Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | USDA & Cattle | War & Weather

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | USDA & Cattle | War & Weather · AG Bull

0:09
SPEAKER_00: Happy Sunday, everyone.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: Wiesmeyer has me up early on a Sunday, and I'm here from my living room in Valparaiso, Indiana.
0:16
SPEAKER_00: We're doing construction on our studio in the basement, and we have two, three, three W's to talk to you about today.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: War, Weather, and Wiesmeyer.
0:28
SPEAKER_00: Enjoy the show.
1:06
SPEAKER_00: I had to unmute your microphone.
1:08
SPEAKER_00: All right.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: You got your shark shirt on.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: You feeling like a shark today?
1:13
SPEAKER_01: I wish.
1:13
SPEAKER_01: Well, we're gonna have to see.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: I had a big I had a busy Saturday on a photo shoot to get ready for our new internet site coming up.
1:22
SPEAKER_01: And so I was uh pixeled all over the place yesterday in different scores.
1:26
SPEAKER_00: Dear Lord, that 4K adds a couple pounds.
1:28
SPEAKER_00: We don't need that.
1:29
SPEAKER_00: Um the uh we got some serious things going on war, weather, and Mr.
1:35
SPEAKER_00: Jim.
1:35
SPEAKER_00: But before we get into that, we we're changing the platform.
1:39
SPEAKER_00: Obviously, folks can go to agbull.com and they could see all your stuff.
1:43
SPEAKER_00: They just go under the Wees Meyer tab.
1:46
SPEAKER_00: And with that, you're gonna have your own tab.
1:48
SPEAKER_00: So we have AgBull.com.
1:50
SPEAKER_00: All Jim stuff's on there.
1:52
SPEAKER_00: It's archived, it's free to the public.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: Go get it.
1:55
SPEAKER_00: But we're changing the way we do things because technology's changed, and we're gonna have the ability to start texting people your news alerts.
2:04
SPEAKER_00: And I want you to talk a little bit about that, Jim.
2:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because eventually, well, we'll take care of our legacy readers.
2:11
SPEAKER_01: I've had a number of readers with me for many years.
2:15
SPEAKER_01: Now they'll uh when we do go to the new system, we'll take care of them and more on that later.
2:21
SPEAKER_01: But for the text messages, it it's it's clear that when people get text messages, they're more an alert because they don't read their emails right away.
2:32
SPEAKER_01: Uh, even though I send my you know daily letter out now via email, going that next step in the text messages is just another signal that things have changed, Tommy.
2:45
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, tremendously, Jim.
2:46
SPEAKER_00: And in in my industry, when markets are moving, I text people out.
2:51
SPEAKER_00: So I can text all my I have two sets of clients.
2:53
SPEAKER_00: I have Agble Trading Clients that we do our business through NASVIC, and then I have Agble Intel clients.
2:58
SPEAKER_00: A lot of my clients on the AgBull Intel side are not brokerage clients.
3:03
SPEAKER_00: Mine, they're actually brokerage clients of various different brokers, and they're totally happy over there.
3:08
SPEAKER_00: But they want, you know what they want and they like?
3:11
SPEAKER_00: They like that we work Sundays when their brokers out on the boat.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: Jim and I are working.
3:15
SPEAKER_00: Maybe we're fools, but I tell you something, folks.
3:18
SPEAKER_00: Here's the deal sometimes freeze too expensive, and Mr.
3:22
SPEAKER_00: Jim's gonna slowly move his newsletter over to a paid service.
3:26
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be so affordable, you spill more gas than this service is gonna cost.
3:31
SPEAKER_00: But texting, compliance, lawyers, websites, all this stuff has a cost.
3:37
SPEAKER_00: So if you're a friend of Jim's and you want to get in on the legacy program, go ahead and go over to the uh Ag Bull website, AG Bull.com.
3:45
SPEAKER_00: Go under contact us and say, I want to subscribe to Jim's free newsletter.
3:50
SPEAKER_00: Last week we had over 15 people do that.
3:53
SPEAKER_00: That means people are watching the show, reading the show, listening to the show, Apple, Spotify, YouTube.
3:58
SPEAKER_00: Somehow people weren't subscribed to your newsletter.
4:01
SPEAKER_00: And that actually shocked me.
4:03
SPEAKER_00: When Lindsay Cunningham was like, hey, Jim, we got 15 people.
4:07
SPEAKER_00: It shocked me in a positive way.
4:09
SPEAKER_00: One, they're listening, they heard that your new service is going to go for pay for, but I can't explain to people how technology's changed, technology cost, and we want to do a better job.
4:19
SPEAKER_00: And kudos to you, Jim, at your age, and I mean your age with a compliment.
4:23
SPEAKER_00: Kudos to you that you're willing to change and innovate yourself, Jim.
4:26
SPEAKER_01: You have to.
4:27
SPEAKER_01: Challengers have changed, it's is a it's a creed.
4:30
SPEAKER_01: One of those 15 was a farmer colleague in my early years, Alan Deaver.
4:35
SPEAKER_01: I think he may be in the Ozarks now, but I know he's originally from a wheat uh farm in Kansas.
4:41
SPEAKER_01: And oh, Alan is such a warm and nice individual who used to be a wheat analyst when I first started, right out of college at Don Ag Service in St.
4:51
SPEAKER_01: Louis, and then he became the editor of the Don Agricultural Report.
4:55
SPEAKER_01: So uh tip of the hat to uh Alan Deaver, and he's now reading us, Tommy.
5:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well, that makes me happy.
5:02
SPEAKER_00: We had some other people reach out to us this week, they'll go unnamed, but thank you for watching, thank you for listening.
5:08
SPEAKER_00: As you all know, I already have my premium service that's right here.
5:12
SPEAKER_00: I got something exciting to tell you, and then we're gonna get in the show.
5:16
SPEAKER_00: Agble Intel is$25 a month,$250 annually.
5:19
SPEAKER_00: Of course, we have other shows that are still free, but this is the premium stuff.
5:23
SPEAKER_00: This is the text alerts, the emails, the morning information.
5:27
SPEAKER_00: Call the desk.
5:28
SPEAKER_00: We have five registered brokers.
5:30
SPEAKER_00: You can just call us and say, what are you boys thinking?
5:32
SPEAKER_00: Then all the extras you get are stuff like you know, we do videos with Mr.
5:35
SPEAKER_00: Paul Neefer, we do videos with other commodity brokers like Friday Futures Report with Tom Leffler.
5:41
SPEAKER_00: This guy, we somehow I keep leaning to the older crowd because I'm not impressed with these young kids.
5:47
SPEAKER_00: I love working with people who have experience, and sometimes you got to pay for experience.
5:53
SPEAKER_00: But here's the good part Mr.
5:55
SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson, who you all know from his daytime show now, Ag Squawk A.M.
5:59
SPEAKER_00: and Ag Squawk PM.
6:01
SPEAKER_00: We have Ag Squawk AM that is free, that'll stay free.
6:05
SPEAKER_00: We have Ag Squawk PM with Davis Michelson, that is free and stay free.
6:08
SPEAKER_00: Spotify, Apple, YouTube, all on video.
6:11
SPEAKER_00: But you know what Davis told me, Jim?
6:13
SPEAKER_00: What's he said, Tommy?
6:15
SPEAKER_00: Let's give away a speaker.
6:17
SPEAKER_00: And so I ordered a hundred, a hundred really nice Bluetooth speakers that if you're in your tractor, combine shed, car, whatever, people like to go to the beach or go walk or go do something, and they want those portable speakers.
6:31
SPEAKER_00: And so we got a hundred Agull Media Portable Speakers ordered.
6:35
SPEAKER_00: Anyone who signs up for a month or a year.
6:38
SPEAKER_00: Now, here's the catch.
6:40
SPEAKER_00: If you're really savvy in a cheap SOB, you could sign up for a month, cancel, get a free speaker out of me, and then you would actually get ahead of the deal.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: We'll see who does that.
6:51
SPEAKER_00: We'll see who signs up for a month, takes the speaker, and then drops the mic.
6:56
SPEAKER_00: But I'll tell you something.
6:57
SPEAKER_00: We keep a hell of an Excel spreadsheet, so you're only gonna pull that off once on me.
7:02
SPEAKER_00: But I don't care if you need a speaker that bad and you need money that bad.
7:05
SPEAKER_00: But what I can tell you is this, folks, is sometimes free is too expensive.
7:09
SPEAKER_00: So we have our paid for service.
7:10
SPEAKER_00: Jim has his paid for service.
7:12
SPEAKER_00: I encourage you all to go over there, contact us on the Eggbull site, and uh let's get you on that legacy program at Jim's because there is gonna be a big difference between what you're charging the legacy folks and what the new folks have, correct, Jim?
7:25
SPEAKER_01: Yes, and you're seeing us starting to get ready with a more professional look on my daily report and special reports, and you're already seeing it before it goes to the new system, Tommy.
7:36
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I like that.
7:37
SPEAKER_00: And there's a lot of things that we have access to.
7:39
SPEAKER_00: Let's get in the markets because uh, I'm a markets guy, but again, outside markets open at five central, the grains open at seven.
7:48
SPEAKER_00: Of course, if you ever want to get a hold of me, I think I have my number here.
7:51
SPEAKER_00: This number rings to the desk here.
7:53
SPEAKER_00: 1-855-737 Farm.
7:56
SPEAKER_00: You can call me and say I want to get on Jim's list.
7:58
SPEAKER_00: You can call me and say I want to get on your paid list.
8:00
SPEAKER_00: You can call me, ask me what I think about the markets.
8:02
SPEAKER_00: It's gonna ring to this phone right here.
8:04
SPEAKER_01: And look at the right-hand side.
8:06
SPEAKER_01: That's the weekly change.
8:07
SPEAKER_01: We saw corn up 20 cents.
8:09
SPEAKER_01: Look at soybeans, up 50.
8:11
SPEAKER_00: I didn't want to soy soybeans went up that much.
8:13
SPEAKER_01: I didn't either.
8:14
SPEAKER_00: I kind of realized they were like up 12, up 12.
8:16
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, you got to go to the 100.
8:17
SPEAKER_00: Well, 1253, 1253 and a half.
8:20
SPEAKER_01: And then we had some of my emails saying, Are we gonna see beans in the teens?
8:24
SPEAKER_01: You know, there was some sue somebody, an analyst years ago.
8:29
SPEAKER_00: Sue Martin.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: Sue Martin, yeah.
8:31
SPEAKER_01: That's I always think of beans in the teens.
8:33
SPEAKER_01: I think of her meal, meal.
8:35
SPEAKER_01: It just was a recovery week for the uh soy complex, except oil, but they've had a pretty good run-up over the last few months.
8:43
SPEAKER_01: But look at wheat uh went down on SRW and but HRW and spring wheat rallied, and that's largely due to the news and conjecture relative to the Ukraine and uh and Russia fisticuffs in the in the grain transport yield system, Tommy.
9:00
SPEAKER_00: I gotta give the the the the W the weather in.
9:03
SPEAKER_00: I talked to several clients in North Dakota this weekend, and they're hurting, Jim.
9:07
SPEAKER_00: The state of North Dakota on the W's, war, weather, and Wisemeyer.
9:13
SPEAKER_00: I got I gotta get add some I's and E's in there and tell me how your relatives say it in Illinois.
9:18
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm sorry.
9:19
SPEAKER_00: How do people how does your family pronounce your last name?
9:22
SPEAKER_01: We summer.
9:23
SPEAKER_00: We you told me just say it real fast, they'll never know.
9:26
SPEAKER_01: We will rejoice.
9:27
SPEAKER_00: We listen, rejoice.
9:29
SPEAKER_00: It's Sunday, and I'm supposed to be at church.
9:31
SPEAKER_01: But on the weather, I'm telling you, we in my weekend updates that I just posted right before this show.
9:38
SPEAKER_01: I we incl I include several weather maps on the high temps and also the uh low temperatures overnight, which is important for corn because they're just not going down low enough.
9:49
SPEAKER_01: Markets can't breathe, and that's important for kernel feel.
9:52
SPEAKER_01: But look at the northern, you mentioned North Dakota, look at the high temps on those maps and three digits, and and that's uh not conducive.
10:01
SPEAKER_01: And how many days in the uh uh Zachary's uh uh weather?
10:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Zachary Taylor's weather remote has weather report, Davis, has he mentioned the northern tier states of being a problem?
10:15
SPEAKER_01: And that's been a consistent line.
10:18
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I gotta tell you, folks, I gotta brag up Nesvik trading.
10:21
SPEAKER_00: We have our own internal weatherman, Mr.
10:23
SPEAKER_00: Craig Solberg, and he gets up at three in the morning and starts putting out stuff to the professional traders at Nesvik and brokers, and then we digest it.
10:32
SPEAKER_00: And Jim's gotten a little taste of uh what that looks like.
10:35
SPEAKER_00: And he did tell me something.
10:37
SPEAKER_00: The the weather apps at this time of year throw this crazy thing out, and he sent it to all of us brokers and traders, where the GFS models say it's going to be 112 degrees for two days in Nebraska, and he's not sure why it does it, but he knows that it has these massively off things.
10:58
SPEAKER_00: So, something really important to tell you all and share with you all.
11:00
SPEAKER_00: This is really important.
11:02
SPEAKER_00: And this goes back to the free stuff, and I I can't make this up.
11:06
SPEAKER_00: These free, if you ask a professional weather service that covers ag, they say, Why should I pay for you?
11:11
SPEAKER_00: They said the free apps don't think, and so they just grab the information and post it.
11:16
SPEAKER_00: What a professional weatherman does is says, Oh, yeah, it's the end of July, August, it's shooting above average temps, and they bring it in based on their 30, 40 years of experience.
11:26
SPEAKER_00: So when farmers look at an app and go get super crazy excited, that's going to be 112 or 110, it's probably going to be closer to 101 or 102.
11:36
SPEAKER_00: And he sent a whole description out on how three years ago we shot these free app high temps.
11:43
SPEAKER_00: And but the bottom line, Jim, and that's what you are, is a bottom line.
11:46
SPEAKER_00: Let's bring it together.
11:47
SPEAKER_00: What do you say?
11:47
SPEAKER_00: Let's gather the points, or how do you how do you say it in only a way you can?
11:51
SPEAKER_01: Well, you got to connect the dots, and then then connecting the dots, yeah, connecting the dots.
11:55
SPEAKER_01: And there's also differences at times between uh many times, apparently, between the US and the EU model, weather model.
12:03
SPEAKER_01: And I think the weather forecasters tend to tilt toward the European model.
12:07
SPEAKER_01: You know what they have to do.
12:14
SPEAKER_00: And in talking about, yeah, we should.
12:16
SPEAKER_00: That would be good.
12:18
SPEAKER_00: Real quick here, the the difference here between we're not denying it's hot.
12:24
SPEAKER_00: We're just excuse me, one second, Jim.
12:27
SPEAKER_01: And the heat index too gets up there.
12:30
SPEAKER_01: If we feel it, the plant feels it.
12:32
SPEAKER_01: And I I don't want to forget uh cotton.
12:35
SPEAKER_01: That had an up month up week, 135 points, and we're we're right at 80 cents again.
12:41
SPEAKER_01: And again, if China were to come in in a considerable way, you're off to the races in cotton.
12:47
SPEAKER_01: If if cattle, uh, what a week we had again.
12:50
SPEAKER_01: Live cattle went down what almost three bucks, and but feeder cattle, and we'll have more on the cattle markets in in the news you know section, Tommy.
12:59
SPEAKER_01: And lead lean hogs continue to show a seasonal pattern of an upward movement.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: Okay, very good.
13:07
SPEAKER_00: Very good.
13:07
SPEAKER_00: Let's move along in the show.
13:09
SPEAKER_00: The funds, what's going on here?
13:11
SPEAKER_01: Uh usually farmers uh should pay more attention to the funds, but they don't, you know, many of them don't.
13:16
SPEAKER_01: But I just want to tell you one time this week is the the market net position, they significantly had some chart covering.
13:26
SPEAKER_01: I don't think they went overtly long uh uh themselves, but it was short covering, and that's what helped the rally last week.
13:34
SPEAKER_01: And we go through some of this.
13:36
SPEAKER_01: Corn now is a net long, soybeans net long, et cetera, et cetera.
13:40
SPEAKER_01: But live cattle reduce their net long as uh as well as feeder cattle.
13:46
SPEAKER_01: So you gotta watch the funds, and you've said that from time to time, Tommy, both ways, both higher and lower, depending on where those uh uh speculators are relative to their positions.
13:57
SPEAKER_01: Am I correct?
13:59
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
14:00
SPEAKER_00: I think I really took the pressure off you this week because my phone rang twice already, and I didn't have it on mute.
14:05
SPEAKER_00: So I have you you have a 2x credit on the phone ringing for this show.
14:10
SPEAKER_00: But my dad said hi.
14:11
SPEAKER_00: I said, Dad, I'm recording with Jim.
14:13
SPEAKER_00: He's like, Oh, I didn't know it's so early.
14:15
SPEAKER_00: I said, This guy's crazy, wants to work all the time, night and day, doesn't sleep.
14:19
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what he's on.
14:20
SPEAKER_00: Yes, the funds.
14:22
SPEAKER_00: I don't know what the funds were on to go from that long to that short, that early in the growing season was a big, as they say in North Dakota and Minnesota, a big oofta because they really hit the gas hard and they are coming back for it.
14:38
SPEAKER_00: And people curse the funds.
14:40
SPEAKER_00: And I I can't explain to you how simply it is with the funds.
14:44
SPEAKER_00: Bring funds are fine, it brings liquidity, it brings liquidity.
14:47
SPEAKER_00: We our markets would be the most boring markets in the world if we didn't have the funds.
14:53
SPEAKER_00: If we just had speculator and a hedger and didn't have this giant pool of money that comes in and out, we would have the most boring markets in the world.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: And if you don't have the funds, then you live in a state or a nation that's probably not allowing speculators.
15:08
SPEAKER_00: So all you would have is now an end user, like someone who buys flour for bread, and then a farmer who sells the wheat to the miller, and that would be the whole market, Jim.
15:19
SPEAKER_00: Yes, and when you get these funds and speculators in the border trade and the pits and the screaming and the options and all that, that's what brings the noise.
15:28
SPEAKER_01: But we're trying to figure out that signal noise stuff, and it brings market clearing prices and it determines what the what the proper price should be eventually.
15:37
SPEAKER_01: That's that's the at least that's the goal there.
15:39
SPEAKER_01: And if we wouldn't have these things, Tommy, it would you weren't around then, but it would be like trading in the 1960s, where you just you talk about boring, it just never moved, it just very seldom moved.
15:52
SPEAKER_01: But now we're in international markets now with trade and exports, and now we have volatility and weather and and all that, so yeah, completely different, uh, you know, types of markets now.
16:05
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, if I remember right from being in the board of trade under some slow years, this is fun.
16:09
SPEAKER_00: We're talking about this, then we'll get back to the show.
16:11
SPEAKER_00: But it's important that we take our experience and knowledge and expertise and talk about it.
16:16
SPEAKER_00: Is that there are times when we talk about going to the the pick program, we could do a whole special on the pick program.
16:24
SPEAKER_01: 1983.
16:25
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but when we would go to is it called LDP when you go down to guaranteed levels and and then people would, you know, you could do your LDP, but then the market would move a few cents, and then you could pick to sell it there.
16:38
SPEAKER_00: You're talking about people working really hard because the market was only moving a nickel a week, and we're gonna move a nickel on the open tonight.
16:47
SPEAKER_00: I don't know which way, but we're gonna move.
16:50
SPEAKER_00: So volume.
16:51
SPEAKER_01: As we say, the penny calls are high.
16:54
SPEAKER_00: Talk about that, yes.
16:55
SPEAKER_01: And and and I I thought, okay, now I think I know what penny calls.
17:01
SPEAKER_01: Penny calls is an old grain trade shardhand for a pre-opening estimate stated in cents or pennies per bushel.
17:08
SPEAKER_01: So historically, floor brokers, when we had the floors, reviewed the orders accumulating before the opening bell, Tommy, and they broadcast an opening call, such as five lower or ten higher.
17:21
SPEAKER_01: The terminology survived the shift from trading pits to electronic markets.
17:26
SPEAKER_01: So soybeans are called four to eight cents higher, penny calls.
17:30
SPEAKER_01: At least that's what the initial calls were.
17:32
SPEAKER_01: That means traders expect soybean futures to open roughly four to eight cents per per bushel higher above Friday's sat uh settlement.
17:40
SPEAKER_01: It has nothing to do with call options or penny stocks.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: Oh, very good, very good.
17:45
SPEAKER_00: Hey, we're gonna get in the show, and I feel like we're going slow, but then we're gonna we're gonna get there.
17:51
SPEAKER_00: Well, we're gonna go hit it.
17:52
SPEAKER_00: But I want to thank our sponsors because then we're gonna hit it real hard.
17:54
SPEAKER_00: First of all, the second I get off this show, I'm gonna log into trade the news.
17:58
SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is an audio squawk service.
18:00
SPEAKER_00: Trade the news is a sponsor of Ag Bull and the whole Ag Bull team.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: If you'd like a free trial to Trade the News, tell them the Ag Bull Boy sent you.
18:08
SPEAKER_00: Second of all, I spent a few days in Chicago last week at the Plus500.
18:12
SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 has an Itasca Illinois office, a Chicago office, and they have offices all over the world.
18:17
SPEAKER_00: But plus 500 is who we use for our quotes in software and trading.
18:22
SPEAKER_00: We also use them as an FCM, futures clearing merchant.
18:26
SPEAKER_00: So plus 500, a friend of the show on both the software side and the best way I can explain to people is there are a bank.
18:34
SPEAKER_00: But interesting conversation at Plus 500 when I was there with the uh management, they're very interested in what we're doing in video, and they want to do something like that in video.
18:43
SPEAKER_00: And different brokerage companies around the uh world are really starting to do a lot more live streaming and video, and you know, some people think because they're talented, they just assume someone's gonna read what they're writing, and that's no longer the case.
18:58
SPEAKER_00: You can call it the new ADHD generation, you can call it the YouTube short generation, but the the world wants quick hits, Jim.
19:07
SPEAKER_00: And they do what's fascinating about what you and I do here, fascinating, is we tend to do a 45-minute show, and thousands of people a week watch most of it.
19:18
SPEAKER_00: Now, they don't always make it to the end, and I understand you get busy, whatever, but this isn't a YouTube short where we talk for 15 seconds and say something dramatic, right?
19:27
SPEAKER_00: Pithy, pithy, yeah, yeah.
19:29
SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, thank you guys for watching.
19:31
SPEAKER_00: I want to thank our sponsors.
19:33
SPEAKER_00: Of course, now we are gonna go rapid fire with the one and only Mr.
19:37
SPEAKER_00: Jim cattle report on Friday, double whammy.
19:40
SPEAKER_00: Something else happened on Friday, too, my friend.
19:42
SPEAKER_01: Yes, we'll follow that up because it could affect the initial calls that were made following those cattle reports, the mid-year cattle inventory report that's back now, thank goodness, and the cattle on feed report.
19:54
SPEAKER_01: But the we had a couple days here, late week gains in the cattle markets.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: Now, some people saying is that does that signal a near near-term bottom in?
20:02
SPEAKER_01: Question mark.
20:03
SPEAKER_01: The cattle inventory report showed the total herd at 94.2 million head.
20:08
SPEAKER_01: That's up only fractionally.
20:10
SPEAKER_01: First year-over-year increase since 2018, Tommy.
20:14
SPEAKER_01: Wow.
20:15
SPEAKER_01: Beef cow numbers, however, are still down about 1%.
20:18
SPEAKER_01: Replacement heifers are up 3%.
20:21
SPEAKER_01: That's the first increase in nine years.
20:23
SPEAKER_01: The cattle on feed report that also came out, put July 1 feedlot inventories up 2% versus year ago.
20:32
SPEAKER_01: Placements were down 3%, marketings were down 3%.
20:36
SPEAKER_01: The smallest since the series began in 1996.
20:41
SPEAKER_01: Marketings, that's important.
20:43
SPEAKER_01: The reports look near-term neutral.
20:46
SPEAKER_01: That was the average consensus that I determined, uh uh uh hearing and listening to different analysts, but structurally friendly because we still have a tight supply market, which leads us into our next topic, Tommy.
21:03
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
21:04
SPEAKER_00: Wow, you aren't messing around.
21:06
SPEAKER_00: No, all right, hey Friday.
21:08
SPEAKER_01: We uh the Wall Street Journal.
21:10
SPEAKER_00: I can I play the breaking news alert with the sound?
21:14
SPEAKER_00: All right, hold on.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: We got breaking news, breaking news.
21:18
SPEAKER_01: I think this is a real big freaking deal because we had we've been talking about it for a month for but July 25th, last July last year was when they they opened it and then they closed it.
21:31
SPEAKER_01: Right.
21:31
SPEAKER_00: This is one of those things where you could yell, I was right, I knew they're gonna open the book a year.
21:36
SPEAKER_00: It's just my timing was off by a year.
21:39
SPEAKER_00: Give me my article.
21:41
SPEAKER_00: I was right, my timing was off by a year.
21:43
SPEAKER_00: Go ahead.
21:45
SPEAKER_01: The the uh secretary of agriculture, Brooke Rollins.
21:49
SPEAKER_01: I will chide her a bit here.
21:51
SPEAKER_01: She gives breaking news in an interview with the Wall Street Journal, and that's a consistent pattern.
21:58
SPEAKER_01: I think she's got an elitist attitude when it comes to media.
22:01
SPEAKER_01: If you're gonna break it, break it to the ag press.
22:03
SPEAKER_01: But uh, she likes these.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: Should we tell her how to get a hold of us real quick?
22:07
SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah, they know they.
22:10
SPEAKER_00: They know folks.
22:11
SPEAKER_00: But Apple.com can break news too, you know.
22:14
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
22:15
SPEAKER_01: This could have gotten into the market, Tommy, because I don't yeah, Wall Street Journal broke it.
22:19
SPEAKER_01: Now, let's go through what they eventually announced at Friday at eight o'clock p.m.
22:25
SPEAKER_01: at Eastern Time.
22:27
SPEAKER_01: So they made me work Friday evening.
22:29
SPEAKER_01: I had two, three drinks in you already.
22:31
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, well, it was created a good special report.
22:34
SPEAKER_01: But beginning August 24th, there's going to start the reopening at the port uh Douglas uh at the port in Douglas, Arizona.
22:44
SPEAKER_01: Now, Santa Teresa and Columbus, New Mexico are going to follow pending evaluation of the initial phased-in reopening.
22:54
SPEAKER_01: Every animal is under going to go first for full inspection.
22:59
SPEAKER_01: The phase in is subject to a pause if risk rises.
23:03
SPEAKER_01: So this is not a total done deal, Tommy.
23:06
SPEAKER_01: The reopening will eventually add feeder supplies at the margin, a modest headwind to the feeder cattle market.
23:14
SPEAKER_01: Volumes are going to build slowly and conditionally, little to change structurally tight U.S.
23:22
SPEAKER_01: supply.
23:23
SPEAKER_01: But now I'm going to bow to the market Monday.
23:40
SPEAKER_01: On what we heard in Friday reports and the USDA announcement of the phased reopening.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: Right.
23:47
SPEAKER_00: Let me we're going to depend on the markets.
23:50
SPEAKER_00: That's why I see the futures involved risk, and uh we put the disclaimer, but there's nothing there's nothing like really is there anything bullish in them reopening the border or not one ounce of bullishness?
24:02
SPEAKER_00: Couldn't be.
24:03
SPEAKER_01: Well, it depends on your perspective.
24:05
SPEAKER_01: If you're a Texas, if you're in Texas and Mexico, you like to see that border reopened.
24:11
SPEAKER_01: Uh so it gives you it gives you some business, Tommy.
24:14
SPEAKER_01: So the the the no the bullishness, some of the bullishness came from some of the numbers in the mid in the mid-year inventory, but they no, the announcement by itself, and it nothing's by itself anymore, is negative to feeder cattle, should be psychologically, if nothing else.
24:33
SPEAKER_01: So we're but we've got offsetting events.
24:35
SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna just I'm just gonna be curious to see how the market works through this.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: And we had a nice rally end of day.
24:41
SPEAKER_00: You know, there's some people who speculated, Jim feeder markets had an explosive rally at one point Friday, and then all of a sudden, out of nowhere, sold off.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, you're I was a professional trader, which I happen to be.
24:55
SPEAKER_00: I would say someone knew that announcement was coming up.
24:57
SPEAKER_01: Could have I got some emails to that effect.
25:00
SPEAKER_01: I can't prove it, you know.
25:02
SPEAKER_01: But this is why I think the Secretary of Agriculture should have waited until for sure, until for others who got it at 8 p.m., you know.
25:12
SPEAKER_01: But she's a different secretary when it comes to news.
25:15
SPEAKER_01: She's uh likes the the biggies, she likes the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business News, and MSNBC, so be it.
25:22
SPEAKER_00: Well, hope hopefully someone from her staff watches this video and says, you know what, we can break news too with the best of them.
25:28
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's move along.
25:29
SPEAKER_00: Number five, sir.
25:31
SPEAKER_01: Oh, if there was a keyword this past week, it was tariffs again.
25:35
SPEAKER_01: Mr.
25:36
SPEAKER_01: Tariff Man, President Trump, was at it in all fronts.
25:39
SPEAKER_01: He he announced uh Section 338 tariffs on Canada.
25:43
SPEAKER_01: That's an additional 50% tariffs on Canadian dairy products, alcoholic beverages, and vehicles because he's upset at Canada's reaction on all three categories.
25:54
SPEAKER_01: It takes effect, however, August the 19th, which tells me I don't think that they'll eventually go in because Trump is going to negotiate with uh Canadian top officials, including their prime minister.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: Let's hope that they work out a deal, Tommy.
26:09
SPEAKER_01: But some Canadian shipments, thank goodness, including potash and wiener pigs.
26:14
SPEAKER_01: We got a lot of wiener pigs.
26:16
SPEAKER_01: They are exempt from these 338 tariffs.
26:20
SPEAKER_01: So, but dairy tariffs, Trump is not leaving, and USTR, James and Greer is not leaving the way Canada has treated their US dairy sector alone.
26:32
SPEAKER_01: So uh they're gonna keep this up relative to the negotiations under US, Mexico, Canada trade negotiations, and and Canada, I think eventually is gonna have to change not significantly, they're just gonna have to give their quota to users in Canada that will actually use the quota, and that's what the USS That Canada did an end around by providing a quota on dairy imports from the U.S.
27:02
SPEAKER_01: and giving it to people that who they knew wouldn't actualize it, wouldn't implement it.
27:08
SPEAKER_01: So that that's that's where we're at on Canada and 338.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: Real quick note, folks, Mr.
27:13
SPEAKER_00: Sean Haney was on with Mr.
27:15
SPEAKER_00: Davis Michelson on Friday.
27:17
SPEAKER_00: And we, you know, of course, on Eggsquawk in the afternoons p.m.
27:21
SPEAKER_00: we go long for him.
27:22
SPEAKER_00: I mean, they'll those boys talked for 30 minutes straight on just American things, Canadian things.
27:27
SPEAKER_00: I learned something.
27:27
SPEAKER_00: I learned something every time I produce one of Davis's shows on uh Eggsquawk.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: But when the can let me see if I'm saying this right, you'll totally understand what I'm talking about.
27:36
SPEAKER_00: And this is something Sean said, Well, one, we joked, you know, are we tariffing you because of smoke?
27:41
SPEAKER_00: And uh he said, no, that's a whole nother issue.
27:44
SPEAKER_00: But the uh when the Canadian government makes a Canadian farm bill, you don't know what they're meeting about.
27:51
SPEAKER_00: They just come out one day and say, Oh, we have it.
27:55
SPEAKER_00: Did you understand that?
27:57
SPEAKER_01: Well, it's behind closed doors.
27:58
SPEAKER_00: It's not the hell is he talking about?
28:00
SPEAKER_01: Well, it's it's they and you won't know it for months.
28:03
SPEAKER_01: That's true.
28:04
SPEAKER_01: Is that democracy?
28:06
SPEAKER_01: No, but Canada's not like the U.S.
28:08
SPEAKER_01: in that regard, especially in the in the agricultural uh I didn't like that their supply management and dairy, etc.
28:15
SPEAKER_01: They're there, you know.
28:16
SPEAKER_01: Now they'll counter that the U.S.
28:19
SPEAKER_01: sugar program is very similar, but he had a hard time, and and I did because I trust, I count on Haney to find help me find out information.
28:28
SPEAKER_01: And we won't know for a couple of months totally what what direction they're going to in their so-called uh farm bills.
28:35
SPEAKER_01: So, but Haney's a good guy, he's he's in the United States almost as frequently as he is in Canada, but he he's a uh an excellent writer, astute analyst, and he's a good friend now.
28:49
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, here I have his information because he was still on the show right there, Sean Haney, realagriculture.com.
28:54
SPEAKER_00: During the show, I did tell Sean that I said, listen, I don't think Jim watches all Davis's show.
28:59
SPEAKER_00: And because Jim doesn't watch, I just want to tell you, Sean, I think you're a way better agricultural reporter than Jim will ever be.
29:06
SPEAKER_00: And he goes, if he finds out you said that, you are in big trouble.
29:11
SPEAKER_00: I go it'll make him laugh nonetheless.
29:13
SPEAKER_00: Let's get back to it.
29:14
SPEAKER_00: It just did.
29:15
SPEAKER_00: It just did.
29:16
SPEAKER_00: All of a sudden, uh, your your stuff's coming out of your nose because you're giggling.
29:20
SPEAKER_00: All right, we've covered the Canada thing.
29:22
SPEAKER_00: I didn't like that Canada.
29:24
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we're meeting.
29:25
SPEAKER_00: Oh, we have a farm bill.
29:26
SPEAKER_00: What how'd you guys decide this?
29:27
SPEAKER_00: I'm like, sounded like communism, socialism.
29:30
SPEAKER_00: I don't know, it didn't sound like America, brother.
29:32
SPEAKER_01: Well, look at where Britain's going now.
29:35
SPEAKER_01: They're a function of Britain.
29:36
SPEAKER_00: We wouldn't even be able to do a podcast like this in Britain.
29:38
SPEAKER_01: They'd try to Section 301, tariffs for forced labor.
29:43
SPEAKER_01: This is where the administration is going since the Supreme Court ruled that they had to change.
29:50
SPEAKER_01: They announced tariffs of 10% to 12.5%, and they took effect July 24th because that's when the Section 122 tariff expired.
30:00
SPEAKER_01: The duties covered 60 economies and they accounted for they account for more than 99% of U.S.
30:06
SPEAKER_01: imports.
30:07
SPEAKER_01: I think 99.4% to be exact.
30:09
SPEAKER_01: The significance here, Tommy, is USTR, US trade rep is rewarding countries that strengthen forced labor import restrictions.
30:20
SPEAKER_01: Now, here's here's the signal, a clear signal that they're giving.
30:24
SPEAKER_01: Trump is using trade policy as foreign policy, and that's a significant issue there.
30:32
SPEAKER_01: The the the if there was an element of bullish bullishness in this in this move to 301 tariffs on forced labor, it's cotton.
30:41
SPEAKER_01: Because uh Trump included tariff rate quotas from Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Malaysia with the impact that they could boost U.S.
30:52
SPEAKER_01: exports.
30:53
SPEAKER_01: They would buy more of our textiles, etc.
30:57
SPEAKER_01: So that that could be eventually good news for cotton.
31:00
SPEAKER_01: So I would I'm gonna watch, I'm gonna monitor those four countries in in the future to see if we can boost U.S.
31:08
SPEAKER_01: cotton exports.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: That would be a good thing.
31:10
SPEAKER_01: The bottom line on this is expect as anything Trump does, legal court challenges, but they constructed this 301 pretty good to avoid losing court battles, Tommy.
31:22
SPEAKER_01: That's what they tell me in the Trump administration.
31:26
SPEAKER_00: Number seven.
31:27
SPEAKER_00: Almost every week we talk about uh Mr.
31:29
SPEAKER_00: Jameson uh Greer.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: Yes, he's the he's the doer in this administration and he knows what he's talking about.
31:39
SPEAKER_01: And and he makes a lot a lot of a lot of the decisions.
31:43
SPEAKER_01: He defended the he was in front of the Senate Finance Committee uh uh Wednesday, and then he uh hightailed to Mexico for uh negotiations on the USMCA.
31:53
SPEAKER_01: But he defended the tariffs for reshoring production back into the U.S., for strengthening the supply chain, both near shoring and and in the U.S.
32:03
SPEAKER_01: And he the concept is to reduce U.S.
32:07
SPEAKER_01: trade deficits.
32:08
SPEAKER_01: Those are the overall goals of the Trump administration's trade policy.
32:13
SPEAKER_01: Now, the full USMCA renewal, he said, is unlikely before 2027.
32:20
SPEAKER_01: That means he signaled interim arrangements with Canada and Mexico could emerge by the end of this year.
32:27
SPEAKER_01: That was the news, I think, in that hearing.
32:30
SPEAKER_01: They're going to focus on tighter rules of origin for autos primarily, stronger Mexican labor and environmental enforcement relative to USMCA.
32:41
SPEAKER_01: And of course, we've already talked about dairy.
32:44
SPEAKER_01: The Democrats on the panel argued that tariffs have increased household cost, the affordability and angle, and Greer rejected that charge.
32:55
SPEAKER_01: And that was kind of the the the basis of that.
32:58
SPEAKER_01: Now, on uh on Agbol.com over the weekend, I think yesterday, I put together what we call booklet, connecting the dots booklet, on what we've learned so far this year on Trump's trade policy.
33:13
SPEAKER_01: And we really kind of edited uh the uh all the special reports that we've generated just this year on the trade policy and kind of connected dots, Tommy.
33:23
SPEAKER_01: So I wanted to I I wanted to uh you know promote the reading of that.
33:28
SPEAKER_01: Uh if you want to really good uh well, it puts things hopefully together and it keeps me sane because I forget a lot of the stuff.
33:36
SPEAKER_01: So I thought, okay, now that's my primer on the trade policy now.
33:40
SPEAKER_01: Now the next one, Tommy, we're gonna go into Secretary Rollins testified in front of another Senate panel.
33:47
SPEAKER_00: She's a busy gal this week.
33:49
SPEAKER_01: She is very busy.
33:50
SPEAKER_01: She pushed for the farmer aid of$11.1 billion.
33:54
SPEAKER_01: That was part of uh President Trump's uh request uh for additional billions of dollars for Iran, for the Iran war,$10 billion for 2026 row uh crop and specialty crops, and$1.1 billion for the Florida Ag Disaster Aid.
34:11
SPEAKER_01: Now, the House budget resolution.
34:15
SPEAKER_01: Uh that's that's now uh some people are reporting that the House approved$12 billion in farmer aid.
34:22
SPEAKER_01: No, no, no, no, no.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: That's incorrect.
34:23
SPEAKER_01: They don't understand Congress.
34:25
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
34:26
SPEAKER_01: The House budget resolution just uh contained language directing the House Ag Committee to detail up to$12 billion in farmer aid.
34:37
SPEAKER_01: And the and House Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican from Louisiana, said they're really not gonna finalize this legislation until after November 3rd election.
34:49
SPEAKER_01: So this issue is gonna be with us for a while, Tommy.
34:52
SPEAKER_01: Also in the hearing, the the news that came out of that hearing was Rollins made it clear that USDA is gonna restore prevented planting crop insurance buy-up option, and they're gonna correct a mistake they did last year.
35:06
SPEAKER_01: So the at least they learned from their mistakes.
35:09
SPEAKER_01: I'll give them credit for that.
35:11
SPEAKER_01: Uh, she also agreed to reconsider the rescinded Packers and Stockyards related rules.
35:18
SPEAKER_01: So that's something we're gonna have to monitor.
35:21
SPEAKER_01: Well, some of the the the aspects as far as poultry uh pricing to look at how they price things and things like that.
35:29
SPEAKER_01: So we're just gonna monitor that.
35:30
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna see if they do change.
35:32
SPEAKER_01: And the Democrats uh kept on beating her up on SNAP, the food stamp program, and the food cost, and that uh generated some partisan clashes there.
35:43
SPEAKER_01: And that was not that was expected because that's one of the farm state democrats' uh top issue is the food stamp program, Tommy.
35:51
SPEAKER_01: Next one.
35:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and if you look at that farm bill, it's a giant pie chart, and the biggest sliver of the pie is obviously the snake 85 percent or higher for food nutrition programs.
36:01
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, number nine, U.S.
36:02
SPEAKER_00: Iran, the gift that keeps giving, but it's not a gift.
36:05
SPEAKER_00: The gift we want to return.
36:08
SPEAKER_01: Yes, U.S.
36:09
SPEAKER_01: strikes for 13 straight days, uh consecutive days.
36:12
SPEAKER_01: It's been 15 days since the so-called ceasefire ended, but we had a recent lull here over the weekend.
36:20
SPEAKER_01: What's what's going on here?
36:21
SPEAKER_01: Will Trump target Iranian civilian infrastructure?
36:25
SPEAKER_01: We have an internal battle within the White House on this one, Tommy.
36:29
SPEAKER_01: Vice President uh J.D.
36:31
SPEAKER_01: Vance is arguing uh for a more tepid response here.
36:35
SPEAKER_01: He continues to argue that.
36:36
SPEAKER_01: In fact, going publicly on some podcast that some uh veteran White House watchers are are looking, saying, why is he doing that?
36:45
SPEAKER_01: Why go against your own president until the president makes a decision?
36:50
SPEAKER_01: So that's a sidebar issue to watch out for.
36:54
SPEAKER_01: The Houthis are attacking Saudi Arabia, and that threatens Red Sea shipping.
37:00
SPEAKER_01: That's why your energy prices, although down uh Friday for both WTI, that's the U.S.
37:06
SPEAKER_01: crude oil market, and the Brent crude market, that's the international market, had a down day Friday, but they had a significant run up during the week on a percentage basis.
37:18
SPEAKER_01: Now, for the ag connection, we always look for the ag connection, that has fueled diesel fuel prices, and that's not coming at a good time here for agriculture.
37:29
SPEAKER_01: Now, Iran is seeking to widen the wire to other regions.
37:33
SPEAKER_01: That's why I mentioned the Houthis.
37:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I saw that to put more pressure on us.
37:37
SPEAKER_01: And China urged Iran late last week to return to the negotiating table when the market when the equity markets saw uh heard that, and that was in one of the the uh the uh trading news uh service that absolutely one more shout out for trade the news.
37:56
SPEAKER_00: So you were listening to your trade the news and you heard what that's the first time I heard that.
38:00
SPEAKER_01: That was China was urging Iran to come back to the negotiating table.
38:05
SPEAKER_01: But I'll put perspective on that.
38:07
SPEAKER_01: When they say when the Trump is gonna have to learn sooner or later, I think he knows now.
38:11
SPEAKER_01: When you're negotiating with the Iranians, who are you really negotiating with?
38:15
SPEAKER_01: And are they really calling the shots?
38:17
SPEAKER_01: He's gonna have to negotiate with the military people, and I don't think they want to negotiate.
38:22
SPEAKER_01: So I think that any move toward the back to the negotiating table is a passive approach, is the wrong approach based on people that I respect that uh uh Iran listens to one thing, military people, and they don't negotiate.
38:39
SPEAKER_01: They'll only negotiate, and then the second they leave that room, they'll question what their so-called leaders negotiated.
38:48
SPEAKER_01: And that's what we've seen for months here, Tommy.
38:50
SPEAKER_01: When is the U.S.
38:51
SPEAKER_01: gonna learn that?
38:53
SPEAKER_00: I don't know, but I think uh it's gonna come to a head here like a like a bad uh zit.
38:59
SPEAKER_00: And here's what I think there's only a few people who can make this end, and that's China and Russia, and then the third, of course, military force.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: So we can bomb as they President Trump says, I quote, we can bomb the shit out of them, or we can put so much discomfort into the China economy that China could make this problem go away.
39:21
SPEAKER_00: What do you think, Jim?
39:22
SPEAKER_01: Well, yeah, I think the China connection is significant because they had built up reserves, but the longer this goes on, they're gonna use those reserves, Tommy.
39:30
SPEAKER_01: So China is gonna feel more pressure in the months ahead.
39:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
39:35
SPEAKER_01: Now, J.D.
39:36
SPEAKER_01: Vance, to be fair to him, is bringing up the refugee problem that if you did get into the infrastructure of uh of Iran by bombing the bridges, etc., that's gonna lead to a lot of refugees.
39:50
SPEAKER_01: That's the that's the fog of war.
39:52
SPEAKER_01: So, which way are you gonna go?
39:54
SPEAKER_01: Bottom line, the U.S.-Iran conflict is still very volatile.
39:59
SPEAKER_01: And I listen in the U.S., I listened to one person in the Trump administration on this one.
40:05
SPEAKER_01: I don't listen to Trump.
40:07
SPEAKER_01: I don't listen to J.D.
40:08
SPEAKER_01: Bance because he's a near pacifist.
40:11
SPEAKER_01: Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
40:13
SPEAKER_01: I think he's a straight shooter and is the one that that I would uh suggest that you listen to on the next direction ahead on this very sensitive issue.
40:23
SPEAKER_00: Are we looking at our next uh Republican candidate for the 2028 election?
40:27
SPEAKER_01: One of the top two, yeah.
40:28
SPEAKER_01: I think he's uh at or near the top.
40:31
SPEAKER_01: JD Vance is really signaling to the uh to the Maha and crowd on it, but uh Vance is uh Rubio is your more uh stable polished, polished polished, yeah, uh legacy, legacy Republican.
40:48
SPEAKER_01: Okay, yeah, yeah.
40:49
SPEAKER_00: Do you see uh a Rubio Rollins ticket?
40:53
SPEAKER_01: Secretary Rollins is for my sources really what would like to be a vice presidential candidate with with any with either uh Rubio or RJ D Vance.
41:05
SPEAKER_01: And she's very articulate.
41:07
SPEAKER_01: I think she could be a good candidate.
41:08
SPEAKER_01: And she's I've always said in my speeches, she's Trump with a skirt.
41:12
SPEAKER_01: I mean, she she knows the talking part of the stuff.
41:15
SPEAKER_00: Madam Secretary, if you'd like to launch your presidential bid on the Agbull Network, you you know, you just don't have to talk to uh Wall Street Journal and Fox News.
41:24
SPEAKER_00: We can I think Jim's pretty good at breaking a story.
41:26
SPEAKER_00: Jim, full screen on you.
41:27
SPEAKER_00: How many presidents have you interviewed?
41:29
SPEAKER_00: One more time.
41:30
SPEAKER_01: Since Carter Reagan, yeah, that goes back a long time.
41:35
SPEAKER_01: A long time.
41:36
SPEAKER_01: My two best presidents, at least that I thought were the smartest and did the job right, was President Reagan.
41:43
SPEAKER_01: What you saw is what you got.
41:45
SPEAKER_01: He was good to his staff and he picked his spots very carefully and he used his cabinet, he let him work.
41:50
SPEAKER_01: And second one, which may surprise you, was Bill Clinton.
41:54
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I like it.
41:54
SPEAKER_01: Even with his foibles, my 401k was a 601k in those years.
41:59
SPEAKER_01: He could have done a lot more had it not been for his foibles, but he was he was an effective president who dealt with the Republicans, and I thought those are the two in my long career that I respected the most.
42:13
SPEAKER_00: I want to say something, but if I say it, you're gonna laugh so hard.
42:15
SPEAKER_00: But I'm gonna say it and then we'll just move on.
42:18
SPEAKER_00: But something he just had a problem with those cigars, so we'll we'll keep moving on.
42:22
SPEAKER_01: Number 10, Russia we call it foibles, we call it foibles.
42:26
SPEAKER_00: How do you spell that?
42:27
SPEAKER_01: F-O-I-B-L-E.
42:29
SPEAKER_00: Oh, very good.
42:29
SPEAKER_00: Number 10, Russia, Ukraine, black.
42:32
SPEAKER_01: See, it's been in the wheat news.
42:33
SPEAKER_01: If you haven't got followed this one, we have been covering this like a wet blanket.
42:39
SPEAKER_01: Ukraine's Black Sea corridor is really effectively stalled.
42:43
SPEAKER_01: The ship owners halted new calls at the Odessa area ports following repeated Russian uh strikes.
42:50
SPEAKER_01: Ukraine has not formally closed their ports.
42:53
SPEAKER_01: In fact, we discussed, you were the first one to alert me, Tommy, that they were talking about uh four different options plans to do ends around to get some of their grain exported.
43:03
SPEAKER_01: But even if they executed that, it wouldn't come close to allowing the exports to be at normal levels.
43:10
SPEAKER_01: Their export capacity is sharply reduced.
43:13
SPEAKER_01: Their Black Sea grain loading capacity is down one-third.
43:18
SPEAKER_01: Cargoes are being diverted, and they can replace only part of the lost seaport capacity.
43:25
SPEAKER_01: Russia, their Azov route, is also disrupted, and they that's the corridor handling about 25% of Russian grain exports.
43:34
SPEAKER_01: Now Russia is shifting to other ports, but the vessel movements are limited to daytime.
43:41
SPEAKER_01: The market impact has been bullish for freight and war risk premiums, and it keeps wheat markets volatile, very volatile, up and down, depending on the news, Tommy.
43:52
SPEAKER_01: That's why we have to monitor that news in this area.
43:55
SPEAKER_01: So the Econ, they're a consulting firm, estimates Russia's July wheat exports are going to be down about 30% from last year.
44:04
SPEAKER_01: That's your market impact.
44:07
SPEAKER_00: Hey, real quick on the gossip.
44:09
SPEAKER_00: Corner, did someone pull a fast one on the markets on Friday?
44:12
SPEAKER_00: Because wheat went from up 10 before the markets overnight to down 30.
44:17
SPEAKER_00: And what happened on Friday for you home gamers is August options expired.
44:22
SPEAKER_00: So when you look at wheat, if wheat's going to go from up 10 to down 30, corn's not just going to sit there.
44:27
SPEAKER_00: And there was huge, massive open interest in all these strikes in corn.
44:31
SPEAKER_00: And corn went from like up three to down nine.
44:34
SPEAKER_00: And then went from down nine back up on the day.
44:38
SPEAKER_00: There was a rumor or talk that like everything was kumbaya in Ukraine.
44:43
SPEAKER_00: Yes.
44:43
SPEAKER_00: And then all of a sudden, some drones are bombing them.
44:46
SPEAKER_00: Did someone put out a rumor?
44:48
SPEAKER_00: Did anything factual happen?
44:50
SPEAKER_00: We can report on Friday on that 40 cent week move.
44:53
SPEAKER_01: Well, it was it it was a shifting news thing that that they initially Marcus React initially on uh uh one-liner headlines.
45:04
SPEAKER_00: So they're futures markets, right?
45:05
SPEAKER_01: Yes, yeah.
45:06
SPEAKER_01: But then the more they the more the Russia and Ukraine watchers said, well, this has been tried before, Russia's gonna have to go along, and and even at that, uh it's not gonna be near the impact on on restoring uh Ukrainian exports to the level that the of normal of normal tonnages.
45:27
SPEAKER_01: And so that's why we had the intramarket volatility.
45:31
SPEAKER_01: And then, of course, like you said, from a from a end of uh end of contract expiration, you'll always have volatility, and that's why news at certain times can can really accelerate any move up or down, period.
45:47
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I have a a tweet coming out from someone.
45:50
SPEAKER_00: I let me see.
45:52
SPEAKER_00: Let me I'll go full screen on you and I want to read this real quick.
45:56
SPEAKER_00: This is from uh Walter Bloomberg, he puts out a ton of stuff though.
45:59
SPEAKER_00: But US bombing in Iran paused because Omanian officials traveled Friday to uh Tehran for talk, CBS news reports, citing sources.
46:07
SPEAKER_00: So would that be a positive spin that they traveled?
46:11
SPEAKER_01: Well, that's your your your possibility that we said of negotiations returning.
46:17
SPEAKER_01: Yes, absolutely.
46:19
SPEAKER_01: But again, I come I I will consistently say if we're gonna negotiate with Iranians, who are we really talking to?
46:27
SPEAKER_01: The the people who who who the second they get out of the meeting, the military people say we're not gonna agree with that.
46:33
SPEAKER_01: So I you know, it's just I just don't spend too much time anymore on these so-called ceasefire talks.
46:39
SPEAKER_01: I think they're a joke.
46:40
SPEAKER_00: But the uh high frequency traders, the all the electronics, oh they they move on that.
46:45
SPEAKER_01: They move on, yeah.
46:46
SPEAKER_01: Look at the stock market equals, right?
46:48
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
46:48
SPEAKER_00: They let's see, are these boys and girls they're working?
46:51
SPEAKER_00: They're not working.
46:52
SPEAKER_00: What type of work ethic they did you say five weeks off?
46:55
SPEAKER_00: Who the hell gets that?
46:56
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the house becomes Europe.
46:58
SPEAKER_01: Uh, they're taking summer break.
46:59
SPEAKER_01: Are you serious?
47:00
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah, they're on break for five weeks.
47:03
SPEAKER_00: Are we paying them to do that?
47:04
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
47:05
SPEAKER_01: Tell me, taxpayers, yeah, they don't know it, but yes, we we pay them.
47:09
SPEAKER_01: Uh their summer break for five weeks, although they did get at least the budget resolution done, and a lot of your so-called congressional experts didn't think they could even do that.
47:20
SPEAKER_01: The Senate is in this week and next week before the recess.
47:24
SPEAKER_01: And I just got one, two, three, four, five, five words.
47:27
SPEAKER_01: Same list of Senate issues uh over the next two weeks.
47:30
SPEAKER_01: Will we have a Farm Bill 2.0 markup in the Senate Ag Committee?
47:35
SPEAKER_01: That depends on whether or not Bozeman, John Bozeman, Senate Ag Committee Chairman, Republican from Arkansas, works a deal out with Amy Klobuchar, Democrat from Minnesota, ranking member of the Senate AG Committee, going to run for governor, and she will be the next governor of Minnesota.
47:52
SPEAKER_01: The Democrats don't want to vote for any Farm Bill 2.0 until they get a little uh respite from some of these issues relative to the Snap or Food Stamp Program.
48:05
SPEAKER_01: And that's your bottom line on uh Farm Bill 2.0.
48:08
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have to see if it can work a deal.
48:11
SPEAKER_01: Year-round E15, we're at the same chapter, Tommy, as we were before.
48:15
SPEAKER_01: Where's the language?
48:17
SPEAKER_01: What uh it probably don't have the votes if there's standalone bill.
48:21
SPEAKER_01: John Thune, the majority majority leader from South Dakota, South Dakota, yeah, uh, keeps saying that he wants this, but I want to see the language because it can't be the same thing as the House bill because it would be detrimental to the bio diesel renewable diesel industry.
48:39
SPEAKER_01: And farmer aid, as we've said before, uh later rather than sooner, because that's going to take until after November 3rd elections to really see the level and uh whether or not uh it can survive a vote in both the House and Senate.
48:55
SPEAKER_01: So we're kind of in this lull period for Congress right now.
48:59
SPEAKER_01: They're really gearing up for the November 3rd elections, Tommy.
49:02
SPEAKER_01: That's that's your bottom line.
49:04
SPEAKER_00: That's it.
49:04
SPEAKER_00: That's all the slides.
49:05
SPEAKER_00: Number 12 is hey, we're out of, we're out of watch the weather.
49:10
SPEAKER_01: My my the the the things to watch out for and constructive is weather, weather, weather.
49:17
SPEAKER_01: Watch those uh overnight temps for corn filling.
49:21
SPEAKER_01: And uh as Tommy mentioned, watch in your northern tier states, they're they're being hit by consistently very high 90s to into the 100s, and so that's why you have to see what what are the precips of precipitation forecast, and don't forget Europe, they continue to have there, it's unrelenting, it's unrelenting in Europe.
49:45
SPEAKER_01: Fires now going on in central Spain, Valencia, etc.
49:49
SPEAKER_01: And that's affecting their European farmers, period.
49:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, a lot of things happening in wheat.
49:54
SPEAKER_00: I feel like wheat was dragging the markets up, but then soybeans said, Hold my beer.
49:58
SPEAKER_00: Uh, we want to go along for the ride, too.
49:59
SPEAKER_00: I feel like corn's kind of mixed in the middle, folks.
50:02
SPEAKER_00: Before we end, I'll let Jim take the last few words.
50:04
SPEAKER_00: I just do want to thank you for if you are a paid subscriber, thank you.
50:08
SPEAKER_00: If you're not a paid subscriber, I'd love to see you on the AgBL side.
50:12
SPEAKER_00: Now, the Agble side is definitely markets, market-based Intel, whereas Jim's hardcore news analyst perspective, perspectives of what's going on.
50:24
SPEAKER_00: Of course, we already have our paid for service.
50:26
SPEAKER_00: I did look at the calendar.
50:28
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
50:28
SPEAKER_00: Jim, you and I are gonna do this video for another 20 weeks for free.
50:33
SPEAKER_00: We're not just gonna pull the rug out of people, but then they're gonna have to be a subscriber to your service, of course, and or my service to continue to get this video.
50:41
SPEAKER_01: And while I have legacy, the legacy users are going to get a reduced rate, Tommy.
50:47
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
50:47
SPEAKER_00: So if you're watching this and you want to get on the legacy at least my rate, please get to the Agble website.
50:55
SPEAKER_00: Say I want this is free currently to get on Jim's thing, but we're not going to know whose legacy if you're not on the list.
51:00
SPEAKER_00: And then one day we're just gonna change the list and say, This is now paid content.
51:05
SPEAKER_00: So, as we say, sometimes sometimes free is too expensive.
51:09
SPEAKER_00: This show, another 20 weeks free.
51:12
SPEAKER_00: Don't say we didn't tell you, but we did tell you love to see you on the Ag Bull paid side, and of course, Jim will be paid too.
51:18
SPEAKER_00: My wife and I will be traveling out to see you in a few weeks, Mr.
51:21
SPEAKER_00: Jim.
51:22
SPEAKER_01: Sure.
51:22
SPEAKER_00: And I don't know what the weather's like in August in DC, but I oh it's a swamp.
51:26
SPEAKER_01: Remember, DC was built on a swamp.
51:28
SPEAKER_00: Maybe maybe I'll push it back to September.
51:31
SPEAKER_01: September might be better, better time.
51:34
SPEAKER_01: But uh, I'm going, I'm leaving this show to go to a barbecue with my good friend Paul Myers and his wife Diane, longtime USDA official and then private industry official.
51:45
SPEAKER_01: And then we're gonna play Canasta.
51:47
SPEAKER_01: And uh what is Canasta?
51:48
SPEAKER_01: You said Canasta is a good Catholic card game.
51:50
SPEAKER_01: Look, is that legal play it in Costa?
51:52
SPEAKER_01: Is it legal?
51:53
SPEAKER_00: Do you owe taxes if you win?
51:55
SPEAKER_01: I'm a I'm a sore loser.
51:57
SPEAKER_01: I'm sorry with cards.
51:58
SPEAKER_01: I gotta win.
51:59
SPEAKER_01: I gotta win.
51:59
SPEAKER_00: How many extra of those Canasta cards you got in your pocket?
52:04
SPEAKER_00: Wild home, brother.
52:05
SPEAKER_01: While cards again, lots of moving parts here, and we're here to help you connect the dots, both weather, both trade policy, and uh farm policy.
52:17
SPEAKER_01: And again, they're moving fast, so keep listening and keep reading.
52:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, give us a call.
52:22
SPEAKER_00: Do you have uh is that your positive notes?
52:24
SPEAKER_01: That's my positive notes.
52:25
SPEAKER_01: It's weather, weather, weather.
52:27
SPEAKER_01: I'm seeing this weather.
52:28
SPEAKER_00: Weather Warren Weeksmeyer.
52:29
SPEAKER_00: Everyone, you've been listening to Mr.
52:31
SPEAKER_00: Weeksmeyer, 1855-737 Farm.
52:34
SPEAKER_00: Get a hold of us over here.
52:36
SPEAKER_00: We can't wait to hear from you.
52:37
SPEAKER_00: All right, Jim's got say the name of the game one more time.
52:40
SPEAKER_01: Canasta.
52:43
SPEAKER_01: Look luck with that.
52:44
SPEAKER_01: Double deck, double deck, canasta.
52:46
SPEAKER_00: Report in next week, my friend.
52:48
SPEAKER_00: Okay.