Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - Trump Keeps Playing The Hits While The Iran War Tanks The Economy

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Super Tuesdays - Trump Keeps Playing The Hits While The Iran War Tanks The Economy · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: 35 days until the 2026 midterm elections. And do you
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: know where President Trump is? He's chucked out. I'm Chris Eliza.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Super Tuesdays. You said 35 days?
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: That just feels super short. It feels close, right? I
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: totally agree. It's not yet October. What do you mean?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I know. Jesus. It's because the election is November 3rd.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: So basically it's like a month once we get in October.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: It's the second earliest it can possibly be.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Exactly right. This is Super Tuesdays. Like, comment, subscribe, all
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: those good things. iHeart, Apple, Spotify, YouTube. So Chuck, I
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: wanted to start here because I was struck by this.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: So over the weekend, Trump was in Tennessee at the,
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: in Knoxville at the Tennessee-Texas game. He then flew to
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Illinois for the President's Cup golf.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: They announced late last week that he's going to kick
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: off his campaign tour, such as it is, in Oklahoma
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: on Thursday and Mobile, Alabama on Friday. Those don't strike
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: me as like the most competitive races out there. What
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: is this that he is not welcome? Is this he
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: only wants to go where he's going to be roundly cheered?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: What do you make of that? I was struck by that.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this feels like people around him trying to make
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: make him feel better about himself.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: You know, look, and I dealt with this on my
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Monday podcast a little bit. And this is a habit
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: of all politicians when they are in the barrel, right?
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: And he's in the barrel right now, however you want
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: to describe it, which is they revert to things that
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: they believe once worked. And so then they just go
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: back and try to play the hits in one form
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: or another. So let's talk about all three of these,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: all four.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Of these things. Yeah, appearances.
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: Showing up at sporting events have made him feel good.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: He needs something that makes him feel good.
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: So he chose, I kind of think the optics of rejecting-
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: an exit ramp in Iran, literally a temporary one, one
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: that would have been a booster shot to the stock market,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: would have dropped the price of oil probably by 10
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: bucks overnight. And he walks away from it, literally a
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: moment that every single Republican in a tough state or
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: district is begging for, just end this goddamn Iran war
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: any way you can.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: They're literally saying it publicly now.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: And he has carte blanche to basically say, capitulate to
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: to whatever. And he didn't take it. I hope I
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: hope he knows what he's doing on this one.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: There's this I it felt like not only did he
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: not take it, then he goes to football games, literally
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: the country. His voters are suffering. More people are suffering
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: with this horrible economy. And that doesn't work for people
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: that don't have money. And lo and behold, he's at
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: a football game.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Football and golf, Chuck. A golf tournament.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Real man of the people type of situation. And then
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I think about the first big rally he had ever. Yes.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Was actually in Mobile, Alabama.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: A hundred percent. 30,000 plus people flew the plane. It
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: was his first.
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Time he felt like something felt good.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I think this 2015 probably.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: And Oklahoma was the site of his first rally during COVID.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: The infamous one, I believe that killed Herman Cain.
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: Herman Cain. The point being is that it is.
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: So I, all of these things are memories in his
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: head of things that worked in the past. So you
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: might as well do them and you do them in
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: a place where, you know, if you're, if you're you're
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: trying to make the guy who's in a bubble feel
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: better about himself because he's got self-esteem issues, you would
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: Try Mobile, Alabama.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Sure. People are going to cheer him. Exactly.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Because he's going– if he– look, I guess he's going
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: to try– there's probably a few safe spaces in Florida
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: you can go, although I'd be a little nervous if
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: I were Byron Donalds bringing him there.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I agree. I thought that was interesting. By the way,
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: he's announced he's going to Florida. We don't know exactly
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: where yet. He's announced.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: We haven't seen any locations set aside yet.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: That's right. I'll be honest. I'll wait. I'll believe it
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: when I see it. I'm not– Maybe it happens.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: And by the way, if you're Donald, you actually do
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: need Trump in the panhandle.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Yes. Where there is a there is clearly a race issue.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I was going to say a black Republican needs Donald
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: Trump in the.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: So there is a rationale to bring Trump in that
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: will be risky. But it's just but he does have
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: a mega problem with with with with with white working
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: class voters.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: In the panhandle.
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: And then there's Iowa, where I saw they announced that
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: they were going to go to Iowa. You're like, okay,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: Ashley Hinson couldn't be found on a milk carton when J.D.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Vance showed up.
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: I can't imagine you're going to see anybody other than
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: the gubernatorial candidate show up, Zach Lane, because he's so
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: far behind.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, he'll take it. He'll take
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: anything he can get.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: So I look at all of this, and it does
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: feel as if Plenty of campaigns are back channeling to
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: the White House and saying, please don't come to our state.
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: Please don't rally in our state. And if you do
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: need if you think you need him, you've got a
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: unique thing.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Look.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: You know, Alabama, I mean, Tommy Tupperville and his weird,
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: furry conspiracy about airline pilots. He's just not a very
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: bright individual. He doesn't really know what he's doing. I
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: you know, the the possibility of him screwing up that
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: governor's race, I I think is in the 50 50 column.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: I don't not saying it's a 50 50 chance, but
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: him screwing it up.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: I think he's already made it marginally competitive.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's going to be much closer that
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: first of all, we haven't had a lot of good polling.
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a two or three
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: point race. I really do. And if Democrats if Doug
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: Jones wins it, it's a one point race.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: But, you know, he's not going to carry Huntsville.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Tommy Tupperware. He's just not.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Huntsville, home of NASA and some of these others. He's
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: just not going to do it. And I have some
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: questions about he's going to underperform in Mobile. That doesn't
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: mean he's going to– look, I'm not going to sit
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: here and say Tommy Tupperware. No, he'll win Mobile.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: He's going to underperform. That's the thing. I think he's
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: already made it competitive. Mm-hmm. I want to run through.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: I was jotting down as you were talking. I was
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: jotting down the main Senate, the main races that we
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: talk about in terms of the Senate. I want you
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: to give me an honest assessment. If we give the
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Republican candidate and the Republican strategist team in each of
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: these states, we give them true serum. With the understanding
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: that Trump is always a mixed blessing, right? It might
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: be 60% good, 40% bad, 51% bad, 49% good. Would
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: you want Donald Trump? Okay, we got 35 days left.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Would you want, would you appear at a rally with
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump? If you were any of the following, let's start.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Ken Paxton in Texas. Does Ken Paxton want Donald Trump
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: and would he appear in a rally with him, not
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: have a previously scheduled event? Here's the, yeah. He would.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: I think he would. I think so, too. And I
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: think he's.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: You know, when you're when you're you're appear to be
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: behind like he is, you know, he's not winning swing voters.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: He's only winning MAGA diehard. So, yeah, I think if
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: you're Ken Paxton. you might bring them to West Texas.
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: And you might- And would you, would by that same logic,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: I'm just checking them off, would you, if you were,
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: and this looks like they're giving up on both of
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: these people, but if you're Mike Whatley in North Carolina
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: or Mike Collins in Georgia, do you bring them in?
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: Because what the hell?
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Oof.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard, right? It's so bad.
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't, I think he is toxic in a real
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: battleground state.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: In like a real swing state.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Okay, so I'm going to put- But Paxton is in
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: such bad shape. But Watley's not that guy the way
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: Paxton is. Look, and Watley's– I mean he's– I don't know, man.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: My only argument is.
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: If you're going to lose– You have down ballot issues
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: you have to worry about.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Fair. You could lose down ballot.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: OK.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So I have North Carolina and Georgia as no's. Texas
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: as a yes. Now let me just go through a couple.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: If you're Mike Rounds in South Dakota, do you think
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump can do a rally with him? You might.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: I think I'm going to put that as a check
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: because I think he would.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: I think he might, except the problem he's got is
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: it's Trump's actual policies on tariffs in Canada that are
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: the biggest problem for rounds.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So this is the- I mean, it's why it's a
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: hard thing to- Right.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: It's harder because even among some base constituencies, particularly, I probably-
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: Wouldn't want him anywhere near me in Kansas, South Dakota, Nebraska,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: or Iowa. But if I'm Zach Lane, I have nothing
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: to lose. I think I've got a problem already. So
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: maybe I'd try it. I could see him rolling the dice.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: Ashley Henson has told you. She's already said.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: There's no way in hell she's going to be in
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: a rally. She can't get in her van. She ain't
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: getting in her van. No way. And in fact, I
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: think the film from Monday where she praises the Trump
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: economy because he announces this massive plant that's going in
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Iowa will be used against her. Even if anyway. OK,
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: a couple.
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: If I'm if I'm hence, I'd rather have him announcing
• 9:55
  Speaker 2: new plants in Iowa without coming.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'd take that. Right. Like, please don't.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Come. Don't come to Iowa. And but the problem is
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: Trump's got good, you know, the numbers. When you look
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: at a state like Iowa with this massive registration advantage.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Right. Just like Florida does over the Democrat Republicans have over.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Mm hmm. It's.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: I can see a numbers person making the case that
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: you need Trump to show up to Iowa.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: It's a base election. You have to have them.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: I happen to think that he's uniquely screwed up the
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: base in Iowa with these tariffs and the cattle. Meat imports.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Meat imports and the.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: Tariffs and the war in Iran, diesel prices. I just
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: think he's uniquely screwed up. Even though- Ideologically, it makes
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: sense if you're rounds or if you're Iowa Republicans or
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Nebraska Republicans, but the specific issues are actually in the base.
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: You know, I mean, I'd be I think he's better off.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: I think you're Andy Biggs should ask him.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: Like, yeah, Arizona. I sure see that. You're probably going
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: to lose. Come to the base. He might get.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: More help than it does for a Mike rounds in
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: South Dakota.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: And I'm assuming. No, no, no. I think that makes
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: sense because it's this specific issue said it's why we
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: have been focused for months on the farm belt. Rounds
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: is vulnerable.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: Because of Trump's policies and that he's not pushed back
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: hard enough.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: Right. And it's not just rounds.
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: It's the why all of these Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Midwestern
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: states that look potentially vulnerable are due to Trump policy.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: So it it it.
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: It isn't probably as helpful as it should be to
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: bring him in with the base.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Because there are base voters who normally would be excited
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: by a Trump visit that are down on Trump. And
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: you just remind them of those things. Right.
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: And he's– by the way, you're not getting the best
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: version of Trump, the campaigner, either, right? He's kind of tired.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: He's old.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: He's cranky. You throw all that in there. You get
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: these weird cult ads that he's running. I don't think
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: you get the best version of Trump either, right? So it's–
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's really hard. I, you know, it's funny.
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: I'm back to just maybe it's just Ken Paxton. Maybe
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: he's like the only guy that can afford to do this.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I think it's a I think it's a question mark.
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: And again, and the Donald race issue, which I think
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: he needs Trump's help with.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Sure. And the panhandle. Like I I mean, look, we
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: kind of have some evidence of this. Trump went to
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: North Carolina and did a rally. And what did he say? Man,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is a real shithole, basically. I mean, he
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: basically said the state's a hellhole. Whatley is like. Thanks.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming that Ohio and Maine would be absolutely out
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: of the question. John, I mean, Susan Collins is not
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: appearing with Donald Trump. If Donald Trump goes anywhere in
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: New England, Susan Collins. No, no. But Ohio. Yeah. I mean, look,
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: I think it's off the board. I can't imagine how
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: that would benefit Houston.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: I can't either. And I look at both races. Right.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: You look at the gubernatorial race, you know, and that's
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: the look. I think Ramaswamy is just a The problem
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: with with the Republican ticket is him. Right. And it
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: because it connects it closer to Trump.
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: And it connects it both ideologically to Trump, but also
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: all the parts of Trump you don't like. Ramaswamy kind
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: of represents rich guy, big money, all that stuff, you know,
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: sort of, you know, is he fully a constitutionalist?
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: All those things with with the Elon Musk thing.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: So but.
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like is any you know, how credible
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: is it if you pretend you don't want anything to
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: do with Trump either?
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: Right. So I don't know what the I just it
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: is remarkable. I mean, look, I'll give you one. Darlene Graham.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: I think I have South Carolina on my list. I
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: think she needs him. I think he would go there
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: and she will go there.
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: I think he has to go there. And that would
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: be and I'll give you one more. Julia Letlow. She's
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: another one who's a little under, you know, she's not
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: been spending much money. There is this, you know, there's
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: a high anti-Republican floor popping up in a lot of
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: these places where I do think, you know, whether you're
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: the Dem nominee for Senate in Louisiana, you're going to
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: be like 40 something. You're the Dem nominee for the U.S.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Senate.
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: Angie Nixon in Florida, you're going to be at 45, 46.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: Question is, is there, do you have a, is there
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: room for you to go.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Higher or not?
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Trump, campaigning with let low and is cheaper than maybe
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: trying to run a bunch of attack ads and give
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: name ID to the guy that you don't want to
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: give him name ID.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: So I, I think Mississippi, the same thing. So behind Smith,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I don't, I'm just look, the fact that we're down
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: to states that Donald Trump won by like 25 points,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: like he might only be able.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: To help to prevent the tsunami.
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: Mm hmm.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: On the edges. Yeah.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: But look, it's this is the equivalent of sending Joe
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Biden to Delaware and Vermont in 2022.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah. OK. He wants to go somewhere.
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: You got to send them somewhere. You know, you're like, OK, fine.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: You know, go to Delaware, go to Vermont. Maybe we'll
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: find a Jersey race. You know, maybe we can find
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: a Massachusetts race, that type of that's the situation Republicans
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: are in with Trump. Though I can carve out a
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: few exceptions, right, that make it look like he's in
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: a relevant place. Panhandle of Florida for Donalds, Andy Biggs, anything, right,
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: to just close that gap a little bit in Arizona.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: You know, you can- Idaho, I mean- Right, and the Southern-
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: You know.
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Idaho I would risk it. I
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: might not want to remind voters. Did you say you
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: wouldn't risk it? I wouldn't risk it. I am a dad.
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: We get to make those jokes. Too rich for my
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: blood on that one. But I, you know, so I
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: guess I create- We're like two of five people who
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: think that's funny, but that's 40%.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: So I guess with our buddy, Mr. Blair and Mr.
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: LaCivita and Mr. Fabrizio, if I were to come up
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: with the safest places where it looks like you're relevant-
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: It would be a Paxton, West Texas, something or other,
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: Panhandle Donald's, Letlow in Louisiana, Darlene Graham, and I guess
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: I do- Cindy Hyde-Smith. Yeah, she's kind of, she probably
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: needs it. Yeah, why not?
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: And that's where I'd keep them busy. I keep them
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: out of the Midwest.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: I think it just reminds people of all the terrible
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: trade deals he's done that screwed everything up. It's a
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: little safer in the South because the culture stuff still
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: matters slightly more.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree. I just, I went through and I
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: was like, man, like there's a reason he's again, just
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to be clear, there's a reason that Donald Trump is
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: kicking off in Oklahoma and Alabama. Part of it is
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: to Chuck's point. He, He wants to go places that
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: remind him of the good times. You know, he wants
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: to be guaranteed to be cheered. But also, like, it's
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: hard to go places where you're not invited. You know,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess you could just show up, but
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: it's hard. Chuck, I want to talk about Texas because
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: I tweeted something last week and the last week, which,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: you know, is always the kiss of death. And I said,
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: it's possible that Republicans could lose the Senate because Donald
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Trump endorsed Ken Paxton, not John Cornyn. And of course,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: conservatives are like, oh, it doesn't matter. It's one seat
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: and Paxton's going to win and Cornyn is a rhino.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: And that wasn't my point at all. I should have
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: made it clear. My point was there's a finite amount
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: of money. A lot of that money is already going
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: to Texas. And that means money can't go to other places.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: So I just looked this up before we got on. Hmm.
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: The Senate Leadership Fund, which is the big Senate Republican
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: super PAC, is in for, as of now, $ 118 million
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: in advertising in Texas. I remember not long ago, you
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: and I doing a pod of like them playing Republican,
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: Senate Republicans playing chicken with the White House about who
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: was going to spend the money to save Ken Paxton,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: John Kennedy, John Thune, all these people saying, well, you know,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's a big Paxton guy. Is it possible we
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: look back and think, my God, they're going to spend
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: $ 150 million and if Paxton loses, that could have gone
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: to more in Michigan, more in New Hampshire, more in Iowa,
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: more in fill in the blank state.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: I think it's... I think it's a mistake that they're
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: sending this money to Texas.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: I understand the risk of not doing it, which is
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: why they're doing it. The risk is if Paxton wins anyway, right?
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: Would be one thing and Thune's out of a job.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: The risk is it's the only seat that swings it
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: is Texas and you didn't invest and that.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Could be a thing.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: So- I think Mitch McConnell wouldn't have swerved. Right.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell might have stuck to his guns. John Thune
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: is not.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: He did it with Peter Thiel on Blake Masters. Yeah.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, he just said no. And he made Peter
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: Thiel do it. Did it with Vance. And then he
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: eventually came in on Vance because Ohio can matter that much. And,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: you know, you could justify it. I think Mitch would
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: have stuck to his guns. I'd love to give Stephen
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: Law truth serum on that one. Look, I say that
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: everything that makes Thune the guy who I think we
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: all thought was going to maybe be a future presidential opponent.
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: In 2004, when young Obama and young Thune came into
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: the Senate, you're like, man, can't wait for those two
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: guys to run for president.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Against each other.
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: That'll be pretty good for the country. They just both
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: seem like decent humans, decent guys, that sort of thing.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I agree.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: I just think Thune's just not cutthroat, right? That's just
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: not who he is. He's going to want to, all right,
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: let's figure it out.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: He's a Midwestern slash Plains nice.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: And I say that in that I could picture myself
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: behaving very similarly, you know, in his situation. So I'm not,
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: I don't want to be, I don't want to sound
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: like I'm going, hey, you're weak.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Oh, no, I get it.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: I can just tell you McConnell was probably more ruthless
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: in this situation. And I think he wouldn't have swerved.
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: Thune swerved, and there's plenty of reasons to swerve. There's
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: plenty of risk here that could have been blow up
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: the party. McConnell did swerve on impeachment. He knew he
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: was probably making a mistake, but he thought, I got
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: to keep the party together. I think Thune is rationalizing
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: the Texas decision by Yeah, not doing it could blow
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: the party up. I just don't think that's true. I
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: think Paxton has successfully– has totally disqualified himself. I really
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: believe it. I think it's over. I think this is
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: Bruce Willis and Sixth Sense. I'd be yanking out of this.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: I think the fact that Abbott's in trouble for other reasons,
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: mind you. I mean, by the way, most interesting campaign
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: in the country is Gina Hinojosa's.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Fascinating. Going to be close. Fascinating.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: Well, and the January 6th ad that she's got out
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: is just fascinating with that. So I think Paxton is–
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: I think this is wasted money. I think they're going
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: to regret this.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I just– if I'm John Sununu in New Hampshire or
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Michelle Tafoya in Minnesota or even Ashley Hinson, I'd be like,
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: what the hell?
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, I saw– There's a lot of that, right?
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: Mike Rogers– You could even argue Ohio. They're in for
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: a lot, but you could always be in for a
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: little bit more.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: You could always be in for more. I saw a
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: stat from Ad Impact, which, by the way, is doing
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: great work and is like a must follow at this
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: time of year. Paxton has spent less than $ 1 million
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: on advertising in the general election.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: That's why I would pull the rug out from this
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: guy if I was stunning. And this guy doesn't care.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: This guy's not working hard.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: No, sorry. Screw him. He's going to be a terrible senator,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: a terrible senator. He's a terrible. All the Republicans know it.
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, what do you do?
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: And now you're just pissing away one hundred and fifty
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: million dollars on a. I'm frankly a low character individual.
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: What are you doing in a state that you should
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: win by five, even in a bad environment? There is.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: But the Paxton behavior, the campaign that clown is running
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: to raise any money does not is not worthy of
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: help or support from the NRSC.
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it is. And I here's the thing.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: I know they all know it. Of course they do.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: I know you know it, Steven. Rob Chesmer is somewhere nodding.
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: They all get it. I know it. I wouldn't give that.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: I think this is an absolute colossal waste of money
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: that they're doing. And I still think there's a chance
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: in the next 10 days they pull the plug.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: So that would be very, now they're already in, like
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: have already run about 60 million.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: The only reason not to pull the plug and what
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: you would do is you would do a quiet plug pull,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: which is you'd never say it. You just start moving
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: some money around.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: And you deny it. Maybe you send Trump. right when
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: you're pulling something. The reason not to publicly make a
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: big stink about it is that you could demoralize the
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: base and then drag the entire team down.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Lose the AG race. Correct.
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: So I understand why you, like, there's a rationale to
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: never say it. But man, this is just a colossal
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: waste of money to salvage somebody who probably is unsalvageable.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: The only other thing I can think of, Chuck, as
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: a way of justification is The symbolic import of Texas
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: in the Republican Party. Like either Texas or Florida is
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: the home of the modern donor base.
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: The two biggest donor groups in the Republican Party live
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: in either Texas or Florida.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: It's hard to walk away to it because I would
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: assume tens of millions of dollars have been donated to
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Senate Republicans through Texas people. Well, here would be my argument.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: How come you haven't given any of that money to PACs?
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: I know. Sorry.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, if they won't give the money to Paxton,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: what are you doing? That's the reason not to fund
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: and support this candidacy is Paxton's inability to convince donors
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: to give him money. And if he can't do it,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: doesn't that tell you something?
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Of course.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: I always say to people, fundraising. You got a permission
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: slip from donors. They're already telling you they won't support
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: this guy.
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: People hate fundraising, but I actually think it's, in some ways,
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: it is a good testament of, does someone think you
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: are worth investing in? Now, that's not why everybody gives,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: but it's not detached, to your point. It's not detached from...
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: Can you make a convincing argument? I don't even think
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Paxton's trying with donors. I mean, to be honest. He
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like he is. In that kind of Senate
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: race to raise as little money as he's raising, you
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: or I could raise that amount of money. I mean.
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: He reminds me of one.
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: Of the assistant coaches in Waterboy.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I know. That's all I'm gonna say. I'll leave it
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: at that. Just leave it there.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: If you don't know, look it up. Play the visual.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, to me, that's who Ken Paxton is.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: So we are, golly, his speech at the Dallas convention,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: I had not seen it and I watched it and
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: I was like, we're talking about triage, which I do
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: think Republicans are in triage mode, particularly in the Senate.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: One stat that jumped out at me, Republican groups are
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: in for $ 3. 1 million in advertising in Georgia between now
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: and the election, at least right now, and $ 3. 7 million
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: in North Carolina, which is less money than they are
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: in for Alaska, which is way less expensive. Tim Scott
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: leaves Georgia and North Carolina off his list of places
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: they want to win in a closed-door meeting. I'm assuming
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: that they're out of there by October 1st. Aren't they already?
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, they effectively are. I mean, all money is out.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: That's all. Okay. Maybe they leave a little so you
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: can say they're still advertising or something. It is.
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: Look, it's a lot easier to walk from both states
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: for two different reasons. Number one, they're really– There isn't
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of down ballot to worry about inside North Carolina.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: That's right, because their state elections are the other two even.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: The governor's race will be in 2028.
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: This probably does cost the Republicans a House seat in
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: North Carolina, right? There's that one that they tried to gerrymander.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: But they probably don't. The Don Davis seat. And then
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: in Georgia, the Rick Jackson seat. money in the gubernatorial
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: race is the cover that I think Republicans, Senate Republicans
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: have to say, hey, you know what? Rick Jackson's going
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: to fund the Get Out the Vote effort, and we're
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: going to help him a little bit, and yada, yada, yada.
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: So I think it's a pretty easy decision to walk
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: from both.
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: Do they... Okay, so let's just go, I just want
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: to go through some of these races. Let's say they've
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: basically already walked away from North Carolina and Georgia. It
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: is impossible for them to walk away from Maine, correct? Oh, yeah,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: you wouldn't. I just incumbent senator. It's just like really hard.
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: The politics of it.
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: It's hard to walk away from an incumbent senator.
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: You know, they did it once with Ron Johnson and it.
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Didn't go well. And he won. So I don't think you.
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: Will, you know.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: And he's never forgiven them.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: And, you know, is Susan Collins capable of pulling rabbits
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: out of her hat? I think we know the answer
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: is yes.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: So, of course, she wouldn't walk. And same logic in Ohio.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: You're just in. There is a path.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: You know, somebody finally wrote the story that I wrote
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: a year ago, which is the complicating aspect of the
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: shared Brown candidacy against John Husted is that Brown could
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: be viewed as the incumbent candidate.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Because he's better known. Now, Husted's trying that. Now, the
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: problem is, I don't know if people believe, you know,
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: believe that somehow he's right. This is Trump's economy. So
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: it's like it blunts it. But, you know, I do
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: think Sherrod Brown is both the best candidate Democrats could
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: get and. also flawed because he's been there forever.
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: Right. He needs an environment. He needs an environment, this
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: anti-Republican to win. Otherwise it would just be a judgment on, Hey,
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: this guy's been around and been running for things forever.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: And that's a bad, yeah. Um, they won't, I don't
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: think we'll walk away from Alaska. It's cheap and it's
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: an incumbent Senator. Same thing. Yeah. Texas, I think is
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: the one to keep an eye on Iowa. No way
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: they're in there. Uh, I, I think Texas is the one–
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. Because the cost savings would be so vast.
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: Here's why you would do it if you walked from
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: Texas is if you feel like Marshall is just in
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: free fall.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: If you yeah marshall well ricketts will save himself in
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: theory i think financially.
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: I think ricketts can do that and i i do
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: think there's a hard.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: But yes cindy hyde smith darling graham if you start
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: to have a you know this sort of where you
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: see that issue it.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Just starts going like this it starts going you know
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: and south dakota's not expensive but you know Yeah. I mean,
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: that would be the trigger, a sort of Marshall collapse
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: in particular.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Where it looks like the bottom is falling out
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: even more and he's not going to be able to
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: ride to the rescue. I want to talk about two
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: things that could happen post-election. So in the Senate, John
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: Fetterman is at the Texas Trib Fest. Major Garrett's interviewing him.
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: Some guy asked from the audience, like, why don't you
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: just become an independent? And Fetterman, in either a slip
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: because he was just talking or a Freudian slip or
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: dryer in conclusion, says, well, I'm a lifelong Republican. Now,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: Major immediately corrects him and says, oh, you mean Democrat?
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: And Fetterman says, Democrat. He then though, that got all
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: the attention over the weekend. But I will say, he
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: walked back with Major, a couple weeks ago when he
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: did the thing at the convention where he introduced Dave
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: McCormick at the Republican National Convention, he did the intro.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: There was all the speculation, oh, he's gonna switch parties.
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: And he was like, I will be the 51st vote
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: for Democrats. Well, in that interview with Major, he said,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: we'll see what happens if I'm the 51st. You've interviewed
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: him a bunch. Is he serious about this, playing coy,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: or doesn't know what the hell he's doing, and it's
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: somewhere in between the two of those? Man, I am
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: not crawling inside that head. That's the thing. You could
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: interview him a thousand times and probably not be able to.
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: I don't have a good answer, but here's what I
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: do believe, and I'll say it again, and I've said
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: it before. Regardless of whatever decision Fetterman makes about which
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: side he wants to conference with, um there are other
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: republican senators or.
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: Bless you excuse me or senator you know it's how
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: you know we're taping it live folks yeah there you
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: go or senators who are not not comfortable with the
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: party but still side with them and i think i'll
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: give you john curtis and Utah, I'll give you Mr.
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: Murkowski in Alaska. Even Todd Young in Indiana to some extent.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: Even Todd Young in Indiana. I think if it, it
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: all depends on how it looks, right? You know, party
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: switches that happen that way with, when it goes with
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: where public, the public is, are supportive. When, what you
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: don't ever see very often is, is the scenario you're painting.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Correct. Which is the.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Country wants one thing and somebody decides to go against
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: the grain.
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: The country gives Democrats 51 Senate seats and John Fetterman
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: switches D to R to make it 50-50 and get right.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: You usually see it part of a landslide. People are like,
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: oh shit, I'm going to hop on now and get
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: on that wave.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Look, in 94, 94 Republicans have this big election. I
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: think it was both Rick Shelby flips I think it
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: was Ben Nighthorse Campbell was pretty soon after that. It
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: wasn't right away. I think that was- I think it
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: was 95, but yes.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: I think he was a little.
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: Bit later in the cycle. But it was doing it
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: when it felt like it was safe to do it,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: when it was politically advantageous. The problem you have with
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: the Fetterman situation is I don't see under what scenario
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: is it politically advantageous to him or the party. And
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: that's where I- He may be that angry and bitter
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: and upset with the party. And maybe that's the motivation
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: to do it. But I'm not convinced. Again, I go
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: back to, like I said, I'd love somebody to point
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: out to us, shoot us an email, shoot us a
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: comment on this one about a time when a party
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: switcher sort of went against the public's You know, where the.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Jeffords is an example of the what we talked about.
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: Jeffords, you understood why via his state he felt the need.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: Correct. Right.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: It doesn't even make sense in Fetterman's home state for
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: him to do this.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Let me make let me make the devil's advocate argument
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: of how he could why he would do it. He
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: wants to come back to the Senate. He knows that
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: he cannot win a Democratic primary in 2028. Republicans promise
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: him we will clear the Republican field. So you can
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: be that even if you're an independent who caucuses with Republicans,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: you can be the de facto Republican nominee.
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: That's the only way that I could. It makes any sense.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: I tell me what what evidence that you have. that
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: somehow the National Party could prevent.
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: Clear the field. That's the problem.
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: Clear the field in Pennsylvania. I just don't- For John Fetterman,
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: you're going to- Well, go back.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: And look at Joe Sestak, right? Remember Earl Inspector? He switches,
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: becomes a Democrat.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: Joe Sestak- Do I- I don't- You know, look, I
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: just don't see it.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: I don't see that.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that that would- I don't think they
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: could guarantee it.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: That's the problem. Oh, they definitely couldn't guarantee it. I'm
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: just saying, could- Would he- fall for it more than
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: they could get or only.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: If he wants to bet that like this goes back
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: to it's sort of like look here's what i i
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: here's all i can do is observe at this point
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: okay the fact of the matter is fetterman keeps moving
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: the goalposts on democratic control yep that's all you need
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: to know And you know what? If I were the
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: Senate Democrats and I were wondering about what my numbers were,
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: I'd say go find six seats. Or you better net five.
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: You better net five. You better net five or six.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: Assume you're down one.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: Assume you need five now, not four. That's what I
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: would assume.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Now, to your point about party switching usually going with
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: the grain rather than against the grain. Mm-hmm. Lisa Murkowski
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: is up for reelection in 2028. She is not old.
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: She could run again. We've already seen her lose a
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Republican primary in the past, 2010, to Joe Miller, run
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: as an independent, write in and win. Would Lisa Murkowski
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: switch parties if Democrats retook control of the Senate? And
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: is it totally dependent on whether or not Mary Peltola wins?
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: I think it's totally dependent on Peltola winning.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: So if they took control of the Senate and they
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: lose Alaska, Murkowski doesn't do it. She won't do that.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Murkowski has one North Star, and I think it's the
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: state of Alaska.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: And I mean that.
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: And I really think that that's how she's, you know,
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: this is how she's won.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Well, it's a family tradition, too. I mean, you know,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: it's the family business. Well, yes. Although Frankie's was less. Look,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't, I don't, I love my father.
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't want people disparaging my father to praise me.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: And so I don't want to. I don't I don't
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: want to put Lisa Murkowski in this situation, but I
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: don't I think her father was a mediocre politician. And
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: I think she is not. I think her father was
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: a mediocre senator.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: I think she is not. That's an interesting thing. So
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: I just think she's fathers and sons or daughters and sons.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: And who's a better politician?
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: She's just 10 X better than. Look, obviously, or, you know,
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: Frank Murkowski is one of the worst performing politicians.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Oh, my. That governor's race. He came in third. He
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: got like 10 percent of the vote. Yeah, ever.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: And, you know, it doesn't mean I say this. He
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: was just a bad politician. Maybe he was really maybe
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: he had really good ideas. I'm not going to I'm
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: not going to I'm not trying to disparage. We're talking
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: about campaign just as a campaigner.
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: And she is she's I think got her finger on
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: the pulse better. Frankly, she's just been through it. She's
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: been through a bunch of tough races, tough aspects to
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: do at the primary, losing it, understands what losing feels like,
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: ran a quixotic campaign with a right and it worked.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Right. She knows her state.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: So I don't think I think the you know, and
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: here's what I think she would do. And it's what
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: I would do if I were her, which is, look,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: I'll tell you what's the best interest.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: Of Alaska being in the Senate majority. And I will
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: always be in the Senate majority. Period. Especially because a
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: state like that that is so dependent on federal money. Correct.
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: And between Ted Stevens, Don Young, and Frank Murkowski, who's
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: in the Senate, and Lisa Murkowski, they have gotten so
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: much largesse from the federal government. That argument doesn't work
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: in a lot of states, but it might work.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: In 49 states. I think it might only work in one.
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: That's interesting.
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: But it's the one I could make an argument that
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: it could have worked in Maine.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: She's not going to make that argument, I don't think.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: But yes, I agree. Because it reminds people she's been
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: in the Senate forever. Correct.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: I think that might be the path I would think
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: about if I were her.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm interested. I don't think her I think people
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: link her and Fetterman and I don't think it's a
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: one for one. What Fetterman does is not tied. I
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: don't really think to what Murkowski does.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: Murkowski is tied to Peltola way more. A, I think
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: that a lot, not a little.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: I think before she's in play.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: But look, she ain't going to do it for anything
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: short of energy and natural resources.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: You got to give her Senate chairmanship, which is not
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: nothing going into a reelect. I'm going to come back
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: to the Senate at the end. Stay tuned because we
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: have a very special surprise at the end. But before
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: we do that, Chuck, I do want to do a
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: little 28 because I feel like, you know, we're 35
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: days from the election and 36 days from the 2028
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: presidential race. Amazing. Kind of starting in earnest, effectively. Just astonishing.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: I was... I flagged, it happened last week, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: did a sit down with Shane Goldmacher of the New
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: York Times, where she again floats the kind of like,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you never know when your moment passes. And,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: you know, like the and slash but, Axios wrote something
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: on Monday talking about she was on this upstate New
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: York tour and still keeping the door open to running
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: for the Senate in 2028 when Schumer is up and
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: we would assume probably either retires. I don't think Schumer
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: stays in the race if she's in it. Where do
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: you think she lands? I saw the New York times
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: thing and I thought, well, she's running for, I mean,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: coupled with the freezing her eggs and the, like, do
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: you think she's still. Cause most of these people in
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: the top tier on both sides, I think we can,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: we feel pretty like JD Vance is running. Gavin Newsom
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: is running. Josh Shapiro is running. Right. Pete Buttigieg is running.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Do you think she's genuinely still undecided? And what does
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: that say?
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: If anything, Look, I know that what we're supposed to
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: do is behave like Stephen A.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Smith in this one or Skip Bayless or that crowd.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Hot take machine. Let me give you the hot take,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: of course. Here's the deal. She'll never win. Let me
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: tell you something here. I am a big believer in....
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: Watch what they do, not what they say.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: 100%. I think that's such a great lesson in politics generally.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: She's behaving like.
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: A Senate candidate, not a presidential candidate.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: But I do think if I were in her shoes,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't want anybody to think I was out of
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: this presidential race until I decided to be out of
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: the presidential race.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: Tell me when you say she's acting like a Senate candidate.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: Tell me what you mean.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: All of her actual moves in the last three or
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: four months have been all about upstate New York. She's
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: meeting with the mayor of Buffalo.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: She's learning.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: You know, she's doing the the listening tour of upstate. Remember,
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: outside of New York City, New York is Ohio. Now,
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: I can also make the case that the best way
• 42:09
  Speaker 2: to learn how to run for president. might be to start,
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: and without looking like you're running for president, is to
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: start learning the rest of the state of New York
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: outside the New York metro.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: Area, right?
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Right, because outside the New York metro area, it's the
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: swing part of the Midwest and of the country. So,
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: you know, I can play fast and loose and cute,
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: but it strikes me that that's what, you know, but
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: here's the thing with her. She doesn't, you know, I'm
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: sure she's getting advice Plenty of people have said this
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: to her. And look, she's not stupid. She's figured this
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: out too, which is you don't have to say anything.
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: And more importantly- People will keep asking until she says
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: something definitive. She's not going to disappear.
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: And there are a handful of candidates who in theory
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: don't have to announce right away.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: And she's- Absolutely. Okay. Let me just, I totally agree
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: with you. So she can keep it open.
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: And really doesn't have to decide about running- There's every option.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: She can do both. Maybe explore a.
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: Presidential run and decide, no, I'm running for the Senate.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying that's– I think once you make the
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: decision to run for president, I think the oxygen– I
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: still believe in what we were talking about a few
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: weeks ago, which.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: Is she consumes so much oxygen. So much.
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: It may be hard for her– she's got to just
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: elevate above the gravity of a normal campaign. Because of
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: the interest in her campaign and all of this. But
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: I do think the midterms here matter and the results matter.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: And how does Abdul El-Sayed do?
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Yes. And how that stuff matters. Does Angie Nixon come close? Yeah.
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: Do the progressive candidates do better or worse in these
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: swingier states? And I think some of that– but like
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I said, when you watch what she does, she's doing–
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: She seems to be a bit more focused there. And
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: here's the thing about her running for Senate. Running for
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Senate also might mean that she, you know, allows her
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: to both run, be a senator and start a family
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: and still be- Yeah, it could be a bullpen. Running
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: for president, that's virtually impossible. Running for president really does-
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: Especially if you win. Put a crimp in the family thing.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: And I'm not sure, look, I want to say one
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: other thing here is I'm not- I'm not making a
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: judgment about whether this is right or wrong. I'm just
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: being factual about how the American electorate has handled this.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think single people can win the presidency in
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: this modern era.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Oh, interesting. And I think- Like even 2027, 2028. Prove
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: to me otherwise. Prove to me otherwise. Well, no one has.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, in the modern era, right? Franklin Pierce was
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: single or James Buchanan was single, but like... Yeah, or
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: Tyler was Tyler's sister. Single. Tyler, I think, was the
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: one who lived with his sister. I think he was
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: single at the time he was in the White House.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Who's the one that everybody thinks was in the closet?
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: James Buchanan. It's Buchanan. Yeah, I'm almost sure. It's either
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: Buchanan or... Franklin Pierce is the really good looking one.
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: I think Buchanan was the one.
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Anyway, okay, let me pull on that. Look, I just,
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: you know, I remember Bob Carey. It was an issue.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: And we talked about this and he was aware it
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: was an issue.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, this is not about gender. And that's what I, look,
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: I know some people, you know, some people want to
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: hear something.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: A single woman, right.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: And it's not, this one's not about gender. This is single, period.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: And I think it's tougher if you're not a parent.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: It's tougher to run for president if you're not a parent.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: Okay, so let me pull that thread slightly.
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: Because parent, being a parent is an automatic relationship. There's
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: a relatability.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Yes, that has nothing to do with politics. Correct.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: And that's just something that's.
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: A humanizing thing, too.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: It's an additive.
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: If she does not run for president, Chuck, that's a
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: big ass lane. Oh, yeah, it is. Because Bernie Sanders
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: is not in that lane. Right. He's not going to run.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: Ro Khanna, I don't think.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: I love that everybody assumes Bernie's not going to run.
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's 84.
• 46:18
  Speaker 4: He's 84 but you're right okay i i just if
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: she doesn't run it's killing him that he's the moment
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: might actually be perfect for him and he's sitting there
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: going and i'm 83 years old he looks the same
• 46:34
  Speaker 4: as yes.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: Right right i don't know man i think if she
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: doesn't ride lane He could very well get in.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: He could. I know that.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: And yes, he'd have to deal with all the age things.
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: And it probably is enough to cost him an opportunity
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: to do it.
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: But I think he doesn't. I mean, I don't know.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: I go back to my favorite James Carville quote. There's
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: a lot of great James Carville quotes. But one of
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: them that's a good one is, you know, running for
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: president is like having sex.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: You don't just do it once.
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever heard that one. It's one
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: of my favorites. It's so true. Because it's so true.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Nobody ever runs for president once. It's just a one
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: time and I'm out. Yep. I experienced it. I don't
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: need to do it again. Yep. Okay. Let's do, before
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: we get to the very end in our special announcement,
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: I want to reserve a little time to talk about
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: The fighting Chuck Todd's, the Green Bay Packers. So we're
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: going to do a little sports here, folks. By the way,
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: you know what? Before we do that, Chuck, let's do this.
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: The Washington Nationals finished. 77 and 85 better than the
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: last two years uh still under 500 is this season
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: we are now done 162 is this season a net
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: positive a net negative or a net neutral in your mind.
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: I have an answer i'm at net positive it's so
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: am i I totally agree. There's no doubt. This was
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: a step forward, not a step backward. But let's let's
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: you know, it's a couple of steps forward. It wasn't
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: a giant step forward.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not a leap.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: We're not in the playoffs. It's a couple of steps.
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, if we were in the American League, we
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: might we might still be eligible.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's unbelievable. All the good teams are in
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: the West. It is. I mean, the National League. They're all.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, it's it's a strange it's a strange season. But,
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: you know, that's baseball, right?
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's how it works. I agree.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: We signed Cavalli. Baseball playoffs and hockey playoffs. Hockey playoffs
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: are just chaos. Well, baseball playoffs can get chaotic.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Well, but the Dodgers, at least recently, the best team
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: has won. You're right.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: It doesn't always happen.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah. You had the Texas Rangers on your team. On
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: your bingo card a couple years ago, right?
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: No.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: I totally had forgotten they even won a World Series.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: I was watching some game. I think so did the
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: people in Dallas. Two years removed from the World Series.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: I was like, wait, what? Signed Cavalli, James Wood. I
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: don't know about Abram. I worry about that situation.
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: I worry about whether they screwed up the Abram situation.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: I do. I do.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: And Cruz didn't get better.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: He didn't get better.
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: I'm a little nervous that Cruz didn't get better.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: But Lyle, Dylan Lyle, I think is clearly a major
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: league outfielder and hitter. I'll give you the other big one.
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: I think the biggest improvement and the biggest fix is
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: actually Jacob Young.
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: I mean. Very solid. He's an incredible fielder. And so
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: he hit 250, right? I mean.
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: You know, he is basically, he gave us the year
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: that Robles gave us that one year in the World
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: Series year. And you're like, wow, because he's such a–
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: he's one of the– he's Andrew Jones on defense. If
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: he can just be.
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: You need him to be slightly below league average.
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: He just needed to be Adam Eaton on offense. And
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: if he's Adam Eaton on offense, which is kind of
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: what he was this year.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, steal 30-plus bases, hit 250. Look, the hit– Here's
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: the thing. It's pretty clear.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: We got a better set of hitting coaches than we've
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: had in a long time because Lyle got better.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: Young got better. He got better. which makes the Dylan
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: Cruz situation. He's not gotten better.
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: It just worries me.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: That makes it a little bit. Number two overall pick.
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes it a little bit more concerning to
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: me because of how much progress a lot of these
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: other prospects who are stalling on the hitting side of things.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Even Yo-Yo Morales and, you know, Shaparo. Like, yeah, I agree.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about, because you and I were
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: texting about this. Mm-hmm. Let me acknowledge, first of all,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: on the college football front, I guess I'm going to
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: root for Miami now because A & M' s out. It's over, buddy.
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, no chance. I mean, it's just a disaster.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: What's the diagnosis? What's the diagnosis? The defense isn't as good.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: And Marcel Reed hasn't got, he's still incredibly inaccurate, particularly
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: on the run. They're just, I think they're probably going
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: to finish seven and five or six and six to
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: be totally like, I'm not trying to downplay it.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Like, I just don't think they're good. Well, you don't
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: have a running game and everything. You know, Reed is
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: better if he can use some play action. And if
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: you're not afraid of them.
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: He's just so inaccurate. If you watch one game, he
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: just misses a bunch of throws he should make.
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: Can I just say, and this applies to A & M,
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: this applies to Indiana. Um, and this, you know, which
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: is when you, they both sent a ton of talent
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: to the NFL tons and it is really, you know, look,
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: Miami set a lot of talent in the NFL, but not,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: you know, it's two, two of it, two of Miami's
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: most three, actually three of Miami's most important players from
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: last year's playoff run are there now. And then they,
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: you know, which is Tony Mark Fletcher and, um, uh, uh,
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: on defense, we have the eight year, the eight year starter.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Um, The Jess Settles of college football. Yeah, yeah. It's
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: on that sort of– he's.
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: In the nickel slash linebacker, one of those sort of
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: kind of quasi nickel linebacker roles. So– and they were–
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: all three of them were huge. The only big important
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: returner was Reed, right? You guys lost Casey Concepcion and
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: all that. You look at Indiana, had a similar situation. Yeah,
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: I mean you lose the Heisman Trophy or whatever you
• 52:19
  Speaker 2: think of Fernando Mendoza. It is harder to replace– it
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: is harder to just reload– Is it as easy as
• 52:26
  Speaker 2: everybody thinks it is?
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: And it's not just take lots of talent and dump
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: it all together. It's just not. If it was, team
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: sports wouldn't be interesting. You know, Miami's got all these great.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: I look at a lot of stars on offensive line
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: right now, but they're still young and green and they're
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: still learning.
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: I mean that. Well, I'm a Miami fan. Now I'm in.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: We'll welcome you.
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: And so let's now go.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: And I don't want any bad karma. Like if you bring.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, true. Well, if they start losing, I'm out. They
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: blow this Clemson game. I'll get out, man. I want
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: you out. Yeah, totally fair. So now that we've discussed
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: my pain point, let's talk about yours, which is the
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: green Bay Packers. First of all, a bunch of people
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: have asked me this. I know the answer to this,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: but just so people know, tell people how a kid
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: growing up in Miami is a Packers fan.
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: You know, when you're brainwashed by your father, I said,
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: it's his dad.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: I mean, he was, so my dad grows up in
• 53:17
  Speaker 2: a Waterloo, Iowa, which is might as well be green Bay, Wisconsin, right?
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: It's a very, it's a, it was a Waterloo is a,
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: If you know it a little bit, you know, it's
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: a it's it's it's not a small it's not a
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: it's a big town or a small city, just like
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: Green Bay is big town, small city.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: Working class town. And and, you know, growing up in Iowa,
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: you sort of were anti-Chicago. And Chicago's chief rival was
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: Green Bay. And oh, by the way, more importantly, when
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: my dad is 12 and 13 years old, the best
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: team in football is the Green Bay Packers.
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: Is that like Bart Starr and Hornig and all those people?
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: That's all those guys.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: This is 59, 60, 61 when they win three in
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: a row and all of that. So, you know, he
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: indoctrinates me into there and. You know, but he also
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: had like this anti-dolphins. He hated the owner of the Dolphins,
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: a guy named Joe Robbie at the time.
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: He had this. Oh, yeah. Joe Robbie Stadium. I didn't
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: realize he owned the team.
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: OK. Yeah, he owned the team. And he, Joe Robbie,
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: one of the people, to his credit, he didn't use
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: public funds. I mean, he got some public help, but
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: he built his own stadium.
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: Good for him to put his name on it then. Exactly.
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: He built his own stadium. That's what I would do. Yeah.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: But anyway, Robbie, he was convinced was stealing money from
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: the University of Miami athletic program because the way the
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: Dolphins controlled all the revenue out of the Orange Bowl.
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: So even when the Hurricanes played in the Orange Bowl,
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: they were screwed on. Like they didn't really get any
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: didn't get to get and get a good cut of
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the concessions and all of that.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. It's a better deal now.
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: The Dolphins do treat the Hurricanes a lot better with
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: hard rock than than Robbie ever did.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: With the orange bowl, but, um, but your dad had
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: it out for him. I like that. I like a
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: good vengeance.
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: So, you know, look, I, I've said this, uh, the
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: first chapter book I ever read as a kid was, uh,
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: instant replay by Jerry Kramer, which is the, basically the,
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: among the earliest, uh, of its kind of seasons, you know,
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: a sort of diary of a season. And it happened
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: to be a season that they won the whole thing.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: Okay, so that explains that. Now, Chuck, what the hell
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: is going on with the Packers? Because I was watching
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: the game on Sunday and texting you. You mean on Thursday.
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: On Thursday night. On Thursday night, that's right. And they
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: looked terrible against an 0-2 Falcons. The Falcons look like
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl champion. This has been the issue. This.
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: This goes back to last season, right? They've lost, you know,
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: something like they've won one of their last eight. They've blown,
• 55:46
  Speaker 2: you know, they had leads in like seven of their
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: last eight losses in the fourth quarter.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: This was a blowout. This one was.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: Every other one wasn't, you know. Look, if you were
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: to ask, everybody has their own theory, right? You know,
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: there's certainly in my little Packers group chats, there is
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: some that are angry at LaFleur, that think LaFleur should
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: have been fired last year. And you can, look, the
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: case to fire LaFleur was pretty strong last year. Because
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: if you look, he basically had success with Aaron Rodgers.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: And then while He while the offense seemed to keep
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: it up, he actually hasn't. He's he's only been a
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: seventh seed with Jordan Love each time.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Right. Right. And he blew. Oh, you were good with
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: an amazing Hall of Famer.
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: You were good with the Hall of Fame quarterback. And then,
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: you know, so the trajectory is terrible. There was no,
• 56:36
  Speaker 2: you know. The the the best case in LaFleur's favor
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: as a coach last year. was the remarkable way he
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: got Malik Willis games, how he got the Packers. I mean,
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: I will say this, Malik Willis and his agent, oh.
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: Matt LaFleur. Got him, made him a lot of money.
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: Because I think we're seeing like, you know.
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: It's not been great.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: No, he probably needs a better offensive coach.
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: I mean. He needs Mike McDaniel.
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: The big joke among, well, no, the big joke among
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Packer fans is LaFleur gets fired and he becomes.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: The OC in Miami. Yeah.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: Because that was the other thing that really frustrates me.
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: And I said this last year. He was more innovative
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: as a coach with Willis than he was with Jordan Love.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: And he was just it is I don't know what
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: it is.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: They looked lost. I think there's that. But the bigger problem.
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: Has been the way that roster has been put together.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: And the offensive line is atrocious. And what really frustrates us,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: many of us Packer fans, is it was obvious in
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: the offseason we had an issue. And they made no
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: real effort.
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: To fix that. Well, that's the GM, right?
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: That's exactly right. And the way the Packers work, so
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: we have no owner. A guy named Ed Policy, the
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: son of Carmen Policy.
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Carmen Policy, the former 49ers guy? 49ers guy.
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: He ran the front office for the 49ers guy. Ed Policy,
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: son of Carmen Policy. He got the gig after 20
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: plus years with Mark Murphy running the Packers. Now, Murphy,
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: and I think Policy has gotten a little more involved
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: in the football operations, but the basic leadership structure is
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: you have this president who is essentially is the representative
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: at the owner's meetings.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: And he's sort of like, you know, the, the board
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: of director, you know, he's the guy running the operation
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: day to day. He's basically the CEO and the way
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: the Packers have done, they vote, they've, they've been powered
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: over the years, the GM and the GM has hiring
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: and firing ability on the coach. And I think it
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: would be awfully ballsy of this GM.
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 58:53
  Speaker 2: To fire LaFleur when arguably, Like I said, there was
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: a case, but they chose not to. They chose to
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: re-sign him last year. Look, I'll be honest.
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: I've been 50-50.
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: I like LeFleur. I loved what he did with Willis,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: and it showed me what he could do.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: Be.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: I've been disappointed with this, but I don't know if
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: you can really, I mean, Jordan Love had no time.
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: The second he snaps the ball, the Falcons defensive linemen
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: weren't as, I mean, this offensive line is, you know.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: So bad. How bad is it, right? Like, it's like
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: you cannot come up with a metaphor. It's as bad
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: as the Nationals bullpen. Yeah, that's a great way of
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: putting it. Like that level bad.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: And the problem with an offensive line, right, Hell, if
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Jordan Love got hurt and you had a good offensive line,
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: you could salvage a playoff run. Where are you finding
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: offensive linemen? On the, you know, practice squads?
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: If there's good offensive linemen on practice squads, they're not there.
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: No. It is, but it really frustrates me because football
• 59:53
  Speaker 2: hasn't changed. The one thing that was true for Newt
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: Rockne's teams is the same thing that was true for
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: Vince Lombardi's teams. The same thing that is true for
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: every team that plays football is In every level, which
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: is if you have a good offensive line, you have
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: a chance to win. If you have a bad offensive line,
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: it's hard to win.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: Hard stop.
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: And if you're not building your team inside out, you're
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: not trying to win. And I just, you know, this
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: is a, you know, they, they got high on the
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: Micah Parsons trade. You want to know insult to injury here? So,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 2: you know, they, they traded. two first-rounders for Micah Parsons, right?
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: This most previous draft.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: He looks good in that beanie hat that he wears
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: on the sidelines.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: I love the guy. And he's going to be, look,
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: when he's healthy, he was great. There was no doubt.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: I think he's worth it. But, you know, you should
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: have at least had a play on the offensive line.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: We don't have a draft pick, first round draft pick
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: next year. Right. So you can't fix it except through
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: free agency. Right.
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: So next year, I mean, you know, you can get
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: decent offensive linemen sometimes in the second round, but these
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: days you see it. Well, yeah, they're top 10 picks.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: They're all, you know, they're really good. You get six,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: sometimes seven linemen taken in a first round these days.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: Like it, it's a, nobody waits till the second round
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: anymore to go get a perspective left or right tackle. So,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: So the Packers had traded that pick. Now, the Cowboys
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: traded a first-round pick to the Jets. The Jets get
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: the best version, either the Cowboys' own pick or the Packers'
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: pick they control. So if the Packers really shit the
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: bed here, Yep. And say, go five and twelve. Which,
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: by the way, my pal Steve Hayes, who's in my
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: fellow Packers fan, he's been a pessimist. He predicted this
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: before the season started. I was certainly nervous, but I thought, well,
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: you know, maybe we can scheme our way out of
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: it and get back into the playoffs.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: If we're five and twelve. Or Spurrier, 5-11. 5-11, not
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: very good.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: 5-11-1, not very good. This team is absolutely tying a game. Like,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt in my mind some crappy-ass poor coaching
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: tie game situation like we did last year.
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: 13-13.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: But you're looking at a top 10 pick that's going
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: to go to the frickin' New York Jets.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: Yep. Good job. The fightin' New York Jets and Geno Smith.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: Good job, Gutenkust. Good job. Big Blue, my team, the
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: New York Giants football team, is 2-1 with Jameis Winston
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: as the quarterback. And they just traded for J.J. McCarthy.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: And I don't really know. Oh, did that happen? I
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: missed this. Thank you for the breaking news. Oh, yeah,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 1: they traded for J.J. McCarthy. So, with Jackson Darnold for
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: the season. So, we'll see how that goes. I love,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: I grew, again, talk about of your youth. That's the
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: team of my youth. So, I root for them. But, yeah. Anywho,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 1: I teased a big announcement. I even, look at this, Chuck.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: Check out this. Ooh, here we go. Wow. Shout out
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: to Heather Gordon for showing me how to do that
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: in Riverside. Well done. Heather Gardner, excuse me, not Heather Gordon,
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: Heather Gardner. We have a sponsor, ladies and gentlemen, for
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesdays. And the sponsor is Kalshi, the prediction market.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: And I wanted to look, Chuck, I wanted to find
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: something that isn't something we always talk about, but I
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: think it's kind of in play now. So let me
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: share this. This market I'm intrigued by. I mean, I
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: want to make sure it's big enough here. Okay, this
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: is Balance of Power. There is now, according to Kelshi,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: a 62% chance that Democrats win the House and the Senate. Now,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: if I scroll, hold on, if I click into this,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: now I made it too big. You can see the
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: numbers here. This is surged. That's the all blue is
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: Democratic sweep. It is surged basically since September 1st. What
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: do you make of that? By the way, we could
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: get our House de-Senate for 1%, Chuck. We could get
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: in on that. You know what's.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: Interesting with that scenario is there's actually a better path
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: for our House de-Senate than there is for Republican sweep.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's not as big of a gap. That's
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: not totally insane.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: Because the ceiling for Democratic gains in the House is
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: pretty low. The House is so low. Right. Exactly. But
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: it's so hard to make money. But is this too high?
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: Is 62% too high? Let me share one other thing, Chuck,
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: because I think this is interesting. It feels too high.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: It does. Man, that's a lot. The other one I
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: want to know, are friends at Decision Desk HQ? It
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: would be something. I will tell you this. Yeah.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: It all depends on how you use the markets. And
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: I think there are multiple ways to use the markets
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: and everybody should use it their own way, you know,
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: and be sure you, you know, like anything, whether you
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: invest in the stock market or you invest in here, don't,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: you know, Don't use, you know, don't use money you
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: can't afford.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: I was going to say, don't put your mortgage down
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: on any of this, on anything.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: But, you know, you look at that situation there and
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: I would, at the moment, it's a better buy to
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: buy the D House or Senate in the moment. Because
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: my guess is, look, there is going to be, here's
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: the pattern in the past that even in wave years.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: There's natural tightening.
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: And there becomes this where you start to have more
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: likely voter models and you will have a difference. Now,
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: you could maybe some of this gets priced in and
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: all of this. But at under a one in three chance.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 2: Twenty nine percent. I think that's insane. I think there is.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: I think I think. Look, do I think I'd be
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: sitting at Democrats sweep in the mid 50s? and then
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: I'd have D House, R Senate in the high 30s.
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: This is, I think, your best bet.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: That's just how my power rating would put it at
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: the moment. Again, this goes to, look, if you're day
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: trading this a little bit in this market, which some
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: people do, and this is why I enjoy the prediction
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: markets because.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: Even if you're wrong, you don't have to lose all
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: your money. That's right. Type of thing. Right.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: You can sort of cash out of a position.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: Certainly, you know. Yeah. Day to day. If you take
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: a loss, it happens. Yeah.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: What's intriguing is, look, do I think do I think
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: Democrats are favored to sweep?
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: I do. Do I think it's more likely than not?
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: I do.
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: Do I think those odds are a little high?
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: I do. So I want to share, and I had
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: this up for a second, but I just want to
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: share our friends at Decision Desk HQ, because I think
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: this is more in line probably with where we both are.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: They posted this on Twitter today. Here's what's important. They
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: have 72% chance Democrats win the House and 54% chance
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Democrats win the Senate. 51% chance that there is a sweep,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: which is the first time it's right here. This is
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: the first time our forecast has had Democrats as favorites
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: to flip Congress this cycle, which I think is interesting.
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: Like the, that's a forecast, not a prediction market. Right.
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: But they're kind of, they're moving in tandem, but Cal,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: she's just a little folks in Cal, she a little
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: bit more.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: I have to tell you, can I just tell you,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: if you go back to that page that you had,
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: there was a, there was a market. That caught my
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: eye before you got rid of it. That I was like, well,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: that's awfully low.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: No, no, no. Go in. Click there. Click in. Click
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: in here. Yeah. Yeah. And then you scroll down. Yeah.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: And I believe Maine Senate pops up pretty quick.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: Oh, Maine Senate. Yes. Hold on. I will do that.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: That's in this one. And if I scroll to here.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: Go pull up Maine Senate. Yeah, there it was. Go
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: pull up Maine Senate. Yep. There it is.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: You want to talk about somebody who's too low on
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: the market?
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: Susan Collins is too low on the market. You like
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: yes at 41 cents. I think.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: Again, I look at it as where do I think
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: it could be in three weeks? Yep, yeah, because that's
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: how you make, that's how you profit. I think it's
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: more likely at 46 cents than it is at 39 cents.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: How's that? And this is interesting because look, like, you know,
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: this is right around when they're replacing Platner, but since
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: they've replaced Platner, it's now, this is what's interesting, Chuck.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: It has dropped. Is that the Times poll? And that's
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: the Times poll that has, that had Collins for up 49, 46.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: So it was even, I mean, look, if we had
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: if we'd gotten in here, we could have got Collins
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: at 33, right. You know, 10 days ago. Right. I agree.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: I think, I think people who underestimate Susan Collins, let
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: me stop sharing, but do so at their own peril.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: She has won polling in 2020, had her down between
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: five and eight points and she won by nine. It's
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: not suggesting it's going to be that big a mess.
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: I think there's just a lot of mediocre new England pollsters, man. I, I, Look,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with that UNH Bowl,
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 2: but it is all– it is– it feels like– I'll
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: say this.
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: Very bullish for Sununu. Very bullish.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: I'll say this with the– I know they're not hurting
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: because they have shown some unique results in a lot
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: of places. I think it's off in all of those places, right?
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: But it's better than like the– I'm sorry. I need
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: more proof that inside– advantage is actually.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: It's not just moving it toward where everybody else is
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: saying it.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: Is i don't believe it yeah i don't i would
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: like they don't again a previous owner of that brand
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: totally made stuff up and they did it just like
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: this it was always herded it was always in the
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: range of where everybody else had it and here they
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: come again and i just think this inside advantage crowd
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: I need more proof that this is a real poll.
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: I don't buy it. So we're slightly on Kelsey. We're
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: slightly skeptical on the 62% Dem sweep. I think we're
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: both bullish on Collins, at least in the next month.
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Do me a favor. Go to Kansas. Show me Susan
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: Collins and show me. I would assume Adam Hamilton is
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: way lower, but let me check. Yeah. I'm curious if
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: he's below 30 or not. Kansas governor, Kansas governor. Hold on.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: Hold on. Let me type Kansas Senate in. Hold on. Senate.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: You're seeing the sausage be made in real time. Well,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: you know, hey, this is a new sponsor. Here we go.
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: We're still navigating. Let me share. It's got a big reveal.
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 2: 70-30.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: So you can get Hamilton for.
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: similar ish yeah and that's narrow it is actually hamilton's
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: the buy i think hamilton in that case i think
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: he has a i think he has a 45 chance
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: of that'll be a 55 45 split by the last
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: weekend of this campaign yep 100.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Yep because marshall like it's the good gets better bad
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: gets worse hayley barber right it's like marshall's not fixing.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: It marshall may win but he's not fixing it now correct.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: Chuck Todd of the Chuck Todd cast of Dynastic, of
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: Beyond the Pod on Substack with Chuck Todd, and of
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesdays. Like, comment, and subscribe. Thank you, as always.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: Give me your World Series. Wait, wait, wait. Give me
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: your World Series. Okay, I'm going to tell you what
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: I'm rooting for, and I don't think this will happen.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: Just tell me the Root Series you're rooting for. That's
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: a good way to do it. Because I would like
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: to see this series Yankees-Dodgers. That's why Fox would like
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: to see. I like a lot of stars. I'd like
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: to see Aaron Judge healthy, Shohei Otani healthy, because I
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: don't care. I have no rooting interest in it.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: There's only one World Series to root for.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, I'm ready.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 2: If you're just rooting for a spectacle. it's the all
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: Chicago world series.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: No white socks. Give me white socks. I'm on team
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: white socks. The Pope, the Pope Obama and Chuck Todd.
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: I'm on team white socks and my, and my dear
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 2: uncle Joe, who's having a tough, it's having a tough time.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: Uh, love your brother. Shout out to uncle Joe. Is
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: he a Cubs guy or a white socks guy? Oh,
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: he's a white socks guy. There we go. South side.
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: This is a little bit of an elixir. And so, uh,
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: Love it. Amazing turnaround. The stats on how many games
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: the White Sox lost in the last few years versus
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: making the playoffs. You want to talk about hope for
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: the Nats? I totally agree.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 2: It's the White Sox pulling off what they did. That
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: should give Nats fans hope, brother. Nats, the new White Sox.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 2: Chuck Todd, take care.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesday. Be well. Like, subscribe, comment. Thanks, everybody.