Latest / Uncomfortable Conversations with Josh Szeps / “Don’t F*** it up, Australia” with MP Allegra Spender
Transcript
- 0:00Good day, humans. Welcome to The Safe Space for Dangerous Ideas. Today's guest is one
- 0:07of the most recognisable politicians in Australia. She's a federal member of Parliament.
- 0:12And the uncomfortable conversation, the dangerous idea we are plumbing with Allegra Spender,
- 0:17is that the way that our governments spend money and the way that they raise it in taxation
- 0:24massively benefits older people, wealthier people, and massively disadvantages younger people
- 0:30who are trying to build their wealth for the future. And that if we are going to hold society
- 0:34together and keep liberal democracy robust, we need root and branch reform of things that
- 0:42sound incredibly boring but are actually really important and are fundamental to young
- 0:47humans building productive lives, basically taxes and productivity. As I mentioned, Allegra
- 0:53Spender is a member of Parliament, but not just any member of Parliament. She's an independent
- 0:57federal member of Parliament. So to our American listeners, imagine a person unaffiliated with
- 1:02a political party running in a congressional district against a Republican candidate and
- 1:07a Democratic candidate and beating both of them and going to Washington as a member of
- 1:12Congress. That's what Allegra Spender did with some help. She was part of a wave of independence
- 1:17in the 2022 election that swept aside the moribund decade-old Conservative party in Australia,
- 1:25not through a massive victory from the left, but through a victory of these centrist-centred
- 1:30right independence called the Teals, who largely ran on climate change, economic reform,
- 1:37political integrity, and gender equality. Allegra Spender recently was part of a big analysis
- 1:44of Australian taxation and Australian economic reform, and she has emerged from that balancing
- 1:49with a spring and her step about the importance of economic reform, not just in Australia,
- 1:53but also in the United States and overseas. A significant chunk of this conversation is
- 1:58about something called negative gearing, which is a strange Australian property tax phenomenon
- 2:04that we will go into. Nonetheless, her insights apply equally to all liberal democracies. Prior
- 2:09to her political life, she was a management consultant at McKinsey, and she was a corporate
- 2:14executive, so she knows the business side of things as much as she understands politics. I hope
- 2:20you enjoy it as much as I did, the one and only Allegra Spender.
- 2:24Look, I'm been looking at the tax system for the last three years, and really trying to put
- 2:34tax on the agenda, because I think we've got some big challenges facing the economy, I think,
- 2:39intergenerational equity, young people aren't doing as well as they should be, and it hurts.
- 2:43We've got issues in terms of business productivity and investment, and we have issues in terms
- 2:47of how to make this climate transition as cheap as possible, and all of those are affected
- 2:51by the tax system. So I put forward a green paper last term on the basis that both the
- 2:58major parties didn't want to talk about tax. It was too hot to handle, but if you've got
- 3:02big issues, you actually have to look at all your options or your levers and taxes to
- 3:06be able to ignore. But isn't part of the problem that the last
- 3:08time someone did try to look at it seriously, they were wiped out in an election, which
- 3:12was Bill Shorten. Yeah, I think, I mean, there are lots of reasons why Bill Shorten was wiped
- 3:16out in that election, and interestingly, in his final speech to parliament, his value
- 3:22of victory speech, he said, what I should have done is given everything back in income tax
- 3:27cuts. And I think so, that was his reflection, not that he had to necessarily, some of the
- 3:31elements were wrong, but that he was trying to do it in terms of raising government spending
- 3:36rather than actually returning more money to the people. Which was John Howard's insight
- 3:40during the GST, which is if you make it revenue neutral, then no one can accuse you of introducing
- 3:46a new tax, even though you're introducing a new tax.
- 3:48And to be honest, that was poor heating as well. Like if you look at the big successful
- 3:51tax changes that have been, you know, have managed to make their way through, and where
- 3:55I think most people and also most, you know, governments of all stripes would recognize
- 4:00that the heating reforms and the held reforms were positive things for the Australian system
- 4:04and for the Australian community. They were in revenue neutral. And I think that is the
- 4:09only way you can do this. And while I tax, I mean, I understand that
- 4:12it's important from like a one-keep perspective, but like even as you start to explain it,
- 4:16I can hear listeners' ears glazing over with boredom. Like what, it's such, it sounds
- 4:20like such a, like nobody likes tax. We don't like paying tax. We understand that it's necessary.
- 4:25Yeah, yeah. But how much difference does it really make, whether you take this bit from
- 4:29here or that bit from over there? Look, it really matters. And just, it's boring, but important,
- 4:34I would say. And I think, you know, there's people have a lot of fear about tax. And, and
- 4:40it's sort of go, you know, I don't understand it. And it's, and they're most even difficult.
- 4:44But, you know, so I look at what's going on around the world and around here. And I think,
- 4:49you know, let's talk about young people. If we cannot help this generation of young Australians
- 4:56and coming generations feel like they've got a stake that they can achieve the same milestones,
- 5:01you know, have kids, have a house, have stability as previous generations, then we have big problems,
- 5:06I think, in our country. And when I look at the rise of Trump, I think that a significant part
- 5:10of that was a bunch of people looked forward and saw no hope. And I think that Australians,
- 5:14you know, I talked to your strands of all stripes who are saying, thank you for taking and talking
- 5:18about tax because I, young people are falling behind. And we actually need to do something about
- 5:23this. It is a ticking time bomb for the whole of society. And it's just unfair. So we have to talk
- 5:27about tax. It's big. It is linked to housing. But those two things are distinct and they play
- 5:31into each other. Right. And housing is also, is, is, is going to be very hard and slow to solve as
- 5:37well. So you've got to, I think you really have to look at both of them. So it sounds like you've
- 5:40got two subtext really when you're talking about tax. One, one you've identified there, which is
- 5:44housing. The other is correct me if I'm wrong. The intergenerational transfer of wealth as the
- 5:49boomers retire and suddenly need and many care becomes more expensive. And so, you know, I'll just
- 5:55use Americanized terms because we have about as many American businesses as we do Australians.
- 5:59Social security or the pension becomes more and more expensive. Not such a problem here because
- 6:03we have privatized superannuation as well. But so where the rubber meets the road, it sounds like
- 6:09is that the way that the tax system, I mean, is there any tax system that can avoid the inevitability
- 6:14of having fewer workers paying for a larger number of people who need more services?
- 6:19No, look, I think, you know, there's an ageing population around the world in Australia as well.
- 6:22So you do have that challenge. The question is who should be paying it? And, and let's look at,
- 6:27so the Australian tax system and my view is that we've got a tax system that sort of, I think
- 6:32slightly by mistake and certainly without, without intention of a lot of people has ended up being
- 6:37one that doesn't work well for young people. So two households on a hundred grand, living next
- 6:42to each other, one, you know, in their early 30s, one retired, on average, the retired household
- 6:49plays half the tax of the young working one. Now, this is a time when you're, you know, in your 30s,
- 6:55you know, you've got probably a big hex debt, a big sort of student debt, you know, you're trying
- 6:59to buy a house, you're probably renting, you know, you're trying to raise kids, you want to get
- 7:02them into childcare, all that stuff, you've got massive expenses and that's when you're paying
- 7:07on average, twice a tax as your retired neighbours. And then you say, as you still look at the system
- 7:13as a whole, in the last, in some of the last decade up until 2016, which was the last data we had,
- 7:18you know, the average wealth of households over the age of 65 in this country grew by around 50%.
- 7:24The average wealth of households under the age of 35, pretty much flatlined. And now, I don't think
- 7:30most Australians would say we intentionally want a tax system where if you're older, you know,
- 7:35you are getting more wealthier on average than previous generations. But that's a tax system we've
- 7:40got coupled with asset inflation over the last 20 years. Yeah, I mean, the second half of that,
- 7:44the wealth increase half of it is basically just a property boom, right? It's not only a property
- 7:48boom. It is an asset boom. And it's a reflection that if you have capital, you gain more capital,
- 7:52right? And so, and you look at this in Australia, it's a country and I think America, you know,
- 7:57it seeks to, it has the same aspiration as we do here, which is that if you are someone who,
- 8:02it doesn't matter how rich your parents are. If you know, if you give a go, if you, you know,
- 8:06work hard, if you try really hard, you should be able to create a good life for yourself.
- 8:10And I'm worried as someone, you know, who has actually had a lot of advantages in my life,
- 8:14that that is not playing out now for young Australians, unless they have family, you know,
- 8:19backing them, being able to give them deposits and things like that to buy housing, but also just
- 8:23frankly to get ahead. And I think we've got to work out how to have a system where, you know, we,
- 8:28we don't tax young workers as much so that they can build wealth and they can, you know,
- 8:32build security for themselves, you know, and ultimately hopefully buy a home, but, you know,
- 8:36that may also not play out exactly as everybody wants. Well, let's talk about that not playing
- 8:41out as everybody wants to because it seems to me that like we almost have passed the rubicon on this
- 8:46question. Like if you don't have parents who can help you out with a deposit, it's impossible
- 8:51to imagine how a personal and average income can save up. As you say, while they're paying for rent,
- 8:57while they're paying for childcare, while they're doing, while they're not at the peak,
- 9:00they're peak earning capacity yet. Someone in their 20s can save a deposit in a market like Sydney
- 9:05or Melbourne, where it costs over it, it costs seven figures to buy basically anywhere.
- 9:11Do we need to start thinking about accepting the fact that we might be like a northern European
- 9:16country where most people rent and there are better protections for renters and 10-year leases and
- 9:2320-year leases and you can't be kicked out or something? Like at what point do we go with just
- 9:28lost this battle of making housing affordable? Look, I think we, I don't, I think you've got to say,
- 9:32we've got to do both. Like I think we actually need to bring in stronger protection for renters
- 9:36and longer-term leases. And I also think that we need to make housing, you know, more affordable.
- 9:41So people, if they want that, they can have that. You know, I've been a big push and I'm glad
- 9:46the final estate government did do it in terms of things like cutting out no-fold evictions,
- 9:51but that, but the next piece, I think is exactly as you say, having longer-term leases,
- 9:56which create more protection. And you know, that is enabled by things like build to rent and other
- 10:00kind of types of, you know, types of development of property. But the other side is that on housing,
- 10:06you know, housing is something that it's, it is a right, it is something that every, you know,
- 10:11I think more, all Australian see that as, you know, shelter is your basic, is a basic need and
- 10:16we want to be a country where everyone can access that. And that includes, you know, owning that if
- 10:20needed. And so I think we need to, we can't give up on that aspiration. We need to, we need to bring
- 10:25in all the policies that we can to make that more achievable. But recognizing that, you know, this
- 10:30is a problem that's built up over 20 years, it is not going to be solved quickly.
- 10:34And even if you do, even if you throw everything at solving it, most of the experts who I talk to
- 10:39is say, the best thing you're going to be able to do is slow the rate of increase or, you know,
- 10:43best, best case keep prices steady. The idea that a $2 million property is going back to $700,000
- 10:49the way that it was 15 years ago is not happening and would cause a massive uproar in itself. Because
- 10:54a lot of people have bought in the past 15 years myself included. And I, I'm going to weigh that
- 10:59money to the bank regardless, you know, I'm going to, I mean, owe that overinflated. So when I
- 11:03hear like the Greens, for example, talk about how, you know, we want property to become much, much
- 11:07cheaper, I do feel that there's, there is an unspoken tension in the argument around equity,
- 11:13which is not fully sort of articulated in the media and in the political parties,
- 11:17which is yes, of course, young people should be able to afford a home. And at the same time,
- 11:22people who paid these, yeah, if in 1980 you paid $30,000 for a place that now costs four million,
- 11:28I'm happy with that four million dollar property going down to two million or one million or something.
- 11:32But if like me, you had to bend over backwards for decades just to be able to get into a market
- 11:38that was inflated, then how do you manage that? Like, I mean, I, is there a system where you could
- 11:46look at the equity that has grown over the course of a person's ownership of a property and
- 11:51use that as a way to, to create tax incentives or something or disincentives if they've owned it,
- 11:58if they're particularly large beneficiaries? Look, there could be, I guess where I'm approaching
- 12:05this and trying to work on this is I think what you want is incomes to be growing faster than
- 12:10housing prices, right? Because then that is the way that over time housing becomes more affordable.
- 12:16That's not going to happen really quickly, but that is kind of, that is the mix that, you know,
- 12:20you want. And so therefore, and so a lot of that comes into sort of how do we actually grow the
- 12:23economy? How do we grow productivity? But then also I keep on coming back to the tax system and
- 12:28saying, look, I think we should be trying to pull down, reduce our taxes on income, wage income,
- 12:34which is the thing that most people can access and switch that balance towards, you know,
- 12:39more, you know, into other parts of the economy, including passive income from, you know,
- 12:43property is an example. That's the, that's the slip that I think Australia can do at the moment,
- 12:49which gives the right incentives, gives people a chance, you know, like you, you know, you worked hard,
- 12:53you know, you've done everything you can, you know, gives you a chance to keep on, on building on
- 12:58that, but and some rebalances retilled set back towards younger people being able to own homes.
- 13:04Right. Okay. So that brings us to negative gearing, which is this strange system that Australia has,
- 13:10where, I mean, do you want to explain to non-Australians? Because it sounds weird when you
- 13:15explain negative gearing. So negative gearing basically is if you own an investment property,
- 13:21and it means that you can offset any losses on the investment property, including the mortgage
- 13:25costs in your investment property, against your other taxable income, including you say your wages.
- 13:32So, you know, yeah, that's basically, that's basically it. And I always thought it was logical,
- 13:36because any investment that you have, you should be able to deduct the losses in that,
- 13:41if I have a shop and, you know, then the things that I have to spend money on, like the renovation
- 13:47of the shop and my, the equipment and all that sort of stuff, I should be able to deduct off the
- 13:51revenue before that is taxable, because I don't have any choice. That's part of running the business
- 13:57until I was explained to me that that's not what negative gearing is, because you're not just
- 14:02deducting the cost of your mortgage, the interest that you're paying the bank off the revenue
- 14:08that you're getting from the property, as if it's a business. You're crossing it over to this
- 14:12completely unrelated line of work, your income, your salary, and you're deducting it off that,
- 14:18which is not legitimate in any other form of investment. If I own the shop, I don't, and the shop
- 14:23makes a loss, I don't get to cross-deduct those losses onto my completely unrelated side gig
- 14:29as an Uber delivery driver. To be fair, it's to be fair if you own shares and sort of
- 14:36give them in this way, you could do that. So it is consistent with other assets, but not to you
- 14:41having a business. But I think the point that is being made is that, you know, what's weird about
- 14:46the Australian tax system is that we sort of tax things really differently, like, you know, if you
- 14:51don't have a savings account, you know, your tax at your top marginal rate. So, you know, when you're
- 14:55in your interest, if you have a negatively geared property, you know, you can be actually reducing
- 15:00your tax. And so this is where some of the inconsistencies of our tax system are working. And part of
- 15:05the problem with both negative gearing, but also capital gains tax discounts on property, on investment
- 15:11property, means that we sort of, we have effectively, we supercharge the attractiveness
- 15:17of investing in property. In other words, there's a massive incentive if you're in the top income
- 15:21bracket to acquire as much investment property as you can because every cent that you spend on
- 15:27the interest or on anything to do with that is then going to come off your salary. And because
- 15:31the top income bracket is almost 50% in Australia, the government is basically chipping in half of
- 15:37all of the costs and pay off half of the interest on your investment property loan. It doesn't work
- 15:41that way in the States. There are some funny little things like up to $750,000 in the States. You
- 15:45can do this and that. But, you know, let's not get bogged down. In the States, the big different
- 15:49thing is that you get to do like the interest on your own home, which we don't have here. So what
- 15:55do you do about this? So what I think is a is a fair way that we need to look, I think there are
- 16:00lots of things you have to do to actually address the tax system in relation to property. One of them
- 16:04is to stop stamp duty and instead have what is called land tax. So, you know, stamp duty which is,
- 16:10you know, you pay a big tax whack whenever you buy a property. That's a tax on divorce. That's a
- 16:15tax on moving and it's not very fair. If you've owned your property for 30 years, you're not paying
- 16:19any tax. If you have to move every three years, you're paying lots of tax. So instead moving to or
- 16:23more of a land tax basis where you just pay a tax based on the property every year. And I heard
- 16:28sub-woodly mobile young people, you know, go people like myself and overcome myself young. But like
- 16:32we have a growing family and so we have to, as they grow, then our incomes grow, we then grow
- 16:37up into new places and every, as you say, three years. We have to pay $150,000 or something in
- 16:42tax at the government for the transaction. Yeah, it doesn't, and versus someone who's parents
- 16:46helped them out buying their forever home when they're 30. Yeah. That's really the, so that is a
- 16:51kind of, that's an equity piece. And just a pause on that for a second. Don't lose your
- 16:54train of thought. How do you make a land tax equitable if people are, you know, what about the
- 16:58the horror stories of grandma? She doesn't have a lot of income, but she's sitting on a place
- 17:02that is worth $10 million through no fault of her own. Now all of a sudden she's going to have this
- 17:06annual tax of $50,000. She's not going to be able to, she doesn't have the cash flow for that.
- 17:10Yeah, look, I think one of the numbers, those numbers are really big. So I'm not sure that that
- 17:14would end up with that sort of, anyone's going to be paying $50,000 worth of annual land tax. I
- 17:18think that you would get riding the street. But the other side is that there are different ways
- 17:22being put forward to say, okay, that can only, you know, you can accrue that as a debt that only,
- 17:26you know, gets paid as your property is sold or something like that. There are ways of dealing
- 17:30with people who don't have a lot of income, but do have assets that they want to hold on to.
- 17:34Well, you know, it's important to them to live nearby their friends and family where they've,
- 17:38you know, been for generations. But in to come back to the other point, so you're trying to
- 17:43work out how do you solve the sort of tax system more broadly? I think one, a fair way to do this
- 17:48and certainly a bunch of countries are doing this and we're looking at now some trying to cost up
- 17:52some options of this is like you hold your income on your, you know, working income, your wage income
- 17:56and you tax it in one way and try and lower the taxes on the wage income. And separately,
- 18:01you have your sort of asset income. So you have your passive assets income, whether it be shares,
- 18:05whether it be, you know, in property and other things and you're trying to be more consistent in
- 18:11the in the taxation of that and and lower some of the sort of tax benefit in that space. And I
- 18:16think there are lots of, there are a little good economic reasons to do that in terms of being more
- 18:20fair across different asset classes, but it would also deal with some of these issues in terms of
- 18:25the incentives around, you know, a country which, you know, as a country, which is one of the
- 18:29biggest countries on earth, you know, we have, you know, per capita, we have some of the least
- 18:34dense population on earth. And, you know, Sydney is the second most unaffordable place in the world
- 18:41to buy a property like that just doesn't make any sense at all. And we've just, we have stopped
- 18:46up at lots of different levels. And the tax system is some of it. A lot of this is about supply. So
- 18:51I'm not pretending this isn't about supply, but tax does play into it, particularly into how do we
- 18:57lower taxes on younger working people? So they have a greater chance to actually build wealth
- 19:02themselves. Remind me to come back to the question of taxic assets differently from taxing wages,
- 19:05but just while we're on the question of the density of the population, I mean, one can say that we
- 19:11are one of the most sparsely populated countries in the world. I think we're the second most sparsely
- 19:15populated country after Mongolia or something. We're certainly the most sparsely populated rich country.
- 19:20Nonetheless, if you take an average Australian, the average population density of their
- 19:26neighborhood is reasonably dense. In fact, we're very cosmopolitan and urban in comparison to
- 19:31a country like the United States. We all live in basically five or six big cities. Have we
- 19:38stuffed that up by not having medium-sized cities? Like, could we do more to just encourage,
- 19:43we always talk about regional rule in Australia, but we have this cliche in our head that means we
- 19:48have to import a bunch of Afghan nurses to go and live in, you know, it's on a farm. But actually
- 19:53creating like vibrant, making Newcastle and Wongong and like Wagar, just more vibrant places to live.
- 20:00I think there's a huge opportunity there. So it's, I think, you know, you've got to get a bunch
- 20:04of things right. But I do think there's a big opportunity to do that. I think we're going to have
- 20:08to do lots of different things. Because, you know, if you look at supply of housing in Australia,
- 20:13we've got around 400 dwellings per 1,000 people. Countries like France have around 600.
- 20:18There, you know, you can buy a shadow in France. We've all seen that on Instagram. We have all
- 20:24seen that. But you can, and the OECD averages, you know, is, well, you know, significantly above us,
- 20:32Australia is one of the worst. So we actually haven't built enough houses and we need to build
- 20:36them in diverse places. And talking actually to some regional and rural MPs, I was talking to Helen
- 20:41Haines, who's a, who has one of those regional electorates. She was saying that, you know,
- 20:46she can't get housing built either in where she lives, which is a long way out of Melbourne.
- 20:52Because there's not the things like the border and the sewage and other things connected
- 20:56in her towns where they are looking for more people to be. So there's a bunch of stuff we haven't
- 21:02got right in terms of getting the zoning right, the infrastructure right, we just haven't had our
- 21:06eye on the ball, which is, you know, we need to build housing for the population. And that's,
- 21:11that's, you know, all those policy levers that play into this as well as tax.
- 21:15And what about infrastructure and transport? Are you a high-speed rail person or no?
- 21:18I'm, I'm, I am, in principle, I would love to see high-speed rail. I just think sometimes the
- 21:26business cases are completely crazy. So I do think, I mean, I, but the business case for the TGV
- 21:31would have been crazy or the Schimpansen would have been crazy. These are government subsidised
- 21:35operations for the public good in the same way that public transport is, is economically crazy.
- 21:39Uh, no, I mean, I think that, yeah. So I think the, I am on print, like on principle,
- 21:44but I also want to see the numbers because there are like suburban rail loop in Melbourne. If we go
- 21:47bit, I don't think the numbers are there for that at the moment. And I think that's where we're
- 21:51wasting a lot of money. Right. So I think how you do it's pretty important. And you've got to,
- 21:55you know, you can't build those things in it. Doesn't make any sense. I do look at the opera
- 21:58house often and go, I'm glad we were, yeah. Yeah, I'm glad we were silly. I'm glad we were silly.
- 22:02Yeah, yeah. Because a lot of money then should, yeah. I mean, there were so, there were just so
- 22:06many externalities on something like the positive externalities on something like that. You know,
- 22:09if you could, if you could live in Canberra and, and work in Sydney because there was a 50-minute
- 22:14train or will and go on a new castle or something like that. You can live in Canberra. It's a
- 22:18pretty great city. We could just, frankly, we should just be building a lot more houses in Canberra.
- 22:22Yeah. And it's, it doesn't need to be justified in the sense of, you know, you can get to Sydney
- 22:26quickly. So I've spoken like someone who was born and raised in Sydney. I say, I say that the
- 22:31great thing about Canberra is it's quite close to Sydney. No, I love Canberra as well. But, um,
- 22:36so then in terms of building, before we go back to tax, I had Peter Tula upon this show,
- 22:41who's an academic, who is banging on all the time about like tax is a distraction. Taxes
- 22:45are rounding error. You could get rid of negative gearing tomorrow. And yes, it would help at
- 22:50the margins, but there are loads of countries that don't have negative gearing and don't have
- 22:53our tax structure. And they also have a property burn. The problem is we import lots and lots
- 22:57and lots of people into the country and we don't build a lot of houses and we don't let people build
- 23:02houses. And it takes forever to get a development application through and we're extremely
- 23:06nimbistic and jealous, jealousy guard, the look of our particular neighborhoods and so on.
- 23:12What do you make of that? So I think, on principle, he's saying that the main game is supply and I
- 23:16agree with him. So I think from a, from a housing affordability piece, the main game is supply.
- 23:21The tax piece is for me is about actually lowering income taxes so that young people are the
- 23:27rebalancing the incentives so that young people can actually get more of that supply rather than
- 23:31people who already have wealth and sort of investment properties. So what I'm trying to do is make
- 23:36it cheaper for young people to buy it and more expensive for investment properties to buy
- 23:40effectively so that more of those people can buy it because they've got, you know, keeping more
- 23:44of their own wages. That's the balance that I'm trying to strive. So yeah, so I think on principle,
- 23:49we do need to build a bunch more supply. But E61, which is a great economics
- 23:55consultancy, that's an Australian one, has, you know, is it started to say, you know,
- 24:01tax might be playing more than people realize in this space, but I still think Peter Child is right.
- 24:06State government's too leery of building. I think they have been. And I think, and I think that,
- 24:14you know, I think, as John Howard said, you know, former Prime Minister many years ago, you know,
- 24:19nobody complains when your house prices go up too much and the truth is people haven't.
- 24:24But when we're in a world where, over the last 20 years, house prices have, I think, roughly
- 24:30quadrupled and wages have basically doubled. Now people are complaining and now people worried,
- 24:36not only, you know, for themselves, they're also worried about their kids and the grandchildren.
- 24:39Yeah, I think about about bloody time, I would say, you know, the house prices has been,
- 24:43it's all been very well. They've basically doubled every decade since World War II,
- 24:47pretty reliably. And the people who've benefited from that, who are the sort of 50 plus cohort,
- 24:54are now talking about how sad it is that their children can't afford to buy properties. But,
- 24:59you know, like, I do, I just think there's a lot of BS in this. I mean, when I was on the ABC,
- 25:04and I would hear from people talking about how terrible it is that young people can't get into
- 25:08the property market, I would think in the back of my head and sometimes say, but like, you're
- 25:13clearly an older Australian and you own your own home. So you do have a vested interest in the
- 25:19status quo. Like you do like the fact that you're a millionaire through no doing of your own.
- 25:24You bought a lottery ticket in 1970 and it paid off and now you're a millionaire.
- 25:27I disagree. I think that people can go, you know, people can be say, look, I'm glad I've
- 25:32owned my own home. But, you know, a lot of people say this to me, I wish, you know, I don't want to own,
- 25:37you know, I bought this house a long time ago. I don't, I still want to live in the street that I
- 25:41want to live in. Like, you know, I'm happy where I am, but I didn't need for it to be now worth
- 25:45X million or whatever it dollars. I think you can be someone who has benefited to say, but the system
- 25:50needs to change. And I think a lot of people are saying that to say, look, I may have benefited a
- 25:54heaps of people say this to me. I might have benefited from this current system, but I recognize
- 25:59this isn't sustainable. So, I mean, would you expect them to do like, you know, right to a check?
- 26:03I mean, like, well, I expect them to support the proposals when they come along that would reduce the,
- 26:10so what would actually, the main thing that would reduce the, you know, or that would make
- 26:13housing more affordable as we've just acknowledged is more supply, which would mean that they're
- 26:18pretty street full of tree-lined terrace houses might need some taller and more modern terraces
- 26:25on it. And the moment the development application comes through, they're picking in the streets,
- 26:29and they're lobbying how they don't want the heritage of their pretty neighbourhood to be
- 26:33fundamental. I look at, you know, people, you know, people are allowed to say, well, this is why I
- 26:36really like this neighbor. People are allowed to say, I want A and B, even if they are mutually
- 26:41exclusive. I want low property. We would like to do it. So, you know, so I think, you know,
- 26:48it's, you can say, I'd like to still live in a, you know, I like the humanity that I have currently,
- 26:54but we need to build my houses. And I think, and so I think, I don't, I mean, I'm not in the business,
- 26:58and I'm trying really hard at this, is that this isn't about trying to pit old and young,
- 27:02even though I talk a lot about intergenerational. What I'm really trying to say is, I want young
- 27:06people to have the same chance for prosperity that previous generations did. I think that is,
- 27:11that's right from a fairness point of view, that is right from a social cohesion point of view,
- 27:14that is, you know, it's right for our country. Now, that is going to mean some tricky trade-offs
- 27:18because we haven't made a bunch of hard decisions over time. We're just going to have to keep on
- 27:21Yeah, I mean, I wonder if we're sort of chasing a rainbow in thinking that housing needs to be
- 27:26pivotal to that. Like, I understand that this generation is the first generation that is coming
- 27:31to grips with the loss of the Australian and to some extent, American dream of homeownership,
- 27:37the idea that if you were just a regular working person that someday you would have the white
- 27:43picket fence is just not true anymore and probably and may never be true again. So, do we need to
- 27:49find other ways of facilitating the flourishing of a younger generation without this fixation
- 27:54on they have to buy the house? Yeah, I think you do. I mean, as I keep on coming back to tax,
- 27:59that's why I do think you have to keep going. Okay, let's talk about taxes. No, no, no, no,
- 28:01I think the reason why that's, again, I guess, probably why I talk about taxes because it's not just
- 28:06about taxes, not primarily about housing, it's about how to help younger people. Yeah, and you can do
- 28:11whatever you want with the money, you can buy an expensive house or yeah. Buy a house, you can buy
- 28:15another thing. We are going to have to have people, people need to live somewhere and that's
- 28:19got to be affordable and that means we're going to have to build stuff, whether they're buying it or
- 28:22whether, you know, a big company who owns a lot of houses that they want to rent and, you know,
- 28:27that's the choice they make instead. We still need to build the houses, depending on, you know,
- 28:31it doesn't matter who's going to own them, we still actually just need to build houses.
- 28:34I mean, yeah, when we say build houses, it sounds simple because you think, well, just
- 28:40clear off a new empty bit of farmland and build lots of houses there, the problem is people
- 28:45don't actually want to live an hour away from the city where they want, they want to keep living
- 28:50in the places that are becoming that are increasingly expensive and the reason they're increasing
- 28:54the expensive is because a lot of people want to live there. And so is there, we've sort of
- 29:00gotten caught in this false binary in terms of development, I think, between do we turn our cities
- 29:05into skyscraper cities with lots of cheaper apartments that we push up in places like mascot in
- 29:10Sydney or Alexandria or wherever it might be, these inner ring suburbs which are previously
- 29:15industrial throwing a lot of cheap skyscrapers and put people in there or do we contribute to urban
- 29:20sprawl on the outskirts by with big double garage homes and sort of golf courses and, you know,
- 29:26parks and things like that in an increasingly hot dry continent or is there a middle ground which
- 29:34I rather like the idea of which is sort of medium density, you know, the way that most people in
- 29:39Paris or London live or in the inner west of Sydney or something like that, like can you recreate
- 29:43that in a way so that it's neither suburban sprawl nor high rise? I think you're going to
- 29:51without pissing everybody off. Well, I think you're going to have to do all of it, right? Like if we
- 29:56really want to be a place over time where housing becomes really affordable, I think that means,
- 30:02you know, medium density in, do more medium density. I lived in London, I actually lived in
- 30:07France and Paris as well, like me and, you know, I live part of my patch is Pots Point in Sydney which
- 30:14is some of the most density populated part of the country and people who live there absolutely
- 30:19love it. It works really, really well, right? So that's really beautiful medium density.
- 30:24You are going to, you know, the bunch of people are very happy in, you know, high rises in
- 30:27Zetland and those in mascot and places too. And then, as you said before, regional communities
- 30:34also, you know, can do it. You've got to, I think you, people want to live differently. You've
- 30:38got to, you have to have a, I think, a variety of, of housing, but it is, it's, it's everything.
- 30:42It's not just urban sprawl. And I think traditionally in Australia, our answer has been,
- 30:47just keep on pushing out. And I think the answer has to be much more mix and much more deliberate.
- 30:53I mean, you would be shocked to know that we don't really have a sort of 10 year national infrastructure
- 30:59plan where, you know, we go, oh, this is where the housing we think is going to be. And this is
- 31:03where the transport, therefore, should be. And this is, you know, and that's the kind of thing
- 31:07that going, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's not crazy. Just try and have a bit of a strategy around
- 31:11this. I like to you say that I'm sure I would be shocked by this news. I am shockingly, I'm not
- 31:17shocked that there is no plan. I mean, I'm shocked that there's no collaboration allegory between
- 31:24the federal government's immigration policy and the state government's infrastructure policies.
- 31:28Honestly, I mean, I don't understand why it isn't because talking about Trump and immigrant
- 31:33sentiment and all this, it is obvious to me when you look at what's going on in the right in
- 31:38the UK and the rise of the far right in Europe that you have to be extremely careful in this climate
- 31:43about making sure that people can't blame migrants for failings of public transportation,
- 31:50of hospital waiting lists of, you know, how long it takes to see a doctor of school overcrowding,
- 31:55whatever, like you have to ensure that infrastructure can keep up with immigration. Otherwise,
- 32:00the migrants are going to get blamed and you're going to get ugliness. So it just strikes me as
- 32:05obvious that you should have the federal immigration minister and the state, like infrastructure
- 32:11ministers sitting down together and going, okay, for every thousand new people who come into the
- 32:15country, where are they going to go and what hospital beds, where are their hospital beds and
- 32:20where are the new classrooms? Like, without that, you're just asking for
- 32:25tribal. I mean, I mean, yeah, I think this is the sermon. This is a no. Well, look, this is
- 32:31the great federation that we have. These are the challenges. And I think, you know, I'm the
- 32:35child of a migrant, you know, Australia has is incredibly successful. Both as a migrant country,
- 32:42but also because of its, I think migration, I think it's made us the country that we are. But
- 32:46we've got to, you know, we do have to manage this in a way which doesn't try and pit different
- 32:50people and parts of the country against it. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm a child of migrants. I'm a
- 32:53child of a refugee. And I certainly wouldn't want to see that, you know, what we're seeing overseas
- 32:57happen here. I'm a big fan of high migration. But, yeah, make sure you're figuring out, yeah,
- 33:04you're figuring out how you're doing it. So in terms of offering inducements for younger people
- 33:08to be productive and to have to keep more of their money and distance incentives for wealthier
- 33:14people to sit back and get rich off the profits of their, their assets, is there a standard way
- 33:20of taxing assets revenue from assets at the moment in Australia and is it higher or lower than
- 33:24if that income was coming from wages? So what it's, so what it is is, no, there isn't a standard way
- 33:31of taxing assets at the moment. It depends on the type of asset and earning as I said, you know,
- 33:35there's a, you know, if you save your money through your, you know, through interest, you know,
- 33:41you keep your money in the bank and just have interest, your tax at your marginal rate,
- 33:45which is, you know, can go up to 47%. If you are negatively gear your own, you know,
- 33:51you can actually be reducing your tax by having this asset appreciating over time. And so it is
- 33:56inconsistent. That's one of the, wait, I'm not supposed to, I don't quite understand the analogy
- 34:00there. If I've got a thousand dollars in a bank account and that owns interest, then of course,
- 34:05that interest is taxable. If I am negatively gearing an investment property, then that is a,
- 34:10that is money that I'm putting into that investment property. Are you saying that the capital
- 34:14growth of the, of the, if it goes up by a thousand, your capital growth will go up and then,
- 34:20but I will pay tax on the capital growth when I eventually sell property. And you pay half the
- 34:23rate that you will, because capital gains taxes are currently discounted at 50%. So you'll pay half the,
- 34:29if you hold the asset, the more than a year, which most people do when it comes to property.
- 34:33Yes, right. So that's some of the problem there. Okay. So get rid of the capital gains tax benefit.
- 34:38Or reduce, I think, you know, the most argument, there's a reason you have a capital gains test
- 34:43discount, but on, on things like those investments, but I think there's a strong argument for reducing
- 34:49some of those capital gains tax discounts. And the reason for the discount is so that the tax is
- 34:54higher on short term trades. Is that right? If you're flipping things in less than 12 months,
- 34:59they want there to be some penalty for that. The idea, I mean, this is, we're being a big
- 35:02technical, but the reason why you have, historically, have had a capital gains tax discount,
- 35:07compared to your normal tax of income, is because if you hold an asset for say five years,
- 35:11and it goes up from $100 to $200, some of the gain of that $100 is due to inflation. Because
- 35:17let's say, you know, so you held this asset over five years. And so the idea of a capital gains tax
- 35:22discount is to account for inflation. But if you hold an asset for one year and one day, you know,
- 35:29the inflation is not 50%. Right. But that's, and so that's one of the challenges, that's one of the
- 35:34reasons why we've had historically capital gains tax discount. But there've been different ways
- 35:38to do it. And I think there's some of the problems of what we've got right now is because of this.
- 35:43Okay. So if I, if I'm sitting on a balanced like superannuation portfolio, I'm a,
- 35:49I'm a chubby fat pig at the trough. I'm a boomer. I'm a boomer. Who is just, these are my words,
- 35:57not yours. Let me do it. I've got my eight properties. I've got my, I've got my few million
- 36:02bucks worth of shares. And that revenue is, is coming in. I'm getting rental revenue,
- 36:08we get rental income and I'm getting dividends from the shares and so on. Each one of those
- 36:13components is likely being taxed at a different rate. And all of those rates are likely lower than if
- 36:19I was working for that money. If you're, if you're getting capital gains tax discount, yep,
- 36:24that would be. And, and I think, well, no, hang on, I'm not sure about capital gains tax. I'm
- 36:27talking about dividends and rental income, right? So if you're discounting it against, you,
- 36:33so the income won't necessarily, it depends if you're discounting it against your, your,
- 36:37your interest income and your discounted against your wages. I think the point is, so we're probably
- 36:41illustrator that the Australian system is very complicated. I think what's interesting actually,
- 36:46some, there was some really interesting research for that. Basically, you said, you know, what you
- 36:49want in a tax system is that people earning the same amount of money roughly pay about the same
- 36:54amount of tax. Well, what happens now in Australia is actually that holds true for quite a long time
- 36:59until you get to really the sort of top bands where there can be a 20 percentage point difference
- 37:06on like is sort of from the 10th percent out to the 90th percent out on the amount of tax you pay.
- 37:11So you and I are standing next to each other on the same income, you know, you're paying 20%
- 37:16tax on your income. I'm playing 40% on my average income. And that is because of all these
- 37:20complicated things in our tax system. And I think that's where it was saying, we've got to actually
- 37:25try and harmonize this so that the incentives really are there for young people to invest in
- 37:30themselves to work hard and do, you know, take the next job, do all those things that we as a
- 37:36country have said over time, this is really good for our economy. And we don't have that now.
- 37:41What we currently have is a system that says, hey, be a property developer or get into finance.
- 37:45Because if you want to make big money, those are probably your best options.
- 37:48I mean, taxes are also a way of discouraging behavior that you don't want to see more of, right?
- 37:53We tax cigarettes and we tax alcohol for that reason, which makes it crazy that we tax,
- 37:58for example, employment through payroll taxes. Would you get rid of payroll taxes?
- 38:04It look, I'd love to get rid of payroll tax, not least because so payroll tax is a tax on
- 38:10employment, which is varies across the country. It's complicated because different businesses
- 38:15pay different rates and even the definition of employment is differs between states,
- 38:20which is just a pain. But also because I think we are entering an age of AI,
- 38:25where I think we shouldn't be taxing people more who employ people. I actually don't want to have
- 38:30a greater tax burden on companies that are employing people as opposed to investing in capital.
- 38:37Yeah, right. I think that'll be a bad idea. But to do all these things, you have to change,
- 38:42that you need to actually really significant tax reform, which comes back to the start of this
- 38:45conversation. This is why I'm trying to put tax reform on the agenda because we do have these
- 38:50intersecting issues coming on right now. We have an ageing population. We have a young people
- 38:55who are struggling to get ahead. We actually are not investing enough in our businesses
- 38:59and our climate transition is going to cost us more than it should. All these things mean that we
- 39:03actually need to try and get the tax system to work better. One of the things that enrages the
- 39:07left is the way that big multinational corporations will be able to play jurisdictions off each other
- 39:12in order to hide their profits and so on. You buy something from Apple and it just happens
- 39:16to be processed through Ireland because I've got low-tech tax rates or whatever. There's this game
- 39:22of whack-a-mole trying to locate where the money actually is. Let's suppose in an ideal world,
- 39:28we get rid of payroll taxes. We get rid of the taxes that are discouraging the things that we
- 39:31want, like employing people and young people's labor, for example. We increase taxes on things that
- 39:39we don't really care about. Very wealthy people being able to keep lots of money from their assets.
- 39:46I can say you're rolling your eyes, but my words, my words, my words, then we have a revenue gap
- 39:53to fill, because we don't want to be. What about taxes on total revenue of multinational
- 40:01or something like that? What about these ideas that get floated around so that they can't play
- 40:04games with what their profits technically are? I think people hope that there's lots of money in
- 40:12here. I think the truth is that the evidence suggests that there's not lots of money waiting out
- 40:16there if we could just tax big tech better. I've genuinely lost a lot of money. Yeah, no,
- 40:22they've got a lot of money. Just don't think their billions are out there that people are hoping
- 40:28would fill all the gaps there. Why do you not think that? Because I think that's the people
- 40:35the sort of economists that I was spoken to and the experts I was spoken to. I think there is some,
- 40:39like to be honest, Australia is, and many of the OECD are part of work to try and overall fix
- 40:45the world sort of tax systems, and it's more consistent. I think work has been done and a bunch of
- 40:50loopholes are already closed. I just don't, while there are people doing this, it's not this kind of
- 40:55big, you know, big golden pot of money that if you get it or understand that, but I always find
- 41:00that I always hear people who say that and that that lands for me as sort of what about he kind of like
- 41:08allowing the perfect to be the enemy of the good kind of thing of like they're like,
- 41:11ah, these socialists just want to think that if we milk the rich,
- 41:14then it's going to be raining money. No, but it might do something. I mean, it might help if like
- 41:19Apple and Microsoft paid something. No, I think to be honest, this is where the government in
- 41:24Australia has been trying to do over the last three years, like they've passed a bunch of sort of
- 41:28multinational tax avoidance kind of bills exactly on this kind of piece. So I think you kind of
- 41:34have to separate the different types of businesses, and this is where I do believe we should be
- 41:39taxing what they call sort of like I believe we should be taxing our resources more,
- 41:43particularly when prices are high. That is an example where I think it does make sense,
- 41:48and because I think, you know, I think that's that's an area where I think we have great
- 41:52opportunity than some of the other areas. And partly because I've just looked at the numbers,
- 41:56and I think that's probably an area that we have great opportunity in this area. Yeah, right,
- 41:59right. Yeah. How do you experience the politics of all this? Because when we talk about simplification
- 42:04at the tax code, one of the things that we're implying is that there aren't lots of vested
- 42:09interests in the complexity, right? Like every time you remove a piece of complexity,
- 42:13someone goes, Hey, that was benefit. That was my complexity. All the other complexity is bad,
- 42:18but this one is noble. How much confidence do you have that you can sell a grand bargain?
- 42:26Look, I think it won't be easy. But I think it's, but I think it's about having the conversation
- 42:31over time. I mean, I think genuinely, you know, you've got to take the conversation to people,
- 42:37and you've got to make the argument. I went to actually an independence of retirement,
- 42:42living a place really lovely place on the other day. And one of the opening gametes was from a
- 42:50woman who said, Look, you know, I'm really worried about all this talk on intergenerational equity.
- 42:54You know, I feel like that means you're coming for, you know, people are coming for my money,
- 42:58and I look at my grandkids and others, and I just feel that they're not working hard enough. And,
- 43:02you know, why should that? And I had 18% interest rates when I was a kid, a young person. And the truth
- 43:07is that's, that's, that is what some people worried about. And, you know, this is about, for me,
- 43:12this is about trying to not pitch generations against each other, or, you know, to say, you know,
- 43:18to create a baddie that we can all go after. But it's just to say, Okay, what sort of country do we
- 43:23want? Right? I want a country where young people can achieve the same outcomes. I think let's
- 43:28look at the evidence. It's not happening. So now we have some choices. Now they're not easy choices.
- 43:33Frankly, if we had made some of these choices 20 years ago, it would all be better off, but we haven't.
- 43:37So now we've got to make those choices as a country now, which is, you know, some of which are not
- 43:43going to benefit us individually or perfectly, but that's where we've got to go. And so I think you've
- 43:47got to, you know, I don't think everyone is, you know, we've tried in the past to make it sure
- 43:52everyone's a winner. No one can be worse off. It's impossible. There are people and companies and
- 43:57others that will be worse off. And it's, I think, a matter of saying, Okay, try and have an evidence
- 44:02base, back base conversation and listen to that, you know, listen to, listen and understand
- 44:08and try and acknowledge them and then work out transitions because a lot of this, you know,
- 44:12there are legitimate concerns. People have made choices over time, but we also, we cannot continue
- 44:18on this trajectory. Something's got to change. And that's kind of how I approach it. Yeah, I think
- 44:22the transition question is an interesting one. And we probably don't give enough attention to it,
- 44:26because most of the naysayers of reform will say, but what about this example of this particular
- 44:31person who, you know, has been working hard for the last 10 years, now you're going to pull the
- 44:35rug out from under them and all of a sudden, everything's going to change. I mean, it strikes me
- 44:38that the simplest way to sell something like an end to negative gearing would just be to say,
- 44:42everyone's going to be grandfathered in. If you're negatively gearing a place, that's fine. Or
- 44:47like, so let's say for 10 years, you've got another decade to make. If you're already negatively,
- 44:50if you've already launched your tax returns and you were negatively gearing last year,
- 44:54then you've got another 10 years to negatively gear, I think. Whatever, I think that transition,
- 44:59whatever transition, whether it's yours or others, I think there is that question of transitions
- 45:03is one. And you've got to be saying, where do we want to have the tax system in 10 years,
- 45:07rather than necessarily, am I going to get there all in one hop in one year?
- 45:10Yeah. And how much buy it? How can I maximize the amount of buy it?
- 45:14Yeah, sure. And that's again, you know, I come back to again, where we started, which is to say,
- 45:18that's why I think you have to be revenue neutral, because I think if you're saying, actually,
- 45:21what we're going to do is increase taxes across the board, there's 50% of the country who already
- 45:25says, government's not spending my money right. I don't want to give you any more of it.
- 45:29So even if they, in principle, wouldn't be, you know, they don't mind you changing the mix,
- 45:33but they do not want you to overall raise taxes. You know, the, you know, looking at politically,
- 45:38how you can get it through, you know, the coalition has said, yeah, that'd be open to doing something
- 45:42that was revenue neutral. So I think this is, you know, this is what I'm urging the government.
- 45:46This is really how I'm framing it. It's like, do it so that the total tax take is not increasing,
- 45:52but we're doing this in a way that's better for young people, better for productivity and investment,
- 45:57and makes this climate transition cheaper. Is negative gearing expensive? How much does the
- 46:01government spend on it, you know, roughly off the different models? So it's not, it's sort of not
- 46:06as expensive as indexing the tax, the brackets, which is what I would really like to do,
- 46:11in which a bunch of countries and just explain that. That's the idea that this is actually really
- 46:16the heart of, I think, how do we be fairer to younger generations, which is currently, we've got
- 46:21a tax system where the, you know, your, the brackets at which you pay different levels of tax,
- 46:29so, you know, you pay, you know, certain amount of tax at 15%, 30, you know, certain amount of tax.
- 46:35Yeah, you pay nothing up to so many thousands of dollars a year. Yeah, point of this is that
- 46:40that doesn't change with inflation. And so what happens is that if you've got, so every year,
- 46:47if you just basically, if you get a $5,000 increase in your pay, let's say you're on a hundred
- 46:51grand, you get a $5,000 increase in your pay, and inflation at this time is 5%. You would think,
- 46:57oh, yeah, I'm holding steady. Actually, you're not because you've actually increased your overall
- 47:02average tax. Yeah, because of bracket creep as they call it. Because your average tax level is
- 47:06higher. And one of the most shocking things is that in the recent, you know, last few years,
- 47:12a really high inflation and also higher interest rates, the reserve bank of Australia has shown that
- 47:20that bracket creep was more expensive, had a harder impact on people's household budgets,
- 47:25than actually interest rate increases. So on average, because it's, you know, because bracket
- 47:30creep affected, everyone, not everyone has those interest rate increases. But overall, it was a
- 47:34really big cost. Now, but if you had a mortgage, probably not, but it depends on how big your
- 47:39mortgage is and everything, it had a really big impact. And some countries, including the US,
- 47:43though sometimes they suspend it, they index their tax brackets. So this doesn't happen.
- 47:47Meaning that every year, they look at what the inflation was and the brackets go up
- 47:52proportionally. Australian governments don't like to do that because if you have bracket creep,
- 47:56then every five or 10 years, you get to give a tax cut and increase the, you go to go,
- 48:00hey, look at us, we're going to increase the, yeah, come back into budget surplus over 10 years
- 48:04and go, woohoo, that's because of good economic management. No, it's just because you're taxing
- 48:08people more, but you're not actually telling them. Right. Okay. So peg the thresholds to inflation,
- 48:16get rid of negative gearing somehow, use the difference in, use the saved money to cut taxes for
- 48:22working people and maybe to get rid of payroll tax. All right. I'm on board. Where do I,
- 48:28where do I sign? How are you still doing other numbers on it all? How much are political parties
- 48:35to blame here? Because a lot of people in who I speak to in their 20s and 30s are disillusioned with
- 48:41what they think of as a sort of a rigged two party system where big corporations pay lots of
- 48:45money on lobbyists and fund political campaigns and everything's dirty. And it's very hard to,
- 48:50you know, why isn't the government being more responsive on gas and climate and whatever
- 48:55their issue is? And their diagnosis of the problem is that we should get rid of political parties
- 49:01and everybody should be an independent as an independent. Do you concur? Or I think, I think that
- 49:09on lots of things, political parties have, have lost touch with what people think and are worried
- 49:16about and have not made some of the difficult and important long term decisions that they should
- 49:21have over the last 20 years. And let's talk housing because frankly, this has been a slow motion
- 49:25car crash for the last 20 years and no, and political parties of both persuasions haven't done anything
- 49:30about it. And I think now some of that is definitely vested interests, some of that. And you know,
- 49:37you can see that in something like gambling advertising where Australians are some of the biggest
- 49:41loses per capita in gambling. And it is the sports organisations, it's the media organisations
- 49:48that are like, no, no, no, no, no, no, you can't touch that. Don't touch our advertising.
- 49:52While most Australians are like, oh, stop advertising all these gambling, all these gambling
- 49:56advertising on sports because, you know, I just want to watch my sport. I don't want to be constantly
- 50:00told I should gamble on my sport. So I think there's a bunch of areas where political parties
- 50:06have let us down. I think on some of the difficult on these difficult issues. And I think that's
- 50:10why you get independence. That's why I think you get minor parties. That's where people are,
- 50:14it's saying, you know what, it's not it's not good enough. And how do you feel about the
- 50:19the fate of liberalism at the moment as you see what's going on in the United States? Yeah.
- 50:26You know, I would call myself a small liberal, like that's how I see the world. And you know,
- 50:30I think I do worry. And I think this is where, you know, I think, you know, what do we do? How do we
- 50:38how do we address, you know, what are the challenges? One, I think he's economic. And I do believe
- 50:43that, you know, you need to have a growing and fair economy, which most people feel bored into
- 50:50for to preserve liberalism. And you see that in, you see that in sort of tough economic times,
- 50:55you always get the rise of the far right. You know, this is, it's what happens when people feel
- 51:00like their future, their kids future, you know, they look ahead and they're not, don't feel,
- 51:04you know, content and excited about it or they're worried about it. So I think there's a big part
- 51:08which is just get good economic policy policy. That's good for business policy. That's good for,
- 51:12you know, factually prosperity. And then the other side is, is more the kind of, you know,
- 51:19community coherence, like working out, you know, what are we proud of in this country? And how do we
- 51:23hold that together? And how do we disagree well? Which is one of the reasons why I like doing this,
- 51:28you know, I'm proud of what you do. And I think, and I think we need to have difficult conversations,
- 51:33but we need to do it in a respectful way and find ways to disagree well and also how to build
- 51:39social capital and connection, you know, so that you can disagree on some things and still have
- 51:45a relationship because we've got to do that more in a pluralist country like Australia.
- 51:50Well, thanks for saying that. You mentioned climate change a couple of times. Is it at odds with
- 51:54the idea of a vibrant and dynamic economy? I mean, I sometimes think that we dodged this question
- 51:58by saying like, we can have our cake and eat it too. And like, there's loads of opportunities
- 52:02in green jobs. But the reality is that we live in a country that is heavily reliant on mining and
- 52:06makes a ton of money from coal. And is there a, like, how do you balance that conflict?
- 52:12It's going to be hard. I think the truth is that again, I wish we'd started this
- 52:16properly 20 years ago, but we didn't. So it is going to cost more and be more disruptive
- 52:21this transition than it should have been. But, you know, so I don't, I don't think it's going to be
- 52:26easy to do this, but I also think it's there are ways that we can do it better. And, you know,
- 52:32I look at Princeton, rural and regional communities. Again, you know, one, again, another MPI
- 52:36I was speaking to who said, you know, we've got all these massive wind projects right next to us
- 52:40and actually in my electorate. And we have some of the most unreliable electricity in the country.
- 52:45Like, you know, surely you can work out how to make sure that, you know, some of those communities
- 52:50can share some of the benefits as well as do something which is a benefit to the whole country,
- 52:55which is host significant renewable energy. So, you know, I don't think this, I think this transition
- 53:01will be difficult, but I also think it is inevitable. And so we can't just hold on to
- 53:05coal and gas. We actually need to, so where can we do, where is our economic future here? Now,
- 53:11one area on sort of the climate side is definitely green. If we can get ourselves sorted and
- 53:17organising that, that is an area where Australia has an opportunity for significant export earnings.
- 53:22You know, other areas are in sort of in tech and innovation. And, you know, a lot of what goes
- 53:26on around here, you know, for instance, AI data sensors in the area that Australia is really,
- 53:31I think, a outstanding in or has a significant opportunity in Australian quantum computing.
- 53:36We have more quantum computing experts here in Sydney than apparently any other city in the world.
- 53:42It's hard to believe, but they're all here. So, you know, how do we build on some of those strengths
- 53:47as well as saying, you know, it's going to be, it's going to be a hard transition, but we can't
- 53:50just keep on putting it off. No, I mean, it seems like it seems like we're sort of grasping at
- 53:55whatever shiny new climate object is in front of us, where the obvious solution which every
- 54:01economist would tell you is just to put a price on carbon. I mean, should, because more than a decade
- 54:05ago, Australia became the first country in the world to introduce a carbon tax and then that
- 54:09government got voted out of power and it was reversed. Should that have just stayed? Should we just
- 54:12have kept the carbon tax? Should we have a price on carbon now? Yes, we should. You know, I support,
- 54:16oh, I think I have always had an extra part of price on carbon. And what we are in in sort of
- 54:20economic terms, we're in second, third best world, where it is costing us more than we should.
- 54:25And so, at the very least, you know, one thing I'm trying to work on is how do we actually get
- 54:30more transparency around all the different implicit prices we have on carbon, so that we can
- 54:35actually try and make sure that we prioritize the things that are cheapest to do rather than
- 54:38the most expensive. Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the 21st century?
- 54:42I'm in balance. I'm optimistic. I guess I'm an optimist by nature, but I also think it's up
- 54:52to us. And again, taking very parochial kind of Australian first thing here. It's like, you know,
- 54:57we are a country, we're a small country with enormous resources. We are one of the most diverse
- 55:02countries on earth. 50% of the country was either born overseas or has a parent born overseas.
- 55:07I think we have in this country the best chance out of any country in the world to show that it's
- 55:12possible to be prosperous and diverse and to thrive in a clean energy kind of world.
- 55:17And frankly, we've got so much going for us in this sort of clean energy world, so it's really
- 55:21up to us to sort our stuff out. And that's, again, one of the reasons why I got to politics.
- 55:25All right. Don't fuck it up Australia. That's the bumper sticker.
- 55:28I like to spend it. Thank you. Thanks so much.