Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / This has only happened 6x since 1930s + Stock Market News 13 March 2024

Transcript

This has only happened 6x since 1930s + Stock Market News 13 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Alexia, and welcome to this life trading.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Pre-market extravaganza.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: What's going on today in the market?
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand the key things happening right now, the key data points.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand what we've only seen like six times in the last almost 100 years, which is where we are at right now.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: You can do about it so you can make more money, protect your money and everything else.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I'm joined today by a special guest, my CEO and all seriousness, let's get stuck in, shall we?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Let's get stuck in.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Put your questions in the live chat, as usual, and I will do my best to answer them.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Abuse the you know what button and I will shrink myself to the appropriate size.
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Here there we are, and oh yes, I made an educational freebie for you, if you want to call it that.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: A little bit inspired by this.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: We're up $4,800 so far on our $30,000 trading portfolio.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: That's this year only.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: We're not doing too badly, and one trade I've got open right now is a leap call, which is a really long trade.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: It's already up $500 since I set it up last week.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: That's not included in the profits.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: I only count my chickens once they hatch, so I never count unrealized profits.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: That would be silly, but I've made a document, actually a full walkthrough of how that works and when it's a good idea, when it's a bad idea and so on.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: So if you want to download that phoenixfrontorg slash leap, go for it.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: I'll also post it in the Facebook group tomorrow, but get your pause on it for free.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Phoenixfrontorg slash leap and it's just part of our effort to just make you smarter, better informed, so you can make more money, and there are moments where these are really good ideas and there are moments when these are really bad ideas.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: It's important to understand what's going on here, so check that out.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Phoenixfrontorg slash leap.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Now let's look at a couple of data points before we get to the kind of the big story, the big picture here, and of course, we'll look at the pre-market, which is looking pretty decent right now.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Nvidia has done a percentage point, but other than that, we're looking pretty good, so no need to freak out.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Tesla's done again a bit.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: We talk about that as well in just a moment.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: So there's a shift going on there which you need to understand.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You need to understand why that's actually happening, because it's very, very predictable and therefore predictable means we can make money out of it.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: That's what this is all about.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Danny likes the jacket.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: I thought we'd have to wear green today to support the calls, support the rally, and he uses the communist fist to support the capitalist rally.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Karl Marx is turning in his grave, although actually you know where Karl Marx lived in London, in one of the poshest neighborhoods, in a really, really nice house with Engels just down the road living the good life, which is kind of ironic, right.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: So they didn't really.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: They probably just became communists to piss off their dad or something like that.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I think that's probably what it's all about.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: What have we got?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: You've got the Mag7.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: So the top US tech stocks are up 2,259% here since, okay, 2014, long time frame, but it shows you why you should invest in US stocks, because the European, as they're called, fab5, which is rather pathetic really, and that's things like Novo Nordisk and LVMH and that kind of stuff ASML they are up only 483% on that story, whereas the market the MSCI, just the stock market generally is only up how much 154%.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Do you still think stock picking is for losers?
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Do you still think it's really risky?
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: It's fricking risky not to pick stocks Because you end up with 150% when you've could have had 400, 500, 2000 or somewhere in between.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: So buying the good companies and understanding what a good company is is so fricking important.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: If you're just getting started, it's great you're buying ETFs, but you're only ever going to get average results.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Go on average life.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: Buy ETFs.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: You want more than an average life.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: You got to study this stuff.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: You got to learn it.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Don't just buy something that somebody told you at the water cooler or whatever is in the headline right now, because that's probably the wrong thing to buy.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Just want to put that out there to encourage you to learn.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Come and learn and seriously, we have a.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: We have like a virtually free course on that.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: So what's the?
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: What's the?
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, this is the.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I'll write it down for you.
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: It's 99% off, like I'm not doing this for money in any way, shape or form.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: But if you're new to investing, or rather if you're like the ETF investor who doesn't quite know which way to go, do this.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: If I may type Felixfriendsorg slash stocks and it's a program.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: It's priced at $1,500 and you get it for 15 bucks.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Because that's me giving away financial education.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: If I made it free, you wouldn't complete the course.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, understand your psychology.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Everybody's like that, right?
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: So by making it $15, you're still actually going to go through it and then you're going to send me a message saying how bloody useful it was, because thousands of people have done that to smug.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: No, it's good, honestly, check it out, felixfriendsorg slash stocks.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: But let's, let's move on here.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: We've got we've got a.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: We've got a heartbeat in China tech.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: This is China tech here breaking out above the long term downtrend, which is very nice to see.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Let's hope that holds.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: We've got Tesla, which has been weirdly correlated with Bitcoin and it's well, I think they're getting a divorce.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: So that gap here is pretty significant.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Well, look at Tesla for a moment and then I want to get to what's actually there.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: This is the key story here is Tesla is an auto stock and I know people are having fits right now, you know, going.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: It's not, it's AI, it's, you know, robotics, it's it's self-driving.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: You don't understand it.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: It's everything we love Elon, elon for you know, emperor, and all of that, and I'm with you on all of that, not disputing it.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: But right now to the market, it's an auto stock.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: All of the revenue virtually comes from selling cars right, very little from everything else, and there's solar and subscriptions and all that.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: It's a car stock.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: And what happens right now?
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Carks are cyclical and right now what happened?
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Two things happened.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: This is interest rates, and they've gone from 0% to 5.25%.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: So what happens with car company stocks and, yes, it is a car company Right now it is.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: At some point in the future it may not be very likely Well, that's car stocks.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: When interest rates go up, they go the opposite way.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: And why is that?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Because how do you pay for a car?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: You get out a car loan.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: That's what 90% of people do.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Very, very few people walk into the dealership and say here's a bunch of cash.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, yes, drug dealers do, and you know, that's, that's pretty much it.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Most people go and they pay.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: The average payment, I think, is something like $700 per month, which is insane, insanely expensive.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: But the problem is that when interest rates go from 0% to 5%, that 700 becomes more and more and more.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Therefore, people don't purchase cars when interest rates are high.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Very, very simple, and that's what we are at.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: So it's a cyclical thing.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: It's going to keep going, but it's going to go back up when interest rates go back down.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: So you've got to have some patience, so you've got to understand the industry you're in car companies.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Cyclical Gold, on the other hand, is mooning in sympathy with, with Bitcoin probably, and this is a really interesting one, which usually is usually a prelude to something terribly dull, isn't it?
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: So smash the you know what and then we'll get into it.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: But We've had probably the two most powerful men in finance JP Morgan, cme CEO Jamie Dimmond and the Citadel founder, ken Griffin.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Those two together are like you know, the savior and you know Robin Hood and Mother Teresa, or you know we could think of some other things, you know.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Never mind, let's not throw insults at these gentlemen who clearly have the best interest at heart of the small investor.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: They're basically saying Dimmond is saying the Fed should wait for additional data before cutting interest rates and Griffin is saying Fed officials should move slowly in lowering interest rates.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: They're like the high interest rates.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Do you know why?
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: They've got a shit ton of money and they're enjoying the interest that they're earning on that.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan makes, I don't know, billions, a quarter, 10 billion or something silly just on interest rates, on your deposit money, what you put into Chase Manhattan, and they are getting that interest rate from the Fed, essentially, or from the government, and they're not paying it out to you.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: So they love high interest rates.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: They're like this is brilliant, keep them higher for longer.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: It's killing off the small banks, the competition and we're having a whale of a time.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So you've got to always understand why are people saying these things?
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So Big World Street doesn't want rates to come down.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: They're really enjoying this.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: But let's have a look at what I promised to have, a look at what's only happened six times since 1930.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And it's happened in 1938, in 1975, in 1982, in 1999, and in 2000 and 2020.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Any idea?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Does anybody have a thought?
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: I'm calling you a drug dealer.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: 95 error, lisa is not paying for a car.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Working for a car.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I like that Brilliant.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Karl Marx lived five years in Soho.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: He did Okay, good morning.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: And what happened?
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Well, any thoughts?
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Everybody has any thoughts.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: No, all right, plus 25% up in markets in five months.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: He might be thinking surely that's the beginning of a rally.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I mean it couldn't go higher, right?
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Well, do you want to have a look at the stock chart?
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: I don't mean to depress you, but I want you to know the unadulterated truth.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Let's go to a simpler chart here for a moment.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Let's look at SPX.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Let's zoom out a bit.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: Month, go with about little drawings.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's go to 2020.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Put some little markers in there.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: That was 2020.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, see what happened after that.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: We went from 3,300 down to 2,200.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Then we had 2009,.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Which where was that?
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Is it nine?
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: It must have been eight.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: It must have been eight.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Surely it was eight.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: That was 2008.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: We went down.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: I'm going to do a little measuring devices.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: We went down 50%.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: The one before that was it was 2000, and we went down 46%.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Then it was 1985, 1982.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Sorry, I was barely conscious of my own existence at that point.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: That doesn't look like a lot, but it was 1982 again.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I think it must have been 81.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: You get the idea.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: I suspect it was that one.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: We went down 25, 26%.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: You get the picture.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: 1972 was here, that one, and we went down 46%, and so on.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: You get the picture that this is a very rare occurrence where you go up that rapidly, that quickly, and it marks all the peaks followed by real misery straight afterwards.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Does that mean the party is about to end and everything is going to collapse?
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Not today, because NVIDIA is only down half a percentage point.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: But you need to be prepared for it and you need to understand how you make money out of it.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Because I will make money out of it A I will buy stocks cheaper and B I will trade the thing all the way down and I'll make lots of money out of it.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I really enjoy it.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: You can do that too, but you just got to understand and learn how it really works.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: We did a life trading session yesterday with 1,000 people, which was very cool, hence the banner still being up here philixfrancilorg.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: We might do another one, but yeah, so that's one thing really is you got to be aware of that?
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: The cyclicality of market is just like why is Tesla down?
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Because it's a cyclical stock.
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Interest rates are up, interest rates are up.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: What are they going to do?
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Interest rates are going to cause a recession.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Everyone's like no soft landing and, yeah, if you repeat that often enough, people will actually believe it.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: But in reality, it's exceptionally unlikely that you get a rally like this without something breaking.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Usually, what happens is something breaks, Something unforeseen happens Not the banks, we already know about that but something else will kick us in the backside and stab us a few times, you know, and they call it a stab in the back because you didn't see it coming, and it's always like that.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: It's always like that.
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: So one thing you can do is come and learn how we can make some money out of, like, some long trades, things that we think are really undervalued, and it's probably time to start looking for those, because, again, hedge funds have sold the most amount of tech stocks ever in the history of the stock market last week.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Why are they doing that?
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Because they think we made a lot of money.
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: Let's lock it in, right, let's enjoy our bonuses, let's not squander it away.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: And what are they going to do then?
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: What are they going to look for bargains?
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Right, so they're going to look for bargains.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: One way you can do that is by understanding how our leap options actually work, which I'm not a fan of, but occasionally they can be good, and right now there are a couple of good ideas with it, so check it out.