Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 86 : Assessing Hitter Hot/Cold Starts
Transcript
- 0:15Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode eighty six of Cards
- 0:19Speaker 1: and Categories. I am my cool Art from Rasball, joined
- 0:22Speaker 1: as always by my very good friend Jeremy Brewer, also
- 0:25Speaker 1: from Rasball. How are you doing tonight, buddy?
- 0:28Speaker 2: I am just about as good as Jake and Carthy
- 0:29Speaker 2: getting his first hit and twenty five played appearances. Did
- 0:32Speaker 2: you see the reaction of his teammates with that one?
- 0:35Speaker 1: But I know that that has been not a great
- 0:38Speaker 1: take on my Jake McCarthy love coming into this season.
- 0:41Speaker 1: But no, what did his teammates do for himed?
- 0:43Speaker 3: They asked for the ball back? They asked me now.
- 0:46Speaker 2: A single center field, and all those teammates mocked in
- 0:49Speaker 2: my as for ready the ball back from the outfielders,
- 0:52Speaker 2: just like as his first interview hit. So that's how
- 0:54Speaker 2: good I'm feeling broken over twenty four skid. I'm here tonight,
- 0:58Speaker 2: I'm ready to go.
- 0:59Speaker 1: Yes. So we are recording here on the evening of
- 1:03Speaker 1: April ninth, Wednesday night. So it's been a bit of
- 1:07Speaker 1: a bloodbath on the injury news front. So we're gonna
- 1:10Speaker 1: hit maybe some of the bigger ones that have come through,
- 1:12Speaker 1: as well as some other news and notes since we've
- 1:14Speaker 1: had a couple of weeks off here, I figured it'd
- 1:16Speaker 1: be good just to kind of chat a free wheeling
- 1:19Speaker 1: kind of analysis on some of the things that we've
- 1:22Speaker 1: seen in terms of the start of the season and
- 1:25Speaker 1: what we've liked out of some of the players, or
- 1:28Speaker 1: maybe what we haven't liked of some of the players.
- 1:30Speaker 1: It is still a pretty small sample size, but I mean,
- 1:34Speaker 1: pitching it this time of year, it's so volatile because
- 1:37Speaker 1: people are still warming up and stuff. So I usually
- 1:39Speaker 1: give guys maybe like five starts before I start judging
- 1:42Speaker 1: them on the pitching side too much. But with some
- 1:44Speaker 1: of the new metrics we have on stat cast and
- 1:47Speaker 1: just what you can see with your eyes and put
- 1:49Speaker 1: it together with spring training stats, I think batting evaluations
- 1:54Speaker 1: have become quicker than they really ever have been. What
- 1:57Speaker 1: have you kind of experiences you've been doing some of
- 1:59Speaker 1: your top one hunter analysis so far this year.
- 2:02Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to say that's true, but I've been
- 2:04Speaker 2: proven wrong a little bit already. And what we'll get
- 2:06Speaker 2: into that with some of the guys we talk about
- 2:08Speaker 2: is that there's some metrics to your point, you can see,
- 2:11Speaker 2: like swing speed and things like that that are coming
- 2:14Speaker 2: through but you're still getting to that small sample size.
- 2:16Speaker 2: A guy gets a bad week to start, he doesn't
- 2:19Speaker 2: square things up. Here's like, oh, you know the barrel
- 2:21Speaker 2: rates really, you know, stabilize the beginning. It's just like, yeah,
- 2:25Speaker 2: but the guy just has an off week. It doesn't
- 2:27Speaker 2: matter what the metrics looks like. So, yeah, is it
- 2:32Speaker 2: sooner than a picture getting a month and a half in? Absolutely,
- 2:35Speaker 2: But I feel like it's more like the two to
- 2:36Speaker 2: three week mark, we're really starting to get a feel
- 2:39Speaker 2: for some of those hitters and what's gonna come. So
- 2:42Speaker 2: I still think it's early, but you can definitely see
- 2:45Speaker 2: some tea leaves and some things that are exciting and
- 2:47Speaker 2: interesting to get into. So still early, but enough to
- 2:51Speaker 2: be able to move guys around in the rankings.
- 2:53Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think so. And I mean the other
- 2:55Speaker 1: way too, that like, I think the guys that we're
- 2:57Speaker 1: going to focus on for our main chat are that
- 3:00Speaker 1: has stabilized a little bit more in terms of both
- 3:02Speaker 1: hot and cold performances, Because on the other end, I
- 3:05Speaker 1: think you've got like a Kira in Paris who's been
- 3:08Speaker 1: like absolutely blazing hot but also is running a five
- 3:11Speaker 1: hundred bab up and I don't know. If you've looked
- 3:14Speaker 1: at you should peak his spray chart on Savant. All
- 3:16Speaker 1: he's doing is like he can't turn around on balls
- 3:19Speaker 1: because you know, he's a twenty two year old that
- 3:21Speaker 1: barely has gotten minor league time because he plays with
- 3:24Speaker 1: the Angels. But Paris is just poking stuff down the
- 3:27Speaker 1: right field line while he can just stay alive. So
- 3:30Speaker 1: it's a it's an interesting approach. So you can kind
- 3:33Speaker 1: of like unlayer things pretty quickly with some of the
- 3:36Speaker 1: Savant stuff without having to just sit there and watch
- 3:39Speaker 1: all thousand dollars of games, which I mean, I think
- 3:42Speaker 1: it's great. So but before we get into that discussion,
- 3:45Speaker 1: let's get into some of those news and notes like
- 3:48Speaker 1: I talked about, because let's hit some of the big ones.
- 3:50Speaker 1: So right off the bat, since we've talked, we have
- 3:53Speaker 1: Vladimir Guerrero, junior, first baseman from the Toronto Blue Jays,
- 3:56Speaker 1: gonna be a Toronto Blue Jay for an extremely long time,
- 3:59Speaker 1: signed a fourteen year contract extension that guarantees some five
- 4:03Speaker 1: hundred million dollars coming in the form of a three
- 4:06Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five million dollars signing bonus. I don't
- 4:09Speaker 1: know if that's all upfront or kind of how that's
- 4:11Speaker 1: all structured out. But that's one of that's insane, Like
- 4:15Speaker 1: I've never seen anything like that.
- 4:17Speaker 2: And it's paid out an annual installments over the fourteen
- 4:20Speaker 2: year term, so just a salary that's just like it's
- 4:24Speaker 2: just like you're front loading your salary every year by
- 4:27Speaker 2: a signing bonus so that he gets paid like in March,
- 4:30Speaker 2: a lot and the rest. So like it's, yeah, it's
- 4:34Speaker 2: just some weird, weird finagli and they did with the money.
- 4:38Speaker 1: I do wonder if it is a little bit of
- 4:40Speaker 1: I recognize this in the Tel Marte extension, which we're
- 4:44Speaker 1: not gonna talk about actually, but it came through he
- 4:47Speaker 1: took less money in twenty twenty seven, because I mean,
- 4:51Speaker 1: there's a pretty decent chance there's gonna be a lockout
- 4:53Speaker 1: after this CBA expires, gets given some of these salary
- 4:57Speaker 1: increases that the owners have been complaining of out and
- 5:00Speaker 1: the overall kind of state of where everything's at that
- 5:03Speaker 1: it looks like it's going to be a pretty brutal
- 5:05Speaker 1: CBA negotiation. I wonder if that's part of what Guerrero
- 5:09Speaker 1: is doing here.
- 5:09Speaker 2: I'm just looking at an article and that is actually
- 5:11Speaker 2: what it is, is that signing bonuses are paid regardless
- 5:15Speaker 2: of labor shortages or labor labor stoppages, where salaries can
- 5:19Speaker 2: be withheld and pro rated. So that's actually a big
- 5:22Speaker 2: part of that is that the guarantee of that three
- 5:25Speaker 2: twenty five is paid no matter what for Vladdy Junior,
- 5:28Speaker 2: and the remaining is his salary. So if there is
- 5:31Speaker 2: a work stoppage, he might lose you know, half a
- 5:35Speaker 2: season of that. We're a whole different ballgames. So that's
- 5:38Speaker 2: very interesting, very creative that they're way that they're doing that.
- 5:43Speaker 1: So yeah, and maybe I mean just no matter what
- 5:47Speaker 1: the economic terms are too, you know, as we've seen
- 5:50Speaker 1: things decelerate pretty quickly economically since less time than the
- 5:54Speaker 1: two of us talked, and especially in US Canadian relations.
- 5:58Speaker 1: That I wonder if that's a factor too, that knowing
- 6:00Speaker 1: that three hundred and twenty five million dollar bonus is
- 6:02Speaker 1: coming to Vladdie no matter what. But let's get into
- 6:05Speaker 1: some of the actual kind of nuts and bolts fantasy
- 6:09Speaker 1: baseball analysis on Vladimir Guerrero here. He was probably the
- 6:14Speaker 1: number one first baseman taken in most drafts, I mean,
- 6:18Speaker 1: especially towards the end of draft season, and if you
- 6:20Speaker 1: were using any sort of auction calculator, his projections would
- 6:24Speaker 1: have kicked out the number one first baseman value just
- 6:28Speaker 1: given the overall package of average and power. But what
- 6:33Speaker 1: do you think about this long term deal for him
- 6:35Speaker 1: in Toronto? Do you think it's a decent landing spot
- 6:37Speaker 1: for him?
- 6:39Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think I'm always a big fan
- 6:41Speaker 2: of players landing where they've already been successful. I do
- 6:45Speaker 2: think that there's maybe even free agency, there's an opportunity
- 6:48Speaker 2: for guys to get kind of like an X second
- 6:50Speaker 2: bump if they land in a really good spot. But
- 6:54Speaker 2: sometimes it just doesn't work out, or sometimes the pressure
- 6:57Speaker 2: of that massive contract is too much. When when you're
- 7:00Speaker 2: staying where you're at, regardless of the ballpark, it there's
- 7:04Speaker 2: like a comfort in you already know what your train
- 7:06Speaker 2: regiment is, you already know the coaching staff, You're just
- 7:08Speaker 2: continuing what you're doing. So I actually love that aspect
- 7:11Speaker 2: for Vladdie Carrero. At the same time, I think the
- 7:15Speaker 2: ballpark is probably not the best ballpark, but anythink but
- 7:19Speaker 2: it's not. There's nothing terribly wrong there with Toronto. You
- 7:22Speaker 2: know that it's gonna be consistent. He's not impacted by
- 7:25Speaker 2: the weather up there in Canada, And the only concerns
- 7:29Speaker 2: I have is how Laddie is going to age. I
- 7:34Speaker 2: think he's one of those players that you know, I
- 7:36Speaker 2: always say he's a he's a big guy, six foot
- 7:40Speaker 2: two forty five, like he's a big guy. I know
- 7:43Speaker 2: it's muscle, But I do worry towards the outer years
- 7:47Speaker 2: of that contract how it's gonna play like a la
- 7:49Speaker 2: Albert pool Hoole's type of thing here where you know,
- 7:52Speaker 2: he he doesn't have that ultra athletic ability. He is
- 7:55Speaker 2: a power average bat, and I do think when they
- 7:59Speaker 2: get the back half of this contract it's gonna be concerning.
- 8:02Speaker 2: But for the short term, I actually really like it.
- 8:05Speaker 3: I think he's.
- 8:06Speaker 2: Locked for thirty homers one hundred RBIs three hundred average
- 8:10Speaker 2: for the next few years, and there's there's nothing wrong
- 8:12Speaker 2: with that. That's what they're paying him for. They're not
- 8:15Speaker 2: actually signing him for fourteen years. They're signing him for
- 8:17Speaker 2: ten and hoping on the back end of the last
- 8:19Speaker 2: four workout something like that. So I'm actually pretty happy
- 8:23Speaker 2: with it. How about you?
- 8:25Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think those are all good considerations.
- 8:27Speaker 1: I mean, it is great to see that, like he's
- 8:30Speaker 1: not gonna end up somewhere that is going to really
- 8:32Speaker 1: kind of I mean, I don't know if he would
- 8:35Speaker 1: have been great in somewhere like New York with the Mets,
- 8:38Speaker 1: just the pressure of that team and that ballpark that
- 8:43Speaker 1: you know, it's great to see him back with Toronto
- 8:45Speaker 1: for some of the things that you've said, and who knows,
- 8:48Speaker 1: like it could be a situation too where almost like
- 8:51Speaker 1: the Tigers did this a little bit with Mickey Cabrera,
- 8:53Speaker 1: is that if Vladimir Guerrero starts making runs that round
- 8:57Speaker 1: career milestones, maybe they do tweak that ballpark to help
- 9:01Speaker 1: him out a little bit here and there, that it
- 9:03Speaker 1: might not be too surprising from that perspective. So yeah,
- 9:06Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's going to be like the
- 9:08Speaker 1: number one first baseman off the board and going in
- 9:10Speaker 1: round that like first second round turn pretty often for
- 9:15Speaker 1: you know, at least the next four or five years.
- 9:17Speaker 1: And I think it can consistently value him like that
- 9:19Speaker 1: knowing that he's going to be stuck as a blue Jay.
- 9:23Speaker 1: So all right, let's get into the next transaction, the
- 9:26Speaker 1: next extension that we have who subsequently got hurt, which
- 9:31Speaker 1: so we'll kind of get into both prongs there. We
- 9:33Speaker 1: have Jackson Merrill, outfielder for the San Diego Padres, who
- 9:37Speaker 1: signed an extension for one hundred and thirty five million
- 9:40Speaker 1: dollar guarantee takes him all the way through twenty thirty four,
- 9:45Speaker 1: which feels like a totally fake year, and then subsequently,
- 9:51Speaker 1: just yesterday Tuesday, as we're recording here on the Wednesday,
- 9:55Speaker 1: he went down with a strained hamstring and it hit
- 9:57Speaker 1: the il. So they're saying that it's an anything serious,
- 10:01Speaker 1: but ham strings early in the season really concerned me.
- 10:04Speaker 1: So what do you think of this landing spot for
- 10:07Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill? And also, like, what do you foresee his
- 10:12Speaker 1: production being in twenty twenty five now that this hammy
- 10:14Speaker 1: injury is cropped up? Really?
- 10:17Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it was a similar thing with latt.
- 10:19Speaker 2: I like the landing stoft for Meryl. He was gonna
- 10:21Speaker 2: be here for a while anyway, So I think that
- 10:23Speaker 2: that's only good news.
- 10:25Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 10:25Speaker 2: I want to say I'm actually lukewarm on this injury
- 10:27Speaker 2: to a degree, Like there's just something about the reports
- 10:30Speaker 2: come out of it was just almost like he didn't
- 10:32Speaker 2: need to go on the injured list. But it's early
- 10:35Speaker 2: in the season, so we're just gonna go ahead and
- 10:36Speaker 2: do it and force a guy that's like older competitive
- 10:39Speaker 2: not to hurt himself more, which just kind of the
- 10:41Speaker 2: undertones I had no one don't think it might come
- 10:43Speaker 2: out and really said it directly, but I feel kind
- 10:46Speaker 2: of a minimum I l stay maybe two weeks kind
- 10:49Speaker 2: of a scenario here, and so I think it's not
- 10:52Speaker 2: really a big big issue. If somebody is soury on
- 10:55Speaker 2: Meryl and they're willing to let him go because they're
- 10:57Speaker 2: worried about a Hammians injury, time me up all day.
- 11:00Speaker 2: If you're looking to move them, we got a few
- 11:01Speaker 2: leagues together, let's go ahead and have a discussion. I'm
- 11:03Speaker 2: I'm very not concerned about this injury for Merrill. Maybe
- 11:07Speaker 2: a little bit of a hey, let's see when he
- 11:09Speaker 2: gets back, is he's running again. But yeah, I'm kind
- 11:13Speaker 2: of brushing this one aside.
- 11:15Speaker 1: Yeah, and I'm not even like counting on him for
- 11:17Speaker 1: too many bags because the swing is just superb, like
- 11:21Speaker 1: he can put up the power numbers to make his
- 11:24Speaker 1: position from drafts worth it. I do think that, like
- 11:27Speaker 1: you said that, maybe there was a calculus on the
- 11:29Speaker 1: padres when looking at Jackson Merrill's hamstring, seeing that entering
- 11:34Speaker 1: today there were nine to three and one again, so
- 11:35Speaker 1: they're ten to three. You've banked a lot of good
- 11:38Speaker 1: wins for the Padres. That helps soften the blow of
- 11:42Speaker 1: Jackson Merrill going down for a little bit, and they've
- 11:44Speaker 1: got a series coming up against the Rockies. You know,
- 11:48Speaker 1: there's a few other pieces I think at work that
- 11:51Speaker 1: I agree they only put him on the ten day.
- 11:53Speaker 1: I l it should hopefully be just a minimum stay
- 11:56Speaker 1: for Jackson Merrill. Funny part about his kind of track too,
- 12:00Speaker 1: is it has no trade to eight teams. Do you
- 12:05Speaker 1: know what those eight teams are?
- 12:06Speaker 2: I have not looked. It's it's always like the really
- 12:10Speaker 2: bad teams are the really good teams.
- 12:12Speaker 1: It's actually it's really it's all the central teams.
- 12:19Speaker 3: That's a new one.
- 12:19Speaker 2: I don't feel like we usually see that. It's either
- 12:21Speaker 2: like I don't want to go play in the Cellar Dwellers,
- 12:24Speaker 2: so I don't go to play for White Sox, or
- 12:26Speaker 2: I don't want to play in New York, or I
- 12:28Speaker 2: don't want to play in New York, or I want
- 12:29Speaker 2: bargaining power with the top club. So if you want
- 12:31Speaker 2: to send me there I get extra million or something
- 12:33Speaker 2: like that. You have to see somebody said Midwest. I'm sorry,
- 12:38Speaker 2: I don't do the cold stuff like.
- 12:42Speaker 1: It says. It's eight So maybe he would go to Chicago,
- 12:45Speaker 1: but it seems like the other ones are left out,
- 12:48Speaker 1: so that is that's that's good. Okay, Let's get into
- 12:51Speaker 1: our next transaction, another big old extension. And I mean
- 12:55Speaker 1: this is a guy who I think we probably should
- 12:57Speaker 1: have talked about during opening day when he made the
- 13:00Speaker 1: foster in more depth in Boston, and that is Christian
- 13:03Speaker 1: Campbell's second basement there signing an eight year extension that
- 13:07Speaker 1: gets covers all of his arm years and guarantees him
- 13:11Speaker 1: sixty million dollars again more fake years here, runs through
- 13:14Speaker 1: twenty thirty two, with clubs options in twenty thirty three
- 13:18Speaker 1: and twenty thirty four. And honestly, I had no faith
- 13:23Speaker 1: in Christian Campbell making that Red Sox opening day roster,
- 13:26Speaker 1: considering he looked pretty rough in spring training and he
- 13:30Speaker 1: did not seem to be ready for the job, just
- 13:34Speaker 1: considering how quickly he flew through the minor leagues back
- 13:37Speaker 1: in just in twenty twenty four, you know, I think
- 13:39Speaker 1: it was let me check. I'm pretty sure it was
- 13:42Speaker 1: four total levels that he hit. But this year he
- 13:45Speaker 1: has started off hot, slashing three fifty one, four fifty seven,
- 13:50Speaker 1: six point twenty two as we're talking through his first
- 13:52Speaker 1: forty six played appearances almost equal walk in k rates
- 13:58Speaker 1: at seventeen point four percent for the walk grate nineteen
- 14:01Speaker 1: point six percent for the k rate. That is not
- 14:03Speaker 1: the line of a twenty three year old who looked
- 14:06Speaker 1: pretty terrible during springs. So I have to think on
- 14:10Speaker 1: your end, all arrows are up on Christian Campbell in
- 14:13Speaker 1: Dynasty in twenty twenty five because of that, And what
- 14:16Speaker 1: do you think about this landing spot in Boston for
- 14:18Speaker 1: him for the I mean through twenty thirty four nine years.
- 14:23Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm right there with you. We didn't talk about
- 14:26Speaker 2: him much. He didn't look ready. Things weren't there. Clearly
- 14:29Speaker 2: the Red Sox saw something to go with. Maybe it
- 14:32Speaker 2: was they were playing on sign them with an extension anyway,
- 14:34Speaker 2: So why why bother sending them back down?
- 14:38Speaker 3: You know?
- 14:38Speaker 2: And what I'm relatively excited about is this is happening
- 14:43Speaker 2: with him batting like eight or nine in the lineup.
- 14:44Speaker 2: This is batting like five, six, seven, Because there is
- 14:47Speaker 2: a tendency for guys a bat the very bottom of
- 14:50Speaker 2: the lineup, pitchers just to kind of get get through
- 14:52Speaker 2: that part of the lineup with a little more fastballs,
- 14:54Speaker 2: the straight stuff. Guys are pouncing on it, and that
- 14:58Speaker 2: can kind of somewhat inflate stats until they get moved
- 15:01Speaker 2: up in the lineup. They don't, you know, they have
- 15:02Speaker 2: a little bit more, say, attention given to them, And
- 15:07Speaker 2: so I was I was thinking that might be part
- 15:09Speaker 2: of what was going on here. I mean, sure, he's
- 15:11Speaker 2: definitely got a little luck from a baby perspective here,
- 15:15Speaker 2: but he's a fast guy. He should have some of that,
- 15:18Speaker 2: not the four oh seven he's running with right now,
- 15:20Speaker 2: and the exit velocities aren't that strong at this point.
- 15:23Speaker 2: So he's he's you know, he's not blowing the world away,
- 15:26Speaker 2: but he does to your point, for the age, he
- 15:29Speaker 2: looks a lot more comfortable than I expected him to look.
- 15:32Speaker 2: So I'm not calling him a top one hundred hitter
- 15:34Speaker 2: or anything like that yet, but the overall kind of
- 15:38Speaker 2: dynasty stock is up, I think is what's what what's
- 15:42Speaker 2: fair to say, because I think he is showing us
- 15:45Speaker 2: that there's a heck of a lot more talent than
- 15:47Speaker 2: what Spring brought, and some of what he did in
- 15:50Speaker 2: the myners is maybe a little bit more what we
- 15:52Speaker 2: can see. It's just kind of a matter of how
- 15:54Speaker 2: long until he gets fully into the to the throes
- 15:58Speaker 2: of doing that all the time on a consistent basis.
- 16:02Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, I think, and it's let me
- 16:06Speaker 1: see where he ranked on Actually he was the number
- 16:08Speaker 1: one prospect coming into twenty twenty five on the Itch's ranking,
- 16:13Speaker 1: So I think the Itch was all over this as well.
- 16:15Speaker 1: That it's just a really well balanced profile with a
- 16:19Speaker 1: lot of batting average upside too. That I mean, as
- 16:22Speaker 1: a twenty three year old rookie, all the projections are
- 16:26Speaker 1: calling for Campbell to hit in the mid two sixties
- 16:30Speaker 1: and be pretty much a twenty twenty asset right off
- 16:32Speaker 1: the bat. That's crazy at second base, and Campbell's also
- 16:36Speaker 1: getting time in the outfield, so he should pick up
- 16:38Speaker 1: eligibility there. Just a really useful Mookie bets Ish type player.
- 16:43Speaker 1: I think at his peak that certainly a bye if
- 16:47Speaker 1: for some reason he's being floated at all in those
- 16:49Speaker 1: dynasty leagues at a reasonable price. But if you're in
- 16:52Speaker 1: one of those dynasty leagues, please send me an invite
- 16:55Speaker 1: because that would be really cool. Okay, let's move on
- 16:59Speaker 1: to our bit of news that we wanted to highlight,
- 17:04Speaker 1: and that is Chase Dollander, right hander from the Colorado Rockies,
- 17:08Speaker 1: promoted to the big leagues. So this guy was out
- 17:11Speaker 1: of Tennessee, big arm, could have been the number one
- 17:15Speaker 1: overall pick at one point, but then kind of his
- 17:18Speaker 1: last year at Tennessee was not quite as stellar. Fell
- 17:22Speaker 1: luckily to the Rockies at the ninth pick in the
- 17:25Speaker 1: twenty twenty three draft, which is I mean, this is
- 17:27Speaker 1: exactly what the Rockies seem to be doing, is just
- 17:29Speaker 1: kind of trying to bring it as much pitching as possible.
- 17:32Speaker 1: And he's looked really good as he's been doing it
- 17:35Speaker 1: that even in the debut five innings, but the strikeouts
- 17:39Speaker 1: were there. He punched out six in those five innings,
- 17:42Speaker 1: limited the walks. The uri is going to be rough
- 17:45Speaker 1: in Colorado because it just always will be. But is
- 17:48Speaker 1: Dollander somebody that you're actually kind of maybe targeting in
- 17:51Speaker 1: fantasy leagues because of the strikeout upside and knowing that
- 17:55Speaker 1: you can use him on the road.
- 17:57Speaker 2: Yeahub guy that I'm attention to grabbing if cheap I've
- 18:03Speaker 2: been burned enough time by the by the Colorado game
- 18:06Speaker 2: here that I'm not fully jumping with two feet. That said,
- 18:10Speaker 2: he does have a profile that you know with a
- 18:14Speaker 2: cutter with a curveball to change up. He has a
- 18:16Speaker 2: lot of things that play low in the zone, which
- 18:18Speaker 2: is what you need in Colorado. So I think that
- 18:21Speaker 2: is intriguing that if if somebody's gonna be successful in Colorado,
- 18:25Speaker 2: it's this profile of the guy like dull Ender, So
- 18:28Speaker 2: I think it's worth going After that said, it still
- 18:32Speaker 2: has the Colorado aspect, So I'm not jumping up and down.
- 18:35Speaker 2: I'm not throwing a big.
- 18:36Speaker 3: Fab bot out there.
- 18:37Speaker 1: Like.
- 18:37Speaker 2: It's just there's there's too much at stake, too much
- 18:40Speaker 2: risk here that you it's like a fifty to fifty
- 18:42Speaker 2: with the what park you're thrown in. He's still a
- 18:44Speaker 2: young prospect, he still has some control things to figure out, Like,
- 18:47Speaker 2: there's enough variability of outcomes. It's not like a guy
- 18:50Speaker 2: that you look at and be like, yes, he's gonna
- 18:53Speaker 2: be ready.
- 18:54Speaker 3: Absolutely, if we were.
- 18:55Speaker 2: Talking about almost any other team that he was coming
- 18:57Speaker 2: up with, I would say, oh, yeah, there's a little
- 19:00Speaker 2: risk with the with the profile he walks a few
- 19:03Speaker 2: too many, you know, things like that, But I'd be like, yeah,
- 19:05Speaker 2: those are things you can you can deal with that
- 19:08Speaker 2: Colorado aspect. I you just my Campton will tell you
- 19:12Speaker 2: you just can't get through it.
- 19:13Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's true. And it is like I think
- 19:17Speaker 1: that I'm in the same boat with you that if
- 19:19Speaker 1: you can find a space where you can really stream
- 19:21Speaker 1: him for those away starts and avoid all home starts,
- 19:26Speaker 1: then maybe I'm picking up Dolander. But it is tough
- 19:29Speaker 1: because that era and whip risk pitching in Colorado is
- 19:34Speaker 1: just really really brutal, and it's not the type of
- 19:38Speaker 1: risk that like you want to be toying around with. Plus, honestly,
- 19:42Speaker 1: usually I'm already kind of like on that edge of
- 19:45Speaker 1: like you know, my teams that I'm pushing it usually
- 19:47Speaker 1: a little bit on the on the whip in ra
- 19:49Speaker 1: because I'm trying to find cheap late game strikeouts, and
- 19:53Speaker 1: so once you're starting to introduce like a Rockies pitcher
- 19:57Speaker 1: to that, it doesn't work with the way I strategized.
- 20:00Speaker 1: But certainly I can find use case scenarios for him,
- 20:03Speaker 1: especially if you are desperate in like a K nine
- 20:06Speaker 1: league or something like that, that that's probably a better
- 20:09Speaker 1: use case for him. But I think it's got to
- 20:10Speaker 1: be just the right narrow path to add Dollander to
- 20:14Speaker 1: a fantasy team.
- 20:15Speaker 2: I think you have to know yourself, because I know myself,
- 20:18Speaker 2: and it's it gets so easy. He has two good
- 20:20Speaker 2: starts and then you see him facing the Marlins in Colorado,
- 20:24Speaker 2: You're sitting there going, what how it can't go wrong,
- 20:28Speaker 2: it can't go wrong, And then you know, and then
- 20:30Speaker 2: he's brilliant, and then the next time you're like, well,
- 20:35Speaker 2: the last time, and then he shelled for eight runs
- 20:37Speaker 2: in like a third of an inny.
- 20:38Speaker 3: Right.
- 20:38Speaker 2: It's that's the kind of volatility that like if you
- 20:41Speaker 2: if you can truly say, I'm never gonna start him
- 20:43Speaker 2: in Colorado and I'm only gonna start in good matchups away. Sure.
- 20:48Speaker 2: I just that takes a lot of discipline, and I've
- 20:51Speaker 2: never seen folks be able to be that disciplined. When
- 20:53Speaker 2: you see a success here there, if you miss one
- 20:55Speaker 2: of those, it just draws you in.
- 20:58Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Well, let's get into a few injuries outside
- 21:03Speaker 1: of the Jackson Merrill injury that I think are probably
- 21:05Speaker 1: most impactful to our fantasy leagues out there, just in
- 21:09Speaker 1: terms of length of time and just the players that
- 21:12Speaker 1: are involved. We have had a lot. I mean we
- 21:15Speaker 1: alluded to it a little bit earlier and we talked
- 21:18Speaker 1: about it before we started recording that. Like, it has
- 21:20Speaker 1: been a bit of a bloodbath over the past twenty
- 21:22Speaker 1: four hours. If you've been watching those news reports come
- 21:25Speaker 1: out that you know, we've got all sorts of injuries
- 21:28Speaker 1: to the likes of like Zach Kaflin, Ryan Bliss, Tyler Stodistrom,
- 21:32Speaker 1: like removed with a strained calf but playing today. So like,
- 21:38Speaker 1: it's a very long list, and I wouldn't be surprised
- 21:40Speaker 1: if you've got a team out there that could be decimated. Actually,
- 21:44Speaker 1: I'm looking at my TGFBI squad right now. It's in
- 21:48Speaker 1: dire straits in terms of some of the injuries that
- 21:51Speaker 1: I've hit that squad. So certainly checking me out on
- 21:54Speaker 1: the on the weekend with the waiver wire calm, because
- 21:57Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be plenty of needs on teams
- 21:59Speaker 1: out there. So the big ones that are especially like
- 22:03Speaker 1: we're looking at maybe season ending injuries here. The first one,
- 22:07Speaker 1: pitcher Renodo Lopez left was shelved with just like shoulder soreness.
- 22:13Speaker 1: They underwent an Arthur's scopic surgery on that right shoulder
- 22:16Speaker 1: for Lopez, who was coming off of a brilliant season
- 22:19Speaker 1: last year, transitioning from the bullpen to the starring rotation
- 22:23Speaker 1: in Atlanta, put up a one ninety nine year array
- 22:25Speaker 1: over one hundred and thirty five and two thirds innings,
- 22:28Speaker 1: did not look right during the spring, did not look
- 22:31Speaker 1: right during his first start, and now is going to
- 22:34Speaker 1: be shelved for at least twelve weeks. But when you're
- 22:37Speaker 1: talking Arthur scrophics, that's a tough way to say arthoscopic
- 22:42Speaker 1: shoulder surgery, especially back to back shoulder. In arthoscopic, you're
- 22:46Speaker 1: not looking at maybe like the highest certainty of somebody returning,
- 22:51Speaker 1: like even in the season that like that twelve week
- 22:54Speaker 1: scenario is very I think hopeful for Lopez. But you
- 22:59Speaker 1: are the pictured injury injury guru guy. Is Lopez somebody
- 23:03Speaker 1: that you would be using one of your eye ol
- 23:05Speaker 1: slots on.
- 23:07Speaker 2: Nope, we're done, No, No, but pitture injury guy, and
- 23:11Speaker 2: somebody who has I had Artis scot Picks shoulder surgery
- 23:13Speaker 2: during his baseball career. Twelve weeks is aggressive And the
- 23:17Speaker 2: thing with that type of surgery is it might be
- 23:20Speaker 2: a twelve weeks before he can come back and start throwing.
- 23:23Speaker 3: It's gonna be.
- 23:24Speaker 2: Another probably month or two where you can truly get
- 23:27Speaker 2: the full strength back because a shoulder you lose a
- 23:30Speaker 2: lot of strength and a lot of ability to really
- 23:35Speaker 2: push through. So I think he's probably four or five
- 23:37Speaker 2: months away from being what he is right now. Even
- 23:40Speaker 2: though he might come back start rehabbing things like that,
- 23:42Speaker 2: I think it's gonna take time for him even being
- 23:44Speaker 2: back in the majors before the strength is truly there.
- 23:47Speaker 2: So I'm out Ronaldo Lopez. If anything, this is good
- 23:50Speaker 2: news for one of our buddies, A J. Smith Shower,
- 23:53Speaker 2: because with Spencer Strider likely back within the next week,
- 23:58Speaker 2: Shaver was clearly the guy that was gonna get sent
- 24:01Speaker 2: down unless they went to a six man rotation, which
- 24:03Speaker 2: I don't think they were gonna do, And that means,
- 24:06Speaker 2: you know, introducing Bryce Elder of the conversation means he
- 24:10Speaker 2: can go back away from the conversation uh pretty quickly there,
- 24:14Speaker 2: because I think that the Braves will be very, very
- 24:18Speaker 2: thrilled to have a top of the rotation here with Sale,
- 24:21Speaker 2: Strider and Schwellenbach and Ronaldo will not likely be best
- 24:25Speaker 2: that significantly.
- 24:26Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, And I mean I think the other worry
- 24:28Speaker 1: too with Lopez if you're in like a situation where
- 24:32Speaker 1: you have him and a keeper of dynasty league, is
- 24:35Speaker 1: they might just convert him right back into a bullpen
- 24:38Speaker 1: arm that given that's actually been the sore spot on
- 24:41Speaker 1: this Atlanta roster going like during the beginning of this
- 24:46Speaker 1: awful start for them, as they're two to eight while
- 24:48Speaker 1: we're talking here, and like their playoff odds are just
- 24:51Speaker 1: sinking super super fast, and you're looking at that bullpen.
- 24:57Speaker 1: It was not great coming into the season. It's been
- 24:59Speaker 1: proven and to be not great. I wouldn't be surprised
- 25:02Speaker 1: if they just send Lopez back to the bullpen, given
- 25:05Speaker 1: the just significance of this surgery and knowing how quickly
- 25:09Speaker 1: the Braves can put together pitching on the fly. That
- 25:13Speaker 1: you know, they've still got hrston waldrup around, They've got
- 25:16Speaker 1: other guys coming through the system, Dylan Dodd's still hanging around,
- 25:21Speaker 1: and so like, actually they have Chad cool down at
- 25:23Speaker 1: Triple A. That's kind of sometimes getting deep into these
- 25:27Speaker 1: roster resource pages is while I know it's a great
- 25:31Speaker 1: time Owen Murphy, we'll be coming back here from Tommy
- 25:35Speaker 1: Johnson soon, so like they do have a lot of
- 25:38Speaker 1: depth that they might just convert Lopez to a reliever
- 25:41Speaker 1: going forward. So I'd be very cautious with Lopez in
- 25:44Speaker 1: any situation any leagues going forward. Okay, let's get into
- 25:49Speaker 1: another shoulder injury that's going to keep out the player
- 25:52Speaker 1: right now, it says twelve weeks, but I don't know.
- 25:55Speaker 1: He might be undergoing surgery on his shoulder after injuring
- 25:59Speaker 1: it on maybe the catch of the year. Victor Roblace,
- 26:03Speaker 1: outfielder for the Seattle Mariners, broke his left shoulder diving
- 26:08Speaker 1: into the right field net in San Francisco, like just
- 26:11Speaker 1: going full bore, like full steam ahead, trying to get
- 26:15Speaker 1: the ball, managed to catch it, which is kind of
- 26:17Speaker 1: crazy that like he broke his shoulder and still managed
- 26:21Speaker 1: to hold onto it. This does remind me a little bit.
- 26:24Speaker 1: It was around this time last year that Trevor's story
- 26:26Speaker 1: broke his shoulder as well and made a furious comeback
- 26:31Speaker 1: to get back on the field in twenty twenty four
- 26:33Speaker 1: and it has been solid in this season. So do
- 26:38Speaker 1: you think that roe Blace could do that here for
- 26:40Speaker 1: twenty twenty five or you again out just because of
- 26:44Speaker 1: the significant significance of shoulder injuries to the game of baseball.
- 26:49Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think there's a really good comparison
- 26:52Speaker 2: to the Trevor stories is that Robles could be back,
- 26:54Speaker 2: he could still be valuable because just like Story even
- 26:57Speaker 2: last year, the value was the speed, not the power.
- 27:01Speaker 2: And so rob lists like he looks like a man
- 27:04Speaker 2: possessed playing in Seattle. To be honest, like, I just
- 27:07Speaker 2: I've even looked at it recently and I'm like, I
- 27:09Speaker 2: just don't believe it. Like we've seen the same guy
- 27:11Speaker 2: in Washington for like seven eight years and he just
- 27:14Speaker 2: never seemed to find it, and all of a sudden
- 27:16Speaker 2: he's in Seattle. He looks just like a reborn player.
- 27:19Speaker 2: It's just it's amazing. So I'm am I wasting a
- 27:22Speaker 2: DLS or an IL spot on. I'm not sure if
- 27:26Speaker 2: I've got one open, I'll keep him. If it kind
- 27:28Speaker 2: of starts the clog up, which is likely the way
- 27:31Speaker 2: the game's played these days, I'm fine letting him go,
- 27:35Speaker 2: you know, But like I said, they'd probably be more
- 27:36Speaker 2: in that roto league with a category for steals where
- 27:39Speaker 2: I'd be looking to hold on to him because he
- 27:41Speaker 2: gets back at the end of the season. He could
- 27:43Speaker 2: easily steal you know, ten bases in you know September
- 27:47Speaker 2: type of thing and make a difference. But I'm not
- 27:50Speaker 2: holding out too much there because there won't be power
- 27:53Speaker 2: that's not gonna come back for a little time, and
- 27:57Speaker 2: they're gonna want to be real careful with the guy
- 27:59Speaker 2: that they're respecting a decent amount of. And you can
- 28:02Speaker 2: see how he plays this. This catch was, to your point, phenomenal,
- 28:06Speaker 2: but that's also how he plays. It wouldn't take much
- 28:08Speaker 2: for him to hurt himself again if they rushed him back.
- 28:11Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that totally makes sense. Okay, next
- 28:14Speaker 1: injury we have is one that just broke this morning.
- 28:19Speaker 1: Starting pitcher from the Chicago Cubs, Justin Steele, placed on
- 28:22Speaker 1: the injured list with elbow tendonitis. I believe he was
- 28:26Speaker 1: dealing with something similar last year. His elbow has been
- 28:29Speaker 1: barking for a couple of years. I think we know
- 28:31Speaker 1: where this is headed. I think it just feels like
- 28:34Speaker 1: it's only a matter of time before the other shoe
- 28:37Speaker 1: drops in terms of a Justin Steele Tommy John injury.
- 28:40Speaker 1: Also kind of funny looking on roster resource at the
- 28:42Speaker 1: back to back transactions for the Cubs three twenty nine
- 28:48Speaker 1: sent Cody Petits starting pitcher, to the Orioles for cash,
- 28:51Speaker 1: then had to put Justin Steele on the eye out
- 28:55Speaker 1: that I bet, I bet they wish they had puts
- 28:58Speaker 1: Heat back right now. But it is that where you're
- 29:01Speaker 1: seeing this going with Steele. No no need to waste
- 29:04Speaker 1: an injury spot because it's likely a busted elbow. Or
- 29:07Speaker 1: are you still holding out hope that maybe he battles
- 29:10Speaker 1: through this.
- 29:11Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna put him in the Kyle Bradish territory
- 29:13Speaker 2: from last year, which is we know where this is going.
- 29:17Speaker 2: I might be able to steak out a few more
- 29:18Speaker 2: starts because you think it's still worth it, and Justin
- 29:21Speaker 2: Steel's talents enough picture that I'm not, you know, casting
- 29:24Speaker 2: them off right now. I don't think he has almost
- 29:27Speaker 2: any trade value because you know, you can just tell
- 29:30Speaker 2: the wheels are about to come off. But his results
- 29:33Speaker 2: so far this year have been just what they always are,
- 29:37Speaker 2: And so yeah, I get the eras a little bummed
- 29:39Speaker 2: right now, but that's due to some ridiculously terrible luck
- 29:43Speaker 2: from a home run for flyball rate, his velocity is
- 29:47Speaker 2: down a little bit, which is a little more concerning
- 29:48Speaker 2: than what we saw was Bradish because Bradish's velossit did
- 29:51Speaker 2: not generally drop too terribly much. But I think I
- 29:54Speaker 2: can sneak out a few more starts from Steel here
- 29:59Speaker 2: because he's a huge power pitcher. He's still gonna be
- 30:01Speaker 2: able to get by on pitchability. And then we're gonna
- 30:04Speaker 2: talk come back in about six weeks and talking about
- 30:06Speaker 2: Kyle Kyle Steels having time of John Sursury. So that's
- 30:09Speaker 2: just a prediction. I think that's You're right, that's where
- 30:12Speaker 2: it's headed. But I think we can get us sneak
- 30:14Speaker 2: a little.
- 30:14Speaker 1: Bit more out of him. Yeah, And it's just it's
- 30:17Speaker 1: really fascinating. I mean, I can see why the Cubs
- 30:20Speaker 1: are doing it because he's still like on his arbitration contract.
- 30:23Speaker 1: He's not a free agent until twenty twenty eight, so
- 30:25Speaker 1: they're just trying to juice as much of the arm
- 30:28Speaker 1: as they can. But yeah, it does feel like Steele
- 30:31Speaker 1: needs a more long term solution for that left elbow. Okay,
- 30:36Speaker 1: Well that's gonna wrap up just kind of the regular
- 30:38Speaker 1: baseball news. I know there's a ton more out there,
- 30:40Speaker 1: but I wanted to get into a couple of bits
- 30:43Speaker 1: of fun for us because I guess this is still
- 30:46Speaker 1: baseball news but not impacting our fantasy game. We usually
- 30:50Speaker 1: like at the end of these news and notes to
- 30:52Speaker 1: have a spot for tributes send offs if we need to,
- 30:55Speaker 1: and we got a big one. Since we last talked,
- 30:57Speaker 1: our boy lance Lynn has retired. I know Michael Bauman
- 31:01Speaker 1: over at Pangrafts put up a great elogy towards Lyn's career.
- 31:06Speaker 1: He was always lance Lynn's number one fan. I've always
- 31:10Speaker 1: had fond feelings for lance Lynn. I've actually texted some
- 31:13Speaker 1: of our friends that we know it's a little bit
- 31:16Speaker 1: of hu brists. I think after the season that he
- 31:19Speaker 1: had with the Rangers in his trade to the White Sox,
- 31:22Speaker 1: I was making the argument for an outside shot at
- 31:24Speaker 1: a lance Lynn Hall of Fame chance, Like you know,
- 31:27Speaker 1: if he had just rattled off a couple of cy
- 31:29Speaker 1: Young's there and he would, He's gonna be way up
- 31:32Speaker 1: there in terms of like guys from the twenty twenties
- 31:36Speaker 1: who had the most wins, Like he's gonna show up
- 31:38Speaker 1: on a lot of leader boards. It's gonna be Obviously
- 31:41Speaker 1: he's not a Hall of Fame right now, but I'm
- 31:44Speaker 1: gonna miss Lancelyn. He was always a treat to watch
- 31:47Speaker 1: on the mound, just the different fastballs, the way that
- 31:50Speaker 1: he was able to be athletic but still like have
- 31:54Speaker 1: the body of some dude that you see just slamming
- 31:57Speaker 1: beers at your bowling alley. The long beard. He was
- 32:01Speaker 1: a great quote usually and he's just like a giant,
- 32:06Speaker 1: giant man. He was like six' six two eighty. Plus
- 32:10Speaker 1: i'm gonna miss Lance, lann what about?
- 32:11Speaker 2: You, YEAH i absolutely, am like my. LIFE i would
- 32:16Speaker 2: say my first memories of Lance lann were back in
- 32:18Speaker 2: that twals eleventh season when he was just got called
- 32:22Speaker 2: up by The. Cardinals they were making The World series,
- 32:24Speaker 2: push and here's this burly guy just coming out of the,
- 32:27Speaker 2: bullpen just throwing gas and like he just he just
- 32:31Speaker 2: looked like somebody that you did not want to mess,
- 32:33Speaker 2: with and you also had no idea what he, Was,
- 32:36Speaker 2: like who is going to be? About was this a
- 32:38Speaker 2: flash in the? Pan was this some? Guy and he
- 32:41Speaker 2: turned it into an amazing, Career like you have to
- 32:43Speaker 2: give him. Credit, uh he was in the big leagues
- 32:45Speaker 2: for a long long. Time to your, point one hundred
- 32:50Speaker 2: and forty three wins over that. Career, yeah that's THAT'S
- 32:54Speaker 2: i don't think many people would guess that From lance
- 32:56Speaker 2: Lind he won one hundred and forty three games across his.
- 32:59Speaker 2: Career that's just. Phenomenal you, know he probably had his best,
- 33:03Speaker 2: years you, know probably early With Saint, louis but he
- 33:07Speaker 2: was always a, valuable valuable player and So i'm Truly
- 33:11Speaker 2: i'm actually surprised he didn't get a job coming into twenty.
- 33:14Speaker 2: Five and BUT i give him. Respect he knew and
- 33:17Speaker 2: to hang it up and said it's it's, over. Folks
- 33:19Speaker 2: i'm fine with. That moving.
- 33:21Speaker 1: On, yeah and of three seventy four career ra over
- 33:25Speaker 1: two thousand and six and a third, innings that's that's.
- 33:29Speaker 1: Impressive and especially he pitched through that rappitball era in twenty.
- 33:34Speaker 1: Nineteen actually that was his best year six point eight
- 33:37Speaker 1: fanografts four when HE i think it was the second
- 33:40Speaker 1: place finish for the young with The rangers that. Year
- 33:42Speaker 1: it was an insane season watching him pitch that. Year but,
- 33:46Speaker 1: yeah got, Speed, lancelon will miss. You you've got a
- 33:49Speaker 1: couple of fans here on this, podcast so best of
- 33:52Speaker 1: luck in your. Retirement, okay let's get into some baseball card,
- 33:56Speaker 1: talk because things have gotten a little crazy on the
- 33:59Speaker 1: schedule since we've last, Talked tops And panini have just
- 34:03Speaker 1: kind of thrown everything against the wall in terms of
- 34:05Speaker 1: the twenty twenty five. Releases now that they got those
- 34:08Speaker 1: twenty twenty Four Heritage High number sets out the, door
- 34:13Speaker 1: we Have bowman twenty twenty five pre orders that Hit
- 34:17Speaker 1: tops and we are linking to that in the show.
- 34:20Speaker 1: Notes if there are any left by the time you
- 34:22Speaker 1: listen to this, podcast let me, check BECAUSE i.
- 34:25Speaker 2: Checked there's only retail only retail Boxes Value box.
- 34:29Speaker 1: HOUT i, MEAN i can't. BELIEVE i GUESS i can
- 34:34Speaker 1: believe it's sold out because it always. Does but did
- 34:36Speaker 1: you see the pricing before it did sold? Out it
- 34:38Speaker 1: was two forty nine for a hobby, box five hundred
- 34:42Speaker 1: for A, jumbo and, like, yikes right For bowman Paper.
- 34:48Speaker 2: You say, that but it feels like relative what's been
- 34:51Speaker 2: in the past is actually a little cheaper over the
- 34:53Speaker 2: last few. Years, Yes and SO i was actually looked at, him, like,
- 34:55Speaker 2: oh it's only two forty for a hobby, box like
- 34:58Speaker 2: for the one. Auto, YEAH i mean it's it's definitely
- 35:02Speaker 2: a dart throw a product THAT i THINK i have
- 35:05Speaker 2: maybe the Opened bowman one, time like back in the
- 35:07Speaker 2: day when it wasn't such a such an expensive. Product but,
- 35:13Speaker 2: yeah it's it's a it's a, tough tough, sled it's
- 35:16Speaker 2: a lot of, risk but it's also one of the
- 35:18Speaker 2: most popular products that there is out. There everybody loves A.
- 35:21Speaker 2: Bowman everyone loves the chance to get your chrome, prospects
- 35:27Speaker 2: things like, that and then you know the the litany
- 35:30Speaker 2: and we'll go through them at some point here of
- 35:31Speaker 2: parallels and things like that that you now have with
- 35:34Speaker 2: Your bowman. First so exciting to see it coming out
- 35:37Speaker 2: to your point, surprise and not that the pre orders
- 35:40Speaker 2: almost already sold out within a.
- 35:41Speaker 1: Day, YEAH i mean it's gonna be just an expensive
- 35:46Speaker 1: product that like it's GONNA i just don't see how
- 35:49Speaker 1: you can make your money back doing that CONSIDERING i,
- 35:51Speaker 1: mean it does Have Charlie condon in the, product which
- 35:55Speaker 1: as along with, hasting'smatte but like still you're talking just
- 35:59Speaker 1: Regular bowman, paper not any sort of chrome nothing in
- 36:03Speaker 1: terms OF i, mean there will be rookie sak, rookies
- 36:06Speaker 1: BUT i don't believe he will have. Autographs let me
- 36:10Speaker 1: check the auto. List never, mind he will have rookies
- 36:14Speaker 1: so that is probably another big poll there, too but
- 36:17Speaker 1: good luck pulling Ever Okae sisaki Chrome rookie autograph out
- 36:21Speaker 1: Of Bowman paper twenty twenty. Five you're also looking at
- 36:24Speaker 1: thirty dollars blaster, boxes which is pretty. EXPENSIVE i, mean,
- 36:29Speaker 1: unfortunately it's going to be one That i'd probably have
- 36:31Speaker 1: to sit out just at these prices and considering how
- 36:34Speaker 1: big the print run is going to, Be i'll be
- 36:37Speaker 1: searching through dollar boxes for some of those first and
- 36:39Speaker 1: stuff that get buried in. There but just kind of
- 36:42Speaker 1: unfortunate because LIKE i think that's the way the rest
- 36:44Speaker 1: of this twenty twenty five pricing is going to shape,
- 36:46Speaker 1: up and it might be a pretty follow year in
- 36:49Speaker 1: terms of me ripping. Product what about?
- 36:51Speaker 2: You, YEAH i mean this is the kind that you,
- 36:53Speaker 2: know IF i was gonna rip, it it would be
- 36:56Speaker 2: a value. Box, unfortunately you don't really seem value boxes
- 37:01Speaker 2: at like called retail price out in the. Wild that
- 37:04Speaker 2: often you're not going to find that targeted. Stuff AND
- 37:05Speaker 2: i held it carried. There but even in your local hobby,
- 37:10Speaker 2: shops depends on the kinds you, have generally they're getting
- 37:12Speaker 2: a mark up there as. Well so that value box
- 37:14Speaker 2: that you're getting thirty From tops dot com is probably
- 37:17Speaker 2: going for about forty in most of your your hobby.
- 37:20Speaker 2: Shops so at that, point if it was thirty, BUCKS
- 37:23Speaker 2: i might pick up one or two just to just
- 37:24Speaker 2: to you, know take a spin for, it because it
- 37:26Speaker 2: is a cool. Product it is fun to see that
- 37:27Speaker 2: some of the prospects for the first time to your,
- 37:30Speaker 2: point Having roki in, there there's some cool stuff. There but,
- 37:33Speaker 2: YEAH i think this is uh for your casual, collector
- 37:38Speaker 2: maybe your middle level. Collector this is the kind of
- 37:41Speaker 2: one to sit.
- 37:41Speaker 1: Out, yeah and it's a pre solid. DESIGN i think
- 37:44Speaker 1: it's very it's a Very bowman feeling design for twenty twenty.
- 37:47Speaker 1: Five but we'll probably have a bigger over for you
- 37:50Speaker 1: on the product just because it is such a major
- 37:52Speaker 1: release in a couple of. Weeks it is officially coming
- 37:55Speaker 1: out On may, seventh but LIKE i, said the pre
- 37:58Speaker 1: order was already up On Tops value box is still,
- 38:01Speaker 1: available but everything else has been wiped. Clean and then
- 38:05Speaker 1: for the rest of the, schedule we've got a couple
- 38:07Speaker 1: MORE i GUESS i should say a few more because
- 38:10Speaker 1: it's a handful of twenty twenty five products that have
- 38:14Speaker 1: been on the, schedule but when you look at the
- 38:17Speaker 1: show notes for the normal schedule THAT i usually, HAVE
- 38:19Speaker 1: i put maybe because they're kind of who knows in
- 38:22Speaker 1: terms of they're on the, schedule but the likelihood THAT
- 38:27Speaker 1: tops delivers on them is pretty. Low we HAVE Tops,
- 38:29Speaker 1: tribute which had a pre order during the time that
- 38:33Speaker 1: we were off for a couple. Weeks twenty twenty Five
- 38:36Speaker 1: tribute possibly slated to come out On april twenty. Third
- 38:40Speaker 1: twenty twenty FIVE Tops, heritage so back to back high
- 38:45Speaker 1: number And heritage come almost in the same, month is
- 38:48Speaker 1: slated For april, thirtieth along with twenty twenty FIVE Tops
- 38:52Speaker 1: Chrome black on the. Thirtieth then we, have LIKE i
- 38:55Speaker 1: Said bowman On may, Seventh series two FROM tops lign
- 39:00Speaker 1: up For june twenty fifth Or june twenty twenty five,
- 39:03Speaker 1: here so that is just about on time for series,
- 39:07Speaker 1: two which is, good And Panini Generous baseball On may twenty,
- 39:12Speaker 1: first so a pretty pack. Schedule we'll see how Well
- 39:16Speaker 1: Paninian tops can stick to. It we will be tracking
- 39:19Speaker 1: that over the next couple. Weeks but with that we're
- 39:22Speaker 1: going to wrap up news and notes and. Everything we're
- 39:24Speaker 1: going to take a short break and then we're going
- 39:26Speaker 1: to be back just to kind of talk hittery, evaluation
- 39:29Speaker 1: hot and cold hitters that we are adjusting up or
- 39:32Speaker 1: down for their performances so far in twenty twenty. Five
- 39:35Speaker 1: so stick, around all, Right welcome back. Everybody, so as
- 39:55Speaker 1: we introed at the top of this, episode we're going
- 39:58Speaker 1: to get into discussion some hitters that have either started
- 40:02Speaker 1: off hot or. Cold but because of their starts and
- 40:05Speaker 1: some of the information that is available to us now
- 40:07Speaker 1: Through Baseball, savant in addition to just kind of what
- 40:11Speaker 1: we've seen with our eyes and you, know what we
- 40:13Speaker 1: were kind of expecting coming into the, season we are
- 40:16Speaker 1: adjusting these players maybe up or down from where they
- 40:20Speaker 1: were just a couple of weeks ago when we were drafting,
- 40:23Speaker 1: them because we've started to get you, know not a
- 40:27Speaker 1: ton of, data but at least enough. Data you, know
- 40:29Speaker 1: most players that are starting players have probably passed the
- 40:32Speaker 1: fifty plate appearance threshold at this. Point it gives you
- 40:35Speaker 1: a taste of kind of what can be. Happening, obviously
- 40:38Speaker 1: there's a lot of like weird spring weather mixed in here,
- 40:42Speaker 1: too BUT i think the kind of group of players
- 40:45Speaker 1: that we have, here you can make adjustments going forward
- 40:49Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five based on what we've seen so.
- 40:52Speaker 1: Far so with all those considerations, There, JEREMY i, mean
- 40:55Speaker 1: what sort of indicators when it is this early in
- 40:59Speaker 1: the season for a, player or are you honed in
- 41:01Speaker 1: on more so than, Others like we talked about this
- 41:04Speaker 1: a little bit in spring training with like walk and k,
- 41:08Speaker 1: Rates but that's even a worse sample size in terms
- 41:11Speaker 1: of just quality of, competition number of at, bats number
- 41:15Speaker 1: of plate, appearances and overall environmental like Between arizona And.
- 41:21Speaker 1: Florida now that we actually have like fifty ish plate,
- 41:24Speaker 1: appearances what sort of pieces of information can you glean
- 41:27Speaker 1: from those lines and what do you look at the.
- 41:30Speaker 2: Most, yeah for for, Me i'm looking AT i would
- 41:33Speaker 2: say some statistics and some non statistics from a non statistics,
- 41:37Speaker 2: Perspective i'm looking at like playing time and where they're
- 41:40Speaker 2: where they're at in the. Lineup usually a lot of
- 41:42Speaker 2: this in spring training where guys are all over the
- 41:44Speaker 2: place and you can't quite tell what they're gonna they're gonna.
- 41:48Speaker 3: Do, Uh and you.
- 41:49Speaker 2: Definitely saw that early in the season you had some
- 41:52Speaker 2: GUYS i Think Kyle schworber is a great example where
- 41:55Speaker 2: in spring training he, was you, know by in lead,
- 41:58Speaker 2: off just like you did last, year and then of
- 42:00Speaker 2: a sudden he got like a few games at clean,
- 42:01Speaker 2: up and then he's back mostly to lead, off and
- 42:04Speaker 2: so you're trying to, see like is there a big
- 42:07Speaker 2: change in value based on where guys in the. Lineup,
- 42:10Speaker 2: also barrel, RATES i think is another thing that tends
- 42:13Speaker 2: to stabilize pretty. Quickly you, know it's against a few
- 42:17Speaker 2: weeks to day that that can be. Tough and then
- 42:21Speaker 2: to your, point the k the walk, rates things like,
- 42:23Speaker 2: that they take a little bit longer to, Stabilize BUT
- 42:27Speaker 2: i look at them on the outlier, Perspective like A
- 42:31Speaker 2: k rate that's really, High i'm not too concerned. About
- 42:34Speaker 2: i'm not thrilled about, it But i'm not terribly. Concerned
- 42:36Speaker 2: a walk rate that's really, Low i'm not terribly concerned.
- 42:38Speaker 2: About it's really the opposite when you see a guy
- 42:40Speaker 2: that's been had some strikeout issues in the past that
- 42:43Speaker 2: he's going that first week or two with really seeming
- 42:46Speaker 2: to have good control and not having that, issue or
- 42:48Speaker 2: a guy that's not walked as much and it seems
- 42:50Speaker 2: like he's taking a little bit more walks than you
- 42:52Speaker 2: would be expected so you're seeing maybe those swinging strike
- 42:57Speaker 2: rates or first pitch swing rates things like, that those
- 42:59Speaker 2: dropping then, oh you, Know i'm a little bit more
- 43:02Speaker 2: interested in the approach BECAUSE i know you'll be swinging better.
- 43:05Speaker 2: Pitches so it's it's definitely a mixed bag early in the,
- 43:09Speaker 2: season and at the end of the day all like
- 43:11Speaker 2: can be thrown out because it could be small sample sized.
- 43:12Speaker 2: Bias but those are the kind of things that we're looking.
- 43:15Speaker 1: At. WELL i mean the other thing, too is you
- 43:17Speaker 1: got to act on some of these things pretty quickly
- 43:19Speaker 1: if you want to be able to find just any
- 43:22Speaker 1: sort of edge and fantasy. League SO i think that's
- 43:24Speaker 1: where it is. Important like you've got to be able
- 43:26Speaker 1: to weigh a lot of those factors what you're talking
- 43:29Speaker 1: about with the risk of whether or not it goes
- 43:31Speaker 1: back to. Default and so this is, where like you
- 43:34Speaker 1: there's more of an art to kind of like analyzing
- 43:37Speaker 1: the new, numbers those new kind of bits of information
- 43:40Speaker 1: that you're getting through these fifty played, appearances but also
- 43:44Speaker 1: look at THOSE loresta season projections because, LIKE i, mean
- 43:48Speaker 1: it's REALLY i think what makes fantasy tough in the
- 43:51Speaker 1: modern day environment is that like to be better than
- 43:56Speaker 1: the others in your in your. League you've actually kind
- 43:58Speaker 1: of got it out per form the, projections which is
- 44:02Speaker 1: brutally hard considering the algorithms that are out. There but
- 44:06Speaker 1: you can pick it up if you see like changes
- 44:08Speaker 1: in some of the approach stuff that you've talked.
- 44:09Speaker 2: About, YEAH i think you also have to look back
- 44:12Speaker 2: at the historicals for a number of these guys and
- 44:14Speaker 2: see what they've done in the. Past like there's guys
- 44:16Speaker 2: that are gonna have slow starts or hot, starts things like,
- 44:18Speaker 2: that and be willing to take the. GAMBLE i was
- 44:20Speaker 2: just talking with the guy in one of our the
- 44:24Speaker 2: comments of the recent, article and he was asking if
- 44:26Speaker 2: he should trade For Marcus, Simeon And i'm sitting here, going, Well,
- 44:29Speaker 2: simeon's you, know always been a kind of the cardiac
- 44:31Speaker 2: kind of. Guy seems like his his metrics are trying
- 44:33Speaker 2: to dropped. Off and he's, Like i'm looking at maybe
- 44:36Speaker 2: making a deal With Kyrine paris For Marcus. Simeon i'm,
- 44:38Speaker 2: like sign me, up do it all. Day like that's
- 44:40Speaker 2: the perfect kind of deal at this point in, time
- 44:42Speaker 2: because both of them are far off from what their
- 44:45Speaker 2: likely outcome is and even If simon's not who he's,
- 44:48Speaker 2: been he's been a very stable guy over the. Years
- 44:52Speaker 2: even if he's eighty percent of, that you should be
- 44:54Speaker 2: thrilled in that and that kind of. Deal so to your,
- 44:56Speaker 2: point you got to be willing to make make the.
- 44:57Speaker 1: Deals so, yeah AND i MEAN i think so we've
- 45:00Speaker 1: got players both hot and, cold just to see kind
- 45:03Speaker 1: of like on both, sides like do we think that
- 45:06Speaker 1: they'll keep up those hot performances or cold performances or
- 45:10Speaker 1: kind of you, know what they might turn back into
- 45:13Speaker 1: if there if we think they're going to be kind
- 45:15Speaker 1: of converting back into what we've seen in previous. Years
- 45:18Speaker 1: so let's kick off with this. Discussion the first guy
- 45:22Speaker 1: we've got is maybe this has been if we've discussed
- 45:26Speaker 1: this last, week it would have been maybe a little bit.
- 45:28Speaker 1: Different but he has heated up a little. Bit AND
- 45:31Speaker 1: i mean part of it is he just kind of
- 45:33Speaker 1: feasted on The cardinals bullpen that wore down over a
- 45:36Speaker 1: double header On. Sunday that, is third Baseman Rafael devers
- 45:40Speaker 1: from The Boston Red sox now slashing two forty, four
- 45:43Speaker 1: three sixty, four three seventy. Eight but that three seventy
- 45:46Speaker 1: eight would be a career. Low it's a one THIRTEEN
- 45:50Speaker 1: wrc plus the thirty two point seven percent k rate
- 45:54Speaker 1: is a career. High because what was it he opened
- 45:57Speaker 1: like when this is first nine team plate, appearances was
- 46:01Speaker 1: fifteen k's or something. Crazy it's a guy who barely
- 46:05Speaker 1: got any spring training time because of his shoulder. Issue
- 46:08Speaker 1: and do you think that it is a situation here
- 46:11Speaker 1: At Rafael devers where you're actually worried about injury with
- 46:16Speaker 1: a shoulder or is it just, hey this guy didn't
- 46:18Speaker 1: get enough time in spring training and is just heating. Up,
- 46:22Speaker 1: now what do you Think Rafaeld devers can do for
- 46:24Speaker 1: the rest of twenty twenty?
- 46:25Speaker 2: Five, Yeah i'm lukewarm on On Raffie devers.
- 46:29Speaker 3: HERE i look at what he's.
- 46:30Speaker 2: Done he did have a good game against the Car.
- 46:33Speaker 2: Cardinals you can't even argue that the doubleheader was that.
- 46:36Speaker 2: Good but beyond, that it's really been. Rough and we
- 46:41Speaker 2: talked about some of those Metrics, earliers like look at
- 46:42Speaker 2: the plate discipline and it's his jumps out and again
- 46:47Speaker 2: this is small samples things like, that there's one thing
- 46:50Speaker 2: that jumps out in his overall. Profile if you're over
- 46:53Speaker 2: like baseball, savant and this is chase. Rate his chase
- 46:56Speaker 2: rate is the best of his career by a massive.
- 46:59Speaker 2: Margin that should be, good, Right, well the reason that that's,
- 47:04Speaker 2: okay or that's that actually is concerning is because his
- 47:07Speaker 2: first pitch swinging rate is massively higher than his the
- 47:10Speaker 2: rest of his. Career he is literally he's doweing almost
- 47:12Speaker 2: fifty percent of the time at the first. Pitch he
- 47:16Speaker 2: is not picking out what he should so if somebody
- 47:19Speaker 2: was it anywhere close to the zone or, off he's,
- 47:21Speaker 2: swinging and that therefore his contact's not as. Strong he's
- 47:26Speaker 2: not maybe he's good of a contact on the good,
- 47:29Speaker 2: uh the good pitches he should. Be he should be
- 47:31Speaker 2: waiting for mistakes to capitalize on. Him and so his
- 47:34Speaker 2: batting and eye just doesn't look. Great some of that
- 47:36Speaker 2: could be the limited spring training, approach But i'm a little,
- 47:43Speaker 2: Concerned like that's for a guy with as much experience for,
- 47:46Speaker 2: him that doesn't feel, Right something feels a little off
- 47:50Speaker 2: if he is all of a sudden. Swinging his is
- 47:52Speaker 2: a career thirty eight percent first pitch swing. Rate it's
- 47:54Speaker 2: at forty nine to one in twenty five and so
- 47:58Speaker 2: like that that is very far Off LIKE i, said
- 48:01Speaker 2: the chase rates down because it didn't have a chance
- 48:03Speaker 2: to chase. Anything pitchers already trying to get the first
- 48:05Speaker 2: pitch strike and that's what he's swinging. At and when
- 48:08Speaker 2: a hitter is swinging at that first pitch and they're
- 48:12Speaker 2: not willing to just take a strike to try to
- 48:13Speaker 2: get comfortable and you, know get their, pitch it's usually
- 48:17Speaker 2: not a recipe for. Success so that's Why i'm kind
- 48:20Speaker 2: of down on that. Watch kind Of i'm dropping them
- 48:22Speaker 2: down a little, bit almost kind of An Austin riley
- 48:24Speaker 2: from last year type of performance drop is kind of
- 48:28Speaker 2: What i'm looking at With devers. HERE i could be completely,
- 48:31Speaker 2: wrong but if somebody is paying me top dollar for
- 48:34Speaker 2: devs or think they try to pull one over on,
- 48:35Speaker 2: Them i'm actually fine with that right, now got?
- 48:38Speaker 1: It, Okay all, Right let's move on to the next
- 48:41Speaker 1: player that we've, got and that is A, heniosuarez third
- 48:45Speaker 1: baseman from The Arizona. Diamondbacks one of the goofiest stat
- 48:50Speaker 1: LINES i think to open the season with a one
- 48:53Speaker 1: fifty three h six five point. Fifty that's a one
- 48:56Speaker 1: THIRTY wrc plus five homers twenty four and a half
- 49:00Speaker 1: percent strikeout, rate which would be amongst his lowest of his.
- 49:04Speaker 1: CAREER i mean he was running like twenty threes at
- 49:06Speaker 1: sometimes In. Cincinnati, well, yeah that season when he popped
- 49:10Speaker 1: forty nine bombs is so. Crazy fourteen point three percent
- 49:14Speaker 1: walk rate and also a oh forty three babbup For
- 49:19Speaker 1: suarez so. Far part of that is also because like
- 49:21Speaker 1: homers don't count for, babbubs so like of his limited,
- 49:26Speaker 1: hits you, know he only has six hits five or.
- 49:28Speaker 1: Homers that's driving his babbub being so low. There but
- 49:32Speaker 1: x batting average for the season right now is two
- 49:38Speaker 1: sixty eight compared to the one, fifty SO i mean
- 49:41Speaker 1: he's stinging the. Ball it's a crazy hard hit rate
- 49:44Speaker 1: sixty four, percent twenty five percent baill rate out of
- 49:48Speaker 1: Ao Henio. Suarez last, year he finished strong down the.
- 49:53Speaker 1: Stretch it was a tough start in the first, half
- 49:55Speaker 1: but like was a top like twenty ish BAT i
- 49:59Speaker 1: think in the second half blast year it was insane
- 50:02Speaker 1: and out of nowhere to be able to get to
- 50:05Speaker 1: that two fifty six average with thirty bombs and one
- 50:07Speaker 1: hundred and one RBIs last year because it was like
- 50:10Speaker 1: a monster second round performance and one in the other
- 50:13Speaker 1: he was totally. Unknownable so which suere is do you
- 50:17Speaker 1: think will show up for the rest of twenty twenty.
- 50:19Speaker 2: Five, YEAH i, Honestly i'm actually in On, uhenosuarez which
- 50:24Speaker 2: is like the first time ever because like he actually
- 50:29Speaker 2: seemed to make true improvements at the end of the last,
- 50:32Speaker 2: Season like to your, point he was really really, good
- 50:35Speaker 2: and he brought his striker rates down to like that
- 50:37Speaker 2: twenty five percent mark the whole second half of last,
- 50:39Speaker 2: year and that's what's carried through into this. Year and
- 50:42Speaker 2: if that means that he has seen better pitches and
- 50:44Speaker 2: making better contact all those, pitches then only good things can,
- 50:49Speaker 2: Happen like only good things can happen when you are
- 50:52Speaker 2: swinging at good pitches and actually making. Contact and he's
- 50:55Speaker 2: never been short of. Power So i'm actually in On.
- 50:58Speaker 2: ENEOSUREZ i was a little bit interest and come into the,
- 51:02Speaker 2: season but LIKE i actually had him on one of
- 51:05Speaker 2: my teams and he was like on the bench corner,
- 51:07Speaker 2: infield Like i've been rolling with him the whole. Time
- 51:09Speaker 2: like he there's no questions about. It he is hot right.
- 51:12Speaker 2: Now he is a streaky. Bat so you, know take
- 51:15Speaker 2: that for what it, is but of like all the
- 51:18Speaker 2: hitters out there right, now LIKE i actually trust you
- 51:20Speaker 2: in he A suarez more than a lot of.
- 51:22Speaker 1: Guys, Yeah and it's, LIKE i don't know what it,
- 51:25Speaker 1: is but it does seem sometimes like players like this
- 51:28Speaker 1: where they have contact issues that like as an old,
- 51:32Speaker 1: man they just kind of start finding. It Like Nelson
- 51:35Speaker 1: cruz is a little bit like, This Marcelo azuna is
- 51:37Speaker 1: a little bit like, this WHERE i wonder If suarez
- 51:40Speaker 1: kind of fits in that bucket. Too he had just
- 51:41Speaker 1: seen so many thousands of pitches and he's just, like oh,
- 51:46Speaker 1: YEAH i, MEAN i am just getting better at baseball
- 51:49Speaker 1: a little by little and just kind of like all.
- 51:52Speaker 1: Clicked like especially what you're talking about in time in
- 51:54Speaker 1: terms of those plate approach. Changes that takes lots of
- 51:59Speaker 1: seasoning to be able to turn around that fascinating bat
- 52:02Speaker 1: right now In.
- 52:02Speaker 2: Suarez, Yeah AND i feel like we've seen this this
- 52:05Speaker 2: mold with a handful of batters in the past where
- 52:07Speaker 2: they to your, point they just crushed the ball and
- 52:10Speaker 2: they just strike they just they just didn't have the
- 52:12Speaker 2: best selection and then all of a sudden they just
- 52:14Speaker 2: stopped striking out as. Much and what they do they
- 52:16Speaker 2: Replaced starrik houts with crushed, Balls like it's not rocket science, here,
- 52:20Speaker 2: right and all of.
- 52:21Speaker 3: A, sudden like the stats looks really, good.
- 52:23Speaker 2: Just, like, well, yeah you cut down the, strikeouts but
- 52:25Speaker 2: like eight points of, course if that's just not happening
- 52:28Speaker 2: eight percent of the, time you replace that with the
- 52:31Speaker 2: good quality that was having the rest of the, time
- 52:33Speaker 2: good things. Happen so that's kind of WHAT i feel like.
- 52:35Speaker 3: We got with With suarez.
- 52:36Speaker 2: HERE i, mean he's not he hasn't solved his strike up,
- 52:38Speaker 2: problems don't get me, wrong but he's like not he's
- 52:41Speaker 2: not bottom the league. ANYMORE a few years, ago LIKE
- 52:44Speaker 2: i think it was like twenty, three he was like
- 52:46Speaker 2: the bottom tenth percentile and that was like the best
- 52:49Speaker 2: of his career from a strikeout. Reperspective and now like
- 52:54Speaker 2: this year he's like the fortieth percentile for.
- 52:56Speaker 1: Shockouts that's. Crazy, Yeah, Yeah i'm in On suarez, Too
- 53:00Speaker 1: LIKE i think if you're, getting if you're able to
- 53:02Speaker 1: buy him at a reasonable, Price i'm.
- 53:04Speaker 2: IN i think you still can. TOO i think that
- 53:06Speaker 2: average being one forty, three that's, TRUE i in A
- 53:09Speaker 2: obp and only two twenty.
- 53:10Speaker 3: FOUR i think you.
- 53:11Speaker 2: CAN i think you can get pretty cheap swars with people, Think,
- 53:14Speaker 2: oh he's just got, Hot i'm gonna try to cash
- 53:16Speaker 2: in on, him And i'm fine doing a slight overpay for, Him.
- 53:19Speaker 1: Yeah BECAUSE i mean the power is, Insane like those
- 53:22Speaker 1: five homers are all. Legit so, uh let's move on
- 53:27Speaker 1: to our next, player another third. Baseman so third BASE
- 53:29Speaker 1: i thought was going to be really thin coming into the,
- 53:32Speaker 1: year BUT i think this, guy along With, suarez is
- 53:34Speaker 1: kind of maybe bringing the bottom up a little. Bit
- 53:36Speaker 1: it Is Nolan ronado from The Saint Louis, cardinals who
- 53:39Speaker 1: so far over forty five plate. APPEARANCES i guess he played,
- 53:43Speaker 1: Today SO i should look at the top line on
- 53:45Speaker 1: the fangrafts here over fifty played appearances two eighty, six
- 53:49Speaker 1: four hundred and four to twenty. Nine that's good for
- 53:51Speaker 1: a one twenty six STAR rc. Plus that was a
- 53:54Speaker 1: much better line before he went oh for five to
- 53:56Speaker 1: day In. Pittsburgh but you noticed that a homer and
- 54:01Speaker 1: the walk rate compared to the strikeout rate is. Bananas
- 54:04Speaker 1: it's sixteen percent walk, rate six percent k. Rate what
- 54:08Speaker 1: really fascinates me here on all In ronado is in
- 54:12Speaker 1: terms of the new bat speed metric On baseball's spont
- 54:15Speaker 1: which we just got last. Year he was a guy
- 54:18Speaker 1: where everybody had flagged, like, oh they're totally out On.
- 54:21Speaker 1: Ronado they looks like he's getting old because he was
- 54:23Speaker 1: in the twenty eighth percentile in twenty twenty four for bat.
- 54:27Speaker 1: Speed looks like he did off season training or maybe
- 54:30Speaker 1: was nursing an injury, recently you, know last year of
- 54:34Speaker 1: the year before that bat speed is up to the
- 54:37Speaker 1: sixty third. Percentile so that's kind of made me more
- 54:39Speaker 1: intrigued With. Arnaudo what about, You.
- 54:43Speaker 3: YEAH i, Mean i'm gonna say slightly.
- 54:44Speaker 2: INTRIGUED i feel Like i've been on this bus a
- 54:46Speaker 2: little bit before with aeronauto where he looks, better he looks.
- 54:50Speaker 2: HEALTHY i do think he's got a chip on his
- 54:52Speaker 2: shoulder for sure this, year WHICH i think is. Helping that,
- 54:56Speaker 2: said you definitely have some concerns with the barrel. Rates
- 55:00Speaker 2: only nineteen percentile exit velocities are, down hard hit rates,
- 55:04Speaker 2: Down so it does feel, like but let's be, frank
- 55:08Speaker 2: he's never like as much as great productions he's. Had
- 55:10Speaker 2: he's never been a guy that has these amazing. Metrics
- 55:13Speaker 2: he was just like average across the board and that
- 55:16Speaker 2: just worked out really well for. Him Kind of like
- 55:18Speaker 2: A Lane thomas type of thing going on, here which
- 55:21Speaker 2: is maybe not the best endorsement For, arnado But i'm slightly,
- 55:26Speaker 2: intrigued but not enough That i'm really jumping to make
- 55:30Speaker 2: much of an investment. Here it does feel like he
- 55:33Speaker 2: feels a little more comfortable to, plate BUT i just
- 55:36Speaker 2: still think some of the aging curve it may not
- 55:40Speaker 2: be as bad as it was last year when he you,
- 55:43Speaker 2: know had A wrc plus of one o two sixteen
- 55:47Speaker 2: homers across the. Year he might get back to his
- 55:48Speaker 2: twenty twenty five homer self hitting call it two, seventy
- 55:53Speaker 2: which is is just. Good, Right it's a solid corner and,
- 55:55Speaker 2: field maybe back in third, Baseman But i'm not expecting
- 55:59Speaker 2: a whole lot More.
- 56:00Speaker 1: Fromyornando, okay, YEAH i MEAN i think he's at least
- 56:03Speaker 1: Like rosterboll now in twelve, teamers where maybe he might
- 56:05Speaker 1: not have.
- 56:05Speaker 3: Been, YES i would agree with.
- 56:07Speaker 1: That, Yeah, okay let's get into our another, player a
- 56:12Speaker 1: ex cardinal, here who this. IS i think we saw
- 56:17Speaker 1: some form of this coming because we both picked him
- 56:19Speaker 1: as are like by on THE Nl west, Preview BUT
- 56:23Speaker 1: i don't know IF i saw this. Coming For Tommy,
- 56:25Speaker 1: edmund second baseman from The, dodgers should be getting outfield. Soonish,
- 56:31Speaker 1: yeah he, should because he's playing enough outfield here and
- 56:33Speaker 1: there that he's picked up, eligibility or he should be
- 56:37Speaker 1: picking up eligibility here pretty soon in most. Leagues and
- 56:41Speaker 1: what what is? THIS i cannot unpack this BECAUSE i
- 56:46Speaker 1: don't know what The dodgers. Did Tommy edmund determined him
- 56:49Speaker 1: into two fifty, nine two ninety three five seventy four slug.
- 56:54Speaker 1: Player that's a one thirty SEVEN. Wrc plus he has
- 56:57Speaker 1: five homers in a stolen base Of if he just
- 57:01Speaker 1: completes the rest of his projection from the, bat he
- 57:05Speaker 1: will end up being at twenty twenty five or twenty
- 57:07Speaker 1: five twenty five. Player Tommy edmond is also hitting it
- 57:12Speaker 1: at a fifty four and a half percent hard hit.
- 57:15Speaker 1: Rate he has a thirteen point six percent barrel. Percentage
- 57:20Speaker 1: Is tommy ed been a twenty twenty five or twenty
- 57:22Speaker 1: five twenty five player going into twenty twenty five here
- 57:26Speaker 1: for the rest of the, season or we just sing
- 57:29Speaker 1: an insane hot streak From.
- 57:30Speaker 3: EDMUND i think it's a little. BOTH i think it's
- 57:34Speaker 3: a little. Both, YEAH i wouldn't.
- 57:36Speaker 2: Be surprised for him to be a twenty five twenty five,
- 57:38Speaker 2: Player LIKE i feel like that's on the outer bounds
- 57:41Speaker 2: of the potential. Here definitely seems like a twenty twenty
- 57:44Speaker 2: type of. Guy twenty five to twenty five is. Possible
- 57:48Speaker 2: AND i think there's a few things to go to
- 57:49Speaker 2: at this. Point, one he's, healthy like for the first
- 57:53Speaker 2: time in like three, years he's, actually you, know fully
- 57:57Speaker 2: going for, it AND i think that's really playing his.
- 58:01Speaker 2: FAVOR i think he just has a substantially better lineup around.
- 58:06Speaker 2: Him he's not expected to be like setting the table
- 58:09Speaker 2: like he was In Saint. Louis he was really treated
- 58:11Speaker 2: as that kind of, uh leadoff, guy number two, guy
- 58:14Speaker 2: like get on base things like. That he wasn't asked
- 58:16Speaker 2: to be hitting. Homers The, dodgers they they're have you
- 58:19Speaker 2: looked where he's batting in the, lineup he's batting number.
- 58:22Speaker 1: THREE i got to bring that. Up that's a pretty
- 58:24Speaker 1: good like indicator. Too that's.
- 58:26Speaker 2: Crazy, yeah he in his last five games he was
- 58:30Speaker 2: third four, times in fifth the other, Time like he
- 58:33Speaker 2: is in The this is the lineup that has o
- 58:36Speaker 2: Tany Mookie bets And Freddie freeman when not, Healthy Will
- 58:40Speaker 2: smith Like taskar and does like he's batting in the
- 58:43Speaker 2: middle of all those guys and everyone's looking at him
- 58:45Speaker 2: like this is the easy out and they're just giving
- 58:48Speaker 2: them things to. Hit like, So I'm i'm really high
- 58:51Speaker 2: On Tommy edvan. HERE i think there's a lot of potential.
- 58:54Speaker 2: Here talk about the lineup and a those other, Things
- 58:56Speaker 2: LIKE i honestly think he just got healthy and now
- 58:59Speaker 2: he's sitting the ball and he's getting things that he
- 59:01Speaker 2: wants to. Hit like that that's what's coming down to for.
- 59:03Speaker 2: Me maybe maybe it's just a hot, streak but, man
- 59:08Speaker 2: it looks Like tommy figures something.
- 59:10Speaker 3: Out, Yeah i'm here for.
- 59:12Speaker 1: It. Yeah it's also it is such a drastic change
- 59:16Speaker 1: in His savant page from year to. Year it's pretty,
- 59:20Speaker 1: blue pretty, blue pretty, blue and twenty twenty five like
- 59:25Speaker 1: red across the, Board like he looks like he's a,
- 59:28Speaker 1: slugger you know. That it's just a, odd odd switch
- 59:33Speaker 1: THAT i think part of it, too is like The
- 59:35Speaker 1: dodgers unlock something here with just the plate approach that
- 59:39Speaker 1: like whatever The cardinals were teaching, him the new kind
- 59:42Speaker 1: of whatever The dodgers have been showing him and in
- 59:46Speaker 1: terms of like what they've wanted him to execute has been.
- 59:49Speaker 1: WORKING i mean one of him AN mvp in THE,
- 59:52Speaker 1: nfces and so like you're looking at just, UH i
- 59:56Speaker 1: think a crazy breakout year For Tommy.
- 59:59Speaker 2: Edmund, YEAH i mean you look at, it go back
- 1:00:02Speaker 2: with that first pitch swing. Percent it's the highest of
- 1:00:04Speaker 2: his career by six. Points and so.
- 1:00:06Speaker 3: He is just he's being. Aggressive he's being.
- 1:00:08Speaker 2: Aggressive let's also own his home run for fly ball
- 1:00:11Speaker 2: rate is like double his career best.
- 1:00:14Speaker 1: ONE i mean barrel rate is.
- 1:00:16Speaker 2: Double, yeah so like you, know he's probably not gonna
- 1:00:19Speaker 2: go all tasker Ernandazon us the whole season and have
- 1:00:22Speaker 2: like a quarter of his fly balls go out the.
- 1:00:24Speaker 2: Ballpark but like even if he just regresses slightly in
- 1:00:27Speaker 2: that with with these barrel rates and being a little more,
- 1:00:29Speaker 2: aggressive like there's a recipe for success.
- 1:00:32Speaker 1: There, YEAH i totally. Agree, okay well let's move on
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: to our next. Player it is twenty five year Old
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: Bill you're a bray you outfielder from The Boston Red.
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: SOX i mostly kind of picked this one BECAUSE i
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: know somebody asked you about him in the comments on
- 1:00:44Speaker 1: your article this past, week BECAUSE i also have the
- 1:00:48Speaker 1: same question that they. Did how is he not a
- 1:00:50Speaker 1: top one hundred hitter? Now considering that his line after
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: forty six played appearances three seventy eight five hundred seven oh,
- 1:00:57Speaker 1: three that's a two THIRTY wrc. Plus but it's come
- 1:01:01Speaker 1: with a really good eye at the plate nineteen point
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: six percent walk, rate fifteen point two percent k, rate
- 1:01:08Speaker 1: good hard hit rate of fifty seven, percent and seventeen
- 1:01:11Speaker 1: point nine percent baril. Rate it does look like, That,
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: well you're a brad you is breaking out here for
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: The Boston Red. Sox so are you still need to
- 1:01:21Speaker 1: see more from him to be able to put him
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: in your top one hundred or is it somebody who's
- 1:01:25Speaker 1: going to be joining up later this? Week?
- 1:01:27Speaker 2: YEAH i mean either, WAY i GOT i got another
- 1:01:30Speaker 2: week and a half four after publishing's rankings, here SO
- 1:01:32Speaker 2: i CAN i can.
- 1:01:34Speaker 3: Put this one for?
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: Sure.
- 1:01:36Speaker 2: Yeah LIKE i there's some players that just don't pass
- 1:01:39Speaker 2: the sniff test for, You AND i hate to say
- 1:01:41Speaker 2: That's Will. Will you're, up bray, You LIKE i look
- 1:01:44Speaker 2: it back at his, profile LIKE i look at what
- 1:01:46Speaker 2: he's doing, now AND i just something just doesn't feel,
- 1:01:49Speaker 2: RIGHT i can't put my finger on. It like maybe
- 1:01:51Speaker 2: it's the four forty babe bip, way it's the fact
- 1:01:53Speaker 2: that this strikeout rate is half of what his career has.
- 1:01:55Speaker 2: BEEN i just can't believe he's become this like really
- 1:01:59Speaker 2: paid hitters that's all of a sudden just gonna blast
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: everything he. Sees, now we just exposed To Tommy, edman
- 1:02:07Speaker 2: who just turned it around and said he's. Amazing, so,
- 1:02:09Speaker 2: LIKE i get speaking out of both sides of the mouth,
- 1:02:11Speaker 2: here but like there's just something about a Bray you
- 1:02:14Speaker 2: that like it's so far off of what he was doing.
- 1:02:18Speaker 2: Previously like he has some good barrels and things like,
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: that but like the it's the it's the, drastic, drastic
- 1:02:26Speaker 2: uh caustic comfort at the plate THAT i Just i'm
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: not quite SURE i can buy. Into and it's not
- 1:02:32Speaker 2: like there's anything that's really jumping out from a true
- 1:02:36Speaker 2: changeing approach that that he's dealing. With and so you,
- 1:02:40Speaker 2: know maybe he's getting you, know a few more fastballs
- 1:02:43Speaker 2: to swing out or something like. That that but that's
- 1:02:47Speaker 2: that's Where i'm struggling with with a Bray. YOU i
- 1:02:50Speaker 2: can't uite put my finger on the drastic shift in
- 1:02:55Speaker 2: his walk and k rates that are truly mean it's
- 1:03:01Speaker 2: more than a hot. Streak like if those weren't what they,
- 1:03:04Speaker 2: ARE i wonder if the rest of these metrics would
- 1:03:06Speaker 2: not look quite the. Same so, again is he just
- 1:03:09Speaker 2: getting pitches that he's you, know people are you, know
- 1:03:13Speaker 2: hanging things to, him things like. THAT I i've got
- 1:03:15Speaker 2: some uneasier but it's hard to ignore for too. Long,
- 1:03:20Speaker 2: yeah it's hard to ignore for too. Long so like
- 1:03:22Speaker 2: he's gonna he's if this keeps, up he's gonna start
- 1:03:24Speaker 2: sneaking to that top one. Hundred BUT i NEED i
- 1:03:27Speaker 2: would like to see it just slightly.
- 1:03:28Speaker 1: Longer, YEAH i mean HE i guess he kind of
- 1:03:31Speaker 1: put up similar ish stats to this in this, Vein
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: like In TRIPLE a in twenty twenty, THREE i pop
- 1:03:39Speaker 1: twenty two homers in eighty six games with a two seventy,
- 1:03:43Speaker 1: four three ninety, one five thirty eight. Line so maybe
- 1:03:46Speaker 1: there is something. There But I'M i Think i'm in
- 1:03:48Speaker 1: the same boat with you. Here i'll bray you, That,
- 1:03:51Speaker 1: LIKE i THINK i need to see it for a
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: couple more weeks BEFORE i fully buy into. It and even,
- 1:03:57Speaker 1: then LIKE i think you're looking at somebody who's maybe
- 1:03:59Speaker 1: like a twenty five, homer ten stolen, base like two
- 1:04:04Speaker 1: sixty ish average sort of, player and at that, point
- 1:04:08Speaker 1: like it's, great but it's not necessarily this kind of
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: top ten batter kind of profile that we've seen.
- 1:04:15Speaker 2: Well and you have to also remember like, this this
- 1:04:17Speaker 2: type of performance there's from a fantasy, perspective there's literally
- 1:04:21Speaker 2: nothing you can do right now because if you own,
- 1:04:24Speaker 2: him you don't you can't trade, him that's. True and
- 1:04:27Speaker 2: if you want, him you can't pay for him of
- 1:04:30Speaker 2: what he's doing right now because you can't quite truly
- 1:04:33Speaker 2: believe it and trust. It so the only questions you're,
- 1:04:37Speaker 2: getting LIKE i feel like the QUESTION i got it
- 1:04:38Speaker 2: was LIKE i own will will?
- 1:04:40Speaker 1: You or ray?
- 1:04:40Speaker 2: YOU i want to be vindicated That i've got the
- 1:04:42Speaker 2: real deal here like, that you're, not LIKE i, said
- 1:04:46Speaker 2: you're not moving him because you might have the real,
- 1:04:47Speaker 2: deal and you're not over paying for him because there's
- 1:04:50Speaker 2: rough question marks there, Too so everybody's holding and waiting
- 1:04:54Speaker 2: to see the truth.
- 1:04:55Speaker 1: Here, yeah AND i MEAN I i think HE i
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: mean he's probably gonna be a top one hard to
- 1:04:59Speaker 1: hitter when it's all said and. Done but it's, like,
- 1:05:02Speaker 1: yeah like you, said how do you find the right
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: trade partner one way or the. Other that it's really.
- 1:05:07Speaker 1: Difficult that just ride it while you've got it and enjoy,
- 1:05:10Speaker 1: IT i, think because the nice thing with a Bray
- 1:05:12Speaker 1: new is he's going to play every day with that. Defense,
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: okay let's get into our next player. Who uh this
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: has been quite the fascinating breakout in The bronx that
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: he is hitting a leadoff for the most part when
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: he's against right handed, pitching but they're starting to weave
- 1:05:30Speaker 1: him in more with left handed. Pitching just played in
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: the two hole Against Tweaks scooble yesterday In. Detroit that
- 1:05:38Speaker 1: Is Ben RICE dh of The New York, yankees but
- 1:05:42Speaker 1: should qualify everywhere at first base because of his work
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, four opening the season with a three
- 1:05:48Speaker 1: h six four nineteen six sixty seven Slug that is
- 1:05:52Speaker 1: a two to oh SIX wrc plus three homers eleven
- 1:05:58Speaker 1: strikeouts to seven walks in his forty three plate, appearances
- 1:06:03Speaker 1: also coming off of a pretty nice spring when he
- 1:06:05Speaker 1: hit five bombs and batted to forty. Two. Uh this
- 1:06:09Speaker 1: is somebody Who i've already kind of started believing. IN
- 1:06:12Speaker 1: i was into him last, year AND i just kind
- 1:06:14Speaker 1: of wasn't totally sure that The yankees would give him
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: the full. Shot but now that he's hitting in the
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: top third of the order for The New York, Yankees
- 1:06:23Speaker 1: i'm fully in On Ben rice wherever you can pick him.
- 1:06:25Speaker 2: Up what about, You, Yeah i'm kind of right there with,
- 1:06:28Speaker 2: you the same thing like coming up last. Year so
- 1:06:31Speaker 2: let's go back in comparison with with brew. Here, like
- 1:06:34Speaker 2: if you look at What rice is, doing he's really
- 1:06:36Speaker 2: doing a continuation of what he's done in the miners
- 1:06:39Speaker 2: in the, majors and he had kind of a learning
- 1:06:41Speaker 2: period last. Year we didn't have consistent playing, time and
- 1:06:44Speaker 2: you can kind of see some bad luck dropped him,
- 1:06:47Speaker 2: down but his underlying metrics were still relatively, consistent just you,
- 1:06:50Speaker 2: know a little ticked down facing major league. Pitching and
- 1:06:54Speaker 2: this year they kind of jumped back to where they
- 1:06:55Speaker 2: were in the. Miners he seems like he's more comfortable
- 1:06:58Speaker 2: and he's getting consistent play playing time because Gen Carlo
- 1:07:01Speaker 2: stateton went. Down So i'm actually much more interested In Ben.
- 1:07:05Speaker 2: Rice i'm really ANNOYED i did not grab him anywhere
- 1:07:08Speaker 2: as a result of, that because to your, POINT i
- 1:07:11Speaker 2: just didn't believe The yankees would give him playing. TIME
- 1:07:13Speaker 2: i think The stanton injury has really doubled down on.
- 1:07:15Speaker 2: That so if he's still out, there because HE i
- 1:07:18Speaker 2: don't think he's a fully known commodity, yet if he's
- 1:07:21Speaker 2: still out there in the, LEAGUE i think he has
- 1:07:23Speaker 2: to be absolutely has to be picked. UP i don't
- 1:07:26Speaker 2: know if he's quite a top one hundred talent yet
- 1:07:28Speaker 2: because Again i'm still a little iffy on what the
- 1:07:30Speaker 2: true playing time is going to be long term rest of. Season,
- 1:07:34Speaker 2: ALSO i should just look At stanton And judge and
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: all the other outfielders for The. Yankees realized there's no health,
- 1:07:40Speaker 2: there so maybe you know that's not a. Concern but,
- 1:07:45Speaker 2: YEAH i Think Ben rice is really exciting AND i
- 1:07:48Speaker 2: think he's a great pickup if you have an.
- 1:07:51Speaker 1: Opportunity, YEAH i think so. Too AND i MEAN i
- 1:07:53Speaker 1: think EVERYTHING i heard from you is, that like that
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: sounds like a top one hundred. HITTER i, MEAN i
- 1:07:58Speaker 1: can see an easy swaffle right in terms of maybe
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: Removing Rehys hoskins and Putting Ben rice in as like
- 1:08:04Speaker 1: your last first. Baseman BUT i think that's right where he.
- 1:08:07Speaker 1: Is that like ten and twelve. Teamers ten, teamers it's
- 1:08:10Speaker 1: more of like ride the hot streak With Ben rice
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: and if it fades a little, bit then jump. Off
- 1:08:15Speaker 1: but twelve, Teamers Ben rice has to be, owned so,
- 1:08:18Speaker 1: certainly like you, said he's probably still hanging around in some,
- 1:08:21Speaker 1: leagues make sure you go out and pick Up Ben
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: rice now while you. Can all, right next player who
- 1:08:28Speaker 1: he was just hoovered up everywhere off of the waiver
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: wires because of his hot. Start and given that now
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: we know That sacramento might just end up being Coors
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: Field Ale west. Edition Tyler, sottoestrom first baseman from The,
- 1:08:44Speaker 1: athletics opening the season with six bombs in his first
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: twelve games over fifty played, appearances slashing three seventy eight
- 1:08:52Speaker 1: four forty eight twenty. Two that's a two SIXTY wrc.
- 1:08:56Speaker 1: PLUS i GUESS i was not looking at the live,
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: stats so he did go over four day it's down
- 1:09:01Speaker 1: to two forty TWO wrc. Plus great strikeout rate at
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: eighteen and a half, percent great walk right at eleven
- 1:09:07Speaker 1: point one. Percent Tyler, SADISTROM i think might be like
- 1:09:13Speaker 1: a top six first. Baseman what do you?
- 1:09:16Speaker 2: Think, YEAH i he just cracked my top one hundred
- 1:09:19Speaker 2: BECAUSE i just wasn't sure how far up to move him. Up,
- 1:09:22Speaker 2: Yeah and like it's what we talked about with You
- 1:09:25Speaker 2: Heneo suarez, earlier is you, know always hit the ball
- 1:09:29Speaker 2: hard and is getting a better and better approach to the.
- 1:09:34Speaker 2: Plate and it's it's it's. Incremental you can kind of see.
- 1:09:37Speaker 2: It he's striking out less and less and. Less and
- 1:09:41Speaker 2: if you look at his actual kind of pitch, selection
- 1:09:45Speaker 2: you can see where where where.
- 1:09:48Speaker 3: That's kind of.
- 1:09:48Speaker 2: Coming and he's just he truly is swinging. Less and
- 1:09:54Speaker 2: then when he he is, swinging he's making better. Contact
- 1:09:58Speaker 2: so his zone CONTACT u over the last years a
- 1:10:01Speaker 2: gone from seventy eight percent to eighty one, percent eighty four.
- 1:10:03Speaker 2: Percent his chase rate was at twenty nine percent now
- 1:10:06Speaker 2: it's down to twenty four and a half. Percent you
- 1:10:09Speaker 2: can tell that his swing is swing. Percent he's down
- 1:10:12Speaker 2: almost six points in his. Swing like he's just picking
- 1:10:17Speaker 2: the pitches. Better he's picking better pitches to frankly just
- 1:10:21Speaker 2: crush and with the power he, has if that's what,
- 1:10:24Speaker 2: happens the ball is gonna. Fly and so again same analysis,
- 1:10:28Speaker 2: here when you don't strike out and you hit the
- 1:10:30Speaker 2: ball better and you pick better, pitches good things, happen
- 1:10:32Speaker 2: and so how long that truly Lasts it'll be a.
- 1:10:36Speaker 2: QUESTION i was really hopeful That soderstream would pick up
- 1:10:39Speaker 2: some catcher eligibility this, year and it doesn't seem like
- 1:10:42Speaker 2: that's actually.
- 1:10:42Speaker 3: Gonna be the.
- 1:10:43Speaker 2: Case BUT i don't think he needs it with this
- 1:10:46Speaker 2: this kind of profile going. On he's a legitimate first
- 1:10:49Speaker 2: base power option at this.
- 1:10:50Speaker 1: Point, YEAH i just maybe a little bit aggressive on
- 1:10:54Speaker 1: top six because If i'm looking at your, RANKINGS i
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: put him in Like Josh naylor range where WHICH i
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: mean STILL i think when it's all, settled, ESPECIALLY i
- 1:11:04Speaker 1: mean it's very possible That siderstrom's gonna be right. There
- 1:11:07Speaker 1: but like eighth is Pass, QUENTINO i Think i've Got
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: solderstrom maybe right Above passmentino given the park at this
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: point that this reminds me a lot Of Matt, olsen
- 1:11:20Speaker 1: going from his twenty eighteen to twenty nineteen, season when
- 1:11:25Speaker 1: the batting average went up from two forty seven to
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: two sixty, seven went from twenty nine bombs to thirty six.
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: Bombs but like played twenty five fewer, games thirty five fewer.
- 1:11:35Speaker 1: Games it looks a lot like that in the same
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: organization where LIKE i Think solderstrom is doing The Matt
- 1:11:41Speaker 1: olsen breakout where hits the crap out of the, ball
- 1:11:45Speaker 1: cut a few of the. Strikeouts now you're mixing in
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: A TRIPLE a. BALLPARK i think it's gonna be a
- 1:11:51Speaker 1: crazy season For Tyler.
- 1:11:52Speaker 2: Soderstrom it does feel like it's kind of the athletics profile,
- 1:11:55Speaker 2: thing like you call It Olsen.
- 1:11:58Speaker 3: Rooker like.
- 1:12:00Speaker 2: There's been other guys they've tried to try, with LIKE A.
- 1:12:04Speaker 2: SMITH i can't remember his first, name but LIKE i
- 1:12:08Speaker 2: think there's been a number of guys and they've just,
- 1:12:10Speaker 2: Like i'm just gonna get this power bat and then
- 1:12:11Speaker 2: we're gonna try to teach them the right approach the.
- 1:12:13Speaker 2: Play and it feels like this this is kind of
- 1:12:15Speaker 2: their their game at this. Point and another guy that
- 1:12:18Speaker 2: seems to be working For, yeah.
- 1:12:20Speaker 1: Exactly so. CERTAINLY i, MEAN i think if you want
- 1:12:24Speaker 1: to buy high On tyler sizes stream you certainly. Can
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: so it's a great.
- 1:12:28Speaker 2: Asset, Sorry Seth, Smith that's WHAT i was.
- 1:12:30Speaker 1: Thinking, Ah, yes that's WHO i was. WONDERING i was,
- 1:12:32Speaker 1: like you could not have picked a more generic, name my,
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: man Just.
- 1:12:37Speaker 2: Smith that's deep analysis for.
- 1:12:39Speaker 1: You, okay next player we have Is Bryce turing from
- 1:12:42Speaker 1: The Milwaukee brewers second, baseman who is batting three twenty,
- 1:12:47Speaker 1: six three forty, seven five forty three for a one
- 1:12:52Speaker 1: forty FIVE wrc plus with three homers over his first
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: forty nine play, appearances coming off the heels of a
- 1:12:59Speaker 1: fifty based. Season let me look at those power numbers,
- 1:13:03Speaker 1: again BECAUSE i think it's all like backed up by
- 1:13:06Speaker 1: his barrel rate and stuff. Too you have fifteen percent barrel,
- 1:13:08Speaker 1: rate fifty one percent hard hit. Rate this is something
- 1:13:11Speaker 1: where there were talks of it in spring training AND
- 1:13:14Speaker 1: i saw news of like people talking about Like Bryce
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: terrang hitting the ball harder and working on making harder.
- 1:13:21Speaker 1: Contact AND i just kind of tossed to the side
- 1:13:24Speaker 1: because this was Little Bryce, terrang like Gold glover fifty solen.
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: BASES i thought barely hanging on considering the second half
- 1:13:33Speaker 1: he had last year was absolutely. Dreadful Is Bryce terrang
- 1:13:38Speaker 1: a power? Option? Now?
- 1:13:41Speaker 2: THIS i have zero idea.
- 1:13:44Speaker 1: Counding to me.
- 1:13:45Speaker 2: TOO i look at this and, like and it's so.
- 1:13:48Speaker 2: Fun it is kind of like to read kind of
- 1:13:52Speaker 2: with what you get with a bray you or something like,
- 1:13:54Speaker 2: that were like it's just so far out of profile
- 1:13:58Speaker 2: that it's, like how COULD i actually believe? It is
- 1:14:02Speaker 2: kind of AND i mean this is like even worse
- 1:14:04Speaker 2: than far far worse than a Pre it was, like
- 1:14:06Speaker 2: we're talking about a guy who is to your, point
- 1:14:08Speaker 2: LIKE i was, questioning like if he should be in
- 1:14:09Speaker 2: the major, Leagues, uh to a guy that all of
- 1:14:11Speaker 2: a sudden is Hitting let's Let's i'm trying to look
- 1:14:14Speaker 2: at the. Comps, no they're not fair yet because he's
- 1:14:16Speaker 2: still being compared to Like Xavier edwards And jake. McCarthy,
- 1:14:19Speaker 2: yeah and that's not who he's hitting right right, now
- 1:14:21Speaker 2: so like, it, like but he is absolutely torching the
- 1:14:25Speaker 2: ball AND i.
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: Spray, shirt like four hundred and thirty, feet.
- 1:14:34Speaker 2: How is it?
- 1:14:34Speaker 3: Not how is it not just a hot?
- 1:14:36Speaker 2: Streak but at the same, time like all the numbers
- 1:14:38Speaker 2: behind it seemed to back it, up like he is
- 1:14:40Speaker 2: absolutely mashing the. Ball So i'm just on the sidelines
- 1:14:45Speaker 2: watching this. ONE i DON'T i don't know IF i
- 1:14:47Speaker 2: care If i'm right or wrong On Bryce terrang if
- 1:14:49Speaker 2: he's out there grabbing them if, NOT a well kind
- 1:14:52Speaker 2: of a similar situation, too like you can't can't trade
- 1:14:55Speaker 2: him can't trade for him because of what he's doing.
- 1:14:58Speaker 2: Here maybe he's figured something, out but, MAN i JUST
- 1:15:01Speaker 2: i struggled with it with that five eleven one ninety.
- 1:15:03Speaker 2: Frame LIKE i it's hard to believe that he can
- 1:15:06Speaker 2: really put that much behind. Him but he was a first.
- 1:15:09Speaker 2: Rounder he did have uh some pedigree that just just
- 1:15:13Speaker 2: the power was never truly there anywhere within the. Minors
- 1:15:18Speaker 2: he was always a speed. Guy but maybe this is
- 1:15:23Speaker 2: the one time WHERE i see struck out where going
- 1:15:25Speaker 2: up That i'm actually slightly okay with. It, Yeah and
- 1:15:28Speaker 2: so maybe there is something here that he's swinging for
- 1:15:30Speaker 2: the fences and he's you, know maybe it'll hurt his
- 1:15:33Speaker 2: average and ability to. STEAL i don't, know but, hey
- 1:15:37Speaker 2: this is this will be a fun one to, watch
- 1:15:39Speaker 2: that's for.
- 1:15:39Speaker 1: Sure, YEAH i MEAN i think this is exactly kind
- 1:15:42Speaker 1: of the type of PLAYER i was talking about where
- 1:15:44Speaker 1: you've got to move pretty, early, because LIKE i, mean
- 1:15:47Speaker 1: although some of the projections have already kind of picked
- 1:15:50Speaker 1: up the power, uptick you, know he's got projections in
- 1:15:53Speaker 1: the double digits and a lot of spots right now
- 1:15:56Speaker 1: that are accounting for this and also have increased his
- 1:15:59Speaker 1: case rate because he's also posted his best MAX ev
- 1:16:04Speaker 1: after you, know seven hundred and seventy. Seven that's a
- 1:16:10Speaker 1: seven seven to seven career bad ball events before he
- 1:16:13Speaker 1: entered the. Season posted his best MAX ev this season
- 1:16:17Speaker 1: at ONE o nine point, eight which IS i, mean
- 1:16:19Speaker 1: it's not, fantastic but that's a guy who is going
- 1:16:23Speaker 1: in my mind from something like eight homers to fifteen.
- 1:16:26Speaker 1: Homers and when you're talking that type of movement and
- 1:16:30Speaker 1: a guy who can steal forty plus, BAGS i, MEAN
- 1:16:34Speaker 1: i think you've got to move. Fast and if you
- 1:16:37Speaker 1: can find somebody who has bryce rain and still is
- 1:16:40Speaker 1: a little bit on the fence on like what his
- 1:16:42Speaker 1: value could, BE i, MEAN i think they're looking at
- 1:16:44Speaker 1: somebody who can really take off and get into almost
- 1:16:48Speaker 1: like A. Cj abrams like kind of tier if he
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: can put the power together that like especially that ballpark
- 1:16:55Speaker 1: for a left handed. BAT i do Think i'm gonna
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: believe in this For, terrain, because like you've got to
- 1:17:00Speaker 1: based on the evidence in front of.
- 1:17:02Speaker 2: You, yeah you're, right WHETHER i, LIKE i don't believe,
- 1:17:06Speaker 2: it to be, honest BUT i don't think it. Matters
- 1:17:07Speaker 2: like you have you have to at this point in the.
- 1:17:10Speaker 2: Season you have to believe it because you got to
- 1:17:12Speaker 2: take that leap and run with. It and if you
- 1:17:15Speaker 2: end up reading wrong in a, month it's. Fine you
- 1:17:16Speaker 2: just you gotta got some speed and you're fine with, it,
- 1:17:18Speaker 2: Right that's. True and so, YEAH i if he's somehow
- 1:17:22Speaker 2: still hanging out, there gotta grab.
- 1:17:24Speaker 1: Him. Yeah AND i MEAN i talked about the change
- 1:17:28Speaker 1: In Tommy edmund's color ration on His somebant page being.
- 1:17:31Speaker 1: Dramatic bryce To rings is. Otherworldly it's not even if
- 1:17:35Speaker 1: you showed it to, somebody there's no way they would
- 1:17:37Speaker 1: believe it's the same player you Over.
- 1:17:38Speaker 2: Year's two different. Guys it's two different.
- 1:17:40Speaker 3: Guys.
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: Yeah how many peed tests Has Bryce scrying taken in
- 1:17:43Speaker 1: the first two weeks? Seven, yeah just like every it's,
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: like get it here. Price, okay let's move on to
- 1:17:51Speaker 1: our last.
- 1:17:51Speaker 3: Player.
- 1:17:52Speaker 1: WHO i, mean this is a sour. Note we're gonna end,
- 1:17:54Speaker 1: on BUT i think it's time to move on From
- 1:17:58Speaker 1: Luis Robert. Jr how much did you drop him in
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: your rankings this? Week let me see or is it still? Coming?
- 1:18:06Speaker 2: YEAH i. Don't they have fully dropped seventeen.
- 1:18:09Speaker 1: Spots, yeah you went from sixty fifth to eighty first
- 1:18:13Speaker 1: For Luise Robert, junior which looks pretty. Warranted he's striking
- 1:18:16Speaker 1: out at a thirty percent clip right, now hitting one
- 1:18:19Speaker 1: seventy six two seventy five two to oh six slash.
- 1:18:23Speaker 1: Line that's a forty SIX wrc. Plus that's AN o
- 1:18:26Speaker 1: twenty NINE. Iso looks completely lost at the. Plate the
- 1:18:30Speaker 1: stole and bases are. There what was? There also maybe
- 1:18:34Speaker 1: a Freaky friday switch Between Bryce terrang And Luis Robert.
- 1:18:37Speaker 2: Jr that's all the best sexualations what we're talking about right.
- 1:18:41Speaker 2: NOW i mean With robert that you, know you know
- 1:18:46Speaker 2: that twenty four was a tough, year like his numbers
- 1:18:51Speaker 2: end up being, okay but he just didn't look fully
- 1:18:53Speaker 2: comfortable to, plate and it feels like that's just continuing
- 1:18:55Speaker 2: on and he's never been the most healthy, player and so,
- 1:19:00Speaker 2: LIKE i think you got to bake that into a
- 1:19:01Speaker 2: degree as well as that he seems a little. Lost
- 1:19:04Speaker 2: he's probably gonna get, hurt and he's been trending down
- 1:19:07Speaker 2: like all those things you're just pointing the wrong.
- 1:19:08Speaker 3: Way and then you put.
- 1:19:10Speaker 2: Him on The White sox with there's no run production,
- 1:19:12Speaker 2: Opportunities like he can't even like hide behind that and
- 1:19:14Speaker 2: be Like, okay, YEAH i sold three, bases BUT i
- 1:19:16Speaker 2: got nine runs and EIGHT rbi and just the power's
- 1:19:19Speaker 2: missing a little bit and hopefully he figures things out.
- 1:19:22Speaker 2: Right that's not gonna happen there, Either like he's walking
- 1:19:26Speaker 2: more than you ever. Have so let's give. That it
- 1:19:27Speaker 2: doesn't matter if The White, sox if you're on, base
- 1:19:29Speaker 2: doesn't do. Anything So I'm i'm moving on from From robert.
- 1:19:35Speaker 2: Here if there's a if there's somebody that's looking to take,
- 1:19:38Speaker 2: him more power to, you let them.
- 1:19:41Speaker 1: Ride, YEAH i totally. Agree and this is kind of,
- 1:19:44Speaker 1: like this is a pretty good situation WHERE i think
- 1:19:47Speaker 1: if you looked at the, projections you'd get it wrong
- 1:19:49Speaker 1: BECAUSE i don't think there's any way he hits any
- 1:19:52Speaker 1: of the projections that he. Has, PARTLY i, mean they're
- 1:19:54Speaker 1: all somehow calling for him to play like another one
- 1:19:57Speaker 1: hundred and forty five, games which that's not. HAPPENING i
- 1:20:01Speaker 1: can tell you that.
- 1:20:02Speaker 3: There will be a career.
- 1:20:03Speaker 1: Best, yeah there will be a hammy injury or something
- 1:20:07Speaker 1: soft tissue From robert at some. Point all calling for
- 1:20:10Speaker 1: him to hit mid Twenties homer's mid twenty stolen bases
- 1:20:13Speaker 1: and bat two FIFTY i JUST i just don't see.
- 1:20:17Speaker 1: It he looks totally, lost and it's just a continuation
- 1:20:20Speaker 1: of last year when he only hit two twenty four
- 1:20:24Speaker 1: and even last year THE iso was only one fifty.
- 1:20:26Speaker 1: FIVE i think he's just also shot any trade value
- 1:20:30Speaker 1: down THAT i don't see another team kind of wanting
- 1:20:33Speaker 1: to buy in because it just doesn't look very, fixable
- 1:20:37Speaker 1: and when you do fix, it it feels like it's
- 1:20:39Speaker 1: gonna just kind of all fall apart and. Break it's
- 1:20:41Speaker 1: a it's Very yasiel pueag to me, that like the
- 1:20:44Speaker 1: tools are there For, robert BUT i just don't know
- 1:20:46Speaker 1: if it can all come. TOGETHER i wasna, say, MS
- 1:20:50Speaker 1: i mean that's the same vein of player.
- 1:20:56Speaker 2: Trade from later this.
- 1:20:56Speaker 1: Year, yeah and then he's, gonna, yeah end up in
- 1:20:59Speaker 1: the minor. Leagues names could, happen all, Right, well, yeah
- 1:21:05Speaker 1: let's wrap it up. Here we've got a lot of
- 1:21:07Speaker 1: great players there that we, discussed and if you've got
- 1:21:11Speaker 1: any other, ones then maybe you're looking to get some
- 1:21:13Speaker 1: evaluations on pretty. Quick hit us up in the comments
- 1:21:16Speaker 1: on Ras ball for this, post or you can reach
- 1:21:19Speaker 1: out to the podcast at Cards categories at gmail dot,
- 1:21:22Speaker 1: com or contact us On Blue sky at cards. Categories
- 1:21:26Speaker 1: i'm On Blue sky at mcool. Seven the cool is
- 1:21:30Speaker 1: spelled like my last name C O U I L.
- 1:21:33Speaker 1: L and LIKE i said, earlier i am Writing saturdays
- 1:21:37Speaker 1: at rasball doing those waiver wirecolmns telling you who to
- 1:21:40Speaker 1: pick up for all those injuries that you might have
- 1:21:41Speaker 1: sustained this, week or who you might want to pick
- 1:21:45Speaker 1: up when you Drop Louise Robert. Junior so certainly check
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