Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 29 - 4/23/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 29 - 4/23/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello and welcome to episode 29 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:33
Happy Tuesday and boy did we get our week started off on a hot
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note. A great night last night guys. 4
0:40
and 2 + 1.45 units including a clean sweep in Major League
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Baseball. The OS, Toronto Blue Jays and
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the Phillies all came through for the team which was great to
0:50
see. And also we continued our red
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hot streak here with the help of Rhythm who powers this podcast
0:57
and does a fantastic job. And if you aren't, if you
0:59
haven't downloaded yet and gotten the seven day free trial
1:02
of Rhythm, I don't know what you're doing with your life.
1:03
If you're interested in sports betting, you want to make sharp
1:06
bets. You want to use AI back models
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to your advantage. Rhythm came through for us again
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last night with Max Struce. That's right, Max Struce Over 13
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1/2 points in rebounds, Rhythm predicted 16 1/2 and wouldn't
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you know it, he landed right on 16 with seven points and 9
1:24
rebounds. So once again, Rhythm helped us
1:26
to cash a bet and that's the beauty of Rhythm.
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So if you haven't done it yet, I want you to do this right now.
1:31
You can pause the pod right after I tell you what to do, but
1:34
you got to go sign up for Rhythm, get that 7 day free
1:36
trial. You can sign up by clicking the
1:38
link which is pinned to the top of my profile on Twitter at Josh
1:42
under score Insights. You can also just search my
1:44
Twitter page. I tweeted about Max Drew, so you
1:47
can just click the link right in that tweet.
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But again, to me, Rhythm is such a great resource because it
1:52
really helps you to identify where the value is and then of
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course, you know, kind of use a little bit of your own
1:57
intuition. Look at, I really want the juice
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to line up with what rhythm is projecting like rhythm.
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What I liked about last night with Max Struce is that they had
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over 13 1/2 with an edge predicting 16 1/2 with the
2:08
market agreed because if you looked at Max Struce that was
2:11
juiced up -120 -, 125 S Again it's it's taking advantage of
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these data backed models and then kind of playing them off
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the betting market and if the market is in agreement or
2:21
leaning toward kind of the direction that rhythm is leaning
2:24
then hey that's a bet worth making.
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So Max Struce, take a bow, my man rhythm take a bow and start
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downloading rhythm today so you can make sharp data backed AI
2:33
picks today and make some money. Now.
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The only two losses were NHL, the Bruins had a lead, blew it
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late. The Dallas Stars got rolled by
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VGK so couldn't get those two. But nice start to our week with
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a four and 2 + 1.45 unit night. Now looking toward today, guys,
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let's see if we can keep it rolling.
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I have a 5 pack of sweats for you on episode 29.
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A big Tuesday in the arena including three Major League
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Baseball bets, all relatively short numbers.
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A couple teams we've been riding recently, we're going to ride
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them again today. I have another bet for you in
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the NBA and yes, it is a player prop, so get ready.
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I got another rhythm bet for you.
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We're going to target a big man to go over 15 1/2 points and
3:14
rebounds. I'll tell you who that is
3:15
shortly. And then I got an NHL bet for
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you. But I'm going to kind of dabble
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here in the NFL or sorry, I see you got the NFL draft on the
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mind. I got an NHL playoff prop bet
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for you. I'm looking at a player, prop,
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shots on goal. I'm hoping this forward can get
3:30
us three shots on goal because I'm taking us over 2 1/2.
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So I'll also tell you who that player is, second-half of the
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pod here. But with that being said, guys,
3:38
we are one day closer to the NFL draft and we're looking pretty
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decent with some of our numbers here.
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Like I was looking at the updated numbers and currently we
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have now Jaden Daniels -400 to be selected second overall.
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We all know Caleb Williams is going first.
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You know at some point what is it -10,000 you can be, could bet
3:56
it, I guess, but you're not getting anything back.
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So it's really an unbettable number.
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But Williams won and really we need to get #2 there with Jaden
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Daniels because we have a trifecta going here.
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Top three Williams, Daniels, May, I got that at -145.
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That's creeping up more than -150 now at this point, which is
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great to see. But again, Daniels now a -, 400
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favorite to be selected second overall to the commander.
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So commanders don't screw this up.
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Take Jayden Daniels. Also, I want to mention one
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other prop, Brooks, the running back from the the Texas
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Longhorns. We got him to be the first
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running back off the board At plus 1/10.
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He is now -150. So good movement there.
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Murphy's under 14 1/2 continues to be juiced up.
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Michael Pennix got under 32 1/2, around -120, I think it's -200
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now. Brock Bowers under 12, 1/2
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Fuaga, second offensive lineman selected.
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I got him plus 210. Mentioned that on the pot he's
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down to plus 175. And Turner the first defensive
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line, more edge rusher at plus 100.
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So I'm currently holding 123-4567 NFL draft prop bets and
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I am going to add a couple more. There's a couple that I'm
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looking at right now which are head to heads.
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So who will be drafted? They give you two players.
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Who will be picked first? So keep an eye on that.
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I'm leaning on a couple. I just want to give it another
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day or two. Again, we don't have too much
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time left. It's the drafts on Thursday, but
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we could be adding a couple more.
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But big news to me is that now Jaden Daniels is up to -400,
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which is good for our top three here.
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Trifecta of Williams, Daniels and May.
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With that being said, guys, let's get right back into it.
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You came to the pod to listen to some data, backed picks, sharp
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contrarian plays and let's not waste any more time and let's
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get after it. See if we can extend our winning
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streak here after a big Friday, a good Monday, Let's make it a
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good Tuesday. So let's go to Major League
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Baseball. That's where I want to start
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because I have 3 picks here that I'm excited to sweat with you
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guys tonight and I'll give you the breakdown.
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You can decide whether you want to roll with me, but this is
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what I have bet. And first one is Philadelphia
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Phillies. I'm going right back to the well
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with the Phillies. Phillies had a great win for us
5:58
yesterday. Gave gave me a little bit of
6:00
anxiety. Got me nervous because you had
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the star player, Bryce Harper a late scratch because he was
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going to be there for the birth of his child.
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She's on paternity leave. I don't know if he's going to
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play tonight or not. I'm guessing maybe not.
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But still the line's going toward Philly so Philly even
6:15
out. Harper got got us a great seven
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to nothing win yesterday and I'm going right back to the well
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with the Phillies tonight guys. So Phillies now 15 and eight
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again 7 nothing win for us last night as around a -, 110 Rd.
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favorite. In tonight's rematch.
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The Phills are going with lefty Christopher Sanchez who's one
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and two with a 2.53 ERA. The Reds, meanwhile, who are 12
6:34
and 10 on the year, they're going to go with lefty Andrew
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Abbott, the young southpaw one and two 2.7 OERA.
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But really, why am I going Phillies again?
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The market's telling me they're getting steam, so that's where
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I'm going. I'm going with the Sharp line
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with the Philadelphia Phillies, actually open this game as low
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as -115 ish. When I was writing about the
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Sharp Report for vesan.com earlier today, which you can
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always check out earlier in the day, always tweeted out for my
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Twitter feed at Josh. under score Insights, you can give me
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a follow, but I bet them earlier today at -125 because I saw them
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go from -115 to -125. Now they're around -130.
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I see a -, 135 out there. So great situation here where
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the line continues to go in in favor of Philly.
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Obviously not great if you didn't bet it yet, but still
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-130 -, 135 is not a bad price, but just a good angle here that
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the pros are still liking the phills even though the line's
7:26
starting to creep up a little bit.
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But anyway, Philly's getting around 70% of money line bets in
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dollars. So kind of both a pro and Joe
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bet split, you know, Publix on the Phills.
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But again, I always try to stress this, there isn't a lot
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of public who bets MLB on a daily basis.
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It's just us wise guys who like to bet it and grind it out for
7:45
the entire, you know, 6 plus month season.
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So 70% doesn't scare me like it does 70% in the NFL.
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As a contrarian, better. But really it's that big steam
7:53
move toward Philly that really caught my eye.
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Tells me pros are on the phills today.
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Now Philadelphia, who's now won seven straight, really going to
8:00
bank on their offense. They're hitting 247 versus only
8:03
219 for Cincinnati. Also better pitching staff.
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Their team ERA is 3.25 versus 4 point O2 for the Reds.
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But in particular anytime you see two lefties going head to
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Well, guess what? The The Phillies are hitting 278
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against lefties this year. That's the third best average in
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Major League Baseball. The Reds, meanwhile, are hitting
8:25
218 against lefties. SO2 southpaws on the bump.
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Phillies crush lefties since he does not advantage Phills and
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then get into our system matches here.
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Rd. favorites. They've been great.
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We continue to ride them. They continue to cash.
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Knock on wood. Let's hope that that stays true.
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But Rd. favorites Very simple system.
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There's 72 and 36 this year, 67% with an 18% ROI.
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Been a great system to follow and now you're right on the edge
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because some books are around -135, but there are some books
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that are still around -130, but that would be our sweet spot.
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So sweet spot short favorites -130 or less, they're 86 and 63
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this year 58% but because you're paying relatively low amount of
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juice that's actually a 7% ROI. Another system match here would
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be non division Rd. favorites off a win good angle that is 60%
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since 2021. So it's been a good system
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there, 540 and 361. Be at all up here, guys.
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I'm hoping Bryce Harper plays, but even if he doesn't, going
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right back to all the Phillies. Lot of system matches, Good
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steam. And see if the Phills can make
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it two in a row for us. I'm on Philadelphia.
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I got a -, 125. Now they're around -130.
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Keep on cruising. I feel like I bet this team and
9:37
they never come through for me. Or at least I bet them a couple
9:39
times this year and they haven't cashed.
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Maybe they'll cash for us tonight.
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Let's go Saint Louis. I'm going with the Cardinals
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here tonight, guys. They're at home against Arizona.
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You did see the Cardinals win the opener.
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They're 10 and 13. They won the opener 5:00 and
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5:00 to 3:00 last night. Took care of business as around
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a -, 115 home favorite. And the rematch, the D backs.
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They're 11 and 13 again. I'm not too concerned yet about
10:01
my over 83 1/2 win total, but it's picking up a little bit.
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D backs but loose tonight at least hopefully.
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But they are going with lefty Tommy Henry who's O and one with
10:10
a 6.87 ERA. If you look on the flip side,
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the cards are going with Steven Mats one and one 3.6 O 86 OERA
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Mats owes us owes us because he got lit up his last time.
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I I know I was on him and Mats blew up unfortunately.
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So hopefully he'll come back with a win for us tonight and
10:28
pitch well. But anyway, what I like about
10:31
this one is a fade the trendy dog play because this game
10:33
actually opened Saint Louis around -115 -, 120 very short
10:39
home favorite. And the public says, hey two
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teams about the same record. You know Saint Louis won last
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night. Let's take Arizona a little plus
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money they're going to win win tonight.
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So the public's actually on Arizona obviously remember them
10:51
going to the World Series last year.
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Cardinals having a down year. But even though you're getting
10:56
the public on Arizona, nearly 60% of money line bets in
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Arizona. The line guys, it's going
11:01
towards Saint Louis. Saint Louis -115 -, 120 now up
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as high as -135. So if the public's on Arizona
11:08
taking the plus money dog why is the line going to Saint Louis
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Tells me we got smart money here on Saint Louis only getting
11:14
around 40% of bets. Now Saint Louis does have the
11:17
better pitching staff. Their team ERA is 3.81 versus 4
11:20
point O2 for Arizona. And really the bullpen that's
11:23
we're going to bank on team ERA of out of the pen 3.33 for Saint
11:28
Louis versus 4.18 for Arizona. Also Matt's home Rd.
11:33
He's been great at home. At home his ERA is 0, hasn't
11:35
given up a run yet At home, knock on wood on the road it's
11:38
4.8 O. So hopefully Matt's Toss is a
11:41
gem for us here tonight. Now the cards would have that
11:43
classic non division favorite value with the lack of
11:47
familiarity benefiting the better team.
11:49
And I did notice some smart money leaning over.
11:51
I didn't play the over, but I would go over if you're going to
11:54
play the total. I did notice it's 8 1/2 really
11:56
juiced up 8 1/2 / -, 115 -, 120 pretty good bet split 55% bets,
12:02
but 90% of the money is going over.
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So that's a pretty good bet split.
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Maybe I should take the over. I didn't play it.
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I don't love having both sweats, 'cause I, you know, I'm, I'm
12:11
rooting for Saint Louis tonight. So if Saint Louis wins, you
12:13
know, 5 to 2 and it goes under 8 1/2, I don't want to be mad.
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I lost my over and then, you know, not get to celebrate a
12:20
Saint Louis win. So I don't love having both a
12:23
play on a side and a total in the same game.
12:25
Maybe you guys are different. Maybe you think differently.
12:27
Maybe you say, hey, just follow the market, play it.
12:29
You might go 2 and O, but I'm just going to go with Saint
12:32
Louis here, 'cause it looks like a good sharp fade.
12:34
The trendy dog public Zona line going to Saint Louis?
12:37
Give me the Cardinals shop round.
12:39
I got the Cardinals a little bit earlier today, around -130.
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Now they're upwards of around -135.
12:45
And last but not least, if it ain't broke, we ain't going to
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fix it. Let's go right back to the wall
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with the OS, baby, quickly becoming one of my favorite
12:53
teams to bet on. And I am going to bet on them
12:56
once again tonight. They are on the road at the
12:58
Angels now. I was in my I was put in my
13:02
softball league last night with our first game of the year.
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We ended up losing unfortunately, although it was
13:07
relatively close. These scores are crazy.
13:09
I got I got set lines for these games but we lost 17 to 15.
13:13
That's beer league softball for you.
13:15
But anyway, had a good game. But I came back and I DVR D the
13:19
Bruins. So I watched the Bruins 1st and
13:20
I checked off, checked all the plays after I stayed up till
13:23
like 3:00 AM. You know, as a 36 year old now,
13:26
I don't bounce back quite as as as quickly as I used to, but
13:29
anyway, I was noticing that Baltimore won the game.
13:31
I'm like, oh nice O's got the win four to two but didn't
13:34
realize that boy, it was dicey there.
13:37
They had the bases loaded, the Angels with Trout up and can't
13:40
believe it, but Craig Kimball, who always gives you a heart
13:43
attack, actually came through with a big strikeouts on the
13:45
game. So shout out to Craig Kimbrel
13:47
for saving it last night for us. But anyway, guys, the O's now 15
13:50
and seven. You look at the Angels, Nine and
13:53
14 O's have been red hot. The Orioles have now won, I
13:56
believe. What?
13:56
Seven of their last eight Angels are on the slide right now, but
13:59
the pitching matchup tonight hopefully favors Baltimore.
14:02
They're going with Rady Grayson Rodriguez, the young
14:04
flamethrower. He was a top pick three and O
14:07
2.63 ERA. This year, Angels are going with
14:10
Griffin caning O and three eight point O 5 ERA.
14:14
But really to me, this is just a very, you know, kind of obvious
14:17
team move toward Baltimore and I'm going to play it.
14:19
Give me the OS. The OS opened at around -145.
14:22
Now they got bet up to -155 this morning.
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I got them at -155. I'm seeing them upwards of -160
14:29
-, 165 now. So again, gift and a curse.
14:32
You can look at it one of two ways.
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If you're already bet Baltimore and again I recommend if you're
14:37
a baseball addict like me to check out my sharp report for
14:40
vc.com. It comes out at around noon
14:42
Eastern Time each day. But if you got a -, 155, now
14:45
it's -165, you're hey, we're good.
14:47
We were beating the closing line.
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If you haven't bet it yet, you're like, oh man, it's moved
14:51
so much. Do I still play it?
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That's something that you have to decide on your own.
14:54
But in a money line sport like this, it's not like football
14:57
where, you know, maybe you get a team -2 1/2, the line's now up
15:01
to 3 1/2. Are you still going to lay the 3
15:03
1/2? No, you probably missed the
15:04
value. Money line's different.
15:05
You're risking 1 unit, or at least I hope everyone is.
15:08
You lose, it's just a lost one unit, you win, you're still
15:11
going to make something back. Although you know the people who
15:13
bet Baltimore a little bit earlier will make a little bit
15:15
more, but still you're going to profit if the O's come through.
15:17
So I look at it differently and I'm like more willing to to play
15:21
a money line that's moved a little bit versus a spread
15:23
because again, key numbers. It could land on that number and
15:27
you could end up losing while someone else could win if they
15:29
bet it earlier than you. But anyway, line keeps going to
15:32
the the OS, which is a good thing.
15:34
Now the Orioles are getting around 90% of bets, 95% of
15:39
money. Set is a big public play, but
15:40
again, also a sharp bet with wiseguy action and a lot of
15:44
steam moving that number toward the OS.
15:46
Now the Orioles, I'm really going to bank on their offense,
15:48
really hoping Rodriguez throws a gem tonight.
15:51
But also the OS offense has been great.
15:53
They're hitting 261 with 35 homers and 126 runs scored.
15:58
Angels are hitting 237 with 23 homers and 94 runs scored.
16:03
Also, better pitching staff, 3.84 ERA versus 4.4 O Got a lot
16:08
of system matches on Baltimore, the road favorites, 67% this
16:12
year. Another system that I have on
16:14
Baltimore in particular. They really feast on bad teams.
16:17
So what do I mean by what do I mean by that?
16:19
I mean that when Baltimore plays A-Team who missed the playoffs
16:21
the previous year they're nine and five so far this season and
16:25
since the start of last year they're 55 and 2073% against non
16:29
playoff teams 19% ROI. So I'm hoping we get a we get a
16:33
good Baltimore Orioles winner here for us tonight.
16:36
I did notice there was some juice liability 8 1/2 / -, 115.
16:39
Again I didn't play it excuse me, but I'm just going to
16:42
Baltimore in this one. Let's go OS see if they can keep
16:45
it rolling. I got Baltimore -155 now they're
16:48
upwards of -165. South Philly, Saint Louis and
16:52
Baltimore. Let's try to get two out of
16:54
three here tonight in Major League Baseball.
16:57
Now over to the NBA. So I did notice one thing I want
17:01
to mention. The Unders.
17:03
The Unders been crushing in the NBA postseason.
17:05
The Unders are now 12 and 475% to start the postseason.
17:11
The Sun's Timberwolves. So it's a triple header tonight.
17:13
Sun's Timberwolves are at 7:30. That total did fall 214 down to
17:17
211 1/2. Also the Pacers in the box that
17:21
total was 226 1/2. Got all the way down to at one
17:23
point. I want to say 2/22/22, two 21221
17:29
and a half 222. It's come back up now.
17:31
There's been some late, seem to be over, but then also Mavs and
17:34
Clippers. There's a big move in the Mavs
17:36
Clippers game because it looks like Kawhi Leonard's going to
17:38
play. That was an opener of Mavs -2
17:40
1/2. Now it's up to Clippers -1 1/2.
17:43
So that is dog to fav Clippers, but that's based on an injury
17:46
and that total did fall in the Clippers game that was 218 down
17:50
to 216 1/2. So the Sun's T Wolves and the
17:53
Mavs Clippers games. If you want to play this under
17:55
trend, those are the two games that are.
17:57
It's pretty clear the total is dropping.
17:59
Looks like smart money to the under.
18:01
But you know what guys? If it ain't broke, I ain't
18:03
fixing it. I'm I'm going to keep.
18:04
I'm going to keep riding these rhythm player prop bets because
18:08
they have been cashing for us so far.
18:10
I believe it's now four and O so far to start the post season and
18:13
I can, I can name them for you. Bogdanovich.
18:16
Hold on. We had Bogdanovich.
18:18
We had Jaeime Hakez. We had who was it?
18:21
Who was 19 F Harrison Barnes. And then of course last night we
18:25
have Max Truce. So who is behind door number one
18:28
for our rhythm player prop of the night.
18:32
It's in the Suns T Wolves game and it is Nas Reed.
18:36
Let's go Nas Reed the big man. Remember him from LSU?
18:41
Nas Reed, who is scaring me because JJ Reddick who I work
18:46
with on the JJ Reddick pod, he he voted for, I believe Naz Reed
18:50
for 6th man of the year. I'm on Malik Monk.
18:52
So anyway, I just if you're on Monk like me you're hearing that
18:56
Naz Reed is getting a lot of votes.
18:57
That's scaring us in my futures. But anyway, do not worry about
19:01
that. We'll cross that bridge when we
19:02
get there. But I am on Naz Reed tonight to
19:04
go over 15 1/2 points and rebounds.
19:09
Now Naz Reed according to Rhythm is projected to get 18.8 points
19:14
and rebounds combined tonight. So if it's over 15 1/2 and
19:17
they're projecting 18 1/2, that is a more little more than a
19:20
three-point difference there, which is really actionable.
19:25
Remember Struce? Last night we had Struce over 13
19:28
1/2 and Rhythm was projecting 16 half.
19:30
So it's still kind of that three, that 3 point difference
19:34
and that's how I like to use rhythm.
19:35
Like if it's like if they had predicted predicted.
19:38
Nas read like 16 points and rebounds and it's over 15 1/2.
19:41
That's not enough of an edge for me.
19:43
Like, I'm really looking for at least a one point edge, ideally
19:45
2, if not two. You know, three.
19:47
You want to find the biggest edge you can, and Rhythm does a
19:49
good job of breaking that down for us.
19:51
Because you download the app, you can sort the games by, you
19:55
know, the game time or different prop bets.
19:58
You can look at combos, points, rebounds, specifically, whatever
20:01
you want to do. But anyway, this is the biggest
20:03
edge that I located and I agree with tonight, so I'm going to
20:06
ride it. And why do I agree with it?
20:07
Not only does Rhythm, you know, have these great projections
20:10
which have helped us cash bets in the postseason. 15, 1/2 over,
20:14
they're projecting 18.8, that's a good edge.
20:16
But also the betting market seems to agree.
20:19
So this is the other thing I like to use.
20:20
I mentioned earlier, but I want the market to be juiced up in
20:23
favor of basically the rhythm projection.
20:26
So I went to a couple different sports books and Nas read over
20:30
15 1/2 points and rebounds is -130.
20:34
That one book I was looking at it was -125 and another it was
20:37
-140 at another book. So again, always shop around,
20:40
try to get the best number, but basically the juice the juiced
20:44
up over is in kind of unison in the same direction as the
20:48
direction that rhythm is telling us to go.
20:50
So the market's agreeing with rhythm.
20:51
I'm just trying to explain to you guys like the whole point of
20:55
all systems go pod is obviously I want to mention plays every
20:58
day that win and help you guys win and make money.
21:00
But again, we're trying to, we're trying to teach the
21:02
process, the mindset. So I don't want to just say go
21:06
bet and Oz read over 15 1/2 and hope that he wins.
21:08
I want you guys to kind of use Nas Reed as an example or Struce
21:11
as an example so you can kind of identify these bets and make
21:14
them make sharp bets on your own.
21:16
So with that being said, good edge from rhythm juiced up over.
21:20
Now Nas Reed in game one, he had 12 points and two rebounds,
21:23
that's 14. So actually wouldn't have gone
21:25
over. But if you look at him
21:26
historically, he was late on rebounds, only two boards, He
21:30
averages 5A game and he had a couple games, I believe against
21:33
the Suns in particular, where he had like 11 rebounds.
21:36
So I'm hoping for a little bit of a bounce back.
21:37
Also, maybe he scored a little bit less than he should.
21:40
On the season he averages 14 points a game.
21:42
He was only four of 10 from the field.
21:44
That's 40%. He shot 48% during the regular
21:47
season. And you also look at to this #15
21:51
1/2 over points and rebounds, he's gone that over that number
21:54
7 and three or seven of his last 10 games.
21:57
So we have a good rhythm projection.
22:00
They're projecting 18 1/2, so we're going over 15 1/2.
22:03
Hopefully a little bit more offense and more rebounding than
22:06
game one. But again, he's gone over this
22:08
number in seven of his last 10. So I'm going with Naz Reed,
22:12
former LSU Tiger, now a Minnesota T Wolf, to go over 15
22:17
1/2 points and rebounds, and I got that at -125.
22:21
Now last bit of the night for you, I was looking at the NHL
22:23
slate. I was interested in one game in
22:26
particular, Colorado and Winnipeg, because this game is
22:30
notable to me because First off, Colorado lost the opener.
22:34
It was a seven to six game. If anyone took that over, that
22:37
was about as easy a game to sweat as you'll ever have.
22:40
But now Colorado lost. They're down O one or down one O
22:43
however you want to phrase it and they need this game tonight.
22:46
And I was leaning toward Colorado.
22:47
I noticed a good move toward the ABS.
22:48
They opened at some shops as a slight dog and now they're like
22:52
-120. So they went from like plus one
22:54
O 5 to -120. So it's like, hey, why not play
22:56
Colorado? So I was close on Colorado, but
23:00
I've just been struggling with my money lines in hockey
23:03
recently. Happened again last night.
23:05
So I'm saying, hey, why? Why not try out a player prop?
23:08
So there's one player prop in particular that I feel like I
23:11
found a pretty good edge on. It's shots on goal and it is a
23:14
Colorado Ave. and it is Valerie Nashushkin.
23:20
Don't ask me to spell Nashkin. I can spell Valerie VEVALERI.
23:25
I remember Pavel Beret and Valerie Beret back in the day.
23:29
But anyway, Valerie Nashushkin over 2 1/2 shots on goal, so
23:34
it's juiced up over -125 now. By the way, Rhythm doesn't have
23:38
NHL props, bet, prop, bet projections yet.
23:41
They will over time. Just this is my own personal
23:43
bet. But this is kind of the model
23:45
that I use, Betting, NFL betting, any other sport.
23:48
So what I like about this one first is that in game one,
23:51
Winnipeg won One. Nothing.
23:53
But I believe Winnipeg only had like 17 shots on goal or like 20
23:57
shots on goal. Was a low number and Colorado
23:59
had forty shots on goal. So basically the Winnipeg goalie
24:02
Hellebuck was really good. George EF was not very good for
24:06
Colorado, but Colorado had forty shots on goal.
24:09
Colorado also had the 4th most shots on goal during the regular
24:12
season. They averaged 33.
24:14
They're down O1. They're desperate.
24:16
They got a win tonight, so I'm thinking they're going to have a
24:19
lot of shots tonight. So I'm basically starting out in
24:22
the macro, which is Colorado's got the line move.
24:26
They they're desperate for a win.
24:27
They have a ton of shots on goal the last game and overall in the
24:30
season. So let's target a Colorado Ave.
24:33
Shots on goal, so land on the shushkin because over 2 1/2 is
24:36
juiced up -125. But he did have three shots on
24:40
goal in game one. He did have 20 minutes and 47
24:44
seconds of ice time in game one. That was the third most among
24:48
all forwards. Only Ronton and McKinnon had
24:52
more time on ice. So it's like in the NBA, if I'm
24:55
going with an over prop and I want a guy, it's going to give
24:58
me minutes and has enough time out there to score and go over.
25:01
But he's got a lot of time on ice and he also is tied for the
25:05
most power play time on ice. He's out there a lot on the main
25:08
advantage and he only played in 54 games, but he had 158 shots.
25:12
If you extrapolate that in an 82 game season, that's 239 shots,
25:17
which would put him I think second on the team.
25:19
I think he's right now he's like 5th or 6th, but he did miss some
25:22
time. So again, deductive reasoning.
25:25
Here we have a desperate team who really puts a ton of shots
25:29
on goal. We got a guy who's over 2 1/2
25:31
juiced up. He's got a lot of ice time.
25:33
He had three last game. Let's see if we can do it again
25:35
here tonight. I am on Valerie Nashushkin over
25:39
2 1/2 shots on goal. I got that at -125, so that
25:44
about does it for episode 29 of the All Systems Go sports
25:48
betting podcast. After a real good start to our
25:51
week yesterday, let's let's see, we can keep it going.
25:53
But reminder, if you enjoy the All Systems Go pod, if you look
25:57
forward to listening to it each day #1 thank you.
26:00
I really, really appreciate it And I'm lucky enough to host
26:02
this pod. But really, even though I I do
26:04
the pod everyday from my my studio, my basement studio in my
26:08
house, I feel like I'm, you know, sitting amongst friends,
26:10
sitting amongst otherwise guys breaking down games, you know,
26:14
kind of the voice of the data-driven crew.
26:16
So First off, thank you for listening, but I'm also going to
26:19
ask you to do one thing for me. If you're listening to this pod
26:22
and you haven't done it yet, can you give this pod a five star
26:25
review? Whether it's iTunes or Spotify,
26:28
those are the two main ones. But if you have an iTunes
26:30
account or Spotify, however you listen to the pod, could you
26:33
please give it five stars? That would really mean a lot to
26:35
me. Very simple thing you can do.
26:37
It'll take you 5 seconds, but it really helps to rise up the
26:40
rankings and give more exposure to the pod.
26:43
Of course, if you want to, you know, recommend it to a friend,
26:45
that would be great too. But again, A5 star review would
26:47
really go a long way and I would really appreciate it.
26:49
Thank you. Of course, if you enjoy the pod,
26:52
maybe you've learned a thing or two along the way.
26:54
Whether you join me with all systems go that we got started,
26:58
you know, just a few weeks ago, or you with me for a quite a
27:01
while now, 'cause I did, you know, thousands of pods before
27:04
this or whatever the case may be.
27:05
If you want to make my day, if you want to let me know you
27:08
appreciate the hard work that I put in.
27:10
Again, everything I do is free. I don't charge a dime.
27:12
Again, this is This Is Us trying to win and beat the books
27:15
together. But as contrarians we actually
27:17
root for the books, which is kind of weird.
27:19
But anyway, if you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
27:23
you want to learn more about how to go contrarian.
27:26
How to place a bet in person, how to shop online for the best
27:28
number, how to locate sharp action bankroll management if
27:31
you want to learn more and it holds something in your hand.
27:34
The data-driven Bible. Well, guess what?
27:36
I wrote it The All the Everything Guide to Sports
27:39
Betting. So if you want to go to
27:40
Amazon.com and type in the Everything Guide to Sports
27:43
betting, buy a copy for you, or for a friend, or a buddy of
27:46
yours, or a relative or Co worker.
27:49
Maybe you're in a newly legalized state.
27:51
Maybe this is someone who loves betting, doesn't win a lot, but
27:54
needs to know not to. You know not to take every
27:57
popular play. Go contrarian a little bit.
27:59
Learn how to read line movement. Learn how to locate sharp
28:01
action. Learn how to learn how, how, and
28:04
why you should never parlay or not.
28:05
Never. But I never parlay again.
28:08
To me it's a it's a sucker's bet.
28:10
I just grind out flat betting. I used to parlay a lot when I
28:13
first started getting into sports betting.
28:14
I said man, I never win what's going on here And then I started
28:17
to get better and when I just flat bet.
28:19
But anyway, if that's the case, you want to make my day go by
28:22
the everything Guide to Sports betting and when I see you at
28:24
the book I'm going to buy, I'm going to buy you a beer and I'm
28:26
going to sign it for you. We're going to sweat sharp and
28:28
train plays all night long. Lastly, of course, I mentioned
28:31
rhythm. But the best way to to prove to
28:34
you that Rhythm is awesome when it comes to data-driven AI
28:37
backed pics and props, it is to continue to cite them and have
28:40
them win on the pod. So that's that's the best
28:42
promotion you can do. But seriously guys, if you
28:44
haven't done it yet, I want you to go create a free rhythm
28:47
account. You can just go.
28:48
If you're on Spotify, click the bio.
28:50
The description of this pod, it's there should be a link
28:53
there to sign up with rhythm or make it easy.
28:56
Follow me on Twitter at Josh, under score Insights, my pin
28:59
tweet at the top of my page, or the tweet that I put out a
29:02
little bit earlier today mentioning Max Drew so you can
29:05
click that custom link. Make sure it's that custom link
29:07
because I want Rhythm to know that I refer to you and we will
29:11
start making sharp bets together.
29:12
But my guy Gary Garrison, I know enjoys rhythm.
29:16
But Rhythm is it takes you a little bit to kind of get used
29:19
to it and then once you once you kind of get it, something clicks
29:22
and you start to really take advantage.
29:23
So let's see if we can cash our over with Nas Reed tonight.
29:27
But again, go sign up and give Rhythm a shot.
29:30
But that about does it, guys. For episode 29.
29:33
Another pod here in the books. Two days closer.
29:36
Or, you know, two days away from the NFL draft, I should say.
29:39
But anyway, my parting words, as always, Whether I see you at the
29:43
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
29:46
Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
29:49
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
29:52
Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the woods in
29:54
Massachusetts. They're out in the desert where
29:56
the true grinders get down, Where Billy Walters sends his
29:59
number Runners where the lowest choose possible is found at the
30:01
South Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays at stadium
30:05
swim. Jumping in the pool at circa,
30:07
getting a victory burger. At the end of the night,
30:09
wherever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
30:11
and you're going to show me some nice tickets from last night.
30:13
Show me a Baltimore Orioles ticket, a Toronto Blue Jays
30:16
ticket, a Philadelphia Phillies ticket, but most of all, a Max
30:19
struce over 13 1/2 points and rebounds ticket.
30:23
Thank you once again to rhythm. And guess what?
30:25
First one's on me, next one's on you.
30:27
We're going to post about the book and sweat.
30:28
Sharp can train plays all night long.
30:31
So wish you the best of luck. Everyone.
30:33
Stay sharp, Stay contrarian, Bet against the public, Place
30:35
yourself on the side of the house.
30:37
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
30:39
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
30:41
If you haven't realized yet, betting is hard, but when you're
30:44
winning, it gives you some confidence.
30:46
When you're down, it gives you perspective.
30:47
I always kind of mention that. So for after a couple good days,
30:51
our challenge is to continue to have another winning day.
30:53
But if we can find that sweet spot games that fit our model
30:56
against the public with the house, with the pros flat bet,
30:59
avoid parlays and get some closing line value.
31:01
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors
31:04
long term, So enjoy the sweats, everyone.
31:06
Have a great Tuesday night And hey, we're two days away from
31:10
the draft. I can't wait.
31:11
Should be a lot of line movement between now and Thursday, so
31:14
I'll keep you updated on tomorrow's pod, which will be
31:17
episode 30 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered
31:21
by Rhythm. Have a great night everyone.
31:23
Good luck and let's cash some tickets.