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96% Chance FED Cuts Rates! | What's Next for Bitcoin? | Bitcoin Simply · Simply Bitcoin

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  Eric Trump just went on CNBC and had this to say about Bitcoin.
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  Bitcoin has become, I think the truly greatest asset of our
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  time. The greatest asset of our time.
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  Who would have thought that this would be the comments coming
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  from the White House? Who would have thought that meme
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  money, the Bitcoin virus would have infiltrated the White House
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  in the halls of power? So much so that now even the
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  president, his dad, has a low time preference, advocating that
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  we should be taking a 50 to 100 year approach when it comes to
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  our investments like China. But this is still the US
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  economy. And with Uncle Rome set to take
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  the podium tomorrow, Wall Street expects a 25 basis point rate
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  cut to happen with 96% confidence.
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  And there's some analysts out there like Gareth, who cares
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  what I say? Soloway says that despite rate
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  cuts, bitcoins still going to fall to 75 K.
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  So I do think, you know, I can't tell you where it's going to be
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  in 10-15 years from now, But after a correction that I do
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  think we are close to. And I will go on record and say
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  I do think Bitcoins going back to at least $75,000, while
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  others like Tom Lee have very different, different
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  predictions. Bitcoin and Ethereum I think
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  there could make a monster move in the next three months.
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  Like huge. The stage is set for toddlers
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  with long term mindsets and diamond hands.
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  As to what will happen in the next two days, we're not sure.
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  But what will happen over the next 21 years, well, we know
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  what time it is. This is Dante Cook with Bitcoin.
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  Simply let's go. But you're also seeing assets
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  like Bitcoin. Bitcoin has become the modern
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  day gold. People all over the world are
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  pouring into it. You know, companies from Fortune
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  5 hundreds, the company like ours, the sovereign wealth
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  funds, so the richest families on earth are all hoarding
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  Bitcoin. It's become such an incredible
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  asset. It's immediately liquid.
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  It's probably the greatest hedge to real estate.
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  You know that there is, right, Because again, you have you have
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  massive liquidity. It's all around the world is
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  protected by kind of the, the, the greatest ecosystem of, of
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  energy mining companies in the world that that safeguard it.
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  Bitcoin has become, I think the truly greatest asset of our
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  time. That's right.
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  Bitcoin is the greatest asset of all time.
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  It's a superior asset to gold. It's a hedge against real
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  estate. Everyone wants it and the
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  richest people on earth are hoarding it according to Eric
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  Trump. And that's because Bitcoin is
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  not just a monetary revolution. It's an ideological revolution
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  disguised in technology, one that's causing Americans to
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  rethink time preference. People like our president.
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  Let's go back to our top story this morning, Matt, And it is
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  President Trump saying that companies should not be forced
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  to report quarterly earnings. The president took Just Truth
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  Social to save firms reporting on 1/2 yearly basis would quote
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  save money and allow managers to focus properly on running their
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  companies. The president saying we've
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  become too focused on these short term and that reporting on
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  a quarterly basis should now be extended to six months and our
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  fiercest rivals like China have a 50 to 100 year view on how
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  they look at things. This is massive news, especially
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  for Bitcoin treasury companies who believe that over the long
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  term, Bitcoin leveraged properly against Fiat dollars which are
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  becoming worth less, is a pretty good bet to me.
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  You know, so bitcoins, a long term asset, you know you want to
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  hold it for 21 years. If you're going to invest in
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  Bitcoin, a short time horizon is 4 years, a mid time horizon is
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  10 years. The right time horizon is
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  forever. You know, Warren Buffett said,
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  you know, if you wouldn't hold it for 10 years, you shouldn't
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  hold it for 10 minutes. So if you look at the course of
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  four years, no one's ever lost money over 4 years holding
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  Bitcoin. And, and if you look at, you
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  know, our experience, we started buying it at $10,000 and now
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  it's up by a factor of 4. So, so given the right time
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  horizon, you're fine. So it's a blessing and a curse.
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  The blessing is it makes it the most exciting, interesting thing
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  in the financial universe everywhere in the world.
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  And and the curses, it can induce anxiety for people that
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  have a short attention span or or are focused on a narrow time
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  horizon. Bitcoin can induce anxiety for
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  people with a narrow time horizon, and that's the entire
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  market these days. Everything is so short term, so
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  short sighted. Point in case, as an example, we
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  want our Bitcoin treasury companies like NACA to go up
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  overnight all at once. Right now, trollers out there
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  like Magoo say that NACA should be changing their ticker to
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  NADA, whose stock has gone down 96% since May and over 50%
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  yesterday. But if you can't withstand A
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  drawdown, then you deserve the mediocre returns that you get.
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  Here's what the Rat Poison Square professor Charlie Munger
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  has to say about drawdowns that you can argue that if you're not
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  willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50%
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  two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common
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  shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to
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  get. I don't even know what Charlie
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  said. You live in what?
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  Kind of home, not for real. You didn't hear me come to
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  pontificate about the long term structural problems of the Fed
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  fiscal dominance or the market regime that is changing right
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  before our eyes. You want to know what's going to
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  happen with Bitcoin in the next three months if the Fed cuts
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  rates? You only want to hear what's
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  going to happen if Jerome Powell cuts rates tomorrow.
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  You alluded to some of the places that could see the
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  biggest impact, yes, but can you take us through those if you had
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  to put a top three together about where you think the most
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  activity or juice could come from if the Fed were to embark
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  on this path? I think of maybe home builders,
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  I think of other parts of the market, maybe technology based
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  on valuations, but in your mind, what are the places that are
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  going to reap the most benefit from that?
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  Yeah. So I'm looking at September 98
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  and September 2024 as the playbook because those are both
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  years where the Fed was on extended pause and they cut in
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  September. The number one trade is NASDAQ
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  100. So I think that's why the MAG 7
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  and the AI trade gets a lot of lift off.
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  The second is monetary liquidity sensitivity, global central
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  banks easing. That's Bitcoin and Ethereum and
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  seasonally strong. I think they could make a
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  monster move in the next three months like huge.
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  And the third of course is interest rate sensitives.
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  That's really small caps and financials, but really the 1st 2
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  might be the standout trades. All right.
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  Because you mentioned the crypto side of things.
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  Small caps, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Mag 7 all going to run when the
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  rates get cut. We talked about this in our last
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  episode. That's probably a good bet, but
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  I would be doing you a disservice if I focused your
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  time horizon onto a narrow sliver of time and not the long
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  term picture of what's going on. Here's the long term things
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  playing out that you need to keep in the back of your mind.
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  One, the government is unfixable.
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  The greatest builder and entrepreneur of our time, Elon
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  Musk, had this to say about his time being in the bow of the
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  beast in Washington, DC. Any lessons from your time in
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  Washington, DC? The government is basically
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  unfixable. Elon only.
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  I've heard David's noble efforts in this.
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  It's good to it's, it's good to have talented people in the
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  administration. But at the end of the day, if
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  you look at our national debt, which is insanely high, the
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  interest payments exceed the Defense Department, I guess,
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  sorry, War Department budget and they keep rising.
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  So if AI and robots don't solve our national debt, we're toast.
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  If AI can't save us, we're toast.
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  But you know what? Not even AI can overthrow the
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  powers given to central bankers who can just print money at free
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  will. Simply flooded the system with
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  money. Yes, we did.
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  That's another way to think about it.
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  We did. Where does it come from?
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  Do you just print it? We print it digitally.
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  So we, you know, we as a central bank, we have the ability to
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  create money digitally and we do that by buying treasury bills
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  or, or bonds or other government guaranteed securities and that
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  that actually increases the money supply.
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  We also print actual currency and we distribute that to the
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  Federal Reserve Bank. Here's how reputable analysts
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  like Lynn Alden would describe the problem that we have now,
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  specifically as it relates to interest rates in our government
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  debt problem. She talks about fiscal
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  dominance. And the current era on at the US
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  government's average annual fiscal deficit, like how much
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  the difference between our our taxes and our spending, that's a
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  bigger amount than net new bank loans in a given year and it's
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  even bigger than the sum of net new bank loans and net new
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  corporate bond issuance. So basically, yeah, public
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  sector credit formation is is now bigger than the private
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  sector by, by, you know, several ways of measuring it.
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  And the problem is that when you have over 100% debt to GDP,
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  unlike the 70s where they had 30 something percent debt to GDP,
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  so now you have over 100%. When the Fed raises interest
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  rates to try to slow down bank lending and try to harden the
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  currency, they actually blow out the the fiscal deficit by an
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  even bigger number. Then they slow down net new bank
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  loans. These problems aren't going to
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  play out right away. Here's the long term results of
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  what happens when fiscal dominance runs too long.
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  I have the phrase nothing stops his train, which I, which I, you
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  know, took from Breaking Bad, which is basically that this
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  kind of slower burn default slash def situation is probably
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  going to last longer than people think.
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  And so it doesn't blow up right away, but it also is not fixed
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  anytime soon. And this is what Lynn's
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  recommendation is for the Bitcoin position in your
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  portfolio. For Bitcoin, I think my advice
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  tends to be that there's a lot of numbers that make sense, but
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  zero is probably not the right one.
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  Which is to say, you know, they're people that are more
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  than 100% all in, like they're levered long and there are other
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  people that a three or 5% allocation could make sense.
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  But I think that if you don't own any and if you've never sent
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  a Bitcoin transaction, I, I do think that going forward, that's
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  a, that's a good thing to have done.
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  It's a good thing to have at the very least, you've educated
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  yourself on the functionality of this, but it's a different way
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  of, of doing money. And I do think that that going
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  forward, 0 is not the right number.
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  It could be an amount that's not that important to you, but at
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  least you have skin in the game now and maybe would would pay
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  attention to it going forward. Not zero.
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  That's it. That's the position you should
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  have when considering the world that we're entering into next.
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  And if you have a Bitcoin position that is above zero,
• 10:47
  well, it should always stay above 0 and ideally it shouldn't
• 10:51
  decrease, which is why we work with people like Lennon, the
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• 10:57
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• 11:37
  Don't sell your Bitcoin. And one of the things that's
• 11:40
  coming in the future is more control, more control over
• 11:43
  speech, more control over money, more control over what you can
• 11:46
  spend. And in that world, you're going
• 11:48
  to want to have control over something that you can account
• 11:50
  for. And you can do that with
• 11:52
  Bitcoin, but you want to do that confidently, safely, securely.
• 11:55
  So we suggest that you get a coach, a coach at the Bitcoin
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• 12:00
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• 12:03
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• 12:08
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• 12:12
  Bitcoin. When your mind fully begins to
• 12:14
  understand that it doesn't matter about what Jerome Powell
• 12:17
  says tomorrow or what happens in the next two weeks or even 2
• 12:21
  months, you'll begin to start to allocate more and more of your
• 12:25
  worthless Fiat dollars into this Bitcoin system.
• 12:28
  Because again, it's not just a monetary revolution, it's an
• 12:30
  ideological shift that will begin to happen in your mind.
• 12:33
  Listen to what Adam in Fact Bitcoin OG says about how
• 12:36
  Bitcoin infiltrated his pocketbooks and how it changed
• 12:38
  his behavior over time. I mean, then you just run out of
• 12:41
  money because you're like, well, you know, it started as 10% and
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  now it's 50%. Maybe I should just get off the
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  fence and quit Fiat forever. Yeah, so, so I'm not sure
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  exactly when it happened for me, but there was definitely a point
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  where, you know, I was counting, you know, what's my savings
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  accounts add up to in dollars or EUR or what have you.
• 13:06
  And there was some point where I was like, no, no, what counts as
• 13:09
  how many Bitcoins you have? And I just didn't care about,
• 13:12
  you know, the rest of it at all. So that happens to people.
• 13:16
  And once you start to look at Bitcoin differently in the world
• 13:19
  differently, well, you begin to start to assign the opportunity
• 13:22
  cost to Bitcoin and not just its current price, which is about
• 13:25
  110 to $115,000 a coin. You recognize that that Ferrari
• 13:30
  is 6 Bitcoin or in the future $100 million, according to
• 13:34
  Michael Saylor. I think the best way to get
• 13:37
  superior returns 100 and X type returns if you're an individual
• 13:41
  would be you adopt a bit, you keep your day job and so you,
• 13:45
  you maximize the cash flow you generate via whatever your
• 13:50
  profession is, you're responsible on your, on your
• 13:55
  expenditures. You have to think in the year
• 13:58
  2045, I think of bitcoins worth $13 million.
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  So every Bitcoin that you don't buy is a $13 million cost.
• 14:05
  That Ferrari that you're going to buy is going to cost you like
• 14:09
  6 Bitcoin. And so it's going to be $100
• 14:12
  million Ferrari, right, if you look out 20 years.
• 14:16
  So you have to keep your job. You know, unless you're insanely
• 14:22
  rich, don't splurge on the Ferrari.
• 14:24
  Buy the Buy the six Bitcoin instead.
• 14:27
  That's the opportunity cost when you're thinking long term, when
• 14:30
  you take a 50 to 100 year view or you elevate from a quarterly
• 14:34
  view to a six month view and not just what will happen after the
• 14:38
  Fed FOMC meeting on Wednesday. None of those things matters.
• 14:42
  What do you think about Bitcoin over the long term or are you
• 14:45
  just focused on what some analyst is going to say about
• 14:48
  what's going to happen in the next two to three months?
• 14:50
  One of the ways you can continue to invest in your Bitcoin
• 14:52
  journey is by learning about how the entire ecosystem works.
• 14:55
  And that means the miners, the manufacturers, the people making
• 14:58
  the machines and equipment that protect the Bitcoin network, the
• 15:02
  accountants of the Bitcoin network, the people that write
• 15:04
  the transactions in the blockchain and audit the chain.
• 15:07
  Well, those are miners. And you can learn all about them
• 15:09
  at the largest Bitcoin mining Expo in the world.
• 15:12
  The Mining Disrupt conference is happening in Dallas, TX from
• 15:14
  November 11th through November 13th, and you're not going to
• 15:16
  want to miss it. And if you are going or deciding
• 15:19
  to go, use the promo code Simply Bitcoin and check out to get 20%
• 15:22
  off your tickets. Zoom out, take a longer term
• 15:24
  perspective. Who cares what Jerome Powell
• 15:26
  says tomorrow? We're thinking 50 years, 100
• 15:28
  years. This is Dante Coke with Bitcoin.
• 15:30
  Simply happy stacking.