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Hillsboro, we have a problem · Crosstabs

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we should start with a win.
• 0:07
  I already know what the title of this episode is going to be
• 0:10
  too,
• 0:10
  you know?
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think it should be Hillsborough, we have a problem.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: Like Houston, we have a problem.
• 0:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_01: Because we'll talk about that in a little bit.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: But yes, we should start with the highlight, the good parts.
• 0:24
  So I was going to pull up the tweet that we linked to in the
• 0:27
  last episode from
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_01: Horvick because...
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: I think the results were basically the same as 26 years ago.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, really?
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Just a second.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 0:39
  SPEAKER_00: 80-17?
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_00: So, the result was... Yeah, I was... What did I say?
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_00: 75-25?
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: And I'd estimated they'd get up way higher.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: I was so wrong.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_01: So, last time it was 87-13?
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_01: This time 83 to almost 17.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: So like almost exactly the same.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: So Oregonians don't like taxes, but they love Democrats.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: I kid you.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_01: I kid you not.
• 1:14
  SPEAKER_01: I don't get it Dude,
• 1:17
  Oregon is so strange Oregon is We love Democrats We hate taxes
• 1:23
  We love guns It's a
• 1:25
  very strange thing And I am not smart enough to explain it We
• 1:31
  love socialist
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats That's what's so weird about it Yeah,
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_00: it's just...
• 1:37
  I you know it's odd well one I hate primaries well let's just
• 1:40
  start there because I
• 1:41
  hate primaries and then I just think that they're not they're
• 1:46
  just not fun they're
• 1:47
  not they're not fun to run against your friends and your
• 1:51
  brothers like in arms you
• 1:53
  know and then you get from the Democrat side as well as
• 1:56
  Republican side I just
• 1:57
  don't think it's much fun you know even talking to some
• 1:59
  Democrats like they hate
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: them too it's just uh
• 2:02
  it's just not a lot of fun and so I like watching that stuff in
• 2:06
  Texas with like
• 2:07
  Trump endorsing Paxton over Cornyn and it's like yeah those
• 2:12
  just those things are
• 2:13
  just you're like why would you get involved and then
• 2:16
  everybody's like why are you
• 2:17
  giving money to so-and-so why do you like this person like you
• 2:21
  know what I mean
• 2:21
  like it's just a tough it's a tough game uh to get into so I I
• 2:26
  like beating
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: Democrats
• 2:28
  I don't want to be inconsistent here because of course I've run
• 2:31
  my fair share of
• 2:32
  primaries and you have too and it's some of the most fun mail
• 2:36
  to do in a lot of
• 2:37
  SPEAKER_01: ways but it's not fun to be against your friends especially your fellow
• 2:43
  Hello consultants and staffers and usually you don't end up
• 2:46
  running against
• 2:47
  candidates you actually like for the most part in the primaries
• 2:50
  but everything else
• 2:51
  is it's the same donors it's the same consultants it's the same
• 2:55
  staff and people
• 2:57
  end up on different sides of things so yes but you know a good
• 3:02
  primary is a good
• 3:02
  primary and it can be fun but a lot of times there's parts of
• 3:05
  it that are not fun
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_01: so yeah
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, hey, I like to get paid.
• 3:11
  So,
• 3:11
  I mean,
• 3:12
  that's usually the biggest thing with primaries is making sure
• 3:16
  you get your check.
• 3:18
  Even general elections,
• 3:19
  man,
• 3:20
  especially if they're not a guaranteed winner.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, absolutely.
• 3:24
  That's usually the biggest thing we worry about is making sure
• 3:27
  that we got
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: everything paid before the election results are announced.
• 3:31
  I think it's pretty important to,
• 3:34
  I think,
• 3:35
  pay your bills if you're a candidate,
• 3:37
  obviously.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_01: Try not to run into the red or do it in a strategic way.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: Hi, bud.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_01: What's wrong?
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: Do you need a snack?
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: You want to finish your muffins?
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: I do need a snack.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm hungry, Reagan.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, you're talking to your kids.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_01: I need to eat something too, but he wanted his muffins.
• 3:53
  SPEAKER_00: I got on the Peloton this morning, so you get me with this.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, yeah.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: You're going to be hungry.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_00: Well, let's start.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: Enough BS.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, huge win, obviously, on the tax issue.
• 4:06
  That is what people thought was going to happen in the sense
• 4:08
  that it was going to
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: get demolished.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_01: Very interesting to see it be very similar to last time.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: There was no yes campaign.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_01: There was also no no campaign, though, either.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_01: So I feel like...
• 4:20
  This is the one place where you can identify that the unions
• 4:25
  got handed a loss
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: because this was a union led thing.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_01: This was the unions going to the governor and to the legislature saying,
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_01: you better not lay anybody off.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: And then they didn't lay anybody off.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_01: They found an alternate strategy when this got referred to the ballot.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: And then they moved it to May.
• 4:45
  SPEAKER_01: And
• 4:47
  SPEAKER_01: The thing is, though, is it's like I can't identify anything locally.
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_01: And this was the question was, was this going to impact a race somewhere?
• 4:55
  And as far as I could tell,
• 4:56
  it didn't have an impact on local races either.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_01: It was a thing unto itself.
• 5:02
  And so the Democrats argument that it would damage them in
• 5:05
  November probably
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_01: doesn't hold any water at this point,
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_01: as far as I can tell.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm with you.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: I can't see any indication in which,
• 5:16
  because a lot of our local races tried to attach themselves to
• 5:20
  the no on the gas
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: tax stuff,
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: but people would clearly,
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: the Democrats,
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: because you had to have Democrats vote no on it,
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: lots of them showed up,
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: voted no,
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: and then literally voted for communists.
• 5:33
  Yeah like if you don't agree with me by the way if you don't
• 5:36
  agree with us by the
• 5:37
  way send us a comment or your thoughts or where you see a
• 5:40
  correlation between this
• 5:42
  result and a local result because I mean I haven't seen all the
• 5:44
  races necessarily I
• 5:45
  could be wrong I'd be interested in other people's analysis on
• 5:48
  that but that's my
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_01: my take is that it didn't have an impact yep I agree
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: All right, federal elections.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: The main,
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_01: I think the most interesting result,
• 6:00
  the best result for Republicans in a lot of ways is David Brock
• 6:05
  Smith currently
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_01: leading with 29% of the vote,
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: the U.S.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_01: Senate Republican primary.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_01: In second place, Joe Ray Perkins with 27.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_01: In third place, Brent Barker with 23.
• 6:19
  The only way I explain Brent Barker's 23% is he was just first
• 6:22
  on all the ballots.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: That could be.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: I thought that Russell McAlmond guy would do a little bit better.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: But clearly, Joe Ray versus David Brocksmith was where it's at.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: There's still some ballots to be counted.
• 6:41
  You know 8,000 votes different difference between the two
• 6:46
  what's wild is that there
• 6:48
  was only 317,000 people actually voted in that one so compared
• 6:55
  to the governor's
• 6:56
  race which was a lot more so it had three the governor's race
• 7:00
  at 366,000 so about
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: 50,000 more votes yeah people in that primary just said yeah
• 7:08
  which is interesting because it's usually the first one you get
• 7:12
  to,
• 7:12
  right?
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: And there's a whole laundry list.
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe there just wasn't a lot of advertising.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: David didn't do a whole bunch.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: Neither did Joe Ray and stuff.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: So mostly just online fighting.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_01: Also, I always forget how few votes there are in these races.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's just not the raw numbers are not big.
• 7:31
  SPEAKER_00: No, it is wild.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's another reason why I hate them.
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, no, hopefully we'll see how that holds.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, if the trends stay, he should be fine.
• 7:42
  SPEAKER_00: 8,000 votes is a tough margin to overcome.
• 7:45
  If there's a bunch of counties in which he didn't do well that
• 7:49
  still have more to process.
• 7:51
  But I didn't really see a lot of blips around where Joe Ray was
• 7:55
  killing it and
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: David was not or what have you.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I would imagine those trends probably stay the same.
• 8:01
  And unlike Democratic primaries,
• 8:03
  our primaries seem to kind of like report and then hold.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: Like there isn't a big swap in the end,
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: as we're going to see here with some of these Democratic primaries.
• 8:13
  There's not a clear like both both groups of Republican voters
• 8:19
  for different
• 8:20
  different candidates all behave the same way in terms of when
• 8:23
  they return their
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_01: ballots.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: And nobody,
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_01: as far as I know,
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: had an aggressive grassroots operation that would have changed things.
• 8:31
  um that's obviously different on the Democratic side but
• 8:33
  congrats to Senator David
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Brock Smith for being the U.S.
• 8:37
  Senate nominee for the Republicans I think this is a good thing
• 8:40
  having a competent
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: normal Republican at the top of the ticket is important um
• 8:46
  this is one of those uh chew gum and walk at the same time
• 8:49
  things that we just like
• 8:51
  have to get right it's one of the things that we haven't always
• 8:54
  gotten right we've
• 8:55
  nominated Monica Webby who was a disaster Mark Callahan was a
• 8:59
  disaster Joe Ray
• 9:00
  Perkins who you know was kind of not sometimes a problem
• 9:06
  sometimes just kind of not
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_01: you don't hear from her but either way huge
• 9:12
  I think this is important Statewide I can tell there's about
• 9:14
  100,000 ballots left
• 9:16
  to count based on what has been scanned and what has been
• 9:23
  tallied Statewide
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we'll see.
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, 100,000 is still a decent number.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: But of course,
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_00: if you're only looking at like a third of those,
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: if a third of those are Republican.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: So now you're only talking 30,000 ballots.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 9:38
  If a third or less or less than a third are going to be
• 9:41
  Republican or maybe
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_00: somewhere around there.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: So that means 30,000 ballots, give or take.
• 9:47
  And then she would have to win the lion's share of those
• 9:52
  remaining ballots.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: to make up an 8,000 vote different, right?
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: So there's just really, it's about impossible, so.
• 10:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 10:03
  And then,
• 10:04
  yeah,
• 10:04
  Fifth District,
• 10:05
  real quick,
• 10:06
  Adair beats Jonathan Lockwood.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: He did a little better than I was expecting him to do,
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_01: so I think that has a lot to do with,
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_01: I'm guessing that Adair did not send a lot.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_01: I got one mailer from her, I got nothing from
• 10:20
  uh Lockwood but that's a good result Lockwood be a very bad
• 10:24
  nominee all right
• 10:25
  governor and then uh uh yeah I mean there's really not much to
• 10:30
  say in those federal
• 10:31
  races sorry I mean I know you're no it no it's they're very
• 10:34
  boring results
• 10:35
  otherwise yes absolutely nobody's really fighting anybody
• 10:39
  nobody really cares and
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: uh uh we're moving on yep all right governor primary uh the
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_01: Here's the thing, and I tweeted this on election night, maybe.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_01: Believe the polls, not social media.
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_01: On social media, you would have thought Ed Deal is crushing it.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: David Medina is crushing it.
• 11:03
  I mean,
• 11:03
  Deal did,
• 11:03
  I think,
• 11:04
  he did okay for his cost per vote is going to be very low.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: But at the end of the day, the polling was right.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and this is probably my one prediction I got correct.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 11:17
  Yeah I think what I found like Christine so we were about spot
• 11:23
  on with Dudley,
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Bethel and Medina
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_00: And Ed Deal, really.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, what did I have?
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: I think I said 28-29.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_00: So Ed Deal got 32.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: Christine crushed it.
• 11:35
  She did way better than I thought she was going to slide into
• 11:38
  the low 30s,
• 11:40
  high 20s.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: And some of the other percentages were going to also equal to about 15%.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: But dude, like those other people in the race, like they got nothing.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think it was just like collectively like 2%.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_01: I think we were estimating those guys higher,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_01: but at the end of the day,
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_01: people,
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: they consolidate towards the candidates with a chance.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: And they consolidated Christine,
• 12:06
  and that's what she's got to be pretty happy with those results
• 12:10
  to pick up 42%,
• 12:11
  which is pretty funny because that's about what Trey thought he
• 12:15
  was going to end up
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: with.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Based on their polling and stuff.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: So congrats to them.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: And she ran a great race.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: She...
• 12:24
  really did top I mean from November she just put the you know
• 12:28
  pedal to the metal
• 12:29
  and they just went and you know she wanted the rematch and
• 12:33
  she's got it so we'll
• 12:36
  see what happens but she wanted the rematch really bad with
• 12:39
  Tina and so it's gonna
• 12:41
  be battle royale then my only I think you and I were texting
• 12:46
  her I can't remember
• 12:47
  we were like the only thing we were upset about is we were just
• 12:49
  gonna have to hear
• 12:51
  how much they hate each other over the course of the next six
• 12:53
  months those two and
• 12:56
  uh we'll see with the you know 44 percent the 44 percent was
• 13:01
  the polling if you
• 13:03
  believe that from Dudley remember that he released the poll
• 13:06
  right for Tina and
• 13:08
  Christine were at so you have to 44 44 yeah gonna be the
• 13:13
  unpopularity of Tina
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Kotech versus Trump
• 13:16
  Right Or sorry Christine Drazen But they'll call her Trump They
• 13:21
  will 100% She's got
• 13:22
  red hair too Reagan I don't know It's gonna get rough They'll
• 13:25
  run on the abortion
• 13:26
  issue as well And they will They'll probably try to attack her
• 13:30
  On voting rights and
• 13:31
  some things But I think The question will be is Depending on
• 13:37
  how If the governor
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: can improve her popularity Between now and then
• 13:43
  I don't know that she can I don't know what there is to do on
• 13:45
  that front right now
• 13:47
  so that's the biggest question it's a long summer it is a long
• 13:52
  summer it's very
• 13:53
  true we'll see we'll kind of see what happens but I think that
• 13:58
  you know hey
• 13:58
  Christine's got a you know she's got a path I'm sure in her in
• 14:04
  mind and then
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: Now she's got to consolidate the base over the summer and then,
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: just figure out how to get above 44% at the end of the day.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 14:15
  You know,
• 14:15
  that's going to be the real test is,
• 14:18
  you know,
• 14:18
  how do you make...
• 14:21
  Unless you've got some third party candidate plans I don't
• 14:25
  think anybody is going
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_01: to be able to put those plans together And even if maybe the lefty,
• 14:32
  if there's a significant distrust of Kotech If they decide they
• 14:37
  don't like her
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_01: enough,
• 14:38
  they might try to put somebody on the ballot And that would be
• 14:41
  a huge difference in
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: the race and really affect her
• 14:43
  the race as well but I think the other thing the other thing
• 14:47
  Drazen's going to
• 14:48
  benefit from here is I think it'll be easier for her to
• 14:50
  consolidate Republicans
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_01: this time versus last time yeah I think so too
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_01: So, I mean, she's got a lot working for her.
• 14:58
  It may be that her strategy of running against Cotec again will
• 15:02
  actually work
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_01: better than the 2030 strategy of waiting for the open race.
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: and this is,
• 15:09
  SPEAKER_00: and we can move on to the legislative stuff,
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: but my final take on the state stuff,
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: just two days past,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 15:16
  is it may be our only path because seeing what I'm seeing in
• 15:21
  these purple...
• 15:23
  districts for legislative races we might have to go all in on a
• 15:28
  statewide race I
• 15:29
  don't because I mean it's going to get brutal yeah statewide
• 15:34
  might be our only play
• 15:36
  you are I'm starting to agree with you unfortunately on that
• 15:39
  front I don't want to
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: because I'm a legislative guy through and through but yeah
• 15:44
  so let's take a look now at the legislature so they did a weird
• 15:49
  thing they updated
• 15:50
  the results page and they changed it around it used to be and I
• 15:54
  swear it was even
• 15:54
  this way when I looked at it on Tuesday night where it would
• 15:57
  show the third
• 15:58
  district Democrat third district Republican now it shows all
• 16:01
  the Democrat races
• 16:02
  first and all the Republican I don't know what they changed I
• 16:04
  hate it they need to
• 16:05
  fix it go back because I want to be able to compare results to
• 16:08
  results obviously
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: but
• 16:10
  I'm with you I was doing I think I was looking Tuesday too and
• 16:13
  then somewhere along
• 16:14
  that night they switched it yeah so a bad change I will I'm
• 16:20
  gonna reach out I'm
• 16:20
  gonna email ask them to fix it for November I guess it won't be
• 16:24
  primaries in
• 16:25
  November it'll be generals but so anyway next time for
• 16:27
  primaries it's fixed so
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_01: Senate District 3 Democrats we were kind of
• 16:32
  Shrugging our shoulders We had no idea what to expect here A
• 16:36
  very close race Denise
• 16:37
  Kraus barely defeating Tonya Morrow 35-34 Now there was some We
• 16:44
  missed this on the
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_01: pod,
• 16:45
  Brian You had put it in the show notes I forgot to talk about
• 16:48
  it There was some
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_01: sort of weird Scandal that sort of showed up there
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_01: at the end.
• 16:55
  And there was some sort of like issue with a staffer that
• 16:58
  Denise Krause had hired
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_01: and then maybe fired and was accused of misconduct or something.
• 17:04
  So anyway,
• 17:05
  that could have hurt her there at the end,
• 17:06
  but it wasn't enough.
• 17:08
  SPEAKER_01: Tonya Morrow, Jeff Golden endorsed Tonya Morrow, does not defeat her.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_01: Denise Krause is the Democratic nominee for Senate District 3.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is
• 17:20
  A good news for Republicans though she's a damaged candidate
• 17:23
  potentially with some
• 17:25
  potential scandals hanging out there heading into a race
• 17:28
  against a great Republican
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_01: candidate Brad Hicks really well liked down in Southern Oregon
• 17:35
  So we will see with that race But I really like this matchup
• 17:38
  for Republicans I
• 17:39
  think And the Democrats are going to have to figure out How
• 17:42
  they're going to get
• 17:42
  money down there Because of course outside money Is something
• 17:45
  that is often hated
• 17:47
  By Southern Oregon And Brad Hicks is doing a good job raising
• 17:51
  funds So we'll cover
• 17:52
  his fundraising Over the summer and into the fall But I think a
• 17:55
  good result for
• 17:56
  ours in this one Not for Democrats Looks like there's only
• 17:59
  about 2,000 ballots left
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: to count
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_00: total for the county based on what I'm tracking here.
• 18:06
  So there might be a few more trickle in,
• 18:09
  but yeah,
• 18:10
  I think those results should hold.
• 18:13
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_01: And I also think Denise Krause has the endorsement of SEIU.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: So again,
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: unless Golden had a grassroots operation we weren't aware of out there,
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: then I would agree that this was likely to hold.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_01: But you never know.
• 18:29
  You do never know with these Democratic races Senate District
• 18:34
  11 So this is an
• 18:36
  interesting one to me Teresa Alonzo Leon tried to Mount a
• 18:42
  comeback bid In this
• 18:43
  primary to take on this open Seat currently held by Kim
• 18:47
  Thatcher She did very
• 18:48
  SPEAKER_01: poorly
• 18:49
  and loses to Virginia Stapleton former Salem City Council
• 18:53
  opponent against Kevin
• 18:54
  Mannix lost to him two years ago so she's running for Senate
• 18:58
  now and she wins this
• 18:59
  primary handily 67-32 I was kind of expecting this one to be
• 19:03
  closer yeah me too I
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_00: think this was but there was also some issues with
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Teresa Alonzo Leone's staff that she hired too.
• 19:13
  SPEAKER_00: There was some stuff that broke amongst the Democrat ranks.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_01: Yes,
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_01: she got unendorsed by Mother Pack because they found out that she,
• 19:22
  SPEAKER_01: in her private employment practice,
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: hired Diego Hernandez.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how to frame exactly him,
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_01: but anyway,
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_01: he resigned from the legislature in a scandal that resulted in
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_01: in Valderrama, Andrew Valderrama, taking his seat.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_01: And she was also the one that accused him of misconduct.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: So anyway, a lot going on there.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_01: But yes, that happened very late.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know that that affected the race.
• 19:51
  I think it was likely that she had already not gained any
• 19:55
  momentum,
• 19:55
  but maybe.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a little scandal.
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, well, I think Stapleton against Kramer...
• 20:09
  It's going to be a good one That's going to be one to watch
• 20:13
  That's the one I'm a
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: little afraid of Yes,
• 20:16
  so we need to watch that one Obviously very important for all
• 20:19
  Republicans to get
• 20:21
  behind and support Tracy Kramer This is a seat that Republicans
• 20:23
  definitely need to
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: hold Or we're going to have some serious problems in the legislature
• 20:31
  All right so this is the one that Brian I had told you we
• 20:36
  should podcast on
• 20:37
  Wednesday because all the results are going to be decided by
• 20:39
  Wednesday I was wrong
• 20:42
  Wednesday morning the result was Senator Solomon was ahead in
• 20:46
  her primary I was
• 20:48
  hearing from many Democrats that they thought that she had
• 20:51
  locked that race that
• 20:52
  SPEAKER_01: that it was dead or that it was done rather and that she
• 20:57
  And then Late Ballot Update As Is Common Wednesday Afternoon
• 21:02
  Late Wednesday
• 21:03
  Afternoon Myrna Munoz Pulled Ahead She's Now Ahead 49 Like 49.5
• 21:10
  To 48 Basically
• 21:11
  About 150 Votes Yeah 155 Somewhere In There And Yikes Yeah It's
• 21:14
  Really Bad A Bummer
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_00: For Salmon There's About
• 21:27
  see ballots counted 119,000 in Washington County and it's says
• 21:35
  there's 137,000
• 21:36
  turned in so this one is definitely not over not over but what
• 21:42
  what they need is
• 21:42
  for the remaining ballots to not be late harvested union
• 21:47
  ballots they need to hope
• 21:49
  that these are folks that voted early and then left the ballot
• 21:52
  on the kitchen table
• 21:53
  SPEAKER_01: until the last minute uh
• 21:55
  And that break more for Solomon like the early vote did versus
• 21:59
  these late votes,
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: which I kind of assume and I'm making an assumption.
• 22:03
  And it seems like Democrats,
• 22:05
  they have a more progressive late vote situation.
• 22:08
  But I do think that the unions were likely ballot harvesting in
• 22:11
  this race.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know how else you attribute these results to anything else.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: Especially the late,
• 22:17
  and you and I know and have plenty of experience of getting our
• 22:21
  asses handed to us
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_00: after an election's over by late ballots,
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_00: so from the union's procurement process,
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: so I would think this as well as that
• 22:32
  This is going to create an interesting dynamic in the
• 22:35
  legislature if it holds
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: though because one of the main things
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_01: So there's two things at play.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_01: First is being friendly with business.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_01: Solman was perceived as being and listening to business interests.
• 22:55
  SPEAKER_01: Washington County has generally been a moderate pro-business region.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, as late as
• 23:02
  2014 right this was a Republican held seat by Bruce Starr and
• 23:08
  then he ended up
• 23:08
  losing that race very close and then it was Chuck Riley for a
• 23:13
  little bit and then
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: Solomon but you know the Washington County Chamber
• 23:17
  Intel All these folks that are known to be very pro-business
• 23:22
  This is going to have,
• 23:22
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 23:23
  unfortunately a negative impact on Democrats and their
• 23:26
  relationship with business
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_01: Obviously electing an anti-business candidate,
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: a DSA candidate
• 23:32
  And then also the remaining Democrats that are still
• 23:35
  pro-business,
• 23:35
  right?
• 23:36
  SPEAKER_01: What are they going to choose to do?
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_01: Are they going to continue to be outspoken?
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: Are they going to be quieter behind the scenes?
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_01: Are they going to do less?
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_01: This is a really bad result,
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_01: unfortunately,
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 23:45
  SPEAKER_01: for the long term of this direction of the state.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and the dynamics of when you primary an incumbent and win
• 23:55
  SPEAKER_00: When that incumbent was supported by everybody else inside the caucus,
• 24:01
  SPEAKER_00: that's a very weird dynamic to walk into.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: If now we have a primary,
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: like the two Republican primaries we'll chat about,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: but where none of them were incumbents,
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: you just had one winner.
• 24:17
  It's just everybody just congratulates the winner and you move
• 24:21
  on right but having
• 24:22
  an incumbent primary and an incumbent is going to be
• 24:26
  interesting because Solomon
• 24:27
  had a lot of good friends in that caucus and I don't think
• 24:32
  people are going to take
• 24:33
  too kindly Munoz and it could could divide that caucus because
• 24:38
  now you have sisters
• 24:41
  In the legislature I mean that's wild In two different chambers
• 24:45
  And remember I
• 24:45
  think it was Shelley Bosard Davis Remember when her sister was
• 24:48
  running They were
• 24:49
  going to be the first sister duo Yeah Apparently we might have
• 24:53
  that now But it'll
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: be on the Democrat side
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yes.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_01: And then also,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 24:58
  SPEAKER_01: what does this do to the,
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_01: perceived or generally more moderate Democratic caucus,
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_01: It pushes them, obviously, more to the left.
• 25:09
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't know that Denise Krause and
• 25:12
  Southern Oregon is going to be any less left than Golden so
• 25:14
  right now you have an
• 25:15
  obvious leftward shift in the Democratic Senate caucus and I
• 25:21
  mean this is just
• 25:22
  unfortunately you have to add Solomon's name to the list of
• 25:26
  those like Rod Monroe
• 25:27
  who got primaried for voting no on key Democratic priorities
• 25:31
  yeah yeah it's going
• 25:34
  to be pretty pretty wild internally and I don't know how that
• 25:37
  shakes out for
• 25:38
  SPEAKER_00: leadership yeah
• 25:41
  Is leadership too differential to their moderates and will they
• 25:45
  get pushed now to
• 25:46
  SPEAKER_01: be less differential to the moderates and more
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_01: To knuckle down and really force people to vote for some of this.
• 25:53
  Although,
• 25:54
  again,
• 25:55
  I can't invent crazier stuff than they pass a lot of times.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_01: But you should see the stuff that dies that maybe won't die as much now.
• 26:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's going to be crazy.
• 26:06
  So that's pretty much all that mattered on the Democratic side
• 26:08
  of the ledger.
• 26:09
  The Republican side of the ledger is several results that I
• 26:14
  think are pretty interesting.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_01: First one, obviously, Senate District 6, Lane and Lynn Counties.
• 26:21
  SPEAKER_01: You're neck of the woods.
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, a close race.
• 26:24
  SPEAKER_00: Well,
• 26:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think that,
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 26:27
  SPEAKER_00: clearly,
• 26:29
  you could tie the Tibbetts and the Jacklow one because we could
• 26:31
  probably talk about
• 26:32
  SPEAKER_00: those at the same time just because they were running together.
• 26:36
  and that was clearly you know where Jamie was Jamie Kate was
• 26:40
  losing ground was just
• 26:43
  within that kind of hard right you know male crowd that she
• 26:49
  wasn't gonna win and
• 26:50
  she was getting hit pretty hard from Tibbetts on being a
• 26:54
  liberal I guess and you
• 26:57
  SPEAKER_00: know Jamie didn't really want to go negative she
• 27:01
  didn't want to do certain things and you know and she was gonna
• 27:05
  just leave it up to
• 27:07
  the voters with who they wanted to vote for and it wasn't her
• 27:11
  yeah she is she lost
• 27:14
  and I think that's the same with you know Sanchez Angelito
• 27:17
  losing against Jackalow
• 27:19
  there was a clear push in you know portions of Linn County that
• 27:23
  just weren't they
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: just didn't want to hear it now I I've heard
• 27:28
  SPEAKER_00: Some people say it's an anti-woman and,
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: Republican politics kind of thing That's the case,
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_00: then how do you explain Drazen?
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: You know, because Drazen won Linn County, right?
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: Or did Ed Deal win Linn County?
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_01: I gotta double check,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_00: but I'm assuming Drazen won Linn No,
• 27:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think Ed Deal won Linn County Oh,
• 27:47
  SPEAKER_00: did he really?
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_01: I was not paying attention to that Yeah, I think I looked that up, but
• 27:55
  SPEAKER_00: That was the interesting dynamic.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't know if, you know, yeah, if you look at Republican.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: Wow.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_00: He won it 50 to 33.
• 28:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 28:08
  So,
• 28:09
  you know,
• 28:09
  maybe there was some of that that probably played into it,
• 28:13
  I guess.
• 28:13
  SPEAKER_00: I think there's clearly there was a third candidate,
• 28:16
  SPEAKER_00: Nicole DeGraff,
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_00: that,
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:18
  SPEAKER_00: Jamie gets her vote,
• 28:19
  SPEAKER_00: she wins.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, close enough there.
• 28:23
  SPEAKER_00: But I think that so if there was an anti-
• 28:26
  SPEAKER_00: You know, female or if it was just an anti-Jamie bias.
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you never know at the end of the day.
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 28:32
  SPEAKER_00: she won Lenn County still,
• 28:34
  SPEAKER_00: but she didn't win it enough to make up for what she lost in Lenn County.
• 28:38
  SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, the only one got to be kicking himself right now is Harvick.
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: Right,
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_01: because originally Harvick had wanted to run,
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_01: and it looks like he,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: I would guess,
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: I assume he would have got at least the same as Tibbetts would have got.
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_01: Probably wouldn't have done worse than Tibbetts.
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't have doubted, I think so.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: And now he gets to look at Jack being in the Senate,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_00: and he's going to stay in the House forever.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and this is one of the, we've talked about this dynamic where
• 29:05
  a lot of the house doesn't actually run for the senate they
• 29:08
  tend to stay put right
• 29:10
  and so you get a lot of these senators that have never been
• 29:12
  house members and
• 29:13
  that's how you get them is when they decide you know i'm gonna
• 29:16
  keep my powder dry i
• 29:16
  don't want to risk it and so then you get like jack who's not
• 29:19
  served in office in
• 29:21
  oregon anyway um before so yeah and then you got an emerson
• 29:25
  levy scenario where you
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: know she has to run the hard race all the time and
• 29:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Anthony Brodman just goes right to the Senate.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_00: So it happens on both sides of the aisle.
• 29:35
  SPEAKER_00: It does.
• 29:36
  You know,
• 29:37
  Jamie took a risk and she lost and it's just that's how things
• 29:40
  happen.
• 29:40
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, what are you going to do?
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_00: I feel sorry for,
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think that there is a but,
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_00: hopefully Jack is,
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 29:49
  doesn't act like a Democrat like he was in California when he
• 29:53
  gets into the
• 29:53
  SPEAKER_00: legislature.
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll see.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: But who knows?
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you know, if we're down or
• 29:58
  If we're only at 11 Senators at that point Maybe it's more of a
• 30:01
  better play It will
• 30:04
  be interesting to watch some of these new folks As they come in
• 30:07
  and who they decide
• 30:08
  to align themselves with And I think that'll be obviously
• 30:11
  something we can cover at
• 30:12
  the podcast In terms of who's hanging out with who and who's
• 30:16
  doing what Yep
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: That part will be interesting to play out So moving up to the coast,
• 30:23
  the only other one we had in the Senate was just the open seat
• 30:27
  for Weber's seat up
• 30:28
  in Northwest Oregon There was three people that basically came
• 30:32
  down to trip,
• 30:33
  Dietrich and Courtney Bangs Courtney Bangs was the clear
• 30:38
  favorite all along to
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_00: begin with,
• 30:41
  SPEAKER_00: being the Clatsop County Commissioner
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_00: Crosstabs
• 30:59
  to still win by a wide margin I find we never went negative on
• 31:04
  our side so he just
• 31:05
  wanted to run a race and we had some negative stuff ready to go
• 31:09
  we never went
• 31:09
  negative but you know I don't I don't like doing negative in
• 31:15
  primaries I just I
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: just don't like it but maybe maybe I should learn
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: To go super negative, super early, super fast all the time.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_00: Just screw everybody, right?
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: And I just don't...
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_00: I guess it's because I work in the building too, Reagan.
• 31:32
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's probably why.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, that might be a flaw in my...
• 31:38
  You've got to define your opponent early,
• 31:40
  especially if they're not defined.
• 31:41
  And I think that that is one of the lessons that you can learn
• 31:46
  from some of these
• 31:47
  primaries is that coming out early to define somebody can work
• 31:52
  if they don't have a
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_01: pre-existing kind of record or familiarity,
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 31:59
  I mean,
• 31:59
  I think Tripp was definitely known,
• 32:01
  but he wasn't known in the political arena,
• 32:03
  right?
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, yeah.
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 32:05
  Well I didn't you know winning was not you know it wasn't like
• 32:09
  oh we're gonna let's
• 32:11
  wasn't really like let's run to win let's just run to you know
• 32:15
  get I don't know
• 32:16
  really what I mean you always want to win but we knew it was a
• 32:20
  very tough yes
• 32:22
  uphill battle to begin with so I think there wasn't really the
• 32:26
  expectation of
• 32:27
  SPEAKER_00: winning wasn't as high I would say compared to like a Jamie Cate so
• 32:31
  And I would say candidates too I mean don't take this loss And
• 32:34
  assume that you can
• 32:35
  never get elected I think sometimes it's just about the right
• 32:37
  race At the right
• 32:38
  SPEAKER_00: time Most people lose their first race
• 32:43
  Even Tim Knopp lost his first race You can definitely turn a
• 32:48
  loss into a victory
• 32:49
  later on but it's about being consistent and going out there
• 32:54
  and working harder
• 32:55
  even than you did last time That's what my dad learned
• 32:58
  especially from his first
• 32:59
  race He could have knocked more doors and maybe have won his
• 33:02
  primary and he didn't
• 33:03
  and he learned from that He consistently knocked an enormous
• 33:09
  amount of doors every
• 33:10
  SPEAKER_01: time he ran for office and
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_01: Certainly,
• 33:12
  I think that's the number one thing We'll get to some other
• 33:16
  races The rumor was
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_01: candidates weren't knocking You gotta knock if you want to win,
• 33:21
  SPEAKER_01: man
• 33:23
  it seems to be that way on some level I mean definitely have to
• 33:26
  be active while
• 33:28
  we're up there we might as well do the House District 32 real
• 33:31
  quick yeah so this
• 33:33
  was one of those ones where nobody knew what was going to
• 33:35
  happen really and the
• 33:36
  result even on election night was all over the place right
• 33:39
  because it started I
• 33:40
  think Adam Dean may have started up or maybe Honol was up in
• 33:44
  the first drop and
• 33:45
  then Dean and then it ended with Max Sherman who appears to be
• 33:49
  the winner of this
• 33:50
  SPEAKER_01: one
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 33:51
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 33:52
  so Adam Dean won Clatsop County and Max Sherman and Christian
• 33:58
  Honnell won Columbia
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: County,
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: which wasn't that many votes,
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_00: but,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_00: and then Max Sherman won Tillema County.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_01: That's funny.
• 34:05
  And Tillema County was where the lion's share of the
• 34:08
  Republicans are in that district.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_00: So there was that, that, they didn't turn out as high, but Max won
• 34:18
  60% of almost 60% of Tillamook County which was really what
• 34:23
  going into this one we
• 34:24
  knew that's what we had to do is we had to perform in Tillamook
• 34:30
  County we always
• 34:31
  knew that Max Sherman was the one to beat he's been there a
• 34:34
  long time you know
• 34:35
  everybody Tillamook knows him and so yeah yeah so he's going to
• 34:40
  move on and face
• 34:41
  Javity and we will see what happens this one I'm really really
• 34:45
  worried about is
• 34:46
  SPEAKER_00: where
• 34:47
  SPEAKER_00: Where do the non-affiliated voters go?
• 34:50
  Because the Democrats turned out at a slightly higher tick
• 34:53
  Probably similar to what
• 34:55
  the registration It's already still a plus I think Four or five
• 35:00
  Democrat voter
• 35:01
  registration advantage So if non-affiliated voters don't swing
• 35:06
  right Then Javity
• 35:07
  SPEAKER_00: could win again And that would be a bummer Yes And what looks to be
• 35:15
  probably a worse cycle than we had in 2018 coming up yeah and
• 35:21
  that's what obviously
• 35:22
  what the Republicans nationally need to and are working on
• 35:25
  trying to change the
• 35:26
  environment but if they do not succeed by making some changes
• 35:30
  or passing some bills
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_01: or
• 35:32
  doing something getting gas prices down this could be a pretty
• 35:35
  challenging election
• 35:36
  unfortunately in one where Javity should be vulnerable and
• 35:39
  beatable but there's
• 35:42
  always a chance that we can still pull the victory out even in
• 35:45
  a tough year because
• 35:46
  of how high turnout is in Oregon like we've said before a
• 35:50
  little less susceptible
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_00: to wave years on both sides yeah I think so I think it's going to be in
• 35:58
  We'll see We've got a long ways to change it There's a lot of
• 36:03
  things that can
• 36:03
  happen between now and November I get all that But if you look
• 36:08
  at It's not going to
• 36:11
  get dramatically better for Republicans at this point At the
• 36:15
  state level Because
• 36:16
  Trump will still be president You can't change that There's
• 36:20
  some systemic things
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_00: that we're not going to be able to change Yes,
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_00: could
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_00: Gas prices and some of those other things get better.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_00: Sure.
• 36:28
  SPEAKER_00: But it's like, who do people blame for that?
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_00: And so I just don't see Trump's going to get some blame no matter what.
• 36:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I just don't see how it gets better for us.
• 36:40
  SPEAKER_00: At this point, I don't see how it gets better for Republicans in Oregon.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_01: and what I was hearing from,
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: I was listening to Ruthless,
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_01: and they were talking about,
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_01: it's not so much that the party out of power wins,
• 36:52
  SPEAKER_01: it's just the party in power loses.
• 36:55
  SPEAKER_01: And obviously, nationally, that's Republicans.
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: And so maybe because Democrats are in charge of the state government,
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_01: and so it's sort of a shared blame situation,
• 37:06
  SPEAKER_01: and that also helps insulate the Republicans from more losses.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_01: We can hope.
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_01: What else matters in the House of Representatives?
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like Adam Baker is barely I mean,
• 37:20
  SPEAKER_00: he's up by 112 votes in Clackamas County Against,
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_01: is that Sue Leslie?
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: Yep,
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: in that primary So Adam is You know,
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: he should hold on to that one,
• 37:33
  I think So That one I'm a little concerned about for the fall
• 37:38
  too Just because if
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_00: you just look at
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: On the other side of that is the Democrat side.
• 37:45
  See,
• 37:46
  and I hate this thing because I have to scroll up and down all
• 37:48
  the time.
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: Tobias, I'm telling you, buddy, let's get this fixed.
• 37:54
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_00: It's a problem.
• 37:56
  And it looks like Michael Sugar dispatched the perennial
• 37:59
  candidate,
• 38:00
  Charles Galea.
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_01: I thought that would be closer.
• 38:03
  SPEAKER_01: Holy smokes, that was a straight up blowout.
• 38:05
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he smoked him pretty well.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_00: So it'll be Sugar versus Baker.
• 38:11
  SPEAKER_00: That is kind of funny,
• 38:12
  SPEAKER_00: the sugar in the baker Oh man I just realized that,
• 38:17
  SPEAKER_00: that's hilarious If we don't get more turnout though with Republicans,
• 38:23
  SPEAKER_00: I mean we're going to get smoked in that race I mean I just,
• 38:27
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 38:28
  SPEAKER_00: nearly 7,000 Democrats voted in that primary and only 5,188 Republicans
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_01: and friend of the program,
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_01: Anessa Hartman,
• 38:38
  SPEAKER_01: she did very well in her last race in that one,
• 38:41
  SPEAKER_01: not against Adam Baker,
• 38:42
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 38:43
  SPEAKER_01: She had a different opponent two years ago.
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_01: But if the seat performs the same,
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_01: unfortunately,
• 38:47
  we're going to have to take some credit away from her on that
• 38:49
  and just say this is
• 38:50
  the new performance of House District 40 and not the massively
• 38:55
  popular incumbency,
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_01: that advantage that maybe we thought she had.
• 38:59
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, this is true.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's a good point to lay into it.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_00: Well, we'll see.
• 39:05
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, we're going to see.
• 39:06
  But based on what I saw in Clackamas County with our next pod
• 39:10
  that we'll talk about
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_00: with Clackamas County races,
• 39:12
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 39:13
  SPEAKER_00: Ben West is losing.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 39:16
  SPEAKER_00: Clackamas County,
• 39:17
  maybe they've been injured by the Multnomah County people
• 39:21
  moving to Clackamas
• 39:22
  SPEAKER_00: County.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_01: That's what I was actually starting to think about that as well.
• 39:26
  SPEAKER_01: Now,
• 39:27
  I know the primary results aren't always indicative of the
• 39:30
  general election,
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_01: so I understand that.
• 39:33
  But you can't help but compare the numbers,
• 39:34
  obviously,
• 39:34
  because it's the only data you have.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_01: And here's another one.
• 39:37
  SPEAKER_01: So District 7,
• 39:38
  Corey Rodley easily won that primary with 60% of the vote to be
• 39:42
  the Democratic
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_01: nominee.
• 39:44
  compared so they got in that race 5,200 votes that are 5,200
• 39:49
  and then you scroll
• 39:50
  down to the race with Adam Wilson in the seventh 2,800 votes
• 39:56
  not a great showing
• 39:58
  now obviously not competitive not as much reason to vote I
• 40:00
  totally get I understand
• 40:02
  all that not great though you'd like to see those numbers be a
• 40:05
  lot closer because
• 40:07
  turnout is indicative to what's going to happen in the fall
• 40:10
  like if they're not
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_00: turning out now they're not turning out in the fall
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_01: And you're not winning independence in NAVS 80-20, right?
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_01: So that would make up for that.
• 40:18
  And another spot where we level won that commissioner race four
• 40:23
  years ago and then
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_00: got destroyed.
• 40:25
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_00: And that's basically House District 7.
• 40:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_00: You mean Fireside?
• 40:32
  SPEAKER_00: My Fireside and 7 didn't win?
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: Did not work.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_01: The spillover from the negatives in Clackamas appears to have beaten her.
• 40:41
  It also probably had something to do with Rodley getting all
• 40:44
  the endorsements and the money.
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's funny.
• 40:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 40:48
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: Smith won.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's important to note.
• 40:51
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_00: 545.
• 40:53
  SPEAKER_01: Yep,
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_01: and I think that is,
• 40:57
  SPEAKER_01: I would say maybe a tad closer than I expected,
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_01: but about,
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_01: you definitely have,
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_01: he's got some challenging headlines to deal with,
• 41:05
  SPEAKER_01: obviously,
• 41:05
  SPEAKER_01: so,
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 41:07
  SPEAKER_01: that could be tough.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_01: And Doherty had just run a race for state senate,
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_01: too,
• 41:11
  SPEAKER_01: so he was able to carry some name ID over,
• 41:13
  SPEAKER_01: which probably helped him as well.
• 41:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I think so.
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's just some people that just don't like Greg, right?
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, they don't like the way he goes about his job.
• 41:22
  SPEAKER_00: And that shows up in the 45%.
• 41:23
  SPEAKER_00: But 55% still voted for him and still doing...
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_00: Doing okay,
• 41:32
  SPEAKER_00: and once you win by one vote or,
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 41:35
  SPEAKER_00: a thousand votes,
• 41:36
  SPEAKER_00: it would make a difference.
• 41:37
  SPEAKER_00: A win's a win's a win.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_01: A win's a win.
• 41:40
  SPEAKER_01: Alcester51,
• 41:41
  SPEAKER_01: Matt Bunch,
• 41:42
  SPEAKER_01: the Crosstabs program,
• 41:43
  propels him to victory in his primary or maybe his incumbency
• 41:48
  in great campaign.
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_01: We may never know.
• 41:51
  SPEAKER_01: But yes, friend of the program, Matt Bunch, wins his primary.
• 41:55
  SPEAKER_01: So that was good to see.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_01: I'm scrolling through...
• 41:57
  SPEAKER_00: Let's hop ship to that state rep 27 district on the Democrats.
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, man.
• 42:03
  So this is another one of those where first results and even
• 42:07
  the second results of
• 42:08
  SPEAKER_01: the night had the what I'll call the good Democrat,
• 42:12
  SPEAKER_01: if there is such a thing,
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_01: which I still think there is,
• 42:15
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_01: they're still Democrats,
• 42:17
  SPEAKER_00: but there's the Hartmeyer Prigg.
• 42:19
  yeah she was ahead in that race and now and she yeah and so
• 42:24
  that's the thing that's
• 42:25
  crazy with these democratic primaries is how fast they can
• 42:29
  shift with the ballot
• 42:30
  harvesting or whatever else was going on in that particular
• 42:33
  race but now democratic
• 42:35
  SPEAKER_01: socialist uh pro-palestine
• 42:39
  Palestine Teachers Association Portland Teachers Association
• 42:44
  Tammy Carpenter
• 42:44
  appears to be leading and I think close obviously so like you
• 42:49
  said what the
• 42:50
  outstanding ballots do matter but yeah not looking good yeah
• 42:54
  that's that's wild so
• 42:57
  and that one and I wasn't sure but I was talking a couple a
• 43:01
  couple of D's and they
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_00: think if she wins that really divides that house caucus too so
• 43:09
  SPEAKER_00: because there was a lot of them that threw down for Ashley.
• 43:13
  and that's another one of those where and maybe they'll get
• 43:15
  over their hurt
• 43:16
  feelings but because it's an open seat so it's not like it was
• 43:20
  you know it wasn't
• 43:21
  an incumbent because Daniel Wynn won really well and easily in
• 43:25
  his other in his
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_01: primary so yeah but the unions were divided in that race and that was the
• 43:30
  difference which is in in this one they were not and
• 43:32
  unfortunately this is one of
• 43:33
  those clear situations again where you're replacing a moderate
• 43:37
  like Helm with a uh
• 43:40
  SPEAKER_01: Far left person like Carpenter.
• 43:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's a problem.
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_01: And yes, I do agree.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to divide their caucus.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_01: It's going to,
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_01: I think,
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_01: trigger the creation of the Socialist Caucus as well,
• 43:50
  which is going to be a really interesting dynamic to follow in
• 43:54
  session as well.
• 43:54
  SPEAKER_01: I'm pretty sure Nelson's DSA he had it on his website forever
• 44:22
  SPEAKER_01: It was there and then maybe it wasn't.
• 44:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'll go look right now and see where he's at right now.
• 44:27
  SPEAKER_01: But yeah, I've never heard of him.
• 44:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm with you.
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 44:29
  SPEAKER_00: those guys are going to feel a lot of,
• 44:31
  SPEAKER_00: all of them,
• 44:32
  SPEAKER_00: if they want to be maybe on the normal side,
• 44:35
  SPEAKER_00: they're going to be kind of pushed to that left side of the area.
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_00: Which doesn't bode well again for Republicans especially.
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_00: So if that means it's just that much harder of a fight to make
• 44:52
  you know the bills that come through the legislature that just
• 44:54
  makes those fights
• 44:54
  that just that much harder so you know I think maybe he hasn't
• 44:58
  updated his website
• 44:59
  because his endorsements include Attorney General Ellen
• 45:03
  Rosenblum and Labor
• 45:04
  Commissioner Val Hoyle somebody's paying attention to his state
• 45:10
  representative
• 45:11
  Brian Clem Tiger Tualatin School Board President Ben Bowman
• 45:15
  this is funny you
• 45:17
  SPEAKER_00: should send that to Bowman I will that's pretty good
• 45:22
  oh man all right well hey real quick um because I got to catch
• 45:26
  a plane yeah no
• 45:28
  problem Dwayne Yunker fends off Seth Benham so that was a
• 45:34
  primary there uh Seth was
• 45:35
  SPEAKER_00: yeah had a decent amount of money uh
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 45:40
  SPEAKER_00: but Dwayne,
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_00: clearly Josephine County,
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_00: which voted for Drazen,
• 45:45
  SPEAKER_00: which I thought was interesting.
• 45:47
  SPEAKER_01: Despite all of Yunker's tweets.
• 45:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, right?
• 45:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's crazy.
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_01: He couldn't help Ed Deal win his own county.
• 45:58
  That is interesting too and I think like this just goes to tell
• 46:02
  you that voter
• 46:05
  behavior is not always like they don't always have all the
• 46:08
  information we're
• 46:09
  political nerds we have a lot of the information all in one
• 46:12
  spot a lot of times
• 46:13
  they don't they go Dwayne Younger is a state rep he's the
• 46:16
  current state rep he
• 46:17
  SPEAKER_01: hasn't done anything bad I'm electing him
• 46:19
  Drazen I saw her on the ballot last time I'm gonna vote for it
• 46:22
  like it'll it'll get
• 46:23
  down to be that simple for a lot of folks and so that just
• 46:27
  tells you that voters
• 46:29
  and the fact that we have individual one person one vote means
• 46:32
  they don't all think
• 46:33
  SPEAKER_01: like a monolith everybody thinks differently and they get to make choices
• 46:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah, it's true.
• 46:38
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, it is odd.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_00: So Boomer right seat, District 9, Claire Lynn easily won there.
• 46:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I was a little surprised by the margin there.
• 46:48
  I mean,
• 46:49
  she did obviously raise and spend quite a bit of money,
• 46:51
  and that can help.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_00: She raised a ton of money, and
• 46:54
  SPEAKER_00: And yeah,
• 46:55
  SPEAKER_00: she and then Troy,
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 46:56
  he had he had some drag with his wife being a Democrat and
• 46:59
  stuff and and Claire
• 47:02
  SPEAKER_00: getting to write the life endorsement and Troy didn't.
• 47:04
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean, but she it was definitely a way higher margin.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_00: We thought the 60 year old versus a 26 year old would be.
• 47:12
  I guess that's not a problem so no and I and that I mean that's
• 47:17
  something that
• 47:17
  Republicans will obviously watch in terms of okay who do I have
• 47:20
  do I have the
• 47:21
  support from the certain groups and pay attention to that so I
• 47:25
  think that bolsters
• 47:26
  you know the need to have pro-life candidates in a lot of ways
• 47:30
  I mean you're seeing
• 47:30
  the evidence of that in some of these races where Republicans
• 47:33
  are they're very
• 47:34
  pro-life party and so that I think that hurt Dudley too at this
• 47:39
  point yeah
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think you're right.
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think that was,
• 47:43
  SPEAKER_00: it's a big,
• 47:44
  SPEAKER_00: it is a wedge issue for,
• 47:46
  SPEAKER_00: especially in a Republican primary,
• 47:48
  SPEAKER_00: and it's just not one you can overcome.
• 47:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't believe, you know, Dudley proved it.
• 47:53
  SPEAKER_00: Troy proved it.
• 47:53
  SPEAKER_00: So, yep, point taken.
• 47:59
  I think you have to just look at it that way right so we talked
• 48:02
  about Jack already
• 48:04
  so in I mean both those two were pro-life but you know Angelita
• 48:09
  was kind of hit by
• 48:10
  they hit her pretty hard on what showing up Black Lives Matter
• 48:13
  with the mask yeah
• 48:14
  they had a picture of her in a mask that they put on a couple
• 48:16
  different mailers I
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: don't know if that would have
• 48:18
  I don't know if there was something that happened the day
• 48:20
  before or what but anyway
• 48:21
  SPEAKER_01: so he left the Republican Party and then rejoined
• 48:42
  and but he was still because he had support from the there's
• 48:45
  this crazy Lebanon
• 48:46
  group called the Conservative Alliance and they back very you
• 48:49
  know so he may have
• 48:50
  still that may have covered him on that front and given people
• 48:53
  the view he was
• 48:53
  still the more conservative candidate in a lot of ways
• 48:56
  interesting moving right up
• 49:01
  from Jack was into 17 Dan Carrington wins a deal see this is a
• 49:06
  deal seat that he
• 49:07
  SPEAKER_00: left so yeah this one surprised me as well
• 49:10
  Yeah I think except for you know that that adage of I mean Ed
• 49:14
  was very you know Ed
• 49:16
  did very well in this district and he's the endorsement that
• 49:21
  Farrington you know he
• 49:22
  endorsed Dan and so riding those coattails you know Kim Wallen
• 49:27
  always tells me that
• 49:28
  the state in a state rep seat the person that hands it off to
• 49:32
  you it has a good
• 49:35
  SPEAKER_00: margin on that one but Gerard was endorsing
• 49:39
  Beth Jones and uh you know and Farrington won by about 700
• 49:43
  votes which is roughly
• 49:45
  10 percent of the electorate so yeah that's uh that was a
• 49:51
  bummer for Beth because
• 49:53
  this is her second time now trying to run in this seat yeah and
• 49:57
  Dan moved over here
• 49:58
  because he ran against Paul Evans in 22 oh that's right I
• 50:02
  forgot about that one
• 50:03
  Yeah,
• 50:03
  so he moved into the district and then became friends with Ed
• 50:07
  and won.
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know.
• 50:10
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody slugged mud in this seat.
• 50:13
  SPEAKER_01: You didn't see any negatives in that one?
• 50:15
  SPEAKER_00: Dan didn't go negative.
• 50:17
  SPEAKER_00: So I mean, I wish Dan well.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_00: I like Dan.
• 50:20
  SPEAKER_00: I recruited him in 22 to run against Paul Evans.
• 50:23
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm looking forward to having him in the caucus and hopefully he'll be
• 50:30
  SPEAKER_00: A good dude,
• 50:31
  which I think he is It would be nice to have him there It was
• 50:36
  an open seat Put your
• 50:38
  marbles out there and see how it plays I think the last one is
• 50:42
  District 18 With
• 50:44
  Amanda Steely beating Brian Starr 42-33 So a 9.8 to 9 point
• 50:49
  victory They're a great
• 50:50
  SPEAKER_01: showing for her
• 50:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, Ben is there also.
• 50:58
  SPEAKER_00: He has 11%.
• 50:59
  SPEAKER_01: He did come in third.
• 51:01
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, he did okay.
• 51:02
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, three guys, or four guys and a female.
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, she definitely played on the female thing.
• 51:08
  SPEAKER_00: I thought...
• 51:09
  SPEAKER_00: Brian will do a little bit better.
• 51:10
  SPEAKER_00: We ran out of money at the end.
• 51:12
  SPEAKER_00: That might have been the difference.
• 51:14
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what she did at the end.
• 51:15
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't really see a whole bunch from her.
• 51:18
  SPEAKER_00: But sometimes when you're again, that goes back to that thing.
• 51:21
  Are they are they really are is the Republican Party wanting
• 51:26
  angry white men?
• 51:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 51:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 51:42
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats are often discriminating um
• 52:05
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, Amanda.
• 52:06
  SPEAKER_00: Amanda's great, though.
• 52:07
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I talked to her before.
• 52:09
  SPEAKER_01: I've heard some great things about her as well.
• 52:11
  SPEAKER_00: She's a farmer, and so she comes from the greenhouse community, right?
• 52:18
  So she's part of that whole crew,
• 52:20
  and they threw in a ton of money into her race.
• 52:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I think they threw everything they had in their pack.
• 52:26
  at her because and you know what though Reagan that's what you
• 52:28
  should do when
• 52:30
  you're an association all in to win absolutely you have one of
• 52:33
  your members like
• 52:33
  she was president of the nursery association so it's like like
• 52:38
  they Jeff Stone and
• 52:40
  that whole crew good kudos to you guys for throwing all in
• 52:43
  behind one of your
• 52:44
  members yeah because we've seen some other people that run from
• 52:47
  their membership
• 52:48
  SPEAKER_00: and then they're like
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_00: Hey guys, you wanted me to run and then they're nowhere to be found.
• 52:52
  SPEAKER_00: You're like, here's five grand.
• 52:53
  SPEAKER_01: We help you in.
• 52:54
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 52:56
  I think that's super solid I think the silver lining in this
• 53:03
  one is that she was
• 53:04
  able to get her group to really throw down for her and win and
• 53:08
  so that's awesome
• 53:10
  from that standpoint an open seat again and it's a full
• 53:15
  Republican seat so there's
• 53:17
  no general election here to worry about so it was put your best
• 53:21
  cards out there and
• 53:23
  you know she done a good job so and i like her i think she's
• 53:26
  she's a good person
• 53:27
  and she's going to be a good state rep so yeah um all right i
• 53:32
  think we about
• 53:33
  covered it uh district 52 scott haggie is it haggie haggie yeah
• 53:38
  yeah good guy good
• 53:40
  guy excited for him clock he was a only problem is he's a
• 53:45
  commissioner so we'll see
• 53:46
  SPEAKER_00: yeah
• 53:47
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll see.
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_01: Against, on the Democratic side of the ledger, Hake Sanders.
• 53:52
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's right.
• 53:52
  SPEAKER_00: We didn't talk about that one, yeah.
• 53:54
  Who did not have most of the endorsements,
• 53:56
  did not have the unions with him.
• 53:58
  SPEAKER_01: Younger guy, too, which is interesting.
• 54:01
  Another one of those where even Democrats,
• 54:03
  I guess,
• 54:04
  they don't age discriminate either,
• 54:06
  so...
• 54:07
  SPEAKER_01: Well, I think actually that they prefer younger candidates.
• 54:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think Virginia Stapleton's younger than Teresa Lonzo Leone.
• 54:13
  SPEAKER_01: I think Democrats are having a pro-youth movement right now.
• 54:19
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that there's a lot of evidence of that.
• 54:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Hank Sanders won pretty handily.
• 54:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, 45-35, you know.
• 54:27
  SPEAKER_00: So the sun, nepotism exists on the Democrat side again.
• 54:34
  SPEAKER_01: Listen, he earned this.
• 54:36
  SPEAKER_00: So it's not nepotism exactly.
• 54:38
  SPEAKER_00: Wait a minute.
• 54:39
  SPEAKER_00: How much money did his mom give him?
• 54:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's what we have to look at.
• 54:42
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's a good question.
• 54:43
  While you're looking at that,
• 54:45
  I mean,
• 54:45
  so the only group really that he had an endorsement from
• 54:49
  was Moms Demand Action and the rest it was just all individual
• 54:54
  endorsements he had
• 54:55
  some legislators obviously and stuff like that but yeah he had
• 54:59
  some so a huge
• 55:01
  credit to him I met him very briefly at the end of the last
• 55:04
  legislative session
• 55:05
  seems like a great guy I am really looking forward to getting
• 55:08
  to to know him and
• 55:10
  SPEAKER_01: see what he's about at the legislature and
• 55:13
  He does have at the very top of his issues page restrictions on
• 55:16
  data centers,
• 55:17
  SPEAKER_01: which I think is interesting.
• 55:19
  SPEAKER_00: Especially in that district with Google being in the Dallas and stuff,
• 55:23
  SPEAKER_00: that issue is going to play out in that race.
• 55:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 55:31
  SPEAKER_00: So that's going to be very interesting.
• 55:33
  SPEAKER_00: So Senator Reynolds did give him $4,000 totals.
• 55:36
  SPEAKER_01: That's not enough to buy a seat.
• 55:39
  SPEAKER_01: That's not enough.
• 55:40
  SPEAKER_01: You got to have millions.
• 55:41
  SPEAKER_01: No, I'm just kidding.
• 55:43
  SPEAKER_01: But no, I think it's great.
• 55:44
  SPEAKER_01: And I'm sure I saw them out door knocking and stuff like that.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_01: There were other things that you can do as a legislator to push support.
• 55:51
  But I mean,
• 55:52
  look,
• 55:52
  this is one where they overcame the unions and the unions got
• 55:55
  beat,
• 55:56
  right?
• 55:56
  SPEAKER_01: And so maybe they
• 55:57
  They were too busy knocking doors in Hillsboro to make it over
• 56:00
  to Hood River,
• 56:01
  right?
• 56:02
  SPEAKER_01: They were just going alphabetical, but my son just fell off the couch.
• 56:05
  SPEAKER_00: What's so funny is he's anti-data center on his thing,
• 56:08
  SPEAKER_00: but I see a bunch of expenditures to Facebook for ads.
• 56:12
  SPEAKER_00: That is always my favorite.
• 56:14
  SPEAKER_01: It's okay.
• 56:15
  SPEAKER_01: It's okay.
• 56:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yes, my favorite is the AI-generated graphics opposing data centers.
• 56:22
  SPEAKER_01: That's funny stuff right there.
• 56:24
  We'll cover that more over the summer because I think data
• 56:27
  centers and socialists,
• 56:31
  those are going to be some of the top two things that we are
• 56:34
  going to end up
• 56:35
  SPEAKER_01: dealing with at the legislature.
• 56:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's going to be pretty wild, Reagan.
• 56:39
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're in for
• 56:42
  SPEAKER_00: And it'll play out in these campaigns,
• 56:44
  because the campaigns will give us a preview where people stand
• 56:47
  on certain issues,
• 56:48
  SPEAKER_00: but like the data center stuff is going to bubble up,
• 56:51
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 56:52
  SPEAKER_00: and we'll talk about what the local elections won when we do that,
• 56:55
  SPEAKER_00: because that really came to play in Deschutes County,
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_00: too,
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_00: and it's going to be huge over here,
• 56:59
  SPEAKER_00: but...
• 57:00
  SPEAKER_01: And the question I think business has to ask themselves at this point,
• 57:03
  because I think we've been trending a direction where business
• 57:07
  has been looking for
• 57:09
  SPEAKER_01: good Democrats,
• 57:10
  and they've invested quite a bit into finding and supporting
• 57:14
  and defending good
• 57:15
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats.
• 57:16
  SPEAKER_01: And those investments, for the most part, are not paying off.
• 57:20
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 57:39
  And so they're going to have to kind of make a determination in
• 57:42
  the summer.
• 57:42
  SPEAKER_01: Are we investing in Republicans winning or not?
• 57:44
  That's going to be an important to see where the fundraising
• 57:47
  lines up,
• 57:47
  right?
• 57:47
  SPEAKER_01: Do Republicans
• 58:00
  Republicans can't afford at the legislature to get absolutely
• 58:04
  blown out of the
• 58:05
  SPEAKER_01: water on fundraising like they did last time with the leaders there.
• 58:10
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a big question.
• 58:13
  SPEAKER_01: Something to watch as well.
• 58:15
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 58:16
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 58:16
  SPEAKER_01: Pretty crazy.
• 58:17
  SPEAKER_00: We'll watch.
• 58:17
  SPEAKER_00: All right, buddy.
• 58:18
  SPEAKER_00: Well, get out to it.
• 58:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be
• 58:21
  I'm heading down to Arizona for a week so uh by the way for
• 58:25
  anyone who's worried
• 58:26
  our couch has a little pull out step and he just missed his
• 58:30
  foot and fell on the
• 58:31
  floor on that step he's fine now I just want to make sure I
• 58:34
  said I said very
• 58:35
  casually he fell off the couch I want to make it clear he's
• 58:38
  doing okay he's now
• 58:39
  standing outside watching his dog so he's he's good Owen's fine
• 58:42
  everybody God bless
• 58:45
  SPEAKER_00: him well thanks Brian have a good time
• 58:50
  SPEAKER_00: Alright, later.
• 58:51
  SPEAKER_00: Bye.