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Oscars popularity contest: Why the 'best' films don't always win · The Morning Edition

0:02
S1: By now, you've probably seen the Reddit threads blowing up
0:06
S1: over which movie should win the Best Picture Oscar today.
0:10
S1: How can Ryan Coogler's Sinners, a vampire horror musical set
0:14
S1: in the Jim Crow era, not win, say, angry cinephiles,
0:18
S1: noting that it's also the most nominated film in Oscar history.
0:23
S1: And yet, one battle after another, the Leonardo DiCaprio starring
0:28
S1: film about a government that has devolved into an authoritarian
0:31
S1: regime is touted as the favorite. I'm Samantha Sellinger Morris,
0:36
S1: and you're listening to The Morning Edition from The Age
0:39
S1: and The Sydney Morning Herald. Today, senior culture writer Karl
0:43
S1: Quinn and culture and lifestyle writer Nell Jarrett's on which
0:47
S1: films tend to win at the Oscars and which often
0:50
S1: get shut out, and whether Timothee Chalamet will, yes, be
0:54
S1: punished for those comments about the ballet and the opera.
0:58
S1: It's March the 16th. Welcome Carl and Nell to the podcast.
1:06
S2: Thanks for having us.
1:07
S1: Okay, Carl, let's start off with you. Can you just
1:09
S1: tell us how the Oscars actually work in terms of
1:12
S1: the voting system? Like how much does popularity come into it?
1:16
S1: Does that sway those who are voting or is it
1:19
S1: something else?
1:20
S2: I think the one thing to know is it is
1:22
S2: a popularity contest, but it's a popularity contest amongst a
1:25
S2: subset which is Academy members. And there's around about 10,000
1:31
S2: of them, and that's up from it was just under
1:33
S2: 6000 a bit over a decade ago. So they've they've
1:36
S2: expanded it considerably. And part of that was out of
1:38
S2: the the whole there was a famous survey that the
1:41
S2: Los Angeles Times did which found that, you know, the
1:44
S2: average age of an Oscar voter was, I think it
1:47
S2: was 67. And most of them were white and most
1:50
S2: of them were male. So there was a real push
1:52
S2: towards diversity. And that that has. Okay.
1:54
S1: But who are they?
1:55
S2: They were members of guilds in the first instance. So
1:57
S2: there are cinematographers. There are actors, there are directors, there
1:59
S2: are people who are members of these various guilds. So
2:02
S2: the guild memberships, uh, make their nominations in their respective
2:07
S2: fields and they that's the first stage. And then, uh, those,
2:12
S2: those sort of long lists get reduced to a short list.
2:15
S2: And then out of those come the nominees, and then
2:18
S2: all the members of the, of the academy get to vote.
2:21
S1: But how is it a popularity contest? How does that go?
2:23
S2: Because there's still people, because these are still people who
2:26
S2: are having conversations with everybody else about like, who do
2:29
S2: you like? What have you seen? What's good? So there's
2:31
S2: a kind of self-reinforcing chatter. And Hollywood is a, it's
2:35
S2: an industry town. So people there are all talking about
2:38
S2: what they're liking, who's, who's, you know, hot at the moment,
2:41
S2: you know, so there is a popularity element to it,
2:43
S2: no question. So it is about acknowledging craft because these
2:49
S2: people know what it takes to do these things. So
2:52
S2: they they bring a certain degree of expertise to any
2:54
S2: of this, but they're voting outside of their field of
2:57
S2: expertise as well. You know, so they're they're being swayed
3:00
S2: by discussion. They're being swayed by sentiment. They're being swayed
3:03
S2: by is this. Leo? Leo DiCaprio's year, you know, has
3:06
S2: he has he earned it?
3:07
S3: Well, let's get into that. Like, like.
3:09
S1: How many winners, regardless of what category they're in, is
3:12
S1: it because this is just that person's moment? You know,
3:15
S1: it isn't necessarily the best male performance or it isn't
3:18
S1: necessarily the best picture, but for instance, parasite, you know,
3:21
S1: perhaps there were previous films in previous years that were
3:24
S1: foreign language that absolutely many people would have thought that
3:28
S1: was the best film, but was the guild just not,
3:31
S1: I don't know, enlightened enough to realize these films do
3:34
S1: not need to be in English. You know, English isn't
3:36
S1: the be all and end all. Like is it sometimes
3:37
S1: just about when the guild catches up with, I guess,
3:41
S1: the films where they are, you know what I mean?
3:43
S4: I feel like that probably is often the case in.
3:46
S4: In parasite's case, I reckon that absolutely deserved the win
3:51
S4: no matter what for the film that it is, but
3:54
S4: I think there definitely is a bit of the guilt feeling.
3:57
S4: They may potentially have to catch up a little bit
3:59
S4: if that is the case. And if you know, that
4:01
S4: could be proven without a shadow of a doubt. I
4:05
S4: feel like that's really disappointing, you know, and I feel
4:08
S4: like that almost the oscarj to a certain degree, because
4:14
S4: you want a film or a film maker or an
4:17
S4: actor or an actress or whoever to win for a
4:21
S4: project that deserves that win. You know, you want it
4:24
S4: to align with what they created that year or the
4:27
S4: year prior. And so it, it that just all of
4:31
S4: a sudden feels strangely, almost like political. If, you know,
4:35
S4: we're getting to a point where all of a sudden
4:37
S4: the guild is like, ah, okay, you know, Leo hasn't
4:41
S4: gotten his award yet. His, you know, best actor award yet.
4:44
S4: Let's let's just give it this time when probably there
4:47
S4: are earlier films in which he was far more deserving
4:51
S4: for that.
4:52
S1: But so many of us do think that, right? We
4:54
S1: watch the Oscars every year and we go, oh my God,
4:56
S1: they gave it to this person because they should have
4:58
S1: got it for the other film that they were nominated
5:01
S1: for X many years.
5:01
S2: For me, the classic example of that was Al Pacino
5:04
S2: winning for scent of a woman. I think it was 1992,
5:07
S2: and I think that was maybe his. Maybe I'm going
5:10
S2: to say it was his seventh or eighth nomination. He
5:13
S2: he had done much, much better work before that.
5:17
S1: That was really not an amazing. No.
5:19
S2: It wasn't an amazing film. I mean, what I take
5:21
S2: away from that film is Al Pacino going, ooh. And
5:24
S2: that was like, that was.
5:25
S4: To be fair, it's now very famous.
5:27
S1: But did he get did he get any Oscar noms
5:30
S1: for Serpico?
5:31
S2: Yeah, he got Dog Day, afternoon, Serpico, The Godfather, you know,
5:34
S2: like he he had done an incredible body of work
5:39
S2: which had not won him, you know, I mean, been nominated.
5:42
S2: So he got the.
5:43
S1: But is it political? Like, for instance, one of those
5:45
S1: films he was nominated for, I think, you know, features
5:48
S1: a transvestite character. So when that movie came out, Dog
5:51
S1: Day Afternoon was the guild perhaps just not ready, you know?
5:55
S1: Were they like, oh, that's a bit too far out
5:57
S1: for us. When. Of course.
5:58
S2: Look, I think you'd have to you'd have to drill
5:59
S2: down and see, well, who else was in the field
6:01
S2: and who won. And I can't I can't cite that
6:04
S2: off the top of my head. But I mean, I
6:06
S2: would just say that sometimes I've heard the theory that
6:09
S2: sometimes an actor like and this could be a factor with, uh,
6:13
S2: Timothée Chalamet this year, right? Sometimes an actor bursts out
6:16
S2: of the blocks and they're doing great work early in
6:19
S2: their career. Leonardo DiCaprio, the there's a theory that it
6:22
S2: took him. Gilbert Grape, so it took him years to
6:26
S2: win because he'd been, you know, people go, oh, he's young,
6:31
S2: he's doing great work. He'll be around forever. Right? He'll
6:33
S2: have his chance. Right. So that happens with particularly with
6:37
S2: male actors, maybe slightly less so with female actors, because
6:41
S2: there's tended to be a sense that they have a
6:43
S2: shorter working life. I think that's increasingly not not the
6:46
S2: case now, but that has historically been the case. So
6:49
S2: I think maybe there's a there's a sort of like
6:53
S2: a lot of this stuff is like, it's ineffable. It's
6:55
S2: it's sentiment and it's a perception and it's a kind
6:57
S2: of like, how do you make sense of what went
6:59
S2: on rather than like, well, this is definitely what's going
7:02
S2: on here. You can't say with certainty, but I do think, yeah,
7:04
S2: with with DiCaprio, that that was the case. It probably
7:07
S2: was the case with Pacino. It was probably the case
7:10
S2: with Dustin Hoffman, which may may be something with Shalom
7:14
S2: this year, right? I mean, on the Shalom thing, let's
7:16
S2: just make it clear he is not going to not
7:19
S2: win the actor because of what he said about opera
7:21
S2: and ballet. That is nonsense. The voting was already closed, right?
7:24
S4: So whatever.
7:25
S2: Whatever people thought about that and what he said about
7:27
S2: opera and ballet, it will have no bearing on whether
7:30
S2: or not he wins. It may have a bearing on
7:32
S2: how people respond. If he wins, you know, if he
7:35
S2: gets up on stage.
7:36
S1: Right. And let's just clarify, of course, we're talking about
7:38
S1: what he said about ballet and opera. Basically, no one
7:41
S1: going to see them. People have freaked out online.
7:45
S5: And I don't want to be working in ballet or
7:47
S5: opera or, you know, things where it's like, hey, keep
7:49
S5: this thing alive, even though.
7:51
S6: It's like, no one cares about this anymore.
7:53
S5: All respect to the ballet and opera people out there.
7:56
S5: I just lost $0.14 in viewership.
7:59
S1: You're saying, though, the people who vote, they're just human.
8:01
S1: They're swayed by all kinds of just, you know, petty
8:04
S1: human emotions. Why will they not be swayed?
8:06
S2: Because voting was already closed. Voting was already closed. They'd
8:09
S2: already cast their votes. It's a simple timeline thing, right?
8:12
S2: So what he said lobbed after voting closed.
8:16
S1: Okay. So do you think that it would have impacted
8:18
S1: had it fallen before voting?
8:20
S2: It could have gone either way.
8:21
S4: I reckon it could have. With the insane backlash that
8:25
S4: he's gotten in a matter of days, I reckon it
8:28
S4: absolutely could have made a difference. But I will say
8:34
S4: with Timmy, it's. I have to call him Timmy. I
8:37
S4: know him as nothing else in Timmy's case. I feel
8:42
S4: like he's really kind of leaned into oversaturation territory, even
8:46
S4: well before the ballet and opera comments, and so I
8:50
S4: am really intrigued to see what what direction the Best
8:54
S4: Actor category goes in because I. If Michael B Jordan wins,
8:58
S4: I will be over the moon. I think playing twins
9:02
S4: is feat enough for sinners. Like just that would be
9:05
S4: incredibly challenging. And he creates two such distinct characters throughout that,
9:10
S4: you know, you really connect to, to me and Marty Supreme,
9:14
S4: he's wonderful and you really believe he's embodying that character.
9:18
S4: He is that awful character, but it's almost like he
9:23
S4: took too many of those traits into his real life
9:26
S4: while campaigning during awards season, and I'm very curious to
9:31
S4: see if he has kind of shot himself in the
9:32
S4: foot a little bit.
9:33
S1: Okay, well, let's well, let's get into these films that
9:35
S1: we're referencing here, because now I'm going to go to
9:37
S1: you here for a minute because before we started recording,
9:39
S1: the three of us were chatting about the big contenders,
9:42
S1: of course, for this year's Oscars for Best Picture. And
9:45
S1: now we chatted about a couple of them that are
9:47
S1: not only major contenders, but they're also aligned with certain
9:50
S1: issues that people are getting very fired up about now.
9:53
S1: And of course, we are talking about sinners and one
9:56
S1: battle after another. So tell us about these films. Why
9:59
S1: do you think they're such contenders? And what is it
10:00
S1: that you see that they're aligning with now? Tell us
10:03
S1: about that.
10:04
S4: So I'll start with sinners. That's basically Ryan Coogler's take
10:08
S4: on the vampire genre. Essentially, for those who haven't seen
10:12
S4: the film, the gist of it is twin gangsters return
10:16
S4: to their hometown in Mississippi during the Jim Crow era,
10:20
S4: and they want to open a juke joint, but over time,
10:23
S4: it becomes overrun by vampires. That's basically the film, put simply. Ultimately,
10:28
S4: the movie. It's a metaphor for the exploitation of black
10:31
S4: culture and specifically the commodification of blues blues music by
10:38
S4: white led studios. And so the vampires themselves, at least
10:42
S4: in part, they pretty much represent, like white appropriators, literally
10:48
S4: sucking the creative energy or you know, the soul out
10:53
S4: of black art? Without, you know, enduring the associated traumas.
10:57
S7: Let me in, man. There's some weird shit going on
11:02
S7: out here.
11:03
S4: Then on the other side, the other massive contender this
11:07
S4: year is one battle after another, as you said. That's
11:10
S4: Paul Thomas Anderson's film. It's largely about a washed up
11:15
S4: revolutionary who's living off the grid, but he's ultimately forced
11:19
S4: back into the radical life when his daughter comes under
11:23
S4: threat from an old enemy. Um, one of the best names,
11:26
S4: I think, in movie history, Colonel Lockjaw, like. Come on.
11:29
S4: That name is just fantastic.
11:31
S1: Yeah.
11:32
S8: The rebellion text a little harder.
11:35
S9: I need to find my daughter.
11:36
S8: Well, then call us back when you have the time.
11:40
S4: And so what's going on beneath the surface in that
11:41
S4: film is that it's really exploring, I think, sort of
11:45
S4: that exhausting, cyclical nature of ideological conflict, right? Like kind
11:52
S4: of asking that question, can true revolution ever really end
11:57
S4: or can it ever really properly be accomplished? And then
12:01
S4: at the same time, it's also, you know, critiquing the
12:05
S4: sort of self-destructive nature of extremism and that's on, you know,
12:09
S4: any side or both sides, whatever it may be. And
12:12
S4: kind of, I guess, also highlighting the potential consequences of
12:17
S4: political obsession as well, because there are a lot of
12:20
S4: people in that film who you could say are sort
12:22
S4: of politically obsessed in a way. And so you only
12:25
S4: really need to take one look, particularly at the US
12:28
S4: right now, I'd say, to sort of see how timely
12:31
S4: these two movies are, you know, racism, immigration, disillusionment in
12:37
S4: like current political and cultural structures. This is also incredibly
12:43
S4: present right now. And both of these movies really touch
12:47
S4: on those themes quite heavily. So it's kind of no wonder,
12:51
S4: I think, that so many people have jumped on them
12:54
S4: so feverishly.
12:56
S1: We'll be right back. Karl, do you agree? Do you
13:04
S1: feel like there are films this year that their main contenders? Yes,
13:08
S1: because they're fantastic films, but also perhaps partly because they're
13:11
S1: aligning with what we are seeing in the real world.
13:13
S2: Yeah, absolutely. And it's fascinating. I mean, I think one battle,
13:16
S2: I'm not sure that it's that it has a really
13:19
S2: clear political political position, but it absolutely speaks to something
13:22
S2: about the moment we're in. And I think it's, it's, uh,
13:26
S2: it's one of a, you know, it sits amongst a
13:28
S2: cluster of films. I'd put Eddington and Civil War and
13:31
S2: even Begonia into the same space. In a way. They're
13:34
S2: all films about the collapse of the centre in, in, uh,
13:37
S2: in American political life in particular, but more broadly, Western
13:41
S2: political life. And I think they, they just have enormous,
13:45
S2: enormous kind of, uh, pertinence to the moment we're in.
13:49
S2: But one battle also manages to be just a rip
13:52
S2: roaring kind of, you know, adventure kind of, you know,
13:56
S2: action movie with one of the best sort of chase
14:00
S2: scenes I've seen since Bullitt. It's just amazing, you know,
14:02
S2: it's like unbelievable. So it gives you it gives you
14:04
S2: just that pure visceral thrill, whether or not you buy
14:07
S2: into what it's got to say about the state of
14:08
S2: modern politics in America. But yeah, I mean, they're really
14:12
S2: interesting films potentially, though, they will alienate some Academy voters.
14:17
S2: And I think that in the in the race to
14:20
S2: what wins Best Picture, there's always a chance of, of
14:24
S2: what some people might think of as an outsider sneaking through.
14:27
S2: I mean, the classic example was when Green Book won,
14:30
S2: you know, uh, and I think that was up against
14:32
S2: Black Panther and Black Klansman, if I remember correctly. It
14:35
S2: was like, and they were great films, really political films.
14:38
S2: But of course, you know.
14:40
S1: That was back in 2018.
14:42
S2: So, you know, the Academy membership is, although it's more
14:45
S2: diverse than it was, there is still, you know, a
14:49
S2: big cohort of old white men and, you know, they
14:53
S2: aren't necessarily going to buy into some of this stuff.
14:55
S2: So a film like Hamnet, which I happen to think
14:59
S2: is an absolutely amazing piece of work that has something
15:03
S2: incredibly powerful to say and quite universal to say about grief,
15:08
S2: about motherhood, certainly about parenting. It has a lot to
15:11
S2: say about sexual dynamics. It is, in its own way,
15:15
S2: quite a political film. I think, like gender, political film.
15:18
S2: It's got something fantastic to say about the transformative power
15:21
S2: of creativity in in dealing with grief. You know, it
15:25
S2: turns a moment of grief into a moment of transcendent art, both,
15:31
S2: you know, within the writing of hamlet, the play, and
15:35
S2: in the creation of Hamnet, the film. It's it is
15:39
S2: about grief and it's about transcendence through through creativity.
15:42
S10: He's got more inside of him than any man I've
15:45
S10: ever met.
15:46
S11: Who are you looking for?
15:47
S12: William Shakespeare.
15:50
S2: I could see that film sneaking through because it is
15:53
S2: in some respects, although it is, as I say, a
15:55
S2: kind of political in its own way. It's not an
15:57
S2: overtly political film in the way that one battle is
16:00
S2: or sinners is. I suspect people, Academy voters like like
16:05
S2: general audiences. I suspect they respond most strongly to films
16:09
S2: that seemed to be pertinent to their lives. Whatever is
16:13
S2: going on in their lives at a given moment without
16:16
S2: being overtly political. I think the more overtly political a
16:18
S2: film is, the the more resistance it's going to meet
16:22
S2: from some people. Some people will just go, oh, it's
16:24
S2: too political. I don't want to. I don't want to
16:25
S2: be lectured. If you what is it? Uh, Louis B Mayer,
16:28
S2: who was it? Louis B Mayer who said, you know,
16:31
S2: if you want to say, send a message, use Western Union.
16:33
S2: You know, it's like the idea that movies should be
16:37
S2: about entertainment, I think still holds sway amongst a lot
16:41
S2: of people in in Hollywood. And let's not forget that
16:44
S2: the Oscars are about Hollywood celebrating itself. So.
16:48
S1: And now I really wanted to ask you about today's ceremony,
16:50
S1: because of course, obviously the Oscars are an entertainment moment
16:54
S1: in and of themselves. And last year's ceremony was criticized
16:57
S1: for being a bit lackluster. But this year, of course,
17:00
S1: we've got the specter of American President Donald Trump looming
17:03
S1: over everything. So are you expecting any breakout moments, any drama?
17:08
S1: Is there anything do you think that we might see?
17:10
S4: You would think so, right? You'd sort of think, surely
17:14
S4: something's going to be said, something's going to happen. But
17:18
S4: if I'm being honest, based on what we've sort of
17:20
S4: seen so far. I mentioned the award season just before.
17:24
S4: We've already watched many ceremonies. You know, we've been through
17:28
S4: Critics Choice, BAFTAs, Golden Globes, actors, formerly the SAG Awards,
17:35
S4: and we just haven't been hearing much said or at
17:40
S4: least much sort of overt political statements sit on stage.
17:44
S4: It doesn't really kind of look like many people are
17:46
S4: really grabbing this opportunity by the horns to make a statement.
17:51
S4: That being said, I feel like there could be the
17:53
S4: possibility that seeing as the Oscars is, you know, films,
17:56
S4: night of nights, massive night for cinema and filmmakers around
18:00
S4: the globe, perhaps. Maybe they are just waiting for that
18:04
S4: moment to really make a massive statement.
18:06
S1: I wonder if there's a creative person, whether it's an
18:09
S1: actor or, you know, someone more behind the camera who's
18:12
S1: from Europe. I wonder if they'll if they win and
18:15
S1: they take the time to make a statement just because
18:16
S1: there's been so much anti-europe sentiment coming from Donald Trump's camp,
18:22
S1: whether it's, you know, JD Vance sort of schooling all
18:24
S1: the European leaders at a Munich conference. I mean, there's
18:28
S1: just been so much, um, hammering of the European countries.
18:31
S1: Are there any sort of, uh, candidates there for European
18:34
S1: figures who may be in a position to.
18:36
S2: Here's hoping that somebody from Greenland. That would be great.
18:39
S4: That would be good. Yes. I mean, the only sort
18:40
S4: of European person that came straight to mind would be, um, Skarsgard,
18:43
S4: because obviously Sentimental values is up for awards and Skarsgard
18:48
S4: and the best actor or best supporting actor, best supporting actor,
18:52
S4: best supporting Actor category and could win. Like there is
18:55
S4: a chance that he could win there.
18:57
S2: So my theory on this is that this is the
19:01
S2: big one, right? And so if you're going to make
19:04
S2: a statement that reaches as many people as possible, there's
19:08
S2: no point in doing it at the actor awards or
19:11
S2: at the Golden Globes. Maybe the Globes, they've got reasonable profile,
19:13
S2: but really you're better off keeping your powder dry, right?
19:16
S2: Say it once, say it well, say it in the
19:19
S2: on the biggest platform that will get the biggest headlines.
19:22
S2: It'll get the most media attention right. So if you.
19:25
S2: But there is also a few months ago, uh, Jennifer
19:28
S2: Lawrence was on, I think on a talk show and
19:30
S2: she was basically addressing the whole idea of sort of
19:34
S2: celebrity activism and saying that it maybe is counterproductive and
19:39
S2: that it can put a lot of people off. And
19:42
S2: I think she was addressing the whole the whole notion
19:44
S2: that people like her are seen by a lot of
19:48
S2: people as being incredibly privileged, and they're removed from the
19:51
S2: everyday concerns of, you know, regular people. Uh, so then
19:56
S2: leaping in to talk about whatever it might be, healthcare
20:00
S2: or immigration or whatever can feel like they're lecturing from
20:06
S2: on high to, to people and it can actually be counterproductive.
20:10
S2: So that.
20:10
S1: Is interesting.
20:11
S2: You go, you go to the, the, uh, Kamala Harris, um,
20:14
S2: election campaign. And there was a lot of celebrity endorsement.
20:17
S2: What effect did that have? It actually arguably put a
20:20
S2: lot of voters off. Right. It actually made it look
20:24
S2: like this is the, uh, you know, political entertainment elite.
20:29
S2: And they're telling us how we should live our lives.
20:31
S2: That did not wash with blue collar workers in America.
20:34
S1: Okay. Well, we'll be looking with great interest to see,
20:37
S1: you know, if they if they do it today. So
20:39
S1: thank you so much, Carl and Nell, for your time.
20:42
S4: Pleasure. Thank you.
20:54
S1: Today's episode of The Morning Edition was produced by Julia Carcasole.
20:58
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21:02
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S1: thanks for listening.