Latest / The SPY Trader / The Race to 7,000: Nvidia Earnings and the Great Rotation

Transcript

The Race to 7,000: Nvidia Earnings and the Great Rotation · The SPY Trader

• 0:00
  Good morning and welcome back to the Spy Trader podcast !
• 0:04
  I am your host , Sunny Sideup , and I am so glad you are tuning in with me .
• 0:08
  It is 5 am on Sunday , February 22nd , 2026 , here in the Pacific time zone .
• 0:16
  We have a massive week ahead of us , friends .
• 0:18
  The U.S.
• 0:19
  stock market is facing a highstakes double test .
• 0:23
  We are looking at whether the S&P 500 can finally punch through that major 7,000 psychological barrier after spending some time consolidating near 6,900 .
• 0:35
  It is all about the AI growth story meeting a broadening rally into value and smallcap sectors .
• 0:42
  On the macro side , the Federal Reserve is currently in a datadependent pause .
• 0:48
  We are sitting at a rate of 3.5 to 3.75 percent , but everyone is biting their nails waiting for Friday’s Producer Price Index , or PPI , report .
• 0:59
  If that inflation number comes in hot , it could solidify a higherforlonger narrative and put more pressure on longterm bonds like TLT .
• 1:08
  Plus , the bond market is already a bit nervous with Kevin Warsh expected to take over the Fed in May .
• 1:16
  Right now , the 10year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.21 percent , which has bond funds like AGG and BND on edge .
• 1:25
  Looking at sector performance , we are seeing the Great Rotation .
• 1:29
  While the big tech names in the XLK and Nasdaq100 QQQ have been shaky as investors wonder if that 600 billion dollars in AI spending will actually pay off , smallcaps in the IWM and value sectors like Energy and Industrials are actually doing great .
• 1:47
  In fact , the equalweighted S&P 500 is doing better than the regular marketcapweighted SPY right now .
• 1:54
  Not everyone is winning , though .
• 1:56
  Healthcare , specifically the XLV , is reeling from Medicare Advantage rate shocks , with UnitedHealth Group , or UNH , seeing significant pressure .
• 2:06
  This Wednesday , February 25th , is the big one : Nvidia reports earnings .
• 2:11
  This is the primary catalyst for the week .
• 2:15
  Analysts expect an EPS around 1.52 on 65 billion in revenue .
• 2:21
  Their guidance on the Blackwell architecture will decide if tech reclaims its highs or if we enter an AI doom loop .
• 2:28
  We also have Home Depot reporting Tuesday and Lowe’s on Wednesday to give us a look at the housing market , while Salesforce and Snowflake will tell us if companies are actually making money from AI software yet .
• 2:41
  Now , let’s talk strategy .
• 2:44
  For your broad core holding , I recommend looking at the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF , or VTI .
• 2:52
  Because of this rotation we are seeing , VTI is preferable to SPY or VOO this week because it captures those mid and smallcap stocks that are currently outperforming .
• 3:03
  If you want to play the tech side , the Invesco QQQ Trust is the way to go , but use a stoploss .
• 3:10
  If Nvidia hits a home run , QQQ will lead the charge to 7,000 , but be careful of a beat and fade if valuations stay stretched .
• 3:19
  For safety , I really like SPDR Gold Shares , or GLD .
• 3:23
  Gold just crossed 5,400 dollars an ounce , and it is a great safehaven hedge against geopolitical tension or a hot PPI report on Friday .
• 3:33
  Finally , for a strategic sector play , check out the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , or XLF .
• 3:41
  Banks are benefiting from a stable yield curve and a manufacturing renaissance .
• 3:46
  As long as unemployment stays stable around 4.6 percent , XLF offers better valuation support than tech .
• 3:54
  It is going to be a wild week , so keep your eyes on the screen and your heart in the game .
• 4:00
  I will see you in a few hours for the next update !