Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 26 - Featuring Stanford Steve

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The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 26 - Featuring Stanford Steve · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:02
Speaker 1: Coming to you from fabulous Las Vegas. The right side
0:07
Speaker 1: is the winning side. The late move is the correct move.
0:10
Speaker 1: Sports betting capital of the world. We all know when
0:14
Speaker 1: a sharp like me weighs in the lines move, it's
0:17
Speaker 1: a party for your ears. This is the buffet with
0:26
Speaker 1: Chad and Scooch. I want to buy that guy at buffet.
0:31
Speaker 1: Here we go. Hello, Welcome to the buffet with Chad
0:35
Speaker 1: and Scooch. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network
0:39
Speaker 1: on the phone with me from the Orleans representing all
0:43
Speaker 1: the BOYD Gaming books in the state of Nevada, Mr
0:47
Speaker 1: Bookmaker himself Scooch, Bob Scoochy. How you doing, buddy? I'm good?
0:51
Speaker 1: How are you? I am good. Listen, it's Monday afternoon
0:54
Speaker 1: here in the East Coast. Uh, it's Monday morning where
0:58
Speaker 1: you are in Las Vegas. We have a massive show
1:00
Speaker 1: today because we have to recap what happened in the
1:02
Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen, in the Elite eight, which was full of
1:05
Speaker 1: like four or five pretty bad beats um in a
1:08
Speaker 1: variety of ways. We have to preview the final four,
1:12
Speaker 1: including the miracle that is Loyola of Chicago. UM. And
1:17
Speaker 1: we have to do a little, little, tiny bit on
1:20
Speaker 1: MLB season win totals, just just a little tiny bit
1:24
Speaker 1: um and later on in the show, Uh, we're gonna
1:27
Speaker 1: have some special guests. At this point, we know we
1:31
Speaker 1: have Stanford Steve Coughlin from ESPN and s v P Felika,
1:36
Speaker 1: Chris Felika, Christ the Bear Felika. He has not decided
1:38
Speaker 1: if he's going to join us yet or not, so
1:40
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a mystery. We're not gonna know until
1:42
Speaker 1: we record tomorrow afternoon. Scooch Scooch jab scooge. So what
1:50
Speaker 1: do I want to start first? Do I want to
1:52
Speaker 1: start with the fact that I had Loyola in the
1:54
Speaker 1: second half plus two and a half and if Nevada
1:58
Speaker 1: Renou was in the penalty I probably would have won that.
2:02
Speaker 1: Or do we want to start with all of the
2:05
Speaker 1: people who had um uh Michigan minus four and a
2:14
Speaker 1: half against Florida State and those people who didn't get
2:19
Speaker 1: a chance of the free throws because they didn't file
2:21
Speaker 1: with ten seconds left. Or do we want to talk
2:23
Speaker 1: about Duke Kentucky being ten points under the total with
2:30
Speaker 1: fifty five seconds left, only to end up going to
2:33
Speaker 1: overtime and going way over the total. Like, there are
2:36
Speaker 1: so many bad beats to talk about from this weekend.
2:39
Speaker 1: I don't know where to begin. I know they depending
2:42
Speaker 1: on what side you were on in a lot of
2:44
Speaker 1: those games, you were even either uh, you know, euphoric
2:48
Speaker 1: or you were throwing stuff at your TV set, one
2:50
Speaker 1: of the two, because they could have went either way
2:53
Speaker 1: in some crazy last minute or last second decisions both
2:57
Speaker 1: by you know, coaches and players just really affected in
3:01
Speaker 1: certain situations, didn't affect the outcome of the game, but
3:04
Speaker 1: certainly affected the outcome of your betting ticket. And uh,
3:09
Speaker 1: you mentioned all the games, and actually there was another
3:12
Speaker 1: game to Kansas and and Clemson where it seemed like
3:16
Speaker 1: there was plenty of time to foul Kansas with when
3:19
Speaker 1: Kansas was up by four. And there was another game
3:22
Speaker 1: where they were laying four and a half or five
3:24
Speaker 1: depending on what you had, Matt, and uh, they just
3:28
Speaker 1: couldn't get to the guy and he was able to
3:29
Speaker 1: just run out the last six seconds of the game
3:31
Speaker 1: and before they were able to foul. So a lot
3:35
Speaker 1: of games that just came down to the last second.
3:37
Speaker 1: And you know, in the sports book, you can just
3:38
Speaker 1: hear the us and the odds, you know, they go
3:40
Speaker 1: from from cheering loudly to then suddenly everything just got
3:45
Speaker 1: just completely quiet. It's uh so, you really know what
3:48
Speaker 1: side the the audience needs. What side did people need
3:52
Speaker 1: this weekend? Like in the second half of the Loyola game, uh,
3:56
Speaker 1: which I was on Loyola plus two and a half,
3:58
Speaker 1: um where it was most of the book this weekend,
4:02
Speaker 1: um so the book we needed all the underdogs. Um
4:07
Speaker 1: with the exception of the Syracuse Duke game where they
4:11
Speaker 1: took the plus eleven points in that one, so that
4:13
Speaker 1: that that wasn't good, But we needed all the underdogs.
4:16
Speaker 1: Uh so, particularly in that in that Michigan game against
4:20
Speaker 1: Florida State, that was the big one that we really
4:23
Speaker 1: needed Florida State. Uh so. Uh obviously I thought we
4:28
Speaker 1: had that one lost. Uh Florida State pulled within three
4:32
Speaker 1: and four, and then all of a sudden, Michigan goes
4:34
Speaker 1: up by ten. I I pretty much thought it was
4:37
Speaker 1: over then, but Florida State makes a little a little
4:39
Speaker 1: bit of a comeback and uh and boy when they
4:44
Speaker 1: didn't foul him, I'll tell you I was pretty happy
4:46
Speaker 1: because four wasn't the best number. We were at three
4:49
Speaker 1: and a half, we were at four and a half
4:51
Speaker 1: so it wasn't It wasn't the best number of the outcome,
4:55
Speaker 1: but it was certainly better than Michigan by five for us.
4:59
Speaker 1: So uh uh that that that worked out for the books.
5:02
Speaker 1: And like I said, most of the the betters in
5:05
Speaker 1: the in the sports book, we're not happy with that outcome. Yeah,
5:09
Speaker 1: that was. When you're in the sports book, is it
5:13
Speaker 1: easier to tell the side that is happy or the
5:18
Speaker 1: side that is sad? So it's definitely, Uh, well that's
5:24
Speaker 1: a good one. Uh. The sad crowd is silent, so
5:29
Speaker 1: it's easier to tell the happier side that the happy side.
5:33
Speaker 1: They're cheering, they're yelling. Um. Like I said, if I'm
5:36
Speaker 1: getting sidetracked in my office and I'm not paying attention
5:39
Speaker 1: to the game, when I hear that eruption of cheers,
5:43
Speaker 1: I know that, you know, the favorite just hit a
5:45
Speaker 1: three pointer. I could tell. I could tell the crowd
5:48
Speaker 1: noise from the three point shot. Uh. You know, it's
5:51
Speaker 1: just very sudden that goes in and then I hear it.
5:53
Speaker 1: And and it's funny because sometimes I'll watch a feed
5:58
Speaker 1: in my office that's not an h D feat. Now,
6:01
Speaker 1: the h D feeds sometimes around like a three four
6:04
Speaker 1: six second delay delay sometimes even longer. So a lot
6:07
Speaker 1: of times I'll see the shot go in and I'll
6:09
Speaker 1: be like, oh no, and then five six seconds later,
6:12
Speaker 1: I'll hear everyone's cheering and yelling. So it's it's kind
6:15
Speaker 1: of funny. And you needed you needed, you needed Kansas
6:19
Speaker 1: to win this weekend as well, at least to cover
6:22
Speaker 1: against Duke. Um that was a little bit of a
6:26
Speaker 1: miracle for you to like that could have gone anyway
6:28
Speaker 1: in the last ninety seconds. Yeah, well, you know that one.
6:31
Speaker 1: We we got a lot of money on both sides
6:33
Speaker 1: on that one, and and being that it was the
6:35
Speaker 1: last game of the weekend, it kind of tied up
6:38
Speaker 1: a lot of people's parlays. We were only going to
6:40
Speaker 1: do slightly better on Kansas than than Duke, even though
6:43
Speaker 1: Kansas was was the underdog there. Uh, it wasn't as
6:47
Speaker 1: a game we really the Villanova game was really, you know,
6:50
Speaker 1: much much bigger for us to uh in terms of
6:54
Speaker 1: you know, hoping for an underdog there. So uh, once
6:57
Speaker 1: Villanova covered, it was kind like every parlay was going
7:01
Speaker 1: to either side of the to Kansas game. But uh,
7:06
Speaker 1: I mean it kind of went the way the betters
7:08
Speaker 1: were anticipating, meaning they couldn't make up their mind in
7:12
Speaker 1: this one, and it kind of panned out that way
7:14
Speaker 1: going into overtime, and you know, it was really it
7:17
Speaker 1: could have went either way throughout that whole second half.
7:20
Speaker 1: Let's talk about this Loyola team. What happens to you?
7:25
Speaker 1: How bad is a scenario is it? How bad of
7:27
Speaker 1: a scenario is it for you if Loyola wins, given
7:30
Speaker 1: all the long odds, etcetera, etcetera. Well, out of the
7:35
Speaker 1: four teams that are in it, in terms of the
7:36
Speaker 1: future bets, it's it's the worst case scenario for us,
7:40
Speaker 1: but it's not a doomsday scenario. So we we were
7:43
Speaker 1: pretty quick to move this team. If you remember, before
7:45
Speaker 1: the tournament even started, we said this is one of
7:47
Speaker 1: the teams that can be a kind of a bracketbuster.
7:50
Speaker 1: So we knew that there was gonna be some of
7:52
Speaker 1: some people that were going to take a shot with
7:54
Speaker 1: them at three hundred to one and two hundred to one,
7:56
Speaker 1: so we were very quick to move them. So most
7:59
Speaker 1: of the money we got on Loyola was in the
8:01
Speaker 1: neighborhood of probably fifty to one. We took a couple
8:06
Speaker 1: of tickets at a hundred and fifty to one, but
8:09
Speaker 1: no significant tickets, you know, ten dollar bets that a
8:12
Speaker 1: hundred fifty to one. I think the biggest ticket we
8:15
Speaker 1: wrote is maybe fifty dollars at a hundred and fifty
8:17
Speaker 1: to one. So you know, we're not going to get crushed,
8:21
Speaker 1: but it's not our best scenario. Um. It's kind of
8:24
Speaker 1: interesting that now that they're they're in the final four,
8:28
Speaker 1: they're they're actually betting this team against Michigan, which is
8:32
Speaker 1: kind of kind of what they figured. They got this
8:35
Speaker 1: far as big underdogs, and they're no longer the sizeable
8:39
Speaker 1: underdog they were at the beginning of the tournament. So
8:41
Speaker 1: now it's anybody's ball game. And and it's good to
8:44
Speaker 1: have a team like this in with the blue bloods,
8:47
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's you know, you want to see
8:50
Speaker 1: the Dukes and Kentucky's and Kansas is in there all
8:54
Speaker 1: the time for UH to to have that big name
8:57
Speaker 1: in there, but you always want at least one team
9:00
Speaker 1: that kind of sneaks its way in the years that
9:03
Speaker 1: we had like a Butler. Uh. You know, it's a
9:07
Speaker 1: good story and and and it keeps some interest, you know,
9:10
Speaker 1: you get kind of a David versus Goliath feel in
9:13
Speaker 1: this thing and it kind of makes for interesting betting.
9:16
Speaker 1: So I don't necessarily think we would want three or four,
9:19
Speaker 1: you know, nine seeds or eleven seeds, but U certainly
9:22
Speaker 1: one of them going up against a lot of one
9:24
Speaker 1: and two and three seeds is in bed. So I
9:27
Speaker 1: have a couple of thoughts on this number one. The
9:30
Speaker 1: action excuse me, excuse me, I had a little cough there.
9:35
Speaker 1: Actually network, the the action network is still thanks to
9:42
Speaker 1: our fiasco of an event the first weekend of Attorney
9:46
Speaker 1: where we bought all those future tickets and then couldn't
9:48
Speaker 1: give them all the way because we were kicked out
9:50
Speaker 1: of the event before we could finish. Um, we are
9:53
Speaker 1: still holding a future ticket and we all Chicago at
9:57
Speaker 1: five to one to win the tournament. So um, we
10:02
Speaker 1: can make back a significant amount of the money that
10:04
Speaker 1: we spent on our heart know, on our on our
10:11
Speaker 1: marketing investment if Leola wins that event. Uh number one,
10:15
Speaker 1: number two, I feel like people have been betting Loyola
10:20
Speaker 1: all through this tournament, Like this number has moved in
10:23
Speaker 1: Yola's direction every single time. So tell me what Loyola
10:26
Speaker 1: is against Michigan right now? Uh? They're five, they're getting
10:29
Speaker 1: five points, and we open it. We opened it six
10:33
Speaker 1: uh and got a couple of big bets from some
10:36
Speaker 1: sharp guys, and then the public kind of followed them
10:38
Speaker 1: as well. So the ticket account it's about two to
10:41
Speaker 1: one in favor of Loyal Chicago. How big were the bets, Like,
10:45
Speaker 1: how much did the wise guys bet? Uh? They were
10:48
Speaker 1: betting like between five thousand and ten thousand. So they're
10:52
Speaker 1: making big bets there. Those are big numbers they are
10:56
Speaker 1: for usually uh, I mean we usually we don't get
10:59
Speaker 1: this type of sizeable bets immediately following uh, the the
11:03
Speaker 1: Elite eight games. I mean, usually they take a couple
11:07
Speaker 1: of days to uh to handicap this to think about it.
11:10
Speaker 1: But this was right out of the gate. So they
11:12
Speaker 1: had their number kind of in mind right out of
11:15
Speaker 1: the gate on this one and got got driven down,
11:19
Speaker 1: you know, pretty pretty pretty much right out of the gate.
11:22
Speaker 1: Why do you think that is? Well, I mean, like
11:25
Speaker 1: we just said that the fact that they they they've
11:29
Speaker 1: upset everybody so far, so to make it this far,
11:33
Speaker 1: this is a really good team. I Mean it's one
11:36
Speaker 1: thing to say that they're they're surprising everybody, but it's
11:39
Speaker 1: in many respects, this team entered the tournament very underrated.
11:43
Speaker 1: So some of the some of the sharp handicappers that
11:46
Speaker 1: have uh followed this team through about the season knows
11:49
Speaker 1: that they could play at a much higher caliber uh
11:51
Speaker 1: than most people thought going into It's not that they're
11:53
Speaker 1: suddenly just you know, playing so much above their head
11:57
Speaker 1: than they've played all season. A lot of handicappers this
12:01
Speaker 1: is the way they've played all season, So it's not
12:03
Speaker 1: as big of a surprise, uh that they've gotten this far.
12:06
Speaker 1: And I've heard a lot of the professionals talk about
12:10
Speaker 1: this team, like I said, before the tournament even started,
12:12
Speaker 1: so um to be getting you know, six points even
12:16
Speaker 1: against Michigan seems like, uh, you know, there's a little
12:19
Speaker 1: bit of value there that this team could easily uh
12:23
Speaker 1: uh play play real close with Michigan and possibly win
12:27
Speaker 1: the game. So that leads to a very natural question,
12:32
Speaker 1: which is why did you set the numbers so high? Well,
12:37
Speaker 1: you know, we have we have our our numbers kind
12:40
Speaker 1: of pre set before all these games, and then we
12:42
Speaker 1: make we make adjustments throughout the tournament, and we've been
12:45
Speaker 1: making some adjustments. I don't think we made too much
12:47
Speaker 1: of an adjustment after the Nevada game, because uh, that
12:51
Speaker 1: game kind of panned out the way the way we
12:54
Speaker 1: sort of thought could have went either way. The line
12:56
Speaker 1: was one or two, but prior to the tournament, we
13:01
Speaker 1: would have made Michigan a nine nine and a half
13:03
Speaker 1: point favorite against Loyal Chicago. So we we have made
13:08
Speaker 1: some significant adjustments, but we can't um, uh make too
13:12
Speaker 1: much of an adjustment, you know, looking back on it, Yeah,
13:15
Speaker 1: maybe we could have lowered it a point because I
13:17
Speaker 1: really thought the public would probably bet Michigan a little
13:20
Speaker 1: bit more, uh than they have. So I kind of
13:24
Speaker 1: knew that the wise guys may may like Loyal Chicago,
13:26
Speaker 1: but I did think that the public would be on
13:28
Speaker 1: the favorite a little bit more. And we do have
13:31
Speaker 1: a week before the game, so they could come back
13:34
Speaker 1: on them. But uh, it looks like, uh, even the
13:38
Speaker 1: public might might like Loyal as kind of that Cinderella team.
13:42
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, you're so wrong about this game. Yeah,
13:46
Speaker 1: you should have opened this game at four, and that's
13:51
Speaker 1: the only way you were going to get Michigan money.
13:53
Speaker 1: You were going to be at four. You're gonna be
13:55
Speaker 1: at four by today's Monday afternoon. You'll be at four
13:59
Speaker 1: by Wednesday. Um, it's the power of Sister Jean. Everybody
14:05
Speaker 1: is a sentimentalist at the end of the day, okay.
14:08
Speaker 1: And so what you're getting is the wise guys who,
14:12
Speaker 1: like we we've talked about this a thousand times, like
14:15
Speaker 1: so one of us literally wrote a book about it.
14:18
Speaker 1: That the wise guys love betting college basketball because there
14:23
Speaker 1: are teams like Loyola that nobody pays attention to all
14:26
Speaker 1: year and are really good, fundamentally selling basketball teams that
14:30
Speaker 1: can go in in a tournament and with a few
14:33
Speaker 1: days to prep and then potentially you know, twenty four
14:37
Speaker 1: hours to prep. They have really good coaches, they get
14:40
Speaker 1: really good players who stick around, and so they can
14:44
Speaker 1: sort of run circles around a lot of these teams
14:46
Speaker 1: that might be more athletic but don't have his experience
14:50
Speaker 1: to crew. And wise guys love that in teams, which
14:53
Speaker 1: is why you've seen the wise guys coming in Loyola
14:56
Speaker 1: UM throughout the tournament and why they pounded that number
14:59
Speaker 1: of as it posted and look like Loyola that's the
15:05
Speaker 1: best story there's been in a college basketball for like
15:07
Speaker 1: five years. So there's no way you're not going to
15:09
Speaker 1: get money on that. Team. You you like, we're sitting
15:12
Speaker 1: in your cubbyhole of an office and you missed it.
15:14
Speaker 1: You missed the biggest story and it's gonna cost you.
15:18
Speaker 1: It is. It's gonna cost us a few thousand. So
15:20
Speaker 1: but they, you know what, Michigan can can win this
15:23
Speaker 1: thing and cover You know how easily a team can
15:25
Speaker 1: be up four and then suddenly that four becomes five
15:28
Speaker 1: and that becomes seven, and you know, in a in
15:30
Speaker 1: a matter of ten seconds, the line can swing five
15:33
Speaker 1: points when you get down into the free throw shooting. So, uh, Michigan.
15:37
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not gonna count Michigan out. And this one,
15:40
Speaker 1: this is this is a team that was uh was
15:43
Speaker 1: not expected to to make it this far at the
15:45
Speaker 1: beginning of the year and got so much better throughout
15:48
Speaker 1: the season. You know, certain certain times you don't realize
15:52
Speaker 1: these kids that are eighteen, nineteen, twenty years old, the
15:55
Speaker 1: amount of progress they make in the short span between
15:59
Speaker 1: November and March is huge. I mean, these kids are
16:02
Speaker 1: still maturing and they're learning, and the strides that they
16:05
Speaker 1: can make, they may be playing the best ball ever
16:08
Speaker 1: for the in their in their careers. So I'm not
16:11
Speaker 1: going to count out this this Michigan team and the
16:14
Speaker 1: fact that they can't cover six points. You know, I'm
16:17
Speaker 1: okay with this. We're gonna have to scoot through. Let
16:20
Speaker 1: this ship, you know what I'm saying. Yeah, there you go,
16:25
Speaker 1: I will speak let this. I am taking Loyola and
16:30
Speaker 1: those points and not listen. I'll take it at five.
16:33
Speaker 1: That's right, fine with that. You can be on the
16:35
Speaker 1: other side. It's gonna be sad for you. And they're
16:41
Speaker 1: fairytale ends here it is Big Blue. Also, uh, Big
16:47
Speaker 1: Tony is going to be very angry about are you
16:50
Speaker 1: losing all this money? Yeah? Yeah, so Big Tony he's
16:57
Speaker 1: already he's already not happy because the Sweet six team
17:01
Speaker 1: didn't go as well as it went for us last year.
17:03
Speaker 1: M hm, really who screwed it up for you? Um?
17:09
Speaker 1: Probably a duke Syracuse that that turned out to be
17:13
Speaker 1: a pretty big one. And then Villanova. So those two teams,
17:16
Speaker 1: I will see, that's what's interesting. Right. So this uh,
17:20
Speaker 1: this weekend, I had I bet Loyola. I bet Loyola
17:24
Speaker 1: UM to cover the game, but then I also bet
17:28
Speaker 1: Loyola to cover the second half, which I lost. Then
17:31
Speaker 1: I bet the Michigan Florida State under and on Sunday
17:36
Speaker 1: I had I had Duke to cover minus three. I
17:41
Speaker 1: also had Villanova cover minus six and a half. And
17:44
Speaker 1: the things you were saying about Michigan or what I
17:47
Speaker 1: felt about Villanova, like, Loyola is a good team. I
17:51
Speaker 1: think they're so consistent. They play the same every night
17:54
Speaker 1: and you know what you're gonna get, and they are
17:56
Speaker 1: in a place where they can pretty much keep teams close.
17:59
Speaker 1: Its exis tech. I just felt like it was gonna
18:02
Speaker 1: be one of those games where they had their run.
18:04
Speaker 1: They were pretty good, but their offense isn't good enough,
18:07
Speaker 1: and Villanova is just so much better and is so
18:10
Speaker 1: quietly dominating in the tournament right now that it's kind
18:14
Speaker 1: of being forgotten because and so how what what did
18:19
Speaker 1: you open Villanova Kansas at? We opened this one at five,
18:23
Speaker 1: but I'm very quickly I'm probably gonna go to five
18:27
Speaker 1: and a half, really really quiquickly. We haven't moved it yet.
18:31
Speaker 1: But all the money is the bigger money's on Villanova.
18:34
Speaker 1: The ticket account is pretty even, so it's not it's
18:37
Speaker 1: not as lopsided as the ticket account in the Michigan
18:41
Speaker 1: Loyal Chicago game. But I could see the money piling
18:45
Speaker 1: up on Villanova and just looking at the betting pattern
18:48
Speaker 1: through throughout the tournament, and you touched on it a
18:51
Speaker 1: little bit. Villanova has really not doesn't seem like they've
18:54
Speaker 1: been tested very much at all throughout this entire tournament.
18:57
Speaker 1: They've really kind of had their way, not just in
19:00
Speaker 1: winning the game, but in covering the spreads. They really
19:03
Speaker 1: even the number hasn't really even been that close. I mean,
19:06
Speaker 1: like you said, Texas Tech kind of pulled within striking
19:10
Speaker 1: range of get of the six and a half seven,
19:12
Speaker 1: but really they were more closely closer to that ten eleven,
19:15
Speaker 1: twelve range. So Villanova has just been really rolling through
19:20
Speaker 1: this thing. So and there hasn't been as much support
19:24
Speaker 1: for Kansas. And you know from the from the opening
19:27
Speaker 1: round when people thought that Kansas might be the number
19:30
Speaker 1: one seed to to possibly get upset um in the
19:34
Speaker 1: in their first game. So and they've never been really,
19:38
Speaker 1: uh that confident in this Kansas team with a history
19:42
Speaker 1: of kind of getting knocked out as a high seed. Um,
19:45
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be a lot more support for
19:47
Speaker 1: for Villanova later on in the week. I mean, you
19:51
Speaker 1: are going to get destroyed on that game. So if
19:55
Speaker 1: it comes loyal in Chicago Villanova in the finals. It
19:58
Speaker 1: might be make up for a really great championship game,
20:01
Speaker 1: but it won't be good for our bottom line. On
20:04
Speaker 1: Final four Saturday, they definitely will not be I mean
20:09
Speaker 1: it's gonna be really it's gonna be really, really interesting. Uh,
20:13
Speaker 1: everybody is going to bed Villanova because there's nobody who
20:15
Speaker 1: has confidence in Kansas. They haven't been bet on there
20:18
Speaker 1: like the most, Like they have been considered the most overrated.
20:23
Speaker 1: They've had that let me rephrase, there's no number one
20:26
Speaker 1: seed in the last five years that it had that
20:29
Speaker 1: has had lower expectations than Canvas. Right. They get to
20:34
Speaker 1: see the one seed every time and then everyone's like, yeah,
20:37
Speaker 1: they shouldn't be a one seed, right, And they get
20:40
Speaker 1: to the lead eight every year. This year they beat Duke,
20:42
Speaker 1: a really good team in the Final four. Like, but
20:45
Speaker 1: people are so overwhelmed with Villanova, like they're gonna get
20:49
Speaker 1: all the money. Oh boy, So I'm moving the money
20:52
Speaker 1: line right now. So so hang on one second. I'm
20:55
Speaker 1: just moved the money line up to minus two forty
20:58
Speaker 1: from to thirty on Villanova. So I'm I'm I'm moving
21:02
Speaker 1: this this game up a little bit. Grinella. It feels
21:06
Speaker 1: like we're gonna have to do a line change. There
21:10
Speaker 1: you go, all right, so we've established you're gonna get
21:13
Speaker 1: killed on Loyola at plus five, which will probably end
21:16
Speaker 1: up at plus four against Michigan. You're gonna get destroyed
21:19
Speaker 1: on Villanova at uh what is it? Minus five? You said, yep,
21:24
Speaker 1: in a five year you're gonna get screwed on that.
21:26
Speaker 1: You've just executed a line change. I will not ask
21:29
Speaker 1: Grannell to do anything about that on the money line.
21:32
Speaker 1: Let me ask you quickly about about MLB season win totals,
21:36
Speaker 1: because we had a really good story at Action network
21:38
Speaker 1: dot com this weekend by Dan McGuire in which he
21:41
Speaker 1: basically said, fade every hot public trend for MLB season
21:48
Speaker 1: win totals last year. The most bet teams by the public,
21:52
Speaker 1: uh for season win totals were the Dodgers under the
21:57
Speaker 1: Mets over the Tigers, over the Cardinals, over the Orioles
22:03
Speaker 1: over the Royals over and the Padres under. Of those
22:09
Speaker 1: seven bets, how many do you think the public one
22:16
Speaker 1: four one one the most of the seven most MLB
22:25
Speaker 1: season win totals last year that we're bet by the public.
22:30
Speaker 1: H only one the Royals over. They were at seventy
22:34
Speaker 1: five and a half. They won eighty games. That was
22:37
Speaker 1: the only one that went over. So are you when
22:42
Speaker 1: you say the public is betting them, are are you
22:44
Speaker 1: talking about just a change in the line that is
22:49
Speaker 1: indicating or are they actually you know, you know what
22:51
Speaker 1: I mean? Like if a game, if a season win
22:53
Speaker 1: total opens up at eighty five and it closes at
22:56
Speaker 1: eight seven, is that what's considered the most bet We
23:00
Speaker 1: were considering it as a greater than sevent of bets
23:04
Speaker 1: across three sports books. Okay, what do you think? I
23:09
Speaker 1: just want to know what do you think? Pretty accurate? Yeah? Yeah, no,
23:13
Speaker 1: that's that's accurate. I just wanted to know what the
23:15
Speaker 1: criteria was. It's good, it's good good. So same criteria
23:18
Speaker 1: this year, um, Dodgers under. So this is what people
23:22
Speaker 1: should be writing down. Let me pause for a second.
23:24
Speaker 1: Let me let people grab their phones, get out like
23:28
Speaker 1: the notes app or whatever they're using in their phones
23:31
Speaker 1: and whatever, or they want to get a piece of paper. Um,
23:35
Speaker 1: if Grunelle wants to use uh this time to yell
23:39
Speaker 1: at me for ten or twelve seconds about something, well,
23:42
Speaker 1: people grab notes, that's cool too. We can go silent.
23:49
Speaker 1: What do we think of that? Yeah? That was like
23:51
Speaker 1: a prayer. Yeah, now I noticed Brunell didn't say anything.
23:57
Speaker 1: Grunelle like he hates me. I can feel it. Um,
24:02
Speaker 1: all right, ready, these are the Cornell at any point
24:05
Speaker 1: that he wants to jump on and be like, no,
24:06
Speaker 1: I don't hate you, Chad, think you're cool. I thank you,
24:11
Speaker 1: appreciate that. Ready. Dodgers under wins. The Dodgers are gonna
24:17
Speaker 1: win about a hundred games. Nationals over and a half wins.
24:21
Speaker 1: They will win ninety seven games. Giants over eighty three
24:24
Speaker 1: and a half games. Um, they are going to win
24:28
Speaker 1: about eighty games. It's gonna they're overrated this year. Mets
24:31
Speaker 1: over eighty two and a half. Boy, they are in
24:35
Speaker 1: for a surprise because that team is not going to
24:37
Speaker 1: be very good. Rangers under seventy six and a half games.
24:42
Speaker 1: Um burned buying the Rangers. I'm big on the Rangers
24:46
Speaker 1: this year. Athletics over seventy five and a half. This
24:50
Speaker 1: team stinks. Reds under seventy four A lot of games
24:55
Speaker 1: you gotta lose if you're the Reds. White Sox over
24:58
Speaker 1: sixty nine and a half. This team is really bad.
25:01
Speaker 1: Public is gonna lose that one. Marlin's under sixty four
25:04
Speaker 1: and a half. So we have nine. We have nine
25:08
Speaker 1: bets that the public is on against Scooch. I'll read
25:13
Speaker 1: them to you again so you can decide and comment.
25:16
Speaker 1: Dodgers under Nationals over Giants, over Mets, over Rangers, under
25:26
Speaker 1: A's over Red's under white sucks over Marlin's under Yeah,
25:36
Speaker 1: I agree with you on the Mets. What was the
25:40
Speaker 1: what was the Dodgers? You said that they're they're betting
25:42
Speaker 1: Dodgers under wins. People are betting the Dodgers under nine wins. Yeah,
25:48
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to agree with them there. You I
25:52
Speaker 1: know that, I know it's a good team, but uh,
25:55
Speaker 1: you're so you're saying the opposite that they're gonna go
25:57
Speaker 1: over wins, right, Okay, that one I'm going to disagree
26:04
Speaker 1: with that tough, tough division there, um, And I mean
26:09
Speaker 1: there's just really you're you're just relying on on Kershaw
26:13
Speaker 1: and that pitching staff. Um. But that's a lot of
26:17
Speaker 1: wins and I'm just not I'm not I'm not sold
26:20
Speaker 1: that the Dodgers are going to get to get to
26:23
Speaker 1: that hundred mark, like you said, like you want what
26:26
Speaker 1: do you think of the Rangers under? I think the Rangers, Yeah,
26:32
Speaker 1: I would go over that. I would Yeah, I would
26:35
Speaker 1: definitely go over that. Um, good organization, can good team
26:39
Speaker 1: better than expect it this year. I think the only
26:44
Speaker 1: one of these that I really really agree with the
26:46
Speaker 1: public on probably the Gnats over ninety three and a half. Yeah,
26:54
Speaker 1: I mean if they stay healthy. Um that the whole
26:57
Speaker 1: thing with them is is fighting the injury bug every year.
27:00
Speaker 1: But I mean if they if they get the older
27:03
Speaker 1: their star players to make it through an entire season
27:06
Speaker 1: with minimal injuries, I think they should be able to
27:08
Speaker 1: get to that mark. What are your biggest liabilities right
27:11
Speaker 1: now in season? Wind tunnles with the season what two
27:13
Speaker 1: or three days away? Um, Houston, Actually they're betting Houston
27:20
Speaker 1: under with us a little bit. We did open them
27:22
Speaker 1: up kind of high ninety six and a half. The
27:24
Speaker 1: astro grows. Uh, the Yankees, Um, they were betting the
27:29
Speaker 1: Yankees over three and a half, so we went up
27:33
Speaker 1: to nine four and a half on the Yankees. Uh.
27:37
Speaker 1: Most of the big name teams that they were betting
27:41
Speaker 1: the Red Sox over as well, so most of the Dodgers.
27:46
Speaker 1: We have pretty good, pretty good two way though, so
27:49
Speaker 1: U that that's why I'm also asking where your your
27:54
Speaker 1: your sample size is from. But uh, we're not. We're
27:58
Speaker 1: not lopsided on that them. I believe that you will
28:03
Speaker 1: get killed on the Astros. I actually think I think
28:07
Speaker 1: the actors are gonna win a hundred and two games
28:09
Speaker 1: this year. They're scary good they are. They are. I mean,
28:13
Speaker 1: we tried to tried to make them pretty high, but
28:15
Speaker 1: uh boy, they I guess everybody just feels the same
28:18
Speaker 1: way that they're going to come back back to back,
28:20
Speaker 1: same team, even better than they were last year. I
28:23
Speaker 1: mean they were. Most of their guys are pretty young,
28:27
Speaker 1: so I wouldn't doubt it. The guys are young, and
28:30
Speaker 1: some of their guys, like some of their best players
28:32
Speaker 1: were hurt last year, some of the big players you know.
28:35
Speaker 1: Also on Action network dot Com we wrote about like
28:37
Speaker 1: where some of the value is. We thought the value
28:41
Speaker 1: was on the Astros over because they're being trajected to
28:44
Speaker 1: win a lot more games than the Vegas bookmakers are
28:47
Speaker 1: saying they're gonna win. Yep. Well, I mean I hope
28:51
Speaker 1: you're right. You said seven seven of the biggest games
28:53
Speaker 1: last year, only one of them one, So hey, maybe
28:56
Speaker 1: we get lucky again this year. I mean, the good
28:58
Speaker 1: thing is that when we start in these wind totals,
29:01
Speaker 1: it's in the middle of football season, so if we
29:04
Speaker 1: do lose big, it kind of gets hidden in the
29:06
Speaker 1: mix of how that particular football week went for us. Well. Also,
29:11
Speaker 1: the good news is, uh, you'll probably be able to
29:14
Speaker 1: make it up later in baseball season, especially since you're
29:16
Speaker 1: gonna lose so badly in the Final four this weekend. Yeah,
29:19
Speaker 1: well that's true too. Yeah, so we're just used to losing.
29:23
Speaker 1: I'm hopeful for you. Yeah yeah, all right, scoog it's
29:28
Speaker 1: time to go. Coming up next on the part Uh,
29:32
Speaker 1: can I finish? Can I finish? My promo for the
29:34
Speaker 1: next segment? I'm coming. Oh my god, please every time
29:44
Speaker 1: I start coming up, okay, coming, I'm not gonna I'm
29:57
Speaker 1: gonna shut up. I'm shutting up. Just go ahead. Coming
30:00
Speaker 1: up next, Coming up next on the podcast, Stanford Steve's
30:03
Speaker 1: gonna talk to us about the Fertile four. Stanford Steve
30:06
Speaker 1: from ESPN. He's famous. Thanks Scooch, All right, thank you,
30:11
Speaker 1: talk you buddy. Bye. Joining me now the second half
30:15
Speaker 1: of the buffet. As promised, Stanford Steve Coughlin from Sports
30:20
Speaker 1: Center from the SPC s VP Sports Center Show from ESPN.
30:27
Speaker 1: Everybody knows him. What's going on? Brother? All right? Man man,
30:31
Speaker 1: good time of year. It's a great time of year. Um.
30:35
Speaker 1: I am from Chicago. I grew up in the North
30:39
Speaker 1: Shore of Chicago. When I was growing up, uh De
30:42
Speaker 1: Paul and Loyola in the eighties were basketball powerhouses, two
30:47
Speaker 1: small Catholic schools in the north side of Chicago. I've
30:50
Speaker 1: driven by the Loyala campus, um No. Less than ten
30:55
Speaker 1: thousand times, and I know the school well. I love
30:59
Speaker 1: the school. I'm super excited about what's happening. I mean
31:03
Speaker 1: I did not have them getting anywhere close to this.
31:05
Speaker 1: I had him winning in the first round. I think
31:07
Speaker 1: I had him winning in the second round too, but
31:08
Speaker 1: I did not have him going this far. What you're
31:11
Speaker 1: thinking on that they were? They were the ultimate team
31:15
Speaker 1: this year, Chad that I think I got talked out
31:18
Speaker 1: of going farther than I wanted to put. Just saying
31:22
Speaker 1: my bracket, not from a not from a gambling since,
31:26
Speaker 1: but just from the bracket. Like I saw him against Miami.
31:30
Speaker 1: I liked him, I and I watched this team. I
31:32
Speaker 1: saw him play against go down the floor and win
31:35
Speaker 1: early in the year. Um, you know, but like as
31:38
Speaker 1: far as the bracket, just felt like they were that
31:40
Speaker 1: public team that oh yeah, because on the bottom of
31:43
Speaker 1: that bracket you had since that is the two seed,
31:45
Speaker 1: Tennessee is the three seed. You know, both teams have
31:49
Speaker 1: never really done much in the tournament. Rick Barnes at
31:51
Speaker 1: Texas everyone always liked to pick against him. So I
31:56
Speaker 1: liked the team. But at the days, I mean, that
31:58
Speaker 1: happens to me all the time. And arts madness is
32:01
Speaker 1: you get the bracket on Sunday and then Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday,
32:05
Speaker 1: what are you doing here? Listen, You're talking to people
32:06
Speaker 1: about the tournament, and everybody had that eleven seed over
32:10
Speaker 1: Miami and I I got turned out. I had him
32:14
Speaker 1: in the street sixteen. I went back and I had
32:16
Speaker 1: him moving to Tennessee because I felt like too many
32:19
Speaker 1: people were on them. Uh. Not to take anything away
32:22
Speaker 1: from him. It's been an awesome story. They deserve everything
32:25
Speaker 1: they got and they are good. I I was talking
32:28
Speaker 1: last night, I think this Loyola team, without a doubt,
32:31
Speaker 1: it's better than the Butler team that you can't be
32:35
Speaker 1: in the in the final. Uh. A couple of years ago,
32:38
Speaker 1: not the Gordon Hayward team that Duke beat, but the
32:40
Speaker 1: Butler team that you can beat with Kemba Walker. You know,
32:43
Speaker 1: it's so interesting, You're you're touching on two things here
32:48
Speaker 1: that become commonplace in sports, which is the conventional wisdom,
32:54
Speaker 1: group think conversation. So the brackets come out, and I
32:59
Speaker 1: think the consensus was Loyola over Miami, New Mexico State
33:07
Speaker 1: over Clemson, Marshall, Marshall beating UM. Who did which which
33:14
Speaker 1: to state? UM? I think Charleston. A lot of people
33:18
Speaker 1: had Charleston beating Auburn. Uh. They were like those four
33:22
Speaker 1: teams that everybody was talking about if you looked at
33:25
Speaker 1: it from a bracket perspective and from through the prism
33:29
Speaker 1: of just betting on those games. Even the public was
33:32
Speaker 1: on those teams like they were all underdogs. The money
33:35
Speaker 1: and the tickets were all on those underdogs. And it
33:39
Speaker 1: does it gets to you about, Wow, I thought I
33:43
Speaker 1: knew something. I've watched this team play. I'm pretty smart
33:46
Speaker 1: and inside about college hoops. And then you get to
33:48
Speaker 1: it in every single shmow who's putting in a bracket
33:51
Speaker 1: is thinking Loyola New Mexico State Charleston and Marshall and
33:54
Speaker 1: it it completely makes you rethink exactly what you're doing
33:57
Speaker 1: because you don't want to be in the same side
34:00
Speaker 1: the public. I feel like March Madness is a very
34:03
Speaker 1: specific time where our best instincts as people who follow
34:07
Speaker 1: this play against us. Yeah, without the hell and And
34:12
Speaker 1: you know, I'm I'm a nice guy, just like you are.
34:15
Speaker 1: You're you're hanging out, You're talking around the water pool
34:17
Speaker 1: at work every day, right generally, I mean a lot
34:20
Speaker 1: of times I'm sitting by myself in my office, you know,
34:23
Speaker 1: on the third floor of my house and West Hartford,
34:25
Speaker 1: and the most undoing is is maybe talking to grenw.
34:30
Speaker 1: But I get a point like, I don't work at
34:32
Speaker 1: a esp anymore. I don't really have anyone else to
34:34
Speaker 1: talk to. I don't even have an office in the city.
34:36
Speaker 1: I figured out it's pretty bad when you're calling me
34:40
Speaker 1: to join the podcast. Dude, I pegged you three weeks ago.
34:43
Speaker 1: I said, coming on, it's gonna be. It's gonna be
34:46
Speaker 1: before Sweet Final four. You did. I'm just kidding with you.
34:51
Speaker 1: I know you're but but there's a second point here,
34:53
Speaker 1: because I didn't really ask you a question. The first
34:55
Speaker 1: point I just said, I just wanted you to agree
34:57
Speaker 1: with my my ad mature. Um it's seeping in again,
35:02
Speaker 1: like people are saying, Oh, this Lonola team is actually
35:04
Speaker 1: a really good basketball team and they can compete with anybody.
35:07
Speaker 1: And that scares me also because I don't I don't
35:10
Speaker 1: know if they're as good as Michigan. I love John Belon.
35:12
Speaker 1: I think he's an amazing coach. How do you see
35:14
Speaker 1: this game matching up? Well, you mentioned it, John bee Line.
35:19
Speaker 1: I am starting my power rankings of coaches to wager on,
35:23
Speaker 1: and I think John Belin is my favorite coach to
35:25
Speaker 1: bet on in all of sports. I really really think.
35:31
Speaker 1: I'm serious. I really think that. I just the preparation.
35:38
Speaker 1: It seems like every year Michigan is a better version
35:42
Speaker 1: of what they were the year before. You know, they're bigger,
35:45
Speaker 1: they're they're more balanced, except the free throw shooting this year.
35:49
Speaker 1: That's what scares the crap out of me. I'll give
35:52
Speaker 1: Rhees Davis a ton of credit. He was on them,
35:54
Speaker 1: he said, you know after the Big Ten Tournament. Obviously
35:57
Speaker 1: loved them as the final four team, but they had
35:59
Speaker 1: the X the the free throw shooting aspect, they have
36:03
Speaker 1: it almost gave away the game. We all know that
36:06
Speaker 1: plenty of people had Michigan and the lead eight thanks
36:09
Speaker 1: to the Florida State not folowing and everybody being mad.
36:12
Speaker 1: But b Line, just you know what you're getting. You've
36:15
Speaker 1: seen it so many times, going back to the Big
36:18
Speaker 1: East Tournament when I used to go in West Virginia
36:20
Speaker 1: was in it, he was the coach there. Every March
36:22
Speaker 1: they would make a run their boom. They go that
36:25
Speaker 1: tournament Sweet sixteen with not really a great team. They
36:29
Speaker 1: got lucky a couple of times. I should say they
36:31
Speaker 1: were unfortunate to have to play. I want to say Patino,
36:35
Speaker 1: you know five uh and Patino had you had a
36:39
Speaker 1: hot team and that was that was a dictator to
36:42
Speaker 1: go to the final four. But I just know what
36:45
Speaker 1: I'm getting with Michigan. I know they're gonna be good
36:47
Speaker 1: from outside. I know they're gonna win when they don't
36:50
Speaker 1: play their best. And you have to do that in March,
36:54
Speaker 1: and I think Villanova did it more than once, which
36:58
Speaker 1: is it is hard to to come by in the March.
37:01
Speaker 1: In March madness, especially in the Anti tournament, because I
37:04
Speaker 1: always say you have to win at least one game
37:06
Speaker 1: when you don't play your best. I think Villanova has
37:08
Speaker 1: won two times already not playing their best, which scares me.
37:12
Speaker 1: But Michigan is that is that lower tier of Villanova
37:17
Speaker 1: where they you know, in the Big Ten tournament day
37:20
Speaker 1: to go to overtime to be Iowa because they shot
37:22
Speaker 1: like twenty or fifteen percent from three point range. How
37:26
Speaker 1: many other teams in the nation could do that and
37:28
Speaker 1: still win a game in advance when they need all
37:30
Speaker 1: the wins they could get this time of year. So yes,
37:34
Speaker 1: I think John Bee lines at the top of my
37:36
Speaker 1: list when it comes to coaches and and gambling in sports.
37:40
Speaker 1: All Right, that is a massively both statement and I
37:43
Speaker 1: need to follow up on that in a second. But
37:45
Speaker 1: I agree with you about back in the day when
37:47
Speaker 1: I did have an office and a lot of people,
37:49
Speaker 1: uh to talk to you in a daily basis. Um,
37:52
Speaker 1: we did an issue of ESPN the magazine called One Day,
37:55
Speaker 1: One Game, and we flooded the zone on a on
37:58
Speaker 1: a huge sporting event, and it was the year that
38:00
Speaker 1: b Line in Michigan. Who's that guy who's been a
38:04
Speaker 1: total bust that point? No, no, no, Trey. It was
38:08
Speaker 1: a couple of years ago, like two thousand twelve, Trey Burke. Right,
38:12
Speaker 1: So Burke was on that team, did he really? Yeah,
38:17
Speaker 1: that's so much of Tim Hardaway Jr. Yeah, they had
38:25
Speaker 1: the big kid that got hurt, got drafted by the Thunder.
38:28
Speaker 1: That's right, Mitch Mitch something or other. Right, Yeah, Like
38:32
Speaker 1: it's like when he was you know, he was like
38:35
Speaker 1: a Texas ranger. Like everything everything he did like he
38:39
Speaker 1: could you know, Chuck Norris like it was Mitch so
38:42
Speaker 1: and showed like he could just stop the world on
38:44
Speaker 1: its axis because he was um. We did a whole
38:49
Speaker 1: issue about them and in the game they played against
38:52
Speaker 1: Ohio State because it was the year, like every week
38:54
Speaker 1: it seemed like the Big ten at four buzzer beaters
38:57
Speaker 1: and they were amazing and b Line, we did a
39:00
Speaker 1: huge story about him. It just seemed like the greatest
39:03
Speaker 1: guy and the smartest coach technically sound, His players loved him.
39:08
Speaker 1: He didn't take it so seriously, like he knew how
39:10
Speaker 1: to sort of ride the wave of a season and
39:14
Speaker 1: the rhythm of his players to get the most out
39:16
Speaker 1: of him at the right time. And he did that
39:17
Speaker 1: in the tournament to that year, I think they went
39:20
Speaker 1: to the finals. Yeah, they lost the Louisville again. Now again,
39:27
Speaker 1: I didn't really ask you a question there. I'm just
39:31
Speaker 1: trying to support your facts when you don't have the
39:34
Speaker 1: fact in front of you. So the second thing is
39:40
Speaker 1: John Bielin would be your your um top all time coach,
39:44
Speaker 1: your top coach to bet on in a cross sport
39:49
Speaker 1: bet On coaches ranking. That's really interesting. I would put
39:54
Speaker 1: him up there. Um. I mean, I don't know how
39:58
Speaker 1: you don't have Bill Belichick a's up that list. It
40:00
Speaker 1: doesn't seem like, you know, generally outside the super Bowl,
40:04
Speaker 1: like the regular season. I gotta think he's the guy
40:07
Speaker 1: you bet on, like he's got to be number one.
40:09
Speaker 1: I see. I disagree. I think the Patriots are always
40:13
Speaker 1: the lines are too inflated. I and I know you
40:16
Speaker 1: and Scoots are the NFL guys, but I'm not really
40:20
Speaker 1: an NFL guy. I would I mean, I would lean
40:23
Speaker 1: towards NFL wise, I don't. I don't, I don't Belichick.
40:28
Speaker 1: I'm always here to lay at so many points with
40:29
Speaker 1: the Patriots, known how their defense hasn't been what it
40:33
Speaker 1: has been in year species? Am I not right? That's
40:35
Speaker 1: not the right take to have NFL wives Well, this
40:38
Speaker 1: year he's been amazing, Like even against the lines that
40:40
Speaker 1: were massively inflated and on the road, they were just
40:44
Speaker 1: it didn't seem to matter. They were breaking all the
40:46
Speaker 1: rules that you would expect. Okay, I mean yeah, I
40:50
Speaker 1: mean Brady, I just think more of players quarterbacks in
40:53
Speaker 1: the NFL. You know when i'm when I'm thinking of
40:57
Speaker 1: more than coaches, who would be your number two? And
41:00
Speaker 1: is number one? Who's your number two? In all sports? Uh?
41:07
Speaker 1: You have to have Urban Meyer up there. Uh huh.
41:11
Speaker 1: I have to say Scott Frost the last couple of
41:14
Speaker 1: years has been unbelievable. Um. Chip Kelly for a long
41:18
Speaker 1: time would have been a guy. Yep, Um, I don't.
41:22
Speaker 1: I don't bet on my alma mater, but I'm sure
41:24
Speaker 1: that people really enjoyed David Shaw because I always think
41:31
Speaker 1: they're gonna lose. So interesting, all right, I have enough
41:37
Speaker 1: uh what do they call that? Emotional emotional hedge? Yeah?
41:42
Speaker 1: I have enough enough emotions on the game, so there's
41:45
Speaker 1: no need to add anything into the game. It's the
41:50
Speaker 1: opposite of emotional hedge. Okay. Um, Jim Calhoun used to
41:57
Speaker 1: be up there. Uh. Yukon was one of those march teams.
42:01
Speaker 1: But Beline man Like. It's just I always know what
42:05
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get. And I didn't um have the gravita
42:11
Speaker 1: to pick Michigan to go to the final four because
42:13
Speaker 1: again I thought too many people were so I went
42:16
Speaker 1: with the one seed in my bracket, Xavier. That did
42:18
Speaker 1: not work out well. Um so, but you know, the
42:23
Speaker 1: thought was there. You know who was your who was
42:26
Speaker 1: your original photophour? You do not want to know I had.
42:32
Speaker 1: I don't know if anybody got to the sweet sixteen.
42:35
Speaker 1: I had Oh yeah, I had Perdue, I had uh Tennessee,
42:44
Speaker 1: I had Xavier, and I had Michigan State. Was that Tennessee? Yeah,
42:53
Speaker 1: they're one shot away from being there? Yeah. I just
42:59
Speaker 1: I have no faith in Rick Barnes and I just
43:00
Speaker 1: don't think that. Like to me, that was that team
43:03
Speaker 1: wasn't anomaly this year I had. I had Cincinnati winning
43:08
Speaker 1: it all, Gonzaga, Villaneuva and Michigan State. Had Cincinnati, Michigan
43:16
Speaker 1: State in the finals. Wow, I had all four number
43:21
Speaker 1: one season my women's bracket, and that's that's that's happening.
43:23
Speaker 1: But nobody wants to ever have me on a podcast
43:25
Speaker 1: to talk about that. Nope, not interested. I it's not
43:28
Speaker 1: and I'm not anti women's basketball. It's harder to bet
43:34
Speaker 1: on it. It's harder to find your outs. Uh, the
43:37
Speaker 1: advantages are are less apparent. Um. Alright, So with loyal
43:43
Speaker 1: in Michigan, the team that's really good that you think
43:46
Speaker 1: is better than the Butler teams from a few years ago,
43:49
Speaker 1: as in comparison versus your favorite coach to bet on.
43:53
Speaker 1: And what is the number at right now? Is it five?
43:56
Speaker 1: Right now? Yeah? Five? So, uh, you look at that number,
44:02
Speaker 1: what do you think? I look at the other number
44:06
Speaker 1: over under, and I kind of like the over. I
44:08
Speaker 1: think these teams are skilled enough offensively two make shots,
44:13
Speaker 1: make enough shots, um, And I think it's gonna be
44:16
Speaker 1: a clean game. Both teams are are obviously gonna have
44:20
Speaker 1: time to prepare. We talked about that, but I still
44:23
Speaker 1: think there's enough shot making ability, uh for both teams
44:27
Speaker 1: to score sixty plus. So I like the over. If
44:30
Speaker 1: I had to, I did it in the Elite eight
44:32
Speaker 1: game with Michigan. You just feel like people are on
44:38
Speaker 1: the Michigan. They like the bigger name team, they like
44:40
Speaker 1: that they play in the bigger conference. I think when
44:43
Speaker 1: it comes down to this time, so I would probably
44:46
Speaker 1: lay the two d and just take Michigan money line.
44:51
Speaker 1: I am looking at the total right now and it
44:53
Speaker 1: listed at one nine and a half. Wow, that's up there, Okay?
44:59
Speaker 1: Uh I still yeah, yeah, sah thirties those two teams care.
45:11
Speaker 1: I think Loyal is gonna cover this game, Okay. I
45:16
Speaker 1: think it's gonna be really close. If you're saying, boyfriend,
45:19
Speaker 1: I would take Loyola too. Yeah. So why would you
45:24
Speaker 1: pay the minus two hundred on Michigan on the money
45:26
Speaker 1: line instead of paying minus one ten on Loyola at
45:29
Speaker 1: five points? Because I think Michigan's gonna I'm more confident
45:32
Speaker 1: on Michigan's gonna win the game that I am with
45:36
Speaker 1: the points playing a little huh yeah. I think the
45:42
Speaker 1: old the cold Pizza confidence confidence meter breaking it out.
45:50
Speaker 1: That's good. What about what about uh Villanova in Kansas
45:56
Speaker 1: that games at five? Also? It is um this one.
46:01
Speaker 1: I feel like everyone is going to bet Villanova and
46:06
Speaker 1: I would have to say, I don't love it. I
46:08
Speaker 1: would take Kansas here. Bill Susman great, even though I
46:12
Speaker 1: still feel like people get on him for his early exits.
46:15
Speaker 1: I mean, he's been a three straight lead eights. He's
46:17
Speaker 1: back in the final four, he's in San Antonio where
46:19
Speaker 1: they won the title in two thousand and eight when
46:21
Speaker 1: all four one seeds went and and and made that
46:24
Speaker 1: final four. I I get it. Villanova's is I mentioned
46:30
Speaker 1: they've They've won multiple games not playing their best. But
46:34
Speaker 1: I think Kansas has the athleticism. Villanova did not blow
46:38
Speaker 1: me away in that East Regional against West Virginia or
46:43
Speaker 1: or Texas Tech. I thought uh Dvin Cenzo was a
46:47
Speaker 1: better offensive player. Um Spellman's phenomenal. He doesn't get any
46:52
Speaker 1: credit for for what the things he is he does,
46:56
Speaker 1: defending in the paint, moving out, making threes. He turned
47:00
Speaker 1: in the whole West Virginia game around with that block
47:02
Speaker 1: and put back dunk Um. But Reynald, and I'm Reynald Brunson. Really,
47:08
Speaker 1: I don't know if he's an NBA player, great college player.
47:11
Speaker 1: Totally expecting to see him back in college next year.
47:13
Speaker 1: But I think Kansas has the athleticism to guard him
47:17
Speaker 1: and rebounding as book he saw him in fall trouble
47:20
Speaker 1: against Duke. But Susa, I think those two guys can
47:23
Speaker 1: help Kansas hang on the boards. And Makala and and
47:27
Speaker 1: Graham are are making I mean Kansas made the threes
47:31
Speaker 1: when he counted against Duke. And I think they're battle tested.
47:34
Speaker 1: I I've been. I think this is maybe the fifth
47:38
Speaker 1: year in a row. I said they weren't gonna win
47:39
Speaker 1: the Big twelve, and here they are again. But I
47:42
Speaker 1: I would feel pretty good taking the points with Kansas.
47:47
Speaker 1: Here you, I gotta tell you on tour, I feel
47:52
Speaker 1: so good about Loyal in Chicago at plus five and um,
47:58
Speaker 1: I Villanova has been so phenomenal and making it look
48:04
Speaker 1: relatively easy, uh, covering at a very generous pace. Um,
48:09
Speaker 1: if you actually look at it. We have a great
48:11
Speaker 1: story on Action network dot com today about that looks
48:14
Speaker 1: at the relative ease with which teams made it to
48:18
Speaker 1: the final four. And if you look at the Vegas expectations,
48:23
Speaker 1: Loyola actually um had a relatively easy march, Like they
48:29
Speaker 1: exceeded the Vegas expectations by seven points per game, meaning
48:33
Speaker 1: whatever the spread was, they beat the closing number by
48:35
Speaker 1: seven points. Villanova has done the exact same thing like
48:39
Speaker 1: Villanova Loyola if you look at Vegas expectations, have both
48:42
Speaker 1: had the same easy path to the final four. Uh.
48:47
Speaker 1: The difference is that Loyola has had to do it
48:51
Speaker 1: playing it as well as it's ever played in the
48:53
Speaker 1: history of the school. And Villanova is doing it shooting
48:58
Speaker 1: and like not even scratching the surface of their potential.
49:03
Speaker 1: And so I feel like if that team puts it
49:06
Speaker 1: all together, they just don't seem Kansas feels inconsistent to me,
49:11
Speaker 1: streaky and athletic and inconsistent. Villanova feels like they're playing
49:16
Speaker 1: the same no matter what way they're shooting, and the
49:19
Speaker 1: only difference is how many points are scoring. Are they
49:21
Speaker 1: scoring seventy? Are they scoring ninety? Do you know what
49:24
Speaker 1: I mean? That's my analysis. Yeah, I totally see you there.
49:29
Speaker 1: I just Kansas. I was moving on the inconsistency. But man,
49:34
Speaker 1: they showed me a lot uh in this in this
49:37
Speaker 1: tournament and in the in the Big twelve tournament when
49:39
Speaker 1: they didn't have as a book game they were sitting
49:42
Speaker 1: them with the sprain kne So obviously this is the
49:46
Speaker 1: second game, it's the bigger matchup to bigger name programs.
49:49
Speaker 1: But Dolanova does still have that sense that they haven't
49:53
Speaker 1: busted all the way out and no one can touch them.
49:57
Speaker 1: But I mean, if you're getting this late in March,
49:59
Speaker 1: Chad and and there's five points out there you could
50:02
Speaker 1: turn into you know whatever. Six I mean, I'm I'm
50:06
Speaker 1: always gonna take points that I can't stand given points
50:09
Speaker 1: in this tournament. You're convincing me only because also I
50:20
Speaker 1: feel like I feel like, you know, bias is an
50:23
Speaker 1: important hairent. Bias is an important part of UM of betting,
50:28
Speaker 1: and I have an inherent bias against Kansas. I feel
50:31
Speaker 1: like they are they underperform, even though they generally haven't,
50:35
Speaker 1: as you pointed out. And so I don't know why
50:39
Speaker 1: I picked Duke as a three point favorite this weekend,
50:42
Speaker 1: and which I never do, but I also picked I
50:45
Speaker 1: also picked Nova as a six and a half point favorite, UM,
50:48
Speaker 1: which I never do. So I think I'm gonna stick
50:52
Speaker 1: with Nova. Okay, That's what I think. I'm just doing it,
50:57
Speaker 1: no complaint, I'm going No, I'm going with Illinois Chicago.
51:03
Speaker 1: I like it. Then who do you think is gonna
51:05
Speaker 1: like it? Who do you think is gonna win? I
51:07
Speaker 1: mean Villanova was what minus win the whole thing this morning? Um,
51:14
Speaker 1: So I mean, if you like Villanova, I'm imagining you
51:17
Speaker 1: already had it before the tournament. Before the Sweet sixteen,
51:20
Speaker 1: they were three to one. I I mean, if that's
51:25
Speaker 1: the matchup. I don't I don't see Loyal of being
51:27
Speaker 1: able to score with Villanova, even though they do have
51:31
Speaker 1: five guys and double figures. And I know that, but
51:35
Speaker 1: I mean, when when everybody's at their best, it's I
51:39
Speaker 1: think it's easy Villanova. But it just always feels like
51:42
Speaker 1: in these national semifinals, this is this is where the
51:46
Speaker 1: teams slip up. And I think you're convincing me at Loyola,
51:53
Speaker 1: and I'm convincing you with Kansas. I think Kansas is
51:56
Speaker 1: going to be the least amount bet team without a
51:58
Speaker 1: doubt in these games. You feel you feel me on
52:01
Speaker 1: that one. Okay, So but if you're gonna go that,
52:05
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Michigan Dollanova and I'm gonna stay. I'm
52:11
Speaker 1: gonna stay in Michigan wins the national time. Wow. I
52:18
Speaker 1: would I would like that to be the case. I
52:21
Speaker 1: would like I would like Michigan to win the national title.
52:24
Speaker 1: I'm a huge John bee Line fan. Um, I like
52:28
Speaker 1: the Michigan program, Like he makes me happy. Yeah, he's
52:33
Speaker 1: he's as good as there is man. It's uh, it's
52:36
Speaker 1: it's pretty pretty special what he's done with that program
52:40
Speaker 1: and from where it was and the Um, the amount
52:45
Speaker 1: of people that are involved in that program, you know,
52:47
Speaker 1: the fan base, the alumni, and it just feels like
52:50
Speaker 1: it's almost turned into a matter of fact thing. With
52:52
Speaker 1: John bee Line in Michigan the final four or the
52:55
Speaker 1: lead eight in March, it's amazing. All right, Well, that
52:58
Speaker 1: would make my house and for a bowl because my
53:01
Speaker 1: wife went to Michigan alight. In fact, in fact, I
53:07
Speaker 1: can tell you a story back when we were in college,
53:10
Speaker 1: back in the Stone Age. UH I was there. Indiana
53:14
Speaker 1: Michigan were number one in the country. This was nine three,
53:18
Speaker 1: So it's the Fab four, It's the Fab five UH,
53:21
Speaker 1: and it's they were number two in the country and
53:24
Speaker 1: we had Indiana had Calbert Cheney and Greg Graham and
53:28
Speaker 1: Chris Reynolds and Cayman Bailey was on the team Pat Graham,
53:35
Speaker 1: UH and UM. Indiana was number one. They played on
53:39
Speaker 1: Valentine's Day weekend in Bloomington's. I was dating my wife
53:44
Speaker 1: then she was just my girlfriend. She was visiting from Michigan.
53:46
Speaker 1: Came in for Valentine's Day. Indiana was down by thirty
53:50
Speaker 1: points in the first half, came back and UH came
53:54
Speaker 1: back and they won in the second half. Assembly Hall
53:57
Speaker 1: is going crazy and everyone going nuts. After the game,
54:02
Speaker 1: I'm supposed to meet Stacy, my then girlfriend now wife,
54:05
Speaker 1: at my house where I'm living. And I get home
54:08
Speaker 1: and she's not there, and she calls me and she says,
54:12
Speaker 1: UM called me from the pay phone. She's like, I
54:15
Speaker 1: just want you to know I'm already on the way
54:17
Speaker 1: back to ann Arbor. I can't come back to your house.
54:20
Speaker 1: You'll be too annoying. I'll talk to you later. Wow. Wow,
54:28
Speaker 1: not awful. You didn't forget that one. I didn't forget
54:31
Speaker 1: that one because she thought I would be He thought
54:34
Speaker 1: I would be gloating so much about Indiana's win she
54:37
Speaker 1: couldn't bother coming and say goodbye to me in a
54:40
Speaker 1: long distance relationship. I think that's fine. I do too.
54:45
Speaker 1: I actually respect that I did too. All right, Stanford,
54:50
Speaker 1: unless you're gonna tell me one of your favorite love
54:53
Speaker 1: stories about courting your wife, I guess we're done. I
54:56
Speaker 1: think we're gonna be done. Chad, listen. I think we're
54:59
Speaker 1: all gonna be rooting for Michigan. Like I will be
55:01
Speaker 1: okay if I if Michigan gets there, as long as
55:05
Speaker 1: I win my bed, and I'll be very happy with
55:07
Speaker 1: Michigan winning it all all right, all right, brother good Luck,
55:12
Speaker 1: thanks for coming on the podcast him talk to you.