Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️FED Flips On Massive Scandal! + Stock Market News 25 March 2024

Transcript

⚠️FED Flips On Massive Scandal! + Stock Market News 25 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: PhoenixZan, good morning to you.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: What a day, what a day, what a day.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: The Fed is signaling the flip and giving us the reason for it, which, of course, is well, probably good for most of us, except for a few, but for most of us it's going to be great news.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: We've also got a bunch of key stuff to run through here, which I'll run through the key data We've got Boeing CEO stepping down, we've got investigations through Google and Apple and much, much more.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Whether this is the time to buy the time, to hide the time to freak out the time to, I don't know.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Learn perhaps.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Even so, stick around.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Phoenixzan and Akatu, we very grumpy if I pick her up sitting next to me going.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: I'm grumpy because I've got the air con on First air con day of the year, because it's hot in Hong Kong, which is quite a nice.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Winston brought Felix too.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: He did indeed.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: So let's get cracking, shall we?
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: Shall we get cracking?
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I think we should get cracking.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Let me show my screen with you here.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: One is yes.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow, tuesday evening time, 8 am, 8 pm, even Eastern time I will teach about 500 to a thousand of you how we did these little feats here, which is 126% return on capital employed in 2022 and 105% in 2023.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: And so far this year, we're up something like I don't know what is that on about $30,000, 17% or something like that, and how we basically have a 75% win rate on our trades.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: I would do that in just two hours a week, how it's just three rules and how my golden retriever could do that.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Come and learn from me.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: That's really what I want, because that's how we're going to get you to financial freedom.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: You need the extra income stream.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: You know, someone said to me today I think a man's job is to provide and I actually agree with that and then I said, yeah, but if you only got one income stream, how do you ensure that's going to happen?
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, maybe you got both loads of savings and investments, but most people don't.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: So you need the second income stream, otherwise you're on very, very thin ice if that's your role in life.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: So let's move straight into Papa Powell then.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: And yeah, do, of course, sign up at FelixFrancetLogscom webinar links down below.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: This is where you do it.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Pop your name in the email address and register.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Grab yourself a seat and show up on time, please, because the room has a capacity limit.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: We wouldn't want you to be locked out now, would we?
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: No, papa Powell says this.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg headline out this morning.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: The Fed is ready to support the job market, even if it means lingering inflation.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Hang on, that's an actual flip, isn't it?
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is probably the first day this year that our flip headline was justified Just to be honest there.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: But it does get people to watch.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: What does he mean by that?
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I tell you what he means by that and what the scandals behind it.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Jobs data is the scandal.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Nobody believes it.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows this is a sham.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows they're actually not 3.6 million unemployed in the US, but about 12.6 million unemployed in the US.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: But if you pop that number out there, you wouldn't get elected.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: You wouldn't be able to fly all those illegal immigrants to the US without riots breaking out.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: What's up with that?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: By the way, what is it with the Western world making it easier to show up without a passport than with a passport?
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Seriously, same in Europe, same madness.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I wonder who's making money out of this, that's?
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I think that it's follow the money trail.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: So what does this mean?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Basically, the Fed's going to come out in the next couple of weeks and months and go.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Oh you know what?
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Actually, the labor market is much softer than we thought.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: The first thing they're going to do in May they're going to half Reading, which is a shame, because it was fun, and then, I would imagine it, by June or July, we're going to get rate cuts and they'll be justified on the basis of we have a dual mandate.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: We equally favor high employment and price stability, and because unemployment is rising, we're now going to do something for the little man.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And then he's going to run you through some random statistics about how they care about you, don't?
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: He's just going to go back to a job and private equity, isn't he?
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: That's what he's going to do when he leaves get paid a lot more.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: But this is ultimately why the Sam rule is is that?
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Is it three strikes?
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: What's the Sam rule?
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: It is, isn't it?
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: Sam rule, jobs.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Good old Google is probably going to tell me it's a black man.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: It triggers with a three-month average, unemployment rates climb 0.5% above the lowest three-month average reading from the past year.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Couldn't have put that less clear myself.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: Basically, it's saying unemployment is going up three months running.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: And where has it been triggered?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Well, in California, in Arizona, oregon, washington, I'm pretty good with these American states, aren't I?
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: What about that one?
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: Nt?
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Ouch, ouch, okay, we go back to that one.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma, louisiana, alabama, we did learn states, you see, in Illinois, wisconsin, these are easier for me.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: I've been there.
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: New York, vermont, new Hampshire, massachusetts, no, actually, that was wrong.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: What's ME, bloody hell.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Connecticut, I've been there, new Jersey, I've seen it.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there are a couple I'm obviously struggling with here MT, somebody, maine, oh, yes, of course, maine, Maine's lovely.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: I've been to Maine, maine's, glorious.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Shaps, montana, okay, I would not have gotten that, in all honesty, ever.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: I'm still struggling with the AR.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: What's the AR?
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: A geography class?
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: This morning, us citizens can't name it.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm afraid we didn't get all the set scores.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: When we travel, we tend to move on the east and west coast.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: I've been to Chicago and places like that, alaska, that one's also easy.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: But AR, what's AR?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Arkansas, ah, where good old Bill Clinton was from.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: You should have known that.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Little Rock, arkansas, never been.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: And then there is another one here, wv.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: Oh, sorry, I don't know.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: All right, okay, so I fail in a US geography class.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: You've triggered that.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Anyway, the point here being unemployment in those areas has risen and if you look on the map, a lot of those are the more affluent places that typically vote Democrat, and we wouldn't want that now, would we that they'd swing over to the orange one.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: And therefore I think great cats are in order, so we can appease our you know, pot smoking libertarian Californians, who identify as something unidentifiable it's not all of them, obviously, but just most of them.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: So, basically, this will be the excuse to cut interest rates.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Right, you can say the economy is strong, but we want to protect unemployment.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: I mean employment.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Now, does that mean we should turn bearish or bullish?
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Well, rape cuts for most of the stock market will be a good thing.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: And therefore, what was that?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin, right, west Virginia, our West West Virginia?
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't have gotten that either.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: Sorry, when the cowboys live, All right, thanks, guys.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: You guys are better, better than this at me than me.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Let's try it on European, not countries, but European states.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I would also fail miserably on that one.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Should we turn bearish, there is a theory which is not just a theory, but it's a data backed loveliness, and that is basically when defensive stocks can't spell offensive either, when defensive sectors Rally, what do you do?
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Go hide.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Well, the stock market comes down the water.
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: Defensive sectors it's not defense, no, it's not.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: It's healthcare, consumer staples.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: So these are things that people continue to spend money on in recessions, because consumer staples are stuff you need.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: It's not the fridge, right.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Utilities you're still going to pay for gas and electricity.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: You're real estate you can't really live without a roof.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Well, the Fed thinks you can, but you can't.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: And have they rallied?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Well, no, they are in misery land, right, they haven't gone up at all and therefore keep the party going.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: Very simple, and here, as somebody says, when the defensive stuff starts to lead, that'll be a warning sign.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: The below chart showing defensive stuff continues to lag and so this changes stay bullish, says Ryan Detrick.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: He must be an analyst somewhere, otherwise he wouldn't be on this list.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: So that's good news.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Party keeps going, yay.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: And another reason why is that we're expecting.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So what actually moves stocks in the kind of more medium-longer term?
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: It's basically earnings, profits, expectations, and at the moment, the expectations for profits in 2024 are whopping and the 11% growth in earnings, 13% in 2025, we deliver on that and slightly beat it.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: The world will be a better place for stock investors with large portfolios, and that's good, right.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So we are not really worried about this, because the market is expecting rising profits.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Because we're going to lay lots of people off thanks to AI, and that's how we're going to get fed rate cuts.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Can you see how the whole system is rigged so that those with assets, those with shares and those with lots of money make more money?
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: I think this is true, right.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Companies become more profitable because we're firing all the poor folks, and because we're firing all the poor folks, we got rate cuts, which means our stocks become even more valuable in addition to the additional profit, and therefore, as shareholders, make a killing.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: It's lovely, isn't it?
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: It's the system you live in.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: There isn't really a better system.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, at least I haven't found one.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Communism doesn't seem to work out too well.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Now the market is pricing in a rather rebounded earnings, so that's all good news, isn't it?
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Do you want to see the life market?
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: You care?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: You're like no, not today.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Felix, don't spoil such a glorious day.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: They're a little bit down, nothing dramatic.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I mean a bit of a Google, microsoft meta and so on.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: That's basically this here Apple, google, meta proped by the European Union another socialist endeavor.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: It's not some new digital law.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: Basically, yeah, you might get more fines, you will get more fines, but it doesn't really matter because these guys make so much money they can pay the fines and no one's even going to notice.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: And that's dampening the mood a little.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: This morning, tesla also down 1.1%, just in sympathy.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And what else is on here?
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, boeing CEO stepping down.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Well, somebody had to take the blame right For this total shit show.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, literally I've never seen anything like it.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: Really, the easy fix is just called Palantir Chaps.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Worked for Airbus FILCO Long time, no see.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Indeed, filco was one of our first three viewers, I think.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Appreciate you being here.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: You're studying economics.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, that's entirely useless.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: Not entirely, but it doesn't really teach you how to make money, right.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: It gives you a bit of a vague sort of glossy on the outside understanding of how.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Statistics is a load of BS.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: I did static.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: What did I do?
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Econometrics as well.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: That's like a total, total, real waste of time.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: But you learn that statistics are made up basically Into the MDF or a report of China.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: China is limiting the use of foreign chips, which is interesting, right, so it's going the.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: It's swinging the other direction Power tax.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: I tend not to really talk about stuff like that.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it makes anybody any happier.
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Obviously it's horrible.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: If you watch it and read the insight and the latest, you will be none the wiser, because you're just getting fed propaganda from all sides.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: It's a load of bollocks.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't move on with your life and don't watch the misery.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Here is the orange one.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: He's going to have to hand over a lot of money, right?
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: No-transcript?
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Apparently he's got the money.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Well, the Trump's back, this one here could make him $4 billion, not one Trading.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Quite nicely, as long as the supporters keep buying it.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: The revenue on that business as you can call it that business I think it's about $3 million.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Seriously, income statement they actually have an income statement In your $-$60 million last year.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Allegedly it's $3 million revenue, $0.000.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: Anyway, someone's willing to pay something for it.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: That somebody is the chap who's invested in TikTok.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: Seriously, the guy who's investing in TikTok is massively tied as well to TikTok something like 80% of his wealth.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: He's also a large donor to Trump and therefore, if Trump gets this back going, which this guy is also backing, trump gets the money to fight the lawsuits.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Trump might get elected.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Trump will then veto the TikTok ban and that chap gets to keep his billions.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Welcome to democracy, folks.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Isn't it lovely?
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: Yes, it works exactly like that.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: Anything else that's going on here?
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: No, what's about it really?
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: Shall we just end it here?
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: We're getting home sales data today.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: That's actually quite important.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Durable goods tomorrow on Wednesday nothing on Thursday.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: Jobs data Every Thursday is jobs day, if you hadn't realized.
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: On Friday, the biggie is cool.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Pce price index that is Papa Powell's favorite inflation metric.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: If that comes in a little higher than expected we're expecting 0.3% the market will tumble.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: If it comes in flat or a little lower, the market will take off like a SpaceX ship.