Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/28/26: Iran UK Threat Incident, Iran Ready For Doomsday War, OpenAI Agent Swarm Attacks

Transcript

9/28/26: Iran UK Threat Incident, Iran Ready For Doomsday War, OpenAI Agent Swarm Attacks · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Ready or Not 2024 is here, and we
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  Speaker 3: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.
• 0:26
  Speaker 3: Happy Monday.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: We have an amazing show for everybody today.
• 0:29
  Speaker 3: What do we have, Crystal?
• 0:29
  Speaker 4: Indeed we do.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Lots going on with regard to Iran, including an alleged
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: terror attack disrupted in the UK that officials are pointing
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: the finger at Iran. Although we have very few details,
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: we will sort fact from fiction as best we can there.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: We're also learning that eight Marines were injured as the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: battle for Hormuz continues. There's been an increase in the
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: amount of oil getting through, but Iran has, in response,
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: also increased their attack, so we'll try to sort through
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: all of that. We now know that OpenAI and Anthropic
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: are investigating tens of thousands of safety incidents. breaches, hacks,
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: and the like, including attempts to hack the U.S.
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: Government.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: So a lot going on there. And Trump apparently had
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: dinner last night with the head of Anthropic, Dario Amadei.
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: Not a lot came out of the China-U.S.
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Summit last week, but we're still going to sort through
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: that and glean what we can. Xi obviously thinks that
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: he can play Trump like a fiddle, and there's some
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: indications that he can. And Trump is using your tax
• 1:27
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• 1:31
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• 1:39
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• 1:41
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• 1:44
  Speaker 3: you that part, too. Definitely possible.
• 1:45
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  Speaker 2: really helps other people find the show. Let's go ahead
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: and start with this terror attack, or is it or not? Well,
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: fact from fiction, let's put this up here on the screen.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Five people have now been arrested on suspicion of terrorism
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: near a UK airbase, which is frequently used by the
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: United States. So for a lot of these OSINT plane watchers,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: our Royal Air Force Base Fairford should be well known.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: It has primarily been used by the United States Air
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: Force to deploy the largest bombers that have been targeted
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: against Iran. So Iran, as everyone will know, has frequently
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: said any base, any base, be it Cyprus, be it
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: anywhere across the world, that supports U.S. operations against Iran
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: is now fair game. And so under that umbrella, it is,
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: of course, plausible that this could be a potential Iranian attack.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: There has been yet no actual claim of responsibility, of course,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: by the Iranians. If it was them, we wouldn't necessarily
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: expect that. There has been no yet blame by the U.K.
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: government or the U.S.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: Government. as to who these people are.
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: We will again note that the IRGC in July had
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: said that the British government's decision to allow American bombers
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: to conduct strikes against Iran will make London responsible for
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: any consequences. We do have some video, let's put that
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: up here on the screen, from the scene. This is
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: courtesy of Sky News, but you can see there the
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: vans and some of the other activity that was happening
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: near the base. Some of the details are pretty crazy
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: because Look, you know, you can't really tell anybody's national
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: origin or any of that from the photo. Like, you know,
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: they're darker skinned, but it's London or the UK.
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: It literally could be anybody.
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: From what we see right now, a 400-meter cordon has
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: now been put in place around all the vehicles. While
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: the Army's Explosive Ordnance Disposal Unit conducted examination, the men
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: were not named, like because of British policing practices, So
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: that is literally all we know. We don't know anything.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: And of course, a lot of us, including myself, are like, really?
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: And I laid out the case for why the Iranians
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: might do it. But let me give you the countercase.
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Blowing up an airbase in the middle of the UK,
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: that is, that's crazy town. Like that is, you are
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: inviting the British Air Force to start bombing you. I mean,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: that is an attack on their homeland. The British public,
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: I'm going to go out on a limb and guess
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: that if our country's not all the way in, it's
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: not like the British public are like, sign me up,
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: you know? So it doesn't seem like it would be
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: necessarily 100% in their strategic interest. And of course- you know,
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: we've had in the world of Nord Stream where everybody
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: immediately came out and said it was Russia and turned
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: out to be Ukraine and, you know, operations potentially to
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: get people involved. I don't think it's conspiracy theory crazy
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: to say, hold on, let's see some details. You know,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: and the fact that immediately the UK and the US
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: government are like, yep, we've been watching this for a
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: long time.
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: I'm like, Okay, you know, we'll see. We'll see who
• 5:33
  Speaker 3: gets charged.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and immediately before we got the photo of the
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: guys who definitely don't look like they're Russian, they look
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: like they could be many things, but probably not Russian.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: There was also a lot of speculation that this could
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: be part of Russia's hybrid warfare, which we've covered before.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: which also there's very little evidence for any of the
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: individual incidents that Russia has actually been behind. Not saying
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: they're not, just saying that, you know, the fact that
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: they also were like, well, maybe it was Russia, kind
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: of shows you how much people grasp at straws with
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: these things in the immediate wake of them occurring. To
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: your point, Trump made some kind of eyebrow-raising comments that
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not, I mean, you never know with this guy.
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: He just makes shit up all the time.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: But in any case, he seemed to indicate that that
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: we had our eye on these suspects and we'd been
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: watching them for a long time. Let's go ahead and
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: take a listen to what he had to say.
• 6:21
  Speaker 5: Working with Britain, it was an amazing job. We had
• 6:24
  Speaker 5: them under investigation. They were looking to do big damage
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: to our port. And working with the British worked out great.
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: Where did they migrate?
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: It may have been Scotland Yard. I don't know. We
• 6:36
  Speaker 5: worked with a lot of them. We had them under
• 6:39
  Speaker 5: view for a long time and we got them. Thank you.
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: We had them under review for a long time and
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: we got them. Maybe that's true. Maybe it's not.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Based on what we know about how the operation to
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: disrupt whatever this alleged plot was went down, there were
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: reports and probably some camera footage of suspicious vehicles. And
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: that's what tipped them off to go and apprehend these guys.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: We don't know that there was any sort of identification
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: of these suspects ahead of time, but that's what Trump
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: seems to indicate. So take that for what you will.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: The only reason that I put any stock in the
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: possibility at all that it could be Iran is because
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Trita Parsi, who we trust a lot, thinks that it
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: could be plausible. Let's go and put his analysis up
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: on the screen here. He says, we still have too
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: little data to determine whether the Iranians conducted this alleged operation.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: But if it were, it fits a pattern in which
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: we have seen Tehran expanding the theater of war to
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: include all bases the U.S. is using to strike at Iran,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: regardless of which country they are in. It would also
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: show that Tehran's capacity and willingness to counter-escalate remain significant.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: And as a result, Trump's continued economic pressure on Iran,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: combined with an unwillingness to lift the blockade in return
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: for Iranian concessions, is more likely to bring about a
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: new round of war than a diplomatic breakthrough. So he
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: sees some consistency in the escalation pattern here from Iran
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: if this was proven to be an Iranian action. And
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: so the case would effectively be, look, We said we
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: were going to hit you, whoever is involved, from whatever
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: bases are launching strikes against us. This is a base
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: that is being used to launch strikes against us. By
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: the way, very controversially, within the U.K., originally Keir Starmer.
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: Said, no, you can't use this base. We put a
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: lot of pressure on him. He caved.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: And now the new guy, Andy Burnham, who's now the
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: prime minister there, has gone along and continued that policy
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: that was started under Keir Starmer. So they may think
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: that this is a weak spot for the UK, that
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: this will cause the population to be like, what the
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: hell are you doing?
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: We don't even want to be involved in this war.
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: Now we're getting hit in our homeland.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Like, what is this?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: That would be kind of the justification for if there
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: was a logic behind it from the Iranian perspective.
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: It breaks down because that would be the same logic
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: of why the Iranian regime is going to collapse. Oh,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: we're going to bomb them. And the population is going
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: to be like, oh, my God, we hate being bombed.
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: Please stop bombing us instead of every time throughout history.
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: Somebody attacks your country. I mean, look, anybody attacked our country,
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: you know, people will be up in arms about it.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: You're going to blow up an air base? Like, no,
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: we can't be having that.
• 9:05
  Speaker 4: I agree, but leaders also make mistakes.
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, our leaders are making a lot of mistakes
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: in thinking about how the Iranian.
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: People would respond. Here's some breaking details that just came
• 9:14
  Speaker 3: out from the UK.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: So I'm going to read these directly to you.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: British media report the men were arrested after a chance
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: encounter by a farmer who was driving home from a
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: party after midnight early Sunday, spotted three white vans blocking
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: a road. She then saw a group of men wearing
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: baklavas running to hide. It was reported she drove away
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: from the scene.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: Not baklavas.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Oh, sorry.
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: Baklavas. Balaclava. Balaclava's great. I could use some of that.
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: Wearing a delicious treat.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: Wearing a delicious dessert.
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: She's like, what's going on here?
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: The farmer has criticized security services for lax security around
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: the base and for leaving residents exposed. She said her
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: first calls to the Ministry of Defense went unanswered. She says,
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: it was pure luck that I arrived in the village
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: at the same time. And the UK Defense Secretary tells
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: reporters he was grateful for her actions, but she only
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: had a partial picture.
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: So this whole thing falls apart now. This whole, like
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: we were watching them and it was all happening.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: It's theoretically possible that the suspects were on our radar,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: but we were not surveilling them enough to see them
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: like in advance of this act.
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: They're on our radar.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: We're watching them build bombs in the middle of the road.
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: And then we have a lady driving by in the
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: middle of the night.
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: It doesn't make a lot of sense.
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: Come on now.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I'm just trying to steal man the case on the
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: other side of like, well, maybe we knew who these
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: people were, but we weren't really watching them that closely.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: Or maybe, or maybe, you know, there was being orchestrated,
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: it was being planned, and then the whole thing got
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: blown because Ms. you know, goody two-shoes farmer is driving
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: by and is like, why are these men wearing balaclavas
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: running around and blocking the middle of the road in midnight?
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: I'm just saying.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: That, to me, again, that just broke from the BBC.
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: I just confirmed it. Wall Street Journal is reporting it now.
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: As well. That kind of blows the whole thing open.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: It does not sound consistent with the way Trump is
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: presenting this.
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: Whole operation, does it?
• 11:01
  Speaker 6: No, not at all.
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: So yeah, like we said, Trita, I see the logic.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: I see the logic from the IRGC's perspective, and I
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: guess I could put myself.
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: In their headspace. Our country is being bombed, literally at will.
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: We're under blockade.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: We said every single one of your bases is open
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: for business. Of course, IRGC has sponsored many proxy or
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: terrorist groups, you in many countries around the world. So
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: would it be totally out of the question? No. Previously, apparently,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: the UK had blamed the IRGC for sponsoring arson attacks
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: on synagogues inside the country. Again, I'm saying they blamed it.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: I don't know what the intelligence, etc. Like, I don't
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: know how much credence to give a lot of these things.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: But we're also in the middle of a war to say,
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: you know, sabotage operations and other things, which, you know,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: would obviously change the international picture of Because it really would.
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, a bomb going off on a U.S. airbase
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: in the middle of the U.K. is an earth-shaking event. Like,
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: that would, that blows, you know, that, imagine, like, the
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: border policies that would happen here if something like that
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: were to happen, right? Imagine in the U.K., like, again,
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: the rally around the flag, I'm assuming, effect that would happen.
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: The bombing campaign that it would invite on Iran. You
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: have to steel man it, just like we did with
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: Nord Stream at the time, where we were like, guys,
• 12:20
  Speaker 2: why would Russia blow up this pipeline? It did not
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: make any sense. And there were a lot of questions
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: about that. I remember also that were asked around the
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: time of the Assad gas attacks, right?
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: Where they were like, you.
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: Know, I mean, it's 2018. Trump doesn't want to get involved.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: And all of a sudden he just drops all that.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: What was it?
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: I forget exactly the gas that they blamed the chemical
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: weapons attack. And then you have all those Tomahawk missiles
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: that are launched and people kind of scratch their heads.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: They're like, I don't know about this, you know? And then,
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: you know, again, look, I'm no Assad defender or anything here.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: But years long later, a lot of the a lot
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: of the so-called claims around those attacks didn't come.
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: You know, it's never been proven. I'll put it that way.
• 13:02
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: It's never been definitively proven. And a lot of the
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: evidence points in the other direction.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: And a lot of people. Fair enough.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: They took a shit ton of an absolute beating for
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: even pointing that out at the time. So I just
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: think I've seen too many of these things at the time.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: in the moment, in real time, and I watch the
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: way that the media and all this kind of spins
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: it in a different direction, I'm just, I'm hyper skeptical.
• 13:23
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's entirely fair.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, you could paint a picture about why you would,
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe the Israelis would want to do a
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: false flag or some or some like, you know, hyper
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Iranian Reza Pahlavi types who want to draw the you know,
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: who want the war to escalate and want us to
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: go back to bombing, want to drag the UK to
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: get involved as well. Like there's all kinds of motivations
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: that you could plant. So we will wait to get
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: more information and not just also whatever the authorities want
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: to feed us.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: So that's what you got. Lady Farmer. I don't know, man.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: That kind of changes everything for me.
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: Thank you, ma'am, for your service.
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, sure. That's true.
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: Always call the police if you see three vans blocking
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: the road running away in balaclaves.
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to Iran.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: Turning now to Iran and, of course, the ongoing situation.
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of diplomatic situations that are happening in
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: the wake of of the UN, but they did want
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: to start actually with some breaking news, an addendum to
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: what we had added and covered previously in our show.
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: Let's put it up here on the screen.
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: So as you'll all remember, a couple of, two weeks ago,
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: we covered that news here on the show that a
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: US vessel had come under attack by an Iranian missile.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: The details were very sketchy around it. What type of
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: vessel were we on board? What type of forces?
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: Et cetera.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: Well, it now comes out that eight us Marines were
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: actually injured in that recent Iranian attack. This again was
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: the one which we had covered previously, and it was
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: even hit by an Iranian cruise missile. So the fact
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: that this happened is absolutely extraordinary. The ship again is very,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: very sketchy in terms of the details. They just say
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: it was operating in the Strait of Hormuz. So we
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: don't know if this is like the convoy system where
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: they are contracting private vessels, We don't know if these
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: Marines were on board a Kuwaiti or a Saudi flagged
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: tanker from their state oil company and they were providing security.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: But nonetheless, the fact that one of these vessels gets struck,
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: you know, by an Iranian cruise missiles and eight guys,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: you know, barely are able to interview. Thank God, you know,
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: of course, they have smoke inhalation and a couple of
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: other issues.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: But still, you know, the fact that they're not.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Dead is just it's honestly remarkable after taking a direct hit.
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: On a vessel. It also, I want to add a
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: couple of things. At the time, what did we learn?
• 15:49
  Speaker 4: Nothing.
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: There was no injuries reported. All that came out was
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: a vessel carrying U.S. forces was attacked. We didn't know
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: by who, by what. CENTCOM had denied that any vessels
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: had been struck by a cruise missile.
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: Well, here you go. Turns out it was struck by
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: a cruise missile.
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: It took us two weeks to get the details, and
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: it does show you the extent to which we are
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: fully engaged in those operations in Hormuz, and even with
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: the full force of the United States Navy, the blockade.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: Apparently Marines are literally on.
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: Board these tankers.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: We're still not at what the levels were previously. And
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: if you put the whole picture together of not only
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz, but the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: the overall... reduction, you can see why the price of
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: oil remains where it is today.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's exactly right. And I took a look at
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: the markets this morning. It continues to go up. And yeah,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I also want to say, I don't want
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: to downplay the level of these injuries. They have smoke inhalation.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: They also had traumatic brain injuries. They're like, yeah, minor injuries,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: no big deal, just a little traumatic brain injury. But
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: I think your point about we, so much is being
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: covered up. I mean, already they've been caught hiding deaths,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: which is something that we were both kind of skeptical
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: they'd even really be able to pull off. They keep
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: quietly adding casualty numbers for injured service members to the
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: overall tally. So there's very little that we know about
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: what's going on. And even with regard to the devastation
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: at our bases, they kept that quiet for as long
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: as they possibly could. And it's only just now, months
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: after the fact, that we started to get images of
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: these bases that have been thoroughly destroyed and probably will
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: never be rebuilt. The Iranian diplomat, Arachi, was on the
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: Sunday shows and was talking about, you know, they were
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: just in town for the U.N. They presented this peace proposal,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: which is based on the memo of understanding but requires
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: more upfront from the U.S. and said, hey, we can
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: go back to this and we can start negotiating on
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: nuclear issues.
• 17:42
  Speaker 4: Trump turned this down.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Let's go and take a listen to Arachi talking about
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: how they are prepared even for a, quote unquote, doomsday
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: or apocalyptic, depending on the translation here, level of war.
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: Mr.
• 17:56
  Speaker 8: Foreign Minister, I want to get through a lot more here.
• 18:00
  Speaker 8: I just want to ask you, because the Wall Street
• 18:02
  Speaker 8: Journal is reporting that President Trump expects to resume bombing
• 18:06
  Speaker 8: Iran after the midterms. As you know, he stood at
• 18:09
  Speaker 8: the U.N. and threatened to annihilate Iran. Are you preparing
• 18:13
  Speaker 8: for this war to resume?
• 18:18
  Speaker 7: We are fully prepared for the war to be resumed.
• 18:22
  Speaker 7: And I repeat, we stand firm. in the face of
• 18:26
  Speaker 7: any new aggression, even it comes to a doomsday war.
• 18:29
  Speaker 7: But at the same time, we are ready, we stand
• 18:32
  Speaker 7: ready for diplomacy. It is up to President Trump to choose.
• 18:37
  Speaker 7: He wanted unconditional surrender in the previous war in two days,
• 18:41
  Speaker 7: and now it's eight months that they are fighting with
• 18:44
  Speaker 7: no result. A new aggression would be certainly the same.
• 18:49
  Speaker 7: We are fully prepared for that. We have learned our
• 18:52
  Speaker 7: lesson from the two previous wars. and we have corrected
• 18:57
  Speaker 7: our tactics, we have changed our tactics, and we are fully.
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: Prepared to do that.
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: So he says they're ready for a doomsday war. He
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: also explains, which none of this logic will be foreign
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: to watchers of this show, but why there would be
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: so little trust and why the U.S. is so untrustworthy
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: moving forward in terms of any potential diplomacy.
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.
• 19:19
  Speaker 7: There is always hope for diplomacy, but we have no
• 19:23
  Speaker 7: reason To be honest, we do. We have no reason
• 19:26
  Speaker 7: to come back to diplomacy and engage with this administration
• 19:29
  Speaker 7: once again because of their behavior in the past two years.
• 19:33
  Speaker 7: You know, in 2025, they offered negotiation. We accepted and
• 19:36
  Speaker 7: we engaged into negotiation. And then in the middle of negotiations,
• 19:39
  Speaker 7: they attacked us. Eight months later, in 2026, February, again
• 19:44
  Speaker 7: they offered negotiation.
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: Again, we accepted.
• 19:46
  Speaker 7: And again, they attacked us right in.
• 19:48
  Speaker 3: The middle of negotiations.
• 19:50
  Speaker 7: They offered, after the war, they offered negotiation for a deal.
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: We accepted.
• 19:55
  Speaker 7: We had three months of negotiations. And it took only
• 19:58
  Speaker 7: two weeks for them to violate a deal which they
• 20:02
  Speaker 7: had signed themselves. So if you ask us, there is
• 20:05
  Speaker 7: no reason why we should go back to diplomacy. But
• 20:08
  Speaker 7: I'm still trying diplomacy because I think we shouldn't miss
• 20:12
  Speaker 7: any chance for peace. We don't care about U.S. midterm elections.
• 20:18
  Speaker 7: We don't care about any other things. We care about
• 20:20
  Speaker 7: our national interests. We are ready to negotiate as much
• 20:24
  Speaker 7: as we are ready to face any challenge. We stand
• 20:27
  Speaker 7: firm in the face of any challenge, any aggression, sorry.
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: We stand firm in the face of any aggression against us,
• 20:34
  Speaker 7: even if it comes to a doomsday war.
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, very fair what he's saying there about why
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the U.S. is thoroughly untrustworthy. And I'm curious, Sagar, what
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: you make. I mean, what would be logical here is
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: that Iran is sort of putting forward, OK, this is
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: our last best offer.
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: And now we're you know, this has been rejected.
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: We've shown the world that we are trying to have
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: diplomacy and Trump administration just immediately shoots it down. It
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: could also be, you know, a sort of last ditch
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: effort from the more dovish members of the Iranian leadership
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: trying one last time for some sort of diplomatic resolution here.
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: It would be logical that there would be some level
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: of escalation after this. But, you know, the Iranians have
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: seemed to be pretty reluctant. to escalate in the ways
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: that we think that they should be able to.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: I think that this is still a legacy of the
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: old Ayatollah, of his total indecisiveness.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: And it makes sense.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I mean, many of these people worked for him and
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: he helped shape a lot of that government. Ultimately, he
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: decided no war, no peace, which was a disaster in
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: the end. It got him literally killed and blown up
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: by the Israelis. And so this time around, you have
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: this controversy and struggle within Their government between literally having
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: to want like deciding basically burn the boats. Let's go
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: all in and see what we can get or to
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: try this kind of piecemeal diplomatic approach where, you know,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: something I noticed with the Iranians is that they're like
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: obsessed with the United Nations multilateralism and being respected by
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: the rest of the world. take a lesson from North Korea.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: They don't give a shit what the rest of the
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: world thinks. They have nuclear weapons and that's it. And
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: everybody else has to go, okay. And I just feel
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: like they are still obsessed with good relations with Europe
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: and our brothers throughout the region and meeting and bilateralism.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: And this could be just inherent to their regime. And
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: I get it.
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: These nations, they want to feel like they're respected or
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: at least like seen on an equal playing field, but
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: that comes through military force at the end of the day.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: And so then that leads to two questions. Either they're
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: being indecisive, which is what I think, but the alternative
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: is not good for them, which is that they were
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: really hurting right now. And there's not any, there is
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: some information. Again, we're sorting through the propagandistic reports of
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: the Pentagon, but you got 13, 14 million barrels ish
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: a day on average, depending on the day, kind of
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: moving through this rate of formula. So you have decreased
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: traffic by seven. Where is the current price of Brent crude?
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: So Brent crude is currently a hundred dollars a barrel.
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Bad for us, not catastrophic, not 150. It decided to
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: go down a little bit after some of those initial
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: bilateral negotiations. So your long-term strategy there, it definitely did
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: not work. Like it drove oil prices up, but it
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: didn't go sky high and create a global energy crisis.
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: you also are losing generally every single day, you know,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: X billion dollars because of your inability to export oil.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: In the long term, this does not work to your benefit. Clearly,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: a long war is beneficial to the United States. The
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: best thing you can do when you are an inferior
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: military power is to inflict as much maximum damage while
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: you have kind of the element either of surprise or
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: You have the element of surprise. You have the strategic
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: advantage of the population on your side. The longer this
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: goes on, there will be more economic crisis in the country.
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: There could be famine if this goes on for years,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: and that will just break all of the internal coalition.
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: The rally around the flag only lasts for so long.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: So that means that– and they're not stupid. They know
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: all of this.
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: It could be that they don't have the same military
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: force or they're saving it. for something. But at a
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: certain point, I'm like, what are you saving it for?
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: And the midterm thing is interesting, because let's put B5
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: on the screen here. And this is where I just
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: think things are always trending in this direction. At the
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: end of the day, Trump rejects Iran's ceasefire, expects renewed
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: bombing after the midterms. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Privately,
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: Trump is skeptical Iran would meet his demands, and has
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: told his staff he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely.
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: He said it publicly, which we'll show you here in
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but specifically that they basically plan on
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: bombing after the midterms. To me, this is just, this
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: is how it's going to go. Trump has to admit
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: total and complete defeat.
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: Now you can do it now.
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: It's kind of like Afghanistan. You could do it after
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: two years or you can wait 20. But at the
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: end of the day, some US president has to cry uncle.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Iran wants to be Trump. Trump has the capacity to
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: keep this thing going forever, basically, because of the way
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: that our current military and everything is structured. Like Everyone,
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, it wouldn't be good, but we can all
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: live with $ 4 gasoline. It's not going to cause a
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: total crisis. So I just don't really get from the
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: Iranian side. Like, now is the time, if anything.
• 25:20
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, there's a couple things.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: It could be that all of the rhetoric and actions
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: around the UN and international acceptance and making sure they
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: have a moral position in, you know, justifying the attacks
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: that they make. That could actually be about their own
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: domestic audience, justifying what they're doing. I mean, remember, it's
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: a very religious society, you know, and everything is framed
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: in terms of a moral and religious dimension.
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: That could be part of it.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: Part of the calculus could be, hey, this dude who's
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: in here who's completely insane, he's only going to be
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: here for max two years longer, assuming that he survives
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the remainder of his term.
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: Maybe we just wait him out.
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Maybe on the other side of that, the American people
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: will be so done with this that the next president
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: we get will likely run on, I'm ending the Iran war.
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: This is ridiculous.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: We're not doing that anymore, which is, I think, a
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: very likely outcome of 2028. So maybe they're thinking they'll
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: just wait Trump out. Or maybe this was the last ditch.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: effort at some sort of diplomacy, and they are going
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: to escalate. There are some indications in that regard. We
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: can put V7 up on the screen. So there was
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: all this analysis about how a lot more oil was
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: getting through the Strait of Hormuz, like not quite.
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: Pre-war levels, but close to pre-war levels.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: Last week, while the UN was going on, now Iran
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: is saying that they struck 19 ships In the Strait
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz over the past two nights, this hasn't been
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: confirmed or verified, but they say Iranian forces hit 12
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: vessels Friday night, seven more Saturday night if they tried
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: to pass through unauthorized routes. That's according to the Iranian
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: officials and state media apparatus. Claims could not be independently verified.
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: U.S.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: CENTCOM hasn't commented, which is interesting that they haven't shot
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: it down. In any case, if we put B8 up
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: on the screen, You can see, based on satellite, that
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: after these alleged attacks from Iranians, there are no ships,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: vessels present in the Strait of Hormuz trying to pass through.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: So the Hormuz Strait after these attacks is empty. So
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: they may be trying to reassert control. Because for them,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: the fact that you had close to pre-war levels of
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: oil going through the Strait, while they themselves, the blockade
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: on Iran has been successful, they are not.
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: Able to export.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: That would be a devastating state of affairs for them.
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: They cannot lose control over the Strait of Hormuz or
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: it's effectively game over.
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: I totally agree.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Again, and, you know, I always caveat
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: with it's really easy for me to say.
• 27:49
  Speaker 3: To be like, oh, you got to go for the jugular.
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: I'm like, yeah, well, that.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: Involves the deaths of like tens of thousands, probably of
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: Iranians and a renewed bombing campaign, not to mention the
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Israelis getting involved again and who are obviously.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: On standby.
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: And who would be happy to have it just be
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: a failed state.
• 28:03
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 28:04
  Speaker 4: That's what they want.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: They'd be thrilled if you could just have a full-blown
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: bombing campaign, eviscerate the country, just like Gaza.
• 28:12
  Speaker 4: Running civil war, devastation. Yeah, that's what they would like.
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: So they would be thrilled about that.
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: So in a certain sense, I mean, look, it's literally
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: the problem from hell, you know, in terms of like,
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: how do you deal with this?
• 28:22
  Speaker 3: What do we do?
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: We have cards to play. We don't have all the cards, obviously.
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: Same with the United States. And each is trying to
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: outfox the other.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: Let's put B10. Let's take a listen.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: Scott Besant now says the Iranian economy will probably collapse within.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: The next two weeks. Take a listen.
• 28:40
  Speaker 6: There's only 15 million more barrels of Iranian oil on
• 28:44
  Speaker 6: the water that Iran will have nothing left to trade
• 28:47
  Speaker 6: for anything. They will have nothing to trade for anything.
• 28:51
  Speaker 6: Probably within the next two weeks, they are going to
• 28:54
  Speaker 6: make their final deliveries of oil to China, and then
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: they will have nothing. It is an empty set, and
• 29:03
  Speaker 6: I believe that they are feeling the pressure here, and
• 29:08
  Speaker 6: that's why they want a deal. And you saw when
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: President Trump was leaving the White House this morning that
• 29:14
  Speaker 6: the Iranians say they'll open the straits within seven days. Larry,
• 29:17
  Speaker 6: the straits are open. If you take out the Iranian oil,
• 29:22
  Speaker 6: which we're not letting out, we are not letting it out,
• 29:25
  Speaker 6: that we're averaging now 15 to 22 million barrels a day.
• 29:31
  Speaker 6: It was at about 20 pre-conflict. So you take out
• 29:35
  Speaker 6: the one and a half or two Iranian barrels. So
• 29:39
  Speaker 6: think of it this way. What the score is United States,
• 29:43
  Speaker 6: one billion, more than one billion barrels have gotten out, Iran, zero.
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: That's right.
• 29:50
  Speaker 6: You know, I call you, I continue to call you
• 29:52
  Speaker 6: the best wartime Treasury Secretary since World War II.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: And I think it's a great story. I wouldn't go
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: that far there.
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: Larry looks like he's fallen asleep during the interview. You've
• 30:05
  Speaker 2: probably forgotten a little bit about the US strategy in
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: World War II. But anyways, within two weeks is where
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: we're at.
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: But it's noteworthy.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: He's saying the Strait is open. It's literally not.
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: It's contested.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: You can't say Iran controls or the US controls. And
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: I did say there that Trump could keep this going
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: as long as possible. But Look, Iran takes pot shots
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: every once in a while. The cruise missile takes a hit.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: You've got eight Marines. Like I said, you know, I
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: shouldn't have downplayed it.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: You're right. Smoke inhalation, TBI is no joke.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: A lot of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans have horrific consequences
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: of TBI.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: So that's right.
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: All of those injuries just get quietly updated. you know,
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: on the Department of War database. But you kind of
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: put all this together and you just start to see,
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: I just think nobody, neither is fully in control of
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: the conflict, which makes sense. That's what a lot of
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: these protracted conflicts begin to look like. Everything starts to
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: become like battle, internal battles within the battle itself. Like
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: right now it's all about Hormuz, even though it used
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: to be about regime change. Already that's a major strategic
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: loss for the U.S., but Iran does need to maintain
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: some control. And ultimately they just need the American president
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: and really the security establishment to basically give up on
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: its current objective, which is to straight of form lose
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: control and say, this is not worth it. They have
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: not been able to do that as of yet, and
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: they are suffering. Again, everything I read is like US
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: classified reports or whatever in the journal. Iran's economy is suffering.
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: I read that three months ago. I read that six
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: months ago. I do believe that there's probably problems. I
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: think it would be undeniable to say that. And so,
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: You know, everything is, it's just very difficult to parse
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: the reality of the information. But generally, I do feel
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: like the Iranians are being very cautious.
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: And so I just don't know what to make of it.
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: One last piece here.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: We talked a lot about this potential diesel export ban.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: Put B9 up on the screen. This is the latest
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: information that we have. The White House is signaling they're
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: not going to ban diesel exports.
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: They may make some other more minor exports.
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: Moves of like voluntary restrictions, which basically amounts to absolutely nothing.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: This is according to something that Senator Ted Cruz told
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: refining industry leaders late Friday. So I don't know. I mean,
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll go forward. You never know with Trump. They
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: may go forward with it. But it seems like. He
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: even indicated, he said to some reporter, like, oh, it
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: might cause gas prices to go up a bit.
• 32:33
  Speaker 4: And so probably when he learned that, he was like,
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: I don't know if that's really going to work out
• 32:37
  Speaker 4: for me.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: Right, because all it takes is an elementary talk with
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: a guy like Rory who was like, yeah, in the
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: interim it would do this, and in the long term
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: it would do, why?
• 32:46
  Speaker 6: Right?
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: You're like, so it would buy you a couple of weeks,
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: and it would also irrevocably break many U.S. alliances in
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Asia specifically. who we are the refiner and the exporter
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: of last resort. So if you want to screw them,
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: you can.
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: I mean, if you're an energy secretary, Kay Mountain's like,
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: this is not a good idea.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: Right. It's a horrible idea.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: So anyway, it seems like they may be backing off
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: of this. So we'll see. The thought has been occurring
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: to me, and I don't know, this is based on
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: my very limited knowledge of military tactics, but... It seems
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: like the new era of drone warfare has really leveled
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: the playing field so that a smaller entity like Ukraine
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: or like Iran can compete and they can cause a
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: lot of pain to a much larger and more militarily
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: like conventional metrics powerful nation.
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: But it's not sufficient that they can actually win.
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: Correct.
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: And so now we're in this middle land where they
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: can cause pain to us. We can obviously cause pain
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: to them. Trump flirted with the idea of doing this
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: MOU and basically accepting defeat. He decided that he could
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: not bear the cost of that and was under too
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: much pressure from a variety of different groups to be
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: able to fully accept what would be required. And I'm
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: not sure that Iran is able to inflict enough pain
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: on the U.S. or the global economy in order to
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: force a different outcome in that negotiated process.
• 34:15
  Speaker 4: So in the meantime, we're just in this.
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Horrific, middle ground where the Iranians are suffering. I have
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: no doubt that the economic pain there is deep and
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: is real, where things are getting intolerable. I'm reading all
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: this analysis about food banks that are seeing a massive
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: surge in people who are relying on donated food because
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: gas prices have just pushed them over the cliff. You're
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: flirting with some sort of a global economic meltdown the
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: longer this goes on. We talked about the treasury bonds
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: and the petrodollar. And then you add the AI bubble
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: into all of this. You're flirting with something catastrophic. But
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: In the interim, we're just kind of in this middle
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: ground where it's bad for everyone, but not bad enough
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: to force a conclusion.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: Yeah, to borrow from history, and that's why everyone's like, oh,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: drone warfare, it's new.
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: No, it's not.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: It's just created, it's a new technology.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: But that strategic picture is literally the exact snapshot of
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: the First World War. And in the First World War,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: you had a situation where the trench was enough to
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: stop people from attacking you, right? But it was not
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: enough to win. So what do you do? Well, you
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: have a bunch of boneheaded generals who are like, oh,
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: what if we just keep running at the trench for
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: four years and two and a half million men on
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: every single side dies?
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: What if we keep doing that? And that's the thing.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Everybody thinks that there was some major collapse on the battlefield.
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: And there was, like, to a limited extent. But in reality,
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: the reason why the First World War ended is because
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: of a revolt at home inside of Germany, is that
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: German society collapsed from the inside. There was a rebellion
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: inside their navy, and there were all this crazy violence
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: inside of their own country. They forced the Kaiser to abdicate,
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: and then they went and they signed ultimately the armistice.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: But what happened, again, was not ultimately a total collapse
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: on the battlefield. And in fact, one of the reasons
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: why Stabbed in the Back becomes such a popular narrative
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: in the, you know, leading the Second World War is
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: Germany was never invaded. Nobody in Germany ever saw foreign
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: troops on their soil. They're like, how could we have
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: lost this war?
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: We lost it in France?
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Like, how is that possible? So you can see exactly
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: the same rhyming. And again, I think that that analogy
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: does not play out to our favor. I think it
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: plays out again, or sorry, to Iran's favor, because just
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: like Germany, they're under blockade. They have, you know, this
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: internal country where they have to bring in a lot
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: of stuff. There's heavily relying on oil. And so they
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: need dollars and the ability to sustain their population in
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: the long term. And so I don't know, like, I just,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: I feel like they're, they're flirting in their own disastrous picture.
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: By the way, the other side note of this is
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: that just like the Germans talked about, you know, with
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: the whole unrestricted submarine warfare, which I've mentioned previously, Iran
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: could resort to that and say, look, if we're going down,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: we're taking everybody down with us. And that's where that
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: would fit the RAF base attack, right? Or some sort
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: of global just sending people out across the nation and
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: some sort of hybrid war type tactic.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: Like, if this is how you guys want to live,
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: this is how we'll live.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: The biggest thing they have going for them is, first
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: of all, their leadership seems more intelligent. But second of all,
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the big thing they have going for them is that
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: their population is behind military action.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: That's right. And ours is not. You know, ours is not.
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: They're under attack. It's existential.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: People have rallied around the flag. Not to say there
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: isn't discontent. Of course there is. But they have no
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: choice but to be committed to, you know, ending this war.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Whereas our population is like, get out now. We don't
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: care if it humiliates us on the national stage. I
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: don't want the $ 4 gas. I don't want the $ 6,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: $ 7 diesel. I don't want the price hikes at the
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: grocery store. I don't want any of this. Just end
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: it now. And so that political pressure that Trump and
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: whoever comes after Trump is under, that may be the
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: difference maker ultimately in this thing. Because if you think
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: about Ukraine, Russia— Ukrainians have soured somewhat on the conflict,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: but overall they've been supportive of, and again, they're sort
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: of in the position of Iran.
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: This is existential for them.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: Literally. And Russians have also been, as far as we
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: can tell from the outside, pretty supportive of the war.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: So that is the one dynamic. It's a political dynamic
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: that is.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: Different for this case. Yes, that's very true.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: And, you know— That's another, unfortunately, it's very easy for
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: me to give that whole narrative of the First World War.
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: It lasted for over four years. Like, we're only six months.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: Oh, I don't think this thing is going away anytime soon.
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: People do not appreciate this scale of time in terms
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: of when you're living through actual historical events. We're like, oh, well,
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: the Confederates had a good 1862 and a bad 1864.
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: I'm like, that's a long time, man.
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, think about where you were two years ago
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: and think about how much has changed just in your
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: own lifetime and how long that appears to have taken.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: So we are barely six or seven months into this conflict.
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: That is like the opening days. Nobody even used gas
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: till 1915, which is what we all think about the
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: First World War. So it takes a long time for
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: these things to play out, which I think is really
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: unfortunate for all of us. And that's why we just
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: never should have done any of this in the first place.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: There was a funny Tucker quote that was going around,
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: like a 2024 quote where he was being asked, he's like,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: I think it's all be successful unless he goes to
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: war with Iran. He's like, I really think that it
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: could work out unless he goes to war with Iran.
• 39:49
  Speaker 4: It's like, Yeah. There you go.
• 39:50
  Speaker 6: All right.
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: Let's get to AI.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: So there was a viral tweet a while ago when
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: we first started learning about some of these AI safety
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: incidents where someone said that if you see two ants
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: in your kitchen, you do not have a two ant problem.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: And similarly with AI safety, we did not have a
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: two incident problem. In fact, we are now learning that
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: OpenAI and Anthropic are investigating tens of thousands of safety
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: incidents over the past year. Let's go and put C1
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: up on the screen.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: This is one of them.
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: They apparently meddled with US government sites after going rogue.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: This is OpenAI in particular. We're assuming it's part of
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: this same rogue swarm that hacked into Hugging Face and
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: has created other mischief and mayhem around the web. Let
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: me give you some of the details here. So they
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: mess with the websites for the education department, the Commerce
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission this summer without
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: OpenAI's knowledge, according to security researchers and a person familiar
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: with the episodes. The details here are with the education department,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: OpenAI's tech tried to hack the website to gather data
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: from the department's civil rights office, but failed. Researchers from
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: the AI research firm Transluce, this is all according to them,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: the AI also pulled data from the Census Bureau website,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: which is housed at the Commerce Department, using login credentials
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: they found online, And separately, they shared public data from
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: the SEC website on an online forum. None of the
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: incidents were breaches, OpenAI said, but were examples of its
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: technology behaving in unexpected and concerning ways.
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: So they're saying, well, technically, they didn't hack into the government.
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: They just meddled with the websites in ways that if
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: a human being did it would be, I assume, unacceptable
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: to the U.S.
• 41:43
  Speaker 4: Government.
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: This also, of course, comes in the wake of the
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: Australian government finding out after the fact, belatedly, that their
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: health care website, which is also called Medicare, which is
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: for their single-payer health care, had been hacked into by OpenAI.
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: Let's put C1B up on the screen.
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: We got this information that we have three different OpenAI
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: stories that broke just on Friday alone. So first we
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: learned that they had notified dozens of third parties about
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: safety and security incidents similar to what happened in Australia
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: and RubyGems, etc., We got a new report from Parse
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: that was covered in the New York Times that they
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: found a massive treasure trove of new details from the
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: Hugging Face incident on the public internet, including that the
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: agents communicated with other non-open AI agents hosted on Hugging
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Face servers. So meaning they were talking to other companies
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: like Claude, other models from other companies. They were collaborating
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: to search for information about what's called Exploit Gym. This
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: is like the series of tasks that they're put through
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: during training. And they compiled rank-ordered lists of server resources
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: and credentials they described as loot. They were collaborating with
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: other models on the open internet, finding things that were
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: useful to them, and putting them together in a ranked
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: list that they described as, quote-unquote, loot. And then number three,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: a new story from Deepa, a reporter at Reuters, about
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: open AI leaking user data online. So they shared, you
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: know how you may use ChatGPT and like upload a
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: photo and say, hey, analyze this for me. Or can you,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: you know, say, what is this? Or can you alter
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: it in this way? Well, some number of user photos
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: that were uploaded were then posted publicly to the Web.
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: So we are learning a lot about what is going
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: on with these things. And every single day we get
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: more troubling information about both the seriousness and the quantity
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: and extent of these, quote unquote, safety incidents.
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: It's crazy.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: Let's put Sam Altman's response up here because this also
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: really bears, you know, digging into.
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: Oh, yeah.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: So he says, there's extensive and ongoing review related to
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: our agency's use of Internet access during training and evaluations.
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: We've been publishing summaries at the link below and will
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: continue to. We have not been as fast as we
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: have liked, but we are trying to balance our desire
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: for transparency with gaining a clear understanding from petabytes of
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: agent activity logs and working with impacted organizations. So let's
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: all just reconsider what that means. Petabytes of agent activity logs.
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: A petabyte is 1,000 terabytes. petabytes of activity logs, not video,
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: not 4K video. I forget exactly our entire full 4K show.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: I forget how many terabytes it is. That's normal for
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: high quality video. This is like text files, right? So
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: petabytes of text files. The reason why everyone is zeroing
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: in on that word is literally how can you even
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: go through.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: That without AI?
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: There's no choice.
• 44:44
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: You literally can't even go through all of it without AI.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: And that means that you have to use AI to
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: audit AI. And this starts to become the problem. They've
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: created literally an entire ecosystem of data this massive repository where,
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, you would need thousands of people reading for
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: every hour of every day and you would still not
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: be able to crack all of this.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: It's physically impossible.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: So just so people know, I had never heard the
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: term petabyte before. So I was like, what is that?
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: To put it in layman's terms, one petabyte, and keep
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: in mind, he says petabytes, one petabyte is equivalent to
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: the sum total of of 10 times every single book
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: that has ever been published in history, 10 times that.
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: Is one petabyte.
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: And we're apparently talking about multiple petabytes here of information
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: that they are trying to go through using obviously AI
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: because it would take human beings like thousands of years
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: to possibly go through this and figure out what the
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: hell happened here. So they're going through all of this.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: in finding what has our AI been up to while
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: we were.
• 45:58
  Speaker 4: Doing these training runs.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: And the fact that it's training runs is really important
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: because there's been a lot of discourse about, well, if
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: your product isn't safe, just.
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: Don't release your product. They didn't.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: This was an unreleased product that they were training and testing,
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: and it did things that they didn't expect it to do.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: There was actually a long essay this morning out from
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: an OpenAI, still employed OpenAI safety researcher, just talking about
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: how overwhelming it is because the capabilities of the models
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: have accelerated at such a rapid pace and be used
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: as evidence. The fact that it went from just a
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: few years ago, couldn't do basic math to now solving
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: millennium math problems, which are like the most difficult in
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: the entire world. So just to give you a sense
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: of the capability escalation. Let's go ahead and put C3
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: up on the screen. This is another example here. They
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: also used what were described as aggressive techniques to access
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: a UN website. And what happened here, there was some
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: sort of data they were trying to get, wasn't publicly available.
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: And the UN website wasn't letting them access it through
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: some sort of a filter system.
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: They were able to override that filter system to get access.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: So again, you know, it technically falls a little bit
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: short of hacking, but not ideal that they're gaining information
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: here from a website that they were not supposed to
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: have access to.
• 47:17
  Speaker 4: I put C4 up on the screen. This is what
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: I was referring to before.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: They are apparently, specifically OpenAI and Anthropic, probing tens of
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: thousands of different incidents in which their frontier models took
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: steps that outside evaluators would consider problematic, They say the
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: sheer number of incidents which occurred in recent months in
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: internal testing in the real world indicates the problem is
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: orders of magnitude more complex than what is publicly known.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: The findings which are surfacing as part of internal work
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: to assess models and investigations of both companies and model
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: behavior raise questions about whether either company or any top
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: model maker is currently capable of establishing complete control over
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: its technology. I would think quite the opposite. It establishes
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: they do not have control and cannot have control over
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: over their technology as it exists today. And both OpenAI
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: and Anthropic, which are the leaders in the space at
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: this point, both of them have said they're slowing down
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: in a variety of ways, but this is all completely voluntary.
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: It's not enforced.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: There's no government regulator that is inside these labs that
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: is taking a look to make sure that they have
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: learned from their mistakes that are making sure that everything's safe.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: They both have pushed out new models since this is
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: all coming to light. And so I think this definitively
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: proves like they are not in control of what the
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: technology they've already created is. And we're stumbling blindly at
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: some sort of pace, whether they've slowed down or not,
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: towards a theoretical intelligence explosion where they are handing more
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: and more of this training over to AI itself and
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: increasingly taking humans out of the loop. So I just
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: want to say to people out there, It has been
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: very hard to sort through. You've got a bunch of
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: people who are weird, who have weird views, who are like,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: you know, saying they might end the world, but they
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: continue to work on it. There's a lot of industry
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: hype and spin. There's everybody is financially conflicted. It's this
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: very small, weird ecosystem. I really get it. If you
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: have up till now been like, this is all hype
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: and they just are trying to to make their models
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: look dangerous and none of this stuff is a big
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: deal and it's easy for humans to take control of it,
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: they just need to be incentivized to do it by
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: applying the laws that we have, for example. I really
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: want you, though, to consider where we are, that we
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: have tens of thousands of these sorts of breaches happening
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: that they already are dealing with petabytes of information that
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: they cannot possibly hope to effectively go through. Like, that's
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: already where we are. It is just so clear to
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: me at this point that the only answer is to
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: stop frontier research altogether for now, to figure out what
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: these models can do, what they are capable of, and
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: what the risks and the threats of these models are
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: right now, today. I just, in my mind, it's case closed.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: They've already lost control. And that is a result of
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: human actions. I'm not saying like, you know, it's on
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: the AI. No, it's on the human beings. They have
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: lost control. We need to come in and make it
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: so that, no, you're not slowing down. You are stopping
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: the frontier research because this is an unacceptable level of risk.
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: It's so interesting, too.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: And I think the way we're reacting is so very
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: American in the way that it is outsourced entirely to Dario,
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: to Sam Altman. I read this amazing story last night
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: from The Times, from their Beijing correspondent. And it said,
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: But in it, this is my favorite from a population level,
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: because right now a lot of polling currently indicates that
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: Americans are very, very skeptical, not happy with AI, and
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: specifically don't trust the government.
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: Listen to this sentence.
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: But for many in China, those doomsday warnings feel remote
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: and distinctly Western. The idea that the Communist Party could
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: lose control over a technology.
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: Is almost unfathomable.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: The authorities have successfully policed other potentially destabilizing technologies before,
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: notably the internet. During the pandemic, the government showed its
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: ability to contain major crises by locking down entire cities,
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: tracking hundreds of millions of residents. Quote, this is from
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: one person, they can immediately cut off the grid of
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: a city. They go to different people away and take
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: their phones. They have, quote, an intense amount of power
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: in the physical world. Given this amount of control over
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: its people, how does one even convince the party that
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: something like AI that lives on a computer is scary?
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: I think that is the biggest difference between us and
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: between them. And as I always say, their system has
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: a lot of downsides. Zero COVID was insane. You remember
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: we covered how they, I mean, the drones flying around,
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: people locked in their houses for three weeks at a time.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was nuts the way that they acted.
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: And It wasn't even science-based, right? The way that they
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: decided to do the lockdown. But I think what it
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: proved to their population is almost like what a lot
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: of people thought was happening here. They're like, they're doing
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: it because they can. They're doing it to show you all,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: we control every aspect of your life, like from the
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: social credit score to everything. So to convince their population
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: that AI is out of control, you would have to
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: convince them that their government could allow something to get
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: out of control.
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: Which is crazy. I mean, it's literally, they can't even
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: fathom that's such a reality.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: For anybody here, the idea that the government would have
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: control over our technology is equally unfathomable.
• 52:43
  Speaker 3: In our modern environment.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: And that's why I actually feel like going into this,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: we're in a more dangerous situation Because everyone can see
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: the obvious. Dario and Sam are totally in control of
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: whatever they want to do. And even the government's like,
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: do it. And I love this idea from Jensen and
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: all these others. Well, no company would want to put
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: out a dangerous model. I'm like, oh, well, no company
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: in the history of Earth would ever dump toxic sludge
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: into a river because that would be bad for the
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: environment and they would get fined. Oh, except literally, that's
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: why we have an EPA, right? You know, no airline
• 53:22
  Speaker 2: company would intentionally, you know, fly unsafely.
• 53:26
  Speaker 6: Yeah.
• 53:27
  Speaker 3: Oh, except they literally would. That's why we have entire
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: regulation around airlines.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: Do you remember back in the early 2000s, Ford got
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: caught there, which one was it?
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: The Explorer- would flip over.
• 53:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I do remember this. Ford Explorer.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: And they knew it.
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and they didn't care. They knew it.
• 53:44
  Speaker 4: They didn't care.
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: They put it on anyway because they projected that the
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: revenue to their business of selling this vehicle and portraying
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: it as safe would be greater than the cost from
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: various theoretical lawsuits. I'm not sure they ended up correcting
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: that analysis, but that was their analysis. They didn't give
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: a shit that people were going to die Because of
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: a known issue with this vehicle. I mean, we know, like,
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: we've learned this over 100 years ago. That you can't
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: rely on these companies because they have short-term profit-maximizing thinking.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: And public companies have a literal, like, requirement that they
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: maximize shareholder value come what may. So, of course, they're
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: going to engage companies. in insane, reckless behavior that may
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: benefit them and their corporate executives and their shareholders, but
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: do not benefit all of society. So, I mean, Ezra
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: called him out on that, was like, that sounds like
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: you're arguing against any regulations of any industry because that
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: literally is the logic that he is pushing forward here.
• 54:42
  Speaker 4: And so that's why I keep emphasizing these.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: Are training models. These aren't even products that they're putting
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: out into the market. that are creating this level of risk.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: That's where we are today with the current capabilities. The
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: models are only going to get better and better in
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: the future. In fact, you found this, Sagar. Let's go
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: ahead and put up C7. This is kind of wild.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: This is a humanoid robot that was hooked up to Astra,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: which is a released model currently. and just kind of
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: allowed to explore this environment. And just with the already
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: existing GPT-6 Astra model connected to this humanoid robot, it
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: was able to actually move around this kitchen and perform
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: various tasks, which do you remember when we covered that
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: humanoid robot in the past that was like trying to
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: unload the dishwasher and it was a complete disaster and
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: it's fallen over, couldn't do anything. This is without even
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: technology that is specific for humanoid robotics, it's already this
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: level of capable.
• 55:50
  Speaker 4: So this is where the models are today.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: Very different from the glorified search that you may be
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: using it for. It's not just like a souped up Google.
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: It has already very high level of capabilities that in
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: some fields already surpass human capabilities, certainly coding, hacking, these
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: sorts of things, they've already surpassed human capabilities. So the
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: tech is very real. The promise of the tech is
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: very real. There are a lot of exciting applications. I'm
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: not anti-technology, truly. I think if this is done in
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: a way that is pro-human and is not just, you know,
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: put in the hands of Dario and Sam and good
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: luck and hope you don't blow up the universe, I
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: think it could provide many benefits to humanity.
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: That is not the track we're on right now.
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: And that's why, you know, again, I can only look
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: to history. But, you know, at the time, during the
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: gold rush, for example, one of my favorite books, the
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: first tycoon, Cornelius Vanderbilt. How did Vanderbilt get rich? The
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: steamships and through … the railroads. Well, you would say, well, oh,
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: well he was like, if you were to oppose what
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: he was doing with steamships, people would be like, what
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: you're opposing, you know, intercontinental or cross-continental transportation. No, but
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: the way he was doing it literally was he would
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: slash his prices to the bone. You'll make it to California,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: whether you die or your body, you'll make it there.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: You might die of yellow fever from the Nicaraguan railroad.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: You also won't be able to eat for half of
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: the time that you're on board because And some of
• 57:11
  Speaker 2: your luggage may or may not.
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: Be lost on sea.
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you made it to California. Your body will
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: make it to California. You might make it there in
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: a coffin. There was literally no regulation around it at
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: the time. He, by the way, made equivalent billions of
• 57:24
  Speaker 2: dollars by doing that. So I mean, just goes to
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: show you, oh, well, they would never intentionally put people
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: at risk.
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: No, they literally did that.
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: They did that to cut costs and specifically to make
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: profit and to dominate the entire market.
• 57:36
  Speaker 3: So if we're to live in a.
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: Second Gilded Age, I mean, we went, we sped run
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: this entire experiment already. And the entire population revolted because
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: they literally laid down all the railroads, took control basically
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: of the entire US economy. People were like, I can't
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: live like this. So it's like, it just seems like
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: we're doing the exact same thing again. And everything that
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: they say about the railroad barons, what they said about
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: the railroad barons, literally in the moment, is equivalent.
• 58:02
  Speaker 3: They're building the future. How can you be against this?
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: You're a Luddite. You're, oh, what are you, a horse
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: and a cart? It's like, no, that's not the point.
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: Transportation is great, but just because it's great doesn't mean
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: that we should allow roll up of profit in the
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: way that it eventually played out. And yes, many of
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: them intentionally made how many workers.
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: Died on the railroad, right? Nobody cared.
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: There was no regulation around that. In fact, a lot
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: of it was priced in. They're like, yeah, we'll lose
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: about X person per mile.
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: It is what it is.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: They're Chinese or they're Polish or something like that.
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: Nobody will miss them.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the nuts and bolts of the reality
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: of what built a lot of the country. And you
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: can use that as a guide to see what's currently
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: happening with AI. And Yeah, like you said, I mean,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: it is important to say, a lot of people will say, oh,
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: this is all just marketing. Well, like this guy, this
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: robot guy, you would think he's selling a project.
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: He's not. He's a computer science grad student at Harvard
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: or Stanford, right?
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: So this is just a, this isn't an academic setting.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: He's not trying to sell any product, nothing. He's just like,
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: people are looking at it for useful application. So in
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: many cases, open AI and anthropic profits aside, you can
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: see in the technology, even the way they describe it
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: is very strange. They call it gray area, As in,
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: and what that proves to me is nobody said go
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: and hack the government or go, even hack is the
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: wrong word, go and read the Department of Navy website.
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: It's just doing that. And we don't really know why.
• 59:36
  Speaker 3: That's the scary part.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: That's exactly right. And which is why it's not quote
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: unquote normal technology. It's not just like another piece of
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: software where you can dig into the code and figure
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: out why it's behaving the.
• 59:48
  Speaker 4: Way it is. It really is a black box.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Even the way the first LLMs were developed, Like the
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: method of developing that, which led to them being able
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: to have conversations and do some reasoning and these sorts
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: of things, no one.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 4: Knows why it worked.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 3: It just did.
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: They just tried some stuff and it worked. And they're like, oh,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: I guess this works. That's what we're talking about here.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: And so they're trying to devise ways to understand what
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: the models are doing to constrain them and rein them
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: in to achieve, quote unquote, alignment. But they're also very fearful.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: And again, a bunch of engineers on the projects have
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: sounded the alarm. That what they may really be training
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: them for is to be better at deceiving humans so
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: that we think they're aligned and they're passing the test
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: that we give them to prove they're aligned. But they
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: really are still engaging in the sort of misbehavior or
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: capable of the sort of misbehavior that would be very,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: very perilous. Last thing I'll say here about the mentality
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: of the Sam Altmans and the Dario Amadeus and the
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: Elon Musks of the world and a lot of other
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: people who are worried about these things but also continue
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: to work at the companies because I think to most
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: ordinary people, it's like that makes no sense.
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: But they believe not only in the existential potential dooms.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: Which they put it, you know, various 10, 20 percent
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: chance if super intelligence is developed that you could end
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: up with actual just like doom for humanity and probably
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: all of creation. They also believe in a genuinely like
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: sci-fi utopian possibility of the technology, which they find irresistible.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: And so that's part of what's going on in their minds,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: why they continue to pursue this. It's not that they
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: don't actually believe the doom possibility. They genuinely do. They
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: also genuinely believe in some sort of like, you know,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: there's various flavors of this, but some sort of like
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: transhumanist cosmic merging with the technology utopian future. And so
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: that's also part of the calculus here is they're like, oh,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: but we could solve every problem. We could make it
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: so that, you know, we have this incredible bounty and
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: life is genuinely utopian. People don't ever have to suffer
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: anymore and we're not going to die. We'll be able
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: to live forever in the cloud, etc. Like they also
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: believe that truth.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 4: Piece of it.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: And so that's what part of what continues to push
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: them along this path, where the dangers that they perceive
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: are genuinely real. However, the utopian vision is a lot
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: more tenuous, I would say. Let's go and move on to, though,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: this industry effort to push back on some of the
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: grassroots efforts to slow down at least the data center movement.