Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin's Warning Signal & The Historic STEALTH Bear Market

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Crypto Rundown: Bitcoin's Warning Signal & The Historic STEALTH Bear Market · CRYPTO 101

0:09
[SPEAKER_00]: All right, everybody, welcome back to the crypto rundown.
0:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We had some volatility last week.
0:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Is Bitcoin flashing warning signs?
0:17
[SPEAKER_00]: You see it up on the screen right now.
0:19
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got Brendan back.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: We haven't had him here in a couple weeks.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: So we want to jump right into the charts with him.
0:24
[SPEAKER_00]: You can see on the screen, we've had some volatility hitting those support lines.
0:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Brendan's going to tell us what is going on in the charts.
0:30
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, of course, we have a full rundown to get to.
0:33
[SPEAKER_00]: It is the last week of October.
0:38
[SPEAKER_00]: But we told you on Friday, if you listened, the McRib is back.
0:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So we covered the sentimental value of the McRib could it rock this higher into the end of the year?
0:47
[SPEAKER_00]: But I need some hardcore evidence from the charts.
0:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So none of this McRib nonsense today.
0:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Let's dive into the technical analysis.
0:54
[SPEAKER_00]: Welcome back to The Show, my friend.
0:56
[SPEAKER_01]: It's good to be back, man.
0:58
[SPEAKER_01]: I always have so much fun on these.
0:59
[SPEAKER_01]: I hope everyone listening has a lot of fun as well.
1:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, not a huge uptober month, but it hasn't been that bad for the crypto market either.
1:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Kind of just a little bit of a bleed after a really strong August in September and I'll tell you what, Tvo.
1:15
[SPEAKER_01]: I was in the front lines, I was in the trenches, I got in a fist fight with the bears, me and the bears, we're going back and forth, peace in each other up.
1:23
[SPEAKER_01]: The bear clawed me in the face a couple of times.
1:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I tried to defend us bulls, as you can see, I got a couple of scars on the face right now because of it.
1:32
[SPEAKER_01]: But no, I'll jokes aside, uh, you're just getting ready for Halloween.
1:35
[SPEAKER_00]: You're telling me, oh, I got, you know, I, I'm still down to do the content, but I got sliced up a little bit at the Dermatile.
1:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, yeah, you're just getting ready for Halloween, you're just a couple of days early.
1:44
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, exactly.
1:45
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you're right.
1:46
[SPEAKER_01]: It's all part of the process.
1:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But you know, all jokes aside, just got a little bit of a few things taken off my face here because that's just the way it goes in Florida.
1:55
[SPEAKER_01]: You get a little bit too much sun sometimes and stuff like this happens.
2:00
[SPEAKER_01]: But you're right, you know, when it comes to the markets, down for the last couple of weeks here, you have Bitcoin bleeding off those highs.
2:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And that we saw right around 87k and then when October started right around in here, right right over in here, we kind of retested the highs and then rolled over and then came up and then rolled a little bit deeper and you kind of see price action falling here of the course of October.
2:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Now again, not anything crazy.
2:25
[SPEAKER_01]: We started the month right here right around 83 and a half thousand.
2:29
[SPEAKER_01]: We fell about 5% off that high, but shortly after the start of the month,
2:38
[SPEAKER_01]: rose about four to five percent, we fell about five percent.
2:41
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're still down about four percent here on Bitcoin.
2:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, not a ton of volatility, but a nice little bleed here and the charts as Bitcoin has worked its way lower.
2:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, what I'll say to you, is I think that there's a couple of catalysts for this.
2:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one, I think Bitcoin was taking a breather.
2:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, let's zoom out here.
2:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Look at this huge move up that we got.
3:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin moving from the low 60 high 50s, all the way up here in August.
3:05
[SPEAKER_01]: cooling off, moving up again in September.
3:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And then now I think what we're getting here is another bit of a cooling off period.
3:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, could we head lower from here?
3:14
[SPEAKER_01]: We could, but again, my thought process is that we are really just basically both lagging or consolidating before a move higher.
3:23
[SPEAKER_01]: Now again,
3:24
[SPEAKER_01]: uh, I would leave that door open and say there is room for Bitcoin to move lower here.
3:29
[SPEAKER_01]: I've said this before and I'll say it again.
3:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You historically see about 10 to 12 pullbacks on Bitcoin inside of a bull market that are 10% or greater.
3:39
[SPEAKER_01]: So you see about a dozen different
3:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, double digit retracement of 10% or more in Bitcoin inside of a bull market that's yet to be something that we've seen.
3:49
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen a 9% pullback.
3:50
[SPEAKER_01]: We've seen a 7% pullback.
3:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So far we've come close.
3:53
[SPEAKER_01]: This has actually been the second 9% pullback on Bitcoin.
3:57
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and as we're working our way back in here, we're still not at that 10% retracement mark.
4:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So is it possible that at some point Bitcoin does go a little bit deeper.
4:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I would say it's possible.
4:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, am I betting that we're going to go back to the lows?
4:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely not.
4:10
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, I think that that is not even something that I'm really thinking about right now.
4:14
[SPEAKER_01]: But could we maybe go a little bit lower?
4:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Yes, my big point is saying, hey, guys, whether we're right here or maybe we go a little bit lower down in here, my thought process is, I want to be buying the dip.
4:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to be net long.
4:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I want to be net bullish.
4:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that the people who are switching all their stances and thinking that we're going to get the next big market crash again.
4:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't see the argument for it, I don't see the evidence for that.
4:38
[SPEAKER_01]: Right now what we're seeing on Bitcoin is that the structure is holding up pretty well, and there's three big things I want to kind of bring everyone into the loop on.
4:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Number one, Bitcoin is pulling back right here to these prior highs.
4:50
[SPEAKER_01]: You see Bitcoin peeking up over in here, peeking up over in here, this one's from around May, this high over here is up from around September and the end of August.
4:59
[SPEAKER_01]: And as Bitcoin is coming back into these prior all-time highs, you'd expect these former resistance areas to be used as support.
5:09
[SPEAKER_01]: The second thing I would want to say is that this orange line in here, this is the anchored VWAP from the all-time high.
5:16
[SPEAKER_01]: This is another area that for the entirety of the bear market, ever since we topped out, it was used as resistance all the way down until the point of us finding a bottom.
5:28
[SPEAKER_01]: Right?
5:29
[SPEAKER_01]: So now that we have broken above this, I would expect this anchored VW up from the all-time high to be used to support because it used to be resistance.
5:36
[SPEAKER_01]: And then the third one that I would just want to add in here is that I'd want to put a little bit of a volume point of control in here.
5:42
[SPEAKER_01]: We're a visible range volume profile and we can make this even a little bit bigger.
5:47
[SPEAKER_01]: But
5:48
[SPEAKER_01]: If we go and we look at this, what we can get here is really seeing that, hey, as we pull back into this area, you get another big volume point of control over here for Bitcoin, as we are trying to really retest this area.
6:01
[SPEAKER_01]: So I want to keep an eye on this as well.
6:03
[SPEAKER_01]: So there's three different areas of support.
6:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, you have the volume point of control right here.
6:08
[SPEAKER_01]: You have the...
6:11
[SPEAKER_01]: Prior highs coming in as well, which should be used to support and have that anchor view up from the old time high And that's really where you see Bitcoin getting some bids as it comes back down in here, right?
6:21
[SPEAKER_01]: You a Bitcoin moving back down.
6:23
[SPEAKER_01]: You see the buyers already coming in and it's not just in a free fall through this level Which I want to expect it to be
6:29
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, if you start cracking that again, you open up the opportunity to maybe revisit the bottom of this consolidation range.
6:34
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe that 200-day moving average, which is in here as well.
6:37
[SPEAKER_01]: And I think you could look at both of those levels as like viable options.
6:41
[SPEAKER_01]: But again, my thought processes that as we kind of come down in here, I want to be looking at Bitcoin.
6:49
[SPEAKER_01]: you know, as a buying opportunity and I think Bitcoin's leading the crypto market.
6:52
[SPEAKER_01]: So again, a couple different layers of support as we work our way down and to maybe the like $77,000 level around there, you have a lot of support kind of leading into that from that volume point of control.
7:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Now moving forward, there are a couple of things that I want to highlight.
7:07
[SPEAKER_01]: Because there are, you know, some, I would say some sketchy behavior going on here from Bitcoin and the large caps that I'm not too fond of.
7:16
[SPEAKER_01]: There's two sides to every coin.
7:18
[SPEAKER_01]: The thing that I don't like on Bitcoin is you got to break out of these prior highs, right?
7:21
[SPEAKER_01]: You got to break out of this level, it moved up, consolidated down, let me get this tool back, consolidated down, bounced off, and then squeezed into the highs here.
7:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So higher lows, flat level resistance, and then it failed the breakout, broke through the
7:40
[SPEAKER_01]: And then now we're seeing a break below the 50-day moving average.
7:43
[SPEAKER_01]: The other thing here is you got a bit of a squeeze where the 20 was being used as resistance.
7:48
[SPEAKER_01]: The 50 was over here being used as support.
7:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Really no candle bodies closed on this daily chart below the 50.
7:54
[SPEAKER_01]: It was holding there despite all these wicks piercing through.
7:58
[SPEAKER_01]: And then outside of the squeeze between the 20 and the 50, you got a break higher to you though.
8:02
[SPEAKER_01]: You got back above the 20-day moving average.
8:05
[SPEAKER_01]: broke through these prior local highs on it, pierced up and then you had a huge failure to go higher candle.
8:13
[SPEAKER_01]: As it kind of pierced through here, failed to close above the prior highs and then saw a massive red candle afterwards.
8:19
[SPEAKER_01]: So I don't like the failed breakout after another failed breakout because you have the failed breakout of the highs up here, fell through the 20 failed breakout of the 20 day moving average and then now you're falling below the 50 and the 20 day moving
8:34
[SPEAKER_01]: a death cross here on the one day short-term moving averages.
8:40
[SPEAKER_01]: So, you know, I don't like that.
8:41
[SPEAKER_01]: I think so long as we are beneath the short-term moving averages, I am sitting just a little bit cautious.
8:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, if I'm looking really long-term, I think it's a by the dip opportunity.
8:49
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think if you're trying to be a little bit more short-term focus, mid-term focus, you're trying to trade, so long as you're beneath those shorter-term moving averages, I think you got to be a little bit careful.
9:00
[SPEAKER_01]: There needs to be a little bit of a cautious sign out there to say, okay, well, until we invalidate that, maybe I just want to be a tad bit more cautious than I have been.
9:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And you're seeing that happen on a lot of these large caps as well, right?
9:11
[SPEAKER_01]: You go over to ETH.
9:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the same story.
9:14
[SPEAKER_01]: You broke out above these prior consolidation range, and then you broke out, form the bull flag, and then you failed to break out, rolled through the 20, through the 50, down deeper, came up, rejected the 50 day moving average, rejected the 20 day moving average, formed the death cross, continued consolidating and rejecting underneath the death cross, and then now you see at the area and rolling deeper into the downside, into new monthly lows.
9:42
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, so long as we are beneath that death cross again, that makes me just wanna like sit back a little bit, say, okay, let's maybe be a little bit less aggressive.
9:50
[SPEAKER_01]: Let's wait from a trading standpoint for us to get back above these short-term moving averages, maybe form a golden cross, seal a little bit more of a positive trend here.
10:00
[SPEAKER_01]: Um, and until we do that, I just, again, want to be a little bit more cautious.
10:04
[SPEAKER_01]: It's the same story with Solana, right?
10:05
[SPEAKER_01]: Solana kind of breaking above these highs into new highs, not able to go higher into what is a really big resistance range, because for basically two years Solana struggled to break through 120 bucks, now it's finally beneath this prior support range, and we know that it's being used as a pretty decent resistance level as Solana already rejected all
10:27
[SPEAKER_01]: about 21% to the downside.
10:31
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's going to be a big level right around 120.
10:33
[SPEAKER_01]: Similar story here.
10:35
[SPEAKER_01]: You have it going through the 20 and the 50 day moving averages, consolidating beneath those, consolidating beneath the death cross that's in here as well.
10:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And so long as press action is trading down here, I think, again, I want to be a little bit more cautious.
10:51
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, do I think we have long-term accumulation opportunities down here?
10:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Absolutely, right?
10:56
[SPEAKER_01]: A stand behind that.
10:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I think there's huge long-term.
10:58
[SPEAKER_01]: But I think if you are a little bit more near-sighted, if you are scared of downside risk, if you're trying to trade, I think that that's just something that you need to kind of keep in the back of your head.
11:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I've like, hey,
11:09
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, we kind of failed the break higher at a big resistance.
11:12
[SPEAKER_01]: Now we're back beneath the short-term moving averages.
11:14
[SPEAKER_01]: We're rejecting them.
11:15
[SPEAKER_01]: We see the death cross.
11:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe I want to be just a little bit more cautious until we reverse that or invalidate that.
11:22
[SPEAKER_01]: And that's the big thing that I'm looking at moving forward.
11:25
[SPEAKER_01]: And you've seen this affect the handful of altcoins too, right?
11:28
[SPEAKER_01]: You know,
11:30
[SPEAKER_01]: You can continue to look at the large caps, like XRP and B&B, which are kind of doing a little bit differently, actually, than Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.
11:38
[SPEAKER_01]: But nonetheless, you kind of take a look at altcoins across the board here, whether it's radium, which is kind of pulling back, or uni swap, which has been on a really big run, or even hyper-liquid as good as that has done.
11:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Everything's kind of pulled back in a little bit.
11:54
[SPEAKER_01]: So there have been a few exceptions, but altcoins are pulling back in alongside this.
11:58
[SPEAKER_01]: to kind of summarize it to you before I hand it back to you know my kind of summary here is do you have a little bit more room to move down it's possible right i'm there are some morning signs out there but i think out of this i think we get another one of those tremendous longing opportunities maybe that means we have a little bit further to go but regardless i'm kind of looking at this and saying okay i'm a little bit cautious but like
12:21
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm still not even close to being a bear.
12:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that a lot of those signals are there that are saying, hey, we get pullbacks and the truth is, you know, we're going to get pullbacks that are much worse than this in the future.
12:31
[SPEAKER_01]: And we're going to continue in the bull market afterwards, right?
12:34
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a chance that you get, you know, we've seen about a 9% pullback.
12:37
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a chance that we more than double that to a 20% pullback.
12:40
[SPEAKER_01]: Sometimes in prior cycles, we've gotten 30% pullbacks.
12:44
[SPEAKER_01]: And you see that happen on Bitcoin.
12:45
[SPEAKER_01]: Everyone's calling that the cycle's over.
12:47
[SPEAKER_01]: You get it and then Bitcoin heads higher afterwards.
12:50
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I'm not too worried you get this.
12:53
[SPEAKER_01]: It's part of the game.
12:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Volatility's right alongside with the crypto market.
12:58
[SPEAKER_01]: They're best friends.
13:00
[SPEAKER_00]: It's great breakdown.
13:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And we appreciate you coming on with appreciate you being honest.
13:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, that short term is interesting.
13:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And it kind of easily flows into the next segment that I'm going to do, and it's more of a macro segment.
13:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to touch on before we jump into some crypto
13:20
[SPEAKER_00]: you'll see on the screen it's a five minute segment we're not going to watch it but the I've I've just been kind of saying this stealth bear market and you're seeing some interesting things on the macro of you know we wouldn't first say and like hey rates are going higher I know I said hey you don't fight the Fed there's been some pullbacks but it's just been an intro interesting underlying piece of the market because for the first time in history nearly 60% of the S&B 500's components are in a bear market.
13:47
[SPEAKER_00]: well the index just trades about 3% away from record highs um it's just an interesting time where again you're looking at you know the NASDAQ this and P close these all-time highs but there's so much churn going on under the markets and there's so many you know high flyers that were big winners and we take the same approach at crypto like hey if you see a hockey stick chart
14:07
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, it'd be careful because that could definitely reverse most of the time it does reverse the other way.
14:13
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe not go back down to where it started on that hockey stick chart, but there's going to be some type of a correction.
14:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And so there's just some interesting companies, you know, mostly obviously around the eye trade, but just that stat, it's historic.
14:27
[SPEAKER_00]: It's you know, 60% of the S&P seems to be in a bear market, but we're 3% away from all-time highs.
14:33
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think crypto as we've talked about led the third quarter, which is really awesome for us.
14:40
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, we're kind of getting that pullback coming back to Earth.
14:43
[SPEAKER_00]: It's not a straight shot up.
14:44
[SPEAKER_00]: We've got the Fed meeting tomorrow.
14:47
[SPEAKER_00]: And then we've got, you know, we've got midterms.
14:50
[SPEAKER_00]: And I think that's, it's all right, good.
14:53
[SPEAKER_01]: Oh, no, no, go ahead.
14:54
[SPEAKER_00]: I got something to say after I was just saying like, you know, the midterms.
14:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously that we're on Fed watch and there's two things is like, we've learned, you know, the average person might not know that like, okay, the Fed raises interest rates lower interest rates.
15:08
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, but the bottom market really sets with the 10 year is, which is what the mortgage, you know, you're out your mortgage comes from the 10 year.
15:15
[SPEAKER_00]: And so, you know, there's bond vigilantes which have been moving the 10 year up before the Fed even raised rates and they're kind of abiding by the market raising those rates.
15:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So is there going to be another hike this year?
15:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Maybe, but that doesn't mean that the 10 years going to continue to rock it up.
15:29
[SPEAKER_00]: We've seen over the last a week or two here that the 10 years kind of.
15:33
[SPEAKER_00]: come down some basis points.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: Even though we're still expecting the Fed to hike into the year, I think the bond market is saying, hey, we're starting to trust the Fed.
15:42
[SPEAKER_00]: There was like, hey, is the Fed going to do what they need to do?
15:45
[SPEAKER_00]: And if they don't, the vigilantes will come in and rock at this 10-year-up and kind of force their, I think the bond market is happy at least for now with the Fed and how they're jaw-boning, talking, and taking action.
15:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So we have a fed meeting tomorrow.
15:59
[SPEAKER_00]: The consensus is nothing's going to happen.
16:01
[SPEAKER_00]: They don't want to be political.
16:02
[SPEAKER_00]: The following week, we have election day going to have up this chart of just hey, after midterms, we got this 2121 dating back to 1942 average gain, 16 percent.
16:12
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, this is just for the SNP.
16:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I know it doesn't relate to crypto.
16:15
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think, well, we had a podcast with Austin Barach, and I was cutting some clips from him because they're at their evergreen.
16:22
[SPEAKER_00]: And he kind of talked about, hey, you know, it one of his points in Bryce concurred.
16:26
[SPEAKER_00]: And I know you agree too is like, hey, it's a different air for crypto.
16:29
[SPEAKER_00]: It is very, very much tied into the macro.
16:30
[SPEAKER_00]: It is very, very much tied into the rest of the markets.
16:33
[SPEAKER_00]: We're not on an island anymore.
16:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Like we used to be, especially with all the regulation of, you know, the Clarity Act, the Clarity Act.
16:39
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna happen.
16:40
[SPEAKER_00]: It's gonna happen.
16:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Boom, it's not gonna happen.
16:42
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the market goes down.
16:43
[SPEAKER_00]: It's a fake out.
16:44
[SPEAKER_00]: And then, you know, Q3 rockets, even with no Clarity Act, it was a clearing event.
16:48
[SPEAKER_00]: And so it feels like,
16:50
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of job owning around crypto regulation.
16:52
[SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot of job owning around AI regulation.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'm just really interested to see.
16:57
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'd love for your thoughts too.
16:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Once this gets passed, we see how it all shakes out.
17:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Does that kind of tee up the rest of the year as a clearing of that?
17:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it does.
17:08
[SPEAKER_01]: And the thing I forgot to say in the TA portion is that Bitcoin's remained in crypto, but Bitcoin, especially, has remained
17:17
[SPEAKER_01]: very resilient in the face of what we've been seeing lately.
17:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I mean, just about everything you could throw to make Bitcoin want to be bearish as being thrown at it.
17:25
[SPEAKER_01]: You have high bond yields.
17:27
[SPEAKER_01]: You have rising inflation.
17:28
[SPEAKER_01]: You have a Fed who wants to hike instead of cut.
17:31
[SPEAKER_01]: You have oil prices high.
17:33
[SPEAKER_01]: And then on top of that, the icing on the cake here is that you had NASDAQ in a free fall, right?
17:38
[SPEAKER_01]: The whole tech sector in a free fall, falling 26 over 2600 points off of its all-time high and about a two week period.
17:47
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it was eight and a half percent something like that off the old time high and so we saw a about a 3% move down and that's that last week and that's what caused that big red candle and Bitcoin and Ethereum and Salon and a lot of these alt
18:02
[SPEAKER_01]: was you just had a blood bath in the traditional financial markets and specifically in the tech sector and you saw the ripple effects of that in the Bitcoin.
18:11
[SPEAKER_01]: And so despite having what has been, you know, again, a wipeout over and tradify, you have Bitcoin not
18:18
[SPEAKER_01]: moving that much to the downside despite that.
18:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And the past when you see NASDAQ getting wrecked near 10%, you see Bitcoin easily moving it one and a half, two, three times the volatility of that.
18:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And we haven't seen that this time around.
18:32
[SPEAKER_01]: Bitcoin's down basically the same as what NASDAQ has done without being necessarily paired to it.
18:38
[SPEAKER_01]: So, all things considered, you have an environment where you would say, hey, every basically bearish thing that you could throw it bit coin is being thrown at it, and it's holding value well.
18:50
[SPEAKER_01]: So it begs the question, what happens when all these things go away?
18:53
[SPEAKER_01]: What happens when inflation goes down?
18:56
[SPEAKER_01]: What happens when the Fed isn't expected to hike anymore?
18:58
[SPEAKER_01]: What happens when, you know, bond yields aren't as high and the tech sectors doing better, and what happens when there's better crypto regulation and the Clarity Act isn't failing to pass, like everything that could be happening is getting thrown in it, and it's still holding value and appreciating for the most part, what happens when a lot of these things turn over, because it can't stay like that forever, and I think that that's when Bitcoin really starts to thrive again, and you see it run.
19:25
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, again, you know, I think the bears need to count their days here to you though.
19:28
[SPEAKER_01]: And this is just another point towards that is this chart that you have in front of us saying, hey, what happens after midterms is it's usually bullish.
19:37
[SPEAKER_01]: My viewpoint on this is that I think it doesn't matter.
19:40
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, stocks, crypto, whatever, right, we're here to talk about crypto.
19:43
[SPEAKER_01]: I think we reach Max Payne before midterms.
19:46
[SPEAKER_01]: That's my stance around there.
19:48
[SPEAKER_01]: I think after that, you go into the lame duck session, you get some certainty.
19:52
[SPEAKER_01]: I think you
19:54
[SPEAKER_01]: and
19:56
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that you, we put ourselves in a much better spot.
19:59
[SPEAKER_01]: So that's kind of my stance here.
20:01
[SPEAKER_01]: Is that going into the end of the year?
20:02
[SPEAKER_01]: I think it can be better.
20:03
[SPEAKER_01]: I would like to see us reach Max Payne before midterms.
20:07
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that there's a real chance of that happening.
20:09
[SPEAKER_01]: Of course, there's never a certainty.
20:10
[SPEAKER_01]: But yeah, I mean, a lot of things to consider, man.
20:14
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know what else can be thrown at Bitcoin here, right?
20:17
[SPEAKER_01]: Other than maybe the markets continue to crash, maybe all the things I said, maybe they just continue to get worse.
20:22
[SPEAKER_01]: But other than that, I'm not sure what else
20:26
[SPEAKER_01]: to try to throw Bitcoin a curveball because it's weathered most of them pretty well so far.
20:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's a it's a great point.
20:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I think there's one more event that on a macro level that we're going to watch out for and cover and then we're going to jump right into the crypto stuff, but anthropic files, it's S1, so that this thing is is common public, uh, takeers going to be A&T, uh, and that's going to happen.
20:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I believe in the end of November.
20:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So it'll be something to cover something to watch and that's going to kind of gauge the liquidity and interest in this very much going to be on par for possibly the biggest IPO ever with SpaceX.
21:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So something that we're going to cover and something that we did cover as we transition into into crypto and I want to hand this off to you, we're almost we're a week from when we recorded our AeroPod last week and put it out and then we're going to be a week from
21:17
[SPEAKER_00]: the merge slash launch and there's some awesome awesome stats coming out from from the arrow team after that launch so congratulations to them and then obviously another reminder to go back and listen to that episode if you haven't but Brendan have you been seeing these arrows stats very interesting
21:35
[SPEAKER_01]: I have it's funny we had a moment on the podcast where I was like a little bit shocked I was like you guys are doing something like 60% just under 60% of tokenized stock trading volume like you guys have 60% market share in that and
21:51
[SPEAKER_01]: He was like, well, I think it's funny that you find that surprising.
21:53
[SPEAKER_01]: And I was like, well, I just expected there to be a bit more of a fight, right?
21:57
[SPEAKER_01]: I expected some of these other players to put up a little bit more of a fight.
22:02
[SPEAKER_01]: And it just isn't.
22:03
[SPEAKER_01]: It's been pretty one-sided and they continue to grow when it comes to this.
22:09
[SPEAKER_01]: And so,
22:10
[SPEAKER_01]: You know, obviously you guys, you know, we like Eric Jones.
22:12
[SPEAKER_01]: We've had him on the pod before we've talked about him, friend of the podcast, but we like him because of what they've done.
22:19
[SPEAKER_01]: Right.
22:19
[SPEAKER_01]: We're not just saying, oh, we like him.
22:21
[SPEAKER_01]: And there's no stats to back it.
22:23
[SPEAKER_01]: We've been talking about these guys since before launch, since they're after launch.
22:27
[SPEAKER_01]: all this stuff, and they continue to do well, and in this new stage, they're expanding, right, to a bunch of different chains, Ethereum main chain.
22:35
[SPEAKER_01]: They're expanding to Robin Hood chain.
22:37
[SPEAKER_01]: They're expanding to, I think, arbitrow an optimism in a handful of these other ones.
22:43
[SPEAKER_01]: and they are just doing really, really well.
22:46
[SPEAKER_01]: I, Tivo, I went through and I just did a tutorial video of their new platform.
22:52
[SPEAKER_01]: It went from just being able to do base and I went over and I used and made swaps and I traded on the new error drum platform and it was so smooth.
23:04
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't want to overglace them, but again, truly on my experience, I thought it was so smooth.
23:08
[SPEAKER_01]: You could do cross chain swaps.
23:10
[SPEAKER_01]: I could even trade tokenized stocks over there, looking at Apple and Microsoft and Nvidia.
23:16
[SPEAKER_01]: a handful of others.
23:18
[SPEAKER_01]: I think AMD was on there.
23:20
[SPEAKER_01]: And you could treat tokenized stops stocks directly from the decks as well.
23:24
[SPEAKER_01]: So I could do, you know, same chain swaps.
23:26
[SPEAKER_01]: I could swap in the new chains.
23:28
[SPEAKER_01]: I could do cross chain, you know, from a theory of main chain to base, base to Robinhood chain, whatever.
23:35
[SPEAKER_01]: And then also trade stocks.
23:36
[SPEAKER_01]: So
23:37
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm excited, dude, I think they are taking over and they're doing a good job when it comes to this and they're very bullish on the tokenization side of things.
23:46
[SPEAKER_01]: So, I like that, what else you got?
23:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, just it looks like the the race is on, you know, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh,
24:11
[SPEAKER_00]: for the number one buying opportunity during this dip Bryce Brendan the entire team put in a ton of research and Bryce is going to be giving a presentation this Thursday on it so you know as Brendan showed you on the charts a little bit of a correction here but as we just covered with arrow and all these other projects there is a lot of opportunities so if you're interested in
24:32
[SPEAKER_00]: and getting the research and learning what our team has found for the number one opportunity to buy the dip.
24:37
[SPEAKER_00]: Go out, check the link below.
24:38
[SPEAKER_00]: It's going to be a live presentation with Bryce on Thursday, worth checking out.
24:43
[SPEAKER_00]: But again, you can see here, Uniswap Arrow.
24:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Pancake Swaps still doing it, man.
24:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Pancake Swaps still there.
24:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I remember when we I always joke about how
24:51
[SPEAKER_00]: We had the interview with the Pancake team, like Mr. Sarah, or whatever, and he wouldn't show his face, and now, you know, we go to, you know, conferences like the time we're interviewing former CFTC chairman's all within, you know, three years time.
25:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I always find that a fun story to tell.
25:10
[SPEAKER_00]: We got some new products coming out here.
25:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought this one was interesting on a Franklin Templeton launching this 95% stock 5% Bitcoin and the stock dividends are going to be a go into Bitcoin.
25:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It's kind of an actively reinvested there.
25:26
[SPEAKER_00]: One track CSB500, the other tracks, the NASDAQ 100.
25:29
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought that was a cool product.
25:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Always interesting to see what people are building in the space when it comes to the ETFs.
25:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought this was a unique one.
25:37
[SPEAKER_01]: yeah.
25:38
[SPEAKER_01]: There's a lot of new products that are out there.
25:42
[SPEAKER_01]: What was it?
25:43
[SPEAKER_01]: A couple of weeks ago we were talking about this triple-everage products that we're coming out of.
25:48
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, I got to be careful those.
25:51
[SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, got to be careful of those, but no, this one, uh, much more normal one, listen, I've excited.
25:56
[SPEAKER_01]: All right, listen, I think that it just solidifies crypto's place here, and there's going to continue to be more products.
26:04
[SPEAKER_01]: Now, why are there new products, right?
26:06
[SPEAKER_01]: I think that's the thing that needs that people need to ask them themselves.
26:10
[SPEAKER_01]: Why are there new products?
26:12
[SPEAKER_01]: It's really simple answer, because there's demand, there's demand for it.
26:16
[SPEAKER_01]: People want this, they want more of it, and so these new products are going to get built.
26:22
[SPEAKER_01]: If Franklin Templeton, who's a huge financial institution, won't point $8 trillion, they have a pretty good idea of what will make money in what people want.
26:32
[SPEAKER_01]: They wouldn't be doing that if this wasn't the case.
26:35
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think it's simple, yeah, couldn't agree more and it's not going anywhere.
26:39
[SPEAKER_00]: I thought this was cool.
26:40
[SPEAKER_00]: We got tokenized equities in the Wall Street Journal.
26:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Nice full page there.
26:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It looks like there's a tension public company.
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: You're stuck.
26:50
[SPEAKER_00]: They're tokens are problem.
26:52
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't really know exactly what the ad is for.
26:55
[SPEAKER_00]: And I didn't scan the QR code.
26:58
[SPEAKER_00]: But I thought that was interesting, a full page in the S&E 500.
27:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And then if you think crypto is not integrated into the traditional finance, this was great.
27:08
[SPEAKER_00]: You pulled this up.
27:09
[SPEAKER_00]: We got, we got CZ ringing the Nasdaq opening bell.
27:13
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the guy was in prison like a year ago, and now he's ringing the bell.
27:20
[SPEAKER_00]: Oh, crypto, crypto is not going anywhere folks.
27:23
[SPEAKER_01]: I thought this was at first.
27:25
[SPEAKER_01]: I actually thought it was AIT, though.
27:27
[SPEAKER_01]: I was looking at it as like, this has to be AI, right?
27:30
[SPEAKER_01]: And you're like, you went from being in prison.
27:33
[SPEAKER_01]: in prison a year ago, and now he's ringing the bell over at NASDAQ, and immediately I was thinking, all right, what is happening here?
27:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Can we read into this just a little bit TV?
27:46
[SPEAKER_01]: Do we need to read into this?
27:48
[SPEAKER_01]: And maybe re-examine what's happening at B&B?
27:52
[SPEAKER_01]: Are there some trades there?
27:54
[SPEAKER_01]: Are there some plays there?
27:55
[SPEAKER_01]: Is there some sort of opportunity that comes out of this?
27:58
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe some some regular Tory things get eased up towards them.
28:02
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's some connections.
28:05
[SPEAKER_01]: I don't know, right?
28:06
[SPEAKER_01]: Again, I'm theorizing here.
28:08
[SPEAKER_01]: I'm putting on the tin foil hat just a little bit.
28:11
[SPEAKER_01]: But I'm looking to end do this and I'm thinking,
28:14
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's a play around B&B.
28:16
[SPEAKER_01]: Maybe there's something over there.
28:17
[SPEAKER_01]: So I've been examining some of those opportunities.
28:20
[SPEAKER_01]: I will say B&B has been doing fairly well, right?
28:22
[SPEAKER_01]: They're not a dead chain.
28:23
[SPEAKER_01]: My any means they're fairly successful.
28:26
[SPEAKER_01]: They've been continuing to do pretty well.
28:31
[SPEAKER_01]: There's something here.
28:32
[SPEAKER_01]: That was my main thing is number one.
28:33
[SPEAKER_01]: This is funny.
28:34
[SPEAKER_01]: It's a huge shift from going in prison to ringing the bell at NASDAQ and number two I was like, all right, well, maybe there's an opportunity that could come out of this.
28:41
[SPEAKER_01]: So we'll keep you posted.
28:43
[SPEAKER_01]: Make sure you guys stay tuned.
28:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I heard some chat about being via the group chats at work.
28:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm sure it's something that we'll cover inside the community.
28:52
[SPEAKER_00]: Do the research on, because that's what our team does.
28:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Awesome week at content, that AeroPod Crush, thank you for doing that.
28:58
[SPEAKER_00]: We have another interview that went out yesterday, and we will be back on Friday, later this week with a Halloween special with Brian and Joe, to get you going on this Halloween weekend.
29:11
[SPEAKER_00]: We really appreciate everybody watching, if you could, give it a thumbs up if you're new, bottom right, and subscribe.
29:17
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk to you all later in the week, but that's all for now.
29:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Bye-bye.