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Reasons for economic optimism in 2026 · The Financial Exchange Show

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Speaker 2: Chuck Mark Tucker with you here and as we are
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Speaker 2: winding down the final days of twenty twenty five markets
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Speaker 2: for the very modest pullback today, the SMP is off
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Speaker 2: twenty nine points about point four percent. The Dow was
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Speaker 2: off two hundred and seventeen points about point four percent.
1:28
Speaker 2: Nas deak can pauses off one hundred and fifty five
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Speaker 2: points about three quarters I'm sorry, two thirds of a percent.
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Speaker 2: So again, you've got a little bit of a modest
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Speaker 2: downward move here, but nothing huge, especially in the context
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Speaker 2: of the fact that O G. I don't know, like
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Speaker 2: we were at all time highs last week, So you know,
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Speaker 2: let's not get too excited about this tenure. US Treasury
1:47
Speaker 2: down one basis point to four point one two four percent,
1:51
Speaker 2: the Dollar Index up point zero three percent to ninety
1:55
Speaker 2: seven seven to two five gold here's where you got
1:58
Speaker 2: some excitement today. Precious medals are I think the technical
2:02
Speaker 2: word is imploding this after going parabolic up last week.
2:07
Speaker 2: A good friend of mine who used to work in
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Speaker 2: the trading business, one said to me, things that go
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Speaker 2: parabolic up seldom correct by going sideways. That's kind of
2:19
Speaker 2: what we're seeing here in precious metals just going down
2:22
Speaker 2: the list. Gold's down four point six percent, silver's down
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Speaker 2: eight percent, palladiums down sixteen percent, platinums down twelve. So yeah,
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Speaker 2: like that, that whole bucket is just getting you know,
2:33
Speaker 2: bopped on the head repeatedly right now, and it's just
2:36
Speaker 2: kind of not great there. Crude oil West Text Intermediate
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Speaker 2: up a dollar forty eight a barrel to fifty eight
2:42
Speaker 2: to twenty two triple A national average for gas prices
2:44
Speaker 2: continuing to slide though good news on that front, down
2:47
Speaker 2: another three tenths of ascent to two eighty two and
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Speaker 2: five tenths. So after spending all year just like bumping
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Speaker 2: between like three oh five and three twenty a gallon,
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Speaker 2: we've had some real movement down in the last couple
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Speaker 2: of weeks as refinery outages have eased in the Midwest,
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Speaker 2: and so you're at two eighty two and five tenths
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Speaker 2: of ascent at the moment on the trip A national
3:09
Speaker 2: average four gas prices. A year ago, we were three
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Speaker 2: to zero two and half a cent, and so you're down,
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Speaker 2: you know, about six six and a half percent on
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Speaker 2: gas prices relative to this time last year. It's always
3:21
Speaker 2: fun I filled up yesterday. I was like, I was
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Speaker 2: a little giddy. I was like, ooh, like that that
3:24
Speaker 2: was nice. I got in and out of here and
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Speaker 2: under you know, forty uh, I think forty two dollars.
3:29
Speaker 2: My man, this is this is kind of fun, you know,
3:32
Speaker 2: not as fun as paying nothing for gas, but uh, hey,
3:35
Speaker 2: you'll take what you can get. Peace in the bloomy
3:39
Speaker 2: Berg today. Five reasons to be optimistic about the twenty
3:43
Speaker 2: twenty six economy. So let's talk about what the reasons
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Speaker 2: are that are outlined in here first, and I think
3:51
Speaker 2: that these are ones that we've talked about generally. Uh,
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Speaker 2: Consumers going to have more money this in the form
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Speaker 2: of larger tax rebates that are expected kicking off in
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Speaker 2: you know, February through May foremost filers. So that is
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Speaker 2: something that is again not in the works, but going
4:11
Speaker 2: to happen based on the tax code changes that were
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Speaker 2: made earlier this year. So I think that is you
4:17
Speaker 2: know a big piece. Businesses also going to have more
4:20
Speaker 2: money to spend through some additional depreciation that they can
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Speaker 2: go through and that'll you know, hopefully boost capex as
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Speaker 2: we get into next year. The other ones in here
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Speaker 2: I think are not ones that I would classify as
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Speaker 2: certain by any means. The first one here, interest rates
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Speaker 2: will be lower. I don't know how you can say
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Speaker 2: that with any kind of confidence. The Fed may decide
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Speaker 2: to move short term interest rates lower. There is no
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Speaker 2: guarantee that moves longer term interest rates lower, as we've
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Speaker 2: seen the last two years. By the way, the FED
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Speaker 2: is embarked in cutting cycles each of the last two falls,
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Speaker 2: and you have not seen long term rates move down.
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Speaker 2: So I don't think those facts are in evidence. Next one,
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Speaker 2: energy could be cheaper, well, couldn't. I mean it could be.
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Speaker 2: It was this year, and like that's a big boost
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Speaker 2: for all of us who don't work in the oil industry.
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Speaker 2: But I don't know if energy is going to be
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Speaker 2: cheaper next year, do you. I do not. No, So
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Speaker 2: like it's it's a maybe, But I don't know how
5:28
Speaker 2: you can say that one definitively. And there will be
5:31
Speaker 2: more certainty on tariffs maybe, But again I don't know
5:36
Speaker 2: how you can say that definitively, given how the tariffs
5:39
Speaker 2: have evolved over the entirety of the course of this
5:41
Speaker 2: calendar year.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, all these facts could be true. There
5:45
Speaker 3: are facts, all of these two of them are yeah, Okay,
5:49
Speaker 3: all these things could be true. The economy could still
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Speaker 3: dip into recession. You just don't know. At the safest bet,
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Speaker 3: Like with respect to stocks that we talked about in
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Speaker 3: the last hour, most of the time the economy grew,
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Speaker 3: and it's not a coincidence that most of the time.
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Speaker 3: When I say most of the time, I mean most
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Speaker 3: calendar years, not coincidentally. Stocks go up most of the
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Speaker 3: time because they're tied to economic growth. So safe bet
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Speaker 3: would be, yeah, the economy is going to grow at about
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Speaker 3: its trend rate next year.
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Speaker 2: If you want to look for other areas where you
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Speaker 2: can be optimistic, like are the things that again may happen,
6:17
Speaker 2: but are are not certain to the two that I
6:20
Speaker 2: would look at are housing and the labor market. Housing,
6:24
Speaker 2: what do you want to see? You want to see
6:28
Speaker 2: a higher volume of transactions happening, because even if you
6:32
Speaker 2: are seeing builders being pressured by lower pricing throughout the
6:36
Speaker 2: southern and western part of the country, transaction volume can
6:40
Speaker 2: help degenerate more activity even in the absence of constructions.
6:43
Speaker 2: Not quite the same. Again, there's a lot more activity
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Speaker 2: that happens building a four hundred thousand dollars house than
6:49
Speaker 2: selling one. But even when you sell a four hundred
6:51
Speaker 2: thousand dollars house, think of what happens in terms of
6:53
Speaker 2: the equity that's unlocked there, assuming that you pay regular
6:56
Speaker 2: broker commissions, you know, call it five percent, twenty thousand
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Speaker 2: dollars of that equity goes out to the brokers to
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Speaker 2: go and spend in their local communities. Then you might
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Speaker 2: be hiring movers. Maybe that costs, you know, whether it's
7:09
Speaker 2: you know, small movement's you know, eight hundred bucks, whether
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Speaker 2: it's a big move and it's five thousand bucks. Hey,
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Speaker 2: that's money that's going out to support, you know, businesses
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Speaker 2: in the local community. You might be doing remodeling. That
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Speaker 2: helps contractors that aren't building new homes, but they can
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Speaker 2: still you know, do the remodeling work. You might be
7:26
Speaker 2: doing landscaping, You might be buying new furniture, all that stuff.
7:29
Speaker 2: So higher volumes can make up for some of the
7:33
Speaker 2: dip in activity related to construction. And so I think
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Speaker 2: that's somewhere that you can potentially be optimistic because higher inventories,
7:41
Speaker 2: which we have now relative to a year ago, tend
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Speaker 2: to lead to hire transaction volumes. Inventory leads sales other things.
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Speaker 2: Consumer spending has not fallen off a cliff. In fact,
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Speaker 2: it's been remarkably consistent this year, generally running about four
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Speaker 2: to six percent growth year over year. The labor market
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Speaker 2: doesn't fall apart unless demand does, and so as long
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Speaker 2: as consumers keep spending four to six percent more than
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Speaker 2: the prior year, it makes it harder for that labor
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Speaker 2: market to fall off a cliff. That's optimistic, right, like
8:14
Speaker 2: taking the bad things off the table is optimistic? Am
8:18
Speaker 2: I wrong?
8:19
Speaker 1: No?
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Speaker 3: I think again. A safe assumption is that the economy
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Speaker 3: will do next year more or less what it did
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Speaker 3: this year. Big discontinuities going from reasonably strong growth, which
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Speaker 3: we've had the past couple of quarters, to negative growth
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Speaker 3: those absent big shocks, which are of course unpredictable, so
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Speaker 3: that's not a very helpful qualifier. Absent big shocks, the
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Speaker 3: economy tends to continue to do what it's been doing.
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Speaker 3: A good predictor of next quarters, say GDP growth, which
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Speaker 3: is the most widely cited measure of this state of
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Speaker 3: the economy. Best predictor is the past quarters growth. You
8:54
Speaker 3: could put the term spread in there and maybe improve
8:56
Speaker 3: your model a little bit. If you're into that type
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Speaker 3: of thing, but for most of us us just look
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Speaker 3: at what the economy has been doing. Assume it'll continue
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Speaker 3: to do that unless something hits it and throws it
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Speaker 3: off track. That's not a very helpful guideline, but it
9:11
Speaker 3: is a reasonably good forecasting rule.
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Speaker 2: Here's to Wall Street journal Michael Burry bets that he
12:01
Speaker 2: isn't too early to go against the AI juggernaut. Should
12:06
Speaker 2: other humans care? Look here, here's the thing, Burry. Smart
12:11
Speaker 2: dude made more money in a single year than Olliver
12:14
Speaker 2: making my lifetime at one point. Uh. I just I
12:18
Speaker 2: don't know why we have to document his every move.
12:23
Speaker 2: It's not like he's always right. Uh, It's not like
12:28
Speaker 2: he is, you know, consistently someone who accurately predicts market movements.
12:33
Speaker 2: He had one monster bet that paid out in his favor,
12:38
Speaker 2: by the way, after like three or four years leading
12:41
Speaker 2: up to that, where his hedge fund was hemorrhaging investors
12:44
Speaker 2: because his bets weren't paying off. And so I don't
12:48
Speaker 2: know why he really gets lionized as you know, some
12:53
Speaker 2: kind of you know, read on exactly what's gonna happen
12:56
Speaker 2: in the market other than people know the name. But
13:00
Speaker 2: because you know his character is used in the big short.
13:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't none of this is helpful to an
13:05
Speaker 3: individual investor. I don't think he's not really an investory
13:07
Speaker 3: speculating and investor puts their capital in a long and
13:10
Speaker 3: a generative asset for the long term. It's what we
13:13
Speaker 3: do in our day jobs. It's what pension funds do.
13:16
Speaker 3: It's what you do if you have a four oh
13:18
Speaker 3: one K and you're in a target date fund that
13:20
Speaker 3: reallocates automatically as you age and rebalances automatically to keep
13:25
Speaker 3: your mix in line with your goals. That's how most
13:28
Speaker 3: people should approach investing. Are stock's expensive, Well, objectively, yes,
13:32
Speaker 3: they are. By expensive, we mean is their price high
13:35
Speaker 3: relative to past twelve months earnings or a longer period
13:40
Speaker 3: of earnings? If you like one of those smooth measures.
13:42
Speaker 3: Stocks are undeniably very expensive, and historically that's portended low returns.
13:48
Speaker 3: Just like when any asset gets too expensive, your yield
13:51
Speaker 3: goes down because it's the reciprocal of that you flip it.
13:55
Speaker 3: So stocks are objectively expensive. Does that mean they're going
13:57
Speaker 3: to crash?
13:58
Speaker 2: No?
13:59
Speaker 3: Could earn a growth speed up because of all of
14:02
Speaker 3: this artificial intelligence investment that should make its way into productivity.
14:06
Speaker 3: Maybe it did last quarter when unemployment went up and
14:09
Speaker 3: growth went up, very unusual coincidence there. We don't know.
14:14
Speaker 3: Should we be betting against individual companies the way he is?
14:17
Speaker 3: It's alluring because these companies seem to be pricing in
14:23
Speaker 3: ridiculously high levels of growth, But who knows?
14:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, And so again I just I don't. I don't
14:33
Speaker 2: get needing to follow like famous investors every moves. I
14:37
Speaker 2: just it doesn't do it for me.
14:40
Speaker 3: But the stock market would be boring without that, is it?
14:44
Speaker 3: I mean? The target date? I mean for most of
14:48
Speaker 3: us as investors, though, who use a target date fund
14:50
Speaker 3: or something like it. You're supposed to set it, forget it,
14:52
Speaker 3: and then you know, thirty years you start to cash out.
14:54
Speaker 3: And historically that's work. That That's what I mean.
14:57
Speaker 2: That's pretty exciting to me.
14:58
Speaker 3: Yeah it is. But it's like wh watching paint dry,
15:01
Speaker 3: which after I like that too. You just like the smell,
15:05
Speaker 3: you just like the no.
15:06
Speaker 2: No, I enjoy watching it. There actually is something cool
15:10
Speaker 2: about watching it dry, like if you ever actually watched paint.
15:13
Speaker 3: Dry, no, like a time lapse film or no.
15:16
Speaker 2: So honestly, like I've painted like a decent number of
15:19
Speaker 2: rooms like it at one point or another in my life.
15:21
Speaker 2: And the cool thing about it is like, quite honestly,
15:25
Speaker 2: it dries a different color than when you done, and
15:28
Speaker 2: I don't know, I find the whole pro.
15:30
Speaker 3: The only reason I'm interested is because I want to
15:31
Speaker 3: know when I could put the second coat on and
15:33
Speaker 3: get on with my.
15:34
Speaker 2: I do that too. Yeah, I love painting personally, Like
15:37
Speaker 2: there's just something very zen about it. It's just like
15:40
Speaker 2: as long as you have time, it's just okay.
15:42
Speaker 3: I'm just it's like most people would consider that to
15:45
Speaker 3: be after a while sort of boring, and investing should
15:48
Speaker 3: be boring too. You put in your you make your deferral.
15:51
Speaker 3: Every couple of weeks, stocks do hopefully what they've done
15:54
Speaker 3: historically going forward and I don't mean the same percentage return.
15:56
Speaker 3: I just mean grow with the economy. That could be
15:59
Speaker 3: five percent going forward, it could be six seven eight,
16:01
Speaker 3: it'll probably be more than bonds. The whole industry of
16:04
Speaker 3: financial services kind of founded on that proposition. If that
16:07
Speaker 3: doesn't work out over a very long period of time,
16:10
Speaker 3: we're in trouble. But the Burry infatuation, like the Peter
16:13
Speaker 3: Lynchin infatuation, the Warren Buffett infatuation, they make what would
16:17
Speaker 3: otherwise be watching paint dry a little sexier. Maybe that's
16:21
Speaker 3: sort of my theory. Otherwise most of us can't.
16:24
Speaker 2: You don't think the market's like exciting without not pets.
16:27
Speaker 3: I just see numbers move, I see rates, and no,
16:30
Speaker 3: I don't.
16:31
Speaker 2: I don't. It doesn't interesting.
16:32
Speaker 3: Well like exciting. It's good to make it's good to
16:35
Speaker 3: be a successful long term, to be a discipline, not
16:37
Speaker 3: successful because we're all just along for the ride. But
16:40
Speaker 3: I know I don't think that day. I don't find
16:41
Speaker 3: the day to day movements. I find them interesting sometimes,
16:44
Speaker 3: like oh wow, that that's an anomaly, that's the frequency
16:47
Speaker 3: of that is small historically.
16:48
Speaker 2: That's the stuff I mean Like, I mean, okay, then
16:51
Speaker 2: how can you get this year in markets and say
16:53
Speaker 2: like it hasn't been exciting. We've seen some stuff this year,
16:58
Speaker 2: you know. No, I don't need like Michael Burry saying
17:00
Speaker 2: like a eyes a bubble to feel like we've seen
17:03
Speaker 2: some stuff this year. I mean, we had like one
17:05
Speaker 2: of the fastest twenty percent draw downs in history in
17:09
Speaker 2: March and April. Yeah, and then we had an unprecedented
17:13
Speaker 2: run of a lack of volatility in the six months
17:16
Speaker 2: after that, like one of the calmest six month market
17:19
Speaker 2: periods in history. After that, even just in the last
17:22
Speaker 2: couple of weeks, you saw precious metals go parabolic up
17:25
Speaker 2: and now they're you know, kind of going parabolic down. Yeah,
17:29
Speaker 2: Like there's some wild stuff that's happening.
17:31
Speaker 3: I never know what to make of that, which is
17:33
Speaker 3: why I I get a little less excited maybe than
17:37
Speaker 3: I should, given that, you know, my job depends on it.
17:40
Speaker 2: Maybe it's better that you don't get excited. Possibly, you know,
17:44
Speaker 2: it's like you don't want the surgeon get it being like, oh,
17:47
Speaker 2: look at this, like you just want to do that's
17:48
Speaker 2: a big tummer.
17:49
Speaker 3: You just wanted to be like, sorry, that's a tasteless.
17:52
Speaker 2: You just wanted to be like, oh, like, let me
17:54
Speaker 2: go do my job.
17:55
Speaker 3: Although probably does think that. They just they just don't
17:58
Speaker 3: convey it like, wow, that's that's that that's in really
18:01
Speaker 3: bad shape.
18:02
Speaker 2: Well, right, even as I talk about like, hey, this
18:04
Speaker 2: market's exciting, ultimately I look at it and I say, okay,
18:09
Speaker 2: this is what you want to do in conditions X,
18:11
Speaker 2: Y and Z, Like there's a job to do.
18:15
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just want eight to ten percent real returns
18:17
Speaker 3: and call it a day. But that's, as you point
18:20
Speaker 3: it out, you get instead go away for forty years,
18:23
Speaker 3: and you know that's my ideal sort of state of existence. Yeah, yeah,
18:27
Speaker 3: set it forget.
18:28
Speaker 2: It sitting on a beach somewhere while the compounding happens
18:31
Speaker 2: for you.
18:32
Speaker 3: Yeah, let it work for you, which is what we
18:34
Speaker 3: all really do, which is what you do in your
18:36
Speaker 3: four oh one K. You put your money in every
18:37
Speaker 3: two week. You don't really think about it.
18:39
Speaker 2: Yeah. So that's uh, what we've got going on there.
18:43
Speaker 2: Be prepared to keep paying more for electricity that sucks.
18:49
Speaker 3: Schrigger didn't hit that in her column. She no, this
18:53
Speaker 3: I know, but yeah, this is an example of.
18:56
Speaker 2: So yeah, you've got her average residential electricity rates risen
19:00
Speaker 2: four point nine percent this year according to the EU.
19:04
Speaker 2: The data from the CPI I think is a touch
19:07
Speaker 2: hotter than that. I think it's closer to like six
19:09
Speaker 2: percent year over year. And doo. We expects that electricity
19:12
Speaker 2: rates are gonna rise another four percent next year, but
19:16
Speaker 2: no one has any idea because you unless you know
19:19
Speaker 2: how much of the input commodities are gonna cost, you
19:22
Speaker 2: don't know how much electricity rates are gonna go up. Yeah.
19:26
Speaker 3: The demand component is another variable, maybe a little less
19:29
Speaker 3: harder to forecast.
19:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean again, aside from the data centerpiece, everything
19:35
Speaker 2: else moves pretty predictably because we only build out so
19:38
Speaker 2: much capacity each year. We only have the population grow
19:41
Speaker 2: so much each year. There's only so many homes built
19:43
Speaker 2: each year. You can predict the demand I think pretty easily,
19:47
Speaker 2: just because it doesn't wiggle too much. The supply thing
19:49
Speaker 2: is where I think the questions are, and unfortunately that's
19:52
Speaker 2: gonna be where they continue to be. Just take a
19:54
Speaker 2: quick break. When we come back, we get the trivia
19:56
Speaker 2: answer and Wall Street Watch.
19:57
Speaker 1: Next, bringing the latest financial news straight.
20:10
Speaker 2: To your radio.
20:12
Speaker 1: Every day. It's the Financial Exchange on the Financial Exchange
20:15
Speaker 1: Radio Network. Time now for Wall Street Watch a complete
20:21
Speaker 1: look at what's moving markets so far today right here
20:24
Speaker 1: on the Financial Exchange Radio Network.
20:26
Speaker 5: Well, the final trading week of twenty twenty five is
20:30
Speaker 5: upon US, and markets are pulling back slightly. Is investors
20:34
Speaker 5: away to small batch of economic data points do out
20:37
Speaker 5: this shortened week, including FED meeting minutes and jobless claims.
20:41
Speaker 5: We saw pending home sales posted earlier this morning. Right now,
20:46
Speaker 5: the Dow is down about a half a percent or
20:48
Speaker 5: two hundred and twenty seven points, s and P five
20:51
Speaker 5: hundred down nearly half a percent or thirty points lowered,
20:55
Speaker 5: Nasdaq down by six tenths of a percent or one
20:57
Speaker 5: hundred and forty six points. Russell one thousand is down
21:00
Speaker 5: two thirds of a percent, Tenure Treasury yield down one
21:04
Speaker 5: basis point at four point one one six percent, and
21:07
Speaker 5: crude oil up about two and a half percent, trading
21:10
Speaker 5: just above fifty eight dollars a barrel. Japan SoftBank agreed
21:15
Speaker 5: to buy data center investment firm digital Bridge for four
21:18
Speaker 5: billion dollars as part of its artificial intelligence push. Shares
21:22
Speaker 5: in digital Bridge are up over nine percent. Meanwhile, in
21:26
Speaker 5: video shares it down almost two percent. On the heels
21:29
Speaker 5: of news from last week that the Chip and AI
21:32
Speaker 5: Giant agreed to buy assets from Groc for twenty billion
21:35
Speaker 5: dollars in cash. Grock is a nine year old chip
21:37
Speaker 5: startup that designs high performance AI chips. The deal marks
21:42
Speaker 5: and Vidia's largest purchase ever. Elsewhere, the Wall Street Journal
21:45
Speaker 5: is reporting that Lululemon founder Chip Wilson is launching a
21:49
Speaker 5: proxy fight at the athletic apparel retailer in an effort
21:53
Speaker 5: to remake the company's board as the company searches for
21:55
Speaker 5: a new CEO. Lulu stock is up nearly one percent,
22:00
Speaker 5: and Disney's Avatar Fire and Ash retain the number one
22:03
Speaker 5: spot in the domestic box office for a second straight weekend.
22:07
Speaker 5: Avatar in Disney's Zootopia two were the two top performing
22:12
Speaker 5: movies by worldwide ticket sales. Disney shares edging higher so
22:16
Speaker 5: far today. I'm Tucker Silva and that is Wall Street Watching.
22:20
Speaker 5: On the previous segment, we asked you the trivia question,
22:24
Speaker 5: what was the twenty ninth state admitted to the US.
22:27
Speaker 5: That would be Iowa. Chris from Melrose, Mass is our
22:30
Speaker 5: winner today, taking home a Financial Exchange Show T shirt.
22:33
Speaker 5: Congrats to Chris. We played trivia every day here in
22:36
Speaker 5: the Financial Exchange. See complete contest rules at Financial Exchange
22:40
Speaker 5: show dot com.
22:41
Speaker 2: Can we just talk about that Avatar movie briefly?
22:45
Speaker 5: Are you an Avatar guy?
22:47
Speaker 2: No, No, I'm not either. I'm not. I saw the
22:49
Speaker 2: first one, and quite honestly, I saw the first one
22:51
Speaker 2: I think twice in theaters just because at the time
22:53
Speaker 2: I was like, like, just like the visuals were mind blowing.
22:57
Speaker 2: I was like, this is just like really cool.
23:00
Speaker 5: And yeah, I haven't seen one second of any of that.
23:02
Speaker 2: Frit Like, I haven't seen either of the next two.
23:04
Speaker 2: And I think that that's how basically most people are
23:07
Speaker 2: in the United States. Because here's the really interesting thing
23:10
Speaker 2: is when you look at the data on these three movies. Uh,
23:16
Speaker 2: the first one came out in two thousand and nine.
23:19
Speaker 2: The gross that it brought in worldwide was like two
23:24
Speaker 2: point nine billion dollars, which is just an insane amount
23:27
Speaker 2: of money, especially in two thousand and nine dollars. Remember,
23:29
Speaker 2: like that's you know, quite a bit of inflation to go.
23:33
Speaker 2: The second one brought in two point three billion, and
23:37
Speaker 2: about seven hundred of that was domestic. The first one
23:40
Speaker 2: about eight hundred of that was domestic. This one right
23:43
Speaker 2: now has not yet been you know, fully released internationally,
23:46
Speaker 2: but it's tracking about the same, about twenty eight percent
23:49
Speaker 2: domestic two hundred million so far, five hundred and forty
23:52
Speaker 2: million international, So the thing's done seven hundred and sixty
23:57
Speaker 2: million dollars worldwide at this point. And this is why, Like,
24:01
Speaker 2: despite people in the US kind of being like James Cameron,
24:04
Speaker 2: like what are you doing? Like why do you keep
24:06
Speaker 2: releasing these movies? Like we're just not like as interested
24:10
Speaker 2: as we used to be, The fact is the international
24:13
Speaker 2: box office is what it's all about for these you know,
24:18
Speaker 2: even even if this movie costs, you know, several hundred
24:20
Speaker 2: million dollars to make, when it ends up grossing one
24:24
Speaker 2: point six to two billion dollars worldwide, okay, Like yeah,
24:30
Speaker 2: they're going to be perfectly fine letting James Cameron do
24:33
Speaker 2: whatever he wants to do as long as he keeps
24:36
Speaker 2: printing two billion dollars for them. So I know that.
24:39
Speaker 2: Like I look at this and I'm like, man, it's
24:43
Speaker 2: a three hour and seventeen minute movie that I just
24:46
Speaker 2: like am not interested in seeing. And I get it,
24:49
Speaker 2: Like that's kind of what the data is showing domestically,
24:53
Speaker 2: but worldwide it's still going to turn out you know,
24:55
Speaker 2: one and a half billion dollars in international revenue, and
24:58
Speaker 2: they'll be perfectly high to keep, you know, underrating whatever
25:01
Speaker 2: James Cameron wants to do for you know, the remainder
25:05
Speaker 2: of his career.
25:05
Speaker 3: It's a little bit of a paradox. It's like this
25:08
Speaker 3: movie nobody's ever seen it, and people that nobody's nobody's
25:12
Speaker 3: seen it, and those that have seen it, you know,
25:14
Speaker 3: some rave but most.
25:15
Speaker 2: I have a couple of friends who have like they
25:16
Speaker 2: got dragged, like a friend or family member, and they're
25:18
Speaker 2: kind of like, yeah, yeah, so that's what I mean.
25:21
Speaker 3: But it's it's both something nobody's seen and those who
25:24
Speaker 3: have seen. I'm contradicting myself a little bit there, but
25:26
Speaker 3: those who have seen were not particularly moved by it.
25:29
Speaker 3: Also wildly successful. It's like some of these podcasts.
25:32
Speaker 2: Put on and nobody goes there anymore.
25:34
Speaker 3: There you go exactly. So it's it's one of those
25:38
Speaker 3: types of paradoxes. It's like these wildly successful podcasters Joe
25:44
Speaker 3: Rogan or whomever, nobody listens to him or very few do,
25:48
Speaker 3: proportionally speaking, wildly successful, paid hundreds of millions of dollars
25:52
Speaker 3: a year. It shows the power of digital media and
25:55
Speaker 3: modern distribution channels. For I'll just say art, it's expanded
25:59
Speaker 3: the audience by billions in the case of movies and
26:02
Speaker 3: podcasters too of people.
26:04
Speaker 2: The wild thing about James Cameron is like, just if
26:09
Speaker 2: you look at his career and what he's done, he
26:14
Speaker 2: basically almost never releases anything, but when he does, it's
26:18
Speaker 2: usually something pretty important. Like you gotta like go through
26:21
Speaker 2: the list, and like, his first couple things were again
26:24
Speaker 2: I've never seen them, so I don't know anything about them.
26:26
Speaker 2: But his first thing was a film called Xenogenesis back
26:31
Speaker 2: in nineteen seventy eight. Have either of you heard of it? No,
26:37
Speaker 2: I haven't. Then he finally got big and eighty fourth Terminator,
26:40
Speaker 2: like revolutionary movie that like changed basically like along with Diehard,
26:45
Speaker 2: basically changed how action movies are made. Comes out you
26:50
Speaker 2: know the next year again for actually, no, he didn't
26:52
Speaker 2: direct Rambo First Blood that was I think he was
26:56
Speaker 2: just a producer on it and maybe a writer. Then
26:58
Speaker 2: he comes out two years later with Aliens, the sequel
27:01
Speaker 2: to Alien like wasn't even his own original ip, but
27:04
Speaker 2: gets pulled in for the second one. There takes a
27:08
Speaker 2: few years off, does the ABYSS, spends a bunch of
27:10
Speaker 2: time like working on the technology to be able to
27:12
Speaker 2: make it. The reason Adobe Photoshop exists today is because
27:17
Speaker 2: James Cameron had to literally make the technology in order
27:21
Speaker 2: to be able to get like the visual effects he
27:24
Speaker 2: wanted in the ABYSS into the ABYSS.
27:27
Speaker 3: I guess it was worth it, you know.
27:29
Speaker 2: Then Terminator two, Judgment Day True Lies, and then comes
27:32
Speaker 2: out with Titanic, So he basically is like six seven
27:35
Speaker 2: movies over like twenty five years, like doesn't produce a
27:37
Speaker 2: ton then goes and takes I think twelve years off
27:42
Speaker 2: between Titanic and Avatar, not off, but like he's working
27:45
Speaker 2: on it. He's working on it, and then just has
27:47
Speaker 2: done three Avatar movies in the last sixteen years. So, like,
27:52
Speaker 2: the thing about James Cameron is, aside from a couple
27:55
Speaker 2: of these movies that like completely changed the game, you like,
27:59
Speaker 2: the rest of his career kind of like like it's
28:01
Speaker 2: kind of forgettable, but like every ten years or so
28:04
Speaker 2: he does something that completely pushes the technology and the
28:07
Speaker 2: genre forward, which I think is just kind of interesting, folks.
28:10
Speaker 2: The Armstrong Advisory Group has a guide available this month.
28:16
Speaker 2: It's titled Retirement Planning for Spouses And this gets at
28:21
Speaker 2: some of the plan and considerations. If you happen to
28:25
Speaker 2: be married and there's only a couple days left in
28:28
Speaker 2: the month, and there's only a couple days left for
28:29
Speaker 2: you to request this guide, but it goes through questions
28:34
Speaker 2: about Social Security claiming and coordination of those benefits. How
28:38
Speaker 2: do you address healthcare for both spouses, especially if there's
28:41
Speaker 2: an age difference at retirement. How do you make sure
28:44
Speaker 2: that you're getting the most out of a healthcare plan
28:47
Speaker 2: at the lowest possible cost. Long term care planning, when
28:50
Speaker 2: do you address those strategies? And how are the best
28:53
Speaker 2: ways for you to think about those topics. All that
28:56
Speaker 2: and more is in this guide titled Retirement Planning for
28:59
Speaker 2: Spouse And again it's December twenty ninth right now, so
29:03
Speaker 2: you know you're basically at the end of the month.
29:05
Speaker 2: They know, to be honest, no one does anything on
29:06
Speaker 2: the thirty first, So if you're going to request the guide,
29:10
Speaker 2: this is the time to do So. How do you
29:12
Speaker 2: request it? Two ways? Number one, you can call eight
29:15
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29:20
Speaker 2: you can go to Armstrong Advisory dot Com and requested there. Again,
29:25
Speaker 2: The guide is titled Retirement Planning for Spouses basically get
29:28
Speaker 2: into you know the last couple of days. You can
29:30
Speaker 2: request it and it's available at Armstrong Advisory dot com
29:35
Speaker 2: or by calling eight hundred three nine three for zero
29:39
Speaker 2: zero one.
29:40
Speaker 1: The proceeding was paid for by Armstrong Advisory Group, a
29:42
Speaker 1: registered investment advisor. Nothing in the ad or in any
29:45
Speaker 1: Armstrong guide a specific financial, legal or tax advice. Consult
29:48
Speaker 1: your own financial tax into state planning advisors before making
29:51
Speaker 1: any investment decisions. Armstrong may contact you to offer investment
29:54
Speaker 1: advisory services.
29:55
Speaker 2: Piece in the Wall Street Journal Tech that will change
29:57
Speaker 2: your life in twenty twenty six. What sounds exciting to you?
30:01
Speaker 2: And here Mark robots.
30:04
Speaker 3: I'm thrilled with the idea because I'm in my fifties
30:07
Speaker 3: thinking about how will i live. A lot of people,
30:09
Speaker 3: I suppose, as they reach middle age and realize you
30:11
Speaker 3: can't do what you used to do. Wonder when I'm
30:15
Speaker 3: interested in robots. Not so that I could play chess
30:18
Speaker 3: with them, or so they can fold shirts, but just
30:21
Speaker 3: carry something heavy up the stairs, help me shovel the drive.
30:24
Speaker 3: This doesn't have to be particularly bright robot, just capable
30:26
Speaker 3: of doing grunt work, sure, and I wonder dis Yeah,
30:30
Speaker 3: screw doing the dishes. I mean, any even a frail,
30:32
Speaker 3: feeble person can.
30:35
Speaker 2: God did so many dishes yesterday.
30:38
Speaker 3: Yeah, but wouldn't you agree that doing the dishes is
30:41
Speaker 3: probably not top five things I need to do to
30:43
Speaker 3: continue to live independently. But taking the shopping up the
30:46
Speaker 3: stairs or out of the car, this is gruntwork. I
30:48
Speaker 3: don't need a sophisticated robot that can quote Hamlet Act two,
30:52
Speaker 3: Scene three while playing Connect four and walking my dog
30:55
Speaker 3: and all this stuff that engineers think is on there.
30:57
Speaker 2: You don't want a companion through the road.
31:00
Speaker 3: Buy me a companion a robot, Yes, but I do
31:03
Speaker 3: need something to front me. I want I want to
31:05
Speaker 3: carry a ninety pound bag of cement?
31:08
Speaker 2: Why ninety Why stop there?
31:09
Speaker 3: That's the quantity. I think that's a standard quint at.
31:11
Speaker 2: What about three ninety pound bags.
31:13
Speaker 3: I don't want a robot quite that strong, because you
31:15
Speaker 3: don't want to hurt you. But I think well, and
31:17
Speaker 3: it will eventually get annoyed with me and try to
31:19
Speaker 3: break my neck.
31:21
Speaker 2: So, Mark, you have asked me that for the last time.
31:24
Speaker 2: I'm stop asking me how fast GDP is growing? Mark,
31:30
Speaker 2: I'm not interested.
31:31
Speaker 3: I don't even need it to talk, but I needed
31:33
Speaker 3: to carry stuff, including you know, me, up the stairs
31:36
Speaker 3: at some point. I sure imagine if your back goes
31:38
Speaker 3: and you can't make it up the stairs. So related issue,
31:41
Speaker 3: are we aiming too high with AI infused robots?
31:49
Speaker 2: Do I think we are?
31:50
Speaker 3: Yeah? No, you've heard about what they are apparently struggling with,
31:54
Speaker 3: Like this robot can't gift wrap a package. Well the
31:56
Speaker 3: hell I can gift wrap a package, and hopefully I'll
31:59
Speaker 3: be able to do that even if I only have
32:00
Speaker 3: a couple of working fingers. But I can't carry the
32:03
Speaker 3: laundry basket or the package up the stairs.
32:05
Speaker 2: I think that we are. I think the average person
32:09
Speaker 2: is dramatically underestimating what robots are going to be able
32:12
Speaker 2: to do in the next three to five years. Not overestimating,
32:15
Speaker 2: I think most because I think most people like hear
32:17
Speaker 2: the stuff about like, oh, like you can't even do this.
32:19
Speaker 2: It can't even this is like for generation stuff, you know,
32:23
Speaker 2: like the Ford Model T couldn't do a lot of
32:25
Speaker 2: things either.
32:26
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, and you know, where's the sunroof?
32:29
Speaker 1: You know?
32:29
Speaker 3: And actually they did have a great sunroof.
32:31
Speaker 2: It did roof, you know, but like there were some
32:33
Speaker 2: real problems. You were the first cars, and then you
32:36
Speaker 2: give it though, so were the first robots.
32:39
Speaker 3: Yeah right, you know it's are we asking too much
32:41
Speaker 3: of of of so called humanoid personal assistant type robots?
32:45
Speaker 2: No, if you want my prediction, I think we are over.
32:49
Speaker 2: Here's where I'll land. Actually, I think we're overestimating what
32:51
Speaker 2: large language models are going to be able to do
32:53
Speaker 2: five years from now relative to robots. I think we're
32:58
Speaker 2: going to actually find that five years from now there's
33:01
Speaker 2: more progression on robots that can do physical things than
33:04
Speaker 2: ones that can do ver rates advocating.
33:09
Speaker 3: That's what I'm hoping for.
33:10
Speaker 2: Because I think we're getting towards the commoditization and the
33:12
Speaker 2: limits of the transformer based large language model, and I
33:17
Speaker 2: don't think we're anywhere near that on robots that can
33:20
Speaker 2: actually pick things up.
33:23
Speaker 3: That's all I needed to hear.
33:24
Speaker 2: That's where I think we're going. Quick break here, when
33:26
Speaker 2: we come up, we got come back, We got stack Roulette.
33:29
Speaker 1: Here the Financial Exchange every day from eleven to noon,
33:32
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33:36
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34:05
Speaker 5: This segment of The Financial Exchange is brought to you
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34:43
Speaker 2: What you got for me?
34:44
Speaker 3: Mark Financial Times makes a good argument for diversification, not
34:48
Speaker 3: just domestically, but considering the global opportunity set. The headline
34:52
Speaker 3: from The Times, US stocks eclipsed by rest of world
34:55
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty five, a little bit jarring at first.
34:58
Speaker 3: Stocks are up nearly twenty percent, is measured by the
35:01
Speaker 3: S and P five hundred index, but not as much
35:03
Speaker 3: as international stock indices. The Financial Times points out that
35:08
Speaker 3: the All Country World Index, maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital,
35:13
Speaker 3: the MSCI All Country World Index, you may have this
35:15
Speaker 3: option in your four one K plant, so that might
35:17
Speaker 3: kind of ring a bell, is up about thirty percent.
35:19
Speaker 2: Not the index because investors cannot invest in the end.
35:22
Speaker 3: Yeah, an index tracking mutual fund or exchange traded fund right.
35:27
Speaker 3: Induices are designed to be investable, but you can't actually
35:30
Speaker 3: buy them from MSCI or SNP, Rustle or whomever. A
35:34
Speaker 3: lot of the so the global market xus now is
35:38
Speaker 3: up about thirty percent, and a lot of that comes
35:40
Speaker 3: from the decline of the dollar relative to not all
35:43
Speaker 3: of it, but a lot of it comes from the
35:45
Speaker 3: decline of the dollar relative to foreign currencies. So it's
35:47
Speaker 3: a nice little reminder that a long term investor who's
35:50
Speaker 3: comfortable with equity risk should look abroad a little bit too.
35:54
Speaker 3: In most target date funds, which invest in a wide
35:57
Speaker 3: variety of assets. On your behalf do that for you.
36:00
Speaker 2: I got a piece from CNBC thirty one year old
36:02
Speaker 2: scoops ice cream on the side for sixteen fifteen hour
36:04
Speaker 2: to make ends meet in this job market. There's zero
36:06
Speaker 2: shame in it. I guess my question on this is
36:10
Speaker 2: why is this news? You know? And I look at
36:14
Speaker 2: it and I think about it, and I remember when
36:16
Speaker 2: I was a kid growing up, and again, when you're
36:19
Speaker 2: like seven eight years old, you don't understand how this
36:20
Speaker 2: stuff works. But I remember that my dad took a
36:25
Speaker 2: job at a toy retailer one year. And I don't
36:29
Speaker 2: know exactly how long he was there. My recollection is
36:31
Speaker 2: it was maybe like six to eighteen months, like something
36:34
Speaker 2: along those lines. But you know, you get older and like,
36:36
Speaker 2: you you know, talk to him as you get older,
36:38
Speaker 2: and like after the fact, it's like, oh, like, yeah,
36:41
Speaker 2: dadd had lost his job and needed to figure out
36:43
Speaker 2: how to you know, keep food on the table, and
36:44
Speaker 2: so he went to work, you know, at a toy
36:47
Speaker 2: retailer for you know, somewhere in the ballpark of a
36:49
Speaker 2: year in order to make ends meet, and like my
36:52
Speaker 2: assumption I guess has been embedded me in me since then,
36:55
Speaker 2: was yes, like you have to do what you have
36:57
Speaker 2: to do in order to make ends meat. I don't
37:00
Speaker 2: I really think that someone, you know, a thirty one
37:04
Speaker 2: year old scooping ice cream is newsworthy because I guess
37:09
Speaker 2: I always just viewed it as Okay, if you lose
37:12
Speaker 2: your job and need to figure out how to pay
37:13
Speaker 2: the rent, then you go and get another job and
37:15
Speaker 2: figure out how to pay the rent. And that's kind
37:17
Speaker 2: of just been an assumption for me. I guess, did you.
37:19
Speaker 3: See the story or And I want to bring up
37:21
Speaker 3: the context because it's not important here. But there's a
37:23
Speaker 3: story in our stack today about a grown man who's
37:26
Speaker 3: on food assistance. I don't want to bring up the context.
37:28
Speaker 3: I don't want to besmirch him. Sure, it's not really
37:31
Speaker 3: about that, But my first reaction was, Oh, that's too bad.
37:33
Speaker 3: He's highly educated, can't find a good fit. But why
37:36
Speaker 3: aren't you working at Target for the holiday season?
37:39
Speaker 1: Right?
37:39
Speaker 3: Why are you taking food stamps that are intended for
37:41
Speaker 3: single moms and elderly impoverished and others who can't go
37:45
Speaker 3: to work who probably want to this is kind of related,
37:49
Speaker 3: Chuck to the do what you gotta do rutality that
37:51
Speaker 3: you clearly got from your dad.
37:53
Speaker 2: You just kind of have to figure it out. So
37:55
Speaker 2: I don't think it should be newsworthy that someone's pick
38:00
Speaker 2: up shifts on the side in order to make ends meet.
38:02
Speaker 2: Like that's I don't know, Like I still remember when
38:05
Speaker 2: I graduated from college, Like again, it was like the
38:07
Speaker 2: middle of the financial crisis, like there weren't really great jobs.
38:11
Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, what am I gonna do. I've
38:12
Speaker 2: worked a bunch of sports camps and stuff that summer
38:14
Speaker 2: in order to make ends meet. And I was fortunate
38:16
Speaker 2: enough that shortly after the end of the summer, you know,
38:19
Speaker 2: I started, you know work at you know, a more permanent,
38:21
Speaker 2: you know job and everything. But yeah, for you know,
38:24
Speaker 2: six seven months, it was kind of like, all right,
38:27
Speaker 2: you got to figure it out, Like it's you know,
38:29
Speaker 2: it is what it is. Let's take a quick break
38:32
Speaker 2: here for the rest of the day, but we're gonna
38:35
Speaker 2: be back here to uh continue finishing up the year tomorrow.
38:38
Speaker 2: Right here on the Financial Exchange