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The Favorites - NFL Week 1 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I'm smiling. We are live from our Tommy John Home Studios.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: That's right. We have stepped up into the big leagues
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: with our friends at Tommy John. I'm joined as always
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: by my co host, my companion, Mike campadre my BFF
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello, so I'm in.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Hello Chad.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: I was wondering why I look so good and sounds
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: so clean. Now I know Tommy John Studios.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: That's right. But listen, we could talk about Tommy John
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: all day.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: We finally arrived at week one of the NFL season.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: For those of you who are new here, every week
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: we record three episodes of this show. It's live only
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube channel and in the Action
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Network app. Subscribe to the YouTube channel. That's where you're
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: going to get our information in the moment. Sometimes these
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: lines move, so you want to check it out. Every
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Tuesday at one thirty, Simon and I do our betting
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: preview episodes. We go through every game on the slate.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: We do our Foxhole Pick, our executive decision, pick our
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Simon says Pick. Every Thursday, eleven am Eastern, we do
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: our Best Bets episode. That's where Simon and I narrow
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: down to our top five picks for our huge free
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: to play one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: We also on that Thursday do a round of Sharp Calls.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: That's where we get input from the wise guys who
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: listen to the Tuesday show. They might have critiques, they
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: might agree with us. We also do now We're New,
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Tommy John, Big Balls, Bet of the Week, our Underdog
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: money Line, RLA, and more. And then on Sunday seven
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: thirty Eastern, we do our NFL recap show. We talk
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: about how our bets did, We wrap up before kickoff
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: of Sunday Night of Football, and we start looking ahead
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: of the lines for the following week. Once again, if
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: you're listening to the show and you're not signing up
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: for this contest, it doesn't make sense to me, because
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: it's free money. You should be joining our free, free
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Free Favorites podcast. One hundred thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Contest presented by Bet three six five five picks against
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the spread. Every week, over one hundred thousand dollars in
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  Speaker 1: cash prizes up for grabs, including a first place prize
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: of forty thousand dollars. Sign up Favorites dot action network
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: dot com. We know some people had some problems signing
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: up when we started talking about the contest. Got that fixed.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: If you run into an issue, try end of the season.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: The top ten finishers get paid. First place is forty thousand,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: second place ten thousand. Every single week a first place
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: finisher is getting a grand all for signing up and
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: winning a contest. You're going to be making the bets anyways.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: You might as well go Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com Again.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: We'll be talking about this contest every week for the
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: next eighteen weeks. You are competing against me and Simon. Okay,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: this is like your chance to compete against us. Don't
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: get left out. Sign up for your chance at a
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: forty thousand dollars first first place prize Favorites at actionnetwork
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: dot Com. Before we dive into the week one slate,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: the favorites is presented by Bet three six five. Bet
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  Speaker 1: three six five. Must be twenty one or older in
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply all right, as we did
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: last year. There's a couple of season long props that
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: we want to make sure we're keeping track of. You
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: guys can still jump in on these. We will track
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: them all season long on the show. Trevor Lawrence lead
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the league in passing at twenty two to one. Max
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Crosby DPO WI Defensive Player of the Year seven to one.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson to lead the league in sacks fourteen to one. Simon,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: I'm adding Cooper Cup most receiving yards three. Yeah, you
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: talked about that on Green Dot Daily today. I loved it.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna add that into my list no more than
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Jilly Tally Simon.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: We gotta talk about a game.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Pa, Take then.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: To the squee below.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Cannes City, Baltimore Ravens Kansas City Chiefs layoff rematch. I
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: want to remind you that this is the moment we
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: were convinced the Ravens were the right side in this
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: playoff game. This was the moment when the Ravens abandoned
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: the run game, reverted back to the habits that cost
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: them in years pass and lost the game. This was
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: the moment when we decided that there was no way
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: we could bet against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: even though we liked the Niners and they probably had
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: the better overall team, because no one wins betting against
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. Simon, please tell the listeners what we are
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: doing in this game.
• 5:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going to be back Chad week one lines.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: And what a great game to start with. I mean,
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: come on, NFL gave us a great game here. I
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: know a lot of people thought it would be the
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: Chiefs Houston, but I love that they're going with the.
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: AFC Championship games start the season off.
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: It's just like two teams that you know, not that
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: they are new identities, but they're not what they were
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: last year. I think the line reflects that, Chad, right,
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is an eight point swing. That line
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: was five last year in the playoffs. Now it's plus three.
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: So clearly there's a lot of movement and a lot
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: of public perception here, and me and Chad are gonna
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: overthink this one.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: If this was two and a half.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: I bet you me and Chad would like the Chiefs
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: here because Evan He's I mean, just killed us with
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: that stat. At anytime, anytime you get my Homes under
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: a field goal, you take it. It doesn't matter if
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: it's two and a half or if he's a three
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: point dog. Long term, you just bet Mahomes. And that's
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: the exact scenario. On the flip side. Me and you
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: talk about all the time we bet Lamar as a dog.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: I think this year we're gonna have many opportunities like this,
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: betting him as a dog, just because they are not
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: as strong as they were last year, right, I think
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: there are more questions across their offensive line and their
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: defensive line, Like there are question marks there, and now
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: you're throwing the loser McDonald to the Seattle Seahawks. It's like, Okay,
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: their brilliant defensive coordinators left now and he's in Seattle.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: What's this defense gonna look like this? Kyle Hamilton still
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: the same freedom, So a lot of unknowns here.
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: Luckily, this couldn't be one of our fives anyway, right
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: because this doesn't fit our contest criteria. So I feel
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: luckier because this would have been a hard decision. Honestly,
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: at two and a half, I might have been convinced
• 7:07
  Speaker 3: to put this one in chet. That's how that's how
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: strong I feel about Mahomes and this this Chief team
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: coming to this season. And that's my question mark to
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: this Ravens team. But plus three, come on, we're playing
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: the numbers, we're playing the odds.
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: We will take a little more at that number.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Se So I thing isn't our favor to play the
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: Ravens in this spot. We know we hate going against
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes. And for the record, Patrick Mahomes, he's not
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: great as a favorite in his career, but you have
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: to discount the fact that so many of those games
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: when he is playing as a favorite, he is a
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: massive favorite. As a favorite of a field goal, He's
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: actually eleven and seven in his career. However, Lamar Jackson
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: twelve and one in his career as an underdog's past
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: over the past three seasons, seven and zero against the
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: spread as a dog. John Harbaugh, let's talk about Harbaugh
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: for a second. Okay, John Harbaugh, Like, this guy is
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: bonkers as a head coach. Can you name the most
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: profitable Week one NFL coach in the Action Labs database
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: going back twenty years? Simon, John.
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: John?
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: I remember I thought it was McVeigh because all those
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: years of gone.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Guy, I just set you up.
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: It's John freaking ar Harbal right.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: John Harbaugh is so good on extra rest, big bad
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: John right, which is essentially, he's had ten months of preparation.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Ravens twenty seven and eight straight up, twenty thirteen and
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: two against the spread. If he looked just at Week one,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: twelve and four, has failed to cover just once in
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: the past eight years. I know it's scary, we're gonna
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: be asking you to do so many scary, gross, disgusting
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: things in this show. This is not the show where
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: we're going to tell you bet the Chiefs, bet the
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Cowboys outright whatever, every single week. This is the show
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: where we tell you who to bet, no matter how
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: ugly it is. Bet the Ravens plus three up.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Gotta do it all right.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: This is a pro joe game right now, and it's
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: interesting because the public is on the Packers and the
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: pros are on the Eagles. The game is lined at
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: two and a half Eagles minus two and a half.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: Got I got a lot of stuff like that are
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: applicable here. If you're looking at short dogs to start
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: the season, then you need to think about the fact
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: that favorites of by the way one to three and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: a half, which both the Ravens and the Packers fit in.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: They're terrible in September. That's all I'm going to say.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: What do we think of the Packers here against your team,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: against a team you think has the best roster in
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the NFL?
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: Another game, though, if you could avoid, I'd avoid it,
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: like we're talking about a game in Brazil. It's truly.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: This is a cash grab for the NFL, and it's
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: like too many unknowns are really trying to handicap it.
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: It's a ten hour flight, Like that's a big deal.
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: These guys are flying all the way down there, and
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: you know we talk all the time. Like the craziest
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: part about this game is the Eagles lose a home
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: game here to Green Bay and these are two teams
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: that we both talked about chat. We think these are
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: guys gonna be fighting for a playoff spot. So like
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: this week one game in Brazil might decide playoff scene.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: It's a very bizarre scenario, so to me, like if
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: you're in a contest or I know a lot of
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: people already reached out to me they're pickpools.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: This line locked a one and a half. That's pretty
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: good value.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: Like if you want to roll the dice and you know,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: take the one point one and a half points of
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: value and play this number, you can do it. I
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: think Chad's are the right mentality are saying, like if
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: this is three, why would you not take Green Bay
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: with the plus three? Like with all the unknowns and
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: the Eagles have new coordinators. It's Lafleor is a dog,
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: which Sheddy even mentioned, like Lafour is a dog, it's
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: been very profitful to us, even as Rogers years like
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: when he's a dog. It's a nice bet to make,
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: so to me, too many questions, I would even if
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: you had one and a half, I would honestly avoid
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: this one into the contest just because again it's in Brazil,
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: it's week one, and there's so many other things going on. Logistically,
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: I just I'd rather pass on this one and play
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: on more stable games here in America. So I definitely
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: definite cash grab for the league and you know, a
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: game that could have huge effects come January. So definitely
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: a great game though, right a spotlight game on a
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: Friday night. I don't want to complain about that, Like
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: I love we have a Thursday Friday game because that
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: was always the worst, right Chad, the two days in
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: between the Sunday. But yeah, still Eagles, Eagles fans, Green
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: Bay fans that are mad about this game.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: I totally get it.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Matt before, second most profitable coach against the spread the
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: past five years, behind just Dan Campbell, And.
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: As honest as I can, I don't. I really don't
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: even know how to respond that, you know, I mean,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: I'm shocked by that.
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: Also in the first three weeks of the regular season.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: So think about this for next week. Matt Lafloor thirteen
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: and two against the spread.
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: So again, just take the plus three, sad just laying
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: it out for you.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Take the plus three if you can get it. Right now,
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: It's a two and a half for me this game, like,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to touch it. I just want
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: to watch it, enjoy it because I know that the
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: night before I'll need at least twenty four hours to recover.
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: All right, Now we can get into games that we know,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: we can talk about putting in the contest. Yeah, and
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: this first game is just it's testing everything about what
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: we believe and what we are seeing right now. Pittsburgh
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: plus three at Atlanta. We love Pittsburgh, we hate Atlanta.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: We don't know anything about the new coach in this environment.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: Rahuemoris for the Falcons. We love Mike Tomlin.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: Football is our game. Our business is winning.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: We don't like Russell Wilson, we don't like Kirk Cousins,
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to get bet against Mike Tomlin.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Don't forget the short dog in week one. I just
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: read you the stat covering at a very consistent rate
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent since twenty eighteen.
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: You gotta win it.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: That's we got a lot to say about this game.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: But I want to hear your take first instinct.
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the bookmakers.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: I talked to you, Chad, this is another pros verse
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: shows the pros love.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, uh, Pittsburgh here and the public are really
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: heavy on Atlanta and you know, Chat just talk about
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: all the question marks with the Pittsburgh. This number is
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: bumped back up to three. It was down to two
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: and a half. But it's just kind of been all
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: a negative, right, Chat, This whole August kind of felt
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: like it's been negative for this Pittsburgh team.
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Where to me, there's no other guy rather back than Domin.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: When it's all negative, right, He's the best at just
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: canceling out the noise. So the fact that it's his
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: plus three, it's Kirk cousins first game coming off of
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: major surgery on his achilles, going against one of the
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: best pass rush and you know, defense is all football.
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: It's hard not to like Pittsburgh here at plus three.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: But Chad's right, like there's a games across the board
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: that we might like better. But again, if this is Thursday, chat,
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: and we're going plus three and a half with Pittsburgh.
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: That's mighty tempting, my friend, Like, that's really tempting to
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: take that number with this defense, and I know your questions.
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: On offense, I think it's gonna be a light years
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: better than it was last year. Our negative view of
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: them is because their schedule is so brutal down towards
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: the end of the year. Yes, these are this is
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: the fluffy part, Like these are the games that Pittsburgh
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: desperately needs to win.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: I know Tomlin knows.
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: That, so you know, to me, I have a lot
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: more questions right now about Atlanta and what they're gonna be, right,
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: all these new pieces they add to their defense, all
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: these new systems, Like I kind of like Pittsburgh and.
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: A sneaky prop play.
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: I'll give out a couple here and there is Credell
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: Patterson over rushing yards like we even talk about they
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: have some injuries right now. The Pittsburgh to the running
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: back room. Kudel Patterson might be like their number two
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: running back in this game, and that's a great revenge
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: spot for him.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: So, yes, there's a.
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: Lot to love with Pittsburgh.
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: I know it's tough to look at people here, but
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: you're forgetting how great of a defense this Pittsburgh team
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: does have.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Look, when TJ. Watt is playing, it's an entirely different team.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: It's an entirely different team straight up, it's an entirely
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: different team against the spread. He's a game wrecker. We've
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: talked about Miles Garrett as sort of being a guy
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: that bookmakers have to account for when talking about the
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: spread and factoring in if he's playing or if he's
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: not playing, and that could be worth half a point
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: to a point. TJ. Watt doesn't get the same sort
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: of respect from bookmakers and downgrading the Steelers from a
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: point spread point of view, But there is a psychic
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: effect and there is a real on field effect to
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: how this team performs in both categories straight up and
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: against the spread. When he's on and when Mike Tomlin
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: is coaching. You got to take the Steelers and like
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: we've kind of talked ourselves into it that they will
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: be one of these six to seven teams on Thursday.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: I want to hear what the sharp calls are about.
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: But don't forget Mike Tomlin as a dog most profitable
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: coach as an underdog the past twenty years.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: All Right, hit that home dance.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: I know we got a full slate. We have games
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: we really love. This may sneak into it. This will
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: be in the conversation.
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: Not at two and a half, right, but three and
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: a half if we get that extra half point in
• 16:13
  Speaker 3: our contest, Like, how do we not at least have
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: a discussion?
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: All right, Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Miami Dolphins. Right now,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five, the Miami Dolphins are three
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: point favorites. Listen, when I started doing the script yesterday
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: and I was this beautiful day, It's Labor Day, seventy degrees.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I'm sitting on the patio, sitting next to my son.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: He's working on his college essays. We're having like some
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: real good father son bonding and I'm thinking to myself,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to like this game because we don't like
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins at all. We actually are down on the
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Dolphins quite a bit. I think their defense is going
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: to suffer. I think they're lacking a lot of talent
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: on that side of the ball. Wattle, Jalen Wattle, and
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill have not practiced consistently during the preseason. We're
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: not huge fans of two. Uh, we're in on Trevor
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Lawrence twenty two to one to lead the league in
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: passing yardage. Let me give you a stat road underdogs
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: week one one, thirteen ninety six and eight against the
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: spread over the past twenty years, so that's basically covering
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: around sixty percent. Basically teams that did not make the
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: playoffs that are underdogs, those teams are also sixty percent
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: against the spread. So I like the Jacks here.
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's unfortunate. Chat, this was three and a half
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: for three months. Some news came out the Wattle and
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: tyre Kill were a little banged up, so the number
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: dipped down to three two and a half of a
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: couple of books. Now it's settled back into three, even
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: though those guys have been cleared for practice and they're
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: fully practicing.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: But how are we not going to like the Jaguars
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: here right? Half Like the Jaguars.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: They do have a pass rush like we did we
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: talked about during when we're doing win totals, Like they
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: have two guys that can get there. You know, Say
• 18:04
  Speaker 3: what you want about the Jaguars and their weakness in
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: the middle of the field right their linebacker position. But
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: they have some good edge rushers. And we're talking about
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: a Miami team that their offensive line is a weak
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: point for this team. Like, if you're spending all that
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: money on your number one, number two receiver and your quarterback,
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: you're gonna have to go cheap in other areas. And
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: one of the areas they went cheap is offensive line.
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: So the issue here, Chad is weather. Like finally some
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: weather talk, but Miami might have a monsoon for this game.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: And we made a rule a year ago and it's
• 18:35
  Speaker 3: been good to us. We do not ever bet Trevor
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: Lawrence when it's down pouring rain. The guy he fumbles
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: like this is a negative thing.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: Warren Sharp had an amazing article about it that he
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: is one of the most turnover heavy quarterbacks when it
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: comes to fumbling, Like he's just a guy that when
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: the weather is bad, he does have major turnovers. So
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: that to me is a like I was gonna make this.
• 18:55
  Speaker 3: Simon says, I'm not going through just because I don't
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: want you to bet that now, and then me sending
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: out you know, talking on Thursday or some of the
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: tweet out Saturday being like, Okay, the weather is supposed
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: to be terrible, but you know, to me, if we
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: have good weather, we're catching three, three and a half
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: with this Jaguars team, where I have this number at two,
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: So we're getting either a point of value or a
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: full point a half of value. I love the Jaguar especially.
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: We don't even talk about our offensive side, like all
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: their pieces are their offensively, everyone's fully healthy right now
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: on the Jaguars team, where the sam can't be said
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: for Miami. It feels like they're you know, coming in
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: a little banged up into this game. So I'm shocked
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: and someone went back up to three. I thought it
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: for sure it'd stayed down to two and a half.
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: But I'll take the value. I'll take the three on
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: the Jaguars team.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, don't forget the Jags last year of mid season,
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: before Trevor Lawrence got hurt, they were leading the division
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: that was going to be their division, and there there's
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: a different conversation around the Texans if the Jags win
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: that division and Trevor Lawrence doesn't get hurt. So yeah,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: we're gonna take the Jags as long as there's not
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: a monsoon that's you're right. There are very few absolutes
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: in life, Simon. One, you don't eat sushi that's been
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: sitting out for more than forty eight hours.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: I'm a little nauseous. Yeah, that's outrageous.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Two, you don't bet Trevor Lawrence in a month. Soon
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: there you go. Also another absolute some people might have.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: You don't bet on Daniel Jones and the New York
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: Football Giants. Fortunately, that's not one of our absolutes because
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: we have the vikings at the Giants, the Giants one
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: and a half point home underdogs. This is where we
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: start to ask people to do unpopular things.
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, probably give me a contest played people.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you were so excited about it. I couldn't even
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: get the words out of my mouth.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: It's gross.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: I think the only grosser bet on the board might
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: be the Patriots like taking their points again Cincy, which
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: being might also do.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Is this going to be an exec decision of Foxhole?
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: As Simon says, right now.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: I got Simon hasn't. Simon says, in mind, but I'm
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: worried you might steal it, so we can come back
• 21:10
  Speaker 3: to it if I have to. But yeah, this this
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: my view of this game is simple, Like we think
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: the Giants are severely undervalued. This is a team that
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: last year with Tommy de Vido got six wins like
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: Brian Dabel. Just the Hay's gone too far, too far
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: for this this man and this team, Like of all
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: the teams Daniel Jones has had, this to me is
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: the best team he's had. Right, He's got a legit
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: wep on the outside, which neighbors. If we're talking about
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: prop bets, you can get him over fifty five s
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: fifty five for sivien yards and prop bets. That's amazing.
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: His over reception now is five and a half. I
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: think it's plus one thirty. So this is a guy
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: that in just their Preseson game he played one half,
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: he had four catches for fifty yards. Like I feel
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: like they're gonna be forced feed Hi, especially against a
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: terrible secondary like Minnesota has. So there's a lot to
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: love there. And then the biggest one that Chad knows
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: is we're fading. Sam Donald's a row favorite. Like Chad
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: might hit you with these stats again, but historically we
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: make good money here betting against Sam Donald is a
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: road favorite. We always have, we always will and nothing
• 22:14
  Speaker 3: changes here, like at one point this guy and this
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: team will be severely undervalued and that we'll come back
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: on the other side.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Right now, they're a darling to a lot of people.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: Like if I open up the action app, the money,
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: the bets all there right now is on Minnesota on
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: the road. So yeah, I love love the Giants here
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: in this this spot chat, and it's definitely a pick
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: where you gotta hold your nose and take it.
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: This feels like a foxhole, like the money is on them,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: the public is on them. This line, by the way,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: Evan notes Evan Abrams are director of Research Brilliant Director
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: of Research who's a regular part of the show. He
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: notes in the chat that this line was at one
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: and a half by the Giants for one and a
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: half point favorites in May. This line actually recently got
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: down to pick just about I think it was Viking's
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: minus a half. It's good going back up to Vikings
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: minus one and a half. I think there's a couple
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: of things going on. I think number one, I think
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: that people have a little bit of anti bias against
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: the Giants because of what they saw with that team
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: in Hard Knocks during the offseason, and that played heading
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: into the preseason. I think they just don't like the
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: Giants right now. I also think, you know, we have
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: talked about the Vikings. I have made the Vikings my
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: bet for worst record in the NFL this year, fifteen
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: to one. I think after they play the Giants, they
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: could go on a streak where they don't win another
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: game until two months into the year. As an underdog
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: in weeks one and two, dogs of one to six
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: and a half points covers sixty one percent since twenty sixteen.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: That is profitable against the spread every single year the
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: last eight years. I think we're in the Foxhall a Tuesday.
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: Foxhall's do it. Let's climb down into the Foxhole.
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: Foxhole. We're in the Foxhole. You know what else? We're in, Simon,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: At least I am today. I'm in my Tommy John
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: underwear that my wife got me as a gift. Long
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: before Tommy John was our new sponsor or. I was
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: coming to you live from our Tommy John home studio.
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: That's right. If you don't know, Tommy John is like
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: a second skin to me. It is so comfortable. It
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: is the only underwear I can wear around the house.
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: With nothing else on, where my wife and kids don't
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: say Dad, put something on because they're so focused on
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: how nice the underwear is. This is the Joe Burrow
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: of underwear. It is cool, it is comfortable, it never
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: lets you. It's just fantastic. So if you like Simon
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: and I, if you like this show, you'll love Tommy
• 25:10
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  Speaker 1: Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Guys, I am enthusiastically
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: telling you I use this product. I love this product.
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: It is fantastic. We also we had a call with
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: the Tommy John people a couple weeks ago. I loved
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: the Tommy John people. They were enthusiastic about our enthusiasm.
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: I want everyone to enjoy themselves in Tommy John. All right,
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: let's get you like how excited I have about this
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Tommy John right, all right, now, we got to talk
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: about something that I'm a little less excited about. Titan's
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: at Bears. We've had a couple of lines move just
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: this morning. That's how you know, we're into the week.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Is the Titans at the Bears was at four and
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: a half yesterday when I was doing my notes at
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: four this morning now is at three and a half?
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Money coming in on the Titans. For the record, I
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: know you and I both bet the Titans at plus
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: four and a half a while ago. I like it
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: less at three and a half. And if that's the contest,
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: it falls a little bit out of range for me
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: because I think we'll find some better numbers. But I
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: don't hate the Titans here.
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and jokes on me.
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: I actually bought out of my four and a half
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: position chat like two weeks ago on that woe because
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: I just I've come around in Chicago, like I like
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: this team and I think it's all about matchups with them.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: Like if Titans had an incredible run blocking scheam, I'd
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: be on them because to me, that's going to be
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: your team's weakness. Like teams I can run the ball,
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: control the clock. That's going to be the weakness for
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: the Bears, right Keeping Williams out of a rhythm and
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: then not attacking your secondary. Your secondary is to me,
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: the best part of your defense. Like you guys, you
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: got incredible players at the corner position.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: What does this team want to do?
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: Tennessee wants to push the ball downfield and they're historically
• 27:06
  Speaker 3: what we've seen from will Levis is an inconsistent guy
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: who you know, he gets flustered if it's third and eight.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Instead of trying to get those eight yards, he's trying
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: to get fifteen twenty yards. He's gonna fail doing that
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: against his Bears team. Chat so me, I'll wait now,
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: like I was gonna bet this at four and a half,
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: maybe the pros will keep hitting this and I'll get
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: a three and again I could get sharp calls on this.
• 27:26
  Speaker 3: And maybe I'm totally reading this wrong or wrong, but
• 27:29
  Speaker 3: I like the Bears here. Like to me, this isn't
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: a position to fade them. If you if you wanted
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: to talk me in to maybe fade them the first half,
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: that to me would make more sense, right.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: I know, KiB william says he doesn't get nervous. Yeah
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: you do.
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: Everyone gets nervous, even you know guys who say they're
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: the coolest coolcom dude.
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: Ever. It's gonna be different.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: He's gonna be walking on that field and how's he
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: not gonna feel the waight of the city on him, right,
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: That's that's gonna be an incredible moment for him.
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: It's a dream of his right.
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: He's gonna be run out of that tunnel to be
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: a starting quarterback in this league. So if you want
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: to talk to me in to taking Tennessee first half,
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: I get it. But full game, even if this is
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: three and a half, who goes back up to four?
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: I'mna be taking Chicago. I just like this matchup for them.
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: I'm not saying, Chad, they're gonna blow them out here
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: in Chicago is going to be the most annoying fan
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: base of Week one, but I could see them rolling
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: like just defensively, they matchup great offensively as well.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Not trying to get too far ahead of it, but.
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: If this gets down to three and this is two
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: and a half, in contest, Chad, this this is easily
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: to to be the favorite we put.
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: In Chicago, Chicago at the title in town Chicago, Chicago,
• 28:37
  Speaker 4: I will show you around.
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: I love it.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: You discussed me literally since May. You've been telling me,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: don't get too excited about the Bears, don't put your
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: season one reason Bears had on We've talked about this
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: game so much we've talked about the Titans. I will
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: take take issue with one thing you said, we don't
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: really know what the Titans run blocking scheme is going
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: to be. I don't take that much away from what
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: we see in three preseason games. What I will tell
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: you is that, to me, one of the most interesting,
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: underrated and potentially important moves in the offseason from a
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: coaching point of view was Brian Callahan, who had been
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator for the Beankals, not the play caller,
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: but the offensive coordinator, new head coach for the Tennessee Titans.
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: One of the first hires he made his father, Bill Callahan.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: For those who don't know, Bill Callahan, is one of
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the most respected offensive line coaches in the history of
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: the NFL. Everywhere he has gone as an offensive line coach,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: his teams have dominated the run game, most recently in Cleveland.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: Remember how often Cleveland was without Nick Chubb and how
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: often their running game continue to dominate. So I do
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: think there are going to be ways that they are
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: going to take advantage of the Bears weakness as a
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: run defense. I agree with you about their secondary. Their
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: secondary flies of the ball, and they're great, but there
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: are going to be opportunities and I don't think they're
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: going to want to put the ball in We'll and
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Will Levis's hands. He's my you know, early in the season,
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: in this opportunity at home field for against the Bears
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: in Chicago. So I still like the Times four and
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: a half. I'm not buying out. I'm not afraid. I'm
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: not afraid.
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: Then you cannot be gloating any your next Tuesday. I
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: don't want to see any gloating by you next Tuesday, Simon.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I don't gloat. Yeah, right night, listen. It's my team,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: but I'm not on the team. What do I get
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: if they win? I don't get anything. All right, Another
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: line that's moving, and it's moved a bit since even yesterday.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: Carolina at New Orleans. New Orleans was four and a half.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: We've been hyping up the Carolina Panthers four months. You
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: haven't a non natural allegiance to losers. It's not like you.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: We did a preseason futures version of Convince Me our
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: show on Sunday mornings live at eleven am, Action Network
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: YouTube and in the Action Network app me You, Chris Raybond,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: Sean Crooner. The Panthers were basically in every segment some
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: combination of the Panthers and betting their overwin total whatever
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: it is, was constant. I bet the Panthers at four
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think the Saints are terrible. This
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: is going to be in our contest. Would you like
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: the floor to choose it for any other topical themed
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: named bet today? No.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: I love this and I just want the season to
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: start so we can get a good number here. Because
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: this was five and a half. We talked about it
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: in May, and like you said, there's some books now
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: showing three and a half. Chat so this this a
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: pro game. The pros are gonna come in on this one.
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: There's so many games across the board. Why would anyone
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: bet this game?
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: Like to me, that's that's why I love these kind
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: of games where it's just gonna be basically.
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Pros versus pros.
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: There's some pros that are dugging on the Saints and
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: they think this team could win this division.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: They're better than people realize.
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: And those other pros like us who we love Carolina
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: like we just like you said, we've we've been talking
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: about Chris has been talking about it. Brandon Anderson's been
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: talking about like, we like the Panthers this year and
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: this this starts right here like money money line round Robin.
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: People knew, you know, three months ago this was gonna
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: be on money on a round Robert for us.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: We just love this Panthers team.
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: So looking at the matchups, you know, there are some
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: things that Saints could do to attack this team. Like
• 32:37
  Speaker 3: Chris Olave, if you want to take his prop is
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: over receiving yards. Totally get it. The Panthers might have
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: one of the worst secondaries in all of football. But offensively,
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know how the Saints are gonna be able
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: to stop this Panthers team. I know that sounds weird
• 32:51
  Speaker 3: coming off last year, but oh it.
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Sounds weird as soon as he said that.
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: I know the Panthers they're going to be different than
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: when people are used to seeing last year, Like last
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: year they try to run a traditional standard offense, or
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: this year, I think we see a lot more four
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: wide out, five white out sets. Chat like this is
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: gonna be a team that's gonna spread it out and
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: they're really gonna run a West Coast offense. They're gonna
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: just dink and dunk on you and cut you a
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: thousand times. And this is a team that's still being
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: slept on. Like this number. I have it at three,
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: so now it's getting more closer to what it should be.
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: But like Chad just said, well, I'm looking at a
• 33:23
  Speaker 3: book right now, this is still four and a half.
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: So why would you not go get that four and
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: a half? You can still get it? Like this is
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: just this team's not as bad as we perceive. And
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're gonna get blown out in this
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: opening week. Mean chat might be sending you a dun
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: Tats next Tuesday for love and this Panthers team so much,
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: but it is week one. We're not gonna react to it.
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: This is a divisional game. It's these things can't get
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: a little wonky. But I do feel very confident comfortable
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: taking this number. And mean Chat might have to lock
• 33:49
  Speaker 3: in our contest today just so we can get a
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: four and a half on this Panthers number.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're gonna we will lock in some picks. They
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: won't be our official picks, but you know these numbers
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: in the contest favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com go sign up.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: It's so much fun. Simon and I can't win the money,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: but you still we still want to beat all of you,
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: and we take a lot of pride and in where
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: we are finishing in this contest. We will lock in
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: some games today. I'm just going to say it right now,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Panthers are my executive decision. Wow by boom.
• 34:20
  Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible?
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: Are you heavy?
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: Honors text acute executive decision. Look, we talked about the
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: heavy on the dogs. Right now we got to start
• 34:33
  Speaker 5: find it some favorites here disgusting.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Look, we talked about the trends, the non playoff dogs
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: in week one trend. We talked about the short dog
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: in week one, Division underdogs in week one since two
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: thousand to seventy one percent covering the spread by nearly
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: five points per game. Okay, all that is great. All
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: that is great. All of it supports betting the Panthers
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: even if we weren't higher on the Panthers. And I
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: do think this might be the best time to get
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: value on the Panthers because if they do win this week,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: then that's gonna change in the week's going forward. And
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: now this is where we get to bash Dennis Allen
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: because we hate Dennis Allen.
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: Can we get serious now?
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: We think Dennis Allen is a horrible, horrible, horrible coach.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: We cannot figure out why the Saints hired him, what
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: he has brought to the table to keep his job okay.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: In his coaching career, he's twenty four and forty six
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: straight up worst among all active head coaches. In five
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: years and seventy games of coaching, he is twenty two
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: games below five hundred, the only coaches since two thousand
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: two realignment to have seventy games or less under their
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: belt and be twenty two games below five hundred. Dennis Allen,
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: frich Shermer, Hugh Jaction, Steve Spagnolo, and Gus Bradley as
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: a favorite, Dennis Allen eight six team and one that
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: includes one to seven and one as a favorite in
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: his team's first four games of this season. And then
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: there's Derek Carr, who, by the way, is ranked one
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty fifth of one hundred and sixty six
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks against the spread, ahead of only Matt Ryan since
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: two thousand four. Team. This is also a game where
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: I feel like the stakes are huge for us. We
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: have been talking about the Panthers so much it has
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: to be one of our name brand bets. Executive decision,
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: Don't overreact like Chad. Though it's just week one.
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna love the Panthers throughout the season. I think
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: I'm with you. It definitely would hurt and be a
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: little bit embarrassed. I think, to me, my biggest game,
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: especially money wise, deciding fact there, it's gonna be that
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: Giants Vikings game. Like, I have so much investment on
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: the Vikings just being bad. That's the kind of game
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: they lose that game win to on my drop to five,
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: five and a half, four and a half. That's a
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: huge game in that Vikings number.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: Well, look, we've now we've identified the foxhole, we've identified
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the exact decision. We still got. Assignmon says, we will,
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: by the way, go over your biggest bets on Thursday.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: We got right now, no favorites on our list right now.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh plus three, Jags plus three, Giants plus one and
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: a half, Carolina plus four. Okay, Arizona at Buffalo Buffalo
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: is a six point favorite. You love the Cardinals. Yeah,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: I feel like the Cardinals have basically become the public
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: darling for everybody who's following football. They love Kyler Murray,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: they love Marvin Harrison Junior. They're hopeful this defense is better.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: We saw some flash of life last year and a
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: couple of big games for them. They have all the stats,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: all the trends, everything we've talked about fits them. Are
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: we sucker at this point?
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: I'm definitely worried about the being a public dog. But
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: I've talked to a few bookmakers over the last couple
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: of weeks, and the Bills are one of the most
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: teased teams in all football. Like the Bills Cincinnati teaser.
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: If one of these legs gets broken, that's gonna be
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: a huge winner for the sports books because that's that's
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: one of the most teased games right now. Are those
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: two teams together? People just love the Bengals obviously. You know,
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: people still have doubts about Arizona. The biggest doubt is
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: their defense, and it's Josh Allen. Like Josh Allen, he's
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: just like Mahomes. He's not dead, like you got to
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: put ten bullets into his head to really kill the guy.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: Like he just keeps fighting even when he loses games.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: He only loses by a couple of points. Right, he
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: never gets blown out. That's why you know me and
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: you have so much respect for Josh. I think us
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: questioning them here is warranted though, right, Like, they have
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: a lot of moving pieces, they have a new identity.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: They're gonna be a run for his team.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Is Josh gonna be more selective with his passing? Is
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: he still going to have those red zone turnovers that's
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: kind of plagued his career for so many years now,
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: It's like we have a lot of those questions with Arizona.
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of reasons why we love.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: Them, Chad, Like they're this fun new, up and coming
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: team with a bunch of young, new talent that you know,
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: the Bills didn't reload like this like one other time
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: in all football. Is like a receiver being taken in
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: the top five with a quarterback that was a number
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: one pick and what happened Jamar Chase had like a thousand,
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: three hundred yards and what thirteen touchdowns? So the bar
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: has been set very high from Marvin Ayerson. If we
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: if we bet this sad, we're kind of betting on
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: him to show up, right, Like, that's the only way
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: they can cover and kind of stay in this game
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: is if he shows up. So we're really heavy on
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: the dogs, right. I didn't realize we were so heavy
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: until we started talking here. I do have some coverage
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: coming up, don't worry people, But this number was seven
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: seven and a half. The pros have clear to come
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: in and some books he's down to five and a half.
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: So if we're still getting six six and a half
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: in contest, that's a pretty good number against the Again,
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: a team the Bills that we have a lot of
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: question marks.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: It feels like we're always gonna.
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: Have opportunity for the backtory or with Kyler Murray, like
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: it's just the Bills defense isn't what he used to
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: be as well.
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: So you're you're right.
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: This is a team that back to back, going from
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: Carolina to them. These are two teams I really love
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: and have high hopes for, so it's kind of hard
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: not to not to take this one.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: I just love this number.
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: I'm riding with you on this one. I hear what
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: everybody is saying. There are a couple teams, especially in
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: the NFC West. I think you're high on Seattle, You're
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: high in Arizona. I have not been able to wrap
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: my head around either of those teams yet. But I'm
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: with you. I'm with you. You're my ride or die. So
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: this ends up in the contest. I'm with you one
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: hundred percent. The Cincinnati Bengals ended their season the same
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: way that they started it, with a.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Die hard commitment. The Bengals battle tenaciously.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Pats at Cincy, New England at Cincinnati. Look, Cincinnati, We've
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: been talking about all off season, and we've been so
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: hopeful for this team. We've been so hopeful that this
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: is you know, Joe Burrow ends up being Patrick Mahomes kryptonite,
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: and that we got the Bengals around eighteen to one,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: twenty to one to win the Super Bowl before their
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: odds have shrunk to about thirteen to one. I do
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden have concerns like Jamar Chase is
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: just fucking this whole thing up right. The Bengals finally
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: have Joe Burrow in camp, practicing for the first time
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: in years after having so many injuries and missing camp.
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: That leads to a very slow start for this team,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: and every win is going to count for them in
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: a really hard division. And now Jamar Chase is doing
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: this hold in where you never know if he's going
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: to show up. We don't know if he's going to practice,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: and now we don't even know if he's going to
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: play this week. So I am a little bummed right now,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: and it makes me want to take the Patriots with
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: a veteran quarterback who we kind of trust because it's
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: a big number, but I don't want to do it.
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: Do it.
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: I don't want to do it.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, we probably won't force it, and even though we
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: probably should, because this is this is like you said,
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: this is nobody. Nobody is betting this Patriots team. I
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: think when they announced Brissette was gonna be the starter,
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: or dropped to eight and then quickly went right back
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: up to nine at most books. So yeah, look looking
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: at a team that just every week the books are
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: going to need and we're probably gonna be get a
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: point or to a value. I'm not gonna be a
• 42:20
  Speaker 3: sucker like I was last with Carolina. Like I'm not
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: going to just keep betting these teams because that you know,
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: my model has this as two three points of value,
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: where right here I do like I think this number
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: should be lower closer to seven and a half, it's
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: all way up to nine. Like that's that's that really
• 42:35
  Speaker 3: is crazy for week one for a number being this big,
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: especially where you know the Patriots, as bad as they
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: might be, we have some questions right.
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: About since and that I think you touched on a
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: little bit.
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: We also have questions about their defense right now, like
• 42:48
  Speaker 3: they're not going to be this, you know, juggering out
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: of a defense either. So that's a lot of point
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: for a defense that seems a little suspect to me.
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: But you're right, Yeah, there's other dogs I like better.
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: So as we say around two, we'll be passing on
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: this one for now.
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: A dog that we like a lot, Indianapolis Colts at
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: home plus two and a half hosting the Houston Texans.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know how this one doesn't make it in
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: I know it, you know it. Division dogs seventy one
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: percent in week one since twenty fourteen. I said that
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: when we were talking about the Panthers Division home dogs
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: twenty five thirteen, the past twenty years, nine and two
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: since twenty eighteen. Look, we are high on the Colts.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: We're high on Anthony Richardson. We think he's the real deal.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: We love Shane Steichn. We love the Colts largely because
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: of what we saw him do with Gardner Minshew in
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: that team last year. Give me the Colts plus two
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: and a half. Put it in the contest.
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Let's go, Simon says. When Simon says, do it, we do.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: What Simon says, Simon says.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: I know where you're going to take a chat now.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I knew you wanted this one week scheme four
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: months so I knew you wanted this one.
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's we respect. We like Houston.
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: What was Houston's weakness last year was going on the road.
• 44:12
  Speaker 3: I don't know if that's changed. What was another one
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: of their weaknesses playing against the Colts who played them
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: really tough with Gardon Minshew. Now we have our guy back,
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson, which I love. Alburne's panicking because he had,
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: you know, a rough go in the preseason. It's just
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: like it's the preseason. They're trying to work kinks out.
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: It was his first active game and you know, months
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: since he had been injured. So I'm excited about this chat.
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping it.
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: Gets the three like this to me man, every like
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: I don't know, Sam, I've talked in the last two weeks. Chad,
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: this is the most most bed side of any side.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not getting it. I don't think it's getting
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: to three because I think the book makers know the
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: second it gets to three, the wise guys are buying
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: it back.
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: That is again, all books are not great equally. Some
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: books need the pro money on the other side. You know,
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: they got to cut down that liability. That's why I'm
• 45:05
  Speaker 3: hoping they'll you know, I'll get a couple of calls
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: or a couple of texts, Hey, we're going to three
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: in the next hour. Do you want some of this action?
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: Like that's that's literally how I make my living, Chad.
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: These they reach out. I play the other side and
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: we kind of help help them weight the books down.
• 45:17
  Speaker 3: So this is gonna keep going up, you know it is, Chad.
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: Ninety percent of the sports betters had not placed their
• 45:24
  Speaker 3: first bet yet. They will come Friday afternoon. Like that's
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: literally when the rush starts Friday into Sunday at one o'clock.
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: So you know, I have faith we might get that three.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: I'm taking the two and a half right now because
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: what you just said, we're not the only ones that
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: know all these trends, and the pros will eventually be impatient,
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: like they want to lock their money up early in
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: the week.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: They don't want to be going.
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: With the sportsbooks Friday, Saturday or Sunday, like this is
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: their kind of time to get the money in, so
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: grabbing it now just in case it does dip down.
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: But we love this game so much, Like I just
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: not only do I love the matchups, I just love
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: the idea of no one's in this cold steam of chance,
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: right everyone's kind of them out where. It's just they're
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: not that far away from Houston. Like Great talked about
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: if Anthony Richardson does take that year two step. This
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: kid has all the tools, like he is so incredibly gifted.
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: This year with him is reps, Like the kid didn't
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: have enough reps in college. You got her last year,
• 46:18
  Speaker 3: Like just not enough reps. So understands people's hesitation here,
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: But I'm hoping they just play the numbers and the
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: trends where you're just giving out here. It's like these
• 46:27
  Speaker 3: first two weeks, I'm very heavy on trends Week one
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: and two, Like there's plenty of trends you'll see next week.
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: That are moneymakers, like we bet them long term and
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: we will make money off it. Now, you know, I
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: had a couple of reach out there, like, well, you
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: told us to blindly bet this divisional home dog in
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: this spot, and I did it last year with the
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: Giants and we lost forty and nothing to the Cowboys. Guys,
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: there's no one hundred percent hit right here. Okay, there's
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: always going to be El's like, that's just how it is.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: That's that's kind of why we call it gambling. Chad
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: just told you it's seventy percent, So okay, you have
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: a twenty nine percent chance of this not hitting.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Take those odds and run with it.
• 47:01
  Speaker 3: It's like, this is such a good number, especially now
• 47:03
  Speaker 3: that we're getting closer to that three and we already
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: talked about I love two and a half because two
• 47:07
  Speaker 3: and a half is such a key number. Now we
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: see it time and time again. The extra point is
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: no guaranteed anymore. So Yeah, Simon says, two and a
• 47:14
  Speaker 3: half give me the Colts.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, people need to remember we look at these trends,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: and trends are huge. In the first two weeks of
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: the year. You need to start to see what these
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: teams are like.
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: You got it, because no one knows what these teams
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: are like. Right.
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: But also to your point, some of these trends fifty four,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: fifty eight, sixty, it still means four out of ten times,
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: four and a half out of ten times.
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the dream.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: You're still losing. But you got to bet at all
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: ten times in order to take advantage of that. That's why,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: that's why you do it. So you just said the
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: colts were Simon says, I just want to I really
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: want to emphasize this right now. The three picks that
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: we've said we love that will most certainly end up
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: in the contest. And we haven't gotten to wear big
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: balls yet, but we will on Thursday.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: Don't worry, I got favorites coming chat, don't you.
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: Wis plus two and a half. Uh, Panthers plus four
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: is the exec decision the New York Giants plus one
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. So reminder, if you think no more,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: we're we're telegraphing what we're putting in our context. This
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: is your chance to prove it that you know more
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: than we do. We love it. The Favorites Contest The
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: Contest presented by bet three six five Minutes Back. It's
• 48:33
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• 48:35
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• 49:01
  Speaker 1: Favorites that Actionnetwork dot Com Denver at Seattle.
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: On at Denver, Broncoast.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Seattle minus six. I don't have a feel for this game.
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: You've liked both teams. I don't need to get ahead
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: of the market on both teams. I feel like you're
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: gonna tell me take the Seahawks.
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not gonna try. I'm trying not to overthink
• 49:25
  Speaker 3: this one, Chad. I'm gonna take Seahawks here. I know I,
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: me and you are both down on them just because
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: their offensive line is what thirtyth thirty first ranked in
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: the league. But the hope is here when you go
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: against a defense as bad as Denver, that don't matter,
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: right Denver. I think they are great as a twenty
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: ninth defense head into the season and across the board offensively, Sure,
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: we're excited for bow This is a really tough spot
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: to be your first start against the twelfth man and
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: a d the new head coach is what we think,
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: one of the best defensive minds in all football. So
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: you know, Mike McDonald comes in here and it's it's
• 50:01
  Speaker 3: gonna take a year. From what I've read and what
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: I've heard from people that really have to know, it's
• 50:05
  Speaker 3: gonna take a year for the Seattle defense to really
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: figure out his defensive scheme.
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: Apparently it is tough, but you know they're gonna be prepared,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: and especially for a team like this where you know
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: Sean Payne's not trying to reinvent the wheel. His offense
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: is incredibly simple.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: For bone Nicks, it's all about how accurate and all
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: the time can Bonicks be. I think with all the
• 50:25
  Speaker 3: disguise and the Seahawks will throw it him and all
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: the different looks.
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: They'll be able to rattle this kid.
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: And you know that's why this number is so Hi,
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: I've got a couple people ask about this game, because
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: this is another game that's really heavily teased. I said,
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: I don't mind teasing the Seattle down, like I really
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: honestly don't, just because I like this spot for this team,
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: against this rookie quarterback on the road, and Evan gave
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: us an amazing stat. This is why I'm not going
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: to make this one of our five. The books have
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: kind of built it into it, right. I think his
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: stat was basically against the spread, rookie quarterbacks making their
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: first roun on the road, They're twelve to thirteen against
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: the spread. Where they struggle is on the money line.
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: I just do not win in these spots. So this
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: this to meet you out. Instead of being a contest game,
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: this is a fun teaser game, Like this is a
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: game I'm definitely gonna throw on with teasers. We've already
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: given you a bunch of great dogs with key numbers.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: You can tease the Panthers one if it's four and
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: a half, you tease at six points. That's ten and
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: a half. Like, that's a great teaser numbers. So same
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: goes with Seattle here. I just I can't see Seattle
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: losing this home opener at home against a rookie quarterback.
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: The Raiders at the Chargers. The Chargers are minus three.
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: This is one that's interesting to me. You love the Raiders, Rose,
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: you love the Raiders. The pros love the Raiders. Yeah,
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: right now, seventy percent of the money is on the Raiders.
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: Damn.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Friends love the Raiders. The division dogs, the short dogs,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: the non playoff teams, fading small favorites, all of it
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: loves the Raiders. I'm not a Raiders believer like you are.
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: In fact, I probably have more faith than Jim Harbaugh. Yeah,
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: I don't think this makes our final five.
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: No, because of three and a half gone, and I
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: did look in our contests. I believe it was two
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: and a half, and I did love the three and
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: a half. But you're right, like, we have so many
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: other dogs right now. I honestly like them better than
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: this one.
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: But this is the start.
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: Like, maybe I can convince you to throw in our
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: money line around Robin, because this, to me is like,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: not that this dictates these two team seasons, but it
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: feels like it's going to dictate a lot of people's perceptions.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: And this is another game where it's like, the reason
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: I want to put the Raiders in this one because
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: this wouldn't be the worst thing the Raiders did lose
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: this one, because I would get amazing value on them
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: next week, which is like kind of where I want
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: to take them anyway, because this is a tough spot
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: right on the road here making this start, even though
• 52:37
  Speaker 3: there should be more Raider fans right this is kind
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: of a homecoming from going back to LA But like
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: you just said, it's it's horrible, like this is going
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: to be a totally new identity. We have no idea
• 52:48
  Speaker 3: what this Chargers team is about to look like. And
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: that's the scary thing is we're truly betting the unknown
• 52:52
  Speaker 3: trying to.
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: Go against it here, Chad. So I'm with you on it.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: It's like I'm happy waiting see especially the fact.
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: That you know it was three and a half for
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: three months and now it's gone as at three and
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: I just don't think it's gona get back to three
• 53:03
  Speaker 3: and a half.
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: So I'm with you. I'll pass on this one.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Why would we put the Raiders in the contest when
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: we can put the Giants or the Panthers, or the
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Cardinals or the Colts or you know, the Jaguars or
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: the Steelers or anybody else like that. So why risk
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: it with the Raiders. We have so many sure things.
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Dallas at Cleveland Cleveland minus two and a half. In
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: my heart, I want to bet the Browns as a
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: short home favorite. The Browns defense was the most dominant
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: home defense in NFL history. The Cowboys offense one of
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: the most prolific in a generation. I think the Browns
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: QB a suspect. I think the Cowboys coaches suspect. I
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: think we have a full slate to choose from. I
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: feel like all the trends back Dallas, but I think
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: the roster might back in the situation, might back the Browns.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: Kind of a pass for me.
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: I love Dallas here, I love Dallas.
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: Kidding me, I was hoping he was going to get
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: the three, but I don't think it's gonna get there.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just all right.
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: It was functioning on Dallas the whole offseason, like their
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: owner as a joke, Dak Prescott. The deal didn't get
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: worked out. This dude's playing on a one year deal.
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: I get all the hate and everything like that, but
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: we're talking just on field. Deshaun Watson's played what ten
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: games and four years? Chat, I mean, what are we
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: talking about? I mean, I don't even how many games
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: he's played. This guy he has not played at all.
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: And when you see footage of him, he's just not
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: throwing it right. Like even when they're practicing against air,
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: which all in rhythm throws, it's supposed to be very simple,
• 54:43
  Speaker 3: his throws are still ugly, still hitting guys in the feet,
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: still throwing too high. It's like I've been watching film
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: with him for a month now, just because his injuries
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: to his arm is a big deal, Like that's a
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: big deal and it's their throwing shoulder. So you know,
• 54:59
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, Chad, Like if I can't get you
• 55:02
  Speaker 3: there on Dallas, I totally get it, just because again
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: we are so dog heavy, but Dallas is getting too
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: much hate. Like Brown's defense at home last year was incredible?
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: Does that translate back to back seasons? That was kind
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: of an anomaly, Like that was just pure randomness that
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: does stuff doesn't really carry weight season this season, especially
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: when you look at the quarterbacks they face, Like this
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: is a great spot for Dak because we said all
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: the time Dak regular season. We love him like Dak
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: in regular season is good to us. He covers for us,
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: especially at home against bad teams. He covers big even
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: on the road in these kind of spots. He's not
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: that terrible, especially as a dog. So maybe I'll hit
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: up Evan trying to get some ATS numbers to back
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: it up. But I feel like we bet him usually
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: in this spot, Dek like the hate's gone too far, Like.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: This should be what it was.
• 55:50
  Speaker 3: This was a pick and when CD held out, I
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: was like, okay, move it up another point and a half,
• 55:56
  Speaker 3: two and a half points, Like and Brown's Offecha just
• 56:01
  Speaker 3: said they lost their savior on the offensive line. Their
• 56:04
  Speaker 3: best offensive line coach is now in Tennessee. They have
• 56:07
  Speaker 3: injuries all across their offensive line. They're literally placing guys
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: in and out there.
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: So man, there's.
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: A lot of questions, a lot of questions about this
• 56:19
  Speaker 3: Browns team. That's why I'm I'm willing to take this
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: two and a half. I just think the hate is
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: carried over from the summer. It's the futures market, all
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: this stuff that's all done with, Like we're talking just
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: this season. I would take Dak here maybe late in
• 56:32
  Speaker 3: the season. I would not take that in this situation,
• 56:35
  Speaker 3: but right here, I think this is a good number
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: for this Dallas team.
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: All right, well, look, we got to put five in
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: and right now we only got three games that we
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: really freaking hate, so we might as well add the
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: Cowboys to the list. I don't have a strong opinion
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: on it. I kind of want to pass, but I
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: can be convinced based on what you're saying and your
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: decided expertise. Here, Washington at Tampa Bay Temp Bay Buccaneers
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: are three and a half point favorites in this game.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: I know there are trends about rookie quarterbacks going on
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: the road, playing in their first game. It's not good,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: but so many other trends back the Commanders in this spot.
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: The short road underdog, the underdog who was not in
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: the playoffs, that is playing on the road as an underdog.
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: I've mentioned all these already, I think the most important thing,
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: and for people who are new to the show, we
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: talk a lot about the Luck Rankings, which is this
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: formula put together by the Action Analytics team. Sean Kerner,
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: Nick Giffen, Billy Ward and Nick Giffin has been on
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: the show talking about this. I'm not going to go
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: into detail on the formula. You should go to actionnetwork
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: dot com. Look for luck Rankings type type Action Network
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: Luck Rankings in your search bar. It'll come up for
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. All you need to know is that
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: the Bucks were one of the luckiest teams in the
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: NFL last year. The Commanders were one of the most
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: unlucky about in the bottom ten of unlucky situations. The
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: delta for this game will be one of the bigger
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: ones we see in week one. That alone makes me
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: want to bet on the Commanders the Bucks. Look, we
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: are fading the Bucks this year. We are taking there
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: under I know Nick Giffin, he likes them to finish
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: last in the NFC South. If you can find that that,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: this is gonna have to be on the table taking
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: the Commanders.
• 58:36
  Speaker 3: It's fair like it's the same thing with the Miami
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: Jackson gal They might be gained by those same storms
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: And it's like, what am I doing here? Like that's
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: why you know the Jags game. I have a better
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: feel for this one. I feel like a lot of
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: stuff you said, I don't really have a feel for
• 58:48
  Speaker 3: it where it's just like this this of offense for Washington.
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know what they're about to be.
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: Is this really going to be just the Terry McLaurin show,
• 58:58
  Speaker 3: And it's just Jeane Daniel was force feeding him. And
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: I'm happy to sit this one out, like I've I've id,
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: I did bet this one.
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: I did take Washington.
• 59:08
  Speaker 3: I think there were plus four, but I really never
• 59:11
  Speaker 3: thought this would ever be one of our five. It's
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: just like there's some other games I like and I
• 59:14
  Speaker 3: have a feel for. With this one, I really feel
• 59:17
  Speaker 3: like it's a ton of unknown and Chad just nailed.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: It's like I'm so negative and down the bucks. I
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: might be totally missing on them right now. It's just
• 59:24
  Speaker 3: everything I see it's not good, Like I already didn't
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: like them from my model, and then I have Nick
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: Giffen coming in and give me all that luck stuff
• 59:31
  Speaker 3: where it's like it's one of the luckiest teams in
• 59:33
  Speaker 3: all football last year.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: That has to regress.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: So Chad's right, like I probably would still be on Washington.
• 59:40
  Speaker 3: It's just they're down to plus three to a lot
• 59:42
  Speaker 3: of books. Now, that's that's tough. Tough to take that
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: number there, So I'll pass on her for now.
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: All right, two more games left. The Marquee matchups center
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: a football miner football Rams are visiting the Lions, a
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: playoff rematch. Lions or minus three and a half, Simon,
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: I'm going to see you up again. I hope you
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: get this one right. Who is the most profitable quarterback
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: against the spread in Week one over the past twenty years?
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: Well, I thought it was Sean McVeigh. I'm kidding. It's
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: Jared Goff.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: Jared Goff seven and oh against the spread in his opener,
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: four and oh straight up against the spread with the Rams,
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: one and two straight out, three and zero against the
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: spread with the Lions. Who is the most profitable coach
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: against the spread the past five years?
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, is it not Jim Harball?
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: Dude? It's Dan Campbell. I already gave you the answer.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter if you have one ass cheek and
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: three toes, I will beat your wraps numbers.
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Look, we love the Rams. We love Matthew Stafford, we
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: love Sean McVeigh. I really want to bet the Lions.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: Here, me too, I flish.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 3: I'm so sorry to everyone listening, our diehard fans. They
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: probably bet the Rams with me months ago.
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: I flipped.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: I do love the Rams. I have questions about their
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: offensive line. They have injuries, they're trying to fix fix
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: it here head into Week one, and I think Detroit
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: is a pretty damn good d line. Then on top
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 3: of that, they have they have a new kind of
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: a new system here on defense, Like it's gonna be
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: a different look for this Rams team defensively, and I
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: think there couldn't be in a worse spot trying to
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 3: get fixed against this Detroit team.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: So I was I.
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: Wanted to be on the Rams here, and I have
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: flipped on Detroit. They're one of my favorite favorite picks.
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: Obviously.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: Our dream scenario chat is the public to come in
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: or some pros to come in on the Rams and
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 3: we can get this at three. That's why I wouldn't
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: make the Simon says or anything like that. But if
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: we come back on Thursday and this is a three,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: I'm tempted to put it in, brother like, even at
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: three and a half. I don't hate putting in our
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: contest as one of our favorites. So I definitely like
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: this Detroit team in the spot.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: I love when you and I are mind melding so
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: early in this week, you know. Look, it's like, and
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: we went through this in the conference division previews. I've
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: been wanting to find reasons to fade the Rams all
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: off season because yeah, well it's just like it felt
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: like there was too much hype and that the variance
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: on their success is so wide because of the way
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: Dan Campbell coaches. And we saw that in the NFC
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 1: title game, right Like, they're up by double digits in
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: the first half and they lose the game because Dan
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: Campbell always takes the riskier position as a coach, always
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: makes the riskier decision, even if analytically he's making the
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: right call. When those don't pan out, the consequence is massive,
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: and so I feel that eventually catches up with you.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: And so I wanted to and I felt like there
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: was just too much hype, too much glow for the Lions.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: But the problem is it's like a good stock. Their
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: fundamentals are so sound, Their offensive line is so good
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson, and that defensive line is so good. Just
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage, they are as good as anybody,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: if not better than anybody, As two units in the NFL.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: I want to bet them at home. I want to
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: bet Jared Goff, I want to bet on the fundamentals.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Like I just like this team. I feel like it's
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: going to be the one favorite that we end up
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: putting into the contest. We still haven't settled on a
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: big balls and we've already used like the Giants, the Panthers,
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: the Colts as our other bets, so we still have
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: to find the big balls. This could be it on Thursday.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: But that's interesting. I'm glad we both aligned on the Lions.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: All right. Look, Jets at Niners. This moving around too.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: A lot of lines moving this morning, and this one
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: is actually moving in an opposite direction than you and
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: I would think it was three and a half? Was
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: it five and a half in the off season? Yeah,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: got that all the way down yesterday to three and
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: a half some buyback today, I think because of Trent
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Williams is what I would imagine. Go ahead, give your take.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: I know we both agree on this game, so you
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: sort of share with the listeners where your head is at.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think listeners already know all my respect
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: for Trent Williams and how big of a deal is
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 3: the book show it too. They moved the lineup by
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: a point like this, this guy is the best left
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 3: tackle in football.
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: Their line is bad without them. We already talked about it.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: It's like, you know, it doesn't matter all the miracles.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: You can run. You can run a run blocking scheme,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: you get an evention. You guys are be able to
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: go and.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: Pass pro and make blocks.
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: And if you're losing him against team's number one DNS,
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 3: that would have been disastrous. So I'm excited for them
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: to getting the deal done. You know you that was
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: I'm happy got him too, because that's a huge dealt
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: to this team at the end of today.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: I mean you talked about Trium Williams.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: Was the guy, like they had to get the deal done.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: They needed him in the building. Is a little too late,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: like this is this.
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: Is This game is in what five days? Six days?
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: So I know they claimed us me in practice.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: I've been checking social media since we've been here because
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: I want to see him if he's actually out there
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: in pads while we're doing this show.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: But I haven't seen yet. But that's a huge deal,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: Like what has he been up to?
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 3: Like this, this guy who is thirty six just missed
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: all these important reps and you go, well, he's a veteran,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: he probably would't have been doing that many reps anyway,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: he'd been doing mental reps. That is a big deal
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: him not being there like Nick Bosa, who you both respect,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: he said, NFL right till middle of the season. We've
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 3: heard this from other guys who've sat out camp and
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: then come back. It's just different when you've missed all
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: those reps. So for this game, I think I still
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: like the Jets. Like I could easily bottom my position
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: if I wanted to go on the forty nine ers
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: at this point, but like, you know, the Jets in
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 3: this spot obviously, you know I wanted originally, I wanted
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: to be on the forty nine ers. I'm not gonna
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: lie because I just thought the Jets love had gone
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 3: too far and I was like, this is gonna be
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: such a nice spot to buy back going on this team.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: I think Evan gave us that amazing stat about the
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl hangover. Teams just historically struggle in this week
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: one team from the previous year, just because the expectations
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: are that team from that Super Bowl run last year.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: This ain't that team, Like, even if they have a
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 3: lot of the same guys, back. It's so different, especially
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 3: you know, starting a new season. They're looking at They're
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: at the bottom of the mount route, right, I'll looking
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: at the very top. It's like it's totally different mentalities.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 3: So I like the Jets like them at four and
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 3: a half. Will this be one of our five?
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: Maybe? I don't know if I'm like.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: Dak and this just because of Aaron Rodgers factor, right,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: I think me you are at the same page with
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers's like I kind of want to wait and
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: see it, Like I wouldn't mind waiting to see it,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: just because the Aaron Rodgers we all know and love.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, we really haven't seen in three years. Like
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: the last time we saw him play for a season,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: he was bad, and you know.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: Last year we only got four plays.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: Everything I've seen in camp, he looks smooth and looks
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: like the old Rodgers, Like he looks ready. I don't
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: know if I want to make it on my five
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: because of that chat. So I don't know where you're
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: at with that right now, but that would be my
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: biggest hesitation is just Aaron Rodgers against this defense because
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: I feel like we know we're gonna get for the
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: forty nine ers, like they're a Minimum'm gonna put up
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty one points Ken Aaron Rodgers gets that twenty
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: four points that that, to me is the question.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: So I agree with everything you've said. I think that
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: if there is an advantage for the Jets, it's because
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Trent Williams is signing so late in camp. I don't
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: forget Brendon I you signing so late in camp too.
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: I do think that matters. And look that the Niners
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: will get it right. We are massive, Kyle Shannon.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: They're probably gonna be my number one power rated team
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: in four weeks. But I think it's I think it's
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: gonna take it, unbelie.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: I think we get a little bit of value for
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks, and I think it's it's yeah,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: I do think for I think the Jets end up
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: making it. They've got they've got some big balls potential,
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: and for the second year in a row, we're going
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: to have to go into money at football leading the
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: freaking Jets.
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: It's like keep.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: Going up though, Like rapport we just got from Teita,
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: Rapport just reported Trent's in practice practice today. So if
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: you want to wait, people, yeah, let's wait see if
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: it goes up to five. If I've already grabbed the
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 3: four and a half, so I'm already invested here in
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: the Jets. If you want to wait and see if
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 3: it keeps going up, let it, because this is going
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: to be another heavily beat team.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: Like people have the same questions we do.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's Aaron Rodgers on the road in week
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 3: one after he's not looked himself in a long time,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: so easily this number could keep going up.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: By the way, from Evan, that's stat that you just
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: mentioned super Bowl hangover the loser of the Super Bowl
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: since two thousand in Week one the following season ten
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: and fourteen straight up five and nineteen against the.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: Spread, five and nineteen, five.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: And nineteen four and nine against the spread when they
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: are favored by over the field goal. So the Niners.
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: It's not a great trend for the Niners, which is
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: why I feel a little bit take Aaron Rodgers and
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: the Jets and our history with the Jets and meeting
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: the Jets last year to save our opening week in isolation,
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: this is a spot where you back the Jets.
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: I love that still on your mind, that you're still
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: thinking about that last Monday was Zach Wilson.
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: Dude, that's hilarious. I can remember having lunch with a
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: buddy who worked at WWE, and he was leaving Stamford
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: to go back to LA and he and I had
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: lunch that Monday, and I had to drive down to Stamford,
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: which is about ninety minutes from my house, and I'm
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: all I'm thinking about is that we went one in
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: three in the opening week and I'm feeling sick to
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: my stomach, even though Action had had its greatest opening
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: weekend for NFL across every platform ever. And then I
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: got a drive back and I'm listening to Evan and
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: Joe Gallant on the wrap up pod for Monday, and
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to get my head in the game. And
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: all I'm thinking is we need the Jets. And then
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers go down and like I wanted to crawl
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: into a hole, but you know what, it all worked out.
• 1:10:14
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• 1:10:16
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