Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Recession FEAR SKYROCKETS!🔥Crypto Market in Danger!🚨
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: Today we're going to be diving into what these tariffs
- 0:08Speaker 1: are going to do to crypto and this is not
- 0:10Speaker 1: looking good.
- 0:11Speaker 2: Guys.
- 0:11Speaker 1: Let me break it down for you. My name is
- 0:13Speaker 1: Paul Barrel. Welcome back into tech path. Yesterday was a
- 0:16Speaker 1: historic day in the Rose Garden and the amount of
- 0:20Speaker 1: things that are coming out of this scenario in terms
- 0:23Speaker 1: of confusion, this is the only thing that matters, and
- 0:27Speaker 1: that is more connection to people around you that know
- 0:29Speaker 1: what's talking about in this market. Join our telegram group.
- 0:32Speaker 1: It's right down below you guys can get started there.
- 0:35Speaker 1: I want to go over and lead off with this
- 0:37Speaker 1: one post right here. This clip will go down in history.
- 0:41Speaker 1: And this was basically as the tariff announcement was being done,
- 0:45Speaker 1: how much the stock market was being hit. So four
- 0:48Speaker 1: twenty five the S and P, we're trading it around
- 0:51Speaker 1: one point seven higher, four to twenty six Lutny Candida.
- 0:54Speaker 1: The post your outlining reciprocal stock markets started to future
- 0:57Speaker 1: feel filling real time as he read off the Trump's
- 1:01Speaker 1: tariffs by name, and then by four forty two it
- 1:04Speaker 1: had raised two trillion in market cap. So that's one
- 1:07Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five billion in a minute, guys, This
- 1:10Speaker 1: was a big impact, and I think a lot of
- 1:12Speaker 1: people are looking at this and the reversal. You got
- 1:15Speaker 1: to remember that we were closing in on many people
- 1:18Speaker 1: thinking ninety k on bitcoin. As we talked today, bitcoin's
- 1:22Speaker 1: hovering around eighty one thousand, So a big impact. Let
- 1:25Speaker 1: me kind of a rundown on many of the media
- 1:27Speaker 1: responses that happened yesterday. Take a look.
- 1:31Speaker 2: I think you can, for the most part, see it
- 1:33Speaker 2: a discounted reciprocal tariff of thirty four percent.
- 1:36Speaker 3: So is that thirty four percent on top of that
- 1:38Speaker 3: meaning it's a fifty four percent reciprocal tariff on China?
- 1:40Speaker 3: I believe it is okay, you are holding the numbers
- 1:44Speaker 3: that he was saying.
- 1:46Speaker 1: Is that piece of paper accurate to you?
- 1:48Speaker 4: They took the trade deficit for each country and divided
- 1:51Speaker 4: it by the total trade, meaning that any trade deficit
- 1:55Speaker 4: is inherently unfair.
- 1:56Speaker 1: They reversed engineered it to get to the numbers that
- 1:59Speaker 1: they wanted to have a trade deficit with your hairstylist, tice,
- 2:02Speaker 1: Does that mean you need to learn how to style hair? Thanks?
- 2:05Speaker 3: We settled this one hundreds of years ago.
- 2:06Speaker 1: Calling these reciprocal is not We don't know that way anymore.
- 2:10Speaker 3: We're done using that.
- 2:11Speaker 2: Using that because that's just I don't call it a lot. Everybody,
- 2:14Speaker 2: sit back, take a deep breath.
- 2:16Speaker 3: Don't immediately retaliate. If you retaliate, that's how we get escalation,
- 2:21Speaker 3: and then it becomes a full fledged trade war. In
- 2:23Speaker 3: your view, not a trade war depends on the country.
- 2:27Speaker 1: China today announced not only are they going.
- 2:30Speaker 4: To hit back with counter terrafs, but also with an
- 2:32Speaker 4: expanded retaliation toolbox.
- 2:35Speaker 2: Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia. Who look at Cambodia ninety seven percent?
- 2:40Speaker 1: I mean, I have a friend who works at a company.
- 2:42Speaker 5: She had just moved all the production to Cambodia.
- 2:45Speaker 1: And nightmare come true for textile and footwear manufacturers.
- 2:49Speaker 3: I mean European Union.
- 2:51Speaker 4: They hate our beef because our beef is beautiful and
- 2:55Speaker 4: theirs is weak.
- 2:56Speaker 3: So what would you say to people in the auto
- 2:58Speaker 3: industry who are worried about that timeline and how quickly
- 3:01Speaker 3: that can shift by American.
- 3:03Speaker 2: I'm not going to be affected by the tariffs, Cuomo.
- 3:06Speaker 4: I have an American car, and I'll never buying a
- 3:09Speaker 4: foreign car.
- 3:09Speaker 1: I never have and I never will.
- 3:11Speaker 4: How much of the autoparts you use for car repairs
- 3:13Speaker 4: come from outside the US.
- 3:14Speaker 5: I want to say at least ninety percent of them.
- 3:16Speaker 4: Tenure yield trading near its lowest level since October. This
- 3:20Speaker 4: is seen as a flight to safety.
- 3:21Speaker 3: At this point, American companies are and rightly so, paralyzed.
- 3:25Speaker 3: Right now. Here's a live reaction from a Wall Street
- 3:28Speaker 3: executive after the Trump tariffs hit.
- 3:31Speaker 1: Yeah, like we're getting really well conditioned right now. Really shit, Okay,
- 3:38Speaker 1: I get looked at the screen.
- 3:39Speaker 3: I looked at it. You know it got hit when
- 3:41Speaker 3: I think the tariff came out.
- 3:43Speaker 1: Do you plan on having negotiations before that date?
- 3:47Speaker 3: We'll see Canada and Mexico notably missing.
- 3:50Speaker 1: Why is that?
- 3:51Speaker 3: I'm not sure President.
- 3:52Speaker 4: Has mentioned he's willing to even look at things like TikTok.
- 3:56Speaker 3: Well, we haven't started anything yet. Plans for conversations or
- 3:59Speaker 3: a trip to base, nothing eminent. How concerned are.
- 4:03Speaker 5: You how corporate America is feeling at this moment?
- 4:05Speaker 3: Well, it tells me a couple of things. One, we
- 4:07Speaker 3: got to get the tax bill done quickly.
- 4:10Speaker 2: One big beautiful bill. I'd like to name it that
- 4:13Speaker 2: if you can, and it will be that. It'll have everything.
- 4:16Speaker 2: The big tax cuts.
- 4:17Speaker 3: That's going to push the US economy into recession. Could
- 4:21Speaker 3: see Frankel stimulus.
- 4:22Speaker 2: I brought a hat. Would anybody like a hat? All right?
- 4:27Speaker 1: So guys, this was an absolute hijack of what I
- 4:31Speaker 1: think the position of the American people were in putting
- 4:34Speaker 1: Trump in office, and I think they've been double crossed
- 4:37Speaker 1: in this particular case. And this is what's going to
- 4:40Speaker 1: play out now. Is teetering on recession. This could be
- 4:44Speaker 1: could be one of the biggest impacts on the market. Now.
- 4:46Speaker 1: Many people would look at this say, well, maybe this
- 4:49Speaker 1: is the final bottom, because at least we have some
- 4:52Speaker 1: resolution that these are attempted and the only way I
- 4:56Speaker 1: hope is to negotiate these out with each country. People
- 4:59Speaker 1: are looking other ways to a flight to safety, and
- 5:02Speaker 1: many are course looking at gold. Something is wrong even
- 5:05Speaker 1: when gold is down two percent. So this is a
- 5:08Speaker 1: massive flight to the sidelines. And of course that's what
- 5:11Speaker 1: the question is right now is where are you playing
- 5:14Speaker 1: these markets? Breaking ten year Treasury note yield is briefly
- 5:18Speaker 1: dropping four percent for the first time since October. This
- 5:21Speaker 1: is market prices increase recession risks. If the recession risk continues,
- 5:26Speaker 1: and then we see a potential of a new bill
- 5:29Speaker 1: coming through that are going to be corporate tax cuts
- 5:32Speaker 1: for major corporations. This is exactly how and what they
- 5:37Speaker 1: were using these tariffs for is to pay for these
- 5:40Speaker 1: tax cuts to corporations. That is a negative position. I
- 5:44Speaker 1: think that the American people will start to maybe show
- 5:49Speaker 1: and this could definitely give an opening for the Democrats
- 5:52Speaker 1: without a doubt. Folks just don't get at rates are declining.
- 5:55Speaker 1: Besson is a happy man. His north star right now
- 5:58Speaker 1: is the US Treasury yield yeared ten year yield, not
- 6:02Speaker 1: the Fed. And of course tariffs will eventually force the
- 6:05Speaker 1: Fed's hand. That's what everybody's looking at right now. And
- 6:08Speaker 1: if we look at it this way, when you look
- 6:10Speaker 1: at the ten year, which is about to break four percent,
- 6:13Speaker 1: this is a completely different economic outlook going forward from
- 6:18Speaker 1: what it was just thirty days ago. So a huge
- 6:22Speaker 1: impact on the market here was Trump over on Trump's
- 6:26Speaker 1: socials is basically saying the operation is overpatient, lived in
- 6:28Speaker 1: is healing. They know how bad of a hit this
- 6:32Speaker 1: is for him to make these kinds of statements and
- 6:35Speaker 1: more resilient than ever. Yeah, well we're going to have
- 6:37Speaker 1: to be more resilient than ever. Because right now, I
- 6:40Speaker 1: think we are going to see market disarray for quite
- 6:43Speaker 1: some time because many of these companies, many of these
- 6:45Speaker 1: industries probably do not even realize how much this is
- 6:50Speaker 1: going to affect them over the next six to twelve months.
- 6:54Speaker 1: All right, when you look back that tweet, I was
- 6:55Speaker 1: just showing in terms of healing the market. If you
- 6:59Speaker 1: go back to twelve eighteen, and I want to kind
- 7:01Speaker 1: of zoom in on this a little bit for you guys,
- 7:03Speaker 1: this was the period in which Trump initiated the first tariffs,
- 7:07Speaker 1: and I've got a big bullseye right there. So the
- 7:09Speaker 1: market kind of slipped up a little bit. Then we
- 7:11Speaker 1: saw the retraction the period of time that was between
- 7:15Speaker 1: March and December of twenty eighteen, so basically almost nine
- 7:19Speaker 1: months coming in on this in terms of a market
- 7:22Speaker 1: to see the bottom, and of course from there we
- 7:25Speaker 1: had a nice little upswing sideways and then the blow
- 7:28Speaker 1: off top. So this could be a much longer issue
- 7:32Speaker 1: facing the markets right now. And if we get pushed
- 7:35Speaker 1: further because of the macro environment, this is where the
- 7:39Speaker 1: recession possibility could come into play.
- 7:41Speaker 4: Let's go over and.
- 7:42Speaker 1: Take a look at polymarket US recession right now in
- 7:44Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, sliding up right now on the market,
- 7:48Speaker 1: even though it's kind of somewhat holding a position right
- 7:51Speaker 1: now a forty seven percent chance. But if you look
- 7:54Speaker 1: at this back just not too long ago March twenty eighth,
- 7:57Speaker 1: thirty three percent chance considerably increased now in just a
- 8:02Speaker 1: few days. So the question is is how does the
- 8:06Speaker 1: Fed react so fed right now this is a potential
- 8:09Speaker 1: change on the May decision right here, and if you
- 8:13Speaker 1: look at this right now, still no change holding. And
- 8:16Speaker 1: if I think you know, when you look at the
- 8:18Speaker 1: consideration of where this could be related to jobs, because
- 8:22Speaker 1: this is the thing that's going to concern me is
- 8:25Speaker 1: if companies start to understand, because this is something that
- 8:28Speaker 1: companies have been very resilient on is holding the employment side.
- 8:31Speaker 1: If companies start to see this start to impact costs,
- 8:35Speaker 1: maybe we start to see the numbers that Chair Powell
- 8:39Speaker 1: are fearful of, and that is the job numbers to
- 8:41Speaker 1: start to go up in terms of unemployment. So let's
- 8:44Speaker 1: take a look at rate cut opportunity here. Let's go
- 8:47Speaker 1: ahead and kind of highlight on this market now is
- 8:49Speaker 1: pricing in for rate cuts from Jerome Powell, And you
- 8:52Speaker 1: can kind of see this starting to move in. I
- 8:54Speaker 1: think this is where printing will start. With the impact
- 8:58Speaker 1: of what these terroifts are going to do. Now, everybody's
- 9:00Speaker 1: kind of been looking at this is has this been
- 9:02Speaker 1: a planned recession or a planned fall in the market.
- 9:07Speaker 1: The question, I think is they're walking a very tight time.
- 9:11Speaker 1: Rote Artha. Hayes hits on this Trump Terariff's formula further
- 9:14Speaker 1: evidence he has laser focused on reversing these imbalances. A
- 9:17Speaker 1: problem for treasury is that without exports, foreigners can buy bonds.
- 9:21Speaker 1: The FED in the banking system must step up to
- 9:23Speaker 1: ensure treasury markets, which is meaning they're going to have
- 9:28Speaker 1: to print. So if you don't have bonds being purchased
- 9:31Speaker 1: by the international markets, the only way out through this
- 9:35Speaker 1: is going to be through the print FED printing, and
- 9:37Speaker 1: that is monetary easing. And if we see on easing
- 9:41Speaker 1: of the FED, that I think starts to move the
- 9:44Speaker 1: markets in the right direction. The question is how fast
- 9:46Speaker 1: will the FED move? So the real question here is
- 9:49Speaker 1: how our country is going to be dealing with this,
- 9:52Speaker 1: because negotiation is going to be part of this. This
- 9:54Speaker 1: is a clip from the Senate just yesterday on tariffs
- 9:58Speaker 1: on Canada. Take a look.
- 10:00Speaker 5: Well, yesterday we were telling you a little bit about
- 10:03Speaker 5: a move in the Senate to roll back some of
- 10:06Speaker 5: Trump's tariffs on Canada. We can now report that there
- 10:10Speaker 5: are at least four Republicans who are set to join
- 10:12Speaker 5: Democrats in that effort, meaning that this does have enough
- 10:16Speaker 5: votes to pass in the Senate. Now, to be clear,
- 10:19Speaker 5: what they're actually voting on is the emergency powers that
- 10:22Speaker 5: Trump invoked that allowed him to then put those tariffs
- 10:25Speaker 5: onto Canada. And this would need to pass both chambers,
- 10:28Speaker 5: so it's unlikely to actually pass the House much super
- 10:31Speaker 5: climbed than the Senate. But this is going to be
- 10:33Speaker 5: a real test and really the first time that we
- 10:36Speaker 5: are getting Republicans on the record with how they feel
- 10:39Speaker 5: about Tump Trump's tariffs. We expect that vote to be
- 10:42Speaker 5: around seven pm tonight, and we'll definitely be keeping on
- 10:46Speaker 5: top of exactly what those final totals are.
- 10:48Speaker 3: Kelly Emily is it veto proof?
- 10:52Speaker 5: So it is not veto proof. So if this somehow
- 10:55Speaker 5: did get through the House and Trump vetoed it, it
- 10:58Speaker 5: would not be able to get continue. There probably are
- 11:01Speaker 5: not enough votes to actually get that far. And I
- 11:04Speaker 5: can tell you just from conversations that I've had in
- 11:06Speaker 5: the halls. If you don't see a lot more than
- 11:09Speaker 5: these four votes, there are certainly a lot more lawmakers
- 11:11Speaker 5: than that who are very concerned about what this could
- 11:14Speaker 5: mean for their home state.
- 11:15Speaker 1: All right, so you can kind of see there there
- 11:17Speaker 1: is some The big issues here, I think is that
- 11:20Speaker 1: the Republicans are starting to cross the line, meaning they're
- 11:23Speaker 1: starting to look at these tariffs and understand that a
- 11:26Speaker 1: lot of their's constituents, companies, businesses, mom and pop shops,
- 11:29Speaker 1: you name it, are being hit with this. This is
- 11:32Speaker 1: going to cause massive impact on the economy here in
- 11:36Speaker 1: the US, and I think the companies are not going
- 11:38Speaker 1: to set down and take this lightly. They're going to
- 11:40Speaker 1: start putting pressure on their congress people, on their senators,
- 11:43Speaker 1: and this I think will start to change maybe a
- 11:46Speaker 1: little bit of the narrative coming out of DC. Also,
- 11:50Speaker 1: if you look at the Canadian Prime Minister, this is
- 11:52Speaker 1: the new guy, potentially, Carney says Canada will close twenty
- 11:55Speaker 1: five percent tariffs on all vehicles imported from the US.
- 11:58Speaker 1: It's immediately going to hit the United States, including places
- 12:00Speaker 1: like Tesla that will get hit on Canadian Now, granted,
- 12:04Speaker 1: I'm not sure that we sell a lot of cars there,
- 12:06Speaker 1: but still Peter Schiff kind of hits on this Nike
- 12:09Speaker 1: won't build factories for the US because this is where
- 12:11Speaker 1: it comes into the fakery that's being done by the
- 12:13Speaker 1: Trump administration, and that is that by imposing these tariffs
- 12:17Speaker 1: at this level, we're going to push onboarding of companies
- 12:21Speaker 1: and factories back to the United States, when in reality,
- 12:23Speaker 1: these terrors are a underpin of just supporting a tax
- 12:27Speaker 1: cut to the corporations, and what he's talking about is
- 12:30Speaker 1: factories are just going to take it on the chin
- 12:32Speaker 1: and pass this right down to the American public. That
- 12:34Speaker 1: is an issue that I think we will take. Now,
- 12:37Speaker 1: how long does this take effect? Maybe this is three months,
- 12:40Speaker 1: six months, or maybe this is over the next year.
- 12:42Speaker 1: The real question is how long does it last? Bill
- 12:44Speaker 1: Ackerman came in or Ackman came in and said, sometimes
- 12:47Speaker 1: the best strategy in negotiation is convincing the other side
- 12:51Speaker 1: thinks you're crazy. I think they have achieved that in
- 12:55Speaker 1: these negotiations. So the question is what's going to come
- 12:58Speaker 1: out of this. Right now, this is where it gets
- 13:01Speaker 1: a little bit not kosher to me, And this is
- 13:05Speaker 1: where you've got Eric Trump, the son President Trump, already
- 13:08Speaker 1: going out there and putting almost a pr campaign to say, hey,
- 13:12Speaker 1: I wouldn't be the last country to try to negotiate
- 13:14Speaker 1: a deal. It's almost as if they're backing these countries
- 13:18Speaker 1: into a corner. And I think this is where it backfires.
- 13:22Speaker 1: When you're negotiating something, You've got to leave a little
- 13:24Speaker 1: bit of room for these countries to at least say face.
- 13:28Speaker 1: And that is the issue facing us right now. Other
- 13:31Speaker 1: things you got Elon Musk. This is another negative that
- 13:34Speaker 1: of course is going to continue to play out, where
- 13:37Speaker 1: Elon is going to stay in the capacity of running
- 13:40Speaker 1: Doge and possibly continuing to run the other companies that
- 13:44Speaker 1: he's operating. We'll call them companies into the ground if
- 13:48Speaker 1: he doesn't get back to work with Tesla's numbers falling
- 13:50Speaker 1: like crazy, and of course just in President Trump and
- 13:53Speaker 1: Vice President Bukayley to the house discuss ways we can
- 13:56Speaker 1: support each other. Now, this is interesting pro bitcoin but
- 14:01Speaker 1: also I think pro innovation. He might be able to
- 14:04Speaker 1: talk a little sense into Trump, I hope. But the
- 14:07Speaker 1: big thing is is maybe he's there to do a deal,
- 14:10Speaker 1: and that would be in line with negotiation of company
- 14:14Speaker 1: countries starting to basically suck up to Trump, which is
- 14:17Speaker 1: what he wants to be able to do a deal.
- 14:19Speaker 1: And what does it look like on the backside. Here's
- 14:21Speaker 1: Howard Lutnick on what this is going to do to
- 14:24Speaker 1: the dollar. Take a look.
- 14:26Speaker 3: So it is true it's a strategy to weeken the dollar.
- 14:28Speaker 4: It's not a strategy weekend dollar.
- 14:30Speaker 5: This part of the plan.
- 14:31Speaker 3: It's part of the plan.
- 14:31Speaker 1: It is not a plan.
- 14:32Speaker 4: We don't have a plan about the dollar, plan about
- 14:35Speaker 4: American factories. And these are all outcomes of stop manipulating
- 14:39Speaker 4: your stop you manipulating our currency, stop it. And if
- 14:43Speaker 4: that means the dollar because back to where it should
- 14:44Speaker 4: be because you've stopped manipulating it don't makes sense to me.
- 14:49Speaker 2: All right.
- 14:49Speaker 1: So the key there that he just stated one they
- 14:52Speaker 1: didn't have a plan, and two is that it's going
- 14:54Speaker 1: to bring back American countries companies. I think this is
- 14:57Speaker 1: going to be a problem for the re publicans and
- 15:01Speaker 1: also the administration very quickly, because the American voter is
- 15:06Speaker 1: going to expect to see companies and jobs coming back,
- 15:09Speaker 1: and I think we are in a position right now
- 15:11Speaker 1: where jobs are going to start to disappear that will
- 15:13Speaker 1: be an exact opposite of what this administration is trying
- 15:17Speaker 1: to do, and it will have major effects on the market. Now,
- 15:21Speaker 1: with all the bad news, at least there was a
- 15:24Speaker 1: little bit of good news, and that was that the
- 15:26Speaker 1: Financial Services passed, at least through the committee, the stable
- 15:30Speaker 1: Coin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger. This is
- 15:34Speaker 1: stable the stable Coin Act. This is now through the committee.
- 15:37Speaker 1: It's going to be going into vote. Most likely this
- 15:39Speaker 1: will get passed and moving on in terms of stable coin,
- 15:43Speaker 1: which is positive for crypto in general. But of course
- 15:47Speaker 1: the macro environment right now, I think is the number
- 15:49Speaker 1: one thing to keep an eye on. Last upright here,
- 15:52Speaker 1: just to show you who voted against that Stable Act,
- 15:56Speaker 1: let's just zoom in on that because there's some people
- 15:58Speaker 1: that you should know, Ranking Member Waters, Maxine Waters, who
- 16:02Speaker 1: was part of the stable Coin Bill Act last year,
- 16:05Speaker 1: with Patrick mckenry, and then of course you can see
- 16:07Speaker 1: Brad Sherman in there, David Scott. You guys know these
- 16:10Speaker 1: people if they're in your district. There's Sean Casten, the
- 16:13Speaker 1: other guy that not a big fan of Rashida talib
- 16:16Speaker 1: Out of Michigan, Cleo Fields, Bill Foster. These are all
- 16:19Speaker 1: the negative votes, So those are the ones continuing to
- 16:22Speaker 1: suppress innovation again as we start to see this next
- 16:26Speaker 1: technology take place around where blockchain is going to be. Guys,
- 16:30Speaker 1: this is going to be an absolutely crazy week. Stick
- 16:33Speaker 1: around right here. If you're not in the diamond circle,
- 16:35Speaker 1: get in. It's an easy place to get additional updates
- 16:38Speaker 1: from us. Also, subscribe to the channel right now. Hit
- 16:41Speaker 1: that little bell. We'll probably be doing some more live
- 16:43Speaker 1: streams that will give you notification when we put these
- 16:46Speaker 1: shows out and hopefully keep an eye on where this
- 16:49Speaker 1: market is going. This is now D Day for crypto.
- 16:54Speaker 1: I think we have got to face this front on
- 16:56Speaker 1: and look at where these markets are going. Follow me
- 16:59Speaker 1: on X It's at Paul Aaron. We'll catch you next
- 17:00Speaker 1: time right here on Techpath mm hmm