Latest / Pod Save America / Democrats Go Off In An Off Year

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Democrats Go Off In An Off Year · Pod Save America

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys!
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 3: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: On today's show, Democrats worry about the debt ceiling deal
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden might make with Kevin McCarthy, but the party
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: gets good news in Tuesday's elections. Ron DeSantis will announce
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: next week because he's tired of the Republican culture of losing.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: And the most definitive report on the 2022 midterms gives
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: us clues about the 2024 electorate. Then Dan talks to
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Democratic messaging guru Anat Shinker-Osorio about smart economic messaging and
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: how Democrats should be talking about the debt ceiling. And
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: since Elijah Cohn is here with us in studio in
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Los Angeles, we're going to play a round of Take Take,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: Don't Tell Me. But first, to all the Dan Stans,
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: that's what my housekeeping says.
• 1:03
  Speaker 3: I don't even know what's coming next. I'm worried.
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: To all the Dan Stans, in case you missed the
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: Tuesday pod, we've got a big announcement. Crooked subscription community,
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Friends of the Pod, is finally here. You can subscribe
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: at crooked.com slash friends for subscriber-only bonus content. exclusive access,
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: and more. I guess we thought there were some people
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: who just listened to the Thursday pod and not the
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: Tuesday pod.
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, you have access to the analytics dashboard. I don't.
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: So that could be the case. I don't know.
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: Don't tell us. If you're one of those people, we
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: don't want to start anything.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: If you would rather I just text my family members,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: I can do that as well. That was a more
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: efficient way of doing this.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: Also, what happens when a mysterious stranger comes to town
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  Speaker 2: with a wild idea that weed can solve all the
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• 2:14
  Speaker 3: That's great. It sounds awesome.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: All right, let's get to the news. We are now
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: two weeks away From the date our government thinks we
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: won't have enough money to pay our bills, which would
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: trigger an economic catastrophe the likes of which we've never seen,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Congress could avert this crisis by simply voting to raise
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: the debt ceiling, like they did when Donald Trump was president.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: But Republicans now refuse to do so unless Joe Biden
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: agrees to gut a bunch of programs people depend on.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Staff for the president and Speaker McCarthy are now engaged
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: in direct negotiations. They've kicked everyone else out of the room.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: And Biden spoke about their progress on Wednesday, right before
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: he left for the G7 in Japan, a trip he'll
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: now be cutting short to reach a final deal.
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: To be clear, this negotiation is about the outlines of
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: what the budget will look like, not about whether or
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: not we're going to, in fact, pay our debts. The
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: leaders have all agreed we will not default. Every leader
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: has said that.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: All right, Dan, on a scale of one to buy gold,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: how are you feeling right now?
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: 5.263.
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: There was also another headline this morning that Kevin McCarthy
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: is now optimistic that they may reach a deal next week.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: I didn't see that. Now I'm up to 9.25.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Because you can always take what Kevin McCarthy says as certainty. Yeah.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: We had a White House colleague who was quite smart,
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: but he would always make predictions in very precise decimal numbers.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: And I asked him why, thinking he had really thought
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: it out. The answer is no. People think you're being
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: more precise if you take it out to the hundredth
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: of a decimal point.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: Was that Austin Goolsbee? It sounds like a Goolsbee thing.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: It was not. It was not.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: Okay. I won't keep guessing. So as we just heard
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: in that clip, Biden went from saying he won't negotiate
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: over the debt ceiling to cutting his foreign trip short
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: so he can come home and negotiate a budget deal
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: that would presumably include a debt ceiling increase. What happened?
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: You think he's doing the right thing here? Did he
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: have any other options?
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: I'm not sure he had other options. But let me
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: sort of explain what's happening because I think it is
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: quite confusing. And I would say the press coverage is
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: not really explaining it great because it's largely just taking
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: the talking points that Kevin McCarthy sends them and then
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: putting it into third person and giving it a lead.
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Well, great. That's why we have positive Americans.
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: That's why Kirk Media exists, right? So under all scenarios,
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: if the debt ceiling was eliminated, if Biden printed a
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: trillion dollar coin, if it was a 14th Amendment, if
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy folded, under all scenarios, at some point, Two
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: or so months from now, the White House, Republicans in
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: the House, and Democrats in the Senate would be involved
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: in a negotiation around the budget for next year. That
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: was going to happen no matter what. And in that scenario,
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: the Democrats were going to have to take some things
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: they did not like. That was decided the moment the
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: Republicans took the House. They now have a say in it.
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: There are going to be some things we don't want.
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: Less betting than we want on some things, some other
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: things we don't like. And there would be that negotiation.
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: That has happened in divided government since the beginning of time.
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: And the reason that negotiation would have to end in
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: some kind of a deal is because if it didn't,
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: the government would run out of money and shut down.
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: And while not as harmful as a default on the debt,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: a government shutdown is still pretty harmful and it can't
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: go on forever. So at some point, they would have
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: to reach an agreement or else the government would be
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: shut down indefinitely and we couldn't function.
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: Right. People would be hurt. The economy would be hurt.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: Individual people's lives would be disrupted. our ability to respond
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: to crises would be hampered, all of the above. What
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: President Biden is trying to do here, and this is
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: a narrow tightrope, is I think, and this is just
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: my supposition, no one at the White House has told
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: me this, that the way President Biden has looked at
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: this is he does not have faith that Kevin McCarthy
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: would be willing to save the government from default if
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: it came down to it, because it would cost him
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: his job. There can be no avoiding of default if
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy does not put a bill on the floor,
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: absent a couple of things we'll talk about in a second.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: And so what he's trying to do is help Kevin
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: McCarthy help himself by pulling this negotiation forward that was
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: going to happen anyway, cut that deal, and then would
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: allow Kevin McCarthy to go to his people and say,
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: look at what I got you from the debt ceiling,
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: which is something he actually would have got them anyway
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: later this fall. And so that is what is happening. Now,
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: the challenge here is what happens if they don't have
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: a deal when we get close to that X date.
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: President Biden said in those remarks before he left for
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: Japan that all the leaders have agreed we won't default. Well,
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: what that means is if we don't have a deal,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: are they going to do an extension of the debt settlement,
• 6:51
  Speaker 3: even if it's for a short period of time to
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: buy time to negotiate? And I think if we do
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: not have a deal quickly, that is the next move
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: for the White House is to call for a short-term
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: extension to give them time to finish the negotiation around
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: the budget. And if they won't do that, then we
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: are right back into where we were before, which is
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: looking over the cliff of default.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: And I think just this week or last week, I
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: can't remember anymore, McCarthy said that he didn't want to
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: do a short-term extension. You could imagine that if they're
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: negotiating and they're somewhat optimistic about the negotiations, but they
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: just run up to the date and still don't have
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: enough time, then you could imagine McCarthy saying, okay, I'll
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: do a short-term extension because at least we're making progress.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: If Joe Biden had never started negotiations with Kevin McCarthy,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I think the scenario is much more likely that McCarthy
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: goes right up to the date and decides that he'll
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: play chicken with Biden and Biden's the one who will
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: blink first because Biden's the responsible adult who doesn't want
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: to tank the economy. And Kevin McCarthy knows that his
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: caucus are a bunch of fucking loonies who would happily
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: tank the economy.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, what complicates this sort of I'm negotiating over
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: the budget but not the debt ceiling sort of distinction
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: without difference, we're kind of dancing on the head of
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: a pin here, is in a normal budget negotiation, Democrats
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: would ask for one thing, Republicans would ask for another,
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: and we would sort of meet in the middle. The
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: reason why President Obama originally and President Biden this time
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: did not want to negotiate on the debt ceiling is
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: it should not be a White House ask to not
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: default on the debt that Congress rang up. Like, that
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: should not be coming out of President Biden's ledger. And
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: how you keep those things separate in this sort of
• 8:28
  Speaker 3: negotiation is very challenging. We should wait to see what
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: comes out of it before we render judgment on it.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: But that is what makes this hard. That should be
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: just stipulated. We're just going to tuck that into whatever
• 8:38
  Speaker 3: we agree with. The White House is going to ask
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: for more funding for health care or something else. Republicans
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: are going to ask for less funding to help feed
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: children or whatever is on brand for them. And then
• 8:48
  Speaker 3: you meet somewhere in the middle. But if it counts
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: as we'll give you non-default if you accept work requirements
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: or something else, that's an unfair and bad negotiation. Then
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: the White House is in a very, very difficult position.
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this isn't a real negotiation because Republicans haven't offered
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: any concessions whatsoever. Their concession is we won't destroy the
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: global economy if you give us everything that we want.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: And we don't know what is happening. And so it
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: could turn out this deal ends up quite bad. It
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: could turn out there is no deal. But I think
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: President Biden and his team have earned enough trust from
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: us to see what they actually come up with. And
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: then we can judge that because we don't know what's
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: happening in the room. Are there things they're asking for?
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: Are there things they're getting? Maybe, maybe not. But I
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: think we should just see what happens.
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about what the outlines of a possible
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: deal might look like based on the reporting that we've
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: seen this week. Republicans are demanding across the board spending cuts,
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: clong back unspent COVID funds, permitting reform, which would speed
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: up both Fossil fuel projects, but also clean energy projects
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: and is actually quite necessary for clean energy projects. And
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: what's become the biggest sticking point, stricter work requirements for
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: people on Medicaid, food assistance and welfare. Democrats in Congress
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: say this is a non-starter. But here's what Biden said
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday and how Kevin McCarthy responded.
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: I'm not going to accept any work requirements that's going
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: to impact on medical health needs of people. I voted
• 10:13
  Speaker 4: years ago for the work requirements that exist. But it's
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: possible there could be a few others, but not anything
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: of any consequence.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: That was someone at Kevin McCarthy's press conference calling Joe
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: Biden a loser for saying he didn't want to accept
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: any work requirements of consequence. What do you make of
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Biden's position here? It sounds like he's not in quite
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the same place as congressional Democrats on work requirements, but
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: he's basically taken Medicaid work requirements off the table, but
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: seems like he maybe sort of might be open to
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: modifying the current work requirements that already exist for both
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: food assistance and welfare, which is known also as transition
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: assistance for needy families or TANF.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: Thank you for getting a TANF mentioned in this pod.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: You know, I wrote a college thesis on TANF.
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: And if you subscribe to the Friends of the Pod program,
• 11:22
  Speaker 3: you can read that paper.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Anyhow, okay.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: I think let's just stipulate there is no evidence that
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: work requirements help people find work. And they generally make
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: it harder for them to access benefits they need. You're
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: going to hear an interview I did with Anastasia Krosorio
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: a little later in this pod, where she explains that
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: the way we should talk about work requirements is to
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: refer to it as benefit theft, because that's really what
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: it is doing. What I think is happening here, there's
• 11:51
  Speaker 3: a lot of speculation around this, and you keep hearing
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: reporters write and Republicans say that in 1996, Joe Biden
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: voted for Bill Clinton's relatively atrocious welfare reform bill, and
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: that that somehow predicts how we see this. I think
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: we should take that off the table. That was nearly
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: 30 years ago. What Joe Biden believed 30 years ago
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: is not what he believes now. This is still the
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: same president who fought very hard for a very expansive
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: program to help the poorest Americans in the American Rescue
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: Plan build back better. We would have one of the
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: most historic programs of all time if Joe Manchin had
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: not sunk it. And what it seems that I'm doing
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: is Biden is looking for deal space here. He is
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: a very seasoned congressional negotiator. And I think McCarthy has
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: probably said, this is a thing I have to have.
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: And Biden is trying to trade something for that that
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: he wants. What that is, I don't know. And the
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: devil is going to be in the details here about
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: what it is. But if there is anything that sounds
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: like work requirements can be labeled as work requirements that
• 12:54
  Speaker 3: Kevin McCarthy can run around with his group of mega
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: asshole friends and say, look at the win we got
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: by hurting poor people, that's going to have a lot
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: of blowback on President Biden from Democrats in Congress and
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: I think progressives and activists around the country.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I wanted to get a little on both the politics
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: and the policy of this and how they sort of intersect.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: And I can talk about the policy. It's not often
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: I get to nerd out on actual policy because I'm
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: usually not that well-versed in a lot of policy, but
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: this one I am. So I think the principle that
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: our taxes shouldn't go towards assistance for able-bodied adults who
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: could work but refuse to is unsurprisingly popular with people.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: So they hold work requirements. 70% of people support work
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: requirements for people on Medicaid, 67% support work requirements for
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: people on food assistance, and 73% for welfare. So that
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: helps you understand that McCarthy thinks he's playing a strong
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: political hand and Biden and the White House are like, oh,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: we're not playing a strong political hand because when people
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: just hear work requirements, they're like, yeah, of course people
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: should work if they're able to work and they are
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: able to find a job instead of just being on
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: government assistance. But the truth is, 93% of Medicaid recipients
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: are already either working, attending school, or have a disability. But,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: you know, Arkansas in 2018, they didn't care about that.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: They decided to pass work requirements for Medicaid anyway. 16,000
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: people who are in poverty lost their health care. And
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: over 90% of those people who lost their health care
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: because of work requirements were working. And the reason that
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: they lost it is because work requirements are really just
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: additional paperwork requirements you need. More documentation. You need to
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: know how to navigate. confusing government websites. And as I
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: said earlier, we already have work requirements for welfare and
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: food assistance. What Republicans want in this deal, what I've read,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: is they want more paperwork for welfare and to raise
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: the age you're required to work for food assistance from
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: 50 to 55. But again, the people who are getting
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: this assistance are either working, working part-time because that's all
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: they can find, they're between jobs, they're caregiving, or they
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: have health issues that prevent them from working the same
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: jobs they did when they were younger. So it's like
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: the issue here is most of the people that this
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: would hurt are either already working or very much want
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: to work. Right now, there's still like a quarter of
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: all people who are eligible for TANF for welfare don't
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: have it because it's too complicated to get. And the
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: incentive since Bill Clinton passed welfare reform for welfare workers
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: are to get people off the benefits. And so they
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: make it more confusing. They make the paperwork difficult. There
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: are people who don't have access to the Internet. They
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: don't have transportation access. And all these things come into
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: play so that it makes it harder for someone to
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: get benefits. Like for us, you go to the DMV
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: and you spend all day there waiting in a long
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: line and then you get to the front and then
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: you don't have the documentation that you're supposed to. It's
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: happened to all of us. Like you go back home
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: and you can't renew your license that day. But imagine
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: if that happened and when you went back home, you
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: couldn't have food for a month or healthcare. Like these
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: are the problems with work requirements. It's not that Joe
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: Biden and the Democrats are against the concept of working
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: or encouraging work. It's that, like Anat probably told you,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: work requirements are just an excuse for Republicans to push
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: working people into poverty. And if it wasn't an excuse
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: for that, they would get rid of these programs because
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: everywhere it's been tried, they haven't worked. They haven't worked.
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: So I just, you know, it's horrible policy, but you
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: can see where Biden's going on this because There are
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: already work requirements, and what they're trying to do is
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: just tighten the screws a little more on the requirements
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: and raise the age on food assistance. So it's relatively small,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: but it's still a stupid policy.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: Because what it comes down to is it's a choice.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: All these things are choices. Budgets are all about choices
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: and priorities. And one option, which is the one that
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: President Biden and Democrats have pushed, is let's ask the
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: wealthy to pay what they owe, the corporations to pay
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: what they owe, but they're not going to do that.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: So what's the alternative? make it harder for poor people
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: to have food and healthcare. That is the choice. And look,
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: I would say for Republicans, they are in it for
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: the kicks. If there was no deficit, they would follow
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: this anyway, because for them, kicking poor people off healthcare
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: is just like the friends they made along the way.
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: It's worth it for itself, right? But in this context,
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: it is because they say they care about the deficit.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: They need savings to say they reduce the deficit or
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: reduce spending. And they won't do it the most obvious
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: ways that would ask their wealthy benefactors to pay a
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: little more, to pay the money they owe.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: It's also such bullshit. Raising the age from 50 to
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: 55 for food assistance, that's going to save you such
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: a tiny amount of money compared to the overall budget.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: It's just bullshit. So what happens if the White House
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: cuts a deal with McCarthy that a bunch of Democrats
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: in Congress refuse to support?
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: I think that's almost certainly going to happen if he
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: cuts a deal with McCarthy.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: And then I guess they pass it with Republican votes?
• 17:58
  Speaker 3: I think it ends up being a mix of both
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: because there's no deal– so here's sort of how the
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: politics lay out. There is no deal that McCarthy will
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: agree on that all the House Democrats will be for
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: or the majority of House Democrats will be for. That's
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: just not possible. The parties are too far apart. And
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: there's no deal that Biden will sign off on that
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: the Democratic Senate will also pass that will appease the
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: Freedom Caucus and others. And so you're in a world
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: where you're going to need like– maybe a hundred Democrats
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: to be for it to get across the finish line.
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: That's what happened in the both and almost every fiscal
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: negotiation Obama had as well as the far right didn't
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: want to do it. The progressives and the center left
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: and the democratic party want to do it. And then
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: the people who were more moderate or had safer seats
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: or others, and it still hated the deal voted for
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: it because it was better than default. And that is
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: likely running. And that is going to be rough political
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: waters for president Biden. Cause he's going to be in
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: this situation. And Obama had this too, where he cannot
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: tout the wins he got because for every time he
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: says it's not that bad, another Republican leaves and it
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: gets that much harder to pass. And so you just
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: have to like eat shit until the U.S. full faith
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: and credit is safe and then try to spin it
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: three days later. And that does not work.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: Well, so then the question goes to the Democrats who
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: were against, you know, Biden making concessions to McCarthy. So
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: what's your idea? Because otherwise we're going to default and
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: they have two different ideas. The House Democrats are moving
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: a discharge petition that would force a vote on a
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: debt ceiling increase, though they'd still need six Republicans to
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: make that happen because Democrats only have 212 votes in
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: the House. And that discharge petition won't be ready until
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: the middle of June, which seems like it could be
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: past the X date if the X date really is
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: June 1st, as Janet Yellen says it is. So that's
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: discharge petition. And some Senate Democrats sent Biden a letter yesterday, Wednesday,
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: urging him to declare the debt ceiling is unconstitutional under
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: the 14th Amendment. Elizabeth Warren and some others, Angus King,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: who's not as progressive and independent from Maine, Fiscal Hawk
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: also said he thinks the debt ceiling is unconstitutional under
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: the 14th Amendment. What are your thoughts on either of
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: these plans working, and we've talked about them before, but
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: working at this stage of the process?
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: I think the– put aside the timing challenge on the
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: discharge position. Let's just say we have enough money to
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: get to July 1st or June 27th or whatever. That
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: only worked if there wasn't a negotiation between Biden and
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: McCarthy because you're not going to find six members who
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: are going to bail in the middle of the negotiations.
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: Maybe it could work if we get to the end
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: and we're.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: Just– That's what I was thinking.
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: Like keep doing it. Keep talking about it. Keep pushing it.
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: It's not going to short circuit this negotiation. This negotiation
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: either can produce a deal to avoid default or it's
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: not and then we're going to be staring over the
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: cliff and this is one option on the table.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if we're staring over the cliff and this is
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: the only and last game in town, then you could
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: imagine– and the negotiations just all fall apart. Then you
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: can imagine– six Republicans who are in Biden districts thinking, okay,
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: it's either default or this discharge petition to avoid default.
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: And there's no other option at this point.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: So that remains a live possibility. But the idea that
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: it was the way it worked, it was a more
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: live possibility in the short term if Biden had stuck
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: with his no negotiation pledge, right? If we were just
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: staring at each other heading towards the cliff, then maybe
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: people would take that off ramp. They're less likely to
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: take it until we're back to the cliff. The 14th
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: Amendment is one of those things that seems great in
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: theory and is very easy to call for if you're
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: not the one who has to make the decision. Being
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: a member of Congress, being a newsletter writer, a podcaster,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: a tweeter, you can say, that sounds like he should
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: do it. 14th Amendment, we'll show them. If you're the
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: person who took the oath of office, who is responsible
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: for the well-being of the entire country, not the politics,
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: not the polls, not the 2024 election, But whether millions
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: of Americans are going to lose their jobs and trillions
• 22:01
  Speaker 3: of dollars in wealth is going to be destroyed overnight,
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: are you really going to take a path where the
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: lawyers basically give you the equivalent of the shrug emoji
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: on whether it's going to work? Like that, given that,
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: like that is, Biden isn't the choice of either. He
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: takes this very risky path that could work, but is
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: high risk and may not work. And if it doesn't work,
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: it would lead to the worst unforced domestic policy error
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: in the history of this country with massive ramifications that
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: could take a decade or more to unwind. How do
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: you make that decision if you're the one who actually
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: make it? Put it in a press release, put it
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: in a dear colleague letter, tweet about it, write about
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: it in your sub stack, talk about it on this podcast.
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: But if you're the person in there to make the decision,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: And you and I were in meetings where some of
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: those things were talked about a decade ago. And it's just,
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: as the president who's responsible for the country, that's a very, very,
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: very hard, if not impossible path to take, in my opinion.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was trying to game it out. I mean,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: say he does that. So best case scenario, it goes
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: through the courts, it's upheld, everything's fine, avoided default, and
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: destroyed the debt ceiling as a tool for hostage taking forever.
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: Which would be amazing. That would be a great outcome.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Which would be amazing. Amazing outcome. Worst case, it goes
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: to the Supreme Court, goes up to the Supreme Court,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: and the very right wing, most extreme right wing court
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: ever says, no, fuck you, Joe Biden. And it's unconstitutional.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: And then the global economy plunges into crisis. Now, the
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: question there is, do people blame the Supreme Court because
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: the Supreme Court's the one that plunged the economy into crisis?
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: And those are all the headlines? Or do people say
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: that Biden shouldn't have taken it so far? And I
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: don't know the answer to that, but it's still a
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: risk for the Biden administration.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: I don't even care. And I don't even think Biden
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: even cares or should care about who gets blamed there.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: That's not the point when you're the president.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: The point is that already, yeah.
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: And even if in the short term, everyone is like,
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: this is Clarence Thomas's fault. And I also fucking hate
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: Mitch McConnell for stealing those seats. And Kevin McCarthy's a doofus.
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: At the end of the day, if all you cared
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: about was the politics, it still means Biden's going to
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: run for re-election in a historic recession. it's not gonna
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: be better by November of 2024 if this happens. And
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: so that like, that's how it ends. And so it just,
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: it seems very, I mean, it's just, it is easy
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: to play fantasy football when you're not the person who
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: has to make the decision, who has to bear the
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: responsibility for the actual pain that happens if that plan
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: does not work. And so you might end up making,
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: having to take concessions. You do not like to get deal.
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: You do not like take on a ton of shit
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: that you do not want or need. politically to avoid
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: that fate. That's sort of why Biden's in that room
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: right now.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: I'm still, I will forever, unless someone explains it to
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: me otherwise, wonder why they didn't try to test out
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: the constitutionality of the debt ceiling before the X date.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: So then they knew either way. I mean, there is
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: one case already where government employees are suing Janet Yellen
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: for complying with the debt ceiling, arguing that a breach
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: of the debt ceiling would force the congressionally authorized payments
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: he would make, which is also unconstitutional, which they argue
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: is unconstitutional. And so I just wonder, like, I wish
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: that case had gone through earlier, had been at the
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: court earlier. But there's a lot of questions on, like,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: who has standing to sue over the debt ceiling? Because
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: ignoring the debt ceiling doesn't actually injure anyone, which is
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: why the debt ceiling is so fucking stupid. But it
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: doesn't hurt anyone. If you got rid of the debt ceiling, right?
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: It's just a stupid fucking thing that Congress passed. So
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: I just I wish that we had had some like some,
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: you know, legal judgment on this before we hit the
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: X date. That would have been nice.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: Well, look, if we want to allocate blame here, the
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: blame falls squarely on the shoulders of two people, Joe
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, because as we know, and I
• 25:46
  Speaker 3: think Ron Klain may have told you an interview did
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: with him. The White House wanted to at the in
• 25:51
  Speaker 3: the lame duck. push the debt ceiling out beyond this
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: presidency so that we would not be in this situation.
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: But you needed 50 Democrats to do that. We did
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: not have 50 Democrats to do that because you're doing
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: it with the previous Congress, not the current one, where
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: we only had 50 votes. And so this is where
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: we are. I think there's going to be a lot
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: of Monday morning quarterbacking, a lot of second guessing hindsight
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: about how we got here, whatever it happens, whether we
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: default or a deal. Some of it will be completely legitimate.
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: Some of it will certainly not be, but this has
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: to play itself out before we really know whether this
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: was the right approach, the wrong approach, whatever it is.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: I just think some of the solutions are not as
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: simple as they may seem from afar.
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: All right, happier news. There were elections on Tuesday that
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: led to some notable results in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky.
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: In Florida, Democrat Donna Deegan won a huge upset in
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: the Jacksonville mayor's race, beating the DeSantis-endorsed Daniel Davis in
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: a city that's been trending Republican. Also, the largest city
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: in Florida. Did you know that? I didn't know that.
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: I thought Miami was a bigger city than Jacksonville. Jacksonville
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: is a pretty big city.
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: I'm kind of in a position now where if I
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: say I knew that, I sound like an asshole. So no,
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: I didn't know it either.
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: Stupid me. In Pennsylvania, Democrats won a state legislative special
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: election that prevented the House from flipping Republican. And in
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: the Philadelphia mayor's race, Sherelle Parker won the Democratic primary,
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: which means she will almost certainly become the city's first
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: black woman to serve as mayor. And in Kentucky, Democratic
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Governor Andy Beshear will face Attorney General Daniel Cameron, endorsed
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: by Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell, who beat former Trump
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: official Kelly Craft, a candidate Ron DeSantis endorsed right before
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: the polls closed, who went on to lose by 30 points.
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Cameron tweaked Tiny D during his victory speech. Let's listen.
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: The Trump culture of winning is alive and well in Kentucky.
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: This is, of course, mocking Ron DeSantis's We can't have
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: a culture of losing oblique shot at Trump that he
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: trotted out over the weekend. What on earth was DeSantis thinking?
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: Endorsing someone right before the polls closed who went on
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: to lose by 30 points? I don't understand.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: This is truly one of the stupidest things I've ever
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: seen anyone do. He should fire his team and then
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: shoot himself directly into the sun for just rank political incompetence.
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: So how did this happen, right? Here's the question. Because
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: he obviously knew Kraft was going to lose. But why
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: did he endorse Kraft when it made no difference? Voters
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: wouldn't even know about it when they voted, which is
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: a real statement on how little political influence he has
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: relative to Trump in his own mind. Two reasons. One,
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: Kelly and Joe Kraft– Joe Kraft is Kelly's husband– are
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: billionaire coal barons. And Joe Kraft is a donor to
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: DeSantis and likely a donor to a DeSantis super PAC.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: when and if he runs. That's reason one. Reason two
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: is that Kraft's strategist is Jeff Rowe, who is this
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Republican wunderkind who helped elect Youngkin and it was a
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: big coup that the DeSantis world got Jeff Rowe to
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: come work for them. And so he clearly used his
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: connections to DeSantis to deliver this endorsement even at the
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: last minute. I'm sure he promised Kelly Kraft when he
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: took the job that he would eventually get DeSantis. DeSantis
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: finally gave him the last minute He should fire Jeff
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: Rowe for this because it's complete grift where he abused
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: his relationship with DeSantis to get this endorsement. And so
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: the whole thing speaks very poorly of the reportedly very
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: soon to launch DeSantis presidential campaign. They don't know what
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: they're doing. They got a bunch of people in it
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: just trying to use DeSantis for influence and money and
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: building their client roster.
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Ron DeSantis is announcing next week, according to the
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal today. What do you think about his
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: culture of losing argument?
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: I think he's taken this thing about Ron DeSantis' culture
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: warrior a little too literally. Because if you want to
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: run as a winner, you have to stop losing. And
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: he has done nothing but lose since he won re-election
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: in 2022. And he keeps going around saying the implication
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: of the culture of losing is that Donald Trump is
• 29:58
  Speaker 3: a shitty candidate. And he may be right about that,
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: but it's hard to say that Trump's a shitty candidate
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: when that shitty candidate is kicking Ron DeSantis' ass in
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: all the polls. So it's not really– he's going to–
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: something has to change for that to work, and right
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: now it's not working at all.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he has to make a direct argument
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: that Donald Trump suffered two historic midterm losses, one in
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: which he wasn't even on the ticket but made himself
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: a central character in the race, and lost in 2020.
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: which he, you know, still can't seem to say. I
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: think eventually he'll get there or at the very least,
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: I mean, again, at the very least, even if he
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: doesn't want to piss off all the election deniers in
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: the party, which is a lot of the party now,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: he could say, like, whether or not you think Donald
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: Trump won that election, he should have won that election
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: and it should never have been that close. He could
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: say that, just doesn't want to say it.
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: It's your best argument.
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: He is trying to be more likable, though. Here's a
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: clip from him last week. How about that laugh, Dan?
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, what a weirdo.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: What a weirdo. Taking that likable on the top of
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: his debate prep a little too far.
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, not to use a dated political reference, which
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: is sort of the brand of the Thursday podcast, but
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: it's a very Howard Dean moment from 2004.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: And this is an audio format, but the video of
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: it is even, he looks even weirder in the video.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: is what's important to know about that.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: You just see Elijah cringe in the background as you
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: call this an audio format.
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: For those of you who are listening in the audio format.
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: I would just say that this is such a video
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: format that before we got started, Elijah critiqued the choice
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: of blinds in this room.
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Well, I think they're fine.
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So, I mean, Andy did as well, but Elijah
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: did not like them. And I will be reporting him
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: directly to Howley, who is not going to be happy
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: about that critique.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: Yikes. Back to Kentucky. As red as it gets, but
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Doesn't it seem like Andy Beshear might be the favorite
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: in the governor's race? I think the most popular governor
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: in the country?
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: I think favorite's doing a lot of work there. I
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: think he has a very, very real shot of getting
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: reelected in what is likely to be a very, very
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: close race in a very Republican state. And the fact
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: that you can say that sentence speaks to his political
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: brand and strength, because a Democrat should be getting crushed
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: in an off year in a state that Trump won
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: by 26 points. But he... He's done a great job
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: as governor. He has remained quite popular in a very
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: Republican state, but it's going to be a very tough race.
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And that's why everyone needs to help out. Go
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: to votesaveamerica.com. We're going to be helping out with the
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Kentucky governor's race and all the 2023 off-year elections. That's
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: one of the bigger ones. Were you surprised by the
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: outcome of the Philly mayor's race, considering how much attention
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: progressive star Helen Gimm got?
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: No, I knew it was going to happen, and I
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: knew Jacksonville was the largest city in Florida.
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: Wow!
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: No, I was surprised. Because if you followed all the
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: news and the Twitter commentary, not the local news, but
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: sort of the national political conversation about this race, it
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: was all about Helen Gim. I think this is once
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: again a reminder that the Democratic base, the real base,
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: where the votes are delivered, which for the state of
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Pennsylvania is in Philly, is much more ideologically complex and
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: in many cases moderate on some issues than than the
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: Twitter cable podcast conversation would have you believe. And we've
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: seen that come to bear in the New York mayor's
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: race a couple of years ago. We saw it in
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: how the Chicago mayor's race played out, even if the
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: progressive won in the end. And it happened here as well.
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: And this is a big deal. This is the first
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: black woman mayor in the history of the city of Philadelphia.
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: We should be celebrating that. She is as exciting candidate
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: as could be.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: I was digging into some of the numbers on it.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Helen Gimm's highest share of the vote came from people
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: making over $ 100, 000. And in terms of where she did well,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: she performed best by University of Pennsylvania near that campus.
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Parker got the highest share of her vote from people
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: making under $ 50, 000. So, you know, some people thought that
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: Helen Gimm much would be like Brandon Johnson in Chicago,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: a progressive. who would beat a more moderate candidate to
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: win the mayor's race. The difference with Brandon Johnson is
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: Brandon Johnson built a coalition that included college-educated whites, wealthier liberals,
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: but also black voters. And in Philadelphia, Helen Gim just
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: had the highly educated, wealthier white liberals and didn't combine
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: it with the black vote. And that's the difference right there.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: There is one other fundamental difference that I think is
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: just– because it's always too easy to draw a big
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: conclusion on these things– is that in the Chicago race
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: had a one-on-one runoff between Vallis and Johnson. And here,
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: this is a multi-candidate race with no runoff. So it
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: put particular value in a consolidation of the black vote
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: in a city with a large working class black population.
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: Yes, that is very true. Any other takeaways from Election
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: Day this week?
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: Democrats have transitioned into a party that has a very
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: high rate of turnout in off-year elections. We have become
• 35:17
  Speaker 3: a high turnout party. You see this in special elections.
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: You saw it in the midterms. You see it here.
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: Ten years ago, we were a presidential election year party.
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: We now have a larger percentage of our base that
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: is turning out in non-presidential election years. It's giving us
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: real strength down ballot in some of these elections like
• 35:35
  Speaker 3: the Pennsylvania special election. the Jacksonville mayor's race. And it
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: is ultimately, you have to do, there's a lot of
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: work to do to expand our coalition, to have a
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: true governing coalition geographically across the country. But sustainable progressive
• 35:48
  Speaker 3: political power is built at the state level. And if
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: you want to do that, you have to turn out
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: in these non-presidential years. And that is happening. And I
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: think it's a real positive sign.
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: I will say in Jacksonville, the electorate in this race
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: that Donna Deegan won was more Republican than last time
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: a Republican won the mayor's race. So how did she
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: win then? She won because she got enough Republicans to
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: vote for her. There was enough crossover support. She was
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: able to persuade Republicans to vote for her because she's
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: a more moderate candidate and the Republican she framed as
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: an extreme right-wing candidate. And so again, we've said it
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: a million times, like turnout incredibly important and also persuasion
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: is incredibly important and you can't be given up on
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: convincing Republican or lean Republican or independent voters to vote
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: for you because both things are key to win a race.
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: Speaking of elections, the most definitive account of what happened
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: in the 2022 midterms is finally out. The data firm
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: Catalyst maintains the longest running voter file outside the two
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: political parties, which makes their insights much more accurate than
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: exit polls. Few of the major findings about 2022 are one.
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: You just mentioned this. Turnout was higher than any midterm
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: election other than 2018, and Democrats won the majority of
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: heavily contested races. Two, Gen Z and millennial voters combined
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: actually exceeded their 2018 record-breaking turnout by 6%, and 65%
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: of them supported Democratic candidates. Three, election-denying MAGA candidates did
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: one to four points worse than other Republicans. And four,
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: The 2020 Biden coalition basically stayed the same, with two
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: notable exceptions. Democratic support among white, non-college-educated women rose 4%,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: and turnout among Black voters fell and contested races. What's
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: your take on the data, and did anything else stand
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: out to you?
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: The data paints a very, I think, positive and encouraging
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: picture for 2024. There's obviously a lot of work to
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: do there. Even midterms, as high as the turnout was
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: in this midterm, it's still There are still a whole
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: ton of people who are going to sign the presidential
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: election who were not in this election. But the strength
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: of the Democratic coalition stays strong. The second piece that
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: I think is really notable and important is the centrality
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: of continuing to brand correctly the Republicans as extremists, and
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: particularly extremists on issues like abortion. Because if you can
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: take those gains you have made with white women who
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: didn't go to college, with the surge in voter registration
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: among women that they found in this study after the
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: Roe v. Wade decision, and keep pushing it forward as
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: around the country, whether it's in Florida or North Carolina
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: or elsewhere, that Republicans are continuing to push incredibly extreme, cruel,
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: and dangerous positions on abortion, it is a boost to
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: what we are seeing, which is a anti-MAGA majority in
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: the country, but particularly in the battleground states that will
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: decide the presidential election and decide to the Senate in 2022.
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: And what is, I think, most useful about this study
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: is that in the 2022 election, there was almost one-for-one
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: overlap between where the races were for governor and Senate
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: and the ones that will decide the presidency. Oftentimes, it's
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: about Maine or these other states that are not in
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: play in the presidential, but here it is. We're talking
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, right? That's it.
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: That's the battleground right there.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: For me, it was a reminder that campaigning really works.
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: It sounds sort of obvious, but the difference between contested
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: areas and uncontested areas, whether those uncontested areas were blue
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: or red, Democrats performed as you would imagine they perform
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: in a midterm election where they're the party in power,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: meaning there was basically a red wave in those areas
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: where there were not seriously contested races. In contested races
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: where we had candidates and campaigns and we were on
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: TV and we were knocking on doors, it really worked,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: even in the toughest contested areas. So I think that
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: was important. I do think that, you know, black turnout
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: and black support are issues, especially among younger black voters.
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: That's where we saw the biggest drop off, though. Notably,
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: it was less of an issue in the two races
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: in Georgia, both the governor's race and the Senate race
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: and North Carolina, the Senate race where we lost. when
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: black candidates were running at the top of the ticket,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: we didn't see as much drop off or in both
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: turnout and support in those races. So that's something for
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: Democrats to certainly think about. And also cannot give up
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: on white non-college educated voters. They made up a third
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: of the Democrats winning coalition in 2022. That's more than
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: it was in 2020 when Biden won some voters back,
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: white working class voters back from when Hillary ran in 2016.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: And We saw in 2020, 2022, support for Democrats rose
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: among non-college educated white women, which, you know, Celinda Lake
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: always tells us is like a key swing group. And
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: there's plenty of reasons for that. I think abortion is
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: a huge one. I also think sort of like economic
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: reasons as well. But, you know, this idea that we
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: should that these are all Trump voters and we should
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: give up on them. It's just not it hasn't borne
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: out in all of the data we've seen in every
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: election since 2016. just hasn't borne out. So yeah, those
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: were all my takes on this. Do you think that
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: the 2022 results and the data from Catalyst can tell
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: us anything about where the electorate's going to be heading
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: into 2024?
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: I would think of it less as telling us where
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: the electorate's going to be than giving us a list
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: of things we should work on in preparation for 2024.
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: One you mentioned, which was some concerning numbers with Black
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: voters in places other than Georgia and North Carolina. Two,
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: the Latino vote stayed basically equivalent to where it was
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: in 2020, but that is still a nine-point drop in
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: support levels for Democrats from where it was in 2016.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: If we want to have any margin for error and
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: put some other states like Texas in play, we have
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: to start getting that number. Stopping it from falling is
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: step one. Getting it back up to where it was
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: is step two. Point three is the We won this
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: election because of large turnout from Gen Z and millennials.
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: And as you would point out, millennials are not that
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: young anymore, but this is the core of the Democratic Party.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: We have to make sure we have that turnout going
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: forward and thinking about how are we communicating with those
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: people in a media environment where our traditional tools, other
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: than very popular progressive podcasts, do not reach that group.
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: How are we going to navigate that with an 80-year-old president?
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: That cannot fall by the wayside and should be top
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: of mind. And as we know, it is top of
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: mind of the Biden folks as they're thinking about it.
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: But those would be the top three things on my
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: punch list in thinking about how we replicate the 2022
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: success in 2024.
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly some good news in the data, but plenty
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: to keep us all up at night. When we come back,
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: Dan will talk to Anat Shankar-Osorio about economic messaging and
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: the debt ceiling.
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: Joining us now is one of the Democratic Party's best
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: minds on political messaging and an all-around friend of the pot,
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: Anat Shankarosario. Anat, it's great to have you back.
• 43:22
  Speaker 5: Thank you so much. It's wonderful to be here.
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: All right. We are talking here on a Thursday. We
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: are like two or so weeks away from quote unquote
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: X date when we could face our first ever default
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: in U.S. history. You've done a lot of thinking about
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: how Democrats should be talking about this battle over default.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: What's your advice?
• 43:43
  Speaker 5: Well, first, I'm thrilled to hear you say the word
• 43:46
  Speaker 5: default because let me knock off a bunch of don'ts
• 43:49
  Speaker 5: before we get to some do's. Number one, don't call
• 43:52
  Speaker 5: it the debt ceiling. I realize we can't control what
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: the media says, but calling it the debt ceiling just
• 43:59
  Speaker 5: reinforces to voters this idea of profligate spending and the
• 44:02
  Speaker 5: fact that we're always in debt. Don't try the hypocrisy argument.
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: We love it. Makes us feel good. Never, ever works.
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: By that, I mean they voted to raise the debt
• 44:13
  Speaker 5: ceiling a million times before and they did it under
• 44:16
  Speaker 5: Trump and they've done it before. Actually, what we find
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: when we test that is it backlashes hard. Again, it's
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: that reminder that we are or that feeling that we
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: are perennially irresponsible and we just keep putting ourselves into
• 44:29
  Speaker 5: this situation. On the do side, which is obviously the
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: more important side, definitely talking about it as default, definitely
• 44:37
  Speaker 5: making clear that there are villains here. So for example,
• 44:42
  Speaker 5: if MAGA Republicans block our government from paying America's bills,
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: millions of families won't be able to pay ours. So
• 44:49
  Speaker 5: really putting into stark relief, what is this abstract seeming thing?
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: also saying, for example, MAGA Republicans are threatening to default
• 44:59
  Speaker 5: on America, that phrase default on America, unless they can
• 45:02
  Speaker 5: take away what Americans need in order to be able
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: to explain what I also call the your money or
• 45:09
  Speaker 5: your life offer, quote unquote offer, that McCarthy is putting forward.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: What is always challenging, and I've been through a couple
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: of these from my time in the administration, is you
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: have This question of default and the mechanisms by which
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: you afford default. And then there is this separate thing
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: that is also taking place in this context around spending
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: and spending cuts and what the Republicans want and what
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: Democrats don't want. And I know they're all sort of
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: mixed together in how it's covered. But in the context
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: of spending cuts, there's lots of polling that shows that
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: abstractly people think government spends too much, deficits are a concern.
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: How do you think Democrats should talk about that and
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: what they are fighting against in terms of spending? Is
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: it specific programs? What does your research show?
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah, great question. It is a very complicated tale to tell.
• 46:05
  Speaker 5: I think the first line of answer, which you already know,
• 46:08
  Speaker 5: is don't get into the details. People don't need to
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: know the details and they cannot sort of process and absorb.
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: It also hinders our ability to just do a compact
• 46:18
  Speaker 5: kind of message if we try to go through it.
• 46:21
  Speaker 5: But that said, to directly answer your question, the number
• 46:24
  Speaker 5: one rule is we don't need to repeat what they say, right?
• 46:28
  Speaker 5: So McCarthy, for example, introduces the notion of work, quote,
• 46:33
  Speaker 5: work requirements and how we need to have work requirements.
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: And our instinctive response is to say, these work requirements
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: are terrible. These work requirements are going to harm people.
• 46:43
  Speaker 5: These work requirements, X, Y, Z. And there I go
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: repeating what? Work requirements, which is something that broadly speaking, many,
• 46:53
  Speaker 5: many Americans actually favor because they have been taught to
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: worship at the altar of work will set you free.
• 47:00
  Speaker 5: Where have I seen that phrase before? So instead we
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: can call them, for example, benefits theft. Basically McCarthy wants
• 47:09
  Speaker 5: to take away benefits, the care, public education, veterans services
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: that Americans need and that we support so that he
• 47:21
  Speaker 5: can hand kickbacks, hand dollars to his donors. We always
• 47:26
  Speaker 5: want to get in that piece of what I call
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: ascribing motivation. So making it clear the why behind what
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: they're doing, not just the what.
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: I think if a White House staffer or a member
• 47:40
  Speaker 3: of Congress or someone was listening to this, they would say,
• 47:43
  Speaker 3: that's great. I totally agree. In my tweet about this,
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: I can write benefit theft or whatever else, but the
• 47:49
  Speaker 3: press is just going to write work requirements, and that
• 47:52
  Speaker 3: is the primary vehicle for which Most voters are still
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: getting to the extent that they are following this and
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: polls show they're not following it that closely. That could
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: change as we get closer to default. But if they're
• 48:02
  Speaker 3: getting information about it is being framed in ways in
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: which we have no control. Do you have thoughts on
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: how to push that back or how to navigate the
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: challenges of the media environment we're in?
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, this is the however many million, maybe
• 48:16
  Speaker 5: billion dollar question and probably, you know, part of the
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: ethos and the idea behind Crooked Media, if I can
• 48:22
  Speaker 5: sort of blow sunshine at you.
• 48:25
  Speaker 3: That, you know.
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: The media is sort of both sides in us off
• 48:32
  Speaker 5: of finance off of a financial cliff and into complete
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: economic shutdown, because they are more wedded to reporting on
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: point of process and horse race rather than actual stakes,
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: you know, doesn't make any sense, but is what happens.
• 48:47
  Speaker 5: So a couple of points of advice. Number one, we
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: don't have control over what the opposition says. We don't
• 48:54
  Speaker 5: have control over what the mainstream media says. The only
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: thing we have control over is what we say. And
• 48:59
  Speaker 5: so I would still reinforce and deliberately repeat because repetition
• 49:04
  Speaker 5: is important. And so I'm being repetitious in order to
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: repeat that notion that still we have to stick with
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: our thing. And I think that the widespread usage of
• 49:14
  Speaker 5: default and defaulting on America is already a sign that
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: we can push back on on the phrase that is
• 49:21
  Speaker 5: sort of closest to top of mind, which is debt ceiling.
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: And I'm not saying the media has changed, but that
• 49:26
  Speaker 5: is a far more widespread thing. So how do we
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: make the work requirements, for example, default no longer be
• 49:34
  Speaker 5: the default? So the media says to you as a
• 49:37
  Speaker 5: member of Congress or, you know, as someone who is
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: being quoted, hey, what do you think about these work requirements?
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: You know, my advice for what to say back is.
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: I think most of us in America and certainly my
• 49:50
  Speaker 5: voters and my constituents that I talk to across my
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: district believe that most of us are just here because
• 49:57
  Speaker 5: we want to care for our families and leave things
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: off for generations to come. But today, McCarthy and his
• 50:04
  Speaker 5: MAGA Republicans want to steal benefits from Americans who work
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: day in and day out, whether that's caring for our
• 50:13
  Speaker 5: kids or whether that's punching in and out at a
• 50:16
  Speaker 5: nine to five. He wants to be able to hand
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: kickbacks to his donors while he screws the rest of us. Basically,
• 50:23
  Speaker 5: just coming back again to America. why he's doing this,
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: rather than belaboring whether work requirements are good, work requirements
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: are bad, they're obnoxious, they're not obnoxious, just not taking
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: the bait.
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: In your phraseology, there is the kickbacks to his donors.
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: Is that specifically in reference to tax cuts to the
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: rich and corporations?
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: Absolutely.
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 50:44
  Speaker 3: So I mean, that is one way in which to
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: do this is there's a, you know, everyone wants to
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: get our, you know, you would know the right phrase.
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: But once we have fallen, and Biden has put himself
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: in this position on the idea that we have to
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: deal with deficits over time. It's a question of how,
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: because I mean, the public does agree with that, even
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: if they, and they have always, and, you know, they
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: just want to cut foreign aid and waste foreign abuse
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: and keep everything else while also expending, you know, spending
• 51:12
  Speaker 3: more money in the military, whatever the public wants. But
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: you get into, now you're in this world of how
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: do you do it, right? And our way is includes
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: asking the wealthy and corporations to pay more. They will
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: refuse to do that. Because they refuse to do that,
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: they have to do X, Y, and Z, which can
• 51:27
  Speaker 3: be cut Medicare and Social Security, benefit theft, in your phrase,
• 51:34
  Speaker 3: or something like that. Once we're in that world, is
• 51:35
  Speaker 3: that the way to do it? About two different approaches?
• 51:41
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, you may argue with me, and it's
• 51:45
  Speaker 5: a credible claim to make that what I'm about to
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: say is so fantastical, it leaves the realm of possibility.
• 51:51
  Speaker 5: I personally feel very strongly that we shouldn't be worshiping
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: at the altar of we also want to tackle the deficit.
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: We also want to deal with the debt because, first
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: of all, if you believe in modern monetary theory, I
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: think that that's pretty silly. And from a language perspective,
• 52:08
  Speaker 5: not a policy perspective or econ perspective, If we tell
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: the public that what we need you to focus on,
• 52:16
  Speaker 5: what we need you to think about, what is most
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: important here is who is going to deliver to you
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: the greatest cuts to the deficit, then that is advantage
• 52:25
  Speaker 5: team cut, cut, cut. And regardless of what is actually
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: factually true and the way that we yell and scream
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: because it is true that they're the ones that actually
• 52:35
  Speaker 5: pile onto the deficit with their tax cuts and their
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: various kinds of spending, The public perception is what the
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: public perception is, as you have rightly laid out and know.
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: So when we get into that trap of, you know,
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: we also want to cut the deficit, and these are
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: the ways that we're going to cut the deficit, I
• 52:52
  Speaker 5: just think we're handing them the advantage. And where we
• 52:55
  Speaker 5: need to keep the discourse is, and, you know, I'm
• 52:59
  Speaker 5: going to bring up a word that you and I
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: are both very, very into, which is freedoms. We need
• 53:05
  Speaker 5: to talk about how we need to make the... freedom
• 53:09
  Speaker 5: case in the economic realm. So this idea, as ever,
• 53:13
  Speaker 5: that we value our freedoms, but a wealthy few have
• 53:16
  Speaker 5: always tried calling the shots, rigging the rules to avoid
• 53:19
  Speaker 5: paying what they owe. That, by the way, pay what
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: they owe, rather than ask them to contribute their fair share,
• 53:25
  Speaker 5: much stronger language. Pay what they owe rightly implies that
• 53:30
  Speaker 5: they've been skating by and skirting what is due, as
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: opposed to now a new asking them to chip into
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: the pot. So the idea with that, that the wealthy
• 53:41
  Speaker 5: few have always tried calling the shots and now MAGA
• 53:44
  Speaker 5: Republicans want to default on America and push us into
• 53:47
  Speaker 5: economic showdown unless we let them take away our health care,
• 53:51
  Speaker 5: our school funding, jobs from families. That is where we
• 53:56
  Speaker 5: need the argument to be, that basically this is same
• 53:59
  Speaker 5: as it ever was perennially MAGA Republicans jumping to do
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: the bidding of billionaires and trying to put our families
• 54:08
  Speaker 5: into peril. and making the call be protect our families
• 54:12
  Speaker 5: from the MAGA default.
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: And one last question for you. The Republican primary is
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: heating up. We're seeing sort of a race to the
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: bottom between Trump and DeSantis and all these candidates to
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: be the most outrageous, most MAGA extreme Republican possible. We
• 54:27
  Speaker 3: have state legislators and other Republican politicians doing just absolutely
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: unheard of offensive things on book bans and attack on
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: trans kids and attack on women's freedom and all of
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: the above. For Democrats trying to highlight Republican extremism, it
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: is a target-rich opportunity. What is your advice on how
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: we do that without simply being a response mode? Is
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: there a way that you would recommend to build a
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: coherent narrative about who the Republicans are to fit all
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: of these things into?
• 54:53
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm so glad that you're asking. One of the
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: things that we see over and over again, and it
• 55:00
  Speaker 5: was really a hallmark of the Trump years, is that
• 55:04
  Speaker 5: when we go after folks for or the daily assault,
• 55:09
  Speaker 5: and at 10 a.m. it's this, and at 10.20 it's that,
• 55:11
  Speaker 5: and at 10.30, and so on and so forth, we
• 55:14
  Speaker 5: actually lose the big picture. And what voters take away
• 55:18
  Speaker 5: from that is, first of all, they can't remember what's
• 55:20
  Speaker 5: going on. And second of all, it really feels to
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: them like, oh, that's just politics as usual. That is
• 55:27
  Speaker 5: where Team Blue says crappy things about Team Red and
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: vice versa, and sort of the slings and arrows don't land.
• 55:34
  Speaker 5: So what we have to do, and it's tough, is
• 55:37
  Speaker 5: discipline ourselves to actually not talk about every single one
• 55:42
  Speaker 5: of these things as a separate one-off, and can you
• 55:45
  Speaker 5: believe they did this, and can you believe they said that,
• 55:48
  Speaker 5: and can you believe, and can you believe, and can
• 55:49
  Speaker 5: you believe, but rather, as you just articulated, come up
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: with one overarching charge. And the ones that we are
• 55:57
  Speaker 5: seeing still pop, because we are hot in the in
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: preparation for the slew of Supreme Court badness that is
• 56:06
  Speaker 5: coming our way. We're just in the field looking, looking,
• 56:09
  Speaker 5: looking at what is this overarching story. The ones are
• 56:12
  Speaker 5: popping to the top, unsurprisingly, a continuation of what we
• 56:16
  Speaker 5: saw work in 22, which is they want to take
• 56:19
  Speaker 5: away your freedoms from the freedom to love who you love,
• 56:23
  Speaker 5: to read what you want to read, for your kids
• 56:25
  Speaker 5: to learn the truth of our past, your freedom to
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: decide whether and when to have kids, Your freedom to
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: be with your partner, your freedom to parent how you
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: see fit and raise your kids according to your own values,
• 56:39
  Speaker 5: which of course is a charge that they make against us.
• 56:41
  Speaker 5: So again, that loss aversion, weaving in the economics, they
• 56:45
  Speaker 5: want to take away your freedom to earn a good living.
• 56:47
  Speaker 5: They want to take away your freedom to retire in
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: dignity and so on. So it doesn't just apply on
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: the social side. Another way of doing it, another kind
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: of overarching storyline that's really popping is is this idea
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: of control. So they want to control us. They want
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: to decide our futures for us. They want to take
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: us backward to a time where they call the shots
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: and they can hand back whatever they want to their
• 57:14
  Speaker 5: wealthy donors while telling us who we can be, what
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: we can do, where we can go and what we
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: can say. So taking away our freedoms, trying to control
• 57:23
  Speaker 5: us and decide our futures for us. Those are two
• 57:26
  Speaker 5: kind of, ways to tell the full story and fit
• 57:29
  Speaker 5: the particular, for instances.
• 57:31
  Speaker 4: In it.
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: Anat, thank you so much. Please tell our listeners where
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: they can follow you and get more information on your
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: messaging advice.
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I appreciate it. So I tweet often good messaging. Sometimes,
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: as I like to say, tweet as I say, not
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: as I do. Sometimes I'm just firing off because I'm pissed.
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: at Anat Osorios, like the name of the dinosaur, since
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: my last name is Osorio. And then I also have
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: a podcast, each episode of which traces a win, a
• 58:07
  Speaker 5: happy thing, something we won somewhere in the world and
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: how we did it. And that's called Words to Win By.
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: Anat, thank you so much. And I'm sure we will
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: talk to you again soon.
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: Thank you again for having me.
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: All right, we're back and with us in studio in
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Los Angeles, Elijah Cohn. He finally left your little room
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: in North Carolina where you spend all your time.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in that room or a plane on my
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: way out here. Those are the two places.
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: We haven't played a take game in a while, so
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: this is great.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd love to tell you why. I'd love to
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: tell the audience why, if that's okay.
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: Please do.
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: I've been working on the subscription service. I've been working
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: on Friends of the Pod.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: There you are.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: And I'm very biased, but I think it's great. I
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: would encourage you to go join the Discord. I think
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: it's the platonic ideal of social media, especially in Elon's Twitter.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: I will just say. I spent some time in the Discord.
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: Fantastic people. Great community. It's not just because they're friends
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: of the pod and have nice things to say. The
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: criticisms are well-founded, well-thought-out.
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: Frequent.
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: Frequent.
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but like it's much different than Twitter. It's like
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: night and day from the annoying people on Twitter.
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: Absolutely.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: And then we got this show we're making. We're recording
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: another episode right after this. Terminally online. I won't say
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: it's a good show, but we have a lot of
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: fun making it. And I'm going to post some clips
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: on social media. So go check those out if you
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: want a taste for what it is and go sign up.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: I would say it's a great show.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a great show.
• 59:47
  Speaker 3: Today's going to be great.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Dan's doing it today.
• 59:50
  Speaker 3: And I am coming in hot today.
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: We're recording Terminally Online today. You probably won't hear it until,
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know when it comes out.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: Saturday.
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: Saturday. Oh, okay.
• 59:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: It's right up against Love It or Leave It. Don't
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: tell him.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: Oh, Jesus. You really can't.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you really can't.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: He won't hear it here because he doesn't listen to
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: this podcast. No.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: Dan, don't write about it in messages. Uh, crooked.com slash friends.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: John and Dan, please say crooked.com slash friends.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: Crooked.com slash friends.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: Crooked.com slash friends. Great.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: Let's play the game. Welcome back to take, take, don't
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: tell me. So I'm going to present you all with
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: five news stories, and then you'll have to rank them
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: from best to worst with the worst take being number one.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 5: Okay.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: Here's the catch. You don't know which takes are coming.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: So be careful to not fill that number one slot
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: too early. Are you both ready?
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: I'm so ready. Great.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: Let's do it. Dan, are you ready? I didn't let
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: you say.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: Well, if I said no, what would happen?
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: I'd wait.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 3: I don't know. So yes, I'm ready as I'm going
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: to be.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: So let's start with a piece from Politico. It's about
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: Vivek Ramaswamy. Do you know what this one is?
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: You said Politico and I was triggered. Yes.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: So Vivek Ramaswamy is running for the 2024 Republican nomination
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: for president. If you aren't familiar, his background is that
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: he's rich and he hates wokeness. That's it. This piece
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: is titled.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: All right. I'm interested.
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: Nine ways. Nine ways Vivek Ramaswamy can beat Donald Trump.
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: According to Andrew Yang. Dan, this is like a piece
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: called how to win a game seven. According to Doc Rivers.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 3: Do you think that was that necessary? Was it necessary?
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: I didn't say anything.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 1: I don't think most of our audience will get that,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: but whatever.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 3: Well, I would at least, I will just at least,
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: I will submit, I congratulate the Celtics fans for winning
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: yet again. They will always be better than the Sixers.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: But just say that on Sunday, I watched game seven
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: and I.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: I saw you, I saw you tweeting. You seem so upset.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: I just, I just stay back.
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 3: I have watched the Sixers just absolutely shit the bed
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: in the most epic way possible. And then later that day,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: I ripped my large toenail off by accident, not on purpose.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 3: And I would say that that was the toenail was
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: the second most painful thing that happened that day. You
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: also don't realize how often your children stand, step on
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: your toes until you rip your toenail off.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: Oh my God.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: Anyhow, get back to your show. Get back to your
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: show with your unnecessary day, unnecessary, but fair dig on
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 3: Doc Rivers and the Sixers.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: Sorry to kick you out or down. So this piece
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: from Andrew Yang is in listicle format. So there are
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: some big picture pieces, pieces of advice followed by paragraphs.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: I'd like to, For the quote, just share you a
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: couple of those big picture pieces of advice. Number one,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: be prepared for the debates. Number five, lean into memes.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: No.
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: Number six, talk more about AI and UBI.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: Oh, my God.
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: And last, certainly not least, number nine, stay human.
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: Okay. I mean, this is real. You've done a great
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: job here. Politico. Vivek Ramaswamy, Andrew Yang, and the most
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: banal fucking advice I've ever heard. It's going to be
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: hard to keep this out of one.
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: That's why I put it first.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 3: Do John and I have to agree? These take games
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: are all sort of a mishmash in my mind, or
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 3: do we each pick our own?
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: Well, there's compromise. I mean, you can give Kevin McCarthy
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: leaks that you feel good about the number one position,
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: but the other side can leak other things. I mean,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: you don't want to put it at number one.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: I feel like we should do it at number two.
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 3: I think we just got to give ourselves some room.
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: I was thinking the same thing. I feel like number
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: two is safe. Or the safest option.
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: Cool. So at number two, we have Vivek can win
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: according to Andrew Yang. Hey, loser. With all due respect.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: I could hear the respect.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: Next take is from the New York Times. It's from
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: this week.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: Cancel your subscription. Sorry.
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: It's titled Legalizing Marijuana is a Big Mistake. This piece
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: argues that it's for context. It's from Ross Douthat. I
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: never know.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: You don't know.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: You don't have to. You don't have to.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: It's better that way. Yeah.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: The piece argues that marijuana legislation or legalization is presenting
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 1: challenges and therefore we should make it illegal again. The
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: framing of this piece, I think, is what's worth quoting.
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: Here we go. There have been moral arguments about the
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: excesses of the drug war and medical arguments about the
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: potential benefits of pot, but the vibe of the whole
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: debate has pitted the chill against the uptight, the cools
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: against the squares, and the relaxed future against the principal
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: skinners of the past.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's right.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: He seems like all of those things on the other
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: side of the debate.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: That's true.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: As do the people who don't want to legalize weed.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: So I don't know. I think I might put that
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: in the five.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's probably right. I would say that
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: Ross Douthat has a series of takes that put him
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 3: in the principal Skinner school of things, on a whole
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 3: list of things. You can Google them if you would like.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to mention them on this podcast, but
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 3: they're not super cool.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he had a horrifically bad one a couple weeks
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: ago that I am struggling to remember. All I remember
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: is a lot of people complaining about it, which tells
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: you everything you need to know about Twitter.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: Okay, cool. New York Times at number five, weed is
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: only legal because it's cool. That's not really what he said.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: I'm going to frame it that way for shorthand. Let's
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: go to the Wall Street Journal. Here's a piece, I
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: love this genre, titled, If Biden Bows Out, How About
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: Michelle Obama? How about it? Here's a quote. According to
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: a Zogby Analytics poll released last year, it found that
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: if Mr. Biden were to bow out in 2024, the
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: favorite to replace him is the only Democrat with broad
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: national appeal, Michelle Obama. I should say this piece, I
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: don't remember how you feel about all of these authors,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: but this piece is by Douglas Schoen and Andrew Stein.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: Oh, wow. Doug Schoen.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: He's like a Mark Penn partner, or was at some point.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: I don't know if he still is.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: Former Clinton guy.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah. What do you think, Dan?
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 3: So we have used slot two and slot five. Is
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: that where we are?
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 3: I think this is probably a four. You're kind of
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: mailing it in. Doug's shown every cycle where it's a
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal op-ed calling on someone new to run
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: or someone to drop out. He and Mark Penn, I
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 3: think together, or at least Doug's shown was involved in
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: an op-ed calling on Barack Obama to not run for
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: re-election so Hillary Clinton could back around this time in
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 3: 2011 or so. I think he did a similar, he
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: called for someone else to drop out recently. Like this
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: is his thing. He's kind of mailing it in. It's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: very possible he's using chat GPT to do this. So
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: I say four.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I mean, the chances of Michelle Obama
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: doing that are zero. If it was possible to be
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: less than zero, I would go with less than zero.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: But if you looked at not just a Zogby analytics poll,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: but every kind of poll, she is probably the most
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: popular figure in the party, maybe even more so than
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: her husband.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: So no chance she's running. They said in the piece,
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: like she's not interested in running at all.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: No, because she sort of despises politics. That's a big
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: problem with her getting in the race.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: Probably a source of her popularity.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: Cool. Well, we have at number two, Politico, Vivek can
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: win according to Andrew Yang. At four, Wall Street Journal.
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: What about Michelle Obama? And at five, New York Times.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Weed is only legal because it's cool. Uh, this is
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: one from the Washington post. The next one. Uh, it's
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: a piece titled the Durham report is a damning indictment
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: of the FBI and the media. Now I have an
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: explanation here, but do you, do one of you guys
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: want to explain what the Durham report is?
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: It's an, go ahead, John. I was going to make
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 3: a Duke basketball joke, but it's not even, I'm tapped
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: out on basketball content for this pod.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: I have decided not to dig in to the latest
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: round of stories about the Durham report. All I will
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: say and all I know is that Durham, special counsel
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: appointed by Donald Trump to dig into the supposedly unfair
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: investigations into Donald Trump, found after many years and a
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: lot of investigation, no crimes or I think brought three indictments.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: Two were found not guilty and one pled guilty immediately.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: So they didn't go. And they were all for like
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: minor things. And basically the conclusion was, The FBI seemed
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 2: to rush into this investigation and there was a few
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: things that they did wrong, but it didn't knock down
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: the basis for the investigation in any real way. So
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 2: it's bullshit. And somehow Republicans are still holding it up
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 2: as like proof that Donald Trump was unfairly uh you
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: know investigated it just seems like fucking crazy.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah i'd written here in my own words it's a
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: partisan hack job commissioned to counter the muller report was
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: my yeah that seems not fair good cool well here's
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: a wild wild quote from the piece which is from
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: uh take favorite mark teason um The report shows that
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: people have lost trust in the media, rightfully so. Why
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: did Trump supporters storm the Capitol? Because they believe Trump's
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: false claims that the election was being stolen. And why
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: did they believe him? If the media lied to them
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: about Trump's collusion with Russia, why should they trust the
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: reports that Trump's election claims were false?
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 2: Oh, my God. Mark Thiessen. What do you think, Dan?
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: It feels like it's a number three, but I'm worried
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: about what the last one's going to be and if
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: it can beat the Andrew Yang thing.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: I think we took a bet. We took a gamble
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 3: that there would be one better than this. This is
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 3: not better than the Andrew Yang boring advice column.
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: And if it's not, maybe we should just go with
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: what we truly believe, which is if it's not better,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: it should be three.
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: I think it should be three. We just got to
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 3: roll the dice and hope that we get a good one.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: And if we don't, This is a fake game with
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: no stakes. So what really has gone wrong here?
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: I am feeling the stakes.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: What are the stakes?
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: Doc Rivers was feeling the stakes the other day.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: Wow.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 3: I just cannot believe I'm being trolled by a Charlotte
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: Hornet fan right now.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: I'm a NBA fan. So to recap, the number one
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: slot is open. Number two is Vivek can win. Number
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: three is Jan 6 is the FBI slash media's fault. Uh,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: number four is what about Michelle Obama? Number five is
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: weed is only legal because it's cool. The good thing
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: about number one is that it's unconventional. It's what you
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: make of it because it's not really a take. It's
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: a tweet.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: Oh.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: From Mike Pence. It's simply a photo of Mike Pence
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: inside a Dunkin' Donuts in New Hampshire. It's a very
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: awkward photo. John's holding up his Dunkin'. So here's the
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: text from the tweet that goes along with the photo.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: I heard New Hampshire in America run on at Dunkin' Donuts.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: Had to check it out for myself, American flag emoji.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: The take is the implicit idea that this is what
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: Pence needs to do to contend in 2024 and that
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: this was good by his staff. Where do you guys
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: want to rank it?
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: Also just the idea that he just discovered. Hey, I
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: heard that America runs on Dunkin'. Yeah, have you heard
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: of this new coffee shop that's sprouting up all over
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: the country? It's called Dunkin' Donuts.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, at Dunkin' Donuts, tagging the brand.
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: And not even, did he use the donut emoji or
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 3: just American flag?
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: Just the American flag emoji.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I would not have made it number one.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: I would have made the Andrew Yang one number one.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 2: But I probably would have made this three.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: This could be two. I think this could be two.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: It could be two. It's pretty ridiculous.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: When you really dig into this weird human being-like thing
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: that is Mike Pence with no personality and no connection to...
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: culture or anything thinking he has discovered a secret local
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: New Hampshire donut place.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: Called called called Dunkin Donuts what is this.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: And there's no G look at that guys these New
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: Hampshireites are crazy.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: Also did you hear America runs on this snappy new slogan.
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah it's like when Michael Scott goes to New York
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: and he's like I got my local pizza joint here
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: and it's Sparrow laughing Is this what Mike Pence needs
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: to win?
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: No, Mike Pence needs his voters not to want to
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: hang him. And I don't think that this is moving
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: them in that direction.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 3: Do they sell?
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: I think after seeing this tweet, more people are going
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: to want to hang Mike Pence.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: Like what?
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: Like who?
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: Starbucks fans?
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: Howard Schultz?
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: People who do social media?
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: The people who run Pete's?
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: Yep, yep.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 2: Cool.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: Well, the final rankings are Mike Pence saying Mike Pence
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: runs on Duncan Politico, Vivek can win according to Andrew Yang,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Washington Post, January 6th is the media's fault, Wall Street Journal,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: what about Michelle Obama, and New York Times. Weed is
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: only legal because it's cool. How do we feel overall
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: about these rankings?
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: I feel like you did a great job giving us
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: Andrew Yang early because it threw us off our game.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: And that is one of the And I got to
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 2: go back now and read the whole piece just to
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: get mad because that's fun to get mad.
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: I could have read all nine.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: I was going to say, but just the ones you
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 2: chose are some of the worst takes we've ever heard
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: on this program.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: Lean into memes.
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: I think, John, we like teams like Philadelphia 76ers who
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 3: lose big games like we just lost a big game.
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 3: It's important to go back and reevaluate what went wrong
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: and we should go with our gut. Our gut was
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: that was one and we overthought it and we should
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 3: have known that the CTO over here would have put
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: the first number one take first to fuck with our
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 3: heads and we just didn't do it.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 2: We didn't do it. So that's on us. That's on us.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 2: We'll get them next year.
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: God, I owned you guys. That was intentional too.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: We should have known.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: We should have known.
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 2: You figured it out. You figured it out. Elijah, thank
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: you for letting us lose at Take Take Don't Tell Me.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: Thank you also to Anat Shankarasuri for joining us. Everyone
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: have a great weekend and we'll talk to you next week.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: Bye everyone.
• 1:14:23
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• 1:14:25
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• 1:14:30
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• 1:14:34
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• 1:14:38
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