Latest / Earn Your Leisure / The Market Has Never Peaked in June Since 1950! Here's Why It Matters!
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: All right, let's get to it, ladies and gentlemen. Investment
- 0:03Speaker 1: fact of the week, Ah.
- 0:06Speaker 2: This is a really good one.
- 0:07Speaker 3: If you take the data s and p annual highs
- 0:11Speaker 3: per month since nineteen fifty through twenty twenty five, do
- 0:15Speaker 3: you know that never in the month of June has
- 0:19Speaker 3: the market peaked in June? So this is a really,
- 0:24Speaker 3: really great time to buy. Usually in July we've only
- 0:29Speaker 3: had three new highs for the year. August we've had three.
- 0:34Speaker 3: Normally in November and December is when we have the peak.
- 0:37Speaker 3: So when I was going back and looking through the
- 0:40Speaker 3: historical data, I thought it was very fascinating that it
- 0:43Speaker 3: slows down in April and May and June. The market
- 0:47Speaker 3: never has peaked since nineteen fifty in the middle of
- 0:51Speaker 3: the year. This is one of the greatest runs I
- 0:53Speaker 3: think we've ever seen in tech history. We could talk
- 0:55Speaker 3: about valuations in pe ratio and chill ratio later, but
- 0:59Speaker 3: what this tells me is for the second half of
- 1:03Speaker 3: the year, the market is going to be on an
- 1:05Speaker 3: absolute tear and if you are afraid or if you're new,
- 1:08Speaker 3: June is going to be a great opportunity to buy.
- 1:11Speaker 3: Never in history since nineteen fifty. Has the market peaked
- 1:15Speaker 3: at this month? Now, it's going to be the time
- 1:17Speaker 3: to buy this month, roll into the gains for later
- 1:20Speaker 3: in the year and you'll be a Okay, see you
- 1:22Speaker 3: at investments. So you have a great opportunity to buy
- 1:25Speaker 3: in August as well. But November and December should be
- 1:28Speaker 3: absolutely amazing. That's investing fact of the week.
- 1:31Speaker 4: Damn man, I guess the buying may go away. Things
- 1:34Speaker 4: didn't really old steady. No, the Nasdaq was up eight
- 1:39Speaker 4: percent for the month. It's I feel like we have
- 1:43Speaker 4: these conversations more and more every week with the I
- 1:47Speaker 4: don't know if it's fear. Maybe it's anxiety of is
- 1:50Speaker 4: this going to crash? What are we looking at? What
- 1:52Speaker 4: are we seeing? There's no way that this be real housed,
- 1:54Speaker 4: it's going to be sustainable, and every time we look,
- 1:58Speaker 4: I mean, there's a new metric, and I know ninety
- 2:00Speaker 4: nine gets compared a lot, and there's obviously some huge differences.
- 2:04Speaker 4: Number one, the amount of revenue being brought in, the
- 2:06Speaker 4: amount of earnings that's being brought in, the profitability a
- 2:09Speaker 4: lot of these companies where those didn't exist in ninety nine.
- 2:11Speaker 2: I feel like the new rules are being made right now.
- 2:15Speaker 4: Right, it just feels like if you you have to
- 2:18Speaker 4: be flexible with some of history in a sense, right
- 2:23Speaker 4: as I listened to a lot of experts, I was
- 2:26Speaker 4: up watching Jensen last night and just blown away.
- 2:29Speaker 2: Watched Tom Lee, was watching See all.
- 2:32Speaker 4: Day, and I'm just they don't know what to make
- 2:35Speaker 4: of what we're seeing, and so remain disciplined. But as
- 2:39Speaker 4: sometimes you just have to make adjustments in the sense of,
- 2:44Speaker 4: you know, where's the new entry point. A lot of
- 2:46Speaker 4: times I get acted, I mean probably four to five
- 2:48Speaker 4: times a day, what's the entry point when I'm like, well,
- 2:50Speaker 4: let's see what this thing settles. Well, maybe it doesn't settle,
- 2:53Speaker 4: and so now we have to be adjustable with some
- 2:55Speaker 4: of our plan. But that doesn't mean we don't remain disciplined.
- 2:59Speaker 4: So I think that would be my rule of the week.
- 3:02Speaker 4: It would be have a plan, be disciplined, but also
- 3:06Speaker 4: have the flexibility to adjust.
- 3:08Speaker 2: And I'll say this too.
- 3:09Speaker 3: The selling may and go away axiom was always dumb,
- 3:14Speaker 3: and it was for institutional investors. I always like to
- 3:18Speaker 3: go to other business rooms, right, Bob Johnson never did that,
- 3:21Speaker 3: would be et Stein Brannan never did it with the Yankees.
- 3:25Speaker 2: Dolan never did it with New York.
- 3:27Speaker 3: We have to make sure because a lot of times
- 3:30Speaker 3: in media, people will give you advice on what to
- 3:33Speaker 3: do and do the complete opposite. For example, like if
- 3:36Speaker 3: you take Ray Dalio in Bridgewater, one of the greatest
- 3:40Speaker 3: firms of all time even now through principles and changing
- 3:44Speaker 3: world order, he's telling you about it imminent collapse right then.
- 3:48Speaker 2: He did this is in the eighties and the nineties,
- 3:50Speaker 2: in the.
- 3:50Speaker 3: Early two thousands, while selling a diversified portfolio strategy to
- 3:55Speaker 3: every continent on earth. Please be mindful of the information
- 3:59Speaker 3: that you're given on public everyway, because most billionaires are
- 4:02Speaker 3: not going to share their strategies on what they're actually
- 4:05Speaker 3: doing in real time.
- 4:06Speaker 1: Well, you know what billionaire actually this year strategy was
- 4:09Speaker 1: Mike Novogratz, And that was somebody that we've had on
- 4:12Speaker 1: marketing here. And then when we went on his podcast
- 4:15Speaker 1: and he was saying about Goal and after that Goal
- 4:18Speaker 1: went up like seventy percent, he talked about Bigcoin when
- 4:22Speaker 1: it was, you know, at a low point, a variety
- 4:26Speaker 1: of different things he actually was talking to He was
- 4:29Speaker 1: talking bad about XRP during the pandemic, and I think
- 4:35Speaker 1: they we actually they was like, yo, can y'all cut
- 4:37Speaker 1: that part out? Because then XTRP ended up in the dumpster.
- 4:44Speaker 2: But he was.
- 4:45Speaker 1: He was one of the first billionaires to actually get
- 4:47Speaker 1: on a broadcast and be like Yo, this no. And
- 4:52Speaker 1: then everybody in the comments was like, Oh, he's trying
- 4:54Speaker 1: to derail you. He don't listen to him. He's trying
- 4:58Speaker 1: to sabotage your portfolio. Make sure you buy it. And
- 5:03Speaker 1: we've seen what happened to XRP.
- 5:05Speaker 2: Ever since we're seeing but I do say that.
- 5:11Speaker 1: Mike will be at investments. Get your tickets to invest fast.
- 5:15Speaker 1: That's the absolutely one of my favorite investments for sure,
- 5:18Speaker 1: one of the few billionaires that will have it. Investments
- 5:21Speaker 1: Stay tuned, stay tuned to learn has been issued. I
- 5:23Speaker 1: was gonna say, like, we're watching rules being changed. Right
- 5:27Speaker 1: when you hear, guys, we just saw Mike Michael Berry
- 5:31Speaker 1: again with another proclamation. Right, Tessa's numbers are fake and
- 5:35Speaker 1: Vidio's numbers are fake. Okay, you were right in two
- 5:38Speaker 1: thousand and eight. How many what's the track record?
- 5:40Speaker 4: Since we just saw a Berkshire Hathaway who said they
- 5:43Speaker 4: would be sitting on the sideline just invest ten billion
- 5:46Speaker 4: dollars into Google mhd larship under new leadership three weeks ago. Hey,
- 5:52Speaker 4: the evaluations are too elevated. We're gonna wait, We're gonna
- 5:56Speaker 4: sit this out. We got a four hundred billion dollar
- 5:58Speaker 4: treasure chests. Today they allocated ten billion into Google because
- 6:01Speaker 4: of the AI demand.
- 6:03Speaker 2: Right, we're seeing this. We saw Michael Salas said he
- 6:05Speaker 2: would never.
- 6:07Speaker 3: Us bitcoin, and here y'all kill me tonight.
- 6:10Speaker 2: I want an apology. You would never sell his bitcoin? Yep,
- 6:15Speaker 2: lo and behold he has now so big.
- 6:17Speaker 3: Sell you now you're starting to sell off and some
- 6:20Speaker 3: of the derivative derivative products that you made as a
- 6:22Speaker 3: result to raise cash. And da da dah, I get it.
- 6:24Speaker 3: I'm not going because I've told in stock Club. Let
- 6:27Speaker 3: me get some panazin chat the issues that he faced
- 6:32Speaker 3: taking on those institutions, right, so they can suppress the
- 6:37Speaker 3: market long enough to cause uncomfortability for you, to make
- 6:43Speaker 3: you reverse your course, and to embarrass you publicly. And
- 6:47Speaker 3: and to your point, like you said, most funds are
- 6:50Speaker 3: not going to tell you their book of business on
- 6:52Speaker 3: air for their competition to derail them. They're often times
- 6:58Speaker 3: going to tell you the exact opposite of what they're doing.
- 7:00Speaker 3: And that's why it's really important to go through the
- 7:03Speaker 3: filings and see and even we're workshore, even though they
- 7:06Speaker 3: have a bunch of cash on hand, they're under the leadership.
- 7:09Speaker 3: He wants to get out of buffet shadow, and he's
- 7:13Speaker 3: going to do so through tech.
- 7:16Speaker 4: It's evident, and that's it goes back to that idea
- 7:21Speaker 4: of just being able to adjust. I'm not sure if
- 7:23Speaker 4: everybody was witnessing this live, but Friday during trading around
- 7:28Speaker 4: three twenty three or two went out and we'll talk
- 7:30Speaker 4: about that later. Within Video and arm and Microsoft, and
- 7:33Speaker 4: at three point thirty you start to see companies running,
- 7:37Speaker 4: broad cops running, microns run and saying this is running.
- 7:40Speaker 2: You see all these companies running.
- 7:41Speaker 4: But the one company that was kind of falling down
- 7:43Speaker 4: was in Video, and it talks about being adjustable.
- 7:46Speaker 2: Why is in video falling down?
- 7:47Speaker 4: Well, here comes of rebalancing that the act that you
- 7:49Speaker 4: never get to see, you just get to feel a
- 7:51Speaker 4: part of. Right, Well, why would they rebalance out of
- 7:54Speaker 4: in video, this company that is going to be leading
- 7:56Speaker 4: to AI dominance for the next five to ten years,
- 8:00Speaker 4: if not longer.
- 8:01Speaker 2: Well, if you look at the largest allocation in SMP.
- 8:04Speaker 4: When people see opportunity and they want to have liquidity,
- 8:07Speaker 4: they're going to try to find the attack it from
- 8:10Speaker 4: their largest holding, and their largest holding SMP is wait
- 8:12Speaker 4: to eight percent. So let's rebounce, Let's take some money
- 8:15Speaker 4: off the table there, and let's start spreading it into
- 8:18Speaker 4: other companies as well. What does that mean. That means
- 8:20Speaker 4: is a broad exposure to AI. Not only are we
- 8:23Speaker 4: seeing institutions and seeing it. And so if the video
- 8:26Speaker 4: goes from eight point eight percent of SMP down to
- 8:29Speaker 4: eight point four still the largest allocation, but now there's
- 8:32Speaker 4: more liquidity to put it in other companies. And we
- 8:35Speaker 4: kind of saw that happening at the end, like literally
- 8:38Speaker 4: at the end of the day on Friday, if you
- 8:39Speaker 4: look at the charts from about three point thirty to four,
- 8:42Speaker 4: you saw a drastic climb up in a lot of companies.
- 8:45Speaker 2: That what was happening.
- 8:46Speaker 4: But if the average person is watching it, it's like,
- 8:48Speaker 4: oh my gosh, is it over? And then here we go,
- 8:51Speaker 4: obviously spoke yesterday and here we are within video climbing
- 8:55Speaker 4: back up over thirteen dollars.
- 8:59Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna say this last point too. Please write
- 9:01Speaker 3: this down. The hedge Fund business is in the capital
- 9:05Speaker 3: accumulation business. You are in the holding empires for twenty
- 9:10Speaker 3: years business. The two totally different things. To everyone who
- 9:15Speaker 3: kept asking me, well, what's up with the Microsoft and
- 9:19Speaker 3: is it going to the rotation affected them and everyone
- 9:24Speaker 3: who killed every software stock and some were valuable, some
- 9:28Speaker 3: were not. But you have to realize AI is a
- 9:31Speaker 3: software as well.
- 9:33Speaker 2: That's the interesting part.
- 9:35Speaker 3: Now. Now Microsoft is starting to make a move and
- 9:38Speaker 3: everyone's like, Okay, it's coming back from the dead. That
- 9:41Speaker 3: company is too valuable to go anywhere. But the hedge
- 9:44Speaker 3: funds are in the capital accumulation asset under management business.
- 9:49Speaker 3: You are in the hold companies and things that are
- 9:52Speaker 3: valuable for a very long time business. They are not
- 9:55Speaker 3: the same. Please do not get tricked out of your spot.
- 9:58Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 9:58Speaker 4: Another prom is sample of the market adjusting, and I
- 10:03Speaker 4: think Snowflake became a trigger for that. Right, Snowflake becomes
- 10:07Speaker 4: a software company when we're talking about that five layer
- 10:09Speaker 4: kick again application software, Snowflake shows revenue growth. Okay, that
- 10:14Speaker 4: means that this sector actually has something. And so you
- 10:17Speaker 4: watch Snowflake, you watch Service now, you watch Microsoft that
- 10:20Speaker 4: was caught inside of that.
- 10:22Speaker 2: You watch the I G V E.
- 10:23Speaker 4: T F start to move up, it starts hitting those
- 10:26Speaker 4: those moving averages where it shows growth. That trend line
- 10:29Speaker 4: starts to move and now you see momentum going in
- 10:32Speaker 4: and so things are happening, and it might start with
- 10:35Speaker 4: one company and trigger and tire sector.
- 10:38Speaker 2: So you got to be ready to be prepared. Shout.
- 10:40Speaker 2: Actually a question. I forgot to mention that at the beginning,
- 10:44Speaker 2: welcome back can welcome back?
- 10:47Speaker 3: Speaking of which, is there any person that you know
- 10:50Speaker 3: that is above one hundred million dollars that's sold out
- 10:52Speaker 3: of any asset that you know of less than two years? No,
- 10:58Speaker 3: not a hunting see even at that's telling go ahead
- 11:03Speaker 3: with shot. I just want to be the last point.
- 11:06Speaker 1: Yeah, well, well it depends on how you define something
- 11:09Speaker 1: out of an asset. Because Trump has been trading like
- 11:13Speaker 1: a maniac. Nancy Pelosi, she's been traded like a maniac.
- 11:17Speaker 2: You know Trump, We're not doing that. I don't know.
- 11:19Speaker 2: I've seen him. I've seen him, or do you? Okay,
- 11:27Speaker 2: I don't know, Trup. I was like, damn, I didn't
- 11:30Speaker 2: get that to my boy. I don't know