Latest / Foul Territory / Robert Murray’s Insider Update + Pontes evaluates Okamoto & Takahashi

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Robert Murray’s Insider Update + Pontes evaluates Okamoto & Takahashi · Foul Territory

0:04
Speaker 1: Hey, we've got Robert Murray from Fans Added joining us
0:06
Speaker 1: right now. This is when he thrives their insider and
0:09
Speaker 1: joining us frequently here on FT. Robert, great to see you.
0:13
Speaker 1: You look well rested. That's going to change over the
0:15
Speaker 1: next few weeks. We'll see you down at the Winter
0:16
Speaker 1: meetings too, which I'm excited about. That'll be in my
0:18
Speaker 1: backyard in Orlando. Dude, let's start with Kyle Schwarbert. I
0:22
Speaker 1: just wanted to get your thoughts on what his market
0:24
Speaker 1: is looking like. It sounds like there are a ton
0:26
Speaker 1: of teams interested, but I'm curious how many of them
0:29
Speaker 1: are seriously going to get up to a number that
0:31
Speaker 1: he's good with, and how many of them he's going
0:34
Speaker 1: to consider contenders.
0:35
Speaker 2: This is going to be his last contract.
0:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, and well, first of all, I want to say
0:39
Speaker 3: thank you for saying that I'm well rested. I literally
0:41
Speaker 3: just got out of the steam room before I hopped
0:43
Speaker 3: on the show here, so I had I appreciate that. Yeah,
0:48
Speaker 3: but no, with Shorebert, like he's my favorite player in baseball, Like,
0:52
Speaker 3: how could you not love Kyle Schwarber. He hits bombs
0:55
Speaker 3: Like shore bombs are like the best thing in baseball.
0:58
Speaker 3: He hits for power, great leader, gets on base pretty frequently,
1:02
Speaker 3: and he's just a total package. And if you're the
1:05
Speaker 3: Philadelphia Phillies, you need to do everything in your power
1:08
Speaker 3: to keep him. If you're the Boston Red Sox, you
1:11
Speaker 3: need to write that wrong when you ended up letting
1:13
Speaker 3: him leave as a free agent when he went to Philadelphia.
1:16
Speaker 3: If you're the Toronto Blue Jays, when you want to
1:18
Speaker 3: take a big swing, why not go after Schwarber or
1:21
Speaker 3: even Kyle Tucker. He's from the Midwest area, so you
1:24
Speaker 3: got to think some of those teams would be involved.
1:26
Speaker 3: He was asked about the possibility that Cincinnati Reds the
1:29
Speaker 3: other day, I believe maybe even it was yesterday, and
1:32
Speaker 3: he didn't shoot that down. I mean, there's so many
1:34
Speaker 3: teams that could use a Kyle Schwarber, that need a
1:37
Speaker 3: Kyle Schwarber. He's going to do very well in free agency.
1:40
Speaker 3: It's going to be like as eventual contract is going
1:43
Speaker 3: to start with a three probably thirty million dollars per year,
1:46
Speaker 3: probably well well more than that. Whether it's three, four,
1:49
Speaker 3: five seasons remains to be seen. But to me, he's
1:52
Speaker 3: the best player in the market. And if I was
1:54
Speaker 3: a GM, which I'm not. I would do everything in
1:57
Speaker 3: my power to possibly sign him, but.
2:00
Speaker 4: Couldn't he hamstring a team? I watched him a lot
2:03
Speaker 4: here in Philly. I you know, I watched him when
2:05
Speaker 4: I worked for the Red Sox. Like, he obviously brings
2:08
Speaker 4: that extra value, that extra clubhouse value. But a lot
2:11
Speaker 4: of teams with expire not expiring contracts, but contracts that
2:15
Speaker 4: are getting deeper into their age, aren't they leary of
2:19
Speaker 4: locking up any DH for any amount of time, let
2:23
Speaker 4: alone for four or five years.
2:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, that part's tricky for sure. And I think he's
2:29
Speaker 3: an elite enough player that you don't really hesitate in
2:32
Speaker 3: doing so. And I was talking to Craig Breslo and
2:35
Speaker 3: he like he made it clear he can't talk about
2:37
Speaker 3: any specific player because he didn't want to get get
2:39
Speaker 3: in trouble or anything. But he said, when you have
2:42
Speaker 3: an elite player like such as a David Ortiz, like,
2:44
Speaker 3: you don't hesitate. You make him your designated hitter and
2:47
Speaker 3: you don't think twice about it, Like, yeah, he likes
2:49
Speaker 3: flexibility at the DH spot, like rotating guys. There is
2:53
Speaker 3: something that he's definitely open to. But when you have
2:56
Speaker 3: an elite player, in this case Schwarber, that could be
3:00
Speaker 3: the exception to the rule, which is why I think
3:02
Speaker 3: Boston or plenty of these other teams should take that risk,
3:07
Speaker 3: which I don't know if it's necessarily well, I mean,
3:09
Speaker 3: there's always risk with contracts, but with Schwarber, that's like
3:13
Speaker 3: a really good gamble to take.
3:15
Speaker 5: And that's what I was kind of getting to my
3:17
Speaker 5: next question. There's always teams lurking, and especially two teams
3:20
Speaker 5: I think of, Well, one, you got always number one
3:23
Speaker 5: guy's always the Dodgers, of what they did last year,
3:26
Speaker 5: what do you see from them? And then you got
3:28
Speaker 5: the Mets and Stevie Cohen over there is not afraid
3:30
Speaker 5: to pull off anything. You know, not only with Swarber,
3:33
Speaker 5: but do you see any of those two teams going
3:34
Speaker 5: after some high priced guys to get them back to
3:37
Speaker 5: where they need to be? Well, the Mets back to
3:39
Speaker 5: where they need to be, not the Dodgers.
3:41
Speaker 3: No, for sure, And I feel like both of those
3:43
Speaker 3: teams should never be ruled out. Like Steve Cohen he
3:45
Speaker 3: spends on like almost any owner in baseball, and the
3:48
Speaker 3: Dodgers their ability to stockpile of talent and be competitive
3:53
Speaker 3: year in and year out. Is admirable, and with the Dodgers,
3:57
Speaker 3: I'm not ruling it out, but for them, they're probably
4:00
Speaker 3: are clear, uh they want to add to the bullpen,
4:03
Speaker 3: and whether that's a Devin Williams type, which I believe
4:06
Speaker 3: Faby and Ardaya of The Athletic reported that first that
4:08
Speaker 3: he's interested or that they're interested in in Devin Williams.
4:12
Speaker 3: Even a guy like Pete Fairbanks would make a lot
4:14
Speaker 3: of sense for the Dodgers too, And you would think
4:17
Speaker 3: maybe they end up looking for an outfielder of some sort.
4:20
Speaker 3: Whether that could be just speculating, but I think a
4:23
Speaker 3: Harrison Bayer type would be a great fit for the
4:25
Speaker 3: Dodgers and really add to that outfield defense. But they're
4:28
Speaker 3: also evaluating their internal options there as well. But you
4:31
Speaker 3: can never roll out of splash with them the Mets.
4:34
Speaker 3: They they need to figure out the pitching side, and
4:36
Speaker 3: they also need to figure out defensively as well, what
4:40
Speaker 3: like how they can upgrade that that defense, and those
4:43
Speaker 3: are two things that David Stearns is really known for.
4:45
Speaker 3: He thrived with that in Milwaukee. I expect him to
4:48
Speaker 3: do so. I just don't know the caliber of player
4:51
Speaker 3: that they're that they're gonna be able to go out
4:53
Speaker 3: and sign. But that being said, with Steve Cohen, you can't.
4:57
Speaker 3: You can't really rule anything out there.
5:00
Speaker 4: I danced around it a little bit. The Dodgers are
5:03
Speaker 4: good at DH, so Schwarber ain't it for them? The
5:06
Speaker 4: Guy Show show, Hey, I think it's Otani otanny. I'm
5:10
Speaker 4: not sure how to get Maybe he's probably he's probably
5:14
Speaker 4: good unless they can make another rule for the Dodgers
5:17
Speaker 4: where they could have two d hs in the lineup,
5:19
Speaker 4: which Major League Baseball already makes rules for the show. Hey, Dodgers,
5:23
Speaker 4: So that's that's totally fine. But I want to go
5:25
Speaker 4: back to one of the teams that was actually in
5:31
Speaker 4: on Schwarber, and that's the Pirates. I don't necessarily need
5:34
Speaker 4: to talk about them being in on Schwarber because that's
5:37
Speaker 4: laughable to me, but supposedly they were in with a
5:41
Speaker 4: much lower offer on Naylor, on Josh Naylor. So are
5:46
Speaker 4: the Pirates really going to be spenders? And if so,
5:51
Speaker 4: why and what level are we going to? Are they
5:54
Speaker 4: just doing this to like make sure major League Baseball
5:57
Speaker 4: knows that, Oh, it's so tough for these small mare
6:00
Speaker 4: teams to even compete, so they have to make these
6:03
Speaker 4: piss poor offers.
6:06
Speaker 3: Like I love that the Pirates are actually willing to
6:08
Speaker 3: go out and bolster their offense because I've been I've
6:11
Speaker 3: been hoping for this for years now. And they have
6:14
Speaker 3: the pitching staff. You have Paul Skean's, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller,
6:18
Speaker 3: Bubba Chandler. I mean, they have the pieces there in
6:21
Speaker 3: the rotation, and it's they're young, and they're they're signed
6:24
Speaker 3: cheap too, with the exception of Keller, and then offensively,
6:28
Speaker 3: they traded key Brian Hayes at the deadline. They saved
6:31
Speaker 3: a good amount of money and my indications then were
6:35
Speaker 3: that they were going to reinvest it back into the roster.
6:37
Speaker 3: And the early indications this offseason are yeah, like they're
6:40
Speaker 3: going to go out and do that. And Ben Cherrington
6:42
Speaker 3: told me at the at the GM meetings that they
6:46
Speaker 3: have more flexibility now than they've had in most off
6:48
Speaker 3: seasons there in Pittsburgh. And we saw that with Josh Naylor,
6:51
Speaker 3: who is definitely a player they coveted there in Pittsburgh.
6:54
Speaker 3: Obviously did not get him. He went back to Seattle.
6:58
Speaker 3: But they're going to be fishing its different waters than
7:00
Speaker 3: they've been in previous years, and like, yeah, like the
7:03
Speaker 3: Shoreward thing, I have a pretty hard time seeing that
7:06
Speaker 3: as well. Like that would be that'd be a big surprise.
7:10
Speaker 3: But the fact that they're even mentioned of those kind
7:12
Speaker 3: of players is a really cool thing. But if I'm
7:14
Speaker 3: looking at Pittsburgh, I would imagine like a Ryano Hearn
7:17
Speaker 3: type or someone along those lines could be a really
7:21
Speaker 3: good fit and maybe a more realistic match. But obviously
7:25
Speaker 3: they signed Tommy fam last offseason. They had a great
7:28
Speaker 3: experience with him. I would not rule out a reunion there,
7:31
Speaker 3: but Fam is not going to be would not be
7:34
Speaker 3: the last of their last of their moves there. They're
7:37
Speaker 3: going to be in the market for offense, meaningful offense,
7:40
Speaker 3: and maybe it gets to the point when we can
7:43
Speaker 3: talk about them being a playoff team, which would be
7:45
Speaker 3: really exciting.
7:46
Speaker 4: Robert, I'm gonna put you on the spot, and this
7:48
Speaker 4: might be being putting you on the spot. Do you remember
7:51
Speaker 4: their last multi year free agent contract? Yeah, because that
7:55
Speaker 4: was one of my first stories ever, broke Francisco Lariano
7:58
Speaker 4: three years for thirty nine million. Yeah, I'll never forget it.
8:01
Speaker 2: There you go.
8:02
Speaker 4: So what about what about their last free agent position
8:06
Speaker 4: player multi year deal. Russell Martin.
8:11
Speaker 3: Oh, I was gonna say, James Russell Martin, Wow.
8:14
Speaker 4: So what year was that? You know, the thirteen, thirteen
8:18
Speaker 4: and fourteen. I think you got a two year deal.
8:20
Speaker 4: So if you're if you're telling me this is what's
8:23
Speaker 4: going to happen, all I have to say is prove
8:26
Speaker 4: it from the Pirates. Yeah, prove it. Don't don't don't,
8:29
Speaker 4: don't give me. We were in on him. We called
8:32
Speaker 4: Kyle Tucker and he actually talked to us. It was amazing, Like,
8:37
Speaker 4: to me, I needed to be proved. That's it.
8:39
Speaker 3: No, I totally agree, like talk is cheap. But this
8:42
Speaker 3: year they seem more serious about it than they have
8:45
Speaker 3: in previous offseasons, so like, we'll see. I'm more optimistic
8:49
Speaker 3: about it. But yeah, the proof is in the pudding.
8:51
Speaker 3: And you gotta you gotta talk the talk, you gotta
8:53
Speaker 3: walk the walk, you gotta do all that stuff. And
8:55
Speaker 3: I hope that happens because Pirates fans deserve a playoff team.
8:59
Speaker 3: They are a very passionate fan base, and they were
9:01
Speaker 3: constantly hitting me up asking like what's my team doing?
9:04
Speaker 3: And hopefully this offseason I can say they're doing a
9:07
Speaker 3: whole lot.
9:07
Speaker 2: So we'll see.
9:10
Speaker 5: I want to go over a little more to the
9:12
Speaker 5: right side. On the East coast, they were talking about
9:14
Speaker 5: the Yankees a little bit. Jazz Chisholm, really good player,
9:17
Speaker 5: thirty thirty. What do you think about him signing back
9:21
Speaker 5: with the Yankees and moving forward with that situation. I
9:24
Speaker 5: know the Yankees aren't usually the ones that hit right away,
9:28
Speaker 5: but what do you think about that?
9:31
Speaker 3: Yeah, if I was them, I would definitely explore it.
9:33
Speaker 3: Like he was an All Star last year. He's a
9:35
Speaker 3: tremendous player. He's really been a great fit in New
9:39
Speaker 3: York and you talk to people around that team and
9:41
Speaker 3: they love them. And Brian Cashman did not shoot down
9:45
Speaker 3: the idea of a possible extension when he was asked
9:47
Speaker 3: about it at the GM meetings or on a conference
9:49
Speaker 3: call at the GM meetings. But they typically don't extend
9:53
Speaker 3: players before they reach free agency because Cashman prefers his
9:57
Speaker 3: players to reach the market so they can establish the
10:00
Speaker 3: values there. But he could be an exception to the rule.
10:03
Speaker 3: But that being said, he's a year away from free agency.
10:06
Speaker 3: He had a great year this year. If he has
10:09
Speaker 3: another great year next year, he can really just turn
10:12
Speaker 3: that into a like a very strong contract in free agency.
10:17
Speaker 3: So my guess is they poke around, they see what's
10:20
Speaker 3: going to take, but my feel is it's probably unlikely
10:23
Speaker 3: and that he becomes a free agent after the twenty
10:25
Speaker 3: twenty six season.
10:28
Speaker 1: Robert, We're getting some fan questions about some other starters,
10:31
Speaker 1: so I'll bring up Ryan here. He asked about Diamondbacks pitchers.
10:36
Speaker 1: First off, he said, what do you see Zach Allen
10:38
Speaker 1: landing in terms of money? He said, over under fifty
10:41
Speaker 1: million dollars. I know where I'd go there. And then
10:43
Speaker 1: he also said, is there signing order for starting pitchers?
10:47
Speaker 1: Like do you have to wait for a few to
10:49
Speaker 1: sign before you get to maybe the second tier of
10:53
Speaker 1: a Gallon and a Kelly.
10:55
Speaker 3: Yeah, as as far as Gallon goes, like the Diamondbacks,
10:59
Speaker 3: they have not rolled out a union there. And I
11:00
Speaker 3: also think Kelly has a very legitimate chance of going
11:03
Speaker 3: back to Arizona as well. But their markets are overall
11:08
Speaker 3: going to be pretty strong. I know Gallon if you
11:10
Speaker 3: would have asked me even a year ago, his contract
11:13
Speaker 3: would have ended up being one of the biggest in
11:16
Speaker 3: baseball in terms of free agency. Well for this offseason,
11:19
Speaker 3: I should say not overall, but he's coming off of
11:22
Speaker 3: a down season, he still showed some signs of being
11:24
Speaker 3: a really good pitcher there in Arizona, So I'm like,
11:28
Speaker 3: I still expect him to get a fairly sizable contract
11:30
Speaker 3: this offseason. So I'd take the over on fifty million.
11:34
Speaker 3: But as far as the rest of the market goes,
11:36
Speaker 3: it's always you got to wait for the top names
11:39
Speaker 3: of the market to go and then we can kind
11:41
Speaker 3: of see the other options end up coming off of
11:44
Speaker 3: the market. But all it takes is one team, and
11:46
Speaker 3: even Jed Hoyer was talking about this at the GM meetings,
11:49
Speaker 3: is all it takes is for one team to valuate
11:51
Speaker 3: a starting pitcher way more than the other teams to
11:54
Speaker 3: the point where they're aggressive with signing that picture and
11:57
Speaker 3: they go out and get him early in free agency.
11:59
Speaker 3: So maybe that has depens with Kelly, maybe that happens
12:01
Speaker 3: with Gallant. I don't know, but we'll see.
12:06
Speaker 4: That is funny that you brought that up, because I
12:08
Speaker 4: was thinking about that with Devin Williams. Devin Williams had
12:13
Speaker 4: a tumultuous Yankees campaign last year after being traded over
12:18
Speaker 4: I think he was maybe used improperly the pitch calling,
12:22
Speaker 4: but that's here nor there. Are the Yankees truly going
12:25
Speaker 4: to go back after him or is it more of
12:28
Speaker 4: like a posturing of, Hey, we had this guy, we
12:31
Speaker 4: really liked him, everybody else should like him, and then
12:35
Speaker 4: the market kind of blows up the Devin Williams train,
12:38
Speaker 4: and then they kind of pivot and go with one
12:41
Speaker 4: of the other two guys that are that high end
12:44
Speaker 4: closer role.
12:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I think their interest in keeping him
12:49
Speaker 3: is sincere. But if you look at it, there's so
12:51
Speaker 3: many teams that have been connected to Devin Williams already.
12:53
Speaker 3: We've got the Red Sox, the Reds, the Dodgers, the Marlins,
12:57
Speaker 3: the Mets, Tigers, and Giants, Like I believe those are
13:01
Speaker 3: all the teams that have been linked to him in reports.
13:03
Speaker 3: So like that's that's a lot of teams that are
13:05
Speaker 3: that are in the game right there. And like he
13:08
Speaker 3: obviously did not have a good go of it in
13:10
Speaker 3: New York, Like that was a really tough season overall
13:13
Speaker 3: for him. And my thinking is that a change of
13:16
Speaker 3: scenery would be really good for him. And maybe it's
13:18
Speaker 3: going back to a smaller market, or maybe it's going
13:21
Speaker 3: to even the Dodgers, or it's going to something like
13:24
Speaker 3: just going to a different environment where he has a
13:27
Speaker 3: chance to write a new chapter. And we like, because
13:30
Speaker 3: you caught him in Milwaukee, didn't you.
13:32
Speaker 4: I did not. I missed him.
13:34
Speaker 3: Oh okay, okay, that's not bad. But yeah, like he's
13:37
Speaker 3: he's one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball.
13:41
Speaker 3: He is, he's going to bounce back, Like I'm going
13:44
Speaker 3: to bet on the talent and just bet on his
13:46
Speaker 3: overall success and wherever he goes, like, I count on
13:50
Speaker 3: him being way closer to the version that he was
13:52
Speaker 3: with Milwaukee rather than what he was in the Bronx.
13:58
Speaker 1: One more for you, Robert finish line. We've got the
14:01
Speaker 1: non waiver or not the non waiver, the non tender
14:05
Speaker 1: deadline coming up tomorrow. Is there anything that we should
14:09
Speaker 1: be on the lookout for over the next twenty four hours.
14:13
Speaker 1: I mean, Dubon looked like one of those deals where
14:15
Speaker 1: Houston wasn't going to keep him, so they end up
14:17
Speaker 1: moving him and getting Nick Allen for some infield depth.
14:21
Speaker 1: But anything else to keep an eye on in terms
14:22
Speaker 1: of trades or a big name that could get cut.
14:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, there was one name that I thought could be possible,
14:30
Speaker 3: but I kind of had some cold water thrown on.
14:32
Speaker 3: It was Jason Adam with the San Diego Padres. He's
14:35
Speaker 3: got a bigger salaries coming off of a I believe
14:37
Speaker 3: a ruptured quad, but his recovery is going very well,
14:41
Speaker 3: and I have not got any occasions as of this
14:43
Speaker 3: point that he is a non tender candidate. I mean,
14:46
Speaker 3: we'll see, but like my feel is, especially with Robert
14:50
Speaker 3: Suarez now a free agent, potters are going to value
14:52
Speaker 3: him and he would make more on the open market
14:55
Speaker 3: than he is on his current deal, so I think
14:57
Speaker 3: he's probably safe. The other team, Like, if you would
15:00
Speaker 3: have asked me this question yesterday, I would have definitely
15:03
Speaker 3: said Mauricio Dubon. I had a pretty good idea he
15:06
Speaker 3: was going to Atlanta, but I could not get it
15:08
Speaker 3: across the finish line, which that's kind of sad. But
15:11
Speaker 3: Houston is Houston is definitely a team that is trying
15:16
Speaker 3: to shed some payrolls so they can add to the rotation,
15:19
Speaker 3: so I wonder, or just add to the pitching overall.
15:22
Speaker 3: So I wonder if they can end up being a
15:23
Speaker 3: candidate there where maybe you got guy like Jake Myers
15:26
Speaker 3: or or someone along those lines can end up being
15:28
Speaker 3: a candidate for a trade, so we'll see. But those
15:31
Speaker 3: are those are a couple that I've I've kept an
15:33
Speaker 3: eye on. But again, I don't expect Adam to get contented.
15:36
Speaker 2: Didn't you break the rice Elglacias news.
15:40
Speaker 3: I was right there with the Braves, the brave dude.
15:42
Speaker 3: The Braves are tough man like. They run a pretty
15:44
Speaker 3: pretty tight operation there.
15:46
Speaker 4: But we're I think Ryan.
15:47
Speaker 3: Arborough though, So we're on the board for the off season.
15:50
Speaker 2: There we go, There we go.
15:52
Speaker 3: He Braves operator. What Eric is doing right there?
15:55
Speaker 2: That is right undercover Braves.
15:57
Speaker 1: But don't overlook that left handed pitching market is going
16:01
Speaker 1: to get paid, right, even a guy like Ryan Yarborough.
16:05
Speaker 1: I think that's a bump from what he was making previously. Robert,
16:08
Speaker 1: good stuff, man, Thanks for coming on. Good to see
16:10
Speaker 1: you again, and uh yeah, we'll catch after your next
16:13
Speaker 1: little what is it your steam room session?
16:16
Speaker 2: Yeah?
16:16
Speaker 4: Steamroom.
16:17
Speaker 3: I feel like a million bucks, you say, I'm well rested,
16:19
Speaker 3: so it's clearly clearly it's working, baby. But I appreciate
16:21
Speaker 3: you guys as always. You're the best.
16:23
Speaker 2: Yeah you do. We'll see in Orlando coming.
16:26
Speaker 3: Up there you go, as as Kratzy said, go Birds Baby.
16:29
Speaker 1: Hey, Jeff Ponce joining us and a last minute joined
16:33
Speaker 1: because we got some news before the show started that
16:35
Speaker 1: there are more players from Japan being posted and available
16:39
Speaker 1: as free agents to sign this off season. You can
16:42
Speaker 1: catch Jeff's coverage, of course in Baseball America Baseball America
16:45
Speaker 1: dot com on Hot Sheet with me every week on
16:48
Speaker 1: that show on the BA YouTube channel.
16:50
Speaker 2: Jeff, Great to see you. I'll get right to business here.
16:52
Speaker 1: Alkamoto is getting posted by the Immuri Giants of NPB.
16:57
Speaker 1: There are some people that think that he has a
16:59
Speaker 1: significant higher floor than Murakami, who's the current big name
17:04
Speaker 1: that is going to be signed by a team this offseason.
17:07
Speaker 2: Your thoughts on him.
17:09
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think that's probably a pretty accurate assessment of
17:13
Speaker 6: the two players. You know, when you're looking at a
17:15
Speaker 6: player like Murakami, you're looking at potential forty home run
17:19
Speaker 6: power if he's able to make enough consistent contact here,
17:22
Speaker 6: there's some questions as to whether he does that or not.
17:25
Speaker 6: He's a very limited defender. On the other side of
17:27
Speaker 6: the coin. With Akamoto, you're talking about a guy that
17:31
Speaker 6: is a very polished contact hitter with approach. There's some power.
17:36
Speaker 6: I think at least from like a like a data perspective.
17:39
Speaker 6: He catches a lot of clean barrels. I don't think
17:41
Speaker 6: it's all that different from like a Kyle Manzarto in
17:44
Speaker 6: terms of how he gets to his powerware, like the
17:47
Speaker 6: top end exit velocities. You're not going to see him
17:49
Speaker 6: hit a ball one fourteen, but he'll consistently hit the
17:52
Speaker 6: ball between ninety five and one hundred and five at
17:55
Speaker 6: good angles. Doesn't miss in the zone all that much.
17:58
Speaker 6: Good approach, and he's a better defender than Murakamia. It's
18:02
Speaker 6: been a few years since he won a Gold Glove
18:04
Speaker 6: over there, but was a Gold Glove third baseman in
18:07
Speaker 6: twenty one and twenty two. Talking to folks that have
18:10
Speaker 6: scouted him over there, I was getting fifty five's in
18:13
Speaker 6: the gloves, so an above average defender at third base,
18:17
Speaker 6: and I was getting seventies at first base. He did
18:19
Speaker 6: play first base in WBC. I think it's because they
18:22
Speaker 6: didn't necessarily trust Murerkami to play first base. But he
18:26
Speaker 6: was really good over there, was one of the better
18:27
Speaker 6: hitters in the tournament. You can argue is probably their
18:30
Speaker 6: best hitter in that twenty twenty three tournament, and had
18:33
Speaker 6: a huge home run. I think people forget he had
18:36
Speaker 6: the go ahead home run in that deciding game against
18:39
Speaker 6: the US and the WBC Finals, so he has hit
18:42
Speaker 6: against big leaguers before. I do think the floor is
18:45
Speaker 6: a lot higher. He's a lot older at twenty nine
18:48
Speaker 6: years old. But at the same time, this is a
18:50
Speaker 6: guy that kind of is plug and play for any
18:52
Speaker 6: team that signs him.
18:54
Speaker 4: I saw Akamoto in two thousand and nineteen when he
18:58
Speaker 4: played for Team SAM. I thought he was a very
19:01
Speaker 4: polished hitter. And now he's obviously coming off in a
19:05
Speaker 4: tremendous platform year where he hit three thirty ish, which
19:09
Speaker 4: will definitely up his value. Is there fear that that
19:13
Speaker 4: power will be exploited in Major League Baseball only because
19:18
Speaker 4: away from home, I think he had like a two
19:21
Speaker 4: percent home run rate, Like it was two home runs
19:24
Speaker 4: every hundred at bats. It wasn't much outside of Giant
19:28
Speaker 4: outside of the Tokyo Dome in for the Giants, Like,
19:33
Speaker 4: is that a Is that a fear that they're just
19:36
Speaker 4: going to hit the bat out of his out of
19:40
Speaker 4: his hands essentially in the big leagues here?
19:43
Speaker 2: Yeah? I don't think so.
19:44
Speaker 6: I mean, I think there's still enough consistent power, like
19:47
Speaker 6: his average EV's like ninety two point five, and I
19:50
Speaker 6: think if you watch the bats pretty consistently, he catches
19:53
Speaker 6: up to velocity. Like they don't see a ton of
19:56
Speaker 6: ninety five plus over there, but they see enough. There's
19:59
Speaker 6: enough of a sample size over the last however many
20:01
Speaker 6: years to kind of look at that. The other thing
20:04
Speaker 6: is he had an elbow injury to begin the season
20:06
Speaker 6: this year, so he missed some time, which is why
20:09
Speaker 6: like the overall numbers, maybe like counting stat wise, home
20:12
Speaker 6: run totals, et cetera, don't meet what he had done
20:14
Speaker 6: in previous seasons.
20:15
Speaker 2: But I think you look at the.
20:16
Speaker 6: Overall slash line, strikeout rate, contact rate, all that sort
20:19
Speaker 6: of stuff, the quality of the abats was getting a
20:22
Speaker 6: lot better, and I think some of that stuff, you know,
20:25
Speaker 6: splits from year to year can be kind of fluky.
20:28
Speaker 6: You know, one year a guy is putting up you know,
20:31
Speaker 6: granted there are like D D. Gregorioas and like Yankee
20:34
Speaker 6: Stadium type of things. We're like, sure that plays to
20:36
Speaker 6: his swing. He has enough power and enough skills, But yeah,
20:40
Speaker 6: I don't think he's gonna hit forty home runs like
20:42
Speaker 6: he did in Japan over here. But I think putting
20:44
Speaker 6: him in the like eighteen to twenty five bucket with
20:47
Speaker 6: like a two seventy five average and good on base percentage,
20:49
Speaker 6: you can play him and expect above average or better
20:52
Speaker 6: defense at both in field corners, Like it's a pretty
20:55
Speaker 6: valuable player.
20:57
Speaker 1: I know murk Comy's gotten hit with the oh you know,
20:59
Speaker 1: he might struggle against tay v Lo. I actually was
21:02
Speaker 1: looking at Akamoto, Yeah, hitting better lately against high velocity.
21:06
Speaker 1: Just trying to make comps here back and forth. Since
21:09
Speaker 1: Murakami is getting so much attention, do you think there
21:12
Speaker 1: is any chance that Akamoto actually ends up with a
21:16
Speaker 1: better deal. I know Murakami is younger, but maybe more
21:19
Speaker 1: of an average annual value to what he signs, or
21:22
Speaker 1: Murakami is still more coveted in the market.
21:25
Speaker 4: You know.
21:26
Speaker 6: I struggle with that because I think when you're looking
21:30
Speaker 6: at just the player, like in a vacuum, like the
21:32
Speaker 6: next two years, like you probably do prefer Akamoto. But
21:37
Speaker 6: I do think the age difference and just we know
21:40
Speaker 6: how that impacts models in the draft, let alone in
21:42
Speaker 6: free agency, there just aren't a lot of guys with
21:45
Speaker 6: eighty raw power and the ability to consistently get to
21:48
Speaker 6: it with some track record against higher level pitching. Not
21:52
Speaker 6: a lot of those guys get to the market very often.
21:54
Speaker 6: So I think you're going to see more years with
21:58
Speaker 6: Mori Kami. The anual value might be a little bit
22:02
Speaker 6: closer than people expect. I still anticipate more Kami getting
22:06
Speaker 6: more And you know, maybe this isn't something that fans
22:10
Speaker 6: necessarily want to think of, but I do think when
22:12
Speaker 6: these guys are signing over here, there's almost like a
22:15
Speaker 6: marketing factor to it, like you're getting yourself into that
22:18
Speaker 6: Japanese marketplace that we know can be incredibly profitable. And
22:24
Speaker 6: you know, a guy like Maurakami, I mean, you know,
22:26
Speaker 6: his nickname is more or less like God over there,
22:30
Speaker 6: so I think he's one of like the three or
22:32
Speaker 6: four biggest stars in Japan. So there's probably like some
22:35
Speaker 6: of that coming into it too, that his dollar and
22:38
Speaker 6: his ask is probably just going to be higher.
22:41
Speaker 5: So for Akamoto and Mirakami, who do you think, like,
22:45
Speaker 5: what teams do you think are going to go after
22:48
Speaker 5: both of these guys? Is there any teams you have
22:50
Speaker 5: in mind? Or is it like, hey man, this is
22:51
Speaker 5: they can work out for any team right now?
22:54
Speaker 6: You know, I think there's obviously a lot of teams
22:57
Speaker 6: that these guys would potentially be a great fit for.
23:00
Speaker 6: You know, I wonder about Akamoto maybe being a potential
23:03
Speaker 6: Red Sox option, just based on where they're at with
23:06
Speaker 6: a third base position. I don't know how much they
23:08
Speaker 6: necessarily believe in Marcelo Meyer going in next year. They could,
23:11
Speaker 6: it's going to depend on whether he can actually finish
23:13
Speaker 6: a full season healthy for the first time in his life.
23:16
Speaker 6: That hasn't happened yet, So I don't think that that's
23:19
Speaker 6: an absurd one. Certainly. I think the Yankees could be
23:22
Speaker 6: in play on either of these guys. We've heard the
23:25
Speaker 6: Blue Jays kind of kicking around some of these names.
23:28
Speaker 6: The Rangers are always in on these guys. I've heard
23:31
Speaker 6: that the Dodgers are out, but we also hear the
23:33
Speaker 6: Dodgers are out, and then two weeks later, all of
23:35
Speaker 6: a sudden, they're in the running. So I think there'll
23:37
Speaker 6: be a I would be surprised if at least half
23:40
Speaker 6: of the teams in the league don't take meetings with
23:42
Speaker 6: these guys. And it's kind of the same with with
23:45
Speaker 6: you know, Tetsuya and my who's the top pitcher that's
23:47
Speaker 6: coming over that like, for my money, based on my
23:50
Speaker 6: evaluations and the calls and the things that I've done
23:52
Speaker 6: with scouts that have worked over there, I think he's
23:54
Speaker 6: actually the top player that's coming over in terms of
23:56
Speaker 6: what his impact could be. So it'll be kind of interesting.
23:59
Speaker 6: I would imagine at least half the teams are going
24:02
Speaker 6: to be on this. Obviously, there's going to be some
24:04
Speaker 6: teams that probably aren't going to meet the asking price
24:07
Speaker 6: on the big three big free agents coming over, you know,
24:10
Speaker 6: the Pirates, those sort of teams that just don't break
24:12
Speaker 6: past those thresholds. The Guardians, I'd be really shocked if
24:15
Speaker 6: they're in on them, but you never know.
24:18
Speaker 1: I'm with you on a Maya. I'm on the high
24:20
Speaker 1: side there. From what I've read and what I've seen,
24:22
Speaker 1: I think he's a one or two. I've seen some
24:25
Speaker 1: people throw at his career walk numbers. I'm like, yeah,
24:28
Speaker 1: I'd rather look at the last year or two where
24:30
Speaker 1: the command's gotten better. So I ask about him because
24:33
Speaker 1: the other news that broke is Kona Takahashi, and Takahashi
24:37
Speaker 1: also will likely link with a major league club over
24:40
Speaker 1: the next month or so, So what do you think
24:43
Speaker 1: about him? We can mix in some comps about how
24:45
Speaker 1: much better obviously Amaya is in the upside brain, But
24:47
Speaker 1: what do you think about Takahashi first of all, who's
24:49
Speaker 1: now officially fresh on the market as well.
24:52
Speaker 6: Yeah, so this is a case of I've actually heard
24:55
Speaker 6: some people bring up that they think the reason Amy
24:58
Speaker 6: was posted when he was was because they held the
25:01
Speaker 6: bag too long on Takahashi. This is a guy that
25:04
Speaker 6: I think would have commanded a lot more a few
25:06
Speaker 6: years ago. The stuff is kind of ticked down. He
25:09
Speaker 6: doesn't have swing and miss stuff. The only pitch in
25:12
Speaker 6: his arsenal that had a thirty plus percent misrate across
25:17
Speaker 6: the four primary pitches that he throws was a slider,
25:20
Speaker 6: which is a pretty decent pitch over there. It's a
25:24
Speaker 6: little bit like a sweepere curveball. It's got a little
25:27
Speaker 6: bit of drop, a little bit of tilt. So like
25:30
Speaker 6: when I look at a player like this who throws
25:33
Speaker 6: ninety three miles an hour, doesn't ride it a whole ton,
25:36
Speaker 6: doesn't have interesting release traits. A lot of it is
25:40
Speaker 6: pitch ability, and historically we've seen players like this come
25:44
Speaker 6: over from Japan and typically not have.
25:46
Speaker 2: A lot of success.
25:49
Speaker 6: So you know, I don't know how much money he'll
25:50
Speaker 6: even command. If it might be a short term deal,
25:53
Speaker 6: maybe you know, a couple of years. I'd be surprised
25:56
Speaker 6: if he's anywhere even in shouting distance of you know,
26:00
Speaker 6: moto Ami or Murakami.
26:04
Speaker 1: Okay uh Do you have any comps for the four
26:07
Speaker 1: guys that we're talking about? Major league guys for any
26:10
Speaker 1: of them? Have you written up any comps at BA
26:12
Speaker 1: for Murakami or Takahashi or a my Alkamoto, et cetera.
26:19
Speaker 1: And I ask it in two ways. One is any
26:21
Speaker 1: comps from current big leaguers that we're looking at or
26:24
Speaker 1: former big leaguers. And also, like you said, with someone
26:27
Speaker 1: like Takahashi coming over and that particular profile not playing well,
26:31
Speaker 1: have we seen other players from overseas come over with
26:33
Speaker 1: that profile and that success in another league and it
26:36
Speaker 1: not play well here because of the stuff.
26:40
Speaker 6: Yeah, so you know we're looking at comps. You know,
26:44
Speaker 6: I think the the Murakami comp and I think you
26:46
Speaker 6: got to sort of look at it with a scale, right,
26:48
Speaker 6: like there's probably a high end comp of like this
26:51
Speaker 6: is what the ceilings? If things go well, maybe he's
26:54
Speaker 6: you know, you Hennioswarez, which you know, big power, kind
26:57
Speaker 6: of fringy defense at third base, but can play it,
27:00
Speaker 6: And I think that's an area where Murakami really needs
27:02
Speaker 6: to improve. So I think that's that's kind of like
27:06
Speaker 6: what the high end outcome is the lower end outcome,
27:09
Speaker 6: I think just in terms of like the bat, I
27:12
Speaker 6: think is very similar to like Joey Gallo, where there
27:15
Speaker 6: could be big home run stretches where he carries your
27:18
Speaker 6: team for a few weeks, and there could be really
27:20
Speaker 6: low lows where you know, he's hitting a buck four
27:24
Speaker 6: a month and he's just not connecting and the strikeouts
27:27
Speaker 6: are ugly. Joey Gallo was a very good athlete, of course,
27:31
Speaker 6: I mean he's made the transition now I was trying
27:32
Speaker 6: to to make the transition to pitching. What was a
27:34
Speaker 6: good outfielder like Murakami doesn't have any of those sort
27:37
Speaker 6: of skills to fall back on. So I think that's
27:39
Speaker 6: kind of the range of outcomes, Like I think there's
27:41
Speaker 6: going to be some strikeouts here, there's going to be
27:43
Speaker 6: home runs, but just you know, how how much contact
27:47
Speaker 6: can he make ultimately is going to decide what his
27:50
Speaker 6: ceiling is.
27:51
Speaker 2: When I look at Akamoto.
27:53
Speaker 6: It's a it's a little harder, you know, the name
27:56
Speaker 6: that kind of came to mind, and this is like
27:58
Speaker 6: a throwback name. It's kind of like Bill Miller, where
28:01
Speaker 6: like he was a really reliable defensive third baseman, was
28:04
Speaker 6: a really consistent hitter and made contact, good approach, but
28:08
Speaker 6: it was probably like mid teen's power. I think there
28:11
Speaker 6: might be a little bit more power here then there
28:13
Speaker 6: was with Bill Miller. But Bill Miller obviously was a
28:15
Speaker 6: was a very good player. So that's kind of the
28:17
Speaker 6: first one that comes to mind. Like currently, I'm trying
28:21
Speaker 6: to think about somebody off the top of my head that's,
28:23
Speaker 6: you know, in above average third baseman that maybe doesn't
28:27
Speaker 6: have thirty home run power, and you know, nothing's coming
28:31
Speaker 6: to mind. I think like Alex Bragman is probably a
28:33
Speaker 6: little bit too rich.
28:35
Speaker 4: Evan Longoria.
28:37
Speaker 6: I don't think, Leah, I don't think like outside of like, no,
28:40
Speaker 6: not MVP Evan Longoria. But yeah, I think that's that's
28:43
Speaker 6: not a terrible come up in terms of what he
28:45
Speaker 6: can do.
28:47
Speaker 2: Let me ask this off season, Oh go ahead, you donad.
28:53
Speaker 5: I interrupted you there, but yes, it seems like this
28:56
Speaker 5: offseason there's more Japanese guys being posted and wanting to
28:59
Speaker 5: come over here. Do you think it's been been a
29:02
Speaker 5: smoother transition for them to come over here into the
29:04
Speaker 5: big leagues, into the United States. I mean, I feel
29:08
Speaker 5: like this is going to keep continuing as we see
29:11
Speaker 5: a guy like Shoho Tani and you know, the Yakamotos
29:14
Speaker 5: and all the other guys.
29:15
Speaker 2: Of the world that are going out there and dominated.
29:18
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think, you know, we've seen some of the
29:20
Speaker 6: biggest stars come over here, and you know, I don't
29:23
Speaker 6: know if there's kind of been a standard established over
29:27
Speaker 6: the last we'll say, almost ten years of like if
29:29
Speaker 6: you're one of the best players in the world, you
29:31
Speaker 6: have to come over here and kind of prove yourself.
29:35
Speaker 6: Every time I talk to folks over there or scouts
29:38
Speaker 6: over here, it is always sort of a concern in
29:41
Speaker 6: terms of like the initial touchdown in.
29:46
Speaker 2: Major League Baseball.
29:47
Speaker 6: I think for a lot of these guys can be
29:48
Speaker 6: a little bit rough because of that, you know, cultural
29:51
Speaker 6: divide and just getting yourself sort of settled into a
29:55
Speaker 6: new country and a completely different culture, and even just
29:59
Speaker 6: in terms of like how how their workout days go,
30:01
Speaker 6: like their baseball days, game day, all that sort of stuff.
30:04
Speaker 6: All that sort of things are very different from what
30:07
Speaker 6: probably what a lot of them had even experienced in Japan,
30:10
Speaker 6: so obviously the language barrier, all that sort of stuff.
30:13
Speaker 6: Do I think it's getting a little bit easier. Sure,
30:15
Speaker 6: I think, you know, teams are more cognizant of it
30:18
Speaker 6: in terms of making sure that all these guys have
30:20
Speaker 6: their resources to have the smoothest possible transition. And you know,
30:26
Speaker 6: I think that modern technology probably help helps out with
30:30
Speaker 6: some of the translation stuff that you know, in nineteen
30:32
Speaker 6: ninety five just wasn't available or easily accessible. So I
30:36
Speaker 6: think some of all that stuff is probably getting baked
30:40
Speaker 6: into it a little bit more now, and we're seeing
30:42
Speaker 6: more and more of these players come over.
30:45
Speaker 1: Jeff, good stuff, Thanks for hopping on informing us. I mean,
30:48
Speaker 1: a lot to know with some of these guys, and
30:50
Speaker 1: a lot more that you can digest over at Baseball
30:52
Speaker 1: America Baseball america dot com, get yourself a subscription, great
30:55
Speaker 1: for holiday season. They're the best in the basic covering
30:58
Speaker 1: stories like this. Jeff, thank you. I'll see you on
31:00
Speaker 1: Monday on Hot Sheet.
31:01
Speaker 2: See you then, Scott, Thanks guys, Yeah, appreciate that.
31:04
Speaker 6: Dude.
31:06
Speaker 1: All Right, we've got Trek Scoogle joining us soon on FT.
31:09
Speaker 1: But before that, here another reminder, hot sheet. We talk
31:11
Speaker 1: about topics like this every single Monday. It is part
31:16
Speaker 1: of the FT network. It's over at the Baseball America
31:18
Speaker 1: YouTube channel. If you don't subscribe to their channel, it
31:21
Speaker 1: would be cool to do. So they work their tails off.
31:26
Speaker 1: Hey we're back, do you guys. I'm gonna bring something
31:28
Speaker 1: up from the chat? Do you guys ever hear a
31:30
Speaker 1: baseball name who didn't play that long ago and you're like,
31:33
Speaker 1: oh my gosh, I forgot about his entire assistence. So
31:37
Speaker 1: I just saw one in the chat. Yeah, yo's Mani Tomas.
31:43
Speaker 1: Do you guys remember you was Mani Tomas common Backs.
31:46
Speaker 4: Common Back's got probably like thirty or fifty million dollars.
31:50
Speaker 5: Yes, he signed early too, right.
31:54
Speaker 4: He's tubing guy. I think Okay, I love playing that game.
31:59
Speaker 4: I love I love playing the Do you remember I
32:01
Speaker 4: even played that game from like college, like it was
32:05
Speaker 4: that second heasman that transferred in our sophomore year and
32:09
Speaker 4: they're like, oh, yeah, you know Jimmy Pollard And you're like,
32:11
Speaker 4: what what a name? I love that when guys, when
32:15
Speaker 4: guys do that, like Susdorff. Uh. You know guys that
32:21
Speaker 4: get called up for like one day or something like
32:23
Speaker 4: that and they play, you know, they play one big
32:25
Speaker 4: League game. Like Todd doesn't remember those guys because he's
32:28
Speaker 4: not a good teammate.
32:29
Speaker 2: I remember them all, man, I remember.
32:31
Speaker 1: Those Remember we got an influx of Cuban talent, right,
32:35
Speaker 1: like we had a real Golden era to an extent
32:38
Speaker 1: of Cuban talent. Jose Bray, you Pueague in his prime,
32:41
Speaker 1: Saspadae right, go down the line. So and hey, there
32:45
Speaker 1: were some misses too, Rusen Castillo for the Red Sox.
32:49
Speaker 1: But Thomas six years, sixty eight and a half million
32:53
Speaker 1: bucks with his contract at a Cuba Look at that,
32:57
Speaker 1: and then you know the career lasted four seasons, really
33:01
Speaker 1: played less about two seasons worth in terms of games played.
33:06
Speaker 1: And was it bat and one year with it bat
33:10
Speaker 1: was above average and he hit thirty one home runs,
33:12
Speaker 1: but that was it.
33:13
Speaker 2: League figured him out.
33:15
Speaker 1: Donzo last game was I think he made six played
33:18
Speaker 1: appearances in twenty nineteen, but really it was twenty fifteen
33:21
Speaker 1: to twenty seventeen. Just to blast from the past, we
33:24
Speaker 1: see that in the chattel.
33:26
Speaker 5: We should make that a part of one, Like every
33:30
Speaker 5: couple of days.
33:30
Speaker 4: Remember a random name. Just bring a random name up.
33:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that. Remember him and then you just chat.
33:38
Speaker 1: I would love that, you know, and then we could
33:40
Speaker 1: like rack a bunch of them in a playlist on
33:42
Speaker 1: you remember me.
33:43
Speaker 2: I'm in. I'm in.
33:45
Speaker 4: Cubans. Cubans. Something that's fun about Cuban players. They always
33:50
Speaker 4: smell so delicious when they come into the box. I mean,
33:53
Speaker 4: I played against a Cuban dude that sprayed the bottom
33:55
Speaker 4: of his cleats before every game that it smelled like
34:01
Speaker 4: bottom of his cleat's, not inside his cleat's to the bottom.
34:03
Speaker 4: I asked him to smell him one time when he
34:05
Speaker 4: was in the box.
34:06
Speaker 2: He's thick. Yeah,