Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 3

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The Favorites - Best Bets NFL Week 3 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: One eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna.
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Speaker 1: One eight seven seven eight hope, N Y, or text
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Speaker 1: eight hundred, eight eight nine, eight nine, one hundred five
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Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler
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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the
1:27
Speaker 1: podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Mollman,
1:31
Speaker 1: chief content officer of the Action Network. I am joined,
1:36
Speaker 1: as I am every episode, by my co host, my companion,
1:40
Speaker 1: my compadre, my bff, professional better time in hunter. Sad
1:49
Speaker 1: it moved so fast. We're already in a week three.
1:51
Speaker 1: I'm trying to have it slow down a little bit.
1:53
Speaker 1: Even this week I was just thinking about I was
1:54
Speaker 1: like man, this is flying by. Already, already almost in
1:57
Speaker 1: the week three. How's this happen? Is that just life
2:00
Speaker 1: or is that just football mode? I can't believe it's
2:03
Speaker 1: week three. Like I looked up at the calendar. I'm
2:05
Speaker 1: like what, it's late September. It's week three of the NFL.
2:09
Speaker 1: I feel like we were just celebrating the beginning, we
2:12
Speaker 1: just got into the start of the year and now
2:15
Speaker 1: we're in week three and every line is cock eyed.
2:19
Speaker 1: Whereas last week everything felt so clear, this week every
2:24
Speaker 1: game feels like a struggle I've been researching and studying
2:29
Speaker 1: and we've made some bets and I still can't wrap
2:32
Speaker 1: my head around half of these games. But you know what, today, Simon,
2:37
Speaker 1: we're going to do our best. We're gonna try to
2:39
Speaker 1: get to our final five. Again, reminder, these are final
2:43
Speaker 1: five as of a Thursday afternoon. Simon and I the contest.
2:48
Speaker 1: We are in the lines lock midweek. We do not
2:52
Speaker 1: have to put our picks in until Sunday at noon.
2:54
Speaker 1: So Simon and I, after we do the show convinced me,
2:57
Speaker 1: which you can watch on the Action Network Youtube, Channe,
3:00
Speaker 1: in all the action network APP and on Action Network Twitter,
3:03
Speaker 1: at twitter, at action network HQ. We do that eleven
3:05
Speaker 1: am eastern on Sunday. We will do that show. Than
3:09
Speaker 1: Simon and I will talk, will make our final five.
3:11
Speaker 1: We will put those in the APP, action network APP.
3:13
Speaker 1: Follow it. Phase Five. We got to do our big
3:16
Speaker 1: balls better the week. Last week it was the New
3:19
Speaker 1: York jets. Look at us. We gotta do some Scootch Roulette,
3:23
Speaker 1: we gotta do some round Robin. But first, before we
3:25
Speaker 1: get to it, let's do shark calls. Hello, WHO's there?
3:33
Speaker 1: I'm talking day maybe. What are the people calling you?
3:42
Speaker 1: Saying this week. I feel like people are just trying
3:44
Speaker 1: to get me down Chack, because I'm just feeling so good.
3:47
Speaker 1: I mean there's Matt Mitchell, knows there's two. There's a
3:49
Speaker 1: few better feelings in that too, and oh feeling just
3:51
Speaker 1: walk around this week to and I feel like Philadelphia
3:53
Speaker 1: especially was a buzzing. I'm feeling good. Me and child
3:56
Speaker 1: have had two back to back winning weeks, obviously way
3:58
Speaker 1: better than we started last last year. So I'm trying
4:02
Speaker 1: to not let the negative to get me down. But Man,
4:05
Speaker 1: I did not think this colts chiefs game would be
4:07
Speaker 1: so split. I thought all the pros would be on
4:10
Speaker 1: the colts. They love the chiefs and I've already seen
4:13
Speaker 1: the stats. I think Evan put out the Evan Abrahams
4:16
Speaker 1: put out the article. It's basically trends. A lot of
4:18
Speaker 1: stuff points to the chief so I get where these
4:20
Speaker 1: these pros are coming from. But then, just like me
4:23
Speaker 1: and you chat, I think a lot of guys were
4:24
Speaker 1: from the other side of like you wanted to grab
4:26
Speaker 1: that seven, you want to grab the six and a half.
4:27
Speaker 1: You wanted to grab the six, now the five. It
4:30
Speaker 1: happens there. I don't see the pros really taken that Um.
4:34
Speaker 1: So it's interesting the books did that because they know,
4:37
Speaker 1: again we already talked about, everyone's teaser is gonna have
4:39
Speaker 1: the chiefs in it. Everyone's bet in the chiefs right like,
4:42
Speaker 1: especially now that it's under six. That's such a key number. Um.
4:46
Speaker 1: Interesting and again one of the more games I'm more
4:48
Speaker 1: excited to watch this weekend because we just we already
4:50
Speaker 1: took a position we don't go back to seven and
4:54
Speaker 1: went to complete opts away again. That's probably more shocking
4:57
Speaker 1: things that happened this week and books are clearly taking
5:01
Speaker 1: a stand. Like some number nerds gonna get fired if
5:03
Speaker 1: the chiefs win this game by twenty one, because the
5:05
Speaker 1: books they're just gonna have everyone in the world having
5:08
Speaker 1: to some teaser and parlays. Everyone's gonna all over the chiefs.
5:10
Speaker 1: So definitely the more interesting calls I got. The next
5:13
Speaker 1: one is they want to stay away chat from the
5:16
Speaker 1: bills Miami Game. I'm with you about loving Miami. We
5:19
Speaker 1: love this spot, divisional home dog man. Could could they
5:23
Speaker 1: not want us to stay away more? Um? So I
5:27
Speaker 1: think that will be one we won't put our contest now.
5:29
Speaker 1: I took it out. Um, just just because there's other
5:32
Speaker 1: games I like more. I think I'm still gonna Bet Miami.
5:35
Speaker 1: But interesting here that pros are really back in this
5:37
Speaker 1: bill's team in this position. I think historically, maybe they're
5:40
Speaker 1: looking at what Josh Allen's done in this position. But Man,
5:44
Speaker 1: I don't I just feel like again. I know people
5:47
Speaker 1: keep rating that the bills beat the defending super bowl
5:50
Speaker 1: champion and then the one seed from the NFC last year,
5:53
Speaker 1: but come on, man, it's like a New Year. I
5:54
Speaker 1: don't know really how much weight I hold to the
5:56
Speaker 1: fact that they dominated those two teams. I am it
5:58
Speaker 1: will be a great test for both team so again
6:01
Speaker 1: talking about the most exciting game this week, I would say,
6:04
Speaker 1: just from a fan perspective, Miami bills for me, for
6:07
Speaker 1: professional bettings perspective, colts and chiefs. And then the one
6:11
Speaker 1: we already talked about and we'll talk about more today, Patriots.
6:15
Speaker 1: The pros love the Patriots. They hit that number big time.
6:18
Speaker 1: Seen it down to two and a half in a
6:19
Speaker 1: lot of books now. Interesting, interesting, interesting. Interesting. I think
6:23
Speaker 1: of all the things again, of all the line movements,
6:26
Speaker 1: those two ones popped out right. The colts and this
6:28
Speaker 1: patriots one shock. They took it off the three. That
6:31
Speaker 1: means they are more than happy for people to keep
6:33
Speaker 1: coming in and taking this ravens number. Um. So I
6:36
Speaker 1: love that. At three, I mean, we'll talk about it
6:37
Speaker 1: if it's doing happen the contest, I don't feel as
6:39
Speaker 1: great because again we got burned with Carolina Panthers last week.
6:42
Speaker 1: We both loved them, especially at three. We took it
6:45
Speaker 1: a two and a half. The number landed on three.
6:47
Speaker 1: So again that one we'll have to think about for
6:48
Speaker 1: contests of its two and a half. But Patriots, I
6:51
Speaker 1: just feels like again a huge pros versus show's game.
6:54
Speaker 1: A bunch of really sharp groups have hit that number
6:56
Speaker 1: and you've seen the result. It's drop down to split
6:58
Speaker 1: all this money and all the tickets coming the ravens.
7:00
Speaker 1: So definitely those three games were the most talked about
7:03
Speaker 1: to me for the last two days. Two things. Um,
7:08
Speaker 1: on the colts, I'm shot the number moved to five
7:12
Speaker 1: and a half. That tells me that, even though you're
7:15
Speaker 1: getting sort of whispers on both sides, that tells me
7:19
Speaker 1: the majority of the professionals like the colts at seven.
7:22
Speaker 1: They like the colts at six and a half, they
7:25
Speaker 1: like the colts at six, no matter what the sample
7:28
Speaker 1: size is saying about mahomes. In this situation there's there's
7:33
Speaker 1: more than enough data, historical data, to bet the other side,
7:39
Speaker 1: both in a micro point of view. On Andy Reid.
7:42
Speaker 1: He's actually ah he's actually under five hundred against the
7:47
Speaker 1: spread when he's on ten days of rest. So in
7:52
Speaker 1: this scenario, everyone always talks about Andy Reid being the
7:56
Speaker 1: guy who gained plans so well with a bye week.
8:00
Speaker 1: This is extra rest, but it's not a bye week.
8:02
Speaker 1: He's under five dred against the spread in these Thursday Games,
8:05
Speaker 1: ten day, ten day windows scenarios number one, number two,
8:09
Speaker 1: there's so much more data since two thousand ten from
8:12
Speaker 1: Evan Abrahams, director of Research Action Network. When this teams
8:16
Speaker 1: have gone fifty seven, forty one and one against the spread.
8:20
Speaker 1: In Week three, when they face a team that is
8:22
Speaker 1: not winless, one against the spread, sixty eight. Okay, since
8:31
Speaker 1: two thousand ten winless teams, both straight up and against
8:36
Speaker 1: the spread, a thirty nine and twenty four against spreading.
8:39
Speaker 1: Week three again, Indianapolis falls into both of those. If
8:45
Speaker 1: you got the colds, plus seven, and that was available
8:48
Speaker 1: for a hot minute. If you've got the cold, six
8:51
Speaker 1: and a half, I'd still feel good about this. Five
8:53
Speaker 1: and a half, you're starting to fall into that I
8:56
Speaker 1: don't have the best of the number scenario anymore, and
9:00
Speaker 1: that's when the percentages start to work against you. Um.
9:03
Speaker 1: So I can understand why people wouldn't want to bet
9:06
Speaker 1: the cults at five and a half, but I'm very
9:08
Speaker 1: comfortable with the cult of plus seven. Yeah, and again
9:11
Speaker 1: we I felt like we both kind of agreed that
9:13
Speaker 1: was gonna be automatically kind of locked in at seven,
9:16
Speaker 1: six and a half. For us, we just we have
9:18
Speaker 1: to play this number. We don't honestly have a choice.
9:21
Speaker 1: What you guys all do have a choice now because
9:22
Speaker 1: it is five and a half. We talked that's a
9:24
Speaker 1: key number. Like if you got the seven, you're trying
9:27
Speaker 1: to be a genius and hit that middle. Can't faulter.
9:29
Speaker 1: You literally are getting a point and a half of
9:31
Speaker 1: lineman through two key numbers of six and a half
9:34
Speaker 1: and six. So I get the play of why guys
9:37
Speaker 1: like the Kansas City on the other side, but to
9:39
Speaker 1: me I feel like everything me and Chad talked about sound.
9:41
Speaker 1: With the cults, are getting back two major guys from injury,
9:43
Speaker 1: Leonard and Pittman, Pittman, and why receiver Leonards are a Linebacker,
9:47
Speaker 1: and it's two guys that are crucial to their teams.
9:50
Speaker 1: Like do we think that they're better than the Jaguars?
9:54
Speaker 1: I still can't think of Jaguars would have beat him
9:56
Speaker 1: last week. So I think there are twenty four to
9:58
Speaker 1: nothing bad. No, that was just all their red zone
10:01
Speaker 1: trips were just a complete failure in that Ryan he
10:04
Speaker 1: just looked just like he didn't know where to go
10:06
Speaker 1: with the ball because again, hedn't Pittman. So this week
10:08
Speaker 1: I just think the chiefs, we've seen this kind of
10:11
Speaker 1: position before. They're playing against a team that we don't
10:14
Speaker 1: know if. We don't care if the colts win, right,
10:16
Speaker 1: I mean we probably arguing to put them in the
10:17
Speaker 1: money line around Robin, but just in this position against
10:21
Speaker 1: his chiefs team, we've seen teams that are run dominant
10:24
Speaker 1: had success against this chief's team and just through two
10:27
Speaker 1: weeks I've seen teams pick up big gains on the
10:30
Speaker 1: ground against his chiefs team. So to me, I know
10:32
Speaker 1: it's a lot to bank on, but I just think,
10:34
Speaker 1: like we talked about, people are under rating this cold's team,
10:37
Speaker 1: but the numbers out five and a half. Now it's
10:40
Speaker 1: it's hard for me chat now tell you guys to
10:41
Speaker 1: take it where. I looked even twenty four hours after
10:44
Speaker 1: we did our show and we talked about that one
10:46
Speaker 1: book hanging that seven. That seven was still there twenty
10:48
Speaker 1: four hours later. So the value was there. It was
10:51
Speaker 1: sitting there. It's just unfortunate that it dropped so heavily
10:54
Speaker 1: before the week to five and a half. Like it's
10:56
Speaker 1: just hard to give that out when we're sitting on
10:58
Speaker 1: six and a half and seven. And it also it
11:00
Speaker 1: dropped like in the last twelve hours. It was a
11:02
Speaker 1: six and a half into late into Wednesday night. So, uh,
11:07
Speaker 1: the other game you talked about built dolphins. Look, I
11:11
Speaker 1: think this is almost one of those things where it's
11:13
Speaker 1: shaping up. The bills have been so dominant and the
11:16
Speaker 1: bills historically, if the bills win, they cover. If otherwise
11:23
Speaker 1: bet the dolphins on the money line. It almost feels
11:25
Speaker 1: like you should do that right then. Obviously you can
11:29
Speaker 1: play the six and a half because that's the right
11:32
Speaker 1: number to play, but the bills have been one of
11:36
Speaker 1: those teams that are covering juggernauts and if they're gonna win,
11:40
Speaker 1: they're gonna dominate and again we're all gonna be on
11:44
Speaker 1: the over. Like I would love the company and be
11:46
Speaker 1: that guy to like no bet this under. It's just
11:48
Speaker 1: I love both these offenses and I've see weaknesses on
11:51
Speaker 1: both defenses. Again, the bills have had injuries to their secondary.
11:55
Speaker 1: Zavian Howard popped up with the injury list this week
11:57
Speaker 1: and again if he's got a groin injury. You know
12:00
Speaker 1: I got Gabe Davis coming back to join Stefon Diggs
12:03
Speaker 1: to me again. We can all talk about one two COMBOS.
12:06
Speaker 1: I've even coming this year. I loveday Davis, that one
12:08
Speaker 1: to Combo Him and digs with Alan like scrambled mode.
12:12
Speaker 1: It's just it's uncoverable, especially if you have your number
12:15
Speaker 1: one corner hasn't a pulled groin. So yeah, something to
12:18
Speaker 1: keep your eye on Um. But I just there's other
12:20
Speaker 1: games like I can see it has in the contest.
12:22
Speaker 1: The fact that I already heard a couple of pros
12:24
Speaker 1: really come in and really vouch for this bill's team.
12:27
Speaker 1: Now we saw the number jump from four and a
12:29
Speaker 1: half the five and a half to six and a half.
12:31
Speaker 1: That's pro money. That's a real groups making real noise
12:33
Speaker 1: on this bill's team. So it's just hard for us
12:35
Speaker 1: to kind of go against that. Where in this position
12:38
Speaker 1: we always take Miami. It's just like a home divisional dog,
12:41
Speaker 1: and a lot of the trends back it up. Like
12:43
Speaker 1: in this position, a team like the bills, who have, think,
12:47
Speaker 1: won both games by over twenty points, they don't fare
12:51
Speaker 1: well in week three. They usually do not cover. So again,
12:54
Speaker 1: Chad and are already talking. Now you're gonna get an
12:55
Speaker 1: inflated line of the bills every week just because they're
12:58
Speaker 1: the most publicly favorite team right now. He's got a
13:01
Speaker 1: good groin injury. Groin injury. Shout out heres. You know,
13:09
Speaker 1: I got a phone call today. I'm a teenagers, saying
13:11
Speaker 1: that old squares like me he shouldn't be doing the sports. Well,
13:15
Speaker 1: Quirky gets my guy like he, who knows what it's
13:19
Speaker 1: like to heaven grown. Yeah, we gotta think about who
13:28
Speaker 1: we're putting in our final five here. We love the
13:31
Speaker 1: colts at six and a half or seven. If we
13:33
Speaker 1: open it up and it's five and a half, I
13:34
Speaker 1: don't know if I can get down on that exactly. Uh.
13:38
Speaker 1: We love the Jags a plus seven. Yeah, no brainer. Seven,
13:41
Speaker 1: seven a half. Six and a half. I saw chefter
13:44
Speaker 1: put it out. He's Day to day right now, Herbert.
13:47
Speaker 1: Then you see Winston might not even play. They're saying
13:49
Speaker 1: expect to see Andy Dalton for the saints team. They
13:52
Speaker 1: pretty much had the same injury. If anything, herberts might
13:55
Speaker 1: might be a little worse because I don't think he's
13:56
Speaker 1: taking the drugs like Winston. Seemed like he'd steaken. Uh Again, Herbert,
14:02
Speaker 1: I love You's trying to tough it out, but that's
14:04
Speaker 1: a real serious injury. They said he is four crack
14:07
Speaker 1: cartilage ribs. I think that's code for four cracked ribs.
14:10
Speaker 1: Like yeah, like, that's what that pretty much means. So
14:13
Speaker 1: to me I love the position right again. Weird number.
14:16
Speaker 1: The fact that it hasn't moved in the public and
14:18
Speaker 1: the professionals. I've taken a seven a little interesting. In
14:21
Speaker 1: the books haven't moved it. I guess that's just the
14:23
Speaker 1: respect to Herbert. But yeah, I feel like we're in
14:25
Speaker 1: a great position. They're getting seven and a half, seven
14:27
Speaker 1: or six and a half with the Jacks here. So, UH,
14:32
Speaker 1: another game. That I think is fascinating that we should
14:35
Speaker 1: talk about Tampa Bay and Green Bay. We love this.
14:40
Speaker 1: When it was Tampa Bay and minus two. It's down
14:44
Speaker 1: to minus one. Yeah, Mike Emmons got suspended. Yeah, but
14:50
Speaker 1: he was out when we talked about it the other
14:53
Speaker 1: he appealed. I thought he was gonna win, honestly, the
14:54
Speaker 1: appeal because again, I don't know, it didn't seem like that.
14:58
Speaker 1: They think you didn't throw punches. He just kind of
15:00
Speaker 1: took a cheap shop pushing the guy. But I didn't.
15:03
Speaker 1: I I bet at bucks minus too, assuming he'd be
15:06
Speaker 1: out completely comfortable. I bet bucks minus two and a half. Jeff,
15:10
Speaker 1: I just feel like, what are we looking at here?
15:13
Speaker 1: We've got two teams that are essentially the same. Good quarterbacks,
15:18
Speaker 1: no receivers. So then which team has the better defense,
15:21
Speaker 1: and which team is at home and which team has
15:24
Speaker 1: Tom Brady? Like, what am I missing here that people
15:28
Speaker 1: all of a sudden have a lot of faith in
15:30
Speaker 1: the packers? Mike Evans? Is that much of a difference
15:33
Speaker 1: maker there? Are they so? Are they so enamored with
15:37
Speaker 1: what the packers did against a terrible bears team that
15:40
Speaker 1: everybody was overvaluing except for you and me, and what
15:43
Speaker 1: the bucks did against a really good saints team that
15:46
Speaker 1: is sound defensively? In his spot where they always play badly. Like,
15:51
Speaker 1: what are we missing here? I kind of want this
15:54
Speaker 1: game to get to pick so I can bet the
15:56
Speaker 1: bucks again. It could be teaser protect and right the
16:00
Speaker 1: one and a half was hanging up there. That means
16:02
Speaker 1: everyone in the world was grabbing the seven a half
16:03
Speaker 1: in their teasers. Um, to me, it's just nothing's changed.
16:06
Speaker 1: Like I still keep betting this number. I love everything
16:10
Speaker 1: Tampa does well against everything that is a weakness to
16:12
Speaker 1: green back Green Bay. Right now they're two living receivers.
16:15
Speaker 1: They're one and two. Number two target share receivers is
16:18
Speaker 1: a j dillon and Jones, two running backs. Okay, I'm
16:23
Speaker 1: going against a team that has arguably the best, some
16:26
Speaker 1: of the best linebacking corps and some the quickest D
16:28
Speaker 1: ns in football on Tampa. Um, I just love the
16:31
Speaker 1: scheme too. Of Brady has been running the ball. He's
16:34
Speaker 1: trying to get four net involved. They could not run
16:36
Speaker 1: the ball at all against the saints. That did not
16:39
Speaker 1: deter them at all. They just kept running it. The
16:41
Speaker 1: bears are picking up chunks and chunks of yards running
16:44
Speaker 1: against the Green Bay team. Sam was U Minnesota Vikings.
16:48
Speaker 1: So again it's about matchup and you can factor into historically,
16:54
Speaker 1: Rogers and Florida it's always bad right. We've we've looked
16:57
Speaker 1: at it. I think he is in his career just
17:00
Speaker 1: against Tampa is one in three. And think about all
17:02
Speaker 1: those bad teams he played against the mid two thousands.
17:05
Speaker 1: Still it just has not performed well when he goes
17:07
Speaker 1: down there. So nothing's changed. I mean, I'm not shocked.
17:10
Speaker 1: I honestly the publics come in again another offensive linement
17:13
Speaker 1: for the Tampa as well. Guy I added to the
17:15
Speaker 1: four week I r. So it's like they just keep
17:17
Speaker 1: adding guys from that oldligned. People are gonna see that.
17:20
Speaker 1: Like I get it. Um maybe I'm not gonna make this,
17:24
Speaker 1: you know, one of my bigger bets of the week,
17:25
Speaker 1: but I can still see us maybe getting this one
17:27
Speaker 1: in the contest because it's just a really nice spot
17:29
Speaker 1: for this Tampa team. First home game against Green Bay
17:32
Speaker 1: after a divisional win on the road and just against
17:35
Speaker 1: a defense they're they're not gonna face really this year.
17:38
Speaker 1: This will probably one of the best defenses they'll play
17:39
Speaker 1: all year in Green Bay, honestly, just because we've seen
17:43
Speaker 1: their division. It's just bears don't have a great defensive
17:45
Speaker 1: lines and have a great defense and the Vikings really
17:47
Speaker 1: don't either. So to me this is a nice position
17:49
Speaker 1: of being getting Tampa, where I think people are just
17:51
Speaker 1: doubting on him because the injuries, where it's just they're
17:53
Speaker 1: not it's not that big of a deal, like Julio
17:55
Speaker 1: is gonna be back. I just think they're gonna be
17:57
Speaker 1: able to survive in advance. In this kind of matchup,
17:59
Speaker 1: it's me a fight, but to me I think we're
18:02
Speaker 1: getting great value on this Tampa team. I have them
18:05
Speaker 1: in the contest right now. I have them. I would
18:08
Speaker 1: say that we have two teams, the bucks and the Jags,
18:14
Speaker 1: where the number is going to be where we wanted
18:16
Speaker 1: to be. So that's sort of what I'm going with.
18:21
Speaker 1: And then the colts were waiting to see. Um. Let's
18:26
Speaker 1: talk about the panthers for a second. You just mentioned
18:28
Speaker 1: Jamis Matt Rule, who I've been a big believer in.
18:33
Speaker 1: Maybe terrible. So I'm a little frustrated, but it feels
18:40
Speaker 1: like the right spot. Again. We're owing two in the panthers.
18:44
Speaker 1: Either we're seeing something nobody else is seeing or we're
18:48
Speaker 1: suckers and we believe we're smarter than everybody else. Throwing
18:53
Speaker 1: a lot of weeds in their chat. This is your disaster.
18:56
Speaker 1: You're the guy coming to the season that was high
18:57
Speaker 1: on them. I'm just have been getting sucked and by
19:00
Speaker 1: your love. He's two and fourteen. A Ts his last sixteen. Um,
19:04
Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't care what you were gonna say.
19:07
Speaker 1: There's no world we put this in. I don't care
19:09
Speaker 1: if this never got the four and a half. I'll
19:11
Speaker 1: bet caroline at three. Happy to take, especially against an
19:13
Speaker 1: overrated saints team. But no, no way this gets into
19:17
Speaker 1: my contest. I'm sick of backing and losing money on Baker. Wow,
19:21
Speaker 1: no way it gets into the contest. Even no, because
19:23
Speaker 1: if we're gonnat a ship numbers, they're gonna GI US
19:25
Speaker 1: two and a half again. I'm just I'm just not
19:27
Speaker 1: doing it with Baker at two and a half. Like,
19:28
Speaker 1: give me the three and a half and I'll think
19:30
Speaker 1: about it. At two and a half to zero chance,
19:33
Speaker 1: all right, well, I feel like Um that. Just give
19:38
Speaker 1: up on them, Chad. They're they're no good to you.
19:39
Speaker 1: They keep screwing you. You know what, they give me
19:42
Speaker 1: nothing in return. I keep loving them, they keep hurting me.
19:46
Speaker 1: This is no good. This is like like when Jessica
19:49
Speaker 1: Segal broke up with me when I was at junior
19:52
Speaker 1: in high school. We can't see good God a bad
20:01
Speaker 1: God's only we just I just love that name too,
20:14
Speaker 1: because she sounds like she'd be good looking. She beautiful.
20:19
Speaker 1: Crush me Um. All right. Well, then, they're out. The
20:24
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Speaker 1: gambler dot net in West Virginia. So the other team
22:15
Speaker 1: that was on our list. I haven't gone back to
22:17
Speaker 1: the Patriots yet. I want to save that one holts
22:20
Speaker 1: is sort of in there, but we got to see
22:23
Speaker 1: the number vikes minus six. It's like I got a
22:27
Speaker 1: lot of back and forth on this one to not
22:29
Speaker 1: so much for mother pros, but just just in daily
22:32
Speaker 1: life and social media. Of like I get it again.
22:36
Speaker 1: We already talked with the lines. Offense looks incredible like
22:39
Speaker 1: but the hardest party is they've had two games at home.
22:42
Speaker 1: Now you're going on our road against the Minnesota and
22:44
Speaker 1: the historically their defense placed so well at that one
22:47
Speaker 1: pm slot with that crowd noise. We have to fact
22:50
Speaker 1: out it in. So it's not shocking that tons of
22:53
Speaker 1: public money is coming in after a big fade, you know,
22:55
Speaker 1: of Kirk. Like they lost money on Kirk on Monday
22:58
Speaker 1: night and now they just hate him. But X and
23:00
Speaker 1: knows wise. Kind of scary like this. This line's team.
23:04
Speaker 1: I talked coming to the season. I had them great
23:05
Speaker 1: as my second offensive line or third offensive line. They've
23:09
Speaker 1: played that out. They've been absolutely dominant in the trenches
23:12
Speaker 1: their offensive line. Um, so I get what people are saying.
23:16
Speaker 1: Right this is a huge number for Kirk and this
23:18
Speaker 1: offense to be favored by against a team that puts
23:22
Speaker 1: up points. Um, I agree six is a lot. I'm
23:27
Speaker 1: seeing some five and a halfs out there. So clearly
23:29
Speaker 1: the pros are coming in on the lines as well.
23:31
Speaker 1: So I probably will, probably will end up wavering on
23:34
Speaker 1: this one, being talked off of it, but I still
23:36
Speaker 1: believe this is a good spot to take. Kirk and
23:38
Speaker 1: the fact that the lines again, they've looked well against
23:42
Speaker 1: an eagles team and a Washington team. I don't know,
23:45
Speaker 1: I thought Minnesota had the opportunities but they kind of
23:47
Speaker 1: blew it. And what would this number have been if
23:49
Speaker 1: you say that Minnesota did lose just by three? Would
23:52
Speaker 1: this still be sitting at seven? And the public will
23:54
Speaker 1: kind of be back in on the Minn a little bit,
23:56
Speaker 1: most likely. So I just had to take the value
23:58
Speaker 1: where it comes and the lines team again, big believer
24:02
Speaker 1: in them. We already talked about this is kind of
24:05
Speaker 1: their moment in this division. Like you want to win
24:08
Speaker 1: this division or you know, shock people make the playoffs,
24:12
Speaker 1: you gotta go to Minnesota Win this game. I just
24:14
Speaker 1: I can't see how they do it unless jared golf
24:17
Speaker 1: really has a moment again on the road with that
24:20
Speaker 1: crowd noise. I just can't see it happening. So here's
24:23
Speaker 1: our problem right now. There's a lot of games we're
24:26
Speaker 1: not feeling very confident about. We're like five games in Chad,
24:31
Speaker 1: but I'm looking at the list of games that we
24:34
Speaker 1: sort of pinpointed. The Panthers was on the list, the
24:37
Speaker 1: Vikings was on the list, the dolphins was on the list,
24:40
Speaker 1: all games that we just talked ourselves out of. The jags.
24:43
Speaker 1: We like the bucks, we like the Falcons, we liked
24:48
Speaker 1: let's talk about it. Oh, dude, that numbers down to one. Yeah,
24:52
Speaker 1: you know why? The Silent Hawaiian Chad. You gotta believe
24:55
Speaker 1: in Marcus Mariota. I tried convincing you knows two you
24:59
Speaker 1: just wouldn't bite listen to I realize something here about
25:01
Speaker 1: this guy, the silent Hawaiian. Okay, this man, he's a
25:05
Speaker 1: kind of friend. He texted you, he says come over.
25:07
Speaker 1: You head over to his house. You get there, it's
25:09
Speaker 1: eight thirty o'clock at night. All the lights are off right.
25:11
Speaker 1: You walk in, Hey Marcus, you hear nothing. You keep walking.
25:15
Speaker 1: All of a sudden you see a flicker of a
25:16
Speaker 1: TV light in the back room. You walk back there.
25:19
Speaker 1: What do you find? Mariotta with a TV on muted
25:22
Speaker 1: TV not's saying a word, just sitting there watching in
25:25
Speaker 1: silence game film. This guy is a work aholic. Doesn't
25:29
Speaker 1: speak much, but everything you hear he's the ultimate leader,
25:32
Speaker 1: by in brother by hate on this Atlanta team. I
25:35
Speaker 1: can't get over a hype time about this matchup. See,
25:37
Speaker 1: how's the worst? This this? If we'RE NOT gonna take
25:41
Speaker 1: Atlanta here, we're frauds. If we don't take them back
25:44
Speaker 1: them to beat the worst team of football, we're frauds.
25:47
Speaker 1: We'd have to take Atlanta here. I don't know what
25:49
Speaker 1: else to do. I mean this number is basically flipped. Yeah,
25:53
Speaker 1: it's a ship number. I'M NOT gonna lie to you,
25:55
Speaker 1: but we're it's like we talked about earlier. You don't
25:57
Speaker 1: want to take it because it was like literally a
25:59
Speaker 1: pick that they have to win, and I've I've come
26:02
Speaker 1: to terms with it. I'm back in Atlanta to win
26:04
Speaker 1: this game against Seattle. I do. I think Seattle is
26:06
Speaker 1: the worst team in football and like again them in
26:09
Speaker 1: the bears. I talked coming to you. I just had
26:10
Speaker 1: them the lowest rated. I gotta put my money in
26:13
Speaker 1: my mouth is. It's like Atlanta. I'm with you. I
26:16
Speaker 1: feel disgusting doing this. This is where they always burn us.
26:19
Speaker 1: I gotta do it, like I just believe in this
26:21
Speaker 1: offensive scheme and I like what they can do against
26:23
Speaker 1: the Seattle run defense. So we're thinking about them for
26:28
Speaker 1: the contest. We're putting them back in. Yeah, again, there's
26:31
Speaker 1: gonna be a couple like you're gonna hate that. I've
26:32
Speaker 1: kind of flipped on where it's like I just feel
26:35
Speaker 1: like I can't put the professional I gotta take the
26:37
Speaker 1: professional part. I have it where it's like, what do
26:40
Speaker 1: the numbers say and what have we seen so far
26:42
Speaker 1: this season? Um, because some of these teams, again, I
26:45
Speaker 1: don't want to react, a week one and week two
26:48
Speaker 1: a lot of these teams weaknesses really popped out and
26:50
Speaker 1: it's like, I don't think it's how to think you
26:51
Speaker 1: can fix in one week. You kind of have to
26:53
Speaker 1: take advantage of it here early on. So we'll put
26:55
Speaker 1: the Falcons in. So right now, here's what's amazing. You
26:59
Speaker 1: know how I feel about a F C south and
27:02
Speaker 1: NFC south, and I feel like every single week we're
27:05
Speaker 1: betting a F C south and NFC south. Right now,
27:07
Speaker 1: the Games we like the most. Right now, the Games
27:10
Speaker 1: were like the most bucks jags Falcons and hopefully the colts.
27:17
Speaker 1: Hopefully the Colts at Oh and two against Patrick Mahomes.
27:20
Speaker 1: We're praying we can get the number that we want
27:23
Speaker 1: on the colts because we think we're so fucking smart. Simon.
27:28
Speaker 1: It's a disgusting life Chab, but this is where the
27:30
Speaker 1: value is, these teams that no one cares about. All
27:32
Speaker 1: right then, let me let me throw something out at you.
27:37
Speaker 1: New York football giants at home almost a pick right now.
27:44
Speaker 1: I know it feels like a no brainer. We take
27:47
Speaker 1: fading Cooper Rush on the road after you just one
27:50
Speaker 1: at home. I'm with you. I hate it, though. It
27:53
Speaker 1: just feels like all the guys I talked to they
27:55
Speaker 1: like this cowboys defense. I just think that's the big
27:57
Speaker 1: advantage in this game. It's cowboys defense to look like
28:00
Speaker 1: world beaters through two weeks against the bucks team and
28:03
Speaker 1: then the Bengals last week. I don't know, I felt
28:06
Speaker 1: like I really love the giants and we talked about
28:08
Speaker 1: it on Tuesday and Um again the numbers back it
28:11
Speaker 1: up where it's like, yeah, you're getting a really good
28:13
Speaker 1: value play and you might be able to get them
28:15
Speaker 1: as a dog come Monday night again, if the public
28:17
Speaker 1: keeps smashing this Green Bay team, I mean cowboys team.
28:21
Speaker 1: Why wouldn't they move the line? I mean the book
28:23
Speaker 1: is more than happy to let people pouring the money
28:25
Speaker 1: here on a road, road divisional favorite. So interesting line.
28:29
Speaker 1: I'm with you. Like say we could get it at one,
28:33
Speaker 1: maybe minus one and a half. I would take it.
28:36
Speaker 1: But again there's just other games in the dock I
28:37
Speaker 1: like a little more than this one, where again it's
28:41
Speaker 1: my blind spot. This season. Me Chad talked about it.
28:43
Speaker 1: I I was dead wrong about this giants team and
28:46
Speaker 1: I'm over two against them and they're two and oh
28:49
Speaker 1: straight up in a t s. So we'll keep an
28:51
Speaker 1: eye on the giants. We've both been feeling that way.
28:54
Speaker 1: I got one more for you. Actually, why don't you go?
28:57
Speaker 1: You go because, like everything I look at, is Ross
29:00
Speaker 1: and there's reasons to not do it. So you make
29:03
Speaker 1: make a make a suggestion. I have a bunch of
29:06
Speaker 1: lines I love this week, but it's scary R I'm
29:08
Speaker 1: on a lot of public sides where it feels like
29:10
Speaker 1: I'm walking into it. The biggest one is that forty
29:12
Speaker 1: niners game and again the broncos. It's more about me
29:17
Speaker 1: fading their head coach and Russ that it is so
29:20
Speaker 1: much playing the spot, where like usually always be taking
29:23
Speaker 1: the broncos. Here a team that's somebody being talked about
29:25
Speaker 1: on like the view about how stupid their head coach is.
29:28
Speaker 1: Like that's usually we go against everyone when they're getting
29:32
Speaker 1: national attention. But the more I look into this team
29:36
Speaker 1: they just seem like an absolute train wreck. And again,
29:39
Speaker 1: I don't worry people. I'M gonna give Chad tons of
29:41
Speaker 1: ship later in the season if Russ Wilson's really bad,
29:44
Speaker 1: because your high horse for your Russell Wilson take was
29:47
Speaker 1: unbelievable this summer. So I'm saving it. Don't worry people,
29:51
Speaker 1: I just I can't do it after two weeks. But
29:54
Speaker 1: I don't really understand what's happened. I didn't understand this
29:56
Speaker 1: line when it opened. It's kind of the same thing
29:58
Speaker 1: where I looked at the coltslane right and then winger
30:00
Speaker 1: line I was like, okay, I do see where they're
30:02
Speaker 1: coming from, where the books are doing here, like we're
30:04
Speaker 1: overvaluing these teams. I do not think we're overvaluing this
30:07
Speaker 1: four Nintis team. Again, maybe it's because it's a tray
30:10
Speaker 1: lands line, who knows? But with Jimmy. It does feel
30:13
Speaker 1: different where I know exactly what I'm getting on this offense.
30:16
Speaker 1: I know exactly what the defense can do right again,
30:19
Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in football. We knew that
30:20
Speaker 1: coming into this year. Dominant through two weeks. Now they
30:23
Speaker 1: playing against a team that's just been dysfunctional against Seattle
30:26
Speaker 1: in Houston. If this was week eight, maybe I'd get benefited.
30:29
Speaker 1: Doubt to the broncos because they've had weeks to work
30:31
Speaker 1: on it. It doesn't feel that way. It feels like
30:34
Speaker 1: it's a quick turnaround here. Now they're playing a team
30:37
Speaker 1: that just knows exactly they are, where the Broncos are
30:39
Speaker 1: still trying to figure out in this head coach doesn't
30:41
Speaker 1: know how to manage games like it's just again I'll
30:45
Speaker 1: be on a public game with all the other with
30:47
Speaker 1: everyone been on Sunday night. I hating in that position,
30:50
Speaker 1: but I think they got one wrong here. I think
30:52
Speaker 1: the books hung a bad line and they didn't account
30:54
Speaker 1: for Jimmy g coming in and just everything points is
30:57
Speaker 1: four owners team. I like what they can do defensive
30:59
Speaker 1: against the dumb very and offensively I like the weapons
31:01
Speaker 1: they have the counter. A Denver defense that just doesn't
31:04
Speaker 1: look that good two weeks into the season. Also, don't
31:07
Speaker 1: forget Kyle Shanahan. He's actually better on the road than
31:11
Speaker 1: he is at home. Yeah, yeah, I mean again. I
31:14
Speaker 1: try to look at his record because I know he's
31:16
Speaker 1: a blow uh five coach. I know I know the
31:20
Speaker 1: stuff back in it and I'm sure in primetime it's
31:22
Speaker 1: no better. But I know for a fact that you're
31:24
Speaker 1: talking a MOUs true, he's historically been better on the
31:26
Speaker 1: road than he has been at home. And we also
31:30
Speaker 1: know that I have a in the same way that
31:33
Speaker 1: I have a irrational love for an irrational love for
31:37
Speaker 1: the panthers and irrational love for Kyle Shanahan. It wavered, though.
31:42
Speaker 1: I remember wavered a little bit last year and the
31:45
Speaker 1: Fournai were kind of the dumps and people are talking
31:47
Speaker 1: about we both agreed, though, we would give up everything
31:49
Speaker 1: that happened as our head coach. So have you seen
31:51
Speaker 1: him waiver completely there? But we were you. You said,
31:53
Speaker 1: do you think he should be fired, and I was
31:55
Speaker 1: like no, you'd be picked up in literally one minute. Listen,
31:58
Speaker 1: as my good friend Dave X is right now, the
32:03
Speaker 1: three teams that the people who produced this podcast every
32:08
Speaker 1: week root for the bills, the Eagles and the bears
32:13
Speaker 1: all in first place. Enjoy this moment. Chat enjoy it.
32:18
Speaker 1: Could be it could be it for us. All right.
32:21
Speaker 1: So I'm putting the niners in right now. The niners
32:24
Speaker 1: are one and a half point favorites, uh, against the
32:28
Speaker 1: Denver broncos. Um again, if someone fills a pillow case
32:33
Speaker 1: full of bars of stoups and beats the crap out
32:35
Speaker 1: of me to take not take that, I won't take it.
32:37
Speaker 1: But for right now I just it feels really hard
32:40
Speaker 1: that that someone's gonna talk to me about taking this
32:41
Speaker 1: for downers and I just think they're getting the hung
32:43
Speaker 1: a ship number and we're getting a good line. It
32:45
Speaker 1: is strange. Let me scroll all the way down here.
32:49
Speaker 1: Hold on, I want to see what what the money
32:53
Speaker 1: is doing. The public wow of the money right now
32:59
Speaker 1: is on the forty niners. Yeah, so, I mean that's
33:01
Speaker 1: the fear. Like I feel like I'm walking into it,
33:03
Speaker 1: but it's just it just feels like it's such a
33:06
Speaker 1: bad number, like the look ahead was only two, was
33:08
Speaker 1: two and a half again it slipped three and a half.
33:11
Speaker 1: For me, that's good reason. Like the broncos are not
33:14
Speaker 1: what people envisioned coming to the season. Yeah, me and
33:17
Speaker 1: Ted talked all summer. Who the hell, where the Bronco
33:19
Speaker 1: was be getting all that Super Bowl money? m VP
33:22
Speaker 1: MONEY TO RUSS? It's like these are just unproven factors.
33:25
Speaker 1: And the coach that hasn't been a play car since,
33:28
Speaker 1: or maybe it was even worse, and he's looked like
33:31
Speaker 1: a disaster two weeks in, just an absolute disaster. Zero
33:34
Speaker 1: touchdowns on the red zone. Zero. All right, who else
33:38
Speaker 1: you want to throw out there? I mean, we're gonna
33:40
Speaker 1: get to the big balls, better the week or what?
33:42
Speaker 1: Let's do it. It's time for the big ball. Better
33:49
Speaker 1: the week. People already knew. Soon as his number came out.
33:53
Speaker 1: People thought it was in the colts, which I wanted
33:55
Speaker 1: to but the number win against us. It's the Patriots.
33:59
Speaker 1: They get three, get two and a half. You just
34:01
Speaker 1: take it down to a pick. This is just a
34:03
Speaker 1: game that bill always wins. It feels gross. I'm with everyone.
34:07
Speaker 1: I I do not feel good doing this. It takes balls.
34:11
Speaker 1: You have to really bet this one and believe that
34:13
Speaker 1: you're getting an overrated ravens team against a patriots team
34:17
Speaker 1: that again, they don't look don't look great this year.
34:19
Speaker 1: But to me their strength is that defense and that
34:22
Speaker 1: run defense. So I like this matchup for this New
34:25
Speaker 1: England team at home. We'll see. It might be a
34:28
Speaker 1: little weather as well. Um, which again I think would
34:30
Speaker 1: favorite this New England team, because you wouldn't believe about
34:33
Speaker 1: this ravens team is starting to become a past happy
34:35
Speaker 1: team like that seems like where their strength as well.
34:37
Speaker 1: These running backs all banged up. So Um, interesting line
34:41
Speaker 1: movement in this one, but I've seen a couple of
34:43
Speaker 1: threes still hanging out there. Hopefully you can find that three. UH,
34:47
Speaker 1: love it down to two to one and a half. Wow,
34:50
Speaker 1: even that kind of move, you're gonna like it. Yeah,
34:54
Speaker 1: because just because I made this game one. So it's
34:56
Speaker 1: like if someone makes it a pick, I understand, but
34:59
Speaker 1: to me I still give a little more respect to
35:01
Speaker 1: this ravens team. But at three points it was just
35:04
Speaker 1: it was just an inflated line of simple fact. The
35:07
Speaker 1: Ravens coming to the year, we were on the train,
35:09
Speaker 1: like we just thought they'd be much better than this
35:10
Speaker 1: New England team. Now we're three weeks in, they don't
35:13
Speaker 1: look that much different. Like they both have their strengths
35:16
Speaker 1: and glaring weaknesses. The biggest one is the secondary, for
35:19
Speaker 1: the Ravens are giving up the most receiving yards. They
35:22
Speaker 1: played two and Joe Flacco the first two weeks, like
35:24
Speaker 1: Mac Jones. If he can't step up in this matchup,
35:28
Speaker 1: patriots fans better start getting worried. I hate this bet.
35:37
Speaker 1: I understand why we're doing it. Uh, it makes total sense,
35:42
Speaker 1: but I'm I'm truly disgusted by it, more so than
35:47
Speaker 1: the jets last week. No, well, the jets honestly look
35:53
Speaker 1: this is this is a bias thing, right. I think
35:56
Speaker 1: the Patriots have looked really, really bad. UH, the jets,
36:00
Speaker 1: I know, are bad, and the Ravens, I almost feel
36:06
Speaker 1: like here's what's hard about this. I feel like I'm
36:10
Speaker 1: betting against the second half Ravens, and I'm is that
36:18
Speaker 1: of making me have a bias that shouldn't be there
36:24
Speaker 1: because of what I saw in the second half, instead
36:28
Speaker 1: of betting the number. Do you know what I mean? Yeah,
36:30
Speaker 1: but I'm telling you, it's not just that. It's two
36:32
Speaker 1: weeks like flacco tore them up and their offense didn't
36:35
Speaker 1: look right against the jets, and then to uh, in
36:38
Speaker 1: their first half without those two interceptions, he was going
36:41
Speaker 1: up and down the field in this ravens defense, like
36:43
Speaker 1: he just gave them the ball to make a look.
36:45
Speaker 1: You know, it was thirteen because of his two turnovers.
36:48
Speaker 1: So I get where you're coming from. But yeah, I'm
36:51
Speaker 1: with you. I didn't overrate too much of just that
36:52
Speaker 1: one half. I'm just worried about the way this ravens
36:56
Speaker 1: teams played. I think Belichick is kind of the perfect
36:59
Speaker 1: guy of scheme up against one more kind of player
37:02
Speaker 1: like this is kind of where he shines in these moments.
37:06
Speaker 1: Belli check, but you're right. Like I I honestly feel
37:09
Speaker 1: gross doing it. But again, I feel like we're playing
37:11
Speaker 1: the number. It's you're getting a good number here in
37:13
Speaker 1: a matchup that does mean much closer than general public
37:16
Speaker 1: really realizes. All right, well, I have now bet the
37:21
Speaker 1: Patriots uh, plus two and a half. So there you go.
37:29
Speaker 1: You know, that's what's available at say. If you can't wait,
37:32
Speaker 1: wait for the three. I just I couldn't. I can't
37:33
Speaker 1: see this number getting below two. So like two and
37:36
Speaker 1: a half I feel like as low as I'll get. Okay,
37:41
Speaker 1: so the Patriots are in there. One of the game.
37:44
Speaker 1: I think we should talk about uh. I don't like
37:48
Speaker 1: it at all. But it's the commanders plus six and
37:51
Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, again. I think the big reason will
37:58
Speaker 1: be on this one is a simple fact that this
38:00
Speaker 1: team dominant first half, second half. Both Games, their offense
38:05
Speaker 1: did nothing and their defense looked vulnerable. So to me,
38:09
Speaker 1: Washington their first two games they just keep fighting like
38:12
Speaker 1: whence kind of has that level never die attitude. He's
38:15
Speaker 1: got great weapons the receiver position, like the kid they
38:18
Speaker 1: drafted this year, this rookie this year, is great. We
38:20
Speaker 1: know about mclauren. I like well Washington has on offense.
38:25
Speaker 1: The reason I'm just not, like so fared up about
38:27
Speaker 1: this one is that their defense is just bad. Like
38:30
Speaker 1: the Eagles are gonna to be able to move the
38:32
Speaker 1: ball for sure on this Washington team. So yeah, my
38:36
Speaker 1: my one biggest claring thing where I like Washington here
38:38
Speaker 1: is just because this is way too many points in
38:40
Speaker 1: divisional rivalry, especially when they're at home. But the fact
38:44
Speaker 1: that the eagles team has lets teams back in again. Kirk,
38:47
Speaker 1: that was on him. They should have came back in
38:49
Speaker 1: that game. He just could not capitalize on turnovers or
38:51
Speaker 1: in the reds on at all. So Washington here six
38:55
Speaker 1: and a half. I hated to chat but I'm gonna
38:58
Speaker 1: be betting it. Maybe we're able to commit it. Yeah,
39:01
Speaker 1: you have to do it. It's just gonna be hard
39:03
Speaker 1: for me to put in the contest. But like again,
39:06
Speaker 1: if it comes Sunday and the same numbers, it's like
39:09
Speaker 1: the tickets and money is on the forty nine and
39:11
Speaker 1: we have this Washington team here, I'd probably flip the
39:14
Speaker 1: takedom or forty nine. Is just because I hate being
39:17
Speaker 1: on the public side like that. But both, both these
39:20
Speaker 1: teams are on the fence to me where it's like
39:21
Speaker 1: I want them both in. Um, I'll be able to.
39:23
Speaker 1: I could flip either way come Sunday. Okay, all right,
39:28
Speaker 1: we'll put it. We'll put a stick in there, a
39:30
Speaker 1: stake in it, a pin and it whatever it is
39:34
Speaker 1: right now, I can tell you right now we love
39:37
Speaker 1: the bucks, we love the Jags, I guess we love
39:41
Speaker 1: the Falcons, uh, and we're keeping an eye right now
39:47
Speaker 1: on the giants, niners, paths and commanders. Those are the
39:53
Speaker 1: final games we're keeping an eye on. So two of
39:57
Speaker 1: those four will be in our final five, most likely,
40:01
Speaker 1: less something changes between now and Thursday. And again I
40:06
Speaker 1: would think about the bangles because Chad liked it at
40:08
Speaker 1: four and a half. I didn't hate that, it just
40:10
Speaker 1: felt a little chalky. Um. Now it's of the five
40:13
Speaker 1: and a half. So it depends what number you could get.
40:16
Speaker 1: But I wouldn't put them the contest of five and
40:17
Speaker 1: a half. I would maybe think of four and a half,
40:19
Speaker 1: but that's that's a little, a little too rich of
40:21
Speaker 1: five and a half. Now Chad's super smart. He knows
40:26
Speaker 1: which way the numbers are gonna go. He tends to
40:28
Speaker 1: be right on these things. He did win Scooch Roulette
40:30
Speaker 1: last week. Executive decision was right because, I mean, you
40:33
Speaker 1: get to go first this week on Scooch Roulott, I
40:35
Speaker 1: might as well. When all hope is lost, all that's
40:39
Speaker 1: left is relief. Let's play scoots roulette. Well, I'm not
40:47
Speaker 1: going to take the bengals because I took the bengals
40:50
Speaker 1: in my exact decision at four and a half. Reminder,
40:54
Speaker 1: the foxhole was vikings minus six and the Simon says,
40:58
Speaker 1: was bucks minus two. So if I'm doing scooch roulette
41:01
Speaker 1: right now, you know what I'm doing. Going back to
41:03
Speaker 1: the well, Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven. I was gonna do
41:08
Speaker 1: that one too. All Right, I'M gonna put my money
41:15
Speaker 1: where my mouth is. Give me Atlanta. All in on
41:18
Speaker 1: the Silent Hawaiian? Wow, what number? Plus One? I don't care.
41:23
Speaker 1: Give it to me a minus one. I'm all in, Dude,
41:26
Speaker 1: you are. I'm sucked in. This is usually when I
41:28
Speaker 1: get burned bad by Atlanta, but I just watching the
41:31
Speaker 1: film like they left so many plays on the field
41:34
Speaker 1: against the rams. I just see, against even a worst defense,
41:37
Speaker 1: they're just gonna be able to make those plays. I
41:38
Speaker 1: got Cordell Patterson, drake, London, cow pits, all very good weapons.
41:44
Speaker 1: Um and Mariote is better than Gino, in my opinion.
41:47
Speaker 1: They wrote me off. I ain't right back, though. That's
41:49
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Speaker 1: nutritional insurance. All right, reminder, big balls better. The week
43:32
Speaker 1: was the New England patriots. Here's the final rundown of
43:35
Speaker 1: all the branded bets that we've made Tuesday and Thursday.
43:40
Speaker 1: Foxel likes minus six, exact decision. Bengals minus four and
43:44
Speaker 1: a half. Uh Simon says bucks minus two. Bengals are
43:50
Speaker 1: the survivor pick that we made scoot roulette. Chad likes
43:54
Speaker 1: the Jacks plus seven. Simon likes the Falcons at any number.
43:58
Speaker 1: And the big balls of the week the New England patriots. Simon,
44:06
Speaker 1: give us a round robin here on money line. Round
44:08
Speaker 1: Robin Parlay. All right. Unfortunately, showing two and three last week,
44:14
Speaker 1: Landa didn't come through. I was a heartbreaker. Um this
44:19
Speaker 1: week I wanted to give out the colts but, like again,
44:22
Speaker 1: our guy everyone scared me off of it. Apparently my
44:24
Speaker 1: homes doesn't lose in the spot, so we're open for
44:26
Speaker 1: the cover. I'M NOT gonna waste your money to take
44:29
Speaker 1: the all there. So we talked about Miami. Already. Screw
44:32
Speaker 1: the points. Take the moneyline. So first one in Miami,
44:35
Speaker 1: second one in New England, third one in Washington. Fourth
44:39
Speaker 1: one in Jaguars Chad. Chad. We already talked that. We
44:42
Speaker 1: love it. The last one, I gotta do it and
44:45
Speaker 1: again I'll never take them on the spread or anything. Arizona.
44:49
Speaker 1: I don't know how the rams are the kind of
44:53
Speaker 1: team that can ever stat like, you know, have a
44:56
Speaker 1: lead and protect it. They just can't run the ball.
44:58
Speaker 1: So I have a team in Arizona where I know
45:00
Speaker 1: color American video game mode. I'll take it three and
45:04
Speaker 1: a half, whatever the money line is. I'll throw it
45:05
Speaker 1: in the round robin just because this, to me, is
45:08
Speaker 1: a coin flip game. That's why that number is so perfect.
45:10
Speaker 1: A three and a half. There is no real reason
45:12
Speaker 1: to take either side. It's truly who the hell knows.
45:15
Speaker 1: You're dealing with anither of these teams. So I love
45:17
Speaker 1: that to cap out around Robin. It's just a gross
45:20
Speaker 1: finish taking this car cardinals team. All right, money line,
45:24
Speaker 1: round robin, parlay, Miami Dolphins, New England, patriots, Washington commanders,
45:30
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars, the Arizona cardinals. That doesn't my brother that survivor.
45:36
Speaker 1: Let's gotta lock it in. Well, we said Bengals. Is
45:40
Speaker 1: that and we're good with that. I don't see any
45:43
Speaker 1: game on this board. That makes me feel better. Yeah, alright,
45:46
Speaker 1: bengals it is. We live and die. Bengals going three
45:49
Speaker 1: and me and chatter out. Simon, we will be together
45:52
Speaker 1: again and convinced me. Sunday morning, eleven a m eastern me. You,
45:56
Speaker 1: Sean Croner, Chris Raybon, Dan rival, Samantha Pavidi to great show.
46:00
Speaker 1: People should watch it at action network, HQ on the twitter,
46:03
Speaker 1: Action Network on the Youtube. Download the action network APP.
46:07
Speaker 1: Follow everything we're talking about in the action network gap
46:10
Speaker 1: phase five. You'll get our final five on Sunday. Everything
46:14
Speaker 1: else follow the favorites podcast. That's where you can track
46:17
Speaker 1: the Foxhole, the exact decision. This, Simon says, the Scooch Roulette,
46:21
Speaker 1: all that big balls, better the week, all that good stuff.
46:24
Speaker 1: I'm Chad Melman. He's Simon Hunter. Producer is Matt Mitchell.
46:28
Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the volume podcast network.
46:30
Speaker 1: Download us from spotify, up a podcast wherever you get
46:34
Speaker 1: your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, give us five stars, say
46:38
Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time,
46:42
Speaker 1: I love you.