Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Buy/Sell/Hold 2026 Bowman Chrome - Episode 3
Transcript
- Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined as always by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly, known as JGB, underscore cards underscore. And today we are back. I believe that this is our third installment of Buy Sell Hold for 2026 Bowman Chrome. It's a little hard to believe that tomorrow will be four weeks since the product was released. I think it that Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: that first month is such a whirlwind, especially the first like two weeks. You know, you're really drinking out of a fire hose on eBay, you know, trying to not miss anything, keep up with snipes. but the dust is starting to settle for sure. we'll have some more price updates like we do weekly tomorrow. That's kind of just our Wednesday thing now. so we'll get more into the pricing, but you know, I was looking through stuff today, it seems that things are starting to settle. with that being said, we'll get right into it here. Jeremy, who's our buy? Jheremy: The bye, and it's gonna bring a a smile to your face, is Wielder Dalis. I mean, he was just named what first team, second base, all I L B. He You have guys like Azakart 28 and change, Jaden Law Lowray, 28 and change, Sebastian Dos Santos, 28 and change, and you have Wielder who did everything he did across the couple levels he played in last year at 1786 for a base auto average. Like of those four, he also has the lowest volume of only 79 sales. But still, like, I don't know, is it because he was in 26 Bowman? People don't want to chase him for the second time, even though this is the first time it's won an auto to actually him on the card. I don't know if that plays into it at all. But you look at him like just statistically with what he's done, his what he put up offensively. He did it in a hundred less at bats and azucar, a couple more than Low Ray. Couple more than dos Santos. He's got nineteen home runs, which is second most behind Azakar, who again he has a hundred less at bats and only two less home runs. twenty-seven bags is the second most behind Sebastian Dos Santos is twenty-eight with his twenty-seven. You just look at everything across the board. He had three ten with with a nine eighty-three OPS. Like his ISO was a two sixty-four. You look at everybody else. The the ISO just isn't there. Like 269 is the closest one from Azucar. The other two are sub two hundred. And I just you continue to look at the tools, the performance, and it doesn't add up to the grade. Again, does a 26 Bowman add into it being a repeat guy? I'm gonna say no. Because you have Andy Azakar in the same breath of the same talking points who has the same thing. He has Red Sox on his photos, so maybe that helps people who don't know he was traded. Whereas Wielder is a Colorado Rocky. We know their market isn't great, but they did have the pump with Ethan Holliday out of 26 Bowman. Wielder here. so I mean, for what? What do we say? $17.86, I think. Like, you can go buy a base auto, which means the color's not all that far off when you start doing multipliers. I do think. I think we're far enough out now where you can kind of use dolls multipliers from prospect pulse to actually get a real idea of things. and I know you've bought a bunch of his color and the the other Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: stuff, the quote unquote mid tier, like the two ninety nines, even the hundreds, the purples, like they're all really affordable for a prospect who, on the face of it all statistically, is like has a shot to be a top one hundred type guy come next year. Jaba: Yeah. And I'm not gonna come in and beat it to death because I've talked about him so much and you know, part of me didn't want him as the buy. But at a certain point it's like you just have to give the best option and even if we're repeating ourselves, it's just like all the guys we just compared him to, I mean, the numbers are better than Dos Santos and Low Re. Azukar you can make an argument, you know, it's kind of a toss up, but he's also, you know, almost half of what Azakar is. And I think The big thing for me, I think, of with Brito is ever or with Delees, everybody's like, well, it's the Rockies market. You look at Roldi Brito, and his last couple base autos were 40 and 35. So Roldy Brito's doing twice as much. You know, obviously he's on the pipeline top 100, and Delees is not, kind of like we talked about Andrew Fisher yesterday being their prospect of the year not being in the top one hundred, Delees is not on the top one hundred. And I think, you know, Brito, same age, eight sixteen OPS, forty one steals, ten homers at three five, obviously is a different type of player. They are both switch hitters and Brito's kind of more of a contact speed guy. But is you know, if you want to say that the prices are low because of the Rockies, I don't disagree with it. But then you look at Burrito being twice as much, if not a little more, and that's when it kinda doesn't make sense even in the lens of being a Rocky. So I'm fine if he continues to sit down here. I'm happy with it. But you know, I I just think people are gonna people are gonna Jheremy: I guess the one Jaba: be mad next year. People are gonna be really mad. Jheremy: That's a one knock on him. Well, not even a knock, but the like the one, like, yeah, clearly like obvious thing is he is the oldest of the quartet as well. At twenty, turns twenty-one next July. Jaden Lorray turns twenty in February. Sebastian Del Santos is the baby of them all. And Andy Azakar is nineteen turning twenty. So it's not a huge gap. He did make it up to high A. We're not talking about complex league numbers. So there is that Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: with Wielder as well, the age, but he's also like performing, so is what it is. Jaba: Yeah. I I I think that wraps it up well. We're not saying he's necessarily better than the other three, but he's right there with them and he's you know eleven doll all three of them are at twenty eight and change. He's at seventeen and change. I mean you can make arguments, especially for Asgard and Dos Santos, but if those guys are all twenty eight, the lease should be at least twenty five. so I think, you know, there's just a spread there. then we go into kind of a joint buy and sell. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: It's the Milwaukee middle infield duo. We got Ricky Moneys, who's trading just shy of thirty two dollars, and Diego Frontado just shy of fifteen. Now I think that Moneys is the better prospect. I know you've said that I think you were saying people you've talked to like kind of the potential on Monies more. The athleticism. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: But at the same time, Money's is selling for twice as much. Frontado got the bigger bonus, hit twice as many homers as Money's with fewer plate appearances. Money's did have more doubles and triples, but you know, Money's stole twenty-eight bases, frontado stole fifteen. WRC plus frontado had edged out by twelve basis points, one thirty eight to one twenty six. You know, this is another one where we're not saying money's is bad. But frontado shouldn't be half the cost. I'd be curious how much you agree with this. But you know, I just feel like even at the same builds, f there should be less of a gap there. I don't even Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: disagree with my being a little more, but I'd rather have two frontado spaces than one money space. Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I'm guessing there's more to it within the profile of just the face numbers, but you're talking about a pretty sizable Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: gap and you're not like I I was beat I was one to beat the drum of like Luis Peña, Jesus Made shouldn't have been as widely separated as they were. like I th when you look at those profiles, they are different. Long term, full term, close term, any term you wanna look at. for where these two are right now with not even eighteen years old apiece for Being able to get two Diegos for the price of one Ricky probably should close that gap a little bit, but that is a Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: just on the face of it statistically, you wouldn't think they'd be as separated as they are. Jaba: For sure. our hold here is a guy you like talking about, Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: and I think you know more about him, so I'll let you take the hold. Jheremy: It's I I I talked to somebody about this yesterday, right? The the hold is Alex Lodice, but if he were in twenty six or twenty-five draft, like does his stuff get held to a bigger like a higher standard? Like you think of him as like, he's a high round draft pick out of draft, as opposed to like a throw in. He's not a throw in by any means. He's one of the chaser names. But like by being in Bowman Chrome, do people think like he's not a real prospect? I always think about that. Like Logan Dawson from the Phillies. He's a Toolsy high school kid. If you were in draft, you'd be like, okay, like he's got a shot. He's a late round draft pick, but he's in draft, so he's gotta be something decent. Just because he's in chrome now, he's a three dollar auto. Granted, he didn't have the best year. It was just like a psychological thing of like Does the product of which you're in also help dictate like what people think of you as a prospect just without knowing anything? I don't know. I'd be interested what others think. But Alex Low Dice. the only only Brave in the product, the only signer for the Braves, and we know the Braves love their prospects. really good year coming out Jaba: Sure though. Jheremy: of FSU. And I mean he went from A to high A to double A. Something we saw. They they bumped up a lot of their guys. Briggs McKenzie got bumped all the way up from, I believe, Complex up into Rome at high A. We saw what Eric Hartman did. Owen Kerry got promoted out of Rome, both of them from high A to double A. Lodice had 28 home runs, had 75 RBI, 56 extra base, and sold 17 bags. All that's awesome. He's at his $26 base auto right now. At a 214 ISO at an 841 OPS. that said, he's also 22 and a half years old already. what's he gonna do Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: to get to his power? There is some swing and miss within as well. So there are all these like question marks that bring it back down to earth. But still he he's selling at a good clip. He's somebody who's consistently when you see him on whatnot is getting run up into that mid to mid to upper twenties, into the low thirties like pretty damn consistently. So he did have a hundred and forty punch outs this year as a whole over hundred and thirty four games. He had five hundred and thirty seven at bats. he's somebody that you probably should just hold. I wouldn't be selling him I Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: I don't know that I'd be buying him either right now, 'cause there's a chance he does have another dip going into the off season right now. Like if Tate Southesine gets some of his charm back or John Heel gets some of his glow up back. Like you have a a middle infield dilemma there with the Braves, but you also have enough where you could just span him out, you know? Jaba: Yeah. And one one brief note on Alex Lodis. I forget if I said this when we were previewing the product. I actually saw him back in June when he was playing for Augusta against Charleston. I was at the game for a bachelor party, so take it with a grain of salt, although on the flip side of that I don't drink anymore. So at least it wasn't a clouded in person view. I'm also not a scout and I don't pretend to be a scout, but I do watch a lot of baseball. Thing that stands out to me about him, you know, I kind of recognized the last name because of his brother Kyle, and I was like, I didn't realize he was in single A. Realized obviously it was a a younger brother. I'm seeing them listed as six foot one ninety, but I remember him and Connor Essenberg standing out in that game as two guys that were just hitting the lights out of the baseball. Jheremy: Does Jaba: and I I remember because Essenberg had a couple ugly whiffs but hit some balls hard. Lodies Homered, I think he doubled as well. He was just pounding the baseball. Obviously you'd hope he'd be a bit more refined than Essenberg, given the three year age gap and the Jheremy: Right. Jaba: fact that Essenberg Essenberg was a two way guy until the draft, right? Jheremy: Yeah, all the way up through senior year. Jaba: So but Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I mean Essenberg's a popular guy and you know, I'm seeing him as a six foot one ninety, but he he was one of those guys where he goes up there and you're like, Yeah, that's like a well built guy. That that's Jheremy: Right. Jaba: you know, strong guy who's gonna damage baseballs. You know, it's Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: kinda like the Juan Soto thing where he's not particularly large in terms of size, but he gets up there and you're like, Okay, that's that's a guy who can put a charge into one. So I I do remember Lodi's standing out in that game and there were a lot of good players in that game. I mean Cooper Fleming, Essenberg. I know a lot of the I know Taton Gray was out, which was a bummer. But yeah, I I agree with that. I don't think I'm buying at twenty six, but if I got something I wouldn't sell it for twenty six, especially on eBay, or you know, call it an offline sale at twenty bucks. I just wouldn't Jheremy: Right. Jaba: feel good with that, especially like you said, the Braves fans love their guys. the fact that he is their sole guy. you know, I I I just think, you know, this spring they're probably gonna get aggressive with him. Would you say that that's fair given the fact that he's gonna be twenty three in spring? I mean, ended it ended Jheremy: Yeah. Could see him push the envelope a little bit. Jaba: at double, I I mean, we saw last year, like John Heel hit like a double in a spring training game. And I saw like ten different people call him a more physical Raphael for call who Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: You know, I was young when he was playing, but I remember him as being like at least like a fringe all star level guy. So I mean, it's not gonna take much i 'cause he c he can go out there and, you know, hit a one ten exit Velo Homer and everyone's falling all over themselves. And I think, you know, that goes back to one of our bigger takeaways, from the show, like since its inception, is we're kinda buying guys that we think have potential for Bowman's and those guys that just have highlight real ability because, you know, the just solid across the board players don't get a ton of love from the more casual side of the Bowman people. You want the guys with the loud tools, the athleticism, and even if it's a riskier profile, usually in terms of strikeouts, you know, those are the guys, even if they're volatile, they get the, you know, fast booms and that's where you can make quick money. So if he falls below twenty bucks, I think he's definitely a buy. but, you know, until then he's a hold. I'm fine with that. Jheremy: And I'm not gonna hijack this fully, but Kyle Lodice, his cousin with the White Sox, did I mean he's with the White Sox now he's Jaba: Awesome. Jheremy: t he's twenty two, but he had forty two bags, hit twenty pumps, had a hundred and forty one strikeouts, but ninety two walks is here in high A. And you jump over to like like those are solid numbers, right? Like across the board. We know the White Sox do get some love. He just had a popcorn auto sell for fifty dollars, which seems absurd. He had a blue wave Jaba: Yeah, that's insane. Jheremy: auto do five dollars and fifty cents. Like, I'm not turning this into a a family tree type thing. See, and then a peanut did one twenty two. Regardless. Like, you can get some stuff where this is just another maybe buy if you come across them, don't actively seek them out. But like twenty pumps, seventy seven RBIs, and forty two bags this year in twenty twenty six. Like, the hit tool will be a concern, but There's something there Jaba: It Jheremy: with the family too. So Jaba: it it it's funny that it I mean, if you put the stats head to head, it it's almost a carbon copy. Kyle's an inch shorter, ten pounds lighter. You know, who knows how real that is. But yeah, I mean, Alex was twenty eight and seventeen bags, Kyle was twenty and forty two bags, they both strike out way too much, they both hit the ball in the air a lot. Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know Both of them, like you said, just kinda have that fun mold where, you know, I think this has piqued my curiosity. So the Lodies Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Cousins, they were day two did they do day two of the MLB draft the second day now, right? Or was that the Jheremy: Mm. yeah. Jaba: NHL? anyhow, that's a pair of cousins that you know, like Jheremy: No, I think Yeah. Can swing it. Jaba: you said with Kyle. Let me pull up Kyle's base auto. Really quick here, just while we're talking about it. Jheremy: H his last couple were six dollars, then a purple did six eighty eight, a first did fift five dollars and fifty cents, a four ninety nine did three dollars and twenty five cents. Then somebody best Jaba: True Blue lasted twenty two dollars. Jheremy: Right, like it doesn't take a whole lot. I'm not saying again go out and buy some of these, but with his current prices are so cheap. I don't know if people necessarily know the year he put together. He did hit only two thirty, so there again there is real risk of the hit tool. But twenty seventy seven and forty two bags, like not all that don't hate it. Especially if you're walking around a card show and find like a true blue in somebody's table for like twenty bucks because that's last comp, like you could do worse with twenty bucks. Jaba: Yeah, for sure. Jheremy: Not to go off on a tangent of Kyle Lodice, didn't see us getting there, but we did. So here we are. Jaba: Yeah, that that that is quite the not not on the bingo card. I know we like getting on tangents and I I think people like when we do because it's you know, usually relevant guys and at Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: the end of the day we just love talking about this stuff and I think people who listen love hearing it and talking Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: about it. but yeah. No, so that wraps that wraps up this week's buy sell hold. We'll be back tomorrow with our three price check episodes, another AFL wrap-up. It's gonna be a big day. So, Jeremy, it's only one forty right now, but go go get some sleep and we'll Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: we'll talk to all you guys tomorrow. Thanks as always for listening. Appreciate you guys. Go Mats.