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NFL Week 14 Gambling Picks, Wide Open Divisions, Jameis Unleashed · Three For The Money

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  Back to the normal schedule. And it is a... oh shit, I forgot what week this is. Is it 14?
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  14. I should really be writing these down. It's just these these big numbers get mixed up all in
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  my head. Not a numbers podcast. But we're back and we are sponsored by the Trend Center app.
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  Per usual, the greatest tool on the planet for sports bettors. Check them out, link in the bio.
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  15% off a premium membership. Okay, all right, we're back from Thanksgiving. And I
• 1:35
  was not feeling very good on Thanksgiving. I went two and one on Thanksgiving, but on the whole
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  slate for last week. I went five, three and one and I won my surefire. So I'm feeling pretty okay.
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  I'm feeling pretty okay. I've been dog shit the past forever. I don't know. It just it feels like
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  it's never ended. It feels like it has never ended. This is my first good week in a while.
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  I'm gonna enjoy it. I'm not gonna talk shit. I'm gonna respect the board and just take
• 2:08
  take what comes to me. And Chris, how did you do? I mean, not great. Not terrible. I went
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  bet the whole board went seven and eight. So bet the whole board only down a unit or yeah, only
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  down a unit you don't you don't hate it. But Sunday, the noon slate, the end of the noon slate was
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  not kind to me. Lost my surefire in brutal fashion. Matt Jones and the Jags backdoor cover.
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  That was awful. Lost two unders in a matter of seconds. It was like the the Seahawks jets went
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  over and then 30 seconds later, I think the Colts scored to go over on like the last play of the
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  game. Yep. So yeah, the noon slate and then rebounded all right with the afternoon slate went.
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  But it was just brutal. Lost Monday night too. Also lost Monday night in brutal fashion because
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  James just could not stop throwing interceptions in the second half of that game. So the losses
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  were just brutal. And but still seven and eight not the worst. All things considered. So we're
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  fine. We're we still got bullets ready for week 14. Okay. Did you end up taking that Vikings
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  Cardinals under? Yes, I had 45 and a half and 45. Fuck you. That was my one push. That was
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  because I had 45. Yeah. That was yeah, it was a week where the losses were brutal and none of
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  the wins came easy other than the bills other than that none of the wins were easy. Yeah, that
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  Cardinals Vikings was was like six to three at halftime. So I just kind of honestly stopped paying
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  attention. I was like, Oh, this is crude. Like I don't put my focus into other games. Don't have
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  to worry about this. And then I see like halfway through the fourth quarter, I'm like, Oh my God,
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  this is a sweat all of a sudden. What the hell happened? And I was fortunate enough to have 45
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  in the hook. I apologize to the rest of the people on this panel who had 45 even or 44 and a half,
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  depending on I don't know. Did everyone at least push wait, you had 45 and a half? Yeah, it was
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  it in at 45. Yeah, he won. Yeah. Okay. Yeah, I wanted to have 45 so it pushed for me. So I was
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  cool with that. I also pushed. Okay, as long as anybody's lost. But I mean, when you have a six
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  three game with the half and it ends up pushing that's it might as well be it feels like a loss.
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  But yeah, like I said, we still got bullets for week 14. So
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  let's go. Yeah. Now, how did you do? Thank you board, but I kind of love it, honestly.
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  Okay. So yeah, I went seven, eight and one. I also bet the board. I went two and one on
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  Thanksgiving. But I knew it was kind of going to be a bad week just the way that the Bears Lions
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  game ended. Having the over in that game was I mean, just I'm glad Eberflue Scott
• 5:42
  kicked to the curb. He deserved it. I've never seen a more dismantle clock management. I mean,
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  just what if I'm censoring myself a little bit. But yeah, it was ridiculous. Yeah, it was ridiculous.
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  That's a good word. Yeah. I apologize. I didn't get my Black Friday pick in on time for the Twitter.
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  I forgot the game started at two. I was at work and I got home and I was scrolling on
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  TikTok and someone was like live streaming the game and I was like, Oh, shit. I forgot to bet.
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  But yeah, Raiders plus 13 and a half. I ended up going on with that. I didn't take the over. Like
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  I said, glad I didn't. But yeah, like Chris, the noon slate just kind of kicked me in the balls.
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  It was just bad beat after bad beat to unders. I think we both have the same unders. Texans
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  are Jags backdoor covered. Awful, awful, awful. Shout out, Wills, Surefire, Chargers minus one.
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  That was great. And then that was just about it. That's all I want on Sunday except for the Bucks
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  Panthers over. But I don't think really anyone in America watched that. I watched it. Okay. Because
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  my regular bet was cooked. So I just flipped it over to the end of that game. Yeah. And I also
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  lost my Surefire this week. Again, it's been a rough week, fellas. I'm not going to lie.
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  Getting a little depressed, just thinking about it again. Kind of ready to move on.
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  That's what we're here for. We're ready to move on to week 14 of the NFL season.
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  And let's go ahead and get into these games here. All right. So first game we're really going to
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  dive into here is Falcons at the Vikings. All right. The Vikings are home favorites by five and
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  a half here. And both of these teams, like they're still in the mix to win their division. I mean,
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  Falcons are leading their division and Vikings have won 10 games. The Lions have won 11. So they're
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  still kind of neck and neck here. And you know, whatever happens on Thursday night football,
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  you know, today night football, because it's Thursday. That's really TNF. Today night football.
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  Yeah. Today night football. Chris is so beautiful, I said.
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  Both teams kind of need a win here to stay in the race for their perspective divisions.
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  I'll go ahead and take this one. Like I said, the Falcons are leading their division and the
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  Vikings have not really beat the wheels off of anyone. I mean, like six of their 10 wins are
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  like less than a score of a point differential, whatever. That yeah, they have a couple of wins
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  by 10 points. The only team they really beat the wheels off of is the Texans in like week two or
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  whatever. And that came out of nowhere. But other than that, other games have been like semi close,
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  one score to 10 points, maybe 11. And for that reason, I'm taking the Falcons plus five and a
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  half here. I think this is a big number. And I think that Kirk Cousins definitely wants to
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  redeem himself from last week, not a good showing. I think this is a bounce back game for the Falcons.
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  And Falcons could win, but also Vikings probably will win. But that's this is a big number. This
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  is a big number to cover for the Vikings. And I just don't see it. I'm picking the Falcons here.
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  Chris, you seem to be nodding your head in right here. I completely agree with everything you said.
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  I know five and a half is a big number. I can do you one better. It is now six on DraftKings. So if
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  you want to get that, I don't know if you've locked it in yet. But I got Falcons plus six in case you
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  were wondering. Kirk Cousins was God awful last week, and they still almost won that game.
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  Right.
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  He threw four picks and they still like definitely could have won that game.
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  This is, it's not a revenge game, but it's against a former team. So he knows, he knows
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  Brian Flores, he knows like pretty much what is going to happen defensively in this game.
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  I like Falcons also to keep it close. Like you said, Vikings have not really beaten a whole
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  lot of teams like haven't beaten a lot of teams by more than a score. I actually have it right here.
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  They have four wins by six plus six points or more. And the Falcons have only lost three games
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  by six points or more. So I like to keep within the, in the number here. Also have
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  stat from Trent Center. This is a kind of a specific one. So, Buckle. Since 1990,
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  when a dog of less than 10 points is on a three plus game losing streak, and the total is between
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  38 and a half and 54 and a half, that team is 216, 122 and seven against the spread, six and four in
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  the last 10. Give me the Falcons plus six. I love it. I think this is Kirk Cousins,
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  like I said, not revenge game, but pseudo revenge game. Sean, what do you, what do you think?
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  Yeah, I'm going with the Falcons. Kirk returns to Minnesota. I mean, we're all cut from the same
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  cloth here. It's no secret that Kurt had a brutal Lee awful game last week.
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  Throwing four picks. But I think he is familiar with this defense. He's familiar with Brian
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  Floras' schemes and his tricks. But this isn't a return, you know, a revenge type of bet. I'm just,
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  I'm honestly not buying the Vikings recent five game win streak either. They played the Joe Flacco
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  Colts, the shipbag Jigs, the God awful Titans, the crumbling cursed bears, and honestly, they kind
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  of got a little lucky against the Cardinals. Yes, got a little lucky against Titans too.
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  Sure. A lot of bullshit penalties. A lot of bullshit penalties. Sure. Lucky to cover,
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  not to win. Lucky to cover. Sure. But yeah, while the Vikings started out hot,
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  they had the number one defense within the first five weeks. That has since just fallen apart.
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  I mean, since week six, they've fallen to nine. And since week 11, they have fallen to 20th overall.
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  I mean, that's quite the downfall from first to 20th. They really haven't been able to contain
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  Joe Flacco, Will Leviss or even Mack Jones. They gave up almost 350 yards to Caleb Williams,
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  for God's sake. Falcons cover in the Kirk return. Falcons plus five. Or six. I haven't put it in
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  yet. Whatever the Falcons number is, I'm going to take it. It's six right now. Yeah, I'm going to
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  take it. Falcons points. Might have to lock that in right now or here soon. But okay, next game,
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  a divisional matchup. Browns versus the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Steelers are favored by six and a
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  half currently. Divisional matchup again. James Winston through the game on Monday night football
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  against the Broncos that the Browns almost won that game. He just threw it away. It was just
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  it was just bad. It was just bad. Sean, you go first for this this pick here.
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  All right, I'm going to go a little against the grain on what I usually do. Over 44 and a half.
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  Browns have a kind of piss poor defense right now and the Steelers have a legit top 10 offense at the
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  moment. If this Thursday night game that they played two weeks ago in the snow, if that overcashed,
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  I expect this one to cash with blind colors. Plus, James just is allergic to giving the ball
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  to the other team. I've got one, two, three, I've got six stats for you. The over has gone,
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  the total has gone over in four of Pittsburgh's last five games against Cleveland. The over has
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  hit in six of Pittsburgh's last seven games. The total has gone over in five of Pittsburgh's last
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  five games played in December. The total has gone over in four of Cleveland's last five games. The
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  total has gone over in nine of Cleveland's last 13 games as an opponent in the AFC.
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  And the total has gone over in five of Cleveland's last six games played in December. Yeah, give me
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  the over please. Even if James is addicted to turning the ball over, he scored four touchdowns
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  last week, that dude can still sling it. He can still, I mean, connect to Jerry Judy, you know,
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  just throw up almost 300 yards, but whatever. Browns can score. Steelers can score. Give me the
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  over. It's really that simple. Chris, what you got? I mean, you took the words right out of my
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  mouth. It's over 44 and a half. How can you not bet this over after what we just saw on Monday night
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  football? This is like, James is in his bag right now. Like he's throwing for 500 yards and throwing
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  two picked sixes. This is what he does. He is the most electric quarterback in football right now.
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  He is. That's not even available. I want him on every Browns game needs to be flexed because
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  James Winston is can't miss football, but in all seriousness, he did dice up a good Denver defense
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  on Monday. And I don't know if Pittsburgh defense is as good as if we're just going to do the math
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  like that. I think he'll be able to have success. Denver's defense or Denver, excuse me, Cleveland's
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  defense is terrible. Sean took the stat right out of my mouth. They've, excuse me, their last four
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  game, four of their last five gone over. Cleveland's D has given up over 24 points in four of those
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  five games. The Steelers like to chuck it as well. Russell Wilson. I mean, we know he loves the
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  deep ball. He's kind of back to just prime Russ. So I really like this over. If I, if for us, I
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  don't know if you guys remember this, but when we were doing our, you know, pre NFL futures show,
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  I had a future on Russell Wilson to throw for over like 3000 yards or something. If he wasn't out
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  for like the first five or six games, this, this would, this future would have cashed easily.
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  What's he at right now? Do you have it? I don't, I just know it's going to be a loser because,
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  you know, he's, he's missed five or six games, but. But yeah, no, I love this over. It's weird.
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  Brown Steelers, but they're just, they're chucking the football. This isn't what I've been raised to
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  been raised to believe in as a football fan, but is the world we live in, it's James, it's Russ.
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  Let's go points. Will, what do you think? I liked everything that both of you guys said,
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  but I'm taking a different bet. Not on the other side, but a different category. I will be taking
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  these Steelers minus six and a half. I, Browns are on short rest and I, I low key think that the
• 18:47
  Steelers are going to beat the shit out of the Browns. And maybe, maybe not like, you know,
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  40 to zero, but enough like Monday night football. I think that's what it's going to be like.
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  It's going to be a high scoring game where Steelers score like 40 or something and Browns throw away
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  a cover at a, with a, with a, with a James, with the famous James pick six and it ends 31 to 40
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  or something like that. That is what I foresee in this game. The Steelers, they're, dare I say, back
• 19:31
  the past couple of years, I mean, they've been, they've been over, they've always, I mean,
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  they've always been above 500 with Mike Tomlin, but like kind of not great the past couple of years,
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  just, you know, just 500. But you know what I'm saying? They seem like legitimately good this year.
• 19:49
  Yeah. Not, not just like, oh yeah, they're 500. They'll, they'll make the playoffs and get stomped.
• 19:54
  It's like, no, they seem like an actually good football team. Yeah. And so that's, that's my
• 20:00
  pick. Steelers minus six and a half. They're at home. Pittsburgh is going to be rocking the pit.
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  I don't know if they call it that. And I just think, I, James had his time. He had his, his one
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  game that he returns and he was awesome. That, that snow game two weeks ago.
• 20:21
  Will always have it. He will always have that. But then this, this, the Steelers will have the rest.
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  And that's, that's, that's my pick. Okay. Next game, another divisional matchup. Seahawks at the
• 20:36
  Cardinals. Cardinals are favored by two and a half. This division is also kind of wide open.
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  I believe the Seahawks lead like seven. I think they have like seven wins. And then the Cardinals
• 20:51
  are like right behind them or something. I don't know. I looked at it, didn't write it down. Not
• 20:58
  going to look it up again. Chris, I'm going to throw this one to you first. What do you think about
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  this game? I took over 44 and a half in the last game. Take it under 44 and a half this game.
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  These two teams played two weeks ago and I took the under and it
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  was the easiest bet of my life. And neither offense has really done anything last week to
• 21:25
  convince me otherwise. I think this is another snoozer, if I'm perfectly honest.
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  Something about like the Cardinals, I don't know with them. Their offense is very much
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  Jekyll and Hyde. I can't trust them to put up points. Also, honestly, same thing with the Seahawks.
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  You never know which Geno you're going to get. Kind of like Jamis, except not a
• 21:46
  Geno Smith is the 99 cent Jamis Winston. It's like he's not as electric, but he'll throw for about
• 21:55
  350 few touchdowns and like two picks. But yeah, I like this under despite the Seahawks jets last
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  week with a kickoff return for a touchdown and a pick six pretty much back to back. That game still
• 22:16
  could have gone on. It went over with like three minutes left, I think. So I'm taking this under
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  again. I just don't think either offense is really capable of scoring that many points.
• 22:29
  So yes, under 44 and a half in a late season divisional game. Sean, what are your thoughts?
• 22:39
  All right. Seahawks plus two and a half. Only recently have the Cardinals become kind of a
• 22:50
  threat to win this division. But I would like to point I know the Seahawks are leading this division
• 23:00
  and I would like to point you in this direction that Kyler Murray is absolutely horrible at home
• 23:10
  in divisional games. Drafted in 2019. Kyler Murray has only won three divisional games at home.
• 23:23
  One being this season when they beat the shit out of the Rams 41 to 10. But before that he
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  had not won a divisional game at home since October of 2021. I'm going to be a coward and just take
• 23:41
  the points and not the money line. But this spread is so close that it could come down to a field
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  goal, you know where the Cardinals kick a last second field goal go up one. But yeah, this is
• 23:55
  just purely a Kyler is dog shit against the NFC West. And I I did my own like little trend on
• 24:06
  trend center where I was like, I wonder how good Kyler is in division. And overall, when he's on
• 24:15
  the he has I think seven more road wins in division. So he's 24. Or he is 10 and 24 in divisional games.
• 24:29
  Yeah, he's he's awful in division. But most of those wins have come on the road. So this being
• 24:37
  at home, I feel more confident in taking the Seahawks plus two and a half. Plus two and a half.
• 24:43
  All right, yeah, I'm taking it. I'm I'm going to be a coward and take the points. But
• 24:50
  that money line is looking delicious. I will say that. Come on, come on. It's two and a half points.
• 24:57
  Check the Twitter. Okay, check the Twitter. Well, yeah, well what you got? Oh, thank you.
• 25:07
  I am also on the Seahawks plus two and a half here. I don't know if you guys remember, but about
• 25:14
  two weeks ago, I gave out a stat very similar to Sean's. The last time the Cardinals and Seahawks
• 25:21
  played, it was in Seattle two weeks ago, I gave out the stat column areas five and 12 against
• 25:27
  the spread versus the NFC West. The Seahawks won that game. And now he is five and 13 against
• 25:36
  that spread. And I will continue to bet against Kyler Murray in divisional games. That's kind
• 25:43
  of all I really have to say about that. I mean, Seahawks, they're a divisional dog. Like, come on.
• 25:50
  Other than that, I mean, I think the Seahawks are they've put it together
• 25:56
  more better than than the Cardinals. More better. That's what I said.
• 26:01
  Right on my tombstone. Okay, next game. Bill's at the Rams.
• 26:13
  Right? Yeah. Yeah. With this. Should this be the game of the week?
• 26:18
  Probably. Yeah. That's what I'm that's what I'm thinking. In Los Angeles, Rams are home dogs by
• 26:26
  four and a half. Let's see that that you know, they're in that that division with the Seahawks
• 26:32
  and the Cardinals like that division still kind of wide open, kind of. I mean, it's late. It's
• 26:40
  it's late, but someone who goes on a run, it's it's kind of up for grabs. You know what I
• 26:48
  at the risk of sounding like a moron, I am going to go first here. I'm taking the Rams.
• 26:53
  100 hungry dog runs faster. They need to win.
• 27:00
  I'm taking the spread out. I don't think I don't think they'll win, but they need to play a lot
• 27:05
  better if they if they want to fucking do something this year. And then I have a trend center stat
• 27:12
  and it's titled fading teams coming off great offensive home wins
• 27:17
  for 439 284 and 28 against the spread. And I am taking the Rams to cover here. It's four and a
• 27:30
  half. I think it's for a team that really, really needs a win to stay competitive. I think this is
• 27:36
  a good number at the risk of being a moron and just watching this game and then the Rams getting
• 27:45
  their shit rocked by by Josh Allen. But for Rams, keep it close. That's all that's all I'm asking
• 27:52
  for. That's all I'm asking for here. Chris, what do you think? I agree. Rams plus four and a half.
• 28:02
  I don't it's stinky, but it feels like the smart play. Bill's coming off very emotional win in
• 28:09
  the snow. They clinched the division. Now they got to travel across the country. They got to play
• 28:14
  the Rams who are sneaky kind of red hot right now. One five or the last seven. I kind of I think the
• 28:21
  Rams can win this game outright, but I am also taking four and a half. Just seems like a letdown
• 28:25
  spot for the bills. So I'm going to ride the hot hand with Stafford and the Rams. That's pretty
• 28:30
  much all it is. It's it's more of a fade the bills in this spot than it is that I think the Rams are
• 28:37
  such a good football team. But I'm taking the Rams. Sean, what do you think?
• 28:41
  Well, I was going to say it's hard to not bet on the bills right now, but apparently it is hard.
• 28:47
  It is hard not to bet on the bills. It is hard for you to, but it's not hard for me. I mean,
• 28:56
  seven in a row, man. Five of those by at least five points or more. You know, in those two,
• 29:03
  they were division rivals being the dolphins and the Jets, which is a little concerning, but you
• 29:09
  know, bills just they're they're fucking different, dude. They're on something right now. They're
• 29:19
  just better in every single facet of this game. The only thing that kind of concerns me is the
• 29:29
  bills are are kind of lazy on the road. You know, they they they lost against Houston
• 29:40
  and the Ravens on the road. But the Rams ain't Houston or the Ravens right now.
• 29:49
  I feel pretty confident in taking the bills minus four and a half here.
• 29:53
  I mean, I just I just had this thought that, you know, the bills are on this kind of insane run
• 30:00
  right now. And the AFC championship, Bill's chiefs bills come out on top to face the Detroit
• 30:13
  Lions in the Super Bowl. How awesome would that be? Bill's Lions Super Bowl, like two dog shit
• 30:21
  franchises in the Super Bowl who haven't won anything. How awesome would that be? It would be
• 30:30
  incredible. It would be it doesn't have anything to do with my why I'm taking this pick, but I just
• 30:36
  had that thought. And it's got me a little hyped up. But I feel really confident in taking the
• 30:41
  bills minus four and a half here. Yeah, man, they're just different. They're they're on something
• 30:47
  right now. Josh Allen getting engaged to Hailey Steinfeld. I mean, he's he's on cloud nine right
• 30:56
  now. I mean, his life is just life is perfect. Yeah, it's perfect. It's so but he's he Josh Allen
• 31:07
  is like one of the few men who I'm not jealous of, you know, I'm like good for you, dude.
• 31:13
  I'm jealous. Good job, son. No, I'm very jealous of his life. He's very good at football. He's a
• 31:27
  multi millionaire and he's piping Hailey Steinfeld. I'm very jealous. Yeah, and he's going to cover this
• 31:33
  game too, which is going to rock.
• 31:34
  Yeah. Yeah, that's that Super Bowl would be the battle of the craziest fan bases.
• 31:49
  It'd be awesome, dude. Yeah, I think there'd be fights. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Where is the Super
• 31:57
  Bowl this year? Vegas. Vegas. Oh my god, dude. Can you imagine both of those fan bases?
• 32:10
  It has to happen now. I mean, I'm not placed a bet just for those, you know,
• 32:17
  I do. I mean, I had the future on the lines when the Super Bowl. I would love it.
• 32:23
  Me too. Yeah, bills, mafia and Las Vegas. I don't really even give a shit if they win.
• 32:29
  Just I want to see the videos that come out of this. Oh, yeah.
• 32:36
  Let's see. I want to see something, but we can't continue. See what their odds are.
• 32:41
  Yeah, I want to see what the match up like the match of the specific. Yeah, like this.
• 32:47
  It's got to be one of the like the top three or four. Well, I couldn't find like exact matchups,
• 32:56
  but if you parlay the Lions Conference winner and the Bills Conference winner, it's plus 650.
• 33:07
  So I mean, they're the two favorites. No, they're not.
• 33:11
  They're not. Well, it's the Lions are the favorites and then the Chiefs are the favorites. Really?
• 33:18
  I thought the Bills were favorite over the Chiefs. No, no, no. Chiefs are 11-1, dude.
• 33:27
  The Bills beat them. Doesn't matter. Doesn't matter.
• 33:33
  We'll get into it right now, actually, why the, for the Chiefs.
• 33:39
  Okay, right now we're talking about Sunday Night Football. Chargers at the Chiefs,
• 33:47
  the Chiefs at home, favored by four. Chiefs really haven't beaten the
• 33:55
  shit out of anyone this year, can barely cover a number. And I am going to throw this to Sean first.
• 34:04
  All right. In my opinion, this is the best game of the week. The slate really sucks this week.
• 34:13
  So let's just have some fun over 43 and a half. Chargers are an offensive tear as of late.
• 34:22
  Chiefs continue to be the luckiest team in the history of the league. And but, you know,
• 34:27
  they're also no strangers to scoring. So I love this over. It's a prime time over. Doesn't scare me
• 34:35
  at all. Division over. Doesn't scare me at all. This could be a shootout. Let's just, let's have fun,
• 34:42
  dude. That's all I got to say, really. I really have no insight, no depth other than just,
• 34:50
  fuck it, we ball. And they ball because they're going to score at least 44 points.
• 34:56
  So yeah, that's my in depth insight into this game. Chris, what do you got?
• 35:08
  Opposite. Okay.
• 35:10
  Under 43 and a half. Just I get I get your reasoning. It is best game to slate. So have some fun. I
• 35:16
  just don't have any confidence in either of these offenses. They just haven't shown me anything to
• 35:22
  what? What I don't. The chargers haven't shown you any offensive life at all. Like,
• 35:29
  I mean, I wouldn't say at all, but I don't really believe in them. I don't think they're like some
• 35:35
  prolific offense. Plus, JK Dolman's done for the season out there run game was terrible to begin
• 35:40
  with. And now it's done pretty much. I just don't really, I don't really believe in either of these
• 35:48
  offenses. I don't think the Chiefs are going to go out here and ball out. I think they're going to
• 35:51
  do what they do every single week, play with their food for three and a half quarters and do just
• 35:56
  enough to win, whether it be by their own hand or the officials. I just, I don't really see a whole
• 36:03
  lot of points against scoring this game. I think the last time they played this game was boring as
• 36:07
  shit. I think we got a repeat. So yeah, under 43 and a half. Will, who side do you want?
• 36:14
  Neither. Coward. He's on another side, just not you or me. I know. Coward. He has to pick.
• 36:28
  All right, Will, if you were to choose a side, which one would you be on?
• 36:32
  Well, this is the reason why I didn't choose a total. Because he's a coward.
• 36:36
  I am a coward. But I will, I also didn't look at it. I didn't look at the number
• 36:46
  for the total. 43, 43 and a half. Man, that's so low. But like, it's not high either.
• 36:56
  Yeah, it's not really low, but it's not high. Yeah, I guess right there. It's just right there.
• 37:03
  It's an NFL total. It's just like,
• 37:10
  like, Chiefs are going to stay, they're going to play with their food. It's exactly what Chris is
• 37:16
  saying. It's just like, I would say I am a little bit more of a believer in the Chargers to put up
• 37:24
  some points. But I also think that the Chiefs are going to play up or down whatever it has to be in
• 37:36
  order to win the game by one or two. And I'm taking the Chargers. I'm taking the Chargers
• 37:47
  plus four here. Like, it feels like such a such a such a point where everyone doesn't believe in
• 37:57
  the Chiefs. And then they just go on a tear, just beat the shit out of everyone. That's kind of how
• 38:04
  it feels. But I had there's no there's there's nothing that tells me that they're going to
• 38:10
  beat them by more than four. Like it's I mean, yeah, they're 11 and one, but like,
• 38:19
  kind of barely, they barely beat the Raiders. I wouldn't even say they're barely 11 and one.
• 38:27
  I mean, they're they if you could, I mean, I don't have this in front of me, but if you could count
• 38:34
  up the one score games the Chiefs had. Yeah, or the field goal games like it's
• 38:42
  a I don't understand how anyone can bet on this with confidence on the Chief side. And so I got
• 38:49
  to take the Chargers Chargers been playing pretty well. They've been playing good football.
• 38:56
  That's, that's pretty much all I got to say about that. But I have I have been scared to bet a
• 39:03
  and a prime time over, but also scared to bet a prime time under. So I've been trying not to do
• 39:10
  either of those. But yeah, well, I mean, I like that pick. I was just too much for coward to take
• 39:19
  it. Honestly, yeah. Chiefs I looked it up. Chiefs have had nine one score games this this season.
• 39:27
  I mean, they could easily be two and nine. That's what's good or two and nine score games. They're
• 39:34
  11. They could be three and nine. They could be they could be three and they could be the bears.
• 39:40
  Honestly. Yeah, they could be the bears. Also, another thing you said, like, why don't I believe
• 39:47
  in the Chargers offense, Kirk Cousins gift drafted that game to them and they scored 17 points.
• 39:52
  So, okay, here's another thing, though, is that no, like, for real, though, like the Charger,
• 40:01
  like whoever made this like NFL schedule, I think they kind of hate the Chargers because what was
• 40:07
  it like the week before they played the Rams? God, where is it? Or no, I'm sorry, the Falcons.
• 40:18
  Yeah, they played Monday night against the Ravens. And then they have them fly out to Atlanta for a
• 40:28
  noon start for like a like a player body time like West Coast 10am start. And then there's like,
• 40:38
  okay, here's your biggest divisional rival two time Super Bowl champ, you know, like on Sunday
• 40:46
  night football. You know, it's kind of it's kind of it's kind of a shit schedule coming down the
• 40:53
  pipe for the Ravens or I'm sorry, not the ring, the Chargers. But yeah, I will say, I will say
• 41:02
  something about just the schedule, not just anyone's specific schedule, but there are just so many
• 41:11
  divisional games in the later part of this season. Like, come on, guys, let's let's spread this out.
• 41:18
  This is like when shit gets interesting, though, like this is when, you know, divisions start to
• 41:23
  get wrapped up. And, you know, this is when things have more implications to, you know,
• 41:31
  playoff appearances or divisional titles and stuff like that. But I do feel like though,
• 41:38
  that like there are more teams who are just have all divisional games the rest of the way than
• 41:44
  I've remembered it saying in a while, because the Titans this week are playing their second
• 41:50
  divisional game this season. Yeah. And it's we only play I know the Bears are in a similar situation.
• 41:57
  We played the Colts, right? Colts and who? Oh, and the Texas. Yeah. Yeah. So this is our third,
• 42:03
  but still it's week 14. I know the Bears are in a similar situation. And there's another
• 42:09
  folk. There's another AFC team that was kind of like that. But I forget off the top of my head.
• 42:13
  But yeah, I do feel like it's more just like later in the season, you do get more divisional games
• 42:18
  because the schedule makes it still a TV show. You want drama. But I do feel like there are a
• 42:24
  lot more this season than there have been like just stacked up like on a week by week basis than
• 42:30
  years prior. Yeah. It I don't know. Feels like maybe a little too much. I don't know. I mean,
• 42:40
  I like it. It makes it a lot more entertaining. But I mean, I don't I don't like it because like
• 42:48
  Titans are playing the Jags this week. And then we're playing someone else next week. And then
• 42:54
  we're just playing the Jags again. Like I don't I need some time. I mean, that's kind of what the
• 43:01
  Steelers Browns are doing too. Like they played two weeks ago. Yeah, it's time. And it's the same
• 43:07
  thing as Cardinal Seahawks. They played two weeks ago. And they're playing again this week. So yeah,
• 43:12
  yeah. No, I get what you're saying. I feel like it is kind of repetitive. Yeah, it just doesn't,
• 43:17
  I don't know. It doesn't feel like much has changed since their last meetings. I don't know.
• 43:23
  It's it's like, I don't know you. You gotta have points in the season, not just all the points be
• 43:30
  at the end of the season. I don't know. Okay, well, that's the that's the slate if we don't have
• 43:37
  anything else to add. Okay, that's the slate moving on to our surefire picks of the week double unit
• 43:46
  guarantee not to lose. And I am going to throw it to Chris to give out his surefire first.
• 43:54
  What do you what is what is your pick, Chris? All right. I lost my surefire in brutal fashion
• 44:02
  last week. Thanks to Matt Jones and the Jacksonville Jaguars. So I am getting revenge this week.
• 44:10
  And who better to be my soldier than my Tennessee Titans minus three and a half against the shitbag
• 44:20
  Jacksonville Jaguars. Is this a Homer pick? Yeah, kind of. But I got numbies to back it up.
• 44:27
  The last 10 years, when the Titans and Jags have played in Nashville, the Titans are nine and one
• 44:34
  winning those games by an average of 10 points. Even when we were terrible, which we are right now,
• 44:42
  the Titans beat the Jaguars. That just happens. And I think we beat them this week. And I think
• 44:48
  we beat them by more than four and they get revenge for what the just the inept Houston Texans
• 44:56
  cannot do for me last week. The Titans come through, they cover three and a half, they get my
• 45:01
  revenge, they cash a surefire. Who wants to go next? Sean, what's your surefire play of the week?
• 45:11
  All right. On the lowest of keys, this could be a sneaky good game from really bad teams.
• 45:22
  Yeah, it's Jags Titans over 39 and a half. Now let's go.
• 45:27
  Yeah, I love it. I love it. Yeah. I'm not saying he's good. But but Will Levis has
• 45:39
  been quietly improving at an impressive rate over these past, you know, a few weeks that he's
• 45:46
  come back from his injury. He's averaging over eight and a half yards per play or per attempt,
• 45:53
  I should say, with Pro Bowler and WI and Tony Pollard being in the top 10 of the rushing leaders.
• 46:04
  The Jaguars defense just may not be able to keep up. This will also be the Titans easiest
• 46:11
  matchup of the season. Like you said, Chris, it's it's death, taxes and the Titans beating
• 46:18
  the Jaguars. It's inevitable. But the Titans defense is kind of also in a little bit of a rut.
• 46:26
  They're in a little bit of shambles. Even against Mac Jones, I think they just aren't clicking.
• 46:33
  But even with his improvement, Levis is more than likely due for an IT or two. So yeah, let's,
• 46:42
  I like I said, lowest of keys. This could be a sneaky good game. 39 over 39 and a half all day.
• 46:53
  Will, what is your surefire double unit guaranteed pick of the week?
• 46:59
  So I don't have a Titans play to add to the same game paroled. Fantastic.
• 47:04
  But it is a game that I have previously talked about on this week's show.
• 47:16
  It's the Falcons plus five and a half. I like this. I really, really like this. This this number
• 47:22
  here. Like like Chris said, it's if it's at six, I'm hammering this. I'm hammering this.
• 47:30
  I like them to cover the number here. I like a bounce back game. They're leading the division.
• 47:36
  The Bucks are slowly starting to get healthy. And like the Bucks have been losing games, but they
• 47:44
  have been still putting up points. It's still kind of staying semi relevant. Probably the same
• 47:52
  relevancy as as the Falcons actually probably more because Baker Mayfield is doing everything by
• 47:58
  himself. They're just not winning all the games. And the Falcons, they got to they got to win this
• 48:06
  game. I don't think they will, but they were going to try. Damn it. And I love this. I love them to
• 48:11
  cover plus five and a half or six here. But yeah, that's that's my my double unit play.
• 48:18
  Okay, that's a those are the surefire picks of the week. And word that was so weird.
• 48:26
  Two Titans picks. I don't think that's ever been done on the show. No, I'm looking something up.
• 48:34
  Okay, then I'm going to get into the extra plays of the week. Oh, there we go. Hold on. Okay. Hold
• 48:43
  on. Hold on. Hold on. Yeah, hold on. You got it. Okay. So I kind of sneaky love this as well.
• 49:02
  Tennessee Titans over 21 and a half total points. I thought about that. Yeah, I was looking up the
• 49:09
  team total. If you parlay that with Chris's surefire in my surefire, you come up with a plus 250
• 49:18
  same game parlay. Can yes, we have to add another leg to that. Oh, the NWI touched it.
• 49:26
  Automatic automatic. Oh, he's the suit we get. He's top three. Yeah, I know the books are getting
• 49:34
  wise. Yeah. Plus 650 plus 650 four leg Tennessee Titans over 21 and a half Nick Westbrook,
• 49:42
  Akinae, any time touchdown score over 39 and a half Tennessee Titans minus three and a half plus
• 49:49
  650. I might do that. $10 plays pays 75. That number 15 is going to look real pretty hanging
• 50:01
  in from the rafters and new Nissan State. Yeah, I mean, oh, we don't trade him away.
• 50:08
  I don't care. He is hit number 15 is retired in my heart right now. He is on an unprecedented run.
• 50:17
  What is the what is the W stand for again, Chris? Suck my dick. That's what it stands for.
• 50:23
  I'm a fucking legend every week. I just I can I am addicted to it.
• 50:33
  Like when you're addicted to gambling. No, I'm addicted to Nick Westbrook and
• 50:38
  Kine touchdowns. Like even if I wasn't gambling, I would just as a fan, I would need it every week.
• 50:44
  And I'm getting it every week. And just when this last week, when love has just dropped it right in
• 50:51
  a bucket, 30 yards out, when I saw 15 just coming up and I was like, oh, this is this is it. Like,
• 50:58
  I wasn't even worried. Anyone else I'd be like, hey, might drop it, might get better way. I don't
• 51:02
  know. But no, Nick Westbrook and Kine catches fucking touchdowns doesn't do much else, but we
• 51:07
  don't need him to do much else. Pro Bowl and WI right. I will say right before that play,
• 51:16
  sit with Will. And I was like, what the fuck are they doing? Like, yeah, I was like, what are they
• 51:26
  doing? And then like, he just dropped it into his hands. And I was like, oh, let's go. They just
• 51:35
  decided to do the touch the NWI touchdown play. Oh, yeah. It's automatic. Yeah. It's awesome.
• 51:43
  Yeah. NWI, I was getting to it at like plus 1300 earlier this season. It was fun. Yep.
• 51:53
  It's been plus 180 now plus 185 draft things as of this moment.
• 51:59
  They've gotten wise. Well, yeah, he's got eight touchdowns. He's tied with Amen,
• 52:04
  Ross, St. Brown for touchdowns. Of course, they're going to get wise on it.
• 52:09
  I'm just saying if I get it, if it can stand the 200s, now I gotta start getting a little
• 52:15
  cute and going first. And that's why I'm going to start losing money.
• 52:19
  Don't don't do that. Be responsible. You know, just any time you're still going to make money.
• 52:25
  It should be minus odds if we're being honest. Yeah, but
• 52:30
  get cute with first touchdowns and two or more touchdowns.
• 52:44
  Next week, two or more touchdowns plus 1500.
• 52:48
  See now, that's irresponsible because you only done that like twice.
• 52:51
  Yeah, that's irresponsible. But first touchdown is 900.
• 52:58
  Before we get into I know we still have extra play.
• 53:02
  We got maybe sprinkle Calvin Ridley also to do touchdown.
• 53:05
  Oh, yes. So that that was probably going to be a day pick for me against his former team.
• 53:14
  Calvin Ridley's kind of been killing it as of late. He's been putting up yards, dude.
• 53:19
  He hasn't, you know, he hasn't been putting up. Fuck you. God damn it.
• 53:31
  He hasn't reached the end zone as much as we like him to. But you know, he's
• 53:37
  he's been he's been getting some yards on in. They'll target him in the end zone. Like this is
• 53:43
  like the same way at this point, they're very much targeting and WI on the end zone.
• 53:48
  They will do that with Calvin Ridley this week on draft Kings, both of them to score. Parley is 850.
• 54:00
  Do we just add that to the parlay then? Honestly, might have to.
• 54:05
  Plus 1800. Is that what it is? Yeah. The parlay I mentioned plus Calvin Ridley
• 54:12
  any time touchdown plus 1800. I'll take. I might I might do that just for fun. I'll probably take it.
• 54:20
  Yeah. Yeah, let's just. It's the Jags, dude. This is like our Super Bowl. Like this is like a
• 54:26
  guarantee. Just having a good time. Yeah. I'm just enjoying this conversation. Anyway, we got
• 54:34
  a extra place. Yeah, we got some extra plays. Okay, extra plays. I'll go first. The two extra
• 54:44
  plays I got. I actually had the Jags Titans written down the over. So I will be taking that
• 54:51
  separately outside of the Surefire parlay. And then my only other play is Monday Night Football
• 54:58
  Bengals at Cowboys over 49 and a half or 48. Well, that's 49 because the Bengals have no defense
• 55:10
  and they can put. Sunny. Sunny the cat is sunny. Stupid cat.
• 55:22
  The Bengals have no defense and the Cowboys kind of don't either. They're starting Cooper
• 55:28
  Rush. He kind of sucks. But if CD lamb can just catch the ball, I don't I think this this over
• 55:37
  caches easily over on Monday Night Football. That's all I got. Chris. All right. Real quick.
• 55:47
  Real quick. What's that dude on the Bengals? Is it Hendricks? Doesn't he like lead the league
• 55:55
  in sacks or something? Like he's got like 13 Hendricks in Hendricks in. Yeah. Yeah. But you
• 56:02
  got to watch out for him though. And Cooper Rush like
• 56:08
  be careful. Oh, just to say, yeah, Trey Hendricks. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. Hendricks. Yeah.
• 56:13
  Yeah. But is it my turn? Yeah. Okay. Stupid cat. Sunny. No.
• 56:27
  All right. Anyway, I got I got I got four extra. One courtesy of Sean. Seox was two and a half
• 56:37
  taken that also have been those Cowboys over 49 and a half. Just Ryan biggles over until they
• 56:44
  get me reason not to offense is amazing. Defense is one of the worst I've ever seen. So give me that
• 56:52
  over Eagles minus 12 against the Panthers. No price young's been looking good. I think it kind of
• 57:00
  comes to an end right now in biggle. Jesus Christ can't talk Eagles have the best pass defense and
• 57:06
  football. They also have the best rush offense and football and the Panthers have the worst. So I
• 57:12
  think they kind of just do whatever they want this game. Sorry, Bryce young written for you.
• 57:16
  Think you get your shit rocked this week. And the last play of the week. Bears plus four ding
• 57:26
  dong the bitch is dead. Matt Iberfluss out. See a bozo coaching bump or coaching firing bump.
• 57:34
  They bears could win this game outright. The 49ers are deader than dead. They are they they
• 57:41
  can't do anything. It doesn't matter who's quarterback in this team. They can't do anything.
• 57:46
  Iberfluss not being on this team is incredibly just beneficial. So bears come in this game outright.
• 57:53
  I'm taking plus four and that is the card. I'm kind of a coward because I thought the same exact
• 58:01
  thing about the bears like it's like I kind of want to take it but like I don't know like yeah
• 58:09
  the 49ers can't figure out anything right now but this is I mean the bears want to take it. I just
• 58:17
  didn't want to take it. The bear should have beat the lot or should have at least gone to
• 58:21
  Overtown with the Lions. If they can do that if they had a competent coach they probably would have
• 58:28
  at least gotten field ball range there. If they can go to Overtown with the best team of the one
• 58:34
  of the best teams the NFC they should be able to beat just the whatever 49ers or at least keep it
• 58:41
  within four. So yeah I'm taking the bears. I just there's got like they probably like were popping
• 58:50
  champagne smoking cigars in that locker room when they when it was announced Iberfluss was fired.
• 58:56
  I it's more of a morale bump than anything so yes bears plus four.
• 59:02
  Sean what are you what's the rest of your card? All right well I only had two more but now I have
• 59:10
  four. Yeah Bengals Cowboys over whatever you guys said you made some great points. I didn't have a
• 59:19
  Monday night pick but I was teetering on that line of you know over but you know these teams kind of
• 59:26
  suck but Jamar Chase is has like 13 touchdowns or something something insane. Yeah gonna go with the
• 59:34
  Bears also plus four. I was burned by the you know interim head coach trend earlier this season when
• 59:45
  I went against the the Saints for the Falcons as my surefire pick but whatever we're gonna move past
• 59:55
  him we're gonna make up for it from Bears plus four. But yeah Raiders Bucks over 46 and a half
• 1:00:06
  running it back to a Bucks over and I kind of wish I had been following this as well but
• 1:00:13
  both teams are eight and four on the over this season so let's keep that rolling. Both teams
• 1:00:19
  have like you know kind of middle of the road defenses and offenses that you know they they
• 1:00:27
  produce they can fucking score. They got playmakers. They got playmakers. Yeah Tampa Bay's offense you
• 1:00:35
  know rebound at home barely winning against the Panthers last week. Aiden O'Connell inner center
• 1:00:44
  has kind of been more impressive than what Gardner Minshew has been doing his entire life just saying.
• 1:00:53
  Also worthy to note these last four meetings the over is four and oh so let's keep it rolling.
• 1:01:00
  And then last play Panthers Eagles over 46. Now they're over for you. Panthers have been kind
• 1:01:08
  of sneaky good at scoring as of late and the Eagles have scored at least 24 points in their last
• 1:01:15
  seven games. Panthers also have the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Saquon could go absolutely
• 1:01:23
  feral on Sunday. He's already the lead league leader in rushing. Yords. All right. I'm just going.
• 1:01:36
  Panthers Eagles over 46. We're done. Okay.
• 1:01:42
  Okay. Rushing yards. Okay. What else. What else do we talk about. All right. We only got like
• 1:01:53
  nine minutes but there was something. I saw something on Twitter that was a it's like you've
• 1:02:03
  got to be sick for praying for the 49ers downfall. And it was you know that guy like laying in the
• 1:02:09
  bed you know just like dying basically. Do you guys feel that way or like do you like it.
• 1:02:21
  I mean this to me this is a team that has been so close for many years and has made
• 1:02:29
  many Super Bowl appearances and just can't get there. And you kind of like to me you almost
• 1:02:35
  feel kind of bad but also like this is a historic franchise that has Super Bowls that has championships.
• 1:02:45
  Do you feel do you feel bad for like their their injury downfall or I don't even know what to call
• 1:02:54
  it really. It's not really a downfall. It's just it's just unfortunate I guess. I don't necessarily
• 1:03:02
  necessarily feel bad. Like I don't really sympathize with a team that's been to two Super
• 1:03:08
  Bowls in four years. Sure. I but I'm not like saying back here like yes they're failing. Like I just
• 1:03:18
  like I don't it's kind of like whatever. Like I don't love to see it but also I like parody in
• 1:03:27
  the league so it's nice that they're taking like different shit other it happens taking a step forward.
• 1:03:33
  Also yeah like your window is not open forever. Like this shit happens. Like I like yeah it's I don't
• 1:03:42
  know I don't feel sympathy. I don't feel like happy that they're losing right now. It's just kind of
• 1:03:49
  like whatever honestly. Okay. Like I think the like the whole Brock party thing like you know
• 1:03:55
  him being Mr. O'Rilvin I think it's a cool story but like they got they got dudes everywhere but
• 1:04:06
  I mean the injury probably honestly this is the story of the 49ers. They'll go to the Super Bowl
• 1:04:12
  and then get really injured at the year or or two after and their dog shit. They get another pick
• 1:04:19
  and it's great. It's another another dude another weapon and then and then they're great again
• 1:04:29
  and then they then they have it all figured out and so it's it's also kind of like you know they
• 1:04:35
  have a history of like that like they've won Super Bowls like I don't it'd be different.
• 1:04:40
  It'd be different. It'd be different if it was like the the the bills or like the Lions like
• 1:04:50
  because those teams haven't done anything and now that they're good like it's I don't know it's
• 1:05:00
  I don't feel bad but I don't I'm not happy. I don't know. Yeah it's it's it's just kind of I
• 1:05:06
  more or less just think of it as like this just kind of happens you know in the NFL where you
• 1:05:13
  know a team catches kind of an injury bug like they placed Mattensen or not Mattensen what's
• 1:05:20
  Mason and yeah CMC on IR this week you know CMC's done for the year. Mason he's probably done as well.
• 1:05:33
  Well it's unfortunate but you know it I wasn't necessarily praying for their downfall also
• 1:05:44
  nah like like at all but there there are people and you know is we are Titans fans and we are
• 1:05:55
  AFC you know we we mostly focus on AFC teams who are the bane of our existence like the Bengals the
• 1:06:03
  bills the Chiefs you know teams that are just constantly beating us and you know if you're a
• 1:06:12
  Cowboys fan you know you're not in the same division but you you fucking hate the 49ers
• 1:06:18
  so I mean yeah like I mean I get that there are people that are like praying for this downfall
• 1:06:26
  but also is it really like it this is just kind of part of the game like also like the
• 1:06:34
  injuries happen this shit happens all the time yeah and it's just and like Will said like
• 1:06:42
  that this is the 49ers like script almost where they're bad because they're hurt and then they get a
• 1:06:49
  guy and then he's amazing and then they're right back in the Super Bowl two years later they'll be
• 1:06:55
  back like don't Brockford he's gonna get paid he's gonna get paid and he'll be back and watch out
• 1:07:05
  you know like it might be like we're getting close to Shanahan just camp when when the big one yeah
• 1:07:19
  like we've been teetering on that for a while now I feel like it's kind of starting to get there it's
• 1:07:23
  like I just like he's a very good coach I'm not just being that if he got far today 31 other teams
• 1:07:30
  would fire their coach and heartbeat or they should at least I I just don't know if he can win this
• 1:07:37
  super and that's a very hard thing to do but when you're in the upper echelon of coaches
• 1:07:42
  you gotta win a Super Bowl and I don't know I just don't know if he can he's had
• 1:07:49
  three chances now if you count his OC with the Falcons and just he's blown leads and all
• 1:07:56
  and I just don't know if he can do it yeah I think it's um it's to those being against
• 1:08:04
  Patrick Mahomes and the other being against Tom Brady so I do get that it's like a shit draw
• 1:08:10
  but you had yeah you have leads in all three one being 28 to three yeah win one yeah I mean you
• 1:08:20
  had three shots yeah yeah third time obviously not the charm so all right fellas I'm gonna wrap this up
• 1:08:29
  yeah all right sounds good all right thank you so much for listening to watching really really
• 1:08:34
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• 1:08:43
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• 1:08:48
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• 1:08:57
  pick here soon for Thursday night football the Lions and Packers very very important game
• 1:09:04
  for for the the the north the NFC north on that division appointment television yes and then
• 1:09:18
  I think that's I think that's all I got actually thank you so much we'll see next week there's three
• 1:09:24
  of us now let's make some money
• 1:09:54
  you