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College Football Bets for Week 11! · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

• 0:01
  What's up guys it is week 11. The first set of rankings have
• 0:07
  come out so now it's about to get serious.
• 0:10
  I am Darren this is a targeting winters a college football
• 0:13
  betting podcast. I am joined by Tim looking like
• 0:16
  a little outdoor set up there. How we doing today?
• 0:19
  Yes. Doing great, enjoying the
• 0:22
  sunshine, sort of. It's a little cloudy, but I
• 0:26
  think next week if I'm stuck down here again, obviously not
• 0:29
  home, there's a little memorial down the road, some kind of
• 0:33
  picnic area with a used Black Hawk helicopter.
• 0:38
  I might just jump in the helicopter and, you know, have
• 0:42
  some fun with that. I mean, everyone needs a hobby.
• 0:44
  I mean, if you know, stealing military helicopters is one of
• 0:48
  them, go for it bro. But you know, as long as you
• 0:52
  have reception from jail, yeah. Have you got jail reception
• 0:55
  where you can at least still come out and give your pick I
• 0:56
  think. You have Wi-Fi there.
• 0:58
  I saw that Cocaine quarterback, he was, he had Wi-Fi in jail.
• 1:02
  So we're good. There you go.
• 1:03
  All good. All right, well, let's get right
• 1:04
  into it. As we mentioned at the top, the
• 1:06
  rankings came out, I believe it was Tuesday night.
• 1:11
  And if you're watching us on YouTube, you see the current
• 1:15
  bracket as it sits after the committee's first rankings are
• 1:18
  done. I took a look at this.
• 1:24
  I don't really get too into the first set of rankings because
• 1:27
  there's a good chance that a lot of this will not look the same
• 1:31
  four or five weeks from now. Did you have any thoughts?
• 1:36
  Did you agree with it? Was there anybody you thought
• 1:38
  was ranked too high that should have been in what?
• 1:41
  What are your first thoughts on these rankings?
• 1:43
  You know, well, rankings in general, as you know, I hate but
• 1:48
  this whole voting thing, but I, I mean, is Memphis really, I
• 1:53
  mean, I know they're the top group of five team, but if we're
• 1:55
  going to limit it to 12 teams and every year they they try to
• 1:59
  nerf it for an SEC team and when it seems like keep changing the
• 2:02
  rules here, but you know, they should probably give that spot
• 2:06
  to somebody else. I mean, I've, I mean, I know
• 2:08
  Memphis looks really good this year, but do they do you really
• 2:11
  think they can beat, you know, Ole Miss or UVA or anybody like
• 2:15
  that? I don't think they can, but.
• 2:18
  No, I agree. We saw it last year when Boise
• 2:21
  came in and SN well, SNU is not a group of five, but we we saw
• 2:25
  they there was not a lot of success from the lesser
• 2:27
  conferences or the board, Boise State for that matter.
• 2:30
  But this is what we got. You're not going to run a group
• 2:35
  of five playoff brackets. So I guess everybody gets a
• 2:38
  chance. Who knows, this could be 16 or
• 2:40
  14 next year. Who the hell knows what they're
• 2:42
  going to do. But personally, I mean, I just
• 2:44
  take a look at, you know, me, I'm a Notre Dame guy.
• 2:47
  I think they're ranked a little too high.
• 2:50
  I don't think they should be at 10.
• 2:53
  I know some people are saying, well, their metrics say that,
• 2:55
  that they're right where they should be.
• 2:58
  But you know, after they went oh, and two, everybody's like
• 3:00
  they went out and they're in. And as we sit here 7-8 weeks
• 3:04
  later, that's that's the same. If they go 10 and two, they're
• 3:07
  going to get it. So, but the one thing I do like
• 3:11
  about the first set of rankings is I kind of look at the teams
• 3:14
  who are just on the outside, like they like teams like 13 to
• 3:17
  18. And I kind of look to play on
• 3:21
  them because I think they know what's ahead of them.
• 3:23
  They know they have to win their next three or four games, depend
• 3:25
  on how many they have. And I think for those teams,
• 3:28
  you're going to get the best effort for the rest of the
• 3:31
  season. So actually one of my picks
• 3:34
  falls in that line of thinking. But yeah, nothing else I really
• 3:38
  disagree with. I last year, sorry about last
• 3:43
  year with the first round of the the playoffs here.
• 3:45
  I I wish I pulled the trigger on it.
• 3:47
  I was going to just bet all four home teams to cover because they
• 3:50
  all did. I'm looking at doing the same
• 3:53
  thing again this year. The only you know, according to
• 3:57
  the the only pause I have here is according to this, Oregon
• 4:00
  would be a road team playing at Texas Tech.
• 4:04
  But other than that, I mean, if it holds like this, I'm I'm
• 4:07
  seeing, you know, just bet Georgia, you know, was that Ole
• 4:12
  Miss bet Notre? Dame not betting BYU man.
• 4:18
  That's. That's one home team you're not
• 4:19
  taking, you're taking the. Oh, yeah, the the other home
• 4:22
  team there, I'll get Notre Dame. I I see the bottom.
• 4:24
  I always assume bottom is the home team.
• 4:26
  Yeah, that's right. Yeah, it's reversed in this one.
• 4:28
  So they got a they got the home teams on the top, on the bottom
• 4:31
  and the top. Yeah, Oh, it's just weird.
• 4:35
  Yeah, it'll all look different next week, so, but well, maybe
• 4:38
  not all of it, but I don't see Ohio State and Indiana losing
• 4:41
  their spots anytime soon. But I don't know.
• 4:44
  But anyway, they're out now. Everybody's going to pay
• 4:46
  attention and bitch and moan for the next four or five weeks.
• 4:48
  We'll hear coaches complaining and plug in for their team to be
• 4:51
  I. Don't want to hear it, I really.
• 4:53
  Don't. Yeah, but you're going to
• 4:54
  because. That's.
• 4:55
  What these coaches are supposed to do?
• 4:57
  When they went to four, I mean, hey, in my eye I'm a Homer, but
• 5:02
  he's the greatest coach of all time, Bobby Bowden said.
• 5:04
  Once you have one and two, who cares about three and four, Who
• 5:07
  cares about 13 through whatever what you got top 12, you can't
• 5:10
  finish in top 12. Shut the hell up.
• 5:11
  I. Don't want to hear you know, You
• 5:13
  know it's all about the mighty dollar and the.
• 5:15
  More Yeah, like none of this has anything to do with making the
• 5:18
  game better or they don't care who really wins.
• 5:21
  They don't care about finding a championship.
• 5:22
  They all just want to make more money.
• 5:23
  And it's a bunch of people that don't care about football at all
• 5:26
  making these decisions. I kind of like the first round.
• 5:29
  I I like that four campuses get to at least host a home game
• 5:33
  that, you know, that means something when the season's
• 5:34
  over. I'm not against that.
• 5:36
  And you know, hey, we're a betting show.
• 5:37
  More games we have to bet at, the happier we are so.
• 5:41
  That's true. Don't hate it.
• 5:43
  Don't know if I want to see it go to 14 or 16, but we don't
• 5:46
  need to be playing college football into March.
• 5:48
  But. Yeah.
• 5:50
  But if it holds through the way it did last year, I think 8's
• 5:53
  the perfect number. I mean, I think so too.
• 5:55
  Last year, 9 through 12 had no business being in the playoffs
• 5:58
  and they showed it. They got worked.
• 5:59
  So. Yeah, we'll see.
• 6:02
  All right. Well, Speaking of getting
• 6:03
  worked, we've been doing some work on winning some games here.
• 6:08
  So if you're new to the channel, thanks for checking us out.
• 6:11
  If you've been watching or listening since the beginning,
• 6:13
  thank you guys as well. We appreciate your loyalty.
• 6:17
  Last Tuesday, you and I are falling in love with these
• 6:20
  YouTube shorts now that we're competent enough to actually
• 6:23
  throw them out there. And from last Tuesday to
• 6:27
  yesterday. Which Tuesday?
• 6:29
  When? The third Friday.
• 6:30
  Sunday when I do it. Yeah, 9 days.
• 6:32
  Yeah. So I I did some math.
• 6:34
  I know you're shocked. I did math.
• 6:36
  Not math, not math. Math.
• 6:38
  Math. That's me.
• 6:39
  I'm. Not in Florida.
• 6:40
  I do the math here. That's fine.
• 6:42
  But if you've been rolling with our picks, dude, I don't know if
• 6:44
  you know this or not. We are 12 and four since last
• 6:47
  Tuesday, spearheaded by Pete's five and O.
• 6:52
  But yeah, exactly because he did GO-5 and O5 consecutive unders.
• 6:58
  So you know, he's, he's in a meeting, he had an emergency
• 7:01
  meeting pop up, probably because he's spending all his money from
• 7:04
  hitting all his unders and he's off to.
• 7:05
  It. And four midweek action worked
• 7:13
  well. We started off.
• 7:16
  What did we have? I gave out Akron -10 1/2.
• 7:19
  I think it went up to like 12 1/2 by kick off.
• 7:20
  They won by like 30 something. So that was that was fun.
• 7:25
  Yesterday you had two bets on the Toledo N Illinois match up.
• 7:28
  You hit Toledo -14 1/2 and be over 41 1/2.
• 7:32
  We don't care of the overall about themselves.
• 7:34
  And then in typical Mac fashion, there was the Ball State, Kent
• 7:39
  State. And I don't really want to get
• 7:41
  into that because. I'm.
• 7:44
  Vomiting about like 3:00 this morning.
• 7:46
  You saw it. God, I'm sorry the three hours
• 7:49
  of your life went to that. I was watching YouTube, had a
• 7:54
  stream because I do have YouTube Tvi can watch it, but somebody
• 7:56
  was streaming it on YouTube for me.
• 8:01
  Just awful. I don't know if you watched it
• 8:05
  on YouTube, it's basically like neither team was wanted to try
• 8:11
  to find other school win. Just awful bad time management
• 8:17
  from the Kent State coach who just got the interim tag
• 8:20
  removed. He literally wasted like a good
• 8:22
  40 seconds when they were trying to get the the game-winning
• 8:25
  touchdown. Just awful.
• 8:27
  Just All right, screw it, I'm about to get sick again.
• 8:30
  All right, so let's go on. I mean, yeah, I was gonna say,
• 8:34
  do you have anything for for your games or what you watch
• 8:36
  from Matt? Well thanks to bad eyesight my 2
• 8:39
  bets were at an accidental parlay, so I'm up.
• 8:45
  Technically I'm up 2.3 units I think because I instead of doing
• 8:49
  2 individual bets it went down as one parlay so.
• 8:52
  You gotta watch that, man. Those apps are sneaky.
• 8:55
  Yeah. I mean, we're old and blind.
• 8:56
  So I told you yesterday I'm like, yeah, I mean, you know, we
• 8:59
  still got to count that as singles for the show 'cause
• 9:01
  that's what you gave out, but your bankroll is a little bit
• 9:03
  healthier and that's always a good one.
• 9:05
  But all right, so again, yeah, let's get into this because now
• 9:09
  I'm in a bad mood from talking about.
• 9:11
  And I, I cashed Ball State, by the way, and I'm still angry.
• 9:14
  So we talked about not being able to watch college football
• 9:17
  on YouTube TV. Our butt cheeks of the wards.
• 9:19
  Those butt cheeks should be like, yeah, they should be
• 9:22
  rusted and covered with fecal matter.
• 9:25
  Because let me tell you something, Disney, ESPN, Google,
• 9:28
  YouTube TV, you all suck, All right, Get it done.
• 9:31
  Your trillion dollar corporations.
• 9:33
  You're hurting us. All right?
• 9:35
  We just want to watch football, ESPN, We know what you're doing.
• 9:38
  You want to get everybody to cancel YouTube TV and go to your
• 9:40
  app. By the way, your app sucks too,
• 9:42
  because nobody can watch anything on it.
• 9:45
  So yeah, we're done. Shout out to Pat Mac if you
• 9:47
  basically told his bosses. Stop shilling and having all
• 9:50
  your personalities tell you to go to this website site.
• 9:53
  I think this is more Disney and ESPN than it is Google and
• 9:56
  YouTube TV, but there's certainly plenty of blame to go
• 10:01
  around. But.
• 10:02
  On one side you got, you know, Google and YouTube, the, you
• 10:06
  know, the Champions of censorship and all that.
• 10:09
  You know, you've stayed the wrong thing on YouTube or
• 10:11
  whatever. And on the other side, you got
• 10:12
  Disney who killed Star Wars. So I hate all these people
• 10:16
  involved. I mean so I mean the butt cheeks
• 10:21
  is perfect for them. They are a boiled inner cheek of
• 10:24
  society it. Is like, literally a quadrant of
• 10:28
  inflamed hemorrhoidal tissue. I can't stand all four of these
• 10:31
  people. It's like, really, how many
• 10:32
  billions more do you need? And the problem is because
• 10:35
  YouTube TV apparently is not caving in.
• 10:37
  They're just like, no, we're not going to do that.
• 10:39
  Yeah, we have Google. We can outlast this financially
• 10:41
  longer than you can. But yeah, I mean, we're going on
• 10:45
  two weeks now. Come on.
• 10:47
  Just, you know what we need? You know, that's how bad they
• 10:50
  are. They're going to make me root
• 10:51
  for Mr. Amazon. How he can buy college football,
• 10:54
  Put it all on Amazon. There we go.
• 10:57
  Boom. 13 bucks a month. No.
• 11:00
  Doubt. All right, well, let's get into
• 11:02
  a free delivery. Let's go.
• 11:04
  We have lots of our negativity out of the way.
• 11:06
  So we've got another five game slate between Thursday and
• 11:08
  Friday. We've actually got 3 bets on
• 11:11
  those five games. So let's take a quick peek at
• 11:13
  the 2:00. We we don't have any locked in
• 11:17
  action on but we may have some thoughts.
• 11:19
  Starting off Thursday we've got Georgia Southern traveling to
• 11:22
  App State. Boone, NC Lovely place to watch
• 11:25
  a game. From what I'm told App State is
• 11:27
  laying 5 1/2 with a total of 61 1/2.
• 11:31
  I didn't really have anything other than I I believe Georgia
• 11:34
  Southern was a a midweek game couple weeks ago and and our man
• 11:38
  Drew asked our thoughts. I was like slightly into the
• 11:41
  over whoever they were playing. Both defenses were ass and it
• 11:44
  was like 21 to 14 at the end of the first quarter.
• 11:47
  I I had nothing here spread went down from 6 1/2 to 5 1/2.
• 11:51
  So there is some Georgia Southern money but I I don't
• 11:53
  think I bet on or against App state all.
• 11:55
  Year. What was the over under on that
• 11:57
  one? 61 1/2.
• 12:02
  Yeah, they are ass. I don't know if they're that
• 12:03
  much ass. Well, they can score, and
• 12:06
  apparently they can not prevent anybody else from scoring.
• 12:08
  So yeah, I think they can write down the why.
• 12:13
  I would probably lay the points then if it's going to be that
• 12:16
  high scoring. Yeah.
• 12:19
  Yeah, I'd lay the five and a half.
• 12:22
  You know 2 bad teams man. I'm coming off back-to-back days
• 12:25
  of Akron, UMass and Kent State. Ball State, I can't do it again.
• 12:29
  So a pass for me here and the one Friday game we have nothing
• 12:33
  on. Northwestern travelling out to
• 12:35
  USC in that great Big 10 rivalry.
• 12:39
  Yeah. Northwestern getting.
• 12:41
  Yeah, right. Northwestern getting 14 1/2 with
• 12:45
  a total of 50 1/2. Thoughts on that?
• 12:51
  That's still USC if I'd bet the over, but God Northwestern.
• 12:57
  I mean, I don't care. I know they're playing better,
• 12:58
  but two time zones, USC take them.
• 13:06
  Yeah, that's slightly into USC myself, but yeah, you're right.
• 13:09
  Northwestern is playing actually a winning record for them at
• 13:12
  that point. Well, you got the hook there as
• 13:13
  well. I mean, if you're a numbers
• 13:15
  player, you know, the hook looks enticing.
• 13:18
  But I'm with you. If if anything for this Friday
• 13:22
  night, I'm leaning Usci won't touch it because it starts late
• 13:24
  and I got to get up at like 4:00 Saturday morning for work.
• 13:26
  But yeah, slightly in USC here as well.
• 13:31
  All right, well, let's get into the games that we do have some
• 13:34
  bets on Pete's. Pete does have one for Thursday,
• 13:37
  but he like I said, he's in a meeting.
• 13:39
  So we'll we'll recap that at the end.
• 13:41
  But Friday you got something on two of the the other two games
• 13:45
  that are taking place. So what you got?
• 13:49
  All right, well, the line is Houston -2 1/2.
• 13:52
  It actually went down to Houston getting a point or getting a
• 13:57
  half a point. When I be honest, I just bet the
• 13:59
  money line here on Houston, they're pretty efficient.
• 14:03
  They've been on the road. Their third down conversions are
• 14:06
  are pretty solid, a little over 40%.
• 14:10
  What I like is, you know, you, you, you know, what tells us is
• 14:17
  they don't need to blow out UCF. They just need to, you know,
• 14:21
  pretty much not screw up in the fourth quarter.
• 14:24
  So I like them just straight up to win the game.
• 14:29
  I'm also betting the over here we, we saw a lot of big plays
• 14:33
  when we saw West Virginia play them a few weeks ago.
• 14:36
  So I think there's going to be some big plays, some quick
• 14:39
  scores. I so I'm the over order went
• 14:44
  down to 47 1/2. For some reason.
• 14:46
  It was I think it opened at 48, so it went down.
• 14:49
  So I'll take the extra point there, a half point.
• 14:52
  So I like I have two bets on this game.
• 14:54
  Actually, I like Houston to win the game outright and I also
• 14:57
  like the over of 47 1/2. Yeah, I like the Houston side of
• 15:03
  this. It seems like a great buy.
• 15:05
  Low opportunity after that, whatever the hell that was
• 15:08
  against West Virginia last week. You know, decency bias, man.
• 15:14
  Everybody's like, wow, this team just lost to West Virginia.
• 15:16
  They're terrible, especially after we saw West Virginia two
• 15:19
  weeks ago and they got puddled by UCF.
• 15:21
  But yeah, there's this. I I would agree with this, at
• 15:25
  least from a side point. I don't have any thoughts on the
• 15:27
  total, but yeah, perfect by low spot on Houston right here.
• 15:32
  Wasn't super impressed with what we saw at UCF, but then again it
• 15:36
  was West Virginia so but yeah, definitely like the like the
• 15:40
  side play here. Yeah, there's going to be a lot
• 15:44
  of points. I mean, there's I think I of
• 15:46
  course, you know, 10 seven final now that I just, you know, 85
• 15:53
  bears against 2000 Ravens. So here we go.
• 15:56
  That's the way it's going to do. But yeah, I saw that because I
• 15:59
  originally when I looked at it, I thought it was low and so I
• 16:04
  just went with it and it went a little bit lower for me.
• 16:06
  So why not just jump on it? Bet the over?
• 16:11
  Well, Pete had his other game. Who will will go over his Yeah.
• 16:14
  We'll get him. We'll get his at the end.
• 16:18
  All right, so we'll do like a yeah, both mine are tomorrow.
• 16:20
  So chronologically here we are. So we got the Tulane in Memphis.
• 16:27
  I'm just looking at the 55 1/2 point line.
• 16:30
  Both teams pretty much offensively, they're kind of
• 16:33
  high octane. They're putting them nearly 38
• 16:35
  points a game for Memphis and has a pretty much balanced
• 16:38
  attack. Tulane is about, you know, 25 to
• 16:42
  30 points a game themselves. They create turnovers on
• 16:46
  defense. I believe that the turnover
• 16:49
  ratio favors them as well. I don't have my chart with me,
• 16:52
  but the passing attack for Tulane can quickly turn the
• 16:57
  field into a scoreboard of the on their own.
• 17:00
  So both teams shown they can score in bunches.
• 17:05
  So I'm looking at this one and it's 55 1/2.
• 17:08
  I like the over on this one. The weather looks fine so won't
• 17:13
  be any crazy rain or anything. I so yeah, 55 1/2.
• 17:18
  I am betting on the over for Memphis and Tulane.
• 17:24
  I'm just going to agree with you man, I didn't look at this game
• 17:26
  at all, not going to lie. Well, now he's just jinxing me.
• 17:30
  No, man, I'm, I'm just going to agree with everything he said
• 17:33
  because you broke it down. I did not I, I think I've, I
• 17:38
  after the Mac thing, I really tried to look because you know,
• 17:40
  you, you win a couple games like you hit a game Tuesday, you hit
• 17:43
  a game Wednesday. There are a video out there.
• 17:45
  You know, you're putting all your stats out there.
• 17:48
  First thing you want to do is bet a game on Thursday.
• 17:50
  I took a look at the two games on Thursday and I'm like, no,
• 17:54
  not going to do it. Then I got into Friday and I was
• 17:56
  like, oh, US senior the no, I'm like, you know what, screw it.
• 17:59
  I didn't even look at the other two.
• 18:02
  I'm just going to wait till Saturday and and just.
• 18:06
  Yeah, it's funny how we pick our game.
• 18:07
  So I just look at the, you know, look on, look at the odds and I
• 18:10
  look at the games. I'm like, OK, well, that game
• 18:12
  looks interesting. This looks interesting.
• 18:13
  And then I look at the, I think what the line would be for what
• 18:15
  I put it at. And then I see it's different,
• 18:18
  like, OK, then I look at a little bit more and yeah, the 55
• 18:22
  1/2. I mean, I think this spread
• 18:24
  should be like the Georgia one, like up in the 61 or whatever
• 18:28
  and it's 55. So, you know, that's what I that
• 18:31
  was based on what you're thinking.
• 18:32
  I think these guys are could score more than you know,
• 18:34
  Georgia Southern and what app state so.
• 18:39
  I don't know, man, You guys, some really crappy defenses in
• 18:41
  that game. But yeah, if that's on ESPN, we
• 18:44
  won't have to worry about watching it.
• 18:46
  So. Yeah, I don't have to worry
• 18:47
  about sweating any of these games.
• 18:48
  So I I got the next two nights free.
• 18:51
  I'll try and get check Pete's because he's got something
• 18:53
  tonight, so we'll root for no points in his bet for Thursday.
• 18:58
  But yeah, I like not stressing until Saturday.
• 19:01
  It's it's it's a nice feeling. All right, Speaking of Saturday,
• 19:04
  I only did two things. Oh, Nope, that's Pete's.
• 19:07
  Oh, no, that's Pete's too. There we go.
• 19:12
  All right, A-Team, I can't figure out the God damn Florida
• 19:15
  Gators. I think I've bet 3 Florida Gator
• 19:19
  games this year, either on or against them, and I've lost all
• 19:21
  three. So take.
• 19:22
  I've got them figured out. Do you?
• 19:25
  I don't like them. OK, well you don't like anybody
• 19:27
  that's not Florida State, to be fair.
• 19:33
  Well, I'm betting them I'm laying the three here.
• 19:36
  I I mean, they played well against Georgia and you can
• 19:40
  complain about that game all you want and you and I did because
• 19:43
  we both laid the seven with with the Bulldogs and they decided to
• 19:47
  take the knee. Smart football play, yes, good
• 19:50
  play for us, not so much. Neither of these teams
• 19:54
  offensively really excites the hell out of me.
• 19:56
  But I do think Florida is a little bit better on that side
• 19:59
  of the ball. You look at some of the common
• 20:00
  opponents they've had Kentucky against good defenses.
• 20:05
  Does not put up a ton of points here.
• 20:07
  Their offense is still struggling even with their with
• 20:09
  their new quarterback cutter who seems to be doing OK.
• 20:14
  I don't I haven't seen a whole lot.
• 20:16
  You know when when Napier left about a ton of kids transferring
• 20:20
  out. I bet their their injury report
• 20:22
  they've got like 13 guys that are out but seven or eight of
• 20:26
  them are already out for the year.
• 20:27
  But I guess the rules say they still have to be on the report
• 20:30
  anyway. So in Kentucky, I mean, you, you
• 20:33
  look at this injury report, you could make like half of another
• 20:36
  program. Both these programs have so many
• 20:38
  kids on the injury. Report here that is true.
• 20:41
  I just, you know, I still don't trust Kentucky.
• 20:43
  And I know they went into Auburn and beat Auburn, but I think
• 20:46
  I've learned my lesson that Auburn is a train wreck.
• 20:49
  Then I'll get into that because oddly enough, they're my next
• 20:52
  game. I just think they're going to
• 20:54
  like, they seem to put up a spirit endeavor for Billy
• 20:56
  Gonzalez in his first game as head coach.
• 20:58
  I don't think they've checked out.
• 21:01
  You know, I, I think Kentucky has played worse against lesser
• 21:04
  opponents. And again, this is a good
• 21:06
  defense and Kentucky has shown all season long they go up
• 21:08
  against good defense. They struggle.
• 21:10
  So at 3, like some apps had three and a half, I probably
• 21:13
  would have let this one go, but I did get 3 here and I did use a
• 21:20
  nice little another MGM boost. They gave me two boosts this
• 21:23
  week. I used one on Ball State
• 21:25
  yesterday. I'm using the other one on
• 21:27
  Florida here. So slight plus money laying the
• 21:31
  three. But yeah, not not a ton of
• 21:34
  confidence to to go 2 units here.
• 21:36
  But I think Florida is the better team.
• 21:37
  They should win this one by a touchdown or more.
• 21:39
  So I got 1 unit on Florida laying 3.
• 21:43
  Yeah, I like the way they're seem to be playing for the new
• 21:45
  coach again. Forgot his name.
• 21:48
  I don't need to. Know Billy Gonzalez or.
• 21:50
  Whatever. But you know, getting back to
• 21:54
  the coaching from the game last week, I think son, I forgot to
• 21:57
  mention we were beneficiaries and victims of the good
• 22:00
  coaching. We we love to watch because with
• 22:02
  Pete's under hit and what North Carolina, Syracuse, North
• 22:06
  Carolina gets the ball 7 minutes left.
• 22:08
  You know, 1 scorer puts the over in.
• 22:09
  And what does Belcheck do? Run the ball 30 seconds off the
• 22:13
  clock, run the ball 30 seconds off the clock, run it all the
• 22:16
  way down. And where any other coach is
• 22:18
  probably lining up, doing a hurry up shotgun spread
• 22:21
  shooting, turning the ball over and or scoring and you don't
• 22:24
  need to. And then we got another good
• 22:26
  coach with Kirby Smart. Well, just take the knee, get
• 22:28
  the win and get out of town. So, yeah, great for the good
• 22:33
  coaching, but it was it hurt us and it helped us.
• 22:35
  But back to the game. Yeah, I like this with the new
• 22:38
  coach. Maybe they'll hire this guy as
• 22:40
  the as the new one if they've seen he's he's.
• 22:44
  A sport of lifer man, They they seem to play well for him.
• 22:46
  He's been with that program for a long, long time, so.
• 22:49
  Oh, nice. OK, I.
• 22:50
  Mean, I like when I saw against George, I really thought George
• 22:52
  was going to stop them. So did I.
• 22:54
  Florida was winning in the fourth quarter and you know that
• 22:59
  that play that was ruled not a catch.
• 23:01
  Sorry, man, that was a catch. No wonder these SESEC officials
• 23:04
  are getting permanently banned because they still suck,
• 23:07
  apparently. But.
• 23:07
  Not again. Didn't see it, couldn't find it.
• 23:10
  It didn't matter, we didn't win the game, so whatever next.
• 23:14
  Oh good, the game was on ABC. Nope, Nope.
• 23:17
  That's part of Disney too. So.
• 23:19
  Yes, it is. It all is all right, All right.
• 23:22
  And my last one, yeah. So here now where I said I was O
• 23:27
  and three picking Florida games. I went back through my stats.
• 23:31
  Vanderbilt games, whether I'm picking on or against them.
• 23:33
  I'm 3 and O, So I feel good about this game here because
• 23:36
  Vanderbilt is involved. I talked earlier about how like
• 23:40
  when those rankings come out, especially after the first week,
• 23:42
  I kind of look at the four to 16 that are just on the outside,
• 23:45
  but Vanderbilt's sitting there at 16.
• 23:48
  What I like about teams in that position is, you know, they're
• 23:51
  six and two, seven and two, you know, because some teams haven't
• 23:53
  had their second bye week yet. But you know that when you're in
• 23:58
  that range, that 13 to 18 range, I mean, you basically know you
• 24:03
  got to win out. There's going to be a ton of
• 24:05
  chaos in front of you over the next 4 weeks.
• 24:08
  Win out and, and you could very easily get into this bracket.
• 24:11
  And I look at Vanderbilt, they have Auburn, they end at
• 24:14
  Tennessee, and they got somebody else lame in the middle.
• 24:18
  Might be Kentucky after this, I'm not sure.
• 24:21
  But Vanderbilt's schedule is certainly set up for them to run
• 24:23
  the table, go 10 and two and make a case to be in this
• 24:26
  bracket. Not impressed with Auburn at
• 24:30
  all. I mean, three points against one
• 24:32
  of the worst defenses in the SEC in Kentucky.
• 24:35
  Ashton Daniels, as awful as he was, he's going to be the
• 24:38
  starter. So I feel a little bit better
• 24:41
  about that because he didn't look that good against Kentucky
• 24:44
  either at 6 1/2. You know, again, a number play.
• 24:50
  If this gets to seven, it wouldn't surprise me.
• 24:52
  I wouldn't necessarily do the seven because I've already had
• 24:55
  like two or three pushes this year.
• 24:57
  But I think Vanderbilt knows what's in front of them.
• 25:01
  I I mean, you already look at the rankings.
• 25:03
  BYU is 7, Texas Tech is 8. They play each other this week.
• 25:06
  So somebody's going to go down there.
• 25:08
  You know, Oklahoma plays Alabama the following week.
• 25:11
  Somebody's going to drop there. I mean, it's there for, for
• 25:15
  those teams that are just on the outside looking in.
• 25:17
  And Vanderbilt definitely has one of the best schedules to
• 25:20
  make the case here. Plus, you know, they, what they,
• 25:23
  they lost to Missouri a while ago and then Texas.
• 25:27
  I mean, they were getting shellacked against Texas and I
• 25:30
  was like, for once, the spread went in my favor because I laid
• 25:32
  2 1/2 early in the week. It ended up going off 3 1/2 at
• 25:35
  kickoff. And then Vanderbilt puts up 21
• 25:38
  points in the fourth quarter against that defense.
• 25:40
  No reason why they can't do the same to Auburn here.
• 25:43
  I, I, I don't even know if if Hugh Free is getting fired, if
• 25:47
  they're going to have the, you know, the coach bump, Max
• 25:50
  effort, whatever. I I just don't I mean, there's
• 25:52
  nothing I don't know. I mean, nobody can call plays
• 25:56
  worse than you freeze apparently.
• 25:58
  So maybe there's some some optimism there.
• 26:00
  But going to Vandy knowing what Vandy needs to do, I think Pavi
• 26:05
  will finally actually have a good game.
• 26:09
  You know, he hasn't really been lighting it up, but defense is
• 26:12
  solid, just as good as Auburn's. I think.
• 26:14
  I think at home they'll win this one by ten or more.
• 26:17
  So I do have a one unit play on The Commodores here.
• 26:22
  Oh yeah, I agree. I'm ACT.
• 26:24
  Was anyone really surprised? Freeze?
• 26:25
  I saw Freeze getting fired the day they hired him.
• 26:27
  I mean, I didn't think it was a good hire from day one.
• 26:30
  I mean, I was, I was like, why it was?
• 26:32
  Bad, Yeah. Such a bad situation.
• 26:37
  Yeah, I'll be interesting to see how they play out the rest of
• 26:39
  the schedule and get into the playoffs.
• 26:40
  They play Tennessee at the end, don't they?
• 26:42
  Yeah, I think they go to Tennessee, but I'm pretty sure
• 26:44
  it's Auburn and Kentucky at home.
• 26:47
  I I, I know, I think it's Kentucky.
• 26:49
  No, I looked, I was like, wow, 2 bad teams and a Tennessee team
• 26:53
  with a really bad defense. Certainly a team that can go 10
• 26:57
  and two. But yeah, I mean, they know
• 27:00
  what's in front of them. They know if they lose their
• 27:01
  done. So a lot of teams that are
• 27:03
  looking at that situation, I mean, hell, it works for Notre
• 27:06
  Dame. Let's just lose all our games by
• 27:08
  Week 2 and then we'll just put that pressure on ourselves for
• 27:10
  the next three months. And it worked out for them.
• 27:12
  So you know, Vanderbilt's only got to do it three times.
• 27:14
  Notre Dame got to do it 10. So.
• 27:17
  You know, I think the nice little bounce back here for
• 27:20
  Vandy, they might have found some in that fourth quarter.
• 27:22
  And you know, the reason I bet Texas against Vanderbilt, that
• 27:25
  Texas fourth quarter against Mississippi State, I was like,
• 27:28
  maybe they found something. Hey, you know what, Maybe
• 27:30
  Vanderbilt got a little back on track with 21 points in the
• 27:32
  fourth quarter at Texas. So same, same thought process
• 27:36
  with this handicap. So yeah, 6 1/2, I'll, I'll take
• 27:40
  it. Just one unit though 'cause you
• 27:42
  know, I can't figure out Auburn for the life of me either, but I
• 27:46
  think they're pretty much at right bottom.
• 27:48
  We're trucking through this without the other guy here, but
• 27:51
  so let's move on. We'll do the the RPO segment.
• 27:57
  Yeah, I didn't put too many games on this this week, but
• 28:01
  most of the most of the big ones with everything with conference
• 28:04
  implications there. But Indiana laying 14 1/2 going
• 28:09
  to Happy Valley, total of 448 1/2.
• 28:12
  Thoughts. I'm running to the over, I
• 28:16
  think. I think Indiana is just going
• 28:18
  to, They've been crushing people left and right.
• 28:21
  I like Indiana, but I'm going to, I'll play it.
• 28:23
  I'm going to go over here. I think they're going to put up
• 28:25
  kind of like Toledo the other night.
• 28:26
  They're going to put up like 42 or something by themselves and
• 28:29
  that means I'm going to get about 10 and they can probably
• 28:32
  handle that. Yeah, I'll watch you run to the
• 28:35
  window. I'm going to sit back and not
• 28:36
  touch this game at all. It's something frightens me
• 28:39
  about It's been too easy for Indiana that there's got to be a
• 28:42
  bump in the road somewhere. It may, it might not be this
• 28:44
  weekend, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happens.
• 28:47
  Georgia laying 9 1/2 at the home of the cowbell.
• 28:50
  Mississippi State total of 57 1/2.
• 28:52
  What? Do you think I hate the cowbell?
• 28:55
  Oh, my God, I'd love to see Georgia jump up.
• 28:59
  So maybe we, if we do have to watch this game, they can put
• 29:01
  the cowbells away early. But again, I'm going to lean
• 29:05
  over. I like, I like this game to be
• 29:08
  over. Mississippi State can score.
• 29:10
  Georgia can have us to score when they're not playing
• 29:12
  Florida. So yeah, I like the over here.
• 29:17
  Getting 9 1/2 intrigues me. I'm not gonna lie, Georgia
• 29:22
  really should win this game by 21 points, but with their
• 29:25
  defense not at the level that it's used to, wouldn't surprise
• 29:29
  you. Mississippi State sticks around.
• 29:32
  Here's a nice match up. 7 versus 8 in the new rankings.
• 29:35
  BYU getting 10. Complete disrespect going to
• 29:39
  Texas Tech with a total of 52 1/2.
• 29:41
  LJ Martin's supposed to be back in the BYU backfield.
• 29:45
  I think that makes a difference. I am passing on this game.
• 29:50
  I'm leaning heavily towards BYU, but if it was that, BYU would be
• 29:55
  one thing. BYU can make you play their
• 29:58
  game. So I, you know, Texas 2nd put up
• 30:02
  the points I like I'm going to pass, but I'm really leaning
• 30:05
  heavily towards BYU. Yeah, I I would lean the other
• 30:09
  way, but I've been thinking of BYU was a fraud all year long
• 30:12
  and every week they proved to me they're not.
• 30:14
  But I'm going to hang on one more week and assume that
• 30:16
  they're a fraud. And I think Texas Tech's going
• 30:18
  to steamroll here, but not confident enough because BYU
• 30:21
  already screwed me once this year.
• 30:24
  SMU fresh off their win over EU, who apparently is not back.
• 30:30
  No, they're not half at Boston College. 55 1/2 let down spot
• 30:35
  for SMU or are they going to steamroll here?
• 30:38
  I think they steamroll here. This is one of the ones I was
• 30:41
  actually looking at towards betting so I would you know I
• 30:43
  would run pick SMU late at 10. I think they steamroll.
• 30:46
  Doesn't matter about the travel. Yeah, personally, I'm avoiding
• 30:51
  this game, but I'm going to hope that Boston College pulls the
• 30:53
  upset because my Louisville bet to win the conference is still
• 30:58
  has a shot. Another SMU loss wouldn't hurt,
• 31:01
  however. Your boys Texas A&M laying 7 at
• 31:06
  Missouri, 47 1/2 for a total. What how you feeling about your
• 31:10
  Aggies this week? Feeling good.
• 31:12
  I think they're playing well. I think they had the bye week
• 31:15
  last time. We could give a honorary mention
• 31:18
  for the butt cheeks award to Yahoo Sports.
• 31:20
  They had an article today about who's going to win the Heisman
• 31:24
  and their top three were saying Samson and Mendoza barely a
• 31:30
  mention of Marcel Reed. So they get my honorable mention
• 31:34
  for the butt cheeks award. But I like A and M -, 7.
• 31:38
  I should like the over 2. I think they can put up the
• 31:40
  points. So yeah, I like both of those
• 31:43
  bets actually. Yeah, I would lean A&M, but
• 31:47
  again, when we were in Florida, I watch their defence give up 42
• 31:49
  to Arkansas. So I'm like, I have a hard time
• 31:53
  putting my hard earned American dollars on them, but there's
• 31:58
  really no, I mean, Missouri's Tribulus out, you know, Marcel
• 32:02
  Reed is not There's no reason why Tex A&M should not cover
• 32:05
  this spread. This one was odd.
• 32:08
  I added this because this this total kind of shocked me a
• 32:11
  little bit. Oregon making the trip almost
• 32:14
  all the way across the country, laying 6 1/2 at Iowa, total of
• 32:18
  only 40 1/2 in an Oregon game. I mean, what does that tell you?
• 32:24
  What do? What do you think about this?
• 32:27
  I'm running to the over. I may actually put this one in.
• 32:30
  I'll fall. If that's a trap, I will dive
• 32:32
  head first right into it. But absolutely, 40 points total
• 32:38
  with a game involving Oregon. OK, let's let's let's roll the
• 32:41
  dice. See, now I'm thinking that
• 32:43
  that's a lot of respect for Iowa, like you're giving them 6
• 32:46
  1/2 points, but that you're going to tell me this is like a
• 32:49
  24 to 17 game or something like that.
• 32:52
  It's just stinks to high heaven. I don't want anything to do with
• 32:56
  it because, like you said, either Oregon is going to win
• 32:58
  like, you know, 38 to 17, or they're going to lose like 17 to
• 33:03
  13. I know whatever I choose, I
• 33:06
  would be on the wrong end of it. So credit to you for thinking
• 33:10
  about betting this. But yeah, I don't want any part
• 33:12
  of this at all. I mean, like I said, Oregon's
• 33:15
  only win against the team of the winning record is Northwestern,
• 33:18
  I believe. I mean, like, who would they
• 33:19
  really be? I mean, if Gronowski can only
• 33:23
  suck maybe half the game, you know this would be a potential
• 33:27
  money line. Sprinkle here on Iowa for me.
• 33:30
  But. Break out the salt.
• 33:33
  Yeah, no salt here. Can't do it.
• 33:35
  Ah, your boys. I always put your boys in here
• 33:37
  because I know you love to rant. They're getting only a point and
• 33:42
  1/2 at Clemson, total of 56 1/2. I just think this game could
• 33:47
  probably go over because, you know, these defense looking at
• 33:49
  me have any idea what they're doing.
• 33:50
  But what do you think? Yeah, if, well, if the defense I
• 33:54
  played last week shows up, it could be the under.
• 33:56
  I don't know if they can do it two weeks in a row.
• 33:58
  I like that they finally won and Norvell gets a week off a hot
• 34:01
  seat. Hopefully that continues in the
• 34:05
  minority here. I hope they keep him.
• 34:08
  I'll touch on that. Probably next week there'll be
• 34:09
  another show coming out. But yeah, I'll, I'll just roll
• 34:14
  with my boys. I'll take floor to say I'll take
• 34:16
  the point and a half and I'll take the under.
• 34:20
  I'll give you both right there. All right.
• 34:23
  LSU Speaking of, will we see a bump in performance due to a
• 34:27
  coach being fired, getting 10 points going to Alabama total of
• 34:33
  49 1/2. What do you think?
• 34:37
  I wish for the interim they would have brought back Coach O
• 34:40
  for this game. Bull Tigers.
• 34:42
  It's cool, but getting 10 at Alabama, Alabama's been good
• 34:49
  since the loss. So 49 1/2 too.
• 34:55
  That's juicy. These line makers are good.
• 34:57
  I got to tell you that that's. Why they make the big bucks.
• 35:00
  Yeah, I'm going to pass on this one.
• 35:01
  This real lean towards Lane the points with Alabama here.
• 35:05
  Yeah, I've heard a lot of people buying into the coach bump in a
• 35:10
  good way for LSU, but can't like, I know, yeah, usually
• 35:16
  during the season you have a stinker.
• 35:17
  Alabama had there's Week 1. I kind of feel like there's
• 35:20
  another one coming, but I don't know if this is it.
• 35:26
  I it's not like LSU was really good beforehand.
• 35:29
  I think they've had a couple defensive players that are not
• 35:31
  playing here. I thought I read somewhere
• 35:33
  Harold Perkins was not going to play, which would be a big loss
• 35:35
  if that's the case. But yeah, I don't want anything
• 35:38
  to do with this game. But I would lean Bama but not
• 35:40
  not enough to to make a bet and the last one the Dylan the
• 35:44
  Patrick Mahomless Nebraska Cornhuskers getting a point and
• 35:49
  1/2 at UCLAI would I would Nebraska this all day long man.
• 35:56
  I I mean UCLA is still pretty bad as Riola that important to
• 36:02
  this team? He might be.
• 36:09
  I guess we'll find out, but. Yeah, I mean leaning towards
• 36:13
  over actually just with I think they're both not really that
• 36:16
  good on defense either, but I think a little.
• 36:19
  But yeah, I'm going to pass on this one.
• 36:22
  I'm surprised no lane kipping games here.
• 36:24
  You didn't give me a chance to pass on any of those.
• 36:27
  Well, Ole Miss is playing the Citadel I believe, so pass.
• 36:33
  There's really no I don't even know if there's a spread out for
• 36:35
  that, but I'm sure whatever it is, it's at least at least in
• 36:38
  the 40s. So I didn't figure that was
• 36:40
  relevant enough to make the list.
• 36:43
  Yeah, I'm passing on this one. Yeah.
• 36:45
  Nebraska or nothing for me, man, but we'll see.
• 36:48
  All right, let's recap. All right, well, we're
• 36:52
  undefeated. Yeah, I'll run through his real
• 36:55
  quick here. He's tonight He's he's back.
• 36:59
  He was 5 and O all of his games were the under last week.
• 37:02
  So he is, he's rolling with the under hair he's got Thursday.
• 37:06
  For tonight, he's got UTSA in South Florida under 67 1/2,
• 37:11
  Temple Army under 46 1/2, Navy and Notre Dame under 55 1/2 and
• 37:18
  Colorado, West Virginia. Wow, what an exciting game that
• 37:22
  won't be. Under 54 1/2.
• 37:27
  Tim, recap your picks, baby. Oh, they got.
• 37:30
  I got my 2 winners this week at Toledo over Northern Illinois by
• 37:35
  14 1/2 and I got the over in that game 41 1/2.
• 37:38
  I have 3 bets on two games I've got.
• 37:41
  Friday I got Houston but then the money line over UCF and I
• 37:46
  also have the over of 47 1/2 on that game.
• 37:49
  And also Friday night Tulane and Memphis I got the over of 55
• 37:53
  1/2. All right, matching was Betty.
• 37:57
  Betty good to me, at least for the first week.
• 37:59
  I have nothing tonight or tomorrow, but Saturday I do have
• 38:02
  Vanderbilt lane 6 1/2 over Auburn and using a Bet MGM
• 38:06
  profit boost for a lane 3 over Kentucky and a little bit of a
• 38:10
  plus money. Thanks, Dan.
• 38:11
  Nice. Yeah.
• 38:15
  All right. Well, should we wrap that up?
• 38:17
  I think that's everything pretty.
• 38:18
  Quick boy, he's going to go out. Goes by fast when you're having
• 38:22
  fun but not the other guy here, you know?
• 38:24
  I know right? Like I say, he's busy spending
• 38:26
  his money man. He's he hit all the I know last
• 38:28
  week. Look at it up there plus 4.47
• 38:31
  units. Good for him man but yeah guys
• 38:34
  check us out reach us yeah look at the YouTube channel comment
• 38:38
  below let us know your thoughts on the rankings who you thought
• 38:40
  should have been in and who you think should be out let us know
• 38:43
  your bets Tim what's all our socials or whatever because I.
• 38:47
  Never. Well, you can find us here on
• 38:48
  YouTube, like and subscribe to our channel.
• 38:50
  Want to send out a thank you to Nick Clayton?
• 38:53
  I believe Martin, Jana and another Nick for subscribing.
• 38:57
  Welcome aboard. Also, thank you, Craig.
• 39:00
  He gave the five star review last week, so that was also
• 39:03
  nice. So shout out to you guys.
• 39:04
  Those people are cool. Be cool like those people and
• 39:07
  like to subscribe to our channel.
• 39:09
  You can also find us on Spotify and Apple and that's all I got
• 39:15
  for that. Works for me man.
• 39:18
  Thanks for listening everybody. Good luck with your bets this
• 39:21
  weekend. Maybe we'll be back with some
• 39:23
  more Max shorts next Tuesday. We'll see how it goes.
• 39:26
  All right. Take care, everybody.