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The Soft Landing Playbook: Navigating the Fed’s Neutral Pivot · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning , market movers !
• 0:02
  It is 6 am on Sunday , September 20th , 2026 , here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:08
  You are listening to Spy Trader , and I am your host , Penny Profits .
• 0:13
  We have got an incredibly pivotal week ahead of us as we enter the final full week of September .
• 0:18
  The big theme right now is the soft landing narrative .
• 0:22
  Everyone is trying to balance cooling inflation against a labor market that is slowing down but still showing some resilience .
• 0:30
  Last week , the Federal Open Market Committee concluded their meeting with that widely anticipated 25basis point rate cut .
• 0:38
  This has moved the federal funds rate into what experts call a neutral range .
• 0:43
  Because of this , the bond market is sending some interesting signals .
• 0:47
  We have seen increased volume in the iShares 20 plus Year Treasury Bond ETF , known as TLT , as yields begin to stabilize .
• 0:58
  If the upcoming economic data shows the economy is cooling further , TLT might continue its climb as investors try to lock in those yields .
• 1:07
  One big thing to watch is the 10year Treasury yield .
• 1:10
  If it stays below 3.8 percent , growthoriented funds like the Invesco QQQ Trust are likely to perform very well .
• 1:19
  Looking at specific sectors , we are seeing a bit of a rotation .
• 1:23
  Investors are moving money out of the giant tech names and into cyclical or value sectors .
• 1:30
  While NVIDIA continues to be a powerhouse in AI infrastructure , some investors are taking profits from the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLK , because they are waiting to see the next big catalyst for AI software margins .
• 1:45
  Meanwhile , the energy sector is having a moment .
• 1:48
  Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude prices up , leading the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund and stocks like Exxon Mobil to trade near 52week highs .
• 2:00
  Real estate is also making a recovery as interest rates drop .
• 2:04
  The Vanguard Real Estate ETF , or VNQ , is benefiting from lower borrowing costs , which is great news for commercial companies like Prologis .
• 2:15
  This week is packed with highimpact reports that will set the market's direction .
• 2:20
  On Tuesday , September 22nd , we get the Consumer Confidence report .
• 2:25
  This is a major test for the soft landing theory .
• 2:29
  If the reading is strong , it supports the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , VTI , showing that consumers are still the backbone of the economy .
• 2:38
  On Thursday , we will see the Weekly Jobless Claims .
• 2:42
  Investors are very sensitive to any cracks in the labor market right now , so a big spike there could lead to a selloff in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust , or SPY , as recession fears might pop back up .
• 2:56
  Finally , Friday brings the Core PCE Price Index .
• 3:00
  This is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge .
• 3:04
  If we see an increase of 0.2 percent or less , expect a rally in smallcap stocks through the iShares Russell 2000 ETF , IWM .
• 3:14
  We also have some major earnings calls to watch .
• 3:17
  Micron Technology reports on Wednesday .
• 3:19
  They are a bellwether for the semiconductor industry , and their guidance will directly impact NVIDIA and the broader S&P 500 via the VOO ETF .
• 3:31
  On Thursday , Costco Wholesale reports their earnings .
• 3:34
  This will give us a temperature check on highend consumers and could be a bullish signal for the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund , XLP .
• 3:44
  Also , keep an eye on Apple following their latest AI hardware rollout .
• 3:49
  Any news on preorder data will definitely move the QQQ .
• 3:53
  Now for some concrete recommendations for the week .
• 3:56
  If you are a growthoriented investor , focus on the Invesco QQQ Trust or the XLK .
• 4:03
  If the inflation data on Friday is soft , these growth stocks will lead the rally .
• 4:08
  A specific pick here would be Microsoft because they are successfully integrating AI across their enterprise suite , providing more stable earnings than some hardware companies .
• 4:19
  For defensive or incomefocused investors , look at the Vanguard Real Estate ETF , VNQ .
• 4:26
  Real estate historically does great during the first year of a Fed easing cycle .
• 4:32
  A great example is Realty Income , which offers a reliable monthly dividend .
• 4:37
  Finally , for those looking to diversify or hedge , consider the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF , VXUS , or even Gold via GLD .
• 4:48
  As interest rates fall , the U.S.
• 4:51
  Dollar might weaken , making international stocks more attractive .
• 4:55
  My final protip : if you are a longterm investor , the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF , VOO , remains the most efficient way to capture the upside of a soft landing while avoiding sector volatility .
• 5:09
  Avoid chasing the hype in smallcap tech this week and stick to established leaders like Alphabet or Amazon until the labor data stabilizes .
• 5:18
  That is all for this morning's update .
• 5:21
  Stay savvy out there , and I will see you back here in a few hours !