Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Why Gold's Breakout Year is Bullish for Bitcoin in 2026! | Beyond Bitcoin

Transcript

Why Gold's Breakout Year is Bullish for Bitcoin in 2026! | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  We need to talk about price because Bitcoin's price is
• 0:03
  telling us a story most people aren't seeing.
• 0:05
  Meanwhile Bitcoin is moving like dial up Internet in the 90s
• 0:14
  while one of the world's go to assets during periods of global
• 0:17
  stress is going parabolic again. You're talking about gold right?
• 0:21
  I thought this was a Bitcoin only channel.
• 0:22
  Yes, but wait, don't click off. Gold doesn't move like this
• 0:25
  unless something is wrong, like sovereign nations preparing for
• 0:29
  some kind of massive currency devaluation.
• 0:32
  Wrong. I'm listening.
• 0:33
  Just this past week, the largest hedge fund manager in the world
• 0:36
  spoke, and what he said gives us a glimpse into what 2026 may
• 0:40
  look like. And more importantly, it helps
• 0:42
  us explain why the setup forming right now could be one of the
• 0:45
  most bullish moments for Bitcoin we've ever seen.
• 0:49
  I'm oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin.
• 0:52
  Let's dive in. Like I said in the intro, we
• 1:00
  need to talk about the price. Bitcoin is flatter than a
• 1:02
  pancake under a hydraulic press, but gold and silver are hockey
• 1:07
  sticking. And while most people shrug and
• 1:09
  say that's boring, smart money doesn't shrug at gold.
• 1:13
  They pay attention. Hold at all time highs and
• 1:16
  people pawning their jewelry 13 years ago and then it was
• 1:19
  supposed to be the thing to hold during the 20 tens and now all
• 1:22
  of a sudden this year. Why this year?
• 1:25
  And is it central banks? But that doesn't explain the
• 1:27
  rest of the metals trade. No, right.
• 1:28
  It doesn't. I mean, I think what's going on
• 1:30
  is that that the, the narrative has really changed.
• 1:33
  Like, like what we've been saying all along about gold is
• 1:35
  that it's an asset that's not replicable and it's nobody's
• 1:38
  liability. And that's why it's been the
• 1:41
  currency for millennia. And during a period the time
• 1:44
  when it was clear when like the dollar took that role of the
• 1:47
  currency of the world, it wasn't clear as to why you should have
• 1:53
  gold. But now that we're seeing kind
• 1:54
  of cracks in the dollar, and that's partly because of what's
• 1:57
  happened with Russian reserves being confiscated, partly we saw
• 2:02
  with the big inflation because of all the money printing that
• 2:05
  happened during COVID, the the, the rising national debt.
• 2:08
  So we're seeing now that that the narrative is kind of been
• 2:10
  flipped on its head and we are seeing reasons as to why gold is
• 2:14
  that currency. And I think that's what's
• 2:16
  driving the price. Is something going on behind
• 2:18
  closed doors? Probably because closed doors
• 2:20
  are usually closed so something can go on behind them.
• 2:23
  Shouldn't Bitcoin be going up at the same rate?
• 2:26
  Well, historically, when gold makes such dramatic moves
• 2:29
  upwards, Bitcoin tends to follow it roughly in two to three
• 2:33
  months afterward with similar violent moves.
• 2:36
  Gold is not a trade. Gold is fear with a long memory.
• 2:39
  And that brings us to a phrase that matters more than price
• 2:42
  targets. Recently at the New York Times
• 2:44
  Deal Book Summit, Larry Fink, the world's largest asset
• 2:47
  manager, you know, the CEO of BlackRock, described Bitcoin as
• 2:51
  an asset of fear. Not a meme, not a gamble, a
• 2:56
  hedge against things that are breaking.
• 2:58
  I think we need to. Get back to what is the purpose,
• 3:01
  What is the purpose of Bitcoin? Then we gave the stable coin,
• 3:06
  you know, the 13 1/2 trillion dollars that BlackRock manage on
• 3:10
  behalf of our clients. It's basically managing hope.
• 3:14
  That's all it is. I mean, why would anybody invest
• 3:16
  in a 30 year outcome unless you're hopeful in 30 years
• 3:18
  you're going to have the compounding effect?
• 3:22
  Bitcoin is an asset of fear. And when you're less fearful,
• 3:28
  like we had a trade agreement with China, you saw a shift
• 3:33
  downward. There is conversations this week
• 3:36
  that there may be some type of settlement in Ukraine.
• 3:40
  Bitcoin fell a little bit. So you own Bitcoin because
• 3:45
  you're frightened of your physical security.
• 3:48
  You own it because you're frightened of your financial
• 3:51
  security, the long term fundamental reason you own it
• 3:54
  because the debasement of financial assets because of
• 3:58
  deficits. And so to me even the movement
• 4:02
  in the last week and we've had about a 2025% drawdown and this
• 4:06
  is the third time since I bet was created our our ETF.
• 4:10
  Then some people say, is that really insurance?
• 4:12
  Right, if you had bought it at $125,000.
• 4:14
  And it's now sitting at 90 some odd $1000 you're saying if?
• 4:17
  You bought it for a trade, you know it's a very volatile asset.
• 4:20
  You're going to have to be really good at market timing,
• 4:22
  which most people aren't. If you're buy it as a hedge
• 4:26
  against all your hope you know then it has a a meaningful
• 4:31
  impact on a portfolio. An asset of fear, Did you hear
• 4:35
  that? That phrase matters because
• 4:38
  sovereign wealth funds don't chase upside.
• 4:40
  They price existential risk. And when they classify something
• 4:45
  as an asset of fear, they're saying this is what we hold when
• 4:50
  the rest of the system fails us. And Americans need digital
• 4:54
  assets and we're going to embrace this.
• 4:56
  And I think a massive advertisement for Bitcoin with
• 5:01
  the Ukrainian Russian war and especially the sanctions where
• 5:06
  the where we seize $300 billion worth of treasury assets from
• 5:11
  the Russians. I think the Chinese have $3
• 5:14
  trillion worth of assets and that might have got their
• 5:16
  attention and probably pretty much that the conclusion is if
• 5:22
  you're any nation state in the world and you think you might
• 5:25
  ever be in conflict with another nation state and you're holding
• 5:29
  their credit derivatives or their currency derivatives or
• 5:32
  their currency or gold in one of their banks, that's not really
• 5:36
  proper anymore. So I think that I think that's
• 5:39
  got everybody scratching their head saying I, I need I, I don't
• 5:43
  trust the currency as a long term store of value A, and I
• 5:48
  don't trust my assets to not be seized B.
• 5:53
  What am I going to do? And then right in the middle of
• 5:56
  that, you see things like Bitcoin poking their head up
• 6:00
  saying check me out. Now ask yourself, you hold
• 6:03
  Bitcoin, They're studying Bitcoin.
• 6:07
  That alone should change how you think about what you own.
• 6:10
  Let's ground this in reality. As I said before, a sovereign
• 6:13
  wealth fund isn't a hedge fund. It isn't a venture fund.
• 6:17
  It isn't day trading candles. It's a national survival
• 6:21
  vehicle. This fund exists to stabilize
• 6:24
  economies, preserve generational wealth, and protect against
• 6:28
  systematic failure. A move into Bitcoin to avoid
• 6:31
  existential risk may mean an imminent currency devaluation
• 6:35
  where nations create trillions and money printer go Burr.
• 6:39
  Could this be on the horizon for us?
• 6:42
  So. What are the consequences of
• 6:44
  another big print of more inflation?
• 6:47
  Why is this so problematic? Yeah, Well, they're they're very
• 6:51
  simple. I mean, if you grow the money
• 6:52
  supply, you take rates down, which is what Trump wants to do,
• 6:56
  and you're forced into yield curve control.
• 6:57
  Let's let's talk about, let me define what yield curve control
• 7:00
  is. Let's just talk about that for a
• 7:01
  moment. I mean, we're in a sovereign
• 7:03
  debt crisis. And what that means is that the
• 7:05
  government, the US government is spending way too much money way
• 7:08
  too quickly. And the value of bonds have been
• 7:11
  going straight S while the value of gold and Bitcoin, the
• 7:13
  alternatives have been going straight north.
• 7:16
  And what's going to ultimately happen if we don't get this
• 7:19
  under control, and I think it's unlikely that we will, is that
• 7:22
  the US federal government bonds are going to start to sell off
• 7:24
  even worse. And, you know, as, as you know,
• 7:27
  as most people now know, US interest expenses are about $1.3
• 7:30
  trillion. That's larger than defense.
• 7:32
  It's large. It's as large as Social
• 7:34
  Security. And you're going to get to the
• 7:36
  point where the interest expense is going to eat up the entire
• 7:38
  budget. And so you get into what we call
• 7:41
  what James Lavish and I have called and others have called it
• 7:43
  a death, death doom loop where you're, you know, your interest
• 7:46
  costs go up. That makes your deficit larger.
• 7:50
  The larger deficit means you have to sell more bonds.
• 7:53
  You're selling bonds into a fixed supply of buyers of bonds.
• 7:56
  They don't want them at that interest rate.
• 7:57
  So the interest costs go up more.
• 7:59
  And you can see where we're heading here.
• 8:01
  So, and this has happened in the past.
• 8:03
  And, and So what happens in to solve that, what the government
• 8:06
  does is they say, OK, fine, we're not going to let the
• 8:09
  interest rates go up beyond a certain point.
• 8:11
  We're going to institute what we call yield curve control, which
• 8:13
  means they are going to buy the bonds with money they print and
• 8:16
  they can do that. I don't think any sovereign bond
• 8:19
  of the United States will ever default because we won't let
• 8:21
  that happen. But you can effectively default
• 8:24
  if you print money to pay the bonds back.
• 8:27
  And so the bonds, you know, yes, we're going to pay you what
• 8:29
  you're entitled to get in principal and interest, but
• 8:31
  what's it going to buy because of the inflation that that's
• 8:34
  going to create? And so, you know, it's not
• 8:37
  unusual to see this happen. It happens in emerging
• 8:39
  countries. It's happened in other countries
• 8:41
  that have pursued the policies that we're pursuing, and it
• 8:43
  actually kind of happened in the United States.
• 8:45
  I think there's a very interesting analog that I'd like
• 8:47
  to bring up. You know, coming out of World
• 8:49
  War Two, we had about the same level of debt to GDP.
• 8:52
  It was around 100 and 10120%. And that was because obviously
• 8:56
  running the war was an existential threat and we had to
• 8:58
  borrow a ton of money to get through World War 2.
• 9:01
  And so, you know, we came out of that.
• 9:03
  And when we were in that war, what they did, what the Fed did
• 9:05
  was they said, you know, we're going to cap the the short term
• 9:08
  bills at 3/8 of a percent and we're going to cap the longer
• 9:11
  term, you know, bonds at 2.5%. And so, you know, people who own
• 9:16
  those really got screwed and, and they did that by using their
• 9:20
  own newly printed money to buy those bills and buy those bonds.
• 9:24
  Well, as you might imagine, that massively grew the money supply.
• 9:27
  And some people don't remember this, but it's a fact.
• 9:29
  I thought it was pointed out recently and I retweeted it on
• 9:31
  Twitter that, you know, the CPI in June of 1947, the CPI was up
• 9:36
  17.6% year over year. In, you know, February of 1951,
• 9:42
  the CPI was up 21.0%. So what you see is if we get
• 9:47
  into a situation where we're going to have yield curve
• 9:50
  control, you know, the government's going to have to
• 9:52
  print a lot of money, fine, but that printing is going to cause
• 9:56
  a lot more inflation. And so, you know, the 9%
• 9:59
  inflation that we saw is the peak in the COVID example.
• 10:02
  It could become even higher in the next time around.
• 10:04
  And I remember the 70s very well.
• 10:06
  I was a teenager but I remember the 70s very well and there were
• 10:09
  like 3 waves of inflation. History shows you once you get
• 10:12
  into an inflationary cycle, it's very hard to stop it.
• 10:15
  Now here's where things get interesting and where most
• 10:17
  people miss the plot. As I mentioned, historically
• 10:20
  gold moves 1st and Bitcoin follows later.
• 10:23
  Gold absorbs the fear and Bitcoin absorbs the monetary
• 10:26
  distrust. It's not ideology, that's
• 10:29
  observable behavior. Gold tells us something is
• 10:33
  wrong, and Bitcoin tells us that we can no longer trust the fix.
• 10:38
  And if gold is breaking out again, ask yourself what
• 10:41
  follows. But more, yeah.
• 10:42
  So, So what? What do you want people to take
• 10:44
  away? Well, it's a, it's a very
• 10:45
  important thing here. So they, if you look at them
• 10:48
  correlated and I'm, I'm kind of taking the more modern period.
• 10:51
  I mean, in the beginning Bitcoin was just going nuts and it's,
• 10:53
  it's kind of unfair. It was, it had an unfair
• 10:55
  advantage. So let's kind of take 2018 to
• 10:57
  present. In our last 6-7 years, Bitcoin
• 11:01
  and gold have really traded in lockstep.
• 11:02
  I mean they both represent protection from monetary
• 11:05
  debasement that can't be printed.
• 11:06
  OK, that's. First thing.
• 11:07
  Second thing is bitcoins performed more it's it's it's
• 11:11
  gone up more than gold and percentage wise, but it's also
• 11:16
  been much more volatile than gold.
• 11:18
  So I'm not on the upswings it goes up faster, but on the
• 11:20
  downswings it goes down faster too.
• 11:22
  OK. And then the Third Point that I
• 11:24
  think is very important from the chart to take away is that gold
• 11:27
  is more widely distributed. Everybody owns it, the central
• 11:30
  banks are buying it. And I think it's going to be the
• 11:33
  first go to solution for most people to protect themselves
• 11:35
  from monetary debasement because Bitcoins new and it's riskier
• 11:38
  and it's volatile. Not everyone believes it and I
• 11:40
  understand that I didn't believe in the beginning either.
• 11:42
  And and so when monetary debasement start to show up,
• 11:46
  gold tends to move first. It just does.
• 11:48
  And so the really best part of this chart, if you look at is
• 11:51
  you look at like 2019 and 2020 when the Powell pivot occurred
• 11:55
  because of the repo blowout. And then when we had COVID and
• 11:58
  we printed a ton of money, gold took off like a rocket ship.
• 12:02
  I mean, everyone's like, you know, OK, I know what this money
• 12:04
  printing means. Buy gold.
• 12:05
  And they did. And it went up with some Bitcoin
• 12:07
  with flatlined for quite some time.
• 12:09
  There's a real lag. And then one day Bitcoin woke up
• 12:12
  and said, oh, you know what? This is protection too.
• 12:15
  And they came into Bitcoin and it just, it went up even more
• 12:17
  percentage wise than gold. But there was a lag between the
• 12:20
  two. And then of course when we
• 12:22
  started tightening in 2022, you know, gold went flat to down,
• 12:27
  Bitcoin collapsed, Bitcoin went way down.
• 12:29
  And so you know, it went from 65 to 15 and so.
• 12:33
  You know this. Is a volatile form of sound
• 12:36
  money. And it's not just gold, silver
• 12:38
  is also hitting all time highs. This is where the survival
• 12:41
  thesis gets uncomfortable. Silver isn't just money, it's
• 12:46
  industrial necessity. And when silver starts moving
• 12:49
  with gold, it usually means one thing.
• 12:52
  Demand isn't speculative, it's defensive.
• 12:55
  Even for you look at platinum up 9%, silver's up another 9%, you
• 12:59
  know, cover. I mean, they always joke the
• 13:01
  cure for high prices, high prices, and that's more because
• 13:04
  you might bring on more supply. I don't know how realistic that
• 13:06
  is. But also just because on some
• 13:07
  level you get this kind of speculative fervor breaking out.
• 13:10
  I can't imagine you want that because it's going to make the
• 13:12
  whole asset class more more volatile, I'd imagine.
• 13:14
  Right. I mean, I'd say, you know,
• 13:16
  silver definitely looks at this point, you know, somewhat
• 13:19
  overbought. There are things going on
• 13:21
  relative to a export restrictions from China relative
• 13:24
  to silver. You know, well, like you say
• 13:28
  about supply, it's unlike supply really can't come online unless
• 13:32
  people do start selling their gold jewelry like they did back
• 13:35
  in the day. We aren't really seeing that.
• 13:36
  So it's like, you know, I, I'm, I'm never going to argue with,
• 13:40
  with high prices, you know, considering that we that we
• 13:42
  manage a gold fund. But but it's, it's I, I think,
• 13:46
  you know, gold has been pretty orderly.
• 13:48
  The silver trades been, you know, maybe that's a little bit
• 13:50
  overextended, yeah. But but gold's been pretty
• 13:53
  orderly, and we'll take it. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, they're
• 13:57
  all different assets, but they all share the same message.
• 14:01
  Survival assets are pumping and survival assets don't pump
• 14:04
  because some influence around TikTok got excited.
• 14:07
  And I have. Said we will have $5 days.
• 14:09
  I just said that like 2 weeks ago.
• 14:11
  So here we are guys. We're going to have $10 days
• 14:14
  next. And here's the uncomfortable
• 14:15
  truth. Retail investors debate price
• 14:16
  targets, but sovereign funds debate system stability.
• 14:20
  They're asking themselves what happens if our debt can't be
• 14:23
  rolled over? What happens if our currencies
• 14:26
  fracture? What happens if the trust in our
• 14:28
  system collapses and Bitcoin quietly sits there with no
• 14:32
  counterparty risk, no dilution, no political discretion?
• 14:37
  When sovereign wealth funds start considering Bitcoin,
• 14:40
  they're not asking will it 10X? They're asking what still works
• 14:45
  if everything else doesn't. The good news is, you already
• 14:49
  own it, right? Right, and this is the part that
• 14:54
  people avoid saying out loud. You don't need more Bitcoin to
• 14:57
  benefit from this shift, you just need conviction alignment.
• 15:02
  If sovereign capital is accumulating Bitcoin slowly,
• 15:05
  quietly, strategically, then volatility isn't your enemy.
• 15:10
  Misunderstanding is if Bitcoin is becoming a survival asset,
• 15:15
  then holding it isn't passive, it's positioning.
• 15:18
  So let's recap. Gold and silver are breaking all
• 15:21
  time highs and Bitcoin will likely follow.
• 15:24
  Sovereign wealth funds are circling around Bitcoin and
• 15:26
  Larry Fink is calling it an asset of fear.
• 15:30
  These are not isolated events, they're one story, a story about
• 15:34
  survival. And the smartest money in the
• 15:36
  room isn't chasing yield. It's preparing for reality.
• 15:41
  Thank you so much for watching this video.
• 15:43
  If you like what you see and you want to see more, make sure you
• 15:45
  hit that like button below. Or you can subscribe to the
• 15:48
  Simply Bitcoin channel for more content like this.
• 15:50
  We're coming out with it every single day of the week.
• 15:52
  Also, don't forget to hit that notification bell.
• 15:55
  I'm oceans. This is beyond Bitcoin until
• 15:58
  next.