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Jewish Safety, Gaza Strategy, and Coalition Scenarios · Israel Policy Pod

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Shalom and welcome to Israel Policy Pod.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: I'm your host, shani Reichman, the Director of Strategic Initiatives and of IPF Fatid at Israel Policy Forum, and I'm joined by Neri Zilber, a journalist based in Tel Aviv and policy advisor at Israel Policy Forum.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: How's it going, neri?
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: Hi, shani, it's great to see you, since we're now, just to remind everyone, a video podcast, so you're coming to me live and direct from Midtown Manhattan.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: It's great to see you.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you survived those rocket attacks from Syria this week.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: The Syria attacks I mean they hit the Golan Heights but the Houthis still keeping us on our toes.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Thankfully, none have gotten through since that really bad one.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: What over a month ago that hit in the vicinity of Ben-Gurion and messed up a lot of the foreign carriers arriving and departing from Israel?
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Look, there are worse issues in the world, but it is a major issue here still.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: But the Houthis are there.
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: The Gaza war obviously still ongoing, which we'll get into in detail, trust me.
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: But I actually, since I have you here, shani, I wanted to use this opportunity to give a lot of our listeners and now watchers, who come from all over the world, not necessarily from the United States, not necessarily from even the American Jewish community, but really all over the world, whether Europe, the Middle East Asia and we get a lot of responses from all over the world, whether Europe, the Middle East Asia, and we get a lot of responses from all over the globe to give us a sense of what it's like for the American Jewish community these days, given the horrific, horrific attack over the weekend in Boulder, colorado, and that came two weeks after the heinous terror attack in downtown DC that killed the two Israeli embassy staffers, yaron Lashinsky and Sarah Milgram Really heinous.
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: And that obviously came after what was it?
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: The attempted arson of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's gubernatorial mansion.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to turn the tables on you from the start, shani.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: You usually ask me what it's like on the front lines here in Israel, given the past 20 months of war.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: What is it like from your vantage point?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So just to give a brief overview, on Sunday there's an organization called Run for their Lives, which is a walk or a run to bring awareness to the hostages campaign to bring them home from Hamas captivity.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: And on Sunday there was a walk that probably happens every Sunday almost around the country in Boulder, and it was attacked.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: There were mostly elderly people in their 70s and 80s who were attacked.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: One of them was a Holocaust survivor, attacked by Mohammed Soleiman, an Egyptian who arrived in the States on a tourist visa and overstayed it, and he lit these people on fire.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: You can see videos of them actually going up in flames.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: He was planning this attack for over a year, they said, and he yelled end Zionists.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: He told the police he wanted to quote kill all Zionist people and wish that they were dead.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: So, regardless of any cautions from the police, it's very clear this was motivated by hatred for Israel and is another attempt of many to import the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into the United States, which is something we caution against very regularly.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: And of course, it's coming just two weeks after an American Jew and Israeli were killed at the DC Jewish Museum and I have to be honest, I'm not confident that those outside of the Jewish community really get it or understand that this is pure anti-Semitism and an active decision to hold all Jews accountable for the conflict happening in Gaza right now.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: And I say this for a few reasons.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: First of all, I've spoken to many people as you know, my job is mostly talking to people about this and nobody's hearing from friends outside of the Jewish community, nobody saying how are you doing Checking?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: in yeah, really across the board.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, I hear once or two I've asked at events that I that I speak at too, so I have a pretty large sample size, pretty large sample size.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: You hear politicians weighing in, of course, because that's what's required of them, but beyond that, I don't think people see it as attack on Jews.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: They just see it as one other piece of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which I think is a problem.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: And you can add to that the media reports of the museum shooting routinely list them as Israeli embassy staff, despite the fact that they were targeted purely for being at a Jewish museum event.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: There is no evidence that the terrorists actually knew that they were Israeli diplomatic staff at all.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Them being targeted had nothing to do with their work status as part of the Israeli foreign ministry and everything to do with them being associated with Jews and the Jewish museum and Jewish event.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Ok.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: So I think that that's something that's outside of the discourse beyond the Jewish community and right now every Jewish organization I know, including ours, is having very serious conversations about how we're going to secure our events, how we're going to keep our staff safe, how we're going to keep our constituents and our members safe.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: We're getting tons of questions from people saying what are you doing to make sure that your spaces are safe for us?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: And it's a very scary time for all of us to make sure that your spaces are safe for us, and it's a very scary time for all of us.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I think that at this point, most American Jews recognize that we will always be at risk as long as we are associated with Jewish spaces, as long as we are visibly Jewish, and that's just one of the unfortunate circumstances of our identity here that we have to grapple with.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: There are certainly talks of should we keep going to Jewish events, but I don't take them seriously because after the terror attack in Pittsburgh you might remember 2018, the Tree of Life synagogue a massive shooting in a synagogue.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: There was a show up for Shabbat campaign.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Synagogues were packed.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I remember very vividly being on the Upper West Side and going to shul with a line around the block to go to Kabbalah Shabbat services.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: I promise that's never happened before.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: So I think the headline here is, since you're a journalist, jews are going to keep being Jewish, as we have always done, regardless of what's happening.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: But it's important to say that I do think it could get worse that I do think it could get worse.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: And while many protests against Israel use legitimate slogans and are not anti-Semitic and are really just about, you know, justice for Palestinians as they see it, there are also many, many, many who chant to globalize the intifada, to find justice and end the war by any means necessary.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: These are direct quotes to bring the war home and these slogans are very clear incitement of violence, and this is our.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: This is us seeing those translate into action in real time and denying the connection between the incitement and the use of really horrific language.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Just the only way that we can actually nip this problem in the bud is by recognizing that and saying this is actually the manifestation of anti-Semitism in 2025.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: This is what it looks like.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So that's it for my side of the ocean.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Very well put, Shani, and I am curious.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously I wanted to get your perspective on this, but you're also very uniquely positioned because not only are you an American Jew working for an American Jewish organization, but also IPF's ATEED program literally is across North America, so your job is to actually be in touch with the entire continent and people all over America and even in Canada.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: So when you talk about increased security or trepidation in terms of hosting Jewish events, are you not just IPF, but is the American Jewish community taking active measures to actually make people feel safer?
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm curious about that.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I must have been invited to two dozen webinars hosted by different Jewish organizations the alphabet soup of organizations, as we call it over the past few weeks.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: People are taking it very seriously.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: We work in partnership.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: That's one of our main organizational values here.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I work with dozens, or, honestly, over 100 organizations in the Jewish community across this country and across Canada.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Everybody's taking this seriously.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Everybody's thinking and talking about this constantly.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I see immediate changes.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: As I said earlier, you're not going to eliminate the risk.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: This event was very high profile at the DC Jewish Museum.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Ok, there I genuinely believe there was nothing they could have done better.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Ok, there was enormous security for this event.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: So if an event like this that was super high profile, that had a ton of security I'm sure the capital police were involved in securing the location ahead of time OK, there's very little you can do at this point.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: No-transcript.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: It was an AJC event.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: I am confident they did their due diligence.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I don't question that for a second.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: There is at a certain point.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: You know, it's not on us and our community to have massive high walls and not allow anybody into our spaces.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: It's on everyone else to ensure this type of violent anti-Semitism doesn't exist in our country doesn't run rampant.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: So the burden being placed on us in America to be, you know, having to wall ourselves off and have armed guards outside of every Jewish preschool and every JCC and every community center, is part of the problem.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Well, those armed guards have been there for years, if not decades, for this very reason.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: But, given the events of what just the last few weeks, like you said, hopefully the authorities, whether local and even above local, are doing what they need to be doing to nip this in the bud and, like you said, remarkable that it's happening in America in 2025, but maybe not that remarkable that it's happening in America in 2025.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately not.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: I just want to make clear there is a connection between how we're seeing anti-Israel activists behave and the things we're hearing them say and what's happening here and recognizing that rhetoric.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: It doesn't mean shutting down protests, but it means acknowledging that there's a connection here.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: We need to be calling that part out.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: We need to be calling out the incitement before we end up having to just call out the violence that occurs as a result of it.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: So that's what I'm hoping to see more from politicians to across the political spectrum.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: Politicians and regular folk.
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: And regular folk Hopefully yeah and look.
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: I would love to see that, but I won't hold my breath no, but that's even more concerning when you said that, um, I've heard similar things, uh, not in recent weeks, but going back to um earlier moments in the war, uh, where people didn't reach out to their jewish sometimes, in many cases even very close friends to see how they were doing in the aftermath of October 7th.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Um, either they weren't aware, or they didn't care, or they I mean, let's not sugarcoat it Maybe they thought Israel had it coming, uh, for whatever reason, and uh, uh, I've heard many cases of uh friendships um being being severed because of that, because, uh, there was no, there was no outreach, there was no empathy and compassion.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Um, again, as we try to do um most of the time, if not all the time, to have empathy and compassion for all sides, without getting too too deep into it.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: I am someone who spends their whole day organizing spaces for young American Jews to talk about Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: I cannot emphasize enough how many people showed up after October 7th saying I have never wanted to talk or think about Israel.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: But I was pretty shocked when not a single person called to check in on me, despite me maybe being Israeli, maybe having tons of friends and family in Israel, but at the very least being a Jew.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So yes, to everything that you were saying, it's very similar now.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: But on the one hand, I can understand why people sat there and said, ok, it happened far away, it's in Israel.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: It's not my business to reach out to every Jewish person I know, even though perhaps it was, but now it's happening on our shores.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: So there's, really no justification for not reaching out With that, maybe we should move to your side of the world, Neri.
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: To my side of the ledger, absolutely, and look, I'll just tie up the American side of this conversation and transition to the Israeli side of this conversation by saying look, criticizing Israeli government policy is what many of us do on a daily basis and that's fine, that's legitimate.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: What isn't legitimate is anti-Semitic rhetoric, behavior, slogans and definitely terror attacks against people just because they happen to be Jewish in America or anywhere else.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: Major difference, major difference.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the humanitarian aid situation in Gaza, because I think a lot of what we're seeing in the States is reactions to what people are seeing on the ground, and the headlines here are dominated for several weeks by the rollout of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation and massive I think miscommunications is probably the way to describe it, or debacles is another way that are coming out of the situation on the ground, as these conflicting reports emerge from the IDF, from major media outlets.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: What is the purpose of this new mechanism?
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: Why does this new initiative exist, that is, to distribute aid without the United Nations, without traditional NGOs?
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: How did this emerge?
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: So to go start from the very beginning and we'll get into the controversy surrounding this new aid model and really the controversy surrounding the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Look for most of the war, israel whether the government or the military has said, claimed, stated consistently that UN and other international aid agencies moving aid into Gaza were helping prop up and perpetuate Hamas rule and governance in the strip and that Hamas was siphoning aid for its own fighters, its own fighters' families, and then also taking aid to sell in the black market and through that, whether financially and otherwise, even kind of based, like socially, to control the population, that this aid mechanism through the UN, was elongating the war and that Israel wasn't able to seriously put a dent into Hamas rule in the strip.
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: Now, going back, I don't want to say to the beginning of the war, but damn near in the early stages of the war, definitely over a year ago, there were various proposals, ideas floating around inside the Israeli system about how you create an aid distribution mechanism that you could better control and that you essentially separate between the population and Hamas.
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: And, long story short, they ultimately landed, a few months ago, on this idea of aid distribution hubs located all across Gaza, essentially being run by US private security firms.
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: Another word for it is mercenaries, although they don't like that word, not one bit.
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: But essentially it's private security, ex-us military, ex-whatever other military in the world that are actually well in the private sector.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: So that was the idea to have these aid distribution hubs set up all across Gaza, and they would also be guarded by the Israeli military, by the IDF, and through that you have more control over how aid is distributed around the Gaza Strip.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Now this will be, I think, a constant theme of this episode.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: If you talk to UN officials and other aid agencies, they'll say you know, the IDF has never showed us actual evidence of systematic siphoning and looting of aid by Hamas.
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: That's the standard line, by the way, according to my own reporting and checks.
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: I think that's accurate, that the idea.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: I don't think has ever come and said OK, this is happening at this point, this is how much they stole, to actually show evidence to, let's say, more sympathetic UN and other international officials.
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: Hamas hasn't just been sitting there for 20 months and just letting its own fighters and leaders and families starve or not have enough aid to actually sustain themselves and their fight.
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: So I do believe that Hamas has definitely been looking out for number one, number one being Hamas.
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: But why hasn't the IDF been able to produce this evidence?
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: Well, this also might be a constant theme of this conversation in this episode.
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: Why?
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: Maybe bureaucratic inertia?
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: Maybe just professional kind of incompetence?
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: Maybe this is a constant refrain they don't want to give up intelligence, assets or methods?
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: They don't want to give up intelligence, assets or methods.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: But really, if Israel is claiming that there's systematic, widespread looting by Hamas gunmen of aid convoys that go into the Gaza Strip, surely you can show that.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: And if you remember back to the beginning of the war, there were instances where you had aid trucks going into the Strip.
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: You saw like gunmen on them, but that's one instance of, however, thousands of trucks that have gone in into Gaza.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: So again, both things can be true.
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: You can, on the one hand, say, yes, there hasn't been evidence provided of systematic, widespread looting by Hamas.
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: That widespread, systematic looting may exist.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: And yet and this is also maybe a constant refrain during this episode does it really matter, right?
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: If the humanitarian situation is so dire inside the Strip and your stated purpose is to go after Hamas and your stated purpose, at least from the Israeli government on down, is we're not going after the Gassan population, then you can't just starve them.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: You have to provide aid, you have to facilitate aid.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: And it's not enough, as the IDF has been doing, just to kind of drop off trucks or pallets or containers of aid on the Gassan side of the border crossing and expect the UN and the other aid agencies just to kind of get it done without actual coordination with the IDF, without some kind of guarantee that their trucks and their people are safe.
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: So again, it's not me saying this.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: I've said this, I think, in previous podcasts that the situation in terms of the humanitarian conditions in Gaza are dire.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: Bibi Netanyahu said so himself a month ago when he said that Gaza was nearing the red line in terms of the situation and that he had to facilitate the reentry of aid, by the way, via the old UN model.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: So that was Bibi Net, yahoo's saying the situation was pretty dire.
• 19:44
  Speaker 2: You also had Donald Trump saying you know, people are starving in Gaza and we have to do something about it.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: I think his special envoy, steve Woodcuff, said you know, there will not be a humanitarian crisis on Donald Trump's watch in Gaza.
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: So that presupposes that situation is dire enough that there is a crisis on our hands.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: And yeah, look, the situation became a lot worse after the collapse of the ceasefire in early March, because these early government, in its infinite wisdom and I'm being very, very facetious and sarcastic on purpose, and I'm being very, very facetious and sarcastic on purpose stopped all aid entry into Gaza starting March 2nd for 11 weeks.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: For 11 weeks, and they thought that would, I suppose, soften Hamas's position at the negotiating table.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: They supposed that would lead Hamas to break, and all it did was Did it.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: No.
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: I mean we can get into the ceasefire talks maybe later on, but clearly Hamas didn't bend on its demand to essentially end the war in return for the hostages and all it did was make the situation a lot worse for two million people in the Gaza Strip and on top of that, heap massive amounts of international pressure on Israel.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: And this is to get to heap massive amounts of international pressure on Israel.
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: And this is to get to your earlier point.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: The headlines that you're seeing don't do Israel any favors, to say the least.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: So both losses, in both cases, those are losses from Israel's point of view.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: And this went on for 11 weeks.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: In the beginning you had people Israeli officials say, well, they have enough food for six months, because Israel did allow a lot of aid to go in during the two-month ceasefire.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: But as our colleague Shira Efron said, an aid truck is not exactly an aid truck filled with aid.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: An aid truck may be half filled with aid.
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: An aid truck may be potato chips.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: Again, she follows this a lot closer than many other people.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: But again there was a lot of aid that went in, but it wasn't enough to last for months, it was enough to last for weeks.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: And again, that was also a either miscalibration by Israel or just willful ignorance by Israeli officials.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: So this brings us to the current moment where you need a well A, you need aid to go in.
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: B, if you're Israel, you don't want it to just go, from their point of view, to Hamas.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: Enter the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, and I and my colleagues have done a lot of reporting on this kind of very shadowy organization.
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: I won't get into the weeds of who came up with it and who's running it, but suffice to say this was an Israeli idea that was essentially sold to various American partners, not least also Trump administration officials, who in recent weeks have definitely gone out there and tried to sell this idea as their own, to make it a bit more palatable to the UN and others.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: It's interesting.
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: They would want to take credit for it, given what's happening.
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: Well, we'll get into that in just a second how the first week has been, because the GHF, as it's called, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, started operations a little over a week ago.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: But trust me, I'll get to that in a second, because everyone has been following that very, very closely, as I'm sure our listeners are aware.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: But essentially the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation was a mechanism by which Israel could facilitate aid to Gaza, although, as Shira and others can tell you, the ability of this mechanism, through these aid hubs, to distribute enough aid to the entire population of Gaza was always in severe doubt.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: But number two, from the Israeli point of view, to do it and not allow Hamas to benefit from it and also to essentially separate the Gazan population from Hamas.
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: And also you get into kind of these geographic questions about where these hubs are going to be located.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: They're primarily going to be located in southern Gaza.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: That's a major point of contention because that's from the UN point of view and others.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: That's facilitating kind of the displacement of the internal population, to say nothing of the fact that you have kind of armed American security contractors kind of running this.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: So that brings us to the past week.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: And how has it gone?
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: You may be wondering.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: You may be wondering Not great.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: And this is also a major point of contention, because people here in Israel and also the foundation itself say you know, the past week has been a smashing success.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: According to their metrics, they've given out over 7 million meals.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: So they count it by meals because they essentially distribute boxes of not ready-made meal it's like it's food products and which then the population goes and cooks, but they count it as meals and each box is supposed to go to the head of a household.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: I think their latest figure is over 100,000 boxes, which in theory should mean 100,000 families, and each family in Gaza could be five people or more.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: But again, how do you know that the same family hasn't gone back and taken the same aid?
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: And again, 100,000 families is nowhere near, doesn't get you anywhere near 2 million people at all, even though the number.
• 25:22
  Speaker 3: It's not even close.
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but that's how they count it.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: They count it as 7 million meals, so that's a nice kind of headline.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: So from the foundation's point of view, they obviously have an interest in promoting success and also from the Israeli point of view, they have an interest in promoting the success.
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: B'tselel Smotrich, the, the finance minister, said I think the first or second day of the foundation's operations, this is the turning point in the war.
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: This is the moment that Hamas rule is going to crumble.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's bold.
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you know Smotrich says a lot of things Doesn't mean they're true.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: But look, the problem, the crux of it, is that over the past week, uh, I mean we'll get to the obvious problem in just a second the fact that people likely were killed, kind of waiting for these places to open.
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: But the bigger problem is that so far they've only opened four distribution hubs three in southern gaza, near rafa area, right, uh, and one one in central Gaza, in the kind of Netsarim corridor that's held by the IDF.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: But four in theory, because since Friday and we're recording this, by the way, on Wednesday evening, tel Aviv time, so since Friday, only one of those hubs has been opened right, so that's not nearly enough.
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: And also it's it's geographically, obviously it's only in that specific area and really they've only been open for a few hours in the morning until all the boxes are are claimed and taken um.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: And even today, right on wednesday, none of the hubs were open.
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: They said it was for kind of reorganization and logistical reasons.
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: But they, they say they're going to ramp up um to you know, increasing numbers of hubs uh, they do well, I think, to get the four that they've already created, uh up and running for what they said in the beginning was going to be for whatever, 24 hours a day, which is nowhere near what we've seen so far.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: The bigger problem is.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you're going to ask me yes, I am going to ask you how we ended up with reports of IDF soldiers shooting at, or near or next to, the civilians going to receive aid.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: There were initial reports.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: Those reports were then retracted.
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: The IDF, from what I've seen, has actually been very vague about what actually happened.
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: So what on earth is going on?
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: So I mean, all hyperbole aside, this is both a major crisis, strategic event, call it what you will.
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Since Sunday basically so last week, I think the first or second day of operations you did have a crowd of Gazans overrun one of the aid hubs actually the one that has remained open near Rafah and Tal As-Sultan, near the coast.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: There may have been some injuries during that incident, but no fatalities, as far as we know.
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: Sunday, this past Sunday, we woke up to reports that, essentially overnight, early, early Sunday morning, dozens of Gazans were shot at and killed at the aid distribution site near Rafah, near it.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: The reports were unclear.
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: Okay, how shall I put this?
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: Uh, the initial reaction from the IDF was well, uh, you know, we're unaware of any kind of injuries or fatalities, but we're still looking into it.
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: That was at around 10, 11 o'clock in the morning.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Now, mind you, the reports of eventually, it was 31 killed on Sunday were already running all over the world and essentially, the IDF finally came out with a statement around, I think, 6 or 7 pm by the way, erev Chag so it was the eve of Shavuot saying that, you know, flatly denying that they shot at anybody and that it was.
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: You know it was due to their fire that there were any fatalities.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: The IDF then put out a video of alleged Hamas gunmen shooting at Ghassan civilians that were searching for aid.
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: But that wasn't anywhere near the aid distribution hub that was in Khan Yunis, a separate city, anywhere near the aid distribution hub that was in Khan Yunis, a separate city.
• 29:51
  Speaker 2: The GHF, the foundation, put out these kind of grainy videos from the aid distribution site from that morning showing people kind of gathering and taking aid, but again that wasn't time stamped, there was no indication right that it was anywhere during the time of the alleged firing and shooting and alleged fatalities.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: So again, so irrelevant information that is it's meant irrelevant theory meant to demonstrate that they weren't responsible for it, but didn't actually address the issue at hand and the place and time that we're referring to correct and it also happened 12 hours after the initial reports that morning, right, so it's also just a major in terms of your strategic communication strategy, a major own goal, and the IDF and the government caught a lot of flack for it domestically.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: Now, again, I'd love to tell you definitively, one way or the other, that, yes, the IDF shot and killed 31 people.
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: Uh, or you know, flat out tell you that the IDF did not shoot and kill 31 people.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: Um, I can't, and it's not for lack of trying, uh, the weird, the other weird thing about this incident just on Sunday was, um, there was no real footage of it.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: And usually in Gaza you do have video footage of, of events, especially kind of what are supposed to be mass casualty events.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: So that was also weird, strange and and gave a lot of us pause.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: Okay, you know, maybe, maybe this wasn't, um, how it was reported from inside gaza, uh, but on the flip side, you had reports from various hospitals in southern Gaza of casualties coming in and with gunshot wounds and the like.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: So again, you know, a it's very difficult for reporters, especially foreign reporters, to confirm things when we're not there.
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: That's number one.
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: Number two the IDF did a very poor job of explaining, or not, what actually happened there, and the IDF should be aware of what's happening in Gaza, especially in areas that it's controlling or it has a true presence in.
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Number three doesn't obviate or preclude the possibility that Hamas and other kind of actors, the health ministry in Gaza or the like, are lying, for obvious reasons, right To get Israel and also this new aid mechanism essentially delegitimized worldwide.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: And that's where we're essentially at in terms of the Sunday event Very weird situation.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: I'll be very careful with what I say.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: My best guess, and it's only a guess, is that on Sunday morning, and also, by the way, on Monday morning, and also, by the way, yesterday morning, on Tuesday morning, I think, a lot of people, thousands of people, because there's only, like we said, one aid hub that's open for a limited number of hours, just in terms of supply, in this particular corner of southern Gaza, that thousands of people next to IDF forces.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: Again, it could be, you know, 500 meters a kilometer, two kilometers away from the aid hub, but they're there, kind of waiting either next to or beyond an IDF checkpoint to access the aid hub.
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: That it doesn't.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: It's not out of the realm of possibility that there may have been a mad crush and that the IDF, you know, felt the need to open fire.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: Now, in terms of the incident that happened on Tuesday, the IDF said it initially fired warning shots, but that it did fire at several suspects not you know yesterday, on Tuesday, I think, there were reports of 27 people killed in this incident.
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: So, like I said, both things can potentially be true, that the death toll may have been inflated, but that the IDF, for whatever reason, may have opened fire.
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: Now, just for the record, as we say, to cover all our bases, the IDF, at least in terms of this Sunday incident, still denies that they opened fire on the civilians.
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: And again, we just don't know.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: We just don't know.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: Could it have been other armed actors in the area opening fire on Gazan civilians?
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: Could it have been Hamas opening fire on Gazan civilians?
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't put it past them.
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: But it goes back to our earlier point right, if Hamas were actually opening fire on this mass group of civilians, where is the IDF?
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: And the drones and whatever kind of showing that very clearly it's a major issue.
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: So I don't know if it answered anybody's questions, but this is essentially what I've been dealing with since the weekend, trying to figure out what exactly happened, to the best of our ability, and not, um again, trying not to to kind of play favorites, right, you know, if you're, if you're trying to be a professional and report on the situation, you know, is it out of their own possibility that the idf opened fire?
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: No, is it out of their of possibility that the death toll from inside Gaza was inflated?
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: No, is it out of the realm of possibility that it might have been a combination, that Hamas may have opened fire to cause this provocation, potentially?
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: But again, we're doing the best we can and you know I'll say two things.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Number one Israel needs to do a much better job.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: It's not even just Hasbara, right, it just means, okay, like you have to kind of be a lot more proactive in what you're putting out there.
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: Okay, we'll be right back after this brief message.
• 35:44
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• 35:47
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• 36:01
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• 36:12
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• 36:23
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• 36:29
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• 36:45
  Speaker 2: So that's the first point.
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: Second point, and it maybe speaks to the bigger moment in this now 20-month war, israel and people who support Israel, not only, but Israel and the world, are dealing with two completely different conflicts on a whole array of issues, right From the GHF, the new aid scheme being a wild success, to it being a chaotic, um boondoggle, shall we say, during its first week.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Uh to the actual objective humanitarian conditions inside the strip.
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: Uh, how good, slash bad, are they?
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Uh to the fact, you know, we're now hearing via the idf, but also from various government officials, uh, hamas rule is crumbling finally inside the gatha strip.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: Is it really?
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: Is it not?
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: Um, you know?
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: And also, uh, the legitimacy and justification for continuing with the war, and maybe we'll touch on it in a second, but just the growing international war, and maybe we'll touch on it in a second, but just the growing international pressure, slash condemnation of israel just in the past two weeks, uh, like nothing we've seen, um, since since the beginning of the war.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: So it's really kind of these two parallel universes and, uh, it was really encapsulated, uh, since sunday, by the fact that you talk to an Israeli and even if you watch Israeli media, they're convinced Hamas opened fire on those people waiting to get to the aid hub.
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: And they'll tell you about the clips that the foundation released and the clip that the IDF released, and you talk to someone who is not an Israeli official and they will give you a completely different perspective.
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: And that's where we are.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: And it's very frustrating as a journalist because something either happened or did not happen that Sunday morning and that Monday morning and that Tuesday morning in southern Gaza, and it's just really frustrating not to be able to say one way or the other with 100 percent certainty.
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: Let's put it that way.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: That said, we should acknowledge that I think I don't want to call out the Washington Post, but I'm pretty sure it was them and a bunch of media outlets that initially had headlines saying the sort of Hamas party line and then retracted them.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know to what extent they edited them, but it was clear that they acknowledged that what Hamas was indicating happened.
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: What Gazans were saying happened was at least not clear to have happened, even if some version of it did.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: So, yes, I'm aware of various changes and corrections.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: Look, I'm not going to speak for my friends at the Washington Post.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: I think they attenuated the headline because they couldn't say, like I said, with 100% confirmation that this is exactly what happened.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: But if you read the article, even after the changes, it's the same basic reporting that they had originally in terms of eyewitness accounts, accounts from medics and doctors in southern Gaza.
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: So I think they stood by the reporting, but I think the framing of it was a lot less adamant.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: And also, some of our listeners and watchers may be aware that the BBC had to take down a video which they initially claimed was from the incident, I believe on Sunday, and it turned out that it wasn't from that incident, wasn't from that moment or location, but that they still stood by their reporting in terms of the overall event right, even though they kind of withdrew that particular clip.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: And again it goes back to what I just said.
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: These are two parallel realities with regard to this one war, and never the twain shall meet.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, thinking more about how those outside of Israel are viewing things.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: Inside Israel they're very differently.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: You mentioned earlier the growing international pressure on Israel, obviously the beginning of this war.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Israel's allies around the world, not just the United States and Canada, but certainly across Europe.
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: We're really standing shoulder to shoulder with Israel, recognizing the need for Israel to go to war.
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Let's say At this point that is far from the case and we're seeing increasingly particularly European countries we've got Canada, canada, that list coming out and saying it's time to end and I don't know if the aid is the aid component of all this is playing into it as well.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: But tell us more about who's coming out with statements and what does pressure on Israel actually look like beyond just statements?
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, if you want to give, if you want me to give you a list of the governments and formerly very supportive governments that have come out with very harsh statements and even actions, and just in the past two weeks, uh, we'll be here, we'll be here all night, um, but look all kidding aside, it is governments like the new german government and the right-wing italian government and the british government, and, um, france and canada and France and Canada.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: These aren't exactly bastions or well-known kind of anti-Israel either politicians or governments or even countries.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Right, there are other, shall we say, more well-known and more say knee-jerk, knee-jerk, anti-israel in general, and especially since the beginning of the war.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: These aren't it, these aren't it.
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: And so this criticism and it's even more than criticism at this point, it's condemnation, it's coming from friends and I think a different Israeli government would maybe take it a little more on board.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: This Israeli government is kind of steering into the skid.
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: Uh, it's always yeah on most issues, right, and not even just in gaza, right.
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: We saw, uh, the announcement late last week of uh 22 new settlements, actual entire new settlements across the west bank.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: Uh, they're saying that.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: Um, the idea that france and other governments may recognize a palest Palestinian state it'll be how they put it a state on paper that will be thrown into the wastebasket of history.
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: That's just the West Bank, right?
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: So they picked probably the worst moment in terms of growing international pressure on Israel to come out with that announcement for their own, I think it's fair to say domestic political reasons, uh, and that's even before we get to the issue of gaza, which this government is very, if nothing else, consistent.
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: Uh, this is a war between uh civilization, and I don't want to put words in their mouth, but you, you know non-civilization, right, and that if you're siding against Israel, then you're siding with Hamas, you're siding with the terrorists, etc.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: Etc.
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: Etc.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: And this is a constant refrain, not just in recent weeks but since the beginning of the war.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: But now it hits a lot less, true, hits a lot less, um, true, and I will say, uh, you know, growing international pressure.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: It's like the hemingway line, like you know how did you go bankrupt?
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Gradually and then suddenly, so you know, international pressure was, was growing, but really, um, I think over the past month it's suddenly become a lot more acute, I think for precisely the reasons we were talking about earlier, not just the humanitarian situation, which has gotten worse and, through this new aid scheme, probably won't get any better quickly enough, but also the fact that, uh, we're in the midst of a renewed israeli offensive.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: So it's both the the promise slash threat of this government to continue the war, and I don't want to say forever, but at least for months longer, until total victory is achieved we don't need to belabor the point Coupled with the real difficult situation inside Gaza.
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of even friendly governments have suddenly lost patience, and so we're seeing the results.
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: And you know, the UK halted new free trade negotiations with Israel.
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, we talked about it last time with Shira and Michael, but you know, france and the EU are looking again at the association agreement that Israel has with the EU.
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: Again, these are major things, right, israel is, the EU is Israel's biggest trading partner.
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: It's not the USs, um is this entering?
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: the discourse at all uh this entering israel's discourse, because I will say I think that many sort of their first inclination is to scoff at this a little bit.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: Um, in part because I think that when israelis hear criticism of the IDF and military actions in particular, their inclination is to just respond with but this is what Hamas did, right, and I think that their friends in the EU know what Hamas did and agree with them on that, but don't feel that it excuses everything that Israel does, and I think that's a bit of a disconnect.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: So I'm curious how a lot of this criticism lands with Israelis.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: Do they feel like the EU just doesn't get it, europeans just don't get the situation we're in, canadians just don't get the situation that we're going through right now, and they can't relate.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: I think a lot of Israelis will have that emotion.
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: That's their initial reaction to any criticism, especially after October 7th.
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: And look, israel is fighting a vicious, vicious enemy still in Hamas.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: But to go back to former President Joe Biden, right, what did he and his people say in the early stages of the war?
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: You have all of our support in going after Hamas for the awful, awful October 7th attack.
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: But it matters how you do it.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: The way you go about prosecuting this war matters, matters greatly, and previous Israeli governments, I think, were more attuned to that in terms of the international legitimacy and diplomatic context within which you're fighting any war, not just this particular war, and there was a lot of credit extended to Israel for over a year.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: Right, we're 20 months into this.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: By one count I think there was an article in one of the Israeli newspapers by one count, this is Israel's longest war ever.
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: And again, a very, very um high death toll on the gaza side, coupled with the very difficult humanitarian conditions, coupled with there's no real kind of end in sight, because the objective is total victory.
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: And you, yes, patience has one thing, so I think a lot of people in Israel don't want to hear it.
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: We're going until the end, total victory.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: I think a growing number of Israelis do understand what the Europeans and, by the way, it's not just the Europeans but what people outside of Israel are saying, and I'm actually in the process of reporting a piece about I don't want to call it the growing anti-war movement, but you hear and see things in Israel and in Israeli discourse and in Israeli media in recent weeks that you never saw in recent weeks, that you never saw before over the past 20 months ever, because it wouldn't have been acceptable, people wouldn't have felt comfortable.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: I was at an anti-war march this morning, um, near near the idf headquarters in the kiriya, and you had, you know, not a massive number of people, you had maybe three dozen people.
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: More were coming.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: But they're marching in broad daylight with kind of stop the war and refuse service and even a picture of a, of a Gazan child who was killed during the war, and they're marching through central tel aviv and they're going to be marching down to, uh, the gaza border.
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: Now, again, this you wouldn't have seen this and even they they told me you wouldn't have seen this, uh, in the first months of the war.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: I don't, I don't think you would have seen this a year ago.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Uh, and that's just one example, you you see it in the media more discussion not just of the international outcry and the international pressure, but also the toll on the Gazan side, which you never saw on mainstream Israeli media before.
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: So it is changing.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: How widespread is it?
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: How decisive it is?
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: I don't want to overstate it, but it's definitely there.
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: Would you say mainstream media is beginning to show images of Gaza, because that's something we've spoken up before, really doesn't, has not previously existed on news channels in Israel.
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: It has, and I don't want to kind of preempt the article that I hope will come out soon.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: but I'll give it to you, don't worry it, don't worry, no, people should subscribe to the financial times and definitely read it, uh.
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: But no, look, there was a report on channel 12, uh, a week or two ago, and it was initially billed, as you know, growing international pressure on israel.
• 50:12
  Speaker 2: But then the, the reporter, who did a very good job with this package, got into the reasons why and at one point they had a british tv correspondent get up there and say you know, the israeli media is not aware of the images that the world sees, that is not relayed in the israeli media, right?
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: So essentially, it's kind of this meta, meta moment where an israeli tv channel biggest one, 12, in its kind of primetime nightly newscast, was running an article with a foreign TV correspondent telling the Israeli public that it didn't actually understand what was actually happening in Gaza, along with, by the way, images that were being played in British TV and other foreign TV channels.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: So again, you wouldn't have seen that a year ago.
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: You wouldn't have seen it a year ago.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: And the other example that I may use in the piece hopefully the editors don't, which we will still all read.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: And if you're a journalist listening to this, you have to wait until I'm going to embargo this information in this episode until my article comes out.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: No, there was a.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: There was a.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Ynet is the biggest online news outlet.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: It's basically the online arm of Idiota Honot, a big daily newspaper, and again, like a week or two ago, the top story with a big image said you know, the UN says you know, people are starving in Gaza, or something to that effect, with an image of desperate Gazans holding up empty pots waiting in line for, I guess, at a communal kitchen.
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: We're seeing that Not at the top of YNet, not at the bottom of YNet beforehand, and so I think that's a deliberate editorial decision by various outlets.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Again, shouldn't overstate it In other outlets you'll never see it and the rhetoric and the images are very different, but it's there in a way that wasn't the case before.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: So, speaking of breaking points, let's turn inwards to the domestic situation in Israel, because we've been hearing, probably for at least months, if not years, the potential of the Haredi draft controversy, or lack of draft controversy, being a potential issue that will end this coalition's rule.
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: Now there are reports that all three of the Haredi parties are threatening to leave the coalition.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: Conventional wisdom tells us that Netanyahu will always manage to hold his coalition together, more or less so is that still the case?
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: What do you think's happening here?
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: You know I love your predictions of domestic politics in Israel.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, although predictions about domestic politics in Israel usually falls, because anything is possible really.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, it's a political system with very little rules and even less scruples and morals, so anything is literally possible.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: But yeah, you're right.
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: Today, with the ultimatums at least put forward semi-publicly by most of the ultra-Orthodox parties to Net voted with the Netanyahu coalition in protest at the fact today take motion, uh, set to be voted on next week and to actually dissolve parliament and go to snap elections now between between now and next week.
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: It's an infinite amount of time in Israeli politics, so it's a threat that the ultra-Orthodox parties put on the table, I think, to focus Netanyahu's mind to find them a solution.
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: It may also focus other minds inside the government and also, by the way, outside the government in the right-wing political base, to say okay, uh, we don't want to lose this ruling coalition and so we have to find some kind of way through this.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: Um, I won't get into the weeds of what may or may not happen, but I will say you are going to stay out of the weeds well, I'm doing it for free benefit and also for the benefit of our listeners.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: I will say that I don't believe the ultra orthodox will actually topple this government.
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: Uh, there's a great phrase in Hebrew Nothing good is threatening them with an election, and especially after an election.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: All the polls show that the current components of the Netanyahu ruling coalition will not fare that well and that the next components of the Netanyahu ruling coalition will not fare that well, and that the next government may not even include the Haredis, the ultra-Orthodox right.
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: So if you're trying to keep your exemption, the last thing you want to do is facilitate the voting in of a center-left, center-right government without you that will actually pass a real law.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: So I assume, like you said, netanyahu will find some kind of way to finesse this left, center, right government without you that will actually pass a real law.
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: So I assume, like you said, netanyahu will find some kind of way to finesse this and kind of kick the can down the road.
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: But there is one major caveat if netanyahu himself decides that it's in his interest to actually have this issue trigger an election, that may be something different.
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: Now again, he has the same issue right.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: If he goes to an election.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: It may be a major problem for him but he may make the calculation that it's better to go to an election number one, according to his timing.
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: Number two, not to have this boondoggle of allowing the Haredis not to serve in the military over him.
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: Right, because it's a major.
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: You know 80% of the public here wants him to serve.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: It's only kind of Netanyahu himself and the ultra-Orthodox sector that doesn't want it right?
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: Even the coup voters want the ultra-Orthodox to serve.
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: Definitely the settlers.
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: The Smotrich-Benvir crowd want the ultra-Orthodox to serve.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: Definitely the settlers.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: The Smotrich-Benvir crowd want the ultra-Orthodox to serve because from their perspective they also are good, pious Jews that uphold all the mitzvot and study and seminaries and the like.
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: But they also serve the ultra-Orthodox don't Hugely unpopular even inside Netanyahu's unpolitical base.
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: So that's number two why does he want to be taught about if I'm going into an election, especially during wartime?
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Number three, most importantly, the uh.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: The next best thing to actually winning a war and attaining total victory is running in an election promising to attain total victory.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: So you essentially go to war.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: You go go to war.
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: Yes, you're definitely going to continue still going to war, but you're going to win an election where you promise your voters hey, if you keep me in the prime minister's office, I'm going to win this war for you, and if you kick me out, it's going to be well.
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: He said it last week surrender defeat.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: How did he put it in the Knesset?
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: He said you know, if you guys speaking to the opposition, if you guys were around in 1948, we would have lost the war.
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: You know, forgetting who was actually the leader of the country Labor, socialist and not the right wing, anyway.
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: So we don't know what will happen.
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: It's a major internal domestic political crisis.
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: My sense is that they'll find some way to muddle through, but with the caveat that, you know, if Netanyahu does actually want to go to snap elections, he has that option and could facilitate that.
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: But I think these are threats made by the Haredis nothing more and everyone knows only a sucker bets against Netanyahu, so I don't have any assumptions Politically.
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it also occurred to me a little before we started recording that this crisis may have been manufactured by Netanyahu to give him an alibi to fire certain people to pave the way for, um, a draft law that's more to the heart is liking, and so he'll use that as an alibi.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: Hey, you know, I didn't have a choice.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: Right my back was against the wall.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: I know this is super unpopular, but it's either passing this draft law that the howard is like or total defeat, losing power, the quote-unquote left.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: Uh, regaining power, um, again remains to be seen, and maybe our listeners and viewers, as always, may be a lot smarter than we are when this comes out.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: But uh, I think next week we'll probably have a good indication of where we're heading.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: There's a possibility that this move and motion to dissolve the Knesset may not even come to a vote.
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: So you know it's a big issue today.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: I know I had to report on it, but come next week it will no longer be an issue for one reason or another and we'll be on to the next crisis, domestic or otherwise.
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: Can't wait to see what's in store for us next week.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Only good things.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: We have to remain hopeful.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Always hopeful.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: Have a good week, Mary.
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: Thanks, janine, thank you.