror. That was probably like a $200 card at release, and now I found it in some dude's dollar box because, I mean, it was a dollar for a golden mirror, but still. Jaba: ⁓ yeah, that's ⁓ yeah. Yeah, I have ⁓ I have a couple Wanda rookie short prints. and those are worth so little now where I don't sell them because I don't want it I I don't like the Jheremy: Yep. I feel great about having them. Association of the brand. Jaba: Yeah, I I don't want it to look like an endorsement of the guy. like it's worth so little where I'm like I'm just gonna but like I don't wanna throw it out in case there's like an OJ situation or something. ⁓ you know, it spikes. Anyhow. so Jeremy, what's kinda you're selling? you know, what what what are your thoughts here? Jheremy: Exactly. Shit. Yeah. I mean, like, so I was eating breakfast at one of the shows with our good friend Langs, right? And he looks up and he's like, like, when, like, what's your goal with selling? And I think he thinks I was joking and it's not realistic, but it kind of is. I'm like, I sell when I can make a hundred percent. Like, it's not feasible. Like it's not realistic. At the same time, like, I guess what I'm getting at is when it feels right, when it makes sense. Jaba: Great guy. Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: every player almost every player has its bowman right like a bowman moment like they did something to get a social media post they did something something where all of a sudden johan de la santos literally went from a seven dollar base auto to a what 45 50 55 dollar base auto i bought a true blue for 70 he jumped all the way to 350 at one point like Jaba: Yep. Love that turnover there. Something like that, yeah. Jheremy: That's kind of when the alarm bells go off when you have that. But even like Johnny Slawinski, I bought a True Blue. I think I sold to you and I bought it at release for like 30 bucks. Like it made sense at the time to just buy it. Like, and it made sense at the time to sell it. just, I guess like when you know what you're into it for, what you're able to get out of it where you're comfortable. Like, and I know, cause I mean. Jaba: ⁓ great. Jheremy: hand up, we did this before and we failed it and made it way too long. We talked about Walshman on the first time we did this. And I never saw so many cards of a single player posted on Instagram for a debut. Then I saw Ryan Walshman, everybody, and it tanked his value. I sold a base auto for 70 bucks at the Hofstra show. By the time he got called up, they were doing like $30. Jaba: Yeah. Yep. Not not. Jheremy: Because so many more people in the Bowman space now we all have the same idea of, hey, he's close to the big leagues. Let's wait until he gets to the big leagues. Well, guess what? Now everybody's doing that. Nobody wants them because sorry, Arizona doesn't sell well. Like it just is like it is what it is where, like you said, three players out of 30 something have made money, have gone up in value since getting recalled. So I think, I think it's. Jaba: Yep. Yeah, no cares. Jheremy: Almost selling somewhere along the ride, not at the destination. Like destination being the big leagues, whether it's a high a promotion or a three home run game or a 10 strikeout outing, like Kim, Kevin, and he hit a punch out 11, like a week ago. Maybe he saw a spike in your holding something. I wouldn't move true color, low numbered color, but I would move some base autos if they jumped from 40 to. Exactly. Yeah. Jaba: Yep. Especially if you have a few. You you gotta sell something off there. And I I I I think I'm I'm kinda now overflowing with thoughts based on what you said. I would say one, I think people wanna ride this train all the way to the destination. But the thing that came up in my head is kind of seeing in like Looney Tunes when you have like the train tracks, right? And then like it goes over like a canyon and the train tracks stop halfway. I'm not sure that there really is a destination unless you're talking about like Bobby Witt, Wan Soto, ⁓ Jheremy: Right. Don't do that more often than not. Yep. Yup. Yup. Jaba: Yeah, even Skeen's no longer in that bucket. ⁓ I'm not saying bad. I think his fall is a bit, you know, overplayed. But, you know, I don't think that there is a destination. You know, there is for one in a thousand guys, sure. You know, but play that math and, you know, let me know how that goes. But I I I think, you know Jheremy: Even at that point, like... Right. Jaba: y stop at every station, you know. You're making money on Make a stop, sell a little bit, because I don't think that there is a destination. I think that, you know, if you try to hold another destination, you're on the train when the tracks end and it goes down the canyon. And ⁓ you know, to go off of your Waldschmidt point, ⁓ I think, you know, that's one with market and I know as you said this is our second take ⁓ on this because it went too long the first time. you know, with George Lombard when he came up last week Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: You know, everyone's gonna sell him at debut and you're gonna be fine because there's so many Yankee fans. Lombard's a big name. You know, there's a lot of mouths to feed and to sell to. Ryan Waldschmidt, ⁓ you know, no offense to Diamondbacks fans. I I don't know any Diamondbacks fans. I mean, look at Corbin Carroll's market. I mean, he's a perennial all star. Nobody cares. you know Jheremy: It's like a top 10, 15 player in all of baseball. Jaba: Nobody is buying, you know, guys at debut for the diamondbacks. What I saw was everyone was, you know, his call-up was imminent, everyone's holding him. And then, you know, call-up tweet comes out. People are posting, people are posting it up at like $75, but then there's so many people posting there where people start posting at $70. And then people are pulling the seventy-fives going down to $65. And it basically collapsed on itself. The you know, people basically created this Ryan Walchman bubble. And it it popped. yeah, you know, two thousand eight, big short, ⁓ ever heard of it? Jheremy: Housing work at anybody? But like, but like, what's that even? Shit, where was I going? I had a thought and there was a moment there to get in and now I don't remember. ⁓ with that, the stop as Merlin Valdez undercutting the market. I had a base auto that I knew I was into for thirty dollars after like the first eight home run game he had. I put it up twenty five dollars under comp and somebody bended it like one twenty. Like, OK, Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. You're making a huge profit both in terms of regular dollars and percentages. Yeah. Yeah. Yep. The Yeah. The the last thing I would say, ⁓ you know, to kinda echo what you said, once I hit two X on a guy, ⁓ I'm not Jheremy: Like just get out of it and don't try to maximize it all. I guess is my thought when you ask me, how do you sell like. Jaba: Maybe completely bailing out, but I had a ton of Anthony Ianson. Once I hit two X on him, I sold a huge chunk. ⁓ you know, he was a rare case where things just went completely bananas. ⁓ and I kind of sold off as it went. And lucky for me, you know, I was like, all right, I want to get out. And in the time that it took me to move the cards, he was just going up so fast that I happened to, you know, do increasingly better. But like once it got hits two X, I'm like, okay, get him out. I don't care if it's a, you know, twenty dollar card going to 40. ⁓ obviously if it's a $300 card going Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: On a 600, that's a pretty easy decision to make. ⁓ but I think just for me and trying to stay disciplined and within kind of my own self-structured guidelines, once a guy doubles, you know, on that individual card, I'm out. Like a June Acre Caceris, anything I bought at 30 or below, I've sold. I'm still buying him at 60 because I love him. But you know, I have logged the profit on the ones where I've made the profit and I will continue to buy him because I believe in him. But you know, don't get greedy here because you will get killed. There is no final train. stop unless it is Bobby Wit, Juan Soto, I I mean do you have any other I mean I'm I'm not gonna even say Shohei. ⁓ I mean do you have any other names that do you think like you're good if you had held for like a few years since Call up? I can't think of any. I'm sure there are Jheremy: I mean. I mean, I'm sure there are, because it goes to the point that I was going to make here too, is like, your getting point will also dictate your get out point. Like, I have Nathan Flewelling base autos that I legitimately bought for three to five dollars each. I could have hundred times my money, right? No, because I would make it what? 50 bucks. So they're there now. No, what's a hundred times my money? Jaba: Yeah. They're like forties. You could have eight X. Jheremy: Well, anyway, I could double up my money, right, easily to $10, but I knew there was so much more room there, too. So like, I'm not doubling, and I'm into them so cheap. I'm new at True Blue for 30 bucks. Like, I might see where this train stops. Jaba: Right. Yeah, that Yeah, that might be a price where you can risk, you know, going off the off the canyon. Jheremy: Like, Stadbl Delzine, like, I was in it three to five bucks a base auto, they're pushing 20, 25 now. Like, I can't, if you can't lose at the entry point, like, go for it. If you want to see it through, like, I know some people who got out of, ⁓ Flewelling at 20 bucks, at 25, at 30. I've just held them. Why? Because I'm, I'm partly dumb and be like, why not? Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Like, you're into him so cheap, you made such a good buy early on, like, just ride it out. I mean, I am close to it, like, how much higher can they get? Can he become that 60 to 77? I do think he can be. His numbers as a 19 year old are kind of absurd, but like, have, I have like 12 base autos. Like it's time to probably start bleeding some of those out and realize the money I've made on Jaba: That that that is an important distinction, for sure. Canadian Mike Piazza, left handed. Yeah, and I think You know, the big theme here, similar to buying, is there's no real right or wrong way to do it. I mean there are good ideas and bad ideas for sure, and we're trying to kinda outline those good ideas and tell you what we think the bad ideas are. but it all comes down to your individual goals and risk tolerance. You know, I don't wanna sound like a wealth management commercial right now, but like you need to know kind of what you're trying to get out of this, what your risk tolerance is, what your goals are, and you Jheremy: It doesn't look... Jaba: you invest and make those decisions accordingly. Jheremy: And like what your flexibility is, maybe you have to move a couple of cards just to get into some other cards or something too, Jaba: Yeah, like like like for me, I mean Bowman Chrome is coming out in, you know, a month. I think a month from today exactly. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: ⁓ you know, I I don't have I wish I did, but I don't have the money to just keep, you know, building my stack. You know, something's gotta go out so that that stuff can come in. So like I I have a number in mind that I want to sell before Bowman Chrome release so that I can then put that money into Bowman Chrome guys and feel good about it. And obviously I'm gonna start with the guys that I've made the most money on and that are the most liquid, and then kinda as I go, you know, it's gonna get more difficult. It's gonna either be, you know, tougher decisions for me or you know, taking a loss on some guys. ⁓ but you know you You have to know your limits, your plan, kind of where you want to be financially, ⁓ in terms of your spend and what you're doing with this. but you know, do it how you like. These are all just, you know, kind of educated suggestions. Don't let us, you know, totally dictate what you're doing. but I do like to think that we are two people who ⁓ you know, have a good idea of how this works and ⁓ you know, neither of us have filed for personal bankruptcy yet. Jheremy: Yep. yet Jaba: If ⁓ if Junec or Caceris you know ends up not making the bigs, ⁓ I could see that on the horizon for myself. But ⁓ we're gonna be optimistic here. ⁓ go ⁓ go guardians. ⁓ but Jheremy: Hopefully we can out by then. Again, we're not riding that train all the way to the station, so. Jaba: No. No. ⁓ again, that's like the, you know, Watchman with the diamond backs. It's like, you know I have friends who are Guardians fans. They're great fans. They do have a loyal fan base. But on a national scale, nobody cares. you know, Kataris, the guy, make your money as he moves up and starts to blow up on these top one hundred lists. But, you know, I I love this kid. I will probably buy like a, you know, signed jersey of him for my office when he debuts. But I if I'm holding a card of his at debut, something's gone wrong. Jheremy: Yep. I mean, J-RAM, too. You What ⁓ how much time in our way? Okay. Jaba: ⁓ a lot. So we are going to cut there. That is it for ⁓ module two on selling. And ⁓ thank you guys for listening. Appreciate you all. As always, please send us ideas, thoughts, comments, ⁓ whatever it may be. And ⁓ we will talk to you the next time. Alright, thanks guys. Go Mats. Bye. Jheremy: Only because I had more things. Yeah, but I think people will enjoy that because it was like helpful, not just rambling, I think. I mean, I guess. Jaba: Yeah, that do that definitely got meaty, but Yeah. Yeah, I I I think that not that like the first ones were like stupid ramblings, but I I do think that the r the ramblings that are still in it are more refined. And like it's like st I I I I think kind of including personal stories like we did is good. And examples. Yeah. Jheremy: It was us. Yes, I think people will like that more. I think we're in a good spot now with that. Jaba: Yeah, I'm ⁓ I'm happy with that. You wanna get a new ⁓ chrome? How you feeling? All right. Jheremy: Yeah. You might think I'm not paying attention, like I can't multitask anything, but like- Jaba: No, I I I I have cr I have crippling ADHD. I I I get it. Like my mom's always like, You're not even listening to me. I'm like, Yes, I am. I'm just fucking doing I know. alright. Marker go. Hey everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is a bit of a hybrid episode. It's technically going to be module three. What did we say we're calling these? Not base. Jheremy: I'm fully listening, I promise. in basics. Jaba: Bowman Basics, episode three of Bowman Basics. Not sure what episode of the show this will be. ⁓ you know, this this will be published within a week of our recording. I just said recording. but today we're talking about ⁓ Bowman Chrome ahead of the release. ⁓ I guess it's What's today? Tuesday? Yeah. So it's ⁓ the release is four weeks from tomorrow, Wednesday. Again, I don't know when this is coming out, but it will be, you know, in the next few days. ⁓ we're not gonna get into ⁓ a ton of names yet. We do have another episode coming on names that we think are snubs that are not on the checklist, but we need some time to kind of digest and look through the checklist before we ⁓ start giving, you know, really confident ⁓ kind of opinions on ⁓ the product itself and guys individually. But we are going to talk about Jheremy: day. Yeah. Jaba: About Bowman Chrome, kinda what it is, how we research, because it is a bit of a wild beast. Of all the three Bowman releases, I think you will agree that it is by far the most volatile. ⁓ you know, we're working predominantly with DSL guys where the extent of the information out there I mean for me, it's like, you know, I'm I'm I'm gonna look at the pipeline, you know, international free agent rankings from, you know, seven months ago before they even, you know, had a bats. I'm gonna look at that and then kinda go from there, look at their stats, look at their profiles, and then ⁓ kinda take it from there. But, you know, this is the most limited amount of both data statistics, you know, that you're gonna have on guys, you know, Bowman draft. I don't wanna say it's easy. Jheremy: It's a tweet. Jaba: But like You know, you kinda know who the studs are, and there's plenty of money to be made, plenty of sleepers. but, you know, there's just so much more data available. And then, you know, the classic Bowman release in late April or early May, you know, that's kind of gonna be guys that broke out in the last year or guys that were held out of draft to make the product better. You know, this is the one where there's a ton of unknowns. And I think it's scary because you can look at past checklists and say, Wow, like you know, people probably lost a lot of money on these guys, or you could look at an old checklist. And say, you know, how is this guy selling for three dollars and now he's a household name, you know, top 100 prospects across the board? So we're gonna get into that today. I wanna start. ⁓ you know, Jeremy, how do you look at these DSL guys? Because like I said, there's n basically no information out there. Like what's your thought process? You're you're you're the actual scout here. What's your, you know, thinking? Jheremy: mean, like, just do me a favor and when you guys look at this checklist and see the ages of 16, 17, realize these are high school juniors to maybe seniors that we're looking at. Like, it to last year. And this was my thought process with buying Sadbiel Delzine at three to $5, True Blues at 20 bucks. If he were from the States and in the draft, he's going top two rounds. He was 17. the whole year last year, six foot five, sitting mid nineties with what I read was at the time, the best change up in the Red Sox org. That's a no brainer. Like for three to five bucks, I will take a chance on that all day. And just having that thought process of, this could be a high school junior in just eliminating the older from the international side, like just putting them in the age bucket of who they would be with state side. It kind of was like, okay. And obviously I know what the 16, 17 year old stateside looks like. But for that to just be a kind of a correlation was a kind of like, yeah, I mean, make sense. Or if a kid has higher strikeout numbers or you have a Yohan de los Santos who was 16 years old at the time of release with like incredible bat to ball skills and zone awareness and plus speed. Like I'm okay with no power numbers at the time, Juniper Casares, because stateside we know power is kind of the last tool that comes, whether it be power or speed. because of the way the body develops. But that's a long story short of, I try to visualize them as though they were here with more info. And I watch a lot of video on Twitter, honestly. And I'll say the name Albert for me, and he's not in the product. I watched a couple swings of his and I would have put all my money into him. Astro's switch hitting shortstop. not in the product. watched a couple videos, read the stats, read up on him. He would have been a main chase for me. So that's kind of how I. Jaba: Yeah. And something, you know, we've kinda talked about, offline that I think is probably gonna be the most critical takeaway ⁓ from this episode for people like myself who are huge baseball fans, you know, love Bowman, but you know, most of us do not actually work in baseball. We don't have that experience of being, you know, professional scouts. And, you know, for me when I hear you say, ⁓ I look at video, I'm like, okay, well this guy, you know, knows exactly what he's looking for and, you know, I'm never gonna be able to ⁓ you know, kinda analyze video the way he does. Which is true, but when I talk to Jeremy offline about this, you know, Jeremy, what are you looking at in video? Because I think that realizing how simple a lot of this is will make people feel a lot better about kind of attacking it and doing it. Jheremy: Yeah, I mean, go find your Bautista video from 2025. And I'm not saying this is like the end all be all, but you watch that bat speed when he was 16 years old, you're like, that's different. That's something a lot of other people can't do. Now I'm not pacing my whole decision on that because the bat speeds there, I'll buy some shares and I have bought some shares, but also with that big bats becomes big swing and miss with your. Whereas maybe you look at a Johan De Los Santos and you really like the smoothness or the repeatability of the swing, meaning he can, he can get his a swing off. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: A swing being his best swing over the course of several at bats or more more often than not he's putting an A swing on a ball like it's a whole lot of things but you also don't have to over complicate it if you watch a video where somebody pops up and you're like that looks different or they hit a ball 480 feet somebody just hit a ball 480 feet last night where it was ⁓ like otherworldly say what Jaba: Might've been May. I said that might have been May. Jheremy: i think it was you and ⁓ we just like all that's different and i've done that were i watch a video and then i go look at stats and i'm like well that's the guy like albert for me i was i was all in on him in five seconds saw the video saw the tweets on able to go to the other way when looked at a stats and amount of strikeouts to walks has some speeds which hitting outside shortstop Jaba: Okay. So I I think the key takeaway here, ⁓ from kind of what Jeremy is saying, you know, something that was huge for me ⁓ when we were discussing this ourselves, is most of the stuff Jeremy is noting that he pulls from video is not, you know, super nuanced, highly detailed stuff. Obviously this is more of like a surface look and just generally kind of yes knowing a guy and not looking into, you know, particular, you know, minute details. But you know, the two things Jeremy told me he looks for are bad sweet and bad speed and does the swing look good. and for most of us who watch a lot of baseball, are big baseball fans, and I know a lot of guys probably listening to this, you know, a lot of collectors that I talk to, you know, played baseball, whether it be in college or high school, ⁓ you know, you know generally speaking what a good swing looks like, you know what a fast swing looks like. And obviously most of us are never gonna be Jeremy. Jheremy: You have a negative. Jaba: when it comes to the stuff, you know, kind of beyond that, like the little nuances. But I think anyone serious enough where you're listening to this, I think that you can identify those things. And for me, I was like, all right, well like I'm not gonna watch video 'cause I don't know what I'm looking for now. It's like, okay, that's very easy to figure out. You know, it it it's not calculus. You know, it's basically just applying, you know, everyone here watches a lot of baseball. You know, basically does it look like a good baseball player? Jheremy: Yeah, it's not a big scary monster than you thought it was. Great. the part. Yeah. Jaba: And, you know, again, I'm not saying this is gonna be perfect, but I think for people such as myself, ⁓ you know, it makes it a lot less kind of daunting and intimidating when you're looking at these guys where you do probably need to go beyond the, you know, loose scouting report on a 17-year-old with, you know, 60 DSL at bats. You know, I I I think if you want to do well and put serious money into this, I think you owe it to yourself to take that next step and watch some video and for For me, kind of hearing that it's not that scary was a huge thing for me and it makes the release on a whole a lot less intimidating. So I mean in in in terms of research, I think, you know, as we kind of said, you ⁓ you look at the pipeline list, and it's funny for me, because you know, this is basically done by signing bonus, you know, not exactly, but I'm looking at the twenty-five list right now and taking out Roky, the top five are Or all guys that were in Bowman Chrome. 25. ⁓ it was Yosuar, Elian Peña, Chris Rodriguez, Andrew Salas, and Yorgo Batista. I'll throw in Kevin Alvarez. He was sixth. just because he's good. He was a big chase. I mean, of those guys, you know, you're looking at six names. It's like Yoswar is obviously a rocket ship. Alien Peña did skip the complex. ⁓ I'm a Mets fan, you know, I've probably followed that closer than the normal person. You know, he's had a he's had a solid year. You know, it hasn't been great. I think his market's down a little bit. But but you know, there's reason for optimism. Chris Rodriguez, still a lot of swing and miss. I wouldn't say he's like a bust necessarily, but I think he's lost a lot of his shine. ⁓ Andrew Salas, another guy who's lost a lot of shine. Yorga Bautista, people are kinda up in the air on him. And Kevin Alvarez ⁓ was fairly popular at release and he's having a nice season at Single A too. So I I mean if you go off that list, you know, the top guys are usually gonna be pretty good, but it's not like you know, one to one guarantee. Yeah. Jheremy: No, it's definitely not a foolproof plan. Like, I'm gonna go buy a million dollar sign. Jaba: Like And Andrew Salas, Nightmare Year. You know, if you invested a lot in Chris Rodriguez, you're probably not doing too hot. And then, you know, once you get put beyond those names, I mean like Aiden Johnson was twelve, ⁓ he's he's not doing much. Juan Cabada ten, he's not doing much. Michael Corret at nine, I think he's re ⁓ yeah, he repeated the D S L, put up better stats, but you know, repeating the D S L is a bit of a death sentence unless you're Christian Arguellas. and then, you know, on the Jheremy: from the narrative. Jaba: ⁓ on the other side, you know, Delzine was forty six and that's a guy that Jeremy said, you know, he identified immediately, you know, and it wasn't, you know, little scout minutia. It was, you know, this guy's six five, he's seventeen. He put up good numbers in the DSL last year. I mean, he only threw nine innings, but you know, one walk, nine K's, that is, you know, okay. You know, he only walked one guy. Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah, nine and a third, I think. I like the way the body moved on the mound. He's huge, he's young. And the little factor of Red Sox know how to develop arms. He came out this spring, was throwing 100. I kept buying them because people weren't fully caught up to him when he was throwing down in the DSL. No, very complicated, I should say. Yeah. Jaba: Yeah, yeah. And he he's still twenty dollars. I mean, he's in single A now. ⁓ he's made three starts, twelve innings. I think he's just going four innings a pop. ⁓ twelve innings, sixteen K's, five walks. With ⁓ one fifty R he's allowed two rounds. ⁓ this is after forty innings in the DSL where he was excellent. so I I mean, while the rankings are a good loose guideline, you should not be buying based off the rankings. ⁓ you know Jheremy: Yeah. I mean, DeFranc was 40, Breland Antonez was 42 last year. mean, players get better, right? Like, I'm going to say it constantly, like, players get better. Like, and I mean, the other thing too with, you can go back, right? Like, let's go to, let's go to 2024. We have them up looking at them. have Leo. Jaba: Harold Rivas thirty two. DeLos Santos twenty three. Jheremy: Again, getting rid of Roque. have Leo, Paulino Santana, Jose Perdomo, Fernando Cruz, Adolfo Sanchez. Like, they're getting... These guys, you have to remember, like 17, 18 years old when they come stateside. Like, everything they've known is different now. Like, you have the language barrier, the difference of lifestyle, the baseball. Just everything's different. for like... Jaba: Not good. Jheremy: Look at Fernando Cruz last year in rookie ball, hit a buck 65. Now this year, now in his what age 19 year sitting 248 with 14 home runs. Like he's still striking out a ton, but like. Some of these players just need time. And I think that's also like a point of a market inefficiency is that second year DSL or second year Bowman Chrome guys slump. We're like, then they become a thing again and people all of a sudden start scrambling. Like I could be wrong, but I feel like Emil Morales was cheap at one point. And then he came back. Alfredo Duna was a Like Alfredo Duna was a chase. Jaba: It depends how you define cheap, but he was way down. Jheremy: And then he kinda went quiet, and now he's like a guy again. I just think there's moments where... I'm not saying every guy who struggles is gonna figure it out, because that's certainly not true. But I think the more you look, like, there's value to be found in Chrome, and just know the rankings aren't like... the full-on ranking. Like, that's not how it's gonna play out. I can guarantee you that. Jaba: Yeah, and you know, ha has you said, you know, this is sixteen, seventeen year olds, for me it's like, okay, I remember You know, when I went off to college, you know, that life adjustment, living by yourself. Now imagine it's a year or two younger and you know, most of these guys don't speak English, at least, you know, beyond the basics, I don't wanna, you know, speak for everyone. But it's like, okay, well now imagine if you had gone to college a year earlier and, you know, didn't speak the native language and you know, you just got a whole bunch of money to play a sport. I mean that's a pretty insane amount of pressure. and I mean, like Jeremy said, Jheremy: ⁓ Right. Exactly. your whole lifestyle is just perfect. Jaba: You know, you don't wanna see a guy struggle, it's not a good sign, but it's not necessarily ⁓ okay, drop everything and run away from the guy either, because some of these kids it's just gonna take a year of a grace period to figure it out. Jheremy: when I'm Right. And like Chris Rodriguez is still hitting 274 this year with nine home runs. Like he's 64 punches to 18 strikeouts. But you knew you were getting that in the profile last year. Like Andrew Salas was moved aggressively for Salas. Like I think you started here in A-ball, right? Like, yeah, he's he's an A-ball and he's 18. Like he's younger than some of the high school kids just dropped. Right. And like Jaba: Yeah. Something about the Solace brothers. Yeah. He played all of A ball last year as a seventeen year old. He played a full season. Jheremy: Yeah, I mean, 72 walks to 110 strikeouts last year, 39 to 76, 14 bags like 668 OPS like he could still be, he could have just been drafted. He's already got two years of a ball under his belt. Again, I'm not saying like in, in, mean, at the time at the beginning of the year, it was like, or this off season, it's like, don't let what happened to his brother's track. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Dissuade you from buying Andrew and now it's like well now look at his brother like he he was hurt and he was 17 now He's healthy and he's a top-ten prospect again like guys just just differently and I'm not saying again That every player is gonna figure it out and be awesome. It's that's baseball They're not but a lot of guys I think probably jump ship on certain dudes right away when they don't come out raking and I don't think that's necessarily fair Jaba: Yeah. For sure. And it's like, you know, I I think everyone loves Bowman Draft. I don't want to say because it's safe, but I mean with college products, you know, you generally know loosely what you're gonna be getting. I'm looking at ⁓ Wandy Asien, the ⁓ Mets big ⁓ IFA who who's been great in the D F L. He's striking out a lot and the contact rate isn't great. He's sixteen for another ten days. I was just kinda trying to do the math in my head. ⁓ he probably would have been a Jheremy: Yeah. 16 years old. Jaba: either a class of twenty seven or a class of twenty eight in high school. Jheremy: Yeah, this needs 28. Jaba: So if he was in Bowman draft, if J if Wandy Asien had gone, you know, to US college, he would be a guy we'd be looking at in twenty thirty or twenty thirty one Bowman draft. I mean, he'd be four or five years away and he's already playing professionally putting up stats. So it's like these guys are like literally five years behind the guys that were chasing in ⁓ Bowman draft, and that's not saying you should chase one or the other, but you do need to keep that in perspective because I think it's really important because I Obviously you see the ages and you realize, you know, hey this guy's way younger but I think when you say like, ⁓ this guy would have been in twenty thirty one Bowman draft and Jheremy: I'm looking now, he's squarely with the class of 2028. Jaba: Yeah, so he would have been twenty thirty one Bowman draft. If he had gone to college. If he had come out of high school, he would have been in Bowman Draft in two and a half years. So it i it's like yes, obviously you see it and you realize they're young, but it's like if you put it in that frame, it's like a wow, like you know, and I think that that goes to Jeremy's point of being patient on you know, patient. Yeah. Jheremy: No, no. ⁓ if he went to college or something? Yeah. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. Just not with respect to... Yeah. And you hit a ball 116 miles an hour already, Wandy. With wood. Like, that's absurd. Jaba: He's six foot one eighty is sixteen years old. and you know, like I said, the zone contact rate isn't great, you know, the strikeouts are high. If you're hitting a ball, ⁓ you know, he hit one at one sixteen, hit one at one fourteen, I mean that is would you say that that I mean that's elite major league exit feeler, right? 'Cause I I mean obviously you have to replicate it, but I'm thinking of like the hardest hit balls. And it's what, like one twenty one? Jheremy: So, yeah. yeah i mean yeah you know like let's see hardest balls that cast exit velocity the oldest ball 123 by o'neill cruz o'neill cruz john carlos stanton john carlos stanton from 123 to 121 so 116 for a 16 year old yeah you're good Jaba: And like Yeah. And like, you know, if anybody wants to be contrarian, you can say, okay, you know, what are the averages, you know, all that. But like if you have that top end exit velocity at the age of sixteen, has a six foot tall, hundred and eighty pounder, I I I mean, this kid's not done physically developing. He hasn't even been to a stateside weight program yet. yeah, I I mean that that's just a ridiculous eye popping stat. So Jheremy: Sure. That's your peak, like, in game. If you can't appreciate that, you don't like baseball. I found my found my 480 foot home run. was Taruki Saito who I'm big into the NPB and kind of prospecting some of the big guys that come over. You know all 480 feet last night, 112 off the bat and I bought his 2021 Topps Chrome Refractor for three bucks on eBay and they do about a buck 50 now so. That's a win. That's a win. Jaba: Matsu've been scouting him. That's how it's done. That's how it's done, folks. ⁓ they do a hundred and fifty dollars? ⁓ I thought you were saying that the value had gone down fifty percent and they were worth one dollar and fifty percent. Okay. Okay, that the fifty X looks a lot better than a point five X. That's a ⁓ important distinction we're making there. Jheremy: Yeah. ⁓ no, refractors are now up to 150. Yes, sorry, $150 now. Anyhow. Jaba: Yeah, so I mean, I think that that kinda covers, you know, in terms of both what what to look for, how to look into it, and kind of how to consume and interpret the data and you know, whether it's being patient or, you know, kind of putting things in perspective, I think that those are all important points. What else to you kinda stands out with Bowman Chrome releases? Like are there any other kind of key things for you that make it different than other Bowman's or just key things that you wanna kinda get off? your chest with Jheremy: so like before we jumped on I jumped I I kind of created three little lists on the room in front of me or on the paper in front of me right like You had your guys who were cheap at release and it's almost just to show people like look at there were dudes that were cheap at release like Carlos lagrange super cheap. It was like we should have all read the writing on the wall, right? Like yankee flamethrower. Bye Shout out to Antonio Gomez. Go dig him out of your 2021 Bowman Chrome boxes because he's up to 101 with like 18 inches of IVB or whatever in induced vertical break, meaning it's moving like 18 inches across the plate. It's a lot. Devin Fitzgerald was super cheap. Ethan Peco, Saddiel Delzine, Johan De Los Santos, Johnny Severino, Juniper. All were a fraction of what they're selling for now. ⁓ John Gill. Heel? Gill? Jaba: One ⁓ one. I think it's heal. I don't know. Arc Wallace was very cheap, yeah. Jheremy: Arguelles was cheap at the beginning too, I think. had like your guys who were up high from the beginning and kind of settled. Some of them have, I'd be curious how many of them have improved their value from release. You have like Kevin Alvarez, Rainiel Josuar, Cam Schlitler. Schlitler was a perfect storm. Like release right into the playoffs like. Jaba: Where you gotta look across my pulse. Yeah, that that timing was Jheremy: solace co-wiz redemption tommy tanks nate george like those are kind of your guys at release that have maintained ish enough morrie was another one and just kind of like your random guys who have popped random values or kind of pop for no reason will taylor rj shrek luke dickerson's a good athlete ⁓ gabriel davilelo i know people have loved them at the beginning and they've kind of cooled off since And then guys like Alessandro De La Cruz, like people were using him as a givey. And now his bass autos, think, are like 15 ish, maybe 10, 15. You can see on that. Jaba: Yeah. He he he's up 'cause his his stats were nuts. He is quite old, but Jheremy: Yeah, Faribus, like, had a glow up this year. His bowman. Like, his bowman came and we went from buying True Blues at, I'm being facetious here, like 20 bucks and they might be realistic. Now they're doing, now they're doing a lot more than that. Like, there's guys, like, almost everybody at their moment at some point. So, like, I, my... Jaba: He's still way too cheap. I don't think that that's far off. I I don't think that that's crazy. Jheremy: thing would be like, don't go chasing the big names right away. Like I go after that tier two. went after Mikel Coret last year at release and Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: then I sold them because he everybody's like, look, they get bored of the top names and look for the next layer. And he became a hot name on whatnot. And I was able to unload all of it and make money off of them. Like at some point, everybody, not everybody, but damn near everybody I feel has some sort of a glow up. So if you believe in the gold, buy them and wait for the right time to get off the train. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I I think that's a great point. Mm. I mean, I know a lot of people say not to buy Bowman, you know, during the couple weeks or even a month post-release. I I do disagree with that. I think base autos you should not be buying within the first few weeks, even refractors, but I think, you know, and this is kind of a one of my biggest I wouldn't say secrets, but my biggest contrarian opinions. if you can find good color of a guy you love and Jheremy: Right. Yep. Jaba: At a palatable price, buy it. You're never gonna see it again. You're never gonna see it again. Anything that shows up on eBay is going to either be, you know, five times over what you'd like to pay, and it's someone just fielding offers, or the card's gonna be trashed and ungradeable. you know, Connor Essenberg, not a Bowman crumb guy, it doesn't matter. ⁓ you know, this is a crossbowman. Connor Essenberg, I thought he stonk until like a month ago. Nobody wanted him. And now ⁓ Jheremy: because guess what happens? Yeah. Jaba: He's scalding hot. I went to go look at him. On ⁓ on eBay. Zero reds, zero blacks, zero oranges, one gold shimmer available on eBay, and I think one blue. You know I'm not saying to go buy everyone's blue at fifty dollars that's available at fifty dollars, but it's like if you have a guy that you love and believe in, get that color early because it you're not gonna see it again. And if you do, it's either going to not be at a good price, not be a gradable card, or likely both. And to give a better example than Essenberg, you know, Anthony Ianson was my guy in Bowman Draft 25. I was buying blues of his for sub a hundred dollars. Literally Anything that popped up, I was just buying. I wasn't even offering on it because I was like, I don't want someone else buying this. I was just buying it. ⁓ they all came in, most of them got tens, and those were selling for eight, nine hundred dollars. I mean, I bought red lava of his raw for five fifty, which was way over comps, but I was like, this is not gonna show up again. It's a red sox color match. I love this kid. I think, you know, he's polished, he's advanced, and if the fastball picks up, you know, you have a you know two or a three starter on your hands. And I I don't even you know, I I don't like getting into numbers and I don't want to turn this into, you know, me patting my own back. But I did quite well on that. You know, I bought a couple blacks that got tens. you know, if you love a guy early, ⁓ and this is really outside like the top five, I would say, and you see their color and you're like, ⁓ you know, that's not the greatest price, just buy it. Like if you really believe in the guy, ⁓ just buy it 'cause Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: You're not going to see that again. You're not going to get it in gradable raw condition. And you know, if you're right and the guy ends up being good, the price is going to skyrocket. Again, you know, it's tougher looking at you know this checklist, you know, Luis Hernandez, Ju de Asian, Rentaria, those guys are all going to be expensive off the bat. And while I wouldn't say, you know, just ⁓ just go buy all its blues, you know, regardless of how expensive they are, I will say, if those guys play, you know, at even 80% of what they're expected to over the next year, the Jheremy: Right. Jaba: Good color autos are not gonna get cheaper and more common on eBay. They're going to be more rare when they pop up, it's gonna be somebody with it at a exorbitant price trying to take offers and it's probably not going to be something that's gradable. So it's like, you know, if you see a true blue of Francisco Renteria for $300 and it looks good, like I would I would buy that in a heartbeat. ⁓ I wouldn't buy a base auto at like $150 of anybody, which is kinda out of principle. But if you see good color, go buy it because you're probably not going to see it again. That's something I am like very very if you can't tell, you know, I'll pound the table on that, I'll stand by that. I know that that's not, you know, a super ⁓ shared ⁓ amongst, you know, kind of Bowman people, ⁓ like a shared thought, but that is something that I will pound the table on because especially if you're grading, you're never gonna get better results than the stuff that's selling day one. Jheremy: Yeah, because it hasn't passed through hands. yep. Yeah, I mean. Very rarely will you find something a year out of release that's still clean and affordable and of a real prospect. Like I was happened to find a Braille and Doty True Blue on Twitter and I bought it for a hundred bucks, which was like full comp at the time. And well, his market still hasn't picked up to value, but like it's probably closer to a buck 75 ish now, maybe 200. I think a wave just did 120, 130. So like. I was going to say like, when you find that true color and it's affordable and palatable, you're not going to know comps at the beginning. So it's going to be like on your kind of distinction and jurisdiction of what you think it's going to settle at. Like we mentioned the Junikers, like I bought that out of a hundred for a hundred bucks right on release day. Bought a refractor for 50. Like I felt good paying that. I felt like, Hey, if I lose, I'm not going to lose big, but if I win, could win pretty big. So that's kind of how I justified it to myself and kind of what you just said at the same time. So. Jaba: Yep. I I definitely you know, think that that's the case and we're gonna do another episode on grading at some point. We've kinda put it on the back burner with what PSA rates are now. ⁓ you know, grading just isn't gonna be as big of a part of everyone's kind of day to day card activity, ⁓ while this backlog is a thing and while the cheapest option is eighty bucks. So we'll get into grading at some point, but we're not, you know, rushing to get that out. But I do think, you know, something Jeremy said, you know, the Braylon Dowder he bought, you know, a year after release, you know, he was kind of assuming that that's not gonna be gradable. I think you know once you get maybe six to twelve months post release, you know, for me it's like anything I buy, I'm assuming, is probably gonna be like an eight. ⁓ you know there'll be some happy surprises there. Maybe someone just pulled it. ⁓ but you have to assume you know if a card has changed hands a few times it it's like why is that especially on a card you know that's somewhat expensive that you know traditionally people would grade. It's like, okay, well why is this still raw? And I I do think, you know, you have to think about that and in terms of how you value and price it, I think you just have to assume, you know, like if a Theo Gillen gold pops up on eBay Raw, I'm assuming that, you know, that thing is not looking good. Jheremy: My buddy just gemd me that he found out a card show and he was able to gem it. No, no, no, I'm saying like this was a year ago. Like it's wild. Like he got lucky. He was able to look at it in person. Like that's also different if you can look at it. Like so he was, he saw it. He's like, I think this has a shot. He got it. Like he got it cleaned up and got it to gem. So good for him. Jaba: Okay, well, I'm stupid. Yeah. Huge advantage, yeah. Yeah, I mean I think like one lesson I learned last year, around this time, is when I started grading seriously. And, you know, I bought a bunch of Bowman Draft Twenty Four cards. This was August of twenty-five that I gotten at, you know, I was like, wow, you know, these are these are good prices. And you know, I sent them all on a PSA. I think I went like two for eleven on gems, you know, a bunch of sevens and eights. and, you know, that was a lesson I learned that I think is avoidable for many. I think it's probably something a lot of people have done. But then in high Jheremy: Oof. Yeah. Jaba: You're like, ⁓ okay, well that's why they were that's why they were cheap. And you know, if you're buying raw at a certain point past release, you have to assume that you know I'm not saying that the card's trash, but I, you know, you can't be like, ⁓ you know, this has a good shot at a 10. And there's nuance that, like Jeremy just said, you know, if you're at a show and you can look at it ⁓ up close, you know, that's a different case. But ⁓ yeah, just random, unrelated lesson thrown in here. ⁓ if you're buying raw, I Jheremy: something's wrong with it. Right. Yeah. Jaba: I would say n you know, anything from twenty five draft at this point if you're buying it raw, I would say we're getting into iffy territory. Would you agree with that? Jheremy: I mean, especially because it was pretty poo quality controlled from the rip to dimples and print lines galore. yeah. Jaba: Yeah. But like I know people are still opening tons of cases of draft and you know there's new stuff coming out, but I would say for the most part, you know, you have to assume things have changed hands and then it's like, Okay, well why why has nobody graded this? Because this is a card that people would grade. ⁓ so that's kind of a side. What's up? Jheremy: Maybe you could maybe look at it like, the gem rates are so bad so they didn't send it in. Or now that PSA is so expensive, they're not sending in those cards. There are like caveats as to why somebody might not grade a card, but at same time, like, I don't know, just be smart with it. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, and I think that that's, you know, what Jeremy just said is a good kind of example. I'm sure people are gonna say, ⁓ you know, you guys should do a PSA grading episode and I would like to do that, but at the same time there's so many added nuances now with ⁓ the rates, the turnaround times, all that. Jheremy: Yeah. Barriers to it. Like, ties right into our selling. Like, if you put those Sean keys into PSA, those are nice door stops by the time they get back. Jaba: Yeah, I mean I have a couple bulk orders that I sent out in May and there are some I I mean there are some car there's a Jake Cook Orange. I I don't even want that back. ⁓ you know, they can you know, that's a tip for ⁓ Nat Turner. You know, keep it. Keep it, brother. ⁓ th thanks for all you do. Keep that backlog gone. But yeah, I think I mean that kinda I'm I'm kinda tapped out in terms of Bowman Chrome thoughts. Do you have anything else there or Jheremy: I appreciate it. Thank Yeah. No, I mean, we could go into the checklist, which we haven't digested because it literally came out yesterday with some snubs, with some buys, with some sleepers. And I think that can kind of be its own little maybe a 30 minute episode, maybe a longer episode for sure. Let's do it. Jaba: Maybe we're gonna record it right after this. Who knows? Alright. As always, thank you guys for listening. ⁓ much appreciated. Let us know any thoughts, comments, concerns, ideas for the future. Go Mets. Alright, see you guys. Jheremy: No meds. I beat you to that one. Jaba: I know, you did. You were y I saw you were itching to get something out of it as a good boy. I thought that was good too. Jheremy: Yeah. What did you want the other ones to be? Jaba: I'm I'm ⁓ I mean, are you good to keep going? Do you have shit to do? Jheremy: I mean, I always have shit to do, but... Let's go, let's go one more in till one o'clock. One o'clock-ish. Jaba: I don't feel great about doing Bowman Chrome snubs just 'cause I haven't looked too deeply and I'll I'll just be echoing like Frios and Ragsdale. ⁓ if you wanna do that in a couple of days or something. Jheremy: OK. Ragsy. Yeah, that's fine. Yep. A thousand. I Bob put out a snubblestoo, so I kind of stole a couple names he had on there. But Jake, how does he not have Frius on there? Or the other one? Jaba: ⁓ yeah, I'll I'll go. No Frias is insane. Jheremy: ⁓ wait, I'm looking at a different thing. Let me look at a snub list. It has to be on there. Well, there it is. Hitter snubs. Friis was number one. Ragzaal was three. Camcannerella. I don't know that it's necessarily in an order, though. Jaba: Yeah. With you. Was he twenty four or twenty five draft? Yeah. Jheremy: Cam, same year as Aiva. So 25. Jaba: ⁓ he was Clemson, right? A C C Jheremy: Correct. Yeah, something like that. Jaba: I was saying to someone yesterday them waiting to put SynthJ in. What? Yeah, no, I'm saying them waiting like five products to put him in probably saved so many idiots from like financial ruin. Ca I feel like he would have been crazy expensive. Jheremy: He's in. He's in this one. This market's dead. ⁓ god yeah. Because... He still might be. Like the Shotaro Mori effect, right? Like, ⁓ both-handed pitcher, ⁓ my god. Jaba: Yeah, I I know I knew things weren't going great, but I looked at his stats yesterday and that was like Yeah, I I was like they gotta fucking, you know, make a decision with this guy, you know. Jheremy: a near 6 ERA. Jaba: If if the 'cause I I remember the Mariners announced he wasn't gonna do it anymore and that I think it was later that day he got traded. Or the next day. Like this winter they were like, ⁓ he's not doing it anymore And then he got traded and the Cardinals like, ⁓ no, he's still fucking gone. Jheremy: Right, and now he is. Yeah. Jaba: But yeah, that's Yeah, I I almost added something for Chrome where I was gonna be like, you know, if there's like an Asian two way guy, you know, that's that's bait. But I I didn't want it to come off in a racially charged Jheremy: Right. Jaba: And the Jheremy: Yeah. Now, what was the other topic we had? Jaba: ⁓ Bowman Color Explained and our individual top three favorite parallels. Jheremy: ⁓ yeah. Jaba: I think this is a good one. I should pull up the prospect pulse multiples. so yeah. Okay. ⁓ Jheremy: Yes. If you talk about it well enough here, then we can do like some overlay where we put the whole, actually probably not because that's behind a paywall, right? Has he ever put them all together? Jaba: Yeah, here. I I'm gonna text you the picture so that we're both working off the same my fucking phone just like updated and now I just like can't load my text messages. Jheremy: Has he ever put the multiplier out for free? Or no? Jaba: Probably. ⁓ he he puts a lot of shit up. Jheremy: I really need to get rid of Bob's disk thing that I paid for, his website, and just do this one instead. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Like, Bob's just the heat sheet, or whatever he calls it, like... Jaba: Yeah. Which which is useful, but it it's Jheremy: It's more of like a good time to notice Cell because all of the mouth breathers who follow him are just gonna go start buying him. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: No offense. Jaba: Taken. ⁓ Jheremy: That meant more to the mouth breathers. Jaba: Hey, I'm fat, you know, you gotta you gotta get that air no matter how Jheremy: However you can get it. Well, you got a bad ticker, so you need your AR. You don't... Jaba: I do have a bad ticker. I I need the mouth and the nose working over time. I'm like it's like when the whale is trying to get like eat plankton and the mouth is just taking everything in Yeah, I'm just going through the all. Jheremy: You Thanks. Whatever you can get, you're good. Jaba: Sweet, sweet air. I'm gonna go off ⁓ here we go. Now the phone's finally ⁓ working. I'm gonna send you the twenty five draft rubric. Just because I I think twenty six Bowman sucks and it's not Jheremy: Sure. You texting it to me? Jaba: Yeah. ⁓ yeah, I'm texting it to you right now. I I just like that it's, you know, eight months of data versus Jheremy: Right. There it is. You just pull out all your cards and put them on your counter every night or your table every Sunday and just rip from there. Jaba: Yeah, I've started Saturday. I'll just, you know, grab some piles and just yes no it and then I try to get to around like seventy five and then I'll put ⁓ in a sorting tray and then kind of pull out back wall and then I'll make sure I don't have you know, I usually do duplicates but I try not to do like more than two. Jheremy: Nice. Yeah. Jaba: And then when I'm going, I'm like shuff 'cause like there's the back wall but then I'm shuffling through like the other stuff like constantly. 'Cause like there'll be stuff where I'm like, I need to get this up and then there's stuff where I'm like, hm Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah, or if something sells well, you go find another one. Jaba: Yeah, i exactly. Like I'll have like five ⁓ in carries and like once the first one goes like ten dollars over I'll just fucking bang ⁓ out. People people love him. The ba the bases are just like guaranteed like eight dollars of profit. ⁓ the Caceres is too, the ones that I'm buying at sixty, they're selling for like eighty on there. Jheremy: Like the orange did well. Yeah. That's wild. Love that. Jaba: ⁓ all right, I'm ⁓ I'm gonna get rolling if you are. Alright, last one best one. All right. ⁓ gonna market now. Hey everybody, welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator podcast. This is ⁓ your host, Will Jarvis. Jheremy: Yep, born ready. Jaba: Also known as ⁓ Jabba Cards on Instagram and all socials. ⁓ joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of ⁓ Perfect Game Baseball. He's also on Instagram as JGB underscore cards underscore. Gotta remember the second underscore at the end there. ⁓ lots lots going on in that username. But today we are here. you know, we've put out our first three ⁓ modules on Bowman Basics. Today's gonna be number four. Jheremy: Yep. Nailed it. Jaba: And it's gonna be a bit Not necessarily a ⁓ fun conversation. I don't want to say like a more fun conversation because I think we enjoy recording all these. But ⁓ rather than talking about big things like buying and selling, we're gonna talk about something that may not come to your mind initially as equally important, but I think is, you know, something that's important for us to cover, which is Bowman colour and understanding all the variations, parallels, because there's a lot to digest and there's A lot of stuff that you know, once you've been doing it for a couple years, you're like, ⁓ yeah, of course. But a lot of those things are things that aren't really logical necessarily. ⁓ so we're gonna walk you guys through that. I think that this is probably the most crucial episode ⁓ to date if you are new to Bowman and you're just getting into Bowman. I think that this is a great starting point because this is like a foundation that is going to be critical and you can avoid some mistakes that I know I made a lot. lot of. I don't want to speak for Jeremy, but you know, there are gonna be a lot of things we covered today that are just kind of avoidable rookie mistakes, none of which are, you know, disasters or make you an idiot. But part of why I wanted to do this is so that you guys can just avoid, you know, the little mistakes that I made and you know it'll just make your life smoother, especially if you're getting into Bowman. So talking today about Bowman color, again, I don't think I said it yet. This prospect or this podcast Is brought to you by Prospect Pulse. That is prospectpulsev1.com, the best place on the entire internet for all of your Bowman baseball card, you know, investing. you know, data, market data, player data. ⁓ it's just the one stop shop, like I said in another episode. It's like a Bloomberg terminal, but for baseball cards. they're the sponsor of this show and they're actually going to feature quite heavily ⁓ in today's episode because subscribers get access to a lot of great data, ⁓ most notably of which for today, is there are grids for every product release. You can see the multiples ⁓ of Color every color auto based on ⁓ what the base auto sells for. ⁓ we both have that pulled up now. That is one of the key things to the site. and yeah, I think ⁓ I think we'll just get into running through it. Jeremy, you want to shepherd some people here? You want me to walk through it? I I don't Jheremy: So, you got the rainbow, right? And unlike a rainbow, like the most outer ring, the red is more or less the rarest. And you work your way in and you go from five to, I mean, you skip the black because that's not part of the rainbow, which is out of 10 and then orange, yellow, like Roy G. Biv, right? Like the Snoop Dogg song. And it's weird though. Jaba: That's a deep holiday. Jheremy: It's like weird though, right? Because like fives obviously are really good. 25 for the orange, gold's really good. We don't like green. We've all been told we don't like green out of 99, but we love blue out of 150. But it's gotta be true blue, not blue wave. And... We hate purple. We don't like purple, but we love refractors out of 499. Like... Jaba: Not blue shimmer, not blue lava, blue reptilian, no. We do. Jheremy: Why? Because that's what we've been told. That's what everybody's been told. That's what the Bowman forefathers have set forth for us and we don't change. Now you have True Aqua out of 125. You have True Yellow now out of 75. A personal JGB favorite. I love the True Yellows. They've grown on me. ⁓ Jaba: Yep. Looks great with the pirates. Looks real real sharp for pirates. Jheremy: great with the red socks, great with the Rockies. Your face. Yeah, city connectors. Like, it's a lot of like, this is how it is, don't try to make sense of it, and otherwise you might lose money. If you lose logic, you might lose with color. Like... ⁓ Jaba: Yellow for the red sub? Yeah. We make fun of it, but like that is the way it is and it isn't changed. Jheremy: We all adhere to it because that's what comps say, that's what people say. I am curious though, right? Like things after a while start to change and you have like a ⁓ quote-unquote new wave of Bowman people, a lot of new Bowman prospector people. Like does it get to the point where the yellows like get closer to a gold and like does it is it somewhere actually split between a true gold and a true blue? Do the greens ever get love? Greens might not because you can get green autos and blasters. So maybe that devalues it in some people's mind like, huh. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: The guy going to Target can get an auto? Can get a green? No thanks. Like, maybe. I don't know. But like, obviously that's only for the first bowman. But like... Jaba: Yeah. Even even like sparkle autos, I mean, first of all, you know, let's get it confusing as possible. The Speckle, Sparkle, whatever you wanna call it, it's to two ninety nine in the first two releases of the cycle. And then in Bowman Drafted it's to seventy one. And, you know, you're probably thinking, ⁓ there's only seventy one of these. That's desirable. Nope. Nope, I'm looking at the multiple right now. It's to seventy-one. There have been five hundred and nine sparkle sales ⁓ on Prospect Pulse. ⁓ five hundred and nine sales out of twenty-five draft. The multiple is seven point two X. Jheremy: It has like 25 draft. Jaba: a a base. you know you can go you look at true blue to 150 ⁓ there's more than two X of these true blue sells for six point five so it's basically the same basically the same multiple even though there's half the print run. Why does that make sense? I guess you could say that the blue looks nicer and more traditional but like there's no there's no good reason but at the same time you know we make fun of it but that's just kind of the way things are and you know like Jeremy said a lot of new people in Bowman maybe Jheremy: of a baseline. because moment. Jaba: things will change over time. But for the time being, I would strongly advise against trying to kind of take your own path and be like, ⁓ I'm gonna beat the system. Because a lot of people are, you know, their heels are just dug in, and this is what's popular. So I would try to work within those constraints and not try to be the guy beating the system because most likely you will not. And You know, f to give a ⁓ personal anecdote. Last year, when I got really seriously in a Bowman, you know, last fall I was buying green lava autos, green autos to ninety nine, you know, I was getting what I thought were great prices. I was like, okay, well there's only ninety-nine of these, and I'm paying way less for these than, you know, blue autos are going for. That was something that I later learned was stupid and I basically resold all of them and you know started from scratch with you know the kind of knowledge that we're trying to give you in this episode so that you don't do the same thing. ⁓ you know, I'm looking at greens right now. ⁓ the multiple for green to ninety-nine is ⁓ four point seven X base and green lava to ninety-nine is four X base. ⁓ I mean if we look at lower numbered parallels, ⁓ true blue is six point five X again. So the true blue to one fifty. Is, you know, 50% higher than the green to 99. Even Blue Wave, which, you know, as Jeremy just said, is, you know, it's a bit more desirable than some parallels, but it's still kind of in the list that gets poo-pooed a bit. ⁓ blue wave to 150 is 3.8x. So I mean you put that against true green at 4.7. I mean, it it it's very similar. And blue wave is almost equal to green lava value. And even though the number is is you know, fifty one lower for the greens. People just don't like ⁓ Why is that? I don't know. But that's another one where it's just kinda like these rules have been set within the Bowman market and that's like the way it is. You know, Jeremy, I know you have this ⁓ chart pulled up in front of you too. Are there any parallels that kinda stand out to you? I know I've been doing a lot of talking. ⁓ I got on my soapbox about the greens versus the blues. Are there any kind of mismatches to you? Or is there anything that jumps out where you're like, you know, that doesn't make sense, but that is the way it is? Jheremy: Like it. I mean, I'll say it, I'll plug it to go sign up for prospect polls, screenshot this, make it your background if you're going to a card show, like your wallpaper and just for an idea. Like you got a general like. Jaba: Definitely. Jheremy: ideology of how it goes. Like I think it's wild that Sapphire goes for less. Like more often that Sapphire is not as valuable because it's impossible to get. It's like you will not get an EQL to buy a box on secondary markets, like three times a markup. And then you pull an auto and it's worth nothing. Like I just think there should be some sort of a premium there for, for that product for Sapphire. Just looking at like the red Safis, like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Jheremy: Like, wait. Shout out Delang, shout out OneLoVato. Like, 44.5 for a red sapphie compared to a true red of 70.6. Like, I get that, true red. Like, that's the alpha of the room, right? But like, to be closer to double than equal is just kind of wild to me, personally. mean, like, red sapphires behind a red lava and barely ahead of a red extractor. Jaba: And they're beautiful cards. I I love the look of the sapphires. I I think that they're They're beautiful. Yeah. Jheremy: Personally, I like the X-Fractors. I think they're really sweet looking cards. personally, I like those more than Waves. I like them more than the Lavas. And then I think the other thing that kind of stands out is how much more people like the Bubblegum Snack Pack comparative to the other three. Like, the other three are equal at like 27, 28, and Bubblegum's at 35 and a half. I agree. Jaba: Yeah. I think we're cool. Yeah. I think it's 'cause it's pink and it kinda looks red. That's my I don't know if that's a genius take or an obvious Jheremy: I agree that the pink of it, for sure. I think, I don't know, do think it's the coolest looking one, kind of, maybe. Maybe I'm wrong there, I don't know, personal opinion. But I think the pink definitely helps it. Jaba: I guess. Yeah. Yeah, I I I think snack packs, I mean there's not enough there to make it its own episode, but snack packs are a bit of a different beast and you know, valuing those. Generally I think of them ⁓ you know, somewhere between orange and black, depending on the player. I mean, looking at it now, they're pretty much in line with black. Bubblegum's actually over the other three variants, peanuts, popcorn, and sunflower seeds, are under true black. But, you know, I usually think of them as closer to orange, but the data is telling Jheremy: Okay. Jaba: It's closer to black, yeah, they nestle in somewhere there. And it's definitely I would say as someone who has pulled some snack pack cards and tried to sell them, they are a lot less liquid. I mean, I'd rather have a true orange, even if it's technically less valuable. ⁓ just because true orange is one of those that everyone loves. I love true orange. And Jheremy: Great. Right, I was going to say. Jaba: You know, basically any big Bowman buyer is gonna be all over a true orange. I think a lot of the big Bowman buyers and you know, this isn't me throwing shade at people, I kinda get why, you know, it's not traditional, but a lot of big Bowman buyers will turn up their nose at it completely. ⁓ no matter who it is. You know, maybe if it's Connor Griffin, they'll take a look. But like Jheremy: because it's serial numbered to five, but even then it's like, this is feels gimmicky almost in terms of like, like I buy them, love them. have a John Gill PSA 10. have a Brandon Compton PSA 10. Like I think they're sweet looking cards. Kind of in the same breath as like a fire Fractal numbered out of three. I feel like. Yes, but like. Jaba: Yeah, like it it the value is not reflective of what you would think. Yeah. Aren't those retail only? Jheremy: Out of threes, you have the snack packs. Now you have the pack-fractor autos in 26 that are pretty sweet. The international variation autos. The black and black and white shimmer with the red ink autos. Like there's other gold ink. I forgot about gold inks. Like Jaba: Yeah. Yep. We got gold ink here on our checklist. Those are equal to ⁓ those are almost equal to They're basically between black and red. Gold Inks on 186 sales sell for 43.2x a base auto, while true black is at 29 and true red is ⁓ at 70 and change. So the gold inks, ⁓ that was something they introduced that was new in Bowman Draft last year. It was yeah, it was Bowman Draft. Jheremy: ⁓ Chrome. ⁓ draft. Yep. The International's word. Jaba: I think they hit the ball out of the park with those. They look sick. They look sick in person. Even cooler. Jheremy: hope the marker is better, the marker quality. I've never held one, but... Jaba: Well, in in twenty five draft the marker was kinda crappy. And I know that most of the autos looked bad, but I think they fixed it in twenty six. ⁓ Jheremy: That's I'm saying. Yeah. Good. I mean, not to go off a tangent on snack packs, I think there's cool cards. They've grown on me a lot. I have a Cameron Millar Snack Pack Auto. ⁓ They're sweet cards. And at the end of the day, they're numbered out of five. You could look at them like, they're numbered out of 20, because they're just four different parallels out of five. Like if you were to just lump Snack Pack all together. But you could do that with oranges or anything, so. Jaba: Yeah. I I mean i it's kinda one of those things and this goes back to one of our kind of mission statements here, ⁓ at the Scout and the Speculator Podcast, which is collect what you like, first and foremost. I mean, don't obviously if you're looking at this purely as an investment and trying to make money, I would say that we lay those guidelines out, but I think most of us we're trying to make some money, but we're also just trying to collect cool cards, and basically the reason we're trying to make money off of it is to collect those cool cards. Jheremy: all of the Bowman guidelines, right? Jaba: If you like snack packs, go buy snack packs. I mean I think it's a good deal for a card out of five. ⁓ if you want to go sell it, there's gonna be less people that want to buy it. But if you like it, buy it. Jheremy: You know what I like that people don't like? Printing plates. I think they're awesome. ⁓ Without those, you're not getting the card. You get the auto version, you get the ones that are, what is it, inversed, like opposite here, like puts your brain in a pretzel a little bit. Like I like printing plates. I know what are some of the other ones out there? You got pearls, you got Jaba: I think they're cool. Yeah. Pearl I don't I think pearls are ugly. I think they've discontinued pearls. Jheremy: Yeah, I like pearls too. Maybe at this rate, right? Like I haven't, they haven't done them in a couple of releases. I think 25 Chrome was the last time they've had them. So maybe they'll be back for 26 Chrome. I didn't, I didn't notice them on the checklist. I think they're cool looking. The ones that are done well, some of them like are really faint. Last year's looked pink. So. Jaba: Yeah. Yep. Yeah. I mean i it kinda looks like they were trying to do black and white and the printer died. Jheremy: Hmm. Jaba: But ⁓ one one thing I'll jump in with here. I mean this is kind of a looser episode, just sharing opinions mostly. ⁓ one thing I learned ⁓ that I wish I had known initially, when you're buying Bowman boxes, The variant with lesser autographs, so that'll be hobby for you know, the flagship release if you wanna call it that. The one in April or May, that'll be hobby. ⁓ Chrome only has one. ⁓ you know, one style. ⁓ so this applies to that. And for jumbo of Bowman Draft, the three auto one where there's super jumbo with five. only in the lesser autograph version can you pull true orange autographs. And only in the lesser autograph version can you pull snack packs. ⁓ I think snack packs are around one in four cases, five cases last I saw. ⁓ you know. Jheremy: You know. Jaba: I think that it's a bit ⁓ You know, unknown. ⁓ I there's that guy on Twitter who does great work with the checklists. I think Slab Squatch. Yeah. he's ⁓ he kind of reverse engineers a lot of like the math on the print runs. ⁓ that's a great follow. Go follow ⁓ I don't know if it's at SlabSquash, but just search Slab Squatch Bowman and you know that's a really useful account. I don't even know the guy, but very useful account. Jheremy: lamp swatch. Yeah. Jaba: but you know, I think that that's something important to know if you're buying boxes. And for me it's like, you know, you see the box that has more autos and you're like, okay, well I'm gonna pay for that because the auto per dollar is better on the more expensive boxes. Even though they're more expensive, the you know, if you do the math, the per auto breakdown is gonna actually be cheaper. ⁓ but you can't pull true oranges, which, you know, you're not gonna pull a ton of those, but I'd like to at least have the option. You know, snack packs are only in And something, you know, that I have heard that is I I believe to be shared opinion. There's no actual math or data behind this. But I have heard that a lot of like the non premium autos are more heavily in the more auto product. So like you'll get more speckle, ⁓ aqua, ⁓ Jheremy: Right. I've got to fill it out, right? Jaba: purple green and then the hobbies, you know there's still a good chance that you open it and you just get a base auto. But you do have that chance at oranges and when you do get color from, you know, stuff I've read from people smarter than I, ⁓ the general breakout, you know, per case, you're getting more premium color. So that's something that, you know, again with Bowman just goes against, you know, what you would kind of think looking at it. ⁓ but the the lesser auto variant, ⁓ you know, now if I'm opening boxes, that's the only Jheremy: Hmm. Jaba: ⁓ stuff I'll buy for breaks, you know. I try to only get into those. I don't know if you feel as strongly as I do, Jeremy. Jheremy: Yeah, I mean you do more breaks than I, but like, people will see it and go like, I'll get the most bang for your buck, but I also think in that same breath, kind of, like wave one of blasters when 27 Bowman comes out, like we've seen it now for two years in a row, like that first wave of blasters are loaded, like, like loaded. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah, not. Jheremy: with animes with all the short prints case hits like and that's the only one obviously you get blasters we're seeing more and more megas now they did draft megas last year for the first time Jaba: Yeah. I I do like that at least the draft megas, you know, you're not pulling the same autos. ⁓ so Jheremy: Yeah, Like they had Asia exclusive, which was what Omega was prior. Harder to kind of get because they came from Asia so that you couldn't readily find them. But if it was a draft guy, you kind of knew like, OK, like here's a couple of dollars more, nothing huge. But now you can get them and go get them off the shelf of Walmart Target and kind of let's everybody play at least in that bucket of Bowman draft as opposed to spending 500 bucks a hobby. Or jumbo. Jaba: Yep. Yeah. So I I think I'm just gonna quickly run through kind of ⁓ what I see to be the hierarchy of Bowman's and kinda the when I'm looking at at cards for an investment, you know, these are kind of the ones that I am zoned in on. Again, if anything not mentioned here, I'm not saying I don't buy ⁓ but it would probably have to be a better deal for me to buy ⁓ or it would have to be a guy that I love. Where, you know, with those guys I'm buying anything that's a good deal, or no, even up to comps. But I would say so Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: You know, we kick off with the refractor out of $4.99, the traditional look, you know, nice pretty rainbow when you look at it under the light. That sells for two point two X a base. So I mean the way I look at it usually is if I can get a refractor for double or less a base auto, I'm happy with how I'm coming away. And You know, I think the multiple for guys that are a ten dollar auto, you know, the refractor will usually sit a little bit at like, you know, seventeen eighteen. And then the guys that are hundred dollar base autos, you know, the refractor will be more like two fifty. again, you know, these are kind of loose mental guidelines I try to abide by, but at the same time, ⁓ there is a bit of nuance. Jheremy: Obviously, they're dependent. There's some guys who have turns out don't have base autos and refractors the lowest they have like little things like that to know. But yeah, for general rule of thumb, just quick math. If you're in a room and whatnot and you're like, ⁓ I know his base auto does about 20. This refractors going to end at 30. Like, OK, I got some meat on the bone left. Jaba: Yeah, I I I think like knowing your multiples is critical, like Jeremy said earlier, you know, make this your background when you go to a card show. So at a certain point it's like, you know, this stuff is so helpful for off the top of your head. You know, it's not like you have to learn every player's market and each individual price. It's like if you know roughly what every guy's base auto is worth, you can then valuate, you know, anything kind of on a dime. ⁓ you know, like we just said with Refractor. Okay. Jheremy: Just like. Mm-hmm. Jaba: Okay, well this refractor's at you know 1.75x the base. That's a good deal. so we start with the refractor, then we skip kind of right to the true blue, which is at 6.5. I think true blue is probably the most popular of all the parallels because I think it is the first ⁓ if you want to call it premium color parallel that people look at you know more on the investing side. And you know, while it's kind of like the first premium one, it's obviously the most accessible one. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: as well. ⁓ those sell at six point five X a base. I usually try to think of it more as like five to six. ⁓ but again, you know, that's kind of me looking for the best deals. ⁓ and the true blue, you know, like I said, I think it's the most Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: affordable, obviously, of the premium ones and with that that means it's probably the most liquid, I would feel pretty comfortable saying, just because most serious collectors, ⁓ unless you're talking about, you know, Jesus Mate, where, you know, that's not in a range where I can buy that. Jheremy: Right. Jaba: You know, most guys that's, you know, somewhere between your comfortable or like the high end of being comfortable. So you got the true blue, and then you go right you just fly past green, yellow, sparkle. You know, do not do not pass go, do not collect two hundred dollars. You go right to gold. ⁓ true gold to fifty, which is twelve point seven X. So it's basically just double blue. A little under double. When I'm looking, I basically just double it in my brain, you know, between gold and blue. I'm just like, all right, well, it should be like a 2x spread. That's true gold. Now you're kind of getting more into high roller territory, although with you know some lesser guys there are great deals to be had. Then you go again to true orange, which is the next one up, and that's 22x. So again, a little under ⁓ a two X jump from gold to orange. But again, like in my head I kind of look at it as like, you know, if I have a base and I'm at a show Alco Refractor is two you know, I'll basically look at blue is five, gold is ten, and orange is twenty. ⁓ so orange is twenty-two. ⁓ then you go to black, which is borderline premium parallel, I would say. I think it's more popular. Black is at twenty-nine point two. ⁓ so it's basically one point five X orange. ⁓ so you're kinda ditching your two X. But ⁓ and then from orange to red it you go from twenty two to seventy. So you kinda triple when you go to red, but I would say ⁓ reds are so rare and unique where that's kinda where I would say that the multiples aren't you know, 'cause it's like there's five of You know, if someone wants to sell it, they can kinda name their price. Jheremy: don't even matter honestly like Yeah. Jaba: You know, it's kinda how you value it. And then ⁓ just for fun here, on seventeen superfractor sales, ⁓ Jeremy, without looking, would you like to guess the multiple over a base autograph for superfractor on seventeen sales? Jheremy: It's gotta be over 100%, right? Jaba: ⁓ yes. Jheremy: I'm just thinking like a five dollar base auto, like you're still spending more than 500 on a super, I would think. Less than 150? Or is it more? More? 180? Holy shit, okay, yeah. I wasn't even close. Jaba: Yeah. Nope. Mark. Two sixty one. So I mean I guess that means if a guy's a ten dollar base auto, his super is worth twenty six hundred dollars. Which Yeah. Jheremy: I'm it's weighted, like if you have a sale on Jake Monroe compared to Eli Willits, it's probably averaging. Jaba: Right. Right. You're gonna and there's seventeen sales, so I mean it is probably like a Willets or something like that, where it's a exorbitant number. Again, superfractors are their own beast. I don't own any. I don't know, Jeremy, do you own any superfractors? Jheremy: the signal. I got... one. It's not a first though, it's a Johnny Farmelo third year. I don't know, it came- it found its way to me. I didn't go seeking it. Jaba: Sure, why not? Yeah, so I I mean supers are their own beast. ⁓ I just kind of included ⁓ because it's a you know, the peak. Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. That's a fun, like you're not gonna get one on like more often than not, like 2025 Bowman draft. Jaba: I don't even know if there's any on ebay right now. I I think that might be what you're looking for. Jheremy: So funnily enough, funnily, ⁓ Jake Monroe just sold August 9th. Auto in a nine. Jaba: Auto. Let me guess. ⁓ I have a red ten of his. I I don't think I'm gonna like this. twenty twenty four hundred dollars. Okay. Okay, my re my my red ten might not be dead. That's ⁓ that's good news. Jheremy: Here we go. Three grand. So. Max Bell you sold for $17.69. So mean those two alone there's like your $26 average honestly like roughly. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause Bellue Bases do like four or five bucks. That might honestly be over. Jheremy: No, Caleb Wing Bowman, or Super Non-Auto, sold for $11.50. No auto. Jaba: He's tough 'cause he doesn't have an auto. I think that there's a conversation to be had between, you know, valuing a auto super versus a non-auto. But, you know, that's not a sandbox we play in, and I think most people don't. So, you know, that's not at the top of our mind. All right. To wrap up Jheremy: No. got two more real quick. Real quick, Devon Taylor, your boy. What do think he sold for? Yep. And a nine. Jaba: Auto? When Jheremy: June 11th, so right before he blew up. 82, 55. And then Ethan Frey sold for 6,100 June 6th. Jaba: ⁓ that was before I broke out. Thirty five. Yikes. Jheremy: So Billy Carlson, 27 and a half K on golden. ⁓ oof, Max Bellew resold. Max Bellew is a resell. The first sale was May 4th for almost four grand. And it just... Jaba: That's someone's someone's writing that bad boy off. Jheremy: So they were both sold through Golden. So it sold for almost four grand and then 1769 and it's a 10 as well. Super auto. So. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause he got hot in June and then he died. He didn't actually die, he he got Jheremy: Yeah, well... Again, not the sandbox I'm playing in, so... Jaba: Yeah, these are just fun numbers to ⁓ you know stare at. But ⁓ before we Exactly. Jheremy: At the end of the day, select what you like, get the colors you like. If you're looking to resell, you kind of have to play by the rules of the Bowman Club. Jaba: For sure. ⁓ to wrap up here, ⁓ Jeremy, what are your and this is purely from a collector's standpoint, this is not from ⁓ investment advice, not a you know, this is what I'm told to do by you know, the the lizard people running Bowman. you know, what are your just top three favorites as a Bowman guy? Jheremy: Yeah. I love the 71s. I mean, true blue, because why wouldn't you? And honestly, like, I'm down for a good snack pack. Like. Jaba: Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, you are a smack like it. Jheremy: I'm not seeking them out, like, I think they're short enough printed where you can get them really cheap, but we'll throw that out. We'll throw those parallels, throw the pearls, throw the internationals out. I'm going to go yellow, true yellow, true blue, and 71s are my personal favorite. Jaba: Yeah. What's the gimme give me ⁓ give me a three two one? Jheremy: ⁓ number one seventy one seventy one blue yellow for my favorites Jaba: I I do like the seventy ones. I think I've gotten too jaded on them because of, you know, like I was saying earlier, the value doesn't really match up with what it should, but I I do think that the sparkle is cool. I mean maybe that's just like me having you know, I'm kinda like a puppy. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well I will I will go I think my number Jheremy: If you lose on them, you're gonna hate them, Yeah. And nobody knows why they're numbered out of 71. Like, they just are. What about for you? What are your three? Jaba: Coming in at number three, I'm gonna go Ooh, actually. Number three, I'm gonna go black sapphire out of ten. I think they look sick. It looks like, you know, like cracked ice almost. ⁓ I think that those look really cool. I usually only buy autos, but if there's a guy I like and there's like a non auto, Jheremy: Yup. Yup. Have a Dorchies. Jaba: A guy we both love. He got bombed last time out, but Really good after ⁓ he was a major player in our first podcast. but yeah, black sapphire I think looks really cool and you can get the non auto ones for cheap. I'll put that in at number three. I think number two I gotta go true orange. I think it probably relates to me being a Mets fan. I think any Met that I can get a true orange of, which unfortunately is not a ton because the Mets market is so popular, ⁓ where you can't really get deals and I try to keep, you know, business and pleasure separate. Jheremy: Yeah Jaba: So I actually really don't collect Mets because then if they're bad, it sucks in real life and for cards. It's like a double whammy. ⁓ but I think the true oranges are just so beautiful. ⁓ they're obviously quite quite rare. But I think they're awesome. So I'll go true orange at two. I'm gonna go true blue at one. I think it's like the classic. ⁓ you know, when I think of a Bowman parallel, I just think of a true blue auto. ⁓ Jheremy: to do a little bit. Yeah. Yeah, same. Jaba: I think, you know, like I said earlier, it's the most liquid, which, you know, isn't part of my criteria here. I just think it's pretty. I think, you know, a lot of teams color match with the blue. I just think it looks sharp, it looks nice, and ⁓ yeah, that's my that's my favorite. Any ⁓ any other thoughts on Bowman color, parallels, whatever you want to get off your chest before we wrap up here, or is that have you said your piece? Jheremy: I should have made Superfactor my number one just to be an idiot. Jaba: My first Bowman, superfractor. Yeah, i i exactly. ⁓ that's our ⁓ Jheremy: My first homing in Papa's was from like, those are my three favorite chances. That's all I connect, that's all I'm going for, and Black Paper ⁓ 101s, which I have in that bar for some reason. Jaba: I was I was in I was in a break recently and someone pulled a ⁓ black paper one on one Gavin Fiend non-auto and nobody realized that it was a one-on-one. I think the b the the breaker claimed he knew. ⁓ I forget who it was, but he kinda put it on the back and he was chuckling, and then like five minutes later someone was like, Is that a one-on-one? And he was like, Yeah, I was waiting for somebody to notice it. It wasn't even the guy who hit it. The guy who hit it was like, Wait, what? Jheremy: Thanks for the day. Hmm. This is how we know. Gotta love the head. Jaba: But all right, well that wraps up today's I keep forgetting what they're called. Bow not Bowman bits. Bowman basics. Jheremy: Women basics. Jaba: ⁓ that wraps it up. ⁓ thank you guys all for listening. Let us know ⁓ you know, on socials or wherever. If you have any thoughts, comments, complaints, direct those to Jeremy ⁓ or ideas for future episodes. You know, we're here to be a resource for you guys. That's why we're doing this. ⁓ and 'cause we have fun doing it. But yeah, just ⁓ don't be a stranger and ⁓ go Mets. Talk to you guys next time. Jheremy: Yep.