Latest / FDD Morning Brief / The impact of the Mecca pact | feat. Steven Cook

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The impact of the Mecca pact | feat. Steven Cook · FDD Morning Brief

0:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning.
0:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It's Monday, August 10th.
0:14
[SPEAKER_00]: The multi-front war of the Middle East is now 1,000 and 38 days old.
0:19
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm your host, Jonathan Chanzer.
0:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the FTD Morning Brief.
0:24
[SPEAKER_00]: U.S. President Donald Trump says he is now low-keying.
0:27
[SPEAKER_00]: the war with Iran and only semi-negotiating with the regime, because he thinks the Iranian economy is set to implode.
0:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure I understand the strategy or the terminology here, but this is all according to Israeli journalist Barack Avid who talks to the U.S. President.
0:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
0:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Probably more than I talk to my mother.
0:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Anyway, he spoke to U.S. President Donald Trump after the regime dug in with new tough terms for opening the state of Hormus to be clear an economic war if wage properly by the United States can absolutely tank the Iranian economy.
1:01
[SPEAKER_00]: In many ways it already has, but the question nobody seems to be able to answer right now.
1:06
[SPEAKER_00]: At what point will the cratering of the Iranian economy also crater the regime?
1:11
[SPEAKER_00]: There is no way to accurately gauge this people and in the meantime, the regime can continue to fire drones and missiles all over the Middle East, forcing America and its allies to spend down munitions that we can't afford to burn.
1:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Plus, the regime and the Houthis maintain the ability to shut down crucial maritime choke points that can heat more strain on the oil economy.
1:31
[SPEAKER_00]: So while I get how low-keying this war can play out positively for Donald Trump, it can also play out, rather poorly, nothing like a little added uncertainty as we head into a new week of this war that looks remarkably similar to all the others.
1:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The media is a buzz right now, with reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected a plan by the Board of Peace to broker the end of Hamas rule in Gaza.
1:58
[SPEAKER_00]: The plan calls for confidence building steps on both sides, except from BB's perspective, there can be no building of confidence within a runback terror group like Hamas.
2:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Sure, the media is making a big deal about BB saying no to Trump, and that's no small matter.
2:14
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think they're missing the big picture, and that is that BB never wanted a deal.
2:18
[SPEAKER_00]: He wants a victory, a military victory.
2:21
[SPEAKER_00]: Admittedly, if the board of peace plan is executed faithfully by Hamas, it's quite possible that BB would get his victory.
2:28
[SPEAKER_00]: But the idea of Hamas faithfully executing on a plan that guarantees its own demise.
2:33
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that just doesn't seem feasible, and that probably explains why BBS dug in his heels.
2:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Going back years, the longest serving prime minister in Israel's history has been consistently skeptical of negotiating deals with Israel's enemies.
2:47
[SPEAKER_00]: He took a dim view of the Oslo process from day one, and the events that followed made him look precious, at least that's what they say on the Israeli right.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: There's another school of thought though, namely that this Board of Peace deal is the only way to get the international community to support a process that dismantles Hamas is this an act of defiance that is a home run for baby or swinging a miss more on that in October when Israelis go to the polls.
3:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Now for your headlines, headline one, the IDF and the ShinBet have acknowledged that a special unit has been established to hunt down and kill every single Palestinian terrorist involved in the October 7 attacks, the newly unit, as it's called, has worked over the last three years to compile and extensive list of those involved in the atrocities and then eliminate them one by one.
3:35
[SPEAKER_00]: This is reminiscent of the unit stood up by the most sought after the 1972 Olympics massacre.
3:40
[SPEAKER_00]: In Munich, the Kesaria unit, as it was later identified, hunted down all of those involved for years after the attack, the world over.
3:50
[SPEAKER_00]: The Israelis have a long memory, folks, that I, for an, I think it's serious for the Israelis.
3:55
[SPEAKER_00]: There is no expiration date on that.
3:57
[SPEAKER_00]: I can't imagine the Hamas guys are sleeping well these days, those that were involved in this attack.
4:03
[SPEAKER_00]: headline two, the hoothies are added again.
4:05
[SPEAKER_00]: They haven't shut down the Babel Mandab and they aren't attacking U.S. ships, but they are attacking South Yemen, which is the counter force to the hoothies in the war-torned country of Yemen.
4:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Missiles and drones slammed into the port of Mocha, killing seven.
4:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Some say Mocha is the birthplace of coffee drinking, by the way.
4:22
[SPEAKER_00]: There was another attack this morning that reportedly killed two in South Yemen.
4:26
[SPEAKER_00]: The Houthis also attacked an oil refinery and Saudi this weekend.
4:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Shortly after the Saudis announced their defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan, the defense pact didn't amount to much given that the Houthis have not paid a price for their aggression.
4:39
[SPEAKER_00]: More on that with today's guest in just a few minutes.
4:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Headline 3, Russian and Syrian officials met this weekend to iron out the fate of several Russian bases that were once bustling during the Bashar al-Assad era.
4:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They've been decidedly quiet during the Ahmet al-Shara era, but it now seems like the two sides have reached agreements to turn two bases into joint training and capacity building centers.
5:03
[SPEAKER_00]: with new arrangements that preserve mutual interest.
5:07
[SPEAKER_00]: That's a direct quote, and it's a little overwrought, but I guess I understand the gist.
5:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Quick refresher here.
5:12
[SPEAKER_00]: It was Putin's Russia that propped up the Assad regime for years.
5:15
[SPEAKER_00]: During the 13-year Syrian civil war, the Shah government being the al-Qaeda guys that fought to bring down the Assad regime didn't love that.
5:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But Russia has now offering support for the new government, which is weak, and can probably use all the support it can get.
5:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Russia's power projection in the Middle East is not what it used to be either.
5:34
[SPEAKER_00]: So I suppose it all makes sense on some level.
5:38
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's watch and see what the bell is.
5:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And headline 4, The Iranian Weekend at Bernie Stick is still going with regime TV flashing a full 15 seconds of video, purportedly showing the likeness of a Iranian Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamini.
5:54
[SPEAKER_00]: If you blink twice, you might have missed it.
5:56
[SPEAKER_00]: Meanwhile, Taran's impotent president, Masud Pazashkiyon claims to have talked with the absentee senior cleric
6:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not so sure about that, Khmeini has not been seen in public, since the strikes that killed his father and injured him at the start of the war, and Bezeshkiyon has been a little lonely lately without much work to do as he continues to get isolated by others in the whatever's left of this romper gene.
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: So I suppose it's nice that Bezeshkiyon found an imaginary friend come to think of it.
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: I had told a snuffle up a guess could be my new moniker for Moochtaba,
6:33
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, it's time for our interview.
6:35
[SPEAKER_00]: You've all seen him on this program before.
6:37
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a repeat offender.
6:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Stephen Cook is a senior fellow at the council on foreign relations.
6:42
[SPEAKER_00]: He is a regular column at foreign policy.
6:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And he writes books as often as I go deep sea fishing about once every two years or so.
6:49
[SPEAKER_00]: His latest is the is called the end of ambition.
6:52
[SPEAKER_00]: America's past present and future in the Middle East.
6:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Would you could buy on Amazon right now?
6:57
[SPEAKER_00]: But you won't because I want you to pay attention because I am welcoming him
7:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to the FDD Morning Breeze Steven Cook.
7:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Good morning.
7:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Good morning.
7:11
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
7:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to talk to you about this beautiful mocha first.
7:17
[SPEAKER_00]: enjoy from Mocha.
7:20
[SPEAKER_00]: So I want to talk about this mutual defense pact.
7:23
[SPEAKER_00]: It's between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.
7:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It is, I guess, a sunny power pact if we want to call it bad.
7:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe some sort of counterbalance to whatever Iran is doing.
7:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But really, what the hell is it?
7:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Explain.
7:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, it seems to me that the Saudis' architects of some of the dumbest decisions in the Middle East over the course of the last three years are now flailing about trying to shore up their deterrence and defenses.
7:58
[SPEAKER_01]: given the fact that they no longer trust that the United States can be a dependable provider of security and stability in the region.
8:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I think for obvious reasons, I mean, if we really want to be honest about it, they love President Trump for a variety of reasons.
8:13
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the unpredictability and the unpredictability in which he has prosecuted the Operation Epic Fury has people in Riyadh scratching our heads.
8:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Now,
8:24
[SPEAKER_01]: They're looking around and they're angry at the Emeraldies.
8:28
[SPEAKER_01]: They're angry at these rallies.
8:30
[SPEAKER_01]: They can't throw their lot in with the United States and these rallies in the same way that the Emeraldies have and they have a stab, but they've had long established relations with Pakistan and have in the last few years repaired their relations with Turkey.
8:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Saudi officials say that while they don't necessarily love Turkish President Richard Piper to one, they rather have
8:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Turkey is alleged to have a formidable military as does Pakistan.
8:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And so the Saudis are sending a message that they have options other than the United States.
9:05
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think this is also a message to the Israelis, the Emirati, and the others who still see the Abraham Accords as the future of the region.
9:16
[SPEAKER_01]: That
9:18
[SPEAKER_01]: There's another option here, and the Saudis are developing it.
9:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And this has all kinds of implications.
9:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So they look, the regional political order that the United States built and led is now fractured.
9:31
[SPEAKER_01]: There was supposed to be this thing called the India Middle East, economic, Europe, economic order, which was moving goods from India,
9:42
[SPEAKER_01]: through the Rayman Peninsula to Israel across to Greece and on to Europe now the Saudis and Turks are floating on alternative route that doesn't go through doesn't go through Israel.
9:55
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, so there's a new one and put a pin in that because I got to talk to you about iMac.
9:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and you're preempting me.
10:01
[SPEAKER_00]: So don't do that.
10:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So you're good.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: You're good.
10:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, all right.
10:04
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to ask you first.
10:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me let let's just assess the early goalings of this.
10:10
[SPEAKER_00]: The rollout seemed chaotic.
10:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Um, and I know that there were diplomats running around Washington last week.
10:17
[SPEAKER_00]: trying to explain what was going on, because these are, of course, all American allies, and they're trying to explain how this is not something that is supplanting the US-led regional order, but I think it probably is.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: So there was the kind of the failure of the rollout, which we can talk about, but then there's also the practical matter of this.
10:39
[SPEAKER_00]: The
10:42
[SPEAKER_00]: They attacked also the Saudi allies in South Yemen.
10:48
[SPEAKER_00]: The question really that I have right now is has this pact failed already based on what we've just seen?
10:55
[SPEAKER_01]: I think within the first 10 seconds of few minutes of it, I said, I find it really hard to believe that the Turks are going to fight the Houthis on behalf of the Souths.
11:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I find it hard to believe that even the Pakistanis who are the backbone of the Saudi military are going to throw themselves into a fight against the Northeast in a way that is going to make much of a difference.
11:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I think the Saudis are alone here.
11:22
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there are there were in fact diplomats in Washington last week who were talking up the fact that the United States and the UK and maybe even India rejoined in an effort against the Northeast.
11:36
[SPEAKER_01]: of their Turkish and Pakistani allies here.
11:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So I think this defense pact is worth the paper.
11:45
[SPEAKER_01]: It's not going to be, look, the Pakistanis already are offering the Saudis a nuclear umbrella.
11:52
[SPEAKER_01]: The Saudis say groups like the Houthis aren't in existential threat.
11:56
[SPEAKER_01]: So maybe this is their way of wiggling out of the fact that this security pact has already fell.
12:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The fact of matter is, is also, is that the most capable Arab state.
12:09
[SPEAKER_01]: who could come and help the Saudis in Yemen against the Houthis, they've alienated.
12:14
[SPEAKER_01]: That's the U.B.E.
12:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Big fight happening between the UAE and Saudi Arabia going back the last December when the Saudis bombed Emirati allies in South Yemen.
12:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So now the Saudis stand alone.
12:28
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no indication that there are in any better position to take on the Houthis now than they were when this conflict.
12:35
[SPEAKER_01]: kind of wound down three years ago.
12:38
[SPEAKER_01]: In fact, the Houthis have more advanced weaponry.
12:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't see this defense pact as being much of anything and I think the Saudis now have a fight on their hands.
12:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I tend to agree.
12:51
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, but let me take this and maybe even a step further here.
12:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So we've got the sort of snarling at the Iranian regime.
13:01
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that's what this is supposed to be at its most basic level, right?
13:06
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a, I think it's a slap down of the US-led war even if they're saying that it's not, I think we can all see it for what it is.
13:17
[SPEAKER_00]: not exactly a vote of confidence for the American-led regional order.
13:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It's definitely, it seems like a snub of the UAE in some ways.
13:26
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen this is continuing that it used to be that the Saudis and the Emirates work were always in the same alliances together, and now they're not.
13:35
[SPEAKER_00]: But I also think, tell me from wrong here, that this is also a shot at Israel.
13:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Because I think that these three countries have not exactly been, well, supportive of Israel's battles since October 7th.
13:51
[SPEAKER_00]: The Saudis, they may have changed their tune.
13:53
[SPEAKER_00]: The Saudis kind of were, to, I guess, quietly aligned with the Israelis at the beginning of the war.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And maybe even appear to be on the same side as Israel as of February 28, but that quickly changed as I feel like, I don't know, the circumstances began to unravel around the Middle East, as this war has played out.
14:13
[SPEAKER_00]: But the Turks and the Pakistanis have been downright nasty to the Israelis.
14:18
[SPEAKER_00]: This Sunni power structure does seem to be taking aim at Israel on some level.
14:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think that that's right.
14:26
[SPEAKER_01]: First, let me just take on this question.
14:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Like, this is somehow to face down the Iranians.
14:32
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, this is kind of silly.
14:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Lots of people have bleed for many years.
14:36
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, the Turks and the Iranians, they're going to fight with each other somehow.
14:43
[SPEAKER_01]: They're maybe their strategic competitors.
14:46
[SPEAKER_01]: But
14:47
[SPEAKER_01]: at the Turks had no intention of getting themselves involved in the fact when they got with the fact that the Israelis and the United States were raised a Kurdish army to march on Tehran.
14:59
[SPEAKER_01]: They said that they were going to provide air cover fourth year rockets in that in that case.
15:04
[SPEAKER_01]: The Pakistanis have long relationship with the Iranians themselves.
15:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I do think that there is an aspect of this trying to isolate the Israelis in the region.
15:13
[SPEAKER_01]: particularly, this is particularly the case on the of the Turks who are have been working very hard.
15:20
[SPEAKER_01]: They were the first country to take economic measures against Israel.
15:24
[SPEAKER_01]: You're quite right.
15:25
[SPEAKER_01]: The Saudis very early on signaled that they understood why the Israelis would need to respond to Hamas.
15:31
[SPEAKER_01]: They wanted the Israeli campaign to be quick and devastating so that they could continue along their diplomatic path with the Israelis.
15:39
[SPEAKER_01]: That obviously didn't happen.
15:41
[SPEAKER_01]: But I do think between the Pakistanis and the Turks and now the Saudis who are see these rallies as agents of chaos around the region in many ways, I think there is an effort underway to try to isolate these rallies.
15:55
[SPEAKER_01]: And by extension the Emirates as well, which they see increasingly increasingly together.
16:01
[SPEAKER_01]: But the Turks are going to throw their weight around
16:04
[SPEAKER_01]: with other Gulf countries as well as on Cyprus and with Greece as the Greeks are in with the Israelis and Emirates although the stunning irony is is that Greek and air defense crews have helped protect Saudi Arabia in recent weeks against the yeah this gives you a sense of how
16:31
[SPEAKER_01]: who is willing to actually help him?
16:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, look, I got to say between that and the question of normalization that's been lingering out there between the Israelis and the Saudis.
16:41
[SPEAKER_00]: And we all know that's a process, not an event.
16:43
[SPEAKER_00]: We know that there are already fairly deep ties that exist.
16:46
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you got the Greeks, and then you got this weird thing with the Emirates.
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Everything seems like it's up in the air, but all right, I want to talk specifically.
16:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You mentioned IMEC before, so let's get into this.
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So IMEC, you mentioned, was a trade route that was born of the Abraham Accords, right?
17:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You got the Emirates, and you got the Bahrainies doing this back in 2020.
17:06
[SPEAKER_00]: And then it spurs this thing that we now identify as the India Middle East quarter,
17:13
[SPEAKER_00]: It starts in the Gulf with energy, but you've got two-way traffic to India and ally of the Israelis.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And I have friend to a lot of the other countries in the region.
17:27
[SPEAKER_00]: And then you've got this idea of a railway that takes things through Jordan and Israel by way of the UAE.
17:36
[SPEAKER_00]: And
17:37
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, the hope was Saudi Arabia.
17:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
17:40
[SPEAKER_00]: And then then you have goods and energy also going into southern Europe.
17:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So you got Greece and Cyprus in there.
17:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Now you look at this new alliance.
17:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
17:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You've got the Turks in there, which means that they are automatically anti Israel and anti-Grease
18:00
[SPEAKER_00]: And, I don't know, maybe even anti-India, I don't know, right?
18:04
[SPEAKER_00]: That sort of won, right?
18:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you get the Saudis in there and they're saying, well, we're going to, um, you know, we're going to nudge out the UAE.
18:14
[SPEAKER_00]: You got Pakistan in there and they've got a clear axe to grind with the Indian so far.
18:19
[SPEAKER_00]: This looks like a direct challenge to iMac.
18:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I think this.
18:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, the way that people are talking about it, though, is that it's not a trade alliance.
18:30
[SPEAKER_00]: but it's hard to look at it that way.
18:33
[SPEAKER_01]: It's hard to look at it that way, especially since in the weeks before the Saudis and the Turks agreed to rebuild the hija's railway.
18:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So the new in what, you know, the Saudis had to say they made no decision, etc, etc, but they don't have to announce any kind of decision.
18:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So the new route would be
18:55
[SPEAKER_01]: up through satirated this new Hijaz railway to Damascus from Damascus up through Turkey and then from Turkey into Europe by passing.
19:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I guess if we go up through Jordan, the Hijaz railway goes up through Jordan into Syria.
19:09
[SPEAKER_01]: So it just bypass Israel, Greece, and Cyprus.
19:14
[SPEAKER_01]: How anybody could say, well, this is just a
19:19
[SPEAKER_01]: without taking into the broader context here where you have two actors in this new defense back talking about a railroad that obviously changes the original plan of IMA.
19:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, the Indians have said, and Narendra Modi's most recent visit to Israel, he confirmed that he remains committed to IMA.
19:43
[SPEAKER_01]: These railes can't remain committed to IMA.
19:49
[SPEAKER_01]: In which, you know, it goes Emirates up through into Israel and out, I find this, you know, an expensive waste of time, and maybe none of these things ever get out of a planning stages.
20:02
[SPEAKER_01]: But what I think it reflects is regional tensions and this fracturing of the American order in the region and on the part of the Turks, in particular, Saudis going along with it,
20:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I will say I did hear from a Brandon Saudi last week that there was no reason why both of those routes could not exist, providing alternatives given where we are with the straight-of-war moves and possibly Babel Mandav at some point.
20:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That, hey, wouldn't more options for trade routes be better.
20:41
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, on the one hand, yes, on the other hand, I guess it depends on how deep the competition goes between what we call step, Saudi Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and I'm at.
20:52
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think that all remains to be seen.
20:54
[SPEAKER_00]: But okay.
20:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I want to ask you, we talk about step, right?
20:58
[SPEAKER_00]: We are missing the Yi in Saudi Turkey Egypt Pakistan.
21:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Egypt was not part of this agreement.
21:07
[SPEAKER_00]: So what happened?
21:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I understand they said there were some technical issues, which to me seems kind of silly, you couldn't sign any agreement that you want.
21:15
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's not like the constitution of Egypt.
21:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Rains supreme.
21:20
[SPEAKER_00]: People
21:23
[SPEAKER_00]: the government violation.
21:24
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a reason why the guy's a dictator over there.
21:27
[SPEAKER_00]: He gets to do what he wants in the country.
21:29
[SPEAKER_00]: So why did he pause?
21:31
[SPEAKER_01]: Well, I think there's two reasons.
21:33
[SPEAKER_01]: The US and the UAE, I think, any effort.
21:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And as we're discussing, it's sniffs of trying to isolate Israel in the region.
21:42
[SPEAKER_01]: You don't want to annoy the Trump administration by taking action that's going to isolate Israel.
21:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Even if this friction between the United States and Israel plus the Egyptians have to work with these rallies with regard to Gaza and Sinai security and so on and so forth.
21:57
[SPEAKER_01]: In many ways, in the last decade,
22:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Basically, dependent upon Israel to help them with security in the sign-out opinion.
22:07
[SPEAKER_01]: So, and then
22:09
[SPEAKER_01]: He really don't want to win Noi and BZ and the Emirati leadership because those, the Emirates continues to provide a financial buffer for a heavily in-getted Egypt.
22:23
[SPEAKER_01]: They do it in different ways than they used to.
22:26
[SPEAKER_01]: There's no direct cast transfers, but there's massive Emirati investment in Egypt that has essentially kept the Egyptian economy afloat over these many years since Abdel Fata
22:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So joining up, even though the Egyptians have kind of leaned in that direction,
22:45
[SPEAKER_01]: uh, is a real problem for the, for the Egyptians.
22:49
[SPEAKER_01]: Remember when not long after hostilities between the United States around it is all kind of came to an end.
22:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, and the revelations that the Israelis had rushed in iron dome and iron beam system to help protect the UAE.
23:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Uh, suddenly, CC showed up in, uh, in the UAE with a squadron of Raphel
23:13
[SPEAKER_01]: And that was because, and the MRI is like, look, we're going to remember who came to our assistance.
23:19
[SPEAKER_01]: And all of a sudden these Egyptians showed up.
23:21
[SPEAKER_01]: They weren't going to do anything.
23:23
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think the threat was clear of being cut off financially.
23:26
[SPEAKER_01]: So the Egyptians are hammered between the MRI Israeli, Greek, Cypriot relationship.
23:34
[SPEAKER_01]: There are new robust relations with Turkey.
23:37
[SPEAKER_01]: They're obviously long connection with Saudi Arabia
23:43
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think they're just going to say, we're going to try to move in between these two to make sure that we don't upset anybody.
23:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, kind of consistent with the situation about hanging out in the middle of the road.
23:55
[SPEAKER_01]: It's, you know, look, it's in a way it's a version of NASA's positive neutralism, which is, you know, you try to extract as much from the big wealthier powers as you can by not angering one or the other and you gain a lot of leverage at what?
24:10
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
24:11
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, that to me sounds like maybe another way of describing a grift.
24:16
[SPEAKER_00]: But okay, um, all right, before I let you go, um, where are we with this war in Iran?
24:22
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, what does it mean if Donald Trump is low-keying the war?
24:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Do you understand the strategy?
24:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I was laughing when he said low-keying the war.
24:31
[SPEAKER_01]: I was like, that's kind of sus.
24:33
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, after all, he's an oak.
24:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I'm done with that lingo.
24:38
[SPEAKER_01]: I have an 18-year-old and a 21-year-old.
24:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, an 18-year-old is cringing right now.
24:43
[SPEAKER_01]: She's still asleep.
24:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Okay, and any of it.
24:48
[SPEAKER_01]: Look, I think the president is trying to find the least possible, personally humiliating way out of this, and the Iranians won't let him do it.
24:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And so he vacates between escalation ending civilization, they don't respond to that, and then he says, okay, we're going to do operation epic.
25:09
[SPEAKER_01]: economic epic fury and hope that the regime, hope that the regime falls.
25:13
[SPEAKER_01]: All of this stuff is absolutely uncertain.
25:17
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what economic collapse needs, based on what we're hearing from what's coming out of Iran, they are experiencing economic collapse.
25:25
[SPEAKER_01]: But
25:26
[SPEAKER_01]: the regime is willing to apply massive amounts of force and violence against the population.
25:33
[SPEAKER_01]: So you could have a collapse and not have the people come out into the streets in demand a new regime because they're going to get moved down by people using heavy weapons.
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: So all of this is incredibly uncertain and speaks to the drawbacks of going to war without an actual plan and based on a field.
25:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think there was a plan.
25:55
[SPEAKER_00]: I just don't know if the plan has worked out.
25:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And, um, well, everybody has a plan until they punch through the face.
26:01
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
26:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Right.
26:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I get punched in the face.
26:03
[SPEAKER_00]: We've been punched in the face.
26:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Now the question is, what are we going to do about it?
26:07
[SPEAKER_00]: That Timmy seems like the next big thing that needs to be decided.
26:11
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know if it's really doesn't know.
26:14
[SPEAKER_00]: Is the response to getting hit in the face?
26:17
[SPEAKER_00]: And so I suppose we continue to look for answers.
26:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll bring you back on at some point, and you can tell us how it's going.
26:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I like to be a recidivist like this.
26:25
[SPEAKER_01]: This is fun.
26:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's a it's a hoot.
26:28
[SPEAKER_00]: All right.
26:29
[SPEAKER_00]: Stephen Cook.
26:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Thank you for joining us yet again on the FD morning brief.
26:37
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, folks, stick a fork in this Monday episode.
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm already thinking about Wednesday.
26:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you're also thinking about Wednesday, but you need a fix, feel free to head on over to fdd.org to read our stuff and catch up on this crazy world we live in.
26:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Also, feel free to check us out on social media where a breath of smartness amidst the flood of stupidity that often fills your feed.
26:58
[SPEAKER_00]: And finally, if you are feeling generous on this second Monday and August, you can always pick a taxed up the bull donation at fdd.org slash.
27:07
[SPEAKER_00]: best a reminder here that we are one of the few thing tanks in Washington that takes no foreign government funding.
27:13
[SPEAKER_00]: So we got that going for us, which is nice.
27:16
[SPEAKER_00]: All right folks, we're going to see you Wednesday until then, have a great beginning of your week.
27:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jonathan Chanzer signing off for FTD.