Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 52 - 6/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 52 - 6/10/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Jumbo jumbo jumbo Asante sana. Hello and welcome to episode 52
0:26
of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by
0:29
Rhythm. I'm your host Josh Applebaum.
0:36
What's going on everyone? Happy Monday, but more
0:39
importantly, I am back baby, after my two week safari in
0:43
Kenya. It was the absolute greatest
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time of my life. I'm going to give you guys a
0:47
little bit of a trip breakdown, give you some highlights.
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I'm going to talk to you about Africa, why it's amazing and why
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you should make sure if it's on your bucket list that you go
0:56
visit Africa at some point in your life.
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So I'm going to tell you about my trip, the highlights, I'm
1:01
going to tell you all the crazy amazing things that I got up to
1:03
when I was in Africa and then we're going to get back to our
1:07
wheelhouse because I have missed betting on sports with you guys.
1:09
I have not sweat a game in two weeks.
1:12
I can't even recall the last time I took a two week break
1:15
from sports betting. Probably it's been over a decade
1:18
here. So I miss you guys.
1:20
It's great to be back actually tweeted out a bunch of photos
1:23
and videos for my trip. So maybe if you want to check
1:26
out my Twitter page at Josh under score insights, some
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incredible videos of lions, rhinos, elephants.
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I'm going to again tell you guys all about my trip here.
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But if you want to just see some videos and and pictures, have
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that on my Twitter feed. But aside from the Africa recap
1:41
here, I missed you. How's everybody doing?
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I do have a four pack of sweats for you guys because again, as I
1:46
mentioned, I miss betting, but I do have a four pack of sweats
1:50
including three Major League Baseball plays, including a
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couple dogs. Hopefully can bark for us with
1:54
some reverse line movement. Very contrarian.
1:57
These dogs are only getting like 1020% of bets and we do have a
2:00
kind of a pick em to fave dog to fave line move with a Juice Reel
2:04
Robo Jackson recommended bet that overlaps with our play
2:07
here, which is nice. And then I want to get back into
2:10
the NHL because we do have game two of the Stanley Cup Final
2:14
between, of course, the Edmondson Oilers and the Florida
2:16
Panthers. And I have a shots on goal prop
2:19
that really jumped out to me and I'm hoping that this team comes
2:21
out desperate and Peppers they're opposing goaltender.
2:24
So stay tuned for that on episode 52 of the all systems go
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pod back at it after a two week break.
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So again, 4 pack MLBNHL. Obviously my Boston Celtics are
2:35
looking pretty good up to O in the series and I even saw my guy
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Bill AD who does a great job running the visa newsletter.
2:42
I continue to write for visa and you can find it visaand.com.
2:45
All my sharp report articles. But he had mentioned game one.
2:47
Of course, I was in Africa. I missed it there.
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There's no I didn't watch any television.
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There's no TV's out there. There's no way to watch the game
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track the game. Internet was spotty, but I did
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notice I had a shout out in the newsletter from Villa D because
3:00
it was a fade. The trendy dog play game one of
3:02
the finals where public was all over the Mavs and the points at
3:05
the Celtics as a contrarian favorite came through.
3:07
So I appreciated that shout out from my guy Billa D but anyway,
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guys, before I get in our sweats, I need to tell you about
3:13
Africa. Now, First off, did you notice
3:16
how I started this pod? Jumbo jumbo, jumbo jumbo means
3:20
hello in Swahili. So I learned, I learned a little
3:23
bit of Swahili when I was over there, but jambo means hello.
3:27
So every time you would greet someone, Jambo, jambo, jambo.
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It was just kind of a cool way of saying hi.
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Sante Sana means thank you or thank you very much.
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So I learned a little bit of Swahili here and there, but I'll
3:38
just give you the the goods here on Africa.
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If you have never been, you need to make it a, a point in your
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life to get to Africa. Now I'm going to give you the
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one bad thing about going to Africa and then I'm going to
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tell you a million amazing great things.
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The one bad thing is the travel because Oh my God, I realize
3:54
that I am not a great long flight traveler because we had
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basically we, we left the Boston Logan airport and we had a, what
4:05
was it a 13 hour flight from Boston to Doha, Qatar.
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Then we had an 8 hour layover in Qatar where we slept on the
4:13
ground. It was like that movie The
4:15
Terminal with, with Tom Hanks. And then we had another six hour
4:18
flight from Qatar to Kenya. Now the excitement over there,
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you know, you don't really worry about the, the ride too much,
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but it was the coming back that was brutal because we also took
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some small planes from different conservancies, which a little
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bit, a little bit dicey. Everything ended up being fine.
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But 13 hours on a plane with people who are sneezing, who are
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coughing, who stink, who have no sense of any personal space, it
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was a little bit rough. I guess I, I just am not used to
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being on a 13 hour flight, but that was kind of brutal.
4:49
The layover is kind of brutal. But other than that, guys, if
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you can put up with the flight, you can put up with the travel
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you need to get to Africa. So we first flew into Nairobi.
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Nairobi is actually an up and coming city.
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It was actually, you know, pretty impressive as it's
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continuing to to kind of get upgraded over the years.
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There's been a big commitment to green energy and growth.
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And Nairobi, again, it kind of surprised me.
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It was almost like a, you know, I'm not going to call it like a
5:15
New York City, but definitely an up and coming place that I was
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pretty, pretty impressed by. But as soon as we got off the
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plane, we went to Nairobi National Park where we stayed at
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the Ulu Lodge for three days. Unbelievable.
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The food was great. You, you went over this like
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bridge from Indiana Jones where basically had to go over a river
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to get to the Ulu Lodge. But the best part of it was that
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pretty much everywhere we went, but including the Ulu Lodge,
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6:00 AM, you take a morning game drive.
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A game drive is basically you hop into a big Toyota Land
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Cruiser with no windows and no doors and you get driven around
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in the park and you're able to spot rhinos, elephants, lions,
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zebra. By the way, people say they're
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zebra. Nope.
5:59
The correct, the correct pronunciation is zebra.
6:02
Just just so you know. But we saw giraffe, all kinds of
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antelope, hippos, and millions and millions of kind of birds,
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lilac breasted rollers, Hawks. It was just amazing.
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But the crazy kind of part about Nairobi National Park is that
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Nairobi is this big sprawling city and Nairobi National Park
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is basically a it's gated, it's got lions in there, it's got
6:24
rhinos, it's got everything. But the kind of crazy thing is
6:27
you're, you're, you're standing in between like the Bush and
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basically modernity civilization.
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So when you're in the National Park, you know, you feel like it
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could be 203 hundred, 500 years ago.
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You kind of the cool thing about Africa is you lose all sense of
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time. Time really doesn't matter.
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You kind of feel almost timeless.
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It's just a incredible feeling, one of the best parts about
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being in Africa. But here I am, you know,
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standing up in our, our game drive truck pointing out rhinos
6:54
and and lions and all the great wildlife while an ostrich too,
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tons of ostrich. Those are huge birds, by the
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way. But the crazy thing is, as
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you're looking at all these amazing, all this amazing
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wildlife right over the edge, you see the city.
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So like you'll see a rhino or lion and then you look, you
7:11
know, past them and you'll see all the tall buildings the the
7:15
skyscraper. So it's just kind of really
7:17
interesting. You feel like you're almost
7:18
caught between two worlds. But Nairobi National Park was
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beautiful. The people are so welcoming and
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so friendly. Had a blast.
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Shout out to our driver Washington, who showed us a
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fantastic time. Secondly, after the Nairobi
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National Park, the Ulu Lodge, we went to Amboseli at the TOWIE
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Lodge and that was actually my favorite part of the trip.
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Beautiful grounds. Nairobi was really awesome, but
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that was you could again feel the sense of kind of modernity
7:47
and and civilization. When you got to Amboselli, you
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had to take a little plane, only like a 15 seater plane.
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But Nairobi again, next to modernity in the Bush was Tawi
7:57
Lodge and Amboselli. And Amboselli is really the
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place you got to get to Amboselli National Park.
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It's kind of right on the border with Tanzania.
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And Amboselli is where all the elephants are.
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Elephants actually couldn't be in Ulu because in the Nairobi
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National Parks, it was too small.
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It was actually like 90,000 acres, but still elephants.
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They need a bigger, wider range. But all the elephants were in
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Amboselli every single day. We saw dozens and dozens.
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We saw a herd one time of over 100.
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We counted them over 100 elephants.
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It was sprawling, massive. There was no signs of
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civilization. You're out there in the Bush and
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it was just unbelievable seeing a herd of elephants.
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I cannot, I try to tweet this out.
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I, I really can't do it justice. But when you are sitting and a
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parked Land Cruiser with the, with no doors, no windows, and
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you see a herd of, you know, 25 elephants walk right by you, you
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know, 10 feet away, they'll, they'll, they're very used to
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basically humans because they're protected.
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And Kenny does a great job of protecting their wildlife.
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Luckily, there's really no poaching at all in Kenya.
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But these elephants, you know, you like, oh, an elephant's a
9:03
big animal, right? You have no idea how beautiful
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and amazing and massive an elephant is in real life when
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it's 10 feet away from you. So we saw countless elephants.
9:12
We saw cheetah. Cheetah were very elusive, but
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we actually saw a pair of young male cheetah.
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They were hanging out on kind of like this dead branch in the
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middle of the of Amboseli. And the Tawee Lodge was so cool
9:25
because it was basically in the Bush.
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And we had a watering hole right where we would wake up and have
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breakfast every day. And we got to see elephants,
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giraffe, all kinds of different animals come to the watering
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hole. We even spent the day visiting
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the Maasai people. So the Maasai are the local
9:42
villagers or the villages that the Maasai people, you know,
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they're nomadic. Actually, they kind of move
9:47
based upon the seasons. And one thing you got to know
9:49
about Africa is they're, they have two very distinct seasons.
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They have kind of the, the, the rainy season and the dry season.
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So we got there right after the rainy season had ended.
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It was transitioning from rainy to basically the dry and
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everything was so lush and beautiful.
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Just fields and fields of, of, of grasses.
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There's also an African basil every time we drove over it
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because literally sometimes there's no roads.
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You, you're literally going in the Bush would kind of release
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this just amazing smell of this African basil and really just
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being in the Bush. Staying at Tawee Lodge.
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I, I'm not a big TripAdvisor guy, but I had to go on
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TripAdvisor and leave some incredible reviews.
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One cool thing about Tawee Lodge too, is every time you would go
10:31
on a game drive. So as I mentioned, you wake up,
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you know, 5:00 AM. I'm not a morning riser, but you
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know when you're in Africa, you know when in Rome kind of thing.
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But wake up early with a great breakfast.
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You jump in the, the, the, the Land Cruiser at like 5 AM, 6:00
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AM, right when the sun is rising.
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That's all the animals are starting to wake up.
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But every time you'd have a game drive in the morning or at
10:54
night, every time you come back, everyone's greeting you, Jambo,
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Jambo, asking about your trip. Everyone is so friendly and
11:00
nice. As an American, you, you, you
11:03
really felt the love there in Kenya.
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But when you'd walk back, every time you'd enter the TOWIE
11:08
lodge, they would say Jambo, Jambo and they asked about your
11:11
day and they'd give you a basically a moist wet kind of
11:15
rag or towel scented. And when you're in the Bush in
11:19
the heat, it actually wasn't too hot there, which was good for me
11:22
'cause I can't stand the heat. But you, you get that wet towel,
11:25
you kind of, you put it over your face, you cool down, then
11:29
you come and hang out. And I, I had a lot of, I drank a
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lot of Big Tusker Kenyan Lager when I was there.
11:34
But that was just a really cool thing that they did, aside from
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the elephants, which were amazing at the Tawee Lodge and
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and Amboselli, again, remember Amboselli, you got to get there.
11:44
That's where all the elephants are.
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The last leg of our trip we went to Oipajeta Conservancy.
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So basically conservancies are kind of areas that are set aside
11:53
specifically for wildlife, whether it's the locals who
11:56
manage them or farmers. The other thing in Kenya is like
11:59
pretty much everyone is a farmer where they have cattle or they
12:02
have goats or they have sheep and basically that's where they
12:07
make their money as farmers, but everything is free ranging.
12:10
Like in terms of like the cattle, they're just amongst the
12:13
wildlife there basically. But the cool thing when we got
12:17
to Oipajetta was the rhinos and the and the lions.
12:20
So Oipajetta Massive Conservancy protected and we actually worked
12:25
with the Oipajetta Rhino monitoring service and we
12:29
learned how to identify rhinos based on the notches in their
12:32
ears. They even called in on the Radio
12:34
One of the because they got to track them each day.
12:36
If they don't see a rhino over I think a four day period, then
12:40
they have to go find that rhino and make sure that it's alive
12:43
and you know, doing well. We got to see rhinos close up.
12:46
There's actually two different kinds of rhinos, the black rhino
12:49
and the white rhino. So the black rhino is a little
12:51
more elusive, a little more aggressive.
12:53
They're a little bit harder to find.
12:54
The white rhinos are bigger and they kind of travel.
12:58
Black rhinos are solitary. White rhinos are kind of in
13:01
groups, They call them crack a crash of rhino and we're able to
13:05
track them. The one amazing thing, but it
13:08
was really sad and depressing, is at the Oipu Jetta
13:10
Conservancy, we saw the last two remaining northern white rhinos,
13:15
Najin and Fatu, literally the last two on Earth.
13:18
They've been poached to extinction.
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There's only two left. They're basically protected
13:23
24/7, but you're literally saw the last two of their kind.
13:28
So they're hoping that maybe through artificial insemination,
13:31
they one of, from one of the earlier rhinos, they took some
13:35
sperm and eggs from a different one and they're going to try to
13:38
keep the species going. Hopefully that works out.
13:40
But rhino's massive, amazing creatures.
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But it was kind of sad to know that they're kind of the last of
13:45
their kind. And at Sweetwater's too, they,
13:48
they had a buffet. I was hanging out with all the,
13:51
the, the locals and I was telling them about sports
13:54
betting and talking to them about, you know, what life in
13:57
America is like. But really the, the thing that I
13:59
have to stress to you guys is that there's a feeling you get
14:02
when you're in Africa. It's unmatched.
14:04
It's just you, you feel like all the things and I'll, I'll be
14:08
honest with you guys, like first 75% of my trip, I'm like, I
14:12
don't want to go home. I want to stay here forever.
14:15
Last leg of the trip, I missed the Internet, I missed air
14:17
conditioning. You know, you missed things as
14:19
a, as a first world American, I guess some of the luxuries, but
14:24
really all the little insignificant things that you
14:27
think are bringing you down it it all, it all floats away in
14:30
Africa. That's why you got to get to
14:32
Africa. If you like wildlife, that's
14:33
your number one reason to go to Africa.
14:35
But the vibe, the feeling you get looking out, seeing a lion.
14:40
We had a, an, an incredible night drive we had where we
14:44
actually saw basically, I felt like I was tripping out in
14:47
basically a National Geographic episode, but there was a
14:51
basically a huge herd of Cape Buffalo and around the Cape
14:55
Buffalo. This is actually kind of sad,
14:57
but there was a Cape Buffalo mom who just gave birth to a calf.
15:00
I used to work on a farm growing up.
15:02
So it reminded me of some of the, the milk cows we used to
15:04
deal with. But there was a group of hyena
15:07
circling, wanting to eat the baby Cape Buffalo was just born.
15:11
And as we're kind of like, oh, oh, oh, we're going to see
15:14
circle of life here. There's going to be gruesome.
15:16
A male lion comes roaring through and fights off basically
15:19
the hyenas. And we didn't actually see them
15:22
kill the baby Cape Buffalo, but the next morning they told us
15:26
that the lion did take the baby, which again, I'm kind of glad
15:30
that I missed there. But what I'm getting at is you
15:32
like wildlife. It just, I can't describe to
15:35
you. I'm trying to do my best and I
15:37
really can't do it justice. But when you're in the Bush,
15:40
when you don't see anything but wildlife and the beauty, we're
15:44
actually right below Kilimanjaro, Mount Kilimanjaro,
15:49
which is just absolutely massive.
15:51
We even got to see the snow at the very top.
15:53
But it just feels like all your worries wipe away.
15:56
You have this sense of where you stand in the universe and where
15:59
you stand as you know when you're next to a, a lion who
16:03
could rip you apart or a rhino who could crush you or an
16:06
elephant who could swat you like a bug.
16:09
You kind of feel your sense in life and your sense in the
16:12
universe. And it's just a great feeling.
16:14
And I, again, I can't do it justice, but I wanted to at
16:17
least give you a little bit of insight into my trip and if you
16:20
have any questions. If you ever want to go to
16:22
Africa, Kenya definitely is a place you got to get to.
16:25
I'd be happy to guide you in the right direction, recommend some
16:27
places to you. But if you've been to Africa,
16:29
you know what I'm saying. If not, I highly recommend it.
16:32
Again, your money goes a long way over there.
16:33
The American dollar versus the Kenyan shilling, That's a pretty
16:36
good conversion rate. So Long story short, check my
16:39
Twitter page for some photos and videos at Josh under score
16:43
insights. But it was the trip of a life
16:44
lifetime. It did not disappoint.
16:46
The travel was rough, not going to lie.
16:48
I watched like 10 movies on the on the flight across across the
16:53
the world basically. But you got to get to Africa,
16:55
make it a bucket list trip. When you were out there in the
16:58
Bush and you see a lion or an elephant or rhino, it's, it's
17:03
the best feeling in the world. So Long story short, I give it a
17:07
5 star review, 2 thumbs up, 10 out of 10 A10.
17:13
It was the absolute best. So get to get to Africa, go to
17:16
Kenya and I'm glad to be back here doing what I love, which is
17:20
sports betting. So that being said, after a
17:22
quick review on Africa, I guess I rambled on a little bit too
17:24
long. Let's get back into our group
17:26
'cause I haven't sweat a game in over two weeks.
17:29
So let's see if we can get back at it and and score some some
17:32
winning some winning bets here for tonight.
17:34
So let's start off with some Major League Baseball.
17:36
How you guys been doing last couple weeks with MLBI?
17:39
Have 3 bets for you. So first one on the board, I'm
17:41
going to take a shot on kind of a line, freeze, reverse line
17:43
move on a very, very contrarian dog.
17:46
Baltimore, Tampa Bay, 6:50 PM Eastern Time.
17:49
Orioles come in 42 and 22. I have their over 89 and F win
17:53
total. So good for me to keep winning.
17:55
But they've taken the first three games of this four-game
17:58
series. They won the opener six to
17:59
three. They're -120 Rd. favorite.
18:01
They won the second Game 5, nothing as a -, 150 Rd.
18:04
favorite. And they won again yesterday,
18:06
9:00 to 2:00 as a -, 135 road favorite.
18:08
So for tonight's series finale, the 4th and final game of the
18:11
series, Orioles are going with Rady Corbin Burns, six and two,
18:15
2.26 ERA, The Rays 31 and 34. They're going with Ryan Peppiot,
18:20
who's four and two with a 3.96 ERA.
18:23
So I kind of hinted at this, but I'm going to, I'm going to hold
18:25
my nose and take the unpopular bet here.
18:27
I'm going to take Tampa Bay and the plus money.
18:28
I'll give you a reason why. This game opened the Baltimore
18:31
Orioles around a -, 155 road favorite.
18:34
The Orioles are a huge public play today.
18:37
Easiest bet, Lay it with the Orioles.
18:39
They've won three straight. They'll sweep better record
18:41
raise of struggle this year. That's what the public's saying.
18:44
Nearly 90% of bets are on Baltimore.
18:47
However, despite 9 out of 10 bets on Baltimore, they open
18:50
-155 they're down to -150 -, 145.
18:54
I see one book, you know -142 So why is the line falling away
18:59
from Baltimore if they're getting a big majority of bets,
19:02
if they're the popular play tells me we got some smart money
19:04
grabbing Tampa Bay in the plus money here, having this line
19:08
drop toward the Tampa Bay Rays. Rays are super contrary and
19:11
again, only getting around 10% of bets.
19:13
They also have some classic divisional dog value.
19:15
So built in familiarity. You know your opponent, you're
19:18
playing quite a bit as a divisional dog levels the
19:20
playing field benefits A-Team getting that plus money.
19:23
I would lean under a bit here. I was intrigued by the under
19:26
seven and a half. 7 1/2 is really juiced up under -120
19:29
looks like it may be dropping to seven at some shops.
19:31
Only 20% bets but 45% dollars are on that under so pretty good
19:36
bet split. So to lean under you of course
19:38
have the the closed roof or Dome stadium where ball doesn't
19:43
really travel. Lack of weather, good fielding
19:44
conditions. I'll lean under but I am going
19:47
to take some plus money with Tampa Bay here.
19:49
Shop around. I got Tampa Bay at plus 125.
19:53
Keep on cruising. Another dog for you.
19:55
This is a line freeze dog, New York Yankees and the Kansas City
19:59
Royals. This is the opener of a
20:00
three-game set Yankees 46 and 21.
20:03
Looks like since I left and came back from Africa, they continue
20:06
to have a great record. If you're a Yankee fan, even
20:09
though I'm a Red Sox fan, but they Jeff did just drop two out
20:12
of three against the Dodgers. They avoided a sweep, however,
20:15
with a six to four win on Sunday.
20:16
They won as a + 115 home dog on Sunday night Baseball.
20:20
Mention that in a second. I'm going to get back to that
20:21
why that's notable. But for tonight's series opener,
20:24
lefty Carlos Rodon is going for the Yankees.
20:27
He's eight and two with a three-point O 8 ERA.
20:29
The Royals, meanwhile, are going with ready Seth Lugo, who's been
20:32
unbelievable nine and one 2.13 ERA.
20:36
So what have we seen across the market here?
20:38
Well, the Yankees open around a -, 130 Rd. favorite and the
20:41
public says ride the Yankees. You're getting New York, one of
20:44
the best records in baseball. I don't know if it's them or the
20:47
Phillies at this point. I got to double check.
20:48
I've been out of the loop here a little bit, but we're getting
20:51
Yankees great team at just -130 Hey, lay it, play the Yankees in
20:55
this one. However, despite nearly 70% of
20:58
bets going Yankees, Yankees open -130 they pretty much stayed
21:01
-130 and some shops even dipped a little bit down to like -125
21:06
So this is what we call a line freeze.
21:07
Line freezes when you have heavy, heavy betting one side,
21:10
but the line really doesn't move at all.
21:11
So if Yankees are getting 70%, they open -130 you would think
21:15
they'd be up to -140 -, 145 - 150.
21:19
Normally when you're getting such heavy support, the line
21:22
will be adjusted in your favor. Oddsmakers will move the number
21:25
to make it a more expensive price to back the popular side.
21:28
Also to move the number on the dog and make it more appealing
21:31
to to play the dog. That hasn't happened.
21:33
Even though you have such heavy, heavy betting on the Yankees
21:37
really line hasn't budged at all.
21:38
So that tells me we have some liability here on the Kansas
21:41
City Royals, which is the big reason why I am going to take
21:44
the Royals and some plus money here.
21:45
I got the Royals at around plus 110, but aside from a line
21:49
freeze, some good correlative betting dog high total.
21:52
So total on this one is 8 1/2. Why is that important?
21:55
Because when you're on a dog, you want more expected run
21:58
scored leads to more variants, more upset opportunities.
22:01
Basically, it's a it's a benefit to have a dog high total versus
22:05
a favorite and a low total. Now you look at Kansas City in
22:08
particular, they've really raked against lefties.
22:11
Kansas City is hitting 274 against southpaws this year.
22:13
That's the third best in Major League Baseball.
22:15
And then one last little angle here is fading teams who played
22:19
on Sunday night baseball. This is an angle that if you've
22:22
been with me for years and years on end, this is a back in the
22:25
day, a sports insights, my first job in the industry, kind of a
22:28
sports insights play, but fading the Sunday night baseball team
22:31
whole thought process there is it's kind of a rest.
22:33
First tired, you play on Sunday night baseball, you have a late
22:36
night, then you got to travel, turn around the next day and
22:39
play again. Kansas City, meanwhile, they
22:40
were at home and play the afternoon game.
22:43
So they're rested, didn't have to travel.
22:44
The Yankees are tired late night and have to travel.
22:46
So I want to bet against the Yankees in that spot.
22:49
We had it all up here, guys. Whole point being everyone's
22:51
betting Yankees, yet Lions either stay the same or even dip
22:54
slightly toward Kansas City. I'm taking some plus money with
22:57
KC. I got KC at plus 110.
23:00
Keep on cruising. Last bet of the night, Major
23:02
League Baseball, three overall, trying to get two out of three.
23:05
Let's look toward the Toronto Blue Jays and the Milwaukee Brew
23:10
Crew now. This is the opener of a
23:11
three-game interleague series. The Blue Jays 32 and 33 did just
23:15
take two of three against the A's.
23:17
They won yesterday. Series finale six to four in
23:19
extra innings as a -, 135 road favorite.
23:22
Meanwhile, the Brew Crew 38 and 27.
23:24
They just took two or three against the Tigers but could not
23:27
complete the sweep. They lost the finale yesterday
23:31
1:50 as a + 145 road dog. So pitching match up for
23:34
tonight, we have the Toronto Blue Jays going with Jose
23:37
Barrios, the righty five and four. 2.8 OERA.
23:41
He'll be opposed by Colin Ray four and two with a 3.53 ERA.
23:45
So what have we seen across the market here?
23:48
Well, either a dog to fave or a pick em to fave line.
23:51
Move in favor of the beer makers.
23:54
Let's make some beer tonight. I'm on the brew crew.
23:56
This game opened basically Toronto, a very slight -110 -,
24:01
115 favorite. Now we flipped all the way to
24:04
Milwaukee -115 I even see one shot maybe going up towards -120
24:09
toward Milwaukee. So whether it's a pick em to a
24:11
favorite or a dog to a favorite, this line has only gone in One
24:15
Direction toward Milwaukee. Now the Brewers are getting
24:19
around 67% of bets, almost 70% of dollars.
24:22
So both a pro and Joe bet split here on Milwaukee.
24:26
Milwaukee also I'm going to bank on the fact that they have the
24:28
better bats 13257 on the year versus 233 for Toronto.
24:33
Much better bullpen as well. Milwaukee has a bullpen ERA of
24:36
3.34 versus 4.88 for Toronto. Toronto has one of the worst
24:40
bullpens. Jose Brios has been good all
24:42
year, but at home 1.82 ERA on the road 3.76.
24:47
He's on the road here for tonight and a couple good system
24:50
matches with Milwaukee. One would be a favorite with a
24:52
winning record off a loss playing a below 500 team.
24:56
That system is 83 and 5461% with a 6% ROI.
25:00
This year we have seen this total fall open to 8 1/2.
25:03
It's down to 8. Remember the system we came up
25:05
with a few weeks ago when you see the total fall, that's good
25:09
correlative betting toward the favorite because fear amount of
25:11
expected run scored more likely to come from the favorite.
25:14
But when the total falls, least 1/2 run favorites are 197 and
25:18
one 3160% this year, about a 2% ROI.
25:21
So I'm going to take a shot here on the Brew Crew again, dog to
25:25
fave, pick them to fave. This line's going toward
25:27
Milwaukee. Seems like a pretty decent price
25:29
on the Brew Crew at home. I got Milwaukee at -115 so
25:34
Tampa, KC, Milwaukee. Can we get two out of three?
25:37
I'll also mention Juice Reel does a fantastic job of helping
25:41
betters win. If you haven't done it yet, you
25:43
should definitely download the Juice Reel app Juice Reel is
25:46
great for basically basically syncing up your sports book apps
25:50
to Juice Reel. So when you make a bet and
25:52
FanDuel or DraftKings or bet MGM or whatever book ESPN bet you
25:56
use, you bet it in that book. Once you've synced up, it'll
25:58
automatically submit that pick your best bet or your bet over
26:03
to the Juice Reel app. Then you can track your
26:04
performance, learn about yourself as a better.
26:07
Obviously they have a a great job here with their robo Jackson
26:10
picks with their their AI bot generated plays.
26:13
And actually tonight they do have a a bet on Milwaukee.
26:16
So I like the fact that the robo Jackson AI backed pick master is
26:21
on Milwaukee just as we are here from a market based perspective.
26:25
Also, you have the sharp mush plays, the arbitrage plays.
26:28
Again, Juice Reel is a great app to use and to put it in a kind
26:32
of in your in your tool belt of sports betting apps.
26:35
So if you haven't done it yet, you can sign up through Juice
26:38
Reel via the custom link which is listed in the bio description
26:41
of this pod. You can also find it on my
26:43
Twitter page at Josh under score insights, but Tampa, Kansas
26:46
City, Milwaukee, so we can get two of those here for tonight
26:50
now because we have no NBA, no Celtics and Lakers that comes
26:54
back actually 2 days from now for game three as it shifts
26:57
toward Dallas. I do have a bet here on
27:00
Edmonton, Florida Game 2. So I did notice that this line
27:03
dipped away from Florida toward Edmonton a little bit.
27:06
This is game two. You had Florida take game 1/3 to
27:09
nothing, but you had Florida open around -135 -, 140.
27:14
They're down to around -130 -, 125.
27:17
So this line has dipped a little bit toward Edmonton.
27:18
If you tell me you want to take Edmonton with some plus money
27:21
plus 110, I'm not going to argue with you, but I'm going to focus
27:24
specifically and I'm going to I'm going to kind of play
27:26
Edmonton in in a different way based on a player prop, which is
27:30
a shots on goal prop. So my thought process going into
27:34
this is Edmonton's down one O Edmonton put a ton of shots on
27:38
goal in game 132 versus their opponent.
27:42
Obviously Florida only had seventeen shots on goal and yet
27:45
they could not solve Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky was great.
27:48
Shut him up 3 nothing. So Edmonton's down one O or O1,
27:52
however you want to look at it. They peppered the goalie in game
27:55
one couldn't score a single goal.
27:57
I'm thinking Edmonton basically puts more pucks on net and is in
28:01
a desperation spot, isn't going to get cute, isn't going to try
28:05
to find the perfect bat. I think that this is just, you
28:06
know, we got to find a way to get greasy goals, dirty goals.
28:09
So down 10, I think Edmonton comes out with some extra energy
28:13
here tonight. Peppers the goaltender,
28:14
Bobrovsky tries to solve Barbrovsky.
28:17
So with that in mind, I'm looking at some shot props,
28:20
shots on goal props for Edmonton.
28:22
And one in particular jumped out to me.
28:24
Leon Dry Seidel the stud, not McDavid, his running mate to
28:29
Robin, to his Batman. Over 2 1/2 shots on goal.
28:33
I'm playing dry sidle over 2 1/2 at -130 So First off, that shot
28:38
prop is juiced up to the over -130 tells us right off the bat
28:42
if we're paying a little bit more juice to take the over,
28:44
that's the side that might have some liability, might be where
28:47
the smart money's going. Maybe it, you know, inches
28:49
higher up and drifts toward three.
28:52
At least that's the direction that's trending.
28:54
So again, I was looking at juice when I'm looking at props,
28:56
especially when it comes to NFL, which rhythm can't wait for the
29:00
NFL props for rhythm when the season returns here.
29:03
But anyway, juiced up over shots on goal, dry settle in game one,
29:07
he had four. He has gone over 2 1/2 shots on
29:11
goal in 13 of 19 playoff games. So he's gone over two and a
29:16
half, 13 and 613 times. Only six times he hasn't.
29:20
It's a pretty good, pretty good, you know, kind of, you know,
29:23
kind of back score movement or liability toward that over.
29:28
So the guy has peppered the the goal in general.
29:30
Now. He had 23 minutes and 14 seconds
29:33
of time on ice in game one. So again, if you're betting an
29:36
offensive got to go over any kind of prop, you want him to be
29:39
out there a lot. So he has a lot of opportunity
29:41
because he's on the ice a ton. He's had 2330 of ice time in the
29:45
postseason. That's the second most of any
29:48
forward on the team. Only McDavid has more.
29:51
He's also tied for second on the team in shots in the postseason
29:55
with 61. Right there with McDavid and
29:59
again, the whole thought process is, you know, down O1, pepper
30:02
the net, try to get some goals, try to even the series up.
30:05
The other thing with dry subtle, he gets a ton of power play
30:07
time. So power play again, when you're
30:10
down an opponent's down a guy, it's easier to get shots on goal
30:13
be added. All up, you have a juiced up
30:15
over 2 1/2 -, 130. He's gone over this number in 13
30:19
of 19 games. Ton of time on ice, second on
30:22
the team in shots. I'm going to play dry Seidel
30:24
over 2 1/2 shots on goal at -130 for tonight.
30:29
Well, that about does it for episode 52 of the All Systems Go
30:32
Sports Betting podcast. I miss saying that it's been a
30:35
hot minute here, but it is great to be back, of course, if you
30:39
enjoy this pod. Did you miss the pod?
30:41
I miss you guys. Did you miss the pod?
30:43
Because again, I love the fact that you've kind of created
30:45
this. I always joke about pulling up a
30:48
chair to the virtual bar, you know, talking sharp line moves
30:51
because I feel like as sports betting is exploding and
30:54
legalizing in more states, a lot of hot takes, a lot of opinions.
30:57
I don't hear a lot of data-driven betting betting
30:59
analysis. So hopefully that is this is
31:01
your refuge to get some sharp analysis from a data-driven
31:05
perspective. But anyway, if you enjoy the
31:07
pod, if you miss the pod, you know what I would love for you
31:11
to help me grow this pod organically.
31:13
Recommend this pod to a friend, whether it's a colleague, Co
31:16
worker, family member, someone who's into sports betting but
31:18
doesn't know where to begin. If you could recommend the pod,
31:21
but more importantly, could you please give this podcast a 5
31:24
star review? It would really be it great if
31:26
you do a 5 star review on Spotify or iTunes.
31:30
We just added it to YouTube before I left for Africa.
31:32
But give it a 5 star review would really mean a lot to me.
31:35
Help us grow this pod. Best way to do it is coming from
31:39
you guys who listen to the pod. Of course, if you also enjoy
31:42
this pod, maybe you want to learn more about data-driven
31:44
sports betting and guess what? I wrote a book to help you in
31:48
that regard. It's called the everything Guide
31:50
to Sports betting. So just go to Amazon.com, type
31:52
in the everything guide to sports betting, pick up a copy
31:55
for you or for a friend. It's got everything I learned in
31:57
the industry, how lines are set, how and why they move, how to
32:00
read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
32:02
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
32:05
how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
32:08
the Everything guide to Sports betting.
32:09
So go to Amazon, pick one up when I see at the book, I'm
32:12
going to buy you a beer. If you don't drink, I'll buy you
32:14
a ginger ale and I'll sign the copy of your book and we'll
32:17
sweat some games at the at the book with my book as a I don't
32:21
know, kind of a fun, no pun intended, I guess kind of kind
32:26
of angle there. But anyway, that about does it
32:29
as of course, if you haven't done it yet, I would highly
32:31
recommend not only downloading the juice reel app, but also
32:34
download rhythm, because rhythm does a great job of powering
32:37
this app. I actually saw some tweets
32:40
rhythm with Hardy on The Mavericks, who they kept
32:43
highlighting with a good rhythm edge player prop to his over
32:46
points and he I think he's hit like six straight or seven
32:48
straight. So good job for rhythm algorithm
32:51
does great, a great job with game back pics and props.
32:53
You can follow their recommended AI driven bets or you can create
32:56
your own systems. But if you haven't done it yet,
32:59
go download rhythm. You can just again use that
33:01
custom link that is located in the bio description of this
33:04
podcast, but that about does it. Another pod here in the books.
33:08
It's great to be back. I miss Africa, but as they say,
33:10
all good things must come to an end.
33:12
The trip of a lifetime. You got to make it out there,
33:14
guys. It's unbelievable.
33:16
It's incredible. Again, if you can deal with the
33:18
travel, no pain, no gain I guess, but it was a trip for
33:22
lifetime and boy did it not disappoint.
33:24
Anyway, guys, great to be back. My parting words as always,
33:28
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
33:31
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan
33:33
Sundown in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge
33:36
Park Casino or MGM Springfield on my neck of the woods in in
33:40
New England or of course, out in the desert where the true
33:42
grinders get down or Billy Walters sends his number runners
33:45
with lowest use possible is found the South Point or
33:48
sweating sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool
33:51
when you are when you're out at circa wherever it may be, you're
33:55
going to walk up to me. It's been a while.
33:57
I haven't cashed a bet in a while because I haven't made a
33:58
bet in a while. But hopefully you're going to
34:00
show me a winning ticket. All those winning tickets that I
34:02
know you cashed while I was away.
34:05
Maybe a fade the trendy dog playing the Celtics in game one.
34:08
But that about does it guys, remember, of course, always
34:10
remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian.
34:12
Bet against the public. Place yourself on the side of
34:14
the house. Always be with the smart money,
34:16
never against it. Well, smart money won every
34:18
time. Of course not because again,
34:21
it's always that marathon, not a Sprint.
34:23
You can always have a one off, get lucky unlucky.
34:25
But if you consistently play those data-driven bets against
34:28
the public with the house, with the pros flatbed, avoid parlays,
34:31
get some CLV. If you can do that long term,
34:33
you're going to be a winning sports better.
34:35
So it's great to be back. Everyone, thank you for all your
34:37
tweets and well wishes. I survived.
34:39
I wasn't trampled by a by an elephant.
34:41
I wasn't eaten by a lion, but I miss Africa.
34:45
But I am I am. I'm glad to be back.
34:46
I'm excited to do what I love the most as much as I love the
34:50
wildlife in Africa. You know, my number one passion
34:52
is sports playing. So it's good to get back to
34:54
doing something that I love. But I hope you had a great
34:56
couple weeks. We're going to talk a lot of
34:59
baseball every day. We're going to hopefully have a
35:01
good end to NBA and NHL will be some WNBA might get into that
35:06
here shortly. But it's the, I guess you can
35:08
call it the dog days of summer. Maybe not quite there yet, but
35:11
it's great to be back with you sweating some games.
35:13
So enjoy your sweats tonight again, see if we can catch some
35:16
of these tickets, get a couple baseball winners, hopefully dry
35:19
Sidle goes over and then we'll be back at it tomorrow for
35:22
episode 53 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
35:26
by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
35:28
great Monday night.