Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NBA DFS Process | October 20, 2026 | DraftKings & FanDuel Picks, Plays & Slate Breakdown
Transcript
- 0:03Speaker 1: All systems go.
- 0:05Speaker 2: Clear your liftoff. What's going on, everybody? Happy Tuesday. We
- 0:37Speaker 2: are back talking some NBA. That is great to say.
- 0:42Speaker 2: Also great to hear. Three games on DraftKings. Three Eastern
- 0:46Speaker 2: start time, which is why we are doing this show
- 0:48Speaker 2: this morning. Not much injury news, which, yeah, you won't
- 0:51Speaker 2: get too often in the NBA streets. FanDuel, only two
- 0:54Speaker 2: games starting this afternoon, but both sites have massive, massive
- 0:58Speaker 2: prize pools. They are filling pretty quick, so if you
- 1:00Speaker 2: are looking to get in the NBA streets and haven't registered,
- 1:03Speaker 2: definitely get in the lobby. I'm with the man, the myth,
- 1:05Speaker 2: the legend himself, Hebrew Cheetah, also known as Rio. Rio,
- 1:09Speaker 2: good to talk to you. NBA's back. How we doing?
- 1:12Speaker 2: Doing good. Yeah, good.
- 1:13Speaker 3: Best time of year for sports. You got the, is
- 1:16Speaker 3: it the Sports Equinox? I don't know what it's called,
- 1:18Speaker 3: but you got all the three major.
- 1:19Speaker 1: Sports, MLB, playoffs.
- 1:21Speaker 3: You got the year brewers, you and Nate's brewers in
- 1:24Speaker 3: the World Series this year, so that should be a
- 1:27Speaker 3: fun one against Tampa. And then... Yeah, basketball and football
- 1:32Speaker 3: going on right now, so great time of year to
- 1:35Speaker 3: be a sports fan.
- 1:37Speaker 2: Absolutely. Just speaking on baseball quick, since I haven't done
- 1:40Speaker 2: a show with you in a long time, but absolute
- 1:42Speaker 2: baseball crusher, so I know you follow it. Any thoughts
- 1:44Speaker 2: on the Brewers-Tampa matchup?
- 1:47Speaker 1: I think it's great for the game.
- 1:48Speaker 3: You've got two small-ish market teams taking down the Dodgers,
- 1:53Speaker 3: sweeping them emphatically as well. I love to see that,
- 1:56Speaker 3: especially after the Dodgers beat down on my Braves, but Yeah,
- 2:00Speaker 3: I think it's good for the sport to have two
- 2:02Speaker 3: smaller market teams in the World Series. I don't really
- 2:06Speaker 3: have a dog in the race, so I just hope
- 2:10Speaker 3: that it's a fun one, but I'll be rooting for
- 2:13Speaker 3: the Brewers for you and Nate's for sure.
- 2:15Speaker 2: Thanks. No strong lead, though? I don't know what the
- 2:19Speaker 2: odds are, but pretty close to a coin flip maybe
- 2:21Speaker 2: is how you see it?
- 2:22Speaker 1: That's how I see it, yeah.
- 2:23Speaker 3: I think both teams have really good pitching staff, so
- 2:26Speaker 3: I would say that the Brewers for sure have a
- 2:28Speaker 3: better starting rotation, but the bullpen for the Rays kind
- 2:31Speaker 3: of always been their strong suit, and both teams have
- 2:33Speaker 3: really good offenses top to bottom with power and stolen bases.
- 2:36Speaker 1: So I think that it's a pretty even matchup.
- 2:39Speaker 2: Just checked. Minus 160 plus 140 is the series price
- 2:45Speaker 2: right now. So, yeah, we'll be rocking in Milwaukee for sure.
- 2:47Speaker 2: It's going to be a great one. But no one's
- 2:49Speaker 2: here to listen to MLB. We've had a long enough season.
- 2:53Speaker 2: We're here talking some NBA. Got to say hi to
- 2:54Speaker 2: the boys. A lot of familiar faces. Sean. Sullivan, Little Neck,
- 2:58Speaker 2: two guys that absolutely know some basketball in the Discord
- 3:01Speaker 2: all the time. I am Rice. Kim, great to see you, Kim.
- 3:04Speaker 2: It's been a minute. Hope you're doing well. Sober, Ryan, Mr. Lichen, Kbeard, Richard, Jordan, Scooter.
- 3:12Speaker 2: I already said hi to Little Neck. Kid Lyman, Deacon, Zim.
- 3:17Speaker 2: Great to see all of you guys. Hope everyone is
- 3:19Speaker 2: having a great day. All we ask is the like
- 3:21Speaker 2: button and subscribe button. Helps us out a ton. Tris
- 3:23Speaker 2: get in here. Nate D in here. Just showing off
- 3:25Speaker 2: our Shippenation homepage real quick. As you can see, under
- 3:28Speaker 2: the NBA, we have projections, ownership, showdown content. Shout out
- 3:32Speaker 2: to Little Neck. Absolutely crushed last year. The Stone, like usual.
- 3:35Speaker 2: The Stone 2.0, which is new this year. And I
- 3:39Speaker 2: will click it real quick and share it because really
- 3:43Speaker 2: good for NBA. NBA is a projection-driven sport. It's a
- 3:47Speaker 2: lot less correlation, like an MLB and NFL, due to, obviously,
- 3:52Speaker 2: NFL quarterback throws a touchdown. It's to a receiver, usually,
- 3:55Speaker 2: a running back. You get A lot of points in
- 3:57Speaker 2: one outcome. Baseball, multiple guys on base. You hit a
- 4:00Speaker 2: home run, you get multiple points for multiple different guys. Basketball,
- 4:04Speaker 2: it's such an up and down game. A lot of possessions.
- 4:07Speaker 2: Stacking doesn't mean as much. It does mean a little more.
- 4:10Speaker 2: On shorter slates, we'll talk about that today. But as
- 4:13Speaker 2: you can see on the Stone 2.0, you can sort
- 4:15Speaker 2: by anything. Minutes, projection, ownership, point guard, shooting guard, small forward.
- 4:22Speaker 2: You can optimize your lineup, see how much is projected for,
- 4:25Speaker 2: how much ownership. how much salary you're using, if you
- 4:28Speaker 2: want to start plugging in certain players, and then optimize
- 4:31Speaker 2: from there. It's really good. Resists per game, rebounds per game,
- 4:36Speaker 2: anything you need to be able to sort, to go
- 4:38Speaker 2: by positions, to hand build quick, you can save. So
- 4:41Speaker 2: just say, plug in those two. I like this lineup.
- 4:43Speaker 2: You can save this in the top right, and then
- 4:46Speaker 2: right here, boom, your save lineups, and you can do that.
- 4:49Speaker 2: So it's like a virtual hand build. A lot easier.
- 4:52Speaker 2: So we do have Partner Optimizer over at SaberSim. on
- 4:55Speaker 2: multiple different packages. Let me just pull that up real quick.
- 4:59Speaker 2: But I do think if you're just on the basic
- 5:01Speaker 2: package and looking to build a couple teams, that Stone 2.0
- 5:05Speaker 2: is a great way to do that. But yeah, as
- 5:07Speaker 2: you can see, for SaberSim, we talk about a lot core, starter, ultimate.
- 5:11Speaker 2: I do think the starter is the best deal for
- 5:13Speaker 2: most people out there. The extra $ 50 to be able
- 5:16Speaker 2: to get 400 more lineups, SaberSim's projections and ownership, a
- 5:20Speaker 2: contest flashback to see what the pros are doing. There's
- 5:23Speaker 2: so many sports going on right now as our man
- 5:25Speaker 2: Rio is talking, there's no better time to get in
- 5:28Speaker 2: with us. But if you haven't tried us at all,
- 5:30Speaker 2: five days for $ 19, I think that's a good time
- 5:33Speaker 2: to take advantage of that trial as well. Also, we
- 5:36Speaker 2: do have single sport options in the single sport NBA,
- 5:39Speaker 2: less than a dollar a day for all of our content,
- 5:41Speaker 2: just $ 20 more for Saber Sim. So we'd love to
- 5:45Speaker 2: have you. And I'll show actually really, really quick the
- 5:49Speaker 2: NBA new slate station. I'm not going to, yeah, so
- 5:53Speaker 2: I'll go like, Yeah, I'll go like this. So you
- 5:56Speaker 2: only can see these top write-ups, but Rio does and
- 5:59Speaker 2: Matt Bellman, whoever's on it for the day, Ham on
- 6:01Speaker 2: the weekends, write-ups for the studs. As you can see,
- 6:04Speaker 2: the price is here, mid-tier and value. And then you
- 6:07Speaker 2: will see the cores come up as well. Rio and
- 6:10Speaker 2: Matt will be doing a DraftKings one, Ham on FanDuel.
- 6:13Speaker 2: I will be doing cash and you will see all
- 6:15Speaker 2: of that populate through the top. So very in-depth stuff. Again,
- 6:20Speaker 2: I showed a little bit off, but Rio takes a
- 6:22Speaker 2: lot of time. A lot of knowledge goes into this stuff,
- 6:25Speaker 2: and you can see in sorts by mid-tier and value. Rio,
- 6:28Speaker 2: I talked plenty. Anything you want to mention for NBA
- 6:31Speaker 2: specifically building teams? Obviously, this is a three-game slate, staggered
- 6:36Speaker 2: start time versus the usual NBA slates that are like eight,
- 6:39Speaker 2: nine games all within an hour or whatever. But, yeah,
- 6:42Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on today's slate in particular? Anything
- 6:45Speaker 2: you want to mention for NBA DFS before we go
- 6:47Speaker 2: game by game?
- 6:48Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say for this slate in particular, it's
- 6:50Speaker 3: kind of in tune with what you would see on
- 6:52Speaker 3: like a Christmas Day or like a Thanksgiving Day NFL
- 6:57Speaker 3: slate where you're going to have a lot of information
- 6:59Speaker 3: and a lot of time in between the games locking
- 7:01Speaker 3: to make decisions. So, you know, you could take stands
- 7:06Speaker 3: in the first games on some lower owned guys. You
- 7:08Speaker 3: could take stands on games throughout the slate and over stack,
- 7:11Speaker 3: things like that. Just a couple of ideas of how
- 7:14Speaker 3: you can kind of play the slate a little bit
- 7:16Speaker 3: differently instead of just jamming in projections. But, yeah, you
- 7:20Speaker 3: also need to be late swapping always, even on a
- 7:23Speaker 3: three-game slate. Any two-game slate, whatever it is, you always
- 7:26Speaker 3: need to be late swapping because people just still.
- 7:28Speaker 1: Aren't doing it enough.
- 7:29Speaker 3: And the longer we get into a slate, the more
- 7:31Speaker 3: information we'll have from the games before. So you need
- 7:34Speaker 3: to be updating as you go through every single game
- 7:38Speaker 3: on the slate.
- 7:39Speaker 1: And, yeah, tonight is no different.
- 7:41Speaker 2: Absolutely. Great call there. Saberson makes that a lot easier
- 7:44Speaker 2: to do so. Again, starter and ultimates are great for that.
- 7:49Speaker 2: Who did I not say hi to? Triscuit, what's up?
- 7:52Speaker 2: Nate D, Bryce, Big Money, Big Ed. First, Anthony, great
- 7:57Speaker 2: to see you. Spinblock, what's going on? I already said Zim. AFC,
- 8:01Speaker 2: great to see you guys as well. Yeah, great tournaments
- 8:04Speaker 2: on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yeah, they'll stay fine. I wish
- 8:07Speaker 2: they stayed something like this all year, especially on non-Monday
- 8:11Speaker 2: and Thursday NFL slates until the– Interest went down, but
- 8:18Speaker 2: unfortunately tomorrow you'll see probably a decent bit smaller one
- 8:21Speaker 2: than today. But hey, 200K up top, plenty of money
- 8:24Speaker 2: to win, and that's what we'll be looking to do.
- 8:26Speaker 2: What's up, Bronco? We're sharing our partner optimizer over at Saberson.
- 8:30Speaker 2: We go game by game for the NBA show, so
- 8:32Speaker 2: we will start off with the first game of the night,
- 8:35Speaker 2: the Boston Celtics and the Detroit Pistons. The nice thing
- 8:38Speaker 2: about this slate, like the biggest favorites, the Knicks at
- 8:40Speaker 2: minus 180, no favorite above five. So all these games,
- 8:45Speaker 2: Should be close, have OT potential, which is always nice
- 8:48Speaker 2: when fully stacking or stacking more to get those five
- 8:52Speaker 2: extra minutes in overtime. But Celtics are minus one and
- 8:56Speaker 2: a half point favorites over the Detroit Pistons. 220 and
- 8:59Speaker 2: a half total, which is the last on the slate.
- 9:01Speaker 2: The other two games, 231 and a half and 230
- 9:05Speaker 2: and a half. Just shortened by ownership in this game.
- 9:08Speaker 2: Peyton Pritchard and then Azure Thompson, Jalen Duren and Jason Tatum. Obviously,
- 9:13Speaker 2: Jalen Brown leaves first. Boston. Yeah. I mean, I saw
- 9:16Speaker 2: the warmup with those guys. Didn't even say a word
- 9:19Speaker 2: or something. Definitely something going on there, but yeah. What
- 9:22Speaker 2: are you doing in the first game of the night,
- 9:24Speaker 2: Boston and the Pistons? Yeah.
- 9:27Speaker 3: Before I jump in, you got to say what up
- 9:29Speaker 3: to a familiar face. Got BJ in here. Hope all
- 9:32Speaker 3: is going well.
- 9:32Speaker 2: With you, my man. Mr. Somehow. I don't know where,
- 9:36Speaker 2: where you put that, but good to see it be. Oh,
- 9:38Speaker 2: there he is. Good to see BJ. Yeah.
- 9:41Speaker 3: Yeah, but like you said, this game does feature the
- 9:43Speaker 3: lowest over-under on the slate. Pricing, I'm going to probably
- 9:46Speaker 3: say it a lot, but pricing is really soft on
- 9:48Speaker 3: the slate in comparison to what we saw from most
- 9:51Speaker 3: guys on these teams last year. But yeah, we got
- 9:56Speaker 3: some familiar or some new faces on each side of this,
- 9:59Speaker 3: of these teams. Boston obviously made the big trade, getting
- 10:02Speaker 3: rid of Jalen Brown, sending him to the Sixers and
- 10:05Speaker 3: got Paul George in return. I do think that Paul
- 10:08Speaker 3: George could fit pretty nicely. Obviously I think Jalen Brown
- 10:11Speaker 3: is a much more talented player and just better, better
- 10:13Speaker 3: overall player than Paul George at this point of his career.
- 10:16Speaker 3: But in terms of fit, I do think that he
- 10:19Speaker 3: fits a little bit better in terms of what the
- 10:22Speaker 3: offensive scheme is with Joe Mazzulla. And he's not going
- 10:25Speaker 3: to be taking away usage from guys that they want
- 10:28Speaker 3: to have the ball in their hands. Like guys like Tatum,
- 10:29Speaker 3: Derek White and Peyton Pritchard that all have really strong
- 10:32Speaker 3: roles this year with Jalen Brown, no longer there. They
- 10:35Speaker 3: also added the front court, some front court depth champion
- 10:39Speaker 3: Mitchell Robinson is going to be, looks like he's going
- 10:41Speaker 3: to be starting. I think that they'll be going with him.
- 10:44Speaker 3: They did start him in the preseason. So I think
- 10:46Speaker 3: that's going to be, him in front of Keita to
- 10:48Speaker 3: start this year maybe we'll see it flip but I
- 10:50Speaker 3: doubt it I really like that addition as well just
- 10:54Speaker 3: adding a guy with crazy historic offensive rebounding rates to
- 10:59Speaker 3: a team that's going to be launching a ton of
- 11:00Speaker 3: threes and you know keeping possessions alive is exactly what
- 11:04Speaker 3: he does I really think that it's a really strong
- 11:05Speaker 3: fit for Boston to add a guy like Mitchell Robinson
- 11:09Speaker 3: as for Detroit let Tobias Harris walk and then sign
- 11:11Speaker 3: John Collins I think that's a pretty lateral move in
- 11:14Speaker 3: terms of talent level there I think both guys kind
- 11:17Speaker 3: of do similar things uh Collins is a little bit
- 11:20Speaker 3: younger more athletic but both guys I would say are
- 11:23Speaker 3: more like stretch bigs but I do think that he
- 11:25Speaker 3: fits slightly better than Tobias does just adding another lob
- 11:28Speaker 3: threat alongside Cade and Asar with Jalen Duren uh it
- 11:32Speaker 3: does make some sense and then Isaiah Joe added some
- 11:34Speaker 3: bench depth some three-point shooting which they really really needed
- 11:37Speaker 3: because they are one of the lowest uh frequency three-point
- 11:40Speaker 3: shooting teams in the NBA last season uh they were
- 11:43Speaker 3: actually the second lowest three-point frequency in the NBA last year.
- 11:46Speaker 3: So adding him, keeping Duckman Robinson definitely helps him out
- 11:50Speaker 3: in that regard. How these teams match up, though, I
- 11:53Speaker 3: do think that it sets up pretty well for Boston.
- 11:54Speaker 3: I saw somebody in the chat say that Boston rolls here,
- 11:57Speaker 3: and I kind of can see that happening as well.
- 11:59Speaker 3: Just the way that Boston is going to be launching
- 12:02Speaker 3: away from three. Detroit is much more of a three-point funnel,
- 12:05Speaker 3: always been a team that's really good on the interior,
- 12:07Speaker 3: and they'll be that way once again. But yeah, I
- 12:10Speaker 3: really do think that there's a chance that Boston could
- 12:13Speaker 3: blow this game away just with the way that they
- 12:15Speaker 3: can pile on a ton of threes and Detroit, their offense,
- 12:19Speaker 3: a lot of question marks around it. If they're not
- 12:21Speaker 3: really going to be able to shoot the ball from
- 12:22Speaker 3: three of two guys and during an SR that literally
- 12:25Speaker 3: won't be taking any threes, Cade, not the most prolific
- 12:28Speaker 3: three-point shooter.
- 12:29Speaker 1: And then you got John Collins and Dr. Robinson, the
- 12:31Speaker 1: starting unit.
- 12:31Speaker 3: I do think that there is a chance Boston could
- 12:34Speaker 3: roll here, adding Paul George over Jalen Brown.
- 12:37Speaker 1: He's a 39% three-point shooter compared to 34.7% from Brown.
- 12:38Speaker 3: So, upgraded that department but yeah i do like boston
- 12:43Speaker 3: win this one here um i think it's a really
- 12:47Speaker 3: good spot and just price tag and kind of just
- 12:50Speaker 3: overall outlook for jason tatum i think that we see
- 12:54Speaker 3: a healthy tatum this year getting you know further away
- 12:56Speaker 3: from the achilles injury from two playoffs ago um i
- 13:00Speaker 3: think he's got mbp like aspirations this year gonna have
- 13:03Speaker 3: a huge role with jaylen brown off the court We
- 13:06Speaker 3: saw his usage jump nearly seven points for up to
- 13:09Speaker 3: 37% last season, average 1.44 fantasy points per minute. There's
- 13:13Speaker 3: more data if you want to go back even further
- 13:14Speaker 3: to 2024 with Jalen Brown off the court, but it's
- 13:17Speaker 3: a lot of the same. You're going to see increases
- 13:19Speaker 3: across the board. The usage in the preseason was at 29%,
- 13:23Speaker 3: 28% assist percentage, 20% rebounding rate roughly. So it's a
- 13:28Speaker 3: guy that could be 40 with a triple-double literally every
- 13:30Speaker 3: time that he steps on the court. And to make
- 13:33Speaker 3: matters a little bit better for him, I don't think
- 13:35Speaker 3: that a SAR is going to be on him. I
- 13:36Speaker 3: could be wrong there, but last year they were putting
- 13:39Speaker 3: a SAR on the lead guards on Boston. So it
- 13:42Speaker 3: was more Tobias Harris and those types of guys on
- 13:44Speaker 3: Tatum and Jillian Brown. So if it's John Collins on
- 13:47Speaker 3: Jason Tatum, really think it's a good spot for him.
- 13:49Speaker 3: I'm going to be jamming him in pretty much every
- 13:51Speaker 3: slate until we see him above 10 K. Cause I
- 13:53Speaker 3: really do think that's where he should be priced. But yeah,
- 13:56Speaker 3: tonight's no different. I'm going to be starting with a
- 13:57Speaker 3: lot of Tatum in my lineups tonight, dropping down to
- 14:01Speaker 3: Derek white, A guy that's going to be getting overlooked,
- 14:04Speaker 3: I do think rightfully so, though.
- 14:06Speaker 1: He was really.
- 14:07Speaker 3: Struggling shooting the ball last year down to 32% from
- 14:09Speaker 3: deep versus being a career 37% three-point shooter. But like
- 14:14Speaker 3: everybody on the team, he's going to see a big
- 14:15Speaker 3: usage bump with no Jalen Brown. And it's really just
- 14:19Speaker 3: a matter of whether or not he's making his shots.
- 14:21Speaker 3: The good news for him in the preseason, he was
- 14:23Speaker 3: getting in the paint a little bit more. More of
- 14:24Speaker 3: his scoring was in the two-point range. So if he
- 14:28Speaker 3: can get some shots going, some easier shots going in
- 14:31Speaker 3: that floater and around the rim, And then if you
- 14:34Speaker 3: run into a hot shooting night, there's definitely an outcome
- 14:37Speaker 3: where Derek White does pay off the 7K price tag.
- 14:39Speaker 3: But I think overall, guys like Paul George and Peyton
- 14:41Speaker 3: Pritchard and then some other guys in the comparable price
- 14:44Speaker 3: tag are going to be much better plays. But you
- 14:47Speaker 3: are getting him at pretty low ownership. I need to
- 14:50Speaker 3: see what a saver half.
- 14:52Speaker 1: I'm at tonight.
- 14:53Speaker 2: Which one? Derek White. Yeah, 7%.
- 14:55Speaker 3: Yeah. Yeah, I probably want to be overweight, because I
- 15:00Speaker 3: do think there's more than a 7% chance that he's
- 15:03Speaker 3: the guy that you need. But still fourth on the
- 15:05Speaker 3: list for the Celtics tonight for me. I do think
- 15:08Speaker 3: Paul George is a little bit better, had pretty strong
- 15:10Speaker 3: preseason usage, looks healthy to start the year. Like I
- 15:13Speaker 3: said up top, I think that he does thrive in
- 15:15Speaker 3: this type of offensive scheme, so I'm.
- 15:18Speaker 1: Good with him.
- 15:20Speaker 3: And then Payne Pritchard is going to be one of
- 15:23Speaker 3: the shockier plays on the slate, but I think for
- 15:24Speaker 3: good reason. The Celtics extended him in the offseason, going
- 15:28Speaker 3: to get an immediate chance for a larger role. There's
- 15:30Speaker 3: been a lot of positive things around Peyton Pritchard coming
- 15:33Speaker 3: into the year. He was really good in the preseason.
- 15:37Speaker 3: They're kind of changing up his role a little bit more.
- 15:38Speaker 3: He was more of an on-ball role, like a prototypical
- 15:41Speaker 3: point guard, had a 36% assist percentage, 132.8%– not percent,
- 15:47Speaker 3: but 132.8% offensive rating when he was on the court
- 15:50Speaker 3: as well. So offense was humming with him out there.
- 15:53Speaker 3: But– Like I said, with Asar, the downside is that
- 15:57Speaker 3: it could be Asar and Pritchard. They did have that
- 15:59Speaker 3: matchup a lot last year, but their minutes might be
- 16:02Speaker 3: staggered a little bit more, so Pritchard is expected to come.
- 16:05Speaker 1: Off the bench.
- 16:06Speaker 3: Still would treat him with starter-like minutes, so if you
- 16:09Speaker 3: see him coming off the bench, no need to run
- 16:11Speaker 3: and tag everybody in the Discord.
- 16:12Speaker 1: He's projected to come.
- 16:13Speaker 3: Off the bench, but I'm not going to be overthinking
- 16:16Speaker 3: the price tag for him at 5.4K. I think he's
- 16:19Speaker 3: close to a lock for 6X, his price tag, even
- 16:22Speaker 3: in a tougher matchup, just from the Expected role increase.
- 16:26Speaker 3: I'm pretty high on Pritchard and Tatum in particular this season,
- 16:29Speaker 3: but tonight as well. And then Keita and Mitch Robb
- 16:33Speaker 3: going to be split in the 48 minutes down the middle.
- 16:36Speaker 1: Maybe somebody gets 26, 27. I doubt it, though.
- 16:39Speaker 3: I think they're going to want to go pretty much 50-50.
- 16:42Speaker 3: Not into either of them as much in this type
- 16:45Speaker 3: of matchup. Both are good from a permanent perspective. I'd
- 16:49Speaker 3: probably lean Mitchell Robson because he's cheaper and going to
- 16:51Speaker 3: be starting, but no strong lean there. Is there anything
- 16:55Speaker 3: that you want to add on the Boston side before
- 16:57Speaker 3: I get over to Detroit?
- 16:58Speaker 2: Because I think that's all. If Kata started, would you
- 17:01Speaker 2: just swap your interests? Yeah, probably. Who else besides, like,
- 17:06Speaker 2: I always look at the minute projections on Sabreson, but,
- 17:09Speaker 2: I mean, clearly something's off because there's no way Jason
- 17:13Speaker 2: Tatum's playing 33 minutes in a close game. Any of
- 17:15Speaker 2: these other ones that you see that looked under-projected in
- 17:20Speaker 2: terms of minutes or over? Like Pritchard's not playing 27
- 17:22Speaker 2: and a half. Any other of these guys? I have
- 17:26Speaker 2: screen sharing it too, if it's easier that way.
- 17:31Speaker 1: I mean, all the starters.
- 17:32Speaker 2: Just all starters? Yeah, they're just giving too much to
- 17:35Speaker 2: the bench. Yeah, definitely.
- 17:37Speaker 3: I mean, Pritchard's probably four minutes under projected. I'd say
- 17:40Speaker 3: Tatum like three, like two and a half maybe. Yeah,
- 17:44Speaker 3: all these guys should be in like the 32, like
- 17:46Speaker 3: 34-ish range, I would say.
- 17:48Speaker 2: Yeah, it does feel... I think Mitrov's an interesting contrarian
- 17:53Speaker 2: center play. Yeah, you can say that about Keita or Mitrov.
- 17:55Speaker 2: If either get in foul trouble, too, and you do
- 17:57Speaker 2: get the extended minutes, I think that's interesting at single-digit ownership.
- 18:02Speaker 2: I mean, Tatum just looks like the best play, arguably,
- 18:05Speaker 2: on the slate. Ownership's going to follow, though, so no
- 18:09Speaker 2: hot take right there. Peyton Pritchard, I think, is elite
- 18:12Speaker 2: as well. If I had to mix in a secondary guy,
- 18:15Speaker 2: it is Paul George over a Derek White and stuff,
- 18:17Speaker 2: but it's harder for me to get to these these
- 18:19Speaker 2: bench plays, I don't have any hot takes on the
- 18:22Speaker 2: Boston side. It sounds like you like Boston as a
- 18:25Speaker 2: bet though. Yeah.
- 18:26Speaker 1: I like them to win this game tonight.
- 18:27Speaker 2: All right. I'm not, that's what I'm, that's what I
- 18:30Speaker 2: was loading up on my phone, trying to get some
- 18:32Speaker 2: back yesterday from yesterday. All right. But yeah, Paul, what
- 18:35Speaker 2: about Paul Reed? He's looks top of the value on
- 18:39Speaker 2: Detroit side in terms of our, our point per dollar
- 18:42Speaker 2: Saberson in our average. Yeah.
- 18:44Speaker 3: I mean, probably one of the few guys on the
- 18:47Speaker 3: slate sub 4k that's, strong play I think like it's
- 18:52Speaker 3: probably him and Isaiah Joe but I'm not seeing a
- 18:55Speaker 3: ton sub 4k that I'm really excited about I would
- 18:59Speaker 3: say like overall on this slate I'm going to try
- 19:01Speaker 3: to stay away from those types of guys especially on
- 19:03Speaker 3: like single entry and satellites or like any sort of
- 19:07Speaker 3: like higher stakes thing I probably want to get away
- 19:09Speaker 3: from the Paul Reeds because I do think that pricing
- 19:11Speaker 3: is really soft and you could jam in a lot
- 19:13Speaker 3: of guys that are going to be playing a lot
- 19:15Speaker 3: of minutes tonight but yeah I have no issues there
- 19:19Speaker 3: Let me pull up the Pistons side. Yeah, I think
- 19:23Speaker 3: it all starts in the Pistons with Cade. I'm not
- 19:26Speaker 3: really breaking any news there, but he's going to have
- 19:28Speaker 3: a massive role. We've talked about it pretty much since
- 19:31Speaker 3: we've been doing NBA shows that his role is just
- 19:33Speaker 3: some of the best in the entire NBA in terms
- 19:35Speaker 3: of usage, touchdown, assist percentage, rebounding, all that stuff are
- 19:39Speaker 3: really good numbers and definitely indicative of a guy that
- 19:43Speaker 3: should be priced above 10 K. And I'm fine with
- 19:46Speaker 3: the matchup. The Boston was the bottom four and pick
- 19:49Speaker 3: and roll defense last year.
- 19:50Speaker 1: Cade, one of the better pick and roll scores in
- 19:52Speaker 1: the league.
- 19:53Speaker 3: And it's pretty sticky over the past couple of years
- 19:55Speaker 3: that Joe Missoula has been the head coach for Boston,
- 19:58Speaker 3: that they do give up more pick and rolls on average.
- 20:02Speaker 3: Cade was great against Boston last year, average 52 DK
- 20:05Speaker 3: points per game against the Celtics. So I'm totally fine
- 20:07Speaker 3: with him as a spend up. I think that, Ownership
- 20:10Speaker 3: looks pretty much in check on him. Yeah, 17% feels good.
- 20:15Speaker 3: I think that it's a pretty good spot for Cade,
- 20:16Speaker 3: so I'm totally fine with him there. A little bit
- 20:19Speaker 3: more excited about the upside and just guys like Jalen
- 20:23Speaker 3: Duren and Asar Thompson taking a step forward. If you
- 20:27Speaker 3: had to guess, I mean, it's obviously kind of like
- 20:30Speaker 3: I'm leading to it, but Jalen Duren had a huge
- 20:33Speaker 3: usage role in the preseason. I'm not sure if you
- 20:35Speaker 3: kept up with preseason stuff as much, but he was
- 20:37Speaker 3: behind just Luka Doncic in preseason. usage in the preseason
- 20:41Speaker 3: um and it sounds like everything was running through him
- 20:44Speaker 3: in like a low post uh not even just a
- 20:47Speaker 3: low post he was taking them all up at times
- 20:49Speaker 3: he was at the top of the key yeah they
- 20:51Speaker 3: were really looking to use him in more of like
- 20:53Speaker 3: a ball handling role i think that they did that
- 20:55Speaker 3: early on last year as well i remember him having
- 20:58Speaker 3: some pretty crazy numbers and like flirting with a triple
- 21:01Speaker 3: double early in the season and then kind of as
- 21:03Speaker 3: the season rolls along you get away from stuff earlier
- 21:06Speaker 3: in the year but I mean, they just signed to
- 21:09Speaker 3: a huge deal. They obviously are locked in long-term with him.
- 21:13Speaker 3: So his, how he looks long-term is really like how
- 21:18Speaker 3: good the Pistons are going to be.
- 21:19Speaker 1: So they definitely are invested heavily in him.
- 21:21Speaker 3: So I wouldn't be surprised if that, what we saw
- 21:23Speaker 3: in the preseason, he's probably not going to have like
- 21:25Speaker 3: a 36% usage rate, but high twenties is definitely in play.
- 21:30Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm really high on Jalen Dern. Definitely don't
- 21:33Speaker 3: think the matchup is good. Mitchell Robinson, Cato, very, very,
- 21:36Speaker 3: well equipped to guard a guy like Jalen Duren. But
- 21:39Speaker 3: if the role is really going to be close to
- 21:41Speaker 3: what we saw in the preseason or even a fraction
- 21:43Speaker 3: of what we saw, then yeah, he's probably $ 1, 500.
- 21:47Speaker 1: Under price, I would say.
- 21:48Speaker 3: So I'm going to try to be ahead of him
- 21:50Speaker 3: or ahead of the curve there, even though he is
- 21:53Speaker 3: looking at some decent ownership. I think you can get
- 21:56Speaker 3: ahead of that pretty easily because 615K, good price tag there.
- 21:59Speaker 3: And another guy that the Pistons are hoping takes a
- 22:02Speaker 3: big step forward on, bigger stuff, been talking about him
- 22:04Speaker 3: a lot, but Asara Thompson, they're going to use him
- 22:06Speaker 3: A lot more on-ball as well. Probably staggered away from Cade.
- 22:10Speaker 3: The preseason numbers were not good, though. 15% usage rate.
- 22:13Speaker 3: Did add 21% assist, 17% rebounding rate. So good numbers
- 22:17Speaker 3: across the board. But yeah, at his price, it's not
- 22:20Speaker 3: like you need 40 DK points from him. Anything above
- 22:23Speaker 3: 32 is going to be probably enough to be viable
- 22:26Speaker 3: in your lineup. So I'm good there. And then I
- 22:29Speaker 3: think the rest of the Pistons... More so sprinkles for me.
- 22:33Speaker 3: Like I said, I'm not crazy about the Paul Reed
- 22:35Speaker 3: type of play.
- 22:35Speaker 1: I think John Collins is pretty solid.
- 22:37Speaker 3: I've always liked John Collins as a player, and I
- 22:40Speaker 3: think that he's okay as a fantasy option, but I'm
- 22:43Speaker 3: not sure how much there really is to go around
- 22:45Speaker 3: there when Durant and Cade are going to take up
- 22:47Speaker 3: so much usage and rebounding opportunities.
- 22:51Speaker 1: Isaiah Joe, definitely fine to take a shot on him.
- 22:53Speaker 3: I think you want to pair him away from Duncan
- 22:55Speaker 3: Robinson if you even get any of those two guys together.
- 22:59Speaker 3: I'm not really into Dennis Jenkins. Don't really think Duncan's
- 23:02Speaker 3: that great of a player. So, yeah, it's going to
- 23:03Speaker 3: be mostly the starting five for Detroit for me.
- 23:07Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Detroit's the second worst team collectively behind
- 23:11Speaker 2: Philly in terms for Daily Fantasy. And also, yeah, like
- 23:15Speaker 2: the Durham price tag, wow, way too cheap. But half
- 23:18Speaker 2: the guys on the slate are way too cheap, over
- 23:20Speaker 2: half of the guys. Like the Isaiah Joes of the world,
- 23:23Speaker 2: the Jenkins or Herter, I mean, we just don't need
- 23:27Speaker 2: to dumpster dive that much, but it will be contrarian
- 23:29Speaker 2: if you want to do that. Like Dylan Harper should
- 23:31Speaker 2: never be 5,100. Cason Wall is 4,600. OG, 5,300. Thompson, 52. Pritchard, 54.
- 23:40Speaker 2: And you don't price the studs in the stud range.
- 23:43Speaker 2: So Isaiah Joe, it's a clear way to get different
- 23:45Speaker 2: and like get different in roster construction. But these guys
- 23:49Speaker 2: got to do something for sure. Like even if he
- 23:51Speaker 2: gets his 15 at 3,500, more than likely– Not enough,
- 23:56Speaker 2: obviously possible, but that's the one thing on the slate
- 23:58Speaker 2: for DraftKings for sure, which then makes Cade 9,500. Sure,
- 24:03Speaker 2: there's a couple other spends in a vacuum. You'd probably
- 24:05Speaker 2: rather like Tatum or Towns or Brunson, but I'd rather
- 24:09Speaker 2: get Contrarian playing a Cade up top than I would
- 24:13Speaker 2: probably an Isaiah Joe down low. Dern looks great, though.
- 24:17Speaker 2: I like everything you said about him. The usage didn't
- 24:19Speaker 2: have to talk me to that at the price tag.
- 24:22Speaker 2: the one that I guess I'm most worried about and
- 24:25Speaker 2: not even most worried, but Azur Thompson, just at ownership.
- 24:28Speaker 2: I know I prefer Harper. I prefer OG probably prefer taste.
- 24:33Speaker 2: And that's pretty close, but it's just, he's just the
- 24:35Speaker 2: one that 35%, he might even be a little higher,
- 24:38Speaker 2: but a guy that can't really shoot that still does
- 24:41Speaker 2: have K dominating the ball. And then during now with
- 24:43Speaker 2: his extended usage usage, he can get it done in
- 24:46Speaker 2: a lot of ways. But if I had to try and,
- 24:48Speaker 2: pick a guy that's going to be one of the
- 24:50Speaker 2: chalkiest on the slate. I think Thompson would be the
- 24:52Speaker 2: one I'd be fine getting under on any, uh, mentioned about, uh,
- 24:56Speaker 2: Paul Reed and Collins. I might've missed it, but mainly
- 24:58Speaker 2: at that center position, just with Paul Reed, would you
- 25:01Speaker 2: group them away from during centers? Pretty good on the slate.
- 25:05Speaker 1: Yeah, I usually don't, uh, maybe not on a three
- 25:08Speaker 1: game slate.
- 25:08Speaker 3: You could probably find routes where they both get there,
- 25:12Speaker 3: but normally it's not something that I like to do. Um,
- 25:16Speaker 3: I don't really have a huge take on Collins. I'm
- 25:18Speaker 3: not really sure what to expect from him from a
- 25:21Speaker 3: role perspective. But he does fit what they need, which
- 25:24Speaker 3: is more like a stretch athletic big.
- 25:25Speaker 1: So I'm fine with him.
- 25:28Speaker 3: But you're also kind of in that same range of
- 25:30Speaker 3: some other forwards like Asar and OG that are just
- 25:33Speaker 3: hands down much better plays.
- 25:35Speaker 2: Yep, for sure. All right, let's move on to the
- 25:37Speaker 2: second game of the slate. And again, this is the
- 25:39Speaker 2: first game on DraftKings. DraftKings is just doing these last
- 25:42Speaker 2: two games. FanDuel. Or FanDuel. What am I talking about?
- 25:46Speaker 2: All right. We got the Philadelphia 76ers and the New
- 25:50Speaker 2: York Knicks. Wardo's New York Knicks. The defending champs, the
- 25:54Speaker 2: New York Knicks. There you go, Wardo. You can get
- 25:56Speaker 2: hard from that one. But it is decent-sized favorites. I mean,
- 26:02Speaker 2: not decent. For this slate, the biggest favorites. But minus 4.5
- 26:04Speaker 2: are the Knicks. 231.5 total. One point greater than the
- 26:08Speaker 2: OKC Spurs total. Yeah. I mean, great. Great NBA game.
- 26:13Speaker 2: The NBA did phenomenal for their three games today. It's
- 26:16Speaker 2: all teams, all competitive games, everything that you want to
- 26:19Speaker 2: see to open the year. It's going to get ownership, though,
- 26:23Speaker 2: for sure on the Knicks side. Like I said, the
- 26:24Speaker 2: Knicks definitely will be chalky, but Philly will be the
- 26:27Speaker 2: lowest owned cumulative on the slate. And it makes sense
- 26:30Speaker 2: when you have all of these studs playing together for
- 26:33Speaker 2: the first time in the regular season. It's hard to
- 26:37Speaker 2: divvy up exactly how the 76ers are going to roll.
- 26:40Speaker 2: I still think it's going to be unbeaten. as the
- 26:42Speaker 2: elf on the team if one had to be, and
- 26:44Speaker 2: then Maxie, number two, playing their same pick and roll
- 26:46Speaker 2: that they've done. But, yeah, the addition to Jalen Brown, obviously,
- 26:50Speaker 2: Edgecombe in his second year, LeBron there. You never know.
- 26:54Speaker 2: You truly never know. Yeah, I'll let you break down
- 26:57Speaker 2: the game, but I am curious to hear your thoughts
- 26:59Speaker 2: on how Philly plays just most of the year. Still
- 27:02Speaker 2: a lot of pick and roll with them beating Maxie
- 27:04Speaker 2: and then find open guys and slashers, or what do
- 27:06Speaker 2: you think?
- 27:07Speaker 3: All right, it sounds like they're going to be just
- 27:09Speaker 3: doing more like more spacing, at least that's what Embiid said.
- 27:12Speaker 3: But yeah, like you said, like there's just so many
- 27:15Speaker 3: high usage guys and only one ball to go around.
- 27:17Speaker 3: So who is a guy to kind of run away
- 27:20Speaker 3: with it is the biggest question for the Sixers this season.
- 27:23Speaker 3: I do agree with you. I think that, I think
- 27:26Speaker 3: it's going to be Embiid number one, but I don't know.
- 27:29Speaker 3: We don't really know like Jalen Brown to take much
- 27:31Speaker 3: of a backseat in his career. So I wouldn't be
- 27:35Speaker 3: surprised if Maxie defers a little bit early on, if
- 27:39Speaker 3: the preseason is at all predictive of what we should expect,
- 27:43Speaker 3: then it was Embiid, Brown, Maxie, Vijay, and LeBron in
- 27:48Speaker 3: terms of the pecking order for usage. I somewhat agree
- 27:51Speaker 3: with that. Maybe Edgecombe is behind LeBron long-term this season,
- 27:55Speaker 3: but I do think LeBron is going to take a
- 27:58Speaker 3: big backseat on offense. But he's basically going to be
- 28:01Speaker 3: running the point guard role. Maxie's going to be a 1A,
- 28:04Speaker 3: 1B type of scoring option. with Embiid and Brown. I
- 28:08Speaker 3: guess 1A, 1B, 1C. And then LeBron's basically going to
- 28:11Speaker 3: be running the point guard. He had a 43% assist
- 28:13Speaker 3: percentage in the preseason.
- 28:15Speaker 1: Maxey was behind him at 33%. Yeah, but.
- 28:19Speaker 3: I think that for DFS purposes, this team is really
- 28:22Speaker 3: interesting because you have a lot of guys that, I mean,
- 28:27Speaker 3: like we said a lot of times already, these guys
- 28:30Speaker 3: are underpriced, but the Sixers in particular, these guys are
- 28:32Speaker 3: all well underpriced in terms of their historical performance fantasy
- 28:36Speaker 3: success in the past like maxi we've known to be
- 28:38Speaker 3: like a 9.5k player and bead i don't know exactly
- 28:42Speaker 3: what he capped out at last year but a guy
- 28:45Speaker 3: that can look like a 10k player at times lebron
- 28:47Speaker 3: was kind of in like the mid fives jen brown
- 28:50Speaker 3: got up to like the upper eights vj i think
- 28:52Speaker 3: he got up to like seven at one point last
- 28:54Speaker 3: year um but these guys are all going to be
- 28:56Speaker 3: really like some of the lower owned mid-tier options on
- 28:59Speaker 3: the slate and all have slate breaking upside I think
- 29:03Speaker 3: it's a little tougher to make the case for a
- 29:05Speaker 3: guy like Maxie. Um, not really going to be a
- 29:07Speaker 3: guy that I want to take an overweight stance on.
- 29:09Speaker 3: I think the matchup is fine. Not really worried about
- 29:11Speaker 3: anybody on the Knicks in particular to shut him down,
- 29:14Speaker 3: but just the usage, not looking that good in the
- 29:15Speaker 3: preseason has me a little bit worried about him. He's
- 29:18Speaker 3: also going to be losing playmaking opportunities to LeBron. So
- 29:20Speaker 3: the assist numbers might come down a little bit. I
- 29:22Speaker 3: think it's going to be the toughest for him to
- 29:24Speaker 3: pay off his price tag, especially if he's going to
- 29:26Speaker 3: be kind of relegated to more of a score first option. Um,
- 29:31Speaker 3: So it's either an around the field play for me
- 29:35Speaker 3: on Maxie or maybe even a little bit underweight.
- 29:37Speaker 1: The guy I want to get overweight on though is Embiid.
- 29:40Speaker 3: Like he's in much better shape than he ever has
- 29:42Speaker 3: been in the last couple years coming into the start
- 29:44Speaker 3: of the season uh i think he's in a pretty
- 29:46Speaker 3: good spot against cat he's done very well against cat
- 29:50Speaker 3: in the past last season averaged 54 dk points per
- 29:52Speaker 3: game they lined up against each other for 160 possessions
- 29:56Speaker 3: as well he was averaging 10.3 free throw attempts per
- 29:59Speaker 3: 75 minutes, meaning he was able to get Cat into
- 30:02Speaker 3: foul trouble, which is kind of the downside for Cat.
- 30:04Speaker 3: But yeah, I do think Embiid at 8.1K, really good
- 30:08Speaker 3: price tag and a guy that I want.
- 30:09Speaker 1: To be overweight on. Brown is kind of in the
- 30:12Speaker 1: maxi range for me.
- 30:14Speaker 3: That's the one I'm kind of like, he's one of
- 30:16Speaker 3: the tougher fades that I don't really feel comfortable about
- 30:18Speaker 3: because I do think that he could really break the
- 30:20Speaker 3: slate open in a big way at his position. But
- 30:23Speaker 3: the matchup is not good. He's going to see OG
- 30:25Speaker 3: on the other side. He did struggle against OG over
- 30:27Speaker 3: the last couple of years, only 16.3 points for 75. Yeah,
- 30:31Speaker 3: it's a fair tag, but sharing the usage with Maxi
- 30:35Speaker 3: and Embiid and then not really having the playmaking to
- 30:37Speaker 3: go along with it well with LeBron there, I don't
- 30:40Speaker 3: think I end up with a lot of him, but
- 30:41Speaker 3: that's the one that I really could come back to
- 30:42Speaker 3: at the end of the night that is going to
- 30:44Speaker 3: be the reason why I lost money. But yeah, I'll
- 30:48Speaker 3: get to a lot of LeBron here. I do like
- 30:50Speaker 3: what I saw from him in the preseason. I don't
- 30:52Speaker 3: think we're ever going to see LeBron averaging around 30
- 30:54Speaker 3: points per game for the rest of his career, but
- 30:56Speaker 3: that's not really a hot take. He's definitely more of
- 30:58Speaker 3: a pass-first option now, and I think he's okay with that.
- 31:01Speaker 3: He's definitely going to be the guy that's probably leading
- 31:04Speaker 3: the Sixers in assists this season. He had a 43%
- 31:06Speaker 3: assist percentage, like I said, in the preseason, so he's
- 31:09Speaker 3: going to be the number two option behind Embiid on
- 31:12Speaker 3: the Sixers for me tonight. And then Vijay, he's going
- 31:15Speaker 3: to be pretty easy to get overweight on just because
- 31:18Speaker 3: the point-grade shooting guard options are really strong that are
- 31:21Speaker 3: cheaper than him But, yeah, I mean, he was really
- 31:25Speaker 3: good in the preseason, 22% usage rate, so not that low.
- 31:28Speaker 2: He's a stud.
- 31:29Speaker 1: Yeah, he's a stud for sure.
- 31:30Speaker 2: And he knows it. He ain't going to worry that
- 31:33Speaker 2: he's playing with all these studs. That's what I'm thinking
- 31:36Speaker 2: about this team too. Sorry not to interrupt, but they
- 31:38Speaker 2: have enough, especially with LeBron, like just heady guys that
- 31:42Speaker 2: know the game. Like when people catch fire, like I
- 31:45Speaker 2: can see this team just trying to keep going to
- 31:47Speaker 2: them until they're not– they all know they're going to
- 31:49Speaker 2: have their times throughout the year and they want to
- 31:51Speaker 2: make each other happy. It feels like, which is appealing
- 31:54Speaker 2: on a slate like this with only three games and
- 31:56Speaker 2: looking at all these ownerships and none of their price
- 31:59Speaker 2: tags are like, wow, you can see any of them outscoring.
- 32:02Speaker 2: And there's a lot of volatility in these projections and
- 32:04Speaker 2: stuff right now without knowing how Philly is going to play.
- 32:07Speaker 2: But like, I'm not saying make a rule min one
- 32:10Speaker 2: by any means, but at ownership is ways to get different.
- 32:14Speaker 2: Like this is what I'm saying. Instead of playing Isaiah
- 32:16Speaker 2: Joe as ways to get different, I'd rather play one
- 32:18Speaker 2: of these guys. And again, if someone makes two threes early,
- 32:22Speaker 2: they're probably going to try and get them a third
- 32:24Speaker 2: one in the next couple possessions or at least an
- 32:26Speaker 2: open look. And then if the defense over-adjusts, you make
- 32:30Speaker 2: the right play. That's how I see this team going.
- 32:34Speaker 2: So that ownership on a three-game slate at these prices,
- 32:38Speaker 2: I just think naturally I'm going to have to at
- 32:40Speaker 2: least get overweight on a lot of them. I don't
- 32:42Speaker 2: want to play too many of them together.
- 32:45Speaker 1: Yeah, I would probably.
- 32:47Speaker 3: I don't want to set like a hard rule and
- 32:48Speaker 3: say max two, but it does make a little bit
- 32:51Speaker 3: of sense, at least from like Maxie and beat and
- 32:53Speaker 3: Jalen Brown, because I think those are the three guys
- 32:56Speaker 3: that will more often than not be the team and
- 32:59Speaker 3: scoring and how often they all hit together is probably pretty.
- 33:03Speaker 2: Max two sounds good. It feels like you almost need OT,
- 33:06Speaker 2: but even then like Nick's prices and other pricing on
- 33:10Speaker 2: the slate. I like that. Yeah.
- 33:13Speaker 1: Um, yeah.
- 33:14Speaker 3: Getting back to, uh, vj i guess it's kind of
- 33:17Speaker 3: just like a sixers thing overall but this is also
- 33:19Speaker 3: nick nurse led team we know that he loves to
- 33:23Speaker 3: push up his guys minutes so you might see 38
- 33:26Speaker 3: minutes from maxi and jaylen brown and edgecomb right off
- 33:28Speaker 3: the bat to give them more uh more overall upside
- 33:32Speaker 3: i think that if we had to say which guys
- 33:36Speaker 3: or which team is going to have a player that
- 33:37Speaker 3: leads the slate tonight in minutes it's definitely coming from
- 33:40Speaker 3: philly the bench unit is not that great like there's
- 33:43Speaker 3: nobody on the bench unit that's going to be at
- 33:46Speaker 3: risk of taking away minutes from anybody in the first unit.
- 33:48Speaker 3: Talking about Anthony Simons, KCP, Dean Wade, like Adem Bona
- 33:53Speaker 3: and Jabari Walker. None of these guys are going to
- 33:55Speaker 3: be eating minutes into the first unit. So you could
- 33:57Speaker 3: really see some big minutes right off the bat opening
- 34:00Speaker 3: night for Philly.
- 34:02Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm in on Edgecombe. Definitely think it's easier
- 34:05Speaker 1: to get.
- 34:05Speaker 3: Overweight on him where you're spending 3K less or 2K
- 34:08Speaker 3: less on guys like Maxie and Jalen Brown. So I'm
- 34:11Speaker 3: definitely going to be looking to that.
- 34:12Speaker 1: The preseason numbers look really good for him.
- 34:14Speaker 3: 22% usage, 28.6% assist percentage, 8.3% rebounding rate. So if
- 34:19Speaker 3: those numbers hold true or even remotely true, he's definitely
- 34:23Speaker 3: the most underpriced sixer I would say tonight.
- 34:26Speaker 2: Any take on or thoughts on these two questionable tags, Simons,
- 34:31Speaker 2: Dean Wade, and Bona?
- 34:35Speaker 3: I haven't heard much, but I think it sounded like Simons,
- 34:40Speaker 3: or I think Wade, it sounded like he was pretty
- 34:42Speaker 3: far away from returning.
- 34:43Speaker 1: Okay.
- 34:44Speaker 3: I don't know about the, about Simons or Bona yet.
- 34:47Speaker 3: So we just have to, have to.
- 34:49Speaker 2: Wait and see. Not that it really matters, but. Yeah.
- 34:52Speaker 1: I mean, who those minutes would go to?
- 34:54Speaker 3: Like, I don't know if they're not going to feel
- 34:57Speaker 3: on or like Caleb Love or these guys yet. Probably
- 34:59Speaker 3: could go to like the more veteran like players like
- 35:01Speaker 3: KCP and Justin Edwards.
- 35:03Speaker 1: So yeah, exactly.
- 35:04Speaker 3: You're not, you're not playing the guys that whoever those
- 35:07Speaker 3: minutes would go to. So it doesn't really matter too
- 35:09Speaker 3: much for the slate.
- 35:10Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 35:11Speaker 3: Heading over to the Knicks side of things. I think that,
- 35:14Speaker 3: one of the safest spots. There's a pretty predictable team.
- 35:19Speaker 3: Like we know where the fantasy points are coming from.
- 35:21Speaker 3: It's mostly going to be Kat and Brunson. And then
- 35:23Speaker 3: you have really easy price tags to get to on Hart,
- 35:26Speaker 3: McHale and OG. Uh, but if the preseason and postseason
- 35:30Speaker 3: is at all indicative of what to expect from the
- 35:32Speaker 3: Knicks this year, then it's going to be a really,
- 35:34Speaker 3: really big year for Kat. Um, highly motivated, you know,
- 35:38Speaker 3: coming into the season without a new contract, him and
- 35:40Speaker 3: Hart are, I think they're still negotiating with, uh, with
- 35:44Speaker 3: the owner trying to get a new contract done. So
- 35:46Speaker 3: he's going to come out a little angry, especially after,
- 35:49Speaker 3: you know, doing so good in the, in the post season.
- 35:52Speaker 1: But yeah, he.
- 35:53Speaker 3: Had a 30% assist percentage in the preseason and he's
- 35:57Speaker 3: coming off of a post season where he averaged eight
- 36:00Speaker 3: over eight assists per game. And I think that he
- 36:01Speaker 3: was in like the five ish range in the regular season.
- 36:05Speaker 3: So I have no doubt that in a full game
- 36:06Speaker 3: from cat, he's going to pay off his price, like
- 36:08Speaker 3: in a pretty big way and be worthy of a
- 36:10Speaker 3: GPP winning score.
- 36:12Speaker 1: But the downside is always going to be foul trouble
- 36:14Speaker 1: for him.
- 36:14Speaker 3: There was a game against Embiid last year where he
- 36:17Speaker 3: went for 48 DK points in 34 minutes. And then
- 36:19Speaker 3: in the other game, he played just 16 minutes. And
- 36:23Speaker 3: that was a game that was decided by three points.
- 36:25Speaker 3: I was looking at the box score, and he picked
- 36:27Speaker 3: up a lot of fouls in the second and third
- 36:29Speaker 3: quarter and then lost a ton of runs in the
- 36:30Speaker 3: second half.
- 36:31Speaker 1: So that's always an outcome for Cat.
- 36:34Speaker 3: It's an outcome for any big, but Cat particular is
- 36:36Speaker 3: a guy that has committed some pretty dumb fouls in
- 36:39Speaker 3: the past. But, yeah, I do– think that I want
- 36:42Speaker 3: to be around the field on him. He's coming with
- 36:44Speaker 3: a lot of ownership. I wouldn't set a maximum rule
- 36:47Speaker 3: of Kat and Embiid because there are scenarios where they
- 36:49Speaker 3: both go off, but I think in a hand build
- 36:51Speaker 3: or like a single entry, I probably am not going
- 36:53Speaker 3: to be playing those guys together. But I think in MME,
- 36:56Speaker 3: like where this is the game that goes to overtime
- 36:59Speaker 3: and we get five more minutes from each of these guys,
- 37:01Speaker 3: there's a chance that those are the two guys that
- 37:02Speaker 3: you need. And it's nice that Kat has power forward
- 37:05Speaker 3: eligibility as well. So definitely want to be around the
- 37:08Speaker 3: field or a little overweight on Kat. Same thing for Brunson.
- 37:11Speaker 3: Should see a lot of Vijay Edgecombe tonight, which could
- 37:13Speaker 3: be a matchup to exploit. Edgecombe is probably their best defender.
- 37:17Speaker 3: It's him and Jalen Brown, but I think they'll probably
- 37:18Speaker 3: put Vijay on Brunson. He had no issue with that
- 37:21Speaker 3: matchup last year, though. Top 30 real points twice in
- 37:24Speaker 3: four matchups. The Sixers were a little bit better in
- 37:26Speaker 3: pick and roll last year, but I don't think that
- 37:29Speaker 3: those numbers are truly sticky because we know that Embiid
- 37:31Speaker 3: is a guy that plays.
- 37:31Speaker 1: A ton of drop coverage.
- 37:32Speaker 3: So Brunson is going to have a lot of open
- 37:35Speaker 3: looks in that mid-range, one of the most dangerous players
- 37:37Speaker 3: in the league versus drop coverage. in on Brunson for sure,
- 37:42Speaker 3: and then the trio of Hart, McHale, and OG. I
- 37:44Speaker 3: think OG clears these guys by a pretty wide margin,
- 37:46Speaker 3: and you're not really sneaking that by anybody. He's going
- 37:48Speaker 3: to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate,
- 37:50Speaker 3: definitely the highest-owned at his position. Hart really wasn't able
- 37:55Speaker 3: to get his scoring going versus the Sixers last year.
- 37:57Speaker 3: Also comes in a little bit banged up. He's not
- 37:58Speaker 3: on the injury report, but he tweaked his ankle last week,
- 38:02Speaker 3: and then he's also dealing with a finger injury that
- 38:04Speaker 3: he'll have to.
- 38:06Speaker 1: Have surgery on once he retires.
- 38:08Speaker 3: But There's always a chance that the Sixers hide Joel
- 38:11Speaker 3: Embiid on Josh Hart, which could lead to some open
- 38:14Speaker 3: looks for him, just a matter of whether or not
- 38:16Speaker 3: he's making them, because we know that he's a guy
- 38:18Speaker 3: that can't always fill up the stat sheet.
- 38:21Speaker 1: I don't have a strong take there.
- 38:22Speaker 3: I think that he's fine at ownership, but if it
- 38:25Speaker 3: creeps up a little bit closer to Locke, I probably
- 38:28Speaker 3: wouldn't want to take a big stance there. I'd be
- 38:31Speaker 3: fine being underway to Mikael Bridges, though. I just don't
- 38:33Speaker 3: think that he's really going to be needed offensively. Apparently,
- 38:37Speaker 3: he's adding more rim scoring to his repertoire, but we'll
- 38:40Speaker 3: see how much that's actually true. We know that he's
- 38:42Speaker 3: a guy that loves that little like floater range, a
- 38:44Speaker 3: turnaround jumper. But he does have a decent matchup versus
- 38:48Speaker 3: a team that did struggle in transition last year. Should
- 38:50Speaker 3: also note that the Sixers were looking to play with
- 38:52Speaker 3: a lot of pace in the preseason. I think they
- 38:55Speaker 3: were second in pace behind the Heat. So if that
- 38:58Speaker 3: holds true, this could be the game that does pop
- 39:00Speaker 3: off in scoring. And Yeah, fine with OG. He did
- 39:04Speaker 3: struggle against Jalen Brown in the past. I think that
- 39:06Speaker 3: they're going to be guarding each other on both ends
- 39:08Speaker 3: of the court. He apparently averaged zero points per 75
- 39:11Speaker 3: last season against Jalen Brown. I'd be surprised if he
- 39:14Speaker 3: was held scoreless against him here. And he's just way
- 39:16Speaker 3: too cheap. Definitely won't be overweight on the NBA Finals hero,
- 39:20Speaker 3: OG Inanobi. And then Drummond, I think he deserves a
- 39:23Speaker 3: sprinkle in non-CAT lineups. So Max, one of those two guys.
- 39:26Speaker 3: Just hoping for foul trouble there.
- 39:28Speaker 1: Great.
- 39:30Speaker 2: Breakdown. I don't really have much more to add on
- 39:32Speaker 2: the Knicks side. It's going to be heavily owned with
- 39:34Speaker 2: the top main guys, like you can see, just all underpriced. DraftKings,
- 39:38Speaker 2: I mean, they did it with the NFL to start
- 39:40Speaker 2: the year too. And then I'm not going to say overcorrected,
- 39:43Speaker 2: but completely went the other way, which I like and
- 39:45Speaker 2: made it tighter. Hoping NBA does that because it's... Yeah,
- 39:50Speaker 2: you can play pretty much anything opening night. I do
- 39:52Speaker 2: want to mention FanDuel quick because this game is on
- 39:56Speaker 2: the FanDuel slate, the first one. FanDuel did make changes
- 39:59Speaker 2: to their NBA products. So instead of going two point guards,
- 40:03Speaker 2: two shooting guards, two small forwards, two power forwards, and
- 40:05Speaker 2: a center, they pretty much kind of copied DraftKings to
- 40:09Speaker 2: an extent. One point guard, one shooting guard, one small forward,
- 40:11Speaker 2: one power forward, one center. Then you have a guard
- 40:14Speaker 2: forward spot, a forward center spot, and two utility spots.
- 40:19Speaker 2: And on FanDuel, where you get an extra point for
- 40:22Speaker 2: blocks and steals, that's heavily weighted to centers today. So Towns,
- 40:28Speaker 2: only center. Actually, let me double check. He's only center. Yeah,
- 40:32Speaker 2: he's only center. Wemby, only center. There's Hartenstein on the slate.
- 40:37Speaker 2: There's a lot of good centers, but you will see
- 40:39Speaker 2: center take up a lot more of the utility ownership
- 40:43Speaker 2: on FanDuel than you will on DraftKings. Just majority of slates.
- 40:46Speaker 2: due to the scoring over there. So just wanted to
- 40:49Speaker 2: note on that. And it's going to be similar for
- 40:52Speaker 2: this game with ownership on FanDuel as well. The Knicks
- 40:55Speaker 2: stuff's getting a lot of the ownership and then not
- 40:57Speaker 2: much going to the 76ers. Who's starting for Boston? Rio
- 41:03Speaker 2: thinks it's going to be Mitra, but obviously him or Keita.
- 41:06Speaker 2: I got nothing else in this one. Anything else for you? Otherwise,
- 41:09Speaker 2: we will go to the last game of the night.
- 41:11Speaker 3: No, we kind of talked about it yesterday for FanDuel scoring.
- 41:15Speaker 1: But yeah, you're just going to want to jam in
- 41:17Speaker 1: centers basically every night over there.
- 41:19Speaker 2: Yep. All right. Last game. The rematch for the Western
- 41:25Speaker 2: Conference Finals. What a game we have here between the
- 41:28Speaker 2: San Antonio Spurs and the OKC Thunder. We are looking
- 41:33Speaker 2: at pretty much a coin flip. We got minus 112 Spurs,
- 41:37Speaker 2: minus 108 Thunder, 230 and a half total in this one. Um,
- 41:42Speaker 2: in terms of ownership, you can see Dylan Harper mentioned
- 41:45Speaker 2: at the top 5,100 projected to be the highest owned
- 41:49Speaker 2: on the slate. I mean, Chet 59, these prices are
- 41:52Speaker 2: just all jokes. This looks like a phenomenal game to
- 41:55Speaker 2: stack up. How do we get different in this game?
- 41:57Speaker 2: Is there any rules? And then I was curious if
- 41:59Speaker 2: you had any, like you said, you like Boston and
- 42:01Speaker 2: game one, if you had any take on the spread
- 42:03Speaker 2: or anything in the next Philly game, any thoughts on
- 42:06Speaker 2: this one?
- 42:07Speaker 1: Um, next Philly, I would probably lean the next side there.
- 42:10Speaker 3: I just think that there's too many question marks in
- 42:12Speaker 3: the Philly offense right now that I could see them
- 42:15Speaker 3: being the team that kind of falls flat on their face.
- 42:18Speaker 1: Um, as far as this game goes, I do not
- 42:21Speaker 1: have much of.
- 42:21Speaker 2: A lean here.
- 42:22Speaker 3: I mean, these are two of the top three defenses
- 42:25Speaker 3: in the league. Spurs were one of the best offenses.
- 42:28Speaker 3: OKC was not too far behind them. I think if
- 42:30Speaker 3: there was a case to make for San Antonio, it's
- 42:32Speaker 3: that they didn't really lose anybody. They added Tobias Harris,
- 42:35Speaker 3: but he's not going to be playing tonight, unfortunately. OKC
- 42:38Speaker 3: lost some pretty key rotation pieces, though. Dorit Wiggins and
- 42:41Speaker 3: Isaiah Joe all on the move. But it does look
- 42:45Speaker 3: like they struck gold once again in the draft, which
- 42:46Speaker 3: is to nobody's surprise. They got Bennett Sturtz and Adey Mara,
- 42:51Speaker 3: who look like guys that could develop into something really
- 42:54Speaker 3: special in the near future. I don't think that we're
- 42:57Speaker 3: going to see any sort of meaningful minutes off the
- 42:58Speaker 3: bat from these guys, but there's going to be times
- 43:00Speaker 3: this season where they will be heard from. We know
- 43:02Speaker 3: that OKC will do some mass rest stuff at times.
- 43:05Speaker 3: against some weaker opponents. So if you give me Mara
- 43:08Speaker 3: starting at any point in the season, like that's a
- 43:11Speaker 3: hundred percent log type of play.
- 43:13Speaker 1: I mean, he looked really, really good in the preseason.
- 43:15Speaker 2: Yeah, he did. I mean, so many highlights with him,
- 43:17Speaker 2: very efficient. Yeah. It's like the OKC is the Brewers
- 43:21Speaker 2: for baseball, even though I should say the Brewers are
- 43:23Speaker 2: OKC for, for the, for basketball, but man, they just,
- 43:27Speaker 2: they continue to develop. They continue to hit. They played
- 43:30Speaker 2: the long game. They good management up top for sure.
- 43:33Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know enough about the financial side of NBA.
- 43:38Speaker 3: I feel like it's kind of more little next MO,
- 43:40Speaker 3: but it does seem like, okay, see, in the near future,
- 43:43Speaker 3: we'll be left with some decisions to be made. And
- 43:47Speaker 3: if this Mara guy turns out to be special, like
- 43:51Speaker 3: they could move on from Chet at some point. I
- 43:53Speaker 3: think it's more likely it's going to be like Hartenstein
- 43:55Speaker 3: and Caruso next year.
- 43:56Speaker 2: It's a good problem to have. Yeah, for sure.
- 44:01Speaker 1: I'm hoping that my Jazz will be in a similar situation.
- 44:03Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
- 44:06Speaker 3: Yeah, as far as how these teams match up, I
- 44:09Speaker 3: don't think that there's really any crazy mismatches here. I
- 44:12Speaker 3: think both the teams are very strong top to bottom
- 44:14Speaker 3: defensively and offensively. So it's really just a matter of
- 44:17Speaker 3: who's better tonight. I think the main story for OKC,
- 44:20Speaker 3: aside from losing those back-end rotation pieces, is how they're
- 44:24Speaker 3: going to look with a healthy J-Dub.
- 44:25Speaker 1: I think that we all.
- 44:28Speaker 3: We don't forget about how good he was because we know,
- 44:30Speaker 3: but it's been a long time since we've seen him 100%.
- 44:33Speaker 3: So maybe people have a little bit of short-term memory.
- 44:35Speaker 3: I mean, two years ago, but all NBA, all defense.
- 44:39Speaker 3: I mean, he's one of the better players in the league.
- 44:41Speaker 3: I don't know where you put him in like ranking wise,
- 44:44Speaker 3: but he's got to be top. Top 10 or top 15, right?
- 44:49Speaker 2: I mean, I was going to initially want to say
- 44:51Speaker 2: top 10, but man, there are so many good hoopers
- 44:53Speaker 2: out there nowadays. Like 10 to 15 seems probably about right.
- 44:56Speaker 2: I'd have to look at paper though.
- 44:58Speaker 3: Yeah. So, I mean, adding him back, he looked healthy
- 45:00Speaker 3: in the preseason. I think it's going to be huge
- 45:02Speaker 3: for them. So yeah, we'll see how that looks. But yeah,
- 45:05Speaker 3: these are going to be the one and two seed
- 45:07Speaker 3: in the West. It's not a hot take by any means.
- 45:10Speaker 3: And then for the Spurs, their main story is that
- 45:13Speaker 3: we got word a couple of days ago, or maybe
- 45:15Speaker 3: a week ago, whatever it was, that they're going to
- 45:16Speaker 3: be starting Castle, Fox, and Harper together. How that's going
- 45:20Speaker 3: to look, I mean, they'll be a little bit smaller.
- 45:22Speaker 3: Harper's definitely not a small guard. Castle either. I think
- 45:24Speaker 3: they're more like 6'5, 6'6, around there. But they also
- 45:27Speaker 3: have Vassell out there, who's not a true power forward.
- 45:31Speaker 3: The three-guard lineup was not that great last season, though.
- 45:33Speaker 3: They got outscored by 26.1 points per 100 possessions in
- 45:35Speaker 3: 73 total minutes. Sample size is way too small to
- 45:41Speaker 3: say that it's predictive of how they'll look this year,
- 45:43Speaker 3: but it is informative at least. And then in the preseason,
- 45:46Speaker 3: when we did struggle shooting the ball a bit from
- 45:48Speaker 3: beyond the arc was just one for 12 from three
- 45:49Speaker 3: point range, but he did shoot 60% from the paint area.
- 45:54Speaker 3: I think that he's going to be looking to get
- 45:56Speaker 3: to the rim a lot more this year. We have
- 45:57Speaker 3: a little bit more spacing with Dylan Harper, even though
- 46:00Speaker 3: the word on him is that he's not that great
- 46:02Speaker 3: of a shooter, but I'll get to that in a second.
- 46:05Speaker 1: He looked a lot better in the preseason there.
- 46:07Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 46:07Speaker 1: For okay.
- 46:08Speaker 3: See, Shea at 10.2K was really good on the offensive
- 46:13Speaker 3: end of the preseason, which is not a surprise at all.
- 46:15Speaker 1: But he did have a shockingly low 18.6% usage rate.
- 46:18Speaker 3: There was just kind of catching up on some news,
- 46:22Speaker 3: but a little bit of talk from teammates and coaches
- 46:24Speaker 3: around OKC about how they plan to handle Shea's usage
- 46:30Speaker 3: and energy on the offensive end. They're going to have
- 46:32Speaker 3: guys taking the ball up a little bit more. It's
- 46:34Speaker 3: very easy to do that with a guy like Jalen
- 46:35Speaker 3: Williamson in the lineup. AJ Mitchell, obviously, a guy that
- 46:38Speaker 3: can handle a case of Wallace as well. and then
- 46:40Speaker 3: Jared McCain off the bench.
- 46:41Speaker 1: So there's a chance that the usage comes down a
- 46:44Speaker 1: little bit this season.
- 46:45Speaker 3: Not sure if that actually comes to fruition because when
- 46:47Speaker 3: push comes to shove, you want the ball in your
- 46:49Speaker 3: best player's hand, especially in a close matchup like this.
- 46:52Speaker 3: But either way, it's going to run into a little
- 46:53Speaker 3: bit of a tougher matchup. Oh, a really tough matchup
- 46:55Speaker 3: with Stephon Kass on the other end. Shea averaged 29.5
- 46:58Speaker 3: points per game, 4.5 rebounds per game, 5.5 assists per
- 47:01Speaker 3: game in just under 46 DK points per game. And
- 47:03Speaker 3: then the postseason, A little bit less points, but more assists.
- 47:11Speaker 3: Went slightly up in drafting points per game as well,
- 47:13Speaker 3: around like 48 DK points per game.
- 47:16Speaker 1: So all in all, pretty strong play. I think I'm
- 47:18Speaker 1: probably signing with Cade at a spend-up option in the
- 47:21Speaker 1: summer position, and then definitely Tatum and Wemby, I think,
- 47:24Speaker 1: are better overall plays than Shea, but ownership kind of
- 47:27Speaker 1: reflects that as well. And then with the Spurs charting
- 47:31Speaker 1: out just an overall smaller lineup, I do think that
- 47:34Speaker 1: helps the outlook of Jalen Williams a lot more coming
- 47:36Speaker 1: into the season. 100% healthy.
- 47:38Speaker 3: He's said that He's been pretty much away from the
- 47:41Speaker 3: hamstring injury since June, so he looks like he's good
- 47:45Speaker 3: to go. Second on the team in usage in the preseason, 27%.
- 47:47Speaker 3: I really love Spock for him. I think I'm going
- 47:50Speaker 3: to take a pretty heavy overweight stance on Jalen Williams
- 47:52Speaker 3: at 6.6K. Yeah, you got a little bit of sticker
- 47:56Speaker 3: shock on Chet at 5.9K. I mean, he's been terrible
- 47:59Speaker 3: in the match.
- 47:59Speaker 1: If you don't need me to tell you that.
- 48:01Speaker 3: The numbers say that as well, but just for reference,
- 48:04Speaker 3: he averaged just 13.5 points per 75 against Wemby. Over
- 48:08Speaker 3: the last three seasons, 52% true shooting percentage, not great.
- 48:12Speaker 3: But even a bad game from him could be something
- 48:14Speaker 3: like 12 to 14 points, maybe double-digit rebounds, handful of
- 48:18Speaker 3: assists in stocks, and that could be plenty enough to
- 48:20Speaker 3: pay off a 5.9K price tag. So definitely not a
- 48:23Speaker 3: guy I'm really looking to take an underweight stance on.
- 48:26Speaker 3: I think it's more around field, if anything, slightly over.
- 48:30Speaker 3: And then hard center 4.9K is kind of the center
- 48:33Speaker 3: that unlocks everything on the slate. Don't really think that
- 48:37Speaker 3: he's great from a permanent standpoint. He was okay against
- 48:40Speaker 3: the Thunder– sorry, the Spurs in the regular season, preseason,
- 48:45Speaker 3: postseason last year.
- 48:46Speaker 1: So, yeah, I don't really have a strong take there.
- 48:48Speaker 1: I am just.
- 48:51Speaker 2: Fine with him.
- 48:51Speaker 3: Like, if you can find ways to get away from him,
- 48:53Speaker 3: I think that's smart. But I don't think you need
- 48:56Speaker 3: to by any means.
- 48:57Speaker 2: There were some games that his minutes– I'm just looking
- 49:01Speaker 2: at how many minutes he played against the Spurs, 12
- 49:03Speaker 2: in game one, 27, 21, 17, 30, 16, 20. I
- 49:04Speaker 2: take it in those matchups they went smaller? I have
- 49:06Speaker 2: to double check the rotations, but probably. I take it
- 49:10Speaker 2: in those matchups they went smaller?
- 49:13Speaker 3: I'd have to double-check the rotations, but probably– yeah, I'd
- 49:21Speaker 3: have to double-check. They probably moved Chet up to the
- 49:23Speaker 3: five and then went with like a– yeah, because they
- 49:26Speaker 3: probably went Caruso a lot in that series.
- 49:28Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that– and A.J. Mitchell started balling in
- 49:31Speaker 2: that series too and got extended run.
- 49:35Speaker 3: Yeah, so I guess– for Hardenstein, like it's not a
- 49:37Speaker 3: matter of Jalen Williams taking his minutes. It'd be one
- 49:40Speaker 3: of those other guys. So there might be, uh, some
- 49:42Speaker 3: correlation there. If you want to be like a max
- 49:44Speaker 3: one of Hardenstein Caruso, um, maybe even AJ Mitchell throwing
- 49:52Speaker 3: them in there might make a little bit of sense.
- 49:53Speaker 3: Like the overall combinatorial ownership is going to be really
- 49:57Speaker 3: low on those three guys. So just exiting it out
- 49:59Speaker 3: entirely might make a little bit of sense. Uh, and the, uh,
- 50:03Speaker 3: case was coming off of the, uh, The preseason, or
- 50:07Speaker 3: the offseason signing got the five-year, $ 139 million rookie-scale contract
- 50:11Speaker 3: with Dort now in Atlanta. I think Wallace has a
- 50:14Speaker 3: pretty clear runway to a starting job in the backcourt
- 50:17Speaker 3: alongside SGA. We should expect them to start alongside of
- 50:20Speaker 3: each other. Really not a great matchup, and Wallace didn't
- 50:23Speaker 3: have that impressive of a role in the preseason, so
- 50:25Speaker 3: you can make the case to get away from a
- 50:26Speaker 3: guy that's going to be.
- 50:27Speaker 1: Fairly chalky tonight.
- 50:28Speaker 3: But starting role at 4.6K, shooting guard, small forward, generally
- 50:33Speaker 3: pretty weak positions on slates, on I'm more so fine
- 50:37Speaker 3: eating that chalk, even if the matchup and the role
- 50:39Speaker 3: doesn't look that great for Wallace. He's just a really,
- 50:41Speaker 3: really good player. I think we could take some shots
- 50:44Speaker 3: on McCain. The usage was really good for him. He
- 50:47Speaker 3: gets on the court, he gets hot, could pay off
- 50:48Speaker 3: the price in a really big way, really, really quickly.
- 50:51Speaker 3: So fine with McCain at 4.3K. I think that covers
- 50:56Speaker 3: everything for OKC, unless you have anything else.
- 50:57Speaker 2: To add there. Did you mention any A.J. Mitchell? I mean,
- 51:01Speaker 2: he's priced right around Pritchard, Harper, O.G., all these guys.
- 51:04Speaker 2: But dude's a hooper, also another guy that can come in,
- 51:07Speaker 2: can get hot. And, I mean, they trusted him in
- 51:10Speaker 2: the playoffs in the Western Conference Finals. Like, if he
- 51:13Speaker 2: gets hot or he does– he's playing well. I could
- 51:16Speaker 2: totally see him closing this game even. He's a guy
- 51:19Speaker 2: I'm bullish on. And the price is almost too high
- 51:22Speaker 2: relative to this slate, but that almost makes him more
- 51:24Speaker 2: appealing when we're finding ways to get different.
- 51:27Speaker 3: Yeah, you kind of get double the leverage playing a
- 51:29Speaker 3: guy like AJ Mitchell because I don't think that you
- 51:31Speaker 3: should be pairing him with Harnstein after everything that you
- 51:33Speaker 3: said with the kind of fluctuation in minutes for Harnstein
- 51:36Speaker 3: that likely comes at the expense of AJ Mitchell.
- 51:39Speaker 1: And then also, I mean, you.
- 51:41Speaker 3: Could hypothetically play AJ with Pritchard and Dylan Harper, but
- 51:47Speaker 3: I think the best way to play him would be
- 51:48Speaker 3: away from one of those guys and just hope that
- 51:51Speaker 3: he outscores them straight up. I'd have to look how
- 51:54Speaker 3: those lineups even look with all three of them, but
- 51:57Speaker 3: To me, theoretically, just game three-wise, that makes a little
- 51:59Speaker 3: bit of sense to get A.J.
- 52:02Speaker 1: Away from one of those three. I don't know if
- 52:04Speaker 1: you got that. We could do that on the hand
- 52:05Speaker 1: builder and see how those lineups look.
- 52:07Speaker 2: Yeah, let me go over quick and do that. I
- 52:11Speaker 2: was doing that on my own. Let me share quick. Yeah,
- 52:16Speaker 2: the other– Jared McCain was the only other. Like you mentioned,
- 52:19Speaker 2: I'm totally in agreement. Instead of playing A.J. Mitchell– or
- 52:22Speaker 2: not A.J. Mitchell. Instead of playing– Isaiah Joe or any
- 52:25Speaker 2: of those guys. Give me a guy that I know
- 52:27Speaker 2: that can come in, Will Chuck, and has opportunity to
- 52:30Speaker 2: extend minutes. Which Isaiah Joe, I guess, can too. He
- 52:33Speaker 2: can make threes. But I feel better about Jared McCain.
- 52:35Speaker 2: So let's just optimize quick. Harper, Thompson, OG. So three
- 52:43Speaker 2: guys right in that same price range. We're going to
- 52:45Speaker 2: go Pritchard. We're going to go Harper. And we're going
- 52:50Speaker 2: to go... Mitchell.
- 52:54Speaker 1: AJ Mitchell.
- 52:55Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks. So 278, what was the, I forget what
- 53:00Speaker 2: projection the top one is. Wait, hold on. So it's
- 53:04Speaker 2: right here, 278 because, let's see, Mitchell, Harper, and Pritchard.
- 53:21Speaker 2: That's what I have to do. I have to hit
- 53:22Speaker 2: the lock button. So he already gave up a decent bit.
- 53:27Speaker 2: I think the best way, like you said, is probably
- 53:29Speaker 2: to– and again, I wouldn't necessarily make the rule, but
- 53:34Speaker 2: I think the appeal to A.J. Mitchell is mainly to
- 53:38Speaker 2: hope he outscores one of these guys. But more than likely,
- 53:41Speaker 2: it's probably let's save the 300 and get a little
- 53:44Speaker 2: different that way from Pritchard. Harder to go right from
- 53:47Speaker 2: Harper to Mitchell– and give up seven points. But, I mean,
- 53:51Speaker 2: you can for sure do it in flagship large field
- 53:54Speaker 2: stuff on a three-game slate. It's just NBA projection means more. Obviously,
- 53:59Speaker 2: like we said, from the top end, NFL due to
- 54:02Speaker 2: more possessions, easier to predict usage and all of that
- 54:06Speaker 2: stuff where a lot of touchdown dependency on DraftKings and stuff. Yeah,
- 54:12Speaker 2: anything you wanted to mention to close any of this out?
- 54:15Speaker 2: That was all three games. Again, FanDuel only has two games.
- 54:18Speaker 2: We haven't done the Spurs side yet. Oh, there we go.
- 54:21Speaker 2: My bad. Let's hop back over to Sabresim and swap
- 54:24Speaker 2: over to these pretty chalky Spurs. Yeah, take it away.
- 54:29Speaker 3: Yeah, so for Wemby, I don't think it really matters
- 54:32Speaker 3: too much who they put on him because he's been
- 54:34Speaker 3: great against both of Hardside and Chet in the head-to-head matchups.
- 54:38Speaker 3: I had to double-check, but I think he was around
- 54:40Speaker 3: like 34 to 36 points per 75 against each of
- 54:43Speaker 3: those two guys. The Downside for Wemby is if they're
- 54:47Speaker 3: going to ease him in minutes-wise like they did last year,
- 54:50Speaker 3: he didn't top 28 minutes in any of the five
- 54:53Speaker 3: regular season games against the Thunder last year and was
- 54:55Speaker 3: held below 48 DK points in every game. Preseason was
- 54:58Speaker 3: obviously a much different story, but there was a couple
- 55:00Speaker 3: games where he's in the upper 30s, top 55 DK
- 55:03Speaker 3: points in four out of seven, but then held below
- 55:06Speaker 3: 42 DK.
- 55:07Speaker 1: Points in the other three.
- 55:08Speaker 3: I think they probably go close to full here, like
- 55:12Speaker 3: maybe 32, 33 points. Because what I would say for 1B,
- 55:16Speaker 3: do you have any take on the minutes for 1B?
- 55:19Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you're probably right, right around there. I
- 55:21Speaker 2: would be surprised to see 36, 37-plus even opening night.
- 55:26Speaker 2: I think you're pretty accurate in your statement.
- 55:29Speaker 3: Yeah, this game does– or I guess Boston has a
- 55:31Speaker 3: closer spread.
- 55:34Speaker 2: No, this is– no, the Sabresims got it very bullish
- 55:37Speaker 2: on the OKC. This is a straight minus 112, minus 108.
- 55:40Speaker 2: This is the closest on the slate. Oh, okay.
- 55:42Speaker 3: So– Yeah, if it's a situation where this is the
- 55:48Speaker 3: game that goes overtime, which has the highest likelihood based
- 55:51Speaker 3: off the spread, then five extra minutes from Wemby is
- 55:54Speaker 3: huge because it's a guy that can get around two
- 55:57Speaker 3: DK points per minute at times. I know maybe he's
- 56:02Speaker 3: best played in a game stack. I don't know if
- 56:06Speaker 3: I want to force that, but it does hypothetically make
- 56:09Speaker 3: some sense more than just playing him as a one-off,
- 56:13Speaker 3: but Yeah, I mean, we're going to see him above
- 56:16Speaker 3: 11K at some point this season, probably close to like 12K,
- 56:18Speaker 3: I'd imagine.
- 56:19Speaker 2: Just that good of a permanent loser. Again, FanDuel way more,
- 56:23Speaker 2: even though he's 11-3, he's the nut on FanDuel in
- 56:27Speaker 2: terms of scoring and pretty easy to fit. So you'll
- 56:30Speaker 2: see a lot higher ownership on FanDuel than you will DraftKings.
- 56:33Speaker 2: And then the addition to one less game on only
- 56:36Speaker 2: a three-game slate to two games, it obviously makes a
- 56:39Speaker 2: lot of sense that way.
- 56:40Speaker 3: Yeah. Castle, his outlook is kind of similar to Carl
- 56:44Speaker 3: Anthony Towns in the sense that his matchup, his defensive
- 56:47Speaker 3: assignment is going to bring a ton of foul risk.
- 56:49Speaker 3: We know the SGA really good at drawing fouls. He
- 56:52Speaker 3: was really good from a scoring perspective against OKC last year,
- 56:55Speaker 3: averaged just under 20 points per game on 55% from
- 56:58Speaker 3: the field, 43% from the three-point line, a lot worse
- 57:01Speaker 3: in the playoffs. I think he shot like 20% from
- 57:03Speaker 3: the three-point line, but overall it looks like he's improving
- 57:06Speaker 3: in that category. I think there's definitely a little bit
- 57:08Speaker 3: more downside for him here than some of his teammates
- 57:12Speaker 3: like Fox and Harper who are cheaper, but overall, I
- 57:15Speaker 3: do think that he's got the best upside out of.
- 57:18Speaker 1: One beyond the Spurs.
- 57:19Speaker 3: And that's not really too much of a hot take
- 57:21Speaker 3: the ceiling that we have on him, I believe is
- 57:24Speaker 3: as higher.
- 57:24Speaker 1: If I can double check on the stone.
- 57:30Speaker 3: Yeah, he's only three points better than Fox and three
- 57:35Speaker 3: or five better than Harper, but regardless, the point remains,
- 57:39Speaker 3: he's definitely a guy that can fill the statute there.
- 57:41Speaker 3: So I'm, Probably underweight Castle, just don't really think that
- 57:45Speaker 3: the likelihood of him paying off the price tag is
- 57:46Speaker 3: very high tonight. I'd much rather get down to, I mean,
- 57:50Speaker 3: I don't really love Fox here either because I think
- 57:52Speaker 3: that he's the guy that could take a pretty big
- 57:54Speaker 3: step back from a usage standpoint, if I had to guess.
- 57:57Speaker 3: Probably look in a situation where, you know, come clutch time,
- 58:01Speaker 3: he's going to be a guy that they're leaning on.
- 58:02Speaker 3: But for three and a half quarters, I'd expect it
- 58:05Speaker 3: to be a lot of Wemby Harper and Castle. And
- 58:07Speaker 3: the preseason usage kind of says that as well, just
- 58:10Speaker 3: 15% in the preseason for Fox. So not a guy
- 58:12Speaker 3: I'm super excited about. And then Harper at 5.1K. I mean,
- 58:16Speaker 3: him starting and it also looks like he got much
- 58:20Speaker 3: better as a jump shooter. He shot 57% from three
- 58:23Speaker 3: in the preseason, which was kind of his main downside
- 58:28Speaker 3: as a player, even though he's great everywhere else, was
- 58:31Speaker 3: he's not a great three-point shooter. If you figure that
- 58:33Speaker 3: out and he becomes like a 37%, 38% three-point shooter,
- 58:35Speaker 3: then I mean, the sky's the limit for him. There's
- 58:40Speaker 3: a guy that is kind of regarded as, like, a
- 58:42Speaker 3: potential MVP-like candidate down the line. I mean, he's just
- 58:46Speaker 3: an absolute stud, and you're not going to get– you're
- 58:48Speaker 3: not going to stick that by anybody. But for me, like,
- 58:51Speaker 3: this is a potential 100% in my portfolio type of
- 58:55Speaker 3: play tonight. I just really think that he's that good
- 58:57Speaker 3: of a play at 5.1K. I'd expect him to be–
- 58:59Speaker 3: assuming everything goes well with those three guards starting, I'd
- 59:04Speaker 3: assume he's in, the mid-6s to low 7K.
- 59:08Speaker 1: Range at some point this season. He's just that good
- 59:10Speaker 1: of a talent.
- 59:11Speaker 3: So I feel pretty confident about him as a play tonight.
- 59:17Speaker 3: As for the secondary options, Vassell, Keldon, Champagny, all guys
- 59:21Speaker 3: that could be considered. I think Vassell is way too overpriced.
- 59:24Speaker 3: We talk about guys that have been underpriced in the slate.
- 59:27Speaker 3: He's a guy that is overpriced. he's just not going to,
- 59:30Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to add enough. You really
- 59:32Speaker 3: need them to score like 25 to 30 real points.
- 59:35Speaker 3: Cause I just don't think that the rebounding assist numbers
- 59:37Speaker 3: would really be there for him. So not a bet
- 59:39Speaker 3: I'm willing to make here, but Kelton and Champagny at
- 59:41Speaker 3: their prices are fine. I'd probably leave Champagny cause I
- 59:44Speaker 3: think they does match a much better here. We saw
- 59:45Speaker 3: him have some really big games against OKC last year
- 59:48Speaker 3: in the post season. So I'm probably be a guy
- 59:51Speaker 3: that I'm mixing in the handful. But like I said,
- 59:53Speaker 3: I want to want to kind of make sure my
- 59:56Speaker 3: portfolio is just kind of most of the guys are
- 59:59Speaker 3: going to be playing 30-plus minutes a night, so I
- 1:00:01Speaker 3: think it's pretty easy to jam them in.
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I mean, Harper's by far the best
- 1:00:07Speaker 2: play on the slate. For me, that would be Wemby
- 1:00:09Speaker 2: on the Spurs side, showing below 20%, and then it
- 1:00:13Speaker 2: would be Castle is how I see it. Are you
- 1:00:16Speaker 2: playing one unique tonight? On a three-game slate, I would
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: recommend probably playing one unique. Assuming you're 150ing the lower,
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: the less teams you play, 20 teams you can probably
- 1:00:26Speaker 2: get away with two. To diversify a little more. Someone
- 1:00:32Speaker 2: wanted us to make our picks, who's going to win
- 1:00:36Speaker 2: each game. I'm going Boston with my man Rio. I'm
- 1:00:40Speaker 2: going to go Philly against Rio, though, and then I'm
- 1:00:43Speaker 2: going to go the Spurs to round it out tonight.
- 1:00:46Speaker 2: What do you got?
- 1:00:49Speaker 3: I'll go the same, but I'm going to go Knicks
- 1:00:51Speaker 3: over Philly.
- 1:00:52Speaker 2: Sounds good. I don't got too much more to add.
- 1:00:55Speaker 2: Now we're talking this three-game slate. Again, late swap definitely
- 1:00:58Speaker 2: very important with staggered start times. More information that is
- 1:01:02Speaker 2: known in terms of ownership and projection, obviously, you should
- 1:01:05Speaker 2: use to your benefits. Again, over at Shippenation.com. So many
- 1:01:09Speaker 2: sports going on right now. NFL is going on, college, NBA,
- 1:01:12Speaker 2: PGA still is, MLB playoffs, World Series, MMA, NASCAR, NHL.
- 1:01:17Speaker 2: You literally cannot get a better time in the sports world.
- 1:01:20Speaker 2: No better time to join. Our prices don't go up
- 1:01:22Speaker 2: even because... All of our sports are going on. Five
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: days for $ 19. If you want to give us a try,
- 1:01:28Speaker 2: definitely a great time to do so. Otherwise, monthly and
- 1:01:31Speaker 2: then annual. The longer you're with us, the lower the
- 1:01:33Speaker 2: price gets. You can see what you get from core
- 1:01:36Speaker 2: to starter, which is a lot. You get 400 more
- 1:01:38Speaker 2: lineups to build, lead a late swap like I just
- 1:01:40Speaker 2: talked about. Portfolio diversification, which Rio just mentioned. Then, yeah,
- 1:01:45Speaker 2: projections and ownership from SaberSim to get a second set
- 1:01:48Speaker 2: to average it out. Ultimate, if you're playing... Thousands of dollars.
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: I do think the contest sims is something you should
- 1:01:55Speaker 2: highly consider. You get a DFS mastermind for free with
- 1:01:58Speaker 2: any of those as well. Content only. If you just
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: want projections, you can see that as well. Single sport NBA.
- 1:02:04Speaker 2: Less than a dollar a day. We would love to
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: have you. And definitely do join the Discord if you
- 1:02:10Speaker 2: join any of those packages with us. A big piece
- 1:02:14Speaker 2: of our product over here at Chippin Nation. An NBA
- 1:02:16Speaker 2: with a lot of moving parts. Being in the Discord
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: is very big. Rio, any final thoughts before we get
- 1:02:22Speaker 2: on out of here?
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: Uh, no, not really. If you got any, uh, any
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: predictions for the season.
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: Any predictions for the season, let's, uh, let's pull up
- 1:02:32Speaker 2: the futures market. Cause I don't want to just say like, uh,
- 1:02:35Speaker 2: I mean, it's always a number that we're betting here.
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: So let me pull it up. Um, I will say
- 1:02:41Speaker 2: one of the sharpest, I was telling you this one,
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: the sharpest individuals in the poker room when it comes
- 1:02:46Speaker 2: to sports betting is, uh, hammering the Utah jazz over
- 1:02:50Speaker 2: wins this year. So, and I know when we talked,
- 1:02:53Speaker 2: you thought, and again, I'm not real is not by,
- 1:02:56Speaker 2: so I won't say take it with a grain of salt.
- 1:02:57Speaker 2: I know it is his Utah team, but I mean,
- 1:03:00Speaker 2: they're deep. They got a lot of young talents. I
- 1:03:02Speaker 2: don't mind that one, one bits for the over wins there. Any,
- 1:03:07Speaker 2: anything for you while I pull up some of these
- 1:03:08Speaker 2: futures so I can, I can get a better idea
- 1:03:12Speaker 2: for the number.
- 1:03:13Speaker 3: Yeah, I definitely agree with your– I don't know if
- 1:03:16Speaker 3: he's– you know him personally, but the guy that's betting
- 1:03:19Speaker 3: the Utah over, I do think that they're going to
- 1:03:21Speaker 3: be a lot more competitive this year. And I think
- 1:03:24Speaker 3: they're on the slate tomorrow. We'll talk about them. But
- 1:03:26Speaker 3: a little bit of a different outlook for them just
- 1:03:29Speaker 3: in terms of how they're going to be playing the games.
- 1:03:30Speaker 2: But, yeah, I like that.
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: I was much more bullish when I said top six
- 1:03:34Speaker 1: in the West.
- 1:03:34Speaker 3: I think top seven is probably the high end for
- 1:03:37Speaker 3: them after looking through things. But, yeah, my– I guess
- 1:03:41Speaker 3: it's like a– I don't know if it's really a
- 1:03:42Speaker 3: dark horse prediction, but I'm going to go with the
- 1:03:44Speaker 3: Timberwolves to win the championship this year. And I got
- 1:03:47Speaker 3: the Pacers coming out of the East.
- 1:03:49Speaker 2: That is– oh, Pacers coming out of the East. Okay.
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: East is loaded this year. Absolutely loaded.
- 1:03:54Speaker 2: Yeah, it is. My team that I was going– same
- 1:03:57Speaker 2: odds as you at plus 2,500. I'm going the Raptors.
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: And I know it's been– you said the Raptors have
- 1:04:05Speaker 2: overachieved and you haven't liked them almost every year these
- 1:04:08Speaker 2: past couple. But, yeah, the addition to Kawhi Leonard– and
- 1:04:11Speaker 2: what he did in the preseason, his efficiency. So he
- 1:04:14Speaker 2: can stay healthy. Scotty Barnes, Kawhi, RJ, and there's some long,
- 1:04:18Speaker 2: long bodies to play against there. Yeah, I like that one.
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: I like them. And then, yeah, that's the main one
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: that really stands out. Same one as the Timberwolves, plus 2,500.
- 1:04:31Speaker 2: Don't mind that either. Yeah, that's all I got, though.
- 1:04:34Speaker 2: Any other final thoughts?
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: Nothing. I think we're good.
- 1:04:38Speaker 3: Yeah, NBA, they got the relegation zone now, so we're
- 1:04:41Speaker 3: going to see. It's going to be different than every
- 1:04:43Speaker 3: year we've ever seen in terms of once we get
- 1:04:46Speaker 3: to the March range of games, it's going to be
- 1:04:49Speaker 3: a lot different.
- 1:04:50Speaker 2: Good. That's what I like to hear. Do us a favor,
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- 1:05:24Speaker 2: for opening night. Good luck in your contest for real
- 1:05:27Speaker 2: on Titletown. Good luck. Be safe. Peace.