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Felix Prehn - Warning: Inflation Data Just Out! 🚀 + Stock Market News 10 October 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: And welcome to this free morning live stream.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: And well, inflation didn't quite do what we wanted it to do, jobless claims didn't quite do what we wanted them to do, and the market isn't particularly happy about it.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Let me run you through the numbers.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Let me show you what the damage looks like.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: So you are the best informed investor out there and you can make a boatload of money, which is really what this is all about, isn't it?
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I thought that's what it was all about.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I feel this may be important.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I think you might be right Our friend there from Nebraska, so I'll share my screen with you.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I'll run you through the data.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: We look at the market.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I'll take your questions.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: That's sort of the idea here.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: So inflation has done it again.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Whoops, I did it again.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: She's back, and she is back at 3.3%, which is higher than the 3.2% we were expecting.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: We were expecting 3.2% and the difference might sound slight, but it is, as you can see here, a bit of an uptick.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean, therefore, it's going to have to go through the roof, but it's sort of a hmm, we didn't really want that, did we?
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: And what it also means is that, yes, you are still getting paid less.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Your real hourly earnings are less than they were in 2020.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: I want to show this chart to your employer and ask for a raise.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: That's what inflation does, by the way, just undermines your purchasing power, which is a horrible thing.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Inflation is probably the worst thing to happen to kind of middle and lower income people, because it just makes them horribly, horribly poorer and therefore it's a horrible, horrible policy to cause inflation.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: Now, at the same time, the brightest minds that work at the Fed are doing what that red line here is what we call M2, if you're a snooty economist like I used to be and it's basically saying we're printing money.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Excuse me, I'm a little bit thirsty.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: The blue line here is inflation, cpi inflation, and you can see that the two have a pretty sort of lovey-dovey relationship.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: You print money, you cause inflation.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: It's very, very simple.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: At the moment, you're printing money, so you're likely to cause inflation.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: So the question, of course, is therefore is inflation going to do this again, and are we therefore in for higher interest rates and more pain and more misery and all that kind of stuff?
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: What does Truflation say?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: That's actually a very, very good question.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: My friend who said that, amy, said that let's have a look at Truflation.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: This is a private, as far as I'm aware, company that tracks gazillion data points to come up with inflation, now compounded inflation since 2020.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Okay, that sounds a little bit like they might be on the Republican side of the ticket, don't you think that's a little bit of what that sounds like?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: If that's the opening screen, so that data point isn't as useful as we'd like it to be.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: They've changed that.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: They used to show us what the actual inflation rate was.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Let's see if it shows us that on the US inflation index.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Let's see if we can pull that up.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: It seems like a bit of a political statement 2%, but look, they're saying it's picking up.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: It was 1.5%, now it's 2%, so the trend is still correct.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Whether it's 2% or 3%, it sort of doesn't really matter, to be honest with you.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: But the trend here is what's worrying?
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: We got that uptick in inflation data.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: But thanks very much, amy, for that suggestion.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Some of you are still getting those bloody ads.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I actually had my Wi-Fi reset today by my telecoms company.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Let's see if that works.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: I hope it is.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: I hope it works.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: If not, we will, I don't know lay a new cable or something.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So a little bit concerning there.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: And of course, the doom and gloom scenario is this the green line here is the 1970s inflation.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: This is the thing that Fed presidents wake up to in cold sweat in the middle of the night thinking of this chart.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And then red is now.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: So we had the mad COVID money printing thing, which of course nobody's acknowledging.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: All the inflation caused this because of money printing.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: It's entirely the Fed's fault, and the question therefore is are they going to do the same stupid thing again and let inflation go through the roof again?
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of Okay, glass not freezing for you, touch wood.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: Now there is a bit more news we need to absorb this morning before we look at some of our favourite stocks, and I'll tell you I've got a new achievement today, which I shall share with you in a moment as well Powell's.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Well, the FOMC minutes were out yesterday and it seems fairly unlikely that we're going to get another big cut, because there were some participants those are Fed presidents observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: So it sort of sounds like they went in and maybe just about the majority pushed for 50 and they all said we'll do it almost unanimously, just to show you that we are, you know, one in spirit.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: But there are a few doubters.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: You look at the higher inflation number.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Now very, very unlikely you're going to get another big rate cut.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: You might even get a skip.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: You might even get a month where they don't cut and that's not really what the market's pricing in and that's bad for stock prices.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Very, very simple, right, right, 50 was probably a little bit much, but it gets a little bit worse.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Just to cheer you up here this morning, everything is terrible.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: The world's about to end.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: You know, bury the children and that sort of thing, that'll be a bit extreme, but Felix told me to do that.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Bury the children, that sort of thing, that would be a bit extreme, but Felix taught me to do that.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So the initial jobless claims here we were expecting about 230,000 people to be freshly virgin unemployed and we got about 258,000 people, which is significantly more.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Well, if you just believe the data I rarely believe the data, but normally the data is cooked to make it look like they are less unemployed because people are trying to get reelected.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: This would basically say to you weak economy.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: So you've got a weak economy and you've got a high inflation.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: That is literally the worst outcome you could ever get.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: That's called stagflation.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: So it's only one data point.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: You know I wouldn't freak out, yet there's no really need to do that.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: You know, if you're in Florida, stay indoors.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: It's still worth it.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: Yes, but it's just something we got to watch, we got to monitor that inflation is ticked up from what we were expecting it to be.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: It's increased slightly from last month on an annualized basis.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: So you know, yeah, that's kind of the concern here.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Youtube doesn't like me, that's quite possible.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So what do we do about it?
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Look, we kind of just make money.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: That's kind of the intention.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: So you know, we made so far this year $28,000, a bit more than that on a $30,000 portfolio.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: That's our teaching portfolio.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: That is about 94%.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: You want to learn how we do that?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Come and join me on Tuesday evening at 8pm New York time at felixfrenzelogcom the link's down below in the description and it's a free beginner bootcamp and I'll share with you our strategies and we'll have some fun.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: So if you're interested or not, check that out Now.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: No other news today.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: The end stream ends here, I'm kidding.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Day the end stream ends here, I'm kidding.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: This is the reaction on the S&P 8.30.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Here is when the data came out and we're now trading a little bit down, not horribly down, but a little bit down, couple of points down.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: We look at, say, qqq the good old NASDAQ, by the way in Trade Vision, nasdaq.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: By the way in Trade Vision, we now have five-minute charts, which is cool if they load when they load, and the one-minute charts coming up soon as well.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: I've seen it in the staging today.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So we were at $4.92, now we're at $4.90.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: It's not the end of the world again, is it?
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: But it's definitely that.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Ooh, feeling a little bit worried about that If we look at the guys that make the market, like NVIDIA, milton, creating inflation, so NVIDIA seems.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I don't have pre-market data.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Oh, no, no, no, we were weird lack of data there, but we're down here at 131.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: I don't have pre-market date oh, no, no, no, we were weird Lack of data there, but we're down here at 1.31.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: So we've definitely dropped.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Let me pull up a chart that will show you that.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Hang on, let me actually take a screenshot and see why do we have no data?
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: And we'll fix that, hopefully by tomorrow.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: If you didn't realize yet, trade vision is something that we built, hence my mumbling to myself when things don't work, which happens.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: So NVIDIA, here on a minute chart.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you see, the inflation data came in.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: We're at 132.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Now we're at 131.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Again, not the end of the world, but we still.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: We lost a dollar, which isn't marvelous.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: We're down 0.7% now.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Pre-market Tesla still looked green when I just looked Yep, still 0.6% up, but still losing a bit on the inflation thingy-majiggy there.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Some of our other favorite tech stocks, like Palantir, some of our other favorite tech stocks like Palantir, also down half a point.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: Sofi, big beneficiary of rate cuts, is down 1.3%.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So the more rate sensitive the beast, the more it's going to be affected.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Today Stan says I blame Chalula.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Are you serious?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Where did she go?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Oh no, she's escaped.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Chalula is absolutely innocent.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Katja hello there in Sydney, appreciate you tuning in for more than 12 months.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: That's a nice little tag there you got next to your name.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Do you think the weak dollar has added to inflation?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, it will moderately, it will moderately, but I don't think it's that big a deal.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: I think if you look at inflation.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: I think it's mostly if I remember correctly, it's car insurance.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: I think it's medical expenses or medical insurance.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's the main culprit of the inflation data this morning.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: So I don't think it's really the imports all that much.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Anders says you're not getting emails on the new algo.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks very much for that, anders.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: We'll fix that for you.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: I get them, I believe, but I will double check it.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I appreciate any feedback on our little software because that's how we make it better right and that's why it's important that we use it, and I appreciate you guys shouting stuff out.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: We did have a bias signal on Apple yesterday, I think, although it's been a bit of a ziggity-zaggity thing there, right in and out and in and out Still looks pretty good at 229, but it sort of still needs to take out the 233 here and the 234.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Although our little algorithm has been pretty good, hasn't it?
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: It's more than doubled the buy and hold return since the beginning of 22 with just buying it when it says green, buy it.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: But it struggled a little bit here with the sideways action.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: I think I'd wait a little bit.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: I'd probably wait till we either get a lot of volume and break through 233, or we just break through 234 AD up here.